Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[MasterOfKnees]

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 50% - I personally believe that K. Rool will take priority, but regardless of that Dixie is still fairly likely, DKC is the one series I can see getting two newcomers. Semi clone or fully unique, she'll work either way, but she won't be an echo.

Want: 50% - Fine if she's in, fine if she isn't.

Isaac:

Chance: 15% - Dead franchise, no trace of him last game, and although he has decent popularity he's still some ways off of the most popular suggestions, and he'd need to be somewhere around the very top to even be considered. Golden Sun remains a series only the Nintendo faithful remember, and Isaac himself is beginning to slip into obscurity amongst the wider Nintendo fanbase, so I find it hard to see him making it in.

Want: 60% - I don't have any relation to Golden Sun, but it'd be cool to see someone not relevant in any way make it in. He also has a fair bit of moveset potential.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Dixie Kong: Chance - 70%

I feel K. Rool may have priority over her but as a semi-clone of Diddy she has a good shot, I don't think a full echo would work for obvious reasons. Once again, her appearance in Tropical Freeze means a lot.

Want - 80%

She is really cool, what can I say? Also another DK character is just great in general.

Isaac: Chance - 10%

I only give him this score due to potential of the ballot since his series is dead.

Want - 30%

I know nothing about Golden Sun but from what I have read he sounds like he could have great potential in terms of ability and moveset.

EDIT: Forgot nominations again!!! Rhythm/Tap Trial Girl x5

 

[Billybae10K]

Dixie Kong: Chance - 70%

Personally, I see Dixie as having more of a chance than K Rool as she's actually been in more recent titles and is fondly remembered as the Player 3 of the DK games. I've never been into the games myself, but even a casual DK fan like myself knows how important Dixie is to the Kong trio and if she's going to become playable, I think now is 100% the time for it to happen.

Want - 50%

As I don't have much experience with the DK games, I'm not too hot on actually wanting Dixie. However given I'm a fan of how Diddy plays and I imagine she'd have a somewhat similar playstyle, I'd love to see her in the game. I just wonder whether K Rool getting in could hurt her chances or vice versa as with limited newcomer slots it's less likely Sakurai would give a franchise multiple newcomers.


Isaac: Chance - 40%

I am skeptical as to Isaac's inclusion. Some days I wake up and think he's got a great shot and other days I'm feeling a lot more pessimistic about his chances. Golden Sun, as a franchise, has been dead for the past eight years, however, Golden Sun did receive a second music track in Smash 4 which means it's not completely forgotten about by Sakurai. Of course, having his AT cut after Brawl is a big hit against him, but we have no idea what the reasoning behind the cut was, so I won't make judgements. If he's getting in, it'll be through the ballot and I can say that when the ballot votes were going in, I didn't frequent any speculation boards but I cast my vote for Isaac, so at the time I'd have been a silent voter and Isaac could be a case of a "Silent Majority" voting in his favour. Of course, that's speculation, but I really do believe he's got a shot given the Project Plan's first draft in 2015, so soon after the ballot.

Want - 100%

He's the only character in this game that I want. I honestly couldn't give a damn about anyone else in terms of care when Isaac's on the cards still as I've been wanting him since the Brawl speculation days. So more than 10 years at least. He'd have a more varied moveset than your typical sword fighter and has a lot of options about him, not to mention that even though his franchise is dead, Golden Sun was one of the best selling franchises on the GBA, a sorely under-repped period of time as far as playable characters go, so he'd be a perfect candidate to showcase that time period. That being said, if he doesn't return as a fighter, I do think we'll see the return of his AT.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Isaac
Chance- 32%
I would agree that some of these scores are overly optimistic, but 0% chance? Come on.
The series is in bad shape, no arguing that. The severity of its "deadness" is perhaps overrated, though. It's been 8 years since Dark Dawn. Did you know the wait between The Lost Age and Dark Dawn JP releases was just as long? Metroid has gone on 8 and 6 year waits before as well, and that didn't make the series "dead." Dark Dawn did poorly, but calling the series "utterly dead 0% hope ever" is a bit dramatic. Compare that to something like Mother where the creators have basically confirmed, "Yes, it's dead." Based of Dark Dawn's ending, the creators still have stories they would like to tell if they get the chance. Though I'd also be fine with just reconning DD. It's good to see Camelot get a bit more faith from Nintendo with Aces.

Nothing has changed for him since the last rating? Hardly so. We've learned two important facts since the announcement:
1) Apparently heavy focus on fanservice and the ballot.
2) Dec. 2015 project plan draft, severely hurting chances of a lot of characters.

Smashboard polls are probably skewed in favor of Isaac, but to write off his ballot performance completely is just as unreasonable, maybe even moreso, than taking it at face value. The guy did at least decently well, and from what we heard, was pretty popular in Japan, too. I actually wouldn't be at all surprised if Isaac beat out the likes of Midna, Lyn, and Waluigi given that some people would have given up hope on them since they already had roles on the game. The polling I've seen would suggest as much.

I'm not going to comment on the remarkably odd Assist Trophy removal from Smash 4 as I don't think I can theorize its removal without bias.

In short, people seem to forget that Isaac was a highly discussed name for both Brawl and Smash 4 and I don't think he would have gone unnoticed for Sakurai. In the past couple of years, his support has seemed to wane some, but I'm not even sure that hurts him if the project plan was set in 2015. The ballot seems to be playing a major role based on both the timing and the content we've seen so far, and Isaac did at least decently well in both the West and Japan. A lot of his competitors have already been confirmed as ATs, and others have been knocked out by the timeline. His series is in bad enough shape and his popularity skewed by hardcore forum members that I can't call Isaac entirely likely, but it's far from impossible. Save the zeroes for Yarne & Owain tag team and Lucas from The Wizard.

Want- 100%
Spent too long writing the chanc score, so forgive me for being brief here. I would love to see Golden Sun get more recognition, which had two very good and succesful games, and Isaac's moveset would be rad.

Dixie Kong
Chance- 60%
Has relevance on her side, and Diddy's moveset changes might mean something. She's popular, for sure, but her popularity isn't a match for K. Rool. Not sure if we'd get both, so that is a big hit to her chances. Still, she's likely.

Want- ABSTAIN
Dixie is deserving and I like her, but I can't bring myself to give her a score. I very much want K. Rool first, and seeing Dixie get in over him would annoy me a little, even though they absolutely both deserve to get it. The competition feels more bitter now for me since it sounds like there are few spaces for newcomers, so getting both is less likely.
I also have a severe fear that losing Diddy's tail attack could be pointing towards an Echo set up. I'd rather not see Dixie at all than get her in as a straight Echo, which is a role she could get permanently pinned into if she joined as one. She deserves far better, and she has enough popularity and importance that she'd get in a later game, anyways. I can't honestly give her the high score she merits, but giving her a low score is also unfair. I don't know.
Best case scenario- we get K. Rool and at most semi-cloned Dixie using her hair attacks and the like. I can give a 100% satisfaction score at that point.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Another round of rerates - what happened before...

Isaac

Chance: 10%
Want: 20%

Ooh boy, those characters I have to research before posting.

Isaac's pretty popular here on the boards, but it's not looking good for him. Yes, he probably had some support on the ballot, but one of the biggest hits against him is just his series. 3 games, an 8 year gap between 2 and 3, and now nothing since 2010. Dark Dawn also was not a blockbuster.

Yes, Isaac was represented in Brawl as an Assist, and has a music track. And by SSB4...only the music on a Metroid stage. Ouch. We know some of the more requested characters got some consolation prizes in a Mii costume...not for Isaac.

So: content dropped since Brawl despite a release in the interim, A stagnating series with an ok last game...

I've never played Golden Sun, so I really have no connection to the character. From what I understand, he's got Earth-bender powers? Could be cool and unique, but we've got someone who is sword-and-mage (Robin), and we've got someone who deals in sprouting trees (Villager).

But I will admit, his older look from Dark Dawn is pretty cool. Unfortunately, he's not playable in that one, but you instead get his carbon-copy son.

I feel like Isaac's one of the main characters we like to say did well on the ballot, but we really don't know for sure. It also seems that his support has wanted a bit over the years. And having lost content from Brawl doesn't help matters.

I'll have to drop his Chance to 5%

Tiny's Older Sister

Chance: 35%
Want: 15%

Last round, she looked like the clear winner out of Dixie vs. K.Rool. Now...not so much. A lot of international polls had them together before, and it seems like K.Rool's pulled ahead. There is a lot to be said about his (probably massive surprise to Nintendo) popularity, and I think she'll suffer for it.

She was a major character in the latest DK games, and she was planned in Brawl. Still, absolutely nothing came out of either of those.

My first major DK game (and only...I know, terrible Kutthroat. If only the Space Pirates knew I've really only ever played the first level of Metroid II) was DK64, so I really have no attachment to Dixie in the first place. Tiny was cool, but WTF did they do to her design? I liked her little. And Lanky was hysterical, and Chunky...ahh, great loads of fun.

This one's interesting. In most circumstances, she and K. Rool both deserve it. With fewer newcomers possible...they're in direct competition, which is a problem based on their overlapping fanbases

Here's about what it seems to look like on the boards: Most of the Kroc fanbase also supports either Ridley or Dixie. Now that Ridey's in, a lot of Ridley supporters have moved to K.Rool - not that extra support now will affect anything, but it's interesting to see. It does mean, though, that there wqas a lot of support back in the ballot era for both Riddles and the Kroc together, and Dixie was on her own a lot.

A lot of people are tossing the idea of Dixie as a Diddy echo. While that does a disservice to her, it could end up being a Wolf scenario - make Dixie a semiclone so most of the basic animations are done, give her her hair attacks and be able to make a character quicker. There is also the option of making Dixie a full character and making K. Rool a clone, but there are fewer characters (Bowser?) he could build off of easily.

It really comes down to what Sakurai is focusing on for the game. K. Rool has massive worldwide support from the ballot to now - Japanese Twitter was going on about "Where is K.Rool" during the Ridley reveal - but he's been MIA from everything for 10 years, and gond from the DK series even longer. Dixie has that relevance on lock, but her popular support does pale in comparison to K.Rool's - at least from the main speculation websites. People too young to remember K. Rool will of course only support the one they know.

I really don't know Dixie. My only DK game was DK64, and that was the one Dixie sat out (Tiny was cool though). K.Rool, however was prominent. As such, Dixie has always come off to me as Rule 63 Diddy so I never cared much. And with the two maneuvering into competition like this, I can't pretend that that's not affecting my want score. We'll likely be getting a DK rep this game if Sakurai and co. are going to be looking at fanservice, but as much as they don't favor the franchise since it's British at heart and not Japanese, I don't know if I can see both getting in without one of the two having the disservice of echo status. And as unfitting as it may be, my choice is clear.

Chance: 45%
Want: 0%

Nom: Smash Run x5

 

[Deleted member]

Isaac

Chance: 25%

The assist trophy wasn't in Smash 4 and we've yet to see it in Smash Ultimate, when we saw tons of others, so it's more of an inconclusive result at this point. After Sakurai completely snubbed Golden Sun in Smash 4 and the series hasn't gotten any love in a long time, unfortunately this franchise appears to be in a state of limbo. Dark Dawn is one of those awkward sequels that doesn't leave the door open for anything but a continuation of a tepid game or rebooting it a second time to continue Isaac's story.

On the other hand Isaac and Golden Sun are both popular. I wouldn't say they're incredibly popular, but enough to offset his irrelevance. I imagine he did decently in the ballot, enough that Sakurai might remember him and put him in the game. On top of that not seeing his assist trophy gives any hope for the character. If anything, the assist trophy should make a return when this is a game all about fan service.

Want: 55%

Isaac's not an interesting character, he's a very bland protagonist. However his moveset would be very fun. His hand that he can move around would be cool to control and his other magic is practically designed to be a fun Smash Bros moveset. His series would also make a welcome addition in terms of stages, ATs, music and items. It'd definitely be a good choice.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%

I'd say it's a coin flip if she makes a playable appearance and I could definitely see her become an echo, though it doesn't make the most sense. I never saw the potential for her to have her own moveset especially before Tropical Freeze added a token handful of new animations. There's the hair and some cartoon props that are never used to attack. She even missed out on DK64 so she doesn't have a gun or any of the other tacky abilities given to Diddy he uses in Smash.

As an original set I'd give her about a 10-20% primarily because K. Rool is far more popular. Though DK deserves two newcomers I find it hard to see two fully-fledged newcomers for it when it's gotten so little in the past. The most likely outcomes are K. Rool and a Dixie semi-clone/echo, K. Rool by himself and lastly a solo Dixie as an original moveset. I find it hard to see the last one happen just because Sakurai would find it difficult to make a unique set out of her and it makes no sense when K. Rool is right there.

Want: 25%

I never played her games and I don't find her appealing on any level. I'm mostly giving her a score this high because it's a deserved slot in a sense for DK fans to get her and K. Rool. I would not be satisfied if she got in alone as the DK newcomer. I can understand if you're a fan of the character and she definitely has earned her place especially given her newfound relevance. It'd be cool actually to represent practically all the DK games if you have the obvious 4 of DK, Diddy, Dixie and K. Rool. I don't think any DK fan could complain about that line-up.

 

[A Distant Demon]

Want:
Isaac 30%
This guy is a walking moveset to me. . .but nothing else unfortunately.

Dixie Kong 100%
With Ridley and no cuts out of the way, Dixie is probably my new most wanted (at least for reasonable requests)
Would love to see her in.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 45% - One of the most likely characters I'd say. She's been in recent Donkey Kong games, she's a popular character that surely did well in the ballot, she was considered to be a duo-character in Brawl alongside Diddy Kong, and she has plenty of source material to use in her moveset. Not to mention with clones being glorified as 'Echo' characters, she's already a likely candidate to be a Diddy Kong clone, though I'm thinking semi-clone or derivative of Diddy Kong is more likely.

Want: 10% - Would be nice to see the Donkey Kong series get some love, and I wouldn't object to see her, as long as she's not an Echo. My want would be higher for her if there wasn't the chance of her being an Echo.


Isaac

Chance: 5% - The best thing Isaac has going for him is how he did in the ballot, and I don't know if he did well enough there to warrant his inclusion. I think we'd be lucky to see him return as an Assist Trophy if I'm to be honest.

Want: 10% - I wouldn't mind Isaac, and I think he has plenty of potential behind him. Shame Project M couldn't finish their moveset for him, though. If we could see him in a finished state in action, my want for him would probably be higher. As it stands though, I won't be hurt if he doesn't make in on the roster, but it would suck for him to not even return as an Assist Trophy.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Dixie
Chance: 85% / Want: abstain
With echo characters being a thing she has an easy point of entry since I imagine it would take little effort to change Diddy's animations to swap the tail for the hair. She doesn't have to be an echo but the possibility just increases her chances imo.

Isaac
Chance: 5% / Want: 100%
Nothing has changed between the announcement and now. If anything he's even less relevant since the newcomers are confirmed to be less. 5% is generous and probably a little biased.

Nominations: Neku x 5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Issac
Chance: 5%
Even if Issac supposedly did well on the ballot, there are also others that also did well that aren't from dead franchises like Ashley and K.Rool. With limited newcomer spots which I think ranges from 4-7, I doubt Issac is going to snag one.
Want: 10%
I did play a GS game before but I didn't finish it, and I don't care much for Isaac

Dixie
Chance: 90%
With echo fighters being a thing, I can see Dixie becoming one and accompanying K.Rool in the game as new DK reps. Diddy lacks his tail attacks which of course Dixie doesn't have one, so it is clear to me Sakurai made this change so he and Dixie can play the same befitting of an echo fighter.

Want: 50%
She's cool and all, but I prefer K.Rool. Hope they can both make it in.

 

[skylanders fan]

Isacc
chance
fan demand charcter and a missing AT (even though he was not in smash 4). I just don't see him as a top fan demanded charcter ala King K Rool and Ridley but still have seen he has a decnt fan base
33%

want
meh not a huge want but not against
50%

dixie
chance
big charcter and a nintendo fan favorite. King K Rool would be picked first imo but she still could be in (could even be a echo)
50%

want
want King K Rool more and with a limited roster I just hope we get fan wanted charcters over others
60%

nominating incenoroar x5

predicting
crash at 25%
rayman at 25%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Anyone who gives Isaac a high score due to the ballot without taking into account that Midna, Krystal, Lyn, Waluigi are all ATs is being silly.

To be fair, Isaac probably did better than them. Maybe except Waluigi, but Sakurai clearly doesn’t respect Waluigi.

 

[harukaamami]

To be fair, Isaac probably did better than them. Maybe except Waluigi, but Sakurai clearly doesn’t respect Waluigi.

All 4 of them are considerably more popular than Isaac in Japan.

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Anyone who gives Isaac a high score due to the ballot without taking into account that Midna, Krystal, Lyn, Waluigi are all ATs is being silly.

TBF with Waluigi, 4chan at the time were using Spam Bots to inflate Waluigi's numbers and Nintendo was aware of this

Even IF Waluigi did well on the ballot, Nintendo could have just assumed the votes were spam

 

[GoodGrief741]

All 4 of them are considerably more popular than Isaac in Japan.

Source?

Even if they were, it’s a worldwide game my friend.

Even if they placed higher overall, it’s just as possible Sakurai simply couldn’t come up with movesets for them. Or maybe we are getting new Zelda and Fire Emblem characters and Sakurai doesn’t want to saturate.

Really, saying X can’t make it in because Y didn’t is pretty fallacious when you don’t know any reasons behind it.

 

[harukaamami]

Source?

Even if they were, it’s a worldwide game my friend.

Even if they placed higher overall, it’s just as possible Sakurai simply couldn’t come up with movesets for them. Or maybe we are getting new Zelda and Fire Emblem characters and Sakurai doesn’t want to saturate.

Really, saying X can’t make it in because Y didn’t is pretty fallacious when you don’t know any reasons behind it.

The only reason people think Isaac can make is the ballot; characters that are better-known and more popular and from living franchises didn't make it. With his lack of relevance, Isaac would have needed to take the top for the ballot to help him. Characters like Geno got recognizition from Sakurai so we can guess they had a good placement in the ballot; Isaac didn't really get anything.

 

[GoodGrief741]

The only reason people think Isaac can make is the ballot; characters that are better-known and more popular and from living franchises didn't make it. With his lack of relevance, Isaac would have needed to take the top for the ballot to help him. Characters like Geno got recognizition from Sakurai so we can guess they had a good placement in the ballot; Isaac didn't really get anything.

You assume that characters have to get something to have a fan following. You clearly haven’t paid attention to Smash fandom. Most characters have loyal fandoms going back all the way to Brawl. The Isaac supporters, as far as my observations tell me, are plenty, and if you think they won’t go out and vote for Isaac because they didn’t get some silly costume, I don’t known what to tell ya.

Still waiting for that source of yours, by the way.

 

[Diem]

I'm not going to use percentages for "chance" and "want," since there's no real way to quantify those values.

Dixie Kong

Chance: Likely (Echo Fighter)

Not popular or substantial enough to warrant her own full character, but popular enough to warrant an Echo Fighter slot. Of my Echo Fighter predictions, I consider her one of the most likely. With Donkey Kong in need of some representation, it's likely that, with the new EF designation, Dixie Kong will finally show up. If DK is to get any full character, it'd be King K. Rool.

Want: Indifferent

Don't care for Donkey Kong, but I know it's a popular request, so I wouldn't mind her being in, now that Metroid finally got Ridley, and will hopefully get Dark Samus, bringing DK and Metroid up to 3 unique characters and 1 Echo Fighter each.

Isaac

Chance: Extremely unlikely

A GBA series character that's just an Assist Trophy in Brawl, then completely absent from Smash 4? Crazier things have happened, but with how few new characters we're going to be getting in Ultimate, obscure characters like these are almost assuredly never going to happen.

Want: Indifferent

I'd say no, but I know what it's like to have a kind of obscure character you really want to get into Smash. Mine is Chibi-Robo, though he's probably several degrees less obscure than Isaac, but regardless, if there's some people who want Isaac in as much as I want Chibi-Robo, I wouldn't hold it against them if he got in. I got Ridley and might get Dark Samus in Ultimate, so I can live without my obscure pick.

 

[BluePikmin11]

We need to look into the history of clones in Smash before discussing Dixie. Starting with Smash 64, Sakurai was able to create the four hidden characters only with the fact that he was able to reuse some movements and model parts of pre-existing characters from Nintendo and possibly from Dragon King concept of gameplay as well. Although 64’s cast of characters were all unique, it was not until Melee greatly expanded on clones. With Melee, Sakurai added last-minute clones mid-way in development to pad out the roster. This was the only time where Sakurai would come up with clone ideas duringdevelopment. For Brawl, clone characters like Wolf/Toon Link were planned since the start. Note, for Brawl, Dixie was actually part of the cut character line-up based on file evidence, which indicates Sakurai already finding her merits to being a playable character.

For Smash 4, newcomer clones were not originally planned, but only the alternate costume to last-minute clones due to characteristic differences in attack function. The only notable way I can see new clones get in is through alt. costume to last-minute character or if they are clones planned from the start. This method is further enforced by the inclusion of Echo Fighters, of which the reasons of inclusion are most likely based on fan and ballot popularity. Dixie likely gained a notable degree of popularity at the time of the ballot alongside K. Rool to get considered. But whether she gets in as an Echo Fighter or as a semi-clone is entirely up to Sakurai and how much care he wants to put into making a faithful moveset to Dixie.

Sakurai could easily just slap in Dixie's Hair Flight and Bubblegum Gun as the only move changes and call it a day to do the minimum requirements of an echo fighter to please the fans. And with Diddy Kong no longer having tail moves based on his Smash Ultimate trailer, it feels more likely that Dixie will be in purely as an echo fighter than becoming a semi-clone. But maybe, Sakurai would be willing to make Dixie more distinct since Sakurai likely made a moveset for Dixie way back in Brawl's project plan, as movesets would likely been made for every newcomer at the time of planning. There is also the chance that Sakurai would not want to do further effort on new clones and focus on Echo Fighters being a wee bit distinct, but also feel Dixie being an echo fighter would be a disservice to the character, putting Dixie Kong in a middle-ground where she is excluded in Smash Ultimate altogether. Either way, I feel Dixie Kong has a good shot of getting in.

-------------

I do not have much faith that ballot popularity will make Sakurai create exceptions for characters unrepresented Nintendo IPs that are currently dormant. I could see exceptions made for dormant characters from already established IPs in Smash like Geno, Skull Kid, and K. Rool, but not new IPs. I personally think that Sakurai had already seriously considered Isaac before with Brawl and Smash 4. Brawl was Isaac's opportunity to get in before Golden Sun fell in reputation with Dark Dawn. If Sakurai did not think Isaac would be a good choice during those times despite being very popular and having solid moveset potential, I do not see how Sakurai would change his opinion on the character now. I do not expect ballot popularity to convince Sakurai to add Isaac for Smash Ultimate.

-------------

x5 Hanafuda character

 

[harukaamami]

You assume that characters have to get something to have a fan following. You clearly haven’t paid attention to Smash fandom. Most characters have loyal fandoms going back all the way to Brawl. The Isaac supporters, as far as my observations tell me, are plenty, and if you think they won’t go out and vote for Isaac because they didn’t get some silly costume, I don’t known what to tell ya.

Still waiting for that source of yours, by the way.

You completely misread my post. Geno's costume happened after the ballot was finished; it means that Sakurai recognized his popularity from the ballot.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Dixie Kong
Chance - 75%
She's very likely but I think she comes across two problems. First is King K. Rool probably got more votes overall on the Ballot which the game probably took a lot of inspiration from concerning it's project plan date. It will be up to Sakurai to decide who is more worthwhile as I doubt Dixie didn't have her fan base as well.
Secondly is I do think she could be a semi-clone with more moves revolving around her hair, but I don't think we will see any none echo clone characters this time around (otherwise why even brand them that way). And yet I don't think she'd make a good echo of Diddy, but maybe Sakurai does.

A lot of this comes down to if the DK series can get two characters or if Dixie can be made an echo. Still a very likely character in my oppinion though.

Want - 50%

Issac
Chance - 40%
The ballot helps but I don't think Sakurai will just pick anyone from the ballot. Not only that but I have a gut feeling he didn't even do so hot on the Ballot seeing as he didn't even get a Mii costumes. Eh.

Want - 25%
Eh. That 25% is really just for his fans that are still holding on.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I know it's no longer Bandana Dee's day but I won' ignore this.

Pretty sure Bandana Dee's spear extends when attacking in the Kirby games. He has range despite his stubby arms. Also Corrin uses that mimic spear for 5-6 moves and it's not like we can't have more than one spear user anyway.
We don't have any elite mooks on the roster yet because none are as significant as Bandana Dee. Atleast when it comes to Smash specualation.
I think you missed my point. I wasn't arguing that Bandana Dee is just as iconic or popular as Yoshi. I was saying the Yoshis don't differentiate themselves from one another. In Yoshi's island/Story a red Yoshi has the same abilities as a green Yoshi and a blue Yoshi, yet you somehow saw this as an attack on Yoshi's iconicness.

Yeah, I was mainly just talking about R.O.B in the context of Subspace.

So you're saying that despite being members of a species they have enough things going for them to have a playable status? How is Bandana Dee supposed to be an exception?


Here

''Sales aren't important unless when it comes to Mario''
Guess we should fill the roster up with 10 more Mario newcomes. Half a billion sales, right? Also you're right, if Rosalina was a character from an original IP, she would actually be important to her whole franchise. She wasn't when it came to Mario.

You think HAL wouldn't be able to think of a character to replace him in recent games? What was stopping them from having Meta Knight or Dedede or goddamn Gooey be playable in Rainbow curse instead of Bandana Dee.

Well guess we should actually look at the trophy list from Smash 4 to look for newcomers after all. Sorry Geno. Sorry Isaac. You guys are out.
I wouldn't look at this description in the light I do if it wasn't for the timing. The roster was finalized back in 2015. Sakurai wouldn't put in Bandana Dee without HAL knowing about it. This just leads me to beleive HAL knows something we don't.
What does Dee truely have going against him then? It's not the ''generic enemy'' argument again, is it?

Bandana Dees day is over. No further discussion.

 

[Opossum]

Dixie Chix

Chance: 88%
I think she is easily one of the most likely newcomers. Tropical Freeze hoisted her back into the limelight and she'd be a great grappler.
Want: 100%
Slowing foes down with her Bubble Gum Gun so she can follow up with a hair grapple? Gimme.

Binding of Isaac

Chance: 1%
I'm being generous here. He ded.
Want: 45%
He'd be really neat. Geomancy and phytomancy alongside swordplay is neat. Though I'd prefer a different Ragnarok-using newcomer.

Nominating "Reinhardt gets a trophy" x5

 

[SethTheMage]

Dixie Kong

Chance: 75% - We are running out of possible newcomers, and she's popular, relevant, and easier to make than most other candidates. She wouldn't work well as an Echo for a couple of reasons, and she has a unique attribute that sets her apart. I can easily see Sakurai making her a Diddy semi-clone, and it wouldn't take too much away from representing her fully. The only thing I see standing in her way is the limited space we have left; Sakurai says we don't have a lot of newcomers this time around due to revamping vets and bringing back everyone. Due to her not being as popular or unique in aesthetics/gameplay as some other candidates, as well as being less easy to make an EF, she might be seen as lower priority and could miss out. However, I still believe she has a good shot, especially after the news that the project plan was completed in December 2015, meaning that Xenoblade 2 and ARMS will likely not receive any newcomers and that Tropical Freeze was more relevant.

Want: 100% - Y'all have heard my spiel enough, so I won't elaborate further.


Isaac:

Chance: 10% - I might be a little harsh here, but I think his time has passed. He and his series aren't super relevant these days, and I can see Sakurai passing him up.

Want: 65% - He'd definitely be a unique magic user, something I feel the roster could use more of.

 

[VexTheHex]

Isaac
Chance 3%
A dead series that isn't quite retro and suffers from higher popularity in West than East? A series that loss it's representation between games? A character that's popularity is grossly exaggerated? Ya... no.
Want 20%
Not sure we really need another generic swordsman protagonist. We got the FE crew, 3 Links, and Shulk. With limited space, let's get someone who will stand out better from the rest better. I may love him if he gets added cause he does have some potential, but I really don't see how he is relevant, popular, or iconic enough in his current position.

Dixie
Chance - 49%
She's more relevant than King K Rool and could wind up a echo. I'm not sure if we will get 2 DK reps, and she has competition.
Want - 64%
I'd like her to have hair attacks and add to the DK series. I'd rather her be unique > clone > echo though. I think I'd take King K Rool over her though as we already have another chimp, but a large crocodile (alligator?) is something we don't have.

Nominationss 5x Monster Hunter

 

[RouffWestie]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 99%
Has all the reasons to be in. Would be an easy sell to the Switch audience.
Want: 100%
----------
Isaac
Chance: 1%
He's been gone for years, seems to be forgotten by Nintendo, and already had a hard time making it into the previous 2 Smashes.
Want: 95%

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Dixie Kong
Chance: 65% - I still think K. Rool has the edge for a DK newcomer, but as Daisy, Ganondorf, and Lucina show Smash doesn't always stick to canon when making movesets; ergo she could easily get in as an echo fighter or semi-clone of Diddy.
Want: 50% - I could take or leave her; but as long as K. Rool gets in first, I'd be fine with Dixie.

Isaac
Chance: 10% - His series is dead. All he has as a pro is his sheer popularity, which, while nothing to scoff at, is still far from a guarantee. Isn't that right, Chrom?
Want: 85% - I'm down to get Isaac in the game.

Nominations:
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Not popular or substantial enough to warrant her own full character, but popular enough to warrant an Echo Fighter

Damn, if Dixie isn’t popular enough to warrant a full character, what’s left for the rest of us?

You completely misread my post. Geno's costume happened after the ballot was finished; it means that Sakurai recognized his popularity from the ballot.

You’re still making assumptions as to why Sakurai did things. We know Sakurai knows of Geno’s popularity, is a fan himself, and wanted to make him playable as far back as Brawl, so saying Geno got a costume due to the ballot is neglecting everything else Geno has going for him.

And anyways, why do you assume that just because a character didn’t get a costume, they did poorly in the ballot? Neither Lyn nor Midna, characters you mentioned as having supposedly done better than Isaac, didn’t get anything, and neither did Ridley, who definitely did better than anyone else. You know who did though? Barbara the Bat. Guess she must have performed exceptionally then.

 

[Organization XIII]

You know the biggest problem I see with most people's reasoning is they are thinking in present terms. Yes, Golden Sun has been gone 8 years in the present but back in 2015 and 2014 when the ballot was around the last game was only 5 and 4 years old respectively, which isn't that long. He had plenty of support and his lack of AT made him look like a prime ballot candidate lighting a fire under most Isaac fans plus GS has actually sold better than series currently on the roster. the GS series has been unfortunate with timing which is sadly why Isaac never made it but now with the limited number of spaces and popularity being important you all are very much underestimating him. In fact all we need to see if Isaac will make it is K Rool. If he happens Isaac is pretty much a lock because relevance is the only real thing Isaac doesn't have and K Rool has been gone longer than him.

 

[TimonBoyd]

Crash for Smash!!!

 

[Diem]

Damn, if Dixie isn’t popular enough to warrant a full character, what’s left for the rest of us?

I mean, I haven't played a single Donkey Kong game, so I'm not an expert, but isn't her only significance that she's Diddy Kong's partner in one of the DKC sequels? Diddy Kong as his own character makes sense, given his prominence as DK's partner in the original DKC, and Diddy Kong Racing, so he's the Luigi of the DK franchise. Unless Dixie Kong has some big role I'm unaware of, I'd think that King K. Rool would be more appropriate as a whole character.

 

[Troykv]

Isaac

Isaac

Chance: 15%

Right now, the only thing going for him its his fanbase; isn't imposible, but doesn't look like someone with priority unless something weird happens.

Want: 55%

The extra 5% is because I liked the results that SSF2 gives us about creating a moveset for him

Nominations: Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

The Ballot having a bigger influence can help him... losing even more revelancy and having a bigger competition for the roster doesn't.

I'll just give him the same scores because of this overlap.

Chance: 15%
Want: 50%

----

Dixie Kong

Dixie Kong

Chance: 50%

She is that kind of characters that doesn't have a special reason to be selected in Smash, but the circunstances around her makes her a very likely choice... so, she is essencially a coin flip.

Want: 40%

I found her... a bit plain.... but hey, I would be happy for her fans.

______

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x8
Celica (Fire Emblem) x2

I would a bit against the idea of she appearing in Smash as a unique character because how random they would have to go with her moveset; but I feel a bit bad about thinking like this some time ago considering the new context... specially because the idea of Diddy in a drag is quite sad.

Chance and Want: 50%

___________________________________

Predictions:

Crash: 16.5%
Rayman: 29.5%

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Crash for Smash!!!

Excuse me but Crash's day is tomorrow and this isn't really the thread for posts like these. I think you want to go here.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I mean, I haven't played a single Donkey Kong game, so I'm not an expert, but isn't her only significance that she's Diddy Kong's partner in one of the DKC sequels? Diddy Kong as his own character makes sense, given his prominence as DK's partner in the original DKC, and Diddy Kong Racing, so he's the Luigi of the DK franchise. Unless Dixie Kong has some big role I'm unaware of, I'd think that King K. Rool would be more appropriate as a whole character.

Dixie Kong is the main protagonist of Donkey Kong Country 3, and is also playable in Tropical Freeze, which is the most recent game. She definitely has credentials.

 

[Eagle]

Isaac
Want: 100%
Isaac's moveset potential makes him incredibly unique. The Golden Sun games were definitely some of my favorites on the GBA and because of that he has become my 2nd most wanted. I've wanted him before Brawl came out and it was great to see that I was no alone. It was actually very surprising to see he had a decent fan-base that has persisted for a while. I really feel that this is his last shot and I hope he makes it. The GBA had tons of gems and I would love to see a character represent this even if it's not Isaac.

Chances: 10% or less
The few things going for Isaac are: some popularity in the ballot, unique fighter, and being from the underrepresented GBA-era. Unfortunately, this doesn't amount to a whole lot. Competition is very stiff this time 'round with likely 7/8 newcomers or fewer and having to compete against other characters with similarly decent fanbases (Midna, Waluigi, Lyn) all of which are de-comfirmed so why should Isaac fare any better? I think that those characters come from franchises that are already well-represented and I think they had their own hurdles with better choices for unique fighters or echoes (I think Impa has a better chance to be an additional rep for Zelda as an echo fighter, for example). From what I've read so far, I think that putting his chances at 50%, a coin toss, is extremely optimistic. Putting his chance at 0% is also pretty illogical. Are we to say that Isaac's chances of getting in are the same as insert-random-Nintendo-NPC-here? The decent ballot support should count for something.


Dixie
Want: 50%
Thinking about Dixie, I'm surprised I don't want her in Smash that much because DKC3 was one of my childhood games with some fond memories. I'm indifferent to her being in probably because making her a 100% unique fighter means that some other 100% unique fighter didn't make it in instead. An echo fighter would be fine in that regard, but as any Dixie fan will tell you, it wouldn't do her justice. I think Dixie is perfect for a semi-clone, taking everything from Diddy and using her hair for grabs, attacks, and recovery (ripped from DK maybe?) If she were to be a semi-clone like this then I'd want her 100%.

Chance: 75%
I'm pretty confident that King K. Rool is getting in this game and so I don't think Dixie is likely to make it in as a totally-new fighter. DK has been long deserving of new representatives so I think that a new semi-clone or echo fighter is pretty likely to happen. Because of this, I think Dixie may have to compete with Funky Kong simply because Dixie doesn't work strictly as an echo-fighter as easily as Funky does and Funky has some popularity as well (though it's difficult for me to gauge how different they are.) The fact that Diddy's attack has changed to not include his tail also bodes well Dixie as some kind of clone.

 

[harukaamami]

You’re still making assumptions as to why Sakurai did things. We know Sakurai knows of Geno’s popularity, is a fan himself, and wanted to make him playable as far back as Brawl, so saying Geno got a costume due to the ballot is neglecting everything else Geno has going for him.

Geno definitely placed much higher than Isaac in the ballot, though. Like, why should Isaac get in over Geno is Sakurai himself likes Geno and Geno had a better ballot placement?

And anyways, why do you assume that just because a character didn’t get a costume, they did poorly in the ballot? Neither Lyn nor Midna, characters you mentioned as having supposedly done better than Isaac, didn’t get anything, and neither did Ridley, who definitely did better than anyone else.

In fandom, fanart and online presence, Midna compeltely eclipses the entire Golden Sun franchise. You can go to Pixiv, DeviantArt, wherever you want.

You know who did though? Barbara the Bat. Guess she must have performed exceptionally then.

You're aware that Barbara's wig, which wasn't a full outfit, was available from the start, right?

 

[Diem]

Dixie Kong is the main protagonist of Donkey Kong Country 3, and is also playable in Tropical Freeze, which is the most recent game. She definitely has credentials.

Ah, in that case, I can see the possibility of her having her own moveset. It's still probably more likely that she'll be an Echo of Diddy Kong, but I'm more willing to believe the possibility of her having her own slot.

 

[Sid-cada]

Isaac

Chance - 1.5% - Whie Isaac still enjoys popularity from die-hard fans, that's about all he has. Sadly, with his franchise being considered dead, it does not look good for him. Unless he really was extremely popular in the ballot, I don't see him happening. I'm not changing my score.

Want - 75% - Earth powers? Cool. I think he'd do a better job than Lycanroc.


Dixie

Chance - 50% - She's popular and relevent, but it's hard to say if she will get in with K. Rool being the elephant in the room. K. Rool was popular, surprisingly so, and ended up with offical agnolegement in the form of a Mii costume. While he is supper popular and could get in, Dixie as a potential echo cannot be ignored. It's also hard to say if one will prevent the other. I think her chances are rougly a coin-flip at this point.

Want - 45% - I would prefer K. Rool, but I can deal with her.


Prediction

Crash - 2.45% - He's way too late.

Rayman - 13.53% - I think he's likely.


Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[Impa4Smash]

Dixie Kong
Chance 60%
I think she has a really good chance. DK needs more reps. She'd be an easy semi-clone of Diddy, just with some different hair-based moves. But the competition is tough for Ultimate, and if DK only gets 1 new rep it's definitely K Rool.

Want 100%
My favorite Kong! She deserves to be in.

Isaac
Chance 40%
I don't have a good feeling about Isaac. Golden Sun isn't very relevant anymore, and I'm not sure how popular he is compared to the likes of K Rool, Ashley, Geno, Bandanna Dee, and even Dixie. But who knows, maybe Sakurai will surprise. Hey, maybe Nintendo even has a new Golden Sun in the works!

Want 50%
To be honest, I never really got into Golden Sun, but a lot of people seem to want him and he could have a unique move set, so I would not be opposed in the slightest. But if he didn't make the cut I'd also be okay.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Isaac:

Chance: 35%

The chances of Isaac are very slim unfortunately.. and that's not how I like to see things. He was heavily requested in the ballot however. So there's at least a little hope. He'd be very unique as well, and Ultimate seems to adress fan favorites. With Ridley in, his chances have grown a little. But I only expect King K.Rool to really be positively affected by this reveal honesty. We might never know however, Isaac could very well make it in but it's by no ways likely at akk,

Want: 100%

Love Golden Sun. My favorite games on GBA, and last year finally got to play Dark Dawn. Such a shame this franchise seems dead, especially with such a open ending. </3 His unique abilities on top of the potential of having a revival of the franchise is why I want Isaac extremely badly in Smash Bros. His moveset would also offer a lot, with his Earth Psynergy and all. Despite his rather generic appearance as typical blonde spikey haired JRPG Hero, he has a lotttttt of potential.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 65%

Dixie's chances are looking solid, but I've always said it. And I'd like to point out the fact that she WOULD NOT be a Echo to Diddy. It really wouldn't make a damn sense. Shes's popular, relevant, has a whole lot to offer, and DKC has been hugely neglected since Diddy came to Brawl- so it's about time that got adressed. King K.Rool also potentially being in doesn't hinder her in the slightest. Fire Emblem and Mario got 3 new characters last time (counting Dr.Mario for convenience) and Zelda got 4 in Melee. Ultimate got Pichu, Ivysaur and Squirtle back... there's no need to withold DKC from the same kind of attention, especially since that attention has been hugely lacking, and DKC is easily the next big franchise compared to Mario, Zelda and Pokemon. Time to set things right Sakurai!

Want: 100%

Helicopter Spin alone justifies her as a newcomer. She has a lot to offer, is one of my favorite characters and was introduced in my favorite game ever; Donkey Kong Country 2 Diddy's Konquest. I missed her a LOT in Smash 4, especially since everyone thought she was just about one of the most likely newcomers. The fact she was not in Smash 4 makes me way more vocal of her support this time around!