Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

Concept: Rockstar Rep

Oh boy I'm going to have a field day with this.

Chance: 8%

Rockstar is a huge company. Nowadays when a Rockstar game is announced, there is a huge amount of hype and anticipation. It would make sense that arguably one of the biggest game companies would have a character in the biggest video game crossover (and biggest crossover ever in every way). However, there are some major issues for Rockstar's characters' chances.

First, the sexual content. I don't want to have another controversial discussion like we had with Fate, but there are some things I want to discuss. Yes Bayonetta is sexualized and she is in the game, but her games don't have a mechanic where you can pay hookers to bang them. A game like GTA is notorious for its sexual content and I'm not sure that Nintendo would want something like that affiliated with their brand and Smash Bros. Of course there are also characters like Jimmy and Arthur whose games are not as infamous.

Next, the topic of guns. I don't think it's a big issue. Joker and Bayonetta break this rule and if Sakurai really wanted to, he could be creative and barely have any guns in the moveset, especially for a character like Jimmy who uses a slingshot, skateboard, and whatever he finds around town. I can't count this against any Rockstar rep (or anybody) or else I would have to go against Doom Slayer's inclusion and I'm a big advocate of him. The point is: There is a viable moveset for many of Rockstar's reps.

My biggest issue lies with Rockstar and Nintendo's relationship. Now, there was GTA 1 and 2 on the gameboy, GTA Advanced on Gameboy Advanced, GTA Chinatown Wars on DS, Bully on Wii, and L.A Noire for Switch, and maybe some others I don't know. So there is that history, but not much compared to history on PlayStation for example. It seemed like that after Bully on Wii, Rockstar did not care about Nintendo anymore. They are an ambitious developer, and they want the most powerful hardware to handle their ambitious games. Nintendo consoles have not been the most powerful in a long time, so Rockstar has seemingly distanced themselves from Nintendo. There was L.A Noire on Switch, but that was 2017. Two years later and they are still quiet about the Switch. L.A Noire was just a test, and while Rockstar does take time with their games you would think there would be an announcement for GTA 5 on Switch, for example, by now. But, there is nothing and that does concern me.

In addition that, Rockstar is a western company, which means that they are competing with companies like Activision, Ubisoft, Microsoft, and Bethesda, all of which are much closer to Nintendo (except for maybe Activision). I don't see many western characters getting in, maybe at most 3-5, depending on how many characters we get, and that might even be generous. That means Rockstar's reps are competing against characters like Rayman, Ezio, Doom Slayer, Steve, Crash Bandicoot, etc. Not very good odds.

In conclusion, I think the chances of a Rockstar character getting in is low. It is possible, but I doubt it unless there are more Rockstar games for the Switch coming in the near future.

Want: 65%

My most wanted Rockstar rep is CJ. GTA San Andreas is one of my favorite games and to see it represented in Smash Ultimate (my favorite game) would be great. I would also be fine with Trevor, Jimmy, and John Marston.

Nominations:
Kratos x5
re-rate Geno x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Rockstar Games Rep

Chance: 1.2%
Rockstar Games is not a very Nintendo-Oriented company. A stupidly small number of their titles were released on Nintendo consoles. "But Cloud!" FF7 itself was not on a Nintendo console, but FF in general had a long history with Nintendo up until the 6th game, as well as plenty of other games after that. "But Joker!" While the Persona series isn't exactly a Nintendo staple, SMT has been for a long while. As much as I'm sure other people wish it weren't that way, Smash Bros is still a Nintendo-focused game. A Rockstar Games Rep is not going to happen for the same reason Master Chief won't happen. Obviously, Rockstar HAS been on Nintendo Consoles, and they're likely to do so more with the Switch's success among 3rd parties, but then there's the issue of which rep?

I don't think anyone could argue that GTA isn't Rockstar's biggest franchise, so a GTA rep is the most obvious choice- but then there's the problem of having a character from a game literally named after breaking the law in a game catered towards younger kids. I just don't see it happening. None of Rockstar's series would fit well in Smash.

Want: 0.5%
If it were an L.A. Noire character I guess that'd be kinda cool, but otherwise I just do not care at all. I'm not a fan of their stuff at all.

Also Red Dead 2 stole the best soundtrack award from Celeste which 1000000000000% deserved it more at the game awards last year.

Noms: Any Grass Starter x 10

Specter Knight prediction: 0.69%

 

[Artix]

Concept: Rockstar Games Rep

Chance: 5%
I don't see this happening anytime soon, especially since there are other western 3rd party companies that are more prominent like Ubisoft or Bethesda. Out of all the series that Rockstar Games had, GTA seems to be the most likely candidate but I don't think they would fit in Smash Bros. environment. While some of their games have been released in Nintendo consoles (I didn't even know some GTA games are on Nintendo consoles), I don't think Nintendo had any relationship with Rockstar Games and I'm not sure if any of their games are popular in Japan.

Want: 10%
Aside from GTA, I haven't played any other games from Rockstar before. And while I do want a GTA Rep in Smash, there are other third-party characters that I want in first before this one.

Prediction:
Specter Knight - 2.54%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki (Shenmue) x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Concept: Rockstar Games Rep

Chance: 5%
I don't see this happening anytime soon, especially since there are other western 3rd party companies that are more prominent like Ubisoft or Bethesda. Out of all the series that Rockstar Games had, GTA seems to be the most likely candidate but I don't think they would fit in Smash Bros. environment. While some of their games have been released in Nintendo consoles (I didn't even know some GTA games are on Nintendo consoles), I don't think Nintendo had any relationship with Rockstar Games and I'm not sure if any of their games are popular in Japan.

Want: 10%
Aside from GTA, I haven't played any other games from Rockstar before. And while I do want a GTA Rep in Smash, there are other third-party characters that I want in first before this one.

Prediction:
Specter Knight - 2.54%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki (Shenmue) x10

GTA V was apparently very popular in Japan, if that means anything.

 

[Sour Supreme]

Ooh. In my mind, its no doubt Nico or Trevor Phillips. Though John Marston would be interesting.

Chance: 5% Considering Rockstar says they don't even really know how to approach another GTA game in a more sensetive political climate, I can't see any of their representatives being rallied into a game that nerfed Samus' breasts.

Want: 69% Of course I want to gimp people with an empty liquor bottle off the edge of Los Santos Customs. He could have a Notoriety Meter that grants a nice dose of adrenaline upon reaching five stars.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Rockstar Rep

Chance 15%:A Rockstar rep is somewhat likely since they are a acclaimed studio and few of their games on been Nintendo consoles(L.A Noire, a few GTA spinoffs and Bully are ones come to mind),but it depends the franchise, GTA while the biggest ip Rockstar made would be difficult to tone down, no way they would pick ever Manhunt with the violence alone, Red Dead is likely but the games didn't appeared on a Nintendo console, Bully is also likely but the game isn't big enough to be the rep, and it doesn't help that their style of games is more grounded in reality than the other franchises featured in smash.

Want 40%:I wouldn't mind A Rockstar Games Character being in smash bros and I can see a interesting moveset working for CJ, Nico Bellic, Max Payne, John Marston/Arthur Morgan, Jimmy Hopkins and a few other Rockstar Characters.
Predictions:Spectre Knight 6.23%
Nominations:Valve Rep X10

 

[Sid-cada]

Rockstar Character

Chance - 0.5% - Rockstar has several problems. The overlap between Rockstar fans and Nintendo fans isn't very large at all. A western developer still seems like a hard buy. Most also seem like a struggle to make a good moveset for. I just don't see it.

Want - 20% - No thanks. There are many third party characters that I prefer over them. I have no connections with them and find them bland and uninteresting.


Prediction

Spectre Knight - 0.24% - Ain't he a spirit?

Nominations

Farmer X10

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain. Literally have never played Rockstar so I can't give a fair score for want.
Nominations: Blaze x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

You can really see how few Nintendo fans have owned a system from another company because man there's too many people here who haven't played GTA.

 

[Nemuresu]

Rockstar characters:
Chance: 0.95%-I'm usually not hesitant to speak well on behalf of big third parties out there, but I can't tell myself to do that with this company. Sure, they make masterpieces and best-selling games that should be properly credited for, but then there's the fact that Rockstar itself hasn't had that much presence in Nintendo consoles, and frankly, GTA is crossing the line as far as adult content in Smash goes to me. The series is all about vandalism and crimes, and I honestly can't see a GTA character and stage working out without feeling like a disservice for the series. Sure, they could just have someone from RDD (also interesting since Nintendo is inspired by it to work on the BOTW sequel), but I still find it incredibly unlikely.
Want: 40%-I suppose they could be fun, but I don't expect much from them, gameplay-wise aside from the usage different guns.

Prediction:
Specter Knight: 0.32
If Kyle Hyde got rather poor scores, this guys is just going to be on the same position.

Nominations:
Heihachi x10
Dante x10

 

[Nquoid]

Rockstar Rep:

Chance: 1%
Want: 15%

You know what I think doesn't help here? I don't think a Rockstar game has ever crossed over with anything else. Its what makes them such events. A new game drops every 5-6 years and is basically the biggest event in gaming. Plus it's hard to gauge how much Rockstar/2K want to deal with Nintendo. Yes we've had the fantastic Chinatown Wars and LA Noire on Switch, but I think the fact we haven't seen a load of other Rockstar ports means that it didn't perform to expectations. A Rockstar Rep would be huge, but I sincerely doubt its crossed anyone at Nintendo's minds.

But I love these games. Vice City and Red Dead Redemption are top 20 games of all time for me. I've owned and enjoyed everything they've put out. But I struggle to see them in Smash. For whatever reason that mental block exists. Max Payne and John Marston are the two I'd call the most likely, but I very much doubt we would get a GTA protag, mostly because I don't think the series adds much mechanically (also the violence, drugs, sex and swearing which make it the most M of all mature games we've discussed). Max Payne and Red Dead both have their slow mo mechanic which adds an interesting wrinkle, but also the kind of thing that would be hard to implement in Smash. I'm sure I'd be excited if it did happen and I was watching the trailer, but right now I can't picture how they get implemented which is my own problem.

 

[PSIGuy]

Chance: 10%
If Rockstar wanted in there's no doubt Nintendo would allow it. But they're probably not concerned about representation in a crossover party game. Their chances go up by 10 if they have any interest in the idea, but for Nintendo approaching them I'm not so confident.

Want: 50%
John Marston would unironically be a great addition. He's topped "best character of all time" charts along with Link, a cowboy archetype provides plenty of potential to expand on what he can already do (trickshooting, lasso, horses, throwable weapons, fisticuffs) and he'd reach Snake levels of "wait REALLY" and bizarre contrasts between his source material and the nature of crossover games.

...I mean technically I guess it could be a GTA rep but I don't think they'd mesh as well.

 

[warpenguin55]

Rockstar Rep:
Chance: 2%
The biggest point in favor of Rockstar is that they're well known. That's it. I don't remember much in the way of demand characters from Rockstar. I don't see Rockstar games coming to the Switch. Rockstar is a decently controversial company, Bully got some hate and GTA ... is GTA.

Want: 60%
I don't have much experience with Rockstar games, but with how popular GTA and RDD are, it would be a pretty big deal for a lot of people.

Noms:

League of Legends rep x10

 

[FancySmash]

Rockstar Rep Rumble

Chance: 5%
It could happen. Let's face it, the pass only seems 3rd parties this time around, and this would certainly third party. That said, I've never viewed Nintendo and Rockstar as close. GTA is their clame to fame, and it's hard thinking of a character that primarily use vehicles working with a suitable moveset. Of course, there's other violence in GTA that could work for a moveset, but that doesn't seem very alluring to me.

Want: 50%
That said, I could be perfectly wrong because I know essentially nothing about Rockstar Games. Yeah, I'm one of those people who've actually never played GTA, and the thought of a rep from the series... doesn't particularly interest me? But again, I'm gonna stay neutral since I've never played a game from this company.

Predictions: Specter Knight
...as in the Shovel Knight character? When Shovel himself is only an assist? 2.4%

Nominations
Captain Rainbow x10

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Rockstar Rep:

Chance: 1%
Rockstar are a major AAA company in the game world with franchises like GTA and Red Dead under their belt to bring in the money. I guess the main issues I could see are probably if the character would actually fit within the Nintendo universe. There's also the matter of which R* games have appeared on Nintendo systems, the big ones I can think of are L.A. Noire and Bully, which have long since passed. I don't see it possibly happening in Smash Ultimate's extended lifecycle.

Want: Abstain
I've no desire to ever play GTA, but I do prefer Red Dead Redemption. John Marston was a fun protagonist in the first game, but I've yet to try RDR2 (due to reasons). Safe to say, a R* character is not very high on my wishlist.

Nominations: Akira Howard X5

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Rockstar Games Rep

Chance: 5%
Rockstar Games may be a well-known western third-party company, but they still have to face the likes of Bethesda and Ubisoft who are more popular. As for which one will represent Rockstar Games, GTA seems to be the best bet as it's one of Rockstar's well-known game and if I remember correctly, the best-selling game as well, but due to some controversy in the past, I highly doubt Nintendo would go for that. The second would be Red Dead Redemption as it's the second well-known franchise and it had won many awards in the Game Awards. Still, I feel like none of them can really fit in Smash really well as they all look realistic compare to the more-cartoony feel of Smash.

Want: Abstain
I'm afraid I have to abstain on want. I have not played any of their games for me to give a proper rating.

Prediction:
Specter Knight - 1.28%

Nomination:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x10

 

[Troykv]

What even is your day? I know I can feel my day coming closer as well. In fact, it's coming in three days.

Micaiah day it's the one I'm expecting; it won't be something very cheerful, but I have fun writing and editing my previous posts xD

 

[GoodGrief741]

Rockstar Games Rep

Chance: 5%
Rockstar Games may be a well-known western third-party company, but they still have to face the likes of Bethesda and Ubisoft who are more popular. As for which one will represent Rockstar Games, GTA seems to be the best bet as it's one of Rockstar's well-known game and if I remember correctly, the best-selling game as well, but due to some controversy in the past, I highly doubt Nintendo would go for that. The second would be Red Dead Redemption as it's the second well-known franchise and it had won many awards in the Game Awards. Still, I feel like none of them can really fit in Smash really well as they all look realistic compare to the more-cartoony feel of Smash.

Want: Abstain
I'm afraid I have to abstain on want. I have not played any of their games for me to give a proper rating.

Prediction:
Specter Knight - 1.28%

Nomination:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x10

Bethesda and Ubisoft more popular than Rockstar? What world do you live in?

 

[Nquoid]

Bethesda and Ubisoft more popular than Rockstar? What world do you live in?

I can only assume this means in regards to Smash speculation?

 

[PapillonXtreme]

I can only assume this means in regards to Smash speculation?

Yeah. I mean what are the chances that they're going to pick Rockstar over Bethesda or Ubisoft?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Saber
8.03% Chance, 19.35% Want
Winner of predictions was RealPokeFan11 with a nearly exact 8.02%

Kyle Hyde
1.38% Chance, 33.12% Want
Winner of predictions was 3BitSaurus with 1.32%

Now for those with extra nominations

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 10
Awakining 5
DaUsername 47
Delzethin 5
Nemuresu 10
RealPokeFan11 10
Ramen Tengoku 5
Ultomato 5

 

[Neosonic97]

Falling behind schedule a bit here- we've not even started rating Specter Knight but we're supposed to be on Reimu's day.

:|

 

[Nquoid]

Falling behind schedule a bit here- we've not even started rating Specter Knight but we're supposed to be on Reimu's day.

:|

Days aren't strict 24 hour days, they last as long as there is interesting discussion happening.

 

[Neosonic97]

Days aren't strict 24 hour days, they last as long as there is interesting discussion happening.

I mean, it's been like three days, and considering this post from Goodgrief...

September 24: Specter Knight (Shovel Knight)
September 25: Ellie (The Last of Us)
September 26: Reimu Hakurei (Touhou Project)
September 27: Jin Kazama (Tekken)
September 28: Velvet Crowe (Tales)
September 29: Adeleine (Kirby)
September 30: Gene (God Hand) & Concept: Another western character

 

[Neosonic97]

...Uh, I don't know what happened here, it just doubled my post for some reason.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean, it's been like three days, and considering this post from Goodgrief...

Yeah, those are estimates, maybe I should stop using that format because we never actually end up following it through. For example, the last "week" of characters took about a month to get through.

Might be wishful thinking more than anything else.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over specter knight and ellie predictions

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Specter Knight mood:

Spoiler

I'll post my ratings in like a little bit.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Specter Knight

0% Chance

The best thing that will happen is Shovel Knight getting in. Specter Knight arguably is not even the next choice for a Shovel Knight rep, and there is no way he gets in before Shovel Knight. Even then, Shovel Knight is an Assist Trophy and at best he is getting a Mii Swordfighter Costume as DLC. I consider ATs a deconfirmation in all but one circumstance.

0% Want

Was Specter of Torment fun? Yes. Does that mean he should be in Smash? No. There are plenty of indie characters I would take over Specter Knight. I see no reason for him myself.

Nominating Lloyd Irving x 5

 

[Sari]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0%
Getting Specter Knight instead of Shovel Knight would be like getting Skull Kid instead of Link. With Shovel Knight being the main character of the series as well as the most popular character, I see no reason why anyone else would get in over him. If they really wanted to add a Shovel Knight character they’d just add Shovel Knight himself; it’s not like his assist trophy absolutely prevents him from being a character at some point meaning that they'd have to add Specter Knight instead. Even if we were to get a Shovel Knight character that isn't the titular hero, Specter Knight would have to compete with Plague Knight and King Knight. The fact that Shovel Knight is an indie game and Specter Knight is already a spirit hurts his already low chances even more.

Want: 0%
While I enjoy Shovel Knight there are a lot of other indie series I'd want to see get characters first. Even when looking solely on the Shovel Knight games, I'd rather have Shovel Knight, King Knight, and Plague Knight in that order followed by Specter Knight. I don't know what it is but Specter Knight is just the Shovel Knight character that I'm the least interested in.

Ellie chance prediction: 1.43% (unlikely with Sony being Sony and having a ton of Sony-related competition anyway, including Joel)

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Specter Knight:

Chance: 0% - He's got a lot of moveset potential and a very cool aesthetic, but he's not the main character of his franchise. And his main character, Shovel Knight, is still an Assist Trophy. I wouldn't say he's 100% prevented from being added and Sakurai loves his corveballs, but he's a Western 3rd party character and if the franchise is going to get anyone it will be Shovel Knight himself. He's even got competition from the rest of the Knights and has a spirit already, so there's a lot of major barriers stacked up against him.

Want: 10% - I don't have much of a connection to Shovel Knight and I'd rather see our first indie rep be one that has legacy, but Specter Knight does have a very interesting appearence, weapon type, and powers. He has potential, and covers the western knight archtype, an archtype we have yet to see in Smash. He isn't my first choice for a new character but he'd certainly be a welcome one.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Ellie (The Last of Us) - 1.18%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Ernst Stavro Blofeld

Double zeroes

Nothing to say other than what TCT and Sari have said. No way a character from Shovel Knight gets in before... Shovel Knight. Who I'd love to see by the way. And yeah, I don't really want to see third party characters get in Smash who aren't iconic, and Spectre Knight is not that. I might be more lenient if I had played Shovel Knight, but it's on the backlog and I'll get around to it someday.

Ellie prediction: 0.12%
Noms: Prince of Persia x5

 

[Wunderwaft]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I'm giving both the chance score and want score a double zero. Everything that I want to say has been said above, no way in hell is Specter Knight getting in before Shovel Knight. I enjoyed playing Shovel Knight but I won't accept any character from the game besides the main knight himself. Specter Knight is far faaaar below on the list of indie characters to join Smash that his turn will never come.

Ellie prediction: 0.71%
Nomination: Steve x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Specter Knight
Chance: 0%
Even if Spirits could possibly be back in the running after the Pass, if anyone from Shovel Knight is getting in, it's... the titular character. So I don't think Specter Knight is possible at all. I'd say more, but everyone else Greninja'd me by now.

Want: Abstain.

Predictions
Ellie: 0,32%

Nominations
Sora x 5 (not using any extra noms yet).

 

[DanganZilla5]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0.01%

This one will be short and sweet. Why would this even be a consideration? At the most, Shovel Knight will be upgraded to a full playable character. It would take a miracle for an indie game to get two playable characters. I can't see this happening at all.

Want: Abstain

Never played Shovel Knight even though it has been in my backlog for a long time.

Ellie Prediction: 0.20%

Nomination: Monokuma x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Specter Knight:
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
As stated by others above, if there was ever any need to add a Shovel Knight character, Nintendo would just include Shovel Knight himself, not this guy; and I share that sentiment. He's already properly represented as a spirit, doesn't need more, doesn't need else.

Prediction: 0.34 (Sony is not a company I'd ever see in Smash because of how stingy they can be as far as collaborating with the competition)

Nominations: Dante x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Rockstar Games rep pre-Specter Knight

Kyo Kusanagi x140
Captain Rainbow x122
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x120
Amaterasu x120
Rundas x115
Ninten x115
[Rerate] Micaiah x115

150 - 101

Kratos x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
9-Volt x105
Lara Croft x105
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x103

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x80
Blaze the Cat x80
Proto Man x75
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x65
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Prince of Persia x60
Papyrus x56
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Concept: Any grass-type starter x50
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x45
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x35
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x30
Thrall (Warcraft) x30
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x25

Under 25

Sol Badguy x20
[Rerate] Heihachi x20
The Blob (De Blob) x15
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x15
Riesz (Mana) x15
Earthworm Jim x12
[Rerate] Dante x12
Chun-Li x11
[Rerate] Steve x10
[Rerate] Sora x10
Ryo Hazuki x10
Concept: League of Legends rep x10
[Rerate] Geno x10
King Boo x8
Giygas x7
[Rerate] Quote x7
Urbosa x6
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x6
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x5
Akira Howard x5
Monokuma x4
Black Shadow x2

Captain Rainbow sprints past Rundas and Ninten and heroically takes second place. Zhao Yun and Amaterasu cut past Micaiah, Rundas and Ninten and tie for third place.

Lara Croft, Kratos, and Farmer climb past 100 noms.

Prince of Persia parkours over 50 noms.

Bandana Dee, Thrall, and No more stages beyond the Pass leave the under 25 club.

Today's newcomers are... *deep breath* Steve (10 noms), Sora (10 noms), Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass (5 noms), Ryo Hazuki (10 noms), Concept: League of Legends rep (10 noms), and Akira Howard (5 noms).

3DSNinja Just to clarify, what Blaze were you talking about?

 

[Jomosensual]

Specter Knight

Chance 0 - If Shovel Knight could only get an assist trophy I'm not sure why a lesser character from the series would get in. By far would feel like one of the strangest thing that could happen here. Don't really see any reason as to why this could or should happen

Want 0 - I can't say I'd be super hyped if Specter got in. I've never touched a Shovel Knight game so getting a character from that series which nobody asked for would be a bummer

Prediction: Ellie is a popular character from a series with a new game coming out. However, she's Sony so going with a 1.29 prediction

Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[SKX31]

Spectre Knight, I don't have any pop culture reference for this one. Sorry:

Chance: Microscopic. About the size of a hydrogen atom (1 in 10^-12.)

Want: 35 %

What more can I say that hasn't been said? If this was Rivals of Aether I'd be way more optimistic. But nope, this is Smash Bros, aka. the biggest fish in the fighting game pond. That said, I'm kinda intrigued by Spectre's moveset and abilities, so I could see it hypotheoretically work. Alas, gotta get an indie character in first (and / or Shovel Knight himself) before even taking a look at Spectre.

Prediction: Ellie gets 2 %

Noms: Lara Croft x 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

He's not from Hollow knight, might want to fix the title
Chance: 0%
"Hey, instead of the titular character who's Yacht club's mascot, is heavily requested by fans and we even went as far as to make an Assist Trophy, let's put in one of the characters that is none of those things! Wouldn't that be funny?"
I see no timeline where they actually do this. I know Spectre of Torment is a thing and that people like to see it as an entirely separate game (I wouldn't know) but that wouldn't give this reaper any privileges over the knight of shovelry. Heck, Spectre of Torment released quite some time ago. If anything, King knight would arguably be likelier, not that he's happening either.

Want: 0%
Those Shovel Knight DLC campaigns are still on my backlog. Regardless, he doesn't deserve it over the titular character. Simple as that.

Also I like Plague Knight better anyway.

Ellie: 1.18%
Bandana x5