Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ninjaed]

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

What is there to say that hasn't been said yet? If that had been Hollow Knight, my numbers would have been different but we really are talking about the one from Shovel Knight so... no. Plenty more better indie reps, like Shovel Knight himself. Sorry to whoever nominated him but it's not happening.

Prediction: Ellie - 2.1%
Nominations: Riesz x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Seconding that the title has a mistake. Anyway, Not Shovel Knight.

Chance: 0%. Faces impossible competition with Shovel Knight, who basically blows him out of the water in everything but moveset interestingness. And I'm pretty sure even if Sakurai suddenly had a massive raging bias for Shovel Knight to give it two characters, it'd be Plague Knight who gets in next. Shovel Knight himself isn't at the top of the list of potential Assist Promotions (Waluigi, Isaac, Skull Kid have comparable/greater demand and won't need royalties paid, for instance, but he is close) so I don't see why anybody would say that Specter Knight has a chance. Also, he's a Spirit, but that only matters for one more character. After that, I wouldn't hold it against him.

Want: 30%. I think Specter Knight had the objective best campaign in Shovel Knight, even if I prefer Plague Knight's. He has an interesting set of abilities one could easily make use of for a moveset. That being said, I don't think he should be the first one of Shovel Knight's candidates. This isn't Sans vs. Frisk, since Shovel Knight has the lion's share of the most importance and support.

Ellie will probably eke out 2.18%. Arle x 5.

 

[Calamitas]

A Specter is my Favourite Gardening Tool

Chance: 0%
I can really only echo what other people have said. There's no way he's getting in before Shovel Knight, and even if Shovel Knight were to make it in as playable, that'd still be a long shot. It's not happening.

Want: 0%
To be honest, I don't even remember which one Specter Knight actually was. I did play Shovel Knight, but I haven't touched it in months, and have yet to actually beat the main campaign, since I'm pretty much stuck on the boss rush near the end (speaking of which, anyone got tips for that? I'm not great at platformers). While I wouldn't mind playable Shovel Knight representation in Smash, I would only accept the guy himself as the first rep.

Nominating Amaterasu x5
(I'll probably really need to start thinking about another character to nominate once she's a lock for having her day here, huh?)

Predicting Ellie to be. . . y'know what, screw it, let's say an even 1%.

 

[Deleted member]

Specter Knight from the critically acclaimed Batman Arkham Knight

Chance: 0.1%

Considering he's already a spirit in Smash, I find it very unlikely Specter Knight would be in Smash as a full on fighter. It also doesn't help that Shovel Knight is an AT since it's extremely unlikely that any other character from the series named after him would be in Smash as a fighter before he could be 1.

Want: 15%

He looks cool, but I'd be pretty miffed about Shovel Knight having a fighter in Smash who isn't the main protagonist himself. Specter Knight may be a protagonist too, but when I think of Shovel Knight, I think about Shovel Knight himself and not really any of the other characters. It just doesn't really feel right to me (unless the reason was because Specter Knight will be the main protagonist for the next game but that's not happening anytime soon).
----------
Predictions:
Ellie: 2.01%
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Noms:
Zhao Yun x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I still haven't played Shovel Knight (I'm busy enough as is).

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Deleted member]

Plague Doctor: The Knight

Chance: 0%
If we didn't get Shovel Knight no way are we getting Plague Knight as Shovel Knight would 1000% be the first rep of his franchise and he's already an Assist Trophy when at best there's only two ATs I can think of that might get upgraded but even that's a stretch and news flash, Shovel Knight isn't one of them far from it. I don't really think we'll get any Indies at all (except for maybe Reimu) at that so Shovel Knight being an Assist pretty much kills all chances of Plague Knight happening.
Want: 5%
That said I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to Plauge Knight happening as he has a really appealing and interesting design plus he could have a fun moveset if given the chance. Otherwise I don't really care about him but his design is nice.

Nominate: First-Parties after the Fighters Pass x5

 

[DaUsername]

Featuring Knight from the Knight series
Chance: 0%
I'm not exactly sure who we're talking about here, but I'm guessing that they're either an indie character, not the main character of their game, or both. Doesn't really sound like someone that would be playable in Smash.
Want: 0%
I've said before that I don't want Shovel Knight or The Knight. That non-want also extends to every other character from their series.

Ellie prediction: 0%, though someone will probably give a rating higher than that because they don't know anything about Sony.
Noms: Ryu Hayabusa x5

Also I can't believe I missed yesterday I'm so disappointed in myself.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

We have Shovel Knight, King Knight, Plague Knight, and now we have 0% Knight.

Chances: RIP
Want: Abstain. (Would've been 50% anyways.)

I'm pretty much regurgitating what everyone else has said here. A character from Shovel Knight is not gonna get in before... Shovel Knight. He's also a spirit. I think I've explained myself well enough.

Ellie: 0.69%

The Horrible Goose x15

 

[Artix]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0%
There's no way we're getting Specter Knight as a playable fighter if Shovel Knight, the main character, is just an AT. If they really want a Shovel Knight rep, they have to make Shovel Knight himself a playable fighter first before Specter Knight. Plus, he's already a Spirit in the game so that makes it a bit harder for him to get in.

Want: 10%
I guess he's cool, that's all I can say. As for him in Smash, I wouldn't want him unless Shovel Knight himself becomes a playable fighter. But even then, there are other third-party characters that I want in first before him.

Prediction:
Ellie (The Last of Us) - 1.17%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

What Do You Mean, This Guy's Just The Second Boss???

Chance: 1%
Is Shovel Knight playable yet? No? Welp.

More reputable third-party villains like Eggman fail to get into Smash, so I doubt Specter Knight will get any luck either.

Want: Abstain
I haven't actually played the Specter of Torment campaign yet, despite having the Shovel Knight Treasure Trove on my Switch. I assume there must be some reason there that anyone would vote this guy up for consideration, besides being merely the third playable Shovel Knight character.


Nominations
Thrall x5

 

[3DSNinja]

GoodGrief741 Blaze the Cat
My boi
Chance:4%: Specter Knight is the most popular shovel knight character outside of well.... Shovel Knight. But still he is highly unlikely to get in as DLC.
Want: 100%: Specter of Torment is one of the best platformers ever made. It takes everything great about Shovel Knight and makes it better, with faster gameplay that feels like Ninja Gaiden x Mega man Zero. It is the best part of shovel Knight, and specter Knight could have a unique moves at and represent both a Grim Reaper esque character as well as a classical knight. Also he isn't a villain guys, he is an anti-hero. Big difference.
Nominations: Blaze x5

 

[NintenRob]

Not Shovel Knight

Double 0

Obviously we're not getting anyone before Shovel Knight. It would be stupid otherwise. And I already have high doubts and shovel boy. Being both indie and an assist trophy is not good for chance (but not impossible)

Prediction 0.3%

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Specter Butt Knight

Chance: oof
To put this one bluntly, if we are EVER getting a Shovel Knight representative, the first absolutely WILL NOT be anybody other than Butt Butt Shovel Knight. And I'm already of the mind that Shovel Knight's in serious trouble, given that he's an Assist Trophy already.

Want: Abstain. I actually haven't played Specter of Torment, so I'm not actually qualified to talk about it (In fact, I only have a very limited experience with Shovel Knight).

Ellie prediction: 0

Since the character I was nomming earlier, Reimu, is already a lock for rating, what the hell.

Noms: Blaze The Cat x5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Spectre Knight
Chance 0%:I don't think Spectre Knight would go over Shovel Knight due to the fact that isn't the main character and if Shovel Knight is Assist Trophy than what makes you think that Spectre Knight has a chance.
Want 5%:While spectre knight looks pretty cool I don't think it would be a smart idea to choose Spectre over Shovel knight.
Predictions:Eille 1.75%
Nominations: Prince of Persia X5

 

[3DSNinja]

GoodGrief741 Blaze has 70 noms already, add it to that total please.

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 Blaze has 70 noms already, add it to that total please.

Ah crap I thought she'd been purged, thanks for the heads-up.

 

[warpenguin55]

Chance: 0%
If anyone was getting in from Shovel Knight, it would be Shovel Knight. Even if Shove Knight was playable, my chance rating would still be 0%. There's really no reason for Specter Knight to be playable.

Want: 0%
Does Shovel Knight really need more reps outside of the knight himself?

Noms:
A League of Legends rep x5

 

[Nquoid]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0%
Want: 5%

I mean every one has already said it. In a franchise (game?) where the main character is an assist trophy, you don't put the star of the third campaign in ahead of them. We all want Sakurai to dig a little deeper when it comes to picks, but this is a little absurd.

Shovel Knight is a great game, with so much content. Whilst I am a little salty Nintendo didnt get an exclusive boss like the other consoles, it still debuted on Nintendo systems first and is playing off a lot of Nintendo nostalgia. But ultimately in the 5 years since it released, it feels like the indie space has moved on. We're not still asking for Braid or Bastion to be in Smash, and now with games like Hollow Knight and Celeste, there's a new group of indies that feel like they define the switch more than Shovel Knight. And even then, we're talking Specter Knight and not Shovel Knight which brings the score down even more.

 

[Troykv]

Plague Specter Knight.

Chance: 0%

Legic impossible in my opinion; this character depends in something that is outright disconfirmed so far; a playable Shovel Knight... So until the day AT are actually promoted to playable in the same game, the conditions for Specter Knight are impossible. Sorry, but this needs to happen.

Want: 50%

Specter Knight looks cool, but I don't have idea what can do. So I'm mostly neutral about him.

---

Predictions:

Ellie: 1.34%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[BowserKing]

Specter Knight

Chance: I would say 5%, because since Shovel Knight is an assist, it would guaranteed to make Shovel Knights fans upset (for a while). That is all I'm going to say about this.

Want: 55%. While the Chance of Shovel Knight and Plague Knight being in are slim, Specter Knight (just like the former 2) would be a fun character to play. Plus, there is potential of soundtracks that would be a great deal to listen to.

Noms: 2 for Black Shadow and 3 for King Boo

 

[Sid-cada]

Specter Knight

Chance - 0% - Shovel Knight is an assist trophy. He would get in before another character from his game. End of story.

Want - 40% - He'd be fairly cool, moveset wise at least. Still, it would feel wrong to not put him in before Shovel.


Nominations

Farmer X5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0.01%

Shovel Knight is the main character and will have priority and he's an assist trophy and spirit. So there's no chance for him to even be in.

Want: 10%.

No thanks. My preferred Indie rep is Reimu who has the best shot compared to the other indie characters.

Ellie prediction: 0.88%

Nominate Sol Badguy x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0.1%

I am highly doubting Specter Knight's inclusion due to Shovel Knight being an Assist Trophy. A quick equivalent I can think of would be Papyrus being a fighter with Sans being a costume still. I don't think that Sakurai would add a secondary character of a series when the main character is already represented in a lesser position.

Want: 10%

In full disclosure, I'm not a Specter Knight supporter. But still, Specter Knight looks like they would be so incredibly fun to play as, that there's no way that I could be upset at their inclusion. However, that's given that they make it in as a character, which I don't believe will happen. Specter Knight probably isn't anybody's priority for inclusion, especially given Shovel Knight situation.

Nominations: 9-Volt x5

Predictions for Ellie: 4.7%

This is like the first time I've done predictions since forever. Keep forgetting they exist.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Specter Knight

Chance: 0%
Like everyone else said here, Specter Knight has no chance if Shovel Knight himself is an AT. They'll have to make Shovel Knight a playable character first before considering Specter Knight, but even then, there's Plague Knight, who is more likely as the second Shovel Knight rep.

Want: 15%
I've only played a little bit of Shovel Knight, but I think Specter Knight looks awesome. Though I'd rather have other characters to get in Smash before this guy, especially if Shovel Knight isn't even playable.

Prediction:
Ellie - 1.08%

Nomination:
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x5

 

[FancySmash]

A specter of a chance

Chance: .1%
Yeah, in no way would this happen. With Shovel Knight being the main character of the series, Specter would have a ghost of a chance since the Shovel is only an assist trophy. Specter's not even the main antagonist, so if Shovel Knight did get in, someone like Shield Knight (his closest ally) or the true main antagonist would get in first.

Want: 0%
I just can't in good faith want this. Not until Shovel Knight is playable that is. It'd feel extremely wrong to add a minor antagonist before the titular character. It'd be like including Guts Man in Smash before Mega Man. I really don't have much else to say on this topic.

Predictions: Ellie - 2.01%

Nominations:
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Okau, Specter Knight is the most popular character besides Shovel Knight in the game. He won the vote for a campaign by a landslide. It's like wanting Zero more then wanting Guts Man. Just wanted to clear that up.

 

[Nquoid]

Okau, Specter Knight is the most popular character besides Shovel Knight in the game. He won the vote for a campaign by a landslide. It's like wanting Zero more then wanting Guts Man. Just wanted to clear that up.

Shovel Knight is Guts Man?

 

[3DSNinja]

No the guy above said wanting Specter Knight was like wanting Guts Man, which it's not.

 

[Ninjaed]

Shovel Knight is Guts Man?

Shovel Knight = Mega Man
Specter Knight = Guts Man

But since Specter Knight is so popular, 3DSNinja said:
Specter Knight = Zero, not Guts Man

So wanting Specter Knight before Shovel Knight would be like wanting Zero before Mega Man.

Also, the day seems to be pretty much over at this point, no?

 

[Jomosensual]

Shovel Knight = Mega Man
Specter Knight = Guts Man

But since Specter Knight is so popular, 3DSNinja said:
Specter Knight = Zero, not Guts Man

So wanting Specter Knight before Shovel Knight would be like wanting Zero before Mega Man.

Also, the day seems to be pretty much over at this point, no?

I would think so. It's been about 3-4 days which is usually how long one day lasts

 

[DanganZilla5]

I agree. Most people on here pretty much have the same opinion on Specter Knight. Shovel Knight would get in first and he's already an assist trophy, already is a spirit, he's an indie character, etc. I'm not trying to speak for the entire group, but if nobody else has anything different to add, it might be good to go on to the next day. Plus I got a lot to say about Sony and Nintendo's relationship.

One thing I would like to add is that it would be a crime if Shovel Knight, out of all the third-party characters, gets a playable villain first before a character like Sonic who deserves it more. I mean it's shocking that neither Shadow or Eggman are playable yet.

 

[Ninjaed]

I agree. Most people on here pretty much have the same opinion on Specter Knight. Shovel Knight would get in first and he's already an assist trophy, already is a spirit, he's an indie character, etc. I'm not trying to speak for the entire group, but if nobody else has anything different to add, it might be good to go on to the next day. Plus I got a lot to say about Sony and Nintendo's relationship.

One thing I would like to add is that it would be a crime if Shovel Knight, out of all the third-party characters, gets a playable villain first before a character like Sonic who deserves it more. I mean it's shocking that neither Shadow or Eggman are playable yet.

Shadow is more understandable: he's an assist trophy, he'd likely be a clone or semi-clone... but not Eggman! That guy screams "smash potential" with a unique moveset, is super recognisable and all! He's one of the most iconic villains in gaming history! Yet he's not even an assist trophy? Wow... Maybe Nintendo has grown a hate boner against villains.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Shadow is understandable: he's an assist trophy, he'd be a clone or semi-clone... but not Eggman! That guy screams "smash potential" with a unique moveset, is super recognisable and all! He's one of the most iconic villains in gaming history! Yet he's not even an assist trophy? Wow... Maybe Nintendo has grown a hate boner against villains.

I thought Nintendo always prioritised the protagonists before the antagonists.

 

[Ninjaed]

I thought Nintendo always prioritised the protagonists before the antagonists.

Sure but you still have a few iconic ones: Bowser, Ganondorf, Ridley, KKR, Wolf, Meta Knight... and that's basically it? You could add Dark Samus though it's not that iconic, or Dark Pit for a real big stretch.
That's 6 (8 if you stretch it) antagonists out of 74 characters. Less than 10%. We could use some villainous love for a change, I think.

 

[3DSNinja]

Specter Knight is more of an anti-hero than a villain. Play Specter of Torment and see what I mean.
The only really villainous people in Shovel Knight are Enchantress, King Knight, and Treasure Knight.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Rate Ellie and precuts reimu

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain: I haven't played Last of Us.
Nominations: Blaze x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Ellie

Chance 1% - Ellie is a popular character from a well received series with a new game coming out soon. Usually that feels like a fairly solid recipe for Smash hype. It's too bad Last of Us is owned and created by Naughty Dog, which mean that much like Nathan Drake, she's a Sony character who basically has no shot because of that. If Last of Us was owned by say, Capcom, I feel like there would be a really high chance she could get in the game, I might even get a little bold and put her near the top of my chance scores. But the fact of the matter is she's not.

Want 80% - I'd be pretty psyched up over Ellie getting in the game. I really enjoyed the first Last of Us game and I have number 2 pre ordered. Can't wait for February 21st. Have the score just a little lower because I'm not sure about how exciting the moveset might be, but that's all I got for concerns about how she would translate to the game

Prediction Reimu - 8.72

Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Atreus!

Chance: 0%
I'm confident in saying that Sony characters have nearly no chance. Sony isn't great at the whole "playing with others" game, at least this generation. Who knows, maybe they'll be second fiddle next gen and that forces their hand - though given that they won this gen due to all their top notch exclusives and that's not looking to change, I doubt it.

As for Ellie personally, I really only see them going for Kratos or Nathan Drake to represent Sony, those two are really their mascots. Even if they wanted to rep The Last of Us, I kinda see Joel as the protag there - though that might change when Part II comes out.

As for want, I'll abstain. Seeing a Sony character seems so impossible that I can't bring myself to comprehend how I'd feel about that. The Last of Us is one of the best games ever made so of course I wouldn't be against its inclusion, but at the same time I'd wonder how and why Ellie made it in over everyone else.

Also I predict a similar want score to Rockstar rep. Lemme tell ya, I'm the biggest Nintendo fanboy I know, but you're missing out if you only get one console.

Reimu prediction: after Terry, I'm going with a bold 23.5%

Noms: Prince of Persia x5

 

[NintenRob]

Ugh
Double 0
Not every character from a popular game should be in Smash. Yeah there's a new game coming out. But it's never had a Nintendo release and it's never released in Japan. I just don't see this happening at all.


Nominate No more stages x5

Reimu prediction 14%