Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[YoshiandToad]

Ashley
Chance: 20%
If there's a frontrunner for WarioWare it has to be Ashley. Her popularity in Japan is both surprising and overwhelming. However, comparitively in America there's little demand for a new Warioware character and many would much rather see Waluigi team up with Wario before Ashley and some may want Syrup before Ashley to help represent Wario's Land adventures more than wacky minigames.

Pre Sm4sh I had no idea of how popular she was but getting an Assist Trophy AND a mii outfit speaks a fair amount...

That said Warioware has a whole heap of wacky characters to choose from, and Ashley has never been promoted in the series as any more important than the rest of the wacky crew. The last Warioware was a massive flop too, but that shouldn't affect anything with her popularity.

Want: 20%
She has moveset potential for sure, but I'd much rather have the Nintendo embodying 9-Volt if we have to have a Warioware character so we can represent a bunch of retro games that don't have enough moveset potential alone. But I'd rather Waluigi if Wario's feeling lonely first anyway and maybe Syrup before him.

Ashley's popularity has always been a weird one to me too. Her song is admittedly cool and catchy, but that's about the only thing I can really latch onto as likable and it's upbeat nature is in total and utter contrast to the dark child archetype she embodies. Listen to the amount of emotion 'Ashley' sings in her song, and then look in her actual games...and there's definitely a stark contradiction. Maybe I'd like her more if she was as energetic as her song rather than Daria in chibi form...

Geno Prediction: 12%

Nominations:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[TheSqushiestManatee]

Ashley

Chance: 25%

Want: 70%

Nominations: Wonder Red x5

 

[CatRaccoonBL]

Ashley

Chance: 60%
Ashley is very interesting. While warioware itself has been quiet since Game & Wario, Ashley herself has been making a lot of noise in the background.

People have of course brought up the nintendo badge arcade. Let me talk about that. The nintendo badge arcade frequently pushed three girls by making lots of badges for them. Ashley, Nikki, and Isabelle. Out of these three, Ashley was pushed the hardest though. All three of them had nintendo cross over badges and seasonal themed one. However, Ashley was the one who had an entire april fool's joke attached to her about a fake game starring her. Not only that, but she also got a badge to promote monster hunter.

It's a pretty big deal to be used to promote a third party game.

Not only that, but she also got three whole Nintendo 3ds home themes.

And if that isn't crazy enough she was also used to promote the tank trooper game, despite not appearing in it.

Then there is of course the fact that she did actually appear in a game between Game & Wario and when the project plan was most likely made.

By completeing all the non-super hard challenges in Rhythm heaven megamix, you get to play as reskinned verion of some of some of the regular stages. With the ability to play as some of the wario ware characters including Ashley. But before even doing that, she has a small cameo by being a doll on the desk of the curator of the museum.

She also was the only other wario character besides wario to get a mario maker costume.

Next. Source gaming asked quite a number of people in japan about who they wanted in smash during the time of the smash ballot. This was the result:

Before saying anything, this of course isn't an accurate representation of everyone in japan. But it is still interesting for analysis.

You might be thinking this overall unimpressive. But looking at it closely you can see the fact that she was the highest rated character that was already an assist trophy in smash 4. It also means the despite being an assist trophy, people gave quite a bit of votes for her. We have no idea have Sakurai determines who to promote from an assist trohpy. For all we know he could be only planning to promote one. In that regard it could be a great advantage for Ashley.

And speaking of all that, yeah she had a mii costume and an assist trophy.

Lastly Ashley doesn't have competition in terms of the wario series. Her popularity is just far too great now. If characters like Mona were that popular they would have been massively promoting her too. But they aren't. They are promoting Ashley. If any Wario character gets in, it will be Ashley. It's not even a contest.

With all that said, even I'll admit the fact that Wario just now getting a new game announced is a bit concerning. Smash bros heavily favored recentcy in Smash 4.

As I said as well, Sakurai might only chose to promote one assist trophy character. In that regard, characters like Takamaru also has a lot of things going for him. In that regard, Ashley would suddenly find herself in massive competition. Though even if they are planning to promote more than 1 Assist trophy, I don't think they would promote a ton of them. Would seem kinda weird. Like why make them assist trophies in the first place.

Want: 100%
My third most wanted character. We need more cute characters in smash. But seriously, there is quite a bit to say about Ashley. There is a reason she is popular. I feel in general her personality could add a nice new taste to smash.

Now you may be thinking what another magic user could add to smash. Especially since we already have characters like Robin, Palutena, Zelda, etc.

However, Ashley differs from them because she is a witch. And witches cast hexes. This would make her perfect to be a debuffer/DoT (Damage over Time) character. What does that mean? Debuffer is the opposite of a buffer. Instead of raising her own stats, she decreases her opponents stats. Like she could decrease the speed or knockback of a character. Damage over time is kinda self-explanatory. Think of things like poison. Damage that gets added through time rather than all at once. She could cast a spell that put Lip's flower on someone's head for example.

But overall, I'll think she'll be very interesting.

Nominations: Veronica (Fire Emblem) x5

BluePikmin11 Btw, why do you think being in a Mario Spin-off is so important? Granted, she techically did as a costume in Mario Maker, but that probably doesn't count.

 

[BluePikmin11]

I am very very surprised about Ashley's current ratings. I definitely have to keep my eye on her, but I am still pretty skeptical due to her roles in recent WW games.

BluePikmin11 Btw, why do you think being in a Mario Spin-off is so important? Granted, she techically did as a costume in Mario Maker, but that probably doesn't count.

It would indicate that Nintendo is serious about promoting Ashley. Which could lead to the possibility of Nintendo wanting Sakurai to add Ashley, but that heavy promotion has not really happened yet and she remained having a non-towering role over other WarioWare characters for the past WarioWare games.

 

[Nimbostratus]

Ehh, not sure I agree with the sentiment that Ashley needs to show up in a Mario spin-off to be considered "promoted." I agree with Rosalina, but Rosalina is a Mario character while Ashley is very much a WarioWare character. Very different expectations for an in-franchise vs out-of-franchise appearing in a Mario game. Sure, there's the likes of Funky Kong, Isabelle, and the Inklings, but Inklings were promoted everywhere and were inevitable (no one is saying Ashley is on their level, sure), while Funky Kong and Isabelle are far from locks. It obviously helps, but I don't think there is near enough data to imply an out-of-franchise character needs to appear in a Mario spin-off to be in Smash.

 

[BluePikmin11]

It does not have to be her appearing in a Mario spinoff, just her having more promotion beyond the Badge Arcade, with her having significant roles in future WarioWare titles. Heck even an Ashley spinoff game would benefit.

 

[MrMcNuts]

Ashley

Chance: 20%

I don't really see wario ware getting another rep but if they did it'd be her due to the requests.

Want: 25%

No where near my most wanted but she'd be something kind of unique at least

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Ashley Prediction: 40%
She seems super popular and requested in Japan, seems to be still somewhat requested everywhere else, and out of all the characters promoted via Badge Arcade, she was pushed the most by a good amount. And she definitely has moveset potential, so she's good there too. She actually comes off as an underdog with a decent chance here.

Want: 50%

Geno Prediction: 15%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[WeirdChillFever]

It does not have to be her appearing in a Mario spinoff, just her having more promotion beyond the Badge Arcade, with her having significant roles in future WarioWare titles. Heck even an Ashley spinoff game would benefit.

What future WarioWare titles?
The series itself didn't really rapid-fire their game releases, so I very much understand there not being much opportunity for her to distinguish herself.

 

[VexTheHex]

Ashley
Chance - 60%
There isn't that many big names left in the playing field. Ashley has some popularity and stands out from the current cast while she gained some attention last Smash Gen. I think she has a decent shot at showing up as most characters up for consideration on here are too new or too old to be locks themselves.
Want - 90%
She's a cute little witch that doesn't match up with any of our other characters in design and potential. There's a lot to support for her from my viewpoint.

Nominations - 5 Greninja

 

[AlphaSSB]

Ashley

Chances: 20% - Not as unlikely as some people may think. She's arguably the top candidate for a Wario-series newcomer, has decent popularity behind her, had a Mii Outfit based on her, and she was an Assist Trophy. The latter is especially helpful, as since they're probably re-using Smash Wii U assets, she already has a model and animations to work with, cutting development time a tad bit.

Want: 1% - Helps that she's 1st Party. Has potential, but I don't really care for the idea.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Ashley

Chance 40%
Want 0%

She’s the obvious Wario newcomer even though I much prefer Mona or Captain Syrup. I don’t count Waluigi as a Wario newcomer since he’s a mario character. She could definitely happen but I don’t care much for her character.

x2 Arcade Bunny
x1 Kamek
x1 Cranky
x1 Barbara

 

[Hinata]

Ashley

Chance: 65%

As most people in this thread have stated, Ashley's by far the most popular Warioware character, and the most obvious choice if that series were to get a newcomer. The devs of the Warioware series want to promote her as much as possible, and I could easily see them trying to go for the ultimate promotion in Smash, but it's all dependent on what Sakurai wants to do. Either way, I'd say she's got a good shot.

Want: 100%

Yeah, no need to elaborate here.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ashley

Chance: 45%

Want: 60%

She's the most popular Wario character besides Wario himself, so she's a top contender for Assist Trophy to become promoted.

Geno Prediction: 14.97%

Nominate Lucas x3, Mewtwo x2

 

[ShinyRegice]

Ashley chances: 14%
The most popular WarioWare character asides from Wario himself apparently, I think how likely she is will correspond to how much she's considered to stand out from the rest of the cast as a major face of the series, as well as how interesting Sakurai might see her moveset-wise. However, I still see her as being fairly low on the priority list, but if her Mii costume sold well compared to others that might help her.

Ashley want: 20%
She looks like she'd be kind of cool, but I don't really have any notable personal investment in her.

Geno prediction: 10.54%

Nominating:
Concept: recycled veteran character artworks from Smash 3DS/Wii U x5

With Nintendo's recent announcement it looks like we're possibly not getting Smash news before the E3 presentation, which would fit my first hypothesis about when we'd get more of them. I hope that's true so I can see my concept being rated before it becomes basically guaranteed to be either confirmed or deconfirmed (yeah I'm possibly the only person on this forum to not want Smash news early May )
And the hour at which the presentation is going to be broadcasted is impractical to me since I now have less free time. If I want to watch it unspoiled, it looks like the only option might be to copy the URL of the YouTube video before the livestream starts and paste it on a YouTube downloader once it's over, and then watch it offline completely blind while so many of you will already know everything.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Just gonna state that I will probably have to end the day tonight around ~11 PM EDT. I have a really big day tomorrow and I will not have time to calc during the day. As such, please make sure to have your posts in by then.

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Ashley want: 0% (1-10*)

Ashley barely does anything in her games, and her microgames are nothing special or interesting for Smash.

Nominations:

Neku x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[RouffWestie]

Ashley

Chance: 17%

Another fan favorite, now officially an AT and Mii Costume, and getting noticeably more recognition in other games. I doubt Sakurai sees her as important enough to be a newcomer.

Want: 1%

Potentially interesting moveset, but she's already playable in Crusade, so I would just play that if I really wanted her.

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x4
Lip x1

 

[TumblrFamous]

Ashley

Chance: 55%
I think Ashley is a character lots of people sleep on. She's a popular character in Japan. And she's been consistent and relevant since her debut in the WarioWare franchise. Plus, all of the content she's gotten in the Smash games? I think she has a very good chance to get in. Plus, her moveset potential is a no-brainer. Sakurai went for different types of gameplay styles in the last Smash game, with a puppet character, a "stance" character, a grounded powerhouse but pitiful air fighter, and a character with weapon/magic durability to name a few. I can see him continuing this trend and add in different playstyles into this next game, and Ashley as a debuffer character with her spells would be the way to do it.

Want: 100%
WarioWare: Touched! was one of my first DS games. I love Ashley, I think she has a lot of potential, and would love to play as her. We need more variety in our female representation anyway. Most of them are blonde princesses. A young witch would be a really great and different type of representation.

Geno Prediction: 8.9%

Nominations: Lucas x5

 

[Megaban]

ASHLEY
Chance -16%
Depends on how Sakurai and co look at WarioWare. Because ngl, it IS hard to take the character from this game, because besides Wario (and maybe Kat & Ana) no one really exhibits real moveset material due to nature of microgames-based games. But if Sakurai DOES think the character from this game would be added, it's either KatAna or Ashley really. Both are already Assist Trophies, both have some alright chances.

Want -65%
Ngl, I wanted her more long ago. But still totally would like seeing her in Smash as *playable* character.

Prediction: Geno -3%

Nomination: Kamek x5, Excitebike x5.

 

[Runic_SSB]

Ashley

Chance: 30%
Definitely popular and has the most moveset potential of anyone in WarioWare, but still faces competition from Mona. Plus, there might not even be another Wario character this time.

Want: 50%
She's cute and she's from a game I like, but I wouldn't be super hyped for her and I want a lot of other characters more

Geno prediction: 5%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x3
Funky Kong x2

 

[Smasher 101]

Ashley

Chance: 35%

Honestly at this point, if there is a new WarioWare character, it's almost certainly going to be Ashley. And I think she's a very real possibility who actually has quite a bit going for her. She's a very popular character; received an assist trophy and a Mii costume in Smash 4; and as others have mentioned she's showed up recently several times, most notably in the Badge Arcade. I could see Sakurai making a good moveset for her pretty easily too. The one big minus she has is that WarioWare hasn't had a new entry since the last game (Gold likely showed up too late to count), but her appearances in other games might have kept her relevant enough for that to not hurt her as much as it would others. I can't say I'm confident enough to say she'll be in, but I wouldn't underestimate her. She's definitely a contender.

Want: 75%

I'd be down with her. She's not super high priority for me, but I love WarioWare, she's one of my two favorite characters from the series, and I imagine she'd be a pretty unique fighter.

Geno prediction: 11.51%

Nominations: Bomberman x5

 

[Llort A. Ton]

You better know her name

Chance- 45%
Not the safest bet, but she has quite the cult following, with her popularity leading to an AT and a dlc mii outfit. I could sse Sakurai taking note of this popularity and going all the way with a character.

Want- 60%
She'd be a cool inclusion. I dont need her, but if theres anyone from Wario Ware that Id have to pick, it'd be her.

Geno- 34.96%

Thwomp X 5

 

[Kitty-chan]

Ashley

Chance: 50%
In my eyes, she would be the most logical choice for a nyu Warioware rep nya. She's very popular and wanted in Japan, and there's a mii costume of her which may or may nyot mean anything nya.

Want: 97.5%
I've never actually considered supporting this character before nya, Warioware wasn't a franchise I ever cared nyabout nor ever even played nya. But, I'm a simple neko, one whose opinions and desire for characters can be easily manipulated by design nyalone nya. That being said, I want this character, nyot because she could have potential or that I think Warioware needs more reps nya. But because she's fluffing nyadorable and I fluffing wanya beat her up in training mode nya~! Why is this poor girl being kept locked in a bloody AT nya!? Well!? Tell me Nintendo nya!! Is money what nyu want nya!? Than take it damn it nya!! ... TAKE IT!! Or burn. ................. That is all nya, honk honkShoot me. I still want King K. Rool more though nyaha~

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[Troykv]

Ashley

Chance: 30%

She isn't the highest priority because she represents a franchise that isn't exactly consider major, but she is very popular and it would work to create a very interesting mixing the bizarre nature of WarioWare and her magical stuff.

Want: 60%

I have liked this girl since I know her, so I would like to see her in the game.

______________________

Prediction:

Geno: 22.2% (This one will be weeeiiird)

Nomination:

KOS-MOS x5

 

[MasterWarlord]

Chance - 6.5%: I cannot ignore her being a Mii costume and an assist trophy simultaneously, and the amount of people who were disappointed when she was revealed as an AT was shockingly high to me. Still, her apparent popularity she somehow has is the only thing to elevate her above other characters in her series, and I really don't think Warioware needs another character.

Want - 0%: I personally hate her character archetype, but more importantly I hate WarioWare and blame it for killing Wario Land. No, I don't think Wario Land should get a new character, but nuts to WarioWare getting one.

Nominate Cranky Kong x5

 

[wildvine47]

Ashley

Chance: 30% - Honestly, I was going to give her way lower, but the arguments in this thread for her have been very convincing. I don't think she has the BEST chance considering she's still basically a character that exists as fluff between minigames, but with how heavily Nintendo's promoted her through badge arcade and with her numerous nods already in Smash, she's not someone I can outright dismiss either.

Want: 5% - Nah. I don't really think Warioware's an important enough series for a second rep, considering it's just a pile of minigames in a box. Wario's costume and the stages are more than enough. Even amongst Wario characters, I'd much rather have Waluigi or Captain Syrup.

Prediction

Geno: 31.13% - I never thought I'd see the day where this guy actually had a negotiable shot at getting into Smash. But between Sakurai actually commenting on the character in a positive light, and Cloud and the Geno Mii costume leaving the door wide open, I think this prodigal puppet might actually be a serious contender this go around. We live in a weird, weird world.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[Sid-cada]

Ashley

Chance - 17.5% - While popular, I can't see it being overly likely. She's promoted, sure, but there's not enough push for her I feel, and she doesn't have that immediately obvious move set potential. I think if Sakurai was looking for a generic mage, he'd pick Kamek.

Want - 35% - Could be cool, but I would prefer Mona.


Prediction

Geno - 24.35% - Maybe more likely than before?


Nominations

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[Mighty Moose]

Ashley

Chance: 30%
Relatively popular, particularly in Japan, and got that Mii costume in Sm4sh. At the same time, she's a character who just screams AT at best, the way Sakurai obviously sees Waluigi, she comes from a smaller franchise and doesn't even have that important a role in her own series.

Want: 20%
I have nothing against her and from the little I know she has potential to be fun, but I could name at least 15 somewhat realistic characters off the top of my head i'd definitely put in before Ashley.

Nominate Ganon x5

 

[andimidna]

Ashley:
If there’s another Wario character, it’s her. However, Wario does the series justice on his own. That popularity chart had her higher than I expected, but obviously this game isn’t just for Japan either.

Chance: 15%
Want: 80%

While I don’t see why she should be a priority, I like her.

Geno prediction: 23%

x2 Veronica
x3 Azura

 

[MilkMaiden]

Ashley

Chance: 55%
She's definitely the most popular WarioWare character besides the Wario himself, proof being her cute Mii Fighter outfit and her assist trophy. She also has one the most recognizable theme tunes out of the franchise. And with the new WarioWare game coming out on 3DS it'd raise up her relevance. She'd definitely be the best candidate out of the WarioWare characters.

Want: 90%
I think the game could benefit from having more ranged magical characters like Robin, and more female representation is always nice considering the huge amount of girls we got in Wii U. Plus she's super cute

-----

Nominations - KOS-MOS x5

 

[Luminario]

Ashley

Chance: 60%
She's clearly popular, especially in Japan, and has obvious moveset concept just by working with her theme song alone (darkest spells, meanest potions, "I cast a hex on you" etc). She's an AT, Mii outfit, and her theme has been remixed twice. If the roster was chosen in 2016, Game & Wario was only 3 years old, making her at least somewhat relevant, with the choice of using her as one of the 3 characters who pop up continuously in crossovers in the Nintendo Badge Arcade giving her that tiny extra boost in relevancy and making her popularity undeniable. She's got everything she needs for a nice shot at the roster, but whether or not Sakurai will add her is anyone's guess.

Want: 100%
She's one of my top 3, and ever since WarioWare Touched I've loved her as a character.

I nominate Lip x5

 

[NintenRob]

Ashley
20%
While popular, I don't really picture Wario getting a second two anytime soon. But I could definitely be wrong.
Want: 60%
She's cool

Nominate
Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction Geno 9%

 

[DaUsername]

Ashley
Chance: 30%
Want: 50%

Geno prediction: 14%
Noms: Mike Jones x5

 

[Erureido]

Ashley

Chance: 35%

She definitely has the popularity under her belt, as well as some solid fame from her series, but I feel that the main issue is that Wario might not need another rep.

Want: 75%

She's one of my favorite Warioware characters, and the concept of a witch using both her staff and her little devil friend that can shape shift makes for some great moveset potential. I also really like her theme!

------

Predictions

Geno (Super Mario RPG): 15.61%

I still feel that Square Enix is an issue here.

------

Nominations

Greninja (Pokemon): x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Ashley:

Chance: 40%
I think given how popular she is and Nintendo have attempted to capitalise on that - They've invoked the Wolverine Publicity trope on her for an obscure 3DS title and she doesn't show up in it at all, and she seems popular enough to warrant a Mii Costume. I guess when it comes to movesets, they could draw from various Minigames that she has, draw from the verses of her songs and make her a potion master that affects the fighters, or draw some inspiration from Game and Wario.

Want: 70%
Not really one of my most wanted characters, but if I were to have a new WarioWare character, it'd probably be Ashley. Either way, I wouldn't be opposed to the idea.

 

[PsySmasher]

Ashley
Chance: 45%
Is very popular and has had plenty of exposure from Smash 4 and the Nintendo Badge Arcade.
Want: 85%
One of my most wanted newcomers.

Predictions
Geno: 19.65%

Nominations:
Tora and Poppi x 5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Ashley
Chance: 20% - She has a decent shot, definitely the number one pick for a Warioware rep. There's not much that I can say that everyone else hasn't already said.
Want: 70%

Geno prediction: 16%

Nominations: Azura x5

 

[Deleted member]

Ashley

Chance: 40%
She's popular in Japan and Sakurai knows about it since she got a Mii Costume. She's got good moveset potential too. I just think being a Wario character would make her lower priority given it's relative inactivity during the development cycle afaik.

Want: 60%
She'd be cool. I'm not that familiar with her though.

Geno prediction: 16.36%

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

 

[ZealousGamer]

Ashley

Chance 25%: She is possible but not likely.

Want 30%: I really don't care but there are better options.

Nominations:
Masked Link 2x
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) 2x
No Mega Evolutions 1x