Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DanganZilla5]

^ That would definitely be a deconfirmation for the 5th fighter and probably for the next couple fighters after that.

 

[Ninjaed]

RIP Tracer and any Blizzard character for now.

As for Dante, thanks for the tweet. That may have changed since, he really wasn't specific - but seemed to imply it was such a long shot back then that thinking he could be in was funny.
Hat Kid and Cuphead, I wouldn't bet on it so far.

 

[GoodGrief741]

"considered-disconfirmed Dante and Hat Kid."

Why are those two considered disconfirmed? I know that one of the top guys working on DMC said he wasn't going to be in Smash, but that was a while ago and with the announcement of new DLC characters, Nintendo could have recently or in the future go to Capcom and ask for Dante to be in Smash.

Aouch.

Although I agree with danganzilla, why is Dante considered disconfirmed? With the newfound focus on 3rd party characters, I'd say he has more than a shot now. Same for Hat Kid, should Nintendo decide to give us an indie rep.

At that point, Dante had been said not to be in Smash by producer Matt Walker and the Hat Kids devs had asked fans to campaign for her. We still rated them because the people who nominated them asked for it, since they were at the top of the list. I'd say both of them are back in play now.

Since we're talking about decomfirmations, does this count as one? At least for this pass?

Blizzard says Nintendo can have any Overwatch character they want for Smash Bros. https://t.co/bA0UxgTkey pic.twitter.com/5LPs0mhQ4p

— GoNintendoTweet (@GoNintendoTweet) October 2, 2019

For Fighter #5 I'd say it does. For after that, it would depend on whether it's going to be a Pass or individual fighters. If it's a Pass then it's safe to say that they're all already negotiated for. But still too many unknown factors to say.

 

[Deleted member]

Anyways uh, Ellie from The Last of Us

Chance: 0.1%
As others have said they're a Sony character and simply put Nintendo and Sony has never had a good relationship and I doubt they're starting now though even if they were to start having a good relationship they wouldn't put Ellie in over a plethora of their other characters but I wouldn't entirely rule it out either cause we've been blind-sided before (Joker and Terry mainly) though with that said I'm confident enough in her not getting in to never bring her up normally or in most situations. She's almost certainly not getting in.

Want: 0%
I never played The Last of Us to say if I would want Ellie or not but from an outsiders perspective she looks very uninteresting and bland as nothing stands out immediately about her or the game. I guess she could be fun but why not go for Resident Evil or other survival games first? I'll pass on that, Thanks.

Prediction for Reimu: 25%

Nomination: Concept: First Parties after the pass x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ellie

Chance - 0% - Sony's been tough on other third parties, and while there may be some fame on her, I definitely think there are bigger icons. I don't see her happening, at all.

Want - 30% - There are many characters that I would prefer to her. I have no interest in her in the first place.


Prediction

Reimu - 6.35% - I have no idea...

Nominations

Farmer X5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Ellie

Chance: 0%
Sony still isn't one to really want to play with others given that they've barred crossplay with the Playstation until just very recently. They probably even more protective of their IPs and wouldn't want to share with Nintendo in the first place. Even if they did come to the table, there are several more iconic and beloved characters/series that either they would want to promote or Nintendo would want to include.

Want: 0%
She really doesn't bring anything interesting to the table. If a character from a Survival/Horror game is desired, there are far better picks that would give much less resistance in getting and excite more people. If a Sony character is desired, there are much more interesting picks from their pool as well.

 

[Neosonic97]

It's been 3 days since the last post. When's the new day coming?

 

[ProfPeanut]

It's been 3 days since the last post. When's the new day coming?

We're still going another whole week to discuss a normal human from a Playstation exclusive that only 5% of people on Smashboards have actually played. OP is still moving out/waiting for more replies/dealing with a family matter, you see.


Yeah She's Gay. Keep Scrolling.

Chance: 15%
The Last of Us 2 is shaping up to be the PS4's final megaton hit, and Sony's going full-throttle in making sure it has all the exposure it could ask for. This sequel really does feel like the newest culmination of all of Naughty Dogs' efforts and history, which is something Smash could imaginably want to represent. So while everyone's understandably doubtful of Sony's ability to share IPs, I'm not quite so certain that they'd immediately turn down free advertising offered by their own competitor.

Unlike other Sony franchises, The Last of Us never got onto the All-Star Battle Royale, - but its characters don't lend themselves too much to exciting moveset prospects. Joel would have already struggled as a poor man's Nathan Drake, but Ellie brings even less to the table besides being a plot driver. She can fight, certainly, but it wouldn't be as strong of an argument as simply electing TLoU as a representation of cinematic gaming.

Want: 20%
While she's not the top pick among Sony's exclusives. (that'd be Kratos), Ellie's not exactly a nobody in the grand scheme of things. Having her show up in Smash of all things would be a pretty great surprise if it happened, especially given the obstacles she'd have to overcome. Of course, Joel's probably the likelier TLoU rep, but he didn't get voted up first for some reason.


Nominations
Thrall x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

We're still going another whole week to discuss a normal human from a Playstation exclusive that only 5% of people on Smashboards have actually played. OP is still moving out/waiting for more replies/dealing with a family matter, you see.


Yeah She's Gay. Keep Scrolling.

Chance: 15%
The Last of Us 2 is shaping up to be the PS4's final megaton hit, and Sony's going full-throttle in making sure it has all the exposure it could ask for. This sequel really does feel like the newest culmination of all of Naughty Dogs' efforts and history, which is something Smash could imaginably want to represent. So while everyone's understandably doubtful of Sony's ability to share IPs, I'm not quite so certain that they'd immediately turn down free advertising offered by their own competitor.

Unlike other Sony franchises, The Last of Us never got onto the All-Star Battle Royale, - but its characters don't lend themselves too much to exciting moveset prospects. Joel would have already struggled as a poor man's Nathan Drake, but Ellie brings even less to the table besides being a plot driver. She can fight, certainly, but it wouldn't be as strong of an argument as simply electing TLoU as a representation of cinematic gaming.

Want: 20%
While she's not the top pick among Sony's exclusives. (that'd be Kratos), Ellie's not exactly a nobody in the grand scheme of things. Having her show up in Smash of all things would be a pretty great surprise if it happened, especially given the obstacles she'd have to overcome. Of course, Joel's probably the likelier TLoU rep, but he didn't get voted up first for some reason.


Nominations
Thrall x5

I had pneumonia.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I had pneumonia.

Dang, that doesn't sound great. Are you feeling well now?

 

[Calamitas]

I had pneumonia.

Honestly, just take all the time you need. Personal issues like health are way more important than some silly forum game.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Honestly, just take all the time you need. Personal issues like health are way more important than some silly forum game.

Dang, that doesn't sound great. Are you feeling well now?

I’m better now. Tbh not even the worst pneumonia i have had but still drained me and I have been sleeping most of the past few days.

Day will end around noon btw.

 

[Plank08]

I’m just gonna abstain from Ellie as a I don’t really have any experience with her game.
Sackboy x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Forgot to abstain earlier, so I'm abstaining now.

Goose x5

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Ellie

Chance: 0.1%
If we get a Playstation Exclusive character, why would it be her? I don't personally see her as any sort of poster child for Playstation by any means.

Want: 40%
I don't care about the game at all, but she gets the obligatory "I like female characters" 30%, plus an extra 10% for being gay. LGBT rep in Smash would be awesome, and we don't really have any at the moment. (Unless you count Kirby/Meta Knight for being nonbinary in Japan, or something like that.)

Reimu Prediction: 10.14%

Any grass type rep x 10 (using my extra noms)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I’m better now. Tbh not even the worst pneumonia i have had but still drained me and I have been sleeping most of the past few days.

Day will end around noon btw.

Yeah so I passed out.

Day over new day.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I hope you're feeling alright!
Who do we do predictions for today?

 

[Deleted member]

Who do we do predictions for today?

I believe the next character is Jin from Tekken.

I'll post my ratings later not because I have a lot to write about but because I don't have the time to write it down yet.

 

[Troykv]

I hope you're feeling alright!
Who do we do predictions for today?

Jin Kazama (Tekken)

 

[Ninjaed]

How do you know who to predict for? I checked the first page and couldn't find anything there.

 

[Plank08]

Chance 10%
Reimu has a lot of history and Touhou is definitely one of the more iconic indie games along with Minecraft and Cave Story... but I still don’t think it’s happening in the grand scheme of things.
Sackboy x5

 

[Troykv]

How do you know who to predict for? I checked the first page and couldn't find anything there.

I checked some older posts from GoodGrief

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 35%
Reimu's a rather interesting case. She's a doujin character (equivalent to an indie character in the West), but one of the oldest and iconic characters of pop-culture in Japan. Her games have been going strong since 1996 and maintains a strong fanbase in Japan, but still have a decent presence in the West. However, Touhou hasn't really broken out into the mainstream media in the West until recently when Touhou started making a few more appearances outside the doujin-sphere. Tying into the "Have they appeared on Nintendo system" question - one example comes to mind the Taiko no Tatsujin 3DS game where Reimu appears as a guest (Bizarrely alongside Kirby and PHOENIX WRIGHT), and several Touhou doujin games have also made the jump to the Switch too. In addition, I remember they're bringing over one of the official fighting games - Antimony of Common Flowers to the Switch as well; just in case if these doujin-games aren't counted.

As for her moveset - Reimu can easily fit a fighting game environment as seen in the official fighers, but also bring her own spin on things since Danmaku are pretty much projectile spam up to 11thousand. Bombs, Spell Cards, the Yin-Yang Orb and striking opponents with her gohei... Yep, Reimu has plenty of tools to work with for a Smash Bros friendly moveset, as well as the ability to fly - which could be activated by jumping and allows her to float in a similar way to Pit's old Up-Special while still allowing her to attack and not hamper her recovery.

Ever since , Reimu doesn't seem so after all. The only problems I could see is whether Sakurai and Nintendo would go to ZUN himself and ask for permission for Reimu as a fighter in a big commercial work like Smash Bros, or if ZUN doesn't want his characters in Smash Bros after one particular incident. But if there's any possibility for a sleeper-hit indie character to surprise everyone, I'm definitely suspecting Reimu's chances have gone up significantly for beyond Fighters Pass 1.

Want: 80%
Touhou is a fun, if insanely difficult series. The characters and world have stood the test of time for a reason thanks to the fanbase and doujinshi adding life to the world (which ZUN is absolutely fine with), and the music for the series is top-notch.

Reimu's inclusion would be an incredibly pleasant surprise, even if she isn't in my top-10. I've been aware of Touhou for at least the past decade (GOOD GOD I'M OLD) and have played a few games in the series, so I'm very familar with Touhou and its legacy. So yeah, I'd be pretty keen for her if she got an invite to Ultimate.

 

[Ninjaed]

Reimu Hakurei

Chance: 20%
People underestimate how big of a fanbase Touhou has. Sure it's not as big as Zelda, but it easily floods ComiKet with its fans every time. It's not necessarily a game series people have played, but a series people have heard of. Usually through its fan-made content. That makes it influential and thus deserving consideration. Though that's not enough obviously. So let's see:

Does it have history? Heck yes it does. It's a long-standing indie franchise before indie was even a thing. And is still relevant today. Its musics have spread over the internet. Does Reimu have moveset potential? You bet she has! Gensokyo is the land of crazy superpowered hat-wearing waifus. Would it be fun, would it properly represent the bullet hell franchise? Yes and yes.

I could go on... but there is one major issue: no history with Nintendo. Maybe it does not completely kill her chances but it at least severely diminishes them. Still, Sakurai could surprise us. I doubt it, but the possibility definitely exists.

Want: 10%
I've never actually played Touhou, since its games usually stay in Japan. That said, I've listened to plenty of its musics, watched videos, etc. But I couldn't in good faith fully cheer for them when their history with Nintendo is inexistent.

Predictions: Jin Kazama (Tekken) - 1.13%

Nominations: Riesz x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain because I have literally no idea what Touhou is.
Nominations: Blaze x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Reimu Hakurei, Shrine Maiden of Paradise

Chance: 20% - Reimu popularity and influence in Japan is undeniable, and despite being very Japanese has managed to make a reasonable splash in the western scene as well. It has had mindblowing amounts of fan artwork and several fan-made games have even made their way to the Switch. Furthermore she is from an unrepresented genre and has plenty of potential for a moveset with her spellcards and such. It also has a legacy going back to the mid 1990s, and despite being technically indie it has had a long and storied legacy of its' own. Hell, eve those who don't play the games have become enamoured by the fan art, the music, and so forth, it really has a unique appeal and unique circumstance. ZUN's even a fan of the Kirby games, some of his bosses (such as the unnamed Giant Catfish) and other characters being directly inspired by it, and even allowing them to appear in a crossover together. So ZUN seems like the kind of guy who would be on board with including them in a game made by the producer who's worked on several big Kirby titles. She's a character who would have good sales, at least in Japan. However, I don't want to overplay her.

She hasn't broken into the mainstream in the west and is still considered a literal who by a lot of people. Despite the dedicated fanbase, said fanbase tends to stay in their rather tight bubble, and there's divide between the hard core game players and those just there for the doujin aspects in the western community, so Touhou doesn't tend to spread much outside its' sphere. If it were back in 2009-2011 during Touhou's big heyday exposure would've become much more likely, since people were discovering it during that time and its' memes were much more prevalent. In recent years its' popularity has waned and a lot of the fandom has moved to other franchises that have, in a way, tried to jump in on its' territory (despite being owned by big companies like Kadokawa). Kantai Collection, Granblue Fantasy, Fate GO, and even Azur Lane have splintered the fanbase and a lot of people have moved on from Touhou as a result, so Touhou is in an unfortunate decline. Even with the games coming to Switch, we still have yet to see a main line Touhou title reach Nintendo systems (unless something was announced, feel free to correct me here). Still, relevance doesn't determine character chances if there is enough demand, and Reimu is still receiving popular games, so she is a surprisingly strong contender who could surprise us.

Want: 20% - I used to be super into the characters for awhile when I first entered High School (10 years ago, wow!), hell admittingly she was even my waifu for awhile. I was also involved with one part of the fanbase so unlike a lot of characters of her type I do have some history with her. I do think she would be a very novel character and she would bring some good music (would love to see Phantom Ensamble). Plus she'd be a novelty surprise and would make for an interesting addition to the roster, However, I ended up having a falling out with the series later on, and I never enjoyed the core games too much (the only one I played was Perfect Cherry Blossom, which I never beat, alongside fangames like Super Marisa Land, Super Marisa World, and MegaMari), and the memes became super grating, so it ended up leaving a bad taste in my mouth. But it would still be fun to see her for nostalgic reasons and look back on days past.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Jin Kazama - 27.83%

 

[NintenRob]

Chance: 3%
Want 0%
I didn't even know what touhou was until this year, and that's only because Reimu randomly started showing up in speculation. This franchise makes Dragon Quest look like Halo in terms of western appeal and honestly don't see it happening. Mii costume is possible sure, but I highly doubt playable character

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction Jin 12%

 

[Jomosensual]

Reimu

Chance 2 - Due to popularity in Japan I see a sliver of hope here, but being a literal who outside of there is really bad for Reimu. Sure, Dragon Quest got in, but it's also legendary in Japan and is a lot more popular than Touhou is. Feel Reimu is a much better fit for the base roster than DLC.

Want 0 - Pass. I don't really want characters I've never heard of as DLC.

Prediction - Jin 8.27%

Noms:
Kratos x5

 

[Calamitas]

LGBT rep in Smash would be awesome, and we don't really have any at the moment. (Unless you count Kirby/Meta Knight for being nonbinary in Japan, or something like that.)

Actually, Corrin is canonically bisexual.

 

[Artix]

Reimu

Chance: 25%
With Sans out of the table for indie rep, I believe Reimu definitely had a chance to get in. Like Fate, Touhou is really popular in Japan and people really underestimate both series' popularity there (Sure, they're not on the Dragon Quest-level of popularity, but it's still popular enough to be noticed by most people). Plus, she could represent the bullet hell genre, which is something that Smash currently lacks at the moment. The only thing that really hinders her is the fact that she's not as well known in the West. Not to mention, there are some people who hated the idea of having Reimu in Smash (keep in mind that these ARE the same people who hates Saber as well.). But overall, I have a feeling that she will get in Smash one way or another.

Want: 80%
I have played a bit of Touhou games (mostly the fighting game ones) and I kinda love the series overall. As for her in Smash, she may not be my most wanted character, but I would definitely love to see Reimu in Smash. Hell, I want both Reimu and Saber just to see the people's reaction, especially to those people who hated them.

Prediction:
Jin Kazama - 15.88%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5

 

[Lasatar]

My Most Wanted

Chance: Okay, you know what, I'm gonna go ahead and say exactly what I think. I think she's getting in. It's still possible that she won't, but at this point, her pros far outweigh her cons. And for that reason, I'm giving her a 65% chance score. Remember that this is still a 35% chance that she won't get in, but I genuinely think she's more likely than not. As for my reasoning? Hoo boy. Well, the last time Reimu was rated on here, I posted another message (I think it was on Page 418), for which I gave her a 50% chance. And the thing is, the majority of the points on that list still hold up. And, well, not only has the number of possible DLC slots for her to possibly be in increased, but certain things have happened which even further boost her chances. The elephant in the room being: An official game in the series, Antinomy of Common Flowers, has plans for a Switch release, and will likely be released sometime next year if it isn't cancelled (which is unlikely). Up until now, the two biggest arguments that people had against Reimu were (a), Touhou isn't big enough in the west (despite still being bigger in the west alone than other indie series like Shovel Knight and Shantae, which were both highly requested), and (b), it doesn't have any official presence on Nintendo systems outside of fangames. Well, one of those arguments is now dead, making the arguments against her chances a little bit thin.

But let's get back on topic. Remember how in my last post, I said that Nintendo made a list of names and Sakurai chose five of them? Well, that was the general consensus, but it turns out that this was false. rather, Nintendo picks the DLC and Sakurai simply says "Yes, I can make this work" or "No, I don't think I can do this" for each one. While we don't know if this is still the case for the post-fighter's pass DLC or not, I can say for certain that Sakurai would not turn Reimu down. We know that he likes Shmups; it was actually a Shmup that got Sakurai interested in game development and led to him joining HAL Laboratory. And considering that Touhou is by far the biggest Shmup in Japan, the chances that he hasn't heard of it are dwindling on zero. As for whether Reimu meets his requirements for being a character in Smash? She passes them all with flying colours. She has history, she brings something new to the table, and she has a unique design.

Oh, and I should probably mention that current popularity of Touhou in Japan is actually the highest it's been in years. It's pretty likely that the post-fighters-pass DLC hasn't been 100% decided on yet, and as such it's possible that Nintendo might try and grab a chunk of this recent boom for itself by putting Reimu in Smash. It's actually the perfect opportunity to do so, especially considering that a new official Touhou game was just announced and is currently on its way (with a chance to come to Switch as well).

Other than that, though, I can't think of anything to say that I didn't already say in my last post. So yeah. I genuinely think that she's more likely than not going to get in, and at this point it's more a matter of when than of if.

BTW, I apologise if this was hard to follow. It was mostly just a stream of consciousness that I couldn't be bothered to neaten up, so yeah.

Want: 100%. I don't really need to post a long message here. She's my most wanted character by a large margin, and if she got in, I would never ask for anything ever again.

 

[Neosonic97]

Sorry, Sari, I'm stealing your thunder for this one.

That being said, here be some music!

Spoiler: Music for Reimu

Reimu "Put the Fortune Teller in the Cellar" Hakurei

Okay, I'm not gonna beat around the bush here, my chance score is probably going to surprise you. You probably knew it was going to be a drastic increase in this post Sans-Mii world, but...

Chance: inevitable (100%)
With all of these recent events, plus the recent and noticeable surge in Reimu's popularity owing to a multitude of factors (confirmed official switch port of AoCF, the release of Touhou 17.5's trial, the Sans Mii costume), I'm firmly of the belief now that it's not a manner of 'if' for Reimu any more, but a manner of 'when'. It helps that of the current 4 members of the Fighter's pass, all four of them spell good things for Reimu, either by promoting some of her strengths (Such as her enormous legacy which is nearly as old as freaking Pokemon [to note: Highly Responsive to Prayers, Touhou's first game, released in November 1996, contrasting to the release of Pokemon Red and Green in Japan, which is February 1996, meaning Pokemon is only nine months Touhou's senior]), or debunking some of her perceived weaknesses (Notably lack of official/mainline games on Nintendo consoles, which was demolished multiple times over- notably by Cloud, and later, Joker). Plus, I think it's safe to say that Sakurai is fond of shmups. We keep seeing shmup-esque sections in Kirby games (The game series Sakurai is most-involved in), and given his recent interactions with Toby Fox, I find it VERY unlikely that Touhou (Which Toby Fox, by his own admission is a huge fan of) went unmentioned. Honestly, the only question I really have is 'Is Reimu going to be Challenger Pack 5, or a post-pass DLC?'.

tl;dr: I'm 100% sure that Reimu is going to get in. From what I'm seeing, the stars are aligning in just the right way that Reimu's looking like a sure pick.

Want: My most wanted (100%)
She's still my most wanted, people. Everything I said back when we rated Reimu back in January still applies here.

Yep, I'm giving out double 100s for this one. I'm that confident Reimu's getting in, and I want her to get in that much.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Shrine Maiden of Danmaku

Chance: 45%
Touhou is a video game franchise with multiple genres ranging from bullet hells, fighting, and most recently platforming, but it's mostly well know for it's Shmup games. It's made by one guy named ZUN, he makes the Shmup games by himself, from the bullets, to the character designs, to the music. The series started since the PC98 era, but it gained it's fame and popularity during the Windows era. It has a long legacy of over two decades and it's still going strong.

So what makes this series special? Well, it's insanely popular in Japan, and it also has a decent following outside of the country. The series has consistently had special conventions dedicated to it every year with tons of attendance. It has been a major pillar for the Doujin community in Japan and it continues to have notable attendance every year at Comiket, which is the largest Japanese convention. Touhou had a huge impact on the Doujin scene in Japan and is pretty much a pop culture icon there. The amount of fan made content created is ridiculous, so much so that it won a Guinness World Record for it's prolific content. The series has been an inspiration for many video games, most notably Undertale, with Toby Fox claiming so. There are tons of references to Touhou ranging from TV appearances to video games, here's a list of them.

With the appearance of the Sans Mii costume I believe Touhou has a good shot for Smash since it doesn't seem too niche for Smash anymore. It also helps that it's representing a genre that hasn't appeared in Smash yet, the Shmup genre. ZUN has been more lenient with the series recently, letting it crossover with Kirby in Taiko no Tatsujin which was made by Bandai Namco for the 3DS. Not to mention he finally released Touhou in a Western store like Steam. So perhaps ZUN might approve of a Smash proposal if Nintendo ever approached him.


Want: 100%
Reimu is one of my top five most wanted characters and I believe she'd be a unique and fun addition to Smash. Her grazing mechanics and flexibility with projectiles would make her a floaty glass canon fighter that prioritizes stage control and denying opponent movement. I have a long history with the Touhou series and I enjoy the games very much. I love the setting of the series, the characters, the games, and especially the music. I'd love to see the inclusion of Touhou in Smash and I hope it happens one day.


Prediction: Jin Kazama: 19.4%

Nomination: Steve x5

 

[nfaceman]

Reimu

Chance: 80%
I don't think I can say much that the two posts above me have covered already with the popularity in japan (and the west, all you nerds being on the internet for a decent amount of time had to have encountered touhou without realizing it. And the fan-base in the west is still notable), the legacy, music, many points to reference fighting based moves from, a representative of shmup games, the list goes on for quite awhile. Honestly wonder why people dismiss Reimu's chances of getting in if they do not know about her (not wanting her based on not knowing her is okay though)

Want: 100%
The franchise got me in to shmups as well as Japanese games/media in he late 2000s, been wanting this character ever since the thought of indie characters getting in smash and the only character I ever have truly wished for.

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the Reimu/Touhou mood:

Spoiler

Ratings coming soon.

EDIT: Just saw that Neosonic also posted songs though mine seem to be different ones apart from the first one.

 

[NobleClamtasm]

Chance: 55%
If Shantae, Shovel Knight and Undertale got recognition in Smash, I think that Touhou definitely has the legacy and history to warrant a playable slot. Not only is it older than the other indies, it has the consistent lasting power that very few franchises can boast. Plenty other posts above me already explained what makes Touhou so special, so I'll do something a bit different. I'm going to explain why Reimu might be an out of left field "Sakurai pick". What I mean by "Sakurai pick" is a character that is chosen due to Sakurai's personal taste. You can liken this to Joker and Terry's inclusion. Anyway, here are my reasons, and let me warn you that these go into borderline tinfoil hat territory.

1. Sakurai is interested in bringing "new worlds" to Smash

The way that Sakurai worded this in the latest Direct makes me think that Sakurai wants to pull not only different characters, also the entire universes they come from. You see this pattern with the current DLC cast: Joker brought in the rest of the P5 cast, Hero brought with him the entire Dragon Quest 11 overworld map, Banjo brought in Gruntilda, etc. Touhou has an expansive lore with tons of unique characters and settings that can be used to represent the franchise. Keep in mind, I'm aware that this reason helps a LOT of other characters. Regardless, I think it's safe to assume that Sakurai is not looking for series with a weak setting, such as Tetris, Cooking Mama, Style Savvy, etc. It just helps Touhou's chances a bit more.

2. History is a big deal to Sakurai

So far, almost every DLC fighter has some type of legacy going with them. It's clearer than day how much Sakurai respects video game history. Pac-Man's trailer emphasized how old his franchise was in comparison to other Nintendo's characters. Terry's trailer had a literal timeline of consoles. In each of Banjo and Hero's introductory videos, Sakurai briefly covers the history of their respective franchises. You get my point. Touhou is probably the most historically and culturally significant indie franchise out there.

3. Sakurai loves shmups

While not directly stated by Sakurai, I think it's quite obvious how much Sakurai holds dear to the shmup franchise. The game that inspired Sakurai to work for HAL was a shmup. The Kirby games he directed always had a dedicated shmup segment, to the point where it became Kirby tradition. The credits sequence in every Smash game has a shmup minigame. Sakurai directed Kid Icarus Uprising, in which he made 50% of the entire game a shmup segment. Smash still lacks a character to represent traditional 2D shmups, and Reimu is quite literally the only character who can represent the genre well.

4. Sakurai said he's interested in promoting Japanese games worldwide

I never understood why Japanese exclusivity has been seen a detriment. Perhaps it's the western bias. Regardless, I'll just post Sakurai's direct quote for this one:

It all depends on the next project I undertake, but I’ve already proven Japanese games can resonate with the rest of the world, and I’d like to continue doing so in whatever way I can.
Thankfully, Smash was a game that ended up supporting a lot of other games. It’s been proven that including a character as a fighter generates publicity for said character and their respective series. I’m very pleased that Smash can positively promote other titles.

5. Sakurai met with Toby Fox

Now this one's a doozy. We all know how Toby Fox literally visited Sakurai's house to play some friendlies. Toby Fox just so happens to be the biggest Touhou fan on the planet. Not only that, but Toby is already good friends with Touhou's developer, ZUN. Toby has in fact played a huge role in spreading Touhou in the west. He was the one who personally requested for ZUN to release titles on Steam. I can't help but think that this may be another Snake situation, where Toby implanted the idea of adding Touhou to Smash, and Sakurai running with it. Who knows what Toby and Sakurai talked about in their get together, but I would think that gaming inspirations are a discussion that would be in a fellow game developer's interest. Toby can very well be the connection that brings Sakurai to ZUN.


All thing considered, a playable indie rep isn't exactly guaranteed. I'd say 55% is fair, considering how niche the franchise is in general.

Want: 100%
Unique character, banging music and a legendary legacy. What more can you want in a Smash character?

 

[Nquoid]

Reimu

Chance: 0.1%
Want: 1%

I've been dreading this day, precisely because I knew I was going to come and be the dissenting voice. So here is an essay on why I think Reimu has a practically impossible chance of being in Smash:

The Games have Never Been Officially Localised Outside of Japan:
Point the first, and the biggy. It doesn't matter how big and huge the game is in Japan, the franchise has only very recently been made available on Steam, and even then is only available in Japanese. Zun has been very hesitant to have the games translated in any official capacity, and so therefore relied on fan translations, which is all well and good. However it does create a barrier. The vast majority of any sales that Touhou has gotten in the west before the appearance on Steam will have been pirated copies, and now the series is on Steam, it requires an additional patch to be playable, which I'm sure is easy, but certainly doesn't make it appealing to try out the series.

This feels like people have swung too far the other way on a "western character is inevitable". I do think Western companies are harder for Nintendo to deal with, but I also think the Western market is too valuable to do something as reckless as throw in a character with no official releases. Sales data for the Switch show that Japan is the second biggest single market, but 2/3 of all Switches have been sold out of Japan. And no Touhou isn't like Dragon Quest and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters. Both of those games have been repeatedly made available in the west, and their impact on their respective genres is undeniable.

Secondly, Sakurai has voiced regret at putting Lucas in Smash once he found out that Mother 3 wasn't going to be localised outside of Japan. And since then, we haven't had any playable characters in Smash that have come from games that haven't been localised outside of Japan.


No Official Touhou Game has ever appeared on a Nintendo console:
Obviously Antimony of Common Flowers is coming at some point, but when the future pass content was decided on, there were no official Touhou games on Switch. Yes there have been fanmade Touhou games on Switch, such as Lunar Nights, but even then sales have only passed about 100,000 copies, which pales in comparison to a lot of the indie characters that have appeared. With games like Undertale and Shovel Knight being million sellers on Nintendo platforms.

Even Final Fantasy and Persona had appeared on Nintendo consoles before, even if their playable characters hadn't had prominent roles.

And I know that Touhou music has appeared in some games on Nintendo consoles, but that's still very different when your main franchise still has not graced the platform in any official capacity.

Touhou hasn't had that gaming crossover hit:
This is another one I think is quite vital. Touhou has had huge cultural impact in certain areas. The music is hugely popular, it's a poster child of Dōjin culture and hell, I saw the McRoll video back in 2008 (probably my only exposure to Touhou outside of Smash speculation before now (shout at me later)). But it lacks a tangible foothold in the mainstream gaming consciousness. Many other people have said that Touhou has been embraced by it's own community, the anime community because of its general aesthetic and the dōjin community just based off the seriously impressive amounts of fan content that have been made. It doesn't have that huge seller. Hell as far as I can tell, Zun only prints ~10,000 copies of the games when they sell them at comiket, and the rest of the sales are obviously impossible to track because they're PC downloads, but very basic Steam data shows that no single official game has sold over 100,000 copies there, with most of them only having about 20,000 copies sold. Obviously the games could have sold a lot more elsewhere, it would still have to be a market increase of 50 to reach the ~5 million sales that Undertale have on Steam. Not impossible, but based on just how omnipresent Undertale was, I very much am sceptical.

If I thought Touhou had it's moment in the mainstream, outside of memes and music, I'd change my tune on this, but none of the games have the penetration that Shovel Knight or Undertale have had.

And call me old fashioned, but I do think overall imprint on the gaming community far outweighs Touhou's collective importance to dōjin and the anime communities. Even if neither can be completely ignored.

Bullet Hell is a *very* niche genre, even in Japan:
We talk a lot about representing different genres, and this one feels really sketchy to me. Out of all the genres not in Smash currently, from FPS to moba to RTS and visual novel, do we really think bullet hell is next? Yes Sakurai joined HAL because of playing a shoot 'em up they made, but Touhou isn't the clear choice here. Contra and Metal Slug exist, Ikaruga, Radiant Silvergun, Sin and Punishment, Gunstar Heroes (god how good were Treasure?). I know they don't all fill the exact same niche as Touhou, but if we're using Gall Force as why Touhou should be in Smash, then I see no issue in reaching back to shoot 'em ups for companies like Konami, SNK and Treasure who all already have content in Smash Ultimate. And all arguably have more mainstream cache world wide.

Other (arguably) bigger indie characters haven't managed to make it playable:
People frequently say "well Sans is a costume and Undertale heavily draws from Touhou, so Reimu must be able to make the jump!". Which I think fundamentally denies the fact that Undertale is bigger than Touhou in almost every regard. And I know I might get some push back on that, but if Shantae, Shovel Knight and Sans can't be playable, I do not think there any other indie characters that will make the jump. Maybe we'll see a Hollow Knight or Celeste costumes. Hell, Sans opens the door for a Reimu costume including music. But I think, particularly, Shovel Knight and Sans and their impact on the indie gaming community is far larger and more immediately felt on a worldwide level, that it makes Reimu's chances feel far far lesser.

As for want, the music would be cool? But I judge my Smash wants on a three pronged basis, Nintendo importance, gaming importance and world wide impact (which does crossover with my chance scores significantly), and I don't think Touhou ticks any of those boxes frankly. Whilst some Touhou music is cool, I see absolutely no reason why Reimu should make it in before franchises like Resident Evil, Tales, Tekken, Ninja Gaiden, Ace Attorney, Professor Layton, Overwatch, Crash, Doom or many, many others.

 

[Calamitas]

U.N. Owen was. . . n't her?

Chance: Abstain
. . .Yeah, I'm just not going to give a chance score today. I really don't know enough about Touhou to give what I would feel would be an appropriate assessment. Instinctively, I want to say that her chances aren't that great, but considering the high scores other people here are throwing around, I have my doubts on that.

Want: 15%
I guess I could live with her? At least, I wouldn't be vehemently against her, considering that like Terry, she's one of the far less talked about characters. I still wouldn't be thrilled in any way to see her, though.

Nominating Amaterasu x5.

Predicting Jin to land around 14.16%.

 

[Extremmefan]

Chance: 3%
Want 0%
I didn't even know what touhou was until this year, and that's only because Reimu randomly started showing up in speculation. This franchise makes Dragon Quest look like Halo in terms of western appeal and honestly don't see it happening. Mii costume is possible sure, but I highly doubt playable character

Not to ring my own bell but that was me with Banjo way back in Smash 4 speculation (dear lord it's been that long already?), and look how that ended up now.
However unlike Banjo, Touhou has bled into more worldwide medias than I can count, albeit never fully until now with its latest fighting game coming to Switch. Even as someone who didn't know Touhou at all I was familiar with the likes of UN Owen was her (everyone knows the McRoll video), Necrofantasia (dear lord was it everywhere back in the days of Wii hacks), Night of Nights (which was featured in Death Battle once), etc. Even now I feel that still applies to most people.
So, Reimu...

Reimu Hakurei, Shrine Maiden of Paradise (and by that I don't mean the PMD one )

Chance: Yes. 75%
Again with how Touhou bled into more medias (even here ), I think if any indie has a chance it's Touhou. Say what you want about Sakurai's worries about japanese localisation stuff and their shoot'em up competitors (that I haven't heard of ANYWHERE in almost all of their cases barring Metal Slug) but Touhou doesn't fly under the radar of anyone in the east and even a huge amount of people in the west as well (4th most followed "Character For Smash" support Twitter overall is NOT something to overlook). Plus if we do go by extra stuff deconfirming then I'd say AT Shovel Knight, spirit Shantae, and are more than boosting her chances up to eleven.

Want: 80%
My third most wanted character overall and the single most likely one of my top 3 and probably top 5 as well. I'm still a sucker for the music of the earlier Windows games as well and they're the most likely to be represented. I have played two Touhou fighting games (10.5 and 14.5) who helped build my general opinion of fighting games (as these games are both clones-less and completely overlooked in most communities), as well as the latest main game Touhou 17 which was good fun by itself too. Everyone already said how much she'd bring to the table, but I like Reimu as a character herself as well, being someone who considers everyone equally despite being tasked with protecting the humans from the youkai, with the whole thing being kind of just a show on both the religious figures's and the youkai's end just to keep the human village's fear of youkai intact... and yet she's so laid back about it and incident are almost never serious enough to be reason for trouble, she just solves them for the sake of being portrayed as protecting the village from youkai.

 

[Neosonic97]

EDIT: Just saw that Neosonic also posted songs though mine seem to be different ones apart from the first one.

The main difference is that you posted any old Touhou Song, while the songs I posted all share one thing in common: They're Reimu's theme songs.