Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

Nominatiiiiion updateeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Spoiler: Nominations: post Marth/Roy speaking Black Shadow, pre-Doge

Funky Kong x262
KOS-MOS x241
Sans x238
Spyro x233
Agumon x231
Azura x229
Urban Champion x225


Over 200:

Mimikyu x222
Dark Samus x219
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x214
Sylux x212
Travis Touchdown x209
Mipha x208
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x205
Masked Link x201

199-150

Pyra/Mythra x192
Kamek x188
Gengar x186
Tom Nook x184
Parabo & Satebo x174
Lip x171
Concept: Skyrim representation x170
Cranky Kong x163
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Wonder Red x146
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x139
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x138
Excitebiker x138
Linkle x135
Neku Sakaruba x134
Papyrus x133
Lloyd Irving x125
Thwomp x123
Tsubasa Oribe x115
Sakura Shinguji x113
Fawful x111
Sable Prince x111
Octoling x110
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x110
Tetra x109
Katrielle Layton x107
Tingle x101

99-75

Slippy Toad x95
Steve x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x86
Barbara x77
Fjorm x75
Django x75
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x75


74-50

Veronica x73
Klonoa x71
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x70
Labo related character x68
Scorpion x68
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x63
Zeraora (Pokémon) x62
Starfy x62
Arcade Bunny x60
Lara Croft x57
Returning game mode: Smash Run x54
Ray x53
Gooey x52
Balloon Fighter x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Stage: New Donk City x50


49-30:

DeMille x48
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Tora & Poppi x45
Primarina x45
Toon Zelda x45
Leon Kennedy x45
Veteran: Corrin x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Dragonite x37
Slime x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Tails x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Snorlax x29
9-Volt x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x25

24 and less:

Concept: Female Announcer x20
Louie x20
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x16
[Rerate] King K. Rool x15
Concept: Monster Hunter character x15
T-Rex x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Joker x10
Yu Narakumi x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x5
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x5
Masked Man x3
Black Mage x3
Concept: Boss Battles x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

The top 7 goes all over the place. KOS-MOS moves ahead of Sans in 2nd. Spyro went from 7th to 4th. Azura leapfrogs Urban Champion to stay 6th.
Masked Link breaks 200 noms
Sable Prince and Tingle break 100 noms
Barbara, Django, and Bowser/DK/Diddy canon voice clips break 75 noms
Balloon Fighter and New Donk City break 50 noms
FE Switch Protagonist breaks 25 noms
New additions: Boss Battles (x3), and Concept: Multiple Voice Actor Option (x5)

I'm going to ask something unorthodox and I'll understand if this is declined .

TCT~Phantom
Wyoming

Can I swap my Lara Croft and Parabo and Satebo nominations around?

I'm the only one who has nominated these characters so it wouldn't really be unfair to anyone. The reason I want to do this, is because if Lara Croft was in the game, she'd likely be revealed at E3 while if Satebo and Parabo were in the game, they'd be hidden characters kept secret until release.

I'll go with no since:

a) I know that other people voted Lara
b) I am unsure if others voted for Parabo & Satebo, nor do I wanna go through its 174 nominations
c) will give crazee people like Llort A. Ton precedence to dump all his Thwomp noms into someone else

It's fairly easy to make a case for a character and make it rise up. Look at Mimikyu and Tom Nook. They were nowhere near the top, now chances are Mimikyu will be rated next week and Tom Nook the next. Lara definitely could get momentum considering her status as a video game character imo.

 

[BluePikmin11]

So I have a question now, check these two sources:

https://www.nowgamer.com/pokemon-in-super-smash-bros-how-theyre-selected/

“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company,” explained designer Masahiro Sakurai when we put the question to him. “What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front."

“For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.

“But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”

http://www.gameinformer.com/b/featu...ole-absences-twitch-and-super-smash-bros.aspx

"I’ve been playing a ton of Smash Bros. lately, as I’m sure everybody has. How involved are you are in the selection of the Pokémon who make it in the game? How did Greninja get into the game?

Even since the very first Smash Bros., it’s been Mr. Sakurai coming to us with ideas saying, “If we put this Pokemon in this game – in Smash Bros. – we’d be able to show it off in a really cool way and do something really cool with it.” The origin comes from Mr. Sakurai. We typically go with what he wants to do because he’s really thinking of not just showing off the character in a cool way, but making sure it makes sense and works really well from a gameplay perspective. We leave it up to him."

Are these pieces of info contradictory? The former is the older article explaining the details of how Pokemon are selected. And then we have the latter newer article, to which Masuda explains that Sakurai is free to choose whoever he wants. Are the approaches actually different with The Pokemon Company and Game Freak being different companies? Does Sakurai consult Game Freak right after the Pokemon Company? Is Game Freak more of a spectator/moderator when Sakurai approaches them for a Pokemon idea? Is The Pokemon Company an actual big influence at all?

 

[Delzethin]

If I may...

Lycanroc, Feral Earthbender

I've had a lot of thoughts about this one since the Rockruff line caught my attention way back in June 2016. I've said many times that Lycanroc was getting written off for Smash Switch the way Robin was for Smash 4, and used what evidence I can find to reinforce that. Fortunately, it seems like now I'm not the only one who's been noticing. The basic points have been laid out already, so let's take this in a bit of a different direction:

If you take out all expectations or preconceived notions...which current Pokémon has the most compelling case to be chosen for Smash?

As we've established already, Sakurai and his team look at the big picture when they choose new mons to bring in. They consider who is prominent across the entire franchise in the generation they're looking at, who will be prominent by the time the Smash game in question is far in development, what unique or compelling abilities they have, and what new ideas they'd bring to an ever-growing roster. Since the roster was probably ironed out in mid-2016, just a few months before Sun & Moon were released, this would not have been the same situation as Greninja--the designs and lore for all of Gen 7's mons would've all been finished by then, meaning there'd have been no need to stick a placeholder in and come back later.

Now consider what we're looking at here: a highly prominent non-starter in the vein of Lucario and Zoroark in just about every way other than featuring in a movie. All three Lycanroc forms have had strong presence in Gen 7, with the Dusk form in particular standing out due to being Ash's signature mon this generation like Greninja was in the last. To give you an idea of how big a deal TPC thinks these guys are, not only was Dusk Lycanroc the first new form announced for USUM--and the first major news regarding the games we got at all--the damn thing had multiple pieces of merchandise announced for it mere hours after its reveal!

Mind you, this doesn't mean TPC would force Lycanroc onto Sakurai and demand he make it happen. Character choices aren't as cutthroat as we make them out to be; odds are, Sakurai and the devs were given a handful of mons to choose from that were going to be prominent. But what this does mean is that Lycanroc would absolutely have been among them.

But it's not just about who'll be relevant or important: every newcomer (clones aside) needs to bring something new and fresh to the roster. Despite the talk about how "Sakurai can make anyone work", character concepts are actually a pretty integral part of the selection process! We saw this front and center with Smash 4, where Chrom ended up getting shelved because they couldn't find a way to not make him feel like a retread of what Marth and Ike already did.

Now consider what we're looking at here: what amounts to an earth-elemental fighter and a roster where that entire elemental niche is wide open. The closest we have is Charizard's down special and down smash! Mastery over an element that Smash hasn't tapped into yet is enough to make a character very compelling. And that isn't even getting into how the Midday and Dusk forms are quadrupeds, which would make for an even more unique moveset on a roster where the only other one is basically a walking cartoon character. Or how Ash's Lycanroc has a special berserk state that could be worked in to add some dynamic elements!

So...where does Decidueye sit amidst all of this? Well, Decidueye also has prominence due to being a starter, and its own unique niche due to being a Grass type when the roster doesn't have anyone with plant powers either. But because of that, the vast majority of speculators haven't bothered to look beyond Decidueye when another, equally compelling option has been right there the entire time.

In fact, there're smaller details where Lycanroc might actually have the upper hand! While Pokémon characters in Smash are ostensibly based on the games, they do take inspiration from the anime...and it says something that Ash's Lycanroc has stood above and beyond his Alola team so far (and is in the middle of a personal character arc that seems to be leading toward learning to control that aforementioned berserk state), while Ash's Rowlet hasn't even evolved once yet, much less twice to Decidueye. Or what about Gen 8 on the horizon no later than next year? There'll be a big name Grass type every generation, but this is the most prominent Rock type we've ever seen, and if they pass on it now, there's no telling when they'll get a chance to work with that element again. This kind of pragmatic decision is one of the reasons Corrin and his/her half-dragon shapeshifting powers got in through DLC. In a vacuum, Decidueye and Lycanroc are neck-and-neck, but the big picture may actually make the latter the more compelling choice.

With the combination of heavy prominence in the games, a starring role in the anime, and an extremely unique combination of build and elemental powers, Lycanroc is a legitimate possibility that should not be slept on just because it isn't the first one that comes to mind.

Chance: 70%

And that's my admittedly biased take on it. I've been invested in what this line could bring to Smash for a year and a half now. The combination of appealing design (Midnight aside, which I'm more neutral on), a unique element, and (Midnight aside) actually portraying wolves as something other than bloodthirsty for once struck a chord with me. I've noticed things that others haven't in the past, and...who knows, maybe this is another one of them.

Want: 100%

Not sure who to nominate yet. I'll edit it in later. Alright, got it.

Nominations: Breidablik Item x10

Let's see people's thoughts on Fire Emblem getting its own summoning item.

 

[Wyoming]

For falling behind the past week, today everyone gets an extra five noms. Use them wisely.

 

[Roberk]

Lycanroc (Dusk Form)

Chance: 90%
Y'all are sleeping on this dog. Passed out, unconscious, comatose. He's by far the most likely Pokemon rep overall for this iteration of Smash. Anime presence has always been a huge factor in determining Pokemon reps. Pikachu, Jigglypuff, Mewtwo, Lucario, Charizard, Greninja, all of these Pokemon were heavily promoted by The Pokemon Company and played huge roles in the show before their Smash debut. Some people think that this will only apply to the new Gen 8 right around the corner, but Gen 7 is still kicking. Anime relevance and promotion is what is going to decide which Gen 7 rep makes it. (To any saying Gen 7 won't get a rep while Gen 8 will, we know nothing about Gen 8 and it's not even confirmed to be 2018/at E3.)

Lycanroc is Ash's ace in the whole, the star of the show. This heavily contributes to his chances (see: Greninja and Charizard). He's heavily promoted by TPC and TPC is very selective about which Pokemon gets in. Decidueye won't get in because us fans want a grass rep, TPC will have their pick for Gen 7 calculated and Lycanroc is just the mon that they would choose.

Also, Mimikyu fans, I just can't see it. Mimikyu fits so much more as a Pokeball Pokemon: have it come out, do a few ghost/fairy attacks and that's fine. Just because Sakurai can be strained "really creative" to make a moveset in the past doesn't mean he should. Lycanroc lends itself to a moveset much more IMO.

Want: 100%
Give me a cool/good dog to play as I'm all for that. Lycanroc looks pretty neat with his moveset potential.

Also, more quadrupeds are cool.

Mike Jones Prediction: 10%

Noms: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x10

 

[NintenRob]

Nominatiiiiion updateeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Spoiler: Nominations: post Marth/Roy speaking Black Shadow, pre-Doge

Funky Kong x262
KOS-MOS x241
Sans x238
Spyro x233
Agumon x231
Azura x229
Urban Champion x225


Over 200:

Mimikyu x222
Dark Samus x219
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x214
Sylux x212
Travis Touchdown x209
Mipha x208
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x205
Masked Link x201

199-150

Pyra/Mythra x192
Kamek x188
Gengar x186
Tom Nook x184
Parabo & Satebo x174
Lip x171
Concept: Skyrim representation x170
Cranky Kong x163
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Wonder Red x146
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x139
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x138
Excitebiker x138
Linkle x135
Neku Sakaruba x134
Papyrus x133
Lloyd Irving x125
Thwomp x123
Tsubasa Oribe x115
Sakura Shinguji x113
Fawful x111
Sable Prince x111
Octoling x110
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x110
Tetra x109
Katrielle Layton x107
Tingle x101

99-75

Slippy Toad x95
Steve x95
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x86
Barbara x77
Fjorm x75
Django x75
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x75


74-50

Veronica x73
Klonoa x71
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x70
Labo related character x68
Scorpion x68
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x63
Zeraora (Pokémon) x62
Starfy x62
Arcade Bunny x60
Lara Croft x57
Returning game mode: Smash Run x54
Ray x53
Gooey x52
Balloon Fighter x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Stage: New Donk City x50


49-30:

DeMille x48
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Tora & Poppi x45
Primarina x45
Toon Zelda x45
Leon Kennedy x45
Veteran: Corrin x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Dragonite x37
Slime x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Tails x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Snorlax x29
9-Volt x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x25

24 and less:

Concept: Female Announcer x20
Louie x20
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x16
[Rerate] King K. Rool x15
Concept: Monster Hunter character x15
T-Rex x12
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x10
Joker x10
Yu Narakumi x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Solaire x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x5
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x5
Masked Man x3
Black Mage x3
Concept: Boss Battles x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

The top 7 goes all over the place. KOS-MOS moves ahead of Sans in 2nd. Spyro went from 7th to 4th. Azura leapfrogs Urban Champion to stay 6th.
Masked Link breaks 200 noms
Sable Prince and Tingle break 100 noms
Barbara, Django, and Bowser/DK/Diddy canon voice clips break 75 noms
Balloon Fighter and New Donk City break 50 noms
FE Switch Protagonist breaks 25 noms
New additions: Boss Battles (x3), and Concept: Multiple Voice Actor Option (x5)



I'll go with no since:

a) I know that other people voted Lara
b) I am unsure if others voted for Parabo & Satebo, nor do I wanna go through its 174 nominations
c) will give crazee people like Llort A. Ton precedence to dump all his Thwomp noms into someone else

It's fairly easy to make a case for a character and make it rise up. Look at Mimikyu and Tom Nook. They were nowhere near the top, now chances are Mimikyu will be rated next week and Tom Nook the next. Lara definitely could get momentum considering her status as a video game character imo.

Very well. Then I'll get started on nominating her and hope others take pity on me with their nominations

But first my scores

Lycanroc
Chance 40%
He faces a bit of competition but he definitely has his own merits to get in. I don't think he's the most likely Gen 7 Pokemon. But he's certainly up there
Want: 55%
I'd prefer other Pokemon but I'd still be cool with Lycanroc


Prediction Mike Jones: 2%

Now for the nomination

Lara Croft x10

I'm trying to rise her to the top before E3 because if by some miracle she is in the game, she would likely be revealed there. With the icon she is, I think she features a decent shot. Which why I especially want her rated.

 

[Arcanir]

So I have a question now, check these two sources:

https://www.nowgamer.com/pokemon-in-super-smash-bros-how-theyre-selected/

“Well first of all, we talk with the Pokemon company,” explained designer Masahiro Sakurai when we put the question to him. “What’s the hot Pokemon? What Pokemon are in the movies right now? And really do a lot of research on that front."

“For example, X and Y are coming out – of course, we haven’t done any market research because they’re not out yet, but we look at the animated series or movies and anything like that and again, find out which ones are going to be central to any of conversations in Pokemon going forward.

“But it’s not just that – going back to just what we talked about, what’s unique about them? Where do they fit in with the rest of everything else? What do they have? It’s a combination of those things.”

http://www.gameinformer.com/b/featu...ole-absences-twitch-and-super-smash-bros.aspx

"I’ve been playing a ton of Smash Bros. lately, as I’m sure everybody has. How involved are you are in the selection of the Pokémon who make it in the game? How did Greninja get into the game?

Even since the very first Smash Bros., it’s been Mr. Sakurai coming to us with ideas saying, “If we put this Pokemon in this game – in Smash Bros. – we’d be able to show it off in a really cool way and do something really cool with it.” The origin comes from Mr. Sakurai. We typically go with what he wants to do because he’s really thinking of not just showing off the character in a cool way, but making sure it makes sense and works really well from a gameplay perspective. We leave it up to him."

Are these pieces of info contradictory? The former is the older article explaining the details of how Pokemon are selected. And then we have the latter newer article, to which Masuda explains that Sakurai is free to choose whoever he wants. Are the approaches actually different with The Pokemon Company and Game Freak being different companies? Does Sakurai consult Game Freak right after the Pokemon Company? Is Game Freak more of a spectator/moderator when Sakurai approaches them for a Pokemon idea? Is The Pokemon Company an actual big influence at all?

I wouldn't say it's contradictory, GF and TCPi are separate entities with equal power and control in the franchise. The former handles the mainline games themselves while the latter handles marketing, spin-offs, and the like. So while GF could be very hands-off when it comes to Sakurai's choices since they are fellow developers and probably don't have that much influence in promotion, TCPi would be the opposite and more controlling since they are more associated with marketing and trying to push the brand. So when Sakurai is looking into how promotion is going, TCPi would be the one to talk to since they have influence over that part of the franchise, and that could lead to a more... influential nature over Sakurai's choices vs. GF.

 

[Delzethin]

I wouldn't say it's contradictory, GF and TCPi are separate entities with equal power and control in the franchise. The former handles the mainline games themselves while the latter handles marketing, spin-offs, and the like. So while GF could be very hands-off when it comes to Sakurai's choices since they are fellow developers and probably don't have that much influence in promotion, TCPi would be the opposite and more controlling since they are more associated with marketing and trying to push the brand. So when Sakurai is looking into how promotion is going, TCPi would be the one to talk to since they have influence over that part of the franchise, and that could lead to a more... influential nature over Sakurai's choices vs. GF.

Well, it's even more complicated than that. The Pokémon Company International is jointly owned by Nintendo and Game Freak for the purpose of handling the franchise, and so TPCi is technically part of Game Freak.

For what it's worth, Sakurai and Junichi Masuda are pretty buddy-buddy. They even hung out and got dinner a couple weeks back, apparently. While I don't think that particular meeting was Smash-related, it does mean the two sides here appear to be on good terms.

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance:33%
He along with Decidueye and Mimikyu are tied for entry.

Want: 0%
I don't particularly for him

noms: Ray x 10

 

[CometX-ing]

Lyconroc
Chances: 20%
He doesn't have a movie, and isn't a starter. Going by prior picks (disregarding 64) that seems to be the best way to get a spot. Mewtwo had a movie, Lucario had a movie, Greninja was a starter and chosen prior to his games release. Pokemon Trainer is a bit of an outlier here. You could argue that Lyconroc has the same going for him with being chosen based on concept art, or that he would be an outlier like Pokemon Trainer, but I doubt he will get that lucky, especially when the starters have designs that are honestly more interesting than Lyconroc. Even if you count popularity you have Rowlette, Mimikyu, Primarina and Alolan Vulpix who beat him out. I could see Marshadow or like I said any of the starters but Lyconroc.

Want: 0%
I don't have any strong connection to Lyconroc, he really never interested me even in SuMo. I honestly want Primarina as the SuMo rep (type representation be damned). That said...

Nominations:
Primarina x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Lyconroc
Chances: 20%
He doesn't have a movie, and isn't a starter. Going by prior picks (disregarding 64) that seems to be the best way to get a spot. Mewtwo had a movie, Lucario had a movie, Greninja was a starter and chosen prior to his games release. Pokemon Trainer is a bit of an outlier here. You could argue that Lyconroc has the same going for him with being chosen based on concept art, or that he would be an outlier like Pokemon Trainer, but I doubt he will get that lucky, especially when the starters have designs that are honestly more interesting than Lyconroc. Even if you count popularity you have Rowlette, Mimikyu, Primarina and Alolan Vulpix who beat him out. I could see Marshadow or like I said any of the starters but Lyconroc.

Want: 0%
I don't have any strong connection to Lyconroc, he really never interested me even in SuMo. I honestly want Primarina as the SuMo rep (type representation be damned). That said...

Nominations:
Primarina x10

Pokémon Trainer was three starters. Hardly an outlier.

 

[smileMasky]

Lycanroc

Chance: 1%

Don't see him as a playable only as a pokeball assist

Want 0%
Have not played any of the New Pokemon games. Only untill omega ruby sorry.

Nomination Django x10

 

[wildvine47]

Lycanroc

Chance: 25% - People have brought up some very good points regarding this doggo, but I'm not 100% convinced. First, yes, it's been promoted in the anime, just like all the other Pokemon reps. You know who else got pretty heavy promotion? Zoroark. And we all know how that one turned out. Lycanroc strikes me far more as a Zoroark situation than a Lucario one.

Lucario got a movie to help make it popular at the turn of Gen 4, got pushed as a big deal and it's popularity caught on. Game Freak tried to recapture that bottled lightning by repeating the same process with Zoroark, who promptly fell on it's edgy furry face. Lycanroc didn't get a movie, but yes, it has been pushed in the anime. But, like Zoroark before it, it's in no way lighting the world on fire with it's popularity like Lucario or even Greninja did. Most people are indifferent towards pebble pup, and a non-ignorable faction of people were none too pleased when the hyped up "third form" for the mon ended up just being a dorito-dusted day dog with one extra fur tuft. I mean if you need proof, look at today's scores compared to Decidueye's. There's a pretty big disparity between starter popularity and pewter pooch popularity.

Not only that, but we know for a fact that Sakurai chose Greninja well before any anime focus for it could take place. Hell, Ash's Froakie hadn't even become a Frogadier in the anime by the time Greninja was revealed, let alone picked for the roster. Check the dates for yourself if you don't believe me. Up to that point, Greninja wasn't particularly more promoted than either of it's two counterparts, which is part of why it's reveal was such a shock. Greninja was chosen for it's moveset potential and striking design, not it's planned anime focus. And when you look at Decidueye, Lycanroc, and their abilities next to each other, it's clear who's the winner in that regard. Bright-colored spectral plant archer bird beats out dull brown/ugly orange rock dog any day of the week.

Finally, Lycanroc would have a number of inherent design and animation problems solely by the fact that it's quadrupedal. Duck Hunt can get away with things by being cartoony, and Ivysaur had vines to fill in for hands, but how is Lycanroc going to use a Super Scope? Or carry a barrel? Or swing a hammer? It's not an impossible task, of course, but it'd require more effort than most characters to not look incredibly silly or dumb. And since this is Masahiro "How would Excitebiker jump" Sakurai, I can easily see him turning away an option due to a character being incompatible with something as integral to Smash as items.

The anime has, in the past, been a defining part in how Pokemon characters are chosen for Smash Bros. But it's not the be-all end-all for Pokemon, as Brawl's Trainer shows, and I feel it's more likely than not that we'll see that happen again here. There's definitely a margin of error within which I could be wrong or that we'll get two Gen 7 mons, but I think Decidueye still takes this particular cake.

Want: 35% - Lycanroc is a perfectly fine Pokemon, but it's not the kind of Pokemon I'd want to rep the entirety of Gen 7 on it's own. If we're, as people have theorized before, looking at a Chrom/Robin scenario, I'd much rather Lycanroc get nixed over Decidueye. If we get both I'd have no complaints, but I'd much, MUCH rather see the more promising Decidueye get added if it comes down to the wire. Also, Midnight Lycanroc is hideous and pretty much designed to be a furbait mon, so I'd like Smash to indulge as little of that crowd as possible.

Predictions

Mike Jones: 4.28% chance for the character, 100% chance that someone will start their post with an unfunny joke regarding/rating the rapper instead

Nominations

Scorpion x 10

 

[andimidna]

Lycanroc:
I was gonna score lower, but people made some good points. I’m pretty sure Decidueye will be in the anime eventually once Rowlet evolves, right? That’s not something I know anything about. Normally I’d say it matters more who people actually wanna play as, but not many people were actually requesting Greninja. However, that probably has more to do with not believing it was possible to get an X and Y character based on timing, so with seemingly no hope there wasn’t a push for it. He definitely was the most popular at the time. I don’t think Lycanroc is nearly in Greninja’s level, is he? I mean, not Decidueye either. But in terms of being requested, Decidueye definitely wins there. There is always the possibility of Rowlet himself, who knows. This isn’t easy to rate, but since there’s multiple feasible options for what’s very unlikely to be 2 new characters and only 1, I’d say somewhere below 50 makes sense...
Chance: 28%
A really high score for me btw
Hm in terms of designs I’d give-
Rockruff 9/10
Day 6/10
Midnight 0/10 so ugly and edgy and verlisify-y eww
Dusk 5.5/10
Want: 10%
I loved a lot of characters in this game. Primarina, Decidueye, Mimikyu, Alolan Exeggutor, Alolan Ninetails, Alolan Raichu, etc
If he had floating rocks and utilized all 3 forms in his moveset that’d distract me from the misfortune of having to look at the midnight form, imo one of the worst in the series
Plus, it’d be really cool to have a character that was directly affected by the stage environment. Like, as Battlefield switched to day, you’d turn into the day form or smth idk. Probably just an aesthetic thing so you wouldn’t be barred from playing how you want on certain stages idk

Mike pred: 4%

x8 FE Summoner
x1 Sylux so he can get closer to a double day w D Samus
x1 Lara Croft bc that one guy couldn’t switch lol

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Can Ly Roc?

Chance- 15%
I'm not too big on gen 7 pokemon, so while I know I may be underestimating this character, but I haven't seen hardly and advertisement for this character from Pokemon company if at all. Maybe I'm not looking in all the right places, but I figure TPC and Nintendo would be more in my face if they wanted to push this character.

Want- 40%
I don't see anything wrong with him, they could add any gen 7 pokemon and I'd be indifferent, but I think Buzzswole or Decidueye could prove more interesting.

Micheal- 6.23%

Scorpion X 8
Thwomp X 2

c) will give crazee people like Llort A. Ton precedence to dump all his Thwomp noms into someone else

Y'know what, you're right. Thwomp is just a ludicrous character, and i've been wasting precious e-votes on him all this time. I'd like to change all 125 Thwomp votes to a much more likely and deserving character; Blue Thwomp.

He's everything that we love about Blue Bowser and Thwomp combined into one lovely abomination!

 

[Lord-Zero]

Lycanroc

Chance: 45%

- The anime is definitely helping it, especially Dusk form.

Want: 0%

- It’s not Decidueye, Bewear nor a Tapu. No thanks.

Prediction

Mike Jones: 2.3%

Nomination

Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x10

 

[RandomAce]

I feel as if this day went a little bit overboard. Design wise Lycanroc is sort of, lackluster. I think they could’ve tooken the design further.

 

[BluePikmin11]

With wildvine47 's Lycanroc argument, it kinda makes me wonder if Sakurai was researching how people would react to each Pokemon in S/M in before the roster was possibly finalized in August 2016. When were Decidueye, Midnight, and regular Lycanroc revealed?

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Earth Bender Pupper

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

You know, it’s been a while since I looked into Pokémon... Who’s this now?

Pokémon’s always been a tough one to predict since there are always more of them, and only some get hyped to oblivion. The one thing I can say is that, as someone who’s not obsessively followed Pokémon recently, Lycanroc’s not made much of an impact. Greninja was not too much of a surprise - the Pokémon Company played up Gren like no tomorrow, and they kept going with him. Ditto Lucario (pun intended). But then again, so was Zoroark. Lycanroc however...got an orange form that wasn’t his shiny? Maybe they’re playing him up in the anime, but there’s not much hype I’ve seen as a casual Pokéfan - definitely not as much as Mimikyu.

And his midday form is so generic, his dusk form is a fluffy color swap, and his midnight form is the best looking of the bunch...which isn’t saying much at all. Ugh.

Besides, there’s a puppy in Smash already that I’d like to keep around and a quadrupedal Pokémon that should return with his bro before anythong else. Also, if I were going to put a canid Pokémon in the game, it’d be my OG favorite who deserves a lot more love than the Pokémon Company’s been giving him (Mega? Regional form? Signature move?)

Prediction for Mike: 2.1%
Nom: anything from Skyrim x10

 

[Kotor]

When were Decidueye, Midnight, and regular Lycanroc revealed?

September 20th for Lycanroc. October 27th for the starters.

The starter's final evolutions were leaked. I think around the summer that same year.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Lycanroc Chance - 3%: Lycanroc was generically advertised for Sun and Moon's Yellow version because there are barely any new Pokemon in that game. His new form was a generic recolor and had middling popularity as you'd expect. The more important thing is Ash has one in the anime, but he also has Rowlett anyway which will presumably become a Decidueye. Decidueye is in Pokken. Mimikyu is far more popular and acknowledged by Nintendo than this thing (and has a very prominent anime role also, which people tout as what makes Lycanroc relevant), let alone Decidueye.

Lycanroc Want - 2.5%: I don't like Decidueye so Lycanroc could block him, but at what cost? Lycanroc really isn't that great either. I prefer the design, but it comes across very bland for a Smash Bros fighter. The one form I kind of like and think could be an alright fighter is the night form, but that would never get in. I hate midday form for being a recolor. While night is the one that I want, I've also always found it incredibly offputting that design is pure rock. Really? That thing is the epitome of edge, how is there no dark/evil typing on it? I'm far from enthusiastic about it, and would just roll my eyes at midday/day Lycanroc.

Nominate Cranky Kong x10

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Lycanroc

Chance: 45%
It's getting a lot of attention from the anime as one of Ash's main Pokémon when he finally attends school for the first time in his 20+year life. Lycanroc was also a bit of a promotional force for getting people interested in USUM, with the introduction of a brand new Dusk Form.

Want: 40%
Eh, it's a decent Pokémon in it's own right. I prefer Decidueye or Mimikyu being the Sun/Moon Pokémon in Smash Bros, but if it ended up being Lycanroc, that's passable at least. AS LONG AS WE NEVER SEE STUNFISK.

Nominations:
Solaire X5
Yu Narukami X5

 

[Smasher 101]

Lycanroc

Chance: 40%

Personally feel over 50% for any specific gen 7 'mon is too high, given the competition and the high likelihood of only one getting in, but I've definitely been convinced that Lycanroc has more of a shot than I originally thought. Too tired to finish explaining tonight but I now think he's probably about even with at least Decidueye. Not truly sure about Mimikyu yet.

Want: 10%

On the flipside, this was originally going to be higher until I realized just how little I care about Lycanroc. Didn't use it much in Moon, Midday and Dusk forms personally bore me, Midnight obviously isn't great either, don't care about quadrupeds in Smash and have little interest in its potential. I mean I guess it's not a terrible choice overall, but personally I'd rather have either of his main competitors and then some.

Mike Jones prediction: 4.42%

Nominations: Tails x10

Because other people are nominating Tom Nook already and I think Tails definitely needs to be rated at some point.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Chance: 5%
Want: 10%

Mike Prediction: 3.11%

Lloyd Irving x10

 

[Delzethin]

I've noticed some people bring up the anime and how Greninja was chosen prior to any presence in the Kalos arc.

Thing is...consider how far ahead the anime must be planned out. With a project that huge and with so many moving parts among the staff, you basically have to think ahead to ensure you're able to prepare for and plan around any setbacks without the entire thing getting thrown off schedule. From a design standpoint, it only makes sense that they'd plan out what Ash's team would end up being over the course of the region.

I know Ash didn't have a Greninja yet when the reveal trailer came. Hell, Gen 6 as a whole was a long way from even starting when Greninja seems to have been picked out. But it's very plausible that the decision of who to consider for Smash was made with the knowledge of who would become a big name in the anime. And since Smash Switch started development a full year closer to Gen 7's launch than Smash 4 did for Gen 6's launch, it's very likely that TPCI had decided Ash's ace in Alola was going to be a Lycanroc by that point, which would've locked it in as someone to consider for Smash. Then Lycanroc's moveset potential and unique elemental niche would've made a strong argument from there.

It's nothing concrete, but the logic is straightforward.

 

[Deleted member]

Lycanroc
Chance 55%
Want- 55%
Personally not before decideye

Predictions-
Mike Jones 10%

Noms-
Tora and poppi x 5
Sable Prince x 5

 

[Pennate]

Lycanroc:

Chance: 20%

Want: 0%

Nominations:
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x5
Excitebiker x5

 

[VexTheHex]

Lycanroc

Chance - 35%
The attention the Pokemon has gotten does warrant some possibilities. I'm just not sure what about it will draw Sakurai and the team to it over other big names as it's rather on the bland side.
Want -15%
Mimikyu, Litten line, Rowlet line, Popplio line, Toucannon, Alola Raichu, Cutiefly line, Oricorio, Mareanie line, Mudbray line, Dewpider line, Fomantis line, Morelull line, Salazzle, Alola Marowak, Stufful line, Tsareena, Passimian, Wimpod line, Sandygast line, Type Null, Minior, Alola Sandslash, and the Jangmo-o line all interest me more overall.
Midday is boring.
Dusk is a recolor of the boring one.
Midnight has questionable design choices but at least it isn't as boring?

Rockruff is adorable though.

Nominations
5x Mimikyu
5x Pikmin Newcomer

 

[DaUsername]

Memedog
Chance: 55%
Want: 20%

Mike Jones prediction: 11%
Noms: New Donk City x10

 

[Erureido]

Lycanroc

Chance: 50%

It's one of Generation 7's most prominent Pokemon, being heavily promoted in the anime as one of Ash's signature Pokemon right now along with the fact Dusk Lycanroc even had a special event deal when USUM was first released. It even has the popularity. The main issue I feel that it suffers from is competition with the likes of other prominent Alola Pokemon like Decidueye, Incineroar, Mimikyu, Tapu Koko, and a few others.

Want: 75%

The Midday Form of Lycanroc is one of my top 10 favorite Pokemon, and it served me well in my experience using it in Sun. Though I haven't used the Dusk Lycanroc when it was released in USUM, I do like its design. Midnight Lycanroc on the other hand... not a fan of it at all.

So looking at three forms, I'd be cool with Midday or the Dusk Form being chosen but opposed to the Midnight Form. Even then, Lycanroc isn't my top pick for an Alola Pokemon rep. That title goes to Primarina.

------

Predictions

Mike Jones (StarTropics): 5.67%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x10

 

[TheDukeofDorks]

Lycanroc

Chance: 50%

Ticks off every credential that Sakurai looks for in Pokemon. Still tons of competition, but Lycanroc strikes me as the most likely Pokemon newcomer.

Want: 100%

Favorite Pokemon from Sun and Moon. Give me my rock puppy!

Noms: Tom Nook x10

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lycanroc
Chance: 35%
The dark horse, or rather wolf Pokemon option. He has the best chance of any quadraped Pokemon to date with his role in the anime. Of the three forms it'd stand to reason the Dusk form, aka, Ash's one, made the grade.

He does however have heavy competititon from Decidueye, whom Ash's Rowlett may actually evolve into eventually(but no guarantee), Mimikyu whom Jessie owns and Rowlett itself whom is barely ever talked about but has a slight chance.

Anime popularity and relevance isn't everything however otherwise Meowth would easily have been included in Smash by now...

Want: 55%
Last Pokemon game I played was Pokemon Y so I have absolutely no attachment to any of the Alola critters.

Honestly my issue with the Pokemon fighters in Smash is they quickly lose their relevance by next game.
Greninja already feels old hat, Jigglypuff became the most irrelevant Pokemon until very very recently since prominance in the anime is apparently important and Lucario wasn't even massively focused in the anime proper(at least not compared to Chimchar's line or Piplup) with nearly all it's relevance being movie exclusive, although Pokken and mega evolution revived it's importance and promotion for a while longer.

Pikachu and Charizard are about the only ones I can look at and say "yep, these are always in rotation and have kept their popularity and presence" and I get the feeling Lycanroc will be tossed aside the second the next generation comes out making it hard for me to care which Pokemon gets added since Smash will be the only factor keeping it relevant down the line as the Pokemon company abandons it completely from merch to promote the next hot thing.

50% for me is an indifference score for the record, Lycanroc manages to get an extra 5% because earthbending is a little interesting, even if his design is rather bland overall compared to other options. Also because it's slightly more interesting than the usual Decidueye vs. Mimikyu debate that is Sm4sh's Zoroark vs. Sceptile debate reskinned.

Predictions: Mike Jones: 2%
West only.

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summ-

....

You know what? Let's get some actually constantly promoted Pokemon in here. Call me a Genwunner if you like(although again I stopped at gen 6), but these guys always get promotion by the Pokemon company be it in anime, games or general merchandise:

Meowth X 5
Blastoise X 5

They'll obviously not do very well in RTC but I feel both of them are more important Pokemon overall than any inevitable flavour of the month mon we're going to end up with.

 

[NIckynickreviews]

Lycanroc

Chance: 10%
Want: 0%

Noms:
2B x5
Sypro x5

 

[Deleted member]

The alola Pokemon popularity poll is from February of 2018. There's no way it's gonna have any sort of influence on Smash whatsoever.
Just in case anyone brings this up in the future.

 

[ZealousGamer]

Lycanroc

Chance 15%: Not likely.

Want 10%: Don't really like it.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x

 

[ShinyRegice]

Lycanroc chances: 9.5%
Lycanroc is without a doubt one of the mascot Pokémon of generation 7, as evidenced by being one of Ash's Pokémon in the Sun and Moon anime and the things it got in USUM in the form of a new event form and an exclusive Z-move. It however faces the problem of having multiple forms that can't be swapped, and while one of them stands out due to being the one owned by Ash in the anime, it only came to existence one year after the other two. In addition, only one of these is bipedal and looks like it could easily lift an heavy item such as a crate; although it might be worked around if the other two carry it on their back. For these reasons I can imagine Sakurai seeing another Pokémon as being more workable for a Smash fighter, but it is still one of the three most likely gen 7 Pokémon to become playable imo.

Lycanroc want: 45%
I initially imagined giving it a lower want score than that, but after thinking about it it might be a better idea than I originally thought. I would like to see a playable generation 7 Pokémon in this new Smash, and although Lycanroc is not my prefered option, the moveset might still be interesting. I envision it as a character who's good in neutral when not to close to the opponent, capable of taking the advantage using ranged attacks and rushes thanks to moves like Stone Edge and Accelerock. Down B might be Counter, which would be... well, another counter, not really exciting, but it could be unique in the sense that it doesn't make the user invincible, just gives it super armor, and in counterpart is the more powerful counter in the game. I also find the prospect of a playble Pokémon in Smash having Stealth Rock in its moveset somewhat hilarious, I'd love to see the reaction of the Smogon crowd to that

Mike Jones prediction: 6.86%

Nominating:
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x4
Returning game mode: Smash Run x6

 

[Cosmic77]

I've noticed some people bring up the anime and how Greninja was chosen prior to any presence in the Kalos arc.

Thing is...consider how far ahead the anime must be planned out. With a project that huge and with so many moving parts among the staff, you basically have to think ahead to ensure you're able to prepare for and plan around any setbacks without the entire thing getting thrown off schedule. From a design standpoint, it only makes sense that they'd plan out what Ash's team would end up being over the course of the region.

I know Ash didn't have a Greninja yet when the reveal trailer came. Hell, Gen 6 as a whole was a long way from even starting when Greninja seems to have been picked out. But it's very plausible that the decision of who to consider for Smash was made with the knowledge of who would become a big name in the anime. And since Smash Switch started development a full year closer to Gen 7's launch than Smash 4 did for Gen 6's launch, it's very likely that TPCI had decided Ash's ace in Alola was going to be a Lycanroc by that point, which would've locked it in as someone to consider for Smash. Then Lycanroc's moveset potential and unique elemental niche would've made a strong argument from there.

It's nothing concrete, but the logic is straightforward.

That's something a lot of people are forgetting. Ash caught Rowlet in episode 4 (late November 2016) and Rockruff in episode 15 (late February 2017). Both were caught pretty early in the anime, so I think the writers had a vivid idea of what Pokemon would be relevant in the future. Even if Sakurai chose the Pokemon rep early as June 2016, I think enough of the foundation for the SuMo anime was laid out by then for TPCI to know who to suggest.

Now regardless of who Sakurai chose, I have a feeling TPCI would've started shoehorning the Pokemon he chose into the anime. Based off the show so far, I can make a case for Lycanroc. I can make a case for Mimikyu. If things are headed where I think they're going, I could even make a case for Incineroar. But Decidueye? That's a challenge.

The alola Pokemon popularity poll is from February of 2018. There's no way it's gonna have any sort of influence on Smash whatsoever.
Just in case anyone brings this up in the future.

Unless Sakurai really delayed his final decision, popularity likely won't be a key factor with the next Pokemon rep, or at least not with Decidueye and Lycanroc. Aside from the initial responses we had for the Pokemon revealed in the first few SuMo trailers, it was anyone's guess as to who would be well-received and who would be hated. All we really have to look at in terms of likeliness is the Pokemon's relevancy going forward and their own unique traits.

 

[Delzethin]

Unless Sakurai really delayed his final decision, popularity likely won't be a key factor with the next Pokemon rep, or at least not with Decidueye and Lycanroc. Aside from the initial responses we had for the Pokemon revealed in the first few SuMo trailers, it was anyone's guess as to who would be well-received and who would be hated. All we really have to look at in terms of likeliness is the Pokemon's relevancy going forward and their own unique traits.

Not only that, popularity can be such a fleeting thing that it isn't worth relying on anyway as a developer. It doesn't help that it gets misused a lot in speculation, as if to say a character should only be allowed in if the community already approves of it.

Reeks of gatekeeping, it does, and I've been on the receiving end of that enough in my life to have lost my taste for it. We need to be better than that.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Lycanroc
Chance: 20% - There’s not much I can say, but Lycanroc is one of the most heavily promoted gen 7 Pokemon and by extension one of the front runners for a Pokemon rep.
Want: 80%

Mike Jones prediction: 4%

Nominations: Azura x5

 

[MrElectroG64]

Lycanroc

Chances: 30%
Lycanroc's chances aren't half bad right now. He seems to be one of GameFreak's favorites right about now, puting him seemingly at odds with Incineroar (sadly, since neither are interesting), or Tapu Koko, who is the story important mon early in the game, something Sakurai will surely take note of, considering he said the only reason he kept Lucario around was because of his importance in the story of X and Y. Decidueye and Mimikyu don't stand a chance, as people are forgetting that the only thing those two have going for them is their popularity, and the roster was finalized at a time where no pokemon from gen 7 had a chance to gain any popularity yet.

Want: 10%
Eh, he'd be alright. Another bipedal fighter would be quite interesting, especially with something that is as long and doglike as Lycanroc, compared to DHD, who is so stubby and cartoony that it hardly counts. Now, that being said, the actual pokemon itself really isn't all that interesting. I mean, it really is just a dog in pokemon that has some spikes on it and does a little rock related stuff. There are so many better choices, like Buzzwole, Necrozma, or even the aforementioned Tapu Koko, so if the pokemon fighter ends up being lycanroc, I'd be pretty disappointing.

Nominations: Louie x5