Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DaUsername]

Capitan Todd
Chance and want: N/A

Impa
Chance: 60%
She has a good shot of being a clone/echo, and she's pretty much the only recurring Zelda character who hasn't had a major appearance in Smash yet so something might happen.
Want: N/A

Chrom
Chance: 30%
Another potential clone, but I'm not sure if Sakurai would want to add a 7th FE character (and a 3rd Awakening character), clone or otherwise. Anything is possible, though.
Want: N/A

Ashley
Chance: 35%
While she's decently popular, especially in Japan, I'm still not too sure she'll end up being playable. She might just end up being qn AT again.
Want: 55%
She seems like she would be fun to play as.

And now for the important one
K. Rool
Chance: 75%
I never thought I'd be optimistic for his chances again, but here we are.
For this game, popularity/fan demand seem to matter more than ever (just look at Erimir 's list), and there's no denying that K. Rool has plenty of popularity when it comes to Smash. There's still a possibility that he won't make it, but I'm confident that this is finally his time to shine.
Want: 100%
He's been my most wanted for years, hopefully we can finally see it happen.

Noms: Concept: Every Stage Ever* Gets Brought Back x5
*Except Miiverse, Probably

 

[Ura]

One of us!

Chance: 95%

The newcomer I feel the most safe in saying will be in the game. K. Rool was more or less in the same boat that Ridley was in and with the latter in I think he's very likely to appear in this game. One of the few newcomers that enjoys massive popularity in both the West and Japan.

Want: 100%

I've wanted K. Rool since the days of Melee and he feels like the last big-time villain left to add in Smash. Relevancy be damned it's time for his finest hour.

Not Sheik

Chance: 55%

She has a chance as a Sheik Echo Fighter but on her own she has no chance.

Want: 35%

Meh. She's in she's not it doesn't really matter to me.

Still laying on the floor to this day...

Chance: 60%

Only on the condition that he's an Ike Echo Fighter. Otherwise he has no chance. I also think it's either him or Celica as a Robin Echo Fighter.

Want: 1%

Not interested though as an Echo Fighter I wouldn't mind him.

You better learn her name!

Chance: 90%

Easily the character some people take for granted in terms of popularity. I feel that Ashley was the #1 choice on the Japanese side of the Ballot.

Want: 35%

That being said i'm not really interested.

Glorified Toad

Chance: 15%

Have no idea why people think he's so likely. Toad is confirmed to return as Peach/Daisy's Neutral B. It doesn't exactly deconfirm him but I don't see him as likely.

Want: 10%

I'll pass.

 

[Deleted member]

Figure that I may as well make my trek here a few more times.

King K. Rool - B (75%)

It doesn't get more obvious than this. He's got everything going for him now that recency has been established as not being nearly as important as before. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate by bringing back everyone, bringing back most stages, and adding Ridley, a character Sakurai twice deemed impossible to make, shows that this game is all about the fans, not just showcasing recent development in Nintendo's history. This significantly favors K. Rool as he has evidence of Sakurai recognizing his major fan support given that his Mii Costume uses unique assests. The decisions made with this game favors K. Rool, not the opposite. He only doesn't get in if Sakurai does not think DK merits a newcomer, hence not the 100%.

Want - A (100%)

Now that Bomberman has been disconfirmed, he's my most wanted newcomer. Add him and the roster is perfect.

I'll be back to rate Mimikyu and Chorus Men.

 

[Delzethin]

Hey, TCT~Phantom ? I wonder if maybe it'd be best splitting tomorrow's rerates across two days, since 6 characters at once would probably get overwhelming. How about covering Simon, Dark Samus, and Rex & Pyra tomorrow, then the three Pokémon on the 17th?

I'll give my thoughts on today's five later. Need time to figure out what I want to say.

 

[slambros]

Ashley

Chance: 40%
I think her chance has increased for sure. She is one of the most requested characters in Japan and her Assist Trophy hasn't been shown yet.

Want: 20%
I've never really been a fan of hers but I'd be down for more WarioWare representation.

Captain Toad

Chance: 30%
Captain Toad is highly relevant and here to stay, though he's in a situation similar to Villager pre-Smash 4 because the character is relatively passive.

Want: 0%
From a personal standpoint, I don't think he'd be too good of an addition.

Chrom

Chance: 5%
I don't find it all that likely. Other Echo Characters would likely get more priority.

Want: 0%
I really like Chrom as a character but I'm not sure if I want the character over other Fire Emblem characters, let alone characters in general. There's simply too many Fire Emblem characters already in for me to want a character like Chrom in Smash.

Impa

Chance: 20%
Her chance is higher thanks to Echo characters, but she might be low priority.

Want: 50%
I like Impa. I think she'd be neat, and I definitely want a new Zelda representative of any sort that isn't another Link, Zelda, or Ganon.

K. Rool

Chance: 75%
Nintendo is focusing on more important characters based on Inkling and Ridley so K. Rool's chance is definitely high.

Want: 100%
I'm interested in getting K. Rool because it'd be another heavy character. I know we just got Ridley, but heavier characters are still in short supply.

 

[Deleted member]

We're playing an entirely different game now. It's exciting! In hindsight all veterans returning makes a ton of sense, but I was never one to think outside the box. Let's see if I can be more accurate this time around.

K. Rool

Chance: 85%
This game is clearly drawing heavily on popularity. Almost every poll I've seen has been dominated by K. Rool, so relevance shouldn't be a factor here.

Want: 51%
I barely like him. Barely.

Impa

Chance: 40%
Pretty popular, easy echo candidate, of which I think we're going to get 2 or 3 more to pad out the roster. I don't think Tingle or Skull Kid have been spotted yet though, and it's not like Impa was an AT before so her absence doesn't raise many eyebrows.

Want: 65%
One of the better possible echoes out there.

Ashley

Chance: 40%
She's popular in Japan, would have a unique mage moveset, and her AT hasn't been spotted. I'm still unsure about whether or not her overall popularity is enough to carry her to a roster spot, given the fewer amount of newcomers we're getting this time around.

Want: 80%
Ever since I realized she's the closed thing I'll ever get to Kamek, I've started to genuinely like her.

Chrom

Chance: 40%
We haven't seen Robin's Final Smash despite a ton of Final Smashes making appearances already, and I think the Chrom recolor is gone since the blue costume has a blue cape instead of a white one. The echo branding could give him his redemption since he has been considered before. It's also good that the reps argument probably doesn't apply to echoes since they're explicitly not apart of the series tally.

Want: 60%
Haven't played Awakening yet (sorry I just don't think it's ever been on sale), but I did like him in Warriors, albeit less than Lucina. More Matt Mercer is never a bad thing though.

Captain Toad:

Chance: 30%
Toad has always been well-liked, but I don't think he's the kind of character that wows the general audience. Even though Peach/Daisy using Toad doesn't disconfirm the Captain, I can't help but feel that the fact Toad now helps Peach/Daisy out with throws is some sort of compromise to Toad fans. A terrible one, but something Sakurai might feel is enough. But still, Toad is a long standing pillar of the Mario franchise who has plenty of fans.

Want: 80%
I've always loved Toad. It's a shame he hasn't made it in yet.

 

[Skyblade12]

K. Rool:
Chance: 95%
One of the most consistently top requested characters in the fan base. Yes, his support in online polls could indicate that he has higher popularity among the older demographic (though there’s a clear *citation needed mark there). Fortunately, the Ballot, which I believe was created specifically for this game, was an online poll. The same arguments about engagement and demographics apply to it as all others. Are online polls 100% representative? No. But they do their best to be, and to reach and draw opinions from as many fans as possible. Bayonetta was ranked high in several, and I do not doubt her support. But I’m not going to throw away the data we have because she wasn’t the highest ranked in our polls.

Remember, fan desire was why veterans were chosen, and they were always high pollers, especially in Japan. Ridley was also a regular highly polled character (who hadn’t had a game since 2010 except for a postgame extra appearance in a remake) who got in.

I have very few doubts about K. Rool. Between the fan focus, online support during the ballot, and the unique costume, he seems like the closest thing we have to a lock.

Want: 75%
Definitely one of my top choices for remaining characters.


Ashley:
Chance: 35%
Has massive fan support, especially in Japan, but little else. Sure, she got a costume. So did Takamaru. Characters in Wario Ware barely show up in their series, and she has nothing but a song and a couple images to give her a move pool.
Want: 60%
That song is awesome, though, and her design is solid. Definitely other characters who should get in first, but I wouldn’t object too much.


Impa:
Chance: 50%
Possibility of a Sheik Echo Fighter. One of the most consistently requested (and reappearing) Zelda characters, she could easily get in either as an Echo, or possibly her own fighter. But is she the first choice if they have time to make more Echoes? How many more will we get? I have no idea.
Want: 80%
Hyrule Warriors really made me want this character a lot more.


Chrom:
Chance: 25%
He could show up as an Echo Fighter, but with Awakening two games away, it feels like his time has passed. Maybe it’s another day for him, but I think the most likely Echo Fighter we’d get from this series is Cecilia as an Echo if Robin.
Want: 50%
As an Echo, I wouldn’t mind him. Nor would I be excited for him.


Captain Toad:
Chance: 25%
Not sure how he would work. Not sure if the strength of his support base. Seems like good Assist Trophy material.
Want: 50%
Wouldn’t object, wouldn’t be thrilled. Other characters I’d put in first.

 

[Opossum]

One of us!

Chance: 95%

The newcomer I feel the most safe in saying will be in the game. K. Rool was more or less in the same boat that Ridley was in and with the latter in I think he's very likely to appear in this game. One of the few newcomers that enjoys massive popularity in both the West and Japan.

Want: 100%

I've wanted K. Rool since the days of Melee and he feels like the last big-time villain left to add in Smash. Relevancy be damned it's time for his finest hour.

Not Sheik

Chance: 55%

She has a chance as a Sheik Echo Fighter but on her own she has no chance.

Want: 35%

Meh. She's in she's not it doesn't really matter to me.

Still laying on the floor to this day...

Chance: 60%

Only on the condition that he's an Ike Echo Fighter. Otherwise he has no chance. I also think it's either him or Celica as a Robin Echo Fighter.

Want: 1%

Not interested though as an Echo Fighter I wouldn't mind him.

You better learn her name!

Chance: 90%

Easily the character some people take for granted in terms of popularity. I feel that Ashley was the #1 choice on the Japanese side of the Ballot.

Want: 35%

That being said i'm not really interested.

Glorified Toad

Chance: 15%

Have no idea why people think he's so likely. Toad is confirmed to return as Peach/Daisy's Neutral B. It doesn't exactly deconfirm him but I don't see him as likely.

Want: 10%

I'll pass.

If anything, I think Toad actually HELPS Captain Toad, but not because of Peach...but because of Daisy.

Daisy uses Blue Toad when Toadette would have arguably made more sense. Instead I'm thinking Captain Toad just has a Toadette alt.

 

[Starbound]

We haven't not had a unique Mario newcomer since Brawl,

Anyways,

K. Rool: 40% chance / 85% want
Popularity seems to matter a lot more now than in the past, and the croc king has that in bounds. One of the more likely newcomers imo.

Chrom: 4% chance / 20% want
He wouldn't work as an echo as Sakurai views him as a Marth/Ike hybrid. That's not echo territory and he's not popular enough to warrant a full slot.

Ashley: 10% chance / 10% want
idk I just don't see the appeal here. Mage lolis are always popular in Japan and I guess that's why Sakurai takes note of her popularity. But like what would she do other than being a generic mage? There's nothing special she can do.

Captain Toad: 8% chance / 60% want
Would rather have regular Toad, and I think Sakurai knows the regular version is more popular, going even back to Melee when Toad topped popularity polls. The increased prominence of Toad in the game through both Peach and Daisy seems to be his way of acknowledging the character's popularity, and I don't think the 'can't jump' gimmick is interesting enough to warrant inclusion.

Nomz: Tapu Koko x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Anyways,

Might wanna re-read that. Pacack's saying we've ALWAYS had a unique Mario newcomer since Brawl.

 

[LittleKrool]

There's nothing special she can do.

She has Red, a demon that can transform into anything, I think people seem to forget Ashley and Red work as a team. Like Rosalina and Luma, Red on his own has a lot of moveset potential to add onto Ashley. He could work as her specials, Up-B would no doubt be Red blasting her up as her witch broom.

 

[Quetzal77]

K Rool
Chance: 50% / Want: 70%
After Ridley, anything is possible. Let's remember K Rool had a Mii costume last game. However, I don't think he's quite as big as Ridley (no pun intended) and he hasn't had a recent appearance... so Sakurai may instead add in Dixie and Funky and call it a day.

Captain Toad
Chance: 80% / Want: 80%
He's the most viable "current" Mario character and since Pauline was deconfirmed he basically has no competition. I'm not sure we're getting another Mario newcomer after Daisy but if there is one I'm sure it's him.

Chrom
Chance: 25% / Want: 0%
It's a low rating but higher than I gave him before. He could make it as an echo of Marth, but that would make him the third Marth clone and would mean a grand total of 4 characters sharing that moveset as a base. He could be an Ike echo, but that wouldn't make sense canonically since he taught Lucina to fight and should therefore fight like her. He would also be the third character from one game in a series with 16 main entries that already is overrepresented in many people's opinion, including Sakurai to an extent.

Ashley
Chance: 10% / Want: abstain
I haven't seen anything to make me think she's more likely now than when she was first rated. I don't remember what I rated her then but I would guess it was somewhere around 10.

Impa
Chance: 20% / Want: 100%
She could be a Sheik echo and since the main 4 Zelda characters are now all representing different games she wouldn't feel out of place beside them. Not convinced Sakurai is adding a Zelda newcomer though.

Nominations: Neku x5

 

[Starbound]

Might wanna re-read that. Pacack's saying we've ALWAYS had a unique Mario newcomer since Brawl.

Double negatives are hard... ;/

 

[Wyoming]

Captain Toad:

Chance: 30%
Look at it this way: Waluigi's disconfirmed and Daisy is in as a mere clone. This leaves his opposition as Paper Mario and Geno. I do think Toad getting in as a more active role in Peach's moveset does hurt his chances a bit - to me it felt like Sakurai's way of integrating Toad into the action but couldn't find a way to make him interesting as a fighter. What keeps his chances alive is the fact he is distinguishable enough from Toad to still be in and he remains fairly popular as a character.

I don't think Toadette not being present in Daisy's moves is any indicator. They've never been tied together and Blue Toad is more common in the actual Mario games.

Want: 20%
I still don't like the idea of a Toad that doesn't represent the core abilities of the character/species and only the Captain himself. Since the former is disconfirmed, I feel no desire to see him. 20% due to getting what I mostly wanted already from this game.

King K. Rool:

Chance: 50%
I do think the project's goal from the get-go increases his chances: it's about fanservice, so undoubtedly this means good news for him. Even if he's not a fighter, I expect him in some capacity now. But...this is about his chances as a fighter.

So why the half chance? Wellll....he still lacks that relevance. Ridley's not only popular, but also relevant in Metroid. He garners votes from old and new. K. Rool definitely has a lot of admirers, but on a grand scale, I do wonder how his popularity is among newer and/or younger gamers, which may skew perspective.

But he did get that Mii costume out of nowhere, in his classic look to boot, so he must have been fairly popular for the ballot. I do wonder if that's Sakurai way of telling us he doesn't know how to approach him as a playable character though.

He's in a very weird spot for me. I am not a fan of the high expectations and complacency some Kutthroats are showing. K. Rool and Ridley are two different beasts: one has been in every Smash game and talked about post-release by Sakurai. The other got trophies and a Mii costume. They aren't on the same boat (or ship, if you prefer hehehe)

Want: 100%
I've wanted him since Brawl. He's essentially the missing piece to make this game "Ultimate" to me. Sure, I like Dixie, Phoenix Wright, and Black Shadow - but I could take them or leave them in Smash. K. Rool's really the last character I am truly excited about.

Impa:

Chance: 60%
Out of everyone mentioned as an echo fighter, I think she (and Chrom) have the most legs to stand on. Prominent, decently popular, and could work as a Sheik alt/clone with her moveset.

Want: 50%
I think her being an echo fighter works excellently. Circumstances and timing affected her chances of being in Smash (i.e: Sheik was relevant and had a neat mechanic at the time) but now with glorified clones, she has the door open to join the fray. I don't mind her, but don't hate her. I think she's that character that suits the echo fighter mantra.

Ashley:

Chance: 30%
She's not been seen yet, and since Arcade Bunny is in as an assist, that means Sakurai is aware of the promotion she's been in. However, we've only seen half the assist trophies in the game, and about 15-20 are missing from past installments so far. That still gives it a 50/50 split for her to be an AT once again.

I am not sure if she's someone that fits the project's objective. She's decently popular, sure, but not exactly a big hitter. She can't be an echo, so the potentially sparse time to make unique newcomers would have to been spent on her. I am not really sure if she's one character they'll see as beneficial to do so, but hey...it's possible.

Want: 55%
Quite cute and could be fun to play as. Why not?

Chrom:

Chance: 50%
Ha! Funny old game, is it? I gave him a 0.1% the last time. And yet, here we are...

Echo fighters and noticeably absent from Robin's footage makes it rather convenient for him. Sakurai knows he was well liked despite giving him the shaft in Smash 4. But since the project plan was to deliver the fanservice, this is good news for Chrom. Lyndis has been disconfirmed, and the latest FE that isn't Fates released too late/after the ballot was done to have any data on those characters in desire. Not an issue for Chrom, though...who benefited from still being the latest hero known globally back then.

I suppose the issue is Sakurai did say Fire Emblem got too many of the good stuff in Smash 4, which may linger on his mind when deciding his status. Not to mention Fire Emblem already has an echo and a clone to begin with, so the idea of a 2nd and 3rd character respectively with those attributes from the same franchise might be seen as unappealing to him.

Want: Abstain
I don't want another Fire Emblem character, but at this point I don't really care...

Nominating Ninten x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Captain Toad
Chance - 20%
His chance overall took a huge hit with Toad in general getting more action in Peach's moves. Since there is limited space by the sound of it, I don't think the little guy can get in.
Want - 100%
He's cool and I always like the Toad species. I like just general Toad more, but I'd be fine with either.

King K. Rool
Chance - 50%
Since there seems to be a lot towards making the fans happy so far, I could see him being picked. However unlike others that did well on the ballot in theory, he got left behind in his series.
Want - 90%
He'd be cool. I think Dixie deserves it more, but I feel King K Rool offers more to be unique.

Impa
Chance - 15%
Not seeing it happening still. I really don't know if she is that popular or known enough.
Want - 10%
I'd rather her replace Sheik than anything, but I don't really care too much.

Ashley
Chance - 50%
She is in the popularity boat with King K Rool with less legacy, but she has more relevancy.
Want - 100%
Cute little witch girl is cute. Also she has more moveset potential with just that than some other not as popular but fussed about cute girl.

Chrom
Chance - 30%
He stayed relevant and popular for a bit, so I could see Sakurai being pushed into giving the poor guy the Echo treatment after he literally got kicked to the curb and mocked.
Want - 80%
I have no connection to him, but the level of disrespect to him and his fans could use some patch work.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Captain Toad
Chance: 80% / Want: 80%
He's the most viable "current" Mario character and since Pauline was deconfirmed he basically has no competition. I'm not sure we're getting another Mario newcomer after Daisy but if there is one I'm sure it's him.

Basically has no competition? Dude... Paper Mario and Geno don't appreciate that, I'm sure. It's true that one of his top competitors is out of the running now with Waluigi's Assist Trophy reveal, but Captain Toad definitely still has competition, and some stiff competition at that (much more stiff than ****ing Pauline, anyway). It's okay to think he's more likely than not to get in (even if 80% is a bit steep by any measure), but claiming he's an outright lock for the hypothetical Mario slot and that he has no competitors is just plain ignorant.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Ze Diglett Wouldn't Paper Mario be in his own universe?

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Captain Toad
Chance: 5%
After seeing that toad is a bigger part of Peach's moveset, it makes me think he's not gonna end up being playable.

Want: 100%

Spoiler

King K. Rool
Chance: 50%
Ridley is in the game. Memes are more than dreams.

Want: 5%
I'd be happy to see the K. Rool people happy.

Impa
Chance: 10%
We already have three links, why would they put in any more Zelda characters?

Want: 10%
I like her design.

Ashley
Chance: 20%
They rubbed in the fact that Waluigi is still an assist but Ashley was never shown.

Want: 60%
ASHLEY A CUTE! CUUUUUUUTE!!!

Chrom
Chance: 60%
>Plus, you and Ike are too similar. No point in having two characters that are pretty much carbon copies. Am I right?
>(((echo))) characters announced

Want: 100%
Please give me my boy daddy Sakurai.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Ze Diglett Wouldn't Paper Mario be in his own universe?

Considering the Paper Mario stage in 3DS falls under the existing Mario universe, probably not.

 

[harukaamami]

She has Red, a demon that can transform into anything, I think people seem to forget Ashley and Red work as a team. Like Rosalina and Luma, Red on his own has a lot of moveset potential to add onto Ashley. He could work as her specials, Up-B would no doubt be Red blasting her up as her witch broom.

Well, I personally felt that Ashley fans themselves have always been underselling Ashley by pretending she would be a single character. If Ashley is in Smash, they would definitely use the "Ashley and Red" naming for the character.

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

K. Rool
Chance: 66%
I think his chances are better than ever now. If Ridley could get in, anyone can.

Want: 66%
I do want Dixie more, but I want both at the end. DK deserves it, Dixie and K. Rool deserve it.

Impa
Chance: 50%
Gonna put it at a coinflip for a Sheik echo. I don't think she'd get in otherwise.

Want: 50%
I like her more than Sheik, but I don't really enjoy playing as Sheik as it is, so I probably wouldn't play her and can't be excited for her, but it would still be cool to see her in.

Ashley
Chance: 75%
I don't think absence of assist trophy means much...in most cases. In Ashley's case, though, it could mean a lot. Plus, I hear she's very popular in Japan.

Want: 63%
I've never played a WarioWare game and don't plan to, but sure. She's cute and looks like she'd be fun to play.

Chrom
Chance: 15%
Higher now, but I honestly still doubt this. It would be kind of random to add Chrom in now. He's a meme, he's not actually that highly requested.

Want: 4%
I have a specific guideline for who I want in a new FE character and Chrom fits absolutely none of it. I like him fine as a character, but echo or not, I don't want him in Smash.

Captain Toad
Chance: 8%
Yeah, the cap isn't just a regular Toad...but I can't imagine Sakurai giving Toad more prominence in Peach's and now Daisy's moveset while also making a playable Captain Toad.

Want: 55%
Since I'm expecting fewer newcomers, cap drops a bit. Would still like to see him in, though.

Nominate Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x5 (note: Change current "Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist" to this)

 

[Cycrum]

Captain Toad

Chance: 50%
He has a solid chance of being the next Mario rep now that Daisy and Waluigi have been confirmed and disconfirmed (R.I.P.), respectively. The captain has appeared in nearly every mainline Mario game since his debut in Galaxy, and has quite the moveset potential despite his inability to jump. Although it seems that Sakurai and the Smash team may not have much time to add too many newcomers, Captain Toad is easily one of the frontrunners to be added in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Want: Abstain
I've never played Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker nor have I played a mainline Mario game yet. He would make a pretty fun addition to the roster, though.

King K. Rool

Chance: 27%
King K. Rool likely performed solidly on the ballot, given that he had a Mii costume in the final pack of DLC. However, he is hardly known to the newest (and perhaps the second newest) generation of gamers due to his absence from recent mainline Donkey Kong games. His best chance is if he really did top the ballot, which I am uncertain about given that Bayonetta, who was not discussed too prevalently during the ballot speculation period, won the whole thing.

Want: Abstain
I have yet to play any of the Donkey Kong Country games with him in it. I wouldn't mind his addition, though.

Chrom
Chance: 45%
The announcement of Echo Fighters does greatly increase his chances since he can potentially be an Echo of Ike. However, Sakurai may be uncertain to put yet another Fire Emblem Awakening character in the roster. Also, without Chrom, Robin may lose his/her Pair Up Final Smash, which represented a mechanic introduced in Awakening.

Want: Abstain
I have yet to play Fire Emblem Awakening. I'd be fine with another Fire Emblem character as an Echo Fighter, though.

Ashley
Chance: 45%
She is very popular in Japan and has seen considerable cross-promotion in Rhythm Heaven Megamix and the Nintendo Badge Arcade. However, it is uncertain whether she'd be one of the few newcomers brought into Smash Ultimate due to her unknown popularity with the Smash fanbase as a whole.

Want: 55%
I have never played any of the WarioWare games, but I am interested to see what else they can do with the spellcaster archetype. Red could also be used to assist in some interesting ways as well.

Impa
Chance: 40%
She has a much better chance now than she did when the new Smash game was just announced because of the new Echo Fighter concept. She would be an easy choice as an Echo of Sheik, although it may not be able to portray her as well as possible.

Want: 70%
Another ninja-like fighter would be very interesting to have in the Smash roster and it would be nice to have another Zelda mainstay finally make it into the roster. I'd prefer to not have her be an Echo of Sheik, but it is her most likely role at this point.

Nominations:
Concept: All-Star Versus x4
Concept: Everywhere (except maybe Miiverse) is Back (every stage returns) x1

 

[Nimbostratus]

Wish I had the time and resources for a longer post, but here I am stuck with a phone in a hotel room with family I haven’t seen in months. Will have to do the bare minimum.

King K Rool
Chance- 66%
Easily the most popular character left, both East and West, and this game is set to please fans. Nothing really in his way except for limited space and Dixie. Dixie could be a problem, but they could honestly both get in- Dixie as an Echo (sigh, she deserves better) and K. Rool as a fan favorite.
Want- 100%
Great personality and high historic prominence. Would fit like a glove.

Impa
Chance- 35%
Could work as a Echo. Skyward Sword’s dimensions are a bit off, while her Hyrule Warriors appearance doesn’t fit as well with the move set. If they wanted this, though, they would figure it out without much trouble. Not keeping homogenous designs are great for her. I could see another Zelda character not being priortized, though, giving the amount of work being done on its other characters.
Want- 100%
Would be a great character to add, especially at little effort. Reoccurring in the series keeps her relevant. Would particularly like to see her SS appearance, which is her best role and currently not repped by a character.

Ashley
Chance- 49%
Popular, especially in Japan. AT missing in action, but it’s a little premature to make assumptions based on just how many others are missing, too. Some suspicious elements, as I mentioned yesterday. Even so, she’s been promoted pretty remarkably for a side character. Others in series have been around longer, but are not really threats due to a lack of popularity and promotion. If WarioWare gets a newcomer, it’s Ashley. Even so, it’s possible they port over all of the ATs and call it good.
Want- 100%
I want a WarioWare character to further differentiate the series. I like Ashley’s design and personality, and I think they could do a lot of interesting things with her move set utilizing spells/hexes, Red, maybe the broom. Could be a blast. Count me in.

Chrom
Chance- 35%
Would work as an Echo, has been teased before, fairly popular, and a unique FE character seems less likely at this point. Haven’t seen Robin’s FS yet, which seems suspicious, but it could be nothing. Might not be prioritized.
Want- 95%
Don’t have a problem with an additional FE character at all now given the amount of Mario and Pokemon in the game. I really like Chrom and would be completely cool with this since he is guaranteed to not take much time. Taking a few points off as it seems odd for Lucina and Chrom to have different movesets (so much for learning from her father). Maybe even different sizes of the same Falchion? Chrom deserves better, but it’s this or nothing at this point, so I won’t complain.


Edit: Shoot, forgot the Captain. So many characters... hard to give them the attention they deserve.

Captain Toad
Chance- 28%
I’m kind of in line with the opinion that they wouldn’t put so much effort into revamping Toad if they planned on making the Captain playable. I know there are other opinions on the matter, and I hope they’re right. He still has enough other merits to keep his hopes somewhat afloat.
Want- 100%
I already wanted him, and the moveset video completely convinced me he has potential to be awesome to play with, too. Very deserving. Disappointed to see some of the opposition to him and Toads in general, but it is what it is.

I’d be pretty happy with all of these characters

 

[Smasher 101]

Quick note, I'll be giving a sizable amount of 50%s in chance, at least for now. There's a lot of newcomers I now feel have a realistic chance with how I think the roster might go, but not every single one is getting in obviously and there's only a select few that I feel are more likely than now. So a coin flip to some of these feels right at the moment. As we get closer to release and get to learn even more I'll likely be able to drop some of them down.

King K. Rool

Chance: 50%
(My previous score: N/A, would have given him 30%)

Thus far, there seems to be a lot of fanservice in the roster, and I'm expecting some (probably not quite all, but definitely some) of the remaining newcomers to be in a similar case. King K. Rool getting in based on that would make a lot of sense, because he's one of the most talked about newcomers out there and I have no doubt that he had a strong ballot performance. The Mii costume in 4 also says something. I do think his lack of recent appearances hurts him, as there are other popular characters that have maybe a little less support, but a lot more relevance. Sakurai could easily go for characters like those instead. There's also other potential Donkey Kong characters, but I could easily see the series get both a unique fighter and an echo character, so I don't think that hurts him as much as it does for other franchises. I ultimately don't feel he's anywhere near a lock, but he's far too major of a name to be dismissed.

Want: 100%

My favorite Nintendo villain and one of my favorite Nintendo characters in general. Donkey Kong is one of my favorite Nintendo franchises and I think it should have a little more love in Smash. And he seems like someone I'd love playing as. He was an easy choice for my ballot vote when that was going on, and remains my most wanted Nintendo newcomer. I got one of the cool villains I really wanted, let's see if I can get the other...

Captain Toad

Chance: 30%
(Previous score: 40%)

Sorry to say I do think Toad showing up in Peach's moveset once more slightly hurts him. The added involvement honestly feels like it could be compensation. I don't think Blue Toad means anything either. There's also still two other notable Mario competitors (rip Waluigi), and unlike the above series none of them really make sense as an echo fighter; the only one that did already is one. Captain Toad definitely isn't out of it though. He's still different than normal Toad and this wouldn't be the first time there's an NPC that's similar to a playable character. He's highly important to his series and Toads have always been a fairly common Smash request. And Captain Toad has been steadily becoming a notable character himself, even getting his own spinoff that did decently well (given the system it was on) and ended up getting a port. So I still think there's a chance he caught Sakurai's eye, there's just obstacles in his way that keep me from finding him extremely likely.

Want: 80%

The only Mario candidate I have any interest in seeing playable personally, and the more I've thought about him the more I like the idea. He's a cool character and I like his game, and I could easily see him getting a fun moveset. He's more than earned it, too. There's still some characters I'd like more but I'd certainly enjoy his inclusion.

Ashley

Chance: 50%
(Previous score: 35%)

Assist trophy has yet to show up, so she's safe for now. She's a popular character overall, particularly in Japan. She's also certainly unique and has had relevancy and promotion thanks to stuff like Badge Arcade. And she's really the only Wario character with any shot so no competition there. I could definitely see her making it.

Want: 75%

I like WarioWare and I like her. She's not the highest priority for me, but she could certainly be a fun character, so I wouldn't mind her inclusion.

Impa

Chance: 50%
(Previous score: 10%)

Meant to include her as an honorable mention for underrated but forgot, oops!

I admittedly wasn't sure we'd even get new clones this time. Now that we have at least one (and I doubt Daisy's the only new one), I find her much more likely than before, given that she's a perfectly reasonable choice for a Sheik echo. She's one of the more popular and recurring picks for a Zelda character, which also helps. Depends on how many more echo characters we get, really, but I could definitely see it. I still don't think she's likely as a unique character though.

Want: 55%

I don't care that much about her. She'd make sense either unique or echo though, and I'd be happy for her fans.

Chrom

Chance: 50%
(Previous score: 0.5%)

Was pretty much completely shot down last game, and in this case I don't expect him to be considered as a unique character again. I'm starting to think he has a legitimate shot as an echo though? At least he's been considered before, and he's still fairly relevant and popular as far as Fire Emblem goes. We haven't seen Robin's Final Smash yet, either, which may or may not mean something. Like Impa, it may depend on how many echo fighters there even are, but I don't think he should be counted out at all.

Want: 50%

I don't mind more Fire Emblem. I actually actively wanted him last game and was fairly disappointed when he got knocked out of the running. I've since got over it since Awakening is already represented well, but I still like him and would play as him, and he really did get a rough elimination last time so it'd be neat to see him get revenge. That said even if two of them are echoes it'd still be a little weird having three of the Fire Emblem fighters be from the same game lol

If we're nominating today, then there's someone we haven't rated yet who suddenly seems like a decent possibility, so:

Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[Erureido]

Five characters to rate today, huh?

King K. Rool

Chance: 30% --> 60%

If Ridley and Daisy are any indication, it's that Sakurai is listening more closely to what the fans want this time around. Seeing how King K. Rool has been really popular for quite some time and even got a Mii Costume in Smash 4 because of it, I think his chances are looking better right now. Still, I don't want to say he is guaranteed, seeing how relevancy still remains an issue for him.

Want: 30% --> 30%

Copy and pasting what I wrote on K. Rool's previous day.

I don't really have any major attachment to the character, hence why this want score is on the lower side, but I can see the appeal behind him, and I'll be quite happy for his fans the day he is revealed to be in Smash due to his popularity.

------

Captain Toad

Chance: 40% --> 30%

While he still remains to be a prominent figure in recent Mario games, I've become more skeptical of Toad's chances following the Direct. Now that we know Daisy is an Echo Fighter of Peach combined with how Toad has become more active in their movesets, something tells me Sakurai will just leave it at that and dismiss Captain Toad.

Want: 50% --> 50%

Copy and pasting what I wrote on Captain Toad's previous day.

Wouldn't mind him at all. I'm basically indifferent to his inclusion, though if he does make it into the game, I hope Sakurai will find a way to make Captain Toad useful while keeping the "no-jump" thing in mind (the idea about Toad having very low jumps but an excellent up special for recovery sounds like an interesting idea).

------

Impa

Chance: 30% --> 45%

Her main issue back in the past was how that she had a variety of appearances despite being a reoccurring character in the series: sometimes she was a young, capable warrior, while other games depicted her as an old lady. Now, with Zelda using her Link Between Worlds design, Ganondorf re-using his OoT design, and Young Link returning, Sakurai seems to be aiming for a more diverse game representation amongst Zelda's reps. It's possible could choose a specific design for Impa to make her represent a certain Zelda game (i.e. going with her Skyward Sword design to represent her game).

Moreover, the inclusion of Echo Fighters has opened the possibility for her to be an Echo Fighter of Sheik, seeing how the two are Sheikas and can thus fight similarly to each other. Still, I don't think she is guaranteed. We don't even know how many Echo Fighters we're getting.

Want: 60% --> 65%

Copy and pasting what I wrote on Impa's previous day.

Admittedly, my interest in her as a Smash fighter declined in the past year in favor of other Zelda characters, but I still think she'd be a cool addition, especially with the incorporate elements from her Hyrule Warriors moveset.

My interest in her slightly increased. I wouldn't mind seeing her as an Echo Fighter either.

------

Ashley

Chance: 35% --> 50%

The lack of any mention about her returning as an Assist Trophy is one, but the added bonus to this that boosts her chances quite a bit is similar to what I said with K. Rool's new rating: Sakurai seems to be listening to the fans' demands more. Ashley's popularity is very apparent: she got a Mii Costume in Smash 4, and she had lots of attention in Nintendo's Badge Arcade app in the 3DS. Her chances are definitely better now, but I still don't think she is a lock.

Want: 75% --> 75%

Copy and pasting what I wrote on Ashley's previous day.

She's one of my favorite Warioware characters, and the concept of a witch using both her staff and her little devil friend that can shape shift makes for some great moveset potential. I also really like her theme!

------

And the best for last!

Chrom

Chance: 5% --> 30%

Wow, the tables have turned quite immensely in Chrom's favor since we last rated him. There has been no mention of Robin's Final Smash in Smash Ultimate thus far, and with the implementation of Echo Fighters, it's possible Chrom could be promoted from Final Smash material to his own fighter. Sakurai has made comments about how he would play a lot like Ike, whose Chrom costume has not showed up in Smash Ultimate yet, so it's possible Chrom could become an Echo of Ike like how his daughter is an Echo of Marth. Combing these two facts with Chrom's popularity in both the Fire Emblem fanbase, his popularity in the Smash community leading up to Robin's reveal, his Mii Costume in Smash 4, his crossover appearance in Project X Zone 2, and his fame as one of the faces of modern Fire Emblem, Chrom's chances are definitely a lot better now then they were when we rated him. Perhaps his words "I guess I'll have my chance another day" was prophesizing his comeback in Smash Ultimate!

Still, I don't want to see he is very likely. Like I mentioned with Impa, we don't know how many Echo Fighters Sakurai will implement in Smash Ultimate. There were also other veteran characters whose Final Smashes weren't shown yet, so there's that issue too.

Want: 100% --> 100%

Copy and pasting what I wrote on Chrom's previous day:

Chrom is my favorite lord of the series and a pretty cool character to. Opossum pretty much summed up what I would have to say regarding the reasons why I too like him.

I remember being a Chrom supporter during the Smash 4 speculation days, so you can imagine how hurt I was when I saw how brutally confirmed he was that day when Robin's trailer came out. It's because of that I've been wishing to see him in Smash just to make up for that brutal treatment. I know his chances are quite slim, but that doesn't stop me from abandoning support. Heck, I remember playing a Project M mod recently that featured Chrom where his moveset involved him switching between his sword and a spear for two different movesets, and if he does make the cut, I'd be interested in a similar mechanic would be implemented in his actual moveset if he actually made it to Smash.

Looking at Chrom's situation now, it's funny. Back then, I didn't completely agree with the prospect of Chrom being a potential Ike clone; that one cutscene of Chrom and Lucina fighting together showed the two characters have a similar fighting style, so going off of that, Chrom would be more fitting as a Marth Echo. Now, the welcoming of Echo Fighters has given me some newfound optimism to the point I'd welcome Chrom as a full-fledged fighter even as an Ike Echo (though I still think Chrom could be capable of a unique moveset, but that's a discussion for another day). If he were an Ike Echo, I imagine him being a speedier but less stronger version of him with a different Final Smash (maybe call in Frederick for Chrom's version of Pair Up?), and that could make Chrom a viable fighter in the competitive scene that way!

------

Nominations:

Well, looks like all those days of nominating Corrin went to waste. I was looking forward to seeing what would people say about his chances before we heard the news of his return. Oh well, glad to see my secondary in Smash 4 is coming back!

So with that, it's time to nominate for something else:

Only 4-6 newcomers in Smash Ultimate's base roster: x5

This is a concept that I think is worth talking about, and I've got some things to say about it.

^ I should also clarify this concept does not include the Echo Fighters. It's 4-6 completely unique newcomers, Ridley and Inkling among them.

 

[Deleted member]

For all those characters this is how I feel (no offense to the fans, I just don't see it).

 

[andimidna]

Instead of watching 60 of those little videos rn does anyone know how common it was to show the final smash in those character trailers? I could’ve sworn they were shown off in all 10 or so that I watched. If Robin’s was like the only one lacking it that’d be pretty weird

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Woah, we're re-rating a LOT of characters huh? alright then. I'll try to keep my thoughts on everyone brief

King Kaptain Baron von Krusha K. Roolenstein
Chance: 75%
Given that this is being hyped up as the ULTIMATE smash game, and Sakurai is trying to please the fans, with Ridley already in the game, K. Rool seems like he's the next in line. his chances are better than a lot of other non-echo characters are.
Want: 30%
As much as I love the DKC trilogy, and like K. Rool, I wouldn't be THAT devastated if he didn't make it in. and wouldn't be THAT hyped if he did. but it would still be nice to see him.


Impa
Chance: 60%
I don't feel the claim of "don't expect too many new characters" hurts her chances too much for getting in. it does however hurt her chances of being a unique character. they could easily make her an Echo of Sheik though. and I'd say we will no doubt get a few more echos in the roster. she seems like a pretty good bet/ obvious choice for that.
Want: 40%
I'd want her more as her own unique character, especially one based on her Hyrule Warriors self. but it'd still be nice to see her get in and for a new Zelda character to be added that isn't Link, Zelda or Gannondorf.


Ashley
Chance: 50%
I keep hearing that she's super popular in japan. that would help her a lot. but she's from a pretty niche franchise and Sakurai might want to focus on even more demanded characters or more hype inducing or he might not see enough potential in her to make her a full character. He may decide to make her an assist trophy again. I could see him go either way on this so I'll go with 50/50
Want: 25%
I think Ashley is kinda neat. but I don't have that much desire to play as her. but she could be fun.


Chrom
Chance: 65%
He might still be a part of Robin's final smash. but he would also be a super easy echo to implement, borrowing a moveset from another FE character. so I'd say he has a better shot than I had thought in the past, now that the roster is going to be lower on newcomers and echos are easy to implement.
Want: 2%
I have no attachment to the FE series or to Chrom as a character. and feel we already have more than enough FE characters on the roster.


Captain Toad
Chance: 60%
Peach and Daisy both use Toads in their move sets, these toads are also more present and active than Peach's was in past smash games. but Captain Toad is a distinct character from them and is carving out a name for himself. I could see him getting in. and say he has slightly better than a 50/50 chance. Sakurai may decide "toad is already in the game" and not include him he may think Captain Toad isn't relevant/popular/feasible enough to include. or he may see him as viable and see the fan demand and include him. I think he's more likely to be in than not. but it's still a bit of a toss-up
Want: 85%
Out of all the re-rates today, this is the character I want to see get in the most. He's in my top 5 wants. and I feel he is deserving of a spot given the name he's making for himself with his repeat appearances in the series and his own game


Nominations
hmm, I guess now is as good a time as any for this dumb idea I've been hiding up my sleeve
VIRTUAL BOY x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Instead of watching 60 of those little videos rn does anyone know how common it was to show the final smash in those character trailers? I could’ve sworn they were shown off in all 10 or so that I watched. If Robin’s was like the only one lacking it that’d be pretty weird

I haven't watched them all, but I know Peach and Lucario don't show their final smashes in their trailers either.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Instead of watching 60 of those little videos rn does anyone know how common it was to show the final smash in those character trailers? I could’ve sworn they were shown off in all 10 or so that I watched. If Robin’s was like the only one lacking it that’d be pretty weird

Alright, I'm going to watch every single video and see if they have Final Smashes or not. Wish me luck.

Super Smash Bros.

• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• NO
• YES

Super Smash Bros. Melee

• NO
• DAISY: NO
• YES
• YES
• NOT IN VIDEO, DOES HAVE NEW FINAL SMASH
• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES

Super Smash Bros. Brawl

• NO
• YES
• NOT IN VIDEO, KEEPS OLD FINAL SMASH
• NOT IN VIDEO, DOES HAVE NEW FINAL SMASH
• NOT IN VIDEO, DOES HAVE NEW FINAL SMASH
• YES
• YES
• NOT IN VIDEO, HAS FINAL SMASH FROM BRAWL
• NO
• YES
• YES
• NOT IN VIDEO, DOES HAVE NEW FINAL SMASH
• YES
• NO
• NO
• YES
• YES

Super Smash Bros. For Wii U and 3DS

• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• NOT IN VIDEO, DOES HAVE NEW FINAL SMASH
• NO
• NO
• NO
• NO
• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• YES
• NO
• YES
• YES
• YES
• YES

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

• INKLING: YES
• RIDLEY: YES

Final Total

• YES, THE FINAL SMASH WAS IN THE VIDEO: 42/66 (63.636%)
• NO, THE FINAL SMASH WAS NOT IN THE VIDEO AND WE DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS: 17/66 (25.758%)
• NO, THE FINAL SMASH WAS NOT IN THE VIDEO AND WE KNOW WHAT IT IS: 7/66 (10.606%)
• NO, THE FINAL SMASH WAS NOT IN THE VIDEO: 24/66 (36.364%)

 

[Starbound]

Further, going off that list NeonBurrito , if we're looking at "straight to the point" final smashes as has been pointed out, a few characters are also going to need reworked final smashes.

These guys have transformation or moveset changing smashes that are gone now:

And if we're looking at "straight to the point" final smashes, then needs hers changed as well due to the after-animation effect slowing down combat (which is good because it's awful!).

So that leaves:

It sounds like Sheik got Greninja's old final smash, which makes sense because Battle Bond is so obvious for a final smash with a Super Water Shuriken. Sounds like no Final Smashes are being shared/cloned this time.

 

[HylianHeroBigBoss]

Capitan Toad
Chance: 30%
With toads still being part of the princess' moveset some have lost hope, but having the same character in smash more than once has never been an issue. Hes still a recurring part of the series, and with a new release very soon i think he is possible.
Want: 25%
Not a particular want of mine, but hey i wouldnt complain

Impa
Chance: 60%
Now with echo fighters possibly being far more prevalent its not that out of the realm of possibility. And even then, i think she could hold her own as a stand alone character.
Want: 80%
Ive actually wanted to see her appear for quite some time, shes been a presence in the zelda series forever.
------
Chrom
Chance: 20%
I think sakurai has made it painfully clear that hes made chrom the whipping boy unfortunately (like waluigi). Echo fighter if we are lucky
Want: 30%
I actually like chrom quite a bit, and i was ready for him to join in the last game, but i wont be too disappointed if it doesnt happen either.

------
Ashley
Chance: 35%
She actually seems to have a decent fanbase, popularity in japan helps and shed definitely be an interesting character in sakurai's eyes no doubt
Want: 50%
Id love to see her join, shed definitely be a stark difference compared to the female characters we already have in the game.
---------

K. Rool
Chance: 20%
As confident as his fanbase has been since before brawl, i still dont think anything is guaranteed. But i cant deny the outcry and demand hes had, if sakurai doesnt notice at this point, i dont know if he ever will. I can see him being passed over once again though for an easier choice of dixie
Want: 20%
Never been a fan honestly, i do understand hes highly requested though, on some message boards anyway.

 

[Deleted member]

Missed out on yesterday because I knew Decidueye was going to receive a lot of criticism.
...and also because I no longer see the point in rating chances. I swear, Smash speculators are so focused on that, they forget to have fun and never talk about what they actually want, and people who suggest unlikely characters are often ignored because of that.
For those reasons, I will no longer give chance scores for any characters and/or concepts from now on. I will only be talking about what I want.
With that in mind, let's get down to buisness.

Captain Toad: 10%
Used to support him, but I find him rather boring now. Would be okay with his inclusion, but Waluigi remains the only Mario newcomer I'm interested in (he's not happening though)
Impa: 0%
Not interested in adding characters for the sake of increasing a series rep count. Impa does nothing that interests me.
Chrom: 30%
I like Chrom as a character alright, but I have little interest in seeing him become playable. Would be happy for his fans, though.
Ashley: 50%
Not very familiar with the character, but magic users are cool, so I have no objections. That and she's cute.
King K. Rool: 80%
Pretty high on my want list, competing with Crash (and previously Ridley) for my fifth slot. However, until Decidueye gets in I won't consider any other character to be a priority. The only one that comes close is Bandana Dee.


Nominating Susie x5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I swear, Smash speculators are so focused on that, they forget to have fun and never tal about what they actually want, and people who suggest unlikely characters are often ignored because of that.

This...has some painful truths in it.

Bias is a thing in life, but it's really common to see people give high chance and high want ratings simultaneously, and vice versa. Not that I haven't been guilty of it as well. Also, as soon as any character is alluded to in a leak, their popularity inexplicably rises, as if all of these closet fans have appeared out of nowhere. Yes, liking characters can change over time, but sometimes it seems that "being right" is part of peoples' enjoyment of a given character, and not necessarily what the character offers.

After the massive infodump this week, we should all remember to keep speculation light. We've reached a point where most characters will be in direct competition so we should be critical without being offensive, and we should also remember to rate chance and want independently of each other. It's okay not to like a character, but to dismiss a character fully who 'doesn't have a chance' as "well, nobody likes them" is fallacious. It's also okay to like and support characters who have infinitessimal chances of getting in Smash without being called out.

 

[Scamper52596]

King K. Rool

Chance: 65%
With such a focus on fan service this time around, and with how he was already acknowledged as being a popular character when they added him as a Mii Fighter costume in Smash 4, I could legitimately see this guy happening now. And they would probably throw in Dixie Kong as an Echo Fighter too. The community has really been clamoring for new Donkey Kong characters, so I'm sure Sakurai has heard.

Want: 60%
I don't care for him too much, but I do think the Donkey Kong franchise could use some new representation. Plus it would be nice to see the community get excited over his inclusion like they did Ridley's.


Impa

Chance: 12%
With certain Zelda Assist Trophies being shown off over the course of E3, there is less competition for a new Zelda character now. I still don't think Impa is that likely of a choice though. Her proportions don't really line up enough to be an Echo Fighter of Sheik, and I doubt she was the top contender on the Ballot out of all the Zelda characters that people could've asked for.

Want: 0%
Simply put, there are other Zelda characters I'd rather see if any. Impa as a Smash fighter has always been a boring concept to me since we already have Sheik.


Ashley

Chance: 22%
The fact that she's a popular choice and we haven't seen her as an Assist yet leads me to believe that she could very well have been considered to be a playable fighter. She even has her own theme song, and her popularity has only grown since Brawl.

Want: 50%
I don't really care either way. I can't really see what the big deal is with this character, and it was sort of a surprise to me to learn about how popular she actually is currently.


Chrom

Chance: 20%
His tagline "Maybe I'll get my chance another day" could have some new meaning here. It wouldn't surprise me if he was considered for an Echo Fighter. Then again, Robin's Final Smash seems like it's one of those that probably doesn't need to be updated to fit in with the way they're handling Final Smashes in Smash Ultimate.

Want: 30%
It wouldn't bother me if he was an Echo Fighter, but I'm one of those people who feels that they kind of overdid it with the Fire Emblem characters last game. Even so I still feel like they might add a Fire Emblem character from the new one coming to Switch anyway.


Captain Toad

Chance: 36%
If we get a new Mario character I could potentially see it being him. I could also see it being either Geno since Sakurai has officially acknowledged his popularity, or maybe Paper Mario because Nintendo still seems to be doing stuff with that part of the franchise. No matter how you slice it there doesn't seem to be that much competition.

Want: 50%
Another situation where I don't really have an opinion one way or the other. Captain Toad doesn't seem that interesting of a character to put in Smash to me, but Toad being such an iconic character helps me to respect the idea of Captain Toad becoming playable.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

None of my want percentages for these characters have changed. You can find them by searching this thread for posts by me.

 

[KingofPhantoms]

K. Rool Chance: 80%

A raise from my previous rating of him.

Yes, I'm well aware Ridley being confirmed doesn't directly mean K. Rool's getting in. Ridley being in alone does not affect K. Rool's chances. However, I do do think the circumstances of Ridley's ultimate inclusion helps him out.

This new Smash game stand outs as Sakurai is clearly going above and beyond to please the fanbase. Every veteran came back. All of them, every last one. Even all third parties. Accomplishing that must have been hell to do. And then we have Ridley. A character who Sakurai was formerly (by the time Smash 4's main development was over and the game released) convinced was impossible to make playable without ruining him or being unable to do him justice, mainly because of his size and proportions, a common argument (and meme) by many others who believed Ridley simply couldn't be made playable themselves. Now, Sakurai clearly considered him again, and quite obviously made an effort to make him work as a playable character this time. He succeeded. Ridley, one of the most requested first-party characters, who had received large fan demand over many years, and was previously believed by Sakurai himself to have been an impossible addition, got into the game because Sakurai had a change of mind and went the extra mile to make sure the fans would get what they wanted and that Ridley did actually work in his eyes. He wanted to do the character justice. Well, he's here, and he's playable, so I can't imagine that we would be seeing him as apart of the roster right now if Sakurai didn't believe he did the character justice.

K. Rool seems to be one of the more popular picks from the fanbase as well, and surely he's been on Sakurai's radar before. He's gotten a Mii costume in the previous entry,, and a trophy in nearly every entry, so there's also that. He clearly hasn't been totally overlooked. And yes, his lack of relevance (hasn't had a major appearance in over a decade) is a significant problem, but if Sakurai can do a total 180 on his opinion and bring a character like Ridley to the roster, I'm fairly certain he wouldn't care much about K. Rool's absence in the past several years. I would argue that Sakurai's personal beliefs on Ridley's size and proportions were a much bigger (pun not intended) issue for Ridley than relevance ever has been for K. Rool.

Of course, I'm not going entirely against things I've mentioned I believed in before, and actually still do. Just because Sakurai can and has completely changed his stance on a character before (Prior to Ridley's inclusion, he once believed Villager wouldn't be able to have a good moveset; yet he showed up playable in Smash 4 anyway) doesn't mean he will again for some other specific character. Even still, I think I've made it clear enough that Ridley's inclusion isn't the only reason I'm giving him such a good score here. And, if anything, I don't think Ridley's inclusion hurts K. Rool's odds at all. They either help his odds, or don't affect them at all. And I personally lean towards the former option. The same can be said about the veterans all returning. K. Rool's still in an odd spot, I'll admit, but I really do think his chances are better than ever right now. It may be now or never for the Kremling King.

Want: 100%

He's been my most wanted newcomer for quite some time now. I'd be overjoyed to see the guy join the roster.

Impa Chance: 70%

Seems like prime Echo Fighter material to me, if not a newcomer on her own.

Want: 80%

One of the Zelda newcomers I'd be more interested in seeing. Even as an Echo Fighter I suppose I really couldn't complain. Most of my issues with Dark Pit and Lucina are biased, admittedly. To each their own.

Abstaining from the rest.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Since it seems like we're rating Chrom anyways I'll just put my ratings here:

Chrom:

Chance: 30% - Definitely possible as an echo character of Ike, but I'm not overly confident it'll happen either, I'm not sure being a complete mirror image of Ike would fit him that well.

Want: 50% - While I never really cared for Chrom himself, and neither do I feel like Fire Emblem needs anymore characters (or clones for that matter), I'd be happy for his fanbase, which took an almighty slap to the face last time around (although I'm unsure whether they'd be happy with him being a clone).

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

King K. Rool:
70%. With Ridley confirmed, King K. Rool seems to be the next in line when it comes to the next 'big' addition to Super Smash Bros. Ridley was definitely added in because of fan-demand, so I think it's likely that K. Rool will probably be revealed. He's one of the few characters from the ballot to actually be acknowledged in the form of the Mii Costume, and knowing the Inklings got promoted to playable, he has a pretty high likelihood. Though a counter-point would be Takamaru, who probably stayed that way because Murasame Castle is still too small in the west nor holding any current plans for a new title (Profound sadness)
Old Want: 21%
Revised Want: 65% Much more than previously. Although the extreme reaction to Bayonetta and Corrin soured my feelings to K. Rool, I just want him in for his fans to be happy to see their favourite character in Smash Bros. Space Pirates and Kutthroats are two sides of the villainous coin for Smash Bros, so I think K. Rool's kinda redeemed in my eyes.

Abstaining from Impa and Captain Toad.

Chrom:
Chance: 10%
Want: 65%
It's kinda interesting that Chrom's costume has been removed. By the way

Ashley:
Chance: 50%
Want: 75%
Given her extreme popularity in Japan, I think it's likely she'll get promoted to playable from Assist Trophy this time around. She's so popular in her home series that Nintendo aren't afraid to promote her in games she doesn't even appear in, ala Wolverine.

Either way, I think she'd be a fun new addition to the cast if she were to be playable. I have no objections to any more Wario/Wario Ware content in Smash Bros.


Nominating: Octolings/Agent 8

 

[Delzethin]

Five at once. Well, better keep it brisk, or else I'll pass out from exhaustion before I finish this.

King K. Rool

Let me preface this by saying I'm concerned that too may speculators are jumping to conclusions. Bringing every veteran back was unprecedented, and there're a lot of bones thrown to the fans even from our incomplete knowledge so far, but we do not know to what extent this applies to newcomers. I've seen others assume Ridley's inclusion means they're going to stick in the most vocally requested characters above all else, but Ridley hasn't actually broken any guidelines we saw used in past entries--he's relevant, a big enough deal to be recognized in his series, and had enough unique abilities and moveset potential to create something interesting with. His fan demand was acknowledged, sure, but it did not magically solve any potential hurdles there were; those were solved on their own. Ultimately, it seems like it came down to Sakurai and his team finally figuring out a character concept that worked.

So, forgive me for going against the mob here, but I'm still skeptical about K. Rool's chances. In fact, I think they may have taken a slight hit due to the way they're handling the Smash Ballot results being more ambiguous now. The fact that apparently the Ballot helped out Ridley (Can someone confirm that?) is interesting, because if true, then now we've seen it used twice for characters who would've fit the devs' guidelines for consideration even without it. And now we have Bomberman and Krystal, both of whom had significant Ballot support at a glance, wind up as Assist Trophies, which has me wondering if their appearance was Ballot-influenced as well.

Which raises the question: Could K. Rool's lack of relevance still ruin his chances to be playable despite his Ballot support? While we have nothing concrete yet, now the question is more worth asking than it was previously. It's enough that we cannot assume his popularity--nor anyone else's--will dismiss any problems.

Chance for K. Rool: 30%

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Captain Toad

So, this is interesting. While we've seen nothing of the captain himself, it's the surrounding context that has people second-guessing him. Does regular Toad's more active role in Peach's moveset send this craven explorer packing?

On a surface level...not inherently. After all, the Toads are a whole species while Captain Toad is one particular individual of that species--one's existence does not preclude the other. Having Captain Toad be present on the same stage as the Toads that Peach and Daisy summon isn't a deal breaker on its own; it's more complicated than that.

However, since moveset changes are probably ironed out after newcomers are chosen--or at least at the same time--then what happens with the former may tell us a little about the latter. Would Sakurai have thought it as important to give regular Toad a bigger role if Captain Toad was set to be playable? Because of that, at this point I think his chances are lower than we initially thought.

Chance for Captain Toad: 30%

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Ashley

How about that, she's actually built up a lot of friends over the last few years. Ashley's become a Japanese darling of sorts, and with at least a decent amount of Western support as well. Being a magic user would also help her stand out on a roster with few of them, and while I haven't played many Warioware games, I've seen some interesting moveset ideas make the rounds in recent months. And the fact that her Assist Trophy is MIA for now means she remains a potential newcomer for the time being.

That said...timing could be a real problem here. Warioware Gold is coming in a month and a half to make Ashley relevant again, but with it being such a recent release, development may not have started on it until well after Ultimate's base roster was chosen. Considering the previous title in the series was Game & Wario way back in 2013, it throws a wrench in things for a character from a series that, in the grand scheme of things, isn't a very heavy hitter. And while she's shown up in a bunch of smaller side roles, notably in a bunch of Badge Arcade promos, we don't know if that kind of thing has any effect on who Sakurai and crew consider.

In all, we have a character with interesting potential...but way more questions than answers for the time being. She'll need several things to line up in order to join the fight.

Chance for Ashley: 27.5%

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Chromε

What kind of strange full circle is this? From assumed frontrunner during Smash 4 speculation to assumed lock to laughingstock to afterthought a few months ago to now being a legitimate option as a clone. Chrom has one of the strongest cases at the moment among potential echo fighters: we've yet to see Robin's Final Smash in action yet, and Ike's alternate palette based on Chrom is mysteriously missing for no apparent reason. On their own they're just curiosities, but when combined, it raises some legitimate questions.

I'm hesitant to pencil in any potential echo as a lock just yet, though, since we have a very small sample size to work with. Daisy tells us little about what the Smash team is looking for in regards to echo fighters, other than that they're willing to look pretty deep. I do think he's one of the most likely ones based on what we currently know, and the "too many Fire Emblem characters" talk falls flat when it comes to a clone character who wouldn't require much commitment to make, but I'm hesitant to rate any potential echo fighters too highly until we know more.

Chance for Chrom: 40%

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Impaε

Everything mentioned just above also applies here. Turns out Impa's saving grace could be her similarities to Sheik's kit and playstyle rather than how she could stand out. The mix and match of revamps the Zelda characters got this time around means Impa is less restricted appearance-wise than last time, meaning she could viably work in something like her appearance in Skyward Sword or even Ocarina of Time. Or perhaps she could take a page from Sheik and get an original design based on Breath of the Wild, maybe a depiction of what that game's Impa looked like before the Calamity?

However, with us having so little knowledge of what the devs are looking for, and nothing implying she may have been chosen like there is for Chrom, Impa is stuck in limbo for now. She may have a decent shot, though, especially if it's seen as a way of giving Zelda fans some kind of newcomer even if only a clone.

Chance for Impa: 35%

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My interest in these five varies. K. Rool would still be entertaining, Captain Toad still has a lot to work with (as that moveset video that made the rounds showed, though I disagree on a couple aspects of it), Impa could be appealing as a variant of Sheik with a somewhat different playstyle, and it'd be nice to see Chrom finally get his day in a way that wouldn't take much time to implement. Like I said, though, I haven't played many Warioware games, so I can't say much for Ashley.

Want for K. Rool: 60%
Want for Captain Toad: 55%
Want for Ashley: Abstain
Want for Chrom: 50%
Want for Impa: 50%

As for what to nominate...how about something that a few people are starting to think might be a thing?

Nominations - Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x5

Also, TCT~Phantom , another idea: I think it'd be best if we placed rated echo fighters in their own separate list from the regular newcomers. Since they have different criteria for inclusion, they're going to have different rating scales going forward, and leaving both types in the same list will just lead to a cluttered mess in the long run. Maybe they could even get their own graphic showing the 5 highest rated ones?