Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

By double days I meant we’re rating two characters a day. I’ve no clue why TCT~Phantom hasn’t started the next one.

Ohhh ok I get it now.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Double abstain

Nominations:

Merric x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

no.... just no.
Chance: 0%
DLC: 1%
Want: 0%

If you've read my signature, you will know that Sans is one of the few characters I don't want to be in Smash Bros. Same follows with Papyrus. Sans (also Papyrus to an extent) is another one of those "meme" suggestions, something along the lines of Goku and Shrek. This also contains characters from games with very "questionable" fanbases. (Undertale being a big example) I could explain why I don't want them in the game, but I don't want to go on a rant. For chances, well... Grinch. DLC could happen but Sans would come before Papyrus unless he echoes Sans. My next problem is that Sans' moveset and attacks feel much more like Final Smashes than regular specials. Just watch his boss fight and you'll understand what I mean. Sans and Papyrus would fit so much better as Spirits/adventure mode bosses imo, and I like ProfPeanut 's idea of having them as bosses.

Billybae10K sums it up pretty well.

6:50 for Sans.

Edit: I'd actually rather see Freddy Fazbear in Smash than Sans and Papyrus.

WHOBASA ORIBE?
Chance: 0%
DLC: 0.5%
Want: Abstain

Abstaining on Tsubasa Oribe. I know almost nothing about her other than she's a Fire Emblem chick from some Tokyo crossover thingy. (Just look at her casual outfits.)


Nominations: Xurkitree x5
(Trying to get into the top 7 for next batch of characters)

 

[aarchak]

The Grinch leak has been debunked by the marketing company that the leaker supposedly worked for. https://smashboards.com/threads/sma...spoilers-leaks.434391/page-6119#post-22590713

EDIT: It looks like the leaker actually works for a different company named ACP, so I guess the ride isn't over yet.

Papyrus

Chance: 0% Base, 0% DLC
No. Indies basically have no chance, and Sans is the main pick before him. He isn't getting in in a million years.
Want: 0%
Please no. Why would I want the more annoying, less interesting version of the meme pick I hate? Please keep these two far away from Smash.

Tsubasa Oribe

Chance: 0% Base,0% DLC
Why would she get in over... anyone? Not even other fan picks like Geno and Isaac, but other FE picks like Caeda and Ephraim contest her spot, and are all better picks for Smash than her.
Want: 0%
Give me a different FE character if you're going to give me another. One I care about more. Someone like Ephraim.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Papyrus

Chance - 0% - Don't main characters or mascots get in first? Even then, Undertale representation is hard to buy, given how late into the system it is being brought in.

Want - 10% - I'd rather have Undertale get content other than a character. I don't mind it, but I don't think a character fits in the roster.


Tsubasa Oribe

Chance - 0% - Her game was a commercial failure, wan't it? It wasn't what either fans wanted, and thus failed to gather the fame. As a result, she probably isn't well known. Considering that she's in the same sort of category as Linkle, and you have a no-hoper.

Want - 35% - How many times must I say Anna should be the next Fire Emblem character? I'm sure that Jack Frost would be better as a character anyway.


Nominations

Slime X5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

PAPYRUS

There should be no Undertale Fighters. There should be some other stuff from Undertale, but not Papyrus. See more...

Want: 0%

Undertale has no real history with Nintendo besides the port. This is also assuming that Sans is not Ness. If any character were going to be added, it would be Sans and Frisk. And that's almost impossible...

Chance: 0%

Same criteria goes for DLC. Not a shot, not a want. I'm saving my real discussion for the afterwards...

DLC Chance: 0%

DLC Want: 0%

I totally want to see Undertale representation, and it is probably my biggest request. However, I don't want any old representation, like trophies and such (some trophies of the main characters would be fine). What I REALLY want to see, and I won't be able to bring this up any time else, but I MUST SEE Megalovania as a music track, playable in Smash Ultimate. I need to. Megalovania is a cult-classic song that everybody knows and loves, and it would be a great fit for a fighting game (e s p e c i a l l y i f s a n s i s a f i g h t a b l e b o s s * a h e m * r a t i n g a l e r t). Besides Megalovania, Bonetrousle and either Ghost Fight or Spider Dance would also make good inclusions into the game, as my second and tied for third places, respectively. Most of the Undertale track would integrate quite nicely into Smash, and the music has also been highly acclaimed as some of the best video game music. The themes of other boss fights, such as against Toriel or Undyne could work as well, but they really aren't needed into Smash as much as Megalovania is. In my opinion. I wish we could rate the chances and wants of Track: Megalovania at some point, but we're running out of time. That would be quite the site to see.

Abstaining on chance Tswhobasa. I'm sorry, I'm personally fine with covering FE characters, and some I would like to see in. But this is just too much. With Edelgard and Merric on the horizon, I'm starting to get slightly woozy. I understand it didn't originate from Fire Emblem, but it makes me nauseous nonetheless.

Want: 0%

DLC Want: 0%

Nominations: Quote x3, [Concept]: Any Minecraft Representation x1, Viewtiful Joe x1

 

[Jomosensual]

Unfamiliar with both of these characters so another double abstain from me today

Noms:
Joker x 5

 

[DaUsername]

A Real Magic Skeleton
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I'm just gonna quote my sans post because everything I said applies here, too.

sans
Chance: 0%
And here's why giving him anything higher than a zero is wrong:
(But first, here's some High Quality music.)
1. Undertale's Switch port hasn't even released yet
Which already puts him at the bottom of the "Switch port -> Smash Bros." list, and puts him near the top of the "Too recent" list.
2. No history with Nintendo (or in general)
An upcoming Switch port doesn't really count as "history", especially when Undertale was released on the PC, PS4, and the Vita first. And the game itself isn't even three years old.
3. He isn't even the protagonist of his own game
We usually get those first.
4. He's an indie character
I shouldn't have to elaborate on this one.
Anyway, there's probably more reasons I'm not thinking of, but I think I've made my point. He's not happening. Ever.
Want: 0%
Undertale characters don't deserve to be in Smash. I'll just leave it at that.

The other one
Chance: 0%
Not only is she a Fire Emblem character, she's a Fire Emblem SPIN-OFF character! She'll be lucky if she shows up as a trophy.
Want: 0%
I've said it before, but I guess I'll say it again. We don't need any more FE characters. We have enough.

FE newcomer prediction: 0%
FE boss prediction: 10%
Noms: Chorus Kids x5

 

[AirMac1]

Abstaining from even more of a meme suggestion and another Fire Emblem character (I don’t care if it’s from a crossover anime game, it still counts!).

Noms:9-volt x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Oshare Bones in Undertale

Chance: 0%. We're getting Frisk or Sans. Nobody else is happening.

Want: 30%. It's not like I dislike Papyrus, but let's be real; he's too much of a minor character for an unrepped series.

Tsubasa Oribe

Chance: 10%. I want to say TMS makes the 2015 cutoff but she's one of the least likely FE candidates (or he, if I forgot who they are?).

Abstaining on want, not enough is known.

Noms: Unique Puzzle Game Rep x 5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Abstaining on Tsubasa; I don't know the character or their game; I see it's apparently a Fire Emblem game, and while I've heard of games and seen some stuff from the series, I've never heard of this one.

SPAGHETTI:

Chance: 1% - Undertale didn't come to the Switch until somewhat recently, and we know Sakurai sees having been on a Nintendo console a common courtesy; even if it may not be required, he still keeps it in consideration. I don't really have much else to say on this; I just don't see it being possible as the project plan for Ultimate was finalized in December 2015. The 1% I'm keeping for DLC, as even then, I still don't see it being very likely.

Want: 100% - I would love a tag-team character in the form of Sans & Papyrus, as I am an Undertale fan; they may even have some cool gimmicks, and maybe the final smash could change depending on who's leading at the moment of the final smash's activation. I know the fanbase can be toxic, but as we've seen from every other fanbase including some areas of this one...and, come on, Nyeh Heh Heh!

Nominations:

Chorus Kids x3
Steve? x2

dang, all them double zeros on Undertale...

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Dovahkiin/More than five unique newcomers pre-Papyrus/Tsubasa Oribe

Merric (Fire Emblem) x170
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x150
Barbara the Bat x140
Susie Haltmann x139
Slime x138
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x137
Sans as a boss character x132

150 - 101

Stage: Poke Floats x130
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x128
The Prince (Katamari) x128
2B x126
Daroach x125
Saki Amamiya x125
Rhythm Girl x125
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Concept: Cross series Echoes x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Chorus Kids x103
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x86
Concept: Historical Character x80
Toon Zelda x80
Earthworm Jim x79
[Rerate] Steve? x79
Joker (Persona) x79
9-Volt x78
Quote x78
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
[Rerate] Sora x75
Stage: Melemele Island x75
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x74
Veronica x73
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x70
Item: Breidablik x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Concept: DLC character pass x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Kat & Ana x48
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Adeleine x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x29
[Rerate] Gengar x28
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
Meloetta x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Chorus Kids sing past 100 noms. They probably have a green furry guy to thank for this.

 

[Sari]

Papyrus

Chance: 0%
He's from a non-Nintendo exclusive indie title that only appeared on a Nintendo system after roster planning. He’d also have to compete with his more popular brother Sans anyway. I can maybe see him getting a trophy (if there are even trophies in Ultimate at all) but that’s it.

Want: 0%
Please no. Papyrus is basically "LUUUL I'M SO RANDOM AND WACKY xD xD" personified and there are better indie characters who deserve to be in Smash.

-----

Tsubasa Oribe

Chance: 0%
A side character from a not so well received crossover game. In terms of Shin Megami Tensei reps she has competition with characters from the main series games as well as Persona. In terms of Fire Emblem reps she has competition with characters like Celica, Fjorm, and Edelgard (not to mention Sakurai has even acknowledged that we have a lot of FE reps already). Aside from all of this, she isn’t even the main protagonist of her game so she has yet another giant hurdle to jump over if she ever wants to be playable.

Want: 0%
There are a ton of better FE reps out there as well as SMT/Persona reps. They deserve to be in Smash over this obscure spinoff character.

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Opossum]

PAPYRUS TIME?! OKAY!

CHANCE: 0%
SADLY SMASH'S STANDARDS ARE TOO HIGH. EVEN IF UNDERTALE GOT A CHARACTER, FRISK OR SANS WOULD LIKELY BE CHOSEN FIRST.

WANT: 100%
HE MEETS ALL OF MY STANDARDS. PAPYRUS IS MY FAVORITE UNDERTALE CHARACTER. HE'S HILARIOUSLY BOISTEROUS BUT HAS A CHILDISH NAÏVETÉ THAT MAKES HIM ENDEARING. BONE ATTACKS, TRICKS AND TRAPS, SPAGHETTI...THERE IS A LOT HE CAN BRING.


MERRIC X5

 

[ProfPeanut]

In my defense, it's not my fault certain other meme-happy members wanted to have Sans rated without Papyrus, and it's not as if I was still voting for this after E3. Honestly.

Papyrus

Chance: 1%
I won't focus on whether Undertale even has a chance to get a character; it's safe to assume that the chances are too low for any indie to squeeze in right now. Rather, I'd like to focus on just who would be the most likely choice, in a universe where that somehow happens - and it is in my professional judgement that Papyrus is a hundred times more likely to get into Smash than Sans is.

Sans

Chance: 0.01%
Sans is a uniquely unlikely case. He has all the usual drawbacks of any third-party who isn't super-iconic: not as big of a name as Sonic or Cloud, not as integral to his genre or history like Ryu or Crash, and not close enough to Nintendo to have any favors lined up, like Layton or Shovel Knight might. But that's already tibia-xpected from a third-party candidate.

What Sans has that most others don't is a ridiculous wave of popularity, being the exact kind of character that most kids would fall for. Two years after Undertale's release, the game still remains alive on the internet despite having no real updates besides the occasional port, and it doesn't even need those ports to survive. Popularity like that is not something to be overlooked - if you had a list of characters that'd make bigger waves than Sans, you'd find it depressingly short, and we already know that Sakurai is dead set on raising the spectacle level of these games. People would kill to see Sans fight.

But Sans could have everything going for him in another universe - Nintendo's support, absolute relevance, present-day popularity - in which case, almost everyone here would be giving him +50% scores. But I'd still give him less than a 1% chance, because Sans lacks a vital component that we've taken for granted on everybody else but Sora: the approval of his owner.

As you might know, Undertale was mostly made by an annoying dog named Toby Fox. Now, Toby Fox has a strange rule, despite being the sole creator and owner of one of the most influential video games of the decade: he will not, under any circumstance, recognize or reveal any spoiler that he put into his own game (or at least, spoilers that you can't prove are spoilers without additional context). Observe: in 2016, he opened an ask blog in celebration of his game's anniversary, promising that Undertale characters would answer the best questions submitted.

He proceeded to spend the whole day making everyone confront the question of what Papyrus' favorite food was.

People will tell you that the best way to play Undertale is with as few clues as to what will happen as possible, impossible as that might be these days. And yet, it's the same dog-gone presentation that Toby Fox has stuck with up to today, prevalent in both trailers for the Undertale ports and his present-day interactions with the internet . But without any spoilers whatsoever, Sans is just a bag of layabout lazybones that likes to crack bad skeleton puns, a side character with little other substance to him. That Sans would be an almost disappointing inclusion by himself because the character that people actually like is what's beneath the surface of Undertale's presentation.

One Switch port later, Toby Fox's stance on being as doggedly coy about his own game's contents has not changed in the slightest.

Also it's still about the second most-downloaded game on the Switch eShop, despite being three years old and having a cheaper, more accessible PC version. Take from that what you will.

So back to Papyrus: why him, when he's not the main character, nor as lucratively popular as Sans? Again, because of Toby Fox. Sakurai has stated before that third-party inclusions are a two-way street; not only does he have to want it, but the third party also has to want it once they're offered. And since playability in Smash is about as big of a spotlight as a character can have, then you'd have to consider how Toby Fox would react to any of Undertale's character having that kind of spotlight.

The apparently-sensible choices would be seem to be either the Fallen Human or Sans. But the Fallen Human's too open to interpretation to have Smash define a mindset for them, certainly not any that Toby Fox would be happy to allow unless some really powerful Sakurai magic happened. Sans isn't worth the effort to explain again - this just isn't the same situation as Bartz/Terra and Cloud. And any of the other characters have either too many mechanics spoilers of their own to hide and/or show up too late to be considered as good representations of Undertale.

In comparison, Papyrus is not only one of the few major characters consistently shown in the trailers, but he's also the one of the fewer ones whose personality is also shown up-front. He shows up early enough to be a big part of Undertale's experience, no matter what route you take. His mechanics are light enough that you could easily interpret them into a moveset, with his one spoiler being practically redundant in the context of Smash, making it almost unnecessary to actually implement. Perhaps people gravitate to Sans more, but how many actually know who Sans is without knowing Papyrus?

Considering all these factors, it's my belief that because of his natural fit as a Smash representative and because of how Toby Fox handles his own characters that Papyrus is undoubtedly the coolest most likely Undertale character to ever become a playable Smash character. Now, if only we lived in the timeline where an Undertale character was likely in the first place...

Want: 250%
It is a little known fact that Papyrus is the greatest. Therefore, any inclusion of him would appeal to as many of Undertale's genuine fans as a Sans AT/boss inclusion would, without sacrificing any of the game's larger spoilers. Still, I am more confident that Undertale's first appearance, if ever, would not be through a character.


Tsubasa Oribe

Chance: 0.1%
Sadly, I don't have a skele-ton to talk about here. She's from a spinoff crossover where the other side doesn't even have a character yet, and heads would roll if she was picked before they are. Sakurai would not hesitate to go straight for the source instead of settling with the easier option here.

Want: Abstain
SMT and Persona are representation-worthy franchises on their own. Still, that's not to say this spinoff doesn't have its merits.


Nominations
Quote x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

The great hero Papyrus

Chance: 0%
Even if Undertale had released on Switch by 2015 (which would have been difficult considering Switch hadn’t released on Switch by 2015, heh), he’d still have no chance. The main character would likely be picked (though apparently Toby Fox doesn’t want them to be in a violent game like Smash). If not, then probably Sans due to memes, but that doesn’t make sense to me.

Want: 75%
He doesn’t fit what a third party should be at all, but I would be so happy if he got in. Spaghetti and Bonetrousle (or however it’s spelled) are all I need.

The chick from Tokyo Mirage Sessions

Chance: 0.5%
I own the game and I had to look her up. Though, to be fair, I only beat the prologue before getting distracted by Uncharted 4. Anyway, Aoi Itsuki (the main protagonist) would get in before her. Gave her a non-Zero because maybe waifus are better mascots for games than protagonists now?

Want: 10%
She’d probably have a cool moveset. Would rather have Caeda/Sheeda though.

Nominations: Donbe and HikariX5
Having gotten the Chorus Kids out of harm’s way, I will try the biggest gambit yet: to save a character with no chance and only 44 noms (would appreciate help)

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Nominations: Donbe and HikariX5

You think so? Eh... I'd say everything that is currently at 70 nominations and higher are our most likely candidates to get into RTC. I personally would want to get as many of these as possible rather than go for ideas that have less than 50 noms at this point, but if you want to go for it, then do so. I'd love to get Steve?, Earthworm Jim, Joker, Quote, 9-Volt, and all of the nominations around that area past the purge limit than focus nominations towards Donbe and Hikari, which you even state has no chance.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain on everything

Daroach x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

You think so? Eh... I'd say everything that is currently at 70 nominations and higher are our most likely candidates to get into RTC. I personally would want to get as many of these as possible rather than go for ideas that have less than 50 noms at this point, but if you want to go for it, then do so. I'd love to get Steve?, Earthworm Jim, Joker, Quote, 9-Volt, and all of the nominations around that area past the purge limit than focus nominations towards Donbe and Hikari, which you even state has no chance.

Numbers-wise, we’re exactly 14 days from the purge. That’s 70 noms, which is enough to get Donbe & Hikari safe. Of course, help is still appreciated.

I would nominate Earthworm Jim, Joker, Quote or 9-Volt, but it seems that people have them on lock and will make it without my input. If push comes to shove I will help out though.

And yeah, Donbe & Hikari have no chance, but neither do Earthworm Jim nor Joker (and after Grinch leak, everyone really). It’s mostly to gauge want, and also rate for DLC.

 

[warpenguin55]

Papyrus:
Chance: 0%
Sans is the only Undertale character that would be considered. Seeing as how Sans won't be getting in, Papyrus has less than 0%
Want: 0%
Not an Undertale fan. I don't think it belongs in smash

Tsubasa:
Chance 0%
Pretty sure Joker or Celica would get in first. Yes I know Persona and SMT aren't the same thing.
Want: 0%
I'd rather have Joker or Celica instead.

Noms:
Silvally x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Papyrus:

So... I actually have something worthwhile to add to this conversation: Some DATA~~

So I work in Japan and one of the first things I did with my class of middle schoolers this year was to ask them their favorite anime, western cartoon, and video game characters on a questionnaire to get to know them better. This school is in Nagoya, the third-most-populated city in Japan. Sample size: 741 students.

Favorite Game characters:
Pikachu (or another Pokemon) (153 votes)
Mario (125 votes)
Inkling (or anyone from Splatoon) (117 votes)
Kirby (or anyone from Kirby) (116 votes)
Sans (or anyone from Undertale) (109 votes)
Monster Hunter (70 votes)
Princess Peach (24 votes)
Sonic (6 votes)
Link (or anyone from Zelda, but only Link got mentioned) (5 votes)
Luigi (4 votes)
Captain Falcon (1 vote, the best kid)
and buncha of other single-vote non-nintendo characters

I was personally floored at the number of kids who not only knew what Undertale was, but liked it enough to list a character from it as their favorite. (I was also shocked at how few kids liked Link... or even knew what Zelda no Densetsu was...) A lot of the boys asked if they could list Call of Duty or Fortnite as their favorite, but I told them they had to choose a -character-, just in the interest of being open about the methodology for obtaining this data.

So, while Sans is clearly the most popular character from Undertale (most non-Sans votes from Undertale were for Chara/Frisk, actually), it has a surprisingly huge following if this data is any indication. It's not the most scientific polling method, so feel free to take it with a grain of salt, but I think it's just plain bad faith to call Undertale's popularity a meme and on the same level of trolling as Goku or Shrek... (I mean, if you hate all Indies, fine, but at least get your tiers of unsuitableness in order!)

Chance: 1%
That said, no. Papyrus most certainly isn't getting in. If any Undertale character was getting in, it'd be Sans. And while I think Undertale has just as much chance of getting in as Shovel Knight, Shantae, and Quote, I don't think Indies have great chances at being playable fighters (at this point).

Want: 2%
I like Undertale and I'd be fine if it got in, but my preferred Indie-rep is Shantae.


Tsubasa Oribe:

Chance: 3%
Tokyo Mirage Sessions was one of the only JRPG exclusives for the WiiU, which is pretty interesting historically. It's also a Shin Megami Tensei and Fire Emblem crossover of sorts, which is also interesting. Tsubasa is basically a Persona character whose Persona is Caeda from Fire Emblem and Tsubasa gets to wear her armor and ride her pegasus into battle by summoning up Caeda's powers through song. J-Pop song, but oh well. Being a mounted character is pretty interesting. Being a lance-wielder with some magic options is interesting. Being a partial Shin Megami Tensei rep is interesting. Being the sole WiiU-exclusive rep among Smash's cast would be pretty interesting. She is just a very interesting pick in general. I'm not really thinking that any of those interesting points are actually enough to get her genuinely considered for Smash, though.

Want: 70%
I want a mounted character and a lance-user so bad, you guys... Just... just let me have one, Sakurai...
(Tsubasa most definitely isn't my first pick for lancers OR mounted characters, but she's the highest on my wanted list with both of these things!)

NOMS: Costume DLC

 

[RealPokeFan11]

A Real Magic Skeleton
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
I'm just gonna quote my sans post because everything I said applies here, too.


The other one
Chance: 0%
Not only is she a Fire Emblem character, she's a Fire Emblem SPIN-OFF character! She'll be lucky if she shows up as a trophy.
Want: 0%
I've said it before, but I guess I'll say it again. We don't need any more FE characters. We have enough.

FE newcomer prediction: 0%
FE boss prediction: 10%
Noms: Chorus Kids x5

sans
Chance: 0%
And here's why giving him anything higher than a zero is wrong:
(But first, here's some High Quality music.)
1. Undertale's Switch port hasn't even released yet
Which already puts him at the bottom of the "Switch port -> Smash Bros." list, and puts him near the top of the "Too recent" list.
2. No history with Nintendo (or in general)
An upcoming Switch port doesn't really count as "history", especially when Undertale was released on the PC, PS4, and the Vita first. And the game itself isn't even three years old.
3. He isn't even the protagonist of his own game
We usually get those first.
4. He's an indie character
I shouldn't have to elaborate on this one.
Anyway, there's probably more reasons I'm not thinking of, but I think I've made my point. He's not happening. Ever.
Want: 0%
Undertale characters don't deserve to be in Smash. I'll just leave it at that.

Tom Nook prediction: 27%
Noms: Steve x5

I found some even MORE High quality music for Sans and Papyrus.

 

[Deleted member]

Daily "Abstaining on both" post.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[skylanders fan]

abstaining

nominating chorus kids x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

MERRIC X5

DO WE REALLY NEED THIS AT THIS POINT?

Merric x5

Do we really need this at this point?

 

[BluePikmin11]

Not really going to rate today, but man, I vastly prefer that Papyrus get in over Sans. Undertale is my #1 favorite game of all time, and the character is such a bundle of joy. If he got in the base game somehow, I would be pretty satisfied with Ultimate.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Not really going to rate today, but man, I vastly prefer that Papyrus get in over Sans. Undertale is my #1 favorite game of all time, and the character is such a bundle of joy. If he got in the base game somehow, I would be pretty satisfied with Ultimate.

I mean, you could still nominate even if you abstain. Nominations are getting critical with October wrapping up real quick, and the nomination purge is happening a week into November.

 

[Opossum]

DO WE REALLY NEED THIS AT THIS POINT?



Do we really need this at this point?

Why not? I want Merric to remain on top.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I don't plan to nominate anymore. After Hanafuda, I am pretty much done with nominations. I will definitely come back to nominate if DLC comes though.

 

[ProfPeanut]

I found some even MORE High quality music for Sans and Papyrus.

* thanks, bud. think you misspelled the url though.

EDIT: * you're right, this other one is what you really meant.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Papyrus
Chance: 2.5% (DLC)
He's probably the likeliest character from Undertale IMO, considering he isn't a major spoiler compared to the other two characters talked about.
While being a western third-party character and an indie one at that keeps him low, Undertale is still massively popular in Japan. It's way more popular than Shovel Knight, Shantae and probably even Cave Story, so if we actually were to get a indie game represented, Undertale could be one of the highest priorities. (I don't think we can really consider Minecraft indie anymore)

Want: 90%
He is my prefered brother out of the two and he'd make way more sense balace wise. All the wacky stuff he does troughout the game would also make for a way more interesting and fun moveset than what Sans or the human could bring to the table. The reactions that would follow him would probably not be as earth shaking compared to if his brother got in however, although you never know with the internet.

What is lovelife doing in my FE?
Chance: 0.1%
I guess she counts as a FE character?... Which could mean Sakurai would likely not have chosen her for the project plan after being begged to put in Corrin.
Also TMS being a late Wii U title means she isn't relevant anymore despite that game being only two years old. With how little space is left for newcomers she's not making it into the base game. Untill a TMS Switch happens in the future she probably doesn't have a shot at DLC either.

Want: 0%
Remeber how I said 2hu games weren't for me a few days ago? Well I'm more likely to dive into that franchise than to ever play Tsubasa's game. Not only is it part FE, it's also idol**** on top of that. This game was supposed to be SmT X FE apparently? Well even if I was both an FE and SmT this would've been a major kick in the nuts. I'm definitely not the only one who feels this way from what I've seen.

The prince x5

 

[Pacack]

I don't plan to nominate anymore. After Hanafuda, I am pretty much done with nominations. I will definitely come back to nominate if DLC comes though.

Would you be willing to help me nominate the historical character concept, then? I think that the two of us have probably been the most adamant about the idea.


Papyrus
Chance: 0%
Even if an Undertale character were to happen for some reason, it would be Sans.

Want: Abstain
I've never played Undertale.

Tsubasa Oribe
Chance: 0%
I barely even feel the need to explain. A Fire Emblem character from a poorly-received spinoff? Not likely in the slightest.

Want: 0%
I'd rather have literally any other non-spinoff Fire Emblem character.

Nominations: Concept: Historical Character x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I don't plan to nominate anymore.

Aw, man... that's too bad. Helping out with purge saving would be appreciated, but I understand why you wouldn't now.

Why not? I want Merric to remain on top.

Y O U W I N. Merric'll be on top, you'll be 25 noms ahead of second place by the end of the day.

 

[Smasher 101]

As a note: while as of now I'm somewhat leaning towards the Grinch leak being true, I'm not at all certain on it (although I'm hoping it's real to be honest), so for the time being I'm going to try to ignore it for this thread. Although there's not much hope for either of these either way:

Papyrus and Tsubasa Oribe

Chance (both): 0.5%

For Papyrus: While Undertale is popular, it's still a pretty new third party, and its Nintendo debut came far too late to impact the base roster. DLC is definitely more possible, although Papyrus isn't the only option anyway so an Undertale character isn't guaranteed to be him.

For Tsubasa: 0.5% might actually be generous here. She's a character from a spin off game that's not as talked about as others, she has virtually no support base, and from what I can tell she's not even the main character of her game! Safe to say she isn't happening.

Want (both): 0%

For Papyrus: I don't hate Undertale, in fact I plan on playing the game some time in the near future. I simply think it's too soon for the franchise to be in Smash when it's a young indie that just got ported to the Switch. If anything I would rather it wait a little while and then possibly come in as DLC.

For Tsubasa: This one I'm just flat out not interested in the character or her game. There are plenty of better choices in my opinion.

Nominations: Saki x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I think we can nominate without needing to rate right? It has been a long while.

Concept: Historical Character x5

 

[War Anvil]

NYEH HEH HEH!
Base Chance: Abstain
DLC Chance: 1%
Want: 10%
I can't say I'd feel like giving this bony boy a chance rating. Even if I am a bit of an Undertale stan, I'm pretty much forced to say no. If any Undertale character would deserve a chance in Smash, it's either Frisk/the human child, Sans, or even Undyne.

TSUBASA "ファイアーエムブレム" ORIBE
Base Chance: 0%
DLC Chance: 50%
Want: 10%
An FE-related character with a lance would be CRAZY to see compared to "N" million of different swordfighters. Then again, I'm not inclined to buy the inclusion of further FE characters now that Chrom, the last truly deserving swordsman, snuck in (hector pls). Ah well, good luck next time, Tsubasa...

Nominate Earthworm Jim x5.

 

[Opossum]

Actually gonna tackle Tsubasa as well, at least in Want.

Want: 0%
Her getting in would be an absolute death knell for normal Caeda. And normal Caeda is superior in literally every way.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

* thanks, bud. think you misspelled the url though.

EDIT: * you're right, this other one is what you really meant.

I think you misspelled the URL again Here, I fixed it for you

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

So is this the start of when there is a guaranteed new day at 5 PM EST? I wouldn't mind that actually...

By this I mean can we start rating the next day at 5 PM? We are enterring the final stretch of RTC before the game's release.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Papyrus:

Chance - 0%

Undertale Switch is way too recent ther eis no way he is getting in. And yea I doubt he did great on the ballot either.

Want - Abstain

Never played Undertale so I don't want to judge harshly on this one.

Astaining from Tsubaba.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5