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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

FancySmash

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 25, 2014
Messages
1,136
Location
The elegant battlefield.
An edge in the case

Chance: 1%

Interesting situation here. First of all, we'd only be getting a playable Edgeworth if Pheonix Wright is playable. This in of itself isn't even guaranteed, as even if one of the spots was getting another rep, there's competition from other francfranchises. That's not even considering rivals from other 3rd parties and even 1st party options. It's a bit silly to speculate a secondary character to me when we don't even have the main character of the series. Granted, I believe Ace Attorney has a pretty good shot at Smash, but there are still too many what ifs here. Now, if Pheonix Wright is one of the last two DLC... there's basically 0 chance he's an echo. There isn't any precedent to DLC characters coming with an echo. Surprisingly, his chances are higher as an alt, which might not be the best fit for him. In a bizarre way, it's kinda similar to Dixie Kong's scenario, where she could be an echo, but a semi clone probably works better.

Want: 30%

When I put it all together, the idea of him being an echo plus the idea of being an alt, I kinda become ambivalent to the idea. I think if Pheonix Wright himself were already in the game, I could see this being higher, but as things are now, there are too many factors at play to feel overly strongly of him being in the game.

Nominations
X5 to Eggman if I can.
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,043
You're saying that Nintendo would have moved up a fighter just to match them with a pair of promotional Mii Costumes? That seems kind of backwards, if not outright impossible, given how late Mii Costumes are apparently picked and the fact that it would require releasing a character at least 3 months before schedule.
Nintendo/Sakurai would've been aware of release schedule. So, they could've picked the characters based on that. It's not that far fetched as Nintendo would've known development of Rise by late 2019.
 
D

Deleted member

Guest
Edgeworth Echo (or alt I guess)

Chance: 5%
He’s simply not happening as an alt. There’s way too much of a personality difference for him to be a simple reskin. An echo though? Very possible depending on the moveset, and seeing as he’d have to be DLC, even the barrier of him potentially being a higher effort Echo isn’t that much of a hurdle. The only reason I rate this so low is because Phoenix has to happen, and then we’d need an Echo included in the Challenger Pack, which is unprecedented. Although Pyra and Mythra did happen so it’s not too out of the ordinary, even if that is different.

Want: 95%
Edgeworth is a top 3 Ace Attorney character on a bad day; of course I’d want him. Better than Phoenix for sure. Miles has one of the best arcs in the series with a fantastic design & Investigations is arguably better than the main games. Only not 100% because I’d hate to see him as an alt as that would butcher him and potentially Phoenix too.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Nintendo/Sakurai would've been aware of release schedule. So, they could've picked the characters based on that. It's not that far fetched as Nintendo would've known development of Rise by late 2019.
But if their goal was to promote Rise, there would have been no reason to set a Capcom fighter to release close to it, unless the character was Monster Hunter.

It makes no sense to assume that a Capcom fighter had to be the March reveal just because they had two promotional Miis there.
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,043
But if their goal was to promote Rise, there would have been no reason to set a Capcom fighter to release close to it, unless the character was Monster Hunter.

It makes no sense to assume that a Capcom fighter had to be the March reveal just because they had two promotional Miis there.
I say it's more of gut feeling. 50/50. I can't say for sure how far Nintendo/Sakurai look ahead of schedule, but my theory isn't out of realm of possibility.
It could be that next Capcom simply missed timing with Rise release. Or maybe not.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Edgeworth as an Echo/Alt of Phoenix Wright

Chance 1 - So like all the other days we've done like this, let's break it down. First, Phoenix gets in Smash. I'd love that, but after the last wave of costumes I'm not feeling super high on it. Not impossible though and Phoenix is a likely front runner. Then Edgeworth needs an echo or an alt. I doubt we get any more echos here. Not sure if a reference through an alt counts here but I assume it that would happen. I don't think it counts though so I'm not factoring it in. A named echo would actually make a ton of sense given that they'd probably be fairly similar. But IDK, I don't exactly see it.

Want 100 - Hey for once I'm 100ing one of these for the character. First I'll just say that part of my score is because it means Phoenix is in Smash and he's one of my most wanted. The other part is because I acutally quite like Edgeworth and getting 2 AA characters would make me insane with hype. Would be all in for this.

Predictions:
Bill Rizer -7.31 (think we actually have a solid sleeper here perhaps)

Noms:
Riptor x10
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
116
Abstain. I feel sinful for not knowing much about Ace Attorney, but alas...

Noms: Corvo x5

Predictions: Bill Rizer: 14.2%
 

NintenRob

Rising YouTuber
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5,562
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Australia
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trpdm.wilton
Edgeworth as an echo

Chance 0%
I don't know much about ace attorney, but I don't need to know anything. I don't think we are getting any echoes as DLC.
Want 0%
I have no connection to this franchise so I have no interest in an echo. I'd rather see echoes fir characters in the base game.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego xmax
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,436
Edgeworth as an echo

Chance 0%
I don't know much about ace attorney, but I don't need to know anything. I don't think we are getting any echoes as DLC.
Want 0%
I have no connection to this franchise so I have no interest in an echo. I'd rather see echoes fir characters in the base game.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego xmax
Keep in mind folks, this rating consists of him being either an echo OR an alt.
 
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NintenRob

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trpdm.wilton
Keep in mind folks, this rating consists of him being either an echo OR an alt.
Ah didn't see that, I don't think he'll be an alt either though. I think alts are being reserved more for those who lack a true personality from now on.
 

TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Edgeworth as Pheonix's echo or alt

5% Chance

I would give Phoenix about at 15 or so if we rated him now. This might just be me, but the Capcom costumes with Pythra make me feel a little hesitant on any capcom character. I would personally say gun to my head Phoenix would be the horse I would bet on, but even then I am skeptical of Capcom as a whole. That being said, doing Edgworth as an alt alongside Phoenix would make sense. Most of the general pieces for a Phoenix moveset could easily be applied to Edgeworth as well. But this relies on Phoenix actually getting in for this to happen, and that's the rub. Right now I just am not sold on any Capcom character being in the final two. I should be putting out a writeup on who I think the final two are in Newcomer Speculation relatively soon, but I have been occupied.

Tux.jpg

In related news, say hi to Tux!

100% Want

Look, I am a fan of Phoenix. I know plenty of people that are too. Honestly, he would be a perfect fit for Smash. Getting Edgeworth would be icing on the cake though. AAI2 is a top 3 Ace Attorney game for free, it improved on the first one so hard. Yes I am still salty we never got a localization. Hopefully those two get released in a collection someday too. I know I would buy it. But yeah, Edgeworth would be awesome to have in alongside Phoenix. I would love for this to happen.

Rean Schwarzer x 60
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Here comes an updated autopsy report.

Chance: oof

Yeah... not happening in this pass. We don't even freaking have the star of the show himself yet. And UNTIL Phoenix Wright gets in, this rating is gonna stay at a big, fat 0. That's all that really needs to be said about this- why are we even rating potential echoes for characters who aren't even in the game? Literally the ONLY time a character has ever gotten an echo at the same time as their debut was the Belmonts. Edgeworth likely isn't gonna be an alt, either.

Want: 50% or so
Phoenix Wright would definitely be a cool edition, and the list of other Ace Attorney reps who could feasibly works boils down to the other two primary defense attorneys (Apollo Justice and Athena Cykes) and Miles Edgeworth, Phoenix's longtime rival.

Noms: Reimu Hakurei rerate x5
 

AirMac1

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 23, 2018
Messages
462
Miles Edgelord

Chance: 2%
Like most people have said, if Pheonix got in the chance would be a lot higher. He’s not in though, so I’m giving Miles a low score.

Want: 60%
The Pheonix Wright games a really cool, so seeing Pheonix and Miles get in would be awesome.

Prediction: Bill Rizer 20%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep xMAX
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x236
Estelle Bright x235
Tetra x230
Senator Armstrong x200
Riptor x190
Todd Snap x190

200 - 151

Sackboy x180
Corvo Attano x180
Meat Boy x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x155

150 - 101

Junpei (Zero Escape) x145
[Rerate] Louie x145
Rean Schwarzer x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Echo (Bowser) x123
Conker x120
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Gunvolt x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x90
[Rerate] Tails x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Garchomp x77
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Demi-Fiend x55
Ratchet & Clank x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Springtrap x40
Plague Knight x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Reimu x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x15
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Gene x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x5
Hatsune Miku x5
Firebrand x1

Carmen Sandiego steals second place from Estelle Bright. Riptor takes sixth place from Sackboy. Todd Snap ties with Riptor and causes Sackboy to retreat out of the top seven.

Boss: Rayquaza soars past 150 noms.

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku dances past 100 noms.

Ratchet & Clank blast past 50 noms.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Lawyer superpower #3: basic logic

Chance: 2%
I think Phoenix has as good a chance as any character to get in. He'd make more sense than most at this point in time. However Edgeworth is on much flimsier ground. For one, I'd say there's no way he's an alt of Phoenix unless Phoenix is completely neutered of personality and everything that makes him unique, because you could not get more different than these two. That's... kind of the point, they're rivals, two sides of the same coin. With that possibility eliminated, all that remains is the Echo, which I won't dismiss since we did technically get Pyra and Mythra as basically the same character with different stats and specials. But I see that as an exception rather than something to expect again.

Want: abstain
Again, I don't like to have separate characters as alts. And especially not Edgeworth as an alt of Phoenix, that would be criminal. Edgeworth as an Echo though? That would be 100%

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Bill Rizer prediction: 16.8%
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
267
Miles Edgeworth echo/alt
Abstaining for the moment, might write something later if the mood strikes me.

Predictions
Bill Rizer: 6.3%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
I meant to just tack it on with Lyncario's VIdol noms, since I didn't wanna start from 0. I just personally consider Miku the only semi-viable option under that category so I just listed her alone.
Oh okay. I'll edit the nominations them. In the future you should use the full name, or at least some other shortened version like "the Vidol concept" so that others who might not know don't get confused as to what's being nominated.
 

Flyboy

Smash Hero
Joined
Aug 26, 2010
Messages
5,288
Location
Dayton, OH
Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo
Chance:
0%
Considering this is for DLC, this is predicated on Phoenix Wright making it in. I do not think we will be getting any echo fighters in DLC at all, and Edgeworth would absolutely not be a Phoenix alt unless they changed all his animations and the skin for the assistants that will likely help and possibly the final smash too depending on the route they take...which means he'd have to be an echo, so see my first take. In future games, especially if Phoenix gets into this one, I could absolutely see this, but in this game (especially considering Phoenix could be getting pre- and post-timeskip alts) it's a nada.

Want: 80% (As an echo)
Phoenix Wright is one of my most-wanted characters at this point, so obviously I want him in, but as others have said the Investigations games are awesome and Edgeworth is just as important a character as Phoenix. I'd LOVE an Edgeworth echo. They could go all out with new animations, change up his assistant to Kay or Gumshoe, give him Investigations references, but he still would be not a ton of work since he could use a lot of the same kit as Phoenix. As an alt, I say no way, but as an echo I'm a huge yes, so I'll give it about an 80 to cover my bases.

Nominations: Corvo x10
 

Yiptap

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 13, 2021
Messages
1,315
Location
The Flat Eric cult
Edgelord

Chance: 0%
Even if Phoenix got in, I can't see this happening. For starters, I'm dead certain that we won't get any echos in the DLC pass. As for an alt... no way that's gonna happen. Phoenix and Edgeworth are so different from each other. One's a defense attorney, the other is a prosecutor. How the hell could they work as alts? Overall, This isn't the tiniest bit likely.

Want: 100% (for echo) 0% (for alt)
Phoenix Wright is my most wanted. If Edgeworth got in as Phoenix's echo, then Phoenix would already be in. Most wanteds aside, Edgeworth would make a really great echo. As said multiple times on this thread, Edgeworth would focus on attack and Phoenix would focus on defense. As for an alt... No. Edgeworth wouldn't work at all as an alt AT ALL. You would need to change Edgeworth's victory poses, taunts, animations, so much! Edgeworth could either work very well as an echo, or very terrible as an alt.

Noms: Meat Boy x 10

Bill Rizer: 15%
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Calcs!

Concept: Skullgirls rep
1.71% Chance - 54.64% Want
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji Inue Houji by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 1.60%

Peppino
0.00% Chance - 23.00% Want
Yes, you read that right. Peppino got a perfect 0%. This ties him with Brash the Bear and the Unsafe Wiimote Guy (and the DMV) as the least likely character ever, and lands him a spot as the undisputed least likely third party character. As for want, it was predictably polarized, with the majority of scores landing in the 0-10% range and a pair in 99-100% (and BowserKing gave , as usual).
The winners of predictions were ahemtoday ahemtoday DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire and AirMac1 AirMac1 with the exact score of 0.00%! This nets each of you 15 extra noms, congratulations! Additionally, for their almost exact prediction of 0.05%, GoodGrief741 GoodGrief741 and DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 both win 10 extra noms. At a total of 45 extra noms this is probably the biggest haul ever one for a single day!

On a less exciting note, all of today's calcs fall in the Less Likely Than Goku category.

 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,932
Location
winnipeg
Bill Ryzer

Chance: 10%. Given that Contra has quite a bit of success, Bill Ryzer’s chance is quite decent. But then again, it is also a possibility that he could be a spirit and/or Mii Costume, depending on what comes first.

Want: 50%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him and Samus ganging up on Ridley and Dark Samus. Overall, he would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Bioshock Protagonist (5%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Ender Dragon and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza
 
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TCT~Phantom

Smash Master
Writing Team
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Dec 10, 2013
Messages
3,965
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TCT~Phantom
Bill

1% chance

If the thread was about how likely the character is to get into smash eventually, Bill would probably do quite well. Outside of Alucard and Bomberman, he makes the most sense as a Konami rep. Contra is one of the last few big NES era franchises that do not have a rep, alongside Ninja Gaiden. The problem is that I personally doubt we will get a Konami newcomer as DLC right now. That Bomberman costume to me implies Konami is not getting anything else right now.I personally think Mii costumes from a company are a bad sign, so I am not confident here.

100% want

Contra is good, I would love some old school love. Personally, I love it when older parts of gaming history are given some love. Castlevania in base game is a great example of that. Really, it’s just a cool idea that would slot right into Smash. I would love it if down the line in Ultimate DX we get Hayabusa, Bill, and a Tetris stage. Then the NES would feel almost...complete if that makes sense.

Rean Schwarzer x 10

Bioshock 2.23%
 

ahemtoday

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 30, 2020
Messages
874
Guess I'm coming in under the gun here, huh? (If this doesn't count or anything, let me know.)

Miles Edgeworth

Chance: 1%


To start with, I'm absolutely certain that we're not getting any echoes in this pass. I wasn't on here at the time, but I said we wouldn't get any post-game echoes and I was right on that, at least up to now. If we do get post-game echoes, I think it'll be at the end of DLC development. Even still, I could easily see us not getting any. Or maybe not getting any for DLC characters, because what happens if someone buys the Echo Pass but not FP2?

And the other thing is alts. I think people drastically overrate how much alts would work these days. Personally, I don't see it. We don't get alt characters for most characters, and I don't think that's going to be more common going forward.

Want: 37.5%

An odd rating because it's basically split between Edgeworth as an alt and Edgeworth as an echo. I would not want to see Edgeworth as an alt doing all of Phoenix's animations. Or really any Ace Attorney character as an alt. In fact, there's a case to be made that we shouldn't do characters as alts - while I don't know if I fully agree with that statement, I see the reasoning and do think we should only use it in special circumstances rather than just cramming every mildly-related character onto the same slot. So that's a 0%.

As an echo, however... yeah, it'd work. He sure does play the same as Phoenix in T&T, and if we played as Phoenix in the Investigations games he'd play the same as Edgeworth too, I bet. It's not the most exciting thing in the world to me, but I'd give it... what, 75%?

Averaging those together, that comes out to the total I gave.

Predictions: Bill: 10%
Nominations: Junpei x21, Earthworm Jim x4
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Bill Rizer

Chance 15% - I forget who nommed this, because good job. Feels like we could have an underdog here. Contra is a very long running and a somewhat popular series from Konami. Why do I like his chances a bit? First, I feel like Contra is probably the most likely series to get something from Konami. Castlevania got so much I'm pretty sure we're not getting any more. Bomberman is like, super ultra mega dead now given he's an AT and a DLC Costume. Metal Gear Solid could get something else but I'm not feeling it. There's some other contenders, such as Silent Hill or maybe something weird like DDR. Those feel unlikely for a variety of reasons. So yeah, if Konami gets another rep it feels like it's Bill, or at least someone from Contra. I don't know enough about the series to be able to say who the front runner would be.

Want 50 - 50/50 on Bill. Never played Contra before and don't know much about the series. I do know that it's fairly long running, has a solid history with Nintendo, and is fairly well known. There are significantly worse picks out there.

Predictions:
Bioshock Protagonist - 5.32

Noms:
Riptor x10
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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New Jersey
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Villager49
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If we do get a Contra rep, their Classic Mode better be a super hard one where you have 30 stocks.

Chance: 1%
Contra is one of the most iconic games of the NES so I can see a Contra rep happening if they're going for a retro pick. In terms of Konami characters however, there is a lot of competition. First would be another Castlevania rep, most notably Alucard who Sakurai previously considered. The second would be Bomberman, and although he's pretty much dead for Ultimate, he's still a big hurdle for future games. As for whether we even do get another Konami rep for Ultimate, we got a Bomberman costume along with Steve which makes me think we won't be getting anymore additional Konami characters. Granted that could maybe be an exception since they probably just repurposed the Bomberman AT model, but in general I'm just not feeling Konami this time around.

Want: 60%
Contra is a true classic of the NES era. Granted I never really got around to beating it, but it is definitely worthy of being in Smash. Bill (& Lance) would be a fun fighter especially with how they'd utilize the powerup system. Score would be higher, however Bomberman is my most wanted Konami rep as well as one of my most wanted characters ever. While I'd like to see Bill Rizer make it into Smash, I wouldn't want him getting in over Bomberman.

-----

Bioshock rep chance prediction: 5.00%

Nominations:
Conker x10
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,233
Bill Rizer

Chance: 10% -
Bill Rizer's got a lot of competition in the form of Alucard, Frogger, Bomberman, and others when it comes to future Smash games. While the lack of competition this DLC cycle may seem promising (only Frogger is a threat really), Nintendo hasn't done much to promote Contra, and with Konami spreading a bunch of its' mii costumes throughout other waves (and these were NEW costumes too. rather than returning ones like with Capcom), I don't have much confidence in a Konami rep. Conversely, Contra is a very famous historical franchise. One of the last remaining NES icons not in Smash and even has the honor of being the first ever use of the Konami Code, which is also often called the Contra Code, a testament to its' legacy. So I can see it happening if they go for a Retro pick, but Bill's still got a hill to climb. But then again, most characters do.

However, I will amend my writeup a bit and raise the score from 3 to 10! After reading GoodGrief's write-up it appears that the franchise's newest entry, Rogue Corps, got a surprising amount of promotion from Nintendo! That's definitely a big boost, and shows that Nintendo cares about the Contra franchise! Plus the historical aspect is appealing to Sakurai! So if Nintendo went to Konami for another character and let Sakurai pick (likely what happened with Joker) Bill would definitely be front and center there, and it's a pick Nintendo would likely approve of, too.

Want: 50% - Definitely a worthy choice! He has the legacy and Nintendo history, and would bring a lot to the table! One of the original Run n' Gun characters, he would no doubt have a very unique arsenal of weaponry and a very unique playstyle to boot! Granted, he's not on my list of favorites either. With only two slots left there are many other franchises I'd personally choose instead. Though for Smash 6? Bring him in! So overall I'm neutral to his inclusion, leaning positive. While it wouldn't get me trembling in my seat with excitement, Contra as more than earned its' place among the roster!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x5
Captain Charlie x5

Predictions:
Bioshock Protagonist - 15.93% - 2K gets surprisingly little attention in Smash speculation, though with Bioshock's trilogy on Switch and them and Nintendo having a pretty god relationship, I'm definitely expecting some decent scores. More than likely gonna see Booker DeWitt or Emily taking center stage, as they're the protagonists of Infinite, the most well-known entry in the franchise.
 
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Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Bill


Chances: 10%

Honestly he's a bit of an underratted pick, if not a lot. His series, Contra, is a classic series that has good ties with Nintendo, and it's still active to this day, with the latest game being released in 2019 and with it releasing on Switch, Nintendo could have very well chosen to have him on the fighter pass, though I wouldn't call him likely either. He's not on the level of someone like Ryu Hayabusa (before the disconfirmation), so that doesn't do too well for him, and while Konami already has characters in the game, which could help him, especialy since he's pretty much the next Konami rep in line considering how this game is not the one where Bomberman will be part of the roster. He does have some issues, though they're not too big, but with Ryu Hayabusa seemingly not hapening, I'm iffy on him hapening, though he has a chance to happen for sure, even if I do not expect him that much, mainly because I don't think we'll get another Konami character right now. Though once again, he's still a good possibility, and I'll even say decently likely to happen in the next game.

Want: Abstain

Contra seem like a pretty fine game, but I haven't played it, so I won't judge it or Bill. He does seem pretty badass, and from what I know of the game, it looks alright and that he could have a pretty fun moveset balanced around the run and gun mechanics of Contra, and while that could be annoying to deal with, I don't think it would be too annoying. Though he is a Konami character, and as we all know, Konami is not really a good company, may it be towards it's properties, employees, creative minds, or others, so them getting something more in Smash would sting a bit even if not too much, and while it wouldn't bother me a lot, Bill wouldn't nulify that stingy feeling as much as say, Raiden. But yeah, he would probably be pretty cool, even if i don't know how much exactly.

Nominations

Virtual idols like Miku x10

Predictions

Bioshock: 6.8%
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,983
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
Bill Nye the shooting guy

Chance: 5% Truth be told, I've got more confidence in this compared to most other characters, Contra has a respectable NES legacy similar to the likes of Ryu and compared to other franchises, Contra's been surprisingly active, not only did Konami give us a collection but they also gave us a game I swear people blocked out of their goddamn memories. "The new Battletoads was the worst looking game this E3" and "Nintendo's presentation was the absolute best" being blatant contradictions to Rogue Corps' existence. The only real issue is that would Nintendo really value Contra that much? I'm not too sure. At least the game hasn't been under political fire in decades

Want: 15% I have no experience with Contra so all I have to go off of it are word of mouth and a few snippets of gameplay along the most embarassing announcement trailer I've ever seen. That being said, what little I've seen shows potential as a glass cannon zoner which sounds like an interesting dynamic to fight against as zoners aren't usually that frail. I'm also very curious as to how the infamous Spreader would be handled.

Junpei x10
 

Pillow

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,268
Location
Los Angeles
Bill Ryzer

Chance - 10%
Contra is a classic, long-standing series from the NES era, which definitely isn't nothing, but I personally don't think that's enough to be considered for Smash. The series isn't dead, but it's also seen better days for sure....weirdly enough, it shares this fate with fellow Konami series already in Smash. I know he has his fans, but basically I consider Bill a rather lukewarm pick compared to other Smash candidates.

Want - 30%
He's okay...I don't have much else to offer here. It's not a 0 because I always respect the classics, but he's a character that I have no personal attachment to and who doesn't vibe with my personal tastes.


Noms:
xMax Miku
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,436
Up, Up, Down, Down, Left, Right, Left, Right, B, A, Start

Chance: 25%

I will spoiler tag this section since it is an essay so prepare for a wall.

Back in 1987, Konami released an arcade game called Contra. Contra is a run-and-gun game where you control Bill Rizer (Player 2 takes control of Lance Bean) as you take down an evil organization that is bent on destroying humanity while discovering the true identity of the aliens controlling them. The game was a big hit and it got ported to numerous computers and game consoles, including the NES and Famicom. It sold very well, leading to Super Contra (Also known as Super C) in the arcades and on NES as well. At this point, Contra became a franchise. It got Operation C on the Gameboy, Contra 3: The Alien Wars on the SNES, and it continued to get games on the 5th generation of consoles, as well as the 6th gen, 7th gen, and modern consoles. After Hard Corps: Uprising in 2011, the series took a break until 2019 when Konami released Rogue Corps, as well as the Contra Anniversary Collection which contains a bunch of the retro titles in the series.

The original Contra was influential for its time. While Ikari Warriors entered the scene first and introduced the concept of shoot em ups with men shooting through waves of enemies and getting power ups, Contra introduced that concept to side scrolling which made it stand out at the time. It also allowed players to aim and shoot in 8 directions, a rarity for the time. You also can’t forget about the Konami code when talking about Contra. While Gradius was the first game to include it, Contra was the game that made it popular. Another memorable aspect of Contra is its shifts in perspectives. These perspectives would change up the gameplay by turning the game into a vertical-scrolling shooter or making it so that you are shooting at targets in the background. These perspective changes added variety and kept the games fresh.

At the time of its release, Contra gained a lot of praise. AllGame editor Skylar Miller praised Contra, stating that the game “became the standard by which future shooters would be judged.” Later in 2004, the NES version of Contra was inducted into GameSpot’s list of the greatest games of all time. Nintendo Power ranked it the seventh best NES game, calling it one of the best multiplayer NES games. Electronic Gaming Monthly listed the NES version as the 45th best console video game of all time, saying it “set the standard for all two-player simultaneous action games to follow.” Several of the sequels, most notably Super C and Contra 3, have gotten similar praise.

Nintendo themselves has acknowledged the series’ popularity, with them including Super C and Contra 3 on the NES and SNES Classic Consoles respectively. There are no Contra games on the Switch online service, but that can be explained by the Contra Anniversary Collection which is available on Switch.

Overall, Contra has gained a legacy. It is an iconic series with strong Nintendo connections and has remained one of Konami’s signature franchises. It also has remained relevant throughout the years despite the admittedly shaky transition to 3D gaming. While Rogue Corps flopped, there is still hope for future installments and the Anniversary Collection has reminded people why this series is so special and why it maintains its recognizability.

Now that you are familiar with Contra as a whole, what new and exciting mechanics and features can Contra bring to the table? Well first, as Contra is a run and gun shooter, Bill Rizer would primarily be using his gun. A big feature of Contra is being able to shoot in 8 directions which can act as Bill’s tilts, and they can implement diagonal aiming which would give his moveset that sense of freedom that the Contra games give you.

But what would separate Bill from other projectile heavy characters like Mega Man are power ups. In Contra, capsules will occasionally appear in the sky and Bill can shoot them down to obtain a power up. Power ups will also drop from certain enemies like turrets. These power ups are what makes Contra Contra. They consist of:
  • Spread Gun - The classic gun that fires three to five bullets that spread out.
  • Machine Gun - Fully automatic gun that fires bullets faster and allows the player to hold down the button to shoot rather than tap.
  • Laser - Long beam with high damage
  • Flamethrower - Can fire either a steady stream of flame or fireballs.
  • Homing Gun - Fires a rocket that homes in on opponents.
  • Crush Gun - Fires blue missiles with short range that explodes with huge damage. The explosion stays around for a couple seconds, dealing additional damage to anyone in it.
  • Wave Gun - Shoots a wide energy wave that penetrates multiple enemies.
  • Plasma Thrower - Basically a shotgun
  • Electro Gun - Shoots electricity
  • Blade Gun - Shoots literal active chainsaws.
  • Gas Gun - Shoots gas that poisons enemies.
  • And much, MUCH more. Plus there are some melee weapons like knives and katanas.

Bill Rizer’s main mechanic would be this: As he is dealing damage, capsules will pop out of the opponents and Bill Rizer can pick them up to gain a random power up. When playing on his stage, capsules will appear in the air and Bill can shoot them down to grab them.

Speaking of stages, there are some good choices they can pick.

They can go with the iconic jungle level from the first game:



Or the first game’s final level:

Contra (NES)/Stage 8 — StrategyWiki, the video game walkthrough and  strategy guide wiki



Or the first level of Contra 3:


The Japan Game Cave-日本のゲームの洞窟: Contra-Series Retrospective -1987-1998



Any of these would represent Contra well and they can have stage cameos and enemies attacking the Smash characters. If they wanted to go the extra mile, they could have the stage be a scrolling stage to encompass the entire level and make it feel even more like Contra.

Next, the music. Here is a list of some of the notable songs from the series:

I could go on, but you get the gist. Basically, Contra has awesome music.

Overall, Bill Rizer would bring some pretty amazing content with him. A balls to the wall moveset, a cool stage, and some bangin’ music. And on top of all that, Bill would represent a brand new franchise and a genre that is arguably not represented yet. We do have Samus but I’d argue she is more of a representative of Metroidvanias rather than a straight up shooter rep.

Now, let’s discuss how Contra falls in the grand scheme of things. As a Konami series, it is definitely one of the frontrunners for the company. Bomberman’s chances are looking grim with him just getting a Mii costume. Silent Hill is another classic series, though it is very grim and thus it would be difficult to implement a fighter. Bill Rizer’s main threats are Frogger and Alucard, particularly the latter as he was considered for the base game and is a very popular and requested character. But on the other hand, Castlevania already has a lot of content that spreads throughout the series and while there is still plenty of new content they could add, it just raises doubts on them wanting to give Castlevania more content. So, if I had to bet money on there being another Konami character, it would be Contra.

But the big question is, would Konami get another character? I do think so and this is a good segway into my counter argument section. These are the other factors that I mentioned earlier that hold back Bill from being seen as likely. Here we go.

“Contra isn’t likely because Konami are a bunch of ****** and would be hard to work with.”

First, Nintendo clearly doesn’t care about controversy if last year is anything to go by. Between the Melee drama, the joy-con drift fiasco, and other situations, Nintendo has been surrounded by drama and yet they are trucking along just fine. Second, Konami negotiates like any other company. Just because they are up in their *** does not mean they will bite other companies that get close to them. Besides, we got so much Castlevania content. 2 fighters, a stage, 34 music tracks, an assist trophy, a boss, a bunch of spirits, and an entire section in World of Light. Do you really think that if Konami was that stingy or rude that they would allow this much content?

“But Konami already has so much content in the game!”

So what? I don’t see how the content for Metal Gear, Castlevania and other stuff like the Bomberman assist trophy and costume affects Contra content (Well, aside from the Bomberman costume but I will acknowledge that soon enough). Sure, Nintendo would want to go to new companies to strengthen corporate relations, but I will point out that the two third party companies from this pass already have content in the game which says a lot. Plus, we haven’t gotten any Konami characters since the base roster so it’s not like we had a Konami character in this pass, or the last pass for that matter. Meanwhile, Contra has zero representation. In addition, I have to point out that Capcom has as much content, if not more content than Konami and yet I haven’t seen anyone use this rebuttal against Capcom characters.

“But why would Nintendo go to Konami knowing that they have little interest in gaming? Konami is mostly interested in pachinko machines these days and their game releases are minimal. So why would Nintendo want to get a character from them when there are so many other fledgling companies out there?”

Admittedly, this is a good point and I can see why people think this. But that does not take away from the monetary value of Contra and Konami’s other series. Contra still is recognizable and while it is past its peak, plenty of people still know about Contra and enjoy it. Plus, I have to point out again that there are two Contra releases on the Switch, the Anniversary Collection and Rogue Corps. So Nintendo still does have an incentive to include Bill Rizer in Smash. Additionally, Smash is known for bringing attention to franchises and if Bill Rizer gets included, that would inevitably bring more attention to Contra and that may convince Konami to make more games. And if they make more games, that is more money for Nintendo as long as they have continued support from Konami.

And that’s another thing. Nintendo and Konami have maintained a consistent relationship throughout the years. They are not super close like Koei Tecmo and Nintendo are, but Konami has published plenty of games throughout the decades for Nintendo systems. Going back to the Castlevania content, that makes it seem like that they might be easy to work with too. So while Konami doesn’t have much on the horizon, I don’t see that as a big issue as the bridge is still there for Nintendo to cross over and Contra is still a relevant name.

“But Bomberman got a Mii costume during this pass. If Bill Rizer was coming, why would they put a Mii costume in with an unrelated company?”

Admittedly there is not much evidence I can bring up here other than 1. There is nothing that says that Konami costumes have to come alongside a playable character and 2. We don’t know how far in advance Mii costumes are negotiated for. So there is some room to say that maybe Bomberman was negotiated for after a Konami character could have been negotiated for. Also keep in mind that Bombeman already had a model thanks to his assist trophy so his costume would have been a quick and easy job to do, regardless of when and if a Konami character arrives in the pass. So while the costume does hurt Bill Rizer’s chances, and by extension other Konami characters, there is not enough evidence to say that this downright kills his chances. And I will stand by this point.

Looking at the evidence, I do think there is a good chance that we will get a Konami character. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee or anything, but I do think people are sleeping on them. Even putting aside Contra, they do have some solid choices. But going back to Contra now, I can confidently say that after everything that has been mentioned, Contra doesn’t get enough credit.

To conclude, Contra definitely has the merits to be included in the greatest crossover game of all time. It is a beloved series that is still going today and Konami’s door is still open for Nintendo. The earlier games in particular are major titles for their time and are all-time classics. Contra would bring great content with its inclusion and its inclusion in general would be a big deal.

Thanks for reading. I hope this encouraged you all to give Bill Rizer another look. Or at the least it gave you more interest in the series, which would be great. It would be a dream come true to see Contra in this game and I know that Sakurai would make it work in the best way possible.


Sources/Resources

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contra_(video_game)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contra_(series)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoot_'em_up

https://contra.fandom.com/wiki/Weapons

https://contra.fandom.com/wiki/Contra_Wiki

That whole section was taken from my Bill Rizer essay. I don't have too much to add other than there is some incentive for Nintendo to pick Contra and with Hayabusa deconfirmed, that only helps out Bill Rizer.

Want: 100%

I god dam love Contra. It's a blast and a real test of skill with a focus on positioning and making use of powerups which would translate so well into Smash, just the thought of it excites me. I suck at the games but I still enjoy playing through the same levels over and over again because of how satisfying and smooth the gameplay is. For NES and SNES games, the Contra series controls nicely and overall the games are stellar. Great sprite work, detailed graphics, kickass powerups, and a banger of a soundtrack. The games are a love letter to 80s action films as well and makes you feel powerful.

If the next reveal trailer starts out with that familiar title screen jingle, I would fall out of my chair in hype. Words cannot describe how ecstatic I would be to see how they would translate Contra into Smash. Bill Rizer has the potential to be an extremely fun character and I think a lot of people would love his inclusion even if they aren't familiar with him because his moveset would feel so intuitive and free, just like his games of origin. One of my most wanted characters, please bring in the mad dog! Please!

Bill Rizer

Chance 15% - I forget who nommed this, because good job.
Thank you.

Also, DrifloonEmpire DrifloonEmpire just a small correction. Gradius is actually the first game to use the Konami code, not Contra. Although you are still correct in saying that many people do call it the Contra code, which is a testament to its legacy as you mentioned. It's not like this'll change your score, but I just like to tell small tidbits of history like that.

Prediction: Bioshock protagonist - 13%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x25 (Using up all extra noms)

[/Spoiler][/Spoiler]
 
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Wonder Smash

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
2,237
Bill Rizer

Want - 80%

While not really my most wanted. he is a character I fully support for Smash. Contra is a great, iconic series with a long history on Nintendo consoles. Bill and Lance would be great for Smash.

Chances - 50%

I'm kind of split on this.

On the one hand, Konami already has three characters and we don't know if that's the limit. But even if it isn't, there's no guarantee that Konami would be the one to get another character.

But on the other hand, Konami seems to be one of the easiest companies to work with. Three characters in the base roster, three assist trophies, a few Mii costumes, and a lot of spirits? All of these things do work in the favor of another character from their company and Bill, the main character from the only major Konami series from the NES era that's not represented in Smash yet, is like the next best thing from them.
 
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Mr. Stevenson

Smash Ace
Joined
Jun 5, 2018
Messages
735
The last One of the last NES all-stars.

Chances - 25% Konami has shown to be very lenient in terms of letting their characters join Smash. I don’t see why they wouldn’t want another one, but does Nintendo want it too? That’s another story. Although I don’t really think Bill has that much of a strong competition going on now. Simon and Snake are already in and Bomberman is deconfirmed, so maybe Frogger but I still think Bill’s the most logical choice for the next Konami icon. Even other NES icons such as Sir Arthur and (maybe) Ryu Hayabusa are out of the way, which definitely helps the Mad Dog’s chances when assuming that we are to get an NES icon this pass.
And they do still care about the series given that they made a 30th anniversary special release for Contra with all of its most popular titles and a recent new game called Rogue Corps (tho not a very good one).
Unfortunately there’s never been that much of a push for those two in terms of fan support and demand, nor has there ever been any leaks with them included.

Want - 95%
One of my most wanted characters, without a shadow of a doubt and my second most wanted NES icon (Ryu Hayabusa being first).
Not only do the games hold a special place in my heart but also regardless of his chances, I feel like Bill (perhaps along with Lance) makes way too much sense for Smash, given that he's an NES icon and the series has a very strong history with Nintendo going from the NES to the Switch.
If the tables turn and the Contra boys eventually do get in, then I’m hoping they include their NES outfits since they’re my all time favorites.

1621610041719.png
 
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