Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

The most expensive fighting game to animate
Chance: 2%
For an Indie 2D fighting game, Skullgirls has done quite well for itself. It's a million+ seller, released on a ton of platforms and is still relevant today despite it nearing being a decade old. It even is in the middle of a new season of DLC currently so support is still going strong. More significant is that it actually found succes in Japan. It has arcade cabinets over there and reportedly met the Japanese publisher's lifetime sales expectations in the first two weeks of its release. Despite all this I still don't see a character from the game happening. As always, we have just two characters to go and there have been bigger indie succes stories that still ended up getting a Mii Costume at most and if Nintendo really wanted another 2D fighter added to the crossover, they'd probably look sooner towards Arc System Works. The Switch port also releasing a tad too late as well as the announcement for new Skullgirls DLC characters happening very recently doesn't really help.

Still, it would be fun to speculate who they'd go for if it did happen tho, assuming we would get an Arms situation here. Annie and Umbrella can be counted out since both are way too new. Ms Fortune, Painwheel, Double and Eliza all have some body horror things going on so they also are no options. Valentine would be rejected for the same reasons Mai was. Robo Fortune is a total joke character. Beowulf is very unique within his own game but in Smash might honestly have a motive too similar to Incinaroar. Finally, Parasoul feels a bit too complex ingame and would probably not be "beginner friendly" enough. (or maybe im just bad idk) That leaves us with Filia, Cerebella, Peacock, Squiggly and Big Band. Not sure who's likeliest but my biases are leaning with Big Band so Tuba Tuba it is.

Want: 50%
Largely depends on who here. Beowulf is my main but Big Band is the one I'd imagine working the best. Either would be very exciting imo. The rest just don't click with me as much sadly, bringing this score down. No offense to the actual women cast of Skullgirls, but those two are just hype incarnate to me, and the two I play 95% of the time. I'd be okay with other options but I'd likely prefer some other western third-party character at that point. I agree with Sari tho. We have to get that NMO Arena theme in any case.

Peppino: 0.85%
Plague Knight x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Skullgirls Rep

Chance: 1% - Skullgirls does have a Switch port which alone is a plus (that Nintendo relationship is extremely important), along with a dedicated fanbase. Though, when it comes to franchise size, it's still technically indie-tier, which is why I don't believe it'd be on Nintendo's radar. Nintendo usually goes for bigger developers to strengthen relations with them. So an indie needs to be HUGE to catch Nintendo's attention. Sans and Cuphead were able to do that with their Mii Costumes (even if the latter had Microsoft's backing), and both Quote and Reimu are major historical indie characters that basically overshadow everyone else. And the former, along with other indies that HAVE gotten Smash content like Undertale, Cuphead, and Shovel Knight have had strong ties to Nintendo. Skullgirls just made the jump recently and I think it's just too much of a barrier for me to consider them likely. Yes, we've had plenty of unexpected underdog picks, but that doesn't mean EVERY pick is going to be an unexpected underdog pick. So if Skullgirls by some chance makes it, then congratulations to it! But it's not something that I'd be putting my money on.

As for who they'd choose to rep the franchise, it'd more than likely be Filia. She's the face of the franchise and pretty much the mascot, and I don't see a Spring Man/Min Min situation happening here, since we got the main characters of other third party franchises chosen over the more popular side characters (looking at you Alucard).

Want: 20% - Never really been into fighting games much (I find them frustrating) so Skullgirls isn't high on my priority list. Now, I will give it some positives. I do really appreciate the art direction and how much effort they put into animations to make the characters feel lifelike, and how they went beyond the point of sex appeal and actually made it a game with plenty of substance. I also do love how inspired a lot of the alts are, especially the most recent batch with the Ganondorf and Wario references! However, we only have two slots left, and there are other indies, and just many other franchises in general that I'd rather see take those slots.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
Peppino - 0% - Not expecting confidence here. He's a niche (but VERY cool) indie character whose game isn't even finished yet, so that's definitely not getting on Nintendo's radar.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Remember, today's the last day you can affect the top seven. After the day ends the schedule will be set.

On a related note, I'll do calcs tomorrow, so there will probably be extra noms coming your way before the day's over. Stay tuned if you want to use them for an upset!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Billy & Jimmy Lee pre-Concept: Skullgirls rep

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x305
Bill Rizer x280
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x266
Mike Haggar x265
Ryza (Atelier) x255
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x253
Concept: From Software rep x251

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
Estelle Bright x235
Tetra x230
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x226

200 - 151

Senator Armstrong x200
Sackboy x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Riptor x170
Corvo Attano x170
Todd Snap x165
Stage: Bowser's Castle x162
Meat Boy x160

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x150
Rean Schwarzer x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Junpei (Zero Escape) x132
[Rerate] Louie x130
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Echo (Bowser) x123
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Conker x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Gunvolt x90
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Garchomp x77
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x70
[Rerate] Tails x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Demi-Fiend x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Ratchet & Clank x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Springtrap x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Reimu x20
Plague Knight x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Gene x10
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x10
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x9
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x5
Firebrand x1

A BioShock protagonist shoots through Mike Haggar into third place.

Meat Boy gets ground into 150 noms.

Yuri Lowell cuts through 100 noms.

Conker gets more than 50 noms.

Cutie Gwen Yesterday you gave 10 noms but your writeup only earned you 5. How would you like to assign them? (You'd given Junpei 9 and Estelle 1)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Remember, today's the last day you can affect the top seven. After the day ends the schedule will be set.

On a related note, I'll do calcs tomorrow, so there will probably be extra noms coming your way before the day's over. Stay tuned if you want to use them for an upset!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Billy & Jimmy Lee pre-Concept: Skullgirls rep

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x305
Bill Rizer x280
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x266
Mike Haggar x265
Ryza (Atelier) x255
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x253
Concept: From Software rep x251

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
Estelle Bright x235
Tetra x230
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x226

200 - 151

Senator Armstrong x200
Sackboy x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Riptor x170
Corvo Attano x170
Todd Snap x165
Stage: Bowser's Castle x162
Meat Boy x160

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x150
Rean Schwarzer x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
[Rerate] Louie x130
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Junpei (Zero Escape) x127
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Echo (Bowser) x123
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Conker x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Gunvolt x90
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Garchomp x77
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x70
[Rerate] Tails x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Demi-Fiend x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Ratchet & Clank x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Springtrap x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Reimu x20
Plague Knight x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Octoling x10
[Rerate] Gene x10
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x10
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x9
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x5
Firebrand x1

A BioShock protagonist shoots through Mike Haggar into third place.

Meat Boy gets ground into 150 noms.

Yuri Lowell cuts through 100 noms.

Conker gets more than 50 noms.

Cutie Gwen Yesterday you gave 10 noms but your writeup only earned you 5. How would you like to assign them? (You'd given Junpei 9 and Estelle 1)

When in doubt, give them to who has less, so my boy Jumpy

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[Pillow]

Skullgirls
Chance - 1 %
Skullgirls is niche, despite what anyone else might tell you. The game's pretty old now, and it hasn't quite fallen away into obscurity, getting its first big update in a long time pretty recently...but it's still only one title in a decade. I really can't imagine we get a fighting game character that isn't Chun-Li or someone from Tekken, and Skullgirls is even further down on that list than other series like Soul Calibur, DoA, Darkstalkers and so on. If Sakurai is gonna go for a niche character, it will be from a more relevant series.

Want - 40%
I absolutely adore the art and character design of Skull Girls, but I have no personal attachment to characters, and I'm one of those that believes that legacy and impact matters for 3rd party characters. I also think that some of the charm of the hand drawn art would be lost in translation when moving to a 3d model, as good as Smash 3d models have been.

Noms:
FromSoft xMax

 

[chocolatejr9]

Concept: Skullgirls rep

Chance: 0%
Another case of a character being too niche to be considered. I'll give it this, it's STILL getting support to this day, even getting new characters. Plus, the fact Mike Z is no longer involved can help aliviate people's concerns about... all that. However, I can't think of any reason Nintendo would pick Skullgirls of all things to add to Smash. It's a niche fighting game, even for niche fighting game standards. Also, it may be best to wait and see if the game's recent resurgance is more than just a one-off thing...

Abstain on want. I've never played Skullgirls, but I've always been curious about it.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[Neosonic97]

I have no real experience with Skullgirls, so I'm going to have to double abstain here.

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Skullgirls

Chance: 1%
Fighting games, aside from the biggest franchises, are mostly a niche genre with a hardcore community. Skullgirls is seen as niche even within that community so I don't see how there's a way for it. It's also indie and at this point with precisely zero indie fighters in Smash it's fair to say it's big boys only. The devs have no other games that are anywhere close to competition, but that also means their relationship with Nintendo is close to nonexistent. Its status as the indie fighting game makes it a very strong candidate once we start going down the list of important indies, but that's for the future.

Want: 20%
I've played Skullgirls and had a lot of fun. However it was just as a party game, so I'm not familiar with its story and characters beyond recognizing them. Therefore, I can't say I have any attachment to the series. And I can't say it deserves a spot, not when pitted against franchises both in Smash and waiting to be. Again, ask me when we're 4 indies in and I'll change my tune.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Peppino prediction: 0.05%

 

[Jomosensual]

Skullgirls rep

Chance 0 - I see no possibility of this happening. First it's an indie game, where there's about 20 more characters who are more likely. Second its a zfighting game, where there's about 100 more characters who I could see Nintendo asking for first. It's also pretty niche, so RIP there too. I'm not even sure that Skullgirls is more likely to get repped than something like Brawlhalla or Rivals of Aether if Nintendo went for a smaller smash type series first. When you don't even stand out from your competition there there's just not a chance.

Want 0 - Yeah, for sure do not want this to happen. There are so many great fighting game series and characters not in the game yet. Characters like Chun Li, Heihachi, Scorpion, and so, so many others are more deserving. There are so many more indies that deserve it more as well and make more sense. Skullgirls might just be a better fit for a different crossover fighting game.

Predictions:
Peppino - 1%( Should be a 0% since his game isn't even out yet but someone won't know that and give him like a 10% anyways)

Noms:
Riptor x10

 

[DanganZilla5]

girls with skulls

Abstain. I don't have the drive to do a writeup this time.

Prediction - Peppino - 0.05%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x5

 

[Deleted member]

Chance: 0
Want: 0
Nominations: 0

 

[DanganZilla5]

Chance: 0
Want: 0
Nominations: 0

In order for your scores to be counted, you need at least two sentences of reasoning for each score.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Sorry wrong thread. Delete please.

 

[Lyncario]

Skulllgirls

Chances: 1%

A very low chance for a few reason, but one of them isn't that Skullgirl is a niche title, it's pretty popular for both an indie and a fighting game, with notably videos of the character Big Band (who is basicaly a living orchestra fighitng with music) reaching a very good ammount of views, especialy the Jojo references. Now, if a Skullgirl rep where to happen, if we're being real for 10 seconds, it would be Fillia, and she's not really the kind of character that the CERO would really accept without censorship. But that's doable, so this is not too much of a problem, even if still a little bit. The thing is that Skullgirls has been dormant for a while, and while it's getting new content currently and is also on Switch, the thing is that it was still in a limbo while the dlc was chosen. And if Sans and Cuphead were made as Miis, I don't see Fillia, or anyone from Skullgirls making it in.

Want: 90%

The creator of Skullgirls is a very bad person, and that's about the extant of what I can say towards Skullgirls negatively, because Skullgirls is an awesome fighting game with an awesome cast that would be extremly fun in Smash. I said that Fillia would be the most likely, and she has a very cool moveset that would be very fun to use in Smash too. And it's not just her, there's also Big Band, who would be not only extremly unique, but if he was accurate to Skullgirls, he could also use Jojo references to fight. And so much of the cast is just great and fun, really a character from Skullgirls would be awesome and extremly fun, even if I sadly don't see it hapening. It would also bring the very good ost too, which is another plus for how cool it could Skullgirls in Smash could be.

Nominations

Virtual idols likeMiku x10

Predictions

Pepino: 0.3%

 

[fogbadge]

Virtual idols likeMiku x10

hang on, is that allowed?

 

[Sari]

hang on, is that allowed?

We talked this over before and yes it's allowed.

 

[Lyncario]

hang on, is that allowed?

I've been doing this for a while now even if I originaly nominated this as a debate of if it is allowed in Smash by Sakurai and Nintendo or not.

 

[fogbadge]

We talked this over before and yes it's allowed.

we have? sorry my memory is inconsistent

 

[Jomosensual]

we have? sorry my memory is inconsistent

Yep, remember some discussion on it a while ago. While I personally don't think it counts I don't have an issue with discussing it

 

[zferolie]

Skulllgirls

Chances: 1%

A very low chance for a few reason, but one of them isn't that Skullgirl is a niche title, it's pretty popular for both an indie and a fighting game, with notably videos of the character Big Band (who is basicaly a living orchestra fighitng with music) reaching a very good ammount of views, especialy the Jojo references. Now, if a Skullgirl rep where to happen, if we're being real for 10 seconds, it would be Fillia, and she's not really the kind of character that the CERO would really accept without censorship. But that's doable, so this is not too much of a problem, even if still a little bit. The thing is that Skullgirls has been dormant for a while, and while it's getting new content currently and is also on Switch, the thing is that it was still in a limbo while the dlc was chosen. And if Sans and Cuphead were made as Miis, I don't see Fillia, or anyone from Skullgirls making it in.

Want: 90%

The creator of Skullgirls is a very bad person, and that's about the extant of what I can say towards Skullgirls negatively, because Skullgirls is an awesome fighting game with an awesome cast that would be extremly fun in Smash. I said that Fillia would be the most likely, and she has a very cool moveset that would be very fun to use in Smash too. And it's not just her, there's also Big Band, who would be not only extremly unique, but if he was accurate to Skullgirls, he could also use Jojo references to fight. And so much of the cast is just great and fun, really a character from Skullgirls would be awesome and extremly fun, even if I sadly don't see it hapening. It would also bring the very good ost too, which is another plus for how cool it could Skullgirls in Smash could be.

Nominations

Virtual idols likeMiku x10

Predictions

Pepino: 0.3%

You mean mike Z? He wasnt the sole creator, the main creator was Alex Ahad, who is a pretty cool guy. Mike z though was mostly just the makier of the engine of the game. Alex made all the story and characters

 

[chocolatejr9]

You mean mike Z? He wasnt the sole creator, the main creator was Alex Ahad, who is a pretty cool guy. Mike z though was mostly just the makier of the engine of the game. Alex made all the story and characters

So basically, Alex made the stuff that people liked?

 

[zferolie]

So basically, Alex made the stuff that people liked?

Pretty much ya. Granted the combat was made by Mike and that has kept people playing, but the overall asthetic, world, and characters was Alex.

 

[Louie G.]

SKULLGIRLS

CHANCE - 0.1%
Not happening. Skullgirls may be on Switch now, but that's not nearly enough to propel it to a status where it's really on the table for Smash. It's a pretty successful indie title and it's been getting new support which is awesome! Skullgirls is a good game in its own right, it's got a great memorable cast and some real solid gameplay... but let's be real, just because a game is good doesn't mean it's Smash-viable. I'm also unsure how popular Skullgirls is in Japan, a factor that is obviously quite important for whether or not they would be on Nintendo's radar, but I haven't heard anything that suggests the series has too much of a presence over there. Nor does it have the fan demand or sheer internet-breaking power to make up for that potential shortcoming.

I disagree with the aforementioned CERO concerns however because I don't think Filia is necessarily the obvious choice. I think Peacock is not only just as recognizable and iconic of the game, but even more reflective of Skullgirl's identity and at least personally I find her to be a better fit for Smash. And if it makes any difference, she's arguably got the closest connections to the titular Skullgirl. But of course we're splitting hairs on a game that is very unlikely to recieve content in the first place. If this had asked about non-playable content like a costume or spirits... the score would still be low, but I'd be much more willing to give the benefit of the doubt. A full-fledged character is really pushing it.

WANT - 45%
I mean, it'd be cool I guess. Skullgirls has great music and great characters, but I would admittedly be a bit weirded out at why Skullgirls took precedent over so many other legendary and iconic fighting game series that have yet to make an appearance in Smash. At the end of the day I wouldn't be complaining because they would surely be a fun character, but I would definitely question the decision. Well actually it does kinda depend on who they choose, but I imagine Filia or Peacock would be the leading candidates and I'd be fine with either of them.

TAILS x10

Peppino - 0.35%

 

[Yiptap]

Skullgirls

Chance: 1.5%
Putting a Skullgirls rep in the 0.Something percent is kind of harsh, to be honest. However, that doesn't mean a Skullgirls rep is likely. Skullgirls has two main problems: being an indie game and being a fighting game. For the indie game part, several indies have a better chance than Skullgirls (Shantae, Hollow Knight, Cave Story, Undertale) due to their better relationships with Nintendo and being more influential in the indie scene. For fighting game part, there are WAY more bigger fighting game characters out there cough Chun-Li and Scorpion cough. So with those combined, I'd say Skullgirls is very unlikely. Hm, what's that? Lab Zero, the company that originally created Skullgirls, harassed its employees? Let me rephrase what I said earlier: Skullgirls is extremely unlikely. (I know that Autumn Games took over Skullgirls, but I can still see some problems with the Lab Zero controversy)

Want: 80%
This is kind of embarrassing, but the only non Nintendo fighting game I've played was Skullgirls Mobile. However, I still enjoyed Skullgirls a lot and would love to see any kind of Skullgirls representation in Smash. My only concern is the Skullgirls artstyle being translated to 3d looks horrendous. I also think that other indie characters should get in first.

Peppino: 0.30%

Noms: Meat Boy x 10

 

[Perkilator]

I'd like this day to end now, if possible.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd like this day to end now, if possible.

Calcs time babyyyy

Concept: Disgaea rep
12.00% Chance - 48.00% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 10.43%

Beatrice
1.40% Chance - 51.31% Want
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 1.70%

Rallen
0.80% Chance - 14.29% Want
The winners of predictions were NintenRob and DaUsername with 0.50% and Inue Houji with 1.10%

Trevor Philips
3.67% Chance - 39.50% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.86%

Billy & Jimmy Lee
8.53% Chance - 46.27% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 with a precise 8.00%

Beatrice, Rallen and Trevor are our newest inductees to the Less Likely Than Goku club.

Spoiler: List of extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 112
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 93
Inue Houji 64
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 55
TCT~Phantom 50
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

Remember: if you want your nominations to impact the top seven, edit your post for the Skullgirls day with them. Otherwise they'll only count for the next day.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining.

Noms: Corvo Attano x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Calcs time babyyyy

Concept: Disgaea rep
12.00% Chance - 48.00% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 10.43%

Beatrice
1.40% Chance - 51.31% Want
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 1.70%

Rallen
0.80% Chance - 14.29% Want
The winners of predictions were NintenRob and DaUsername with 0.50% and Inue Houji with 1.10%

Trevor Philips
3.67% Chance - 39.50% Want
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 4.86%

Billy & Jimmy Lee
8.53% Chance - 46.27% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 with a precise 8.00%

Beatrice, Rallen and Trevor are our newest inductees to the Less Likely Than Goku club.

Spoiler: List of extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 30
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 112
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 93
Inue Houji 64
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 55
TCT~Phantom 50
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 10
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

Remember: if you want your nominations to impact the top seven, edit your post for the Skullgirls day with them. Otherwise they'll only count for the next day.

There's an HQ version of Lang's special shout?

 

[GoodGrief741]

There's an HQ version of Lang's special shout?

Apparently. I took it from the wiki. It's probably from the phone version of AAI

 

[Inue Houji]

Skullgirls rep
Chance: 1%
It's an indie game, and not one of the biggest ones either. Fighting games are already niche, and the only ones who've made it into Smash currently are 25+ years old franchises.
The real issue however, I would say is the controversy regarding Mike Z, and the fact that the company pretty much dissolved last year. I know they made a new company, but I'm not sure how that would affect negotiations.

Want: 40%
While I haven't played it for more than a few minutes, I've heard a lot of good things about it. I am planning to get back into it, as I'm on a fighting game spree at the moment.
As for the pick, I'm not sure, there are a lot of interesting designs, but I'm not sure how all of their movesets work. My first instinct is someone like Cerebella or Big Band though.
I'm not that interested in Filia however, which I've heard touted as the most likely.
In any case, I know the music is great, from what I've heard.

Predictions
Peppino: 0.1%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x10

 

[Commander_Alph]

Abstain


Noms Agumon xAll

 

[AirMac1]

Abstain.

Prediction: Peppino 0% (His game isn’t even finished yet!)

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep x10

 

[MeteoRain]

Chance: 2%

I first want to point out by refuting this "bigger fighting games". Especially when said fighting game and it's mascot was let's be real here, more recognized than Terry or Fatal Fury and King of Fighters PRIOR to that SNK leak. Terry in nutshell is more of a pimp slap to the face of Mortal Kombat and Tekken than Fillia could be.

The problem with Skullgirls instead hinges on the Indie angle and the lesser but still noteworthy extent in CERO.

I can see about half a dozen indies making the cut. From community picks like Shantae and Shovel Knight, to the elders like Reimu or Quote, to dark horses like Gunvolt or the Drifter. I would have money on Undertale if not for that Mii.

There's no upper hand I'm seeing with Skullgirls. To make matters worse CERO would have a field day with "Pantyshots: The Game". You'd have several cases of Mai.

Want: 90%

This would be outrageous, but the kind of outrageous I would love and Fillia would be cool to see in action.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Peppino from Pizza Tower.

Predict Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Pizza Tower mood:

Spoiler: Pizza Tower Music

 

[Perkilator]

The one true love of Wario Wario Wario

Abstain. Pizza Tower isn't even finished yet.

Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Echo: 50%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[BowserKing]

Peppino

Chance: 5%. While the chance of him being playable is very low, the chance of him being a spirit and/or Mii Costume would be low but plausible. With that said, we have seen unlikely characters get in, but for Indie reps, I see Shantae and Shovel Knight getting in first.

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as however, and I can see him encounter characters including Banjo and Kazooie, Sonic, Steve, Wario and Toon Link, amoung multiple other cartoony characters. Overall, he would make a good Smash Bros rep, and we do need more cartoony characters in Smash.

Prediction: Edgeworth as a Phoenix Echo (5%)

Noms: 5 for Boss: Rayquaza

 

[Sari]

Peppino

Chance: 0%
An indie character whose game hasn't even been released yet. Not even a release for Nintendo systems is even known in the works. What else is there to say here? Well I have to stretch my rating out for the extra noms, so I'll add that even if the game were released then Nintendo would definitely go for pretty much any other indie. I don't see why they would risk adding an experimental indie character when basically every other option is much safer.

Want: 5%
Pizza Tower does look really fun especially since we haven't had a Wario Land game in forever. But really though we should wait for this game to be actually released before giving this an actual score. Like imagine if something were to happen to the game before it released which could drastically affect people's interest in it. It could get cancelled or become the next Balan Wonderworld for all we know. I'll give a pity score of 5% since it does look like it'll turn out great, but really though I'm generally not a fan of supporting characters until their games are out. Especially since I also have a ton of other indies I'd want to see repped first.

-----

Edgeworth as Phoenix's alt/echo chance prediction: 5.60%

Nominations:
Conker x10

 

[Louie G.]

PEPPINO

CHANCE - 0%
A character from an unfinished game being added to Smash? Well it wouldn't be the first time, but there isn't a whole lot of incentive for Peppino in particular seeing how he's from a third party indie title with currently no ties to Nintendo and well... it's found itself a fanbase, but it's not taking the world by storm or anything yet either. Especially not in Japan, I'd imagine. I'd hesitate to believe Sakurai or the Nintendo execs making this decision even know who Peppino is. There's really no silver lining to this one, as harsh as it sounds.

WANT - 5%
Which is a shame because yeah, Peppino looks like a fun character and Pizza Tower looks promising. But I can't really throw my support behind a character whose game hasn't properly released yet. There are also plenty of other indie game characters who I would probably be a little frustrated getting snubbed in favor of Peppino, given the circumstances. Like, Sans and Cuphead being Mii Costume material but Peppino being playable character material would have me just completely floored, lmao. I'm optimistic about enjoying the game but of course not everything I enjoy necessarily has a place in Smash.

Edgeworth - 3.85%

TAILS x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

PASTA PIZZA PUT IN A BOOOX

Chance: 0% The game isn't out yet. There was a demo 2 years ago at SAGE but no full release date in sight as far as I can see, with the official social media accounts not mentioning one and their pinned tweet being about that demo, if we ignore the possibility of the game being a scam of sorts, which funny enough was my introduction to the game, there's one thing that's interesting to note. Smash seems to count Minecraft as a 2011 game, meaning it only counts the official release date, which again, Pizza Tower doesn't even have an estimate for.

Want: abstain, this is a very weird and unique scenario so I'm honestly not sure how to rate it.

Junpei x9
Estelle x1