Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Pacack]

K. Rool has more proof of his popularity around ballot time because of various polls conducted during the time where Ridley was deconfirmed. That doesn't necessarily mean K. Rool is more popular, but there is more to document it, such as the regularly reposted source gaming poll, the time where his popularity mattered.

Ridley's popularity, along with that of the Metroid franchise, is almost exclusively western. IIRC, Sakurai said Ridley was added because of "demand overseas", meaning the US.

Interesting that Bayonetta wasn't the first place in any of these.

Online forums =/= all of the Smash Bros. fanbase.

 

[mynameisBlade]

No, they were not added due to relevance.

They were added because they're veterans. Just like Dr. Mario, Mewtwo, Roy, and Lucas in the last game. Sakurai apparently just decided that bringing back characters from previous games was what he wanted to do. Sure, odds are that the ballot played a role in that, but it could have just as easily been that Sakurai wanted to bring back Character X, Y, and Z and decided, "you know, we already have the movesets for these characters finalized and whatnot, so let's just get the rest of them."

There's no concrete evidence that popularity is the only thing being considered. Ridley could very well be the exception given how loud the outcry was for him.

I still don't see Ridley being as popular as King K. worldwide, especially after Sakurai had previously said Ridley was "Too Big". (He lied but that statement still put everyone's focus on the next most wanted 1st party character who just so happened to be King K. apparently) As far as I am aware Japan doesn't care about Ridley one bit.

Let us get a character like K.Rool or Ashley that Japan actually wants. Since we got Bayonetta being the "supposed" #1 in Europe and Ridley being put in due to Western outcry. K.Rool is beloved in Japan as well as here. If he isn't in the base game I'd be very surprised. K Rool has topped online polls since 2014 til the present day and has more going for him than most like to admit. Smash brings back forgotten characters all the time.

He would actually be the perfect addition due to how much flack he has gotten from fans alone. Seemingly about 50% of the entire online Smash community sees him as unlikely so revealing him would shut a lot of people up. Not revealing him would only increase the outcry. So if DK is denied again in this game, I want to see Samurai and Nintendo dodge all the DK outcry as well as an explanation as to why, like we got for Ridley in the last game.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Interesting that Bayonetta wasn't the first place in any of these.

Online forums =/= all of the Smash Bros. fanbase.

Well, Bayonetta was the first place "in Europe", and this is a Japanese poll.

You asked for "citations" to back K. Rool's popularity, online polls are the obvious way to go for that, unless you happen to know of any real life censuses taken for Smash newcomers.

 

[Deleted member]

King K. Rool

Chance: 80%

K. Rool's the last Mii costume to be added to Smash 4, right alongside Inkling and I feel it's a safe assumption he performed well on the ballot, otherwise why feature him as one of the final Mii costumes. To me that just says that K. Rool was one of the ballot's winners. Not taking into account the tone of Smash Ultimate's definitive roster I'd already give K. Rool a healthy chance.

After seeing Ridley and the general themes behind Ultimate I'd say K. Rool is at the very peak of his likelihood. He's highly requested and has been for over a decade, coming to a head right at the best moment possible (ballot) and many of his competition have already been confirmed as ATs or what have you.

The only thing holding K. Rool back is that Nintendo has been hesitant to use him for years, but they did put in the Mii costume, and I think we might all be a little gun shy given what happened in Smash 4 to K. Rool. If you look at it objectively it's hard to fault the argument for K. Rool. Many of the arguments are hurt by him getting a Mii costume... that wouldn't happen if relevance or anti-K. Rool bias were a serious issue. The major barrier in my opinion is limited slots.

Want: 100%

K. Rool's been my most wanted newcomer for some time. In the Brawl days I was mostly for other villains like Wolf or Skull Kid and didn't even know who K. Rool was, after being educated on the character he's so clearly the best choice to represent both Donkey Kong and heavyweights/villains in general. The case for K. Rool is so good in fact that it converted a huge amount of fans to his side for the ballot. Hopefully Sakurai acknowledges how cool this guy would be in the game and his great potential for a fun moveset.

Captain Toad

Chance: 1.9%

Largely have to agree that Toad's newfound prominence is a big negative for Captain Toad. Surely, surely if Sakurai wanted Captain Toad in the game he would remove or at least minimize the use of regular Toad. Instead he's elevated him to a full on grab/throws mechanic and let him walk around on stage making it incredibly awkward to see Toad and Captain Toad in the same match. This is far worse and not fixable in the same way as Alfonzo, I'd say even Waluigi has a better chance of getting in than Toad, at least you can turn off an assist trophy if he's in the match, and I'd give Waluigi like a 5%.

Want: 0%

Never liked his game, the character or Toads. Sticker Star and Color Splash made me actively hate the whole Toad gimmick. They're to a point they're as annoying as Illumination's Minions in Paper Mario. It'd also be really frustrating to see a form of Toad get in with an original set (he has zero echo potential) over Waluigi.

Ashley

Chance: 1%

Wario Ware was not that popular in the first place, it was just a fad and the latest game, Game & Wario, was a bomb. Wario now has his shoulder bash back so Sakurai is at all trying to acknowledge the hatred of a purely Wario Ware Wario set. Ashley's popularity didn't seem to amount to much on the ballot, based on fan polls. Ashley's potential isn't anything special either so this hinges on Sakurai having an epiphany that he loves Ashley or there's a plethora of support we don't know about.

Want: 0%

I never played Wario Land or Wario Ware much, however I've grown to view the Wario Ware games as an absolute leech on the Wario Land games, now completely forgotten about by Nintendo and far superior games. Ashley is a pretty random character to have caught on and her fanbase () seems to be full of very interesting individuals that I'd find hard to relate to as far as aesthetic preference. Unlike Toad however, an assist trophy would make any lick of sense for Ashley, I wouldn't be that against her getting an AT.

 

[Kotor]

King K Rool

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

That mii costume is pretty noteworthy of actually being based on K Rool's classic appearance. The team went out of their way to create and use that form rather than taking the K Rool trophy (which is his modern look), and turn that into a mii costume. Only other notable rival is Dixie, but I could see both getting in.

Impa

Chance: 15%
Want: 0%

The one exception to the Super Smash Bros. Rulebook of Assumptions statement of "One-shot Zelda characters have no business being playable in Smash. Spinoff appearances don't count." Design wise, Impa is either an old lady, or a young woman. The only times she was the latter was in Ocarina of Time, and Skyward Sword (remember Hyrule Warriors doesn't count). Her best bet would be as a Sheik echo fighter. But she doesn't get in, I wouldn't be upset.

Ashley

Chance: 40%
Want: 20%

The lack of her Assist Trophy being spotted does do her favors, but maybe she was simply never put into the build if she does retain that role. Japan is also crazy about her, with Ashley appearing on a bunch of merch and even used to advertise games she's not even in. She even got a Mii costume like K Rool. Of all the Warioware characters, how did Ashley take off?

Captain Toad

Chance: 25%
Want: 25%

Yeah, Toad was given a larger role of defending Peach (and Daisy), but considering how many Toad clones were roaming around in Sticker Star and Color Splash, I'm not sure if it could hinder Captain Toad that way. Jumping shouldn't be a point against him because we have Olimar who never jumps in Pikmin. If we humor Captain Toad added in as an Assist Trophy character and take his "can't jump" mechanic to the extreme, he'd be pretty easy to KO.

Chrom

Chance: 15%
Want: 40%
Looks like we don't have a choice!
Sakurai saw him as being in-between Marth and Ike, Viridi sees him as an Ike clone (did Japanese Viridi say the same thing?), this fandom doesn't want more FE characters added into Smash. Chrom's absence at E3 could easily be dismissed by Robin not one of the playable demo characters. Robin's final smash kinda works already with the fast pace approach the final smashes are going now. Could Chrom work as an Echo Fighter of Ike? Possibly.

 

[Arcanir]

King K. Rool
Chance: 50%
I'm not sure on him. On the one hand, he's a hugely popular character among the hardcore fanbase, and while that's a limited sample size compared to the audience as a whole, it has led to character additions and changes before. Additionally, he was acknowledged through his Mii Costume, which is curious because he's one of the few characters chosen for it that didn't have a recent appearance (ex. Inklings) or assets to use from other sources (ex. Flying Men), and said costume is based on his classic Rare design. That could mean Sakurai is aware of his popularity and responded to it, which is good since it may mean he's now on his mind and could take another look with another game on the horizon.

However, there are also a couple barriers to him. As much as I don't like it, he has been absent from his series for quite a long time and it doesn't seem to be changing in the near future (though hopefully it does), which may cause Sakurai to overlook him due to that lack of recency. Additionally, with the suspected limited slots, he does stand more at risk of getting outprioritized by other characters, particularly if they have a more balanced mixture of popularity, iconic status, and recency. Due to that I put him at a coin flip since his major merit is a notable one, but it's one that may not carry him depending on what Sakurai's valuing in his roster picks. If Sakurai still looks at recency, he may be in trouble, but if popularity does have more value here, then I think he'll join the roster alongside his arch-nemesis DK.

Want: 100%
He's now my most wanted character aside from maybe one. I enjoyed the character back in DK64 and I loved his boss battle in DKC2, so he's one of the Nintendo villains I have a lot of fondness for, and one of the characters I'd be very happy to see in the game.

Impa
Chance: 30%

Since Echo fighters are a new concept, I'm going to be using these two points for now when rating characters as possible options:

Spoiler: Echo Fighters

1) Ease of cloning, The point of this is to include characters that are easy to add and don't take too much development time.
2) Popularity, there are many plausible choices for Echoes, but looking at the ones we got (Lucina, Dark Pit, Daisy) all of them were characters that at least had a good amount of popularity in their franchise/possible requests. So I think the idea here is to add characters who are wanted, but can't be developed with the amount of time and resources they have, at least for right now based on what we know.

Now with that said, Impa is interesting in that she's possible for a non-clone newcomer and as an Echo character. For the former, while she lacks a consistent design (she switches between her old and young forms, with the former being more used) she does carry a decent amount of popularity with her and she did appear in recent titles, which does give her a leg up over a number of other characters. As a possible Echo, she checks off both points I mentioned. She's similar enough to Sheik that it would be feasible to give her the moveset with a few tweaks, and she's popular and recurring enough that she could be visited in such a fashion. Thus she's a valid option for both, though whether she'd be prioritized as either is dependant on which design Sakurai would go for (if he thinks the older design is more notable, that may hurt her), how he'd prioritize the character as a whole (since there are other options for both Zelda characters and Echo characters), and how he'd approach her potential moveset (would she be unique or would he move her to a later addition as a clone).

Want: 60%
I'd be fine with her, but I'll admit I do prefer the other Zelda characters to her.

Ashley
Chance: 50%
Honestly, even without the AT being MIA, I think she's more likely then we give her credit for. While she's just another popular character in the west, she's very popular and notable in Japan. She's been used in advertising, has one of the most (if not, the most) badges out of any character in the Badge Academy game, she's cameoed outside of her game such as with Daigasso! Band Brothers P, and she also had a Mii costume (though this one could've used assets from her AT). As a character, she gets a lot of mileage and is arguably Warioware's breakout character, and for that reason I think she has a solid shot of getting into the game.

Want: 50%
With that said, I'm ambivalent on her.

Captain Toad
Abstaining as I don't know the character that well.

Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5

 

[Pacack]

Let us get a character like K.Rool or Ashley that Japan actually wants. Since we got Bayonetta being the "supposed" #1 in Europe and Ridley being put in due to Western outcry. K.Rool is beloved in Japan as well as here. If he isn't in the base game I'd be very surprised. K Rool has topped online polls since 2014 til the present day.

First of all, we have absolutely no reason not to believe them when they say that Bayonetta was #1 worldwide. Creating a conspiracy about rigging the ballot doesn't help anyone.

Secondly, online polls are inherently skewed towards the older demographic, which, again, does not represent the whole Smash Bros. fanbase. We cannot claim anything other than that King K. Rool is popular with this particular demographic. To make the claim that K. Rool is #1 worldwide of remaining requests is something we have no proof for.

Well, Bayonetta was the first place "in Europe", and this is a Japanese poll.

You asked for "citations" to back K. Rool's popularity, online polls are the obvious way to go for that, unless you happen to know of any real life censuses taken for Smash newcomers.

To reiterate, my point is that there are no reliable polls for this data. The only poll that got a significant enough portion of the fanbase to make conclusions is the Smash Ballot, which we know nothing about the results of except that Bayonetta was first place.

Smashboards is, like the majority of places online, an echo chamber. We cannot extend our experiences here to the entirety of Smash's fanbase.

The very fact that Bayonetta surprised us all should be evidence enough of that, but if it isn't, then ask the casual Nintendo fan of today who King K. Rool is. If they're under 25, they likely don't know.

 

[Esquelen]

King K Rool
Chance: 40%
If Sakurai put Ridley by his fans, King K Rool may be next, the problem is that unlike Ridley, King K Rool has not been in a Donkey Kong game for years, so there are chances that it will not be included to the roster.

Want: 55%
I'm not interested, but I would be happy for your fans.

Impa:
Chance: 50%
Maybe as Echo character of Sheik? I know the character very little, but I think it comes from Hyrule Warriors, are there really possibilities for a character that appears only in non-main games?

Want: 0%
I'm not interested.

Ashley
Chance: 20%
If she appears as a fighter, it is for her fans, Wario Ware does not need two representatives. and it gives me that soon we will see her as Assist Trophy.

Want: 80%
I love her in Smash, I hope I'm wrong and we see her as a playable character.

Captain Toad:
Chance: 30%
I think there will be no more Super Mario characters but surely I'm wrong, Toad appears "attacking" in one of Peach's moveset, I think that will be as close as we can see a Toad fighting.

Want: 25%
It would be funny to see it, but I do not want more Super Mario characters.

Chrom
Chance: 25%
Chrom is still popular in Fire Emblem I think, so it has possibilities, but I do not think we'll see more Fire Emblem characters, there will be few newcomers characters, so I think they'll add saga characters with few characters or new franchises .

Maybe Echo character of Ike maximum.

Want: 0%
No more Fire Emblem, please.

 

[Erimir]

We have all of one unique newcomer announced. Why is everyone assuming that Ridley's indicative of the entire roster??

They're not. The clear difference in how this roster seemed to have been handled so far in contrast to how the roster was introduced during all the previous games is why people think this roster will be more oriented towards fanservice than ever. This is the first game where Sakurai went out of his way to prioritize bringing back every single veteran because he felt that was what players would want as opposed to even Melee where Ness was initially planned to be replaced. Unlike the Initial reveal of previous games, there is no Ice Climbers/ZSS/WFT-style curveball newcomer character that was revealed for this game with every single newcomer character revealed so far being popular in some way, shape or form. It doesn't mean every single character included will be popular but you still cannot deny this game has been handled differently from all the other games so far.

I agree with TBW

It's not just Ridley that's evidence of extensive fanservice, although he's the biggest one (pun not intended)

1. Bringing back every veteran, including Young Link and Pichu, and the Mii Fighters, and to a lesser extent Pokemon Trainer and Snake (who would've been easy to justify leaving out)
2. Bringing back so many stages, including N64 classics
3. Giving some characters certain flavorful move set/aesthetic changes (most obviously, Ganondorf getting to use his sword)
4. Adding even more alt costumes (Wedding and Builder Mario, Meta Ridley, Galacta Knight, female Pikachu, two versions of Ike, etc.)

And specifically, changes to cater to the Smash hardcore!
5. Adding Battlefield stage forms
6. Reportedly adding a stage hazard toggle! (yes!)
7. Bringing back directional air dodging
8. Emphasizing changes to the game engine to speed up play in general, including nerfs to certain defensive moves (roll-spam is now more easily punished)
9. Competitive features like altered damage (altered balance?) for 1-on-1 vs. multiplayer
10. more damage precision with decimal point percent display
etc.

It's not hard to see that they're aiming for a different segment of the fanbase than they were with Smash 4 or especially Brawl. They're not making Melee 2.0, but they've shifted the balance back towards that group.

Now, does that mean every newcomer character is going to be a cult fan favorite like Ridley? No. But I'd still say their chances should be considered higher than they were with what we knew before E3.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Oh right, Impa! Better get on her, as I have some stuff to say.

Impa
Chance: 60%
Wow, I never thought I'd say Impa had this high a chance before but she's an easy echo character with a decent size fanbase and since Zelda is no longer severely handicapped by being roped to a single game, Impa could get in as Skyward Sword, Hyrule Warriors or Ocarina of Time versions as a Sheik echo.

As sad as it is, I don't think she'll be the unique Zelda fighter Hyrule Warriors made her into, unless they decide to make her a clone/echo of Cloud or something ridiculous.

Also hey listen look; Zelda series got some love! The triforce trio have unique moveset alterations, Young Link is back and Toon Link is still there too.

Want: 100%
Hyrule Warriors was my most played game during the Wii U period(with only Treasure Tracker and Smash coming close) and of all the cast I really took a shining to Impa to the point she instantly became a favourite. She's a mainstay in the series, she's pretty damn cool, her reincarnated forms give her lots of different skills she COULD have used as a unique fighter, but I'll take her repping the true Sheikah as a Sheik Echo if I must.

My issue with Sheik, being a one time character, can be undone by Impa easily and I can finally get my damn bodyguard and royalty double battle on. Still gonna pray for Captain Toad and Bandana Dee so I can do this for two other royals too...

Nomination:
With Meowth officially out; Slippy Toad X 5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

K. Rool:

Chance: 60% - I feel more positive about K. Rool than last time we rated him, maybe Sakurai has made me a bit too hopeful with Ridley's inclusion and the unbelievable fan service that was bringing everyone back, but I really do believe that the intention with this game is to include as many of the fan favorites as possible, and K. Rool's popularity is obviously very well documented. Of course it remains to be seen how important relevancy is for newcomers in this installment, all three that have been revealed are obviously relevant, but they've also got the star power to match, so it's hard to tell whether Sakurai has gotten more lenient in that regard than he was with Smash 4.

Want: 95% - I can only rate characters' want percentage against how much I want other potential characters, and with my two most wanted making it in (Ridley and Ivysaur) I'll be giving out higher percentages from now on. Another reason why K. Rool's rating shot up is also that Ridley's inclusion only made me want him even more, not only because I can shift my focus and not be tunnel visioned into one character anymore, but also because both fanbases have been very tightly knit for years now, so I really want both to get their payoff. I said it in the K. Rool thread, but you can't have the ultimate Smash Bros game without K. Rool, that would be the one glaring hole in the roster imo.

Impa:

Chance: 50% - As a unique fighter I don't see Impa being too likely, but with echo characters being a concept now she's one of the frontrunners for it.

Want: 50% - She'd be alright, but I haven't ever really had an opinion for or against her in the Zelda series, I'm completely neutral towards her.

Ashley:

Chance: 35% - Slightly better than the last score I gave her, but only really because she hasn't been deconfirmed yet while other newcomers I deemed more likely have been. That she was missing from the demo build isn't necessarily a sign that she's broken away from her AT status though, she's hardly the only one who was MIA.

Want: 20% - I don't and never have seen the appeal, I'd much rather Skull Kid as a dark magic user.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 10% - I said it yesterday, but if any form of Toad was playable I imagine they'd try and decrease Toad's role in Peach's moveset, and not do the opposite and actually increase it. To me that's a pretty clear indication that they likely haven't planned for him to be playable.

Want: 50% - I don't care about Toad at all, but I'd be happy for his loyal fanbase, and he is undeniably an All-Star, so I certainly wouldn't be against it either.

 

[ForwardArrow]

King K. Rool
Chances: 55% (But goes up to 90% with DLC)
I know he's really requested, and after seeing Ridley my faith in him showing up is restored... but it really has been so, so long since he had a major role in anything, despite the Donkey Kong franchise going. It makes me worry they don't value him as super important to the DK franchise so while I do think we'll get a third DK character almost certainly, I'm wondering if Sakurai will just settle on a low effort Echo character to get in some more advertisements. But yeah, you know, he still has a lot of popularity and Ridley really set the tone of the newcomer reveals for this game, which makes me think he has a good shot. I also think that, with absolutely no old characters to bring back for DLC, when that rolls around if K. Rool isn't in the main game he should almost certainly make it in. The Mii Costume and seeing him do well on a lot of random internet polls and whatnot is a pretty convincing argument that after a certain number of newcomers they really can't avoid him anymore. There can only be so many more third party crossovers.

Want: 100%
I have a lot of Donkey Kong related nostalgia, and I do think K. Rool is a lot more fun than Bowser in his platforming titles. He has a wide variety of stuff to draw from for his moveset and I tend to find heavyweight fighting styles more satisfying. Plus, it'd be really great to get Ridley's "partner in crime" in as the other big reptile who people have rallied since before the Brawl days. That and "I want more villains" in general pushed him pretty high for me so being told he was an actual realistic choice and then failing several times has really built up some strong desire to see him in the game after all this time.

Impa
Chances: 7.5%
I just don't really see it. Impa certainly appears in a bunch of Zelda games and has her share of story role, but she's not remotely iconic to the franchise and never really provides memorable moments in the same way as even the one-time villains do. Her recurrence makes me think she has some shot, but I feel like she won't get in over more requested options or advertisements that would serve to generate more hype for the game or more hype for the game they came from respectively.

Want: 10%
I mean she's not interesting, but it would be nice to get a Zelda newcomer who isn't just one of the triforce trio in some variation or another, and one who isn't some Breath of the Wild exclusive deal either as I really dislike that game. I'd take Zant or Ghirahim long before her but, recognizing those will probably never happen, this is a tolerable choice that would just not help sell the game for me, though admittedly after the reveals we got I'm kind of already sold.

Abstaining on Ashley, not familiar with her at all and never really followed the logic on whether she'd get in or not.

Captain Toad
Chances: 5%
I really do think that a Toad being one of Peach's specials will keep any form of Toad from playability due to how awkward it comes across as to have the same character be a subordinate in some other moveset. With him being played up in even more of her moveset now, I think that actually lowers his chances if anything. But I refuse to underestimate Nintendo's willingness to advertise garbage.

Want: 0%
If you couldn't tell from that last statement, Captain Toad's inclusion in the game would actually make it worse somehow, as far as I'm concerned. Not enough to significantly hurt it as we already have so much, but like, really if he gets in its just depressing to think it could be almost literally anything else.

 

[Pacack]

I agree with TBW

It's not just Ridley that's evidence of extensive fanservice, although he's the biggest one (pun not intended)

1. Bringing back every veteran, including Young Link and Pichu, and the Mii Fighters, and to a lesser extent Pokemon Trainer and Snake (who would've been easy to justify leaving out)
2. Bringing back so many stages, including N64 classics
3. Giving some characters certain flavorful move set/aesthetic changes (most obviously, Ganondorf getting to use his sword)
4. Adding even more alt costumes (Wedding and Builder Mario, Meta Ridley, Galacta Knight, female Pikachu, two versions of Ike, etc.)

And specifically, changes to cater to the Smash hardcore!
5. Adding Battlefield stage forms
6. Reportedly adding a stage hazard toggle! (yes!)
7. Bringing back directional air dodging
8. Emphasizing changes to the game engine to speed up play in general, including nerfs to certain defensive moves (roll-spam is now more easily punished)
9. Competitive features like altered damage (altered balance?) for 1-on-1 vs. multiplayer
10. more damage precision with decimal point percent display
etc.

It's not hard to see that they're aiming for a different segment of the fanbase than they were with Smash 4 or especially Brawl. They're not making Melee 2.0, but they've shifted the balance back towards that group.

Now, does that mean every newcomer character is going to be a cult fan favorite like Ridley? No. But I'd still say their chances should be considered higher than they were with what we knew before E3.

I appreciate your response, and I can understand your reasoning. Please understand that my frustration is not directed towards everyone who notes a shift in direction. It is, rather, directed at those who are using this reasoning to claim that K. Rool is nearly a lock when:

A. It is unlikely that K. Rool is the most popular character request among the entire Smash fanbase, especially given his obscurity with the younger demographic.

B. This "change" in direction for character selection may have been for the E3 reveals specifically. E3 watchers are a group that lines up much closer with the type of member who might frequent online forums, and that makes E3 an ideal place to reveal a character like Ridley.

C. Changes like classic stages, tweaks to veterans, new options for stages, engine changes, and precise damage showcase a different type of fan-service than character selection does. Ultimately, the people who care about these types of inclusions are a smaller subset of the overall Smash Bros. fandom. The people who care about which characters are included is a much broader group, similar to that which would have voted on the ballot. It's likely that the former fan-service is for the competitive community, while the character inclusions are meant to be for the more broad group. I'm pretty sure that more people in the casual sphere wanted Pichu and Squirtle back than are asking for K. Rool in the hardcore sphere.

 

[mynameisBlade]

King K Rool may not make it in. I am fine with that either way, BUTT I would assume most if not all of the hardcore Smash fans would like to see DK get more representation in anyway possible or the smell of hatred toward the franchise being in Smash will keep escalating. Sonic got in due to the hardcore in Brawl. Sonic was at the top of Sakurai's most wanted for a new Smash game pre-Brawl. Megaman (not even being relevant in his own company, Capcom) was at the top most wanted polls online before Smash 4. Crazy enough we ended up getting both of them in the next respective game.

King K. Rool

Chance: 75%
Even though he is so popular among the hardcore Smash fan base, we still cannot consider him a shoe-in due to Nintendo dropping him awhile back for some reason..

Want 100%
He has been my most wanted since we got Diddy in Brawl.

 

[Capybara Gaming]

King K. Rool
Chance: 95% - This game is all about fanservice, and size is no issue. The most requested character amongst the Smash fanbase is about as close to a lock as I can expect.
Want: 100% - I've always loved the croc because I unironically adored the DKC cartoon movie my mom bought me on VHS as a kid. Not to mention, I've played some of the classic DKC titles and he's definitely a fun villain.

Impa
Chance: 90% - I can definitely see her making the cut this time as an Echo Fighter of Sheik. She's important to the series, a recurring character, and considering the emphasis of echo fighters (having an official name) in the direct, I'm guessing she'll make the cut.
Want: 90% - I love the Zelda series, and because an echo fighter takes so little time to develop, you can't really be mad when they show up. Impa's an obvious choice for one and the last character the series seriously is lacking.

Ashley
Chance: 75% - She's got the popularity, the potential, and she's MIA from the assist trophies we've seen so far. Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it, but Ashley's got enough tricks up her sleeve to be a serious contender and the fanbase to back her up.
Want: 75% - She's fun. I couldn't complain seeing the cute little witch show up.

Chrom
Chance: 30% - Only showing up as an Echo Fighter if he does, and even then I don't see the likelihood of him showing up, Sakurai's acknowledged the series' oversaturation in Smash, and his only current relevancy is in spinoffs. His game may have saved the franchise, but it's already got two representatives, and Chrom's chance already came today - in Robin's Final Smash.
Want: 10% - I don't mind him if he's an Echo, but otherwise we still have way too many Fire Emblem characters anyway. It's time to stop.

Captain Toad
Chance: 30% - Roster space is severely limited this time, and Mario already got a newcomer. I don't think we're going to get another.
Want: 40% - I really would have preferred Waluigi, and the Toad species does already have representation with Peach and Daisy already. Cool as the little guy is, and unique as he could be, roster space is too limited this time for my tastes.

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Pacack]

Captain Toad
Chances: 5%
I really do think that a Toad being one of Peach's specials will keep any form of Toad from playability due to how awkward it comes across as to have the same character be a subordinate in some other moveset.

Captain Toad and Toad are not the same character. This has been stated by the director of Treasure Tracker. You're entitled to give whatever ranking you think is fair, but you ought to consider that when considering Captain Toad's chances.

 

[Zema]

K.Rool:
Chances: 80%
Ridley getting in is easily the biggest indicator that even K. Rool can make it. He's easily one of the most popular characters that have yet to join the game, and with DLC's I'd be surprised if they didn't add him at some point.

Want: 55%
I kind of want him, leaning towards yes. He's not boring and the DK franchise needs a villain rep. I also think he'd be cool to see rendered as a character.

Impa:
Chances: 5%
I don't think she's popular enough to warrant adding to the game, but maybe they will add her because of her presence in Hyrule Warriors.

Want: 80%
I think she's one of the more interestingly designed characters from The Legend of Zelda, actually. I absolutely adore her design in Hyrule Warriors as well. I'd love to see her in the game.

Ashley:

Chances: 0%
She's going to be an assist trophy again. Far more popular characters have been reduced to smaller or similar roles.

Want: 30%
She's alright. I don't really get the "potential smash character" feeling from her, though. Then again, R.O.B. exists.

Captain Toad:

Chances: 0%
I don't think there's any chance he's getting in. If he was in the game, he'd be an alt costume for Toad, not the other way around, and we've already seen Toad as part of Peach's animations.

Want: 0%
Not a very interesting choice at all.

 

[RouffWestie]

K. Rool
Chance: 90%
He was given a mii costume, very suddenly too, so I feel like they know he's very highly-requested. It's very likely he would be added to please a lot of fans.
Want: 100%
PLEASE
----------
Ashley
Chance: 85%
Very popular in Japan, and previously had the opportunity to be an assist trophy and a mii costume. It's very likely she would be added to please a lot of fans.
Want: 2%
My feelings haven't really changed on her. She doesn't introduce a unique spin on her archetype. She's a generic, uninspired, by the numbers, witch, and I don't see the appeal in her. That's just how I feel about her.
----------
Captain Toad
Chance: 80%
His recency helps and he is the star of his own Mario spin-off franchise. A smidgen of doubt comes from the possibility that his series won't be seen as important enough for a playable character to the developers.
Want: 30%
Never played the games, but I do really like the non-generic Toads of the Mario franchise. Particularly the ones from Mario Party Advance and Paper Mario 64 & TTYD.
----------
Impa
Chance: 15%
I still think she's important enough to be an assist trophy.
Want: 0%
From what I've heard from the ones who've played the demo, I got all I ever wanted out of the Zelda series this game.
----------
Chrom
Chance: 1%
Want: 0%

I don't know what reasons he'd have to be chosen.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Phew, this thread is moving really quickly today.

So...

The Kroc

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

I feel terrible rating anyone over about 20% after knowing how large the roster already is, but the Kroc has a lot going for him. If we assume that this roster is fanservice central, it makes sense that characters other than Goku who rated highly on the ballot would be considered first - and various internet polls have placed K.Rool at or near the top in the US and Japan. Yes, internet polls mean nothing, but there is a lot of noise surrounding the King, which may translate into success for him. I think twitter (or whatever social media) in Japan during the E3 presentation was filled with "Where's K.Rool?" after Riddles' reveal (and who wouldn't want those two together?)

He's got a lot of positives besides his popularity. One, he's a villain, and two, he's a heavyweight, both of which the roster is light on (pun intended). Beyond that, the DK series has been neglected for a while despite DK being #02 in the new numbering system. Now that Ms. #04 has finally gotten her major villain in, we've got 6 of the original eight with their respective villains (or 7 if you want to count Yoshi as part of Mario or give him BJ as his villain). We also can't really claim that we have a heavyweight zoner in the game either (I guess BJ?).

However, he does have a few hits against him. Namely, his lack of relevance to the series lately. The last few DK games have dealt with forgettable enemies-of-the-day, and the Rool's last appearance was in a baseball spinoff, which means he's almost a nobody to younger audience members outside of the Smash community. True, it seems that popularity overrides relevance this round (see ALL vets returning), but we only know about the feelings of the people on this site and others who want to sit and talk about Smash all day. Second, Dixie is now maneuvering into a competitive position. They do both deserve to get in, but if we have limited newcomers, I don't know if two DKs would be in together. There is the thought that one could be an echo and allow the other to be a full newcomer, but which one? Dixie only nominally resembles Diddy - she could swap out the peanut popguns for her sister's feather bow and add a helicopter move in place of a rocketbarrel (sorry, I don't know Dixie at all, the only DK game I've played was 64 so I know Tiny better), but it's stretching. Meanwhile, there is a heavyweight reptilian on the roster already, if you change Bowser's fire breath to animate as a blunderbuss instead? The big question would be whether one will get in and the other as an echo, or will only one make it (or neither). Or will they surprise us with a lot of DK love?

For me, K.Rool is my only remaining realizable wanted character (If they announced Dovahkiin I'd be in absolute heaven, but sadly I can't imagine a universe where that would happen). He has the popularity among the Smash community to support getting in, and he'd make for a unique character archetype unlike most of the characters we rate. I don't think there are any locks anymore after we all called Takamaru an absolute lock, but K.Rool is about as close as I'd put it, along with...

Wicked Witch of the Schoolyard

Chance: 50%
Want: 35%

Again, Ashley's got a HUGE following, especially in Japan, and the Wario series is a bit lonely. Ashley's gotten promoted with each game so far from a sticker to an assist, so it seems likely she could make the jump. Also, since Ridley pretty much is a gift for the western fanbase, Ashley would be a gift mostly for the eastern. Ashley's also been acting as a bit of a franchise mascot outside of her own game. I hear the Arcade Bunny is a huge Ashley fanboi, and she's plastered all over there as well.

Moveset potential is a definite as a witch with a staff, and her design is quite appropriate for the game. Like K.Rool, Ashley's seeming like one of the more likely characters based on all of the popularity arguments.

I wouldn't be opposed to the little witch. She's not one of my most wanted characters, but I do feel she deserves it. Still, I can't imagine going out of my way for her.

The Fungus Among Us

Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

I can't really agree that Captain Toad's chances have gone up by having Toad more active in Peach's and Daisy's movesets. It's very easy to consider all Toads to be basically the same, even if one has a unique piece of headgear and a weapon in his hands. Yes, he's got his own games, but a lot of characters have their own games.

I'm not going to go on about not jumping simply because 1) it's Smash, not a puzzle platformer, so of course he will, why is this a question, and 2) Sakurai has shown he can make movesets work. I'm never going to doubt a character based on whether or not someone came up with a moveset for him, but I will for some characters whose moveset requires much more originality. Captain Toad has tools to hit and dig, so that's not an issue, and he'd be able to jump no problem in this game (it's not like making him jump will 'betray the character' like rezising others did...)

But for me...he's just not that interesting. Sorry. Nothing about the little guy grabs me, he seems awfully generic, and for that reason I'm out. I'll give a 10% for the fans, but I'm not one of them.

Echo Character of the Day

Chance: 25%
Want: 50%

This one is interesting. Impa's always been one of the most recurring Zelda characters, and Chrom's fanbase has been sore since Captain Falcon beat him to a pulp in Robin's trailer. I really can't see either of them making it on their own merits now - Impa's not been a young fighter since SS (HW though), and Chrom's day was back with Awakening. But if echoes (aka very cloney clones) are a thing and are now acceptable, this could well work. Impa is a very easy Sheik reskin, and Chrom would make a good Ike version.

I don't think we'll be getting too too many echoes since they are in essence clones, but since they were given a name, I can see us getting a few (please don't bloat the roster with cloney clones though...). Both of these seem like some of the easier echoes to make as well.

Even though both series are well represented (and very cloney to begin with), I wouldn't mind terribly. Zelda has really been hurting for new blood, and a new non-Marth Fire Emblem could be nice. Especially since Impa and Chrom both have a lot of relationships with current cast members, they'd fit well. Also, both have been snubbed (Impa by virtue of being the most recurring exclusion from the Zelda series, and Chrom's trailer disconfirmation), so I have a bit of pity for the fanbases. However, I wouldn't want much time wasted on either either.
Sidenote: English is a funny language - both those words are pronounced differently.

Phew, long post...

Nom: Tails x5

 

[ForwardArrow]

Captain Toad and Toad are not the same character. This has been stated by the director of Treasure Tracker. You're entitled to give whatever ranking you think is fair, but you ought to consider that when considering Captain Toad's chances.

Oh I knew that coming in, but the fact that their model is the same is enough that I still think it should block him. I may have phrased it poorly in conveying that though.

 

[Troykv]

It's time for the re-rates

K. Rool:

Chance: 40%

I don't want to be overconfident, but K. Rool is in a very interesting sittuation right now, one that would help him now.

Want: 70%

Not a true fan, but hell, this guy has a lot of charisma and fighting potential xD

Nothing specially had changed IMO, he's still in this weird sittuation..., maybe the fact the game being more fanservice would help him.

--

Captain Toad

Chance: 50%

Essencially same sittuation that Bandana Dee, nothing more to say.

Want: 50%

Eh... I'm neutral with the Kinoko-zuku anyway.

The concept would be fun, but I'm not emotionally invested in the idea, the score are also the same.

---

Ashley

Chance: 30%

She isn't the highest priority because she represents a franchise that isn't exactly consider major, but she is very popular and it would work to create a very interesting mixing the bizarre nature of WarioWare and her magical stuff.

Want: 60%

I have liked this girl since I know her, so I would like to see her in the game.

Now we're dealing with something it would actually change; the change in focus and the fact Ashley is such a popular character will help her chance, I think she should be closer to K. Rool now.

So I will change the old scores to 40% Chance and 70% Want.

---

Impa and Chrom: Abstain for Chance, the Want is 50% for Impa and 25% for Chrom.

Two characters that seems it will ended up being part of the Echo Fighter thing, Impa would be a long waited non-Triforce character.

______________________________________________________

Predictions:

Decidueye: 25.5%
Chrom: 22.6%
Rex/Pyra: 17.5%
Simon Belmont: 41.5%
Dark Samus: 34.5%

______________________

Nominations:

Leon Kennedy x5 (Because I don't have idea what nominate now)

 

[Pacack]

I'll jump back in here later. I'm going to get too worked up about how absolute people are about these ratings. All I have to say is that 95% and 0% are both ludicrously absolute to have as predictions.

None of us know for sure what will happen, and to claim such confidence is exceedingly presumptuous.

 

[Sid-cada]

Captain Toad

Chance - 30% - I do think it might be possible that Toad's increased presence in Peach and Daisy's move set might be compensation. While not enough to disconfirm him, I am less confident in his inclusion, so I'm taiking 15% off compared to my last rating.

Want - 80% - I still feel like Toad should be in. It's hard not to argue how iconic the guy is, and it kinda feels like he should have been added in already.


King K. Rool

Chance - 45% - Due to the increased fan service, I do feel like K. Rool is a bit more likely than before. Still, nothing actually happend to directly increase his chances, so perhaps this is just misplaced optimism. While I do feel like he could be a bit more posible, I don't feel comforable giving him more than 5% more than I did last.

Want - 75% - I'm not as connected to him as many others, but I do think he's a great concept that should be in. Both moveset potential and his fans have won me over.


Impa

Chance- 50% - Echo characters have changed the way we think about clones. Completely upending my previous thoughts, I do think though that Impa is most likely out best bet for an echo character. While I have no idea on criteria, she does seem like she hits all the marks.

Want - 50% - Eh. Don't care for her, and I would prefer a Toon character, but I guess she's alright.


Ashley

Chance - 20% - Okay, she hasn't been seen yet as an assist trophy. In my mind, there still is a strong posibiblity that she hasn't been seen yet. Untill then, I say I can increase her score by 2.5%

Want - 35% - I'm a bigger Mona fan. I think there are better mages than her, as well.


Chrom

Chance - 15% - Probably the best bet for a Fire Emblem to recive a new echo. That said, I'm unconvinced that Fire Emblem will recive a new character (at least untill DLC).

Want - 40% - Eh... not really. I didn't like him playing my Awakening Game, and I think there are better echos out there.

Nominations

Nihilego X5

 

[Camc10]

K.Rool
Chance - 90%
It definitely feels like the ballot will play a role, a K.Rool is probably the biggest character wanted in Smash (especially since Ridley got in) and with the fanservice, he has a good shot of being one of those few. now about DK getting a rep, with the slight change to Diddy, i could see Funky and Dixie being Echos of DK and Diddy, and if they are, i dont feel that would chance K.Rool's chances of getting in.

Want- 100%
I actually loved him in my main team of Mario Sluggers on Wii

Chrom
Chance - 50%
Id expect Ike to have a Chrom color in the full game if he gets the Little Mac treatment, but the fact they said they want FS's to be flashy and straight to the point, and that they've made no showing of Robin's FS, despite it being exactly what they want, give me hope.

Want - 80%
I'd love to see him get his day and not end up like Waluigi.

Ashley
Chance - 70%
She is relevant, Warioware Gold is a thing, she's the obvious 2nd rep of Wario, and Sakurai must have seen the amount of Badges she had in Badge Arcade.

Want-80
Crusade have opened my eye on want a moveset for her could look like.

Captain Toad
Chance - 60%
He's definitely the most likely Mario newcomer with Waluigi out of the picture, but whether Mario gets another rep (very possible imo) or Geno comes in (Not a pipe dream anymore) are other questions.

Want - 50%
Don't hate him, but don't really care for him either.

Impa i don't feel like i can rate as i'm not sure how people can see a Non-Hyrule Warriors Impa as a Shiek clone.

 

[Gerrothorax]

King K. Rool
Chance: 50%
He had a Mii fighter costume in Smash 4 and hes still a highly requested character but he still hasn't appeared in any game for over decade and the the DK series has been largely ignored in Smash Bros.
Want: 80%
He'd be pretty cool. Smash is sorely lacking in the villains and heavyweight department and Rool would add another character to both.

Chrom
Chance: 35%
We still haven't seen Robin's so his fate is still up in the air plus he's a fairly popular character and he'd be an easy echo of Ike.

Want: 0.5%
No thank you, already enough Fire Emblem characters as it is.

Ashley
Chance: 60%
She's missing from the assist trophies we've seen and she's very popular and has the potential for a unique move-set.
Want: 100%
She's as cute as a button, definitely my most wanted newcomer now that Ridley's confirmed.

 

[culumon]

Impa
Chance: 30%
Prrrroooooobably the most likely Zelda newcomer, through seniority alone. I'm not sure about her chances in the base game as a wholly original newcomer, though, given how few we're getting. I also think the fanbase as a whole is overestimating the importance of "echo fighters" - they seemed to me to be more of a fun way for Sakurai to market clones that's more palatable to casual fans, rather than any indication that we'll suddenly get an oncoming wave of them... but yeah, at a push (and if she did well enough on the ballot), I could maybe see Impa as a Sheik clone. Sure. Why not.

Want: 80%
...but GOD do I hope that's NOT the form she takes, because not only would Zelda be the last character from her series standing that's wholly unique, but because Hyrule Warriors Impa is easily one of my most wanted newcomers. THE most fun character to play in that game by far, and the one that comes to mind when I think of it (despite the likes of Lana and Linkle being created specifically for it). Dismissing the prospect of Hyrule Warriors representation on the grounds that it's "just a spin-off" seems foolhardy to me - it was a HUGE release for Nintendo last gen, making its way onto both Wii U and 3DS, getting THE MOST post-release support of any of their releases (with the possible exception of Splatoon), and now it's on the Switch. If this game is, in part, repping the Wii U era, then glossing over Hyrule Warriors would be a massive misstep to my eyes. Plus her moveset would be so, so easily translatable, and you'd actively have to TRY to make it not fun as hell. C'mon. She's got an obscenely huge anime sword. How can you not want that? The only reason she's not at 100% for me is because of the concept of her being a Sheik clone, an idea juuuust conceivable enough to scare me. Pls no.

 

[StormC]

I don't have any reason to believe Dixie, let alone Funky (who would be a non-factor when development started) to be "competition" with K. Rool. If K. Rool doesn't get in, it's because Sakurai doesn't want him in, not because he put in a Dixie echo fighter and thought that was "good enough" for DK characters even when K. Rool trounces her (or any other DK character) in popularity.

K. Rool

Chance: 60%. I'm much more optimistic than I was post-DLC but I could see a situation where Ridley is the big "fanservice" character and the rest are normal picks; I don't think it's likely with the roster's current trajectory, but it's possible. I've always been of the mind that Ridley is (or was) a harder sell to Sakurai than K. Rool and I still hold that belief. He survived the initial onslaught of Assist Trophies and was certainly on Sakurai's mind in 2016 after the costume. He would be a super heavyweight which Ridley doesn't appear to be, and we haven't gotten a new one since Brawl.

Competition is evidently tight this game, however - and they might save him for a potential DLC candidate to entice people to buy a package or something. Things are pretty much the same as always for him, but Ridley has made it obvious that Sakurai is not playing by his old rules as much anymore. I am still of the belief that K. Rool is the most likely Nintendo newcomer at this time, outside of echoes.

Want: 100%. My most wanted Smash character ever - put him in and I quit Smash speculation. It's that simple.

 

[harukaamami]

Just a minor thing that might not mean much since Kid Icarus actually has the NES logo instead of Uprising logo and Bayonetta has specifically the Bayonetta 2 logo; in Japan, they upgraded the Wario Ware (Made in Wario) logo for the one they're using in Wario Ware Gold (Made in Wario Gorgeous):

http://dic.nicovideo.jp/oekaki/63405.png versus https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfqO8A3UwAERYj_.jpg and in the presentation: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfqO7xCUEAAX7bW.jpg

 

[Kitty-chan]

King K. Rool

Chance: 85%
Maybe a bit bias here, but I truly think the glorious king is gonya make it this time nya! He's incredibly popular, beautiful, likely did very well on the ballet, got a mii costume (which honestly I think only increased his chance by 5% mew), beautiful, and with Ridley in the game nyao, his size is unlikely an issue nyao nya~

Want: 100%
I've burned down cities, sacrificed mil-nyo billions, had blood rituals every night since I was nine and a half, and sleep with a giant plush crocodile every damn night for this character nya. I kinda want him a little nya~


Impa

Chance: 65%
With the idea of echo fighters being in the game, Impa has a better chance nyao for sure nya~ Namely imo her Skyward Sword nyappearance, since it's been made clear that a Zelda characters design doesn't have to follow the most recent game nya.

Want: 70%
It's a Zelda character and I'm fine with the idea of her possibly being added as an echo for Sheik nya~ While it's unlikely to be her HW design nyao, her SS one isn't too bad nya~


Ashly:

Chance: 70%
If this game truly is leaning on being more fanservicy, then Ashly chances have improved quite a bit due to her being very popular in Japan nya. She has nyot been seen in a AT yet, so the possibility exists nya!

Want: 97.5%
She's freaking nyadorable and I wanya hug her to bits nya. Seeing her playable in smash would be very nice nya~ We didn't Waluigi so at least spare her, Sakurai nya!


Chrom

Chance: 45%
With Echo fighters being a thing nyao, he's nyo longer impossible nya. However, a third Awakening rep just seems unlikely in my eyes nya.

Want: 25%
I am completely nyalright with the idea of him joining an an Echo Fighter and I'll be fine with any nyu FE nyucomer nya. However I'd much rather wanya see nyanother FE character that's from a different FE game nya.


Captain Toad

Chance: 30%
His chance has come tumbling down with the inclusion of regular toads being nyapart of Peach's and Daisy's moveset nya. This could be Sakurai's way of giving Toad fans at least something rather than nyothing nya. Captain Toad is a unique Toad however and is fairly popular nya. The little guy has his own game too nya! So he's nyot of of the picture just yet nya!

Want: 60%
I like him nya~ He's cute and would fit nicely nyalong with the other Mario characters nya~ Plus toad heads remind me of atomic explosions nya.


Nyominations
Tingle: x5

 

[Camc10]

Just a minor thing that might not mean much since Kid Icarus actually has the NES logo instead of Uprising logo and Bayonetta has specifically the Bayonetta 2 logo; in Japan, they upgraded the Wario Ware (Made in Wario) logo for the one they're using in Wario Ware Gold (Made in Wario Gorgeous):

http://dic.nicovideo.jp/oekaki/63405.png versus https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfqO8A3UwAERYj_.jpg and in the presentation: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DfqO7xCUEAAX7bW.jpg

I noticed the Bayo 2 since Nintendo doesn't have the rights to Bayo 1, but outside of only Bayo 2 stuff being in Smash, yeah, i wouldn't put this into consideration much.

 

[NeonBurrito]

King K. Rool

Chance - 50%

I've done a lot of thinking about the guy since yesterday, and I think he has a pretty solid shot.

Since we've seen that Smash this time around is going to be a lot more fanservice-based ("Everyone is here!", tons of returning / remade stages, Ridley playable), and he clearly had a lot of support during the ballot era in both the west and the east, and remains a popular pick to this day. There's also a lot of clamor for a DK newcomer, especially after none joining in Smash 4, and K. Rool would fit that bill well. His only real competition holding him back is Dixie Kong, and since the introduction of Echo Fighters and the removal of Diddy Kong's tail-based attacks, it seems like she's more likely to (unfortunately) be a Echo Fighter or a semi-clone rather than a fully fleshed out character.

The one big thing standing in his way is of course, his lack of relevancy. However, with the large emphasis on fanservice this time around, I'm not really sure if that is much of an issue anymore.

Want - 90%

Now that the Inklings are in, King K. Rool is my most wanted newcomer.
I love the Donkey Kong Country series, and I would easily say that Donkey Kong Country 2: Diddy's Kong Quest is one of my favorite games of all time. Having some more Donkey Kong Country representation would make me extremely happy. Plus, with Ridley's inclusion, might as well complete the duo at this point, eh?

Also, I want to recreate this:

Impa

Chance - 45%

The two big things that previously stood in Impa's way were:

• The idea that "every Zelda character has to have their designs come from the same game"
• She'd likely be too similar to Sheik / a clone of Sheik to be considered

With Smash Ultimate, both of those are out of the window. With a Zelda newcomer being a very commonly requested thing within the Smash community, it seems like Impa now has the best shot, by a long shot.

She could very easily pull her look from Ocarina of Time, Skyward Sword, or Hyrule Warriors to be suited for fighting, and appearing in a Skyward Sword or Hyrule Warriors form would give some representation to some more Zelda games not yet represented to boot. Even in the case of her not becoming a unique fighter, the idea of her becoming a Sheik Echo Fighter seems incredibly likely, just because of how similar their fighting styles are, being heavily Sheikah-based.

Chance - 60%

She's cool. In terms of a Zelda newcomer, I'd prefer general revamps for the pre-existing characters, a proper Ganon, Tingle, or Urbosa, but I certainly wouldn't be against Impa. She's more than capable of using different kinds of magic and weapons over the years, so they could easily get super creative with her if they wanted.

At the very least, I hope she does get some sort of BotW + Hyrule Warriors combo design and replaces Sheik, while keeping her moveset. It makes absolutely no sense why Sheik still sticks around, considering OoT came out over two decades ago now, and how the transformation gimmick between Zelda and Sheik isn't a thing anymore.

Ashley

Chance - 70%

Out of all of the Assist Trophies missing from the E3 demo, I feel like Ashley's is probably one of the most eyebrow-raising, along with Dark Samus and Isabelle.

Once again, considering how Smash Ultimate seems to be extremely heavily based around fanservice, there's certainly no better way to appeal to Japan by including one of their most requested characters. She remains a very relevant figure as well, considering her numerous Badge Arcade badges and appearing right next to Wario on the boxart of WarioWare Gold.

Want - 60%

She says she is the coolest girl you'll ever meet, and while I doubt that, she is a pretty cool character. We don't really have a full, 100% mage character in Smash, and especially not a witch-esqe character. Plus, there's also the fact that she's super cute, and her theme song is fire. I like cute things and music. Sue me.

However, if we're talking WarioWare, I'd honestly rather have Jimmy T. and the Legendary Cat Dancers.

Captain Toad

Chance - 25%

I think his chances have dropped quite a bit, but not exactly for the reason one may think. I hardly think that Toad's increased role in Peach's (and now Daisy's) moveset changes anything about his chances, considering Toad and Captain Toad are considered different characters, but because of the increased emphasis on fanservice.

Considering the the increased emphasis on fanservice, I feel like Sakurai no longer feels like he has to go with something more relevant, so both Paper Mario and Geno now provide a much larger threat to his chances, in terms of being a Mario newcomer, due to their seemingly increased amount of requests on a worldwide scale.

Want - 70%

I've always liked Toad. He's always been my go to guy in the older Mario Kart games, and whenever he's playable in Mario spinoffs, or even main series Mario games (see: Super Mario Bros. 2 (USA), Super Mario 3D World). Although I'd probably rather have a default Toad than Captain Toad, he's pretty cool on his own merit. Plus, it'd be interesting to see any backpack shenanigans, terraforming, or any inability to jump he may have. I'd be down with him.

 

[fogbadge]

lets see

captain toad

chances: 30% i think the adjustments to peach shows that they are aware that fans want toad in smash so i think this bolsters the chances of captain toad, regular toad and toadette i dont think he'll manage to make it this time but perhaps the future of series they have a shot

want: 100% cap toad/regular/toadette is my most wanted newcomer and will until i get to fight as them

impa

chances: 30% i still think they're reluctent to add in any zelda characters that arent link, zelda and ganon but she is the fourth most major character in the series and an i deal echo character for impa

want: 90% MORE ZELDA!

chrom

chances: 30% i think they recognise the desire to see him in smash but sakurai thought they were already to many when they added in corrin so im doubtful

want: 75% he'd be more fun to play as than the other fe characters

 

[GoodGrief741]

Given the massacre of early disconfirmations, whoever hasn’t shown up yet seems a lot more likely now.

Ashley

Chance: 90%
After finding out about her massive popularity in Japan, plus her conspicuous absence, she’s looking like one of the likeliest characters. She could be Japan’s answer to Ridley and Bayonetta.

Want: 90%
Minus 10% because I might prefer Mona. Not sure about that.

Chrom

Chance: 80%
He’s MIA, it’s easy to assume the Echo Fighter category always had him under consideration given Sakurai’s statements on him being too similar to Ike. He’s also very popular, the second most popular Lord not in Smash (after poor Lyn).

Want: 100%
Heck yeah. If we can’t get Lyn, at least give us Chrom.

Captain Toad

Chance: 65%
Him being an attack again is really a non-issue, they might not even be the same character and even if they are the headgear differentiates them visually. He looks like the likeliest Mario newcomer and used to seem like a shoe-in, but I’m not as confident with him for some reason.

Want: 100%

Toad should be in Smash.

K. Rool

Chance: 50%
On one hand, if this is really geared towards fanservice he’s in. On the other, Sakurai might have added Ridley and called it a day. It could really go either way.

Want: 100%

Impa

Chance: 10%
I don’t really see why anyone could think she’s a likely Echo Fighter. She really doesn’t fit Sheik’s aesthetic or moveset, especially if inspiration was pulled from Hyrule Warriors (which is pretty much mandatory to see her as a candidate for Smash). Plus, if this is fanservice Smash she has to compete with popular picks like Skull Kid or Midna. If Sakurai decides to go with recurring characters (doubtful), we might see Tingle, who’s MIA and very popular in Japan. Even then, Sakurai worked hard to spice up the existing Zelda newcomers, so he might decide that’s good enough.

Want: 20%
I guess?

 

[TheFritzle]

King K. Rool:
Chance: 85%
King K. is really the only character left that rivals Ridley in popularity for a new Smash character. It seems we're only going to get a few newcomers in the base game, I'm predicting around 6-7, so I think they're going to be popular and requested characters. In previous games, there was room to throw in unknown and unpredictable characters, but with newcomers supposedly being in very small numbers, I don't know. King K. Rool is the obvious next pick for a highly requested character, and I'm confident after Ridley, who was denied for the longest time, King. K. Rool and other previously dismissed characters are going to be revisited.

Want: 70%
I used to be really on the King K. Rool hype train, but I've recently kind of fallen off. I'd still love to see him, but I've mellowed out some.

Impa:
Chance: 40%
With Echoes now being officially recognized, we can expect 1-2 more after Daisy. It would be weird to call them Echo fighters, than just only add Daisy. Impa is one of the most likely Echoes, as she is very important and shows up in most Zelda games in some form. I wouldn't count on her being added as a unique character, but as an Echo, I think she is decently likely.

Want: 30%
I don't have any special feelings towards Impa being included. Zelda definitely deserves 7 characters, but I'd rather have Skull Kid or any of the other villains. Impa never felt too unique compared to Sheik, except for Hyrule Warriors, which seems to not be present in the game. If we're just getting her as an Echo, there are other Echoes I'd rather come first.

Ashley:
Chance: 65%
Warioware as a franchise isn't as frequent as others, but still produces games that come out regularly. Ashley's popularity is huge, especially in Japan. She is frequently used in promotional material, some of which isn't even related to Warioware, is the most pushed character in the Badge Arcade (and since the Badge Bunny is an assist, they are aware of it), and is highlighted a lot. She had a mii fighter costume and an assist trophy. She shows up very often, so I definitely think she has a chance. It is kind of weird that her assist trophy wasn't shown though. They highlighted popular characters like Waluigi, Takamaru, Lyn, and Midna as assist trophies, but a lot of other popular characters like Ashley, Isabelle, Skull Kid, and even Isaac are absent. It seems weird that a lot of popular characters are missing from the Demo, but it may amount to nothing.

Want: 100%
My second most wanted character, I think she has a lot of potential. I mainly just like her design, but I think a witch is a concept not yet explored in Smash, and could produce cool results.

Captain Toad:
Chance: 35%
Captain Toad is popular, and doesn't seem like he is going to stop appearing in Mario games. He's even gotten his own game, and possibly series. Toad is an extremely recognizable character, and most people would probably recognize Toad over lots of the other Mario characters already in Smash. Captain Toad is definitely likely, and if we're going off of relevancy and importance, is the next logical Mario character. I'm just not sure if that is enough to push him over the likes of Paper Mario and Geno. Peach's moveset seems to emphasize Toad a lot more in this game, which is strange, as I would expect them to tone that down if Toad is becoming a playable character. Yes, they're not the same character, but it seems suspicious that Toad is being pushed much more in Peach's moveset. A kind of unrelated note, but it seems weird that Captain Toad hasn't appeared in any spinoff Mario games yet. I can't say for certain he won't be playable, but I'm leaning towards he won't be.

Want: 25%
I really don't like Toad or Captain Toad at all. I've never liked Toad, I always thought he was annoying. But, I wouldn't hate having him in Smash. Toad definitely deserves to be in Smash, and a lot of people are really passionate towards getting him added. If he added something unique, I'd go for it.

 

[Deleted member]

Lots of characters to rate, so I'll make it quick

Chrom
Chance: 55%
Want: 5%

With Echo fighters being a thing, maybe it's his time to shine as an Ike Echo.
Still not much excited about that idea.

K. Rool
Chance: 65%
Want: 75%

Seems Ridley paved him the way.

Impa
Chance: 20%
Want: 0%

[...] I prefer to see under-repped series like Donkey Kong and rising ones like Xenoblade getting newcomers first rather than a series which has been obscenely over-milked those last 7 years outside of Smash.
Having who is likely to have a moveset overhaul based from Breath of the Wild is more than enough already.

Captain Toad
Chance: 15%
Want: 10%

AT material at best.

Ashley
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

No change.


Noms:
Female announcer x5

 

[-crump-]

K. Rool
Chance: 50%
I’m constantly wavering on how likely I think the kremling king is for this game, but with the recent announcement of Ridley, and the solid fixation this game seems to have on pleasing fans, I think K. Rool has a fighting chance this time around. Despite his absence in recent years, he is undeniably a big name, and he’s been requested for almost as long as Ridley,

While, yes, we in his support group did possibly overrate his chances during the Ballot Era, K. Rool was absolutely a popular request during that time, and the Mii Costume proves that. With Sakurai’s goal of making fans happy and creating the ultimate version, K. Rool seems, to me at least, to be a very probable contender.

Want: 100%
My most wanted character, no contest. I love this goofy Kroc, and I will never stop requesting him, and preaching his good name to anyone who will listen.
_____________________________
Impa
Chance: 20%
I’m willing to accept that she might turn up as an Echo Fighter, but as one of the few people who doubt that “Echo Fighter” term means anything in regards to speculation, I simply don’t see her as all that probable. She’s vaguely popular, but far from a “big name”, and Zelda already has a lot of characters and potential newcomers lined up.

Want: 5%
No real interest, but I wouldn’t complain if she was a clone. Absolute “meh” territory for me.
_____________________________
Ashley
Chance: 35%
I will acknowledge that she is a very popular character in Japan, and even has her fans in the rest of the world as well.
However, that doesn’t change the fact that she has almost no relevance in her series (at least, no more than any other side character in WarioWare), no abilities shown that could be used for a moveset, and very little that makes her a “Nintendo all-star”, besides the beforementioned popularity.

Want: 30%
Not a character I want, but I wouldn’t really be disappointed. She does have a good design, and more magic characters are welcome. I just don’t get why people seem to think she’s a “perfect fit” for Smash.
_____________________________
Chrom
Chance: 25%
Slightly higher chance than I gave to Impa, but the same general reasoning. If Sakurai is really planning to add more “Echo Fighters”, than Chrom seems like a rather obvious candidate, since the Smash team seems to love mocking him for being a “clone of Ike” (which doesn’t even make sense but w/e).
He’s pretty popular, but I’m far from convinced that we’re getting more Echo Fighters.

Want: 90%
My second favorite lord from one of my favorite series, Chrom is a great character who I would be more than happy to see join the fight, and finally “get his chance” to beat Captain Falcon senseless.
___________________________
Captain Toad
Chance: 45%
One of the most notable new protagonists of the Wii U era, I think the little Captain has a pretty alright shot, albeit not as much as I had though previously. There’s a limit on spots, and Mario’s cast is already pretty bloated. On top of this, Toad taking a more active role in Peach/Daisy’s moveset might feel, to Sakurai, that it fufills the needs of Toad fans.
However, Captain Toad is his own man, not to be held back by some vest-wearing, dress hiding buffoon, and he’s plenty unique enough to be in a spot of his own.

Want: 90%
“Time for Adventure!!”
I will admit, I’m not a fan of Toad. I always found his high-pitched squeaks frustrating in Mario sports and Kart games.

So for Captain Toad to show up and make me absolutely love him, that deserves recognition. Somehow, they managed to inject a fun personality and sense of importance to the little guy that I never felt when dealing with the “classic” Toad. He’s a fun character in his own right, and I would loooove to see him in Ultimate.

____
Noms
Rick/Kine/Coo x4
Tingle x1

 

[harukaamami]

...no abilities shown that could be used for a moveset...

I guess nobody played Game & Wario. Makes sense, it was a Wii-U game.

 

[Opossum]

K. Rool

Chance: 5%
I can't see us getting two unique DK newcomers with such little roster space. Dixie seems far more likely. Not being in Tropical Freeze killed him.
Want: 1%
His fandom during the ballot kinda ruined the excitement for me. A lot of them acted as though even characters like Rosalina and Greninja, some of the best newcomers last time, somehow weren't "deserving" enough, and that K. Rool was snubbed. Many were crass to fans of other characters.

Captain Toad
Chance: 80%
Alongside Dixie and Isabelle, I see him as among the most likely non-leaked newcomers. Hugely relevant, a popular character, and has become a Mario mainstay.
Want: 100%
Time for adventure.

Chrom
Chance: 20%
Not getting my hopes up too high. Sakurai said he envisioned him as an in between, not a copy.
Want: 100%
...But dammit I'll take what I can get. Chrom is among my favorite fictional characters, and is my favorite Nintendo character over all.

 

[-crump-]

I guess nobody played Game & Wario. Makes sense, it was a Wii-U game.

Had a Wii U, never picked up Game & Wario.

Not sure what you’re trying to convince me of here. From what I saw, she can fly on a broomstick, preform nondescript magic, and has a little demon buddy. How is this moveset potential?

 

[LittleKrool]

no abilities shown that could be used for a moveset

I think Ashley has a better moveset than most people think, she does have her wand on her, she can shoot balls of magic from her finer, even a demon named Red that can transform into anything, he even carries around his own pitchfork.

Don't forget she has more moveset potential than Fox and Captain Falcon at the time when they joined Smash bros