Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Wyoming]

I will be capping the nominations for the top 7 at midnight. I will do a calculation and once the top 7 is established you wont need to vote for them anymore.

Nominations are still welcome after that time but I will edit the post with an updated ranking after Belmont's day officially ends.

And now back to work...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Simon Says...Kill Vampires

Chance: 15%
Want: 35%

Older and yet established series both are major plusses for Belmont, but Konami's going to be problematic. Also, the idea of a whip-based moveset brings a lot that we don't have outside of a few select ZSS moves. (I'm probably one of the only people who enjoyed that Ivysaur/Olimar/ZSS had a tether up special in Brawl. It really made me happy to land those whips in combat - Ivy was a beast attacking characters above him - and be able to do those tether recoveries. I'm really bad with Link's clawshot, so I did like that they homed in on the ledge) Altogether, things are looking pretty good for Simon...at least as much as it can being a third party from a company that's committed to self-destruction. However, I'm sure that most of the fanbase's first choice for a Konami character would be Snake, and after that he's competing with Bomberman, so there is a bit of conflict there.

I'm not as opposed to Simon as I am to most 3rd parties in general. I've never played Castlevania, but the games do have a lot of history, and he has a cool aesthetic. Naturally, I'm hypocritical enough to prefer characters I'd know better - my first choice for a whip user would be Ivy from SoulCalibur, and I'll take Dovahkiin hands down if we wanted a barbarian-like character.

Prediction for Qbby: 8.94%
Nom: Skyrim representation x5

As a sidenote, since it was a topic of discussion yesterday - here's my criteria for rating:

Chance:

Above 90%: basically guaranteed, beyond Sakurai pulling something unexpected
above 50%: Exceptionally good chances
50%: 1:1 shot, mostly for highly requested newcomers or concepts that Sakurai may put in.
above 25%: 1:4 shot, standard score for a newcomer or concept since I can't really predict Sakurai (and he likes to be unexpected), so I tend to lowball
10%: 1:10, good chance for third-parties who may have unseen hurdles
below 10%: low chances due to obscurity or major bureaucratic issues
1%: lowest chance, basically not happening save Sakurai pulling something out of left field.
​

Want:

100%: Would make me really happy and I'd play it willingly
75%: A character or mode which sounds really interesting, but one I'm not specifically hoping for from the beginning. Definitely something I could see myself playing and enjoying though.
50%: Completely neutral. I'm not going to go out of my way to support it, but a character or mode which could be ok if I ended up with it.
25%: A character or mode which seems not to fit in Smash well, at least in my eyes. Would play it when randomly selected, but would not be sad not to have it in the slightest
0%: Not wanted. A character or mode that makes me roll my eyes because they seem generic/unfitting/boring in some way, and I would much prefer that the development time went to almost anything else.
​

I am much more excited about concepts in the first place. I feel characters will naturally end up at the "This character is obscure/third-party/whatever" after a while. Concepts may lead to much more interesting discussion, I feel.

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 10%
Konami is being weird these days but they aren't so stupid they wouldn't put a character they own in a huge popularity and ad generator like Smash. The only reason I don't see Simon making the cut is because I see Sakurai trying to get Snake back first. The man hates cuts as much as we do. He could negotiate both characters getting into Smash but I just don't think that will happen.

Want: 50%
I'm indifferent to the idea. I love Castlevania but Simon is far from my most wanted

noms: Ray X5

Although I kind of wish I could redo my Banjo Want score, I took way too many points off for him not being super iconic and for being western.

I mean why would that affect your want score in the first place, want has nothing to do with a character's ability to be realizable.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 25%
If we're getting a Konami rep, it's either him or Bomberman.

Want: 5%
I don't like Castlevania.

Qbby prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[NeonBurrito]

I mean why would that affect your want score in the first place, want has nothing to do with a character's ability to be realizable.

This seems like a fine time to talk about ratings, because it was a hot topic last night.

When I do 'want' chances, I generally try to base them on multiple factors, moreso than just how attached I am personally to the character. I'll ask things like "Do they bring something new to the table?" or "Do they come from a franchise that could use some more love in Smash?" I tend to be a bit harsher on 3rd party characters than usual as well, due to my general lack of interest in them, and I'll ask things like "How is their relationship with Nintendo: past and present?" along with "Could they be considered an iconic video game character? Would the average gamer recognize them?"

Using Banjo as an example, I have a good amount of personal attachment to him, but his current relationship with Nintendo isn't the best, due to being owned by a direct competitor, as well as how we already have a mammal and bird duo in Smash. Alongside this, Banjo is hardly a relevant character in terms of video games anymore, and I don't your average game would say that he's much of a video game icon, unless discussing 'Platforming Icons from the N64 / PSX Generation'.

Another good example of this would be Rex and Pyra. I think I gave them something akin to a 65% for my 'want' score in the past. I enjoyed Xenoblade 2 greatly and think that Xenoblade could easily make use of some more content in Smash, but I'm personally not all that fond of Rex and Pyra themselves. I try to find a good balance between both what I personally want, and something that would be unique and well deserved.

That's just how I do it. I understand 100% if anyone else votes based on other factors. I think everyone judges characters in a certain, unique way, and that's just one of the things that makes RTC and other speculation discussion so great.

 

[Deleted member]

He's easily the least likely of the three possible Capcom characters

Uhhhhhh.....


Well whatever.

I don't participate on this game anymore, but since this is my most desired character, i'll make an exception:

Simon Belmont.

Chance:1%

Yeah im pessimistic as hell, but i have my reasons:
-Konami is hard to work with, and we don't know if they are easy to approach now.
-Bomberman is much more likely based on recent events (new game that was a Swtich launch title and then became multiplatform)
-The Castlevania series is in a dire state, with the only things keeping it alive are the Netflix show and a mobile game.
-Third parties are hard to predict so they already get a -30% in chance score for me.

Want:OVER 9000% (or just 100%)

I'll be honest, most of these choices could swap places and there wouldn't be too much of a difference, but when i was making this top 10, Simon Belmont was already number 1, and i wouldn't have it any other way.

I love the Castlevania series, from it's humble begginings on the NES to the more animesque Metroidvanias on the DS, it's a franchise rich of lore, gameplay and music, with a very interesing cast of characters from the bishonen dark prince Alucard to the underapreciated agile pirate Grant Danasty to the adorable Maria Renard, but none of them are as important as Simon Belmont, the most renowed of Vampire Hunters, the most well known member of the Belmont Clan and one of Konami's most prominent mascots, appearing as the main Castlevania representative. Castlevania is a series that is prominent in gaming, is heavily remembered by fans of retro-gaming and most gamers that lived in the late 80's to late 90's.

His moveset is so damn easy to figure out, and the fact that he comes from a series of side-scrollers makes him much easier to implement in Smash's Platfrom Fighter gameplay. He could be a slow and heavy but powerful character that instead of relying on close ranged melee attacks, he instead will use the long-ranged weapon, the "Vampire Killer" which can be used diagonally (diagonal aerials and Smash-attacks everyone?) and can be engulfed in flames and even shoot fireballs. There's also his repertoire that includes daggers, cross-shaped Boomerangs, Holy Water that burn the enemies in place and sometimes travel a certain distance, axes he can throw in an arc, a time watch that allows him to slow or even outright stop time, etc.

The reason as to why i want is also the reason why i want Waluigi: Attachment to the character (and also the franchise).

Originally i just saw him as better "Konami Rep" than Snake, but as i grew older, i realized that was a stupid reason to desire a character (especially a guest character) and i also realized Snake was not that unfitting.

I grew a bigger connection to the Castlevania from my late Childhood-puberty years, and i loved almost every game that i played in the series, but none as much as Super Castlevania 4. I loved that game so much, i bought the SNES Classic specifically for that, alongside Kirby Super Star, A Link to the Past, Super Punch Out, DKC and Super Mario RPG.

Third Parties are at the end of the day, Guest characters. For me, adding any Third Party willy-nilly will damage the appeal and make it not as enjoyable. For me, a Guest has to be important, renowed and special, an icon of an era or the face of a longrunner series. I know that Simon is not on the same level as Sonic or Pac-Man, but for me, and many others, Castlevania is important, The series has sold 20 Million Copies, and while that is not so big compared to the sales of other franchises (like Dragon Quest or Kingdom Hearts or even Imagine for some ****ing reason) it's nothing to scoff at either. Not only that, for me, Simon Belmont is practically a Nintendo Character that unfortunately does not belong to Nintendo,, his game was released in the same year as important Nintendo franchises like Zelda and Metroid, and the series has been heavily assosiated with the Nintendo Consoles of old. He may not be as iconic as say Cloud, but he is to Castlevania to what Cloud is to Final Fantasy, the most renowed protagonist of the series that is capable of representing the franchise on his own completely.

I know my arguments may seem fallacious (and they probable are) and that Simon Belmont is not that requested, and i know that. I know the reality of the situation, im not expecting him to be in the game, and i feel that we will be lucky if we even get Snake back.

Simon Belmont in Smash is not a prediction, is not a guess, hell it's barely a request because i know it would be asking for the moon. Simon Belmont in Smash is a dream, a dream that will always be in head and in my heart.

.........i just hope the Netflix series doesn't **** up his portrayal (looking at you Judgement)

and with that, im done. No predictions or nominations since this is a one-time thing i'll do.

 

[Troykv]

My Chance scores usually goes in this way.

100% (Reserved for the Inklings, if Sakurai didn't put Inkling into game... Let's say... "Blood will rain" )
70~99% (These characters and concepts are in a perfect position to appear in the game, and are perfect choices for a obvious characters that would only don't appear for some random stuff).
51~69% (These characters and concepts are in a very good spot to appear thanks to their relevancy)
50% (Reserved for special cases that are lopsided, and need this kind of approach)
31~49% (These characters and concepts are in a good position to appear in the game, they're relevant but would have the problem of don't being main characters)
16~30% (These characters and concepts are in decent positions to appear in the game, essencially like the previous tier, but more overshadow; this is also the spot for the Third-Parties with good chances)
15% (This is my generic score for Decently Popular First-Parties Newcomers from living franchises that doesn't have the same benefits that the people in the previous tier; any Main Character from a Living Franchise it will at least have this chance rate)
6~14% (Characters in difficult sittuations, it's used for most of the uncommon but not illogical choices)
0.1~5% (Long Shots, applies mostly for characters from dead franchises that doesn't have iconicness)
0% (Special score for joke characters)

And my Want Scores

100% (My absolute and most wanted character in the whole universe; also used for my favorite veterans)
Above 70% (I like them a lot)
Above 50% (I like them)
50% (It would be a nice choices, but doesn't appeal to me in any particular way)
25~45% (Characters and concepts that gives me conflictive feelings)
1~24% (Underused, but it's mostly for unspired stuff that gives me conflicive ideas)
0% (This is uninspired, or/and makes me only feel negative feelings their existence in Smash)

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Simon Belmont want: 85%

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Simon

Chance- 25%
Bomber Man and Snake are sturdy opponents, but Castlevania was a significant srroes back on NES. Konami also exists.

Want- 40%
Castlevania was a fun game and it would be great to hear that kickass theme remastered

Qbby- 8.34%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[VexTheHex]

Simon
Chance - 15%
3rd party, Konami, competition with more relevant/popular 3rd parties, and the competition with Snake and Bomberman.
Want - 60%
Whip could be pretty cool, think he'd stand out well.

Nominations 5x Pikmin Newcomer

 

[nirvanafan]

Simon Belmont
Chances: 30%
If Konami gets back in I think Snake will be the rep chosen. After that I think Bomberman is more likely and then I just do not see a 3rd rep for Konami but there is still somewhat of a chance Simon can make it in over the other 2.

Want: 45%
Played a couple of games in the franchise, Not a big fan but I can respect the franchise and its popularity.

Nomination: Linkle X5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Not got much time now, so this is going to be super short;

Simon Belmont
Chance: 12%
KONAMI. But Castlevania was a big title associated with Nintendo so maybe...maybe not...

Want: 60%
Simon's a pretty big name....I'd just prefer Bomberman to him.

Predictions:
Qbby: 33%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Summoner X 5

 

[Yokta]

Spoiler: How I score Chance/Want

Chance:

100%

This character has already been confirmed for the new Smash Bros.
Examples: Mario, Inklings​

90%

This character has been a consistent part of the Smash Bros roster, so we can only assume that they're coming.
Examples: Marth, Captain Falcon.​

80%

This character is expected by most of the community, but aren't necessarily a shoe-in
Examples: Ice Climbers, Decidueye​

70%

This character has loads of support from hardcore fans and almost no barriers to entry, but still aren't popular enough for a guaranteed slot.
Examples: Wolf, King K. Rool​

60%

This character would be a pretty good fit for Smash, but it doesn't quite feel right to say that.
Examples: Waluigi, Spring Man​

50%

This character has as many reasons to fight in Smash as they do reasons to stay out of it.
Examples: Viridi, Isabelle​

40%

This character isn't an obvious choice at all, but they have a chance as the token out-of-left-field entry.
Examples: Crash Bandicoot, Rayman​

30%

This character is very low on the list of potential fighters, but they aren't worth ignoring yet.
Examples: Spyro, Banjo-Kazooie​

20%

This character has a surprising amount of support, but there are too many factors against them.
Examples: Rabbid, Sans​

10%

This character is technically eligible for a place in the Smash Bros roster, but that's about all they have going for them.
Examples: Mike Jones, GLaDoS​

0%

This character has been disqualified by Sakurai himself.
Examples: Anyone who didn't originate from a video game, anyone who hasn't appeared on Nintendo systems.​

Want:

100%

This character is Spyro the Dragon.
Examples: Spyro the Dragon​

90%

This character is very close to my heart and I will be beyond ecstatic to see them in Smash.
Examples: Crash Bandicoot, Wolf​

80%

This character would be satisfying to see join Smash at the end of a mid- to high-tier Nintendo Direct.
Examples: King K. Rool, Mewtwo​

70%

This character will be great to see in Smash, but they wouldn't be on my dream roster if I had to make any cuts.
Examples: Ice Climbers, Arle Nadja​

60%

This character isn't on my wish list, but something about them is unique enough to spark my interest.
Examples: Mike Jones, Spring Man​

50%

This character will get very little out of me beyond a passive nod of acknowledgement.​

Examples: Rex & Pyra, Decidueye

40%

This character isn't my cup of tea, but I'd be happy for their fans.
Examples: Marx, Doomguy​

30%

This character will irritate me at first, but eventually they'll blend in with the rest of the roster and I'll get over them.
Examples: Slippy, Jibanyan​

20%

This character will be painful to encounter online, but otherwise I can begrudgingly tolerate them.
Examples: Sans, Corrin​

10%

This character makes me mad, but at least I can get my money's worth by beating them up.
Examples: Tingle, Kaos​

0%

This character will convince me not to buy the new Smash game solely by their presence.
Examples: Pink Gold Peach, B. B. Bandit Trio​

So, Simon Belmont.

Chance: 29%
Want: 44%

Castlevania has eluded me so far, but from what I've heard Simon hasn't been a major player in the series since the Super Nintendo days. Maybe that's exactly what makes him suitable for Smash as opposed to Alucard, but I still don't fancy his chances in 2018.

Votes: +5 Breidablik

 

[Kitty-chan]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 10%
From the classic NES game and rather popular, but he faces competition from other more relevant Konami characters like Snake and Bomberman nya.

Want: 55%
I have nyo objections to him nya, but I don't really have any desire to see him nya... other than the fact that he has a whip nya. And flagellation warms my heart nya.

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Simon Belmont

Chance - 21% - Eh. I'll give him slightly less than Bomberman. I almost gave him the exact same score as Bomberman, but I think his new game is enough to give him a slight edge. Otherwise, I think they're in the same boat; both relatively iconic Video Game characters who compete with both each other and are held back by Snake and/or Konami.

Want - 75% - Yeah, I can get behind him. A whip based move set (ZSamus doesn't count) could be cool, and he has the history to give my approval.


Predictions

Qbby - 8.45% - Maybe a bit too quirky...


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Quetzal77]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 10%
Konami are jerks, etc., and I think Bomberman is the more likely of the two.

Want: 90%
-10% because I would much prefer Alucard or Soma Cruz as Castlevania reps though I recognize Simon is THE Castlevania rep, after him maybe one of the other two could get in if a miracle were to happen.

Qbby: 9.2%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x5

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Simon
Chance: 10%
Want: 75%

Prediction: Qbby
Chance: 12.19%
Want: 28.67%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[Cycrum]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 20%
Belmont and the Castlevania franchise as a whole have not seen much exposure for the past couple of years besides a Netflix series and an iOS app. This makes Simon somewhat relevant, but he still faces stiff competition from far more relevant and iconic Konami characters like Snake and Bomberman. Belmont's only advantages at this point are the relevancy he has from the Castlevania series on Netflix, Sakurai's love of the series itself, and Castlevania being an iconic series of games on Nintendo consoles.

Want: Abstain
I have never played Castlevania.

Prediction:
Qbby: 12.74%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

 

[Deleted member]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 3%
Konami. Also has to compete with Bomberman and Snake.

Want: 0%
Castlevania is scary.

Nominating KOS-MOS x2, Excitebiker x3

Qbby prediction: 11.66%

 

[Erureido]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 8%

Has some relevancy going for him with that new Netflix series, but Konami being Konami is still an issue. He even has to compete with other candidates from his own Konami, especially Snake with his veteran status.

Want: 50%

He'd be pretty cool for a whip-based fighter; Smash could use one of those. We'd also get some rockin' track good tracks from the Castlevania series like this one if he were added.

------

Predictions

Qbby (BOXBOY!): 10.22%

No comment.

------

Nominations

Corrin (Fire Emblem): x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 25%
Has to compete with a returning Snake and Bomberman, but he definitely deserves it being an NES classic and all.

Want: 100%
I love the Castlevania series, and Simon Belmont would be so unique and fun to use with whips, holy water, crosses, etc.

Qbby: 10.75%

x5 to Azura

 

[Deleted member]

Simon
Chance and want 25%
Not before Bomberman and snake vomes back... And also depends on sakurais views on konami.

Pred.-
Qbby-4.87%

Noms-
Lip x 3
Sable Prince x2

 

[smileMasky]

Sesame bagel

Chance : 5%
Konami lost almost all of its reputation if not all. They still have great IPs but no passion to execute anything substantial.

Want 50%
Back in the brawl days I would have loved to see him but now eh kinda? He was in a smash like game on the GameCube but only in Japan called (TV MIX WORLD FIGHTERS?) along with Snake, Bomberman Twinbee, optimus prime and Tyson from bayblade. Just to name a few. But I'm getting off topic He does bring a lot to the table in terms of gameplay. It also kind of helps that I have played castlevania games in the past.

Qbby: 8.74%
Might try my luck with this.

Nomination Django x5
(Please don't go easy on my boy the other vampire hunter, same company too)

 

[Arcadenik]

Simon Belmont - Castlevania series

Want: 100%
I always wanted Simon in Smash since 2008 (after Brawl). I really love the series even though I can only beat Super Castlevania IV, Simon's Quest, both N64 games, and Metroidvania games.

Simon would be really unique in Smash as a whip-based fighter. He can whip in all directions. He also has access to sub-weapons and they could be used as special moves and Smash moves. I think he could be slow and heavy with strong attacks.

I also like the world of Castlevania and I would love to see a stage from that series in Smash. It would be cool if the stage was like Hyrule Temple (Melee) but it's based on the first level of the original game... with the hallway on the top half and the waterway on the bottom half... and it would be cool if it had the day/night cycle from the sequel so stage hazards (bats, zombies, fish men, and panthers) show up at night.

Chance: 40%
He has to compete with Snake and Bomberman and deal with Konami. At least he has a Netflix show and a new iOS game coming. He still has some relevancy since his NES and SNES games were included in both NES and SNES Classic Edition. He is really a Nintendo icon from the NES/SNES eras despite being a Konami character.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Simon Belmont

Chance: Abstain
Want: 0%

One of the Smash favorites I don’t really care about. I’d rather have Snake back.

x2 Tom Nook
x3 Lara Croft

 

[Koopaul]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 15%
If any Konami 3rd party gets in, it'll probably be him.
Want: 15%
He'd be fun, and certainly worthy to be with all the great icons. But I generally keep 3rd parties low because of personal prejudice.

Predictions for Qbby
Chance: 10%
Want: 15%

Nominations: Barbara ×5

---

If we are explaining our percentages I need to tell you that when it comes to 3rd parties I never rate higher than 25% because of how Sakurai needs the approval of these characters from other companies. That knocks off points for me. Compare a Nintendo IP which Sakurai can just use with ease.

As for Nintendo characters. I never rate higher than 99%. Why? Because I'm not 100% certain of anything.

I also never rate any video game character 0% because you never know what can happen. Only non video game characters deserve the 0%.

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

What a terrible night to have a curse...

Simon Belmont:

Chance: 35%
Castlevania is another classic member of gaming's old guard - and helped established the MetroidVania genre for platformers that we still see today like Shovel Knight. Simon's also got plenty of moveset potential he could draw from thanks to his whip and the various items from the Castlevania series. Although I haven't seen any games recently, Castlevania definitely saw a revitalisation in the Netflix series last year, so I think Simon's definitely a character with the star power to be worthy of Smash Bros. (Didn't see it since I'm not a Netflix guy, so sorry if I've made a mistake)

I do think his main problems would be whether Konami would be willing to play nice or stay with their Pachinko machines. Aside from that, Simon's got competition from Snake and Bomberman, and Snake already has veteran cred to his name, so they might negotiate for Snake back over Simon.

Want: 67%
Simon would be a cool character to see in Smash. Haven't played much of the Castlevania games though, but I'd be hyped if they added Simon to Smash Bros.

Nominate: Solaire X3
Yu Narukami X2

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 18%
Want: 13%
Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[MrMcNuts]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 20%

Can't imagine sakurai is too keen on Konami after how they treated his boi kojima but Simon is well requested so there's always that.

Want: 40%

Not my most wanted third party but would be a cool one!

 

[TheFritzle]

Simon Belmont Chance:
30%
Simon Belmont fits a lot of criteria that Sakurai has for characters getting into Smash. He has a lot of history, and could have a unique moveset. The main problem is Konami. After Snake getting cut from Smash 4, I can't see a new Konami rep geting added. If we were to get Simon Belmont, I think he'd bring Snake back with him.

Simon Belmont Want:
60%
I wouldn't mind him getting in. He has a cool design and his weapon is unique among the Smash cast.

Qbby Prediction:
11.84%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 5%
3rd party from a franchise that have been very active. There's also Bomberman, a much more likely Konami character.
Want: 0%
Don't care for him. He looks boring and I have no attachment to the games.

Qbby Prediction: 5.79%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[Wyoming]

Nomination update

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Mike Jones, pre-Belmont

Spyro x284
Funky Kong x270
KOS-MOS x267
Mimikyu x267
Azura x239
Sans x238
Agumon x231



Over 200:

Urban Champion x225
Dark Samus x224
Travis Touchdown x224
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x223
Mipha x223
Tom Nook x223
Sylux x218
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x215
Masked Link x211
Pyra/Mythra x207

199-150

Gengar x196
Kamek x188
Concept: Skyrim representation x185
Lip x183
Cranky Kong x178
Parabo & Satebo x174
Wonder Red x172
Excitebiker x166
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x162
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x150

149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Linkle x140
Lloyd Irving x140
Neku Sakaruba x139
Papyrus x133
Sable Prince x129
Thwomp x126
Sakura Shinguji x123
Tingle x123
Katrielle Layton x120
Tingle x123
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x120
Tsubasa Oribe x115
Tetra x112
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Steve x110

99-75

Slippy Toad x95
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x95
Scorpion x95
2B x91
Django x90
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Lara Croft x86
Barbara x85
Fjorm x75
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x75


74-50

Veronica x73
DeMille x73
Klonoa x71
Labo related character x68
Ray x68
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x65
Stage: New Donk City x65
Arcade Bunny x64
Starfy x64
Smash Run x63
Zeraora (Pokémon) x62
Primarina x60
Veteran: Corrin x60
Balloon Fighter x57
Leon Kennedy x55
Gooey x54
Tora & Poppi x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51
Tails x50


49-30:

Toon Zelda x49
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x40
Slime x39
Dragonite x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x35
[Rerate] King K. Rool x35
Concept: Monster Hunter character x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
9-Volt x31
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Endou Mamoru x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25
Concept: Female Announcer x25
Louie x25
Breidablik Item x25

24 and less:

Concept: No Mega Evolutions x17
T-Rex x15
[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x15
Yu Narakumi x15
Solaire x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x10
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Nikki x10
Meowth x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x5
Concept: Boss Battles x5
Blastoise x5
Eevee x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Black Mage x4
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

Spyro takes the lead
Azura moves up to 5th, overtaking Sans
Lara Croft breaks 75 noms
Tails breaks 50 noms
Breidablik Item breaks 25 noms
New additions: Ashley Mizuki Robbins and Eevee (x5)

3 HOURS LEFT TO INFLUENCE THE TOP 7 BEFORE I CAP THEM FOR THE SCHEDULE.

 

[slambros]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 10%
Snake would have to come back first. Then, he's got internal competition with Bomberman.

Want: 100%
I'm sure he'd be an awesome character.

Nominations:
Excitebiker x5

 

[Wyoming]

Simon Belmont:

Chance: 3%
Essentially the same major reason that Bomberman has: Konami. Such a weird company to do business with nowadays. I can't possibly give any characters from there a high chance score.

I think he is more likely than Bomberman on the basis that Konami made Belmont and I could see them pushing their own creations rather than someone they bought.

However, Snake remains a veteran and if Konami were to have a character I think it would be him - regardless with their tainted relationship with Kojima and ruining Metal Gear lately.

DLC is another matter if Konami are back for the base roster....

Want: 40%
I have no experience with Castlevania, but the whip-based moveset could be intriguing and it is certainly an iconic franchise that made some waves on Nintendo systems.

Qbby: 8.6%

Nominate Ninten x5
No nominations but someone worth discussing I feel.

 

[NintenRob]

Simon
Chance 4%
Personally I think Snake and Bomberman give him too much competition
Want 20%
I'd rather Bomberman or Snake but ehh

Qbby prediction 9%

Nominate Lara Croft x5 (still hoping for help here)

 

[Icedragonadam]

Chance: 15%
Want: 75%

His chances are not that high because of one thing. Konami.

Prediction: 3.77%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Arcanir]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 10%
Kind of the same situation as Bomberman, a popular classic series that's pretty beloved within the hardcore community (and even Sakurai himself) that may have issues due to Konami owning them and leaving the franchise dormant until recently aside from minor things like the pachinko machines. It did have a Netflix series that has been very successful, but also like Bomberman, said series just came out last year and is likely not in consideration due to that. Thus, his chances are dependant on if Sakurai took an interest in the character and Konami being willing to negotiate, and while the former is definitely possible due to Sakurai's interest in Castlevania, Konami is a wild card due to their actions in recent years and the fact that there are other characters to consider from the company (including Snake, a veteran many want to see back).

Want: 75%
He's not the Belmont I first played as, but he comes from a series that I have enjoyed and would like seeing back at the forefront again. Plus, there's so much they can do with the character and the franchise as a whole in Smash, so I would like to see the character join the battle.

Nomination: Monster Hunter Character x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Some housekeeping but due to the site revision, 6/3 will be a day off. Potentially we shall do a double day to keep to the previous schedule.

Carry on.

 

[Aetheri]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 5%

Want: 20%

----

Qbby-5.06%

----

Dark Samus x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gonna post this early to make sure my noms get past the cutoff, not ending the day yet but I will post when I am. Most likely tomorrow morning.

Simon Belmont

30% Chance

For base game, he has the hurdle of Konami being...Konami. I assume that Snake needs to come back first if before we would get a Konami Rep. After that he has competition from Bomberman. Both mesh well with the cast and have historical legs to stand on. Simon has the edge though due to arguably closer ties to Nintendo history due to how big Castlevania was on the NES and Sakurai having stated that Castlevania was a huge influence on him. Bomberman's best leg to stand on is the Switch game.

100% Want

To be honest, 80% of this want is for the music. I love love love love love love love this soundtrack. But it also is due to how easy I see Castlevania translating into smash. I am working on a moveset rn, but a Dracula's Castle stage, and Alucard assist trophy, a Medusa Head item, and Simon himself playable? It makes sense. He just feels like a character from a series that has the history to be in smash not just due to gaming history, but nintendo history as well. Castlevania is synonymous with the NES and to a lesser extent the SNES. The GBA/DS metroidvanias are some of the generally agreed best games for the system. I would argue that Simon Belmont is the most deserving third party to get in. That does not mean he is my most wanted or even what I see as the most likely but in terms of meshing with the roster and Nintendo history, there is no one that fits the bill better.

Also shame that Captain N was not mentioned once inn this thread. Have you people taste. But having Pit Simon Belmont and Mega Man all in smash together just feels...right.

Nominating Spyro x 5