Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[andimidna]

Mike:
Takamaru might’ve been too obscure last time, but has had recent things change that at least somewhat.
Chance: 5%
Want: 50%
Neutral
Can’t tell if it’s Mimikyu or Belmont from above posts and I’m in a rush so I’ll do both
Mimikyu prediction: 21%
Simon Belmont prediction: 16%

x5 FE Summoner

 

[Zerp]

Mike Jones:
Chances: 2%
I doubt this will happen, but maybe as a surprise pick?
Want: 10%
Not opposed, but I don't care.

Predictions: Wonder Red 13%
Nominations: Mimikyu x 3
Gooey x 2

Also, there's no need to worry @Lampy , I haven't forgotten to remind you

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Mike Jones

Double Abstain

Nominating Solaire X5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Mike Jones

Chance: 4%
Too obscure to have a solid shot at the roster...but juuuuuust obscure enough to attract Sakurai's attention. I would put this above a 1%.

Want: 2%
Too plainclothes for me though, sorry. He wants another round in the spotlight, of course - him and dozens of other retro characters left behind in history's march.


Prediction:
Wonder Red: 11%

Nominations:
Item: Breidablik x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Mike Jones

Chance 10%
Want Abstain

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because retros are a tradition and he has his own retro series but tbh I find him less likely than some higher profiled retros.

x2 Tom Nook
x3 Lara Croft

 

[Deleted member]

Mimikyu: 22.5%

- It’s one of the most popular Gen 7 Pokemon.

We're not rating Mimikyu tomorrow.
----
...and this will my last post before Mimikyu's day, so see you guys then.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Mike Jones Chance - 2%: Random retros are still getting put in, but predicting that slot seems next to impossible with most of the obvious ones out of the way besides Takamaru.

Mike Jones Want - 0%: Never been a fan of random retro characters in general.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[Koopaul]

This is the main problem I have with the idea of adding characters who are completely lacking in unique moves or even basic abilities like Captain Toad, or with Rosalina in her current state; they have to be intentionally misrepresented to a gross degree in order to be shoehorned into the game for the sake of so-called "relevancy" or whatever.

I'd say Rosalina was added more likely due to popularity and to represent Mario Galaxy.

I'd argue most people don't mind if characters have completely made up moves. Look at Captain Falcon. I'd also argue that while some characters take more creative liberties than others, they still have something in their moveset that represents their series. Even slightly. Captain Falcon is one of the fastest characters because of his fast paced racing series. It's not much, but it's something.

As for a character's moveset that would take more work/time to realize in order to be unique, and it decreasing their chances like @Roberk stated. You also have to factor in how Sakurai loves to surprise players with characters they'd never expect and is willing to work extra hard on oddballs just for that. However, if we factored in the element of surprise then none of our ratings would mean anything.

 

[Aetheri]

Missed Lycanroc's day...darn it...
Well this would've been my score regardless...
Chance: 30%
Want: 90%
Lycanroc happens to be one of my favourite Alola mons....I like wolves...probably would be just outside of my top 10 for Smash because earth bending wolfy would be interesting...but still not my ideal wolfy as it doesn't have a snarky imp riding on its back

Anyways...

Mike Jones

Chance: 0.5%
If a retro character with obscurity in the west couldn't make it into Smash (Takamaru), one with obscurity in the east more than likely won't either...and unlike Takamaru Nintendo hasn't been pushing the Star Tropics series all that much at all...

Not likely...

Want: 0%
eh...

----

Wonder Red-11.11%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[fogbadge]

mike jones

chances: 5% certainly one of the least likely nintendo characters

want: 80% ive only played a little of the first star tropics but id like to see him


nominate: ashley mizuki robins

 

[bksbestbwoy]

Mike Jones

Chances: 5%

TFW you know "Who?" comes after every mention of this character's name in the year 2018 because of the poor coincidence that he has the same name of another American figure who's claim to fame is talking about people not recognizing him, retro characters are among the hardest to pinpoint and rally behind, the StarTropics series never saw a Japanese release leaving it in a situation where it can be passed up for more global properties and as time goes on it becomes increasingly harder to justify his inclusion...

Want: 100%

This is a character that I want more than anybody else however. He sits upon the golden throne above literally everyone else. StarTropics was the first game I *earned* in my life, having to play through and beat my mother and aunt at Tetris and play through the entirety of Super Mario Bros. without warps in the early 90s. I still remember the conditions of this huge task for 4 year old me, the excitement of actually accomplishing it and the trip to Toys R Us (rip) to get that wonderful slip for StarTropics and as a bonus, StarTropics 2 along with a few other titles. This game is so intrinsically tied to my beginnings as someone who would find and enjoy multiple genres and styles of both video games and Nintendo games that I genuinely feel happy anytime I see someone talking about the series or its elements near me.

The game itself is a warmhearted adventure with a lot of humor, some really unique gameplay hooks and a scenario that felt so much bigger than the quaint game it is objectively. The sequel is equally, if not more so humorous but at the cost of watering down the gameplay hooks mildly. Through the course of these two titles, the main hero Mike gains an absolutely wild and imaginative plethora of combat items, support spells, a cast of surprisingly colorful figures and goes through two absolutely madcap campaigns full of some really silly references to "modern" American pop culture for 1990/1994.

I'm cutting this short for now since life calls, but the summary is that Mike in a Smash playable role would honestly be something that would make me, at 28 years of age, scream out of excitement.

Noms: Lip x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Mike Jones

0% Chance

I do not like to give flat zeros. I have to here. Startropics has never come to Japan. Not on Wii Virtual Console. Not on Wii U Virtual Console. Not even for the Famicom mini. The series is dead as hell, so his only shot is as a retro. Unfortunately, the fact he has never appeared in Japan hurts him so much here. With Takamaru, it is different because not only does Nintendo like the idea of Takamaru more given his Nintendo Land role, his game coming to the US, and the hype for him maybe appearing in Smash. With Mike, we got a character that is relatively unknown and nonexistent in Japan.

100% Want

...which is a shame because I love Startropics. Real talk here, my top ten NES games looks a bit different from most peoples. Startropics is one of my favorites. It has this weird feeling of a fusion of Mother and Zelda, and I mean that in the best way. I honestly feel that reviving Star Tropics would be fun, I would love to see what it would be like. Probably like a ******* child of Zelda, Mother, Psychonauts, and maybe a dash of lime

Nominating Spyro x 5

DAY OVER, CALCS INCOMING, PLEASE DO NOT POST AFTER THIS UNTIL THE NEXT DAY.

 

[King9999]

I'm saddened by the number of people who don't want Mike.

 

[Troykv]

I'm saddened by the number of people who don't want Mike.

Well, it's expected, Mike isn't exactly a character with much going for him now; at least he will be far from being the most disliked character.

 

[Ura]

Well, it's expected, Mike isn't exactly a character with much going for him now; at least he will be far from being the most disliked character.

Meh,

I bet if Startropics were to get revived, we would see an influx supporters looking to catch on to his renewed momentum.

Although that goes for most characters I guess.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Mike Jones
4.02% Chance
30.91% Want

Not a good day for Mike, but in the grand scheme of things for a character in his position I think he did ok. It seems everyone that played Startropics wanted him.All five of us lol.

andimidna and @colder_than_ice were both only off by .02, I saw I give em 10 extra noms each since rarely are people that close.

Today we got Simon Belmont, the original Belmont. Well not in canon, but in the first game and he is the most iconic. Rate Simon Belmont in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Qbby.

 

[Deleted member]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 1%

I'm not going to sugarcoat his chances. If Snake, a beloved veteran and someone certainly far more popular, can't return because of Konami, then I wouldn't put much faith into someone like Simon either. A horrible night to have a curse indeed.

Want: 100%

What did you expect from the guy who owns his support thread? Castlevania is easily my favorite video game franchise not represented in Smash, and while Simon is admittedly not my favorite character from that series (that would be Alucard, who'd also be cool to have in Smash), a moveset centered around the whip and various sub-weapons would be a lot of fun. I'd also love a Castlevania stage and some remixes of classic tunes such as Vampire Killer, Bloody Tears, and Simon's own theme.

Nomination: Spyro x5

 

[Cosmic77]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 5%
He's a classic of sorts, so I guess he could make it in. He's got a lot of competition though, and I'm not sure if he'd be the first pick for a third-party character.

Oh yeah, and Konami exists too. Not exactly helping his chances here.

Want: 5%
Sorry to his supporters, but I never particularly cared for this guy, nor have I really cared for third-parties in general. I'll at least give him a 5 for being somewhat iconic.

Qbby prediction: 14.7%

Nominations: Mipha x5 (Despite Mipha having over 200 noms, I guarantee you that more than 80% of them have come from me.)

 

[Troykv]

Mike Jones
4.02% Chance
30.91% Want

Not a good day for Mike, but in the grand scheme of things for a character in his position I think he did ok. It seems everyone that played Startropics wanted him.All five of us lol.

andimidna and @colder_than_ice were both only off by .02, I saw I give em 10 extra noms each since rarely are people that close.

Today we got Simon Belmont, the original Belmont. Well not in canon, but in the first game and he is the most iconic. Rate Simon Belmont in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Qbby.

I was right, every not joke character will get a higher Chance Score than Micaiah, I want my own bonus predictions (?)

Ejem...

Simon Belmont... Well.. this case is interesting, but I'll resume it; at least for now, because I doubt my score would change anyway.

Castlevania is like Bomberman, one of this long-live franchise from Konami, this one in particular in their better times was one of company's main brands (and even nowadays still does stuff, even if isn't exactly videogames).

Simon compared with fellow Konami character Bomberman, it's recently gaining some popularity again; Bomberman's revival ended up making a bigger splash in the industry, but Castlevania is still a more recognizable brand with tons of legacy, so I'll give him.

Chance: 22% (Yeah, the exact same score... if this wasn't Konami I would think it giving him a 30% Score, but nah)

Want: 60%

I like Castlevania games, I think he would be really fun.

__________________________________

Predictions:

Qbby: 17.5%

Nominations (This is the last day to define the next Top 7 right?)

Tom Nook x2
KOS-MOS x3

 

[TCT~Phantom]

One thing I want to do from now on is put some music for the character in the thread. I'll do it today but if anyone else wants to be my guest.

 

[MrElectroG64]

Simon Belmont

Chances: 30%
I'd say his chances are alright as of now. He seems to be one of the more requested Third Parties, tied seemingly with Bomberman, another Konami character. I'd only place his chances so low only because 1.) He's in fierce competition with bomberman, and 2.) Konami seems to be on shakey grounds right now with nintendo, but we'll see I guess.

Want: 20%
He'd be fine, but I'd say I would rather have others as third parties, such as DOOMguy or Amaterasu, but Simon Belmont seems much more likely.


Nominations: Louie x5

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 20%

Want: 45%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[-crump-]

Whip it Good (Simon Belmont)

Chance: 10%
Konami is the only reason this isn’t higher. Simon and his franchise do certainly hold a place in gaming history, and he wouldn’t be too out of place next to other third parties like Cloud and Ryu. However, Konami’s ownership is a sizeable obstical, as is the continued requests for Solid Snake.

Want: 10%
No interest personally, but he’s earned his place.

Noms:
Tingle x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 33%
There's not many classic, influential video game characters left to nominate, but Simon Belmont's certainly one of them. Oddly enough, no one ever raises a stink on how he's not exactly the most recurring protagonist, but it doesn't seem like that matters, really.

Want: 20%
No personal connection, but I can respect a good historical choice, Konami issues notwithstanding. It's not like he lacks anything you'd either want or expect from a good playable candidate.


Prediction:
Abby: 7.5%

Nominations:
Papyrus x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 25%

Just read my post on Bomberman.

Want: ABSTAIN, tho I do plan on playing Super Castlevania 4 soon.

Predictions for Qbby: 12.96%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[RouffWestie]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 75%

He's one of the few well-known NES characters not already in Smash left. From its inception on the NES, many sequels have kept the franchise alive, even when they went in different directions. Castlevania remains relevant in the modern day thanks to its own Netflix series, and an upcoming mobile game. There's clear plans to keep the franchise alive in many ways, but Simon's not a safe bet until Castlevania is back on the home console market; it'd take the announcement of a new standalone Castlevania game/reboot/HD remake to convince me he's more likely.

Want: 100%

One of my most wanted. I love Castlevania and I'd be excited to see how his source material would be implemented in Smash.

Nominations: Lip x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Simon Belmont

Chance - 5%

Konami is a pain in the butt to work with, as evidenced by Smash 4. However, in the case that Konami is willing to work on Smash again (which doesn't seem super unlikely, considering their involvement with the Switch), he still has to face competition from Snake returning and Bomberman, another requested character with a strong relationship to Nintendo.

He's easily the least likely of the three possible Konami characters. He doesn't have the recent support that Bomberman has, and he doesn't have the immense popularity that Snake returning has. The Castlevania has received a good amount of attention on the NES and SNES Classics, a pretty awesome show on Netflix, and even stated to be a franchise Sakurai is rather fond of, but he doesn't seem like the most likely Konami character to me by a significant margin.

Want - 80%

Probably the highest Want score I'll give any 3rd party character. Although I kind of wish I could redo my Banjo Want score, I took way too many points off for him not being super iconic and for being western.

He fits all the third party criteria for me. He's iconic, has an extremely long history with Nintendo, comes from a Japanese company with a long history with Nintendo, would fit in very well in Smash, all that good stuff.

I'm not a fan of adding more 3rd parties at all, but I've always felt like with Konami's absence in Smash 4, they're the last big Japanese video game company with a significant relationship to Nintendo to not be in Smash, unless I'm forgetting someone.

Aside from that, Castlevania is a great series. Not my absolute favorite franchise, but I absolutely adore Super Castlevania IV and Symphony of the Night. In terms of Simon himself, we don't have a whip user in Smash either, so he'd certainly bring something new to the table, along with all of his sub-weapons, like his holy water, dagger, cross, axe, etc.

And honestly, Simon would be worth having in Smash just for the music alone.

Nominations:
Lip x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

While I think Konami’s treatment of Kojima will heavily affect Simon chances of getting in, in the scenario Sakurai gets past the issue, I feel EXTREMELY certain that Simon be the next Konami newcomer. Sakurai has large history with the franchise since the first game on the NES, based on the statements he gave in the Sakurai x Nomura interview:

“For me personally, it was the year 1986, when games like The Legend of Zelda and Castlevania were released, and I experienced physically interactive games. They had a big impact on me.”

I feel such notable impact alone will put Simon as a top contender for a second Konami newcomer. I would argue that he would not need the ballot to get considered if he gets the opportunity to negotiate with Konami. Simon would be a choice chosen out of his will, much like Ryu in Smash 4 DLC.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[CometX-ing]

Simon Belmont
Chances: 20%
I can't see him getting in over Bomberman. There isn't really anything going for him save for the Netflix show but even that isn't much Bomberman was one of the Switches first games so it would make too much sense to add him over basically any other Konami rep. That is of course assuming we get a Konami rep at all.

Want: 10%
Purely off of the basis that he could be a cool addition based on his weapons. I have no strong connection to the Castlevania series and don't really care if he get in or not.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[QuickRat]

Chances? I would say 20%. He is very unlikely. However, if Konami was interested in having a Smash character, I'm sure Simon Belmont would be one of the proposals. However, I'd say both Snake and Bomberman, who belong to Konami too, are way more likely.

Want? 80%. A whip-based character that can use subweapons (cross, axe, holy water, etc.) would be a great addition to the roster. Original, different as well as related to Nintendo history.

Nominations (copy/pasting proposals from the 2nd message in this thread):

Dark Samus ×1 — Not as a clone, but as a good representation of the Metroid Prime series. She could teleport, she could use the Shrapnel Beam to attack several enemies, she could levitate... And of course, as Final Smash, she could become the worst nightmare: the actual Metroid Prime, the origin of Phazon and the seed of corruption of Tallon IV, Aether and Samus Aran herself.

Concept: Decloned Ganondorf ×1 — Don't take me wrong. I love his moveset (in Project M, in Melee, Brawl and Smash 4 is kind of lame, especially with that useless Utilt) and I love to kick some people playing as him. However, I would love to see a proper canon Ganondorf. His current moveset, though improved quite a lot, shall be passed onto Black Shadow, the main villain of a beloved series.

Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User ×3 — We need this. If you see the main characters of the series, we have more variety than what is represented in Smash 4 (except Robin/Daraen and Corrin, all are swordsmen). Prince Ephraim, main character in the excellent GBA game Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones, used to employ his lance against forces of Evil.

 

[King9999]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 2%
Want: 80%

I don't have much faith in current Konami. It seems like they're moving away from consoles and going into mobile full-time. I don't see them lending their IP to Smash. Snake was a one-off.

Simon would be a great fit in Smash, though. His moveset is pretty much established. I wonder if they would base him off CV4, where he has the 8-way whip attacks? I see Simon as being a mid/long-range fighter with not much in the way of mobility or stage recovery.

 

[Opossum]

Simon Belmont!
Chance: 10%
Konami, Not Snake, etc

Want: 100%
Hell yeah

Predicting a 9.9 for Qbby
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[Deleted member]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 30%
Want: abstain
Not much to say on him again.

Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Qbby prediction: 11.03%

 

[Slyshock]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 10%
Simon's chances may depend somewhat on how well Castlevania did in the ballot, since otherwise I'm not sure if it's the first franchise that Konami would try to get represented. Not to say that Castlevania isn't one of the few Konami franchises still popping out content, but it has some stiff competition from a fan favorite and a veteran which are both more likely to appeal to the greater Smash community. It's unknown if Konami would even be willing to offer one or several newcomers to begin with, since as far as I know Snake's absence from Smash 4 has yet to be explained. Even if Castlevania did get the green light, however, Simon would still be only one of several strong possibilities to carry the face of the franchise. Trevor and Alucard are on Netflix in addition to several fantastic games, and Alucard in particular would represent the Metroidvania side of the games well if that's the direction Sakurai would go for.

All that being said, Simon's still got an X-Factor on his side. Sakurai happens to be a longtime Castlevania fan, starting with the original and continuing to be invested after the Metroidvania gameplay shift up through to at least the GBA titles. No word on who his favorite character is, unfortunately. It's almost certain that he'd have a strong personal interest in seeing a Castlevania rep come to life in Smash, though how much this interest would be weighed against everything else is hard to say. Still, having the head honcho in your corner couldn't possibly hurt any.

Want: 95%
Castlevania is home to some of the finest games ever made, both Classicvania and Metroidvania styles were explored masterfully. A series like Smash, a game about action and platforming, would be doing a cosmic justice having a legend of action platformers playable. I'd love for Simon to be the first fighter with 8 aerials, and for every single one of them to be a straight whip crack. I can just imagine stunlocking Mario with endless holy water, or recovering to the stage with that unwieldy jump arc. Only downside is that he might end up with his modern boy band design over the beefy He-Man barbarian of yore.

Nominations: Nikki x5

 

[Indefinite Minimum]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 10%
The guy above me thinks so and he sounds pretty smart.

Want: 0%
I cannot into Castlevania.

Nominations:
Dragonite x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 19%
I get the feeling that he did extremely well on the ballot, and Konami still kinda gives a **** about Castlevania (in their own Konami way, mobile games and tv series). But yeah, it’s Konami, and he’s probably behind Snake and Bomberman.

Want: 100%
What can I say that hasn’t been said before? We deserve the Konami trinity in Smash.

Qbby (at last!) prediction: 20%

Nominations: Prince SableX5

 

[wildvine47]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 17% - Simon's in a rough, rough spot. The last of the Captain N crew is owned by the thorniest third party in town, and has two heavy hitters to compete with in the veteran Snake and the Switch-inhabiting Bomberman. If any channel is opened to Konami for content, I feel like Snake would definitely be first in line, which leaves Simon and Bomberman to fight for second place, barring the incredibly unlikely scenario Konami gets access to three slots. Castlevania's lack of a big recent title hurts a bit, hence the lower score than Bomberman, but he'd be a legacy pick anyways, so it doesn't hurt him too much.

Want: 90% - Even if I had a curse, Simon getting into Smash would make a horrible night a hell of a lot better.

Qbby: 11.01% - You know, this guy might actually be a decent surprise contender. He's got a decent little series to himself, and Hal seems quite fond of him. He might be a bit TOO basic though, and I could very easily see him getting the Assist Trophy role instead. He's a lock for that at least IMO.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

This is probs a plea that'll fall on deaf ears due to the nature of the character, but if anyone wanted to help get Scorpion up in the rankings so he could be rated pre-E3, I'd be very appreciative.

 

[skylanders fan]

Simon Belmont

Here's the thing Castlevania was big during the NES and had games for a bunch of other Nintendo systems so he has that. He also is somewhat known but here is where I have the issue there are just so many other 3rd parties that fit more. Every 3rd party besides had big connections to nintendo like and or are the top icons of there genre like and . And I just don't feel Simon fit that bill and Castlevaina hasn't had a game since 2014 and well he just seems to not fit in the game with the likes of now that doesn't stop his chances totally I mean we did get aswell so who knows. However I feel there are better 3rd party options out there.

chance is at 15%

He would have a cool moveset
want 50%

nomination
x2 funkey kong
x3 labo man

qubby at 8.9%

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Simon Belmont Chance: 10%
Konami.

Want: 50%

Qbby Prediction: 15%

Nominations: Rex/ Pyra rerate X5

 

[Deleted member]

Ehhh **** it I'm posting

Music, eh? There was that one theme from Castlevania IV that I wanted to post, but I couldn't find it so I'll opt for this classic instead.

Anyway...

Simon Belmont

Chance: 5%
Pros:

• Pretty highly requested
• Iconic character
• Moveset potential is certainly there
• I was unaware of Sakurai's personal connection to the franchise before I read BluePikmin's post, so that could help

Cons:

• Being a third party, he's more unlikely than not by default
• On top of that, he's owned by Konami, who are in a questionable state
• Has competition in the form of veteran Snake and the more popular(?) Bomberman, possibly among others

Overall, I find him very unlikely.

Want: 40%
I used to want him, but after playing through Super Castlevania IV and part of Castlevania III I no longer find his moveset potential exciting. I'd prefer Snake and Bomberman as far as Konami characters go, and even as far as Castlevania characters Alucard interests me a lot more.
He gets an extra 15% for the music he'd inevitably bring along with him. I'd honestly prefer a stage and some music from Castlevania over a character.

Mimikyu x5
Getting closer