Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[aarchak]

Edelgard

Chance: 0% Base 1% DLC
Obviously, she's not happening at base. As for DLC, I doubt it, we already got Chrom, and Sakurai has already said we have too many FE characters, so he may not add another. But, and this is a small chance, we COULD have another Corrin situation on our hands, where she's added in to promote Three Houses.
Want: 5%
Until I know more about her, I'm not really interested much. She may turn out to be someone I want in Smash a lot, or I might hate her more than Corrin. Who knows?

Boss Black Knight

Chance: 10%
I don't really think BK would work as a boss. He just isn't big enough. He's about the size of current Ridley, and so to make him work you either need to make him fast (which he isn't), or reduce the size of the arena, which would be difficult to do without making the fight frustratingly hard. There is more to this, but I don't really want to go on a rant on game design. However, Sakurai is a madman in the best way, so he may make it work.
Want: 30%
Not TOO interested, but it could be cool. I always liked BK, but I don't know if it would work well honestly.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

We have had so much FE content rated in such a short amount of time and I don't know what to think.

EDELGARD

Edelgard's design is not all that amazing in my opinion. She originates from a game that has not yet been released, so there is already a lot against her. I feel like after Chrom, the general consensus is to stop with the inclusion of Fire Emblem fighters for the moment, and if there would be more, it would be a character who has received historical support from the Smash and FE communities. According to many, the amount of FE characters available was already a problem in Sm4sh, and we already have an additional one for Ultimate in the form of Chrom. As of now, the amount that we the consumers know about Edelgard's character design and playability is very limited. Me personally, I don't like her all that much, so I don't want her as a fighter. Nintendo also will not add a character that hasn't even been released in its origin game. I will abstain on any chance or want for DLC, because that is the moment when we'll actually discover more about Edelgard...

Chance: 0%

Want 0%

DLC Chance/Want: Abstain

BLACK KNIGHT AS A BOSS

Right off of the bat, I am going to abstain on chance.

I'm just going to state the facts. If we do get a story mode for Ultimate that includes boss battles, then there will not be any bosses arriving in the form of DLC. Once a story is set, it's set; no changing afterward. Unless Nintendo plans on releasing an alternative Story Mode with a completely new playstyle and brand new boss battles, there will not be any new bosses after release. Because of this, the likelihood that Black Knight arrives can be solely independent on whether he arrives as a boss in the base game. If this does not happen, he will not arrive at all...

DLC Chance: 0%

DLC Want: 0%

Because I am abstaining on chance, I can go into personal opinions for want. I just have to say, the one thing that I do not want to see is Black Knight as a playable character; his design just screams "BOSS!", and I feel like he would be a better boss than a character. If that can't happen, then his appearance should not happen at all. Not even as an Ike Echo. Still, a FE boss character sure would be a breath of fresh air to see and fight. Therefore, my want score is artificially higher due to me not wanting any alternative for Black Knight besides him being a boss...

Want: 75%

Nominations: Quote x5

Prediction Snip/Clip: 1.1%
Prediction Allstar Versus: 51%

 

[Sid-cada]

Edelgard

Chance - 0% - I don't think another Roy is happening. She's not not even out yet, and Sakurai states he is already somewhat wary on adding more Fire Emblem characters. While she is a likely candidate for DLC, I don't count that for my ratings.

Want - 20% - I'm only interested in having Anna as a playable character from Fire Emblem. I don't care about the rest.


Black Knight as Boss

Chance - 5% - I bit too unlikely. You could probably just make a Giant Metal Ike, slap a new model with a few moves, and call it a day. I don't think Sakurai would go for that, though. I think a Fire Emblem boss would probably be one of the dragons.

Want - 50% - I don't have an opinion on this. I can take it, I guess.

 

[PeridotGX]

Is it a new day yet?

 

[Troykv]

and Sakurai states he is already somewhat wary on adding more Fire Emblem characters. While she is a likely candidate for DLC, I don't count that for my ratings.

Well; I'm not completely sure how that completely affects the chances of FE Characters; but I'm sure that basically means that Sakurai won't add uninspired FE Characters unless there's a very good reason to do it (like with Chrom).

 

[jamesster445]

Edgelord
Chance- 50%
Want- 50%

It's honestly best to abstain at this point. We know very little of the character aside from the fact she has an axe. She may not be as important as we may think resulting in another "Azura". That said I know some people are under an impression that they wouldn't add more FE characters. Expect the worst, Sakurai is already talking about Three Houses in Marth's memory, it's happening. You might think Sakurai wouldn't, but you know he would.

Black Knight Boss
Chance- 50%
Want- 50%

Yeah sure why not.

Nomination - Tora and Poppi x5

 

[Sari]

Can someone tell me what exactly tomorrow's concept of "All-star versus mode" is? Isn't this basically just what the new Smashdown mode is?

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Can someone tell me what exactly tomorrow's concept of "All-star versus mode" is? Isn't this basically just what the new Smashdown mode is?

Yeah... I couldn't tell you. I'm thinking that it's literally a return of All-Star mode with the inclusion of competition between two players, but it'll probably be announced by TCT~Phantom when the day ends

 

[DaUsername]

Can someone tell me what exactly tomorrow's concept of "All-star versus mode" is? Isn't this basically just what the new Smashdown mode is?

An official equivalent of this:

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

An official equivalent of this:

But isn't Squad Strike basically this?

 

[Sari]

But isn't Squad Strike basically this?

I thought this too but after rewatching the Direct I realized how Squad Strike is different.

Unless I'm mistaken, Squad Strike uses a series of separate matches to determine the winner. So say the teams are vs and Mario beats Peach. Mario will then fight Daisy but the stage will reset. The character switch is an entirely new fight and doesn't happen in the middle of the previous one.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I’ll end the day at 6, discuss more if we keep all Star vs, right now I’m in favor.

 

[Cycrum]

But isn't Squad Strike basically this?

Squad Strike seems to have a version of All-Star Versus with more limitations. You can't play every character in one match using Squad Strike as far as we know. We could still discuss a fully fledged All-Star Versus like the one in Project M.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Edelgard
Chance: 1%
Not putting 0 because I know Sakurai loves him some Fire Emblem and has access to IS' plans.

Want: 0%
Even though I've been warming up to Fire Emblem, I'd rather see someone actually popular make it first rather than the next promotional character. Probably a huge chance for DLC once her game is out or near completion as people have asked for an axe user.

Black Knight as a boss
Chance: Abstain
Absolutely no clue how bosses will be chosen, but if FE gets one he's a solid choice.

Want: 50%
Well, he's at least a bit popular and has a connection with Ike. I guess a boss is fine?

 

[Tew]

Edelgard:

Chance: 1% [Base]; 20% [DLC]
I will take a small section from my Fjorm post for this:
"Three Houses Character: Similar situation to Corrin. Corrin was revealed about 5 and a half months after Fe Fates release (and released 6 months after Fates). Less than 7 months after Smash 4 release, the first DLC Fighter was released (Mewtwo) and 9 months after release the first Fighters that probably weren´t revealed before release. Three Houses is still scheduled for early 2019, likely releasing 1 to 4 months after Smash. So, what does all of this math tell us. Nothing much really. Maybe that a Three Houses Character could be one of the first DLC Fighters, if there even will be DLC.
Aside from that, which Character seems likely. So far, we only know about the Protagonist Byleth and the main Characters Edelgard, Dimitiri and Claude. [I would say it´s probably a similar relation like Robin (Prota) with Chrom (Main Character/Lord)] They all look unique, except maybe Byleth. So far, we only saw him use a sword and he also has a “close to Marth-like” Hairstyle and colour. Though Edelgard, who uses primarily an axe, called him teacher, maybe implying he is able to use multiple weapons. Though please don´t make it like Corrin and Robin and give him a sword as well. On the other side we have Edelgard, who uses an axe and was seen using magic, as well as a sword, but the axe definitely seems to be her clear focus, Dimitiri, who uses a lance and Claude, the first main Character to focus on a bow (Alm and Lyn only use a bow secondarily). The E3 Trailer in my opinion clearly had the focus on Edelgard and a bit on Byleth. I think Dimitiri and Claude will play a slightly smaller role, possibly throwing them out of the race. With the Trailer focus and the more unique design and weaponry (as of our current knowledge) Edelgard strikes me as the better choice, but Byleth has a good chance too."

Want: 70%
I like her design and what we have seen so far of her. But mostly I just want a Fighter with an axe in Smash and she seems to be the best bet for now.



Abstain on Black Knight

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

TCT~Phantom , the day has now been a rough 48 hours, and past 6 PM...

 

[Fire Tactician]

Edgelord

Chance- 0%

Way too new- we'd have Rex and Pyra if we were getting new characters. She has a ton of DLC potential and I'd give her an 80% had we been discussing DLC possibilities, but she's got no chance at the base roster.

Want- 100%

I love the FE characters in Smash, and I'd be thrilled to finally see an axe user. I'll fully support her when she gets announced as DLC if that's the case, though I hope desperately that they don't focus on the sword that she can use.

---

Black Knight as a Boss

Chance- 30%

One of FE's most iconic villains- sounds good to me! His supposed disappearance from the throne is incredibly suspect... He also has a Mii Fighter outfit, which isn't a done deal, but seems to go with that trend.

Want- 100%

Again, one of the most iconic villains from a series that I love. I'd be thrilled to see him get the best chance at representation in Smash that he could.

 

[WaddleMatt]

New day?? Erm...

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Sorry for late something came up.

Sora x5

Day over new day

 

[WaddleMatt]

Snip and Clip:

Chance - 0%

If they were i nwe wouldn't have got the music for them yet. Also keep in mind when the ballot took place, they stand no chance.

Abstaining from Want.

All-Star Versus:

Double Abstaining.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Sari]

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips)

Chance: 0%
Not popular enough and created way too late into Ultimate’s development timeframe. It seems like the type of thing you’d expect as an assist trophy not as an actual character.

Want: 0%
Again this just screams assist trophy material. There are tons of other characters I'd prefer to see over these guys.

-----

All-star Versus

Chance: 10%
So up until yesterday I thought that the new squad strike mode was literally just all-star versus (each stock is a different character). After rewatching the August Direct I now realize that squad strike takes place in more than just one match and each victory results in a completely new fight with a different character. I think this is the closest thing we'll get to all-star versus.

Want: 100%
A King of Fighters styled mode where we can use multiple characters in one match? Sounds awesome to me.

-----

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[RileyXY1]

Snip & Clip

Chance: 0%

A Snipperclips song was already posted, and it lacks a symbol. They have no chance.

Want: 0%

They don't interest me at all

All Star Versus

Chance: 10%

It just seems redundant with Squad Strike and Smashdown, which are the same concept with different executions.

Want: 50%

It's cool, but it doesn't interest me that much.

Nominate: Kat & Ana x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Snipperclippers:

Chance: 1% - They don't seem to be in base as they already have a song without a logo, but I guess they could be for DLC. I still don't find them too likely, though.

Want: Abstain - I don't care one way or the other.

All-Star Versus:

Chance: 15% - I'm not really sure what this is, but with other people bringing up Smash Down and stuff, I'll have to say it's not likely. I agree with others; it might be redundant.

Want: Yet another abstain - I don't care either way.

Nominations:

Chorus Kids x4
Steve? x1

 

[RealPokeFan11]

SLAP AND CRAP
Chance: 0%
DLC: 0%
Want: 0%

I think this is my first ever TRIPLE ZEROES.

Grinched, too late in Ultimate's development, no moveset potential, nobody's requesting them, this one's not happening. Also very uninteresting as a pair of characters. The game itself was an instant pass for me when I first got my switch, as it gives me this overly silly/dumb vibe similar to Freakyforms Deluxe: Creations Alive. Ugh...

ALL-STAR VERSUS
Chance: 95%
Want: 100%

Correct me if I'm wrong, but we somewhat already have this mode in the game called "Squad Strike". The difference is that you bring a team of 5 characters every battle instead of the entire roster to the fight. Who wouldn't want more modes though? More modes = more fun if you ask me.

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Snipperclips:
It's a cute game, but how would they even work? I'm personally not a fan of random shapes as characters (sorry Game+Watch and Tetris Block!)
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Smash Tour, but without the Tour:
Chance: 50%
There's a good chance that there will be some variation of Smash Down that allows players to do exactly this. Honestly, people have been asking for and predicting this since Smash Tour did it but inexplicably tied to it to the terrible board game mechanics. So presumably the developers have heard them since we got a variant of it revealed already.

Want: 100%
I'm one of those people that has been asking for and predicting this since Smash Tour. I honestly expected it for DLC during Smash 4...

Noms: KOS-MOS x5 (maybe? I dunno, I forgot to check who is available for noms at this point... gimme a better/legal suggestion and I'll change it.)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Noms: KOS-MOS x5 (maybe? I dunno, I forgot to check who is available for noms at this point... gimme a better/legal suggestion and I'll change it.)

DjinnandTonic Some help for Xurkitree would be appreciated

 

[Jomosensual]

Double abstain

Noms
Joker x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Edelgard/Black Knight as a boss pre-Snip & Clip/All-Star Versus

Merric (Fire Emblem) x190
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x175
Slime x143
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x142
Barbara the Bat x140
Susie Haltmann x139
The Prince (Katamari) x138

150 - 101

Sans as a boss character x137
Daroach x135
Saki Amamiya x135
Rhythm Girl x135
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x133
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Concept: Cross series Echoes x130
2B x126
Chorus Kids x124
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x96
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Concept: Historical Character x90
Toon Zelda x90
Joker (Persona) x89
9-Volt x88
Silvally x86
Quote x86
[Rerate] Sora x85
[Rerate] Steve? x82
Stage: Melemele Island x80
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x80
Earthworm Jim x79
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x75
Veronica x73
Item: Breidablik x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Kat & Ana x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x54
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

[Rerate] Spyro x45
Adeleine x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x29
[Rerate] Gengar x29
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Project Zero/Fatal Fame protagonist jumps past Susie Haltmann and Barbara the Bat, nabs fourth place.

Donbe & Hikari sail past 50 nominations.

 

[Smasher 101]

Abstaining from All-Star Versus

Snip and Clip

Chance: 0%

The fact that a Snipperclips song already showed up without a logo is probably enough to write them off. Even beyond that, a more unconventional choice without much demand that more than likely showed up way too late doesn't strike me as an idea that stands much of a chance anyway.

Want: 20%

I have to admit they could be interesting if done right. I have no attachment though and prefer plenty of others.

Nominations: Chrous Kids x5

Sorry Saki, I think these guys need to be rated at this point.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Snip & Clip

Chance: 0%
Not much to say - a Snipperclips song came without an appropriate logo. While their gimmick is interesting, it's a co-op gimmick, and not something that works as well when it's just one person handling both. Combine that with a relatively late release and a middling popularity, and you'd have to be pretty devoted to their game to see them as having a good chance up to now.

Want: 30%
I shrug. They're not particularly objectionable, but that's more because they're long and unwanted as Smash candidates.


All-Star Versus

Chance: 50%
You'd think Squad Strike was already doing this, but then again, you'd think Smash Tour letting people run multiple characters meant there was a "swap characters per stock" mode in Smash 4 as well. I don't know if we'll get this clarified before launch, but I'm sure there's got to be a reason for this mode to exist; if it were just individual matches that simply played out consecutively, then the effect could already be easily done in plain old Smash mode.

Want: 99%
Let us pick multiple characters for a single match already! Everyone knows it's an attractive concept, most of all Sakurai, who put All-Star mode in Melee in the first place.


Nominations
Sans (boss) x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Snip & Clip

Chance: 0%
They’re probably disconfirmed already with their song not having a logo. Then again, I guess you could say the logo wasn’t revealed as to not spoil the surprise.

But yeah, they pretty much can’t be in, barring a miracle. Debuting in 2017 does that to you.

Want: 100%
Mark my words: in ten years, Snip & Clip will be underdog picks with around 20-ish supporters, and people calling Snipperclips an underrated gem. They would probably be one of the most mechanically unique characters in any fighting game ever: a duo, plus the fact that hitboxes are literally only on the character itself and what they overlaps. They certainly have potential.

Plus they’re cute. And also my hard-on for obscure first party franchises.

Damn it Sakurai, give these guys an AT so I can start building support. I’m playing the long con here.

All-Star Versus

Double abstain

I don’t know what this is. Even if I knew, I wouldn’t know how to rate it. Even if I did, I don’t care.

Nominations: Donbe & Hikari X5

 

[Deleted member]

Daily "Abstaining on both" post.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain on both, Daroach x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

GoodGrief741 ... yeah, so my nominations for Quote x5 weren't counted, is there a reason for that?

 

[AirMac1]

Snip And Clip

Chance:15%-While some people said that they had a zero percent chance, I disagree. So what if they were created in 2017, who says that Sakurai couldn’t of been given concept art beforehand, like with the Pokémon. And let’s face it, Sakurai loves himself some obscure characters.

Want:80%-They would be cool, but not as cool as other obscure characters like 9-volt and Freakyforms. Also, since I’ve never played their game, and also thought they were from the Freakyforms franchise at first, I don’t feel right giving them an 100% want score.

Noms:9-volt x5

Edit:Forgot to put that I’m abstraining on all-star mode, because I don’t understand it.

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining
Merric x5

 

[aarchak]

Snip n' Clip

Chance: 0% Base 2% DLC
Not happening at base due to being too late. However, they have a slight chance at DLC thanks to their timing If not, they'll probably get a trophy.
Want: 20%
Ehh, I really don't care. I've seen Snipperclips, it seems fun, but I don't know how much I want them as fighters.

All-Star VS

Chance: 0%
It's already done by Squad Strike. I know they aren't the same, mind you, but I think Squad Strike and Smashdown fill its niche enough that I don't think we'll get it.
Want: 0%
Meh, I'll take Squad Strike and Smashdown over this. I'm fine with what we got now.

Nominations
Historical Character x5

 

[skylanders fan]

abstaining
nominating earthworm jim x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining on Snip n' Clip

All Star VS
Chance: 0.1%
Besides Spirits I don't think they are hiding anymore new modes. This would also kinda defeat the purpose of Squad Strike, I can't really imagine them coexcisting.

Want: 75%
I only just recently found out these two are not the same, which makes Squad Strike a bit dissapointing to me. I can live without it but it's still unfortunate.

The prince x5

 

[Pacack]

I'm abstaining on All-Star Versus today.

Snip n' Clip
Chance: 1.5%
I honestly just don't think they could have known whether Snipperclips would be well received or not, so I don't think they would add them for base game.

Want: Abstain.

Nominations: Historical Character x5