Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ornl]

No fan favorites/highly requested characters
Chance : 100%

It all starts with a theory about the Adventure Mode : World of Light, proposed by Matpatt.
In Smash Brawl, Master Hand would be Sakurai, handcuffed and controlled by Nintendo, (Tabuu). In Smash U, Galeem would represent Nintendo too. This entity would like to exploit the creativity of its employees : the Master Hands. Dharkon would be the dark side of the fanbase, and the Crazy Hands then would be fans who complain and claim such or such new character, even devastate the game Smash Bros of its content. Sakurai's message would be that he is listening to Nintendo and fans. But if he lets one or the other do that, it will give way to nothingness.

It goes on with Reggie's announcement : "Who never saw it coming forward, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

It ends with a reminder about the existing : Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Joker and Erdrick weren't fan choices (before the first rumors). Bayonetta is the only ballot choice, and in Smash U, King K. Rool and Ridley are already fan wishes. Fans would like to have RPG characters Isaac, Lloyd Irving or Xenoblade rep. ? Nintendo replies by Cloud, Joker and Erdrick. Fans would like to have Mario characters Waluigi and Geno ? Nintendo replies by suprise and fun with Piranha Plant.

 

[BowserKing]

No Fan Favs
Chance: 30%
Thanks to multiple rumors, people would now expect them, but Piranha Plant and Joker are those characters that proved them wrong. At the most, the main fan fav character getting in would be Steve.

Want: 20%
The 20% is that Joker has already been confirmed. However my choices for fighters pass are quite different, and in my book, Steve is the mostly like character in my choices to be in the game.

Noms: 5 for free updates.

Also, I think I messed up. When I mentioned Lord Fredrick earlier, I meant him as an Echo for King K.Rool, so sorry for the minor error I made.

 

[Perkilator]

No fan favorites/highly requested characters
Chance : 100%

It all starts with a theory about the Adventure Mode : World of Light, proposed by Matpatt.
In Smash Brawl, Master Hand would be Sakurai, handcuffed and controlled by Nintendo, (Tabuu). In Smash U, Galeem would represent Nintendo too. This entity would like to exploit the creativity of its employees : the Master Hands. Dharkon would be the dark side of the fanbase, and the Crazy Hands then would be fans who complain and claim such or such new character, even devastate the game Smash Bros of its content. Sakurai's message would be that he is listening to Nintendo and fans. But if he lets one or the other do that, it will give way to nothingness.

It goes on with Reggie's announcement : "Who never saw it coming forward, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

It ends with a reminder about the existing : Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Joker and Erdrick weren't fan choices (before the first rumors). Bayonetta is the only ballot choice, and in Smash U, King K. Rool and Ridley are already fan wishes. Fans would like to have RPG characters Isaac, Lloyd Irving or Xenoblade rep. ? Nintendo replies by Cloud, Joker and Erdrick. Fans would like to have Mario characters Waluigi and Geno ? Nintendo replies by suprise and fun with Piranha Plant.

Okay, at this point, you really need to get off the site. Why are you even here if you’ve got nothing constructive to say? Anyways…

Chance: IDK
Want: Depends

Sakurai can use whatever characters he wants (within reason, anyways), but considering fan favorites never brought any harm (unless it’s Waluigi).

 

[Flyboy]

what does this even mean
Chance: Abstain
"Highly requested" by whom? By a bubble on the internet? By some people who really want to see assist trophies promoted? Every character in video game history seems to be represented on this board somehow. I don't think the concept of fan favorites even exists in this regard and it's always baffled me when people bring up certain talked about characters as the number one picks. And I say this as an old dude who remembers when Geno's fanbase was a couple of people on VGChat during the 64 days.

I just feel this term is too nebulous to truly judge. Joker was my most-wanted, but his thread wasn't exactly active. But I'd consider him a massive crowd-pleaser and therefore a fan favorite if you look at the reactions online.

Smashboards is fun, but this place isn't the end-all be-all.

Want: 95%
It's complicated.

If we are using the usual bandied-about names such as Isaac and Geno, then...yeah, my want score for "no fan favorites" is high. I like Isaac. I like Geno. They're cool. But I don't care about...I don't know, Rayman? Waluigi? I mean I like Waluigi but do I want him over my top ten? God no. My top most-wanted characters are 2B, Travis Touchdown, a Style Savvy rep, Phoenix Wright, Lloyd Irving, Arle Nadja, Ryota Hayami, the Elite Beat Agents, Elma, Neku Sakuraba, and Captain Toad. Out of all those, only maybe two- to two-and-a-half of those could be considered true "fan favorites". They all have followings (except Ryota, apparently), but outside of like a few Reddit polls few of them truly place in the same league as the "faves".

Except maybe Phoenix. He's really shot up the polls lately.

But like, dang, no, I can't say I want any of the usual suspects over my personal picks. Plus certain characters seen as memes, like Steve or Sans, would genuinely be fun to me. So nah.

I'm sorry Isaac I love you

Nominations: Lora (Xenoblade) x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Concept: No fan favorites/highly requested characters

Chance: 50%
I feel this really comes down to what your definition of "fan favorite" is. I know for a fact that people want Waluigi and Isaac, but are those two TRULY popular, or are they just bandwagon characters that people feel got dealt a bad hand? I honestly can't tell the difference these days...
Want: 95%
I'm going to be real here, some of my favorite Smash characters are the ones that come out of nowhere. I cared more about Piranha Plant than I did for Ken and Incineroar, and Joker's announcement blew my mind. If we can have more characters like that, then sign me up.

Nominations: Monokuma x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

No Fan Favs
Chance: 30%
Thanks to multiple rumors, people would now expect them, but Piranha Plant and Joker are those characters that proved them wrong. At the most, the main fan fav character getting in would be Steve.

Want: 20%
The 20% is that Joker has already been confirmed. However my choices for fighters pass are quite different, and in my book, Steve is the mostly like character in my choices to be in the game.

Noms: 5 for free updates.

Also, I think I messed up. When I mentioned Lord Fredrick earlier, I meant him as an Echo for King K.Rool, so sorry for the minor error I made.

I'll change that.

No fan favorites/highly requested characters
Chance : 100%

It all starts with a theory about the Adventure Mode : World of Light, proposed by Matpatt.
In Smash Brawl, Master Hand would be Sakurai, handcuffed and controlled by Nintendo, (Tabuu). In Smash U, Galeem would represent Nintendo too. This entity would like to exploit the creativity of its employees : the Master Hands. Dharkon would be the dark side of the fanbase, and the Crazy Hands then would be fans who complain and claim such or such new character, even devastate the game Smash Bros of its content. Sakurai's message would be that he is listening to Nintendo and fans. But if he lets one or the other do that, it will give way to nothingness.

It goes on with Reggie's announcement : "Who never saw it coming forward, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

It ends with a reminder about the existing : Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Joker and Erdrick weren't fan choices (before the first rumors). Bayonetta is the only ballot choice, and in Smash U, King K. Rool and Ridley are already fan wishes. Fans would like to have RPG characters Isaac, Lloyd Irving or Xenoblade rep. ? Nintendo replies by Cloud, Joker and Erdrick. Fans would like to have Mario characters Waluigi and Geno ? Nintendo replies by suprise and fun with Piranha Plant.

Imagine starting your post with a Matpat theory.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Imagine starting your post with a Matpat theory.

But HEY, that's JUST a theory, a GAME theory!

(Please note that I originally considered making a "Lame Theory" joke, but I think that's been done to death at this point.)

 

[TheCJBrine]

No Fan-favorites:

Chance: 50% - This could go either way; we could get at least one fan-favorite like Geno, Banjo-Kazooie, etc., or we could get no one that the majority wants. I can see us getting at least Bear-Birdie, however, due to the Microsoft & Nintendo stuff and rumors going around, but of course that's what they are...rumors. I don't think

Want: 0% - I'd love to see Banjo-Kazooie, Geno, etc. get in, as it'd make me and others happy. I'd also like Steve or a Creeper, but I can see they don't count as fan-favorites (unless we consider all the genuine Minecraft + Smash fans that want them, like the guys who wanted Steve on Miiverse), so...but, even if we got Banjo-Kazooie instead, I'd still be very happy, and just support Steve and the Creeper for the next game (since while two characters from the same company being added through the Fighters Pass is possible, it seems rather unlikely).

EDIT: woops forgot my noms.

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Porky Minch x2

 

[SPEN18]

No fan faves

Chance: 95%
It's clear from 4's DLC, what we've seen so far of Ult's DLC, and the general nature of DLC that most fan favorites aren't the types of characters that get picked for this sort of thing. DLC has pressures on each character to sell well and get a general audience riled up, so it's harder to sneak in a "dead" character like Isaac or a "side" character like Waluigi. Many other fan favorites have similar problems in terms of not lining up with Nintendo's apparent vision for DLC. Plus pretty much all the names being bandied about with any sort of frequency right now aren't really fan faves, at least in the classical sense. Banjo and Lloyd are exceptions I suppose, but I'm not really anticipating them at this point.

Want: 0%
Popularity alone isn't usually enough for me to support a character, but in Smash the popular characters are popular for a reason. Most of the fan picks are just as sensible as pretty much anything else Nintendo would choose for DLC. Plus the possibility that we only got one ballot character looks pretty bad. I do like plenty of characters that aren't considered fan faves, but pretty much all of those have little to no chance anyway.

 

[Deleted member]

Well, missed the last 2 days but cant say I could've contributed other than saying the Nintendo series picks are decent enough to get included despite my limited interaction with them.

Now: no fan faves

Chance: abstain

This is a tricky rope, as every character has their fans so you will please at least one person with the DLC. Plus Im of the idea that what matters is how you sell the character; Does the character looks fun to play? Is the design appealing? Is there something extra the character brings to the game? I can say that even if the DLC picks are niche, they will still sell well.

As for the highly requested characters, this one is even more tricky as they are always changing. The only one with consistent support through the years was Ridley, which was even a meme with the "too big". Characters like Krystal were certainly more popular during the brawl era, and characters like Geno have their ups and downs during games, and while I like Rex his support will likely drop with the next Xeno game. Current characters that now are highly requested are only so due to removing a lot of popular picks already in the game like K. Rool, Ridley, the veterans and Bayo. And their current support still pales in comparison with the biggest ones from 4 as its more divided.

Still, I feel at this point pretty much every request has a chance. It really depends on Nintendo liking the highly requested characters.

Want: 95%
If Im being honest, I dont particularly care about the highly-requested picks with the exception of Rex. I grew up playing a lot of these games on release but for some reason Im pretty much ambivalent on them. Maybe I played a lot of other games, maybe I outgrew some of them, or simply I just dont see them as other people do. At the end of the day there are just too many characters and franchises that I like more than the highly requested picks.

Nominate Hayabusa x5 to secure his place.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

No fan favorites

0% Chance

I am firm on the belief of at least a season 2, which does affect my scores a bit. Regardless, I feel that this concept is flawed right at its root.

If we go by past smash games, we can find some evidence that fan requests, while not the end all be all, are still popular with Sakurai. Melee added Ganon, Mewtwo, Zelda, Bowser, Peach, and Marth in no small part due to them being fan favorite choices. Brawl added another Kirby Rep (consensus was split between MK and DDD but both were faves), Wario, Diddy, and especially Sonic. Smash 4 has Megaman, Villager, Little Mac, the cut veterans, Cloud, and Bayo. Ultimate? Inkling, K Rool, Ridley, Belmont, Chrom, Dark Samus.

Granted, a few fan faves are assists or spirits. But there are enough for me to say us getting none is unlikely. I am hard on the Banjo train right now, and I see Lloyd as super likely as well. Both are fan faves. If we get further dlc I see Rex as likely and he is a fan fav.

Furthermore, no fan faves is subjective as hell. Who is a fan fave is awkward to say. Here there is a clear bias towards Isaac, Geno, and Banjo. Other places clearly have their own biases (reddit tends to have similar tastes to here, 4chan tends to have ****posts and other picks like Dante or Doomguy, tumblr is dead, etc). I could make an arguement that Sans or Steve are fan faves due to the fact that at least a strong portion of fans will be happy either due to Minecraft being super mainstream or memes.

0% want

No. I want Banjo, I want Crash, I want Lloyd. I would love for Isaac or Sora to join even if they are kind of unlikely. This kills them.

Yuri Lowell x 5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

No fan favorites?
Chance: Uhhh... 50%
Want: I honestly don't care. 0%

How do I even rate this? It's whoever the hell Sakurai and Nintendo decided to put into the game that determines this score. I think there will at least be one fan favorite choice. Reggie said to expect the unexpected, but this could lead to very unlikely fan favorites like Sora and Crash Bandicoot. Also, how do you judge who's a fan favorite or not? Is it highly requested characters that have a good shot, or unlikely sleeper characters that have a very devoted fanbase? This subject is way too vague for me to properly rate. Some obvious fan picks like Banjo however, are in my most wanted, and because of that, my want score is a 0%. Not a fan of negative concepts very much, such as no more stages, because they kind of ruin the fun of RTC.

Sly Cooper and Q*Bert both get 1.41% for being unexpected choices.

Tetromino x5

No fan favorites/highly requested characters
Chance : 100%

It all starts with a theory about the Adventure Mode : World of Light, proposed by Matpat.
In Smash Brawl, Master Hand would be Sakurai, handcuffed and controlled by Nintendo, (Tabuu). In Smash U, Galeem would represent Nintendo too. This entity would like to exploit the creativity of its employees : the Master Hands. Dharkon would be the dark side of the fanbase, and the Crazy Hands then would be fans who complain and claim such or such new character, even devastate the game Smash Bros of its content. Sakurai's message would be that he is listening to Nintendo and fans. But if he lets one or the other do that, it will give way to nothingness.

It goes on with Reggie's announcement : "Who never saw it coming forward, new to the series, just like Joker from Persona 5 : it's emblematic of the approach that Mr. Sakurai and the team are taking with the DLC. He wants characters that are unique, different, to bring them into the Smash Bros environment. Ultimate would bring just a whole different level of fun and enjoyment for the player. That's been the approach. That's the thinking".

It ends with a reminder about the existing : Cloud, Ryu, Corrin, Piranha Plant, Joker and Erdrick weren't fan choices (before the first rumors). Bayonetta is the only ballot choice, and in Smash U, King K. Rool and Ridley are already fan wishes. Fans would like to have RPG characters Isaac, Lloyd Irving or Xenoblade rep. ? Nintendo replies by Cloud, Joker and Erdrick. Fans would like to have Mario characters Waluigi and Geno ? Nintendo replies by suprise and fun with Piranha Plant.

But this is just a theory... A GAME THEORY! (Sorry I had to) Theories are just assumptions made by fans that have yet to actually be proven. Because of that, this argument is invalid. Unless proven true or given circumstantial evidence, never take a theory as gospel or use one to back up a claim. Also, please stop claiming that Erdrick is 100% confirmed. Unless we have official proof from Nintendo, he's not in the game yet.

 

[Ornl]

Theories are just assumptions made by fans that have yet to actually be proven. Because of that, this argument is invalid. Unless proven true or given circumstantial evidence, never take a theory as gospel or use one to back up a claim.

This thread asks for my opinion. The theory set out expresses my opinion. In the 442 pages of this thread, any answer that isn't an official confirmation or cancellation is an assumption, a theorie.

 

[CboyC95]

I would love to see the Three Mage-Sisters from Kirby Star Allies as playable fighters.

 

[CureParfait]

No fan favorites/highly requested characters

Chance- 99%
It seems like the DLCs in Smash so far aren't fan favourites. Also it seems like if a fan favourite pops up in Smash they'll most likely be on the base roster.

Want- 80%
Most of the highly requested characters for Smash doesn't really interest me at all. Plus most of my wants doesn't seem to be a highly requested character,

 

[GoodGrief741]

This thread asks for my opinion. The theory set out expresses my opinion. In the 442 pages of this thread, any answer that isn't an official confirmation or cancellation is an assumption, a theorie.

Thing is, you're using a theory to back up a theory. Your unproven theory (there will be no fan favorites) is being backed up by another unproven theory (that Crazy Hand represents crazy fans).

For the record, I think the latter part of your argument, where you provide an interpretation of Reggie's comments, is sound, but acting like a freaking game theory of all things means anything is, well, childish.

 

[PeridotGX]

The fan item's return.

Chance: 60%. It depends on what we define as a fan favorite. If we're only looking at the very top (Geno, Issac, Banjo, BDee) than no. If we look at it more broadly, then there's a possibility. Joker had a fair bit of support, so maybe we already have one?

Want: 0%. Bandana Dee's one of my most wanteds, and also a fan favorite. I also wouldn't mind Issac, Geno, or any of the other big guys.

Noms: X x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Joker had a fair bit of support, so maybe we already have one?

When Joker was revealed, I asked this thread whether they felt that Joker qualified as a fan favorite. I didn't get a single positive answer. For the purpose of rating, 'fan favorite' means the top dogs of Smash speculation (where the cutoff is for top dogs, that's up to you)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Honestly my only issue with Ornl new post is the Game Theory stuff. MatPatt tends to do theories for views that interest him personally, he has stated that he himself might not agree with them. Game Theory tends to be a bit of a crapshoot clickbait channel anyways nowadays. The smash theory really is one of their weakest ones imo.

Other than that, solid post. I feel people are too hard on you for this particular one. I see improvement in this post. Here’s to more like this one.

 

[TheCJBrine]

I doubt Sakurai made Galeem and Dharkon to represent Nintendo vs. Smash fans.

That would be rather harsh. Matpat's theories are just for fun, anyway...or so he says, at least...

 

[chocolatejr9]

Matpat's theories are just for fun, anyway...or so he says, at least...

Plot twist: Matpat is the true villain of World of Light. He convinced Nintendo that the fans were ravenous beasts who only cared about what they wanted, then convinced the fans that Nintendo didn't care about what they wanted, thus turning them against one another.

...Did I do the theory thing right?

 

[Jomosensual]

No fan favorites

Chance: 60 - Starting to think this is pretty likely. Right now I'd actually be a little surprised if Banjo or Geno got in right now with Steve, Erdrick, and Sora all feeling more likely and having more momentum now. Then again there are still 4 spots and they have to go to someone , so maybe it will be one of them

Want: 50 - I don't really care I guess? I'm not that huge on Banjo or Geno getting in, although I wouldn't be upset either.

Noms:
Porky x5

 

[Sid-cada]

No fan favorites

Chance - 75% - For here, I'm considering anyone with a notable following from either Nintendo or Smash fans to be considered a fan favorite. It's hard to say who will get chosen, although it looks like a decent chance we get nothing but surprises. Given the track record, we don't have much going against that, and trying to reach out outside that is best for buness.

Want - 50% - Most comes down to who gets picked, I guess. Some of my most wanted are on both sides of the spectrum, so it all comes down to the specifics.


Nominations

Palico X5

 

[Deleted member]

No Fan Favorites:

Chance: 0% - Sakurai is a man of the people, he pushes on through horrible pain just for us. He knows what we want, which is evident by ,,(returning),,,/,. Plus, we got Joker (which a lot of people wanted). I HIGHTLY doubt we won't get at least one fan favorite in. Plus there have been rumors about Banjo and Kazooie coming in.

Want: 50% - What everyone wants, I don't want. I can care less about Banjo and Kazooie, Never even heard of Geno until fan demand, same with Bayonetta when she was demand, Waluigi…. actually he'll be pretty dope, but I still don't want him, just wouldn't mind. However, I like it when people are happy, And seeing reactors freak their pants off to the moon would be something I'd LOVE to see.


Nominations:
Freddi Fish and Luther x5

Spoiler: EDIT

I just realized, that with this Nomination Freddi Fish will have 100 nominations. Congrats, I'm a failure! YAY! Oh look, I'm receving an award

Spoiler: Here the trophy without the text

 

[Icedragonadam]

Chance: 0.01%

-I'm confidently at least one of thr DLC character will be a ballot character. There are lots of 3rd guest characters that are wanted and would count as a fan favorite.
-Guests aren't mostly going to be advertisement type of characters like Erdrick(for the west). Sakurai is obviously not going to do that since he's picking the 5 from Nintendo's list.

Want: 0%

- Mainly because I want Lloyd.
- He technically counts as a fan fav, but in a way, he would promote the Tales series for the west like Erdrick. Banjo would be great as well.

Nominate DLC Challenges x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Assuming this means Banjo and friends exclusively...

Chance: 65%. I'm fairly confident that we only have 3 spots left (Dragon Quest isn't a possibility, it's an inevitability, regardless of how I feel), and somewhat feel that only 1 is left for a new series, which would mean that the next few DLC spots are going to be very tight. I'm not too confident in the chances of this board's picks.

But if we take into account the wider scope, it becomes literally 0%, disconfirmed by Joker (though in my case he confirmed it, I'm an individual).

Want: 30%. Arle certainly isn't one of them here, and probably barely is outside if she is at all, so... however, there's also Banjo, Crash, and Paper Mario, who do meet that requirement. So I'm a little conflicted. And people deserve their favorites anyway, so the big guys in the speculation scene like Banjo and Isaac and Waluigi would be nice, no matter how steep...

Ryu Hayabusa x 5. Sly would be awesome, but I'm not confident in him... 0.91%. Anyone can happen, at least.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Is today a new day?

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

No Fan Favorites

Chance: 99%

Between ATs, Sprits and Mii Costumes, they deconfirmed everyone that could be considered a fan-favorite, with the exception of characters that come from leaks, who I don't count. There's also the fact that Reggie specifically stated that there will be no anticipated characters, which could be interpreted as no fan favorites, and the "new to the series" bit, which means that spirits DO deconfirm. There's also the reliable leaks that state that the few surviving fan favorites are gonna get their slots stolen by other characters who fill a similar role or are from the same company (who I'm not gonna mention because leaks).

Want: 0%

The thing with the Smash community is that when they want someone in, they have a good reason for it. Whether it's being a 3rd party with great history with Nintendo or a main character of one of Nintendo's big series, fans have proven that their requested fighter belongs. In my opinion, it's just not right to say no to a whole bunch of characters who have earned their slots (some of them multiple times over) just for the sake of it.

It's also fun to see the hype that comes from others being happy about their most wanted, even if you personally don't care for the character. I know that's how I was when King K. Rool got revealed. Not being able to see the fandom in their most positive moment is honestly gonna suck with the next 4 DLC fighters. While it is good to see surprises with the Fighter picks like Cloud and Joker, it's not good if they completely or almost completely overshadow the fan-favorite picks like it feels like they did with guys like Ken and Incineroar for base game, and for DLC, especially considering 90% of the time, those surprises end up getting leaked, completely ruining the surprise. However, a Fan-Favorite can still being out hype even if leaked, as shown by Ridley at E3.

Nominations: Concept: Monokuma x5

 

[Deleted member]

No fan-favorite characters in the Fighter Pass

Chance - Abstain
Honestly, aside from one character we have nothing to go off of for any other character. Judging from Joker and the potentially leaked character it would seem to be going in that direction, however that's only two out of five.

Want - 75%
If I'm being honest most of the characters held so highly by this fanbase are ones that I'm just totally neutral on. If they did make it it would just be "oh neat" for me. That said though if it weren't those characters then obviously it depends entirely on who those characters are, but my tastes are quite open so really I'm fine with anyone whether they're from a game I like or they just have a cool moveset.

Nominations:
Yuri Lowell x3, The Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will end when I wake up.

 

[FancySmash]

No Fan Favorites Allowed

Chance: 80%
This all depends on who the next our characters are. With Joker being our first character, there's debate on whether or not what constitutes as a fan favorite. For all intents and purposes, Joker wasn't exactly a majorly demanded character... in this thread. I'm going to keep statistics confined to this board to make things easier. It would seem that major fan wants include the likes of Geno, Isaac, Bandana Dee, Waluigi, Banjo & Kazooie, Shantae, Elma/Rex, Dixie Kong, Skull Kid, and so on and so on. The problem? Most of these already appear in some way, and spirits increasingly seem to be deconfirms as time goes on. Assists, like Isaac, Waluigi, and Skull Kid seem to have it the worst. However, one name stands out from that crowd. Banjo still has a shot, but if we get a Microsoft rep, it comes down to him, Steve, or Master Chief, and it's hard to tell who would win out. And this is all assuming that Joker isn't a symbol of the picks being all "surprise" picks this time around.

Want: 0%
I understand that a lot of work goes into making these characters, and Ultimate has truly delivered something impressive this time around. Any veteran you want, Ridley, Simon, heck, even King K. Rool. But for every Ridley or K. Rool, you have your Incineroar or Piranha Plant. I suppose in retrospect, having a character to surprise the masses is fine, but are they really gonna attempt it for all five DLC characters? Surprise picks are only surprises if it is done so sparingly. It's very easy for the team to try to one up the last surprise and fail miserably. At what point is a surprise no longer a surprise? And why should fan demand be ignored just to attempt a surprise that leakers could very well ruin anyways? Some fan favorites might've even seen this as their last chance. Isaac anyone? It all leaves a negative feeling inside me.

Predictions: Sly and Q*Bert
Both iconic in their own right, but I haven't really seen much demand for either of them. Granted, I'm willing to go with...

Sly: 1.16%
Q*Bert: 1.01%

Nominations: Kamek x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

No Fan Favorites

Chance: 80%
Reggie Fils-Aime described the upcoming DLC choices as "characters that you would not anticipate to be in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate." He could have used less specific wording, or stopped alluding to how the remaining picks were comparable to Joker, but he didn't - and one doesn't use wording like that for the likes of Sora or Geno.

But what would be the point of going for those "fan-favorites" now anyway? After all, anyone in the Nintendo circle who's remotely invested in Smash Ultimate has already bought it, or already planned to buy it once they got a Switch. They've already shelled out the $60, and it's small pennies if a few actually refund it over the likes of Waluigi or Skull Kid.

Nintendo at the helm of character choices introduces a simple but important element of economics. What DLC choices would make most money? The ones who'd net $5.99 satisfying the bases that only cared for one character? A collection of Nintendo extras that would see the devoted purchase the whole Fighter Pass? Well, how about characters that would inspire a massive yet otherwise uninterested base to purchase a $299 console and a $60 game for that single $5.99 character? Just look at the Persona base, whose games had been entirely on the Playstation - would they have considered a Switch beyond the chance that one of the side games was Switch-exclusive?

And there's plenty of other such bases out there, full of people who love a great game but don't know anything about Nintendo beyond Mario and Pokemon. More than enough to fill out the remaining four choices.

Want: 100%
I'll take Sakurai's taste in games over any amount of internet bandwagonning. He's the reason I ever expanded my scope beyond Pokemon, after all, when I first got into Melee - the reason I tried out Legend of Zelda, Kirby, Mario, Fire Emblem, and all the others in Smash that I was interested in. This could be the only chance in the entire franchise for him to truly pick those who'd be otherwise impossible, and I'd rather meet more franchises like that instead of the inevitable appearance of a few Nintendo side characters.

 

[Dee Dude]

No Fan Requests

Chance: 90%
Yeah we gotta be realistic here, every requested character in Ultimate is dead in the water now that they’re in AT Hell, Spirit Limbo, or even just stuck as Costumes.

After the cesspool aftermath of the Grinch hoax, I’ve learned to stop getting my hopes up for any characters I actually want when I just have to understand that no matter how we much try to make our voices heard, it’s still Sakurai and Nintendo’s game in the end and they’ll add whoever they want or think will sell whether we like it or not.

I don’t agree with the idea of Joker being a Sakurai pick even he’s a Persona 5 fan , if anything Joker is basically one of those dream characters that fans would find unlikely but now that he’s in, it’s a miracle for those fans.

And if we learned anything from Smash 4’s DLC, it’s evident that they go for big name 3rd Parties not commonly discussed in the community and corporate 1st Parties used for promotion, no proper Ballot requested fighters were ever actually chosen for the line-up at the time.

And with Ninty choosing the DLC this time, I’m very confident that that’s going to be the case again.

If anything, this kinda means fan-favorites are a base or nothing kind of deal, they’re in the game or it’s next Smash for them.

Banjo is the last remaining fan-favorite who has a chance alongside maybe Sora but I refuse to get to set my self for disappointment when I know for a fact Nintendo is trying to reach the general public to buy Smash and make money which I completely understand because the core fanbase has already bought it as a means of their satisfaction.

So if I expect someone like Erdrick, or Edelgard, I won’t be surprised or heck even disappointed but there will be salt regardless mark my words.

Want: 20%

To be honest, I don’t really know.

I want Banjo, Sora, and Crash to get their chances but I’d also be interested in seeing guys like Monokuma, Tracer (who isn’t on a Nintendo system but maybe an OW port will happen) and Doomguy also get in because frankly they’d be a complete blast, I just want balance if anything.

As someone who supports the Assist Alliance, I frankly don’t see a second DLC Wave unless the Fighter Pass sales go ballistic.
If anything, I primarily support it for Smash 6 so those characters get a proper promotion in a brand new title.

We don’t like seeing our favorites getting snubbed, but truth be told that doesn’t matter to Nintendo but if Reggie expects us to see more Joker tier characters then maybe we should put a little more faith in Ninty and what happens next.


Unless Bullet Bill gets confirmed....


Nominate: Monokuma x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over new day

 

[Sari]

Sly Cooper

Chance: 0.5%
A Sony property that has no relation to Nintendo and hasn’t had a new release in 5 years. Even if we were to get a Sony rep (which I don’t see happening with Sony being very stingy), Kratos or Nathan Drake would probably have higher priority due to being way more popular and relevant.

Want: 20%
Growing up mainly on Nintendo consoles, Sly Cooper was one of the games that made me wish I had a PS2. I still remember seeing that one Sly Cooper commercial all the time where the kid folds up his bike and thinking how cool it'd be to have that game (EDIT: after a lot of searching I finally found the commercial). The series looks really fun and has a cool artstyle so I wouldn’t be too much against his inclusion.

-----

Josh Gad’s wife and children
And to think I had erased that monstrosity of a movie from my memory

Chance: 0.1%
Technically owned by Sony which is a hassle on its own. I also don’t see why they’d bother to go out of their way for this as there are a ton of more popular Sony-owned characters to choose from.

Want: 0%
I know Q*bert was fairly popular back in the day but I just have no interest in it. There are a ton of other retro characters I'd like to see instead.

World of Light expansion chance prediction: 2.68%

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Sly Cooper
Chance: 0%
Sorry, but I can't see this happening. Sony hasn't shown any interest in Smash (as far as I'm aware, correct me if I'm wrong), and if they did, they would probably want one of their more popular characters, like Kratos.
Want: 50%
I remember watching a Let's Play of Thieves in Time (the most recent game) and I certainly liked what I saw, even with "the twist" (if you have seen the game, you know what I'm talking about). I honestly wouldn't mind Sly getting in.

Q'bert
Chance: 0%
I didn't even know he was owned by Sony until it was brought up here. Though because of that detail, he's in the same position as Sly.
Want: 0%
Honestly, I don't care much for this game. I get that it's a notable part of gaming history, but it hasn't been relevant in who knows how long, and I haven't had a reason to really care about it or the character. Also, the Adam Sandler movie he was in doesn't help...

Nominations: Monokuma x5

 

[Ridrool64]

The Thievius Raccoonus' Current Owner

Chance: 0.1%. Yeah he's not spectacularly likely. He fits the Reggie bill, and I do think that not showing up on a Nintendo console ever is both a boon and a curse, but overall he's seen better days and most unfortunately, Sly 5 is unannounced at best or non-existent at worst. Even that, however, seems to pale in comparison to the Sony issue, what with it being extremely unlikely Nintendo will ever work with Sony again on anything. So with those combined, he's got quite a bit of an uphill battle to deal with. Oh, and Kratos is a thing even if all of these occur, and God of War is probably one of their most iconic franchises so Sly has to deal with that. Or Nathan Drake, actually. And even for an Assist Trophy spot, we might end up with Gran Turismo.

Want: 60%. There's exactly one "no Nintendo appearences ever" character that'd actually get me hyped, and it's this guy. The possibilities for a moveset, bringing him back into the limelight, it'd be awesome. Had Arle and friends not been around, he could be a contender for one of my most wanteds, but I still would be really pumped seeing him in.

The guy who constantly has everything he says censored

Chance: 0.01%. Basically a Sly that's even harder to expect. There's other issues like "what will he do", "lower on the food chain than even Sly is", "retro characters are not likely for DLC since they need to appeal to casuals", but overall everything I said about Sly also goes for Q'bert. At least he's more... tied to gaming history?

Want: 15%. I've never played it, and I'm not really interested in it. I feel like if Q'bert needed to be included, he would best be a Spirit that enhances jumping or an Assist Trophy that does what he did in his game. Everybody wants to be a fighter, but sometimes, there's no getting around that some just aren't made for it. But if he does get in, I won't complain.

Ryu Hayabusa x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Sari thanks for reminding me of Pixels, you monster.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: No fan favorites/highly requested characters pre-Sly Cooper/Q*Bert

Porky Minch x150
Ryu Hayabusa x145
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Yuri Lowell x133
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Undertale rep x130
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115

150 - 101

Impa x106

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Lora (Xenoblade) x100
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x98
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x95
Creeper x92
Boss: Kracko x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x75
9-Volt x74
Frogger x70
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x70
Tetromino x70
Spyro x67
Jin Kazama x65
Metal Sonic x65
Ninten x58

50 - 25

Morrigan Aensland x50
Papyrus x46
X (Mega Man) x44
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
Decidueye x38
Kamek x36
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Palico x25
Monokuma x25

Under 25

Gooey (Kirby) x22
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Concept: DLC challenges x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Crono x15
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x13
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Kyle Hyde x10
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Marx (Kirby) x7
Concept: Another joke character x7
Black Shadow x6
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x6
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Mike Jones x5
Specter Knight x5
Concept: New modes x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Luminary (Dragon Quest) x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Ryu Hayabusa sneaks past Boss Rush, steals second place. Yuri Lowell braves past... Everyone (Brash the Bear, Amy Rose, Undertale rep and Bonkers to be precise), and lands fourth place.

Palico and Monokuma escape from the under 25 club.

Today's newcomer is Luminary, with 2 nominations.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Raccoon eats grapes with his little hands
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Playstation owned IPs will not and should not get a spot on the roster. I sooner see us getting actual non-vidya characters. Nintendo is also on way better terms with Xbox anyway. Even then, there are loads more Playstation associated characters who are more popular, iconic and relevant. They simply have no reason to add Sly. I'm sure his games are fine but he doesn't belong in Smash.

@!#?
Chance: 0.01%
Another character owned by Sony. Well he atleast has appeared on the NES and is fairly iconic, with his movie appearances and all. So he has it better than Sly. Still, Sony is a humungous hurdle to overcome. Alongside that, the moveset potential doesn't seem to be there. He looks to simple of character to do anything with.

Want: 0%
Simply not interested, especially not if all the negotiations will cost us more worthwhile content. Nintendo should honestly stay far away from everything Sony imo.

Metal Sonic x5
WoL expansion: 7.44%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Trash panda

Chance: 1%
Sony does not play ball. Sly hasn't ever made an appearance on Nintendo, and hell, with how things are looking, might never make another one on PlayStation either. Which is a shame, honestly.

Want: 10%
Look, I love me some Sly, but let's be real. If Sony gets a character in Smash, it'll be only one. Maybe two, tops. Personally, I think it should be a character who represents Sony as a whole, a mascot, someone like Kratos or Drake. Sly has never been Sony's mascot.

Pyramid scheme

Chance: 1%
Sony doesn't play ball, like I said. Even with Q*Bert being an acquired property, he's nigh impossible. Plus he doesn't really have moveset potential, so maybe an AT?

Want: 50%
I respect Q*Bert as a classic, as an important part of gaming history and as a fun game. That said, he didn't really stay with the times. I'd rather my third parties be actual franchises with history rather than just a game that came out a while ago (mostly because if you get including one-offs you just never end). I dunno, Q*Bert would feel kinda B-tier to me.

Noms: Kyle Hyde x5