Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Ura]

Simon Says...

Double Abstain

I know absolutely nothing about Castlevania and Simon Belmont.

Prediction: Qbby

Chance: 10%
Want: 15%

Nominations

Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X 5

 

[Fenriraga]

WHAT A HORRIBLE NIGHT TO RATE A CHARACTER.

Chance: 10%
He absolutely has the historical value and the potential for a unique moveset. Unfortunately, he's held back by Konami, a company that is extremely unpredictable right now, between Konami's exclusion from Smash 4 and the company in general at the moment. I also feel Snake would return before Simon would make it in.

Want- 100%
I LOOOOVE Castlevania. Classic and Metroidvania alike. Simon isn't my favorite Belmont, that honor belongs to Richter, but he's the ONLY choice for a Castlevania rep as far as I'm concerned. He has so much potential as a Smash fighter with his whip and wide assortment of the series' sub weapons. I think Simon deserves to sit beside his fellow champions of platformers, but again... Konami.

Nominate Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Simon Says...

Double Abstain

I know absolutely nothing about Castlevania and Simon Belmont.

Prediction: Qbby

Chance: 10%
Want: 15%

Nominations

Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X 5

This is Ura. They know when they do not know enough and choose not to make a guess of a score. Be like Ura.

 

[Ura]

This is Ura. They know when they do not know enough and choose not to make a guess of a score. Be like Ura.

My name is Ura™ ® and I approve this message.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 19%

- He’s definitely an iconic character and there’s demand for him. He”s from Konami, so... that could be a problem for him.

Want: 10%

- As long as he brings something new to the table, I wouldn’t mind but he’s not a priority.

Prediction

Qbby: 13%

Nomination

Neptune (Neptunia Series) x5

- Super Neptunia RPG is coming to the Switch so might as well start working on her nominations.

 

[colder_than_ice]

Simon Belmont
Chance: 10% - Iconic as he may be, I fear he's outclassed by both Snake and Bomberman for a Konami rep. There's also the issue of whether or not Konami can even be worked with.
Want: 70%

Qbby prediction: 8%

Nominations:
Azura x5
Eevee x10

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just a PSA noms for the next week cut off at 12:00 PM PDT for Connery, so you have until then to get your noms in for them to count for the next weeks schedule.

 

[DaUsername]

Simon Belmont
Chance: N/A
Konami.
Want: 20%
I prefer Snake and Bomberman, but Simon would be okay I guess.

Qbby prediction: 6%
Noms: New Donk City x5

 

[Roberk]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 20%
Honestly, this guy checks all of the boxes: significant to gaming history, Nintendo history, popularity, moveset potential, and his relevance isn't even that bad compared to some other picks of the community. Only one problem: Konami. They've become a very difficult company recently, and are theorized to be the reason why Snake didn't come back. Simon also has to deal with Konami's two other significant and relevant IPs: Bomberman (who has Switch game that was a launch title) and Snake, who's already been in Smash and is much more popular/significant than Simon. Things aren't looking too well for Simon at this point. DLC, if Konami does a complete 180 and is good again, would still be unlikely.

Want: 50%
Whips and vampire hunting equipment would make for a super cool moveset in Smash. I'd love to beat up these simplistic cartoon characters with a big scary dude who kills monsters. He'd definitely increase the variety of the game.

Qbby prediction: 5%

Noms: Lara Croft x5

 

[andimidna]

Simon:
Chance: 8%
Normally I’d give someone of his status a higher rating but I could only imagine him after a snake return and we already know snake’s situation isn’t the best, for all reasons already repeated in above posts
Want: 70%
Iconic and interesting. Whips are cool. Never played his games though

Qbby pred: 6%

x13 FE Summoner
x2 Sylux

 

[Wyoming]

NOMINATION CAP!!

Spoiler: Nominations: post-Belmont, pre-Qbby

Spyro x294
Mimikyu x277
Funky Kong x272
KOS-MOS x272
Azura x249
Sans x238
Tom Nook x232



Over 200:

Agumon x231
Urban Champion x230
Dark Samus x230
Travis Touchdown x229
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x228
Mipha x228
Sylux x225
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x220
Masked Link x216
Pyra/Mythra x212

199-150

Gengar x196
Lip x196
Concept: Skyrim representation x190
Kamek x188
Cranky Kong x183
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x180
Wonder Red x177
Parabo & Satebo x174
Excitebiker x174
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x161
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x150

149-100

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x145
Linkle x145
Lloyd Irving x145
Ryu Hayabusa x140
Neku Sakaruba x139
Papyrus x138
Sable Prince x136
Sakura Shinguji x128
Tingle x128
Thwomp x127
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x125
Katrielle Layton x120
Tsubasa Oribe x115
Steve x115
Tetra x112
Fawful x111
Octoling x110
Scorpion x104


99-75

Lara Croft x99
Slippy Toad x95
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x95
Django x95
2B x91
Barbara x90
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Susie x86
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x78
Fjorm x75


74-50

Veronica x73
DeMille x73
Ray x73
Klonoa x71
Labo related character x71
Stage: New Donk City x70
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x65
Primarina x65
Veteran: Corrin x65
Arcade Bunny x64
Starfy x64
Smash Run x63
Zeraora (Pokémon) x62
Leon Kennedy x60
Balloon Fighter x57
Tails x55
Gooey x54
Tora & Poppi x52
Veteran: Roy x51
Veteran: Dr. Mario x51


49-30:

Toon Zelda x49
Rick/Coo/Kine x45
Concept: Wars character x43
Dragonite x42
Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x40
Concept: Pikmin newcomer x40
[Rerate] King K. Rool x40
Concept: Monster Hunter character x40
Slime x39
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Viridi x33
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
9-Volt x31
Louie x30
Breidablik Item x30
Snorlax x29
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
Mach Rider x28
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Ghirahim x26
Tiki x26
Endou Mamoru x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Ayumi Tachibana x25
Concept: Transformation characters x25
Concept: Female Announcer x25


24 and less:

[Rerate] Rex & Pyra x20
Solaire x18
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x17
Yu Narakumi x17
T-Rex x15
Nikki x15
Eevee x15
Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Joker x10
Concept: Multiple Voice Acting Options x10
Meowth x10
Alex Kidd x5
[Rerate] Daisy x5
Shadow x5
Lark x5
Saber x5
Orbulon x5
Zangoose x5
Kumatora x5
Concept: Pac Man World-based Moveset x5
Concept: Boss Battles x5
Blastoise x5
Ashley Miziku Robbins x5
Ninten x5
Neptune x5
Black Mage x4
Masked Man x3
[Rerate] Squirtle x2
Stage: Metal Caverns x2

Changes:

Looks like @BluePikmin11's in luck! Tom Nook squeezes in just about to be scheduled!
Tough luck for Agumon who misses out a third time in a row despite starting in the top 7 each time.

Mimikyu also a big winner who goes from 4th to 2nd.

Absolutely insane that SIX different ideas were merely another full set of nominations away from being in the top 7. Next week's brawl to be on the schedule is definitely going to be interesting.

Scorpion breaks 100 noms. He becomes the first post-purge character to do so.
New additions: Ninten, and Neptune both at x5.

edit: since I am a charming fella I included the two sets of nominations between the day being confirmed to be over and the calculations being posted. So yes, Cranky and Tails did get those noms.


THESE CHARACTERS HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY VOTED IN. VOTING FOR THEM IS NOW OBSOLETE:

18/05: Spyro (Spyro)
19/05: Mimikyu (Pokemon)
20/05: Funky Kong (Donkey Kong)
21/05: KOS-MOS (Xenosaga)
22/05: Azura (Fire Emblem)
23/05: Sans (Undertale)
24/05: Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)

TCT~Phantom

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Since Noms are in i am going to end the day right now. Please wait for calcs.

 

[Smasher 101]

Simon Belmont

Chance: 20%

oops I'm sending this now anyway, to be edited in. will understand if this isn't counted

Simon has a lot going for him: Castlevania is an undeniably iconic series, it has a notable history on Nintendo, he's the first protagonist and thus likely the most iconic, he's popular, he has a lot of obvious potential, and to top it off Sakurai has literally mentioned Castlevania as a series that influenced him. Honestly I'd give him the title of most likely third party if it wasn't for his one big negative - he's a Konami character. I can't give one of those more than this much. Internal competition with Bomberman and Snake doesn't help either, though I personally feel he at least probably beats Bomberman.

Want: 100%

I said on Bomberman's day that I really wanted Konami content, and yeah that still apply. I like what I've played of Castlevania, and really Simon is a perfect third party choice for my tastes. Legitimately iconic character with close ties to Nintendo and potential to have a really cool and unique moveset? Yes please.

Qbby prediction: 8.25%

Nominations: Tails x5

edit: added chance reasoning

 

[MasterWarlord]

Simon Belmont Chance 10%: I think he really missed the boat at this point. His name really doesn't come up that much outside of Smash speculation, and has been thrown around since Brawl.

Simon Belmont Want 10%: He's a decent choice to represent a good series, but I think Dracula makes the most sense since he's actually in all of the games.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Simon Belmont
16.67% Chance
55.70% Want

To be honest, similar scores to Bomberman. Kind of what I expected. Perhaps if there was less third party hate here he would have scored higher. But cracking Top 15 of want is no small feat.

@Final Smash Gamer gets 5 extra noms for Simon.

Today we got Qbby. Hes a guy. A boxboy. I have no idea about anything about this character give me a sec...

So today we got Qbby from the Boxboy series. Rate him in chance and want. Also predict the scores for my boy Spyro tomorrow.

 

[Troykv]

Qbby

Chance: 30%

A cute little boxboy, the character is slighly relevant, but a bit overshadow for not being a big release; but someone still to consider thanks to his cute little design and fun animations xD

Want: 51%

I kind of like my cute stuff I'm weird! I like cute stuff and edgy stuff... specially cute edgy stuff, like a Small Dark Magician Girl (?)

________________________

Prediction:

Spyro: 12.4% (This is gonna be lopsided xD)

Nominations:

Well... without Tom Nook and KOS-MOS to support... I guess I should move to stuff near the Top 7 and other stuff I like.

Decloned Dark Pit x3
Breidablik Item x2

 

[DaUsername]

So, apparently, there's a (almost definitely fake) leak going around saying that Belmont is in. Coincidence? Anyway,
Qbby
Chance: 1%
While he is the main character of a recent trilogy of Nintendo games, there's one problem: What would he even do? I know there's been some thinking outside the box on movesets before, but this character is a box I can't really think of a way that this character would be playable. Maybe an AT or something.
Want: 0%
I've played BoxBoy and enjoyed it, but don't really want to play as him in Smash. No thanks.

Spyro prediction: 10%
Noms: Steve x5

 

[Parallel_Falchion]

I literally don't know what this thing is so I'm abstaining and have my nominations for Fire Emblem Switch Protagonist x5.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Qbby

Chance: 15%

Boxboy wasn't a trilogy yet when the roster was decided. With a lack of popularity and iconicness, this series might be to small to be considered.

But no, I don't think he has a lack of moveset potential going against him. had his moveset created out of nothing and with Qbby's ability to create sets of boxes which could serve as platforms, walls, etc he could have a very unique playstyle.

Want: 75%

He'd have the most simple desing out of the whole cast, there's a beauty to that. It's something I need after Smash 4's more humanoid newcomers. I could also imagine him being very fun to play.

Predictions for Spyro: 18.33%

Nominations: Leon Kennedy x5

 

[NintenRob]

Qbby
Chance: 12%
HAL does seem very fond of him. He cameos in a couple of Kirby games even and he does have an amiibo. Which also has special compatibility with Kirby. But I'm thinking Assist Trophy is most likely, maybe a stage.
Want:50%
I certainly wouldn't complain. He's kinda cute

Nominate Lara Croft x5 (already at 99, I alone can get her to 225 in 25 days so a pre E3 rating is actually looking pretty likely)

Also predict the scores for my boy Spyro tomorrow.

Spyro confirmed to be TCTs son
Spyro is a purple dragon
TCT must be Ridley
Ridley confirmed
Everyone run for your lives
Therefore my Spyro prediction 16%

 

[GoodGrief741]

My boy BoxBoy

Chance: 30%
Now a lot of you might think I’m stretching his chances. But Qbby is actually one of the most underrated potential newcomers for this iteration of Smash, and I’ll try to explain why.

First, there’s the fact that he fits the window of roster selection almost perfectly. While nothing is certain, around these parts it’s most commonly assumed that the project plan was finalized in 2016, so barring any late-game additions, any character’s chances have to take that date into account. Qbby’s debut game was in 2015, with a sequel coming out in 2016 and a third game most likely being in development at that same time (as some bonus levels at the end of the second game show that the defining mechanics of the third game were already set in stone). So that leaves us with a character that had three games’ worth of content on the board by the time Smash 5’s roster was planned.

Besides Qbby being in a great position timeline-wise (not too recent to be too late, like many see Spring Man and Rex & Pyra could potentially be, but not too old to be obsolete), he has also been greatly received. The three games had very good reviews, and while I can’t attest to sales, the fact that they were extremely cheap and provided a great deal of content for the price point probably helped.

Qbby also has the perk that he’s being pushed hard by HAL Labs (as I’m sure most of you know, the studio that makes the Kirby games, and where Sakurai hails from), with cameo appearances in Kirby Battle Royale, Planet Robobot, and the latest Star Allies. Plus, Qbby already has his own amiibo! How many characters not yet in Smash have that claim to fame? It’s not hard to imagine HAL asking Sakurai to put Qbby in, or even Sakurai doing it of his own volition (he is known to be biased).

Of course, none of that matters if he can’t come up with a moveset for Qbby in Smash. Now it has been said that Sakurai can come up with a moveset for any character, so what truly matters is how much obvious moveset potential does Qbby have on his own?

Well the answer to that is tons.

His main ability is, as is the name of the game, to create chains of boxes, that can be thrown to use as platforms, shields, or makeshift tools, or kept attached to Qbby’s body, to be used as hooks. He can also use boxes to push himself away from things or to slither through gaps. In the third game, Qbby also gains the ability to use special boxes, such as rockets that fly though the air, teleport boxes, bomb boxes and more. Qbby also has many special costumes that grant him special abilities, like a bunny costume that has him jump higher and a ninja costume that makes him faster.

All things considered, there are many ways Qbby could be implemented in Smash. He could be a defensive or strategic character, fitting his nature as a puzzle character. He could have poor air game, as he can’t jump very high or as a deliberate contrast to HAL’s own Kirby.

At the end of the day, Qbby fits most of the characteristics most people look for in a character to be considered likely (in fact, he might fit more than some of the alleged shoe-ins!). The only thing Qbby is lacking is massive popularity. That said, as far as an eShop representative, he has more games on his resume than even Dillon. He’s had 3 recent games, push from his dev team, and the potential to back it up.

Want: 100%
Plus you get to play as a square c’mon I’m not made of stone.

Predictions: Spyro 7%

Nominations: Urban ChampX5

Wow that ended up way longer than I expected. Hopefully I’ll bring somebody around to the cause instead of causing people to tl;dr.

 

[CometX-ing]

Qbby
Chances: 10%
He has a chance purely because he is relativily recent and a Hal character. Beyond that I see nothing going for him.

Want: 0%
Had to google the name just to find out that the Box from Boxboy had a name. That should tell you how much I actually care about him.

Nomination:
Primarina x 5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Spyro confirmed to be TCTs son
Spyro is a purple dragon
TCT must be Ridley
Ridley confirmed
Everyone run for your lives
Therefore my Spyro prediction 16%

My cover has been blown.

 

[NintenRob]

My cover has been blown.

I see your true form

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Only 16 characters will be rated after Tom Nook before E3 .

QBBY

Chance Abstain
Want Abstain

No idea who he is lol

x4 Excitebiker
x1 Arcade Bunny

 

[Wyoming]

Qbby

Chance: 8%
I think there is a reasonable chance. Recent IP that has done well and represents the era Smash Switch could seek to represent (Wii U/3DS)

Moveset potential is a bit of an issue to imagine but Sakurai could be inspired by a cardboard box, nevermind a box that is a boy.

Istruggle to see Sakurai picking him over other 3DS starlets such as Rhythm Heaven though. He would be a very left field choice.

Want: 35%
Eh I find the idea interesting. Not my most desired but something fun could be crafted out of him.

Spyro: 15.8%
This one will go all over the place

Nominate Cranky Kong x3, Ninten x2

Only 16 characters will be rated after Tom Nook before E3 .

Indeed due to the E3 schedule. So if people.want certain characters to be rated before E3 now is the time to convince others to vote for someone.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Qbby

Chance: 10%

Want: 10%

Spyro prediction: 15%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Qbby want: 5% (15-10*)

Nominations:

Decloned Ganondorf x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Deleted member]

Qbby

Chance/Want: Abstain

Nominations: T-Rex (Fossil Fighters) x 5

 

[RouffWestie]

Qbby

Chance: 1%
Want: 0%
It's just anotherone of their lesser-known IPs.

Nominations: Lip ×5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Double Abstain for Qbby, I just have no clue on him or his series.

Spyro: 13.46%

Eh, I don't care too much now since Azura and KOS-MOS are on the list, so I'll just help out some people with their noms.
x5 to Lip.

 

[fogbadge]

qbby, its a shame more of you dont know who he is

chances: 30% they're not great but sakurai likes to mess with us

want: 100% itd be some much fun to play as him, smacking people with boxes

 

[Koopaul]

Qbby
Chance: 35%
Pretty much everything GoodGreif said. It helps that Nintendo and HAL is really pushing this little guy and that Sakurai himself hails from HAL and probably has a strong relationship with them.
It also helps that Sakurai likes to put in oddballs and this guy has the potential to be an oddball choice.
Want: 50%
I tend to like strange characters or things you don't expect. I don't feel strongly about Qbby himself but I like the idea of smaller series getting to shine with the greats.

Predictions for Spyro
Chance: 12%
Want: 60%

Nominations
Barbara ×3
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice ×2

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Qbby:
Chance: 15%
Very hard to predict new series entering the fray with a playable character, but somehow Qbby just

Ticks all the right boxes

Want: 70%
I really like the idea of this. The series thinks outside the box and that would make for a great character

Balloon Fighter x5

Spyro: 11.2%

 

[TheFritzle]

Qbby Chance:
30%
An off-the-wall pick, I think Qbby has a decent chance at getting in. He's a surprisingly popular character and his games were heavily supported by Nintendo. I really don't see his moveset potential being an issue, because it seems pretty obvious. He's also a very simplistic character and I can't imagine his models taking very much time to make.

Qbby Want:
50%
Wouldn't mind him getting in, but I wouldn't be sad if he didn't make it.

Spyro Predictions:
14.84%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Deleted member]

Kyūbi

I'll never get bored of this joke

Chance: 15%
Young digital-only IP, and...

Want: 0%
...I really have no idea how he'd fight. Him being an Assist Trophy is fine though.


Noms:
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x5
+
Concept: Female announcer x5

Spyro prediction: 23.16%

 

[Yokta]

QBBY

Chance: 43%
Want: 64%

If we were rating his chances as an Assist Trophy, he'd be an easy >90%. As a fighter, though? I have no idea how, but can you imagine if it somehow happened?

 

[Cycrum]

Qbby

Chance and Want: Abstain
Yeah.... I just don't know anything about the BoxBoy. I will just leave my prediction and nominations here.

Prediction:
Spyro: 25.06%

Nominations:
Steve (Minecraft) x5

Also, I'd like to take the time to ask if some of you would be willing to help the blocky boi I've been nominating for a while now get enough nominations to be discussed before E3. I personally don't care if we get Minecraft content in Smash; I simply think that Steve has a really good chance of getting into Smash and could possibly be revealed at E3. Also, Steve could make for a very interesting, albeit controversial, discussion due to his source material's infamy.

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Qbby

Chance- 15%
He is HALs newest series, and its well recoeved, but I dont think its made big enough of an impact for Smash Bros.

Want- 0%
No thanks. Im more interested in a different square shapped character for Smash Bros.

Ridley Jr- 13.42%

Scorpion X 4
Thwomp X 1

 

[Skyblade12]

Qbby
Chance - 3%
He’s a box. His games may be popular, but that is not Fighter material.
Want - 0%
If we were rating him as an AT, this would change.