Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

OUR LORD AND SAVIOR KARP

Chance: 0%
Want: 99.999999%

Before the memes begin: I'm gonna get chance out of the way. It's not happening. We got our joke character, and Pokémon for this game. Realistically, it also has barely any moveset potential... but I will awaken that potential. It technically has 4 moves... plus an extra few exclusive ones.

The Karp has been laughed at for over 20 years now. Being called pathetic, worthless, the worst Pokémon ever, Tragikarp, the list goes on. But it is time, for all of that laughter turned into rage, to be released onto the battlefield. He will become the Pokémon equivalent of Mike Tyson! He is the strongest Pokémon ever! It's one shot a mega Rayquaza before! It can also kill Ultra Necrozma! Want proof? Here you go! It can jump over mountains! It can survive in any water! Wanna know why Goldeen is the one who flops around and does nothing? Because Magikarp was invited to Smash! Then Joker stole the invitation, and invited the roster to fight on Haru's forehead! So his new plan is to break into the competition himself! With the power of Flail and a focus sash, Magikarp will kill anyone and anything on the battlefield. The higher the percentage, the higher the damage! It can recover with bounce, use hydro pump somehow, and it can use the power of Jesus Christ and summon a storm of Gyarados for its final smash! Bow down to your new god!

Back to business here:

Ryota Hayami: 1.21%

Tetromino x5

TCT~Phantom are calcs ready yet?

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Nope
Chance: 0.001
is our joke character and I don't see us getting character in the same vein. And since all the future dlc will likely be paid as opposed to plant being a free bonus, Magikarp might be a tough sell. Besides, I don't think any non gen 7/8 Pokemon really stands a chance to be chosen. Even if by a miracle Magikarp was chosen anyway, Sakurai would probably have a hard time designing a moveset for it and they'd probably have to scrap.

Want: 0%
As of now I just want characters who deserve to be there and people would spend money on not for the sake of a joke. Plant's inclusion was humorous but for god's sake don't ad Karp on top of that. At that point it would be very redundant and insulting to people who want actual characters they like unironically.

Ryota: 1.17%
Metal Sonic x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Piranha

Chance: 1%
Never put anything past Sakurai, I guess. But we have a Pokémon, we have a troll character, and Magikarp has zero moveset potential.

Want: 0%
It is an iconic Pokémon so I like it more than some on the roster already, but it should be an AT. Plus, I don’t want any more Pokémon and I don’t like troll picks.

Noms: no fan favorites x5

 

[BowserKing]

Magikarp

Chance: 10%
While it does not have a spirit (if it did, it would level up to 99 and become a ), but as a character, it would have a lot of competition to go through. being a playable character is more likely, since it actually has moves it can use, but then again, just like Ridley, it's size needs to be reduced.

Want: 50% (But 10% as a playable character)
There are other Pokémon that are move likely to be playable (Lugia, Gardivoir and Snivy, just to name a few), plus we already have 6 from generation one. However, as a stage enemy or Pokeball Pokémon, it could work out, as long as there is a stage for the Magikarp to appear on (Like Alolan Tour).

Noms: 3 for free updates and 2 for Marx

 

[GoodGrief741]

I’ll be flying back home tonight, so today ends the lateness with noms updates. Again, I apologize for the last 3 weeks.

Also, it appears that participation on Cranky’s day was super low. Weird. These whippersnappers wouldn’t know taste if it slapped them across the face!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Cranky Kong pre-Magikarp

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x197
Concept: World of Light expansion x185
Sly Cooper x185
Q*Bert x179
Tracer x146
Kat & Ana x145
Poochy x145

150 - 101

Vaati x140
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Porky Minch x128
Concept: Undertale rep x125
Ryu Hayabusa x125
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Impa x101

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Yuri Lowell x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Creeper x83
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x70
Spyro x67
Frogger x65
Jin Kazama x65
Ninten x54

50 - 25

Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x50
Tetromino x50
Metal Sonic x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
Decidueye x38
Morrigan Aensland x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Kamek x30
X (Mega Man) x29
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Palico x15
Concept: DLC challenges x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Mike Jones x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Sly Cooper ties with World of Light expansion in second place. Tracer warps past Kat & Ana to take fifth place, while Poochy manages to tie with K&A for sixth.

Kamek flies past 25 noms.

Today’s new concept is Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool, with 5 noms.

BowserKing giving you a heads up cause you appear to be new around here. To have your nominations counted your reasonings have to be at least 4 full sentences long (2 for chance and 2 for want) if you give scores for both.

 

[3DSNinja]

Bro, I gave Specter Knight 2 noms, and you don't have him. Or my three Black Mage noms.
Our Lord and Savior (wait no that's Waluigi)
Chance:1%: He could happen, but I don't see it. Cranky is way more likely as a joke char. Sorry Karp fans.
Want:100%: I really want a new joke character. sure you can say PP is one but I mean like Pichu in Melee or Sandbag in SSF2.
Nominations: Black Mage x2, specter Knight x3
Also please help me him Black Mage

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bro, I gave Specter Knight 2 noms, and you don't have him. Or my three Black Mage noms.
Our Lord and Savior (wait no that's Waluigi)
Chance:1%: He could happen, but I don't see it. Cranky is way more likely as a joke char. Sorry Karp fans.
Want:100%: I really want a new joke character. sure you can say PP is one but I mean like Pichu in Melee or Sandbag in SSF2.
Nominations: Black Mage x2, specter Knight x3
Also please help me him Black Mage

Old aApe
chance: 10%: He is an important DK char, but he has to compete with Funky and Dixie, both are for more requested then him.
Want:70%: He would be cool. But a certain other character that I want would use a pogo (Shovel Knight).
Noms:
Black Mage x3 Specter Knight x 2

I count three sentences.

 

[Sari]

A while back people got a ton of extra nominations depending on how accurately they predicted the following day's character chance ratings. Will we be doing that again?

EDIT: Also I just found out that Cranky's VA from the DK cartoon passed away yesterday when we were rating Cranky.

 

[GoodGrief741]

A while back people got a ton of extra nominations depending on how accurately they predicted the following day's character chance ratings. Will we be doing that again?

Theoretically, yeah, that’s supposed to be a daily thing, but we’re a bit behind on that stuff. We’ll try to get up to date soon.

EDIT: Also I just found out that Cranky's VA from the DK cartoon passed away yesterday when we were rating Cranky.

Yikes, that’s unfortunate. Never watched that cartoon, but I hope he lived a good life.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

That's sad to hear. RIP Cranky's VA.

 

[RileyXY1]

Magikarp

Chance: 0%
I highly doubt that we are getting another joke fighter after Piranha Plant. There are also other Pokemon that have better chances.

Want: 0%
I'm just not that interested in it. I don't want another joke fighter after Piranha Plant.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Flyboy]

Magikarp
Chance: 0%
I know this is a joke day but unfortunately I have no sense of humor.

Magikarp isn't getting in. TPC has very specific Pokemon it wants in it seems and Magikarp doesn't seem to be on the radar. Also, while I cam see a gimmick it can use I just don't see why it would be in, even as a joke character. Pichu at least represented the second generation of Pokemon. It's weird that Magikarp isn't a Pokeball Pokemon, though.

Want: 1%
Like, I could actually see a pretty cool evolution mechanic - survive long enough and rack up enough chip damage in order to evolve to a Gyarados and wreck house. High risk, high learning curve, deadly in the right hands. But, man, why? That's a gimmick that doesn't have to be Magikarp-exclusive and with Plant as the joke character I don't really feel it, that's all. Also, theoretically this is for DLC and there's no Pokemon stage or music I'm aching for that'd make me want another Pokemon in the pass, especially not a gen 1 one.

Nominations: Poochy x3, Tracer x2

Also, I'm pretty sure I know the answer but I thought I'd ask - does the "no fourth party" rule extend to Scrooge or James Bond? I just think those specific ones would be fun to rate but I understand not wanting to open that particular can of worms.

 

[BowserKing]

I’ll be flying back home tonight, so today ends the lateness with noms updates. Again, I apologize for the last 3 weeks.

Also, it appears that participation on Cranky’s day was super low. Weird. These whippersnappers wouldn’t know taste if it slapped them across the face!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Cranky Kong pre-Magikarp

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x197
Concept: World of Light expansion x185
Sly Cooper x185
Q*Bert x179
Tracer x146
Kat & Ana x145
Poochy x145

150 - 101

Vaati x140
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Porky Minch x128
Concept: Undertale rep x125
Ryu Hayabusa x125
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Impa x101

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Yuri Lowell x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Creeper x83
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x70
Spyro x67
Frogger x65
Jin Kazama x65
Ninten x54

50 - 25

Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x50
Tetromino x50
Metal Sonic x45
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
Decidueye x38
Morrigan Aensland x35
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Kamek x30
X (Mega Man) x29
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Palico x15
Concept: DLC challenges x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Marx (Kirby) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Mike Jones x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Sly Cooper ties with World of Light expansion in second place. Tracer warps past Kat & Ana to take fifth place, while Poochy manages to tie with K&A for sixth.

Kamek flies past 25 noms.

Today’s new concept is Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool, with 5 noms.

BowserKing giving you a heads up cause you appear to be new around here. To have your nominations counted your reasonings have to be at least 4 full sentences long (2 for chance and 2 for want) if you give scores for both.

Thanks for the heads up, I fixed it now.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Also, I'm pretty sure I know the answer but I thought I'd ask - does the "no fourth party" rule extend to Scrooge or James Bond? I just think those specific ones would be fun to rate but I understand not wanting to open that particular can of worms.

I’m gonna say no, as ok as I would be with those characters (which is, only slightly), I’m pretty wary of slippery slopes. And I’m a rules lawyer kind of guy.

 

[Deleted member]

Missed Cranky, but whatever, let's get rolling with Magikarp.

Chance: 1%
I really dont see it happening, we got a joke character already with the plant and I really doubt we will get any new one soon (but might be wrong, that's why 1%). Pokemon normally focuses on adding new mons from the new entries in Smash, so I would imagine that one of the new starters final evolutions or one of the version mascots from Sword and Shield would be added. On a side note, I wonder why Goldeen was choosen as the useless Pokeball Pokemon instead of Magikarp considering that was Magikarp reputation.

Want: 1%
While Magikarp is not one of my favorite mons and there are quite a few mons that I would prefer, I consider Magikarp as the perfect lethal joke character considering it starts of weak but grows into the threatening Gyarados. It's a cool concept that a few people have mentioned regarding his gimmick involving evolving into Gyarados, but I feel that it would work better as a Pokeball summon that if you or an opponent attack him a lot it evolves into Gyarados and rampages through the stage.

Nom: Hayabusa x 5

 

[PeridotGX]

fish

Chance: 1%. We just got Piranha Plant. There's no way we Get 2 DLC Joke Characters.

Want: 5%. He'd be funny, I guess. I'd just be sad we got another Gen 1 Pokemon, when so many better Pokemon exist.

Noms: X x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Magikarp

Chance - 0% - Not for paid DLC. Most people were able to accept Purana because it's free, but having to pay for a joke character? I don't see that happening.

Want - 1% - While there is some value to having such a joke in the roster, I'm against joke characters in general for DLC. I'd rather not have him in, when we have limited time and roster size as of now.


Nominations

Vaati X5

 

[CureParfait]

Magikarp

Chance- 0%
I don't see Magikarp being playable at all unless there is a gimmick where it evolves into Gyarados in its moveset. However I see it being a Pokeball Pokemon though.

Want- 20%
Magikarp is one of the joke characters I would be happy with. Since Pichu and Piranha Plant didn't interest me at all. But I would rather not have another Gen 1 rep for DLC.

 

[SPEN18]

Magikarp

Chance: 0%
I don't think they'll use another joke pick for DLC, especially one from a franchise that has other more promotional options. I don't know who at Nintendo would push for this.

Want: 0%
Too jokey; there are much more interesting Mons. He's recognizable, sure, but I think that he's a pretty good example of why recognizability doesn't mean everything. He could replace Goldeen as the Splash spammer, as he's more well-known than Goldeen and is also more associated with Splash.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

On a side note, I wonder why Goldeen was choosen as the useless Pokeball Pokemon instead of Magikarp considering that was Magikarp reputation.

Cause of the anime. Magikarp has not been known for Splash in the anime so much as evolving into Gyarados and kicking serious ass. Goldeen barely got used in the anime as is. Its first appearance is literally being summoned on land as a joke to show it off as splashing around. Since Sakurai heavily borrowed from the anime, it stuck with this.

It's why Magikarp, if it gets in as a Pokeball, probably won't be anything but evolving into Gyarados instead. Splash is its signature thing in the games, not in the anime.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Magikarp

Chance: 1%
What could Sakurai possibly do to give him a viable moveset? It's unlikely that there won't be another joke character and if they were going to add another pokemon, it's going to from 8th gen. If it had to be another 1st gen rep, other pokemon like Gengar would be much better candidates.

Want: 5%
While Magikarp would be hilarious, he would just be a waste of a spot. Revealing him after Joker would be a big disappointment and I want other franchises to get represented. And he would not add much at all in a game already filled with pokemon and joke characters.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Came back to check in on the RTC thread. All I see are characters without chances being rated. Somehow Brash the Bear made it on with 115 noms which depresses me but okay.


Magikarp: Abstaining, why is this here.

Nominations: Impa x5

 

[Perkilator]

Yea…not surprised by the reactions. Abstain.

 

[Nemuresu]

:Facepalm:
Chance: 0%-Yes, everyone and their mothers know Magikarp. But you know what makes it famous? It's its utter weakness that later becomes Gyarados. Not a fighter material.
Want: 0%-If I wanted to play as Magikarp, I'd go back to any of my Gen 6/7 games and train one. Not to mention, its movepool makes for anything but an interesting fighter.
Nominations: Morrigan x5

 

[Opossum]

Lol Magikarp. Needed that today. Levity.
Chance: 2%
I mean he got his own mobile game lol. That, and Piranha Plant happened. Still not likely.

Want: 1%
I like Magikarp. I really do. But there's only one fish 'Mon I'd want in Smash.


One day, my precious friend. One day.

 

[Neosonic97]

It's about a month too early for this.

#129
Chance: 1%
The only real thing Magikarp has going for it over other Fish-like 'mons is the fact that it got its own mobile game in Magikarp Jump. That's it. Even its own evolved form Gyarados has more going for it. It's also a first party and uh... it's looking like DLC is going to be mostly third-party.

Want: 0%
What WOULD Magikarp even do aside from flop about uselessly? We already have a left-field character in , and even Pokemon's own resident former joke character is present (Because yes, Pichu was a joke character in Melee). Gen 1 Pokemon already has no less than 6 representatives (Counting Squirtle, Ivysaur and Charizard separately), so do we really need a 7th? And for that 7th to be Magikarp of all things? Even amongst Gen 1 I can think of a couple 'mons I'd rather have (like Dragonite, Nidoking, Hitmonchan, Hitmonlee and Kabutops).

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5

 

[3DSNinja]

for Gen 1 I would love Marowak as a char. Super unique and pretty iconic.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Magikarp

Chance: 0.1%
So it comes to this.

Strictly speaking, there are worse choices out there; Magikarp at least flounders on the upper crust of Pokemon that everyone know about. Heck, there's a mobile game based around it. Otherwise, one simply looks at a body without limbs to hold items or ledges, or attacks beyond assumed water abilities that pretty much every other Water-type can wield. You could do it...but would it be worth the effort? Would Sakurai really choose to reach for another Piranha Plant-esque reveal like this? Because that's the only way I see Magikarp ever getting considered, and that wouldn't even account for how The Pokemon company would react to such a decision.

Want: 0.1%
If we were making a true parody roster for Smash Bros, then Magikarp is an ideal choice. But in these circumstances, there's simply so much better one can do.


Nominations
Undertale representative x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over new day

 

[Sari]

Ryota Hayami

Chance: 1%
Not third party, already a spirit, mountain load of more popular first party competition, and his series has been dead for nearly 2 decades. Although the producer of the Wave Race series talked about a possible Switch revival for the series last year, I think it's way too late for that to affect his chances in Smash since we haven't heard or seen anything of the revival since.

Want: 20%
I think it'd be great to represent some lesser known Nintendo franchises in Smash via playable characters. That said however I have no attachment to Wave Race or Ryota at all though.

Style Savvy rep chance prediction: 3.13%
Hat Kid chance prediction: 0.1% (flat out deconfirmed by the creators of AHiT)

Nominations:
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x5

 

[Flyboy]

Ryota Hayami
Chance: 1%
Let's just get this out of the way: he's a Spirit with a pretty cool battle that I enjoyed very much. This means deconfirmation. Wave Race as a series is dead despite rumors of them wanting to make a new one for Switch. It's very very very unlikely we will ever get a playable rep in Smash when they didn't even bother adding music for his Spirit battle. Unless they blindside me tomorrow and announce Wave Race Shining Sea or something it ain't happening.

Want: 99%
MY TIME HAS COME. IT'S LIKE TWO DAYS JUST FOR ME.

So, as I have explained in my official Wave Race/Ryota Hayami thread, plug plug, I originally started supporting Ryota as a bit of a laugh. Wave Race was the first out-there series that was iconic but no one actually talked about that I could think of. However, upon revisiting the games I realized I loved them, especially Blue Storm which is up there with Wipeout HD Fury and Mario Kart 8 as one of my favorite racing games of all time.

Ryota himself isn't exactly in my most-wanted. I think he's an awesome character and he and Akari Hayami are my main choices when I play Blue Storm (and maybe one day I'll campaign for Akari and 1080 Snowboarding) but for more than just fighter rep I want Ryota for stage and music rep.

Wave Race is a beautiful series. The environments look stunning even today, with Southern Island, Dolphin Park, and Central Harbor being my favorite ones. The way the games use noise to accentuate a gorgeous and atmospheric soundtrack blows me away. I even used samples from Southern Island on one of the songs on an album I released, plug plug. There's a weight to the sound design that tickles me pink and the idea of jamming to some high-energy guitar or trance while fighting it out on a sun-drenched race track with water hazards, jet ski riders, dolphins...that just sounds awesome to me.

I'm sorry, but Wuhu Island doesn't do it for me. It's cool but it's a traveling stage that takes you to places with some odd layouts. I'd love a full Dolphin Park stage with large blast zones and stunning scenery and even weather and day/night hazards.

I do think Ryota as a fighter is hard to conceptualize, unlike my most-wanted first party who we will be discussing next. He could be a fun reference to all of Nintendo's sports titles with snowboarding and his jet ski and maybe even crazier things like volleyball or golf or tennis involved. I'm really not sure and I can't claim to be that great at making movesets or gimmicks. But that doesn't mean I don't want to see a series I love get represented in another game I love, and I feel like the series has so much to add especially on the music front that I can't help but really want Wave Race in.

Wave Race 64 was one of the first N64 games ever made. Wave Race Blue Storm was a big early GameCube title. They both hold up. Wave Race on the Game Boy even got good reviews. It's a great series that isn't really obscure - just dormant and not talked about. It deserves better. And, yeah, I want that "better" to at least be solid representation in Smash with a killer stage and even a fighter.

Nominations: Poochy x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Ryota Hayami

Chance: 0 - A first party character from a dead series has virtually no chance(other than the character I'm going to nom which is due to special circumstances), especially from a series that wasn't even the 2nd most popular racing series in Nintendo history. Would make absolutely no sense with who we have and who is rumored for DLC right now. Only chance I see for Ryota to get is if we get another pack focusing on only retro reps, but even then feels like a long shot.

Want: Abstain

Noms:
Porky x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain because I have literally never heard of this character.
Nom: Black Mage x3, Specter Knight x2

 

[SPEN18]

Ryota Hayami

Chance: 0%
He's first party, and also "dead." He just doesn't have that many ways to secure a spot, especially with competition so fierce for what remains of the DLC.

Want: 55%
I like him. Perhaps he has more potential in terms of moveset than people would think, and crucially, he comes from a first party franchise without a playable rep. I'd probably even take him over another F-Zero rep. There are, however, bigger fish to fry than Wave Race in terms of unrepped franchises, so it'd be a bit weird to see him before stuff like Golden Sun or Rhythm Heaven. But he gets good marks overall.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ryoto
Chance: 0%
Currently dead series, there are tons of first-parties more profitable and popular than him and I think even Sakurai would have a hard time working on a moveset all the time. Wouldn't he have to be on a jet ski the whole time, a water only vehicle, only in a handful of stages?

Want: 1%
Not really interested in Wave race. There are many ffirs-party characters I'd prefer.

Style Savvy: 1.68%
Hat Kid: 0.08%
Metal Sonic x5

 

[BowserKing]

Ryoto
Chance: 5%
I not too familiar with this character (or franchise). Plus he has a lot of competition to get through, but chances are, it's not quite likely, at least as a playable character.

Want: 50%
Mostly likely case scenario, Ryoto would be an assist trophy. It could be possible, but there are other characters more likely to get in, but who knows.

Noms:
2 for Gooey
1 for Kamek
2 for another Joke Fighter

 

[GoodGrief741]

King of the sea

Chance: 1%
He's a Spirit. Plus Wave Race is super dead and imo unlikely to make a comeback too soon. But I expect Nintendo to at least throw a rerelease of Wave Race 64 on the eShop, sometime.

Want: 100%
Nintendo characters are great, more of em please. To be honest the only way I can see them making Ryota playable is like a water-based Captain Falcon. Which sounds awesome. Plus we get Wave Race music, a stage, all the meat and potatoes.

Noms: Crono X5

 

[GoodGrief741]

PSA: Today is the last day you can affect the top 7.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Magikarp pre-Ryota Hayami

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x202
Sly Cooper x190
Concept: World of Light expansion x185
Q*Bert x179
Kat & Ana x150
Tracer x148
Poochy x148

150 - 101

Vaati x145
Concept: Boss Rush x135
Porky Minch x133
Bonkers (Kirby) x130
Concept: Undertale rep x130
Ryu Hayabusa x130
Amy Rose x115
Brash the Bear x115
Impa x106
Yuri Lowell x105

100 - 51

Nathan Drake x100
Concept: Microsoft Rep x100
Aloy x100
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x100
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x95
Lora (Xenoblade) x95
Freddi Fish and Luther (Freddi Fish) x95
[Rerate] Erdrick x95
Black Mage (Final Fantasy) x92
Creeper x86
Boss: Kracko x85
9-Volt x74
Noctis Lucis Caelum x70
Spyro x67
Frogger x65
Jin Kazama x65
Ninten x56
Concept: Fire Emblem Three Houses rep x55
Tetromino x55

50 - 25

Metal Sonic x50
Papyrus x41
Frisk x40
Concept: Square Enix rep x40
Morrigan Aensland x40
Decidueye x38
X (Mega Man) x34
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
[Rerate] 2B x30
Kamek x30
Adeleine (Kirby) x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25

Under 25

Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Earthworm Jim x20
Gooey (Kirby) x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Reporter & Wrestler x15
Palico x15
Concept: DLC challenges x15
Brian (Quest 64) x12
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Amaterasu x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Tora and Poppi x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x10
Saber (Fate) x10
Concept: Free updates (Splatoon-style) x8
Concept: Persona Spirits x7
Marx (Kirby) x7
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Black Shadow x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
King Boo x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Crono x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Kyle Hyde x5
Mike Jones x5
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Eight (Dragon Quest) x3
[Rerate] Slime (Dragon Quest) x3
Specter Knight x3
Boss: Sans x2
Urbosa x1
Stahl x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

No fan favorites crosses 200 noms. Sly Cooper steals second place from World of Light expansion. Kat & Ana nab fifth place from Tracer, who falls into a tie with Poochy for sixth.

Yuri Lowell braves past 100 noms.

Three Houses rep and Tetromino pass the 50 nom mark.

Today's newcomer is Specter Knight, with 3 noms.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sports dude.

0%

-He is a spirit. While they do not decofirm, they do not help.
-Not much fan demand I am afraid. Wave Race has kinda been a dead franchise.

Call me when we get switched up wave race and I might consider it.

Abstain Want

Tracer x 5

 

[Ridrool64]

Literally every context I've heard of this guy is about Smash.

Chance: Nintendo picked the DLC, and I'm pretty sure that if Wave Race was on the table, it'd need to be an alive series or have a super huge fanbase, preferably both. As far as I can tell, it has neither, so for the life of me I cannot see a good reason why they would have chosen Ryota Hayami from Wave Race, short of a planned revival. I don't like handing out 0% chances, but sadly Ryota is somebody who's really waiting until retro-dom.

Want: 20%. I mean I've never had any experience with Wave Race, and from the looks of it, it's not to my tastes. Flat because not puzzle char/Sega char.

Sly Cooper x 5.