Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TheFritzle]

Most Overrated #1: Decidueye (57.87%)
The most overrated character in my opinion is Decidueye. He isn't unlikely, but I feel that since he was rated relatively early on, a lot of people hadn't considered a lot of the other Pokemon. I also overrated Decidueye, as I thought he was the only reasonable new Pokemon pick. Nothing has happened since he was rated that would really impact his chances, but I think people were over estimating him. I'd give it a 35%.

Most Overrated #2: Rex and Pyra (64.69%)
Rex and Pyra are definitely not the most likely newcomer. I think people overrated their chances because of how recent of a character they were. Of course a new character with a unique gimmick would be a hot topic for a newcomer. I'm not confident in their chances in the base roster, as I don't know if timing is on their side, especially with Elma having the spotlight. I'd give them a 45%, and <65% for DLC.

Most Overrated #3: Captain Toad (48.60%)
Mario newcomers seem to be very likely, and Toad is very iconic. I think Captain Toad is decently overrated. There are other Mario newcomers that are also likely, so there is a lot of competition, and I don't think Captain Toad is the front runner. Peach already uses Toad, and the fact that Toad also appears in a lot of Peach's other moves like her grabs makes me think this is compensation. I'd give him 35%.

Honorably Overrated: Arms Newcomer (70.45%)
Since this is not a specific newcomer, I didn't add it, but I really don't think a 70% is correct for an ARMS newcomer, atleast in the base game. I brought up timing with Rex and Pyra, but an ARMS newcomer has an even bigger hurdle than them. ARMS was a new IP, so Nintendo didn't know if it would be successful. I can't see them being so confident in ARMS that they put a character in Smash as playable, I could see an assist trophy though. I'd give em a solid 50%, and a 75% for DLC.

Most Underrated #1: Isaac (17.73%)
I can definitely see why Isaac is so underrated, as he got demoted from an assist trophy. But, 17% is way too low. Isaac is an insanely popular pick and I'd be shocked to see Isaac not be brought back as an assist. I'm sure he did well on the ballot, and with Ridley finally being added because of fan support, I think a lot of characters that didn't make it in the past are going to be considered again. I'd give him a 30%

Most Underrated #2: Arle Nadja (15.47%)
Puyo Puyo is a very popular series, and is probably the next in line for a SEGA rep. We have a lot of frachises and game types in Smash already, but we have yet to see a true puzzle representative. The two most likely characters are Arle and Lip, who is also underrated. Arle and Puyo Puyo are very popular in Japan, and the natural pick for a puzzle character. If a third party like Crash can get a 31%, Arle should get at least 30%.

Most Underrated #3: Ashley (34.00%)
Ashley is insanely popular in Japan and is used in a ton of promotional material. She was both an assist and a Mii fighter costume in Sm4sh. The most popular Warioware character outside of Wario, and one of the most heavily promoted characters. Isabelle, who is in pretty much the same position as Ashley and has less moveset potential, got a 46%, so I see no reason as to why Ashley can't get atleast a 45%.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

People do know your votes for outright deconfirmed characters will not count right?

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Overrated

3. Decidueye
I do feel like the argument to add him because he completes the starter trio was always quite weak....but it's kind of been shattered by the return of Pokemon Trainer. There's also the fact that he made it in to Pokken which could be a slight mark against him. I also get the feeling this could be the first Smash game without a Pokemon newcomer, because of the limited spots available. (and Smash absolutely does not need a new Pokemon rep to sell, it's going to sell like hotcakes on the Switch regardless)

2. Arms Character
I think an Arms character could end up struggling more than people are expecting. Though I could see them getting in as a dlc character. That said Splatoon was in a similar position during the last Smash game and even with it's outrageous success could only manage a Mii costume. So if Splatoon couldn't get a playable character with all of it's success then I'm not confident Arms will be able to do it this time around.

1. Rex & Pyra
For similar reasons to the Arms character I think Rex & Pyra might struggle more than expected. This is weird because I have a lot of love for the Xenoblade Chronicles series and I think the series is absolutely deserving of a second rep but considering the spots for this game are supposedly going to be really tight I'm not sure if they'll have the fan push behind them to make it in. They weren't around for the ballot and with emphasis this time around on fan service, I could see Sakurai focusing his attention on characters that already have proven demand behind them. (I don't think they deserve to be treated this way, but I think it could happen)

tl;dr - I think newer, more "relevant" characters might actually struggle this time around. At least in terms of getting onto the base roster.

Underrated

3. Ashley
I wasn't sure whether to include Ashley or Geno in this spot but in the end I decided on Ashley. She has her own song in Smash and from what I've heard she has massive popularity in Japan. I could see her being Japan's "Ridley". 15th is still pretty good but I think it could be higher. Still not as glaringly underrated as the other two characters.

2. Isaac

Yeah sure he's my most wanted so of course I'd say that....but I do get the impression that there are plenty of people who don't think he's in the mix and just gloss over him....and I think that's a mistake considering the focus Sakurai seems to be putting on fan service this time around. I don't care what anyone says, 29th seems ridiculously low to me.

1. Banjo & Kazooie

31st is insanely low to me. It's crazy. Especially considering the leak that Minecraft is going to have content in the game. (notice the leak says content, we don't even know if Minecraft is getting a playable character) It's also been stated that Microsoft would have no problem with Banjo & Kazooie coming to Smash. People are definitely sleeping on Banjo.

tl;dr - Stop sleeping on obvious fan favourites.

I realise I put my top two as the two most underrated, but I do feel like they're not getting enough credit given the focus Smash is getting towards fan service this time.

 

[Organization XIII]

Honestly, my take on this is just about every character needs to re-evaluated. This Smash is playing by different rules and the usual "sales and relevance only" isn't going to be a good indicator. I don't even think the usual Pokemon and retro picks will be here this time. Under regular Smash development, Takamaru was a lock under this game nothing. How we've been doing things isn't going to work for Ultimate so my most overrated and underrated is everyone.

 

[Delzethin]

Honestly, my take on this is just about every character needs to re-evaluated. This Smash is playing by different rules and the usual "sales and relevance only" isn't going to be a good indicator. I don't even think the usual Pokemon and retro picks will be here this time. Under regular Smash development, Takamaru was a lock under this game nothing. How we've been doing things isn't going to work for Ultimate so my most overrated and underrated is everyone.

For what it's worth, on the Pokémon side of things, I feel like those saying "we have enough, they won't add a newcomer" are overlooking the times that line of thinking was proven wrong in the past. Remember when Rosalina meant we "had enough Mario characters" (something even I assumed), then Bowser Jr. got in? Or how Roy's return gave us "more than enough Fire Emblem characters", yet Corrin got in after some hesitation because of his/her unique shapeshifting stuff? Or we even saw it with Pokémon itself in Brawl, with Lucario getting in as a fourth new 'mon in that game!

Basically...it can definitely happen again if there's someone interesting enough to add, and Gen 7 definitely has a few that could qualify as interesting. Assuming they're all off the table just because the veteran 'mons, from very early generations no less, came back would be a mistake, and I hope enough people come to realize that.

 

[StrangeMann]

Overrated

3. Decidueye
I do feel like the argument to add him because he completes the starter trio was always quite weak....but it's kind of been shattered by the return of Pokemon Trainer. There's also the fact that he made it in to Pokken which could be a slight mark against him. I also get the feeling this could be the first Smash game without a Pokemon newcomer, because of the limited spots available. (and Smash absolutely does not need a new Pokemon rep to sell, it's going to sell like hotcakes on the Switch regardless)

2. Arms Character
I think an Arms character could end up struggling more than people are expecting. Though I could see them getting in as a dlc character. That said Splatoon was in a similar position during the last Smash game and even with it's outrageous success could only manage a Mii costume. So if Splatoon couldn't get a playable character with all of it's success then I'm not confident Arms will be able to do it this time around.

1. Rex & Pyra
For similar reasons to the Arms character I think Rex & Pyra might struggle more than expected. This is weird because I have a lot of love for the Xenoblade Chronicles series and I think the series is absolutely deserving of a second rep but considering the spots for this game are supposedly going to be really tight I'm not sure if they'll have the fan push behind them to make it in. They weren't around for the ballot and with emphasis this time around on fan service, I could see Sakurai focusing his attention on characters that already have proven demand behind them. (I don't think they deserve to be treated this way, but I think it could happen)

tl;dr - I think newer, more "relevant" characters might actually struggle this time around. At least in terms of getting onto the base roster.

Underrated

3. Ashley
I wasn't sure whether to include Ashley or Geno in this spot but in the end I decided on Ashley. She has her own song in Smash and from what I've heard she has massive popularity in Japan. I could see her being Japan's "Ridley". 15th is still pretty good but I think it could be higher. Still not as glaringly underrated as the other two characters.

2. Isaac

Yeah sure he's my most wanted so of course I'd say that....but I do get the impression that there are plenty of people who don't think he's in the mix and just gloss over him....and I think that's a mistake considering the focus Sakurai seems to be putting on fan service this time around. I don't care what anyone says, 29th seems ridiculously low to me.

1. Banjo & Kazooie

31st is insanely low to me. It's crazy. Especially considering the leak that Minecraft is going to have content in the game. (notice the leak says content, we don't even know if Minecraft is getting a playable character) It's also been stated that Microsoft would have no problem with Banjo & Kazooie coming to Smash. People are definitely sleeping on Banjo.

tl;dr - Stop sleeping on obvious fan favourites.

I realise I put my top two as the two most underrated, but I do feel like they're not getting enough credit given the focus Smash is getting towards fan service this time.

If you are citing the vergeben leak for banjo kazooie due to the minecraft involvement, why aren't you putting Simon Belmont in your top 3 under-rated? He was rated even lower than banjo in likeliness but would be substantially more likely than banjo by the same leak.

 

[Organization XIII]

For what it's worth, on the Pokémon side of things, I feel like those saying "we have enough, they won't add a newcomer" are overlooking the times that line of thinking was proven wrong in the past. Remember when Rosalina meant we "had enough Mario characters" (something even I assumed), then Bowser Jr. got in? Or how Roy's return gave us "more than enough Fire Emblem characters", yet Corrin got in after some hesitation because of his/her unique shapeshifting stuff? Or we even saw it with Pokémon itself in Brawl, with Lucario getting in as a fourth new 'mon in that game!

Basically...it can definitely happen again if there's someone interesting enough to add, and Gen 7 definitely has a few that could qualify as interesting. Assuming they're all off the table just because the veteran 'mons, from very early generations no less, came back would be a mistake, and I hope enough people come to realize that.

I don't think we are getting a new Pokemon because Sakurai is more focused on popular requests this time not we have too many but I do see your point and it's very true.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

If you are citing the vergeben leak for banjo kazooie due to the minecraft involvement, why aren't you putting Simon Belmont in your top 3 under-rated? He was rated even lower than banjo in likeliness but would be substantially more likely than banjo by the same leak.

I think I was just assuming that people were rating him higher because he was explicitly mentioned in the vergeben leak. You're right I should have properly checked.

 

[Delzethin]

I don't think we are getting a new Pokemon because Sakurai is more focused on popular requests this time not we have too many but I do see your point and it's very true.

And how are we so sure it must be only popular requests when we only know of two newcomers and one clone? Especially when Inkling and Ridley actually both adhere to the guidelines the Smash 4 team followed? This is too small of a sample size to assume the selection process for non-echo newcomers has radically changed, not when the two so far don't even indicate such on their own.

Seriously, Ridley didn't even come out of nowhere like people are saying. Sure, Sakurai took fan support into account, but Ridley's relevant thanks to Samus Returns and had the moveset potential and unique abilities to stand out! They didn't cave to demand like the narrative is saying, they just finally figured out a character concept for him that worked!

 

[Organization XIII]

And how are we so sure it must be only popular requests when we only know of two newcomers and one clone? Especially when Inkling and Ridley actually both adhere to the guidelines the Smash 4 team followed? This is too small of a sample size to assume the selection process for non-echo newcomers has radically changed, not when the two so far don't even indicate such on their own.

Seriously, Ridley didn't even come out of nowhere like people are saying. Sure, Sakurai took fan support into account, but Ridley's relevant thanks to Samus Returns and had the moveset potential and unique abilities to stand out! They didn't cave to demand like the narrative is saying, they just finally figured out a character concept for him that worked!

Because he's bringing back all the vets along with them. If it was a normal Smash game then yeah you'd be right but combined with no cuts hazard toggles battlefield versions of stages and a smaller newcomer pool, I'm thinking this game is all about the fanservice. Also, I know they just figured out how to make Ridley work I've been saying that since he was revealed. Sakurai wouldn't release a character if he didn't think he did it justice no matter how vocal a fanbase.

 

[Cosmic77]

I don't think we are getting a new Pokemon because Sakurai is more focused on popular requests this time not we have too many but I do see your point and it's very true.

Even if Sakurai is just doing fanservice, I'd still consider a Pokemon rep to be likely. Each new pair of Pokemon games easily breaks the 10 million mark within a few months, so it's not like Sakurai would have to defend himself for adding Pokemon #10 over Elma or Ashley.

 

[Diddy Kong]

Most Overrated #1:

Decidueye

Seriously, this character seems to rely all on bandwagonist support. I doubt his popularity really compares to the current cast. With Ivysaur also being back, and there being TWO Electric and Water type Pokemon, this whole forced concept really doesn't seem to hold water anymore. Which am glad about. If Decidueye where to get in, it'll be on the base of genuine popularity. And somehow, I think Sakurai is just gonna try and add the most popular of characters ever and I honestly DOUBT Decidueye fits that bill. I estimate it's chances about 25% max.

Most Overrated #2:

Isabelle

Nothing screams fighter potential in her appearance. Pichu is even a far more serious fighter than her, and Pichu is a damn BABY Pikachu but at least hails from a franchise where combat is the main aspect. Isabelle can remain her role in Animal Crossing and do other crossovers as Mario Kart and all, but Smash, outside of Assist Trophy status, isn't fit for her. And her popularity shouldn't force her in either.

Most Overrated #3:

Rex & Pyra

Sorry to say, as am not against the characters in the slightest. But the competition Elma offers seems bigger than I often thought. With Sakurai's comment of lowering newcomer expectations, I doubt there will be 2 Xenoblade newcomers. Smash Ultimate doesn't seem to add newcomers as Smash 4 did, and we should've seen that coming, cause Smash 4 also didn't include new characters in a similar fashion to Brawl and Melee. I could see them being DLC, but not on the base roster. Or at least, Elma should be taken in a more serious consideration as a new addition compared to them.

Most Underrated #1:

Impa

26.94%? Really? Now that Echo Fighters are a thing, her chances went Skyward. Easily one of the overall most anticipated Echo Fighters, especially now that just about every Zelda character (outside Ganondorf and Young Link) have a model based on a way different game. Which is a nice breath of fresh air. Link, Zelda and Ganondorf also aren't THAT much differenciated in their moveset to warrant a neglection of a newcomer. And Young Link's return also really doesn't give the franchise the justice that it has been denied for that long. Impa in her Skyward Sword design seems very likely as she's a reoccuring character, was heavily involved in the plot of Skyward Sword -which might get a HD remake on it's way- and even Hyrule Warriors, plus the whole Sheikah theme of Breath of the Wild hints at future importance of the Sheikah race in the Zelda franchise. Her chances should easily go up double the amount at the very least.

Most Underrated #2:

King K.Rool

It's fan favorite time. That has been established ever since the elephant in the room finally made itself noticable; Ridley. After Ridley, King K.Rool is easily the biggest requested character after. And his support has only been as short lived because Diddy Kong made his entry VERY LATE and all the support went to Diddy first, which is very logical. The Kremling Kampain has been noticed by Nintendo officials, Kremlings returned in Smash 3DS's Smash Run, King K.Rool got a Mii Costume as just about the only character with a new design made from scratch and there was even a 'K.Rool Ave' in Mario Oddysey. He's popular, demanded, and there've been rumors about a new DKC game in the make... I expect him to show up whenever a new DKC game does. It's only a matter of time now, hopefully.

Most Underrated #3:

Geno?

Yeah had to look hard for this one. Elma and Dixie where runner ups, but I felt their placement was more justified. Geno also enjoyed a long lasting support fanbase, and Super Mario RPG was one of the featured games on the SNES Mini. There also was a Mii Costume based on Geno, Cloud has returned so that means Square is involved yet again, even Konami gave their premision for using Snake as a fighter and Bomberman as an AT, so am pretty sure 3rd party developers are also willing to do All In for Smash Ultimate. And that might mean Geno will also be there, which I don't think is unlikely. That costume was quite detailed after all, and Bowser's fighter video apperantly has SMRPG music on it.

 

[harukaamami]

One final bit about Ashley before this discussion ends that only I have mentioned: Arcade Bunny being an Assist Trophy means that Sakurai and the development team are perfectly aware of how much that game pushed her. Just an example:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C0U9oS-UUAA3Z_K.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvQhd-tUsAAssVu.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CzM3X0fUoAArvFC.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAJdAIRUwAAzJvt.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C7pmTYlVsAkcCnX.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C41WqPAUcAEC-hp.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2AyauRUAAAJJun.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C05AwnyUcAAMuny.jpg

Ashley was the single character with the most badges.

 

[Smasher 101]

Note: None of these are in any particular order.

Overrated

Honestly there's quite a few characters I feel are overrated (and I'm guilty of it in several cases), but these are three that stand out to me.

-- Crash Bandicoot

Simply put, if he's in it's almost certainly going to be as DLC assuming it happens, and I don't take that into account. The port wouldn't have shown up in time for the main game, and while he's iconic I don't think he would have had enough to get him in without it. Other third parties feel more likely to me.

-- Decidueye

I personally still think we're likely to get someone from Gen VII (though I've dropped my scores slightly), but I don't think Decidueye should be that much higher than the other two frontrunners. I feel they should all have roughly the same score.

-- Captain Toad

While Toad being seen doesn't take him out completely, it definitely hurts him. Still has one major competitor left to deal with too, if we get another Mario newcomer.

Honorable mentions to Rex & Pyra because I'm finally ready to admit that timing may be an issue + Elma can easily get in above them, as well as Celica because I'm less confident in a unique Fire Emblem newcomer than I once was.

Underrated

After adjusting my rankings up and down based on the new info, there are currently three potential newcomers that I feel like are more likely than not. All of which feel too low as of now, so!

-- Simon Belmont

Even without the leak things are looking really good for him. The two things going against him (Konami and Bomberman) are no longer a problem, and he's an iconic and unique character from a franchise that has close ties to Nintendo and that has been specifically mentioned by Sakurai as one of his influences. The leak being correct thus far is just icing on the cake.

-- Dark Samus

I won't be giving 1% again! She's one of the more obvious possibilities for an echo fighter, and not only is her assist trophy currently absent, Samus doesn't have her Dark Samus inspired alt anymore. That's pretty suspicious.

-- Isabelle

She's a potential echo fighter choice if she can't be unique, her assist trophy hasn't shown up yet, she's arguably one of the most notable Nintendo characters not currently playable, and the only other major possibility for another Animal Crossing is out of the running. Even before E3 I felt her score was too low, now I definitely feel she needs to be revisited.

Honorable mention to Chrom. Like Dark Samus, he's someone who I originally thought had no hope yet now seems like a plausible echo fighter contender. There's a few others that need to be adjusted up too.

 

[skylanders fan]

I'll go overated first

1. Decidueye
was picked high as the big completeing part of end of the line starter type pokemon. And now with us getting charizard with Pokemon Trainer and pichu back I think pokemon roster may be good for this game.

2. Arms Charcter
while many myself included figured this was a lock looks like with a limited newcomer roster and a huge look at fan serviece they may sit this out till dlc.

3. Steve
everyone was thinking we would see him this E3 and while we still could I just think that if they had him planned they would have shown him there.

underated

1. King K Rool (and possibly Dixie)
fan demand has been a big theme of this Smash nad one of the biggest fan asked for charcter I have seen is him. Not to mention i could see a trailer revealing Dixie as a echo fighter and King K Rool in the same one.

2. Dark Samus
pretty much everyone has said everything about this but yeah she has a chance

3. Skull Kid
another missing AT that could make the jump to a newcomer as they are no longer just focusing on 1/2 version of LOZ games. He has a pretty decent fanbase and would be a big way to please zelda and nintendo fans

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Y’all have till 12:00 pm edt to get your votes in while I tally them.

 

[NotLiquid]

Most Overrated:
1. Decidueye
When there was still some benefit of doubt as to whether Smash Ultimate was going to represent every single character in the series it was easy to envision a scenario wherein Decidueye would get in as the next playable Pokémon as that would've covered the lack of a grass Pokémon. That said, a lot of people seem to have made the assumption that because Greninja was the most popular Gen 6 starter, and because Decidueye was arguably the most popular one of Gen 7, that meant it had to be in... when in reality, being a "starter" has never dictated whether a Smash character is included, let alone it being the most popular Pokémon of that generation. A large majority of the Pokémon fighters in Smash tend to be based on overall popularity and merchandising, much of which is brought about by the anime. Mewtwo and Lucario are in the games just because of their movies, arguably the same goes for Pichu. Greninja was chosen in concept phase but the Pokémon Company by that point would have already figured out what Pokémon was going to be "important" in merchandising (as proof of this, Mimikyu concept sketches from it's inception had it already decided that it would be a main Pokémon in the anime by showing it off with Jessie). Decidueye only has the benefit of being the most popular final evolution of a starter, but in the grand scheme of the Pokémon itself it's not even close to the most relevant Gen 7 Pokémon - especially when hilariously enough, there's a Pikachu effect going on given that Rowlet has proven to be more popular in that evolution line. Finally one of the more damning things in regards to it's chances is the fact that Decidueye already stars in Pokkén, and it's been suggested that they try to go with characters that aren't already represented as playable in Smash so as to differentiate the offerings of the two series (hence why Greninja isn't playable in it). With all that in mind, Decidueye might have been a logical choice at one point but it's clear to me that this is a character that people only look at with tunnel vision and a lot of faulty assumptions.

2. Captain Toad
It's been kinda undeniable that Captain Toad worked his way up the ranks rather quickly as a prominent Mario character with appearances in every mainline Mario game and even his own spinoff to boot. If Mario was yet in need for a key character representation then bringing the only one of the Toads that has seemingly been granted a character of their own would've been an easy choice. That having been said, even if we set aside that the toolset and character is literally built off of the concept of "assisting" (making him a prime Assist Trophy candidate), the expansion of Peach's moveset to make Toad a more involved combatant isn't doing his chances any favors. On top of that, the Captain Toad game wasn't exactly a title that set the world on fire in terms of sales; it was a budgeted release, and an eventual Switch/3DS port would highly unlikely be something Sakurai would be privy of or even acknowledge when going into Smash Switch's development.

3. Elma
Another character I would've assumed was a given depending on how Smash Ultimate's project outline was shaping up but which fell down somewhat substantially for me given the current congestion of Smash and the seeming implication that we're not only getting fewer new characters this time around but also Echo Fighters as a concept to seemingly cover the slack. This can go either way depending on the number of newcomers but if we're to assume that we might not get more than 6 or so brand new characters then her inclusion seems less likely given how cutthroat the shortlist is going to be, and the knowledge that Xenoblade X wasn't exactly the most financially successful title, which kind of puts her in a borderline B-to-C list character. She has the added benefit of there not exactly being all that many brand new characters that feel "necessary" to include, but unless Rex & Pyra weren't already in consideration going into the project plan then Elma at best is looking like an Assist Trophy in the making.

Most Underrated:
1. Ashley
The proportion of which Ashley crops up in prediction lists or characters people want the most is kind of funnily non-indicative over the actual popularity this character has. Maybe it's the subconscious thought of "it's a given", or not feeling the need to make mention of a character most people would assume will get in anyway, but the fact is Ashley is one of the rare characters in Nintendo's repertoire who's built up a name for herself as a cross-promotional mascot. She isn't just limited to her WarioWare roots (which is now seeing a resurgence, with the recent title having been in plans since 2015), but her appearance in Rhythm Heaven, Badge Arcade (with a BUNCH of badges), some of the highest quantities of individual 3DS themes dedicated to one character, an entire April Fools joke dedicated to a new game with her as protagonist, being used to promote Tank Troopers, and also a pair of webcomics on Nintendo Japan's Kids page where she also crosses over with Daigasso Band Brothers, it's quite a lot to take in. You could argue much of these crossover appearances could be down to Ko Takeuchi simply thinking of her as his favorite character to draw, but Nintendo are still wholly cognizant of said popularity, and Sakurai has even commented on her being a breakout star - after Smash Bros. 4 released. Is she the most likely newcomer? Probably not. But is she the most slept on? Without a doubt.

2. Isabelle
I would've at one point argued that Nintendo probably wouldn't really want a non-combatant character like Isabelle to be a "playable fighter" given her extremely popular and kid-friendly exterior, but her absence as an Assist Trophy is a bit sketch. I wouldn't have expected another Animal Crossing to be a playable fighter given the limited pool of moves you could make which Villager now covers succinctly, but with the presence of Echo Fighters, Isabelle seems pretty prime for a character that can borrow those moves.

3. Dark Samus
And speaking of Prime, perhaps the most likely Echo Fighter overall outside of Shadow, Dark Samus in Smash 4 had already borrowed/repurposed pretty much all of Samus' attack animations. In Smash Ultimate, the Dark Samus palette has been replaced. You do the math.

 

[DaUsername]

Overrated
1. Rex & Pyra
They might be too recent to make it in the base roster. Even I overrated them.
2. ARMS Newcomer
Same reason as above.
3. Decidueye
With 9 characters, I'm convinced we won't even get a Pokémon newcomer this time. At least not in the base roster.
Underrated
1. Simon Belmont
Snake is back and his main competition is an assist trophy. There's also the leak I guess.
2. Ashley
We haven't seen her AT yet, and she is pretty popular, so it might happen.
3. King K. Rool
We got one big guy, the other shouldn't be that far behind.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Top Inaccurate Predictions of RTC

This is absolutely unfair, and I say this even after going through this song-and-dance back in Smash 4. No one even suspected the direction that Smash 5 was going to take, or that clones would be officially welcomed with open arms, or that Ridley would be one of the first newcomers we'd be given. Can we really say that we "overrated" and "underrated", when Ultimate so thoroughly bamboozled our expectations?

Overrated

3. Decidueye
I'm not putting this at number 1 like so many others, because that presupposes that people rated him for a roster with both Pichu and Pokemon Trainer in it. Still, he received his score long before Lycanroc and Mimikyu's arguments were given a serious look, riding upon logic similar to Greninja's inclusion and little else. And that's not considering that there's already 2 unique archers in the roster, going up to 5 when you include echoes and semi-clones. Decidueye appeals, but he doesn't have the mainstay power that other naturally-popular Pokemon have.

2. Shovel Knight
The chances for almost any indie candidates have just dropped hard. I've said this before: indies are characterized by standing apart from triple-A studios, which is a point against them when Smash decides it wants to polish its own history foremost. Shovel Knight is a current and popular guy, but still relative recent; his chances always seem more based on how friendly his company is to lending him out for crossovers, rather than whether Nintendo or Sakurai actually want him for Smash.

1. Rex and Pyra
Really, really late to the party. Normally, having your game launch only 2 years after a Smash roster's formation is a big enough negative, but now Smash seems thoroughly steered away from picking the newest and coolest. Look at all the Splatoon content in Ultimate so far: notice how it's all based on stuff from Splatoon 1, and not Splatoon 2? Wouldn't they have made the effort to represent Splatoon 2 more, considering that it's on the same console Ultimate is coming to? If Xenoblade becomes the new Fire Emblem, then fine, but there's just no precedent that it's getting such a treatment just yet.

Honorable Mention: Dillon
His latest game has done nothing to raise him beyond the B-list. Now the newcomer slots look tighter than we expected, and Sakurai's eye looks more focused to the past than the future. While Dark Samus and Ashley's absences are certainly suspect, I don't believe that Dillon's is.


Underrated

3. Isaac
Isaac is a, well, consistent wishlist pick that doesn't really have that many barriers preventing his inclusion, if only his series weren't so dead at the moment. This assumes, of course, that Ridley's inclusion suggests the inclusions of other long-standing candidates, but if Smash is really dusting off its thickest candidacy files, then Isaac is a much more likely consideration than he was before.

2. Impa
One of the only Zelda characters with more than one game appearance, the existence of the echo fighter designation now gives a clearer way to represent Impa, evne with Sheik around. Impa's main barrier had always been the question of how to put a Zelda ninja into Smash when Smash already had one, and the variety of game appearances that the Zelda characters now sport helps remove her problem of how to be depicted.

1. Simon Belmont
Okay, fine. At the end of the day, no matter how many terrible things Konami has pulled over the past few years, they still own some of the most famous and influential game properties in the world. And just because they're not interested in making good games anymore doesn't mean they wouldn't turn down the opportunity to let someone else depict those properties faithfully for them. And just because the internet generally hates them now doesn't mean Nintendo would automatically reject any collaborations with them. Castlevania is still big, even if Simon himself isn't, so if Sakurai wants him as part of his vision for the biggest game crossover ever, and if all the drama that happened wasn't enough to prevent both Snake's return and Bomberman's cameo, then there's little else that Simon would actually have to worry about.

Honorable Mention: Sora
Suddenly, we find out that Disney might actually be fine with the idea of lending Sora out as long as Nomura is fine with how it's done, and that it's Nomura who's particular about how Sora is depicted outside of the Kingdom Hearts games, rather than faceless Disney stockholders. While it's probably too late at this point, seeing as the question of Sora in Smash was answered honestly instead of evasively, it does suggest that the real matters of legality are limited only to whether Sakurai can satisfy Nomura's discerning taste. And considering that thedevelopment of Cloud, another of Nomura's characters, happened without Sakurai hearing a single complaint or correction, then that'd leave the ball resting firmly in Sakurai's court. Kingdom Hearts isn't exactly historical, but it's still a big name that'd garner even bigger hype.

Honorable Mention: Potential Echo Fighters (Dark Samus, Funky Kong, Chrom)
Can't really call these "underrated" when we didn't know echo fighters would become a thing. I mean, consider the conditions: they have to be a popular and desired character while also being mechanically interchangeable with an existing fighter. So it's basically characters being judged by relevance and popularity alone, but with lower relevance requirements; they don't have to argue about what kind of moveset they'd bring along, as long as they can borrow someone else's. Imagine how many characters you could add if you subtracted the issues of conception and balance that come with every new moveset. Crazy who you could get away with at that point! You could get Dark Pit, of all people, added to Smash this way!


Nominations
Ninten x5

 

[Ze Diglett]

Well, now that E3's over, back to this thread...

Most Overrated

3. Captain Toad
Call me crazy, but I don't think he stood much of a chance to begin with, and given how tight the competition for newcomer slots is gonna be this time around, I think he stands even less of a chance next to heavy hitter ballot picks like Geno. And boy, am I happy for that!

2. Decidueye
I still think he's the most likely candidate for a new Pokemon, but now that Pokemon has a whopping seven slots on the CSS, it's doubtful as to whether we'll even get a new Pokemon or not. Not out of the question, but he's hardly as much of a lock as we made him out to be.

1. Rex & Pyra
Yeah, you saw this coming. The lack of anything Splatoon 2-related in what we've seen so far of the game doesn't exactly bode well for anything post-2016 for the base game, especially late-2017 like Xenoblade 2. I still think they're a lock for DLC, but as for the base roster, they're practically out of the question.

Most Underrated

3. Dark Samus
Echo Fighters being planned from the start aren't really something any of us could have seen coming, so it makes sense that we largely dismissed the idea of Dark Samus being a clone. With the absence of Samus' Dark Samus alt and Dark Samus as an Assist Trophy, however, it could be happening. We'll just have to wait and see.

2. Geno
I'll put him as number 2 since I don't think he wasn't really underrated by that much (do recall seeing a healthy amount of zeros on his day, though; those people are probably feeling pretty silly now), but given this game's overt focus on fanservice and how few newcomer slots there are, it makes sense to load those slots up with heavily requested ballot picks, i.e. Geno. We're already seeing it with Ridley and, to a lesser extent, Daisy as an Echo, so I think this lad has a much better chance than most of us initially bargained for.

1. Chrom
Never thought I'd be putting this down. This is sort of a similar deal to Dark Samus where Echo Fighters hit us from completely out of the blue, and considering how much flak he got from Sakurai for being "too similar" to Ike and Marth, I think the circumstances are lining up just right for this 8% candidate to nab a slot as an Echo Fighter. If he's still tethered to Robin via his Final Smash, however, it's over for him.

Nominating Geno (Rerate) x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Even if Sakurai is just doing fanservice, I'd still consider a Pokemon rep to be likely. Each new pair of Pokemon games easily breaks the 10 million mark within a few months, so it's not like Sakurai would have to defend himself for adding Pokemon #10 over Elma or Ashley.

I get what you're saying and your right no one could deny the appeal of another Pokemon but I still don't think we will get one. I think most newcomers are influenced by the ballot and while a Pokemon could have been high up there I don't think they were

 

[Slyshock]

Abstaining from Most Overrated.

Most Underrated

Banjo and Kazooie
They must've done fantastic on the ballot, if Ultimate is interested in making fan dreams come true then Burger and King are an obvious choice. The leak mentioning non-playable Minecraft representation makes Microsoft involvement all but guaranteed, and it'd be strange to work with one of Nintendo's biggest rivals just for a stage or assist trophy. It's not impossible that Minecraft could get playable representation by itself, but between the leak seeming sure that that's not the case and Bomberman setting the precedent that a 3rd party franchise doesn't need to have playable representation to be included that seems unlikely.

Isabelle
Between her popularity, relevance and lack of deconfirmation, she's easily the most likely unleaked newcomer. While I don't believe she'll be an Echo since she would've been one of the first names brought up in planning, I think it's much more likely than her not being playable at all.

Simon Belmont
Being explicitly mentioned and adamantly defended by the most accurate leak we have is nothing to sneeze at. Seems unlikely he was just a mistaken assist trophy, little reason why he wouldn't have been revealed alongside Bomberman if that was the case.

Sora was tremendously underrated in hindsight, but I still believe the 3 characters above are more likely to be playable in the base roster than him. Blame leaks.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[Pacack]

Forgive me if I'm being dense, but how have Captain Toad's chances changed at all?

The reveal that Toads are more active in Peach/Daisy's movesets is, if anything, an indication that Sakurai recognizes the popularity of the Toad species and the criticisms fans had of the meat-shield representation. It's not a negative when the character that's in the moveset isn't even the character at hand.

Plus, even if there are very few newcomers, a Mario newcomer seems like it would be prioritized by virtue of being...y'know...the Mario series. If any series is going to get a newcomer and an echo, it's Mario.

 

[Cosmic77]

Ironically, I feel like a lot of characters people are claiming to be underrated will be considered overrated in less than a month or two. Seems like being a potential Echo Fighter or being an Assist Trophy not shown at E3 is enough to warrant being considered "likely".

I get what you're saying and your right no one could deny the appeal of another Pokemon but I still don't think we will get one. I think most newcomers are influenced by the ballot and while a Pokemon could have been high up there I don't think they were

I don't think there's much evidence so far to support the ballot being the inspiration for most newcomers.

Splatoon was such a hit that Inklings would've gotten in Smash with or without the ballot.
Ridley likely did terrible in the ballot thanks to his role as a stage boss and Sakurai's comments.
Daisy wasn't even close to being more popular than Captain Toad, Waluigi, or Geno. Look who got in Smash first.

Three characters isn't enough to determine which characters are more likely. For now, I'm assuming nothing has changed with Sakurai's process of choosing characters.

 

[RandomAce]

Overrated Characters:

#3 Waluigi:

I did not in the blink of an eye ever saw Waluigi playable. He’a a big meme at this point, and wasn’t a strong character that I think was ever likely to be a character ever.

#2 Mimikyu:

I have a lot for this guy.

I was thinking of putting Decidueye here, but that was talked to death, but Mimikyu? With 37%? Above Lycanroc? WHAT? Mimikyu never felt like a front runner in my opinion it was just Lycanroc and Decidueye. Like I get that the Pokémon is VERY popular, but the Pokémon fits more as Pokeball role than an actual fighter compared to those two. Plus, now that we have Pichu having a NEWCOMER be a rendition of Pikachu is something I can’t see Sakurai willing to add.

Mimikyu never is or was a front runner. Popularity was the only reason it was pushed but having Disguise doesn’t make up a move set for it, not to mention the plethera of other characters that can lend a more fun move set compared to Mimikyu.

#1 Decidueye

I’m going to still put Decidueye here anyway but I can understand why people push for it, it has to potential for a unique move set and is a starter. But this guy was the embodiment of what people saw as a “confirmed” newcomer. Before the Lycanroc renaissance we had at Smashboards, when it came to Pokémon, all that was talked about was Decidueye this, Decidueye that, maybe something about Mimikyu (But you know I felt about that one), and it was mostly because it was a grass starter.

Now that Pokémon Trainer filled the Trinity starter niche, I can see that a lot of support for Decidueye will fall hard seeing how being a grass starter was the main reason people supported him. And it can even slightly decrease it’s chances.

Honorable Mentions:
Crash Bandicoot

Underrated Character:

1. Ridley

I understand that many people didn’t think Ridley would ever be a newcomer and gave it basically zeros and low scores, but at the end of the day they were wrong and Ridley in all it’s glory is in. Even then you can’t deny Ridley’s popularity, people have been asking him for years as the top notch villian of the Metroid series to get in. So Sakurai would’ve at least tried very hard to have Ridley join to make those fans happy.

2. Issac

Although there are reasons why Issac chances have fallen, Smash Ultimate seems to be the time where Issac finally gets to join the fray. Issac had consistent popularity and still remains one of the most popular wants people want for Smash since Brawl and popularity through the ballot. Not to mention Issac’s unique potential move set, and I believe that Issac has a legitimate shot for this game.

3. Sora

The low scores on this character is insane. Sora was always considered a no go for Disney, but with after we learned about how Sora is handled and how it’s really up to Nomura who decides, along with his HUGE popularity throughout the ballot, I think Sora is one of the most likely third party characters because of it, and I think Sakurai would talk to Nomura and get Sora to please the fans who’ve been asking for him.

Honorable Mentions:
Simon Belmont

Nominations:
x5 Ayumi Tachibana

 

[Pacack]

Overrated Characters:

#3 Waluigi:

I did not in the blink of an eye ever saw Waluigi playable. He’a a big meme at this point, and wasn’t a strong character that I think was ever likely to be a character ever.

Underrated Character:

1. Ridley

I understand that many people didn’t think Ridley would ever be a newcomer and gave it basically zeros and low scores, but at the end of the day they were wrong and Ridley in all it’s glory is in. Even then you can’t deny Ridley’s popularity, people have been asking him for years as the top notch villian of the Metroid series to get in. So Sakurai would’ve at least tried very hard to have Ridley join to make those fans happy.

Confirmed or disconfirmed characters are ineligible for voting if you want your nominations to count as votes.

 

[Mario123311]

Once again, that was facial animations. Their designs were finalized earlier.


Plenty of these characters we had not rated. Please only discuss characters we have rated or votes won’t be counted.

Hence why I edited my post shortly before this reply. My apologies.

 

[Organization XIII]

Ironically, I feel like a lot of characters people are claiming to be underrated will be considered overrated in less than a month or two. Seems like being a potential Echo Fighter or being an Assist Trophy not shown at E3 is enough to warrant being considered "likely".



I don't think there's much evidence so far to support the ballot being the inspiration for most newcomers.

Splatoon was such a hit that Inklings would've gotten in Smash with or without the ballot.
Ridley likely did terrible in the ballot thanks to his role as a stage boss and Sakurai's comments.
Daisy wasn't even close to being more popular than Captain Toad, Waluigi, or Geno. Look who got in Smash first.

Three characters isn't enough to determine which characters are more likely. For now, I'm assuming nothing has changed with Sakurai's process of choosing characters.

I actually disagree about Ridley the fanbase was still rabid about his inclusion and still voted highly not to mention we have actual confirmation the ballot was used for this game (not that we needed it it was so obviously going to be) but at the end of the day this is just a theory mate we have little to go off and what we do lead me to this conclusion. For all I can see is his process has changed

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Most Overrated:

#1: Rex and Pyra.

Yeah, I'm sorry, but I think these two are immensely overrated. Unless Xenoblade ends up getting similar treatment to FE, I really don't see them happening. Regardless of whenever their designs were completed, they're still very new to their franchise and are very new overall. The fact that they have even been considered the most likely newcomers here baffles me. Being fair, I'm not sure who took DLC into consideration for their chance ratings for this pair, but I sure as heck don't see them getting on the base roster.

#2: ARMS Character.

Similar to the above, but to a considerably lesser extent. And unlike the above, they're from a very new and fresh IP, one that hadn't established itself by the time this game was likely in development. The only thing that really potentially helps their case is that they would fit in perfectly on the roster being from a fighting game of their own. And I don't think that's enough to let that happen. I don't think they are any more likely to get a newcomer in this game than Splatoon (then itself another very new IP that hadn't established itself until later) was back in Smash 4. It's simply too new, imo. There are no precedents for a character from a completely new IP getting into an almost equally new Smash game. And yeah, Ultimate is a new animal, as Smash 4 was from Brawl, but there's nothing specific that has happened in Ultimate that we know so far that can be reasonably said puts anything in the favor of an ARMS newcomer getting in. I honestly believe lot of people called this one too early.

#3: Decidueye.

Not as overrated as than the above, imo. I had a hard time putting him on this list at all. I'm actually mainly putting him here for one reason; he's the highest rated Pokemon on the chance chart. That, and he's considered the second most likely newcomer, right behind Rex and Pyra.

Now, I still don't doubt that we'll get a Pokemon newcomer, even with the many returning Pokemon veterans, but I don't think it's quite fair to single out Decidueye as the most likely of the many options Pokemon's latest generation has to offer. He's got popularity, yeah, but so does his starter form Rowlet, and there are other Pokemon with tons of popularity (which ones being the most popular or how their popularity compares to one and other's, is debatable, and I don't think we even have many good sources to prove any of their cases) and others also receive plenty of more time and prominence in the anime (including Rowlet itself, I believe) and more merchandising, as well. Pokenon are chosen based on "What's hot", and there isn't enough evidence Decidueye clearly has that in it's favor compared to much of it's competition. A Pokemon newcomer was always very likely, if not guaranteed, imo, but for the time being, and even prior to now, I don't think we can really gauge which one is the most likely of them all. Decidueye might've even escaped my overrated list if it weren't for being one of the highest rated chance characters, here.

Most Underrated:

Beh, picking out most of these is gonna be tough.....

#1: Isabelle.

I really think this cute little gal's got a good shot at getting the game. Maybe even simply as an echo fighter, because while I can see her performing other abilities, distinctly different from Villager's, I could see her doing the things Villager can do, as well. That said, I'm not really taking echo fighters into consideration when placing her as #1, here, because we had no idea they existed until E3. I always thought she could differentiate her moveset from Villager's and still prove unique and fun. Being Animal Crossing's new mascot right next to Villager helps a lot.

At least she's in the top 10 of chance, I will admit that, though having one of the lowest standings on it. And her overall chance score is a less likely than not one, too. So that's why she managed to make my underrated list. In the top 10 or not, she's still not seen here as being more likely to get in than not.

#2: Impa.

Still think she is one of the more likely Zelda newcomers, if admittedly not terribly likely herself. But I do think she deserved to do better than she did. Her design isn't too consistent, but I honestly never thought that was much of an issue for her. Being one of the few important recurring Zelda characters left, I think she had better odds this time around.

#3 Cranky Kong.

Even I admittedly didn't rate Cranky terribly high, but with the character getting a return to prominence, I think he should be taken into serious consideration much like K. Rool and Dixie are.

 

[RandomAce]

Confirmed or disconfirmed characters are ineligible for voting if you want your nominations to count as votes.

Oh my bad. Sure you can count my nominations as votes.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ok So here is the final tally

Spoiler

Decidueye 40
Elma 7
Celica 6
Chrom 9
Dark Samus 19
Isaac 6
K. Rool 9
Excitebiker 3
Rayman 5
Captain Toad 17
Ashley 17
Impa 11
Isabelle 9
Chibi Robo 1
Rex and Pyra 25
Simon Belmont 22
Funky Kong 5
Shantae 1
Arms Newcomer 8
Spyro 1
Geno 9
Arle 2
Dillon 2
Shovel Knight 2
Mimikyu 7
Black Shadow 2
Steve 2
Crash Bandicoot 5
Sora 6
Lucas the Wizard 1
Bandana Dee 1
Banjo 3
Doomguy 1
Lycanroc 3
Mipha 1
Cranky Kong 1

So, seems like a bit of a bandwagon here. Decidueye will have his day of reckoning tomorrow. Due to expecting less of a bandwagon, my words have come back to bite me a bit.

Today we had a tie of sorts, so since K Rool had a mixed set of overrated and underrated we shall go with him, Today we got Chrom, K Rool, Captain Toad, and Ashley. Tomorrow we shall rate Dark Samus, Rex and Pyra, Simon Belmont, and Decidueye... and Lycanroc and Mimikyu because I made a cocky statement. Lots of calcs.


Also in terms of housekeeping, we shall be doing structured days for a while to cope with the huge change that Universe brings to speculation. A schedule will be released tomorrow. The front page will be updated this week.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Okay, this was faster than I thought.

Let me do my obvious number one pick first:

Captain Toad
Chance: 50%
Okay, so I was mulling this over today and I'm a bit on the fence.

So Toad is in the game...as a more fleshed out part of Peach's moveset. That's pretty good to be honest and at first I thought it looked a bit bleak for a playable Toad...but...

Toad isn't Captain Toad.
This has been stated by the director of Treasure Tracker and we've seen Captain Toad MEET Blue Toad in Super Mario 3D World. They have different abilities, they have different personalities; Toad as seen in the new Peach counter is a bit of a little badass who can whoop ass and 'lift' as he puts it in Mario and Rabbids whilst Captain Toad is a plucky adventurer who gets by on his wits and luck most the time.

But even if Toad WAS Captain Toad?
We got Mario and Dr. Mario in the same roster just hanging out together. They're canonically the same guy. The exact same guy. How two different guys affect one anothers score is a little questionable to me, it'd be like writing Bandana Waddle Dee off because Dedede is carried onto the battlefield by regular Waddle Dees and it seems a tad early for a definite conclusion.

That Toad counter by the way? Gorgeous. Look at him;

He honestly looks great. Check out the detail on his belt there!

If Sakurai is prioritising easy adds, then heyo; we already got a Toad model to work from. He would probably fight differently(expecting heavy useage of Turnips, and a pickaxe if he got in, but could see him doing the counter too) but that's a bit of time saved right there.

Lastly I'm suspicious by the absense of Toadette. If Daisy was going to have a similar looking counter, surely Toadette would be a more famous and popular choice to have as her Toad equivalent? Instead they went with Blue Toad which is...well just strikes me as odd since Daisy actually has hung out with Toadette more. Toadette is unlikely to be added on her own, but she makes for great alt/echo material for Captain Toad.

That said, I can easily see Captain Toad NOT happening with Sakurai feeling he's placated Toad fans plenty with the new Peach and Daisy throws and counters in addition to a possible returning Mii Brawler outfit. But Toad isn't actually Captain Toad...

Want: 100000000000%

Please watch this animated moveset. I worked my ass off on it, and hopefully you'll get a little bit of that passion through the video.

Since Smash 64 was released, all I've wanted is a playable Toad. Seriously. My first Mario game was SMB2, my first Mario Kart experience was with Toad, I used to watch the Super Mario Super Show with...you guessed it; Toad, and my favourite puzzle game was Wario's Woods. Toad seemed to be in a lot of things I enjoyed, and whilst I'm now glad Sakurai's given him a modicum of respect, I cannot see this being an Ultimate Roster without some sort of playable Toad figure.

With Captain having some interesting mechanics, and becoming a mainstay in the Super Mario series since Mario Galaxy, his popularity in SM3DW even landing him his own full fledged game, and Sakurai's love of gimmicky characters it seems an utter shame to pass up on the star of one of the most popular Wii U titles, capable of bringing something new to the series as well as proving himself the latest rising star of the Mushroom Kingdom.

It's the MUSHROOM kingdom for crying out loud. Let's get a mushroom man in there.

I'll rate the others shortly, but felt Captain Toad required special treatment from me.

 

[JaidynReiman]

King K. Rool

Chance: 80%

My optimistic has only increased, but I rated him 75% last time. I still can't say he's a lock, just that he's VERY likely.

Based on what we've seen, I'm very much under the impression this game will be all about fanservice. They're focusing on appealing to the core fans of Smash, by bringing back all vets and introducing Ridley. I have no doubt the ballot is going to be drawn upon heavily for this title. This is also why I'm somewhat optimistic about Isaac's chances.

Yes, there are a few characters who won't be ballot based, such as Inklings, but I think they'll be fewer in number this time. I also think that highly rated characters who aren't original enough to get a fully unique moveset, but are clone-y enough to be Echo Fighters, will be considered as Echo Fighters, too.

Want: 100%

Of course.


Chrom

Chance: 55%

I think he's slightly likely to get in as an Echo Fighter of Ike. Ike's not split between RD and PoR, so he lost his Chrom inspired recolor. And they've carefully avoided showing off Robin's Final Smash so far. Chrom is definitely one of the top candidates.

Want: 60%

I'm only giving him this right now because I feel like it'd be a nice service to Chrom fans. Personally, I don't care one way or the other.


Ashley

Chance: 40%

I can't really comment on it too much. Personally, I think she's got a decent shot at making it, but I can't rate her at or higher than 50%.

Want: 30%

Personally, I don't really want her in mostly out of bias. There's not going to be many original newcomers this time around, and I'd rather have Dixie or Isaac. I'm not concerned about her getting in over K. Rool, though.


Impa

Chance: 60%

Personally I think she's one of the most likely Echo Fighters. Impa would just fit that role perfectly alongside Sheik. She could also work as a Skyward Sword representative.

Want: 80%

I'd love to see it.


Captain Toad

Chance: 30%

I don't think its happening. And I think he's actually a really likely Assist Trophy candidate.

Want: 40%

Eh. I don't care.



Yes, I accidentally posted it after just entering K. Rool's name. Whoops.



EDIT:

"Today we got Chrom, K Rool, Captain Toad, and Ashley."

Meanwhile, the title of the thread says:

"K. Rool, Impa, Ashley, and Captain Toad"

I ended up doing all five of them.

 

[Cosmic77]

K. Rool

Chance - 30%
This guy isn't guaranteed by any means. He still has competition from other DK reps, and his lack of relevancy is an issue as always. His insane popularity is the only thing he has going for him right now.

Want - 20%
I originally wanted this guy just so Sakurai would acknowledge the fans. However, now that we have Ridley, I'm comfortable not getting any more fanservice characters. I'd actually prefer the other three Kongs before this guy, just because I feel like they'd be more fitting and just as unique.

Chrom

Chance - 5%
Three characters from Awakening? Can't see how that would backfire on Sakurai.

Sakurai is aware that people are touchy with clones. Sakurai is aware that people are touchy with FE. Yet for some reason, people think that this guy is likely to come back just because Ike's alt wasn't shown at E3?

Want - 0%
Absolutely not.

Ashley

Chance - 25%
I hope the people who rate her today realize that none of the WarioWare Assists were shown off at E3. If we randomly saw 9-Volt or Mona as a new Assist Trophy, I might be a little more suspicious. But we didn't, so as far as I'm concerned, nothing has changed.

Want - 50%
She's cool, I guess. I wouldn't want her over certain characters, but I don't hate her either.

Captain Toad

Chance - 15%
I think his chances took a big hit from a combination of both Toad in Peach's moveset and Daisy. Strange things can happen, but I'm starting to get to a point where a Captain Toad reveal would genuinely shock me.

Want - 25%
Sorry, but I'm still an avid supporter for vanilla Toad.


Wait, we rating Impa or Chrom? The title says Impa but, TCTPhantom said to rate Chrom.

...Eh, I'll just do both.

Impa

Chance - 20%
Not sure why people are suddenly thinking Impa has a better chance of getting in Smash. Yeah, she would work well as a Sheik clone, but we already have three semi-clones in the Zelda series. Can you honestly tell me Sakurai won't be worried that a fourth Zelda clone would upset people?

Want - 15%
I have mixed feelings with Impa. I desperately want a new Zelda character, but does it really have to be Impa? Even if she's recurring, we already have Sheik on the roster, and I feel like she does an excellent job of representing the Sheikah tribe and the whole ninja shtick. Couldn't we get a non-human Zelda character like a Zora or a Goron instead?

 

[Erimir]

(Apparently I spent too long writing this)

Most overrated... Well, I think Sakurai's comments about the numbers of newcomers, while perhaps meant to play the expectations game (if you're expecting few newcomers, you will be more surprised/pleased when there are more), does suggest we should be getting fewer than in Smash 4. And the return of cut veterans means that the roster is even larger as a starting point before adding any more newcomers. On the other hand, coming up with the term "echo fighters" to refer to Dark Pit and Lucina, and only adding Daisy would seem very unnecessary. I would assume we'll be getting at least one more echo fighter, but I wouldn't be surprised if we got two or three. But overall, I think it's going to be a lower number (more than 10 including echo fighters would surprise me).

Captain Toad - Making Toad an even more prominent part of Peach (and now Daisy's moveset) is something, but I can't say it enhances Captain Toad's prospects in any way. He still has a decent chance, but I think it's lower.

Bandana Dee - I thought this before E3, and I still think it now, and my reasoning is basically the same as before.

Mimikyu - he's kind of like an imitation Pikachu? Would make sense for an echo fighter except we already have Pichu. If you're adding a Pokemon newcomer, which is likely, it seems more likely they'd pick one that is more distinct from what we already have.

Most underrated...

Tatanga - Now that Daisy is in, we know that Sarasaland is being strongly considered for representation. Speaking of Daisy, doesn't she have any Sarasaland inhabitants to be her vassals? Why is she using a Toad? Anyway, Tatanga is a top tier contender now.

Baby Mario - with Young Link and Pichu being in the game, youth is in. If babies can race on motorcycles and play tennis, surely they can join smash.

Kraid - Now that we know that Ridley is not too big, it's pretty clear that Kraid is not too big either. We all know that we want to see a Ridley vs. Kraid deathmatch, with Mother Brain's top lieutenants duking it out.

(Ok, that was not serious)

Actual most underrated:

Simon Belmont - this is the only unconfirmed part of that leak. We got the full Wii U roster, we got Snake and ICs, and we got Ridley, which a lot of people (including myself) thought would probably not happen. Konami is already involved and adding new characters to the game (Bomberman), so the issue is more whether Sakurai/Nintendo likes the idea than any problem there. Simon Belmont has an abundance of riches for a Smash moveset and would bring some unique abilities to the table. The issue would be more of what doesn't make the cut than in coming up with enough moves, so Sakurai certainly wouldn't object on the grounds that he's difficult to design. (Personally, I would also loooove the addition of Castlevania to the soundtrack, as it has some of the all-time classic chiptunes)

Dark Samus - with the addition of echo fighters and Metroid getting some love, and Samus mysteriously losing her Dark Samus palette and no Dark Samus AT seen yet... Dark Samus as an echo fighter doesn't seem out of the question. We already have one Dark Echo with Dark Pit, so why not?

The thing is that I think most of the ratings are too high, so it's harder to decide for another...

I will say in general, any character that has a good argument for inclusion like Daisy, and would also work at least pretty well as an echo fighter (like Daisy) is going to merit looking at again. I'd also say some fanservice-y requests like K Rool have a stronger argument than in the past because of Ridley.

But I'll go with

Banjo-Kazooie - I don't actually think they're that underrated, they're around where they need to be, but if this game is going to be all about fanservice, B-K is one of the top choices you would make. Working with Microsoft and Rare could be an issue, but we all know if Rare were still Nintendo second-party, they'd have been added in Brawl, and if Rare were an independent third-party, it's very likely they'd be in Smash 4. If they can make it work...

(Geno would have some similar argument, with the benefit that Square is already contributing a character, but Geno is more obscure... and got a higher rating anyway)

 

[AlphaSSB]

King K. Rool

Chance: 30% - Low, I know, but I don't think we're going to be getting many more newcomers, maybe seven tops, including possible clones. I think what King K. Rool has going for him is how well he did in the Ballot, which I'm sure he did well in, and if Sakurai can envision a moveset for him. With how little newcomers we may have left, I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't make it. And if Sakurai was going specifically for a Donkey Kong series newcomer, he'd almost certainly look at Dixie first, whose not only more 'relevant', but is also ripe to be a clone or semi-clone of Diddy.

Want: 50% - Would be nice to see the Donkey Kong series get some more characters, especially a villain with tons of potential behind him. However, I won't be hurt if he doesn't make it, though it'd suck in general to only have two DK characters.


Chrom

Chance: 5% - Even with clones being glorified as 'Echo' characters, I still don't see Chrom happening. Sakurai has already expressed that he thinks there's too many Fire Emblem characters on the roster, and I'm sure he's aware of the backlash over how many there are, too. Even if Chrom could be made into an 'Echo' of Marth or Ike, I still don't see Sakurai going for him. The only way I could see Sakurai adding any more FE characters in general would be if the series had substantial cuts, but everyone is back.

Want: 0% - I've no interest in adding a seventh Fire Emblem character to the roster, especially if his best chance of getting in is as a clone. Even if he were to be a clone of my favorite FE fighter out of the horde we have already, Ike, I'd rather him be unique. Or at least a 50-50 between Marth and Ike.


Ashley

Chance: 20% - Possible, that's for sure, but I don't see it. Many other characters with more popularity behind them, and potentially better ballot scores, that I could see getting in over her. However, her having been an Assist Trophy and having a Mii Costume back in Smash 4 definitely shows that she's somewhat important in Sakurai's eyes. Yet, that didn't stop Takamaru from being an Assist Trophy again, so I doubt things would be any different for Ashley.

Want: 5% - I've no interest in Ashley, and I wouldn't hate to see her make it in, but there's countless other characters I'd like to see before her.


Captain Toad

Chance: 30% - Still confident that Captain Toad has decent chances. He's been in several Mario games now, including Super Mario Odyssey, and is even having his new game ported over onto the Switch with some bonus content. Wouldn't be surprised if he made it in, but at the same time, can still see him being passed up on. And no, I do not think that Toad being more prominent in Peach's and Daisy's movesets negatively impact his chances.

Want: 80% - Although my want for him has diminished a bit over time, watching YoshiandToad 's video has revitalized my want for him a good bit. The moveset made in the linked video is brilliant, and would make for a great addition in Smash Ultimate. Only I'd prefer four Captain Toad alts, with three colors based off the Brigade, and four others based off of Captain Toadette. Then make the Bridage an Assist Trophy or stage element.


Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[TumblrFamous]

Ashley

Chance: 65%. People are always gonna sleep on her. Immense popularity and relevance in Japan, moveset potential, the next clear Warioware rep, and her missing from the AT massacre. However, we know there are a lot more ATs than we've seen, so she may just be back as her previous role.

Want: 100%. Her and Sora are my most wanted right now. Easy.

Captain Toad

Chance: 35%. I'm still hopeful of course, but Toad is being more prominent in Peach/Daisy's movesets. It's hard to say he is as likely as he was before E3.
Want: 100%. I love Captain Toad, he's so cute! I also want Toadette in so I can beat the crap out of her (I have a vendetta against her from Mario Kart).

Chrom

Chance: 18%. I guess he could be an echo fighter of Ike? I just think that his ship has sailed, and there are much better echoes to make, such as Dark Samus or Impa.
Want: 0%. I really don't care for him. Plus I'm of the opinion we really don't need more FE in Smash.

K. Rool

Chance: 65%. If this is the ultimate game, K. Rool should be in, he has immense popularity, and has been one of the most requested for a decade. I don't think relevancy is as big of a deal in this case.
Want: 100%. It's about time he gets in.

 

[andimidna]

Cpt Toad:
I’m just trying to think from a developers standpoint why they’d flesh him out in Peach’s moveset if they knew all the while that they were putting the time into making a full Cpt Toad character. I just can’t see why. They did bother adding Spirit Tracks Link to a stage knowing that Wind Waker Link was a stage, so anyone saying 0% is wrong ofc, but I really am seeing this as throwing a bone to the Toad fans. Especially with the Blue Toad alt, it just seems weird to me. It’s nothing certain of course, but we can’t brush it off
Chance: 15%
We also got Daisy, and Geno is seeming more feasible than ever imo. I just can’t lean towards this anymore
Want: 90%
He’s a good boy

King K Rool:
Ridley is relevant, recent, important, and a fan favorite. Inkling is the iconic new IP with plenty of success and personality. Sakurai changed his mind on Villager, Miis, and now Ridley. To say fan demand is the obvious common denominator here just isn’t true at all. But with few newcomers and marketing it as the ultimate game, I do see the reasoning behind this thinking, I just think it’s being overstated. I am gonna boost him a bit from what I gave him last time.
Chance: 42%
Probably won the ballot tbh
Want: 51%
It’s always fun to beat up the fats bc they’re combo food. I don’t care about the character but he deserves it. His design is a little ugly but that’s fine for a villain imo


Also shout out to the real surprise most underrated that no one is talking about, Alph. Who’s probably the most likely echo if not the alt from the last game when that’s what the echoes started at? I just remembered he existed and wanna nominate him lmao

 

[PsychoJosh]

Overrated:

3. Captain Toad
I think I've said my piece enough on this character. A shrieking diaper-clad mushroom who swings oversized baby's toys and can't even jump? Sounds awful.

2. Steve
He is the most awful looking, amateurishly designed "AAA" character the game industry has ever seen. And that alone is enough to keep him from being in Smash. Sakurai has standards and Steve does not meet them.

1. Ashley
I don't know what you guys are talking about - Ashley is by FAR the most SEVERELY overrated character that Smash has ever seen, only wanted by Japanese audiences because she is kawaii. She has barely anything in the way of moveset potential, sticks out like a sore thumb in her own series because she is the lone unfunny character in a world of funny characters, and in truth, no one wants to see her fight, because no one has any clue how she'd fight, and trying to get well thought-out gameplay ideas out of any one of her supporters is a losing proposition. Like many popular characters, she is wanted simply for appearance sake and nothing else. She is very unlikely to NOT be an assist trophy this time around, and the fact that she hasn't been seen yet as an AT yet means nothing. There are 50+ ATs said to be in this game and the E3 demo only showed a handful of them - Ashley simply wasn't in the demo, and that's all it means. Reading too much into this fact is nothing more than wishful rot. If Waluigi and Takamaru couldn't pull themselves out of the AT role despite their respective popularity and moveset potential what in the world makes you think Ashley has a chance?

Will edit Underrated picks into this post shortly.

Underrated:

3. Dr. Eggman
The main antagonist of the Sonic series, Dr. Eggman is the most important character in the whole series next to Sonic himself, and while there may be more popular picks like Tails or Shadow, Eggman's undeniable importance to the series as the driving catalyst of the plot due to his conflict with Sonic is what makes him the most likely Sonic newcomer in my eyes. He is also the only character who has appeared in every game other than Sonic himself. He's been with Sonic every step of the way.

2. Spyro the Dragon
In my opinion, the most endearing of Sony's former mascots. Spyro in my opinion is a lovable little guy who has decent enough worldwide popularity to bring him into the Smash fold. His games have been successful in both Japan and North America, and he is certainly one of the more iconic mascot characters to come from the PlayStation. With his new remake coming out soon (of which I'm confident there will be Switch and PC ports), I'm hopeful that he finds a way to make it into Smash.

1. Lip (Panel de Pon)
The main character of Nintendo's flagship puzzle game, released in the west as Tetris Attack and later Puzzle League. Lip has been clamoring to get in the game since Melee. Her weapon, the Lip's Stick, has been a mainstay of the Smash games since SSBM, and Sakurai considers Panel de Pon to be a masterpiece. I have not seen the sheer amount of creativity and passion for any other potential Smash character that Lip's fanbase has demonstrated. This character is quite well loved, and I hope Sakurai finally does the right thing by making her playable in Smash.

Nominations: Master Chief X5

 

[Slyshock]

K. Rool

Chance: 55%
Things are generally looking up for the King, he's often packaged together with Ridley due to their similarities but K. Rool also seems to be more universally popular. He's also much less relevant, though, and Nintendo ninjas seem keen on erasing any trace of him from existence. His costume must've been snuck in through the back or something. Dixie's competition, possibly only as an Echo but still a newcomer. All that aside, if you could only pick a small handful of newcomers to get people excited, K. Rool's got to be the right preacher for your choir.

Want: 100%
I didn't vote for him in the ballot without reason. At this point it might be more out of principle than a vested interest in his potential as a fighter.

Impa

Chance: 15%
Even with her pre-BotW appearances back on the table (were they really off the table in the first place?), it'd still be weird digging up a newcomer's representation from an older game. As for the possibility of her being an Echo, would she really be okay as an Echo of Sheik? Impa's probably more known as a swordfighter than a ninja at this point. Gonna flip a coin and say she wasn't the top ballot choice for Zelda newcomer anyhow, and roster space is supposedly tight this time around. All the changes already made to the cast might be considered a sufficient enough bone, as well.

Want: 55%
Don't feel strongly about her one way or another, though I'm sure she'd be decently fun to play regardless of what form she'd take.

Ashley

Chance: 30%
Don't think her lack of deconfirmation changes much, she's far from the only assist trophy not present in the E3 build. It's still a bit suspicious, and her status as a Japanese fan favorite as well as Sakurai's knowledge of said status is a plus, but there's not quite enough new information known to radically alter her score. I'd assume the limited amount of newcomers hurts her more than it helps her, even being beloved in Japan there are quite a few other fan favorites to go around (several of which enjoy worldwide popularity).

Want: 100%
Adding another 5% to want since my minor moveset concerns don't concern me as much anymore. There's more than enough known about her character that giving her a cohesive and representative fighting style wouldn't be impossible.

Captain Toad

Chance: 33%
Perhaps not as likely as before, but not too unlikely either. Toad will never not be relevant, and the Captain doesn't show signs of slowing down himself. The clear frontrunner for a new Mario representative, due to both showing up several times in mainline titles and having his own game; Quite the feat for the relatively small cast the franchise is known for. Not sure how he and Toad in general performed in the ballot, but I'd assume Sakurai didn't change up Peach's animations without cause. Geno's a sticky pickle, but it's hard to say exactly how sticky and pickle.

Want: 50%
Would depend on moveset, I'd love to see an attempt at a jumpless character. Without that, he doesn't strike me as particularly compelling.

Chrom

Chance: 10%
Not convinced that Sakurai would be looking backwards instead of forwards with Fire Emblem characters, Echo or no. Don't think he'd enjoy the reception another derivative FE representative would bring, either. Only shot I see him having is if Sakurai is desperate for more Echos and realizes he has a Chrom model lying around.

Abstaining from Chrom's want.

Nominations: Nikki x5