Mike Jones
Chance: 1%
Eh, I'll give him 1%, he is a first-party retro rep so he's definitely possible, but that's it. I've already been convinced that Takamaru would be the most likely and best retro rep. Takamaru has been in both Japan and the West now and was only cut out for region-exclusivity, it's very probable that he is the most likely software retro rep at least. Also, Mike Jones has literally no presence in Japan, and it's not like he has a huge West presence to offset this. He's in a much worse situation than Takamaru pre-localization, Takamaru was recognized by the developers while Mike Jones likely wouldn't be. There are no real huge factors of popularity, relevance, moveset potential, or significance for Mike, he's just kind of there. I wouldn't be surprised if he is skipped over when retro reps make the jump to SNES.
Want: 60%
I don't really care either way, but I'll give him some credit because he seems neat. While Little Mac did accomplish this in Smash 4 with his West>East split, I'm still open to some characters pandering to good ol' Murica. His game his obviously based on Modern Western culture and aesthetic. Ness and Lucas are "boys", but they are weirdly proportioned and have PSi powers. Mike Jones looks cool in the sense that he would be a regular American boy fighting it out amongst all of these other outlandish characters. I get that people like how unrealistic the character designs are and how crazy it could get, but some realism can make that fantasy even more amazing. Little Mac kind of does this as well, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't have more of it.
Also, I like having characters that are obscure/I know almost nothing about. It makes Smash interesting as a means of discovery as opposed to a marketing campaign for all of the things I already know about. Maybe a Smash inclusion would get his series revived, I'm always open to reviving things.
Belmont Prediction: 20%
This word will probably be in every detailed rating tomorrow: Konami
Noms: Lara Croft x5