Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Tew]

Ashley Chance:
40%

Ashley Want:
80%

Geno Predict: 55%

Nominations: 5x Slime

 

[Edgelord_197]

Ashley
Chance: 40%
She’s really popular in Japan. Really depends on Sakurai.

Want: 70%
She has a catchy song

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ashley
55% Chance

At first, I was a bit skeptical. The thing that pushed me over the edge was the love that the Nintendo Badge Arcade has for her. She is even being used outside of WarioWare for promotions. This is less about the series and more about the character; she clearly has a good bit of demand that is rising.

100% Want

She is adorable! I could easily see her being so cute and fun!

Nominating Spyro x 5

DAY OVER, CALCS COMING SOON.

 

[Lord-Zero]

Ashley (Warioware)

Chance: 55%

- The most popular Wario character that isn’t Wario himself. Huge presence in the Nintendo Badge Arcade and doing cameo appearances in other games, even 3rd-Party game promotion material. She’s an Assist Trophy that’s very likely to be promoted.

Want: 100%

- Yes. I would love to see her become a playable Smash fighter.

Prediction

Geno: 31%

Nominations
Katrielle Layton (Professor Layton) x3
Starfy (The Legendary Starfy) x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ashley

34.00% Chance
58.19% Want

Well, Ashley had a pretty good day. She may not have inched into either top ten, but she came close. Seems like the character is significantly more popular now than in Smash 4 days.

Quetzal77 gets five extra noms today for Ashley prediciton.

Today we have Geno, the king of Brawl speculation. Could the changing times help this doll? Rate Geno in Chance and Want. Also predict the scores for Isabelle.

 

[Deleted member]

Ashley
Chance 60%
Want 70%

Geno 38.9%

Noms-
Sable Prince x4
9 volt- x1

Next few chance and wants gonna be with mo description sadly

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ashley
Chance 60%
Want 70%

Geno 38.9%

Noms-
Sable Prince x4
9 volt- x1

Next few chance and wants gonna be with mo description sadly

Too late buddy, its Geno's day.

 

[Ze Diglett]

Geno

Chance: 35%

In my experience, writing Geno off as an absolute no-hoper since he missed the boat in Brawl and Smash 4 seems to be the hip new meme on the speculation block. And to be fair, when looking strictly at a character’s “credentials,” it can easy to jump to such a conclusion in Geno’s case; outside of a cute cameo, he’s only been in one game, and a relatively obscure one from over 20 years ago at that. Furthermore, although he’s a Mario character, he’s technically owned by Square Enix, making him third-party by technicality and thus “not worth” adding to some. Indeed, looking at the character and his history through such a narrow lens, it’s hard to imagine why such an apparent nobody would even be given a shot in Smash. However, people who take one glance at Geno and brush him off for being “too obscure” fail to consider two keys things: for one, Geno is already on Sakurai’s radar. People seem to keep forgetting this, but the man’s been pulling for Geno’s inclusion ever since the days of Brawl, even acknowledging the fan pull the character has via his Mii costume. (Yeah, remember that?) Sure, it might not be the most “business-savvy” decision to add a character that casual consumers may not recognize, but if the man himself wants him in, that’s already half the battle, lads. Besides, since when has the Smash roster been exclusive to characters deemed “recognizable?” (Barring the retro reps, the sole “exception” everyone points to, despite the existence of the FE boys in Melee, Greninja, Little Mac, Corrin, Wii Fit Trainer, and Shulk in Smash 4, hell, Jigglypuff, Sheik, the Earthbound boys, and Captain Falcon in the game AT ALL, I could go on.) We don't want every newcomer to just be an advertisement for a recent/upcoming release, do we? For another thing, we already know that Square Enix is in on the Smash party now with the inclusion of Cloud. Assuming they don’t decide to randomly pull out of the deal this time, they and Nintendo will hopefully be comfortable negotiating for characters in the future, which, if Sakurai gets his way, will mean Geno. Obviously, I wouldn’t go so far as to call Geno a shoe-in for the next Smash, considering how many other Mario characters he has to contend with (none of whom have as good a shot as Geno in my opinion, but I digress), but I simply suggest that people respect his chances, because they have never looked better.

Want: 100%

Yeah, I’m biased. Geno’s the only character I’ve ever really wanted in Smash beyond the level of “oh yeah, that’d be neat.” He’s just so cool…

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[Mario123311]

Geno
Chance: 25%
Want: 0%

Unless Captain Toad/Toad or Paper Mario replace Doc, I don't want any more Mario characters. And wasting a potential secondary Square rep just on ANOTHER Mario character just seems wasteful IMO. Nevermind I honestly... Never cared for Geno. I was always into Mr. Jumps-in-red in general but even after I played SMRPG after avoiding it thanks to hype aversion, I... just am not into him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

This day will definitely be interesting, I’m very curious to see how it’ll turn out.

Geno:

Chances: 11%

Mostly because of Sakurai’s like for the character as proven by the costume. He’s also extremely popular but I’m not sure how much that will help him.

Want: 19%
Really like the character and I loved Super Mario RPG. Not as high a priority for me because I honestly gave up due to the Square Enix situation, and the fact that Mario has a lot more characters to get excited for. Would be very pleasantly surprised to see him in.

Isabelle prediction: 45%

Nominations
Prince Sable X5

 

[Opossum]

Geno time

Chance: 5%
Still lots in his way, but he's on Sakurai's mind at least.

Want: 80%
He's a cool character.

Predicting a 44 for Isabelle.
Nominating English Marth x5

 

[Quetzal77]

Game
Chance: 10%
He did get a Mii costume, and he definitely did well on the poll... the only thing is that he would have to be added as a "classic" character unless SMRPG gets new relevancy. And as a classic character I don't think he's very high priority. I get the feeling that Sakurai won't add him. Maybe as an AT.

Want: 25%
He's cool but I never got all the hype.

Isabelle: 58.95%
Nominations: Pyra/Mythra (without Rex) x4, Neku x4, Impa x2
Edit: forgot about my extra noms

 

[Capybara Gaming]

Geno
Chance: 15% - Considered or otherwise, Square has other characters with futures to push.
Want: 0% - Can you say 'overrated?'

Prediction: Isabelle
Chance: 26.71%
Want: 49.61%

Nominations:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[TheFritzle]

Geno Chance:
20%
I don't see Geno getting a playable slot anytime soon. He's been dead for years now, and hope only just came back with his Mii fighter costume. The fact that he was the only one to get a splash screen shows that Sakurai has some interest in him, but I don't see it happening. It seemed for like a send off to me.

Geno Want:
10%
I don't care for his design or character, but I would like to see the Mario RPG's get a from representation.

Isabelle Prediction:
29.58%

Nominations:
Sylux x5

 

[A Distant Demon]

. . .have we always done these at night and im just an idiot or is this an extremely early/late end to a day?

Geno

I can't believe i'm saying this, but Geno actually has a shot this time around. Now, it isn't a big shot, but he absolutely has one. Sakurai has now considered Geno at LEAST twice! There are some characters extremely jealous of that. Not to mention he got a mii costume out of nowhere. An "irrelevant" third party getting so much focus is pretty damn impressive.

But the question remains. . .if he was considered twice and got a mii costume. . . why only that? Why not playable status? Something must obviously be stopping Sakurai from going through with it. What this is. . .we can't say. Maybe it's Square, maybe it's Sakurai. But either way, something kept him out for SMash For, and that may happen again for Smash Switch. Either way, Geno's chances have never looked brighter now that he has appeared in smash once before.

Want: 65%
7 years ago this probably would have been 100%. Less than a year ago, it would have been 0. Nh how things change
I've warmed up to a lot of things, and Geno is one of them. I just think an anthropomorphic robot with a bunch of gadgets could be fun.

Noms
Marth and Roy English VAs x5

 

[slambros]

Geno

Chance: 35%
He's been a planned inclusion so many times that he's gonna be there eventually, and it might as well be this time around.

Want: 100%
He'd be a really cool addition in my opinion!

Nominations:
Arle Nadja x5

 

[Troykv]

Geno...

Chance: 20%...

This one is... weird... Geno technically isn't the kind of character you would expect in Smash Bros... but he's incredible popular, and even Sakurai recognize his potential as a Smash Character... while isn't the most likely idea, he is at least in the creator's mind already, a with a positive picture (unlike Chrom).

Want: 55%

I admire Geno's fans dedication; and he would be fun to play... Never stop believing~

______________________________________

Prediction:

Isabelle: 35.5% (I can already feel how this day will go)

Nominations

KOS-MOS x5

 

[Runic_SSB]

Geno

Chance: 0%
He was only in one game, and that game is 20 years old. Being really loud and annoying won't change that.

Want: 0%
Him getting in would send a horrible message; that you can get literally any character in if you destroy forum discussions and brigade online polls from communities you're not a part of. Luckily Sakurai can tell when something is actually a popular request or is just a vocal minority (otherwise Smash 4 would've been Melee 2).

Isabelle prediction; 25%

Nominations:
Travis Touchdown x2
Funky Kong x3

 

[PsychoIncarnate]

Geno

Chance: 50%

I'll put it on a coin flip. He could get in. Getting that mii costume was incredible and unforeseeable. Sakurai recognized him, which is a lot more than other characters. That is so close to actually being a smash character. Just replace the mii's head and it's practically one right there. And change the narrator to saying Geno. Though the moveset isn't really that close to what Geno would get. But, y'know.

Want: 100%

He's awesome and from one of my favorite games of all time, Super Mario RPG.

 

[MasterWarlord]

Geno Chance 3%: Geno is the most obscure character who is seriously proposed for Smash Bros, period. It is flying entirely on the ballot performance. The fact Sakurai has somehow acknowledged this incredibly obscure character is shocking, but I imagine the Geno Mii costume mostly just happened because Sakurai happened to have the rights from Square at the time anyway, so he may as well throw the Geno folks a bone. It is possible, but if Geno gets in, I would expect almost the entire roster to be nothing but ballot choices with just one token advertisement or two.

Geno Want 5%: I don't dislike him, and I like Super Mario RPG. I just find it bizarre that people rallied around such a totally random character. Why not Fawful? Why not someone from the best RPG, TTYD? Heck, Geno is so random, I may as well go all the way and advocate for my favorite SMRPG character, Booster. Geno's popularity train could never have started in the modern day, he's basically just a character exclusive to the Smash Bros speculation scene. Fawful, Cackletta, Booster, Mallow, Valentina, Smithy, Crump, Grodus, Beldam, Rawk Hawk, Grubba, Tutankoopa, Tubba Blubba...The list goes on for Mario RPG characters I would take over Geno.

Nominate Fawful x5

 

[Roberk]

Chance: 1%
Gotta give that 1% for the fact that almost anything can make it in nowadays, but I'm still skeptical. No relevance, legal issues from Square Enix... are guns still a problem in Smash? He had one on his Mii Costume and it wasn't some magic Bayonetta pistol or a Star Fox blaster, Geno's gun looks like a straight up rifle. A small and puny rifle, but something I thought was forbidden in Smash nonetheless.

Want: 0%
I feel like I need to start cracking down on some of these characters, IMO Geno should not be in Smash. Only appeared in one Mario spinoff 2 decades ago and I don't see much appeal. Let go of the past, let some more relevant and impactful newcomers in. Putting Geno in just seems like an awful decision for business and fans since a lot of Smash is casuals, they'll have no idea who this guy is. Do you want a Mario RPG rep? I'd love Fawful, he's actually relevant to the Mario & Luigi series by appearing in pretty much every game and those games getting remakes. Or add Paper Mario, IS is pretty easy to work with and who doesn't love a new Mario? Geno is one of those examples of "bottom of the barrel" who I hope never make it in because someone like that getting in would just destroy all realistic discussion for Smash forever, and I still feel like I'm just getting started with the community after being in it for so many years.

Isabelle prediction: 30%

Noms: Azura x5

 

[Organization XIII]

Chance: 0%
Let's be real, if Sakurai could make it happen he would already be in the game since Sakurai wants him in just as much as his fans.

Want: 80%
Geno was a cool part of SMRPG, I would love to see him added I just don't expect it.

noms: Qbby X5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Geno

Chance: 10%

Both companies have to agree with the character's inclusion. Sakurai may want him but Square might not.

Want: ABSTAIN

Got an SNES mini with Mario RPG. Should play that sometime.

Predictions for Isabelle: 29.63%

Nominations: Canon DK/Bowser/Diddy voices x5

 

[wildvine47]

Geno

Chance: 30% - I still see it as more unlikely than not, but Geno's chances are probably the highest they've ever been. He's been directly acknowledged by Sakurai himself, and the guy's supposedly wanted to add him ever since Brawl. Plus, Square is already on board for Smash, and we got a Mii costume for the guy of all things. That's a lot of things going for a character long thought to be impossible. Unfortunately, there's still a lot of competition, both from Mario characters as well as third party ones, even third party ones from within Square Enix. It's an uphill battle, but fans of the possessed puppet actually have reason to hope now.

Want: 60% - I'm torn on Geno. I never understood why he was such a popular request for Smash Bros. or where that idea came from in general. He's a one-off party member from a SNES Mario RPG who largely didn't make a splash until his sudden and random burst of popularity before Brawl. That, and he's a very, very irrelevant and unimportant third party from a company that has so much more to offer in lieu of him. But at the same time, as a Ridley fan, I know what it's like to support a character that everyone tells you is impossible and will never happen. Both groups are still around today, but have been whittled away by time and with every Smash Bros. that passes without their addition. I may not support Geno myself, and he may well tear the very important "iconic third party" rule asunder with his addition, but I'd be happy for his fans who held fast and hoped for him all this time. And if he doesn't make it again? Me and the rest of the Ridley old guard will see you again come the next Smash. After all, it's pretty hard to kill a ghost puppet.

Prediction

Isabelle: 22.22% - Personally, Villager perfectly reps Animal Crossing alone in Smash, and I don't see what another character would really bring to the table. But I'd be a fool to ignore just how big of a series AC is, and Isabelle is definitely the breakout star. Expecting a lot of optimism befitting of her personality tomorrow, but the lack of an obvious moveset beyond what Villager already covers will definitely hurt her.

Nominations

Impa x 5

 

[NeonBurrito]

The Guy Who Every Time He Drives and Rhymes a Rhyme, He Damages His Right Eye More Than Nine Times Ninety Nine

Chance - 30%

We know for a fact that not only is Sakurai aware of Geno's popularity, but how he had been considered not once, but twice. However, something has clearly been holding him back all of this time. What that something is, we really don't know for certain, but it is likely Square Enix's involvement with Smash.

Now that the Smash 4 DLC has put them in the "Smash Family of 3rd Parties," I could definitely see something like this going down, but I think Square Enix might be against it. They'd likely rather put another one of their more relevant / iconic characters in the game. Still, I think he has a better shot than most people are giving him.

Want - 25%

Honestly, this score would be a lot higher in one scenario: the idea of having a Paper Mario and/or Mario & Luigi character in first. I think Geno is a cool guy, but if we get him over Paper Mario or a Mario & Luigi character (best pick for a Mario & Luigi character is obvious as hell), I won't lie and be a little upset.

The idea of representing all of the Mario RPG franchises with a non-longer relevant character from a decades old third party game rather than a more relevant, well-known, and in house franchises just really rubs me the wrong way.

Nominations:
Impa x5

 

[Dr. Jojo Phantasma]

Geno
Chance: 50%
Sakurai has acknowledged that Geno has strong support since Brawl, and is interested in bringing him as a newcomer. I am also sure he has a good spot on the ballot. However, what stands in the way is Square-Enix and Geno's chances depend upon Cloud returning or another FF character such as Noctis making the roster so that way Sakurai can try to negotiate putting Geno in the roster.

Want: 100%
Like Ashley, Geno is another pre-Brawl support newcomer that I feel quite strongly about. Third time is the charm and I would like to play as the actual Geno and not a cosplaying Mii this time hopefully.

Isabelle: 32.56%

x5 to Simon Belmont

 

[MilkMaiden]

Geno:
Chance: 80%
Not only is he the most popular character in the RPG games including Paper Mario, but with the costume being introduced in Smash 4 that means Sakurai knows how wildly popular he is. And with Cloud being included it shows that Square is willing to let their characters be in, so I think Geno has a really fair shot at being in he next game to represent the Mario RPGs.

Want: 60%
Geno is probably my favorite character in all the Mario RPG games. I used him a lot as a kid and even in my most recent playthrough of SMRPG. So I just really hope he gets in~~

-----
Nominations - KOS-MOS x 5

 

[Troykv]

Geno:
Chance: 80%
Not only is he the most popular character in the RPG games including Paper Mario, but with the costume being introduced in Smash 4 that means Sakurai knows how wildly popular he is. And with Cloud being included it shows that Square is willing to let their characters be in, so I think Geno has a really fair shot at being in he next game to represent the Mario RPGs.

Want: 60%
Geno is probably my favorite character in all the Mario RPG games. I used him a lot as a kid and even in my most recent playthrough of SMRPG. So I just really hope he gets in~~

Don't you want to nominate any character?

 

[MilkMaiden]

Don't you want to nominate any character?

Oops I forgot to add it in my bad, I edited my original post.

 

[Deleted member]

Pinocchio w/ lasers

Chance: 0.1%
Yes. Yes I still think he's super unlikely. I've talked about Geno several times in the past, so let me just quote what I said about him...

I really don't think Geno has a chance.
There were obviously some complications on Cloud, and I doubt Nintendo would be willing to pay so much money for a character that would only appeal to part of the core fanbase, which is already a vocal minority.
The casual players probably wouldn't even know who he is.

Geno is basically at the same situation as Banjo, except

1. Not owned by a direct competitor
2. He was actually considered in the past
3. However, he has no future
4. He's not the star of his own franchise
5. And he's 10 times less iconic than Banjo (who is not iconic)

He may have been considered by Sakurai and even got a Mii costume, something that other pre-brawl fan favorites Isaac and Krystal didn't get, but... just because a character's been considered and achknowledged in the past, doesn't mean they'll get in.
Third party characters are added to cause hype, but Geno isn't third party - he's a Nintendo character that happens party company and therefore will not cause hype outside of the echo chamber that is Smashboards (And other places on the internet where people support him I guess, but my point still stands), and therefore I cannot see him getting in.

Want: 40%
All of what I said above was purely unbiased.
I've never played a Mario RPG game aside from Dream Team, but I am interested in them and Geno looks cool enough. I don't support him as of now but there's a very good chance that it'll change in the future.

Mimikyu x3, Susie x2

 

[Deleted member]

Geno

Chance: 25%
He's very popular, was considered for Smash before, and got a Mii Costume. His status as a Square character has very clearly held him back before, and who knows if Square would cooperate to put in a dead character when it's likely there were issues with someone as iconic as Cloud. Even though the stars may be aligning for him, I have a hard time giving him a better score.

Want: 0%
Don't care.

Isabelle Prediction: 31.73%

Nominating KOS-MOS x5

 

[MasterOfKnees]

Geno

Chance: 25% - We know that Sakurai still likes the idea, and we also know that he can get the rights, so I think he's at least got a decent chance. Only major issues I can see getting in his way is him being a lower priority 3rd party choice due to his obscurity, and Square Enix maybe wanting someone who they can benefit from more themselves. I think this is probably his best shot yet though, even if he doesn't make the base roster I could still see him as DLC (although I don't factor that into my score).

Want: 70% - I really like the idea, simply because it'd be amazing if a character got in on what would solely be popularity amongst the fanbase. With how much Smash has become about marketing the latest products it'd be fantastic to see that a character can make it in regardless of their situation, sometimes all a character really should need is being a cool addition. I also have a lot of nostalgia for Brawl speculation, and of course Geno was more or less the face of that, and he's always seemed like he'd be a cool fighter too, so it'd be a bit of a special addition, even if I've never played SMRPG (although it's on my bucket list).

Nominations:
Greninja x5

 

[Esquelen]

Geno:
Chance: 35%
Sakurai has always wanted Geno as a character, but he just can not because he's from Square.

That company is not going to give permission to Nintendo just to put a character that they do not care, so that's why we had Cloud as a character, and Geno as a Mii costume.

Possibilities there are, but for me that we will never see him as a fighter, casual users will have no idea who Geno is, not even in the Super Mario RPG game.

People will say that casuals did not know of the existence of Ice Climbers, Mr. Game & Watch, etc ... but these are retro and symbolic characters, Geno is just a character in an RPG game of Mario.

And if we were to represent Mario's RPG games, it would be Paper Mario.

Want: 70%
The character like, I never played Mario RPG but from what I've seen, I totally fell in love with his soundtracks and his characters.

I hope to make a mistake and see it as Newcomer.

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Geno: 10%
Sakurai having a hard-on for him for some reason helps him, but I think unlike K. Rool and Inkling, Geno's Mii Costume didn't seem like a step-up to a playable appearance.

Want: 0%
Has extremely subpar credentials for both a Mario character and a third party character (a third party character that didn't even bother to get its own game) Has made very little impact on gaming history and the fact he has a chance to get in as a representative of the Mario series over Toad, Paper Mario, Pauline, Daisy, Waluigi, King Boo, Petey Piranha, E. Gadd, Nabbit, Koopa Troopa, King-Bob Omb, Kamek, Baby Mario, Metal Mario, Goomboss, Boom-Boom, Birdo, Wart, Dry Bones, a regular Boo, Chain Chomp, the Viruses from Dr. Mario, Toadette, Lakitu and even the Green Sprixie Princess doesn't sit right by me as a Mario fan.
(In a game where Toad doesn't get in as a playable character, Geno has no business imo)

Square Enix even crossed over with Mario twice through Mario Hoops 3-on-3 and Mario Sports Mix, so even Ninja, Moogle, Cacutar, Black Mage and White Mage all have the dubious honor to be playable in more Mario games than Geno.

The fact that Nintendo's flag ship series' next representative could be something with the same amount of non-cameo appearances as Perry the Parasol because of what would be the most audacious case of Sakurai bias possible is something that I'd rather not face.

(I also don't like his design)

 

[VexTheHex]

Geno
Chance - 25%
Sakurai has at least made notes of him, but he is a old relic, side character of a 3rd party for sure.
Want - 10%
Never understood the hype and bandwagon that started for him in the Smash community. He isn't bad by any means though. If he gets in, good for his supporters. But it would be a odd choice, especially for a 3rd party.

Nominations 5x Greninja

 

[ShinyRegice]

Geno chances: 16%
He's a supporting character from a single game from decades ago who has been barely reused ever since and is third-party owned, so honestly giving him a decent-ish chance score seems kind of surreal to me. But we now know that Sakurai had the character in mind as a contender, which means the "vocal minority" argument can't be used to completely dismiss him at least. Being the representative of a game with a quite notable legacy alongside unique moveset potential might make him an interesting candidate from Sakurai's perspective. It helps that Super Mario RPG was released worldwide on Wii U about the same time as Sakurai likely decided the roster; I would like to say the SNES Mini boosts his chances but in reality it was probably too late to have an influence on Geno's chances.

However, Geno's merits might not be enough to overcome his major problems I described in the first line of the paragraph above. Those will likely cause Geno to be considered, but quickly denied a place in the roster. The reason why I think he has the possibility to overcome this is the Mii costume, as it will probably be a way for Sakurai to gauge his popularity: if it sold considerably better than most other Mii costumes, then it might be interpreted by Sakurai as a sign that he should give him higher priority to be included in the playable roster, possibly enough to actually make it. We however aren't going to get him over Cloud, and how barebones the Final Fantasy content is in Smash 4 DLC might be a reason to worry about his potential return. There's also competition with other Square Enix characters, such as the prospect of getting another FF character or one from another IP such as Chrono Trigger.

Geno want: 20%
Sounds like kind of cool, but I have zero nostalgia towards Super Mario RPG. Due to better familiarity, I'd personally go towards Paper Mario to represent a Mario RPG spin-off series.

Isabelle prediction: 35.03%

Nominating:
Concept: veteran character artworks recycled from Smash 3DS/Wii U x4
Playable newcomer: Mimikyu x1

Edit: fixed a typo almost two months later. Yeah I'm like that.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Geno
Chance: 8%
Sakurai wants him, he has a mii outfit which may boost chances(as many predicted for K. Rool and Ashley's chances yesterday) and Sakurai's obviously approached Square. Square themselves are less likely to want to promote Geno than Final Fantasy or one of their other myrid of current games. I'm not sure Nintendo would be down with the inclusion of Geno in Smash when the Mario cast are their pride and joy either. The fans certainly want him...

...but I sure as hell don't.

Want: 0%
Geno? More like; Gee. No.

If I could give negative scores I would. This is by far the character in Smash speculation I dislike the most; him getting in over Toad/Captain Toad, Paper Mario, Waluigi, Daisy, Nabbit, etc would be a kick in the **** for general Mario fans everywhere. He's a one time side character who frankly, isn't even the most interesting character in his own game.

General dislike for this one time side character getting in over more established Mario cast members aside, I don't really see the appeal in a beam based moveset which seems to be suggested for him a lot. ROB has the beam thing down with Samus occasionally dipping in thanks to her Final Smash. He could do buffs I guess with Geno Boost, but when 'can get slightly stronger' is your biggest unique appeal I'm not impressed.

I'd actually much prefer Mallow if we had to have a Mario RPG character as a weather based moveset gives you far more variety than shooting a collection of beams even if he'd probably mildly overlap with Pikachu's Thunder.

If Geno wants to get me on board, he's better off returning to the Mario series first. Whether it's through Mario Kart, Tennis, an appearance in the latest Mario mainline game or reoccurance in the Paper Mario or Mario and Luigi series I don't mind, but right now Geno's inclusion would be as annoying to me as Kiddy Kong's inclusion would be to DK fans over their beloved K. Rool, Dixie, Cranky and Funky options or say...Adam Malkovich getting in over Ridley for Metroid fans.

Isabelle prediction: 48%

Nomination:
Fire Emblem Heroes Summoner X 5

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Pinocchio

Chance: 35%
Want: 0%

Sakurai likes him, and he has a rabid fanbase. Sm4sh has shown third parties are a non-issue and he got the Mii costume, so he’s definitely visible.

But ugh, no thanks. At all.

I never understood all the support for him in the first place. A (i) third party (ii) one-off character who’s (iii) spin-off only from (iv) over twenty years ago (v) with no future who’s (vi) not exactly iconic. Any one of those points is used as a hit against other characters we’ve rated so far, so why is a character with all six better?

If Geno gets in above Daisy, that is just a royal **** you to Daisy fans. And feel free to replace “Daisy” with “Waluigi” for another Mario rep, “Midna” or “Skull-Kid” as one-offs who actually bothered to get a remake, or “Doomguy” or “Dovahkiin” for third parties whose games made immense impacts.

Geno’s one of those few characters I actively don’t want because he does hit all the criteria for irrelevance. There are too many characters I want who are denied by various arguments above, so someone with that many hits against him should not be considered a Nintendo All-Star because of nothing but a vocal fanbase. Give him a trophy in the next game and leave it at that.

Prediction for Isabelle: 29.6%
Nom: something from Skyrim x5

 

[Deleted member]

There are too many characters I want who are denied by various arguments above, so someone with that many hits against him should not be considered a Nintendo All-Star because of nothing but a vocal fanbase.

This is actually a pretty good point.
If Geno gets in over characters Sakurai denied in the past for being "irrelevant" or "not well known somewhere", it would be very hypocritical of him.
I don't have anything against Geno personally, but it's still something I should've mentioned in my own post.

 

[Cosmic77]

Geno

Chance: 5%
People are reading too much into Sakurai. Even if he considered Geno in Brawl, obviously he didn't go very far with the idea, as there isn't any data that suggests progress was made with Geno. Same thing happened in Smash 4, but this time, Sakurai ignored Geno and looked at obtaining the rights for a different SE character instead, despite Geno being more heavily requested worldwide than Cloud.

Even if Sakurai likes Geno, there's two major obstacles preventing him from getting in. One is Square Enix. The other is his total irrelevancy. Combine those two and you've got yourself a VERY low-priority character.

Want: 0%
Absolutely not. Give me Waluigi, Daisy, Toad, Pauline, Birdo, or virtually any other Mario character aside from Geno. This one-off
character is criminally overrated. And poor Mallow is criminally underrated.

Isabelle prediction: 36.2%

Nominations: Mipha x5