Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-3/26 Nintendo Direct Reactions pre-Crypto

Mii Costume: Quote x155
Reporter & Wrestler x130
[Rerate] Paper Mario x130
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Ryo Hazuki x115
Gex x110
Big Daddy (BioShock) x110

100 - 51

Segata Sanshiro x100
Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x85
Gnar (League of Legends) x85
Decidueye x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x75
Falinks x72
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Alucard (Castlevania) x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x40
Sirfetch'd x40
Concept: New Zelda character x37
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Terra Branford x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: Contra rep x25
Minato Arisato x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x20
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Zeraora x15
Concept: Level-5 rep x15
Concept: Returning stages x13
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Ahri (League of Legends) x10
Lora and Jin x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
[Rerate] Professor Layton x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Paper Mario ties with Reporter & Wrestler for second place. Ryo Hazuki passes Gex and ties with Mii Costume: Hollow Knight in fourth place, while Big Daddy dukes it out with the aforementioned gecko.

Contra rep and Minato Arisato shoot their way out of the under 25 club.

Today's new challenger is a rerate of Professor Layton, with 5 noms.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Crypto:

Chance: 5%
Haven't really seen that much demand for him. Neither does his game have much Japanese presence.

Want: 1%

No attachment to this series, and no desire to see him in Smash. Not even anywhere near my Top 100 most wanted.

Noms: Terra Branford x2
Rerate Layton x3

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining, haven't played DAH, though I have heard of it prior to.this.
Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Abstaining completely, as I've never played Destroy All Humans, and I won't have enough time to research today.

Predictions
Octopath rep: 5.38%

Nominations
Ahri x 5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today, since I have little knowledge of the Destroy All Humans series. Though I just don't see it as likely based on what I've read. Lack of recency and little presence in Japan make for a very bad mix.

Nominations:
Gex x5

Predictions:
Octopath Rep - 3.48%

 

[DaUsername]

I'm Not Saying It's Aliens, But It's Aliens
Chance: 0.01%
I highly doubt Nintendo/Sakurai ever even considered this character at any point, same goes for any THQN franchise, really. Destroy All Humans isn't really that big of a franchise, either, but we'll see if the remake changes that.
Want: N/A
Octopath prediction: 8.88%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

Also, you can't have a Destroy All Humans music post without posting this:

 

[Calamitas]

Destroy their chances

Chance: 0%
This is pretty much the same situation as it was with this blob character recently. An older series with no strong ties to Nintendo, and its only claim to relevancy being a remake. I think it's pretty safe to say that this one ain't happening, especially since I doubt that this series has much of a presence in Japan.

Want: Abstain
Never played it, don't know much about it. Can't really say anything else.

Predicting an Octopath Traveler rep to get 8.8888888%,

Nomating Concept: New Zelda character x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Octopath Traveler rep.

Predict Carmen Sandiego from the Carmen Sandiego series.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Octopath Traveler mood:

Spoiler: Octopath Traveler Music

 

[Perkilator]

Doc Ock from Spider-Path
Abstain here as well. I’ve heard some good things about Octopath, but never cared enough to try it out for myself.

Carmen Sandiego: 0%

Noms: Sirfetch’d x5

 

[Cadillac]

Abstain. No joke, I thought this game was about an octopus traveling.

Carmen Sandiego: 2.3%

Noms: Hornet(Hollow Knight) x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain. No joke, I thought this game was about an octopus traveling.

That reminds me; without sounding demanding, some people might not know some of the characters we’re rating. Would it be okay for some flavor text describing who each character we rate is?

 

[3DSNinja]

New RPG:

Chance:0%: Almost certainly too recent and also a square character. When we have Geno, Sepiroth, Crono, and Neku. Yeah, I don't see it happening.
Want:75%: I did like Octopath, it was a very good RPG. BUT... I would prefer Geno, Crono, or Neku as a Square character. There could be some cool stuff with this character though.

Nominations: Minato Arisato x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

I hope nobody was planning on nominating one of the new characters from Animal Crossing: New Horizons. We have another Spirit Event.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[NintenRob]

I own Octopath Traveller, but I didn't play much, maybe I'll give it another go, but eh.


Chance: 1%
Look there's 8 different characters, and none really outshine the other. It doesn't help matters that it's just one square game. If we're looking for a Nintendo Square RPG character, I think someone from Bravely Default is more likely.

Want: 0%
None of the character designs really stood out to me so there's no appeal there. And as far as Square characters go, I'd prefer Lara Croft.


Carmen Sandiego, finally
Prediction 0.5% yeah it'll be low, but it's higher than 0. But I'm more interested in the want score. I hope people really think about this.


Nominate someone who is not the star of their own game x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Octopath Traveler rep

Abstain. Never played the game.

Prediction: Carmen Sandiego - 5%

Noms: Concept: Contra rep x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

double posted. delete this

 

[Sari]

Octopath Traveler Character

Chance: 1%
Way too recent Square Enix title. I just don't see Sakurai/Nintendo going for this game when there are a ton of other more popular Square Enix series out there.

Want: Abstain
Never got around to buying Octopath Traveler so I won't comment.

Carmen chance prediction: 3.02%

Nominations:
Ok so now that Quote is pretty much locked into the schedule I'm finally gonna start voting for something else. That being...

Axel Stone (Streets of Rage) x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Octopath rep
Chance: 10%
I have my doubts about this pick. It's a square character, so thats already an issue. And we have another Square Enix RPG rep that is a lot more wanted in Geno. Probably not happening

Want: 80%
Octopath is a fun game. Really long, but fun. None of the main characters absolutely suck either which is nice.

Predict: Carmen 4%

Noms: Gnar x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Octopath Rep

Chance 2 - Is a pretty recent title and not nearly as big or wanted as a lot of the other speculated reps from SE. Also, I haven't played the game so I don't know for sure, but isn't the game about 8 very different characters who all do different things? If so then I really can't see this happening since there's not really one pick better than the other and they can't be Bowser Jr'd either

Abstaining on want because I really don't know enough here

Predictions
Carmen Sandiego - .13%
Big Daddy x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Tom Nook, if anybody was nomming him, would probably get extremely low scores now.

Anyway, Squidward Lane Mover

Chance: 8%, that's 1% per possible newcomer assuming that there's not a clear frontrunner. Besides the obvious competition thing (both with other Squeenix reps, and with themselves), Octopath Traveler is an extremely recent intellectual property and not necessarily a proven one. I don't think Nintendo would bank on it right now.

Want: I'll leave this to the fans, or the people more knowledgeable than me. Abstain. I will note that I'd rather have other Squeenix characters.

Paper Mario x 5. Carmen Sandiego should not break 4%, and I expect her to do around 2.45%.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Awww maaaan, I forgot to bring an Octopath! This is embarrasing
Chance: 4%
There are eight protagonists to pick from, all of equal importance to my knowledge. The game doesn't seem to have its own face, making every one of its characters kinda niche and not very recognizable. Octopath Traveler itself might also be too recent and lacked the impact of other Square properties, Making competition a big problem.

Want: Abstaing, again I haven't played Octopath Trave-

Carmen: 1.64%
Alucard x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

So, Octopath Traveler. The Switch-exclusive (for a while) RPG that burst into the scene and defied all expectations. It received great reviews and sold like crazy - over 2 million sold, and for a while there stock was very scarce. For comparison, that's more than any game in the Xenoblade series, and this is a new IP with nowhere near the budget. It's probable that it was this game's success that led to Bravely Default II's production (the games are all made by the same producer, and previous Bravely games didn't sell nearly as much). I think a sequel's basically guaranteed and given Nintendo's strong role (they published the game outside of Japan), it'll probably follow suit as a timed Switch exclusive, and receive the royal treatment as far as advertising goes.

Now, will this translate into a Smash character? Ehhh, I really don't see it. I heavily disagree with how most of this thread is downplaying this game, it's a big deal, and it's probably in Nintendo's best interests to strike while the iron is hot - it's definitely not too recent, for Christ's sake Byleth is in the game. But who would represent the game?

The whole shtick is that there's 8 playable characters of equal importance whose paths cross. So I can't really say there's a main character. Furthermore, from conconting potions, to fighting with monsters, every character functions very differently from each other. You can't Hero these guys. Theoretically you could have them as a Pokemon Trainer-esque team - if they're portrayed as 2D sprites, that might lessen the work enough to have the 8 - but that would be such a lame way to do it.

I guess, hypothetically, they could pick Primrose or Olberic and just make that the de facto main character of the game. Those two were the ones in the first demo, after all. Probably Primrose, as Olberic is just big guy with big sword while Primrose is at least a dancer who fights with daggers and black magic. It wouldn't be unprecedented; Octopath's inspiration is Final Fantasy VI, after all, and it was only until later on that Terra was retroactively chosen as its main protagonist. But I think it's a long shot, hence the 1% - it just wouldn't be great representation of the game.

As such, Octopath Traveler is on my list of games that could, by merit, get a character in Smash, but can't because of the infeasibility of a single moveset (along with Undertale). It's a bummer because I really love this game, and honestly any of the characters in it would be great to have in Smash (except Alfyn he can do eat a rock). The game does merit a character, but it would probably be poor representation so it would all sadly be a mixed bag. I'd love to see a Spirit Event though, that'd be nice.

Chance: 1%
Want: abstain (I've been abstaining too much lately, I don't like it)

Noms: Ryo Hazuki x5
Carmen Sandiego prediction: Honestly this one could go either way, but I'll go with 5.68%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Crypto pre-Concept: Octopath Traveler rep

Mii Costume: Quote x160
[Rerate] Paper Mario x135
Reporter & Wrestler x130
Ryo Hazuki x120
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x115
Big Daddy (BioShock) x115

150 - 101

Segata Sanshiro x105

100 - 51

Chun-Li x90
Bubsy x90
Gnar (League of Legends) x90
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x85
Decidueye x78
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x75
Falinks x72
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x70
Meowth x69
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Darksiders rep x60
Alucard (Castlevania) x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x45
Sirfetch'd x45
Concept: New Zelda character x44
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game x35
Terra Branford x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x33
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Kratos x30
Concept: Contra rep x30
Minato Arisato x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x27
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x25

Under 25

Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x21
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x20
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x16
Concept: Returning stages x16
Zeraora x15
Concept: Level-5 rep x15
Ahri (League of Legends) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Black Shadow x8
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Otto Matic x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
3 Mage Sisters x2

Paper Mario slides past Reporter & Wrestler and right into second place. Ryo Hazuki defeats Mii Costume: Hollow Knight and ends the day in fourth place, while the Knight's costume ties for fifth against Gex and Big Daddy.

Segata Sanshiro is now over 100 noms. セガサターン,　シロ！

Alucard flies past 50 noms.

[Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep reaches 25 noms.

 

[BowserKing]

Octopath Rep

Chance: 10%. It seems like a fun choice for a new rep. The question is who however, and either way, competition would be fierce against them, enough for them to not get in this game. However, we seen stranger characters get in before, and who knows, there is a possibility for them for them to be in this game.

Want: 50%. While I'm not too familiar with this game, the characters could be fun to play as. Ans if they get in, more knowledge about that game would be memorised. They have some potential to be in this game too, but since I don't know too much about it, I will stop it right there.

Prediction: Carmen (10%)

Noms: 2 for Decidueye and 3 for New Zelda Rep

 

[clearandsweet]

Octopath Traveler

Loved this game. Doing the Runeblade boss while severely underleveled was some of the most fun I've had in games in years. The art style and gameplay with the weakness system and how they played with that were top notch, and I'd love to see this expanded upon.

The story structure and repetitive structure of each chapter's progression were kind of grating, but the core is there. It could _definitely_ be a bigger franchise and a sequel could slough off the rough edges.

But Squenix did Bravely Default 2? Like Octopath with ****ty art, bad character design, extremely similar but substantially worse gameplay and bubblegum tone? Trash. Really dissatisfied with that.

IRREGARDLESS

They could do something really neat with this character. I'm thinking keep the pixel art with a real Game and Watch vibe and make them switch out and between characters for different attacks. I think the only thing that these guys have going for them is the timeframe of when the DLC was decided, Squenix surely being happy with Hero, and Sakurai saying he's gonna get real weird with FP2. I really don't think that Sakurai would just include one traveler in a standard way at all.

OCTOPATH TRAVELERS

Chances - 1%

Want - 90%

 

[warpenguin55]

Lol guys why am I the only one without a crash pic?

 

[DaUsername]

Abstaining from Octopath.
Carmen prediction: 2%
Crash prediction: 100%
Noms: Gen 8 Pokemon x5

Lol guys why am I the only one without a crash pic?

There was supposed to be one, but it Crashed.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Kazuma Kiryu
38.46% Chance - 66.17% Want
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with a precise 38.00%

The Blob
1.14% Chance - 28.88% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 1.21%

Crypto
2.67% Chance - 27.63% Want
Winner of predictions was warpenguin55 with a precise 3.00%

Extra noms

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 15
DaUsername 57
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 43
Icedragonadam 10
NintenRob 110
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 10
Perkilator 5
Sari 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Troykv 15
warpenguin55 15
Wunderwaft 10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I never played Octopath.

Nominations: [Rerate] Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Octopath rep

Chance: 0%
The game was rather successful but Square Enix has better candidates... including Bravely Default. The other biggest issue is the lack of a true "face" of the game. Primrose was one of only 2 playable characters in the very first demo and the more popular one... yet even then, one could hardly call her the face of the game. As for what a rep could bring... Bravely Default does the exact same and more. Both feature the Brave system, but Bravely Default started it and has a new entry this year which is generating quite some hype. Not to mention that again, Square Enix has bigger, better candidates to offer.

Want: 0%
Good game, but for a Smash rep, Bravely Default would give us the same and more. Besides, other than the Brave system, Octopath doesn't have much else that's unique in terms of battle mechanics. I'd rather have someone I'm truly interested in.

Predictions: Carmen - 1.1%

Nominations: Junko & Monokuma x5 (+10, using my extra om nom nom noms)

 

[Ridrool64]

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%) and Deep Red is below that, Pipe Dream. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

By chance:

Spoiler: Chance Totals

1. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
2. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
3. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
4. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
5. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
6. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance
7. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
8. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
9. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
10. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tekken) Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
11. 2B: 35.41% Chance
12. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
13. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
14. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance - Likeliest first party
15. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
16. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
17. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series
18. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
19. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
20. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
21. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
22. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
23. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
24. Rex: 17.52% Chance
25. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
26. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
27. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
28. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
29. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
30. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
31. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
32. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
33. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
34. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
35. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
36. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance - "Most likely" non-Fighter concept
37. Elma: 6.48% Chance
38. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
39. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
40. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
41. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
42. Midna: 4.33% Chance
43. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
44. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
45. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
46. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
47. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
48. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
49. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance - Least likely character from a repped series, least likely first/second party
50. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
51. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance - Least likely character

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

By want:

Spoiler: Want Totals

1. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted character
2. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
3. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want - Most wanted first party, most wanted Japanese character, most wanted from a repped series
4. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
5. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
6. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want
7. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
8. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
9. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
10. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
11. Dante: 64.23% Want
12. 2B: 64.09% Want
13. Geno: 62.93% Want
14. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
15. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
16. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
17. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
18. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
19. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
20. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
21. Midna: 57.17% Want
22. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
23. Sora: 54.44% Want
24. Shantae: 54.28% Want
25. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
26. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
27. Rayman: 52.35% Want
28. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
29. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
30. Rex: 50.95% Want
31. The Knight: 50.12% Want
32. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
33. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
34. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
35. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
36. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
37. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
38. The Blob: 28.88% Want
39. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
40. Crypto: 27.63% Want
41. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
42. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
43. Thrall: 26.50% Want
44. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
45. Tracer: 22.73% Want
46. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
47. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
48. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
49. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
50. Urshifu: 16.46% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy and Warframe reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview

Takeaways: Kiryu did surprisingly well for a character of his status, and overall takes the spot of the most wanted SEGA rep, though his lead on Arle probably won't be half as significant as his lead on the ones in the nominations list. He got very close to beating her in chance, too, but she's still SEGA's frontrunner. And, meanwhile, Crypto and de Blob didn't do half as well.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Octopath Traveller Rep

Chance: 2% - It could certainly happen. The game exceeded expectations and was a timed Switch exclusive. However this doesn't translate well to smash success. Like people have said, eight characters with no concrete face makes it difficult to choose a representative. Also despite having fans, there isn't huge demand in regards to Smash inclusion. The big kicker, though, would be it's position as a Square Enix rep. Possibly the most competitive catagory in Smash speculation, it has some major fan favorites to contend with like Sora and Geno, along with many more Square Enix characters with major fan demand.

Want: 5% - I have little experience with the game, but while it has merits, there are other Square Enix characters I'd much rather see, such as Gex, Geno, and Sora. Furthermore, JRPGs got a lot of love in the last pass so I'd like to see some other genres get some time in the spotlight. It'd make for a great spirit event, though!


Nominations:
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) x5

Predictions:
Carmen Sandiego - 7.39%

 

[Perkilator]

…Is it okay if we Carmen Sandiego tomorrow?

 

[amageish]

1. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
2. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character, likeliest third party

Unless I missed some major IP acquisition news, shouldn't Ryu be both the likeliest character and the likeliest third party?

Octopath Traveller

Chance: 3%. While Square has more popular IPs in spades, Square Enix is known for being finicky with its collaborations and are often reported as being confused by the idea of non-recent games being repped (ex/ the idea that they scoffed at PlayStation All-Stars wanting Cloud over Lightning, before pulling out from the crossover entirely). Depending on when the DLC was being planned, I can imagine an Octopath rep being considered, as the game sold very well as a timed Switch exclusive. The problem of picking a character to mechanically represent a game all about controlling eight unique characters.... that would be a tough needle to thread, but, as Sakurai said, he's never rejected a character for not being able to function conceptually.

Want: 80%. I played like 30 hours of Octopath and was really loving it, but then I just... dropped it. Frankly, I don't even know why... The music is great, the art-style was great, the world-building seemed great... It should be the type of world I love and the type of franchise I would want to see in Smash Bros, but something is just stopping it from getting the oomph for me. If it gets in, then Ophilia was my favourite character both moveset-wise and story-wise...

Nominations: Any Level-5 Rep x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Octopath traveler rep

Chance - 1% - Octopath was a successful game with a decent amount of acclaim. However, not only do they have to compete with Square Enix, one which has had a history of being stingy, but also overloaded on competition. I think they would choose a franchise a bit more established, like Bravely Default, over a franchise that hasn't even gotten a sequel.

Want - 50% - I here it's a good game, but I have yet to play an RPG where I liked it enough to play it to the end. I'll hold my reservations on whoever it might be until I see them in action.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi rep X5

 

[Ridrool64]

Unless I missed some major IP acquisition news, shouldn't Ryu be both the likeliest character and the likeliest third party?

I, uh, goofed.

I also have another character pinned as the likeliest first party. Which means Hayabusa is now neither first nor third party. He transcends such categories.

In reality, I think I had something else pinned there and completely zoned out. It never happened.

 

[GoodGrief741]

…Is it okay if we Carmen Sandiego tomorrow?

We are supposed to Carmen Sandiego tomorrow, yes.

 

[Ninjaed]

We are supposed to Carmen Sandiego tomorrow, yes.

I see Carmen Sandiego a word in that sentence.

 

[Calamitas]

I got no joke this time, I just really love this game

Chance: 8%
Okay, for the past couple of days, I've mostly been pushing this rating myself. . . but even so, I don't really see this happening. Octopath was one of the games that were unveiled during the Switch's initial reveal presentation, and sold very well, cementing itself as a fundamental Switch title (even if it got ports later). But the fact that it is owned by Square Enix puts it in competition with pretty much every major IP they have except for Final Fantasy - and those pretty much all have a better shot. Even another Final Fantasy rep has a better chance. And this isn't even getting into the issues that a character for the game faces in adaptation: Who do you pick? Do you put all travelers into one character slot? Or do you give one preferential treatment? How do you translate them? Do you maintain the game's art style by having them be a 2D fighter, or do you give them a 3D model? It's just way too many issues.

Want: 80%
Whether it's an exclusive or not, Octopath Traveler is maybe my favourite Switch game so far, and definitely my favourite RPG on the console (though it helps that its main competitors for me, Pokémon Sword/Shield and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 have. . . issues, to put it lightly). I'd love to see the game get representation in Smash, though I'm not entirely sure who I'd even want the character to be, since I like all eight of them. My personal frontrunners would probably be my daughter Tressa or H'aanit, but I wouldn't mind seeing any of the others, either. My biggest hang-up with the idea of Octopath Traveler content in Smash though is that pretty much all of my favourite songs from the game, like the Riverlands are calm overworld themes, which really wouldn't fit into Smash.

Predicting Carmen Sandiego to get around 1.23%

Nominating A New Zelda Character x5.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Carmen Sandiego from the Carmen Sandiego series.

And yes, despite appearing in tons of different media such as various cartoons and such, Carmen is indeed a video game character since she started out as one and still had games coming out over the past 30 years or so. Whether Carmen's role in other media overshadows her video game origins is up to you to decide, but any ratings that say she isn't a video game character will automatically be ignored.

Predict Travis Touchdown from the No More Heroes series.

Today is the last day you can use noms to affect the top 7 before they get locked into the schedule so use them wisely.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Carmen Sandiego mood:

Spoiler: Carmen Sandiego Music

I cheated a bit by posting two of her cartoon themes simply because they are more recognizable and catchier than the tunes from her actual games.