Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[NintenRob]

Good thing I checked in, didn't realize this was starting up again. Count how many times I say limited space because I'm probably going to say it a lot

Captain Toad
Chance 20%
With less newcomers in general and Toad being even more prominent in now both Peach and Daisy's moveset. I definitely see him less likely than before. And then there's the hurdle (or lack of, because he can't hurdle) of his jumps. Would Sakurai be able to work around it? Probably if he put his mind to it. But it might just take a while
Want 70%
His cool. Love his game. But with limited numbers I'd like a few others first

K Rool
Chance 40%
If Ridley got in, then the other reptilian reptile could definitely follow, he does have to compete with Dixie though, and again with limited numbers, it's a tough fight
Want 80%
Very cool, very cool. Even with limited numbers I think he makes a ton of sense

Ashley
Chance 25%
Very popular, which led her assist and Mii costume in the first place probably. But again there is limited space and I think others are a priority.
Want 50%
I like her, but again I'd just prefer a lot of other characters

Impa
Chance 48%
I think there's a good chance of being a Sheik echo fighter. And she has her own merits to be unique too but I doubt that it. Her inconsistent design hurts her too.
Want: 30%
I want Skull Kid. Impa would be OK but I want Skull Kid, even more now that

a) can have a match-up against Young Link
b) Home stage with Great Bay
c) The fact he managed to survive the first wave of deconfirmations

Chrom
Chance 5%
It's possible he could be an Echo Digger but I really doubt. I think the only reason we haven't seen Ikes Chrom colour is because they had to get reorganized due to Ikes new costumes. And we know the demo didn't have every colour too as evidence by Mario and Ridley. And not seeing Robins final smash doesn't mean much to me
Want 50%
I don't want much from Fire Emblem, but an echo fighter isn't that much and Awakening is the only Fire Emblem game I've played and I like Chrom

Edit forgot my nominations

Parabo and Satebo x1
Skull Kid relate x4

 

[skylanders fan]

Oh this should be fun
1. King K rool
chance 85%
I mean the biggest issue was Dixie kong and she can easily become a echo fighter. And with fan favorite choices looking to be the forefront of this game I feel like its only a matter of time before we see him

want 100%
my most wanted newcomer so yeah would love to see him. I mean just think of the moveset.

impa
chance 60%
echo fighters should help with her. I could easily see her being a echo of sheik but the issue os do they want to.

want 90%
would be a fun newcomer and zelda needs one still (but would still want a certain other zelda rep to show up)

Ashely
chance 30%
apprently pretty big in Japan from what I have heard. She could have a fun moveset and would represent warioware.

want 50%
not my first choice for a newcomer. but if we were to get her I wouldn't complain

chrom
chance 50%
as a echo fighter he has a much bigger chance. However I'm not really sure if they will give FE another echo fighter or how many echo fighter we will get at all.

want 80%
I like chrom and he would fit. I just want others more than him

captian toad

chance 35%
don't really think we will see him this time. With a limit amount of newcomers they may feel that the mario series is good and any toad represtaion is good for daisy and peach.

want 80%
if we can't have waluigi he would be my second wanted mario rep. I could see a fun moveset and he defintly is a icon that can back it up.

nominating skull kid x5

 

[Camc10]

Further, going off that list NeonBurrito , if we're looking at "straight to the point" final smashes as has been pointed out, a few characters are also going to need reworked final smashes.

These guys have transformation or moveset changing smashes that are gone now:

And if we're looking at "straight to the point" final smashes, then needs hers changed as well due to the after-animation effect slowing down combat (which is good because it's awful!).

So that leaves:

It sounds like Sheik got Greninja's old final smash, which makes sense because Battle Bond is so obvious for a final smash with a Super Water Shuriken. Sounds like no Final Smashes are being shared/cloned this time.

Outside of Young Link and maybe Meta Knight, all of these guys already have a FS from 4 that would work perfect with what they are trying to do with FSes now.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Captain toad 30%

He lost some ground since involved of peaches and Daisy's moves

King k rool 80%

Serious how do you guys not see this (I still see under 50%)

1. Ridley, Daisy and Snake got in to high fan demand so they are focusing on the fans this time and king k rool is logically in the top 5 in the ballot he's most likely to get in the same way and did I mention Ridley is the westerns most wanted bayonetta is Europe (the middle) most wanted and king k rool is westerns most wanted

2. You think relevance is a factor you people made a fatal mistake though if relevance is a factor how did Sukapon become a assist trophy joy mechanic fight on had 1 Weasley game and it was in the nes era Is that what you call relevant and pichu and young link ain't so relevant the only atvantage they'd had is fan wanted them back

3. Dixie kong ain't to much of a problem anymore because she's probably a echo of diddy (actually semi-echo) difference is no jet pack and no peanut gun echo/semi-echo aren't to hard to make


Ashley 40%

Well it's a little bit better for her sinc no assist trophy is spotted yet and the new warioware game was started in 2015 before the roster was finalized and a mii costume and assist trophy shows popularity so maybe rank up to playable

Chrom 50%

Was going to be playable last time but cut at the last minute he gained ground for the echo fighter status probably for Ike or a second marth echo it all depends if he's still in robins final smash or not

impa: 60%

Echo of sheik helps probably a sword is the difference

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Captain Toad
Chance: 35%
Well, after thinking about over, I think Daisy and potentially Geno are all the new Mario reps we are going to get. The updated animations does seem like compenstation to me, and I don't think Sakurai wants to work with the whole "can't jump" shtick.
Want: 75%
I support all the big 4 Mario supports: Daisy(confirmed), Geno, Waluigi(Disconfirmed), and Toad/Captain Toad. But I also really love the idea of Toadette being Captain Toad's Alph-esque alt.

King K.Rool
Chance: 75%
He may have a lack of relevance, but I think that his overwhelming popularity is going to supersede it. With a limiting amount of newcomers, I believe Sakurai is mostly going to include characters like Ridley who are very popular and highly requested, and we know that DA King is one of the highly requested characters.

Want: 100%
Bring on DA King, I am a fan of K.Rool and I think it is his time to shine.

Ashley:
Chance: 90%
Yeah, I am going to go there because Ashley just has it all. She has strong popularity which Sakurai acknowledged, her series is still relevant and getting more games, she has moveset potential being a witch, there is plenty you can do with curses, spells, hexes, and not let forget Red who can transform into anything.

Want: 100%
She is on my sig, so you can see that I am a supporter of hers. I have been in the days of Pre-Brawl. Now is her chance to make it to the major leagues, bring on the cute witch!

Impa
Chance: 50%
She is a good contender to be an echo fighter for Sheik, but we don't know how many echo fighters we might end up getting. If it is only a few, I can see it being more popular characters like Dixie and Isabelle.

Want: 60%
Most likely she is going to be based on the Skyward Sword Impa who I am not really that big on, my favorite Impa design is the Hyrule Warriors, but they would have to pay Koei to use that design sadly.

Chrom
Chance: 50%
Same situation as Impa, though Chrom does enjoy some strong popularity. A problem I see though is that Chrom doesn't have an aether recovery move like Ike(Which Palutena lampshades in Robin's convo) to be an Ike echo, and being a Roy echo as some suggested.. Three characters that play similarly to Marth is pretty silly and a waste if there are scarce echo spots.

Want: 40%
I rather have Celica as you can see on sig, but I would love for Matthew Mercer to geek out over having a character that he voices be a playable character in Smash.

 

[NintenRob]

Can we rate all stages coming back? We already have so many that at this point I wouldn't be surprised if we do get all of them (minus one or two of the Flatzones)

I'm gonna make that my nomination once Parabo and Satebo get rated


Also it would be great if we colour coded the results for characters rated before and after the E3 reveal. Because it really was a huge game changer

 

[Cosmic77]

TCT~Phantom Could you fix Midna, Tom Nook, Takamaru, and Krystal on the Chance and Want scores? All four were disconfirmed.

There's Ganon too, but I'm not sure how people interpreted Ganondorf's Final Smash. Personally, I'd consider it a disconfirmation, but I know others would likely disagree.

 

[NintenRob]

TCT~Phantom Could you fix Midna, Tom Nook, Takamaru, and Krystal on the Chance and Want scores? All four were disconfirmed.

There's Ganon too, but I'm not sure how people interpreted Ganondorf's Final Smash. Personally, I'd consider it a disconfirmation, but I know others would likely disagree.

Ganon should count as deconfirmed. He was referred to straight up as Demon King Ganon while before it was Beast Ganon

 

[Diddy Kong]

K.Rool:

Chances: 70%

Quite solid chances this time around but far from a shoe in. Ridley being in helps a lot yes. But K.Rool has easy matching popularity, had a street sign in Mario Oddysey, Mii Costume in Smash 4 without being relevant, lasting popularty and is the only big time Nintendo villain not yet playable. Would be a crime if he wasn't included, we all know that at this point. If Diddy got in earlier, K.Rool's support would easily equal Ridley's.

Want: 100%

Notice my username, you'll get why I want the major villain of my favorite gaming franchise ever.

Impa

Chances: 65%

Her chances skyrocketed since Echo Fighters are a thing. She also doesn't has to worry which designs the other Zelda characters will use, so that also bodes extremely well for Impa. Skyward Sword might soon get a HD remake, and therefore making her inclusion all the more likely. She appeared since the first NES game, and has only gotten bigger roles. If her role in Breath of the Wild was only workable, she'd be an instant lock, but her most popular and famous roles had her as a young warrior woman anyway. Heavily underrated character.

Want: 100 %

I basically started the support base. I'll be damned if I didn't want her as one of my most wanted characters.

Chrom

Chance: 50%

Easy Echo Fighter, got a model in and all, decently popular, yet he out rightly got denied for Smash 4. Robin's Final Smash also hasn't been shown yet, which bodes well for him. Yet am a little unsure cause his biggest chance would've been if Lucina got reworked and Chrom being her Echo...

Want: 65%

After playing Awakening, I appriciate Chrom. Cool character overall.

Captain Toad

Chances: 50%

Used to rate him higher, now I really don't know. Hit or miss. Lowered cause Peach and Daisy utilise Toads in their grabs. Otherwise he'd be about a solid 75%.

Want: 50%

I just want a Toad playable. He's definitely not my favorite version of the character but I wouldn't complain.

Ashely

Chances: 55%

With her AT missing and with a Mii Costume, she's got a better chance than ever.

Want: 40%

Not too big on her but wouldn't exactly mind her either.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Before we rerate those characters, let's appreciate how inaccurate my scores have been:
Takamaru: 53% (yeah there was a wide margin of error, but it's still one of my very few "more likely than not" ratings)
Decloned Dark Pit: 49.5% (I considered Dark Pit in general slightly more likely than not, so this rating was given with something like 90% chances that he would be luigified if he came back, and the least likely option — returning but still a clone — happened instead)
Wolf: 35% (not terribly low, but much lower than most ratings that were given to him)
Bomberman: 28% (not super high but higher than my Snake rating, and according to the results table most of us are apparently guilty of this)
Squirtle and Ivysaur: 12%
Pichu: 5%
Daisy: 4.5% (I'm guilty like many of giving her a lower score than Waluigi)
Ridley: 2.5% (I said "but even then [if you want to change your mind] making workable what you perceive as unworkable is probably going to get less priority than other characters." No it didn't)
Young Link: 1% (with " Nuff said." as my only line of reasonning. Oops)

On the other hand I expected past Smash fighters to get a higher priority than during Brawl and Smash 4 with fewer cuts and newcomers, and that's how they went, in fact to an even higher extent that I thought would happen. And although I didn't give Snake a very high score (25%), it was still higher than most ratings given to him during his day.

... and now it makes me wish we rated the concept of every character from every game returning. "No cuts" was the closest thing, but probably was only about characters that were in Smash 4.

Conclusion: unlike what Peppy Hare's advice says, when it comes to Smash, don't trust your instincts. For this reason I'm gonna give up and quit this game because all my predictions are useless... just kidding of course, since realizing how wrong you were and how you failed to anticipate some scenarios is a major appeal of this game. So without waiting any more, here are my reratings for those characters judged worth re-talking about:

King K. Rool chances: abstain
There's some optimism that Sakurai might prioritize characters specifically asked for by the fanbase, and K. Rool is is certainly one of the "irrelevant" characters the most asked for to become relevant again in modern Nintendo, with both demand to include him in Smash and reintroduce him in modern Donkey Kong titles. Ridley's inclusion despite Sakurai's concerns about his design is a sign he takes vocal fan demand seriously, but I'm not sure it guarantees K. Rool; fan polls may have placed him higher than Ridley but there's the fact Sakurai's past statements silented a once vocal part of his demand, and he had no doubt that going against his past statements would satisfy those people who went silent. Also unlike K. Rool, Ridley never really fell out of relevance as a Nintendo character, not appearing in all Metroid titles but still making regular appearances with no sign of stopping being a major character in modern Metroid titles, whereas K. Rool has never appeared outside of spin-offs and smaller games since the Rare buyout, with Retro's revival of the classic platformer series not giving him any appearance.

It's possible that Sakurai might include newcomers with more emphasis on explicit fan demand than in prior games, but with the sample size of confirmed newcomers being so small I think it's risky to assume it's going to be what Sakurai will do. It sucks because to have a stronger opinion on K. Rool's chances I feel like we'd need more newcomer confirmations, which also means lower chances for unnanounced newcomers competing for a slot.

King K. Rool want: 75%
Same as last time. While I'm one of those people who want to see K. Rool back as a relevant character of modern Nintendo, part of me feels like doing so in a mainline DK game first would be more appropriate; reveal him in the next DK game and my score easily becomes 100%. I just don't want to see him stuck to Nintendo's past, he's too much of a classic and memorable villain for that.

-----

Since we're rating so many characters today I'm putting a separator between each of them.

Impa chances: 33%
Last time we rated her I gave her a score mostly based on the hypothesis that she might have a moveset inspired by Hyrule Warriors and would thus be a way to represent it. With echo fighters there's the possibility of her being an echo of Sheik now, which would make sense as her ninja appearance is her most popular one. For echo fighters I believe anyone who's popular enough from their home series to stand out from other characters, and makes sense to have a moveset that's mostly the same as another character's with mostly the same animations, is fair game, and Impa makes sense in that regard.

Impa want: 35%
I'm not really interested in having her as an Hyrule Warriors representative with a moveset inspired from it, but as an echo fighter I'd be more willing to see her joining Smash. In general echo fighters I think are low cost characters that don't give me a strong opinion one way or the other whether they're in or not, although to be fair it's probably their strength: they easily satisfy fans of these characters with little opportunity cost.

-----

Ashley chances: 36%
I gave her a lower score than that last time, which may be counterintuitive considering Sakurai told us to not expect a lot of new characters. However since that rating it looks like I've underestimated how popular she is as a modern Nintendo character. There's however no clear evidence that she's super likely either, so with the likely limited slots this score makes sense imo. At least the lack of an Assist Trophy of her is a positive.

Ashley want: 25%
Again, not a character I'm particularly invested in. I guess she could be interesting with magic spells if she works like that.

-----

I wrote Chrom's paragraph here, then I realized he's not rated today... at least I can save it so I have it ready for tomorrow. Edit: since we were told to finally add Chrom... here's my rating for him:

Chrom chances: 32.5%

As I explained in my previous post, Chrom makes a lot of sense as a low cost echo fighter. He's still a major face of modern Fire Emblem, and the line "I suppose I'll get my chance another day" might actually become true. The fact that Robin's Final Smash is nowhere to be seen is a good sign, and it could easily be replaced by a legendary tome; I mentioned Mjölnir in my previous post, but we could also get Valflame which unlike Mjölnir is gotten during the main adventure and is not DLC exclusive in FEA.

The character on which Chrom would be based upon as an echo fighter is obviously Ike. In general the later's attack animations suit Chrom pretty well, he could simply copy them while changing some sound effects and the speed at which he swings his sword to make it feel like he's fighting with a swift weapon that doesn't feel as heavy as Ike's, and the flames from Eruption could be replaced by a dazzling flash. On the other hand Aether looks like a potential deal breaker: you can't simply give Chrom Ike's Aether and say it's fine, as it's his most unique move animation wise and in Palutena's Guidance Chrom's lack of Aether recovery was even mocked; I rewatched Aether's animation from Awakening to be sure and indeed it doesn't look like a recovery. However after rewatching Ike's Aether animation I think there's a case for a modified Dolphin Slash that copies part of Ike's animation when executing Aether: I advise you to watch this video at minimum speed (×0.25) to see what I mean.

How I envision Chrom's up special would be imitating Ike's animation for Aether when he throws his sword until just before the point where Ike's right hand's distance above the rest of his body reaches its peak, but without throwing his sword, and jumping when he starts swinging his sword upwards.

To be fair yesterday I forgot about Ike's Aether and how unfitting it would be for Chrom, and while not completely implausible my proposal for a fix while still borrowing Ike's animations feels somewhat handwave-y, so I lowered my score from the original 40% I thought about. And for the Final Smash, I think it would be completely unfitting for Chrom, but Dark Pit is back with his old Final Smash (which, fun fact, is now unique with the FS change for Zelda and Sheik), so Chrom would be fine as an echo fighter and still having his own Final Smash: he could do the Awakening ritual and attack with the Exalted Falchion.

Chrom want: 35%
Again, echo fighters don't really have an impact whether they're in or not, so I'd be fine with Chrom but not really excited for him either, although with the undeserved humiliation that happened almost four years ago part of me thinks he deserves it. But three Awakening characters would feel like a lot.

-----

Captain Toad chances: 27%
I feel like my rating of him from the last time is still accurate, although with the increased role Toad have in Peach's and now Daisy's moveset it might hurt him a little, although not very much I think, only to the extent that it reduces the appeal of having a playable Toad representative in Smash. He's still a notable rising star of the modern Mario era, although it's debatable if he has risen enough to warrant strong consideration for a playable role in Smash. His staring role in CT:TT is a good thing, but hurt by the fact it's quite a budget title; his appearance in Mario Odyssey is a good thing too, but again he's hurt by his limited roles in this game, being only a Power Moon giver in somewhat hard-to-reach areas.

Captain Toad want: 62%
Although I think he'd be an interesting choice, I'm a bit less invested in the idea than last time. Still, being an explorer type of character with modulable physics, and a character with just enough caliber as a Mario all-star to feel like a good choice for a unique Smash fighter, I'd gladly welcome him as such.

Are we counting nominations today? If so then I nominate Smash Run x5. I nominated the Battlefield form stages concept to save it from the purge then it got confirmed meaning it gets purged anyway... but at least it's something awesome I wanted in this game.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Since I made a boo boo and so many people rated Chrom anyway Chrom is still on the schedule, y’all have till 2 pm edt to add Chrom/Impa ratings.


My rating from Chrom

50% Chance

The fact that we know 3/4 final smashes and Robins is mia is a bit suspicious imo. Sakurai knows Chrom has a fan base and awakening is still a cash cow. But he could still be the final smash because some of them just make sense to keep like Duck Hunt or Luigi who we have not seen. Also Fire Emblem.

100% Want

Give the poor boy his chance. He needs it. Let him get some payback on the captain.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Already did Chrom, so I'll just post my Impa rating here.

Impa

Chance: 40% - Impa has been a recurring character in the Zelda series for a while now, with many different iterations across the games. With Smash Ultimate using character designs from various games in the series, it leaves open the possibility for Impa to appear based on her Skyward Sword appearance. With clones being glorified as 'Echo' fighters now, I'd say her chances are even higher when you factor in the possibility of her being an 'Echo' of Sheik.

Want: 80% - With Midna deconfirmed, Impa is now my most wanted newcomer from the Zelda series. I think she has tons of potential, especially when you look at what all she could do in Hyrule Warriors. Only reason why it isn't 100% is because of the possibility she'll be a clone of Sheik, and I'd rather we have as little clones as possible.

Nominations were included with last rating post, but in case they weren't registered: Slippy Toad x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Chrom

Chance - 45%

Exact same score I gave Impa. With the lack of us seeing Robin's Final Smash, as well as the inclusion of Echo Fighters, I could easily see him taking on the role of an Ike echo fighter or a semi-clone. Not much else to say.

Want - 10%

Not really a huge fan of having three characters come from the exact same Fire Emblem game, when we still have tons of other FE games without any representation in Smash at all, but might as well complete the Awakening main character trio at this point.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok day over, I’ll take the advice I got. Today we got Dark Samus, Rex and Pyra, and Simon Belmont. Tomorrow we shall do all the gen 7 pokemon. Schedule will be out tomorrow.

 

[Deleted member]

Abstain from chance on all three. (I'm only gonna say this once, so keep that in mind for the future)

Want:
Dark Samus: 30%
The only Metroid game I've played was Zero Mission. I intend to play the Prime Trilogy next since that's their placement in the timeline, but it's gonna be a while until that happens.
Anyway, I have no personal connection to Dark Samus.
Rex & Pyra: 10%
I don't like their designs, to put it mildly. However, I have little against them otherwise, and I achknowledge their popularity so I guess I'd be happy for their fans.
SImon Belmont: 50%
Still find him pretty boring and would prefer Alucard. Castlevania remixes in Smash would be amazing either way though.

Susie x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dark Samus
Chance: 80%
Same as Chrom, she’s even more MIA. No alt and no AT. Would be a pretty intuitive (if not completely accurate) to make her an Echo Fighter.
Want: 100%
Kickass villain.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 95%
At this point, the leak seems almost confirmed. It makes sense too. Bomberman shows that Konami is willing to work with Nintendo beyond the mandatory Snake for everyone to be back.
Want: 100%
An icon of a classic era.

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 70%
Probably a shoe-in for DLC, but base roster seems unlikely.
Want: 75%
Like their designs and characters.

 

[Zema]

Dark Samus

Chance: 20%
I get the feeling that most people think that Sakurai's acknowledgment and rebranding of clones means that he will be adding many new "Echo Fighters" to the game. I really don't think that's the case. Furthermore, with the addition of Ridley as a Metroid villain, I think Dark Samus' chances have been greatly diminished. However, she's a good representative of the Metroid Prime series, if anything, and if Sakurai does plan on adding new "Echo Fighters", she'll definitely be a contender.

Want: 50%
I don't really think Dark Samus is that memorable or noteworthy, but I wouldn't mind seeing her in the game.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 40%
I haven't played Xenoblade Chronicles 2, but given that Shulk is in, one would think this would open the door for more reps from the series. I don't disagree, I'm just skeptical that Xenoblade is popular enough to warrant another rep... though stranger things have happened in Smash.

Want: 20%
Again, I haven't played Xenoblade Chronicles, so I don't really have any attachment to these characters. Shulk was kind of cool, but Rex and Pyra don't really do anything for me.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 60%
Consistently popular and a legitimate contender. Sakurai is running out of choices that aren't Simon Belmont, too. I think he's got a relatively good shot, either on release or as DLC down the line.

Want: 80%
I haven't finished Castlevania nor have I played it for that long, but Simon Belmont is a pretty iconic character. I would love to see him in Smash,

 

[Icedragonadam]

Dark Samus

Chance: 50%
Want: 50%

With the concept of Echo Fighters, I think Dark Samus has a decent shot now. And her Assist trophy hasn't been seen yet.

Rex And Pyra

Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

It's 50/50 for base roster IMO if this game actually started development in 2014. For DLC, very likely chance with the new dlc for Xenoblades 2.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 75%
Want: 100%

Most of the Vergeben leak was pretty much true. The only thing missing is Simon and Minecraft content. So I think it's likely he'll be in.

Nominate Lloyd x5

 

[-crump-]

Dark Samus
Chance: 35%
I will admit, the fact that Samus’ “dark” palate swap has seemingly been replaced for no apparent reason is enough to raise some suspicion. Take that and add the fact that the Dark Samus Assist Trophy is still MIA, and the whole Echo Fighter debacle, and you have a pretty interesting situation on your hands. However, she still seems like an odd pick, considering she met her definitive end in Prime 3, and with Ridley being confirmed, a second Metroid newcomer seems odd.

Want: 15%
No interest, never finished Prime trilogy. However, assuming she’s an echo, it’s not like she would take up much development time, so I wouldn’t complain.
Idon’t really like the idea of Metroid’s playable roster being 3/4 “characters named Samus”, but I guess there are 3 Links now, so it’s only fair
____________________________
Rex & Pyra
Chance: 15%
Looking like it’s DLC for this pair. The Switch Era of games has little in the way of content from what we’ve seen, and with limited space for new characters, and an emphasis on fufilling Smash fans’ wishes I just don’t think they’re very likely.

Want: 0%
I still hate their designs with a passion, I still think Xenoblade 2 is still new, and I still think Elma is a better choice for Smash. Sorry, but there is literally nothing redeeming for me about this pair.
______________________________
Simon Belmont
Chance: 65%
I’m really believing the whole leak business, and with Snake returning it just makes sense that Konami’s closest relation to Nintendo (Castlevania) would make an appearance as well. Simon Belmont is a big name character, and definetley something I could see Sakurai getting excited about.

Want: 30%
Not someone I am actively supporting or excited for, but I wouldn’t complain. Like I said, Simon is a big name, and closely tied to Nintendo.

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Dark Samus

Chance: 95%

Well that was quite the jump...

I think we're going to be getting several more Echo Fighters, and I am very confident that Dark Samus will be one of them. It's a logical choice for an echo fighter, something that should play similarly to the character it is literally a clone of, but with a very distinct personality that would warrant it's own slot. Unless we see her Assist Trophy in the near future, I'm considering this a near shoe-in.

Want: 100%

I can't believe I live in a world where we might be getting TWO Metroid newcomers in a Smash Brothers game.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 15%

With the revelations on how long Smash Ultimate has been in development, alongside the development cycle of Xenoblade 2, as well as questions on if Sakurai would even consider the pair with more relevant competition in the form of Elma, AND the fact that we're getting less unique newcomers, these two do not look nearly as likely as they did the last time we rated them. DLC, sure, but I'm not rating them in terms of that.

Want: 0%

Probably the only potential character I would pay money to keep them out of my game.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 40%

I'm not sold on Vergebaan. His method of collecting information seems absolutely nonsensical. If he has a source in marketing, how did he not know about Daisy and Echo Fighters? If his source is at Konami, why not mention the Bomberman trophy, and why would he know any other information? Either his source is being intentionally vague, or he's just making educated guesses/piggybacking off of other leaks.

That said, Simon still has a great shot at being in the game. Konami is clearly on board for Smash Bros. Ultimate, and Belmont is one of the most iconic 3rd parties not yet included in Smash. Of all the potential candidates, I think Simon has the best shot.

Want: 70%

Never played a Castlevania, but it would be neat to see him face off with Samus. Make Metroidvania's come full circle, ya know?

 

[RouffWestie]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 100%
Same reasons I've given for him on his initial day:

He's one of the few well-known NES characters not already in Smash left. From its inception on the NES, many sequels have kept the franchise alive, even when they went in different directions. Castlevania remains relevant in the modern day thanks to its own Netflix series, and an upcoming mobile game. There's clear plans to keep the franchise alive in many ways, but Simon's not a safe bet until Castlevania is back on the home console market; it'd take the announcement of a new standalone Castlevania game/reboot/HD remake to convince me he's more likely.

But now that there are very clear signs Casltevania will be coming back to consoles, I have zero reason to doubt him.
Want: 100%
----------
Rex & Pyra
Chance: 95%
Same score as before. Would benefit from the promotion and would be recognizable to the Switch audience.
Want: 0%
----------
Dark Samus
Chance: 20%
She was important in the Metroid Prime trilogy, and may return in MP4, which would make her a sensible clone to include. But she might not be seen as important enough to return as anything more than an assist trophy.
Want: 5%
Idk, I don't see what the big deal with her is, but it's more Metroid so it's worth something.

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Dark samus

Chance 45%

The echo fighters concept is what brought the chance from 1% all the way to this
Samus is in The demo showed no sign of dark Samus alt and no assist trophy
And...and could advertise for metroid prime 4
By the way if you think the demo doesn't show all the alternates
You would be incorrect
https://mobile.twitter.com/Shinesparkers/status/1007353251988148224
All 8 alts are there and the black suit has yellow instead of phazon blue I'm guessing it's based off pre-dark Samus phazon suit in metroid prime 1

Ps a fun fact metroid prime two is called echos and in smash clones have ben renamed to echo fighters

EDIT (if I'm allowed to) I just realized echo characters have the same attacks but charatitics are different and dark Samus would be a semi-clone if playable
Want 75%

Metroid needs more love in smash bros

Rex and pyra

Chance 70%

Not for base roster but dlc perhaps the pyra voice actor mention she has nothing to do with smash ultimate so that tells me base is not happening but due to popularity and to promote the new xenoblade dlc has a shot

Want 50%

Not a xeno fan but we are over due for tag team character

Simon belmont

Chance 90%

It's only 10% short because I'm being cautious that this ends up in a gemusatu scenario vergeben got 4/6 correct for smash so far but could have ben scraped during development konami got the close door conference at E3 probably the castlevania he rumored and possibly sakurai was hiding in there after they show simon for smash ultimate

 

[Organization XIII]

Dark Samus

Chance: 60%
She can be an echo and we haven't seen her AT yet but

Want: 0%
She makes no sense as an AT and if we got her as one I'd be very unhappy

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 90%
They are the best shot at a Xenoblade character and my score includes DLC as for the base game I'd give them a 30 as it's more likely we won't see a Xenoblade character added to the base

Want: 100%
They are both awesome characters and I would love to play as them

Simon Belmont

Chance: 50%
It can happen so far the Verge leak isn't dead but I don't know we will see.
Want: 80%
Indifferent to his inclusion but the Verge leak is good for Banjo which is really the only reason I'd like to see him

Rex and Pyra

Want: 0%

Probably the only potential character I would pay money to keep them out of my game.

Wow that's harsh

 

[AlphaSSB]

Dark Samus

Chance: 20% - With clones being glorified as 'Echo' fighters, I can see Sakurai adding in more of them. Dark Samus is certainly a candidate. However, I'm not entirely sure he'd go with Dark Samus, as there's many other characters with potential as clones.

Want: 10% - I'm not a fan of adding in more clones, but if we had to get more, Dark Samus would be somewhat preferred.


Rex & Pyra

Chance: 20% - I think they have a decent shot, as Xenoblade Chronicles 2 was apparently in development around the same time Smash Ultimate was. I think Elma may have a better shot due to timing, but I certainly wouldn't count Rex & Pyra out.

Want: 5% - I've no real attachment to them, and their designs are less than appealing. Wouldn't hate them for making it in, but there's plenty of others I'd rather see instead.


Simon Belmont

Chance: 25% - With Snake returning, and Bomberman as an Assist Trophy, I think now is Simon Belmont's best shot. He's a classic NES character, and Sakurai is a fan of the Castlevania series. There's still other characters that Sakurai may look at before Simon Belmont, but I think there's a decent shot that we'll see him. If not playable, than almost certainly as an Assist Trophy or Mii Costume. The latter of course assuming Mii Costumes are still a thing in Ultimate.

Want: 1% - Simon Belmont would be really cool to see, but I'm really not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the horde of them we have now. We've seven total, which is a good spot with 8-Player Smash still a thing. I'd prefer him over many other potential 3rd Parties, and I think he'd be a better choice than many of the 3rd Parties we have now. In the end, though, he's another 3rd Party I'd rather not add to the already massive pile.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Pacack]

I'm just going to do a quick rating today.

Dark Samus:
Chance - 30%
She definitely has the potential to be an unorthodox Samus echo, but she also has abilities that are very, very different from Samus. Ironically, her biggest obstacle now might be that she's not similar enough to Samus.

Want: 70%
Would be cool, and I'm always down for more Metroid stuff.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 7.5%
Shockingly low if you ask most, but I wholeheartedly believe that Sakurai wouldn't have gone out of his was to get a character from an unreleased game, especially when he had a perfectly reasonable alternative in Elma. It simply doesn't make sense. (Mind, I would only give Elma a ~35% chance. I just give low chance scores in general.)

The Greninja scenario is unlikely, as that only happened because of the Pokemon Company, and a Roy scenario isn't comparable since he was a clone.

Please understand that my scores do not include DLC chances. If they did, then I would rate him closer to 80%

Want: 50%
I loved XC2, but Rex was my least favorite of the cast, and Pyra's design has always rubbed me the wrong way. If they get in, I'll honestly be happier for the inevitable stage and music than for the character.

I also believe that XCX ought to have some representation before we get another character from the more fantasy-esque XC1+2 side of the franchise. I expect that XCX's universe will live on, and I'm hopeful for Elma.

Simon Belmont:
Chance: 55%
Vergeben definitely has at least some legitimate information. However, Simon not being revealed at E3 is eyebrow-raising. Further, he has been known to release information that's inaccurate alongside real information.

I'm inclined to believe he's right, but I also have my doubts.

Want: Abstain
I have never played a Castlevania game, so I don't particularly care about him. I'm not opposed to the idea, but I also dont have any reason to want him.

Nominations: Historical Newcomer x5

 

[fogbadge]

dark samus

chances: 20% i dont think its terribly likely she may be an ideal candidate for an echo character i just dont see it

want 10% well shes wouldnt be the worst inclusion to the roster

rex and pyra

chances: 50% i can still see it going either way but the lack of unique newcomers has left me wary

want: 100% the anime style may make pyra look ridiculous but they're still cool characters and would be great fun to play as

 

[Pacack]

TCT~Phantom Hey, it looks like there's a huge difference of opinion here over whether we should include DLC or not for predictions. Can you clear that up for us?

 

[Deleted member]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 50% - The highest I'm willing to give ANY character at this point.

First of all, there's the leak, which so far has been accurate (no cuts, Ridley confirmed, etc.). Of course, there's a chance it could be outdated (it didn't even say anything about Daisy, or that ALL veterans would return), or that the Simon part was misinformation.

Even if you disregard the leak, things are more in his favor. Konami has their foot in the door again, and arguably his main competition other than Snake was disconfirmed. I don't know how well Simon did on the Smash 4 ballot (and echo chambers like forums and fan polls aren't good indications of that), but he could of done fairly well if he were at least considered for Smash Ultimate. And while the Castlevania franchise may not be as iconic as the third party characters currently playable in Smash (sans maybe Bayonetta, but she was the ballot winner), it's arguably a well-known franchise in its own right, and among the changing protagonists throughout the series, Simon and Alucard are definitely the most popular of the bunch.

Lastly (and I'll admit this is probably minor), as much as I feel Sakurai's biases tend to be blown out of proportion by fans, it is worth noting that he is (or at least was) a huge fan of the series, and that it "left an impact" on him.

Want: 100%

He's easily my most wanted character out of the ones that I feel at this point realistically have any chance.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Well, its fathers day tomorrow, so I am getting roped into family stuff. Might as well post my scores early.

Dark Samus

99% Chance

I did not think I would do such a reversal. But in my opinion Dark Samus is the most likely character rn that we shall rate in this game until we see the finished game.

I did not previously think Sakurai would embrace clones. But with him going in deep with the concept, I feel Dark Samus is the single likeliest echo fighter aside from one other potential candidate or two.

The one two punch of not only having Samus' dark samus styled recolor be replaced and her assist trophy being MIA leaves some questions. We have seen the metroid and mother brain assist trophies, but Dark Samus' is nowhere to be seen. Now if this was just the fact that her assist trophy was gone I would be a bit questionable, but the fact that the skin is gone makes me see her as one of the most likely echos.

Part of what makes me think Dark Samus makes so much sense for an echo is that ironically you can borrow a lot from Samus. Change the neutral B to be like her assist trophy shot, make the down b a Phazon shield from her AT, give her different running and walking animations, and maybe a different final smash. It would honestly be one of the easiest echos to do, especially since the model would have been there to begin with.

75% Want

Ehh she is a villain and that means more Metroid content, so I will be happy. However, that also means that other echos I could want a bit more are less likely. Still, probs one of my higher choices for an echo.

Simon Belmont

80% Chance

Vergeben, I should not have doubted you. With the Vergeben leak looking more legit, Simon goes from a more niche choice to a legitimate one. Furthermore, the fact that his main competiton in Bomberman is an assist and the fact that Snake is back help pave the way for Simon to be in the game. He clearly has the merit to get in, Castlevania is up there with Megaman and classic Nintendo games in terms of NES iconicness. His series has had a slew of critically acclaimed games. Also one other thing is that most other third party characters have taken a hit in likelyness w E3 Passing. Characters I was confident in like Sora or Crash have a greater chance as DLC with the fact that they were not at E3. IMO, outside of echos, the only third party characters rn I would rate over a 50% are Geno, Simon, and for some reason Professor Layton because I feel a bit more confident in him now.


100% Want

Smash is a game of all stars and Nintendo history. Having such a massive series as Castlevania in the roster would be amazing. Also Simon would be so fun to play, I would love to whip it good in all directions.

Now for where yall might disagree with me.

Rex and Pyra

90% Chance

I am less confident in the duo than before, but I am still confident that these two are making it in. Now I can go on an on about how there are merits to them in terms of moveset or in terms of relevancy, but let me dispell some arguements real quick.


1. Their designs were not finalized until September of 2016.

I believe you are referring to this.That refers to facial animations, which I feel would not be relevant to Smash. Honestly, given that they are not present on this, I believe their designs would have been finalized earlier. Note that facial animations are far later than a character being outlined or colored in. With Rex and Pyra absent from outlines or colored in I think I can say that they were likely outlined and colored before April 5, 2016. I feel that would make them reasonably viable in terms of timing.

2. Skye Bennet said she heard nothing about Smash.

At first I was inclined to believe this, as this is weird. However I would like to bring up the example of Matt Mercer. Matt Mercer initially did not know anything about Chrom in smash, but later he changed his tune with tweets about how he had exciting work. Skye Bennett is doing something similar now, which makes me more confident. Also, some people might be concerned with the fact we know that some characters are dubbed already. However, this kind of makes sense, get the characters you need dubbed earlier for trailers and stuff done first. Rex and Pyra will probably be further down the pipeline, so I feel confident they are in.

3. Recency.

The game has been in development for a long long time, I think Sakurai or the higher ups would know about it at least in the project window for Smash Ultimate. IMO recency and timing can be issues, but in a case like this I am inclined to believe that they are nill.

4. Popularity

Some people might go against this and state that Rex and Pyra are not popular, and this game is super fanservicy. While that is true, I find that a bit...odd. For me that strikes as more of an availability heuristic. People on here tend to not like Rex and Pyra, ergo people in general do not like Rex and Pyra. I feel that they will certainly be recognizable and popular with the switch demographic, especially since it is the best selling Xeno Game. Also Elma is kind of hurt with X being stuck on the Wii U and her game not being out in time for the ballot in the states.

In conclusion, the more I think about it, the more confident I am in Rex and Pyra. I know some people are hesitant to rate them high, but I am confident in them.

100% Want

Honestly outside of K. Rool and Crash these two are my most wanted that are feasible for the base game. I got the collector's edition for Christmas and I love the game. Also please give me a Gramp's Back stage. Oh and even if it is in X I think we will get a Neo Los Angeles stage so yeah.


Speaking of Which, I have a preliminary schedule I will share right now. Please not this is not completely final, I will listen to some feedback and whatnot.

6/17 Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu
6/18 Excitebiker and Prince Sable
6/19 Isabelle, Shadow, and Octolings
6/20 Bandana Dee and Elma
6/21 Dixie Kong and Isaac
6/22 Rayman and Crash Bandicoot
6/23 Paper Mario and Celica
6/24 Shovel Knight and Shantae
6/25 Geno and Dillon
6/26 Steve and Chibi Robo
6/27 Banjo and Kazooie and Andy
6/28 Professor Layton and Skull Kid
6/29 Lip and Travis Touchdown
6/30 Arle Nadja and Qbby
7/1 Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character and Concept: Arms Character


I took a lot of either highly wanted or previously highly rated characters and made a brief schedule. Essentially this is to rerail us going forward so that we can essentially get ourselves back on track after such a huge shift in the game. If you feel anyone else should make the cut or we should do more structured days, please give feedback on this.

If you are wondering why the OP is kind of behind, I need to fix it up. Deconfirmed Chraracters will be in a new "Graveyard" section in order to avoid cluttering up the ranks. Also I have the scores for the last two we rated before E3, they will be out tomorrow so people can get noms for them. Also until structured days are over, the Top Ten of Chance and Want graphics will stay down. Currently they are broken for me, so i need new ones anyway.

Also Pacack people have discretion to include DLC, I never made a rule explicitly against it.

 

[CWCPT00]

Dark Samus

Chance: 10%

People are getting way out of hand with this whole echo fighters thing. Echos fighters are CLONES so why should Sakurai just add a load of them because they were given a different name. We’re either getting just Daisy as a echo fighter or one more or else Sakurai will receive criticism for adding so many echos and could be deemed as lazy and uncreative. The fact that so many people think that there is going to be so many echo fighters in now is blasphemous in my opinion.

Want: 0%

Lazy, boring, uncreative, wasting development time that can be spent on other characters who are unique. Do I need to say more?

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 30%

I think it’s too early for them and I also think DLC is where their chances is going to be at its highest.

Want: 20%

I find them pretty boring tbh, I haven’t seen anything that would make me hyped for their inclusion.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 40%

Take these leaks with a grain of salt, it’s rare that leaks especially relating to Smash are always 100% correct but Sakurai seems to be a fan of the Castlevania series so Belmont’s inclusion makes sense but I’m still leaning towards him being more likely to miss out than likely to get in.

Want: 70%

He would be a great addition to the game imo and would be really cool to play as. I don’t like third parties much but Belmont would definitely be someone I’d accept to be in Ultimate.

 

[Slyshock]

Dark Samus

Chance: 50%
While the removal of Ike's Chrom colors was very likely just a coincidence due to Ike losing half his Radiant Dawn costumes, Samus and her Dark Samus palette have no excuse. Being a major character from an underrepresented series as well as one of the few Echo newcomers which most people wouldn't have a problem with, there's good reason to include them. At the same time, it'd be at the cost of inaccuracy to both the source material and their previous portrayal in Smash. Still, those hurdles didn't stop Ridley from being shrunken down, so there's a strong possibility that Sakurai will bend the rules again for the other Metroid villain.

Abstaining from want, both due to unfamiliarity and Echo characters being inherently uninteresting.

Rex and Pyra

Abstaining from chance, since it just boils down to whether or not their designs were finalized and whether or not they'd get the Roy/Greninja/Corrin treatment. I'd say it's less likely than more, but I wouldn't want to try putting a number to it. Once DLC arrives, they're as good as guaranteed.

Want: 65%
Not a huge fan of them as characters nor their game, but XC2's gameplay mechanics would translate well enough into an interesting and fun fighter.

Simon Belmont

Chance: 85%
Both of the following would need to be true for Simon Belmont not to be playable:

-The leak was either fake all along or is inaccurate about something that the leaker is rather adamant about defending
-Sakurai either couldn't get Castlevania representation from Konami or is holding onto non-playable representation for a daily blog post

While it's not impossible, I find it very unlikely that both of these would turn out to be the case. If the leak is fake or inaccurate, then it's the most real and accurate fake and inaccurate leak in a hot minute. Sakurai's love of Castlevania is well-documented, it sounds silly to me that'd he'd hit up a rocky company like Konami just to bring back a veteran and make a fan favorite heavy hitter like Bomberman an assist trophy. Konami's also trying to do more things with Castlevania and Simon specifically, so they'd have all the reason in the world to request an addition.

Want: 100%
I've made peace with Simon's other designs, but I'm also convinced we're getting the classic. Between Konami using haircut Fabio in their recent Simon-related offerings and Sakurai's attachment to both the original Castlevania and retro character designs in general, there's little doubt that we'll be getting Blondie.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[StrangeMann]

Dark Samus
Chance: 50%
Want: 65%

Really depends on whether or not her assist trophy is still in the game and just not in the demo.
That being said, the removal of the Dark Samus alt for samus makes me think she's a possibility.
I don't think we'd need her, because we got the much better metroid rep already, but at the same time I don't think it would be difficult to implement her as an echo.

Rex and Pyra
Chance: 50% (80% for DLC
Want: 50%

Really conflicted about these characters. We know Xenoblade 2 was a very popular title, and Rex and Pyra are obviously the mainliners for said title.
Elma may or may not be a more viable character for the main roster of the game though, so I'm holding on the idea that it's a 50/50 between Rex/Pyra and Elma for the base game.
I've never played Xenoblade 2, but I know that the movesets might be fun for this character. At the same time, I know many people find Rex and Pyra as bland or uninspired character designs, so I'm going to withhold judgement and just say I'm fine either way.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 75%
Want: 75%

Not a fan of his series, but Simon is a pretty likely candidate now for Smash Bros Ultimate.
The Vergeben leak is one likely factor pointing to his conclusion. Ridley, Ice Climbers, Snake, Simon, and No cuts have all happened except for Simon (as well as minecraft representation, but I'll talk more about that on Steve's day). The rumor on the street by many people is that at E3, Konami showed off a new game behind closed doors. If Vergeben is to be believed, this is a new castlevania title, and if it is then it likely proves the legitimacy of his source. We'll likely know in the next few days (the embargo ends on the presentation next Wednesday), so I get the feeling the Genie may be coming out of the bottle sooner or later.
This isn't even accounting for the fact that we know that castlevania is a massive inspiration for Sakurai, and with bomberman out of the way as a secondary konami rep I really don't see any other room for improvement.
The only other alternative is getting another third party like Rayman, Geno, or Sora and he is just pushed out, assuming vergeben is also incorrect.
This will be my highest rating for a third party rep unless we get more information.

 

[BluePikmin11]

With Vergeben’s Simon Belmont/Ridley leak on Gamefaqs having notable credibility, I figured that I would analyze Simon again. What is the main reason Sakurai wanted to add a Konami character in Smash Switch, despite the company’s incredibly awful treatment to Kojima during their restructure? I can only think of five possible reasons, one of them being personal impact. Sakurai has personal history with Castlevania since the vert first game on the NES, based on the statement he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:

“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”

I feel that such personal impact with this iconic franchise would tempt him to consider a Castlevania character. Second, Simon's potentially massive ballot popularity. I have seen Simon Belmont constantly requested and campaigned in online forums since the ballot creation. Simon’s amount of votes could have convinced Sakurai enough at least consider the idea thoroughly. Third, the move-set potential Simon offers. Simon has a distinct weapon not primarily used by other Smash characters, which would be his whip. That and his assortment of different weapons like the throwing axe, holy water, and boomerang could have tempted Sakurai to make him playable.

Fourth, pure will. I think there would be no way Konami characters would be a consideration to Sakurai without getting past the Konami Kojima treatment. I feel two things would play into this. One, the strong likelihood that Kojima would want Snake back in Smash. Even back in Smash 4, he still wanted Snake to be in the game despite not being contacted by Sakurai to do negotiations. Metal Gear Solid is still Kojima’s baby, and I cannot imagine an event where Kojima would not want it to happen even in the hard circumstances. If Sakurai contacted him primarily for permission, Kojima would still say yes and possibly help Sakurai with his anger with Konami.

Fifth and most importantly, Sakurai wanting to have Smash be the #1 fighting game roster ever. Sakurai has managed to create an unbelievable roster for Smash 4 thanks to the third-party additions like Sonic, Megaman, Pac-Man, Ryu, Cloud, all big gaming icons in a single fighting game. With Smash 4 in specific, he wanted the 3DS/Wii U installment to be the best character game in the world. If he wanted to fill in the remaining bases for big third-parties like he stated in a Nintendo Dream interview, then he will have to get past Konami’s treatment and try to negotiate one of Konami’s big icons to truly make Smash the number one character game in the world.

In my perspective, with Konami’s restructuring in 2016 when the Smash Switch project plan was created, they would still be open and fair with the negotiation of Simon Belmont. Around this time, they previously brought a majority of their old library via Wii U eShop consistently throughout the years when other third-parties couldn’t, allowed their titles to be part of the NES Mini lineup, and had a Castlevania anime in production in 2016. (If Vergeben’s information is anything to go by.) I personally think in 2016, Konami was free and available to make profitable business deals with Nintendo and Sakurai. All of these factors create an small opening in which Simon Belmont’s inclusion in Smash Bros. is very possible. Now with Snake confirmed to return, games that Vergeben's sources had that were confirmed at E3 2018, and Bomberman being an Assist Trophy, things are looking great for Simon in Smash now.

Nominations:
x5 Hanafuda character

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Dark Samus
Chance: 40% - It's definitely noteworthy that the assist trophy is MIA and the coloration is gone, but not all of the alternate palettes are available in the E3 build.
Want: 20% - Metroid got it's true villain and a major newcomer. If you ask me that's all we need or will get.

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 35% - Based on the fact this game has a majorly different development cycle, I can see characters being added mid-development and I can definitely see them being added along with say, Spring Man, but I don't know how confident I am in saying Sakurai would add these characters. Bowser Jr. was very nearly cut from Smash 4, so I could see them in the same boat as him.
Want: 60% - More Xenoblade content is definitely welcome, but I still think Elma has a slightly better shot.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 50% - It all hinges on how right Vergeben is. We have 3/5 of his leak confirmed, but the two hardest parts to confirm are still MIA. It's a coin flip until we see either the Minecraft stage or Simon as a fighter. Konami has reps in Snake and the Bomberman assist trophy, so there's no reason they wouldn't want more money for Simon.
Want: 100% - I definitely think Simon is worthy. I'm not getting all the whip action ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) I was looking for with Zero Suit, and he's definitely a famous face amongst old-school Nintendo fans. Along with Mega Man, he was one of the two big-third party icons of the NES era and deserves a spot in the biggest Nintendo crossover. Plus, Konami is totally fine with using characters in Smash, so what's the issue?

Nominations:
Chun-Li Assist Trophy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Well, its fathers day tomorrow, so I am getting roped into family stuff. Might as well post my scores early.

Dark Samus

99% Chance

I did not think I would do such a reversal. But in my opinion Dark Samus is the most likely character rn that we shall rate in this game until we see the finished game.

I did not previously think Sakurai would embrace clones. But with him going in deep with the concept, I feel Dark Samus is the single likeliest echo fighter aside from one other potential candidate or two.

The one two punch of not only having Samus' dark samus styled recolor be replaced and her assist trophy being MIA leaves some questions. We have seen the metroid and mother brain assist trophies, but Dark Samus' is nowhere to be seen. Now if this was just the fact that her assist trophy was gone I would be a bit questionable, but the fact that the skin is gone makes me see her as one of the most likely echos.

Part of what makes me think Dark Samus makes so much sense for an echo is that ironically you can borrow a lot from Samus. Change the neutral B to be like her assist trophy shot, make the down b a Phazon shield from her AT, give her different running and walking animations, and maybe a different final smash. It would honestly be one of the easiest echos to do, especially since the model would have been there to begin with.

75% Want

Ehh she is a villain and that means more Metroid content, so I will be happy. However, that also means that other echos I could want a bit more are less likely. Still, probs one of my higher choices for an echo.

Simon Belmont

80% Chance

Vergeben, I should not have doubted you. With the Vergeben leak looking more legit, Simon goes from a more niche choice to a legitimate one. Furthermore, the fact that his main competiton in Bomberman is an assist and the fact that Snake is back help pave the way for Simon to be in the game. He clearly has the merit to get in, Castlevania is up there with Megaman and classic Nintendo games in terms of NES iconicness. His series has had a slew of critically acclaimed games. Also one other thing is that most other third party characters have taken a hit in likelyness w E3 Passing. Characters I was confident in like Sora or Crash have a greater chance as DLC with the fact that they were not at E3. IMO, outside of echos, the only third party characters rn I would rate over a 50% are Geno, Simon, and for some reason Professor Layton because I feel a bit more confident in him now.


100% Want

Smash is a game of all stars and Nintendo history. Having such a massive series as Castlevania in the roster would be amazing. Also Simon would be so fun to play, I would love to whip it good in all directions.

Now for where yall might disagree with me.

Rex and Pyra

90% Chance

I am less confident in the duo than before, but I am still confident that these two are making it in. Now I can go on an on about how there are merits to them in terms of moveset or in terms of relevancy, but let me dispell some arguements real quick.


1. Their designs were not finalized until September of 2016.

I believe you are referring to this.That refers to facial animations, which I feel would not be relevant to Smash. Honestly, given that they are not present on this, I believe their designs would have been finalized earlier. Note that facial animations are far later than a character being outlined or colored in. With Rex and Pyra absent from outlines or colored in I think I can say that they were likely outlined and colored before April 5, 2016. I feel that would make them reasonably viable in terms of timing.

2. Skye Bennet said she heard nothing about Smash.

At first I was inclined to believe this, as this is weird. However I would like to bring up the example of Matt Mercer. Matt Mercer initially did not know anything about Chrom in smash, but later he changed his tune with tweets about how he had exciting work. Skye Bennett is doing something similar now, which makes me more confident. Also, some people might be concerned with the fact we know that some characters are dubbed already. However, this kind of makes sense, get the characters you need dubbed earlier for trailers and stuff done first. Rex and Pyra will probably be further down the pipeline, so I feel confident they are in.

3. Recency.

The game has been in development for a long long time, I think Sakurai or the higher ups would know about it at least in the project window for Smash Ultimate. IMO recency and timing can be issues, but in a case like this I am inclined to believe that they are nill.

4. Popularity

Some people might go against this and state that Rex and Pyra are not popular, and this game is super fanservicy. While that is true, I find that a bit...odd. For me that strikes as more of an availability heuristic. People on here tend to not like Rex and Pyra, ergo people in general do not like Rex and Pyra. I feel that they will certainly be recognizable and popular with the switch demographic, especially since it is the best selling Xeno Game. Also Elma is kind of hurt with X being stuck on the Wii U and her game not being out in time for the ballot in the states.

In conclusion, the more I think about it, the more confident I am in Rex and Pyra. I know some people are hesitant to rate them high, but I am confident in them.

100% Want

Honestly outside of K. Rool and Crash these two are my most wanted that are feasible for the base game. I got the collector's edition for Christmas and I love the game. Also please give me a Gramp's Back stage. Oh and even if it is in X I think we will get a Neo Los Angeles stage so yeah.


Speaking of Which, I have a preliminary schedule I will share right now. Please not this is not completely final, I will listen to some feedback and whatnot.

6/17 Decidueye, Lycanroc, and Mimikyu
6/18 Excitebiker and Prince Sable
6/19 Isabelle, Shadow, and Octolings
6/20 Bandana Dee and Elma
6/21 Dixie Kong and Isaac
6/22 Rayman and Crash Bandicoot
6/23 Paper Mario and Celica
6/24 Shovel Knight and Shantae
6/25 Geno and Dillon
6/26 Steve and Chibi Robo
6/27 Banjo and Kazooie and Andy
6/28 Professor Layton and Skull Kid
6/29 Lip and Travis Touchdown
6/30 Arle Nadja and Qbby
7/1 Concept: Rhythm Heaven Character and Concept: Arms Character


I took a lot of either highly wanted or previously highly rated characters and made a brief schedule. Essentially this is to rerail us going forward so that we can essentially get ourselves back on track after such a huge shift in the game. If you feel anyone else should make the cut or we should do more structured days, please give feedback on this.

If you are wondering why the OP is kind of behind, I need to fix it up. Deconfirmed Chraracters will be in a new "Graveyard" section in order to avoid cluttering up the ranks. Also I have the scores for the last two we rated before E3, they will be out tomorrow so people can get noms for them. Also until structured days are over, the Top Ten of Chance and Want graphics will stay down. Currently they are broken for me, so i need new ones anyway.

Also Pacack people have discretion to include DLC, I never made a rule explicitly against it.

I’d probably drop in Balloon Fighter, Mach Rider and Mike Jones in there somewhere. With Takamaru’s disconfirmation, there are many retro candidates getting a second lease on life.

 

[Aetheri]

I'm pretty much just here for Dark Samus btw...but I may as well give some quick ratings for the others as well...

Dark Samus

Chance: 40%
Well...its weird howa character's chances can turn around with just a bit of info especially given the new echo fighters in Ultimate.

Couple that with (so far) no confirmation of her return as an assist trophy as well as a curious change in Samus's alt that originally referenced Dark Samus, things do seem rather in favour of Dark Samus. However a lack of confirmation of her assist doesn't mean she won't have one as not all assist trophies in game are accounted for, or even worse she may have been 'Isaac'd' for lack of a better term. Although seeing some more content from the Primes such as the Frigate Orpheon's return as well as Ridley's Meta Ridley alt, perhaps the push for Prime has given Sakurai the opportunity to add more content from tge Primes. That and' as an echo fighter, Dark Samus would be relatively easy to implement which is a pretty big point in her favour given the limited time devoted to newcomers this time around.

Also I should note how appropriate the term 'Echo Fighter' is for Dark Samus specifically.

Want: 100%
My second most wanted newcomer! While I would very much prefer her to be more unique, considering her abilities is more than enough for a unique moveset, if she were added as an echo fighter, as the kids say...

WE TAKE THOSE!

Simon Belmont
Chance: 70%
Leak's looking good but still not fully set in stone until his confirmation tbh

Want: 60%
He'd be cool

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 10%
I've been advocating that they are not likely due to timing...DLC maybe, base game not likely

Want: 30%
Honestly I like XC2 but their characters were actually quite dull tbh...their concept as foghters could be interesting but I've been supporting Elma since XCX...

 

[Ze Diglett]

Dark Samus
Chance: 20%
Its absence as both a Samus alt and as an Assist Trophy thus far are more than a bit conspicuous, especially considering the new focus on Echo Fighters. I'm of the opinion that we're almost certainly getting at least a few more Echoes in the base roster, and given the information we have now, I think Dark Samus is one of the most likely contenders, especially considering how keen people were to ***** about how Metroid "needs more love" before the Ridley reveal. However, there's also the distinct possibility that it's just one of the Assist Trophies we haven't seen yet, so I'm not inclined to go much higher than this.

Want: 0%
I'm of the opinion that Metroid is more than good in terms of character representation where it is - it was fine before we got Ridley, in my opinion, but I'm alright with what we have now. Adding Dark Samus as an Echo Fighter on top of that, in my opinion, would be just a bit excessive for a franchise that's seen as little action as Metroid has in the past decade or so, not to mention it would be a disservice to the character considering what it can do that Samus can't. But I guess I can't say I actively don't want it, especially if it takes up practically zero development time, so whatever, I guess.

Rex & Pyra
Chance: 80%
I know I put them as most overrated (should have been Decidueye or Captain Toad, in retrospect), but considering I include DLC in my scores, it wouldn't feel right at all to rate them lower than this. Even if they miss the boat for the base roster, which I very much think they will considering how little content from beyond 2016 has appeared so far (and even of that, Odyssey was largely finished development as of January and BOTW was notoriously delayed multiple times, so I don't think either of those really count as beyond 2016), they're practically shoo-ins for DLC. The only way I can see them missing the roster entirely is if Sakurai adds Elma to the base roster and decides that's enough in terms of Xenoblade representation (unlikely, considering how much of a rising star franchise Xenoblade's become and how much the man himself loves Xenoblade 2) or if he takes a gamble and pulls someone else from Xenoblade 2, which I would be more than okay with.

Want: 30%
...this, I'm kind of conflicted on. I, personally, love Xenoblade 2, with it easily being my favorite Switch-exclusive currently and one of my favorite games period, and I would love to see it represented in Smash. However, as much as I love Xenoblade 2's cast of characters, I'm not a huge fan of Rex, and would prefer any of the other main Drivers from that game get in over him. However, I acknowledge that probably won't happen due to Rex having muh main protag privilege, so I've resigned myself largely to the fact that if I want Xenoblade 2 to be represented in Smash, Rex & Pyra is about the best I can hope for. And I think I'm okay with that.

Simon Belmont
Chance: 60%
I'm willing to give this guy a 60/40 shot. He's on my prediction roster, after all. The Vergeben leak is one thing (I, personally, am willing to give him Ridley being revealed at E3 and Snake coming back, as I don't think either of them really could have been considered "easy guesses" by any measure), but there's also the growing trend of more than one rep for third-party companies to consider, which I can see Konami getting now that Snake's back with us, and with his main competition in Bomberman out of the running, it's basically a straight shot for Simon in that case. There's also the matter of Sakurai being a fan of the original Castlevania, which may bolster his chances. Even if he misses the base roster, due to the Vergeben leak implicating his inclusion, he'll likely become a very popular request, which, as we've seen with Ridley and Bayonetta, is enough to push even the most unconventional of characters through the gate.

Want: 10%
His moveset potential's kind of cool, he has a lot of history, and he's quite popular, from what I hear. However, I'm not familiar enough with Castlevania to actively want it represented in Smash, not to mention realistic and gritty human fighters like him and Snake usually don't do much for me in the setting of Smash. Also, sorry, but whips are lame. Unless they're also swords. And on fire.

Nominating Geno [Rerate] x5

 

[andimidna]

How I’d rate for being in the base roster vs being in the base roster or being dlc is completely different. I’m going under the assumption that this is for the main game and dlc ratings will come later when not everybody we want makes the cut once the game comes out : )

Also oops didn’t get to finish my post after asking that question. That fleshed out final smash post was perfect, thanks. That was kinda a lot to do all in one day oop

Impa:
Chance: 28%
I’m still really not so sure. I think it’s warranted. The Zelda series characters is already so full of cloney movesets and with there being less newcomers, I’m not as sure about a unique Impa newcomer. But this is a slightly higher score overall bc the likelihood she is added as an echo character rose more than the likelihood that she’s added as a unique character fell.
Want: 75%
I love the character, but this fell because it’s less likely we’d get a unique Impa, which I’d want much more. I’m sick of the Zelda roster being so disappointing

Ashley:
I’ve seen ppl tack on a Wario character on their rosters for awhile for no reason, but it’s becoming clearer that she’s actually a rising star and marketable character. Her assist wasn’t seen, but same with a handful of others
Chance: 19%
Want: 75%
She’s p cool. No personal attachment

Chrom:
Things do seem kind of set up for this, huh? I can’t imagine another Marth clone, but Ike’s moveset with Marcina-esque stats seems reasonable. Ike’s already a lot faster in this game with a lot less cooldown too. It seems a little redundant but it’d be cool to see that hd model. Kinda crazy how circumstances and timing led to Chrom and Lyn not being playable despite their importance to the series, but it doesn’t seem like there’s much to go back for.
Chance: 18.5%
Want: 60%
I think it’d make the series look bad as though it doesn’t offer much variety, and he definitely wasn’t one of my favorites from Awakening, but I know I’d still play him. I love the FE characters

Ok, ok to what I guess is actually still going today:

Dark Samus:
Removing that alt wasn’t even necessary to add this character, but they did it despite it being a popular color swap, and there’s literally no good reason why unless Dark Samus is an echo. I didn’t expect this character before bc I felt Ridley had to come first, but he’s here. It’s just perfect timing and circumstances.
Chance: 65%
Another huge rise from even my rating of calling her/it underrated. Just thinking about it more and it seems so logical idek
Want: 70%
Sure throw some more Metroid characters in there. I won’t play her/it because I don’t play samus, but others will, so cool yay

Rex and Pyra:
I don’t think they’re huge selling points and would’ve been conceived as playable characters later in the game. Whether they’d have been working on the veterans for that time period making it not matter or unable to cram them and those prioritized before them in by release is almost impossible to guess. I really don’t know, so I’m gonna split it up into 3 sets of guesses.
Use the first one
Chance of base roster: 36%
Chance of DLC: 54%
Chance of DLC if not in base roster: 90%
And that’s just the offchance we don’t get new characters as DLC, which ofc I don’t see as likely since that precedent is set, the money is there, and they’re putting their all into the game it seems. Especially if this was a short development cycle (which might not actually be the case), there’s probably gonna be cut content due to timing.
Want: 65%
The concept is cool but her design is messy and his voice isn’t likable. I like the idea as a fighter though

Simon Belmont:
Haven’t looked too much into the leak and why it’s been given attention. From what I know they’ve been credible in the past but the only thing right so far is ridley? I guess I should look into it if I wanna carry my weight here lmao, I just find it way more fun to talk about this stuff without leaks. But yea, everything’s in perfect alignment for him, really. Snake’s in do the relations are fine, Bomberman’s an assist so that competition is gone. It’s a clear, iconic pick
Chance: 55%
Want: 80%
Idk. Chains and whips excite me

Ok I think I’m finally done wew

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Dark Samus:

Chance: 40% - Although I don't think not appearing as an AT in the demo does much for anyone's chances, as many ATs weren't present, that they changed Samus' old Dark Samus color to something unrelated is highly suspicious, there's pretty much no reason to do so. Any previous concerns over having "too many Samuses" were also squashes with us getting three Links, and Ridley's inclusion means that they can be more relaxed with any other potential Metroid inclusion as the character won't face massive backlash for simply not being Ridley. The one thing that does get in her way is that I could see them prioritizing other echo characters over her, she's neither relevant or hugely popular, and Metroid's representation is looking good as is, so they might deem it more beneficial to include other potential echo characters over her.

Want: 85% - Would really love it, I imagine her as being a more direct and less floaty Samus, which could make for a very different playstyle. Metroid's representation would also be really good with her addition, it would be set for the rest of Smash's history.

Rex and Pyra:

Chance: 25% - After putting a lot of thought into the subject since we last rated them I don't really feel like they're all that likely anymore, Elma was more fortunate as far as release timing goes, and Pyra's VA stating that she hasn't done any work on Smash also puts a dent in their chances as we know English voice acting has been done for the game. There's of course the off-chance that their concept art was finished just in time or something like that, but I'm not banking on it, I think they'll probably have to wait for DLC, at which point they're basically guaranteed.

Want: 0% - I don't mind anime at all, but their character designs are just incredibly bad, it's like a parody. I'm not going to throw a fit if they get in or anything, but I'd lie if I said I wouldn't be happy to see them miss the train.

Simon Belmont:

Chance: 90% - I'm willing to take this on the chin if I'm wrong here, but everything is looking up for Simon. The Vergeben leak is of course the primary reason as it has a lot to back it up with atm, but that in combination with Konami being back at the table + Bomberman (aka competition) being deconfirmed really paves the way for him. I'm extremely confident he's happening and consider it merely a question of time.

Want: 80% - I love the first game and Super Castlevania IV, both of which feature Simon of course, so it'd be very cool to see him. His whip could also make for a very unique fighting style, and just bringing Castlevania into Smash would be fantastic in itself, it's got a lot of potential for great stages, and its music is top notch.

 

[Deleted member]

Dark Samus

Chance: 10%

I don't see the potential for this character to be an echo, and let me get my argument out of the way about this immediately: "echoes" are just direct clones that have simplistic changes. Lucina, Daisy and Dark Pit have barely any changes to their sets. Dark Samus does not work as an echo because it has an entirely separate pool of abilities and doesn't come close to working as a Samus echo fighter. What people are saying is Dark Samus could be a quasi clone of Samus, and that certainly is possible, but is more along the lines of Falco or Luigi. That's a huge difference!

As far as that scenario of a quasi clone goes, I don't see Dark Samus as a particularly viable candidate for the process. That is because Dark Samus' specials, to be remotely accurate, would have to be reworked in large parts from Samus. Dark Samus is a monster who took the form of Samus and as seen in its AT has very flashy attacks all its own. All the work necessary to make it worthwhile defeats the point of the cloning process. The other big thing that hurts Dark Samus is that Ridley exists. Sakurai already said adding Ridley was a big struggle, I doubt he'd then spent time on another Metroid character. The logic for if Dark Samus is an echo fighter/clone is sound and if I'm wrong about the echo stuff, maybe Dark Samus has a decent shot. The other positive here is simply lack of confirmation. As we get further and further, if we see no Dark Samus assist trophy, its chances naturally shoot up.

Want: 60%

Despite my theories about its chances I'd really enjoy Dark Samus. I've played tons of Samus and always felt that we were missing out not having some divergent other set based on the character. She's just very campy, slow and methodical, that's fine and I enjoy the playstyle but I do get tired sometimes of the floatiness when you're falling to the stage, plus constantly having to rely on the charge shot (please let her have KO moves in Ultimate). Plenty of other small things... a Samus who doesn't have a slow tether, a villainous Samus who has intimidating animations, representing Metroid Prime as a character.

The one big negative is that in the end, it is another Samus, can't escape that. I can empathize that an original Prime Hunter or other character would have the edge in originality. Hell, unlikely as it is, I'd prefer to see Kraid.

Simon Belmont

Chance: Abstain

This character's chances rely entirely on a leak and I'm not going to weigh in on that. I've not looked into the leak though and I honestly just don't care to theorize about this when it may all end up being a waste of time.

Want: 25%

I'm not the biggest Castlevania fan, my taste in characters would prefer to see Dracula and that's obviously not going to happen. Simon is the cookie cutter, generic Castlevania protagonist who has a whip and would mirror the gameplay of the nostalgia NES Castlevania games. I can imagine it would be a similar situation to Ryu where Sakurai makes Simon's movements all resemble the NES games and any fan of Castlevania probably loves that. Outside of fan service I just don't see a whip and other magic that Simon inevitably gets as an especially original, interesting or fun moveset. What might help is a whip set could be fun to play, but I can't judge that until I play it for myself.

Rex and Pyra

Chance: 40%

I'd say this is a toss up now, likelier if there's DLC and I'll factor that into my chance score. Every character added so far is an established character and Sakurai has gone over their popularity. Rex and Pyra is too new to qualify for any requests or be on the ballot, so they have to entirely bank on their relevant game. However that game is so new it doesn't even work as an advertisement as directly as say, Corrin, the timing is awful if you want to believe that. Plus you know, Rex and Pyra star in a JRPG where the main characters change every sequel, so their time to be relevant has come and gone compared to Bayonetta who has a new game or the other third parties, those being the best examples of ad space.

So what even puts Rex and Pyra that high? Sakurai has directly said he loves their game, Smash 4 and Fire Emblem shows you the extents Sakurai goes to when he's allowed to run rampant adding characters he likes. Rex and Pyra are exactly the character he'd add and they even have a duo gimmick that lets them stand out in the Smash cast. The timing is bad, but it isn't the worst, it's almost perfect for DLC. If not for the prospect of DLC I'd give them about half the percent.

Want: 10%

I'm conflicted over this one as I do like JRPGs and the idea of a duo JRPG character has any appeal. However I generally like duo or similar gimmicks on paper then hate them in game. I'm as well not fully convinced that I will like XC2 when I get around to it, looks to be an improvement over Xenoblade X but the MMO lite gameplay really holds back the series as a big turn based fan, and there's definitely some parts of the design aesthetic that plainly suck.

To get into the nitty gritty of it, I don't terribly dislike Pyra's design, parts of it are decent. That's no glowing endorsement but then we come to Rex... this is seriously one of the absolute worst main character designs. About as bad as this guy. I am sure that this game has other choices that are both likable and not wearing a toilet helmet so it's a shame we're stuck having these two as the representatives.