Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[AlphaSSB]

Geno

Chance: 10% - Has popularity behind him, and is already a Mii costume. It shows that he's at least on Sakurai's mind. The only things I can see getting in his way is him being 3rd Party, and if Cloud returns or not. Sakurai wasn't able to get a lot of stuff from Final Fantasy, and if he has to renew the ability to use him, he may choose not to try for Cloud again. Geno may have been a Mii Costume, but if Sakurai isn't willing to try and get Cloud back, I don't think that he'd go back and try for Geno, either.

Want: 0% - Not a fan of adding more 3rd Parties to the roster. Even if they're from a Nintendo-based universe.

Nominations: Slippy Toad x5

 

[Deleted member]

♡♪!?

Chance: 10%
Even with the Geno costume for and if we consider that Square Enix will allow Nintendo to use one or many of their IPs for Smash again, I still doubt Nintendo and Sakurai would put so much efforts to make a side character from a game like Mario RPG playable.

Want: 50%
I haven't played to the first Mario RPG on the SNES, but from what I seen of him, I'll give him a pass.


Noms:
Concept: Female announcer x5

Isabelle prediction: 15.24%
(I feel some overestimation for her.)

 

[Nimbostratus]

Geno
Chance- 40%
This shouldn't be likely...
And yet.
Nintendo has already partnered with Square Enix, Sakurai has called out Geno's popularity on multiple occasions and said he considered adding him (!), and we even got a Mii costume. Those are all pretty significant factors in his favor.
But, nothing has changed since Smash 4. Why did Sakurai hold off from making him a DLC addition then? The answer to the question has dramatic implications on his chances, but who knows?

Want- 15%
I guess his fans are dedicated and have waited for a long time. His design is kind of cool. I'm usually against a flood of third-parties, but I don't count Geno in that group since he's a character from a first-party franchise. But, like a lot of others, the extent of his popularity has baffled me. He's from one very old game and has multiple more iconic and relevant characters from his franchise.

Isabelle Predictions- 33%

Nominations:
Impa x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Geno

Chance - 10% - He was popular back in the day, but I don't think he's worth it. He was called out as a possibility, but in the end his obscurity and oldness makes him not bring enough bang for his buck among third parties.

Want - 30% - I'd rather the third party money go to someone more noteworthy, thanks.


Predictions

Isabelle - 25.53% - She's popular, but not quite capable.


Nominaitons

Masked Dedede Final Smash X5

 

[skylanders fan]

geno
chance abstain
popular with fans but I'm not really sure how I would rate him

want 80%
would be a cool and unique character

predictions
isabelle 37%

noms
mewtwo x5

 

[Depressed Gengar]

Geno Chance: 25%
Honestly, he's not in a terrible spot. If Sakurai considered him all the way back in Brawl, LONG after Super Mario RPG, and even gave him a Mii costume in the last game, I don't think we can count him out as long as he has some popularity. I'd even willingly give him a higher score if Square Enix wasn't stingy with him or any SMRPG stuff.

Want: 50%
I'm neutral to the idea.

Isabelle Prediction: 50%

Nominations: Gengar X5

 

[jamesster445]

Geno

Chance- 75%
Want- 100%

Sakurai has gone on record and admitted that he wanted Geno for Brawl. As far as I'm concerned Geno is not only the most likely, but most deserving of a second Square rep.

Nominations Tora and Poppi x5

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Geno

Chance Abstain
Want 0%

It’s hard to pinpoint how likely he is because he’s not like other characters. Sure he is irrelevant but apparently Sakurai expressed interest in him and even gave him a Mii costume, but what if he thinks that Mii costume is enough? Then again on the contrary he could elevate that Mii costume and turn him into a newcomer. So I’d rather abstain rating his chances.

Arcade Bunny x4
Kamek x1

 

[Geno Boost]

Geno
Chance 75%
His chances are way better than before knowing Sakurai considered him twice and knows how popular he is and says that he perfectly fits into smash and square-enix allowing Geno to get a Mii Costume and it's the ONLY Mii costume announcement with a splash screen that Mii costume could be a test to see how high it would sell and if he sells really high then he is definitely the most likely 2nd square-enix rep and he also represent the Nintendo's side of square-enix history and seeing that square-enix relationship with Nintendo is becoming better now the only thing we need see that if square-enix will stay in the switch version of smash.

Even though SMRPG is 22 years old and Geno was from one game and wasn't the main character he is still being talked about to this date and this is because SMRPG fanbase are still around and they don't want this game to be forgotten and die forever and now Sakurai has the power to grant our long waited wish. look M&LRPG and Paper Mario fans are happy that they are getting new games but what about us the SMRPG fanbase? we got nothing for 22 years other than cameos this is why we ask for Geno for smash because this might be the only game where we could actually get SMRPG contents we had no other choices to show our support for SMRPG contents even if we beg for a true sequel but we got so close on getting Geno in smash and next time we hope that we get the SMRPG that we were waiting for so long.

Want
100%
Duh he is the best character ever made in my opinion, also seeing any SMRPG content is like dream come true to any SMRPG fan out there because this is something that people have to wait for ages also Geno's moveset would be amazing with the timed hits from SMRPG, Geno deserve a 2nd chance to live again.

It's really sad when people say that Geno shouldn't be added to smash just because he is 3rd party from a 22 years old game because we are trying to revive SMRPG for so long and this was our only choice left.

Nominations
Alex Kidd x5

 

[Sailor Waddle Dee]

Geno

Chance: 40% - this would have been lower had it not been for his koi costume in smash 4, and cloud being in smash 4. I think he has a decent shot, but is far from a guarantee. Sakurai does seem to want him in too.

Want: 40% - never played the game he’s from, but he seems neat, and I definitely want to check it out. Plus he seems pretty popular.

Isabelle prediction: 36%

Nominations
Qbby x5

 

[BluePikmin11]

Geno is one of the most requested characters from Square Enix. His demand skyrocketed in Brawl, with a major following present in Smash 4 and Smash Switch. The major problem with Geno now is not Sakurai rejecting the character, but Square Enix themselves. I do not think Square would agree to the idea to making Geno playable despite his big popularity. I feel that Square Enix would rather take better profitable opportunities like adding Sora or even Noctis than to agree on adding a decades old character.

Sakurai barely managed to get him as a Mii-costume for Smash 4 DLC, and that is probably the most we will get. I could see more SMRPG content in Smash Switch like music/stages if SQ is nice, but I cannot imagine Geno being playable. Geno is a character that SQ will likely reject playability for Smash Switch, unless Square Enix/Nintendo partner up again to create a SMRPG sequel for the Nintendo Switch. I can see that happening, if the Smash Ballot’s bit of information of “for reference for future software” and Geno’s potentially very high demand come into major consideration.

x5 Tom Nook

 

[Megaban]

GENO
Chance-0%
Only real "plus" I an see is chance of having quite a cool and flashy moveset. That is it. He's a secondary character in quite and old game by now from the biggest franchise in the universe. And there are A LOT of charaters from MArio that have bigger chances, simply just because they aren't in one game (+cameo or 2) only or were in more recent ones. I could write quite a list on what characters have bigger chance than Geno, but you get the point by now.

Want -10%
Except possibly flashy moveset, like I said. I don't think deserves it in any way. Mii costume was good enough and if they bring back Miis I don't mind him getting one again.

Prediction: Isabelle -17%

Nomination: Kamek x3, Excitebike x2

 

[ProfPeanut]

Geno

Chance: 22%
One of the few characters blessed with Sakurai's Notice, Geno just never leaves the discussion table. Never mind his age, while younger characters have been tossed aside for less. Never mind obscurity - be honest, who'd know who Geno is without these speculation seasons? Never mind his origin from an RPG, a genre that Mario barely identifies as. Never mind his status as a one-off Square Enix character - people threw Sora under the bus just for being part-Disney, but imagine trying to ask them for Maui Mallard for Smash.

But Sakurai remembers this character, which is enough to make him a total wildcard. If Sakurai really cares about Geno, if he remembers him despite everything going against this character, then there's nothing that can happen that'd take Geno off the table for good.

Want: 4%
I'm sorry, but seeing this guy stuck onto wishlist after wishlist without any real argument ground out my sympathy for them long ago. When a fanbase says they'd blow up Japan if he wasn't put in the game, that's enough to make me think there isn't really a good case to be found.


Prediction:
Isabelle: 15%

Nominations:
Papyrus (Undertale) x5

 

[Deleted member]

When a fanbase says they'd blow up Japan if he wasn't put in the game, that's enough to make me think there isn't really a good case to be found.

...
What the ****?

 

[RouffWestie]

Geno

Chance: 5%

A fan favorite, now having official recognition in Smash. I'm not fully convinced he'll make it this time, the Mii Costume is what I feel he'll be stuck with.

Want: 10%

Potentially interesting moveset, that's it. He's already playable in Crusade, and carries over the timed-hit mechanics from SMRPG, which I kinda like, so I would just play that if I really wanted to.

Nominations:
Lucas x3
Arle Nadja x2

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Geno want: 0% (5-10*)

I'd be happy for all the people who want him in, and his design is pretty neat.

Nominations:

Masked Link x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Ze Diglett]

When a fanbase says they'd blow up Japan if he wasn't put in the game, that's enough to make me think there isn't really a good case to be found.

Isn't that quoted from a ****ty sprite machinima from like, 2008? Don't act like that represents the Geno fanbase, dude. I'd like to think we're better than threatening mass terrorism if our guy doesn't get in.

 

[SethTheMage]

♡♪!?

Chance: 30% - Now more than ever is his time if he's ever getting in. Sakurai admitted that he likes Geno, and the Mii costume is an expression of that, as well as a nod to the fan push for him. That being said, he still has third party licensing to go through, and his Mii costume was the first mention of him since 2003. If he gets in, it will be due to fan support and Sakurai's final say. I think he's got a decent shot.

Want: 85% - I gotta say, the fan push for Geno during the Brawl days got me to play SMRPG when it launched on the Wii VC. I like the guy; he's unique, he's a cool character, and he'd be a fun surprise reveal. I play him in fangames and mods, and I bought the Mii Costume. I can see myself picking him up as a secondary in tournaments if he's fun to play.


Prediction:

Isabelle: 12.43%

Nomination: Sans x5

 

[Shaboba]

GENO
CHANCE: 30%
Geno is in a very unique position when it comes to Smash. He's a (mostly) fan-beloved Mario character owned by Square, which we all know is very protective of their IPs. Sakurai likes Geno and despite his relative obscurity he got a Mii costume, which definitely wouldn't have happened unless a) the fans REALLY liked him and b) Sakurai himself thought enough to include him. Sakurai's been pulling for Geno for a few games now, which only helps his chances. Even though Geno is a one-off character from a game that came out decades ago and hasn't really been referenced since its release, Super Mario RPG was and remains a classic and is still played and venerated by many fans (and, quite honestly, is by itself more iconic than any Crash or Rayman game). Still, the ball on this one is firmly in Square's court I think, and if Cloud doesn't come back (which itself is possible and in my opinion likely) then Geno DEFINITELY won't be in. I wouldn't bet money on Geno's inclusion but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if he got in as DLC.
WANT: 80%
As a big fan of Super Mario RPG, I would love to have Geno and I think he'd fit right in with the rest of the Smash roster. Despite what a good chunk of the community seems to believe, I just don't see Daisy or Waluigi as viable newcomers, and other than Captain Toad there really are no other currently relevant Mario characters who I could see making the cut. Frankly, I don't think the Mario series is really in need of any newcomers at all. That said, if Nintendo and Square can work things out for a second time, I think it would be only natural to throw Geno fans a bone.
NOMINATIONS: Decloned Ganondorf x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Isn't that quoted from a ****ty sprite machinima from like, 2008? Don't act like that represents the Geno fanbase, dude. I'd like to think we're better than threatening mass terrorism if our guy doesn't get in.

Let me clarifiy. Back in the pre-Brawl days, you know flash animation from Newgrounds was quite hot and a couple of animation videos about SSBB called Smash Kingdom and Smash Kingdom Melee were created. Geno in those videos said that if Sakurai doesn't include him in the roster, he will blow up Japan and he actually does in SKM.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Let me clarifiy. Back in the pre-Brawl Smash days, you know flash animation from Newgrounds was quite hot and a couple of animation videos about SSBB called Smash Kingdom and Smash Kingdom Melee were created. Geno in those videos said that if Sakurai doesn't include him in the roster, he will blow up Japan and he actually does in SKM.

Yeah, I remembered that video from way back. I just didn't remember the name of the video, that's all. Frankly, I think I've mostly repressed the dark days of Brawl machinima with everyone trying to make the next Brawl Taunts with half-assed attempts at "parodies"... I'm glad that time has passed.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Geno

Chance: 25%

Want: 20%

The things Sakurai said about in the last direct seems to give him some hope for switch here but honestly I don't think it will and TBH I never used him in SMRPG(I prefer Mallow).

Isabelle Prediction: 48.65%

Nominate Lloyd Irving x5

 

[Raheem The Dream]

Dear, AEMehr ! Please be proud of me dat I AM Raheem The Perfect Legendary Godlike Magical Kid Dream!

It's finally time for Geno to be confirmed in Smash for Switch & hopefully 3DS/WiiU versions for future updated patch wishful believing for Nintendo to make a MONEY $ TREE DLC! I've been mighty busy managing for #1. Geno's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/GenoForSmashBros43DSWiiUSwitchFutureUpdatedVersion/ 2. Shantae & Risky Boots's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/ShantaeForSmashNXClub/ 3. Manic & Sonia The Hedgehog's FanBase page: https://www.facebook.com/ManicSoniaTheHedgehogs4SuperSmashBros.Switch/ 4. Izuna The Unemployed Ninja's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/Izuna4SmashSwitch/ & https://www.facebook.com/Izuna-886809501389199/ 5. Neku Sakuraba's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/Neku-Sakuraba-For-Smash-Bros4-DLC-1219797231379644/ 6. Disney's Wreck-It Ralph's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/WreckItRalph4SmashSwitch/ & Finally Lucky Number 7. Ninten's FanBase Page: https://www.facebook.com/Ninten-For-Smash-Bros-NX-andor-DLC-181980675513050/


Chance & Want: Over 100,000% Percent!

Spoiler

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Anyways, Geno was my very first inspiration to make a FanBase to represent him in this upcoming year's 2018 of SMASH BROS. & especially my personal dedication tribute to @Shorts! I'm fully aware of The Smash 4 3DS/WiiU versions development ended back then, but strongly doubted dat fun fact because Nintendo shall make Smash Bros. a Big Juggernaut Money Making Tree for DLC versions 4 Smash Bros. 3DS/WiiU & especially The Nintendo Switch! Please watch this video:

@kiteinthesky
Finally:

Haiku: We've came a long quest! It Is Time for Geno to be confirmed in SMASH! #Haiku

& espeically #Geno4Smash5

#GoodLuck

 

[Llort A. Ton]

Super Mario RPG
It is the only one just for me

Chance- 60%
One of the bolder ratings from what ive seen so far, but I think he has one of the highest shots of a third party. Sakurai knows how popular he is, and with him claiming to have considered Geno for Brawl, Smash 4 AND Smash 4 DLC, I have no doubt he will be tossed around again at the Nintendo HQ. With relations with Square being the highest theyve been in a while (Cloud already in Smash Bros, SE exclusive games like Octopath traveler on Switch), I think Geno should not be underestimated.

Want- 60%
Mario RPGs are strangely underrepresented in Smash, besides 1 stage and some trophies + music. Change that please! Geno is also a very cool character on his own.

Isabelle- 62.21%

Thwomp X 5

 

[StormC]

Chance: 15%. For a non-protagonist whose only role was in a game that's over 20 years old, his chances are surprisingly good. Sakurai has admitted to liking him and he got the costume. I don't think Square would block him appearing in Smash as long as they're signed onto this game in general (which isn't a sure thing). I can see Geno being in the game, but I think competition is tight and he could easily be passed over again. The fact that the character has basically no chance at future game appearances due to his legal situation doesn't help either.

Want: 0%. SMRPG is one of my favorite games but Geno is a pretty bland character with an admittedly cool design. Far as I can tell there's no good reason for him to be in the game besides "he's cool." I would be pretty upset if Geno got in over a whole host of other characters despite being as obscure as you can get.

 

[Aurora Jenny]

Chance: 25%. Honestly, I'm a little skeptical. He's a very unique and stylized character with a flashy style and tends to stand out quite a bit, and little wonder Sakurai has noticed him due to the fanbase and such. I'm just not sure about Square agreeing with the public, on top of that, I'm not sure how often Square caters to the customers in some things. As others have said, they have other franchises and characters they're promoting right now so unless they're offering a package deal, they may not spring for it. Instead trying for others Sakurai would be interested in. Overall, there's a lot going for and against him in either case.

Want: 75%. I'm more rooting for him because of his fanbase and I did enjoy the plucky fellow back when I first played SMRPG. Honestly, I hope he does get in because that might get Square to consider having another go at the franchise.

Nominations

Tom Nook x 5 (I'm curious what people have to say about him!)

 

[Kitty-chan]

Geno

Chance: 35%
He's owned by SE; but has plenty of demand for him, got a costume in smash 4, and I could imagine he did well on the ballot nya.

Want: 50%
Nyo objections, but I'm nyot asking for him nya.

Nyominations
Mimikyu: x5

 

[AEMehr]

geno's chance is better than it'll ever be.
but i'm doubting it.
20%

i think geno would be cool in smash, but i've grown over fawning him.
65%

 

[NintenRob]

It gives me great pleasure to say this

DOUBLE 0

What's you say? Popular? Sakurai wants him? SO WHAT!!!! Sakurai probably wants a lot of characters in Smash and he wanted him so badly, he would have been playable alongside cloud instead of just a Mii Costume. He seemed satisfied with just that. I don't think Square Enix would allow it either. And why should they? They have a large pool of ips and characters, why would they let some irrelevant side character from an incredibly old RPG that didn't even release worldwide until the Wii. Sounds dumb doesn't it?

Geno is a relic, and not in a cool retro way like Duck Hunt Duo and Ice climbers. He has no place in Smash as a Mario character and he has no place in Smash as a third party character.

Nominate Parabo and Satebo x5

Prediction 32%

 

[-crump-]

Geno
Chance: 45%
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think he’s incredibly likely.

Geno has been one of the most heavily requested characters since the days of Brawl. He’s also one of the few characters Sakurai has directly expressed interest in, considering him not once, but twice! While he didn’t appear directly in Smash4, he had the next best thing: He became an entirely original Mii Costume. Now that we know Square is not only willing to work with Sakurai, but to allow him to work with Geno, I think the character is more likely than ever.

That said, he still has a mountain to climb. Unless SMRPG is considered it’s own series, Geno would have to compete with the likes of other popularity-giants like Waluigi, Paper Mario, and Captain Toad. There’s also the issue of being owned by a third-party... will Square continue to lend their characters to Smash? Will Cloud retuen, and if so, could they share the spotlight?

However, putting all that aside, I think Sakurai truly cares about making fans happy, and delivering on one of the biggest characters in Smash speculation for the last decade? Yeah, that would make a lot of fans happy.

Want: 75%
Confession: I haven’t ever finished SMRPG. That said, I do really like Geno’s design, and I think he would look really cool fighting alongside Mario once again. He would definitely be hype, if only for the shock of his inclusion. I’m totally down for it!

Noms:
Tingle x5

 

[Tew]

Geno Chance:
60%
I think he is one of the most likely characters. With his recent Mii Costume (I think the only costume that was added alone without other costumes), Sakurai even stating he thought to put him in and the Smash Ballot likely showing Sakurai that the fans would like to see him too, there isn't a lot standing in his way. Geno is also probably one of the most Nintendo-ish third party character out there.

Geno Want:
35%
I like his design and think he could have a unique and interesting moveset but otherwise I don't really care too much either and would prefer other third party characters over him.


Nominations:
5x Slime

 

[Graizen]

Geno
Chances: 50%
Want: 100%

He was a Costume in Smash 4, Inklings were Costumes in Smash 4 as well.
Hes a high requested character, and Square Enix is in good terms with Nintendo now.
I think hes chances are good.

Nomination: Agumon x5

 

[Deleted member]

He was a Costume in Smash 4, Inklings were Costumes in Smash 4 as well.

@Opossum guess what, Chrom confirmed.
He had a costume in Smash 4.

 

[-crump-]

Sakurai probably wants a lot of characters in Smash and he wanted him so badly, he would have been playable alongside cloud instead of just a Mii Costume. He seemed satisfied with just that. I don't think Square Enix would allow it either.

This makes no sense as an argument, my guy.

The development window between DLC and a new game are not comparable. Sakurai’s time to work on characters during the final DLC period was already split between Cloud (arguably Square’s mascot), Corrin (required advertisement), and Bayonetta (the “ballot winner”). Adding Geno on top of that workload would be waaaay too much. But this is a different time, and Sakurai has a much bigger team and budget to work with for the Switch game.

Also, why wouldn’t Square allow it, exactly? They already allowed them to use the character’s likeness... in fact, Geno was one of the ONLY characters they gave Sakurai to use as a Mii Costume. If they didn’t want them to touch the character, he wouldn’t have gotten what he did.

 

[Mighty Moose]

Geno

Chance: 30%
Sakurai seems to be a fan, and he did get the Mii costume. On the other hand, it doesn't make sense for Square Enix to have a forgotten 90's throwback represent them when they could have Cloud or FFXV dude at a push. And if Sakurai likes Geno so much, why not put him in Brawl/Sm4sh?

Want: 20%
I know nothing about his character except for his popularity and people telling me he has moveset potential.

Nominating Ganon x5

 

[Wyoming]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Ashley, pre-Geno

Arle Nadja (Puyo Puyo) x261
Veteran: Lucas x246
Veteran: Mewtwo x217
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x215
Mike Jones (StarTropics) x213
Veteran: Greninja x201
Agumon x200

199-150

Black Shadow x196
Ganon x196
Impa x187
Urban Champion x170
Concept: Marth and Roy given their English VAs x170
Lycanroc x161
Bomberman x160
Dark Samus x159
Qbby (BoxBoy!) x153
Kamek x153
Travis Touchdown x152
Funky Kong x151
Music: Final Destination (Ver. 2) x150

149-100

Spyro x149
Sans (Undertale) x143
Concept: Decloned Dark Pit x142
Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x131
Lip (Panel de Pon) x127
Mipha x127
Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x125
Simon Belmont x125
Masked Link x124
Azura (Fire Emblem) x118
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x115
Neku Sakuraba (The World Ends with You) x106
Linkle x105
Octoling x105
Sylux x105
Gengar x105
Tsubasa Oribe (Tokyo Mirage Sessions ♯FE) x100
Concept: Skyrim representation x100

99-75

Wonder Red (The Wonderful 101) x98
Ryu Hayabusa x95
Cranky Kong x95
Parabo and Satebo x94
Concept: Decloned Ganondorf x93
Excitebiker x92
Thwomp x88
Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x86
Fawful (Mario & Luigi) x86
2B (Nier: Automata) x78
Tetra (The Legend of Zelda) x75

74-50

Fjorm (Fire Emblem) x72
Klonoa x70
Katrielle Layton x69
Labo related character x68
Papyrus (Undertale) x68
Concept: Fire Emblem Spear User x60
Concept: Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner x60
Zeraora (Pokémon) x58
Veronica (Fire Emblem) x55
Mimikyu x55
KOS-MOS x55
Sakura Shinguji x53
Veteran: Roy x51
Susie (Kirby) x51
Lara Croft x50

49-30:

Barbara The Bat x46
Slippy Toad x45
Sable Prince x43
Lloyd Irving x42
Steve (Minecraft) x42
Veteran: Dr. Mario x42
Concept: Wars character x39
Concept: Canon Bowser/DK/Diddy voice clips x39
Starfy x38
Ray (Custom Robo) x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: Mother Newcomer x35
Callie and Marie (Splatoon) x35
Django (Boktai) x35
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x35
Concept: Masked Dedede Final Smash x35
Nia and Dromarch (Xenoblade) x34
Doshin the Giant x32
Veteran: Bayonetta x32
Balloon Fighter x32
Dragonite x32
Rick/Coo/Kine (Kirby) x31
Primarina x30
Tingle x30
Tails x30
Snorlax x29
Tom Nook x28
Leo (FE Fates) x28
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x28
Viridi x28
Concept: Indie Character x28
9-Volt x28
Arcade Bunny x27
Hector (Fire Emblem) x 26
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x 26
Returning game mode: Smash Run x26
Ghirahim x26
Sophitia (Soulcalibur) x25
Double Day: Sheriff / Diskun x25
Prince Fluff (Kirby) x25
Tiki (Fire Emblem) x25
Concept: Style Savvy Character x25
Endou Mamoru x25
Toon Zelda x25
Stage: New Donk City x25

New entries (post-Purge, 24 and less):

Concept: Battlefield Stages x10
Mach Rider x5
Torra & Poppi x5
Slime (Dragon Quest) x5
Concept: No Mega Evolutions x1

Changes:

-Greninja bursts into the top 7 into 6th. Black Shadow knocked out of it. The race for top 7 is going to be an interesting one this time around I feel.
(That also means the top 7 currently has three veterans, as well as a concept about them)
-Kamek, Travis, and Funky break 150 noms
-Neku and Skyrim break 100 noms
-Veronica, Mimikyu, KOS-MOS, and Susie break 50 noms
-One tier abolished (29-25) since it was unneeded, really.
-"New" additions added: Mach Rider, Tora & Poppi, Slime, and No Megas.

Congrats to Bomberman for receiving his first nominations in two weeks.

 

[Kirby Dragons]

Chance: 43%

"Wanted him in Brawl" could mean multiple things. Maybe Sakurai saw him fit to be playable and tried to get him on the roster. Maybe Sakurai just likes the character, and thinks he'd be interesting playable in a Nintendo game. Maybe wanting Geno in Smash is just a way to say "Geno's cool."

Want: 0%

Extremely random, and not Daisy or Waluigi.

Nominations: Urban Champion x5

 

[BandanaWaddleDee]

Geno
Chance: 5%
I'd give a 0 if he didn't have the Mii costume.
Want: 15%
Never played the game, but he could be cool.

Isabelle Prediction: 36.66%

Nominations
Decloned Dark Pit x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

@Opossum guess what, Chrom confirmed.
He had a costume in Smash 4.

Wicked, we got Isabelle, Takamaru, Ashley, Toad, K. Rool, Tails, Knuckles, K.K. Slider, Viridi and Dunban too. Smash roster leaked.

 

[Ura]

Gino's Pizza

Chance: 40%

Geno is a very interesting case given how he was considered for both Brawl and the latest installment of Smash. Usually a lack of relevancy is the death sentence for just about any character (here's looking at you K. Rool) but it doesn't seem to be the case for Geno (or so we think?). Granted he's 3rd party (kinda?) who the relevancy rule doesn't apply to as much but even then he's not popular on the level most 3rd parties in Smash are aside from Bayo.

That being said, I don't think his popularity was as big as it was during the Brawl days and he still faces major competition. The fact that he was passed up twice does speak to how he's viewed in terms of priority. Whether or not that happens for a third time in a row remains to be seen. Geno is an oddity, no doubt about it.

Want: Abstain

I've yet to play Super Mario RPG and it's in my backlog of games to play.

Prediction: Isabella

Chance: 32%
Want: 23%

Nominations

Concept: Decloned Ganondorf X 5