I know it's no longer Bandana Dee's day but I wont' ignore this.
I'm not going to get into specifics about BWD, since BWD's day is over, but you're making arguments like this "such isn't a point against BWD, but look at [vastly more popular character/series]". The fact that the other character is vastly more popular doesn't mean that that aspect doesn't matter, it means they have other considerations that are much more important than those demerits. It is, like I said, treating vastly different characters/series as if they're otherwise equal when they are not. When there are several points against a character, it's not good arguing to say that each point individually can be overcome without considering whether the characters being compared have other significant differences!
I can't say "Krystal is a side character, but so is Rosalina" and "Star Fox doesn't have amazingly impressive sales, but neither does the Yoshi series" and so neither sales nor being a side character matters. Rosalina is a side character, but her games had high sales and were critical triumphs - unlike Krystal's games in both regards. The Yoshi games don't have a huge amount more sales than Star Fox, but Yoshi is the main character in them, unlike Krystal. Being a side character AND from a lower-selling series AND from less well-received games within the series - all at the same time - is a problem. Perhaps not coincidentally, Krystal is yet again not playable.
The other thing you're doing is attacking a straw man - like when I say "this does/doesn't make a character more likely" pretending that I said "this is irrelevant" or "this means a character has NO chance" ("sales aren't everything" does not mean "sales aren't important" which is what you pretend that I said). For example, to get on topic, the point I made about trophies is relevant to
Isaac, who we're talking about today.
Well guess we should actually look at the trophy list from Smash 4 to look for newcomers after all. Sorry Geno. Sorry Isaac. You guys are out.
First of all, this is a silly thing to say, because it's not as if I've been handing out 0% scores to any character that didn't have a trophy in Smash 4. I very clearly didn't make this argument. I wasn't saying that a lack of trophy means a character has no chance. But absent extenuating circumstances, yes, I view that as a point against a character. But a point against doesn't mean "no chance". That is an obvious misrepresentation being used to dismiss as unimportant the fact that certain desired characters didn't get trophies when there's a greater chance they would have if they were important/popular/etc. enough to become playable.
So for Rosalina, I was pointing out that Rosalina not being a trophy in Brawl didn't have much relevance to her chances for Smash 4 because Mario Galaxy came out too late to have
any content in Brawl. Mario Galaxy was expected to be a big deal - it was a major, prestige title (one of the best reviewed video games of all time) and it sold like one. It would be silly to suggest that Galaxy received no content in Brawl (no music, no stages, no stickers, no trophies) because it wasn't
important enough. It's obvious it was just about timing. So if I say that a lack of a trophy is a point against a character, Rosalina is not a good counterexample.
For Geno, the fact that he is a third-party is an extenuating circumstance for why he did not get any representation in Smash until Smash 4 DLC. It is no coincidence that when Cloud became playable, Geno simultaneously got a Mii costume - because Nintendo was already working with Square at that point. And hey, Geno ain't playable yet anyway! So how can he be proof that X doesn't stop a character from being playable? So like with Rosalina, Geno is not a good counterexample that trophy representation is irrelevant, for multiple reasons.
Neither of those extenuating circumstances apply to Isaac (or many other characters who are
not under discussion today). Isaac is 2nd party, and has been around for a long time. The last Golden Sun game (Dark Dawn) came out 4 years before Smash 4. And the original two Golden Sun games came out 13 years earlier. Isaac's lack of inclusion in Smash 4 is very much a valid thing to consider and significantly hurts his chances, IMO. It suggests Sakurai does not view him as especially important. It might've helped if he had gotten a DLC Mii costume, too, but that didn't happen.
Golden Sun did get an additional music track in SSB4, but Isaac was not only dropped as an Assist Trophy, but Golden Sun got no trophies whatsoever. This does not bode well for his inclusion. He would also be less unique as a fighter than in the pre-Brawl or pre-SSB4 period, since there are now more sword-using characters, including several with projectiles and magically-enhanced attacks. The most similar being Robin, who makes extensive use of elemental magic in addition to a sword. Isaac could still be unique, of course, as a Venus adept his specialty is earth and plant-based magic, neither of which is used by any other swordfighter.
It's also worth noting that the Earthbound series is always a counterexample to show that a minor series with a cult following can get in - or even get two reps. But Sakurai seems to be a fan of Earthbound, and if he had a soft spot for Golden Sun, he probably would have at least given it a trophy or two.
But Isaac does have some decent enduring popularity, so he might've done ok on the ballot, although it seems he is significantly less popular in Japan than the US (not sure about Europe/elsewhere). But that's pretty much the only
major thing he has going for him. But you know, Ridley. That
might be enough.
Isaac chances: 9%
Isaac has some significant barriers - the series had declining sales across its three games, and Isaac was only the main character in the first one, and Sakurai
cut Golden Sun content for Smash 4. But his enduring, albeit not massive, popularity could get him in in the name of fanservice.
Isaac want: 60%
I like the Golden Sun games, but he is a less unique idea than he was originally. There are several other characters I'd rather see. A point in his favor is that if he got in, maybe we'd see another Golden Sun sequel, which I would like.
Dixie Kong
As I've said before, I'm expecting at least one or two more echo fighters. And Dixie is an
excellent candidate to be one, for multiple reasons.
1. Dixie Kong is a popular character, generally doing well in Smash polls, although significantly less so than her DKC compatriot K Rool
2. Donkey Kong is a
severely underrepresented series. The games have over 70 million in sales, and just the DKC subseries has over 34 million in sales. It's by far the largest series to have less than three reps. Her and K Rool's popularity in polls shows that those sales do translate to popularity and that DK fans do feel like their series' roster is not complete.
3. She has similar proportions to Diddy Kong, and having identical weight, speed, jump, etc. works perfectly fine for her.
4. Most of Diddy's moves work perfectly fine for her. His punches and kicks pose no problem at all, and neither do Monkey Flip, Banana Peel or Peanut Popgun. Peanut Popgun would be changed to Dixie's Gumball Popgun either as a purely aesthetic change or with slightly different properties. The main moves that demand changes are that Dixie doesn't have a tail, so if Diddy's tail is still used for anything that would need to change (it seems his tail jab combo has been changed) and to make her moveset really fit, you'd want to give her a helicopter-hair up-B recovery. Optionally, her grab and heavy item carry could utilize her hair, but I'm not sure how much change that would require (whether it could be purely aesthetic or not). Final Smash might need to be different too, but we don't know what Diddy's new FS is (presumably it's changed so that it "gets to the point").
But basically, only a couple moves require changes, and so she would work quite well as an Echo Fighter much like Dark Pit, with 2 or 3 altered moves, but otherwise identical except for aesthetics. We don't know how many moves have to stay the same for an Echo Fighter, or if Sakurai will allow them to differ more than Lucina and Dark Pit did. All we know is that they should presumably be more similar than Mario/Dr Mario, Marth/Roy, etc.
Of course, Dixie also has potential as a more unique fighter, utilizing her hair more and other moves from the DKC games or spinoffs. But given how well she'd work as an Echo Fighter and the fact that K Rool could also be a unique newcomer and would NOT work as an Echo Fighter, she has a much better chance as an echo.
Dixie Kong chances: 46%
K Rool is the big problem here. I don't know if K Rool getting in as a unique character would affect her chances, but he has a lot higher demand for inclusion than she does. She is also competing against Funky, who would also be a plausible echo, and other Kongs. But K Rool and Dixie are by far the most likely DK reps. Fire Emblem shows that getting a unique newcomer (or two, with DLC
) and a clone is very possible. Nintendo is evidently continuing to support the series by rereleasing Tropical Freeze on Switch (a game which really didn't sell as well as it should have, given how good it was - perhaps held back by the Wii U's small user base). Given how popular she is and how perfectly she would work as a Diddy echo with only a handful of non-aesthetic changes, she has a lot going for her even if we see K Rool added.
Dixie Kong want: 85%
I'm a fan of the DKC games, and I like Dixie Kong. DKC2 was one of my favorite SNES games. While I don't want her as much as K Rool, I'd definitely be glad to see her even without him. I also appreciate increasing female representation in Smash.
