Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Lycanroc

97% Chance

BluePikmin11 and @Delzethin convinced me. Just everything seems lined up for Lycanroc. He has been marketed to heck. He is Ash's main pokemon of the Alola region. He was a huge thing for GX in the TCG. He has been a huge thin in the anime even excluding Ash's Lycanroc. It has gotten its own form due to its anime importance for gods sake. Dusk made this thing go from the third choice imo right to the top.

100% Want

Ok I am slightly biased here. I love this thing. The moment I saw Rockruff it was one of my favorites. Lycanroc Midday was the ultimate reason I got Sun over Moon. Lycanroc Dusk was the mon that convinced me to get USUM. On Pokemon Showdown I won a legit Shiny Lycanroc Dusk with perfect IVS in a givaway. It even looks like a Carolina Dog, which is one of my favorite types of dogs. I also find the concept of a terraformer so interesting. We as of yet do not have a fighter that uses Earth and dirt.

Nominating Spyro x 10


Day over, calcs coming st 11 Am EDT, I swear if someone posts after this one I will ignore their cores and noms.

 

[slambros]

Well, I'm 20 minutes late. It's fine if this is ignored, but I figured I'd give posting a shot, just in case.

Lycanroc

Chance: 20%
Want: 50%

Nominations:
Excitebiker x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Lycanroc
37.42% Chance
41.85% Want

The Decidueye hype train is real. Aside from some notable outlier like myself, I am surprised how well Lycanroc did today. Overall decent scores. Will be interesting to see how Mimkyu fares in comparison.

FamicomDisk gets the noms for Lycanroc btw.

Today we got Mike Jones. No not the rapper. The hero of Startropics, the cult classic NES game only released in North America. Please rate him in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Simon Belmont tomorrow.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Mike:
Chance: 5%
I'm willing to give him a chance as retro rep

Want: 10%
Meh

Balloon Fighter x5
(Do I get 10 noms? In that case I'd like to add another 5 noms to Balloon Fighter
also no need to get pissy rlly I scrolled through the thread just to make my post and it's not like the day ended on a logical time in my timezone

 

[Troykv]

Mike Jones

Chance: 1%

Are we talking about that legacy game that doesn't exist in Japan? At least Punch Out existed in Japan.

Want: Abstain

I'm indifferent.

_______________

Predictions:

Simon Belmont: 20.3% (I'm expecting something similar to Bomberman's case, but slightly lower)

Nominations:

Tom Nook x3
KOS-MOS x2

 

[Cosmic77]

Mike Jones

Chance: 5%
Out of every retro we could get, I doubt we'll get one that never even appeared in Japan.

Want: 0%
No connection to him.

Simon Belmont prediction: 17.7%

Nominations: Mipha x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Mike Jones

Chance: 1%

Simple explanation today: StarTropics as far as I can tell has never been released in Japan. I don't imagine that would do much good for a potential Smash fighter, especially a retro one.

Want: 50%

Absolutely indifferent. I have no personal desire for his inclusion, nor would have any issues if he was included.

Simon Belmont prediction: 22.10%

Nominations: Tails x5

 

[ShinyRegice]

Mike Jones chances: 2%
America only, obscure, he feels more like a retro for the sake of one.

Mike Jones want: 0%
Doesn't interest me. I'll pass.

Simon Belmont prediction: 11.26%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x3
Returning game mode: Smash Run x2

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Mike Jones

Chance: 20% - I'm not gonna count him out. but given his game was never released in Japan, I feel like his chances aren't super high. at least little Mac has SOME presence in japan to help him get in. but he's still a Nintendo Character. so he has a shot.

Want: 10% - I've never played his games. they were before my time. they do look interesting though. and I finally managed to pre-order a NES classic mini. so in a little over a month's time, I'll get to try out Startropics and form a real opinion on Mike. but for now he's not very high on my want radar, since I have no attachment to him.

Predicition for SImon: 36%

Nominations
Black Mage x1
Sable Prince x1
Spyro x1
Tingle x1
Wonder Red x1
I'm guessing I don't get the 5 extra noms everyone else got yesterday since I missed out on Lycanroc's day. that's fine.

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Mike Jones
Chance 1%
Obscure character and game that has not released in Japan and besides that he faces heavy competition for the "retro" spot like Takamaru and Ayumi.

Want: 20%
I played StarTropics, but did not finish it. Mike is alright.

Simon Belmont: 34.36%

x5 to KOS-MOS

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Mike Jones

Chance: 1%

Non-existent in Japan and very obscure everywhere else. Don't think having Startropics on the NES mini has brought him back into relevancy. Takamaru and the Excitebiker are far likelier retro picks.

Want: ABSTAIN

Predictions for Simon Belmont: 24.17%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[Deleted member]

Mike Jones

Chance: 1%

Being western-exclusive does him no favors. If he weren't first party, he'd be one of the few characters we've rated so far I'd give a zero in chance.

Want: 25%

Nomination: Spyro x5

 

[wildvine47]

Mike Jones

Chance: 2% - Sakurai turned down Takamaru for being Japan-only, so an America-only only character? Never happening. A lot of his kit would end up being rather similar to Ness's anyways, what with the yo-yo and bat and all.

Want: 50% - It'd be neat to see him acknowledged, but I'm not gonna lose any sleep over him missing the boat.

Predictions

Simon Belmont: 22.22% - What a terrible night to have a (Konami) curse.

Nominations

Scorpion x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

Mike Jones

Chance - 1%

He could be a retro character, but I think Takamaru has that spot locked down. Even if Takamaru isn't the retro choice this time around, or we get multiple retro characters, he still faces competition from characters like an Excitebiker, Balloon Fighter, Sukapon, Lip, etc., etc.

Want - ABSTAIN

Never played his game. Know nothing about the guy. Don't really care if he gets in or not.

All I know is that his dungeon theme is groovy.

Nominations:
Spyro x5

 

[Deleted member]

Mike Jones

Chance: 0%
Obscure, Western-only IP that Sakurai might never have heard of. Look at how there was zero reference to Of Myths and Monsters in Kid Icarus: Uprising.

Want: 50%
Haven't played to any of his games, but when I see something like this:

​

...Yeah, I give him a pass.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5

Simon Belmont prediction: 16.72%

 

[Sid-cada]

Mike Jones

Chance - 0.05% - Does Sakurai even know about this guy? When that's a question you have to ask, it's unlikely either way.

Want - 10% - I don't see the appeal other than having the west have a western-elusive character. Most people don't even know him.


Predicition

Simon Belmont - 23.42% - I dunno.

Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[BluePikmin11]

I just cannot see Mike Jones being considered unless his placement in the ballot ranks are notable very high. I do not think Sakurai has ever heard of Startropics at all, based on how barebones in representation it gets in every Smash Bros game. If anything, the retro newcomers Sakurai will likely seriously consider are Takamaru & Balloon Fighter. I do not see Mike Jones competing for the retro newcomer spot at all.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[Yokta]

12% Chance, 60% Want

I find it kinda weird that StarTropics hasn't gotten so much as a mention in Smash yet. It's quite a novelty in Nintendo's history, being developed by one of their Japanese teams specifically for America. I'm unfamiliar with the franchise, but from what I hear I wouldn't mind getting to know Mike Jones.

Votes: +1 Smash Run, +1 Tora & Poppi, +3 Spyro

 

[Opossum]

Lol at the thought of Sakurai adding a US-only retro character. No way that'll happen.

Double Zeroes.

Predicting a 21.12 for Simon
Nominating K. Rool x5

 

[CometX-ing]

Mike Jones
Chances: 0%
The only time I have ever heard of this guy is on the odd wishlist. But from what I get he was basically only known in the west. There are a number of retro reps that would get in over him.

Want: 0%
Literally who. I never played StarTropics nor do I really want to. I have other retro reps I would rather have, let alone other characters.

Nominations:
Primarina x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Mike Jones
Chance: 1% - Western exclusive and too obscure, but owned by Nintendo.
Want: 2% - Eh.

Prediction: Simon Belmont
Chance: 24.65%
Want: 51.82%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[FamicomDisk]

FamicomDisk gets the noms for Lycanroc btw.

Ooh, nice!

-----

Mike Jones

Chance: 20%
I’m not sure how good his chances are. On the one hand, Mike seems to be a decently popular pick over here. He’s not SUPER popular, but he also seems to have a good following. He’s also pretty much the only character I can think of that could represent a Nintendo-made game that didn’t get released in Japan. On the other hand, that could also be a detriment - Nintendo is a Japan-based company, and generally, Smash characters were either released worldwide, or only in Japan. A game only in America? It may be a tough road for Mike.

Want: 85%
Mike is one of my most-wanted newcomers! He represents a very interesting part of Nintendo’s history, being a game they made but only released over here, and I’ve always liked non-traditional weapons being used to fight, like Ness and Lucas with the bat, stick, and etc. Mike has lots of those kinds of attack, and he’s got a bunch that are different from Ness that could be used in Smash! I also just like StarTropics, so I want him in!

-----

Simon Belmont chance prediction: 18.67%

Nomination:
DeMille x10

 

[Deleted member]

Mike Jones

Double 0's.
Western exclusive character is an immediate no. Being an obscure retro on top of that is a death sentence. And personally, I don't find him that interesting.

Nominating KOS-MOS x2, Excitebiker x2, Tingle x1

Simon Belmont prediction: 13.15%

 

[Deleted member]

Mike jones
Chance-30%
Want-5%
Id like him to appear as a trophy or adsist trophy... But nothing other than that.

Pred-
Simon belmont 36%

Noms-
Lip x2
Sable prince x2
Tora and poppi x1

 

[Deleted member]

I shall abstain from today, and nominate Mimikyu x5.

I have a rough month ahead of me, so I probably won't be able to post for a while (specifically until E3 but that's more of a free day than a return).
However, I want to be present on Mimikyu's day because I have some things to say about it, so can someone send me a PM on Discord when that happens? My tag is on my profile.
(Don't ignore this pls)

 

[Kotor]

Mike Jones
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Ah, Mike Jones. I remember I became aware of his existence during the pre-SSB4 hype. I believe it was E3 2014 when some fake leaker made a claim that Star Tropics was gonna get a remake on Wii U. My reaction then, and today is a simple "WHO THE **** IS MIKE JONES?!"

An obscure NES character whose game was never release in Japan. Takamaru twice couldn't get in because Sakurai thought he was too obscure outside of Japan. What makes you think this kid has any shot of being playable? I'd rather see Blue Bowser get in over this kid. It would be a miracle if Mike Jones was added in as a plain old trophy to collect. Beyond that is a pipe dream.

Nominations
Bowser/DK/Diddy Kong canon voices x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Mike Jones

Chance- 5%
Somewhere in an alretnate reality, the Japanese are mad that there are 6 Startropics characters.

Want- 45%
Hed be a cool retro fighter, but not on my personal radar.

Simon Belmont- 15.87%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[RouffWestie]

Mike Jones

Chance: 1%

Want: 1%

Nominations: Eevee x5

 

[Opossum]

I'll never understand why some folks are giving Mike Jones scores as high as fifteen or even TWENTY (one in five!) when he's a US-only retro character with basically no fan demand.

Especially when some of the same people gave Henry Fleming, for example, a zero for having low sales in Japan. Low sales are better than no sales.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Mike Jones
Chance: 10%
While very unlikely, the fact that he’s western-exclusive actually helps his case, IMO. He has his own niche, within which he has no competition. If Sakurai wants to throw the west a bone (and he has done that once in a while), Mike fits the bill perfectly. Plus he’d be the perfect foil for Takamaru.

Want: 100%

Simon Belmont prediction: 15%
Konami, and the one two punch of Bomberman and Snake really don’t help him.

Noms: Prince SableX5

I'd rather see Blue Bowser get in over this kid.

Get off the internet please

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

Mike Jones
Chance: 1%
Want: 1%
Literally who? (Don't answer this)

Nominate Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Mike Jones
Chance - 5%
He gets a little chance if Sakurai decides to do a "West" and "East" type double retro addition. With this possibly being Takamaru's big debut, maybe Mike Jones would be added as the Western guy. Besides that? Nothing is really in his favor.
Want - 40%
Takamaru is the retro guy that I want to see hands down. But I also think Mike Jones could be interesting, and he is better than spin off LoZ anime waifus or more FE swordsmen/women. Part of me would be alright if we got a handful of retros or someone from every console generation. I mean that could be pretty cool instead of shoe-horning in some random side characters for series already well represented.

Nominations 5x Pikmin Newcomer

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Chance and Want: 0%
Takamaru was left out twice because of being a region exclusive (and thus an obscure retro even more the norm for retro characters) retro. Why the hell would Mike Jones get in if someone equally as irrelevant (AT WORST, I might add) failed to?

Simon Belmont Prediction: 20%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Mike Jones

Chance: 5%
His game is old and pretty obscure.

Want: 10%
I can't, for the life of me, understand the hype for this game. It's not bad, but I just can't grasp why some people like it so much.

Simon Belmont prediction: 30%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Mike Jones

Chance: 0.5%
Want: 1%

He's really, really obscure, and not to mention very western based.

Simon Belmont Prediction: 28.77%

Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Deleted member]

I have a rough month ahead of me, so I probably won't be able to post for a while (specifically until E3 but that's more of a free day than a return).
However, I want to be present on Mimikyu's day because I have some things to say about it, so can someone send me a PM on Discord when that happens? My tag is on my profile.

Don't ignore this pls

 

[Erureido]

Double abstain

------

Predictions

Simon Belmont (Castlevania): 18.92%

One of Konami's most iconic characters, but then there's the issue of Konami itself.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[NintenRob]

Mike Jones
Chance 0%
Want 2%
Western exclusive, not that interested

Simon Belmont prediction 24%

Nominate the iconic Lara Croft x5

 

[Ura]

The Star from the Tropics!

Chance: 3%

I have no delusions about Mike's chances even though he would make for an awesome character. His series went MIA in the NES era as has since never returned which is very unfortunate as the series had so much potential for growth and innovation.

Unlike other cult-classic characters like Geno, Mike also doesn't have the popularity needed to by pass the relevancy crap needed to get in to Smash so that hurts him even more.

Want: 100%

I never thought anything of this franchise until I was properly introduced to Startropics on the Wii U Virtual Console. The game is super addictive and gives it's own take on the whole Zelda formula (i.e. items that don't carry over from dungeon to dungeon and an emphasis on action, quick-time inputs rather than puzzle solving). I haven't even finished the game yet and all I was thinking while playing is why this series never went past the NES-era.

I was also pretty shocked to see the plethora of items Mike is able to use in the game that could very easily translate to Smash. Don't want to get to all of them now but just see for yourself all the different weapons he could use from Startropics 1 alone. His Yo-Yo could be used in a way where it starts off strong but gets weaker the more Mike uses it in battle. Or maybe even it starts out as a Shooting Star/Super Nova but the more Mike gets damaged it'll become the weaker Yo-Yo instead.
Lastly, his aesthetic as a Western character would be a very nice contrast to most of the cast sort of similar to in a sense. He could have both his Startropics 1 and 2 designs as his alts.

He would also be the first character in Smash to have a pause animation. The moment the player presses pause, Mike will hold up this sign all the while grinning.

You can't tell me you don't want this.

Prediction: Simon Belmont

Chance: 21%
Want: 48%

Nominations

Masked Link X 5

 

[Organization XIII]

Today we got Mike Jones. No not the rapper. The hero of Startropics, the cult classic NES game only released in North America. Please rate him in chance and want. Also please predict the scores for Simon Belmont tomorrow.

Startropics was released in EU as well. It isn't North American exclusive like Tin Star.

Chance: 2%
It'll take a miracle for Mike to get into Smash. The only way I see it happening is if Sakurai reverses his stance on Japanese only characters and decides to add Mike along with said Japanese only character so as not to alienate the west.

Want: 100%
I am noticing a trend that if people don't know a character they seem very opposed to them well my friends you are missing out because StarTropics is awesome. I've seen some people claim people want Mike purely for a retro character, and no that's dumb we want Mike because both games were awesome and we'd love to play as him in Smash. Unforutaly he may never get that chance since the part of Nintendo that made StarTropics became hardware (which is also why we didn't get another Punch-Out until the Wii when a new company took a stab at the series) so it seems he's destined to be another in a long line of Nintendo shelved ips. At least we still have those awesome first two games.

noms: RayX5