Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[a smart guy]

ARMS Newcomer
Chance: 60% It's a hot new IP, but did Nintendo know it was a hot IP while developing Smash? It's tough to judge. It's likely, but there is one thing that gives me pause. When the Inklings were revealed, they used their Splatoon 1 designs. That could be because they were trying to emulate the first Splatoon trailer, but it could also mean that Splatoon 2 wasn't one the developer's radar. Since ARMS and Splatoon 2 were developed at the same time, that could mean the development team didn't know about ARMS.

Want: 60% It's a new IP with colorful characters. I don't like it that much, just because I'm not sure how much longevity the series is going to have. The gameplay seemed shallow to me.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chance: 60% Sakurai clearly knows about this series, since he put enemies from it in Smash Run. However, can the series support a playable character? Well, judging from the placement of the series icon, it's likely that Sakurai tried to add one last time. For whatever reason though, they didn't make it. Still, it seems likely he'll revisit this concept. Further, the series got another installment since the Wii U version. I also don't buy the argument that the series is dead, since it didn't get a physical release in the West. Rhythm games tend to not sell as well in America, so not making a physical release was just a smart bet. Actually releasing the game in the West was a very big deal for the series, as it took a full year to localize it.

Want: 80% Can you feel the beat? This is a steady IP for Nintendo, and it's past time it gets added to the game.The only issue is finding the right character to represent it. Karate Joe is the obvious choice, but Chorus Kids being rumored throws a wrench into that, plus Tibby being the main character in the latest game gives him an edge as well. I would be happy with any of them

Predictions:
Daisy: 4%
Paper Mario: 28%

Nominations: Chibi-Robo x5

 

[DNeon]

ARMS Character

Chance: 85%

First new IP of the Switch, and characters are a perfect fit for Smash already, plus I think they might push for just a bit of cross promotion if they plan to release an ARMS 2 or bring any further major updates.

Want: 45%

None of them really grab me character wise (except maybe Twintelle), and the game itself was kinda forgettable. It's nearly a coinflip, but with most of the cast having mediocre designs IMO I'm going a little lower.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 35%

Sakurai said they were a shot in the past but when was the last Rhythm Heaven game? I think their boat has sailed ever so slightly, not to mention that there's such a wide variety to try and represent while not being the most inspiring of characters.

Want: 20%

I dunno, might just be combined with my pessimism for them actually making it but I struggle to justify a spot for them, and I already love Jiggs as a recepticle for any sound based movesets.

Daisy Prediction: 7%(.97)

Paper Mario Prediction:42%(.03)
I don't know why I'm doing the bracketed numbers, maybe its to protest the absurdity of the 1/10000 chance, maybe its the inner gambler in me

Nominations:
Andy x 5

 

[RouffWestie]

Arms Newcomer
Chance: 99%

It's new.

Want: 0%
------
Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chance: 80%

There's already proof one was planned for Smash 4 but didn't make it for whatever reason.

Want: 70%
I like Rhythm Heaven more than most modern-day Nintendo franchises. I think any rep could bring a realy unique fighting style.

Nominations: Arle Nadja ×5

 

[Deleted member]

Sakurai said they were a shot in the past but when was the last Rhythm Heaven game?

2015. Considering when the new Smash started development (2016), I think that's recent enough.

 

[AlphaSSB]

ARMS Character

Chance: 50% - Have a good shot at the base roster, but if they don't make the cut, then surely they'd be DLC.

Want: 50% - Depends on the character. Spring Man would be great, as he's the face of ARMS. Anyone taking his place I wouldn't be too keen on.


Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance: 20% - They seem to have been decently considered for Smash 4, but didn't make the cut. Could still be an idea in the back of Sakurai's mind, but they also could be passed up once again.

Want: 5% - Wouldn't complain if one joined, depending on who, but seeing a Rhythm Heaven character in the first place isn't a priority of mine.


Nominations: Minda x5

 

[Wyoming]

ARMS

Chance - 60%
Depends how the development cycles overlapped and of Sakurai got enough footage/knowledge of how they would work. But Nintendo clearly pushed this game for eSports from the get-go so I think a word of mouth was exchanged. I don't think they are certainties but stand a good chance.

Want - 30%
Eh I am more for them for their stage potential. The characters themselves aren't too interesting and I would prefer other ideas/characters instead.

Rhythm Heaven:

Chance - 30%
Ah Gematsu legacy. If we assume they were a scrapped concept then I think they have a shot as Sakurai likes to revisit old ideas from time to time. We don't truly know why they were canned, however, so I am giving them a low score for now.

Want - 40%
Quirky characters and I like the move set ideas around them. Only issue is I have no connection to Rhythm Heaven so I can't be too excited.

Daisy prediction: 11.5%
Paper Mario prediction: 33.6%

Noms: Black Shadow x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

ARMS
Chance: 70%
ARMS is a hot new IP that Nintendo is pushing, but thr timing could be a problem for making the base roster. Strong contender for DLC though.

Want: 50%
I didn't play the game so I am not attached to the characters, but they look cool and fun to play as.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance and Want: Abstain
I don't know anything about this series to form a fair assessment.

Predictions
Daisy: 11.5%
Paper Mario: 21.7%

x5 to Celica. Queen will regain her spot!

 

[DNeon]

2015. Considering when the new Smash started development (2016), I think that's recent enough.

Damn, I thought it released much closer to Sm4sh, like same year... 3 years old isn't that bad, but I thought 5 years with no next installment on the horizon was looking bad. My mistake.

 

[BluePikmin11]

ARMS:

After thinking about the discussion with Morbi and thinking about the idea in general, I feel that an ARMS character’s best scenario of getting in the game is DLC. I feel with ARMs being a new IP from last year, Sakurai most likely wait until the IP has some consistent success before being added playable to the game. But considering the game was announced to be a massive hit in 2017, Nintendo could recommend Sakurai to add an ARMs character to the base game to help keep the ARMs promotion coming (Noting Nintendo’s competitive support for a relevant example).

That scenario would be a similar situation to Sonic back in Brawl. But, since Sonic was added for very different circumstances such as high popularity that would call for an urgent development schedule change, I cannot imagine Sakurai rushing out to develop an ARMS character for the base roster. ARMs is just not as major of a deal as adding Sonic in Brawl to warrant the trade-off of adding more development time for creating a moveset and balancing, especially when at the time of Brawl’s release, there was never any DLC being planned for the game. But who knows?

If he does not get revealed when the Smash Switch release date comes near, he will not be in the base game. I feel in the case of relevance and promotion, Spring Man would likely be one of the first characters revealed for Smash Switch. Since Smash Switch was revealed alongside the new IP character Inklings, now would be the best time to promote ARMs forefront with Spring Man in Smash Switch. Otherwise, they can still be added via DLC. A character from ARMs will be in, it is just a matter of when and if we get Smash DLC at all.

---------------

Rhythm Heaven:

I am of the specific camp that believes the Gematsu Leak was the original roster draft for Smash 4 before changes got made due to 3DS limitations or moveset potential matters (Robin chosen over Chrom for example). I also believe that due to 3DS limitations, it kept ‘duo’ characters like Chorus Kids and Ice Climbers from getting in the game. With the hidden files of a Rhythm Heaven symbol and Sneaky Spirit in Smash Run, it all points to Chorus Kids’ potential inclusion in Smash.

Sakurai already sees merit in Rhythm Heaven getting a character. The main question is mostly if technical difficulties will become an issue again. I doubt it will this time. I also highly doubt that any other character from RH would get in. Because if there were going to be a RH character, Sakurai would have chosen another candidate like Karate Man to be in Smash 4 by now. The lack of a RH character in Smash 4’s base game and DLC selection suggests to me that Sakurai wants to keep the character idea of Chorus Kids and try to make them work in the Switch version of Smash this time around.

I will take the risk and say that a Rhythm Heaven character is an inevitability, with Chorus Kids as the most likely candidate chosen to represent RH as a whole. With Rhythm Heaven’s staggering popularity/impact/sales during the DS era, the mini-games that gained a huge amount of parodies in meme culture, and the recent release of Rhythm Heaven Megamix that would tie in well for a promotion while the 3DS remains highly marketed by Nintendo, now would be BEST time to include them.

Nominations:
x5 Octolings

 

[RosiePeaches]

Let me throw a curveball at this. How does Daisy only have 10% chances, yet Paper Mario is higher? Something does NOT feel right. In terms or relevance, she pretty much trumps many many characters on this list.

Even Dixie Kong wishes to have as many playable appearances inside and outside Nintendo as Daisy would. In fact, she got a lot more references in Smash 4 than I thought. Instead of one trophy, she got four trophies. More than any other non-playable character in the whole game. In fact, Peach even got a custom move called “Flower Bomber” and there are heavy references to Daisy in her clear and all star movies and images.


She is even one of the few non-Smash Mario characters to get an amiibo alongside Waluigi, and the most iconic Mario enemies.

Also, I would like to say that Daisy is a lot more popular outside the Smash community that you think, particularly with female gamers. I would not be shocked if the ballot helped her to finally be considered this time around. Especially now that both Peach and Rosalina are playable.

 

[Deleted member]

ARMS character

Chance: 55%
I'd recommend to be cautious on this one. For a new first-party IP, ARMS only had a moderate success, both sales and reception wise, and we have yet to see if it did prove itself enough to see future new iterations.

Want: abstain
Haven't played it so no real opinion on any of its character, but I would still be like "whatever" if one of them gets added.


Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 40%
Gematsu isn't everything. And afaik, Rhythm Heaven isn't known for having a properly established main character/mascot, but for having several, so that could make a significant impediment for making the most appropriate choice.

Want: abstain
Barely played to any game of the series, tho I think a stage based on it would be fine.


Nomination:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Predictions:
Daisy: 20.3%
Paper Mario: 40.2%

 

[Chromfirmed]

ARMS character

Chance: 75%
ARMS's a new IP from Nintendo.

Want: 50%
I think its inclusion is fair, but I don't care.


Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 40%
Its inclusion is in the air, but there are many more characters with more opportunities.

Want: abstain
I haven't played any game.

Let me throw a curveball at this. How does Daisy only have 10% chances, yet Paper Mario is higher? Something does NOT feel right. In terms or relevance, she pretty much trumps many many characters on this list.

Even Dixie Kong wishes to have as many playable appearances inside and outside Nintendo as Daisy would. In fact, she got a lot more references in Smash 4 than I thought. Instead of one trophy, she got four trophies. More than any other non-playable character in the whole game. In fact, Peach even got a custom move called “Flower Bomber” and there are heavy references to Daisy in her clear and all star movies and images.


She is even one of the few non-Smash Mario characters to get an amiibo alongside Waluigi, and the most iconic Mario enemies.

Also, I would like to say that Daisy is a lot more popular outside the Smash community that you think, particularly with female gamers. I would not be shocked if the ballot helped her to finally be considered this time around. Especially now that both Peach and Rosalina are playable.

Everyone has their opinion. Finally, Sakurai will decide who enters or not in Smash Bros. I believe that Daisy has quite a few possibilities.

 

[PK_Wonder]

I feel like we need to be nominating some individual ARMS and RH characters like we are Decidueye!

ARMS chance:
88%
Want:
49%

Spring Man feels almost inevitable, but nothing is. I don't particularly like the game and did not buy it after multiple demo attempts, but I have respect for it and its success. It deserves it even if I won't get excited for it, which is why my want is fairly high.

RH chance:
50%
Want:
49%

Being close last time only means so much the next time. I like this franchise more than I do ARMS, and a rhythm based moveset has so much potential for creativity and hardness to achieve mastery.

Predict:
Daisy 17%
Paper Mario 33%

Nominate:
Popeye x1*
Starfy x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or AT x1
Concept: Ms. Pac-Man alt x1

And yes, Slime from yesterday was DQ.

*Yes, this is Popeye the Sailor Man, a character that Miyamoto himself designed an early arcade/NES game for and that legend has it might have been our Mario if licensing hadn't been an issue (thank goodness it was). This is the only 4th party character worth talking about imo just for his historical ties, even though he deserves a sub-1% chance.

 

[RosiePeaches]

ARMS character

Chance: 75%
ARMS's a new IP from Nintendo.

Want: 50%
I think its inclusion is fair, but I don't care.


Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 40%
Its inclusion is in the air, but there are many more characters with more opportunities.

Want: abstain
I haven't played any game.


Everyone has their opinion. Finally, Sakurai will decide who enters or not in Smash Bros. I believe that Daisy has quite a few possibilities.

I know that, but I feel like these threads are heavily affected by personal bias. I bet tomorrow, no one is going to bother listing out the positives for Daisy and just bring up Peach's recolour and the fact that she was not in "real" games, as an example of why she should not be in Smash. Like, how does yet another Mario get a pass because he is from an RPG, yet Daisy for the sports games gets the worse treatment?

 

[NeonBurrito]

Let me throw a curveball at this. How does Daisy only have 10% chances, yet Paper Mario is higher? Something does NOT feel right.

It's most likely because Daisy doesn't really bring much to the table. Paper Mario represents an entire side-franchise and in terms of the Mario Sports / Kart / Party franchises, I think a lot of more people are gunning for Waluigi instead, especially because he's already received a good amount of attention from Smash.

In terms or relevance, she pretty much trumps many many characters on this list. Also, I would like to say that Daisy is a lot more popular outside the Smash community that you think, particularly with female gamers.

If popularity was that important, Super Smash Brothers would just be Super Mario Brothers: The Fighting Game ft. Characters from the Pokemon and Zelda franchises. Sakurai and friends tend to like to balance things out a bit.

 

[Ura]

The Rhythm of ARMS

Chance

ARMS: 50%
RH: 75%

You guys might think i'm wack for giving RH a higher chance score than ARMS but hear me out. We have no idea if ARMS was timely enough to make it on the base roster (not factoring in DLC of course). ARMS was revealed 6-8 months after Smash Switch started development meaning there's a chance Sakurai might have not known about the franchise or think he needed to add the character in. Alternatively, there's a chance he might have looked at concept art of the game and decided he needed to have a character like Spring Man in the game and made him a last-minute addition to the roster. I'm very iffy on this which is why i'm giving an ARMS character a 50% chance score here.

On the other side of the coin you have RH which by all accounts came pretty close to having a playable character in the latest installment of Smash. If Sakurai spent considerable time working on an RH character beforehand then there's a good chance he'll want to revisit the idea this time around even with RH not being that active nowadays.

Want

ARMS: 50%
RH: 40%

Don't care either way for the most part. I would want an Advance Wars/Golden Sun character over a Rhythm Heaven character personally.

Predictions

Chance
Daisy: 8%
Paper Mario: 73%

Want
Daisy: 14%
Paper Mario: 57%

Nominations

Andy X 5

 

[RosiePeaches]

It's most likely because Daisy doesn't really bring much to the table. Paper Mario represents an entire side-franchise and in terms of the Mario Sports / Kart / Party franchises, I think a lot of more people are gunning for Waluigi instead, especially because he's already received a good amount of attention from Smash.

Well I can easily see Daisy using some kinds of flower and plant powers - something that very few fighters in the roster even have. Plus, Mario Run gave her an extra jump. Maybe that could translate to Smash. I simply do not see Sakurai having three Marios in the game at all, no matter the moveset potential. That would be horribly overkill.

Also, Waluigi's assist trophy was recycled from Brawl, with a few tweaks.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I feel like we need to be nominating some individual ARMS and RH characters like we are Decidueye!

ARMS chance:
88%
Want:
49%

Spring Man feels almost inevitable, but nothing is. I don't particularly like the game and did not buy it after multiple demo attempts, but I have respect for it and its success. It deserves it even if I won't get excited for it, which is why my want is fairly high.

RH chance:
50%
Want:
49%

Being close last time only means so much the next time. I like this franchise more than I do ARMS, and a rhythm based moveset has so much potential for creativity and hardness to achieve mastery.

Predict:
Daisy 17%
Paper Mario 33%

Nominate:
Popeye x1*
Starfy x1
Captain Syrup x1
Concept: Tetris Stage or AT x1
Concept: Ms. Pac-Man alt x1

And yes, Slime from yesterday was DQ.

*Yes, this is Popeye the Sailor Man, a character that Miyamoto himself designed an early arcade/NES game for and that legend has it might have been our Mario if licensing hadn't been an issue (thank goodness it was). This is the only 4th party character worth talking about imo just for his historical ties, even though he deserves a sub-1% chance.

I know the historical importance of Popeye, but rating popeye violates the rules of the thread as characters must originate in a video game. Please nominate a different character, as we will not seriously discuss fourth party characters.


Also please do not start delving into daisy and paper Mario today, let’s stay on topic.

 

[Fenriraga]

ARMS rep:

Chance: 55%

Relevancy is the best thing an Arms rep has going for them. I find it to be pretty likely, but not an absolute guarantee.

Want: 20%
I enjoyed ARMS...
...
For a few days.
So far it's the only Switch game I've ever returned/traded in. Not that it was a bad game, it just... Bored me after just a few hours. It's pretty shallow for a full retail game, but at least it's not 1-2 Switch. I wouldn't be opposed to an ARMS character, but I'm by no means eager for one.

Rhythm Heaven Rep:

Chance: 20%
I don't think they're nearly as likely as they may have been in 3DS/Wii U. It's just one of those series that has kinda faded from relevancy bit by bit. It's still a Nintendo IP though, and it has its decent share of popularity, so hey, could still happen.

Want: 60%
Not foaming at the mouth for them, but I do like the RH games and would be interested to see how they'd play in a Smash game. Could be fun. Also have a friend who really wanted the Chorus Men to be real, so hey, more points for making my buds happy.

Nominate: Geno x5

Daisy Prediction: 20%
Paper Mario Prediction: 30%

 

[Opossum]

ARMS

Chance: 90%
I'm factoring in DLC here. Too bad.

Want: 100%
Sure. Spring Man's cool, and we could get other characters down the line once he's in. I know I'd love to see Min-Min, Helix, or Lola Pop as well.


Rhythm Heaven

Chance: 70%
I feel it's the most likely new Nintendo franchise after Splatoon and ARMS. Gematsu, man.

Want: 100%
Chorus Kids please.



Predicting a 12.4 for Daisy, and 23.2 for Paper Mario
Nominating Celica x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

ARMs Rep
Chance: 70% - For everyone saying it may have came too late, Nintendo has been heavily promoting this game since as early as Jan 12, 2017 and Sakurai probably known about it for even longer. They have more than enough potential for a unique move pool and they can represent one of Nintendo’s biggest Switch original IP.
Want: 60%

Rhythm Heaven Rep
Chance: 50% - Sakurai’s apparently toyed with the idea before, and a rhythm based character could definitely make for quite a unique move pool.
Want: 70%

Daisy prediction: 19%
Paper Mario prediction: 42%

Nominations: New story mode x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Arms
Chance: 80%
I know some people think they came too late to join the roster but it was developed in-house by Nintendo and wanting to promote their new IP I feel it's very likely they told Sakurai about it.

Want: 100%
Arms is super fun and I would love to see a character in Smash. They're all great so any would be fine but I prefer Min Min since she has noodles as her arms plus a dragon cannon.

Rhythm Heaven
Chance: 50%
It seems they were considered this could be their shot

Want: 40%
I have never Rythm Heaven so if they get in I don't really care but I'd be willing to learn about the series.

noms: Tethu X5

Predictions: Daisy-15%, Paper Mario- 32%

 

[ShinyRegice]

Any Arms character chances: abstain
Any Arms character want: abstain

Any Rhythm Heaven character chances: 12% abstain
There's evidence that it was supposed to happen in the previous generation of Smash in the form of the Gematsu leak and data in Smash Wii U. The fact it was planned then cut, however, also seems like evidence that it was low priority to me. The series got a new game since the last Smash but I'm skeptical that it's in a significantly better position than before the last Smash games, so I see it being outprioritized again.

Edit: people suggested 3DS limitations that could have held back this idea which actually sounds plausible as an alternative explanation to low priority, so ignore my original rating.

Any Rhythm Heaven character want: 15%
I'm not really interested. It could be unique at least I guess.

Paper Mario prediction: 19.72%
Daisy prediction: 13.16%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

 

[slambros]

Arms Representative

Chance: 100%
I am absolutely confident that the game's character designs will not be going to waste.

Want: 100%
There is a lot of potential for playable characters from Arms in Smash. Arms was a fun game so I'm definitely down for it!


Rhythm Heaven Representative

Chance: 45%
The Chorus Kids got close last time so I think someone from Rhythm Heaven has a better chance than they did last time.

Want: 0%
Rhythm Heaven is fun, at least from the demo that I played, but the concept of Rhythm Heaven characters as playable characters in Smash just doesn't appeal to me.

Predictions:
Paper Mario - 24.83%
Daisy - 15.42%

Nominations:
Dillon x5

 

[RosiePeaches]

Ugh, this is so depressing to see.

 

[Megaban]

Wew.

ARMS CHARACTER
Chance-90%
Very likely. It's new IP, fresh IP, Nintendo does seem to care about ARMS. So I'd say the character is pretty darn likely. Most likely Spring Man, maybe Ribbon Girl or both sharing one spot (like Olimar + Alph).

Want-67%
I do want new IP to b represented, but wouldn't say I dream about that includsion or something. Would be cool to see how they deal with those huge arms tho.

RHYTHM HEAVEN CHARACTERS
Chance-30%
Wouldn't say too likely for a rep, but Sakurai did acknowledge their existence, so possible.

Want-50%
Hard to say if Chorus kids or Karate Joe would fit in, again would be cool to see what Sakurai would do, but I on't really care much.

Nomination: Lana x5

Prediction: Daisy-20%, Paper Mario -40%

 

[PK_Wonder]

TCT~Phantom Zero tolerance on 4th parties is fine by me. I'd rather that than floodgates of garbage unleashed because of one exception.

@PhilosophicAnimal I dunno at what point you compile noms so it may be safer to tag you than edit. Change that Popeye to Gengar please.

 

[Graizen]

ARMS Character
Chance: 80%
Want: 100%

Rhythm Heaven Representative
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

I think one of the best choices for a new rep in the next Smash Bros is someone from ARMS. I think the best choice is Spring Man with an alternative outfit for the Ribbon Girl.

About Rhythm Heaven I do not think it's such a high priority, but Sakurai can make it happen smoothly. Rhythm Heaven always appears in Smash Bros in different ways, I think a representative would be super cool, but I will not be so sure.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[Arcanir]

ARMs

Chance 45%
The problem I see an ARMs character facing at this moment is timing, and I think it's an issue that isn't honestly given enough credit. We know that Sakurai started his new project after a short breather from Smash 4's DLC in February, which puts the start of development of Smash Switch between March and May 2016. We also know that Sakurai drafts his rosters within the first couple months of development as we've seen with Brawl and Smash 4. Thus, that means that the roster for Smash Switch may very well have been drafted somewhere within that March to May timeframe. Sakurai has also mentioned before with Awakening that if it came out too early or too late (about a 6 month timeframe for both), we could've been without an Awakening character, and while it may not be completely inflexible in that range, ARMs came out over a year after Smash Switch likely started which is over double the timeframe that he gave. That means that it's entirely possible that ARMs came out too far from development to be considered for playability, especially based on any sort of success or popularity as that would require waiting even longer to get back data on the matter. Many IPs and characters have missed the boat due to being released too far past Smash's development (such as Pikmin in Melee), and ARMs could very well be another unlucky one.

Now that doesn't mean that ARMs couldn't have been put in another way, if Sakurai was made aware of the character early in development and liked what he saw, he could still add the character. However, I don't think that scenario should be completely relied on as it relies on hypotheticals that may not come to pass, and I feel that at least until more information comes to pass the characters are that much of a certainty.

Want: 50%
Completely ambivalent, could be a fun character though.

Rhythm Heaven Character

Chance 50%
We know they were considered before, even ignoring Gematsu we have the emblem in the data to show that they may've had a character in the works during development. The question is what caused their omission before, and could the cause be enough to prevent them to be added into the game. If it is, then I don't think a RH character will be added, if it isn't, then I think they will be added as it is a series that has its merits. It's really just down to a coinflip since we don't know the full extent of what happened behind the scenes, and it can go either way depending on what it was.

Want: 50%
Again, completely ambivalent as I know very little about the series.

Nomination:
Lycanroc x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

I know that, but I feel like these threads are heavily affected by personal bias. I bet tomorrow, no one is going to bother listing out the positives for Daisy and just bring up Peach's recolour and the fact that she was not in "real" games, as an example of why she should not be in Smash. Like, how does yet another Mario get a pass because he is from an RPG, yet Daisy for the sports games gets the worse treatment?

Arguably because even if they decided to pick a character exclusively to represent the Mario sports games Daisy has direct competition with Waluigi as they'd likely fulfill the same role with both having a perfect attendance score in the spinoffs as playables and both having similar popularity(people eventually warmed up to Waluigi and he's full of personality).
Paper Mario meanwhile has an entire game franchise to fall back on with no competition for his place.

And yes of course these threads are full of personal bias; no one knows what Sakurai will do. Look at last time;
Ridley, King K. Rool, Chrom and Takamaru were considered highly likely and we instead got no new Metroid or DK characters, every lead character in Fire Emblem Awakening BAR Chrom and Duck Hunt representing as that 'retro rep' that everyone assumed would go to Takamaru.

Smashboards doesn't have a clue so I wouldn't take it personally. It's just people's opinions.
Personally I want Toad/Captain Toad because I feel having a spinoff game(or two), and being the fourth playable character(after Mario, Luigi and Peach) in mainstream Mario games alongside a perfect attendence in the most popular Mario spinoff; Mario Kart, trumps having a perfect attendence in Mario Tennis, but to each their own. Some people want Geno. I have no clue why, but that's upto them.

----

ARMS Representative
Chance: 55%
Bit of a weird one. Smash reps usually come from the console before, but it looks like Nintendo is porting literally everything from the Wii U onto the Switch almost as if it's trying to erase the console as it was the worst selling of all time.

Springman is the obvious choice and aside from Splatoon is probably the most successful recent IP.

Want: 40%
I've yet to play ARMS and honestly the game hasn't excited me from what I've seen in the same way Splatoon did. I guess it's a neat way of giving Little Mac a sort of rival(how was he not a secret guest character in this game is beyond me) with a boxer with superior range but likely less speed and power.

Could be fun to play as, although admittedly Springman's design is one of my least favourites from the possible ARMS cast. He's just a tad dull looking compared to say Min Min, Master Mummy, Twintelle, Byte & Barq and even Kid Cobra. Would put him above his female counterpart in Ribbon Girl though.

Rhythm Heaven Representative
Chance: 15%
The Chorus Kids leak got a lot of people excited for a Rhythm Heaven rep during the last Smash speculation, and they had...some...fanfare in the ballot, although as soon as the leak turned out to be fake most people stopped showing support for them.

Want: 50%
Depends on the character. I kinda like Marshall, Beat Girl, Rhythm Monkey and Rhythm Wrestler's designs, but I'm really not into a trio of Chorus Kids and don't really know Tibby(although their design is fairly fun). Overall I'd prefer a second Warioware character to Rhythm Heaven but I wouldn't be hugely against their inclusion.

Would definitely 100% want a Rhythm Heaven stage though. That's far more interesting to me than a playable character from the series.

Prediction:
Paper Mario: 33% People like Paper Mario's series.
Daisy: 15% People like Daisy too, but a lot of people are against more Mario characters by the looks of thing.

Nomination:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Arms character
Chance: 50%
Want: it depends if it’s Springman or Ribbon girl 0% if it’s anyone else >50% so I’m settling with 25%

Rhythm Character
Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

In general Sakurai looks for new series to add and these two are some of the bigger and more relevant ones.

Waluigi x4
Kamek x1

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Arms newcomer
Chance: 75%
I think it's more likely than not, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see it passed up.

Want: 60%
As long as it's not Spring Man alone. He can be an alt, or we can get him and Ribbon Girl as semi-clones like Melee Marth and Roy, just not solo Spring Man. If I can play as someone who's not Spring Man, that prospect sounds potentially exciting.

Rhythm Heaven Newcomer
Chance: 35%
Hasn't, like...nothing happened with the series lately? I haven't exactly payed attention, but I also haven't heard anything about it, which is noteworthy. Still, there likely was consideration for a playable rep before, so it's possible, but I would be surprised.

EDIT: Raised my score after seeing some other posts. I still find it less than likely, but I can see it happening.

Want: 8%
I have never played the series, have no interest in it, and from what I've seen of the candidates, none look interesting to me.

Nominate 2B x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Arms character

Chance: 80%

Right up there with Xenoblade 2 and a new Pokemon in my eyes, and apart from specific choices from it this is the final new thing I'll be ranking this high. I still personally don't think timing would be an issue, it's the newest Nintendo IP, there's plenty of potential, and I'm sure they're up for promoting it in Smash.

Want: 70%

Haven't played the game yet, but I want to, a character from it seems like something that would be a fun addition, and regardless I kind of like seeing more franchises represented, so yeah I'm certainly fine with it.

Rhythm Heaven character

Chance: 50%

I'll be cautious and give this a coin flip since it's not as popular as other Nintendo series and Sakurai could decide not to try again. But I think one was definitely considered last game, Megamix has happened, and it'd definitely be a unique addition, so there's a chance we'll see it this time around.

Want: 100%

Rhythm Heaven is my favorite Nintendo franchise not currently represented with a playable character. The DS game in particular is actually my favorite DS game of all time. This is in my top 5 most wanted, there's so much potential here, I'd be thrilled to see it the series get some more love in Smash and I hope a character makes the cut this time.

Daisy prediction: 13.40%

Paper Mario prediction: 22.18%

Nominations: Jibanyan x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I think you guys are seriously underestimating the chances of a Rhythm Heaven character coming to Smash, especially to those that can confidently rate ARMS higher than Rhythm Heaven while not considering the importance, popularity, and impact RH made for Nintendo, especially its fan-following in Japan and the worldwide-known meme culture surrounding it.

 

[AvionFinch]

ARMS rep

Chance: 40%
Okay, let's look back at how other IPs have fared when it comes to Smash. The Inklings weren't added as dlc for Smash 4, Olimar wasn't added in Melee, etc. Sakurai seems to like to make sure new IP's have some longevity before giving them a character. Some may argue Shulk here but for starters, Xenoblade got a very dedicated following (operation rainfall and all that) and one could argue Xenoblade is basically part of the greater Xeno series of games with Gears and Saga. Going off of how Smash 4 went, the roster was probably finalized about late 2016 early 2017, which would be RIGHT before Arms came out. Now, DLC is an entirely different story, that would be like 80%. Arms by this point in time has proven itself. But I'm rating for base roster.

Want: 70%
For Spring man it's more like a 60 but for basically every other character it's like an 80. My personal choice would be Dr. Coyle but that probably won't happen even as dlc.

RH rep

Chance: 80%
Definitely the most slept on character. Even ignoring a certain leak, due to the evidence we have I have no doubt in my mind an RH character was planned. The only 2 smash run enemies without a character to go along with it are the polar bear from Ice Climber and the Sneaky Spirits from Rhythm Heaven (the various Namco enemies go along with Pac Man.). We all know at this point what happened to Ice Climbers in Smash 4, and I personally believe something similar happened with RH. And to top it all off, after Smash 4 we got a new Rhythm Heaven game, meaning the series has recency going for it too.

Want: 100%
Yeah, I'm fairly biased but I feel my logic is still sound. I love the franchise and think its more than earned a spot.

Edit: forgot Noms

Nominate: Phoenix Wright x5

 

[jamesster445]

ARMS rep
Chance- 85%
Want- 100%

Rtyhymm Heaven Rep
Chance- 75%
Want- 100%

Nominations- Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Opossum]

Arguably because even if they decided to pick a character exclusively to represent the Mario sports games Daisy has direct competition with Waluigi as they'd likely fulfill the same role with both having a perfect attendance score in the spinoffs as playables and both having similar popularity(people eventually warmed up to Waluigi and he's full of personality).
Paper Mario meanwhile has an entire game franchise to fall back on with no competition for his place.

And yes of course these threads are full of personal bias; no one knows what Sakurai will do. Look at last time;
Ridley, King K. Rool, Chrom and Takamaru were considered highly likely and we instead got no new Metroid or DK characters, every lead character in Fire Emblem Awakening BAR Chrom and Duck Hunt representing as that 'retro rep' that everyone assumed would go to Takamaru.

Smashboards doesn't have a clue so I wouldn't take it personally. It's just people's opinions.
Personally I want Toad/Captain Toad because I feel having a spinoff game(or two), and being the fourth playable character(after Mario, Luigi and Peach) in mainstream Mario games alongside a perfect attendence in the most popular Mario spinoff; Mario Kart, trumps having a perfect attendence in Mario Tennis, but to each their own. Some people want Geno. I have no clue why, but that's upto them.

----

ARMS Representative
Chance: 55%
Bit of a weird one. Smash reps usually come from the console before, but it looks like Nintendo is porting literally everything from the Wii U onto the Switch almost as if it's trying to erase the console as it was the worst selling of all time.

Springman is the obvious choice and aside from Splatoon is probably the most successful recent IP.

Want: 40%
I've yet to play ARMS and honestly the game hasn't excited me from what I've seen in the same way Splatoon did. I guess it's a neat way of giving Little Mac a sort of rival(how was he not a secret guest character in this game is beyond me) with a boxer with superior range but likely less speed and power.

Could be fun to play as, although admittedly Springman's design is one of my least favourites from the possible ARMS cast. He's just a tad dull looking compared to say Min Min, Master Mummy, Twintelle, Byte & Barq and even Kid Cobra. Would put him above his female counterpart in Ribbon Girl though.

Rhythm Heaven Representative
Chance: 15%
The Chorus Kids leak got a lot of people excited for a Rhythm Heaven rep during the last Smash speculation, and they had...some...fanfare in the ballot, although as soon as the leak turned out to be fake most people stopped showing support for them.

Want: 50%
Depends on the character. I kinda like Marshall, Beat Girl, Rhythm Monkey and Rhythm Wrestler's designs, but I'm really not into a trio of Chorus Kids and don't really know Tibby(although their design is fairly fun). Overall I'd prefer a second Warioware character to Rhythm Heaven but I wouldn't be hugely against their inclusion.

Would definitely 100% want a Rhythm Heaven stage though. That's far more interesting to me than a playable character from the series.

Prediction:
Paper Mario: 33% People like Paper Mario's series.
Daisy: 15% People like Daisy too, but a lot of people are against more Mario characters by the looks of thing.

Nomination:
Concept: Zelda Newcomer X 5

Minor but important nitpick: the Gematsu leak wasn't fake; it was outdated. It never claimed to be a complete list of newcomers, Chrom was planned at one point (to those who say he was only considered, Sakurai is on record saying he even made a moveset for him, so he was MORE than considered) and the Wii U version has leftover data for a Rhythm Heaven symbol located in the playable franchise section (as in, not the stage section, but the roster section). Plus the fact that it listed New Pokémon instead of Greninja further supports that the list came from early on in development.


Just wanted to point that out.

 

[fogbadge]

lets see now for arms id say

chances: 50% i can see i going either way

want: 80% it be fun to play as most of them

as for rhythm paradise

chances: 50% i can see it going either way, they did consider putting one in smash 4 but who knows if they consider it again

want: 100% i love the games and i really want just about any character in smash

 

[Organization XIII]

ARMS rep

Chance: 40%
Okay, let's look back at how other IPs have fared when it comes to Smash. The Inklings weren't added as dlc for Smash 4,

For Smash 4 DLC we didn't get a single Nintendo newcomer (Corrin doesn't count he was made to advertise a new game, if it had been any other game we would have had a different character including the possibility a returning veteran) the only characters that were new were high profile 3rd parties (save Bayonetta but due to the ballot she doesn't count either). We can't really judge on the basis that they weren't added as DLC.

 

[Crap-Zapper]

ARMS Concept;

Chance; 50%

Only 50% because of when the roster was decided. If Smash was intended to promote ARMS once it comes out (Smash, that is), then I could see Nintendo, ARMS developers and Sakurai be discussing the gambling that were ARMS up-front, but if this was not the case, then it is more of a 90% chance for DLC.

Want; 60%

I would not mind. I think the concept could be intepretated interestingly, just hoping the excecution will be well done. Ribbon Girl is my favourite of the bunch, but I do not mind Spring-Man. I really just don't want them to be clones. I would rather have them as alts for some reason.


Rhythm Heaven;

Chance; 75%

If the Chorus Men rumour have any legit to it, then we could think that a RH character was planned in the past, and the series keeps releasing games like a chicken laying eggs. I do not know if the concept of Chorus Kids/Men with the 3 in one combo would be beneficial, or not, but a Rhythm Heaven character would be likely.

Want; 90%

I really want a Rhythm Heaven representer. I mean, even if it's not official, I think that the "Rhythm Troupe" concept of Smashified made me really wanting a Rhythm Heaven representer that way, because this way it would be a lot of fun, and interesting choices of concept that could be fun and adaptable.