Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheCJBrine]

Grass Birb:

Chance: 50% - Due to rumors of Incineroar I'm not so sure, plus it's possible we may not get a new Pokemon. However, if we do get a new Pokemon, I expect either Incineroar, Decidueye, or Rowlet.

Want: 90% - Rowlet was my starter in Moon and Ultra Moon, and while I've come to like Incineroar's design, I also really like Rowlet. Of course, if we were to get only one new Pokemon, I'd want Gengar first.

Nominations:

Gengar x4
Steve? x1

 

[GoodGrief741]

Rowlet

Chance: 20%
I remember when starters were announced. Everyone went crazy for this little thing (I’m more of a Litten kind of guy myself). It appears that that popularity hasn’t lasted, too. So he certainly has a good chance. I don’t give credence to the common rumors or anything, so objectively speaking I think he’s one of the likeliest candidates for a Pokémon rep. Then again, I don’t think we will get one.

Want: 70%
Would rather not get a Pokémon newcomer this time around, but if we have to, I hope it’s one with lasting popularity. Rowlet seems to fit the bill. Plus, I’m tired of people saying we can only get final stage starters now, there are many Pokémon that aren’t and should and could get in Smash anyways. Plus you can’t deny a round birdie would certainly be unique.

Nominations: Saki AmamiyaX5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Rowlet:

Chance - 5%

Yes he is heavily marketed, yes he is the most popular Alola starter....

But he doesn't feel like a character who would appear in Smash Bros at all plus there is plenty of other Pokemon which are way more likely.

Want - 0%

Rowlet is cute and all but there is much better choices out there in my personal opinion. Come on Lycanroc.... also he would fit more as a Pokeball mon.

Prediction for deconfirmed characters becoming DLC - 15%

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain:

Joker x3
Blog Theory x 2

 

[War Anvil]

ROWLET
Chance: 0%
Want: 10%
Even though Rowlet is incredibly popular in Japan, I'd prefer Decidueye (Which is less likely than Incineroar anyway).

PREDICTABO!
Deconfirmed characters as DLC fighters: 9.9%

Nominate Earthworm Jim x4, Ninten x1.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

'Yeah, we only have fully evolved Pokemon like Jigglypuff and Pichu.

Yeah, I forgot to mention them. There are some exceptions like Pikachu being the main mascot of the franchise and Jigglypuff as a joke character, but Pichu has shown to be a pretty terrible and pointless character in Melee. (TBH he never should've been added in the first place) It would just be a missed opportunity for Decidueye to get shafted for his pre evolved form which has much less power and moveset potential.

 

[letsgetsmashing]

Rowlet

Chance: 5%- When Smash Ultimate speculation first started he was actually a popular pick for a new Pokemon rep. But since then, he's basically been forgotten as Pokemon speculation has evolved. The talk quickly went from him to Decidueye for sure, then from Decidueye for sure to Incineroar for sure, and now we might not even get a Pokemon rep. If we do, I think Decidueye and Incineroar both have better chances. IMO their designs are cooler and are more of what Sakurai looks for in a Pokemon. I really don't believe a Pokemon rep will make it in this time around though. We know the ballot is being used to pick newcomers, and I'm not saying that deconfirms all characters who didn't do well in the ballot, but so far K. Rool and Ridley are our only new characters who likely were "ballot picks." Let me explain. Inkling was getting in no matter what, the ballot didn't effect that. Isabelle wasn't that popular inside the Smash community, and likely got in because of her popularity in the Animal Crossing community and the fact the series only had one rep. And Simon Belmont, while decently popular, likely was outvoted on the ballot by Bomberman, another Konami rep. I'm guessing with Snake coming back Sakurai felt the need to include another Konami character and he thought Simon fit the bill better I guess. So with all that in mind, I really don't see Rowlet happening over other popular ballot picks like Geno, Dixie Kong, Banjo and Kazooie, Bandana Dee, Isaac, Chorus Kids, Rayman, Captain Toad, etc.

Want: 0%- Nothing against the little dude, but in my eyes there's nothing that good about him joining Smash. I like Decidueye better, and would take a number of other Pokemon over him (Blaziken, Sceptile, Meowth...). Plus, I really don't want another Pokemon rep with how tight the roster is.

 

[aarchak]

Rowlet
Chance: 0%
I'm sorry Rowlet, but Decidueye is getting in long before you do. He's just more popular and iconic, and the last time a starter in its first stage of evolution was popular enough was Oshawott, and it isn't nearly that popular. I don't see him getting in over Decidueye any day.
Want: 0%
I think I would rather have the final evolution of a starter than its base form. That's just my personal preference, nothing against Rowlet personally.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Rowlet

Chance - 0% - Thus far, we have had only 3 solo Pokemon who aren't fully evolved: Pikachu, due to being the mascot, Pichu, due to being able to be cloned off of Pikachu, and Jigglypuff, due to being able to borrow heavily from Kirby. Final evolutions are typically more famous than their predecessors. In addition, final evolutions typically have better proportions to make them a fighter. While Rowlet is popular, I do not think it is enough to overcome his problems.

Want - 10% - I would be much happier with the Final Evolution. He can the same things he can plus more.


Nominations

Reimu Hakurei X5

 

[Cabbagehead]

Rowlet
Chance: 25%
Want: 40%

Upon the reveal of the Alolan starters, Rowlet was above and beyond the favorite of the masses. And, if I remember correctly, a recent Japanese magazine poll still had him pegged as the most popular Alolan Pokemon (now factoring in the rest of the seventh generation). So, as far as popularity goes, Rowlet is pretty significant, to say the least. However, that is about all there is in Rowlet's favor.

On the other side of the coin is Rowlet's direct competition. The seventh generation is made up of quite a few marketable Pokemon who could easily make it in over Rowlet, including Rowlet's cooler Ghost-type evolution, Decidueye. Is Rowlet's popularity really enough to usurp the role of playable Pokemon from any number of others being pushed via marketing by TPC? Honestly, I don't believe so.

Rowlet isn't a Pokemon that I am a huge fan of (my starter was Popplio), but that isn't to say that I hate the little guy. The Pokemon series is made up of legions of uniquely designed creatures, so much so that even the mundane grass owl starter is pretty cool, and could certainly serve to be its own unique newcomer in Smash. That being said, I wouldn't be upset (or even indifferent) about Rowlet. I'd just get more excitement out of some of the more "off the wall" picks, such as an Ultra Beast.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Rowlet
Chance: 25%
Want: 40%

Upon the reveal of the Alolan starters, Rowlet was above and beyond the favorite of the masses. And, if I remember correctly, a recent Japanese magazine poll still had him pegged as the most popular Alolan Pokemon (now factoring in the rest of the seventh generation). So, as far as popularity goes, Rowlet is pretty significant, to say the least. However, that is about all there is in Rowlet's favor.

On the other side of the coin is Rowlet's direct competition. The seventh generation is made up of quite a few marketable Pokemon who could easily make it in over Rowlet, including Rowlet's cooler Ghost-type evolution, Decidueye. Is Rowlet's popularity really enough to usurp the role of playable Pokemon from any number of others being pushed via marketing by TPC? Honestly, I don't believe so.

Rowlet isn't a Pokemon that I am a huge fan of (my starter was Popplio), but that isn't to say that I hate the little guy. The Pokemon series is made up of legions of uniquely designed creatures, so much so that even the mundane grass owl starter is pretty cool, and could certainly serve to be its own unique newcomer in Smash. That being said, I wouldn't be upset (or even indifferent) about Rowlet. I'd just get more excitement out of some of the more "off the wall" picks, such as an Ultra Beast.

I like Rowlet and it's one of my favorite grass starters, but it just doesn't make sense to add it over Decidueye. And I'm more of a Litten person myself. Also there's so many more options from Alola. (Especially a certain creature from another dimension that I've been nominating...)

 

[GoodGrief741]

I like Rowlet and it's one of my favorite grass starters, but it just doesn't make sense to add it over Decidueye. And I'm more of a Litten person myself. Also there's so many more options from Alola. (Especially a certain creature from another dimension that I've been nominating...)

Why doesn’t it make sense to add it over Decidueye?

 

[FancySmash]

Rowlet

Chance: 5%
It seems that if we do get a Pokémon rep this time around, it's gonna be Incineroar. However, one shouldn't underestimate Rowlet's popularity. Being the first stage of what is arguably the most popular starter evolution this time around is definitely a plus, and being featured in the anime also helps (it seems that's how every Pokémon in Smash gets picked, eh?). However, like a broken record, I must once again say that space is incredibly limited, and time to announce fighters diminishes by the day.

Want: 5%
Let me be clear when I say this, I'd actually prefer that we don't get a Pokémon rep this time. However, if we do have to have one, I'd prefer Rowlet's final form. That said, I'd still prefer Rowlet to Incineroar (sorry Incineroar fans, but Incineroar doesn't do much for me). So, I guess the math looks something like...
100% - Not wanting a Pokémon rep this game (90%) - preferring the evolved form of Rowlet (5%) = 5%
That... makes sense. Right?

 

[Artix]

Rowlet

Chance: 5%
I don't think we're getting a Gen 7 Pokemon in the base roster due to limited roster slot. But if we are getting one, it's definitely going to be Incineroar or Rowlet's final stage, Decidueye. But still, I can't believe that Rowlet is that popular, the only way I can see him getting in is if they have Incineroar instead of Decidueye. If that's the case, then he might get in as one of the Pokemon in the Pokeball.

Want: 90%
I absolutely loved the Rowlet line in Sun and Moon. Hell, it's even my starter when I first played Pokemon Moon and he's been a great asset on my team. I wouldn't mind if either Rowlet or it's final form, Decidueye made it in.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Abstain

Nominations:

Merric x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Rowlet

Chance: 1%

Gonna throw it out there that I think a Gen VII Pokémon is all but guaranteed, and I personally expect it to be the next reveal. That said, I also expect it to be Incineroar. Rowlet does have some popularity going for it, but I don't know how much that would matter in the case of picking the new 'mon. I feel like some of the fully evolved ones would have been more likely to catch Sakurai's eye.

Want: 60%

Rowlet was my starter of choice, but I'd want it to join in fully evolved, as I think that's where it has the most fighting potential. Still...its base form is pretty adorable.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna end the day now, if ya are still working on a post you got till 1 am edt.

For this concept, I am going to say interpret as a character deconfirmed directly (background, at, pokeball) gets the upgrade.

 

[Sari]

Disconfirmed Character DLC

Chance: 5%
Lucas and Mewtwo were essentially deconfirmed in SSB4 by being trophies yet they ended up being DLC so this idea isn’t too far-fetched. Unfortunately that was mainly because they were Smash vets and already had movesets to work with. Since we have all of the vets I can’t see Sakurai going out of his way to create a new moveset for a character that is already deconfirmed. If he wanted that character to be playable he wouldn't have added them to the game as they are.

Want: 100%
Ashley, Waluigi, and Bomberman were some of my most wanted characters. Any opportunity to get them to playable status is fine by me.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[FancySmash]

DLC Deconfirmed Fighters

Chance - 30%
I don't think AT's or PKBalls are gonna get the upgrade. However, I can see background characters getting an upgrade, thanks to Toon Link. So far, the only one I can think of is Captain Toad, but I'm sure there are others I'm missing from other stages. Background characters are easy to remove, as unless they're something like a stage boss or hazard, they don't effect game play. AT's and PKBalls are another story, as they directly effect the tide of battle.

Want - 75%
You know what? Why not. If we can get characters that are uber wanted, like Isaac, Dixie Kong, Skull Kid, Bandana Dee, and Geno if they aren't available base roster, I have no problem with bringing in some of the deconfirmed fighters.

Edit: Aside from Captain Toad, I just remembered Tails in Green Hill's background. I do believe he'd have a a decent shot at a Semi-clone.

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Chance: 25%
I mean, popularity and timing are important. Rowlett has both. What he doesn't have is being Decidueye, by which I mean: Most people who play fighting games want characters who are powerful and cool. And while Pokemon has a big mix of cute and cool, Smash has a big reliance on more attack-oriented characters than charm-oriented characters. Yes, Kirby, Toon Link, Isabelle, and Jigglypuff exist, but you'll find no shortage of people saying half or more of those fighters already feel out of place. With Pokemon, a series that gives almost all of its characters a 'cute' form and a 'fighting' form through their evolutions, there's no real reason to favor the form that isn't suited to fighting.

Unless, of course, Sakurai feels like it. And he might. So... 25% chance!

Want: 80%
Man, I originally kneejerked against Rowlett for Smash, since I love Decidueye's design so much. But honestly? I've always liked Rowlett and I can't say I'd be THAT unhappy at him getting in. I think I prefer him to Incineroar, though Lycanroc and Decidueye are well above both.

(Though given my choice, I'd axe all of the non-final form Pokemon except Pikachu...)

Noms: DLC Costumes x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Disconfirmed Character as DLC

Chance: 1%
Never happened before, and unlikely to happen ever. Any thought to the contrary is probably denial.

When Sakurai picks these characters for their particular roles in any particular iteration of Smash Bros, that's simply where he sees them fitting in the game, and where he prioritizes them. To make them a DLC, you would have to change Sakurai's mind right in the middle/end of development, to the point that he steers all the resources needed for a character away from any yet-to-be-deconfirmed candidates to a character he'd already made up his mind about.

All the noise in the ballot got K. Rool into Ultimate, certainly, but it couldn't get him into Smash 4. While Ultimate has the potential to have a more open-ended DLC schedule, there'll be more than enough candidates for Sakurai to pick from to augment the roster.

Want: 0%
Seeing as no one I really wanted has yet to be disconfirmed, I see no reason to push behind this. All the relentless crying and stubborn denial over Waluigi, despite a clear deconfirmation, has not made this idea any more attractive either.


Prediction:
Amaterasu: 6%

Nominations:
Sans (boss) x5

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Hmm... have we seen Robin's final smash yet? I feel like if it still involves Chrom, there might be more to talk about here. (Or it's new and involves, say... Grima... it would certainly lend credulity to the Heroes/Villains theme theory)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Rowlet pre-Disconfirmed character DLC

No More Stages x253
Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x240
Linkle x227
Concept: Metroidvania-like Adventure Mode x222
Louie x200
Rick/Coo/Kine x197
DeMille x193

200 - 151

Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Papyrus x180
Reimu Hakurei x180
Dovahkiin x170
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x132
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Edelgard x130
2B x126
Kyo Kusanagi x125
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Zeraora (Pokemon) x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x111
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
Black Knight as a boss character x110
Daroach x105
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x84
Sans as a boss character x82
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x78
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
9-Volt x68
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
The Prince (Katamari) x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Concept: Historical Character x60
Concept: Cross series Echoes x60
Slime x58
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
Rhythm Girl x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Earthworm Jim x49
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
[Rerate] Steve? x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Merric (Fire Emblem) x40
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Stage: Melemele Island x35
Saki Amamiya x32
Concept: DLC character pass x30
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x30
Box Theory x29
Quote x28
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25
Joker (Persona) x25
[Rerate] Sora x25

Under 25

Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x20
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Sub-Zero x17
[Rerate] Gengar x16
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
Kat & Ana x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
Blog Theory x13
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x10
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x9
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
[Rerate] Porky Minch x7
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Concept: Danganronpa music x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Rhythm Girl dances past 50 nominations.

Joker and Sora unlock 25 noms (and hearts).

Hmm... have we seen Robin's final smash yet? I feel like if it still involves Chrom, there might be more to talk about here. (Or it's new and involves, say... Grima... it would certainly lend credulity to the Heroes/Villains theme theory)

We don’t know Robin’s Final Smash yet. It’s likely that it wasn’t shown to avoid spoiling Chrom being playable.

 

[Bolshoi]

De-confirmed Characters as DLC

Chances: 75%
With Ridley and K. Rool confirmed, we're running out of unassigned characters for the community to rally behind. So unless Birdo sees a sudden spike in popularity, I think there's a high liklihoood of future DLC drawing from this pool. Reggie even said that Sakurai would be "made aware of the groundswell of support for Waluigi," so someone is listening.

Want: 100%
There are a few ATs and at least one background character I would love to have playable. So this is a hard yes from me.

 

[GoodGrief741]

A couple of Assist Trophies and Captain Toad as DLC

Chance: 50%
In all seriousness, there’s no reason why and no reason why not. Just ‘it hasn’t happened before’ (in the one time we had DLC characters, where half were veterans, half were third parties, and one was a shameless plug).

There are four kinds of characters that can make it in as DLC.

The late comers, the ones that debuted between 2015 and 2018 and the ones that debut after the game. Here we have Spring Man, Rex & Pyra, probably a new Pokémon and Fire Emblem, and whatever happens in the future.

The third party bombardment. These are the ones that follow Smash 4’s criteria: third party characters are hype and sell good. Here you have your Banjos, your Soras, your Heihachis, Lloyds, professors and attorneys. Simple and clean.

There’s also whoever doesn’t make it. While I expect most of the big guys will make it, there’s probably one or two who might not. This means Isaac, Dixie, Geno, Dee, Skull Kid, et cetera. Maybe Chorus Kids if you’re generous. Easy picks for DLC, right? Especially if there is another ballot.

And then there’s the category of those that didn’t make it in.

Now, this post has two assumptions.

One: DLC runs for a long time. If we only get seven new characters and we’re done, then yeah, no, but if we get DLC for a couple of years, eventually they’re gonna start needing characters to make playable.

Two: the concept of the Ultimate game continues.

If so, I see no reason why Sakurai won’t want to satisfy fan demand, by turning a character that couldn’t become playable, playable. Many Assist Trophies are there as consolation prizes; if a character is available, Sakurai will put them in Smash in some capacity, even if not playable.

If disconfirmed characters can’t be DLC, you’re basically limiting yourself to characters that either didn’t exist when you were planning the game, or you didn’t have access to because they’re third party. I don’t see why Sakurai would limit himself in such a way.

Want: 100%
Let me make a list of characters that were disconfirmed that I’d give 100% want to.
Captain Toad
Lyn
Sukapon
Waluigi
Ashley
Krystal
Takamaru
Bomberman
Midna
Starfy
Knuckles
Ghirahim
Samurai Goroh
Sheriff
Eevee
Meowth
Kamek

Plus, my most wanted (Prince Sable) will probably be back as an Assist Trophy too. So really, the rating is actually 1800%

Nominations: Saki AmamiyaX5 (another likely disconfirmation. It’s almost like many Assist Trophies are worthy of being playable!)

 

[NintenRob]

Deconfirmed Characters as DLC
This is an odd thing to rate, when I do my ratings, I only talk about base game. While I think DLC is likely happening, I don't consider it a guarantee, with so many characters Sakurai may want to focus elsewhere. Another thing to think is what major characters aren't playable, I don't think top dogs will be deconfirmed in the sense they'll play another role. And what the original role will become. Background characters could just be removed when they're playable but assist trophies and stage hazards are more complicated. Still it would be nice, I haven't really lost anything special yet so my focus is elsewhere
Chance 5%
Want 40%

Nominate no more stages x5

 

[Klimax]

Chance: 0%
Denial is stronger than ever, people can't accept the deconfirmation of their character. They should stop torturing themselves, because I don't see Nintendo making a deconfirmed character playable. The only character with a real chance is Waluigi because the backlas was really huge. But even for him, that's impossible. And I'm a Waluigi supporter since Brawl.

Want: 0%
Listen there's MANY deconfirmed characters that I would like to see playable, like really. Waluigi was one of my top 5 most wanted before his deconfirmation. But now that he's not playable, I think that he shouldn't be playable in this game. It would create more wars between fanbases. Just imagine if Waluigi becomes playable when he was an AT while many popular characters are still not in the game AT ALL. People would be angry and I can understand that. If they add Waluigi, people would say "now Ashley, Bomberman, Krystal please" and others would say "Where's *insert really popular character still not in the game* ? He's deserving and didn't get deconfirmed unlike Waluigi !".

Some of the deconfirmed characters are favorites of mine but adding one of them would be a terrible idea.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Deconfirmed character DLC

Chance: ABSTAIN
It's really hard to tell. We have to factor in if Sakurai cares about the outcry over deconfirmations such as Waluigi, if this is truely Sakurai's last Smash Bros, if Sakurai will still take the fan demand approach for DLC ,if there will be another ballot and how much support there will still be for those deconfirmed characters.

Want: 25%
It would be neat, but at the moment there isn't anybody who I'm that sad about being deconfirmed. If someone gets deconfirmed, I can cross them out of the list of possible candidates for this game and won't have to think about them again. That way I'd honestly like for deconfirmed characters to stay deconfirmed, unless it's someone who I really really wanted.

The Prince x5

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Deconfirmed characters as DLC:
Chance: 10%
If they’re already from a Pokéball, stage hazard, Assist Trophy, final smash, or boss, it’s not happening. If they’re a background element or regular trophy, then I can see it happening as it’s easy to change a trophy name and they could just give the background element the alfonzo/DL Dedede treatment.

Want: TBD (abstain)
I honestly can’t say for sure as we don’t know who’s in and who’s not. For the ones I’d deem impossible I’d love Bomberman, and for the ones I deem possible I’d love Captain Toad. That being said, depending on who’s playable, my want score may be higher or lower. If Bandana Dee were to become a regular trophy for example I’d easily put it at a 100% score, but we don’t know who’s what.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

DISCONFIRMED CHARACTERS AS DLC
Chance: 0%
Want: 75%

Though this has no chance of happening, it would be pretty awesome. The problem is that the assist trophy, boss, Pokeball, etc. would have to be removed from the game. (Basically becoming wasted development time.) If this did happen though, my disconfirmed characters (Shovel Knight and Mimikyu) can finally enter the battle.

(Also the Waluigi fans who were constantly whining and crying over him not being playable get what they want. Crying doesn't get you what you want, so it's kind of a bad life lesson (in a way) if he gets in. He would still be cool though and he's well deserved at this point.)

Nominations: Xurkitree x5

 

[Artix]

Deconfirmed Characters as DLC

Chance: 5%
That really depends on what you mean by deconfirmed characters. If it's about characters that were Assist Trophies, Pokeballs, etc., then I don't see that happening in this game, even as DLC. Characters that only appeared in stage background, however, they might have a chance. The keyword here being "might", that really depends whether background characters are deserving for the spot in DLC or not by Sakurai.

Want: 90%
I wouldn't mind any deconfirmed characters to be DLC, honestly. It would definitely make me happy since Ashley, Alucard and Zero are one of those characters that I wanted to be playable characters instead.

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Golden Icarus]

Deconfirmed character as DLC
Chance: 65%
I have a rather strong feeling that Waluigi is gonna be DLC. After the uproar that was Waluigi’s assist reveal, I could easily imagine the Smash team taking note, and starting the planning process for DLC.

And I don’t think it would be the craziest thing to have him either removed as an assist, or just kept in. He’s a weird enough character that I could probably buy him being in two places at once. And additionally, his assist trophy is so simple that they could probably replace its function with another character, ala Alfonzo. Such as Koopa, Dry Bones, Birdo, Dk Jr., maybe even Foreman Spike.

I also think it’s very likely that Captain Toad is added as DLC. He’s a super popular character, and kind of a rising star at Nintendo. And since we’ve already seen Toon Link removed from the background of a stage, I see no reason why Toad couldn’t do it.

Want 100%
I really want Toad. And I have quite a few friends that would flip **** if Waluigi were added. I also really like Meowth, Bomberman, Shovel Knight, and Alucard. I doubt any of those will happen though, sadly.

Noms: Erdrick x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

DLC Playable Assists

Chance: 10%
Want: 50%

Yet another fanrule that exists insofar as it hasn't yet been broken.

I don't really see the problem with it. An assist can easily be patched to have a 0% chance of showing up, and their current move can be used in the moveset. Or just allow the chance they could summon themselves - this is the game where eight Kings K. Rool can fight each other.

There are some good characters that have gotten the assist hammer that also have huge fanbases and would make good playables. For me, Midna is on top of that list, but I'd not say no to bringing the Mario Spin-off crew together with the WAA. Meowth would also be fun from the Pokémon side. Not to mention that Tails needs to get his tails out of the loop at GHZ finally.

However, Sakurai does consider assists as proper representation, and I do think a lot of them (even the more controversial ones) are better as assists. I even think some of the big popular names now would make better assists than playable. There's probably not much developmental pull to get them playable unless there's a huge fan push. I'm getting over Midna (A Twili Zelda echo would be really welcome though). Also, if we're talking background characters, I feel like they're much more obvious to put in first than someone who Sakurai has given an actual role in the game already (Tailstailstailstailstails).

Nom: Dovahkiin x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Disconfirmed Characters as DLC

Chance: 50%. Really a coin flip. A lot of the popular characters are disconfirmed already, like Wakuigi, Ashley, and Shovel Knight. If this game has a long DLC cycle and/or a ballot, it'll be inevitable. If we have a Smash 4 DLC Cycle, than maybe not.

Want: 40%. Some characters I like have been disconfirmed, including Arcade Rabbit, Scizor, and maybe Kamek. I doubt they would be chosen to make the playable leap though.

Nominations: Cross Series Echoes x5

 

[P.Kat]

Those who fell to the Shadow Realm

Chance 50%

As it turns out, we have good reason to believe that DLC could happen, but we're not sure how it could be implemented. Even though I'm far from knowing what going in Sakurai's head, I feel like he'd take DLC in a slightly different direction, but at the same time make it enjoyable for the fans and what better way than to reveal characters who are on the sidelines. To prevent things from getting too out of hand, Sakurai will probably make a poll for Assist Trophies, or choose who he wants to add as a newcomer personally. In the end, we can't for sure say "Disconfirmed DLC? This can't happen," only that it hasn't happen yet.

Want 100%

Some of my most wanted were made AT's (Lyn, Krystal, Ashley), so regardless of the chances of disconfirmed characters for DLC, I'd be glad if it happens.

Fjorm x5

 

[Ridrool64]

DLC Promotion Chance: 50%. I think the only reason why people don't see it happening is because no precedent was set since SSB4's DLC cycle was short, but I think there is a legitimate chance mostly out of sheer fan demand, but with various other factors into it as well. Honestly, it could go either way. I don't necessarily think it'll happen but there is potential in it.

Want: 100%. By all means, more for the roster is good. Nobody will ever get the right to complain about Assist Trophies or Poké Ball summons ever again, and nobody's dreams can be shattered ever again. The problem with AT's right now is that DLC has made them into nothing but disconfirmation machines [their old purpose, getting popular characters in the game by launch, has been obsoleted by DLC, and while not all of them can be fighters a good chunk of them could be like Alucard], making them a lot more disappointing than before. Notice how many people refuse to accept background disconfirmations because they're holding out hope; it's hard not to be disappointed when your favorite doesn't make the cut. This concept fixes that by simply making them into little tastes of the bigger picture. This doesn't even require me to want somebody who isn't going to be in, though by all means if it happens, I'll just push for Assist Trophies from now on since they could get the promotion.

Nominations: Unique Puzzle Game Rep Concept x Max (5 I think?). For elaboration, Dr. Mario doesn't count, being far too heavily based on Mario.

 

[aarchak]

Disconfirmed Character DLC

Chance: 60%
I think it depends on the character. Some were probably rejected early into development, because the dev team decided no at the pre-production stage, when they were figuring out what characters to even work on. These characters have a shot if the team goes and takes a second pass at them. I'm guessing characters like Waluigi and Lyn are in this spot, as their ATs didn't even change. Others were considered, and the dev team probably tried to make a moveset for them, but it didn't work out for any number of reasons. These characters have the lowest chance of making it in, and my guess is Bomberman is one of these characters. However, there is one exception to these reasons: time. The rest of the disconfirmed were ones who were cut because the team didn't have time to put them in, like how Bowser Jr. was almost cut for Smash 4. The characters who were cut for time have by far the highest chance of making it in. I'm actually thinking Alucard is one of these characters, given how much there is to his AT.
Want: 100%
Of course, my faves that got cut (Lyn, Bomberman, Shovel Knight) would be awesome to actually play. I'm also wondering on how other characters that were disconfirmed by AT but nobody technically wanted anyways would look. Especially the Moon. I want to play as the Moon, okay?

Nominations
Character Alternate Costume DLC x5

 

[Deleted member]

Abstaining on deconfirmed characters as DLC concept.


Noms:
Concept: Metroidvania-like adventure mode x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Deconfirmed Chars. for DLC:

Chance: 50% - It really depends on the character. If they're not in the game at all, except maybe as a normal trophy, then I can see them possibly being DLC if the character gets enough fans/popularity. If the character is already an assist trophy or boss, however, then I'd give them...a 10% chance? I don't want to say it's impossible, but I remember reading something about Sakurai not promoting assist trophies to playable within the same game...? I would say it's definitely possible for next game, of course.

Want: 100% - I think the Waluigi fans (not the minor 2 guys that harassed Sakurai) deserve their character, plus he'd be a cool addition to the roster and it would allow Wario & Waluigi team matches. If mai boi Skull Kid get's disconfirmed, you bet I want him in, even if I need to put a lot of votes into a potential second ballot.

Nominations:

Ninten x3
Porky Minch x2

 

[Kotor]

Abstaining on Disconfirmed Characters as DLC

Black Knight as a boss character x5