Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 ... yeah, so my nominations for Quote x5 weren't counted, is there a reason for that?

You didn’t give enough reasoning.

 

[Ridrool64]

Snipperclips Character: 0% Chance, their music is generic and goes in the others section, they are not happening.

Want: 15%, the demo was okay but it's not something I'll buy.

All Star Versus Chance: 30%. It can be done, but it doesn't seem like anybody on the Smash dev team had the idea.

Want: 70%. More modes is more fun after all.

Noms: Unique Puzzle Game Rep x 5.

 

[Kotor]

Snip and Clip
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

I don't see them ever happening as a playable character. They can't exactly do much in the case of grabbing other characters. Plus isn't Snipperclips meant to be played by 2 people? I played the game with a friend of mine and it's cute and charming and that's about it. I'll take a Snipperclips stage I guess.

All-Star Versus
Chance: Abstain
Want: Abstain

I've never touched Project M, and am I right to assume the final match at Smash Tour is the closest thing to it? Squad Strike seems to be a variant to the concept with the exception being it's not one big continuous match.

Toon Zelda x5

Still want Three Houses character concept dropped for redundancy.

 

[Koopaul]

I'm a little confused as to the schedule of who we are rating. What is scheduled for this week?

 

[Sari]

I'm a little confused as to the schedule of who we are rating. What is scheduled for this week?

After Beast Ball and Punch-Out newcomer are rated, we should be rating whoever has the top spots on the nominations list.

 

[Koopaul]

Oh that's odd. I thought we started rating the top noms on Sunday.

 

[Sid-cada]

Snip and Clip

Chance - 0% - They got a song with a generic icon. That should be taken as a sign that they aren't getting a character.

Want - 35% - Not interested. I don't think they can really do anything.


All-Star Versus

Chance - 20% - While they could do it, Squad Strike... strikes me as too similar in concept to be implemented. You can probably get a near-same effect by having Squad Strike on the same stage over and over.

Want - 55% - I can take it, I guess, though Squad Strike seems similar enough that I wonder why the two would be implemented in the same game. It'd feel like wasted develeopment, IMO.


Nominations

Slime X5

 

[PeridotGX]

Abstaning on ASV, as Squad Strike is either the exact same or very simmilar.

Snip and Clip

Chance: 1%. They got a song on the site. With a generic icon. That basically killed their chances.

Want: Abstain.

Nominations: CSE x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

You didn’t give enough reasoning.

Well then. I thought I had enough sentences for my explanation. Guess that means that it would be best if I abstain out of safety. I have the capability to provide reasoning for my previous post. If I do so, could they possibly be counted?

Abstain, making sure that I am...

NOMINATING: QUOTE X5

 

[DaUsername]

ASV
Chance: 99%
Squad Strike seems to pretty much be an official version of this. So I guess it's confirmed?
Want: 100%
It's a pretty cool game mode. It would be fun to play.
Snippy and Clippy
Chance: 0%
Too recent, small fanbase, and we got Snipperclips music using a generic music logo. Do I need to go on?
Want: N/A

FE prediction: 0%
Octopath prediction: 0%
Noms: Chorus Kids x5

 

[Artix]

Double abstaining today.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

GoodGrief741 , I went back and added the extra sentences that I really though I had from the beginning. If the nominations still don't count, I understand that it is probably most fair that way. I'm just really pressing for nominations at the moment with the purge about a week away, and really thought that I met the requirements, which is why I didn't bother to change it during the 48 hour day... Yikes...

 

[GoodGrief741]

GoodGrief741 , I went back and added the extra sentences that I really though I had from the beginning. If the nominations still don't count, I understand that it is probably most fair that way. I'm just really pressing for nominations at the moment with the purge about a week away, and really thought that I met the requirements, which is why I didn't bother to change it during the 48 hour day... Yikes...

Sorry, can’t change them now. There’s a bit of leeway if you were to add sentences between the time TCT~Phantom ends the day and the time I calculate noms, but anything beyond that is a no-go.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Sorry, can’t change them now. There’s a bit of leeway if you were to add sentences between the time TCT~Phantom ends the day and the time I calculate noms, but anything beyond that is a no-go.

Okay then, I gotcha. That makes the most sense for fairness, so I won't complain anymore than I have. No worries, sorry about that.

On a different note, day end soon TCT~Phantom ?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

BREAKING NEWS: FINAL SUPER SMASH BROS ULTIMATE DIRECT ANNOUNCED FOR NOVEMBER 1ST AT 10:00 A.M. EST!

Nintendo has announced the final direct for Super Smash Bros. Ultimate for November 1st, at 7 AM PT / 10 AM ET
You can catch it here: https://t.co/tmtW2AKgA3 pic.twitter.com/n7YTD06n4i

— Toad’s Nintendo News (@MailToadINTEL) October 30, 2018

It's about time we finally got another direct...
Too bad I'm gonna be in class...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Well, that happened. Due to this, purge will get a delay, we will tomorrow do predictions, then reactions, then satisfaction ratings.

Furthermore, if this is the final direct, which tbh I slightly doubt since they we could get a reveal in a November direct and this could just be the last direct for smash only, we will transition into dlc. That means a new fixed schedule, a cleaned noms list, etc. most of the non deconfirmed heavy hitters will be on the list.

In order to hold over in the event that happens, we will be doing a couple of highlight days. Fav least fave points of speculation, stuff like that.

 

[WaddleMatt]

I am so excited for the DLC speculation period!

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

That means a new fixed schedule, a cleaned noms list, etc.

N O O O! I knew it would be inevitable... Ah well Quote, the times have been hard on us, but we may be able to rate you as DLC. Guess I gotta renominate you...

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Does that mean that the purge will completely wipe out every character on the nominations list?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Does that mean that the purge will completely wipe out every character on the nominations list?

Yep, it's a HUUUGE shame. RIP Xurkitree, I feel ya sorrow RealPokeFan11 ...

 

[Kotor]

Does that mean that the purge will completely wipe out every character on the nominations list?

Purge is delayed per TCT's post.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Really? The Direct comes, and the only thing we ended on was a fruitless Snip & Clip triple day?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Time for predictions.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I predict Grinch real.

Also nominations coming up.

Edit: I guess Donbe & Hikari X5

 

[TheCJBrine]

I predict

He's coming.

 

[Jomosensual]

Guessing we get all of this, not necessarily in this particular order

open with a character - Probably Banjo
Details on online play
final echos revealed back to back - shadow and Ken
details on the games and more section, like home run contest, target smash, all star mode, etc
Final assist trophies, items, and Pokeballs shown off
sakuri announces the "final" roster members. Chorus Kids,Mach Rider, and Issac all have trailers run back to back that kinda flow into one another, similar to how simon and Richter's did, with each being highlighted appropriately.
spirits mode details
Closes with Geno's character reveal and a banner update

Do we do noms for DLC now? If so

Noms
Joker x5

 

[Sari]

Predictions:

GRINCH LEAK IS HAPPENING

Aside from that and Spirit mode details I have no idea what to expect.
Surprise Hilda echo or SNK mii costumes please?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I'll decide to throw a curveball and say that

THE GRINCH IS COMING!

Bet you all didn't see that coming; you thought I was going to say that the Grinch leak is fake because I mentioned it earlier and I said I was going to throw a curveball. As in so far everybody thinks the Grinch leak is happening. Spirits mode will most likely be covered as well. Every other question that we had about Smash will most likely be answered, leaving us with a complete picture about what to expect when December 7th rolls around. So Grinch leak. And hopefully Megalovania as an official, playable music track. And a Steam Gardens remix. What else am I predicting again?

Nominations: Quote x5

 

[EarlTamm]

Yeah, I am thinking the Grinch leak is gonna steal Smash bros as well. Besides that we are likely gonna get some info on the Spirits mode.

 

[Kotor]

One simple prediction: A character that was never implicated by both Vergeben and the Grinch will be the first character revealed.

Another one: Roy will speak English.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

One simple prediction: A character that was never implicated by both Vergeben and the Grinch will be the first character revealed.

I like this. I REALLLLY like this. I want this to be true so bad now. It would throw the whole community off guard, with everybody having a good idea for themselves who they think will be the very first character revealed.

I also think it would hilarious if Sakurai mentions and then utterly disproves Vergeben and/or the Grinch leak live during the Direct.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Grinch Leak is real and online play is nearly identical to Smash 4's.

 

[aarchak]

Roy will speak English.

Hopefully Cloud speaks English too. Also, hope we get dual audio.

PREDICTIONS TIME

• At least 2 new characters, but definitely no more than 3 uniques. I don't care about the Grinch leak.
• Green (Spirits) mode covered, probably another party game mode.
• Online mode covered, probably similar to Smash 4's online.
• Other game modes like stadium, all-star mode, and events are covered
• TROPHIES
• MASTERPIECES
• At least 2 new echo fighters (including Ken).

Nominations (if we're doing those)
Historical character x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I wonder if the existing nominations list will even continue to exist after Thursday. Ah, the human condition: an endless labor towards unknown goals with the doubt - nay, certainty - that in the long run none of it will matter.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Snip & Clip/All-Star Versus pre-The Last Direct

Merric (Fire Emblem) x195
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x175
Slime x148
The Prince (Katamari) x143
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x142
Sans as a boss character x142
Barbara the Bat x140
Daroach x140
Rhythm Girl x140

150 - 101

Susie Haltmann x139
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x138
Chorus Kids x138
Saki Amamiya x135
Concept: Cross series Echoes x135
Stage: Poke Floats x130
2B x126
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x96
Concept: Historical Character x95
Toon Zelda x95
Joker (Persona) x94
9-Volt x93
Quote x91
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x86
[Rerate] Sora x85
Stage: Melemele Island x85
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x85
Earthworm Jim x84
[Rerate] Steve? x83
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x75
Veronica x73
Item: Breidablik x65
Kat & Ana x63
Endou Mamoru x62
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x59
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Adeleine x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x29
[Rerate] Gengar x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

The Prince rolls over Susie Haltmann, Barbara the Bat and Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist, ends in fourth place. Sans as a boss character, Daroach and Rhythm Girl bust into the top seven, the former tying with Project Zero/Fatal Frame protagonist for fifth, the latter two stuck in a three-way tie with Barbara the Bat for seventh. Susie Haltmann is kicked out.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Hey GoodGrief741 and TCT~Phantom , because we have a very limited amount of time left that we can rate chances and make predictions for the base game for Smash Ultimate, what do you all say we get 10 nominations instead of 5 today and tomorrow? I mean, it won't make a difference really if we learn about everything left to know about Smash, and it could sort of be "going out with a bang" before DLC speculation.

 

[Dee Dude]

Direct Predictions:
-Grinch leak is legit but not all of them will revealed, the rest will shown either solo or in a General Direct
-Shadow & Ken as the final Echo segment
-Spirits is an adventure mode
-Online play
-Final items and ATs shown
-More showcases on veterans and the Final Smashes we haven’t seen
-Trophies, Masterpieces and other modes shown
-DLC is hinted at the end

 

[RealPokeFan11]

DIRECT PREDICTIONS:
You're a leaker, Mr. Grinch.

Starts off with a character reveal (Most likely Isaac or Banjo)
Shows off character info and new stages etc.
New Echo fighters
Shows stuff about Spirits mode and other game modes
Another character reveal
Info on that character
New items, ATs, Pokeballs. (Disconfirmation round)
Some sort of surprise feature
More character reveals

We'll see how this goes...

Spoiler

Hey, at least Steve's not in!

NOMINATIONS: XURKITREE x5 (Someone help me out here)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The direct reveals 7 characters. The grinch leak isn't real however, we'll get three unique fighters and four echoes. Isaac, Bandana Dee and a western third-party (Banjo or Rayman I cannot choose) Echoes are Dixie, Impa, Ken and a Sonic echo.

Spirits is talked about. It's a Meleelike adventure mode featuring Smash run enemies.

Returning modes get their spotlight. (All star, Target smash, stage builder, etc)

Means of unlocking characters will be mentioned.

Final Items/Pokeball/Assist trophies reel with some heartbreaking confirmations. (Incineroar, Geno, Shantae, Chibi Robo, etc)

Smash ballot will be mentioned in some way.

Direct ends with a dlc teaser, just like the Fifty fact extravaganza.

The prince x5

 

[ChronoKatie]

Locking in with Ken, Incineroar, Dante, and possibly Sora, Shadow or a DQ character. ^_^

 

[NineS]

This is a list of characters I expect or find to be likely to be revealed.
Please note it's a little old though. At least a month or two old by now.

Direct Prediction though, 2B or not 2B. That is all.