Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RouffWestie]

Adeleine
Chance: 0%
Shes a fairly popular character and was requested somewhat, but there's never been much in her favor. The only thing that's really notable about her is that Kirby fans really wanted her to make a comeback in the franchise. I think her getting in Star Allies is as much recognition as she's going get in any official Nintendo games for the next decade.

Want: 100%
Kirby 64 was one of the defining games of my childhood, right next to Banjo-Kazooie so yeah I'd buy her in a heartbeat. I think I'd be fine with any Kirby character. It's a franchise that's got hundreds of fun and distinct characters with their own unique abilities. I think she's a natural fit for Smash.

 

[Deleted member]

Adeleine

Chance: 0.1%

People will look at having no spirit in Smash as a silver lining to Adeleine becoming playable in Smash, but that doesn't really mean anything. It's implied Sakurai is looking to add characters from unrepresented franchises or even new installments of franchises already in Smash, and unfortunately for her, I can't see Adeleine being in Smash since she isn't a brand new character to the Kirby series and isn't really as popular as Bandana Dee.

Want: 11%

I guess a painter would be alright for Smash, but we already have Vincent I've never played a Kirby game and don't know who she is nor does she click with me for DLC. She'll have to rely on a good trailer for me to think she's cool, but that's all I have to say about that.
---------------------
Predictions:
Gene: 2.2%
Another Western Rep: 66%
---------------------
Noms:
Zhao Yun x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Monokuma is listed twice on the standings btw

Thanks, I'll correct that right away.

Edit: wow that's been there since the Rockstar Games day and I never noticed in all this time.

 

[FancySmash]

Paint Roller. I mean Vividria. I mean Ado. I mean Adeleine. Wait, Ado worked too...

Chance: 2%
Just looking at my attempt for a joke with the title, Kirby has a lot of art characters. That's not even including the other drawing sisters (Paintra and Drawcia), or the paint ability obtained very rarely in Super Star. That aside, Adeleine. Adeleine, Adeleine, Adeleine. Well, she's a Kirby character, so that's something. Recent appearance in Star Allies, and no spirit to be seen. So... super likely? Well, no. The front runners of the Kirby crew, Bandana Dee, Magolor, and Marx, also have recent appearances, albeit spirits as well. That said, I think their popularity would more than make up for the slight hit that spirits may or may not deal them. In terms of demand... Adeleine performs OK. She's not a character the entire world is clamoring for, and the three before her certainly have more, but there's still respectable support. As for what Adeleine brings to the table... well, she's a non-Sakurai character. But... Bandana Dee and Magolor also cover that. She's a classic era Kirby character! But Marx has that, and Smash certainly isn't lacking on classic Kirby, believe me. Also, while Adeleine might have returned with Star Allies, we don't know if she's gonna be a mainstay. Characters like her and Marx got recent appearances as fan service. Bandana Dee and Magolor though have been getting prominent appearances, such is in Super Kirby Clash. Tack on my final bits, blah blah 1st party character when only 3rd party has been getting in, blah blah Kirby bias, things don't bode well for her.

Want: 25%
I gotta be honest, even if, and that's a big if, I set my bias for preferring Bandana Dee aside due to main character status... Adeleine still isn't who I'd pick as a character for this game. If I had to pick someone other than Bandana Dee, it'd be Magolor. Look, I don't dislike Adeleine as a character. I played Dreamland 3 when she was Ado, I played Kirby 64, and seeing her in Star Allies was a treat, and of course Brawl in the Family is a delight. It just... doesn't feel deserved. She hasn't been a part of the recent lore building Kirby's been exploring. Modern Kirby is branching out into places classic Kirby never really went, and as a representative of classic Kirby, despite not being a Sakurai character, wouldn't really fulfill me. I also can't shake the feeling of her being similar to... well, it's actually rather like I said yesterday about Crowe. I don't doubt she's popular (heck, in this case, I know Adeleine is popular), but she's just not as iconic to the series as some of the more recent faces like Bandana Dee or Magolor. However, she would be Kirby content that Smash Ultimate... aside from some cosmetic changes, skimped over, so it wouldn't be all bad.

Also... remember, this was the kid who, in Dreamland 3, was defeated simply by Kirby blowing air when she finally decides to stop hiding behind paintings. Actually, considering Bandana Dee's fight in Super Star Ultra, the two seem very similar in that regard, and Star Allies proves that she must've done some training after those events. Shame all that content planned for 64 with the others being playable had to be cut...

Predictions:
Gene: 1%
More Westerners: 33%

Nominations: Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Ninjaed]

That's not even including the other drawing sisters (Paintra and Drawcia)

Drawcia I could see more already, yeah. But even then, I don't think she'd stand much of a chance, would she?

 

[Wunderwaft]

Adeleine

Chance: 2%
She's back in the Kirby series after a long hiatus and she doesn't have an appearance in Smash. Unfortunately for Adeleine the focus with the DLC seems to be focusing more on third party choices, it's extremely unlikely that she'll be picked. Besides the DLC focus, Adeleine also encounters competition from Bandana Waddle Dee, Marx, and Magalor. Adeleine is the type of character that seems like a base roster addition rather than a DLC addition.

Want: 65%
She'd be cool I guess. I liked Kirby 64 and her moveset potential to draw things that come to life seem like an interesting ability if incorporated in Smash. I'm not very interested in the idea of another Kirby character making it to Smash, but that doesn't mean I'm necessarily against it.


Prediction:
Gene 6.3%
Another Western Rep 54.5%

Nomination: Steve x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Guys Ado is her deadname stop calling her that Adeleine

Chance- 12%
Adeleine is in a very strange spot. When it comes to Kirby newcomers, the way I see it, she's not the first choice for any type of slot-filling. Most wanted/fan favorite? That'd go to Bandana Dee, Marx/Magolor would take second, although Marx is a boss. Shill/Marketing pick? Unless we got a new game announced with Adeleine as the main character (or at least as Kirby's main partner or something) then she's nowhere near the best choice for marketing anything. That would, again, go to Bandana Dee. The only conceivable way Adeleine could get in is if we either get more than one Kirby rep (which won't likely happen any time soon) or if Sakurai said "**** it" and put in Adeleine because he hates B. Dee. I don't think either of those situations are very likely.

So... Why did I put 12% instead of like 1%? Because I think Adeleine is practically guaranteed to get in as a mii costume, or at the very least a spirit battle for Bandana Dee's eventual inclusion (I think Bandana Dee is a guarantee, it's just a matter of time in my eyes.) Is that cheating? Eh whatever. Adeleine currently isn't a spirit in the game, but I'm personally in the camp that believes Spirits are meaningless for DLC. I think characters that weren't important enough to be remembered and included as a spirit are not likely to get in at all.

Want: 90%
Adeleine fills so many checkmarks that are extremely important to me for characters I want. She's not my most wanted Kirby rep, let alone my most wanted rep in general, but I would be very happy if she got in... provided B. Dee got in first. In my opinion Kirby is the most consistently good franchise of video games there is. There's not a single Kirby game I would call bad. Adeleine is in one of my favorite Kirby games (KDL3, which I still think is one of the most aesthetically pleasing video games of all time) as well as being one of my favorite partners in Star Allies. Any Kirby representation at all makes me extremely happy, and if it were up to me the series would have at least 7 reps by now.
Also, Adeleine is adorable. Female characters are something that always makes me happy to see in Smash (with one exception...) with how underrepresented they are in the game, and in video games in general. Though, again... Adeleine isn't even my most wanted female character from Kirby. I think she's 10000x more likely than them, but seeing Susie or the Three Mage-Sisters in smash would be way cooler for me personally, though they're way more selfish choices.

As far as what I want most in Smash from Kirby; Bandana Dee > Dark Matter > Gooey > Literally anyone else from Kirby. If I were in charge I would definitely put Adeleine in as the 7th Kirby rep, because she's undebatably more iconic and popular than my weird niche wants from the franchise. I don't think one-off villains from Kirby truly deserve to be playable characters. Especially if Zelda doesn't get them...

Unrelated, but according to the lore, Adeleine is canonically the artist of every single piece of official art from the Kirby series. True story. For this reason I have to give her a 10/10 and the "best girl of all time" award.

Gene prediction: 0.14%

Noms: Any Grass Starter x5

 

[FancySmash]

Drawcia I could see more already, yeah. But even then, I don't think she'd stand much of a chance, would she?

Oh no, none of them would. Out of all of Kirby's artist characters, Adeleine certainly has the best chance. She is the most popular take on paint in Kirby.

 

[3DSNinja]

Adeline:
Chance:10%: Definetly second in line for Kirby representation IMO. she is popular, unique, and covers games that aren't represented well in Smas h.
Want: 100%: I love Kirby 64 and she is the best boss fight of DL3. As well, she could have a really unique moveset that could give us references to the Kirby minibosses. Also, she is just cute. Also more Kirby representation is never a bad thing.
Nominations: Blaze x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Oh no, none of them would. Out of all of Kirby's artist characters, Adeleine certainly has the best chance. She is the most popular take on paint in Kirby.

That's what I thought. Shame, I like Drawcia's design more.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Adeleine

Wow, a Kirby rep that isn't Bandana Dee? Or Marx? Or Gooey? Huh, that's an accomplishment within itself. Regardless, Adeleine has transformed from being a miniboss in Kirby's Dream Land 3, before becoming playable in Kirby 64: the Crystal Shards (only in multiplayer). And, as a true test to see whether you're important to the Kirby franchise, Adeleine also appeared in Star Allies? So, Adeleine has become somewhat of a Kirby staple, appearing in several installments, and was in the second wave of Dream Friends. Is it enough? I think a new Kirby rep is highly likely in the post-Fighters Pass bunch of characters, but I doubt that Adeleine will be high on the list for consideration...

Chance: 2%

Do I want Adeleine? I'm in favor of any Kirby rep, even if Bandana Dee is my priority. An artist moveset could be rather unique, as it's practically a fighterized Vince / Nikki. Her moveset as a Dream Friend was also very inspired, and I'd be perfectly happy if her final moveset was reflective of this. However, I don't think that she's very iconic, and would leave me more confused than excited...

Want: 15%

Nominations: 9-Volt x5
Predictions: Gene (2.4%), Western (21.5%)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining on Adeleine

Untitled Goose x5

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Adeleine:

Chance: abstain

I stopped even trying to understand the logic behind the newcomer picks. One day, Banjo & Kazooie is impossible, the day after, it's a newcomer, and in the meanwhile Piranha Plant becomes a fighter, along with Joker who almost nobody expected. Everything can happen and they are trying to be as unpredictable as possible.
She does not have a spirit, it may mean that she's likely, or that she's so much ignored by the developers that they didn't even care to put a spirit of her in the game.

Want: 100%

My most wanted character since Brawl, way before Star Allies made her popular again. I always supported her and never stopped dreaming of her return (that finally happend, at least in Kirby).
She was supposed to be playable in Kirby 64 (as shown in some beta material) but was removed last minute for some reason, and I always felt like that was a huge missed opportunity.
Kirby's Dream Land 3 is my all time favorite Kirby game, and one of my favorite videogames in general; I think that Adeleine, with her drawings, represents the art style of that game so well, other than being a character in that same game as well... that's the most personal reason for why I want her in Smash, but there is also the fact that she draws other characters (bosses mainly) from the Kirby franchises, and the unique gameplay potential that plays in favor of her. I'm all for pairing her with Ribbon like in Star Allies, if this means more moveset variety.

We don't have a summoner in Smash yet, we have the Inkling who sprays ink everywhere, but no characters fight by doing art, that would be pretty unique and would represent well the crazy universe of Kirby where even a chef can be a warrior.

I support almost every character from Kirby, especially the ones from the Dark Matter Trilogy (Dark Matter, Gooey), but I also like Taranza, and I'm one of the few crazy people who thinks that Chef Kawasaki could be a good pick... but Adeleine has always been my first choice and always will be until they actually put her in.

In the spoiler I put some animations and sketches of Adeleine's possible gameplay (made by me) that I already posted time ago in the Adeleine support thread. I'll probably make more in the future (I don't know when), but I hope the Smash development team beats me at it by making her a playable character in Smash before.

Spoiler

Down attack, Down Smash: this is made to show how Smash attack would differ from regular attacks. Regular attack would be about swinging the paintbrush or other physical attacks, while the Smash attack would feature summoning minions. This animation shows Pon & Con as down smash.

A demonstration of how grabs would work. Different throws would feature different drawings

Regular attacks: the dash attack can be charged, and the charge is represented by the rage animation; she starts when you release the attack button.
The aerial backward attack features Ribbon spinning back with a crystal shard, doing damage with the light of the crystal.

Smash attacks. Adeleine pops out an easel and draws a creature. For the forward smash, depending on how you tilt the analog stick, you will summon a Bronto Burt, a Waddle Dee or a Bouncy. The more you charge the Smash, the bigger/more powerful the summoned enemy will be, but at the same time, it will be slower and travel for a shorter distance; Pon & Con instead will get more minions following (the big ones stun with the first hit and you will get launced only after getting hit by all of them).
Up smash summons a Pacto... but I'm not sure, Pacto also fits for side throw since it can eat and toss you.

Special attacks: Down B, Adeleine can summon a boss and remote control it (only on ground). If you manage to hit the easel where Adeleine is hiding, you can damage her and interrupt the attack, but you can also defeat the boss. this is a defensive move similar to Villager's tree, but you can control it.
Side special is the Crystal Gun. Adeleine floats a bit each time she shoots a crystal (lifted by Ribbon), but you can only throw up to 3 crystals in a row, and the recharging of each single crystal has a cool down, so you can use it as a recovery but it's limited.
Regular special is a wave of paint (inspired by Checkerboard Chase from Kirby 64), and can be charged to travel longer. The paint has similar effects to Inkling's ink (and it also applies to normal moves that feature the paintbrush).
Up special, Adeleine is captured by a star portal into the crystal, and Ribbon controls it like a rocket. The crystal does damage, but can be destroyed (knockback, stun and lots of damage), so you have to be careful and not overuse it (it slowly regenerates with time).
For the final smash, they throw a laser from the crystal similar to what happens in the ending of Kirby 64, or else it can be a summon of Dark Matter, or something else.

Nomination: Blaze the Cat X5 (I don't really know who I should nominate, pretty much a random name I'm familiar with that's on the list).

Prediction: abstain

 

[Icedragonadam]

Adeleine

Chance: 0.01%

She may not be a spirit, but she's from an already represented series even if she has made a comeback. It's clear Sakurai and Nintendo want to make Ultimate the ultimate crossover game and are seeking to expand the roster with new 3rd party series which Adeleine does not.

Want: 50%

I liked her and I'm glad she's back along with Ribbon. But she's someone that fits more as a base roster pick.

Gene Prediction: 0.21%

Western 3rd party characters: 20%

Nominate Sol Badguy x10(forgot I haven't used my extra nom yet)

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Adeline
Chance 20%:Adeline is possible but Considering that she has competition with Banana Dee,Marx and a few other Kirby characters, she's probably not going to be the 4th kirby rep .
Want 40%:She can be interesting choice for a fighter since she can bring stuff to life from her art.
Predictions:Gene 5.50%
Another Western Rep 50%
Nominations:Aloy X5

 

[Sid-cada]

Adeleine

Chance - 0.01% - I don't see it happening at all. She was irrelevant for years, and has major competition with characters that are more relevant and have more support (especially with Bandana Dee being the elephant in the room). With a focus on third parties at the moment, I don't see any room for her right now.

Want - 35% - Bandana Dee is my most wanted new commer. Even then, I would prefer Dark Matter or Magolor before her. While I like her, I don't like her that much, and would be upset if she got in before the others.


Nominations

Farmer X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Jon Kazama
9.09% Chance, 28.15% Want
Winner of predictions was Jomosensual with 8.27%

Velvet Crowe
14.24% Chance, 39.79% Want
Winner of predictions was Ninjaed with 11.30%

The people with extra nominations are:

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 10
Awakining 5
DaUsername 47
Delzethin 5
Icedragonadam 5
Jomosensual 5
Ninjaed 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Ultomato 5

 

[Deleted member]

Adeleine: The other Kirby Rep

Chance: 1%
Most first party characters are unlikely as they're already a spirit and/or don't contribute to the Crossover factor that Sakurai may be going for and Kirby is no way a new franchise to Smash as it's been here for Smash's entire existence. Also as far as choices for a new Kirby Character go I don't see them choosing Adeleine over Bandanna Dee or even Marx and they're unlikely.

Only thing you could really say Adeleine has going for her is that she does not have a Spirit and even then it doesn't really mean they will for sure get in as Porky and Sylux don't have Spirits either. I guess Sakurai could throw us a curveball and that I may be underestimating her chances but until then I don't see any way she could get in, Sorry.

Want: 10%

That said I wouldn't necessarily dislike her getting in even if I may not be invested in her she could have a cool moveset and I like Kirby 64 a lot as it's my first Kirby game. I'd also like for Kirby to get another character be it Bandanna Dee, Marx or Adeleine though my personal preference would be BDee.

Nomination: Concept: First Parties after the Pass x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Gene (God Hand) and Concept: Another Western Character

Predict Kyo Kusanagi

Day will end Friday night at 10:00 pm EST due to it being a double day

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gene God Hand

Chance: 1% - Two big hurdles stand in Gene's way. Firstly, he has a lot of competition from more major Capcom Characters. Phoenix Wright, Resident Evil, Okami, among others have much more demand, relevancy, and popularity. Furthermore, his game is exclusive to the Playstation 2, and while Sakurai could surprise us this DLC was picked by Nintendo, and I highly doubt Gene was on the list.

Want: 0% - I have no familiarity with his game so I can't see myself being too excited about his inclusion. Furthermore he's in inter-company competition with Phoenix Wright, my choice for a Capcom rep.


Comcept - Another Western Rep

Chance: 30% - The inclusion of Banjo-Kazooie has opened up the doors for the potential of other Western characters. Furthermore, several Western companies have shown big support for the Switch or at least have decided to port their games to it, such as Bethesda, Activision-Blizzard, Ubisoft, and many others. After working with Microsoft I'm sure Sakurai has become less worried about the language barrier and become more open to non-Japanese developers. It's even implied that some companies like Bethesda have had some sort of talks, though whether or not it was just said for PR is unknown. Maybe Banjo-Kazooie was a special case but there are a lot of Western characters that are known worldwide that would make for great additions and are as iconic as their Japanese counterparts, and Sakurai knows that. While I don't want to overstate the chances, I think we'll see at least one more Western character during Smash's DLC lineup.

Want: 100% - While it may be unrealistic, several of my most wanted characters are Western and are iconic in their own right. Crash, Dragonborn, Spyro, Gex, Steve, and many others would make for fantastic additions to the roster. Smash is a celebration of video games, and several Western series have either done well or become big in Japan. So I believe that Western characters, have earned their place in the roster.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Kyo Kusanagi - 7.18%

 

[Sari]

Some music to get into the Gene/God Hand mood:

Spoiler

Also here are some songs for some of the more popular/talked about Western characters:

Spoiler

Ratings coming later since I just binged through most of Kill la Kill for the first time (only 2 episodes left).

 

[FancySmash]

As a fighter, he'd probably be unarmed

Chance: 1%
On the off chance that Capcom doesn't pick a Resident Evil or Ace Attorney character, I don't see it being Gene here. This series hasn't had a game in over a decade, and while Smash Ultimate seems to be changing the rules a bit to include characters that might not have had Nintendo appearances, you would have to be really noteworthy for such an inclusion. I don't think Gene is that noteworthy above some other hard hitting Capcom characters.

Want: 0%
Yeah, I know, I've never played God Hand so I really should rate 50% for neutrality. But with only one game in the series, and being from quite some time ago, there isn't a lot of ways for me to experience this series for myself. The overall tone of the series, from what I can tell, also doesn't really speak to me. There are more appealing Capcom characters out there, simply put.

Characters from ye old west

Chance: 50%
Pretty much a coin flip in my opinion. If it doesn't happen for fighter five of this pass, nothing to say it won't happen for DLC past then. With Banjo already breaking the mold, I don't see more characters from the west as an impossibility. Now, as for who it'd be, well, that's the million dollar question, isn't it?

Want: 60%
I'd be... cautiously optimistic about it. To be honest, I'm more of a 1st party person anyways, so most characters I do want come from Nintendo and therefore Japan, but there are others like Rayman and Crash that I'd be happy to see, so sure, why not.

Predictions: Kyo Kusanagi
Yeah, uh, Terry's already got the invite, so... not looking good. 1.36%

Noms:
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[Perkilator]

Not Geno! *&&X%! Not Geno! (Don't ask why I made this reference)
I abstain, since I'm not even remotely familiar with Gene

'Nother Rep from the Wild West
Chance: Abstain (why bother predicting a Smash character's chance at this point, lol)
Want: 80%. Only western reps I'd be truly against at this point are:
-Tracer (Blizzard deserve NOTHING after the Hong Kong fiasco)
-Master Chief (Never been on a Nintendo console, so impossible)
-Scorpion (MK games are banned in Japan, so I'd want to respect Sakurai's wishes if I were deciding the roster with HIS supervision)
Also, Crash is my most wanted western rep so far.

Noms: Rival Pokémon Trainer with different Pokémon x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Gene
Chance: 0%
Gene's kinda dead in the water in terms of his play ability. He'd have to compete with the likes of Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, and Dante/Nero. There's really no reason he would be chosen over them. He's probably got a better shot at making Marvel vs Capcom

Want: 30%
From the quick research I did he sounds pretty cool. I don't have any experience with the character but I don't think I would mind him getting in.

Predictions
Kyo: 1.2%

Noms
League of Legends rep x5

EDIT: Forgot it was a double day

Western Rep
Chance: 40%
Would be higher if Microsoft didn't get their rep. Even with Banjo being here there are some pretty good options on the board. We have some heavily speculated characters like Doom Guy, Rayman, and Crash. We have some esports picks from Overwatch and League of Legends. There are some less likely but still cool picks like Dovahkiin and Spyro. There's more but it's late at night for me and my brain is starting to misfire. There might not be anymore room in the fighters pass but there probably will be some room post fighters pass.

Want: 100%
I'm noming a League of Legends rep. I've played that game forever, of course I'd love more western reps

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 332: Kyo Kusanagi (The King of Fighters)
Day 333: Amaterasu (Ōkami)
Day 334: Zhao Yun (Romance of the Three Kingdoms/Dynasty Warriors)
Day 335: Kratos (God of War)
Day 336: Micaiah (Fire Emblem)
Day 337: Captain Rainbow (Captain Rainbow)
Day 338: Lara Croft (Tomb Raider)

No upsets here, and really not much to talk about, so I'll use this space to recommend everyone play God Hand. It's so good.

Uhh something else I noticed while typing this is that there's a lot of mythological/historical figures in the top 7 (like my patron saint Captain Rainbow). Plus a heavy PlayStation focus.

Also today I learned that Dynasty Warriors is a spin-off of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms games. Who'd have thought?

Your new top seven consists of Farmer, Dragalia Lost rep, Ninten, Blaze the Cat, Rundas, 9-Volt, and Protector.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Adeleine pre-Gene/Concept: Another Western character

Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x133
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x130
Ninten x120
Blaze the Cat x120
Rundas x115
9-Volt x115
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x95
Prince of Persia x90
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x80
Concept: Any grass-type starter x78
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x75
X (Mega Man) x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Papyrus x56
Sol Badguy x55
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Thrall (Warcraft) x50
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x45
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Riesz (Mana) x45
[Rerate] Steve x40
Concept: League of Legends rep x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Sora x35
Ryo Hazuki x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
[Rerate] Geno x25
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x25
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x25

Under 25

Earthworm Jim x21
[Rerate] Dante x17
The Blob (De Blob) x15
Akira Howard x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Quote x12
Chun-Li x11
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x11
Giygas x10
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x10
King Boo x10
Sackboy x10
Urbosa x9
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5

Sol Badguy crosses the 50 nom threshold.

Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass and Ryu Hayabusa sneak out of the under 25 club.

 

[Jomosensual]

Gene
Chance 0 - I don't see it. A new Capcom rep feels so crowded the way it is right now. Phoenix, Ammy, Multiple Resident Evil characters, and Dante/Nero all feel like they're higher on the pecking order. That's a really tough crowd to break through and I'd be pretty surprised if one of those characters or an already repped series like Mega Man or Street Fighter all got passed over for Gene

Want 0 - No real connection to the character and there's too many Capcom reps I'd rather have right now. Don't know enough about the character or series to want them in above so many others right now


Another Western Rep
Chance 50 - With more DLC I might be a little surprised if no more western characters were included. There are a lot of characters that would do good business out there. I think Crash has the best chance and I really think I'd be surprised if he doesn't end up in it. There's also Tracer and Master Chief who would be big inclusions, Shantae and Rayman who was highly requested, Ezio is a bit of an underdog but Assassins Creed is a pretty big deal, and Scorpion or another Mortal Kombat rep would sell well in the west for sure although Japan might be a bit off. And there's even more I didn't mention either. Obviously it depends on the number of characters we're getting but if we're getting a lot eventually it feels like the best money makers left will be from the west.

Want 90 - Yeah, I'm down. There's a lot of characters I'd like from western companies still, mainly Crash, Spyro, an MK rep, and Master Chief. Don't think any of them other than Crash will happen but it would still be cool

Prediction for Kyo: *checks game series* Oh. That's unfortunate. My prediction is 0.50

Noms:
Going to cash in my newfound extra noms today
League of Legends rep x10

 

[Ninjaed]

Gene (God Hand)

Chance: 0%
Not only does he come from a PS2 exclusive, the studio that developed the game is Clover. Also known for Viewtiful Joe and Okami. Add to that God Hand isn't really iconic, popular or anything and you get a character who has absolutely no chance of ever becoming a rep.

Want: 0%
I can't in good faith support characters like Gene when we have tons of other better reps around.


Another Wester Character

Chance: 40%
It's so vague that it encompasses so much... making it hard to actually say anything worthwhile. We do have iconic and popular western characters, some of whom I'm sure no one has even thought about yet. So much to pick from buuut... how many share a history with Nintendo? There are some obviously, but then comes another issue: we'd never had a single western rep until recently. Even sticking only to Japan, there are many more reps to choose from, and Japan tends to like pleasing itself. Fortunately, Sakurai also wants to please fans the world over so it's not actually impossible. I do think however Nintendo will want to attract the Chinese playerbase now, so if we do get a western rep, it might not be what most people expected.

Want: abstain
I'm fairly neutral here. Reps I like from both sides, reps I don't like from both sides. The question is so vague I can't say I want to support the western character until I know who that is... and supporting the inclusion of another western character for the sake of it I can't get behind.

Predictions: Kyo Kusanagi - 1%
I'm pretty sure some people will give him more than 0% even though they shouldn't - we're not getting another SNK rep that soon after Terry.

Nominations: Riesz x5+5 (I won for the first time, yay!)

 

[GoodGrief741]

(Nothing is) Better than God Hand

Chance: 0%
Gene's killing blow is his competition. He stems from a game that's pretty much the epitome of a cult classic, poor sales and all. So Gene doesn't really stack up in sales, popularity or legacy to juggernauts like Ace Attorney or Shinji Mikami's own Resident Evil, not to mention that with the new season come new contenders like Monster Hunter and Devil May Cry. Even without them, fellow Clover characters Amaterasu and Viewtiful Joe have more sales and popularity to back them (though no doubt this is because of having multiple games and being on Nintendo consoles respectively). Gene couldn't even find a spot in Marvel vs. Capcom (though he was considered for 3) so Smash seems like a very, very far cry.

Other than that, I have no doubt Sakurai could make him work; this guy's swimming in movesets and would absolutely be fun to play.

Want: 50%
I love God Hand, with a passion. It's really a one of a kind game and the kind of cult classic I wish could be Earthbound levels of recognized - though it might be inching there. So I'd be ecstatic to see Gene and God Hand get any kind of recognition.

However, for me the 'shoulds' play a big part in the 'wants', and I can't bring myself to feel like Gene deserves to be in Smash - not at the level of characters we're dealing with so far. So, just like Maxwell, this is a character I'd give 100% if I was being selfish, but will give much less because I don't wanna be.

But please Capcom if you're reading this, instead of porting crap like DMC2 to the Switch, give us God Hand instead. Even Deadly Premonition is getting a port for the love of God.

--

I take it this concept means Cowboy reps?

Chance: 50%
I never know how to rate these things, it either happens or it doesn't. There are a lot of candidates that make sense, and tons more with caveats that you should probably still include if you're making a videogame history museum, and a few more that, errr, have demand. Off the top of my head, I could see Ezio, Crash, Tracer, Dovahkiin, Shovel Knight, Geralt and even Master Chief be big contenders (hell, there's a non-zero chance we get a big one nobody considered like Commander Shepard or Agent 47). You might consider Sora (created by a Japanese company but owned by a Western one) and Lara Croft (created by a Western company but owned by a Japanese one) borderline cases too. There's other of course, but I didn't name them either due to intra-company competition or big problems that I think will prevent their inclusion. However, I think Sakurai for now will stick to Japanese gaming as there's still a lot of franchises with massive worldwide appeal and importance to include.

Want: 50%
It really depends on the character, some I think should be in, some I don't. And of course, there's a Western character that would immediately turn me off from purchase and that I'd give anything to keep out. You might know who I'm talking about.

Noms: Prince of Persia x5
Kyo Kusanagi prediction: 12.08%

He's probably got a better shot at making Marvel vs Capcom

Man I wish. You don't know how much I was pining for him to get into MvCI.

Then I didn't even get Phoenix Wright to return and the game turned out to be a dumpster fire anyways.

 

[Nemuresu]

MvC reject:
Chance: 0%-He's not in Nintendo consoles in any sort of form. Comes from a very obscure Capcom title, and one that's more famous for a meme regarding IGN's review than for its actual quality nonetheless. Also, we could talk about many other Capcom characters with way better chances (even Morrigan would be more likely than him).
Want: 0%-Even if I wanted to talk about potential MvC characters and not Smash I wouldn't bring him up at all. Not that it matters, much in the end, because just as I said in chances, I'd rather take those Capcom over him ('cept Wright).

Second western character:
Chance: 50%-It's just a gamble to me. I see it as a possible as many other concepts. Not necessarily hard to see, but not surprising as well.
Want: 50%-Again, I'm not that caring for who joins the game anymore. As long as they're from new franchises, they're all welcome in my eyes.

Nominations: Dante x5

 

[3DSNinja]

MvCI actually plays well. Although my boi got in again and is still top tier, so there IS that. GoodGrief741
Abstain on Gene.
Crash and the bois
Chance:50%: Honestly don't know here. Crash, Doom Slayer, Dovahkin, Ezio, Gordon Free man, Heavy, and Shovel Knight are all likely contenders. In the other hand, Ryu Hayubusa, Dee, Geno, Phoenix Wright, and many others are very likely and iconic. So straight 50%.
Want:90%: -10% because we could get something dumb like Fortnite. But otherwise I am on board. Shovel Knight, the Courier, Ezio, Gordon Freeman, and so many others are what I want. But we could get something extremely dumb.
Nominations: Blaze x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Another thing I forgot to mention is that it took maybe the most demanded character of all time being a Western creation for us to finally get a Western character so maybe the door isn't as open as we might think it is.

 

[Artix]

Gene

Chance: 0%
I don't see it happening. First of all, he has to compete against a lot of Capcom characters like Phoenix Wright, Amaterasu, a Resident Evil character and Dante. Not to mention, he's from a rather obscure game that doesn't even had a Nintendo release, so that already hurts his chances from getting in.

Want: Abstain
I have not played nor heard of God Hand before this, so I abstain.

Another Western character

Chance: 40%
Banjo-Kazooie really opened up the door for Western characters in Smash, but not by a whole lot, to be honest. There are a lot of Western characters that had the potential to be in Smash like Crash, Doomguy, Heavy, Ezio and so much more. However, getting a Western character is harder than most people make it out to be. First of all, it's really difficult for a Japanese company like Nintendo to contact a Western company and I'm willing to bet that unlike Banjo-Kazooie, the process might not be that easy just to get the character. Plus, Nintendo and Sakurai might still stick to Japanese-created franchises for their DLC. Still, I wouldn't put it out of a possibility as anything can happen at this point.

Want: 50%
Like I said, there are a lot of Western characters that I wanted like Crash, Heavy, Ezio and Rayman, so I wouldn't mind having another Western character in Smash. Then again, some of my most wanted characters are from Japan so it's a 50-50 situation for me.

Prediction:
Kyo Kusanagi - 3.64%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5

 

[Calamitas]

Geno God Hans?

Chance: Abstain
I have literally no idea who this character is, or what he even looks like. I could base my score around other people's ratings, but I think it wouldn't be too fair for me to do so all the time when I don't know a character.

Want: 0%
I mean. . . like I said, I don't know him. And generally, I just really prefer to have characters that I actually know make it in. So, sorry Mr Hand God, but 0% from me.

Western character? I thought you said Weastern character!

Chance: 35%
Like others have said, I think people are overblowing just how much the door has opened up for Western characters. Sure, BK got in, but they started as a Nintendo character who had massive fan behind them for literal decades. There just hasn't been a real precedent for this yet.

Want: 15%
All the characters that I actively want are from Japanese franchises, so this concept gets a big "meh" from me. Someone like Crash, Spyro, Shovel Knight or Shantae wouldn't be the end of the world for me, but I don't care much, either.

Nominating. . . oh bugger, now that Amaterasu has her day coming up, I need to think of something new. In that case. . . I'll just go with Concept: Any new Xenoblade character.

Prediciting Ryo Kusanagi to land around 1.234%.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

This guy's name is one letter shy from Geno which is funny cause they're both dead and irrelevant
Chance: 0%
I won't beat around the bush here. First of, he stems from a Playstation exclusive but that's honestly the least of his problems. God Hand flopped, is dead and likely never coming back. It's popularity is merely a cult following at best and considering the dozens of more feasible Capcom characters they could add in, it's no duh Gene stands no chance.

Want: 50%
Which is all really unfortunate cause God Hand really is a gem. Had it not come out on the ps2 during the shift of the generation (and gotten better reviews, thanks IGN) perhaps the game would've been remembered more fondly and we would've actually had Gene in MvC3.

God Hand imo deserves a second chance so the biased of me would be over the moon seeing Gene in Smash... but on the other hand... yeah, he doesn't really deserve it, atleast not before the many other more viable Capcom picks. Which is why, with goddamn Deadly premonition getting a Switch exclusive sequel and Capcom showing interest in their smaller franchises, I'm hoping we might have a God Hand 2 someday or even just a port to be more realistic. Then I can actually have my want be sort of justified.

Tbh I kinda just nommed Gene to get some people here knowing about the game. It may not be for everyone but if you're into beat them ups or those bat**** crazy action games by Platinum, I suggest giving it a try if you own a ps2/ps3.

Another filthy gaijin character
Chance: 80%
Well I consider Crash Bandicoot pretty likely with the additional dlc happening and I'm also keeping an eye out for Rayman and Steve. Banjo pretty much opened the door to western third-parties after all. So they aren't much of a long shot anymore.

Want: 50%
Depends on the character really. I care for charactes like Rayman, Crash and Hollow Knight but not so much for the likes of Chief, Ezio and Scorpion.

Kyo: 1.24%
Akira Howard x5

 

[Sari]

He's just one vowel off from being one of the most popular characters in Smash speculation.

Chance: 0%
God Hand is 13 years old and AFAIK the only major appearance of Gene since then was appearing as a card in the Heroes vs Heralds mode in UMvC3 (essentially the Capcom equivalent of a spirit). He was actually considered for MvC3 but lost the spot to Amaterasu and I'd assume a similar thing would happen if Sakurai had to decide on another Capcom character to add. There is no way Gene is getting in when he has to compete with bigger Capcom names like Chun-Li, Dante, Phoenix Wright, and a RE rep to name a few.

Want: Abstain
Never heard of him until today or played his game so I won't comment.

----------

Another Western rep

Chance: 40%
I feel like the only Western characters that have a somewhat realistic shot are Crash, Doomguy, and Steve (with Crash being the most likely). They have a fair amount of things going for them so seeing them make it into Smash someday wouldn't come as too much of a shock. Thing is it took a ton of fan support/persuasion just to get Banjo in as our first Western series character and I'm pretty sure Sakurai finds it easier to work with Japanese companies.

Want: 50%

After thinking about it... there aren't a lot of Western characters that I'm really rallying for. The only ones I can think of off the top of my head are Crash and Shantae, with Nathan Drake and a GTA character being honorable mentions at best. I would love to see the aforementioned characters get into Smash though at the end of the day just about all of my most wanted originate from Japan so I'd prefer if we got characters from over there instead.

Kyo Kusanagi chance prediction: 0.94% (yeah I'm not gonna lie: this ain't gonna be pretty)

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Gene
Chance: 1%
Look, considering we possibly have a season two on our hands, I do think a Capcom rep is almost inevitable at this point. You have the frontrunners in Dante, Jill, Leon and Phoenix Wright. Then you have a few dark horses in Joe, Amaterasu, Arthur and Morrigan, with less chances than the first four, but still not what I'd say is impossible.

Then there are picks like Gene. Not gonna lie... when Morrigan, a character that these days is pretty much just kept alive by crossovers, has better chances than you, that's an indicator that yours are pretty much as close to zero as it gets.

Want: Abstain
Never played God Hand, even though a lot of my fellow Capcom fan friends have begged me to.

Another western rep
Chance: 20%
While the floodgates have opened with the bear and bird, most high-profile candidates are still japanese characters. The ones people talk about are Crash, Steve and Doom Slayer and the latter could have problems due to lack of popularity in Japan. Even counting a League of Legends character as a dark horse pick - something I have been doing for about a month, that's still just four characters compared to a good dozen or so japanese characters with good chances.

If we see another western character, I think it would be our last one for Ultimate's cycle.

Want: 50%
Not gonna lie, out of all the characters left in my "most wanted" list, only 2 are western: Crash and Ahri. There was Rayman, but considering how hard his games flopped in Japan and how he's a Spirit, I'm not holding my breath for him anymore. Thankfully Banjo and Kazooie are in, so for the time being I'm considering this wish of mine mostly satiated.

Predictions
Kyo Kusanagi: 4.13% ( )

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 10 (Using my extra noms today)

 

[Ornl]

Another western character
I don't think Banjo is an open door, but he's an exception that would mean that another exception is possible. A rep wester should be exceptional, and even more exceptional than Rayman, Shantae, Shovel Knight and UNDERTALE. This means that I think the Indies which are less important than UNDERTALE have no chance. Then, when I repeat to myself: "____ will be the first Western rep after Banjo, which is an exception", it must sound right for me. So I give no chance to Overwatch, Assassin's Creed, Halo, The Elder Scroll, Mortal Kombat or Raving Rabbits.

I think the 4 possibilities would be:
- Steve (10%), which comes from at the top1 series (= exceptional).
- Crash Bandicoot (10%), which conquered Japan (= exceptional ; the best proof in my opinion is that Crash is the only character to have a golden version of all TOTAKU figures).
- Doomguy (5%), because I think DOOM was most unique and different (= exceptional) western Indie game on SNES.
- Lara Croft (5%), whose status of great Western icon (= exceptional) raises the global chance.
Total of these 4 series : 20%.

 

[BowserKing]

Day over already?, that was much faster then I expected

Gene (God Hand)

Chance: 15%. Once again, competition is the number one concern, and most likely, the Capcom rep would be from a different game. However, that does not mean that it's impossible.

Want: 50%. Never played the game, but he would be fun to play. That is all I 'm going to say about this.

Another Western Character

Chance: 25%. It used to be 15%, but the inclusion of made it more likely. Which one however depends on the popularity and competition.

Want: Depends on the fighter being talked about. I'll defiantly be up for Steve, Shantae and Ray-Man, and some possible others, but it depends if they want those characters to be playable.

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Concept: Any Grass-Type Starter

 

[Wunderwaft]

Gene

Chance: 4%
God Hand is an old game that was panned by critics and didn't sell well. Despite that the game established a cult fanbase that prevented the game from being forgotten in history. Unfortunately this is Capcom we're talking about, they have a ton of popular IPs that haven't appeared in Smash yet. Gene just doesn't stand a chance against the big dogs of Capcom.

Want: 65%
I like God Hand, it was a very challenging yet fun game. Gene lends himself well for fighting games since he has a lot of unique attacks he can use in his home game. I'd like to see God Hand get some love again, whether it be in Smash or not.



Western reps

Chance: 80%
People are underestimating the possibility of another Western character to make it into the roster. Yeah negotiations would probably take longer than usual because of the language barrier, but let's stop treating Nintendo as if they are a small indie company lol. They are one of the biggest video game companies on earth with a large influence on the industry. What Western video game company DOESN'T want to include their character in the biggest crossover in gaming history? The challenge doesn't come from Western companies, it comes from Nintendo themselves if they wish to approach them in the first place. Phil Spencer said negotiating with Nintendo over Banjo was very easy and smooth, and Microsoft has been porting their own games for the Switch as well. Keep in mind this is Microsoft, a supposed console competitor. Ubisoft wanted to put Rayman in Smash for so long and they've been cooperating with Nintendo to develop games like Mario+Rabbids. Bethesda and Activision have been supporting the Switch with a lot of third party games and ports.

In the end it's up to Nintendo whether they wish to add another Western character or not. And it's not like Western companies are running out of viable characters. With the announcement of more DLC I'm optimistic towards the possibility of seeing another Western character.


Want: 100%
It depends on the character. But for the most part I'm supportive of the inclusion of more Western characters in Smash. Like I said, there are still a lot of great options such as Crash, Steve, and Doomguy.


Prediction: Kyo Kusunagi 1.1%
Nomination: Steve x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Abstaining on Gene because I don't know anything about God Hand. I can say though that there are so many Capcom characters fighting for the spot that God Hand (from what little I know from looking at other responses on here) seems to be lower on the pecking order.

Another western character

Chance: 70%

I do see Banjo as an open door as now Sakurai would probably be more comfortable working with western companies. There are plenty of western companies like Ubisoft, Bethesda, and now even Blizzard who have been working closely with Nintendo and the Switch, and there are plenty of highly-requested characters/characters that have made a big impact on gaming like Crash Bandicoot, Doom Slayer, Steve, Master Chief, Rayman, Shantae, etc. I do see us getting at least a couple more western characters, with Crash and Doom Slayer as the western front runners and some of the most likely characters in general.

Smash Ultimate has sold 5+ million units in the U.S alone (https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2...timate_surpasses_five_million_sales_in_the_us). Smash ultimate has sold 14.73 million worldwide (https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html). The first source was released in February so there has definitely been more copies sold since. Same with the global sales since they were updated until June 30th. Thus, the West takes up close to half of the playerbase/possible DLC buyers, and keep in mind that 5+ million sales doesn't even include Canada or Latin America. Granted they might not be as big of a gaming marketplace (I don't have any sources that specify that), but combined with the U.S would put the West at about half of the units sold. The point is, Nintendo is of course a Japanese company so they are biased towards Japanese companies, but wouldn't they want to make some characters that really appeal to about half of their player base? Especially since a game like Minecraft is huge in Japan as well (https://kotaku.com/so-far-in-2018-japans-most-downloaded-nintendo-switch-1827742719 Granted this was from last year, but with Minecraft growing in popularity again, I wouldn't be surprised if Minecraft is still very popular in Japan).

Overall, there is plenty of profit potential for Nintendo to receive from working with Western companies: Bringing in highly requested characters which almost guarantees good sales and cross-promotion. Heck, Nintendo could even push for western games like Doom and Rayman in the East just like what they are doing for Dragon Quest in the West. Finally, with Sakurai saying that he wants to please the fans, I think this may just be the chance for characters like Crash and Doom Slayer to get into the game. At this point, I would be shocked if we didn't get at least 1 or 2 more western characters.

Want: 100%

Some characters like Crash, Doom Slayer, Steve, and Master Chief get a 100% want from me. Bringing in some of these characters would really nail in Smash Ultimate as the biggest crossover of all time.

Noms: Geno x5

Predictions: Kyo Kusanagi: 1% (major oof. Terry already stole his spot)