Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Icedragonadam]

ARMS Character

Chance: 50%

Want: 75%

It can go either way here. It all determines when this game tsarted in development and when Smash Switch's roster was finalized. If a rep doesn't get in, then I see one getting in DLC.

My pick for a rep would be Master Mummy or Twintelle. I find Spring Man to be generic compared to the other fighters IMO. He's the Chrom of the game.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 50%

Want: 90%

Although I don't believe in the Gematsu Leak, Rhythm Heaven is at that level where does warrant a rep. Having an enemy in Smash Run proves that, and it was datamined that a Rhythm Heaven character was supposedly plan but still could go either way.

Prediction

Daisy: 13.67%

Paper Mario: 29.67%

Nomination

Lucas x5

 

[Esquelen]

Arms character

Chance: 70%

Wants: 55%

Well, I think it has many chances to appear, although people say it has not been very successful, I think it is not, it has been quite popular being one of the first games to come out for the console, personally it does not call me much the attention its game since I already tried it enough times and it makes me bored, but the truth deserves its inclusion very much

Surely Spring Man is the character they place, is the most "characteristic" character of his saga, has even a version "Metal Spring Man"

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 45%
Wants: 100%

Rhythm Heaven is one of my favorite Nintendo games, and I would really love it if there was a fighter in my other favorite game, Smash Bros

My first look at the saga was in a store where that game was and I graced the chorus kid who was on the cover, almost I was going to buy it, but I did not buy it.

Then I saw memes about the video game and the first thing I thought was "this game will surely come out as a stage in smash bros"

Then I saw the Gematsu leak and I saw that one of the characters were the "Chorus men" and I was confused about who I was looking in Google and I was funny, they were the same characters I found on the cover years ago, so I got closer to his saga and I bought the Rhythm Heaven from DS and 3DS, and finally I loved his franchise.

The choir guys are the characters that I would most like them to appear, but if not, then I guess Tibby will be the protagonist of the last game.

The problem is that they do not appear is because I saw rumors that they would not do more Rhythm Heaven or Wario Ware, so I do not know, but hopefully confirm some of Rhythm Heaven: S

(Sorry if I can not explain myself, I do not know much English)

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Arms (Shoulders, Elbows, Wrists and Fingers too!)

Chance- 65%
Really lies down to when ARMS started development. With how successful Smash 4 was at advertising newer games, Nintendo would absolutely try and get Sakurai to include Arms content. If it's too late for the base game, then a character would almost certainly be included as DLC. I say almost, though, as many people (including me) thought Inklings would be in Smash 4. Spoilers, they didn't. But, Arms has slightly better timing than Splatoon did.

Want- 90%
I had a lot of fun with Arms! If anyone, we'll get Spring Man which is alright but I hope they would have model swaps a la Bowser Jr so I can play as Byte, the objectively best and coolest character.

Rhythm Hell

Chance- 55%
Sakurai has pondered the idea for a while now, so I think it could happen. RH is also apparently popular in Japan, which helps out a lot.

Want- 60%
Never played a RH game, but the idea of a character that gets stronger with perfectly timed button inputs sounds pretty fun.

Daisy- 16.24%
Paper Mario- 27.34%

Banjo Kazooie X 3
Doomguy X 2

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

ARMS character

Chance: 50%

The problem with an ARMS character is that the roster for this Smash game was most likely decided before ARMS was even revealed, and I can see Sakurai not wanting to add a character from a series that has yet to prove it's popularity/success. However I think it's possible that Nintendo showed the game to Sakurai while it was in mid development which inspired him to make an ARMS character playable, due to how unique they are. Nintendo may have also told Sakurai that they want this to be their next big IP and insisted it would be a good idea to add a character in Smash.

Want: 90%
I love the character designs and think they would make an interesting addition.

Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 70%

Rhythm Heaven is probably Nintendo's most notable franchise (with noteworthy characters) that doesn't have a playable character in Smash. We also know that a Rhythm Heaven character was planned for the last Smash based on ingame files. A Rhythm Heaven character has a lot of potential.

Want: 90%
I mainly want the Chorus Kids; the idea of them has really grown on me. Karate Joe would be cool too though.

Nominations: Geno x5

 

[Morbi]

Arms Character

Chance: 100%

I am honestly tired of explaining why when the same redundant arguments against him that hold virtually no merit are used over and over again. It is pretty obvious, fam. But the doubters are going to turn this into nice speculation brownie points. Usually I would put this in the "everyone guessed that" category, but since it seems to be the policy to overthink this, I am actually going to get "hard speculation" correct for such an overt character. So, thank you Smash fans, thank you very much. You really help my self-esteem in ways you could never possibly imagine.

Want: 100%

Spring Man is love, Spring Man is life. He is the only character I want this time around.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 50%

They were going to be in last time, as far as I am concerned, the question of whether or not the 3DS held them back is potentially there. It could go either way. I am honestly expecting it. I am just hesitant because once something does not work out, Sakurai tends to leave it alone unless there is a reason to do otherwise.

Want: 1%

Hell no, hell to the no-no-no.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Arms Character Chance - 95%: I don't see how this doesn't happen. The only way it does is if the roster was decided a very long time ago during the time of the ballot, that's where the token 5% is ticked off. This is the biggest new Nintendo IP other than Splatoon, and unlike Splatoon Arms is a very character driven franchise.

Arms Character Want - 25%: Arms is a great franchise with a lot of varied characters, which is why I would rather not have the bland Spring Man. Can't the Smash fanbase rally around someone other than a generic main character for once? Still, as far as generic main characters go, Spring Man's not the worst and I would still enjoy him a bit. 25% is high for me as far as something I don't actively want.

Rhythm Heaven Character Chance - 15%: We don't know how credible that leak was at the end of the day, so we don't know if Chorus Kids were worked on or not. That's all this slot really has. It's a pretty successful franchise, but it offers extremely little in terms of characters. Sakurai has a history of hating multi characters anyway, what with Diddy/Dixie, Plusle/Minun, and Ice Climbers, so I don't see him changing his mind with Chorus Kids.

Rhythm Heaven Character Want - 3%: I'll throw in a couple points higher than 0 in the off chance that they pick the meme wrestler. Everything else would just be so boring.

Predict Paper Mario 35%
Predict Daisy 23.5% (Her fanbase on this board is bigger than elsewhere, so I inflated this score a little)

Nominate Blue Bowser x5

 

[ikke471]

Arms Character

Chance: 40%

It could go either way but I don't think a character should get into smash with just one title under it's belt. There's also the fact that the characters havn't really "proven themselves" yet like the inklings have.

Want: 0%

I think the ARMS characters all look super uninspired and idk man I don't like them.

Rhythm Heaven character:

Chance: 15%

it's be cool but I don't see it happening

Want: 30%

Don't really care but I wouldn't haaate it

 

[AwesomeAussie27]

ARMS

Chance: 55%

I'll admit recent news of Kabuki admitting the ARMS characters are too new for Smash makes me less confident in them being in the base game. It's a matter of when ARMS started development in the end of the day and if Sakurai feels the characters would be interesting enough as a fighter. It is one of the Switch's biggest hits, well as far as new IP's goes. But we shall see.

Want: 100%

The cast of ARMS is too good to ignore. They all have some unique potential other than their stretchy arms. There's much stuff to add like the game's jazzy soundtrack to one of the many stages. I would take anyone, though I vastly prefer Rhythm Girl.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance- 55%

Sakurai has pondered the idea if we look at the outdated Gemastu Leak and the hidden Rhythm Heaven symbol in Smash Wii U's files. It's a big series in Japan and far from dead when it came out around the time the Wii U had died. Not to mention the potential in a rhythm gimmick.

Want: 100%

Rhythm Heaven is a very charming series and I loved it since the DS game. They are funny, addictive, and would bring a whole new quirky side to Smash. Whether it be Tibby, the Chrous Kids, the Wandering Samurai, Karate Joe, the Tap Trial girl, the Rngside Duo, or the monkeys themselves. I would even be happy with just a stage.

Daisy: 13%

Paper Mario: 25%

Nominations: Tsubasa Oribe x5

 

[wildvine47]

Arms Character

Chance: 99% - There's no way Spring Man misses this iteration of Smash in my mind. Arms got promotion and support from Nintendo only rivaled by Splatoon, and we saw how that turned out. The moveset basically speaks for itself, there's the possibility for a unique Arms-switching mechanic, and we knew about the game right in the sweetspot for Sakurai to have planned a character for it here. If Spring Man isn't base roster, he's undoubtedly DLC. I honestly think he might even bring a Ribbon Girl alt/clone with him. I don't really think any other characters have a chance. These two are the ones on the boxart after all.

Want: 55% - I'm indifferent to Arms. I tried a demo for it at an event, and it was fun but it didn't blow me away, and I never ended up buying the game. If Spring Man makes it, that's just another check mark on the list of most likely additions. If he doesn't, I'd certainly be confused, but I wouldn't care too much. A friend doesn't believe me that he's a lock though, so I have an extra 5% for being able to gloat when he does get in.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 90% - Y'all are gonna think I'm nuts for this. But I think a Rhythm Heaven character is a lock this go around. Gematsu was undoubtedly real in my mind, but from an earlier point in development. It helps that the only other part of Gematsu aside from the Chorus Kids that didn't come true, Chrom, we know was in development at one point thanks to an interview with Sakurai. So even then, just because they were cut, doesn't mean that they're a lock for the next one though, right?

I think the important part here is how far along they got before being cut. Ice Climbers we know had a ton of development done on them, to the point that they were working on the Wii U version but the 3DS version stopped them from happening. Because they got so far into development before being cut, there were still plenty of leftovers from the Ice Climbers' development presence in Smash 4: A Smash Run enemy, an unused series logo, and a few songs.

The character we know was planned to be in the running was the Chorus Kids. As a trio of characters, they undoubtedly ran into the same 3DS issues as the Ice Climbers, and, I would be willing to bet money that they got cut at a similar phase of development to the Ice Climbers. After all, what they left behind was: A Smash Run enemy, an unused series logo, and a few songs. I basically see these little guys about as likely as the Ice Climbers, because they undoubtedly got just as far before being scrapped. Ice Climbers only get the edge for being veterans that had a previously-made moveset, whereas the Chorus Trio likely could have not had a complete moveset yet. Considering the insane similarities between the Chorus Kids and the Ice Climbers though, I am very confident they got to the same level of development.

Want: 70% - I'm terrible at rhythm games, and Rhythm Heaven is no exception. I'm even terrible at spelling the word rhythm. But I'm supremely confident in the information I posited above, and it'd be so satisfying to be right. Plus, my girlfriend loves the franchise and she'd be ecstatic to see it get some rep in Smash. However, I'm not as big of a fan of it being the Chorus Kids specifically that are likely. I'd much prefer Marshal, who's basically a chorus kid that's an actual character, the franchise's mascot, and he wouldn't have a complicated trio mechanic going on with him. Game and Watch-style moveset summoning characters from all the minigames please!

Predictions

Daisy: 14.02% - A certain faction is almost definitely going to skew her chance rating, but they'll be too much in the minority to bring her up too much.

Paper Mario: 23.58% - He's in a better, but not great place either. A lot of people are rightfully going to cite him being a third Mario, along with the nigh-universal panning of his sub-series' most recent titles. Relevancy and moveset potential will likely bolster that a bit though.

Nominations

Holy cow, I was right on the money with Chrom. I've never seen a prediction that close, dang.

Dark Matter Blade x 10 please. Gonna get that guy on the schedule first, then comes Scorpion.

 

[ZealousGamer]

ARMS Character

Chance 80%: I'd say Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are the most likely.

Want 65%: I don't own a Switch so I've never played ARMS but it does look cool. I wouldn't mind if we got an ARMS character.

Rhythm Heaven

Chance 25%: I wouldn't say it's likely. But not impossible. I haven't seen evidence as to make them more likely.

Want 5%: I see nothing interesting from Rhythm Heaven. The Chorus Kids in particular baffle me as to their popularity. There nothing about their designs that are appealing. I can't even tell them apart from one another. Do they even have individual names? There are much better options out there.

Nominations:
Jibanyan 2x
Midna 2x
Skull Kid 1x

 

[Kirby Dragons]

ARMS Chance: 78%
ARMS Want: 75%
Rhythm Heaven Chance: 83%
Rhythm Heaven Want: 20%
Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

ARMS Representative

Chance: 15%

Y'all are crazy

The roster was decided in mid-late 2016, before ARMS was even announced. Sakurai may not have even known about the game at that time, but for the sake of this discussion, let's assume he did. Why would he include a character from a game he didn't know would be well received? This isn't a Greninja situation here folks, Pokemon is a worldwide phenomenon, obviously including a new Pokemon would be a safe bet to please fans. But ARMS? ARMS didn't even have fans at that point in time. And I can't see Sakurai pulling a Sonic to include a character from a brand new IP that got outsold by 1-2 Switch.

I could see an ARMS character as an assist trophy, or as DLC. Even then, ARMS didn't receive Splatoon levels of acclaim and sails, and that game was held back by the Wii U's install base. If the Inklings didn't make it in Smash 4's DLC I highly doubt an ARMS character will make it into the base roster of Smash Switch.

Want: 20%

My anticipation for characters is largely based on how much nostalgia I have for them. ARMS is far to new for me to get excited to see them in Smash Brothers.

Rhythm Heaven Representative

Chance: 85%

Gematsu was a legitimate leak with outdated information. Therefore we know that a Rhythm Heaven character is something that Sakurai wants to add to the game. I see no reason why he wouldn't revisit the idea this time around.

Want: 60%

I've never played a Rhythm Heaven game, but the concept of a rhythm-based fighter intrigues me

Prediction for Paper Mario: 72%
Prediction for Daisy: 14%


Nominating Bomberman x5

 

[Miifighters4Smash5]

I think Travis Touchdown would be in:
Because Not Only of his New Game coming out this year and would Cross-promote the Game But also Because; If the Return of the breaking of the Fourth wall by the characters comes back for a 3rd time, Like they did with Kid Icarus characters in Smash for Wii U & 3DS, and they did for Solid Snake in Brawl; Why not have Travis do that in HIS Home Stage(whether that's his Motel, or wherever Travis Strikes again takes place, though Most likely the latter); Like Maybe if Cloud Returns, he could mistake him for Helter Skelter, or He Could Drool over how hot the Female Fighters are, or Ask to Compare Swords with Other Swordfighters to his Lightsaber Katana.

 

[Munomario777]

ARMS

Chance: 90%. It's a big new IP for Nintendo, and has since received lots of support both with free downloadable content and official competitive events.

Want: 60%. I think any character from this franchise would be really cool, thanks to the signature stretchy limbs. We've not really had a character with that much non-projectile range before! And ARMS has a huge amount of character to it. Even if it's one of the more standard ones like Springman, I think he'd be a blast to play. (My rating here would be higher, though, if it weren't basically guaranteed to be Springman – for example, I'd be even more hype for someone like Minmin.)

Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 30%. It's an acknowledged franchise that's been around as recently as 3DS, but given the silence since then + the dev team working on that Sushi Striker game (iirc), not looking awfully hopeful for the future of the series as a whole. They did get a Smash Run enemy and whatnot, though... so who knows!

Want: 100%. Rhythm Heaven is amazing, I would be over the moon to see a rep in Smash! The one I'd pick personally is the samurai; I reckon someone like Tibby or Marshal would just have a really tacky moveset full of random props.

Daisy Prediction: 25%. There are a couple other Mario reps (like Waluigi, Paper Mario, and Captain Toad) who are in front of her I reckon, and she's not particularly relevant at the moment.

Paper Mario Prediction: 50%. Smash 4 gave us a Paper Mario stage, so Sakurai is willing to put in content from this subseries. Paper Mario also got a game as recently as the Wii U, so this is very possible indeed!

Nominations: Snip & Clip x2, Blue Bowser x3

 

[PeridotGX]

UPPER APPENDAGES representation

Odds- 70%. If people gave Rex & Pyra high scores, discounting ARMS for being too new is hypocritical.

Wants - 40%. Very unique moveset potential.

MUSICAL GOOD AFTERLIFE representation

Odds - 30%. I cant see it happening

Wants - 10%. I've never played a RH game

Nominations: Marx x 4, Kamek x 1.

 

[Sid-cada]

ARMS

Chance - 35% - Depending on timing, he is either a lock or missed the boat. I'm leaning toward missed, though.

Want - 80% - Eh, why not? They could be interesting.


Rhythm Heaven Representation

Chance - 80% - I assume Gematsu was a leak of an early draft, and while I cannot say if Sakurai will revisit them, signs are good. The character may vary, but for this it doesn't matter when we know they were considered via a data leak.

Want - 70% - I'd prefer Karate Joe over most other characters, but i still want them in.


Predictions

Daisy - 13.24% - Maybe as a clone?

Paper Mario - 64.35% - He already has the stage...


Nominations

Anna X5

 

[sman3579]

Arms character:
Chance: 95%
Let’s face it, it’s a new IP and is one of the best selling games on the Switch. Sure some could argue that it hasn’t fully “earned its stripes” yet or that the roster was possible decided long before Arms was made, but I’m pretty confident an Arms character will make it. The series is selling well, they are hosting tournaments for it, etc. It would be dumb not to include an Arms character. What better way to bring more attention to the series than to include a character from Arms in Smash.

Want: 80%
I definitely want an Arms character. Would be cool to see how they implement a stretchy boxer moveset into Smash. I feel like the moveset has potential and could make for a fun character.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 40%
It is an established series with 4 games, but just the nature of the game, I feel like it would be hard to add a character from it. Each character gets like a few mini-games but usually do the same few things in said mini game. Basically if they did include a RH character they would have to make a complete moveset by scratch. Now that isn’t impossible because they did it for Ice Climbers and Duck Hunt, but I feel like as retro characters they get special rights on that. I just don’t see a RH being extremely likely.

Want: 80%
I’m on the Karate Joe bandwagon. I feel like he would be the most practical character to add since he is already a fighter who knows karate. He is one of my most wanted characters for Smash 5 so I hope he makes it. If not him then I guess the Chorus Kids or whatever they are called lol.

 

[Tonydrake]

ARMS

Chance: 90 %

I would be very surprised if there isn't any ARMS newcomer. It seems the most likely candidate to promote Switch generation and their characters have a lot of potencial. The game is very recent, so maybe an ARMS newcomer wasn't even considered at the beginning of the development, but that could very well have changed since then

Want: 100 %

I haven't played ARMS but after seeing many videos I love the design and concept of Spring Man and Ribbon Girl. I think their characters would be a great and very cool addition to the roster

RHYTHM HEAVEN

Chance: 30 %

If Sakurai wants to add more "unexpected" fighters like Wii Fit Trainers they are possible. I don't think they are between the most likely newcomers at all but I wouldn't be surprised if any of them becomes playable

Want: 10 %

I don't like its characters, they just don't appeal to me. But I guess it's always cool to see more franchises with their own stages and songs represented in Smash. I just prefer another one

 

[BluePikmin11]

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:

On whether ARMS will be represented in Smash Bros…

“I think the correct reaction is to say ‘I can’t answer that!’ Another thing I’d say is that Arms is so young — it’s only a year old — that maybe it’s too early to think about that. But I think it’s absolutely fantastic that there are people out there talking about Arms characters in that way

https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

 

[chemo]

ARMS Character

Chance: 95%

ARMS is Nintendo's biggest new IP on the Switch and its characters could definitely translate well into Smash. The only reason why I didn't put it as a 100% chance is maybe because the ARMS character will be DLC and not at launch.

Want: 70%

I haven't played ARMS, but I could definitely see one of its representatives being very fun to play and watch in Smash.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 60%

It's one of the most relevant Nintendo IP's that hasn't gotten a playable character in Smash, though I wonder if it may be due to difficulties in coming up with a unique moveset, but knowing Sakurai he'd probably be able to figure it out at some point.

Want: 35%

Depends on who the character is really, a theoretical RH fighter could either being generic as hell, or something Smash has never had before. I have also never played Rhythm Heaven, so that lowers my desire for a character from that series.

Nomination:

Doomguy x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Minor but important nitpick: the Gematsu leak wasn't fake; it was outdated. It never claimed to be a complete list of newcomers, Chrom was planned at one point (to those who say he was only considered, Sakurai is on record saying he even made a moveset for him, so he was MORE than considered) and the Wii U version has leftover data for a Rhythm Heaven symbol located in e playable franchise section (as in, not the stage section, but the roster section). Plus the fact that it listed New Pokémon instead of Greninja further supports that the list came from early on in development.


Just wanted to point that out.

Even though I personally also believe the Gematsu was ultimately real about something, that really doesn't change the fact that it could still be fake. We have no proof that confirms or denies it. It could very well have just been lucky guesses.

Now yes, there are several little things that support the idea, like chrom getting moveset ideas, the Rhythm heaven symbol found in the code, etc. But none of that is definitive.

With that all said my thoughts:

Arms Chance: 70%
Even if they don't get in the base game, they would probably get dlc. With that said, Arms while it looks like it is successful doesn't seem to have taken off like Splatoon did. Granted, if they were to put them because of advertising then that really only matters for dlc. DLC is going to have a lot of competition though. Especially if veterans get involved again. We only got one first party newcomer from dlc last time after all.

Arms wants: 30% They would be cool as a new ip. But can't say much else about them.

Rhythm heaven chance: 60%
I am one of the people who believes the Gematsu leak. And as such it comes with the belief that Sakurai has considered a Rhythm heaven character before, backed up by datamining revealing rythm heaven symbols.

The ultimate problem though is that even if they were considered, the fact is that they didn't make it in the first place. We can speculate it was the 3ds fault. But maybe there could've been other reasons. Sakurai wasn't satisfied with Chrom, so maybe he also wasn't satisfied with the chrous kids.

Rhythm heaven want: 75%
This is assuming the Rhythm heaven character is the chrous kids. If it isn't then subtract like 25%. I love Rhythm heaven. Megamix was really fun and the songs are awesome. I would love to see a rhythm based character in smash especially using the adorable chrous kids.

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:



https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

Maybe maybe not. It could be more about the suprise that people are wanting an Arms character than about the possibility.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Replies about a character being on a roster from a developer should never be used as evidence. They can't say yes or no on that kind of stuff.

 

[ForwardArrow]

ARMS character
Chance: 80%
As a new and somewhat popular Nintendo franchise, I'd be pretty surprised if Arms didn't follow Splatoon in getting a new representative. The only thing that would potentially block Arms is having a small amount of new representatives and wanting to prioritize say, a new Pokemon or whatnot over it.

Want: 10%
I'm honestly really not a fan of the "style" of ARMs, and this is on top of the fact that Nintendo will most likely just add the mascot of the very boring Spring Man. I suspect the moveset he has will at least be unique, but I'm in no way thrilled by the prospect of him getting in. I'd be more accepting of something like Byte and Barq, Master Mummy, or Dr. Coyle however, even if they still wouldn't be excellent choices, so that prevents me from just dropping a 5% or 0% here.

Rhythm Heaven character
Chance: 50%
Its another unrepresented franchise, albeit one not really based around much of a conflict so its harder to directly translate over, and lacks the sales of say Animal Crossing or Wii Music. I also think the suggested rep of Chorus Kids kind of goes to show how little this franchise has to offer in terms of noteworthy characters. Still, its an untapped Nintendo franchise so I think its more likely than a lot of things for that reason alone.

Want: 0%
I just don't care about Rhythm Heaven at all, and suspect any character choice added would feel really forced and bad.

Nominations
Blue Bowser x 3
Dark Samus x 2

 

[-crump-]

ARMS Rep
Chance: 85%
This is about the highest my chance scores are going to go, because come on... There's no way this isn't inevitable. Even if Sakurai didn't know about the game when he was first planning the roster, Nintendo would surely give him a wink and a nudge to include someone for their new Switch IP considering how much faith they put in the game. We know Sakurai loves working with unique designs, and ARMS has got those in spades.

Want: 40%
I played the ARMS Test Demo, for a couple hours, and was extremely underwhelmed by the gameplay. I have no interest in picking up the game at all. That said, I do like the chracter designs (Spring Man and Min Min especially are really solid), so if/when they are in Smash, I won't be upset about it.

Rhythm Heaven Rep
Chance: 30%
I don't see it, personally. On top of the fact that it's kind of hard to pick out a central character to represent the series, it's been a while since RH was in the spotlight, and it's never really made much of a splash. I think it's possible, but wouldn't bet on it.

Want: 35%
Haven't played any RH games, and I've never been curious enough to try one. The character designs don't really appeal to me, and there are so many other characters I'd rather have... But, I recognize that it's a Nintendo series that could use some recognition, and I wouldn't be particularly bothered by this.

Predicitons:
Daisy: 14%
Paper Mario: 23%

Noms:
Henry Fleming x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Arms character Chance: 30%

I truthfully think people are jumping the gun on this one. Yeah, it's a fighting game with fairly good success, so a character could certainly work in Smash, but it's not on Splatoon's level just yet, and it's also much younger. I'm sure Sakurai is aware of it, but that doesn't mean it's necessarily going to get a character. It's a new IP with one game that's not even old. True, similar things have happened before, so I'm not totally discounting it, but it's only happened with IPs that have already been around for a few years longer, like Fire Emblem.

I can't personally imagine the chances of an ARMS character being on the default roster are particularly good. Maybe some items like trophies will be in the game, but not a playable character. That said, we don't know how DLC is going to be handled this time around, so it's possible that an ARMS character will get into the game later on as a paid download.

Want: 80%

I've yet to buy the game but from the moment it was unveiled it looked really fun. I have no doubts that any character from ARMS would make for a really fun fighter in a Super Smash Bros. game.

Rhythm Heaven character Chance: 50%

This one is a toss-up as far as I'm concerned. We apparently got close to getting one in the previous game, but for whatever reason it just didn't make the cut.

Want: 80%

A character like the Chorus Kids, Karate Joe or the Wrestler could be really, really fun.

Nominations: Shovel Knight x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

ARMS

Chance: 70%
Nyu big IP and Nintendo seems to be still pushing for it to sell nya. If they're nyot right nyaway in the game, maybe they'll nyappear as a DLC character nya! However I can see one nyappearing as an assist trophy instead too mew. Wouldn't that be a shame nyaaa~?

Want: 80%
Arms has mostly pretty unique characters nya, lots of potential nya! I'd want Min Min in, but it'll probably be Spring Man with a Ribbon Girl alternate costume nya. ... I have night terrors that they'll be a longer reach Little Mac semi-clone nya.


Rhythm Heaven

Chance: Abstain nyaaaaa
I really don't have any clue nya.

Want: 60%
I'd be pleased to see someone from RH in smash nya, but nyo hurt feelings if they're nyot in nya.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:



https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

It seems like a standard "we can't say anything substantial or Nintendo will have our heads" speech. Wouldn't say it confirms or deconfirms anything.

 

[Leafeon523]

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:



https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

I based my rating off dlc, so this doesn't really apply to me.

 

[SmashChu]

ARMS
Chances - 100%
Want - 80%
This is actually a character(s) to bring up because the arguments I'm seeing against ARMS are the bad arguments I've told folks not to do. In particular, trying to "time the roster."

The idea is asinine for a lot of reasons. It assumes, first, that how Smash was developed in the past is how it will be developed now. That there was a "cutoff" before so there has to be one now. Since we have no reason to think it would be the same and for the simple fact people can change how they do things, we have to assume that that's bogus. Second, even if we look at what has actually happened, you'll see that often characters have been added soon after their game was released. Greninja was added when there was only concept art. Roy was added before his game was out. ARMS released June 2017. If Smash comes out in September, that's 1 year and 4 months. If we assume that Smash started development March 2016, that's about halfway through the game's development. It was announced 5 months prior and Sakurai would have known about it before it released (likely back in 2016). So there is no reason ARMS would be shunned due to timing. For the record, I expect all of Nintendo first party releases from 2017 to be present in Smash in some form (1-2-Switch, Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade, Splatoon 2 and ARMS).

As for want, I like them, but they aren't on the top of my list.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance - 75%
Want - 75%

This one is a bit odder as we have some data in the Wii U game for Rhythm Heaven. The symbol was included alongside the characters. If you believe Gematsu from years back, there was a claim that Chorus Men would be in Smash. This is possible as those characters are a trio and Ice Climbers were excluded due to limitations of the 3DS. Rhythm Heaven got a game not too long ago with Megamix and I wouldn't expect the series to die off in the near future. So it's possible. I'd personally be more excited for them if it was 4 years ago.

 

[TheAnvil]

Arms
Chance: 50%
I'd say it's 50/50. We don't know all the timing details, and a new/unproven IP is not something Sakurai would typically add. If not base game, then DLC seems likely.

Want: 100%
Arms is great.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 50%
It's one of Nintendo's most prolific series' without any characters yet. It seems plausible, but there's no clear-cut character choice which may hinder its chances.

Want: 25%
Haven't played a RH game, so it wouldn't excite me. But I wouldn't oppose it.

 

[Ura]

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:



https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

Could be a way to throw people off in to not expecting an ARMS character.

 

[NintenRob]

ARMS
70%
Not a guarantee due to how new it is. I think they would want to promote it. I wouldn't be surprised if Sakurai had preknowledge
Want 90%
ARMS was kinda fun so sign me up, I like most of the characters shown.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance
51%
I think they're more likely than not, I just question who?
Want 70%
I have no issue with this

Prediction
Daisy 15%
Paper Mario 38%

Nominate
Parabo and Satebo x4
Skull Kid x1

 

[Xenigma]

https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

Fascinating to hear something even that direct: it almost sounds like he knows they aren't in the base game and is trying to lower expectations in turn. Not going to change my rating over it, but that's less of a "no comment" than I would expect.

Concept - ARMS Character
Chance - 75%
This seems like one of those "duh" concepts. The timing development-wise doesn't seem an issue (both should have been in-progress in 2016), and Nintendo asking to have their new fighting game represented in Smash seems like the most obvious cross-promotion possible. I don't know how successful it was sales-wise, but having it appear as a main game at EVO Japan and Nintendo continuing to push ARMS in the same Direct that announced Smash seems to suggest it at the very least wasn't a failure. I guess the real question is if Nintendo was confident enough to bring it to Sakurai before ARMS launched, because if not, then I could see the reality where it's either considered too late for a non-clone character to be added or if it's just pushed to DLC to ensure the sales potential is there. There's also of course the idea of which character to choose: I don't necessarily think Spring Man being the character is as much of a slam-dunk choice as others from a game with as interesting and varied a cast as ARMS, but thankfully we're not rating that! Definitely expecting this to happen, and probably announced at E3 if I had to guess, but we'll see.
Want - 55%
I haven't played ARMS and don't much care to. Still, it gets slightly above an indifferent rating due to one reason: the potential trailer. C'mon, Nintendo, give me a sweet CGI trailer of Little Mac and an ARMS character fighting each other at E3. Y'know that'd be awesome!

Concept - Rhythm Heaven Character
Chance - 50%
Oh, the Gematsu leak. I still don't entirely know what to make of it, but I know from participating in this game how hard it is to guess which characters will actually make it into Smash, and while the lack of Chrom and Chorus Men had me thinking it was fake, the information we've learned since then suggests it may have been credible after all. If a Rhythm Heaven character was actually on the table, why was it cut, and will that reason stand up when considering Smash for Switch characters? 3DS restrictions is certainly plausible if it was indeed the Chorus Men, as is simply being too low priority to make the cut (judging by Bowser Jr. being a last-minute character), and neither of those reasons would be a problem for Switch. The bigger problem now seems to be the fading relevance of the franchise: their last game was 2015, and it apparently was niche enough to not get a physical release in North America. Maybe that's not an issue if Smash entered development in 2016, but it doesn't exactly bode well for how Nintendo views the games. I'm ultimately leaving it at a coinflip as I think it's a little too random an idea to expect it to be in Smash. That said, if I had to put money down, I'd say this is our Duck Hunt for Smash Switch: it would still be a major surprise, even post-Gematsu, and I have trouble thinking of any "likely" character that could be as unique.
Want - 75%
I'm not really a Rhythm Heaven fan either, but I can't help but find the idea fascinating. The potential uniqueness is high, and that matters a lot when it comes to characters you don't have an existing attachment to.

Nominations - Lucina x5

Daisy Predictions - 12.5% Chance, 20% Want
Paper Mario Predictions - 22.5% Chance, 62.5% Want
I wouldn't put Daisy up that high, but surely she will outperform Pauline, right? As for Paper Mario, whatever fans may think of the more recent games, Nintendo just keeps on making them. Surely that translates into a half-decent rating, although maybe not Captain Toad levels of chance.

 

[Quetzal77]

ARMS
Chance: 90%
It's probably the most significant new franchise since Splatoon, so I think it's a sure bet. The characters seem unique so that ups their chances.

Want: 0%
The franchise doesn't appeal to me and the character designs don't either.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance and want: abstain
I don't know anything about this game.

Predictions:
Daisy: 44%
Paper Mario: 65%

Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex), Neku, Elma, Mipha, Celica

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

ARMS Representation:
Chance: 80%

Given that ARMS saw positive reception last year for bringing something new to the Fighting Game scene, I think it's likely that we might see ARMS content for Smash Bros down the line. It depends on when the new Smash Bros started development and Sakurai may or may not have seen prototypes or concepts for ARMS during the development.

Otherwise, DLC may be another alternative if they wanted to see what ARMS' response was like first, before deciding to include an ARMS character.

Want: 85%
With Splatoon being confirmed to get the Inklings in this new game, ARMS is another new IP from Nintendo I'd like to see join the Smash Bros scene. Spring Man or Ribbon Girl would be my picks and I think they'd fit Smash Bros quite well.

Rhythm Heaven Representation
Chance: 30%
I'm not all too certain Rhythm Heaven may get re-visited for Smash Bros. It probably depends on whether or not the idea of the Chorus Men gets revisited, or another character like the Wrestler or Karate Joe get picked instead.

Want: 65%
Rhythm Heaven would definitely bring something different to Smash Bros, but most importantly I'd want the Ringside song in the game. "Wubba dubba is that true?" "Yeah." "WHOA, you go big guy!"

...However, I wouldn't be too upset about any absence for RH content.

Nominations: Cloud Strife X5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Arms character

Chance: 95%
It's almost definite.

Want: 30%
Could be cool but I don't care about Arms. Though I'd be fine so long as that stupid announcer stays as far away from Smash as possible.

Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 75%
They considered one for the last game, and apparently it made it pretty far into development because there was a character emblem in the game files. Ultimately whoever it is was cut (along with all of the goddamn music from the game, apparently), but they could still make it in now.

Want: 50%
Eh, why not? They've earned it.

Predictions:

Daisy: 40%

Paper Mario: 75%

Nominations:
Funky Kong x5

Minor but important nitpick: the Gematsu leak wasn't fake; it was outdated. It never claimed to be a complete list of newcomers, Chrom was planned at one point (to those who say he was only considered, Sakurai is on record saying he even made a moveset for him, so he was MORE than considered) and the Wii U version has leftover data for a Rhythm Heaven symbol located in the playable franchise section (as in, not the stage section, but the roster section). Plus the fact that it listed New Pokémon instead of Greninja further supports that the list came from early on in development.


Just wanted to point that out.

No, it still could've been fake. It made nothing but safe picks, aside from the Wii Fit Trainer, which could easily be explained by the leaker having backstage knowledge from E3 2015 (since the leak came out literally one day before the reveal trailer).Yes, Sakurai made a moveset for Chrom, but that doesn't mean he presented it to anyone. For all we know, he could've just thought it in his head or jotted it down at home. From the interview, it's pretty obvious they almost immediately decided on Robin, so I'm gonna guess not. Also, the icon thing only proves they planned a Rhythm Heaven character, not specifically the Chorus Kids. And I know they chose Greninja very early into X/Y's development cycle, but come on. "A Pokemon from X/Y"? If literally anyone else came out with a leak and that was seriously on there, they'd be laughed out the door.

But the ultimate reason why this leak shouldn't be believed is because there's no actual evidence. Every single one of these (except WFT, who like I said, could be explained by backstage knowledge) could easily have just been good guesses, and there's no definitive way to prove otherwise. And if they could prove it, they would have. The ESRB leaker showed multiple screenshots. When that wasn't enough, he showed a video. Obviously he had a lot more physical evidence, but the point is that he showed his hand. The Gematsu leaker just said words with nothing to back it up. And unlike other leaks, like the SFV leak or last year's Nintendo E3 leak, their "leak" wasn't so specific and wild that there's no way it could've just been a correct guess. The only character (except, again, WFT) who wasn't an "obvious pick" were the Chorus Kids, and they were one of the two that were wrong. So believe whatever you want, but to say that it's definitively "not fake" is wrong.

Does this mean an ARMS character is deconfirmed?:



https://nintendoeverything.com/arms...-single-player-campaign-comic-and-smash-bros/

“I think the correct reaction is to say ‘I can’t answer that!’ So, no.

 

[Zerp]

ARMS Newcomer
Chances: 35%
I don't think ARMS is a big enough deal yet for them to prioritize putting it in Smash, it's getting a lot of promotional attention but usually when Smash adds a character for promotional reasons it's for a 2nd party property like Fire Emblem or Pokemon, ARMS is first party so I don't think that's going to help it much. Still, there's a lot of demand for it and people are expecting it, I can see them wanting to throw the fans a bone.
Want: Abstain
I haven't played ARMS lol.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chances: 45%
Didn't happen last game (I believe the game has files suggesting Chorus Kids were planned at one point, could be wrong though) but it's definitely up there for series due to get in Smash.
Want: Abstain

Predictions: Daisy 23%
Paper Mario 72%

Nominations: Dark Matter Blade x 2
Dragonite x 1
Sans x 2

 

[CannonStreak]

Rhythm Heaven Rep:

Chance 80%

If it is true that there was going to be a Rhythm Heaven character in Smash 4, then I believe it is possible that they could get into Smash 5.

Want: 60%

Don't care too much, but I'd welcome it.

ARMS Character:

Chance: 70%

Would have been higher, but that changed after I read that recent article that said that someone (I forgot his name) involved in ARMS said he could not say anything about an ARMS character being in Smash 5. He also said that it might be too early for an ARMS character to be in Smash, so that is why I chose this score.

Want: 95%

I would almost surely welcome and give an ARMS character a try if they were in Smash 5.

 

[Erureido]

ARMS rep

Chance: 80%

Like with Xenoblade 2's Rex & Pyra, ARMS has the advantage of being very relevant right now, even being a new IP pushed by Nintendo. However, if Smash 5's roster was decided before ARMS' release, it could mean an ARMS rep will be left out unless it gets the Greninja treatment

Want: 100%

I haven't been playing ARMS as much as I used to, but I do remember having fun with some of its characters like Ninjara and Kid Cobra. Heck, Spring Man is among my most wanted.

------

Rhythm Heaven rep

Chance: 80%

A decently recognizable franchise that even had a rep planned to be implemented in Smash 4. I think this has a good chance

Want: 50%

Don't really care for the series that much, but I wouldn't mind seeing it get a rep in the roster.

------

Predictions

Daisy (Super Mario): 15.74%

Iconic spin-off character that also has some competition to face.

Paper Mario (Super Mario): 25.32%

Decently popular but also has competition.

------

Nominations

Professor Layton (Professor Layton): x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Arms character
Chance: 95%
The new Nintendo IP on the block they're pushing. I'd be shocked if we don't get one character.
Want: 75%
Varies on character

Rhythm Heaven character
Chance: 30%
This franchise isn't exactly a major hit. But they might have planned on adding a character, and there are two songs in the game. It could happen
Want: 90%
A Rhythm Heaven character would be awesome to see. Plus we'd get a ton more music in the game.

Daisy Prediction: 12.21%
Paper Mario Prediction: 28.48%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5