Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheDukeofDorks]

I have absolutely no idea how to rate third parties anymore, and I have zero connections to Crash, so I'm gonna abstain from all those ratings.

But a big, fat 100% want rating for Rayman. Has and will always be my most wanted character for Super Smash Brothers.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Rayman
Chance: 45% - By far the most likely third party representative - simply because his series has been represented (however minorly) in Smash before. Nintendo and Ubisoft have a very buddy-buddy relationship, and though Sakurai doesn't work at Nintendo, this is a Nintendo fighting game with some guests.
Want: 100% - Yes please - I love Rayman.

Crash Bandicoot
Chance: 7% - Definitely not in the base game. His relevancy to Nintendo has only recently become massive, after the project plan was created. Though he is popular in Japan, he is still not as close to Nintendo as Rayman.
Want: 50% - I could take or leave him, to be honest.

Nominations
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Rayman

Chance: 30%
(Previous score: 40%)

In my eyes Ubisoft is more of the more likely companies to join in, given that they've become pretty close with Nintendo. There's stuff going for him in particular. He's a pretty big name, and he's already had content in Smash. He probably had some ballot support too. I don't think Rabbids or anything are happening personally, I expect Rayman to be picked if Ubisoft gets someone. I think the biggest thing going against him though is that he's a western character, and he doesn't seem to be as big of a name in Japan. I also don't know how many third party newcomers we'll get this time, and there's one already that's looking likely (Simon Belmont). I'm ultimately not too optimistic here, but the limbless one certainly has somewhat of a shot.

Want: 70%

There are only two third parties I'm really rooting for right now, but I do like and have a connection with Rayman. I would be completely fine with his inclusion.

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 5%
(Previous score: 20%)

Yeah I was a bit too generous last time. Crash has an solid resume for DLC at least. It may not help that he's western, but he actually has had success in Japan regardless. Otherwise he's definitely iconic, and his revival and upcoming Switch port have helped him become a rather common third party choice recently. Unfortunately for the Bandicoot I'm only considering the base game for this, and a 2018 port of a 2017 release is just going to be far too late to impact the roster. He simply didn't have enough going for him prior to that, especially since his series had been dormant for quite some time. He's definitely a strong contender for DLC with what's happened for him recently, but for base roster? Not seeing it.

Want: 70%

I love Crash. His games were a big part of my childhood. His then PlayStation exclusive games, mind you, so that little thing + my having a couple of other third parties I want more prevent me from putting him among my most wanted, but I imagine I'd immediately enjoy his addition if he got in.

Paper Mario prediction: 23.28%
Celica prediction: 17.48%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[Louie G.]

Rayman:
Chance: 30%
Outside of Simon Belmont. Rayman is definitely one of the leading candidates for a third party spot. Nintendo and Ubisoft are pretty tight and Rayman inexplicably appeared as a trophy in Smash 4, so it would not only be easy to get him in the game but he's also got a presence in the series already. That's a bit of a double edged sword though, since his inclusion as a trophy and not as a playable character may give some insight regarding Sakurai's opinion on the character. From what I've read Sakurai includes third parties based on their impact on the gaming industry as a whole. Nintendo may be close with Ubisoft, but Sakurai isn't Nintendo, and Rayman (even though I love the guy) is no Sonic or Mega Man. I would argue he's Bayonetta tier but I put her in her own little sub-category. Bottom line, if Sakurai wants Rayman in Smash he could get him in no problem, but I have reservations as to whether he considers him a worthy third party addition or not.

Want: 90%
I love Rayman! With the supposedly limited space for newcomers I'm really not holding out for too many third parties, but Rayman is one character I would really love to see regardless. Rayman is awesome and I love his games and his personality.

Crash
Chance: 5%
Nope. Yeah I decided I'm not gonna go easy on this one because I'm a little bit tired of seeing his name tossed around. I mentioned before how I'm not sure whether Rayman would fit Sakurai's standard for third parties, and that unsurety goes double for Crash. A lot of Crash's momentum comes with his remakes being ported to Switch, which is definitely happening way too late to have any bearing on Smash Ultimate's roster. Outside of that I wouldn't ever consider him. I guess it helps his chances at DLC, but in the end I absolutely don't see Crash being one of the third parties crossing Sakurai's mind, and I'm not expecting too many more at all.

Want: 10%
Crash might make some people happy so that would be nice, I really don't want him though. There's really no reason for him to be in the game outside of N-Sane trilogy coming to Switch which is a pretty shoddy reason in my eyes. Not an interesting character to me, really ugly design. I'm really picky about third parties as is. I'll pass.

Chorus Kids x5

 

[ZTurtle]

Crash
Chances: 5%
With the project plan, yeah, I don't think he's happening for the base roster. Were this for DLC I may have put him at like, 50-60%, but as is, Dec 2015 is far too early for the N Sane Trilogy being released on Switch to be considered, and thus give Crash some sort of somewhat prominent connection to Nintendo beyond the very old entries that were on Nintendo systems. He does have the advantage of being one of the very few western developed game franchises to actually do pretty darn well in Japan though, so I think that would make him a solid contender for DLC.

Want: 70%
I do love Crash and his games actually. I'm not sure if he'd be the best fit for Smash, but I would love to see him fight against Mario and Sonic. I'd be pleasantly surprised if he somehow got in.

Rayman
Chances: 25%
Like everyone said, Ubisoft and Nintendo do seem to be on good terms lately, which is a good sign for Rayman. On the other hand, he never gained a following in Japan the way Crash did, and even in the West, while he is respectably popular, it's not quite to a particularly insane degree of popularity. However the whole Ubisoft-Nintendo thing and the fact that he has a trophy in Smash 4 does make me think that he has a better chance than Crash.

Want: 65%
I like Rayman. Not quite as much as Crash, but I think his games are really good, and I like the character. I could see him being fun to play as, especially with those limbless punches.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Rayman Chance - 30%: Nintendo and Ubisoft have a closer relationship than ever and it's only growing closer all the time. The random trophy in SSB4 was well timed to suggest things might be going on behind the scenes. Miyamoto specifically loves Ubisoft and has Rabbids on his desk. Rayman may have got some actual requests on the ballot and is remotely iconic in gaming while people are still very iffy on the Rabbids, so I would say Rayman is more likely than Rabbids. Still, the existence of Rabbids does take a small chunk out of Rayman's chance.

Rayman Want - 2.5%: Sorry, I just really do not like the aesthetic of this series. He's iconic and would deserve it as far as 3rd parties go, but I just don't like him. Characters like Mr. Dark, Dark Globox, etc are terrible.

Crash Bandicoot Chance - 8%: He has a 0% chance of making it onto the base roster given his series was still in the horrible mangled state it previously was before N. Sane Trilogy during the time of the design document. I doubt his requests on the ballot were particularly high. As DLC, he has a chance, but things are still very competitive on DLC when we have Rex & Pyra and Spring Man as DLC locks, limiting DLC space heavily. He also really does not seem to have any popularity left in Japan anyway, as the N. Sane trilogy sold poorly there.

Crash Bandicoot Want - 25%: I love the franchise but I can't say I would be super excited about the main character. A hypothetical second character from it would be Coco or Cortex, and Cortex was ruined for me after Clancy Brown left. Still, I have enough attachment to the series this isn't too low. As far as characters, everyone I would truly want would be secondary characters that have absolutely no chance.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[Lord-Zero]

Rayman

Chance: 7%
- He’s popular and there’s that Smash 4 trophy of him...
Want: 12%
- Not a priority but I wouldn’t mind him too much.

Crash

Chance: 7%
- He’s iconic enough and he’s got the moves.
Want: 14%
- Same as Rayman

Predictions
Paper Mario: 19.5%
Celica: 16%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x4
Neptune (Neptunia Series) x1

 

[Hot_N_Tasty]

Abstain from Crash Ratings.

Rayman:

Chances: 35% Out of all 3rd parties acknowledged by Smash bros in past installments, he is the only one not yet playable, Not to mention he had attention drummed up shortly before the ballot with the Artsyomni hoax, which may have equated some extra ballot votes. To further compound on this, Ubisoft and Nintendo have been very friendly for many years at this point. Out of all 3rd parties, (Sans the possibly leaked Belmont) I feel he has the best shot. (This is chances for base game, if we are counting DLC, in my mind his chances go up significantly)

Wating: 100% He is my most wanted newcomer plain and simple.

Nominate: Wonder Red x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Crash
Chance - 20%
He's still an iconic mascot no matter how you cut it. Not sure how Base/DLC factor into these scores as he has better odds at DLC. But even without that, he was pretty huge for awhile.
Want - 100%
I like him and think he'd fit right into the cast. He's wacky and cute. The comment he isn't "Eastern" enough in visuals is beyond confusing to me.

Rayman
Chance - 25%
He's still pretty iconic, though Rabbids kind of stole his spotlight. However, that Mario Rabbid game shows Rayman isn't far fetched.
Want - 75%
I have some memories of him, though less than others. I think he'd be cool overall.

Nominations 5x Monster Hunter

 

[Opossum]

Crash
Chance: 20%
This is including DLC and is high for a third party score for me. I feel his history and popularity will be enough to carry him.

Want: 100%
My most wanted third party character.

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Ramen
Chance: 10%
If we get Rayman reps they are gonna be Rabbids, I'm tellin ya man.

Want: 5%
I would disappointed that he's not a Rabbid.

Cresh
Chance: 15%
Crash is a gaming icon along the lines of Bubsy and Spyro. He has at least a shot.

Want: 100%
WOAH

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[andimidna]

Rayman:
The 2nd most likely 3rd party after Simon imo. I just don’t see many as locks. The relationship with Ubisoft dipped but seems to have gotten better again. Never forget those trophies last game
Chance: 34%
Want: 60%
I like the aesthetic of his games without caring much about him himself. He’s fine though, and deserving enough for sure

Crash:
More likely as DLC despite being a gaming icon since there wasn’t as much of a push before given ppl didn’t think it was possible and there was no knowledge of the games coming to the switch. I don’t rate based off DLC, we can do that when we have the full starting roster imo
Chance: 15%
Want: 35%
He deserves it but his design is unappealing to me. Nothing I’d be mad about w/e

Predictions:
Celica: 18.5%
On one hand we know everyone is returning, on the other hand we know a lot was figured out long before FE Switch. But then again, echo fighters are a thing, but also, Chrom seems most likely at this point for an FE echo fighter. Hard to tell where it’ll shift because everything we knew to rate this character changed basically
Paper Mario: 25.5%

 

[Souldin]

I'm not sure if I'm supposed to make additional comments outside of my vote, though this is still regarding the Crash and Rayman votes and I have seen others do so, as such here is an additional comment from me on this subject.

Now while I do believe that Crash's chances have been lowered by the supposed planning date of December 2015 (or a few months after that, when work began), I am very surprised to see people cite Crash having little history with Nintendo. Sure, Crash hasn't had much in terms of gaming on Nintendo systems, but his key tie to Nintendo is the opposite; his history with Nintendo is being the face of the competition much like Sonic. When we consider Sonic's history with Nintendo, I'm fairly sure we're not talking about his ports or GBA games. I highly doubt Sonic got into SSB because of Sonic & The Secret Rings. Sonic's history and importance within SSB as a third party guest (not much of a guest if they keep coming back) character is through his role as the mascot of Sega, through his role of Sonic vs. Mario. Likewise, though not to quite the same degree due to never being official, Crash vs. Mario was the playground argument of the 5th Generation, the PlayStation vs. Mario argument summed up with their two most associated and iconic mascots. That said, I do agree that Crash isn't likely, but I don't put many 3rd parties likely.

Also, whilst a little off-topic (though mentioned often when suggesting Rayman's chances), why is everyone considering Simon Belmont the likeliest 3rd party? Is it just because of the supposed leak? We... we have learned our lesson about trusting those 100%, haven't we?

At least with Cloud he's representing Final Fantasy as a whole*, even if I'd prefer a more Nintendo-friendly FF character (Terra, Black Mage, Moogle, or something like that)

*Speaking of, they'd better put in some music from FF6 and other installments this time.

I'm not a fan of 3rd party additions (particularly the amount we have), but Cloud's addition was really baffling for much the same reasons you pointed out. Honestly, given the leanings towards the Japanese appealing series in SSB and the greater connected to Nintendo, I figured that any potential Square Enix rep would be more likely to come from Dragon Quest (or as you noted, a NES or SNES Final Fantasy).

 

[skylanders fan]

Rayman
chance
had a trophy in Smash 4 and Ubisoft has been close with Nintendo. But with a limited roster I don't lnow if he would have gotten enough fan votes to be added to the roster
30%

want
80%
I'm all for seeing him in Smash however just a few more 3rd parties I want more like..

Crash
chance
90's icon that was planned to make his return after the roster was planned and sadly I just don't think they was enough people wanting him in at that time.
10%

want
100%
a huge icon for gaming and easy to see as possible DLC just don't think he will be on the main roster. In my top 5 most wanted newcomers aswell.

nominating Incenoroar x5

prediciting
celica at 10%
paper mario at 40%

 

[DaUsername]

Crash
Chance: 0.01%
His franchise was still in the middle of being dead when tye roster was finalized, so his chances of getting in the base roster are pretty much dead, too.
In short: WHOA!
Want: 99%
Hopefully I'm wrong, though.

Rayman
Chance: 30%
If we're gonna get a third party from outside of Japan, this is probably the most likely choice. But I still have suspicions that Sakurai just doesn't want to include him for whatever reason.
Want: 90%
I like the Rayman series and he seems like he would be fun to play as.

Celica prediction: 11%
PM prediction: 17%
Noms: All stages return x5

 

[Wonks]

Rayman: 81%
Based on the closeness between Ubi and Nintendo from the last six years and the cross-over with Rabbids, I feel like this is almost a certainty. The only thing preventing this is the lack of new characters and Rayman possibly only receiving an upgrade from trophy to assist trophy, but I think Sukkopon has the limbless AT role covered.

Crash: 26%
I felt great about his chances pre-E3, but knowing that Crash Trilogy is only coming to Switch because of the effort of one employee leads me to think there wasn't a lot of back-and-forth communication between the two companies regarding Smash or Crash. I hope he's in though, to all the boxes for platforming icons. Given Crash wasn't even in Sony Battle Royale All Stars (or whatever it was called) gives me hope.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Rayman: 70% - Ubisoft and Nintendo are like best friends right now, I am sure Ubisoft would not object to their mascot being playable in Smash.

Crash: 20% - He's an icon sure but I feel his comeback was too late to be considered. DLC perhaps.

Abstain for Want for both. I haven't experienced their games enough.

Nominations: Rhythm/Tap Trial Girl x5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Rayman

Chance: 25%
Ok, so last time I gave a him 65%... which was way too high of a percentage for a third party character imo nyao. If Nintendo is looking for an Ubisoft character (since they are buddy buddies nyao), its likely him or the Rabbids nya. Which is more likely? Beats me nya~

Want: 20%
Opinion hasn't changed, minus 5% from previously. I don't care for him, and neither his games nya.


Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 20%
Opinion hasn't changed much nya, his game coming to the switch could help him a bit and he is an iconic character. But being third party, I can't see him being super likely meww~

Want: 20%
Opinion hasn't changed nya. I've never play his games, and I'm honostly nyot interested either nya.


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Rayman and Crash
10% chances each


Oh my. I see some people are still optimistic on Rayman but I feel it is gonna happen as dlc. Simply put I do not think any third party that is not directly involved in smash already is likely. Ubisoft and Activision are not, so there ya go.

100% Want each

I love both series. Legends is an amazing game and m sane trilogy is amazing as well.


Expect calcs around 3.

 

[Takasmash]

Rayman
Chance 40%
Want 100%

Crash
Chance 10%
Want 5%

 

[Nimbostratus]

Rayman
Chance- 20%
Always felt he was rated too high. Nintendo and Ubisoft are close, but Sakurai still has to think Rayman is actually a good fit. Not sure if the trophy is a good thing or not- he obviously had the ability to add Rayman and chose not to. Does Sakurai not think Rayman is worthy of being a fighter? Same thing happened to Bomberman. Given the competition for slots and the wide possibilities for third parties, Rayman could have a hard time standing out, especially if Simon gets in. He's popular, but I haven't seen enough to suggest he dominated the ballot. Being from a Western developer probably isn't a good thing, either.
He's certainly possible, but I'm far from convinced.
Want- 65%
I like Rayman and would be fine with him getting in. He's not super hype for me, though, especially given the limited amount of newcomers.

Crash
Chance- 9%
Popularity peaked too late, in my opinion, with the N. Sane Trilogy. He had support back in the day, sure, but I don't remember it really lighting up the charts, either. Doubt he made too much of an impression on the ballot. Rayman seems more likely as a third party Western developer.
Want- 70%
I've warmed up to the idea a lot. It makes me laugh a little to see another Sony icon be in Smash. Still don't want him over a lot of first parties, but I'm cool with this.

 

[Marcello691]

Rayman and Crash both get 0% chance and 0% want from me.
As long as Nintendo is not willing to put Dixie or K.Rool in smash who are western-developed characters and even fully owned by them, I don't understand why ppl think they would put in rayman or crash beforehand.
Also crash was created by naughty dog, an american studio that has been working with sony only. They cold-heartedly sold crash, which was very very successful on PlayStation and every game that came after the original trilogy was really really really bad....so I don't see any reason why he should be in smash.
As for rayman.... Ubisoft and Nintendo have a good relationship I guess? I mean it's not like we're getting triple a games like Assassin's creed, Rabbids Kingdom battle is a great and fun game though, but rayman wasn't in that game. Rayman Legends and origins sold poorly and with dixie kong having her helicopter spin I don't want rayman to be there either because he would also have a helicopter spin, that would take away Dixie's uniqueness.

 

[Klimax]

Rayman
Chances: 50%
It's really hard to say. Ubisoft and Nintendo are getting closer and that's clearly an interesting thing. Remember that Nintendo is the company that can be really agressive because you just made a damn good fan game (AM2R). So, letting Ubisoft doing a game with Mario is clearly a big deal. Rayman managed to get a trophy in Smash 4 and at the time, there were some tensions between Nintendo and Ubisoft (Rayman Legends was supposed to be a WII U exclusive but Ubisoft changed their minds when they saw the U's sales, which is understandable). Today, the two companies are closer than ever, so i wouldn't be surprised to see a character from ubisoft in smash. And the only one that seems likely is Rayman because he's their most iconic character (Rayman 1 is an absolute classic, the 2nd is a really solid 3D action platformer, the 3rd is a pretty good game... Many people love Origins and Legends too).

It seems that he's popular in Europe. Maybe i'm not objective because in France, Rayman was and is still a big deal. I have no idea about his popularity in America. But i know that he's a nobody in Japan.

Maybe they can include him in Smash and then have a HD trilogy as a Switch's game only (HD trilogies are a trend these days). Seems like a win/win situation.

Want: 100%
My very first game was Rayman 1. I love the character and i love his universe and the sense of humor of the first three games. I'm clearly not a fan of his latest adventures (Origins and Legends don't feel like Rayman's games in my opinion, they're bland and the humor is lame + they don't even have a story) but I still love him and of course i would be happy to see him in Smash.


Crash Bandicoot
Chances: 0%
I just can't imagine it, not now. Sure, N Sane Trilogy is coming to the Switch and the timing seems good but i think that's just not enough.

Want: 100%
I can't be objective here, Crash Bandicoot 3 is my second game ever. I really love the character and his games even though the vast majority of the games post Naughty Dog's era were really bad (except Nitro Kart and Twinsanity).

 

[Quetzal77]

Rayman
Chance: 45% / Want: 0%
Kind of feeling Ubisoft is a likely third party here. I definitely think they deserve it but honestly I'd prefer a different character, like Ezio or another AC rep.

Crash
Chance: 5% / Want: 0%
Late port and no other real support. I don't see any reason why Crash would be a priority over other third parties and there's limited space this time. I like his games but I don't think he needs to be in Smash.

Nominations: Neku x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Crash Bandicoot

11.25% Chance (Previously 31.04% Chance)
51.10% Want (Previously 51.15% Want)

With less of a prospect for the base game, Crash suffered a huge hit in chance. There still is a good bit of optimism for dlc though. Also his want score is nearly the same.

Rayman

32.52% Chance (Previously 48.49% Chance)
56.87% Want (Previously 58.25% Want)


Another big hit. Though Rayman is still seen as more likely, losing almost a 16 percentage point average is a big drop. Similar want scores still.

Will tag the winners later, going out in a bit. Rate Paper Mario and Celica today, tomorrow we got Shovel Knight and Shantae, predict them.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Paper Mario
Chance: 16% - I can definitely see him showing up due to his popularity, but the number of Mario characters is already pretty big (8 in total; 15 if you count the Koopalings as actual characters), and he is from a spinoff, which we've never gotten in Smash before, so Sakurai may not choose him. Popularity is a factor this time around, so it's possible. It's also not unheard of to see three of the same character (hello, Link) simultaneously, so we'll just have to see.
Want: 5% - I've never played one of his titles all the way through; I'm not attached to the character.

Celica
Chance: 3% - All she has going for her is her current relevancy. She could definitely show up (as DLC) if Sakurai likes the character, but he already feels Fire Emblem is over-represented; so with maybe the exception of fan-favorite Chrom and perhaps the rising stars of Three Houses as DLC, I doubt we'll get another FE fighter this time around.
Want: 5% - I'm not a fan of the franchise, but I do like her character design and I wouldn't be upset if she got in, provided certain other characters do first (R.I.P. Takamaru...)

Nominations
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Paper Mario

Chance: 75%
He has a lot of support, and even though the last 3 games sucked, the series is still a financial success.

Want: 80%
I loved Thousand Year Door and Super Paper Mario, so I'd love to see him in Smash.

Celica:

Chance: 0%
Last time, I gave her a 15% and said I severely doubted there'd be another Fire Emblem unless there were serious cuts. Unfortunately, there were none, so now I believe she has no chance.

Want: 0%

Shovel Knight prediction: 10%

Shantae prediction: 10%

Nominations:
Raiden x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I do not see Celica happening at this point. The latter I believe Sakurai will use six month timing when considering a Fire Emblem newcomer again, which would be far too late when it comes to the intial project plan in December 2015. The only way I could see Celica considered is if Sakurai pulls a Greninja situation, but I do not think he will be looking into FE newcomers at all considering how he viewed Fire Emblem as overrepresented when he first considered Corrin for Smash 4 DLC. I cannot imagine he will be lenient towards FE this time for Smash Ultimate.

For Paper Mario, until his series manages to recover with a new and super successful installment, I cannot see him happening any time soon. Geno and even Captain Toad have a better chance of being considered than Paper Mario for the 2015 project plan.

x5 Leon Kennedy

 

[CaptainAmerica]

More rerates!

TIL: Her name is 'Celica,' not Cecilia

Chance: 45%
Want: 0%

Blah blah another Fire Emblem character...

Yes, she's important in the newest Fire Emblem game, but now there might be a new one coming out. She also gets to share the spotlight with Alm, and her swordsmanship moveset is offset by some magic...like Robin's. In short, she's not super unique as far as character goes.

She definitely has the upper hand against Lyn, but that's only because Lyn's a bit dated now. Celi's much more recent, but that means she doesn't have as large of a fan following. And like was said a bunch yesterday: people are starting to get Fire Emblem fatigue.

Personally, I'd be okay with a new Fire Emblem representative, as long as they had a really unique moveset - and this is where I'd look for spearmen. BDee never really struck me as a spearman since he's Kirby shaped, and thus wouldn't be able to do more than poke with it, and Mr. G&W has more depth than Mipha's character, so I'd really hope that our first big spear user is from Fire Emblem. I've never played any Fire Emblem game, so I'm only looking at the concept arts, but based on that I'm still kind of on the Azura train since she was the character that was in most of the Fates promos, and she would be very different from our current Fire Emblem roster, but I know Fates is older now and people are hating on it for Corrin (not gonna lie, so was I). So we'll see...

And I promise, my liking Azura has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that she shares a name with the Daedric Prince of Dusk and Dawn from the Elder Scrolls series.

Ok, so from the fire Emblem Wiki, Shadows of Valentia came out...last year? If we're considering that the roster was finalized in December '15, a game which released in 2017 from a franchise which the director has admitted may be oversaturated...?

Yeah, gonna have to say that these scores are taking a dive.

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

Flatman

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

A 2-D character who uses a hammer? So ? Honestly, haven't played any of the Paper series, but I'd rather see Daisy AND Waluigi before any other Mario characters.

Well, we've got three Links now, but the two 'not the real ones' are vets. It was the original that got most of the new stuff. I guess I could see them bringing in another Mario, but I don't know how many changes they'd end up making beyond the 'real' one.

Looking back on release dates, they did have Paper Jam come out right around the time the roster was finalized, and there Paper Mario interacts with Mario, so it's obvious they're two different characters. And a year later, we got Color Splash. Seems like a lot for him.

Still, I'll stick with the sentiment I had before, but the chance is definitiely going up.

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

Lol, we shared PM's day with Daisy's. Great to look back at all of that now...

EDIT: Forgot my noms!
Smash Run x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Paper Mario
Chance: 25%
Ballot popularity could help, but I feel Captain Toad and Geno will be higher priority when it comes to Mario newcomers. I'm also unsure on if Sakurai views him as just another Mario.

Want: 80%
With the more fanservicey approach this Smash is getting, I feel like if he would be playable he'd be based off the games that are actually well liked by hardcore fans. Hopefully nothing from Sticker Star would show up.

Celica
Chance: 0.5%
With the project plan being finished December 2015 I can no longer see her happen. Fates wasn't even released internationally by that time, so I doubt Intelligent systems was already requesting Sakurai again to put in another FE lord from a game that was nowhere near finished yet. Let's not forget that Sakurai was hesitant to add Corrin to the roster and that even before adding them he felt FE had more than enough representatives.. With no FE character getting cut, I don't think we'll be getting anymore FE characters who aren't echo figthers atleast, which I doubt she can be.

Shovel Knight: 12.07%
Shantae: 6.52%

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Impa4Smash]

Paper Mario

Chances 25%
I can't really see Paper Mario getting in the game, as cool as he may be. I know there are 3 Links, but they're at least different Links. BotW Link, Toon, and Young. Plus Paper Mario isn't really doing too great recently. Probably just stage representation.

Want 50%
I love the OG Paper Mario & TTYD (even like Super Paper Mario), but newer Paper Mario not so much. He could have a cool move set though, but in terms of Mario characters I'd rather get Captain Toad, or even Geno. Or in the grand scheme of things (not this game) Waluigi.


Celica

Chances 40%
I could see her getting in as a Robin echo. But that's it. Shadows of Valentia is a great game, but I'm not sure if it was big enough to warrant a newcomer. But maybe. Edelgard as DLC is probably far more likely.

Want 100%
I love Celica. Love Fire Emblem. Having her in the game would be great. But preferably as an echo just because of the limited roster.

 

[PeridotGX]

A Fighter From Echoes

Chance: 25%. She's in a really weird spot with the reveal of when the Roster was made. I doubt she did well in the ballot, which doesn't help. I think Echoes being a remake may be her saving grace. While other 2017-on characters are doomed (Spring-Man, Rex), Sakurai could've played FE2 to get a good Celica Moveset. I don't think she's that likely, but not impossible.

Want: 35%. I haven't played Echoes yet, but I plan to, and a self-damaging moveset done right would be cool.

Tree Paste Italian Man

Chance: 55%. If anyone benifitted from the Project Plan time, it's him. Paper Jam just Released, Color Splash was coming relatively soon, and he probably did OK in the ballot. While those two games were... eh, they did give Paper Mario some additional moveset stuff. Plus, he would also represent the Mario RPGs, something rather important that's gotten nothing but trophies and music.

Want: 20%. I'm mostly indifferent, but SPM was a pretty good game.

Nominations: Octoling x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Nominations: Octoling x5

We already rated Octolings a while ago. Just so you know.

 

[Starbound]

Celica: 3% chance, 100% want

Really just too little, too late. Echoes likely missed the boat due to coming out at de development started. Pichu's return also steals the self-damage mechanic, and Sakurai is already wary of aging more FE characters.

Paper Mario: 40% chance, 100% want

Color Splash was relevant due to similar development times between it and Smash, which provides a case of "right place, right time". He could have a scavenger style, designed around collecting stickers/cards/badges that power up his moves, similar to PW in UMvC3. I think the Mario series newcomer comes down to between Paper Mario and Geno, and I think it's a pretty close race.

Tapu Koko x5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Paper Mario:
Chance: 20%
Mario representation is in limbo right now, Daisy got in as clone, Waluigi is dead for sure, but then there's Captain Toad being in the usual Toad-peril now.
Normally, I would've given Captain the benefit of doubt, but the role Toad plays is unneccesarily upgraded from meat shield to semi bodyguard, which doesn't spell well for our treasured tracker.
Paper Mario himself is harmed by the project plan timing, with Color Splash being possibly a bit late to consider which would mean Paper Mario's stellar run in the last generation with essentially two games to his name might be limited to just Paper Jam.
I spread my 60% chance of a unique Mario newcomer across Geno, Paper Mario and Captain Toad

Want: 80%

A Fighter From Echoes

Chance: 25%. She's in a really weird spot with the reveal of when the Roster was made. I doubt she did well in the ballot, which doesn't help. I think Echoes being a remake may be her saving grace. While other 2017-on characters are doomed (Spring-Man, Rex), Sakurai could've played FE2 to get a good Celica Moveset. I don't think she's that likely, but not impossible.

Want: 35%. I haven't played Echoes yet, but I plan to, and a self-damaging moveset done right would be cool.

Paper Paste Italian Man

Chance: 55%. If anyone benifitted from the Project Plan time, it's him. Paper Jam just Released, Color Splash was coming soon, and he probably did OK in the ballot. While those two games were... eh, they did give Paper Mario some additional moveset stuff. Plus, he would also represent the Mario RPGs, something rather important that's gotten nothing but trophies and music.

Want: 20%. I'm mostly indifferent, but SPM was a pretty good game.

Nominations: Octoling x5

Color Splash was shown to the public in March 2016 and released in October of that year.
Paper Jam did release in December 2015 though

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain all across the board here. Never played a Paper Mario game nor SoV (Fire Emblem in general is a series I'd like to play more of).

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[AlphaSSB]

Paper Mario

Chance: 10% - If the Super Mario series is getting a new character, Paper Mario is a strong candidate now that Daisy has been confirmed and Waluigi deconfirmed. However, he still has competition with Captain Toad. I don't really see him happening, but his chances are better than most.

Want: 1% - I've played one Paper Mario game, and not all the way through. I've really no attachment to the character, and although he has potential to be a unique fighter, I think there's better choices out there.


Celica

Chance: 1% - I think she's done for. The only way I could've seen Fire Emblem getting any newcomers was if the series suffered substantial cuts, but every single one of the lot had returned. Sakurai was concerned with how many there were before Corrin, and he only got in due to a promotion opportunity and because the development team had to push for him. I strongly believe we will not be seeing any new Fire Emblem characters now, clones or non-clones.

Want: 0% - Maybe if the series had suffered significant cuts, I'd be more open to her. Especially if she had Opossum's moveset for her. With the whole Fire Emblem cast back, I'd much rather we didn't add more on top of an already massive pile.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[NintenRob]

Paper Mario
Chance 5%
I've never viewed him as particularly likely and I don't think we're getting another Mario character. Limited space
Want 10%
Better than Geno, but that's about it

Celica
Chance 0%
We already have a lot of Fire Emblem characters so I doubt it was a priority for Sakurai to ask about future games.
Want 0%
No. Please no

Prediction
Shovel Knight 3%
Shantae 5%

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x3
All stages returning x2

 

[ShinyRegice]

I missed Rayman's day? Nooooo I genuinely expected his day to still be open at the current hour
Anyway I don't really have an opinion on Celica so I'm gonna abstain like last time, although Sakurai's comment about the number of FE characters hurts her to some extent, and I'm just gonna copy-paste my previous comments about Paper Mario since I believe they're still accurate:

Paper Mario chances: 21%
What I wrote for his day:

He's not relly the kind of character I'd expect to get the highest priority, but I could imagine him getting in as the last unique character added or something. He has some advantages on his side, like having his own subseries and even being acknowledged as his own character in a M&L game since the last Smash, plus having a stage on Smash 3DS. Part of me expects Captain Toad over him however.

Paper Mario want: 52%
What I wrote for his day:

I enjoyed what I played of TTYD, and I guess he'd be a cool character.

Shovel Knight prediction: 8.55%
Shantae prediction: 7.94%

Also I pledge to forgo predictions for two weeks if I miss a day in RTC within less than 7 consecutive days. Gonna be an incentive for me to not procrastinate and then realize the day is over before I rate.

Nominating:
Returning game mode: Smash Run x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Paper Mario

Chance - 25%

Considering the the increased emphasis on fanservice, I feel like Sakurai no longer feels like he has to go with something more relevant, so both Paper Mario and Geno now provide a much larger threat to his chances, in terms of being a Mario newcomer, due to their seemingly increased amount of requests on a worldwide scale.

He's a moderately popular pick, and had some recent games around the time of planning with Paper Jam and Color Splash. He faces competition from Geno and Captain Toad for the sake of a Mario newcomer, but I can see him happening.

Chance - 60%

I love three of the Paper Mario games. If he has a moveset pulled from his first three games, I'd be more than happy to see him. If we're getting a more Sticker Star / Color Splash moveset, then please keep him away.

Celica

Chance - 1%

I don't think we're getting an FE newcomer this time around, at the very least, as a base game character.

Sakurai's already stated that he feels we already have too many Fire Emblem characters in the game, her ballot support was likely extremely limited, due to the Gaiden remake not being announced at the time, and I don't think promoting Fire Emblem Echoes would be a top priority for Sakurai.

Alongside that, Pichu's return kind of makes the idea of a self-harming fighter less unique, even if Celica wouldn't be a total joke of a character, like Pichu is.

Want - 10%

I think she could make for a fun fighter, being a but I'd really rather just not have seven Fire Emblem characters in the game.