Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Camc10]

Overrated:
2. Crash Bandicoot
Every single 3rd party character whose only argument is "their game got ported to a Nintendo console" has no chance.

Its not though. Everyone forgets (or likes to forget) That Crash had games on the GBA, including a Spyro crossover, Wrath of Cortex on Gamecube, Crash Boom Bang on DS, Crash of the Titans and Mind Over Mutant on Wii, and Skylanders.

 

[Deleted member]

Its not though. Everyone forgets (or likes to forget) That Crash had games on the GBA, including a Spyro crossover, Wrath of Cortex on Gamecube, Crash Boom Bang on DS, Crash of the Titans and Mind Over Mutant on Wii, and Skylanders.

Don't forget Crash Nitro Kart and Crash Tag Team Racing, both on GameCube, and the former had a GBA version. Also, Titans and MoM both had DS versions alongside the Wii, and the former was on GBA as well.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Its not though. Everyone forgets (or likes to forget) That Crash had games on the GBA, including a Spyro crossover, Wrath of Cortex on Gamecube, Crash Boom Bang on DS, Crash of the Titans and Mind Over Mutant on Wii, and Skylanders.

Don't forget Crash Nitro Kart and Crash Tag Team Racing, both on GameCube, and the former had a GBA version. Also, Titans and MoM both had DS versions alongside the Wii, and the former was on GBA as well.

Almost all of those are multi-plats, the DS one was a shovelware party game, and Skylanders doesn't mean anything because he was just part of an expansion (and a very late expansion at that). The GBA games are the only real connection he has, and those were a long time ago. Plus, it was during a time when Nintendo were literally the only ones doing mobile/portable gaming. If every third party character with a Game Boy title was eligible for Smash Bros, the roster would be 50% third party characters by now.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Almost all of those are multi-plats, the DS one was a shovelware party game, and Skylanders doesn't mean anything because he was just part of an expansion (and a very late expansion at that). The GBA games are the only real connection he has, and those were a long time ago. Plus, it was during a time when Nintendo were literally the only ones doing mobile/portable gaming. If every third party character with a Game Boy title was eligible for Smash Bros, the roster would be 50% third party characters by now.

Maybe here’s a thought he’s eligible due to the fact he is a gaming icon of an era. Third parties do not need some sort of Nintendo connection to get in, the port is just a nice bonus to get more people to try his game out. He is not supported just because he has had games on Nintendo systems, it’s because he is one of the biggest non Nintendo names you could put in the roster.

Full disclaimer I am not that confident for Crash base game, I only Geno and Simon I have some confidence in for base game. But to state that a character as big an icon as Crash ha no chance and his only arguement is that n sane is getting a port is ludicrous.

 

[Camc10]

Almost all of those are multi-plats, the DS one was a shovelware party game, and Skylanders doesn't mean anything because he was just part of an expansion (and a very late expansion at that). The GBA games are the only real connection he has, and those were a long time ago. Plus, it was during a time when Nintendo were literally the only ones doing mobile/portable gaming. If every third party character with a Game Boy title was eligible for Smash Bros, the roster would be 50% third party characters by now.

I mean, Cloud got in, and his most iconic appearance on Nintendo was in Kingdom Hearts on GBA.

 

[Runic_SSB]

TCT~Phantom By that logic, a League of Legends character could easily get in. It's probably the biggest game of all time, having more regular players than even Minecraft. Would you really give Teemo the same rating you gave Crash?

I mean, Cloud got in, and his most iconic appearance on Nintendo was in Kingdom Hearts on GBA.

CLOUD IS REPRESENTING THE ENTIRETY OF FINAL FANTASY.

I am so tired of having to say this all the ****ing time. See, this is why I didn't want him; because I knew people would use him as an argument for why literally any random guy can be in Smash. JFC, now I remember why I keep leaving this place...

 

[Opossum]

TCT~Phantom By that logic, a League of Legends character could easily get in. It's probably the biggest game of all time, having more regular players than even Minecraft. Would you really give Teemo the same rating you gave Crash?


CLOUD IS REPRESENTING THE ENTIRETY OF FINAL FANTASY.

I am so tired of having to say this all the ****ing time. See, this is why I didn't want him; because I knew people would use him as an argument for why literally any random guy can be in Smash. JFC, now I remember why I keep leaving this place...

I think the fact that you're equating Crash Bandicoot with "any random guy" shows you don't really know what you're talking about.

 

[Runic_SSB]

I think the fact that you're equating Crash Bandicoot with "any random guy" shows you don't really know what you're talking about.

Taking exaggeration at face value is the absolute dumbest arguing tactic. Also, I wasn't just talking about Crash, people are using Cloud to defend literally everything.

 

[harukaamami]

Overrated:

1. Decidueye: There is no "starter type trio" to complete with Charizard being part of the Pokémon Trainer again; whatever pattern he had going on for him got completely shot down. Besides, we already have NINE Pokémon in the roster.
2. Rex and Pyra: Seems like newer characters might have a bunch of hurdles going against them; Pyra's VA might have been honest when she said she wasn't called to record any new lines.
3. Celica: Yeah, with limited newcomers it's very likely that we're not getting another FE character. She really wouldn't work as a Robin Dash/Echo, either.

Underrated:

1. Shadow: The introduction of Dash/Echo characters greatly increases his odds; him not appearing as an AT at all in any footage is weird; he is incredibly popular; using Chaos Control as his Final Smash would be all representation his powers would need.
2. Ashley: She hasn't been seen as an AT despite some strong contenders for AT promotion, such as Midna or Takamaru, being immediately "deconfirmed"; Wario Ware Gold development/planning began in 2015; her popularity has remained strong through the years, specially; an important bit nobody has considered: Badge Arcade's Arcade Bunny was considered important enough turned into an Assist Trophy, Ashley had more badges than anyone else by the time we stopped getting new badges and Arcade Bunny himself was as an Ashley fanboy in the original Japanese version.
3. Dark Samus: Pretty much the same as Shadow, although she isn't nearly as popular. She has two things going for her that he doesn't, however: Samus' Dark Samus alt color got removed and she is a first party character.

 

[ShinyRegice]

Most overrated one: Rayman
Don't get me wrong, I would love to see Rayman playable, but right now I don't really see a good reason to be optimistic about his chances. There are so many third-parties competing for a slot, and we haven't see any third-party newcomer yet. What evidence there is than Rayman is particularly more likely than others? Personally I'm not really convinced there's any, besides the Smash 4 trophy at most, which I don't believe is enough. With Sakurai telling us to not expect a huge number of new characters, I think it's reasonable to not expect a big number of new third-parties either; it's often speculated that we might get no more than five or six currently unrevealed newcomers, although we might be optimistic and expect half of them to be third-parties if we want to push it.

Most overrated two: Decidueye
I still believe that getting a generation 7 Pokémon as a newcomer is something likely, especially now since we've seen Poké Ball summons from that generation. However with Ash's Rowlet likely to not evolve in the anime and Charizard's return as part of Pokémon Trainer's team making the "starter trio" point pretty moot, some of the arguments on its favor don't hold as much weight as we might have believed some time ago; and don't forget Pokkén is the game with Braixen over Greninja... That said potential-wise Decidueye is still the most unique fully evolved generation 7 starter and an overall theming and appearance that makes it look like Smash material, so still deserves a pretty good score imo, just not to the extent to which we've rated it last time. I think its score should be more similar to that of other generation 7 Pokémon that are seen as decently likely and which I think represent legit competition (I'm not fully convinced about Lycanroc being as likely as Decidueye and Mimikyu, but I think it still makes sense as serious candidate for a generation 7 representative, so I don't really have a problem with its score in the results table being higher than mine). Decidueye's best shot imo consists of it being seen as a more inspiring choice for a moveset than its competition.

Most overrated three: Lucas from The Wizard
Yeah I know he's our second least likely rated character overall, but he's obscure and not a video game character, the prospect that anyone ever gave him even something as low as 0.01% is downright embarrassing, in other words nothing but a flat zero is acceptable for such a character idea. I know technically anything is possible, but technically you can't absolutely disprove that you're not living in a dream where Santa Claus can appear at any moment to give you thousands of spoons made of solid gold.

Honorable mention to the Yarne & Owain tag team who should have got a final score of a flat zero too. Besides, if we're getting any Fire Emblem Awakening character, I think it's gonna be:

Most underrated: Chrom
Yeah I know it feels crazy to consider Chrom "underrated" in a post-Robin world and for what I remember I'm pretty sure I gave him a much lower score than his final score, but with echo fighters I now think he stands a legitimate chance; although only as an echo fighter, as a fully unique character I think we can all agree that his chances are practically null. Robin's Final Smash has not been seen anywhere yet (and "they didn't show it because they simply didn't change it" is not a valid argument because the final Smash of Yoshi, Diddy Kong and Lucario must have changed because of the new Final Smash philosophy but we haven't seen them yet either), and if we get more echo fighters I think Chrom is one of the most likely candidates: Ike's moveset for the most part suits him pretty well, he would be a less powerful but faster version, and the "I suppose I'll get my chance another day" line might finally be true. The Eruption, which admittedly doesn't suit Chrom very well, might be replaced with a similar move that emits a dazzling flash rather than flames, and his Final Smash would involve the Exalted Falchion. On the other hand, Robin's Final Smash could easily be replaced with a legendary tome like Mjölnir, not to mention with every character getting a close-up on their faces when doing a Final Smash, the one ported from Awakening with Chrom becomes redundant. To summary, I believe Chrom is one of the most likely candidates for a new echo fighter if we get more of them, and needs to be rerated as a result.

Abstaining from mentioning any other underrated character; with new character slots being apparently limited, I think we need to be cautious and avoid giving any character a really high score without strong evidence that they have a really stronger chance than most.

 

[Kitty-chan]

Underrated

1. Dark Samus: Samus doesn't have the Dark Samus alt anymore, and nyo AT had her in it nya! To me, I think she's very very likely to be Samus's echo character nyao!

2. Ashley: Wasn't seen in a AT nya. Whether this just means she isn't in the game as one yet, or will become playable can't be nyown by anyone who isn't Sakurai nya. However I think her chances has definitely increased nya!

3. King K. Rool: My faith that the king will make his glorious entrance into smash has nearly doubled with Ridley coming into smash nya! The time has come nya!!


Overrated: (This was hard for me to pick)

1. Decidueye: Decidueye has competition with two other pokemon of the same gen, and the chances of getting a nyu pokemon in smash nyao seems bleak nya.

2. Captain Toad: The regular toads becoming more active in Peach's and nyao Daisy's moveset kind of pushes his chances back a bit nya. I don't think he's impossible nyao, because he is a unique toad nya... but he is certainly less likely nyao, in my eyes nya~


And that's all I have nya~

 

[Organization XIII]

TCT~Phantom
CLOUD IS REPRESENTING THE ENTIRETY OF FINAL FANTASY.

I am so tired of having to say this all the ****ing time. See, this is why I didn't want him; because I knew people would use him as an argument for why literally any random guy can be in Smash. JFC, now I remember why I keep leaving this place...

No Cloud is in for his namesake alone. 3rd parties are there purely for star power. Megaman isn't repping his series he's in because he's freaking Megaman. Sonic isn't in because of the Sonic games he's in because he's Sonic. Cloud isn't in because he's an FF character he's in because he's Cloud.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Organization XIII

Sakurai: "Final Fantasy is one of the few uniquely Japanese game series revered by players around the world. I think fans across the globe have hoped a character from one of those series would appear in Smash, so it was only a matter of time. [...] And within the FF franchise, Cloud is without question the most popular choice."

 

[Organization XIII]

Organization XIII

Sakurai: At the same time, I think it’s only natural to prioritize the character who enjoys worldwide popularity.
From the exact same interview

 

[Runic_SSB]

Sakurai: At the same time, I think it’s only natural to prioritize the character who enjoys worldwide popularity.
From the exact same interview

That was in response to the question of "why not someone from a Nintendo FF?" Cloud is still representing all of Final Fantasy.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Please stay on topic. While I love debate this discussion on cloud is straying away.

 

[Organization XIII]

That was in response to the question of "why not someone from a Nintendo FF?" Cloud is still representing all of Final Fantasy.

He's still in due to name alone not repping FF

 

[NeonBurrito]

I'm confused as to why you have King K Rool as overrated, citing that it's unlikely that we'd get 2 DK newcomers, even if one is an echo fighter, but you have Dark Samus as an underrated character, even though that would result in the exact same situation for Metroid.

I think it has to do with the fact that we already have Ridley confirmed to be in the game. Metroid just needs to get a clone to hit the "two newcomer mark", whereas Donkey Kong needs to get the clone AND the newcomer in order to hit aforementioned "mark". K. Rool also doesn't really have the mass support / popularity, history in Smash, and general relevancy to his franchise like Ridley has. That's just what I feel. If it seems a little nonsensical, I can get that.

Ok but that part only talks about their facial expression not the designs of Rex and Pyra where is the timeline for those?

I hate this evidence because it’s a super common misunderstanding. The finalalized aspects were facial animations, which I doubt would affect smash. If anything it means they were design wise finished before that point as the facial animations are done after characters are colored and outlined characters. Imo it puts them early on that timeline. Earlier than anything else.

Say what you will if they are too new or that Elma is more likely, but their designs at least were definately done before that.

Very fair point! We don't really have a whole ton to go off of with them, some I'm just using that as some estimates. For all we know, Rex and Pyra may have had their designs finalized in 2015. I still think they're a bit too recent to get into Smash, but thanks for pointing that out.

 

[RouffWestie]

Underrated
#3 Simon Belmont
I'm not saying I know 100% he'll be in, nor that I have the best judgment for what characters to expect (Takamaru was deconfirmed and I was convinced he was a lock,) but one thing I am fully convinced of is that people overthink how much the IP-holding company effects its character's chances in Smash. People really seemed to think, "Konami," was a good enough reason a character they own wouldn't be in Smash. Yet now Snake is returning and Bomberman is an AT; so much for Konami being some sort of impossible company to work with. I remember in the past RTC for Simon, so many low scores were being thrown out despite the fact that he fits the bill for a newcomer very well. There's a single thing I personally felt hurt his chances:

Simon's not a safe bet until Castlevania is back on the home console market; it'd take the announcement of a new standalone Castlevania game/reboot/HD remake to convince me he's more likely.

This is the only part where the leak actually influences my chance, because a new compilation is seemingly on it's way to home consoles.

#2 Sora
Again, people overthink how much the IP-holding company effects its character's chances in Smash. Disney Infinity keeps being brought up as an example of Disney being a pain to work with, but Disney Infinity is not a good comparison for Super Smash Bros. They're two completely different beasts and Disney would obviously approach them as such when considering making Sora playable in either one.

#1 Ashley
I'm guilty of highly doubting Ashley previously. I admit now that her popularity could have a big impact on her chances, now that her AT still hasn't been seen and we've got a roster that seems to be focused on fanservice over wacky new mechanics.
----------
Overrated
There's only 2 I feel people overestimate.

#2 Decidueye
“I think he could be unique so Sakurai must think so too.”
This argument fails to convince me that he's one of the 3 most likely newcomers. It's practically the only one I've heard. Completing the starter-trio was also a common argument, but that's not accurate anymore.

#1 Elma
I doubt we'll get a Xenoblade X character unless it gets ported to the Switch. I've heard very little arguments outside of, “Xenoblade X existed at an ideal time,” and I don't think that's enough when dozens of other 3DS and Wii U games meet that merit too. It's already a niche franchise and with plenty of opportunities to represent characters through other special appearances, I don't think she's immediately going to be considered to as playable.

 

[Quetzal77]

Overrated
Mimikyu: I'm starting to doubt there will be a Pokemon newcomer since Gen 1 is already way overrepresented and a Gen 1 remake is the next game, and Gen 8 is still too far away to consider. From Gen 7, if they do add someone in, everywhere outside this forum pretty much is betting on Decidueye.

Crash: the game hasn't released on Switch yet, there's no indication of Activision getting buddied up with Nintendo, and it's confirmed there's less newcomers. With Simon being strongly rumoured it's probably just going to be him. (I don't include Rayman here because Ubisoft is showing a lot of support for Nintendo, so IF there's someone besides Simon I could see it being him).

Bandana Dee: With there being few newcomers left to reveal, I imagine it'll only be huge icons or recent popular characters. Bandana Dee doesn't strike me as someone they'd add at this point and unfortunately, unlike Daisy, he can't get in as an echo either.

Underrated:
Simon Belmont: in my mind he's practically guaranteed, it's just a matter of when he'll be confirmed. Probably closer to the release date.

Isabelle: I think she's getting in as a Villager echo. She's hugely popular and makes too much sense.

Impa: I think she should be a bit higher now that we know they're doing echo characters upfront. I've seen speculation that she could be a Sheik echo or an Ike echo if they go with her Warriors style.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Most overrated
Unfortunately I’m going to be completely cliche and pick the same characters everyone else is picking and for the same reasons.

1st. Decidueye: Ivysaur killed the starter trio theory. Decidueye has also recieved very little promotion from Nintendo compared to Mimikyu and Lycanroc.

2nd. Rex and Pyra: Their game may have debuted too late for the base roster.

3rd. Captain Toad: Toad’s increases involvement in Peach/Daisy’s move pool is likely a strike against him. Also with Daisy’s inclusion we now have 8 Mario Reps as well as 12 in the greater Mario universe. The fact that Geno and Paper Mario are still viable candidates doesn’t help his chances at all.

Most underrated

I’ll vote for Simon Belmont because of a certain leak. Aside from him, I don’t really think any character we’ve rated is underrated. I actually feel that most of our ratings are little too high especially given the implications that there will be a lot less newcomers this time around.

 

[VexTheHex]

With much to discuss, I do ponder if 3-5 would be good to rate again for each category instead of just 2.

OVERRATED
1. Decidueye - Never supported the idea he was a lock when he is both less popular and promoted than other Pokemon. The Grass starter stance loss it's ground with the confirmation of Ivysaur.
2. Rex & Pyra - It's possible, but with a small increase to our roster... I'm thinking they wouldn't be banking on characters/games being successful.
3. Captain Toad - This one was fine before E3. But with Toad getting upgraded in Peach's moves... I think it's curtains for him. But I don't think he was overrated at the time we voted on him.

UNDERRATED
1. Ashley - Huge Japan popularity. She is also missing in ATs action so far.
2. Simon Belmont - Snake is back and Bomberman is out. Simon is back in the picture basically.
3. Chrom - Maybe there was more to his another day line? I think he isn't the most likely, but he got butchered on his day more so than he should of.

@ TCT~Phantom - Takamaru, Krystal, Tom Nook, and Midna are missing Deconfirmed. Also Waluigi just has "De"

 

[TCT~Phantom]

With much to discuss, I do ponder if 3-5 would be good to rate again for each category instead of just 2.

OVERRATED
1. Decidueye - Never supported the idea he was a lock when he is both less popular and promoted than other Pokemon. The Grass starter stance loss it's ground with the confirmation of Ivysaur.
2. Rex & Pyra - It's possible, but with a small increase to our roster... I'm thinking they wouldn't be banking on characters/games being successful.
3. Captain Toad - This one was fine before E3. But with Toad getting upgraded in Peach's moves... I think it's curtains for him. But I don't think he was overrated at the time we voted on him.

UNDERRATED
1. Ashley - Huge Japan popularity. She is also missing in ATs action so far.
2. Simon Belmont - Snake is back and Bomberman is out. Simon is back in the picture basically.
3. Chrom - Maybe there was more to his another day line? I think he isn't the most likely, but he got butchered on his day more so than he should of.

@ TCT~Phantom - Takamaru, Krystal, Tom Nook, and Midna are missing Deconfirmed. Also Waluigi just has "De"

I know, the front page is getting a makeover don’t worry.

 

[andimidna]

Went through and compiled my new ratings of each characters to see how they held up with the current ratings here and got pretty much what I expected

Overrated:

1. Decidueye (by around 41%)
There’s not much reason to expect a Pokémon newcomer pre-DLC anymore. Even if you still think he’s the front runner of this generation, which I think is reasonable as he was clearly the most requested and still v interesting. He hasn’t been marketed like Lucario or Greninja, and seems like he’ll more likely fall into the same category as Zoroark: who would’ve been picked for a generation that won’t have a character. I think Mimikyu and Lycanroc fall considerably as well. With the next gen not coming for awhile, as long as requests stay high, I don’t think DLC is out of the question.

2. Cpt Toad (by about 36%)
I wouldn’t have said this before E3. I think he was a strong contender, but I can’t get past having him shine more in Peach’s moveset and giving Daisy blue Toad. I just can’t imagine fleshing that out more of you’re gonna add Cpt Toad as a separate character.

3. Elma (by about 35%)
With few newcomers, I don’t see this as high priority. I also can’t imagine being completely left in the dark about XC2. The further we move from the game, the more XCX is established as what’s current

HMs:
Rex & Pyra (~34%): I see them as being dlc, likely starting to be developed late in the process and getting pushed off as not very high priorities. I do see them being in the game eventually though, unlike Elma.
Celica (~31%): In the same boat as Elma and Decidueye in terms of getting passed by. Especially similar to Decidueye when you consider all the vets of the series returning.
Dixie Kong (~30%): I don’t think she was hurt. I just think people rate characters too high in general, as if there’s gonna be more newcomers than there actually will be.
Bandana Dee (~26%): See: Dixie Kong

Underrated:
I usually rate on the lower end, so there’s not many characters I can call underrated. There’s only two significant picks
1. Simon Belmont (~35%)
Working with Konami is confirmed. Snake reveal out of the way. Bomberman in the game but not a character. Iconic and popular. This doesn’t even need a potential leak to be reconsidered
2. Dark Samus (~25%)
Everything has aligned for this echo character. I always felt Ridley needed to get in first: check. Don’t show the assist: check. Even the color swap is gone/significantly altered, which wasn’t even necessary to add Dark Samus, but it happened. Pretty sure it was one of her most popular swaps if not the most popular based on what few Samuses I’ve seen. I’m not really counting on any echo characters but Dark Samus. In fact, I’m gonna say Samus, Zero Suit, Ridley, and Dark Samus will all be in the base game and Sylux will still be DLC >: )
3. Excitebiker (~8%)
Rip Takamaru

HMs:
Banjo & Kazooie (~7%)
We’ve seen more willingness to work with companies that wouldn’t be expected, and more of what fans want. Although, keep in mind that Ridley is also relevant and important to a major Nintendo franchise that was held back by specific circumstances. I’m not gonna pretend this means the top 5 of the ballot results are now locks. They get a small bump along with K Rool, Geno, and some others...
Isaac (~7%): I still can’t get over how fishy their situation is. Some of the most irrelevant, obscure Nintendo series get at least some representation. Why take away from a series where a significant group of people were asking for *more*? I still can’t help but feel like the AT was removed jic they wanted to add him as DLC, but other options took priority. So he was pretty low on that priority list, but now all the veterans are out of the way, and they’re clearly listening to requests to some extent.
Chrom (~7%):
Nothing crazy. Not everyone that can be an echo character will become one, so don’t go over the top on bumping potential clones. However, it helps. Being upfront about them and reducing the negative stigma around them is a good thing. It als makes sense they’d pad the roster a little given there wasn’t as much time spent on newcomers, which he basically confirmed. Even though Marth has echoes and Awakening isn’t new, he was a little shafted by smash 4 lmao. Maybe he’ll get his chance

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

Overrated

decidueye: I knew this was overrated from the beginning lycanroc is more advertised than this starter of there's a gen 7 newcomer got to be him and I think the chance went from 70% all the way down to 10% all because ivysaur is back

Rex & pyra : I was skeptical when I spotted they were started on after the roster was finalized

Toad : wouldn't have ben here but that was until toad is now involved of moves of peach/daisy And not just a punching bag/bullet catcher

Underrated

Dark Samus: the echo thing may have changed her percentage of playable from 0.1% pretty much to 90% because
1 no assist trophy spotting
2 the alt was removed from samus
3 and funny enough what was the name of metroid prime 2 oh yea "echos"

Ashley: I found the wario thing started in 2015 that's one year before the roster was finalized and like with dark Samus no trophy spotting

King k rool: Ridley is the biggest reason the door opened wider for him and quite a few other character Ridley just proves even if sakurai saids it's impossible I can still happen but the bigger thing is based off what she in this smash bros game fan focused requests for this one in the west Ridley is the most wanted in the middle (Europe) it was bayonetta and the East it's none other than king k rool the Japan wants him more than us. Finally if relevance is a factor tell that to quite a few of the retro reps they haven't had a ga,e before smash bros even existe.

 

[Mario123311]

MOST OVERRATED
Banjo:
As long as he's in Microsoft's hands, It's not happening. People have still tried to tell me otherwise because "B-BUT PHIL SPENCER SAID" Well, IF THAT WERE THE CASE - He would have won the Smash ballot. But he didn't.
Sora:
People really like to ignore the fact Disney holds the rights to this character and their mascots play a crucial role in KH itself. You can't have KH without Disney characters.
Geno:
We have enough Mario characters.

MOST UNDERRATED
Doomguy:
Probably the one M rated character who I think deserves to be in Smash the most in comparison to Bayonetta and Solid Snake. (No offense)
Starfy:
Why is this lil' guy still an assist trophy? He has plenty of moves that would make for a great moveset.


...I just realized I can only choose from the current list.

 

[Organization XIII]

MOST OVERRATED
Banjo:
As long as he's in Microsoft's hands, It's not happening. People have still tried to tell me otherwise because "B-BUT PHIL SPENCER SAID"

As long as Nintendo still has a Microsft owned game on their consoles that point is still ridiculous to me but feel free to keep thinking that mate

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Rex & pyra : I was skeptical when I spotted they were started on after the roster was finalized.

Once again, that was facial animations. Their designs were finalized earlier.

MOST OVERRATED
Banjo:
As long as he's in Microsoft's hands, It's not happening. People have still tried to tell me otherwise because "B-BUT PHIL SPENCER SAID"
Sora:
People really like to ignore the fact Disney holds the rights to this character and their mascots play a crucial role in KH itself. You can't have KH without Disney characters.
Lloyd Irving:
Generic design, Represents a series that Namco has milked to hell and back. Yeah, I have a lot to say about him once the day comes.

MOST UNDERRATED
Doomguy:
Probably the one M rated character who I think deserves to be in Smash the most in comparison to Bayonetta and Solid Snake. (No offense)
Starfy:
Why is this lil' guy still an assist trophy? He has plenty of moves that would make for a great moveset.
Pitfall Harry:
The granddaddy of platformers who nobody has brought up in this thread at all... Except me just now.

Plenty of these characters we had not rated. Please only discuss characters we have rated or votes won’t be counted.

 

[Wyoming]

Overrated:

Decidueye (guilty of this)
Rex & Pyra (guilty of this)
Takamaru (guilty of this)

We essentially assumed all of these due to the past game's development cycle. Takamaru was treated as a near guarantee despite not having much of note outside of Sakurai's comment and one Nintendo Land minigame.

Rex seems likely as DLC more than base roster.

Decidueye got an early boost of likelihood due to people not really seeing Mimikyu and Lycanroc as options.

I think Crash was overrated too. He struck me more as a DLC candidate than base roster, but his score isn't that crazy.

Underrated:

Daisy (guilty of this) - we all assumed Waluigi's online popularity would make him the first choice. It's clear the sports moveset has not caught Sakurai's attention at all as Daisy is a clone anyway. We also underestimated her popularity on a global scale.

Can't say Ridley was underrated when we rated him. He was rejected so many times, it would need a brave soul to give him a decent chance.

Other than that, not quite sure yet. Simon Belmont is riding on a rumour, and K. Rool/Bandana Dee/Dixie could still miss out. I think perhaps Chrom was tossed aside too abruptly but that's in hindsight due to echo fighters being promoted now.

 

[Starbound]

Most Overrated: Elma > Mimikyu > Rayman > Crash

Elma just doesn't seem like a contender with Rex around, and XB2 shared dev time with SSBU. Elma also wasn't popular with the ballot so she's kind of in this no-man's land.

A new Pokemon character seems unlikely with 3 returning veterans now here, but any new one from Alola would need some overall significance. Decidueye is a starter and Lycanroc was big with USUM; Mimikyu is just kind of there.

Rayman and Crash are being grouped together as they're more on Bomberman's tier of relevance as a third party. The bar for entry as a third party is still really high (Snake and Bayo only got in for popularity, and their popularity is on a whole new level compared to Rayman/Crash).

Most Underrated: Funky Kong > Chrom > Skull Kid > Dark Samus

Funky, Chrom and Dark Samus are much more likely due to Echo fighters being more prominent (I highly doubt we're just getting 3).

Skull Kid is the main frontrunner for a Zelda newcomer as he's consistently the most popular one (and his AT isn't here...). If popularity matters as much as we think, he's more likely than Impa.

 

[Cosmic77]

Most Overrated

Decidueye - What can I say that hasn't already been said? Ivysaur is in the game, it has virtually no promotion, and the odds of us even getting a Pokémon newcomer have decreased.

Captain Toad - I suppose it's not too late for this guy, but I'm just not seeing it happen now. Toad being more involved with Peach and Daisy feels like Sakurai trying to compromise with fans.

Waluigi - I know it hurts, but it's true. This guy was overrated as heck, and everyone completely brushed off Daisy's chances. Sakurai didn't even bother to softly disconfirm him like he did in Smash 4.

Most Underrated

Daisy - I never got the chance to rate her when it was her day, but her chance scores were a joke. In what universe should Waluigi be almost twenty points higher than her? Honestly, Daisy got a lot of unwarranted hate, and I feel like that had a largely negative impact on her scores.

Lycanroc/Mimikyu - putting these two together because a lot of people completely overlooked them because of Decidueye. E3 has come and gone, and neither has been seen as a Pokeball Pokémon. Things are looking much better for them.

Mipha (Champions) - a totally biased opinion on my part, but everything that was said about these guys has been wrong so far. They weren't part of Zelda's moveset, they weren't part of the new BotW stage, and they likely won't all be an individual Assist Trophy now that we know more than 30 of the 50-59 Assist Trophies. Some of their competition has already been deconfirmed, and if Skull Kid and Tingle reprise their roles as an Assist Trophy (or in Tingle's case, possibly a stage hazard for Great Bay), then it all comes down to Impa, Toon Zelda, and the Champs IMO.

 

[Kotor]

Most Overrated

1. Decidueye - I felt something was off about Decidueye's chances when he became the default suggested Gen VII newcomer. To see people say Decidueye is the most popular Gen VII Pokemon made me think, "Isn't Rowlet way more popular than Decidueye?" It was like people made up rules for why Decidueye had to get in.

• "It's a grass starter that will complete the starter trio."
  • A gimmick that was only a thing starting in Brawl. There was no desire to include a grass starter in Smash 4, and the return of Trainer in Ultimate means this nonexistent quota has been fulfilled.
• "It's the most popular Gen VII Pokemon"
  • Eh... not quite. The starter line, I would agree with, but Decidueye on it's own not so much. Rowlet eclipses Decidueye in popularity. Besides Rowlet, the breakout Alolan Pokemon were Mimikyu & Lycanroc (as of this writing, neither have been disconfirmed). Looking at the anime, despite Ash owning a Rowlet, it appears to be the comedy relief of the show (someone who watches the anime would have to clarify this sleepy bird's role). Ash also owns a Litten which has evolved into Torracat. Going by the starter final evo leak, there's a chance it could evolve into Incineroar meaning that's another Pokemon Decidueye would have to compete with.
• "Decidueye is in Pokken"
  • Irrelevant. Neither game is obligated to mirror the same playable Pokemon.

2. Waluigi - Despite his chances here listed as only 34.21%, the salt that came out of his Assist Trophy reveal was just pathetic. RIDLEY IS IN FOR CHRIST SAKE, and yet people still found a way to be upset about the roster. Memes were all he had going for him, but I'm not sure if Waluigi is even taken seriously by Sakurai. Is Japan crazy about the guy? I would use Niko Bellic's joke line here, but this is a Christian website so I'll just say Waluigi is nothing but a complete joke. A joke. Ah ha ha ha ha.

3. Elma - Well.... in a way, both Elma, and Rex & Pyra kinda have recency bias. Rex & Pyra from being in the newest Xenoblade game that may have come too late to be in the base roster, and Elma whose timing supposedly fits with Sakurai's project plan. We're not 100% sure when the project plan was actually created & finalized. I'm throwing in Elma because of that whole "Sakurai buying a mech for its gun" which a lot of people defaulted to Elma. We did have Custom Robo as an Assist Trophy in Brawl. I'm not saying Sakurai bought the mech for Custom Robo. Just consider the possible alternatives. It may not necessarily be for a newcomer. It could've been for an Assist Trophy character, a veteran getting a revamped final smash, or maybe the gun itself is being added as an item and it just so happened to be on a mech. Also, there's a member of Monolith (don't remember if it's the same guy saying this) expressing interest in porting Xenoblade X to the Switch, and an interest in making Xenoblade X-2. I've seen it used in Elma's favor, but neither have been announced. While Monolith is working on something, it doesn't appear to be X.

Most Underrated

1. Sora - I too dismissed Sora because of Disney. However, thanks to HMK who clarified who owns Sora (tl:dw Disney owns Sora, but they need Nomura's blessings to use Sora in anything), Snake's return despite many people dismissing his chances of coming back because of the fiasco between Kojima and Konami (the issue I'm seeing is Kojima went overbudget with MGSV and that annoyed Konami), and Sakurai changing his mind on Ridley, I say bring in Sora! He's basically the next "impossible" character to get into Smash now.

2. Ashley - Largely slept upon by a lot of people. I guess Waluigi was the desired Wario newcomer because he's Wario's "partner" despite never appearing in the Wario Land or Warioware games. I don't believe her assist trophy was spotted yet. Either she was simply not added to the E3 demo, or she got the Little Mac treatment and was promoted. Then again, with the main theme of Ultimate being "Everyone is here," what if that also applies to Assist Trophies? After all, there's only a few old stages left that aren't in Ultimate.

3. Lycanroc - Dismissed for not being Decidueye. I personally want Incineroar, but with the push Lycanroc has received from both the games (version exclusive evolutions, and the Dusk form in the Ultra games), and in the anime (an ace in Ash's team, and Ash specifically owning a Dusk Lycanroc), maybe it was the rock doggo all along. Similar thing with Ashley in that neither the Lycanroc forms or Rockruff were spotted at the E3 demo. Even if Rockruff is a summonable Pokemon, should we dismiss Lycanroc altogether? We have both Pikachu and Pichu, two Pokemon from the same evolution line in Ultimate.

 

[Gerrothorax]

Underrated:
3. Dark Samus
Her assist trophy is notably absent and she'd be an easy echo character of Samus. We already have three links so a third samus isn't too far fetched.

2. Ashley
Extremely popular in Japan and she's the most notable character who's assist trophy hasn't been shown.

1. Simon Belmont
The Verge leak has been right so far and even without it Simon is the only viable Konami character now that Bomber-man has been turned into an assist trophy.

Overrated:
1. Decidueye
The only character that I feel is actually overrated. We already have quite a lot of pokemon characters already and Decidueye lacks a presence in the anime unlike fellow S&M pokemon like Lyncanroc and Mimikyu.

 

[Delzethin]

First off, while expecting fewer newcomers for the base release than usual is reasonable, I think we might be over-emphasizing Sakurai's statement on that. He said it with Smash 4 as well, yet it had roughly the same amount of newcomers as its predecessors. While bringing the veterans back undoubtedly took up some dev time, that fact that Ultimate doesn't have two versions like Smash 4, doesn't have a resource-heavy story mode like Brawl, and doesn't have a rushed dev cycle like Melee means we may be underestimating how much new content there could still be.

Personally, I'm running off thinking we'll see 8 newcomers at release, counting Inkling and Ridley, as well as a few more echo fighters since they take a fraction of effort to make in comparison. What that in mind:


Most Overrated

1. Decidueye
Well, easy come, easy go. While the whole "complete the starter trio" quota-filling thing isn't Sakurai's M.O., Decidueye's biggest strength was the lack of characters with plant-based powers on the roster. Ivysaur's return puts a huge dent in that upside, and while being the second plant-bender wouldn't be an instant deal breaker and there're still a few distinct things here--unusual avian build, archery, a few ghost powers--Decidueye probably isn't the most likely newcomer from its series anymore, much less the second most likely of anyone.

2. Captain Toad
Bittersweet, this one is. It's nice to see Toad take a more active role as Peach's bodyguard and be the one doing her pummel and throws, but in exchange, it makes it less likely that this particular Toad got chosen to be a standalone fighter. While nothing's for certain yet, it does seem like enough to bump him out of the Top 10 for now.

3. Crash Bandicoot
We jumped the gun with this one. While relevance is important and all, a lot of speculators have a habit of looking too recently without considering what'd have been known when the roster was chosen. Crash may be in the spotlight again, but odds are, the idea of a Switch version of N. Sane Trilogy wasn't even a blip on the radar yet back in Summer 2016. I think he's on the table once DLC development starts (since you know it'll happen), but it's just too early for him to spin his way onto the base roster.

Honorable Mentions: Rex & Pyra seem a little shaky with how we aren't 100% sure if Xenoblade 2 was even looked at--I do think they're more likely than Elma and I think we'll definitely get someone from Xenoblade, but the remaining questions are enough that I don't think the top spot is theirs (think I'd give it to Bandana Dee for now). I'm also a little iffier on Celica than before, especially since the option to sneak in as an echo probably isn't there due to how distinct her swordplay and magic both are.


Most Underrated

1. Simon Belmont
What a horrible night to be kept waiting. Being part of a so-far credible leak has put the vampire killer on everyone's radars, and for understandable reasons. Yet interestingly enough, even if the leak does end up partially false, Simon still has a substantial chance now anyway with Konami involved in Smash again, Snake returning, and Simon's closest competition Bomberman relegated to Assist Trophy.

2. Lycanroc
What? Bias aside, while Decidueye took a hit from Ivysaur's return, Lycanroc was a benefactor. Being built around an element that is still completely absent from Smash is a major point of uniqueness, on top of still being one of Gen 7's biggest standouts and having a ton of side roles, merchandise on par with the starters recently, and a role as the ace of Ash's team in the anime like Greninja before it, something that's only been cemented further in the time since its last rating...and since the anime must be planned out well in advance, the groundwork for this would've been something Sakurai was made aware of. We may have had three veteran 'mons return, but there's still plenty reason to bring in a newcomer from the current generation if they're enough of a standout, and this one in particular hasn't skipped a beat. In fact, the reveal of Echo Fighters might be another point in Lycanroc's favor due to potentially being a way to incorporate more forms if Sakurai felt it was an interesting option!

3. Geno
Gotta admit, a big part of this one is instinct. The way Ultimate has been presented, as this culmination of Smash built to combine the old and new and appeal to a wide-reaching audience...it makes me wonder. Third parties tend to follow different guidelines than first party newcomers, and so Geno's lack of relevance may not be a problem with how well recognized he still is after all these years. Combined with the fact that Sakurai considered him for Brawl and has had an eye on him all this time...and this may well be his chance.

Honorable Mentions: A whole bunch of Echo Fighters. While we don't know the exact criteria the Smash devs are looking at, this does open the door for a lot of characters to get in as clones who wouldn't have had a shot otherwise. I think the most notable right now are Chrom and Dark Samus, as not only have they not appeared in their NPC roles, the alternate palettes for Ike and Samus themed after them are both missing for no apparent reason. This could also open the door for the likes of Funky Kong, Dry Bowser, Alm (Roy echo with wind in place of fire), Shadow, and Ken. It even opens alternate paths for Dixie Kong and Isabelle if they aren't able to make it as standalone fighters, though I'm sure their fans would prefer they were more distinct.

 

[PSIGuy]

Elma also wasn't popular with the ballot so she's kind of in this no-man's land.

Smash Ballot voting closed: October 3rd, 2015
Xenoblade Chronicles X Western release date: December 5th, 2015
...Probably hurt her ballot results just a wee bit.

 

[andimidna]

Really surprised as to where all the Ashley popularity came from. I don’t remember her being so significant a few years back. During a lot of Smash 4 speculation it seemed like Mona’s name came up even more often, even Kat & Ana. Can’t help but feel like when dealing with limited newcomers that Wario content would be low priority when considering all the other options, but ig she could’ve scored higher on the ballot than I’m thinking. Guess that’s for her day though hm

 

[harukaamami]

Really surprised as to where all the Ashley popularity came from. I don’t remember her being so significant a few years back. During a lot of Smash 4 speculation it seemed like Mona’s name came up even more often, even Kat & Ana. Can’t help but feel like when dealing with limited newcomers that Wario content would be low priority when considering all the other options, but ig she could’ve scored higher on the ballot than I’m thinking. Guess that’s for her day though hm

Ashley kinda grew a lot after Smash 4; the idea of the character became popular I guess. Although Sakurai called her Wario Ware's rising star back in 2015. Anyway, she was the only Wario Ware character to remain relevant during the Wario game drought, for instance, thanks to her multiple appearances in Badge Arcade (she probably got the most badges in the game and in the Japanese version Arcade Bunny was an Ashley fanboy) and the 3 3DS themes dedicated to her. It's also telling that Mona's Pizza and Mike's Song were cut after Brawl yet Ashley's stayed and got a new remix.

 

[Arcanir]

Overrated:
1. Rex/Pyra: I don't feel these two are unlikely, in fact I'd say it's closer to a coin flip with them. However, in terms of their chances I feel we did overrate them as they are considered the most likely character(s) at this point, which considering our speculation on the matter I don't think is a proper reflection of their placement. I think these two could use another look so that we can get a better discussion over their current situation and see where they land now that we kind of have an idea on the direction of this game.
2. Decidueye: This one hurts to say as it's my top two most wanted Pokémon from Gen 7, but like with Rex/Pyra while I don't think it's unlikely, I do feel both it and the other Pokémon need a revisit. With us getting every veteran back and a lot of other variables coming into play, we have a lot more to consider with the newcomer direction and Pokémon selection as a whole. Decidueye is not as straight an answer as we once thought, and I think we need to go back and see how what happened with E3 affects it and the others.

Underrated:
1. Isabelle: Highly popular, very notable in her series, and her AT is currently MIA. While the latter is tenuous since it could just be missing from the demo, it does lend to the possibility of her being upgraded and I feel she does have a lot more going for her to be reconsidered.
2. Ashley: Similar to Isabelle, she's one of the most popular characters in Japan not in yet, and with her AT also being currently MIA that potentially bodes well for her.
3. Simon Belmont: I'm still iffy on the leak, but one of the major things we docked Simon for was that he was with Konami and we felt that was something of a death sentence considering their antics. Now that we know Konami is willing to play ball, Simon's biggest hurdle for many fans is gone, so like the others I feel we should go back over him and see how he stands without that shadow looming over his head.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Overrated

Mimikyu

- It’s popular and has anime oresence but that’s just it. With Pichu returning and Pika Libre being an alt, do we really need another Pokemon that looks like Pikachu? Sure, it has the while Ghost-type thing going on but it’ll need more than that. Heck, even Decidueye and Incineroar were kinda affected negatively by the huge roster.

Sora

- Dealing with Disney can be tricky, very tricky.

Waluigi
- No, this is not happening. Sakurai has made it pretty clear several times and even made him the poster boy of ATs that can be KO’D. He’ll need a bigger role in either a main Mario game or a Wario game.

Underrated

Ashley

- Overlooked by many due to Waluigi and he’ll be stuck in AT purgatory again. Out of the Warioware characters. she’s the biggest character after Wario himself and the most requested character from that series. She’s got plenty of badges in the Badge Arcade, 3 3DS themes and has even appeared in promotion material for other games as well.

Chrom

- Fire Emblem fatigue aside, with Echo Fighters being a thing, he’s one of the most likely candidates for it. Sakurai’s aware of the salt that was generated when he was turned into a FS and said FS was mysteriously absent from the E3 demo as well as the Ike alt based on Chrom’s palette...could Viridi’s comment in Smash 4 have been actual foreshadowing...? Could Chrom finally get his chance for real...?

Funky Kong

- Greatly overshadowed by a certain overweight crocodile and Dixie Kong. Despite that, he’s been making appearances in other games and he’s the poster boy for the Tropical Freeze port. Taking over the cover and even a mode.

 

[slambros]

Most Overrated #3: Crash Bandicoot
It won't happen this time, with how slim the field is. His chance is definitely smaller.

Most Overrated #2: Decidueye
Bringing back Ivysaur dampens the need for another grass type pokemon. He'd definitely be cool, for sure, but circumnstances have changed. If we do rate him again, his chance rating will almost definitely take a bit of a hit.

Most Overrated #1: Mimikyu
Pichu came back. This is a big decision. And now, there's about to be less than ten newcomers in the base roster. We shouldn't be acting like Mimikyu is worthy of being in a conversative pool such as this, especially now that we know the developers are aiming to be crowdpleasing more than anything. So while there are three Links, I highly, highly doubt the developets will want what amounts to three Pikachus. In fact, I've got a potentially controversial thought: in light of the current circumstance, I feel like the inclusion of Mimikyu in such a restrained field could be insulting to the creativity of the developers.


Most Underrated #3: Geno
Sakurai's been trying to get this character in for over a decade, and the space for inclusion is slim enough as to where every single one of the legitimate newcomers (such as Inkling and Ridley) absolutely has to be some sort of heavy hitter. I'm certain that now is the time.

Most Underrated #2: Dark Samus
I'm extremely certain that the 'echo character' moniker was made for a character like Dark Samus.

Most Underrated #1: Dillon
There were a lot of potential characters who have been an AT in the past that haven't been deconfirmed yet, but I think that there is one of those characters that people are sleeping on, and that is Dillon from Dillon's Rolling Western. My reason is that we just saw how Nintendo was willing to move forward with the franchise. We've seen Nintendo-backed downloadable games come and go, and yet, Nintendo gave the go-ahead for this one. Not for Pushmo, not for Rusty's Real Deal Baseball, not for Sakura Samurai: Art Of The Sword, but for Dillon's Rolling Western. I feel like that's important. And his inclusion would be a great way to have an eShop representation that would have a cooler, more natural moveset, rather than a wacky, untraditional moveset.