Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BowserKing]

Prediction

Tekken and Kazuya Discussion
Kazuya moveset
Stage discussion
A playthrough of Kazuya
Lloyd being a Mii Costume

That is all I got for now

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[DanganZilla5]

Kazuya presentation predictions

• A brief history lesson on Tekken that includes a joke about "healthy family dynamics".
• An explanation for why Kazuya was chosen over Heihachi and 50/50 chance that he'll reveal that it was a Harada move to release the Heihachi costume early.
• Kazuya will be the most complex character in the game and he will pretty much turn Smash into a "traditional" fighting game. He'll probably be too complex for me to use.
• This is more of a hope but I'm wishing for stage cameos other than Heihachi.
• The Mii costumes will be:
  • Jin
  • Kuma
  • Another Tekken character
  • Lloyd Irving
  • Nightmare
  • Agumon
• There will be at least 20 songs from across the Tekken franchise.
• The Min Min and Steve Amiibos will be shown.
• Sakurai reiterates that there is only one more character left.

Noms: Pyramid Head x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Kazuya predictions

Sakurai explains what Tekken is and talks about why the reveal trailer was what it was
Sakurai explains why Kazuya over Heihachi and others from Tekken
Kazuya has some very complex stuff to his moveset that takes a bit to explain
Music and Stage explanation. We get a good deal of music from Tekken
We see Min Min and Steve Amiibos for sure. 50/50 on Sephiroth's shows up or not.
Mii Costumes show up, and we get a surprise deluxe after the last few sat out from one. Lloyd comes back here and we get one other surprise deconfirmation.
Something kinda random thrown in here that just kinda fills time, like the spirit how to or the figure talk stuff.
Sakurai talks about the size of the roster and reviews fighter pass 2. He says he's very excited to show us the final character in the game and that this project has been truly a once in a lifetime occurrence

Ori x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Pretty much everything has already been said. Tekken history, Kazuya explaination, why Heihachi wasn't added (I bet it's because of the voice actor's death putting the character in semi-limbo), that kind of stuff. No predictions on Mii Costumes other than Lloyd, though we are due for another Deluxe Mii, I feel.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[GoodGrief741]

Calcs! Sorry they're so late, had one hell of a week. But I'm free now, just in time for the presentation!

Concept: League of Legends rep
6.91% Chance - 37.62% Want
Last time we rated this it got 20.17% chance and 48.08% want. Weirdly, getting tons of games announced for the Switch hurt both its scores! Chance can be explained by the post-E3 effect (a term I am coining now), but you'd expect want to go up.
No predictions because E3 happened.

Rean Schwarzer
28.09% Chance - 53.89% Want
The winner of predictions was Perkilator by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a 30.00%

Estelle Bright
19.60% Chance - 74.00% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 with a precise 21.00%
Estelle is now the fourth most wanted third party character.

Adol Christin
26.00% Chance - 71.82% Want
First time we rated him he got 28.53% chance and 83.18% want. Last time his scores dropped to 22.65% and 64.00%. Not much of a change for him really.
The winner of predictions was Perkilator again with a 30.00%
Adol is now the fifth most wanted third party character.

Overall it looks like y'all really like Falcom. Even Rean, whose want really marks him as the unfavorite, still had a score many characters would be jealous (he's also seen as the most likely, perhaps a reflection of the expectation of disappointment that surrounds FP11). In contrast, as the most wanted and least likely of the trio, it seems appropriate to mark Estelle as the pipe dream for Falcom - even non-fans prefer her.

Decidueye
8.43% Chance - 61.42% Want
Last time we rated it it got 2.22% chance and 35.04% want. That was right after Min Min. Fast forward one year, a new starring role, and a Tekken character, and look at the effect on Decidueye's scores!
The winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with the lowest prediction, a 9.53%

Garchomp
8.46% Chance - 44.10% Want
The winner of predictions was Perkilator with 10.00%

Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon
22.54% Chance - 32.50% Want
I. 10.49% - 16.16%
II. 12.73% - 17.89%
III. 31.31% - 25.44%
IV. 35.68% - 28.87%
If there's anything to be said about this concept is that it's bizarrely grown on you, even if it's still called the worst-case scenario by many.
The winner of predictions was TCT~Phantom with 24.44%

Professor Layton
18.33% Chance - 68.75% Want
I. 32.96% - 67.19%
II. 32.56% - 55.36%
III. 33.68% - 68.44%
IV. 21.06% - 66.33%
If there's anything to be said about Layton, is that the man is constant, just look at those scores, he's like a man out of time.
The winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with a near-exact 18.30%. That nets me 10 extra noms! That's the Professor for ya, always reliable.

Monokuma
12.72% Chance - 71.43% Want
I. 15.62% - 50.77%
II. 10.31% - 46.92%
III. 6.38% - 59.00%
The winner of predictions was BowserKing by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with a precise 15.00%

A curious fact: the amount of people that rated each character is nearly identical, but surprisingly, the people themselves weren't. Fans of each character came and rated but instead of trashing the competition, they did the gentlemanly (and, er, gentlebearly?) thing to do and abstained. The tiebreakers were the thread usuals, who appear to slightly favor Monokuma in want and Layton in chance.

Another fun fact: no character or concept joins the Less Likely Than Goku club tonight! I think this is the first time since the club's inception. Figures, since this is the fixed schedule.

Spoiler: If you're on this list you have extra noms

3BitSaurus 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 5
Dan Quixote 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 212
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 10
Inue Houji 74
Jomosensual 100
Mr. MR 75
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 20
SKX31 55
TCT~Phantom 105
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 5
zferolie 5

I just remember I've yet to do noms but it's past 4AM so they'll have to wait for tomorrow.

 

[fogbadge]

Pretty much everything has already been said. Tekken history, Kazuya explaination, why Heihachi wasn't added (I bet it's because of the voice actor's death putting the character in semi-limbo)

would that be a problem? smash uses a lot of archive audio

 

[Cutie Gwen]

would that be a problem? smash uses a lot of archive audio

This already happened to Heihachi since the most recent VA passed away but a lot of people assume this is the norm in Japan because of Kojima retiring the Colonol for those very reasons despite the countless examples of other characters not being retired after the death of a VA.


Sidenote, can anyone remind me what the full fixed schedule is from here on out? I forgot and didn't screencap it and I'd like to have it so I can do writeups a tad early

 

[chocolatejr9]

would that be a problem? smash uses a lot of archive audio

And if they need new audio? Sometimes, archives can only take you so far.

 

[fogbadge]

And if they need new audio? Sometimes, archives can only take you so far.

the entire game series if youre captain falcon

 

[Sari]

Sidenote, can anyone remind me what the full fixed schedule is from here on out? I forgot and didn't screencap it and I'd like to have it so I can do writeups a tad early

Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

My opionion First of all, I’m surprised Kazuma got in, even before Heihachi. A bit disappointed that we only have one newcomer confirmed instead of two. The Metroid Game sounds fun. Same with the Warioware Game, Mario and Rabbids, Mario Golf and a few others. We also see a big comeback of...

smashboards.com

Day 1: Concept: League Of Legends Rep
Day 2: Rean Schwarzer (Trails)/Estelle Bright (Trails)/Adol (Ys)
Day 3: Decidueye/Garchomp/Gen 8 (Pokemon Day)
Day 4: Professor Layton/Monokuma (Danganronpa)
Day 5: Reimu Hakuri (Touhou)/Shantae <---Where we are after Kazuya satisfaction scores
Day 6: Quote(Cave Story) /The Knight (Hollow Knight)
Day 7: Master Chief/Dovakhin/ Crash
Day 8: Phoenix Wright (Ace Attorney)/Amaterasu (Okami)
Day 9: Arle Nadja (Puyo)/Concept: Phantasy Star Newcomer
Day 10: Demi-Fiend (SMT)/SMT 5 Protagonist
Day 11: Saber(Fate)/Euden(Dragalia Lost)/Katalina(Grand Blue)
Day 12: Ayumi Tachibani(Famicom Detective)/Officer Howard(Astral Chain)/Ring Fit Trainee
Day 13: Concept Zelda Newcomer/King Boo/Gooigi
Day 14: Rayman/Sol Badguy (Guilty Gear) /Concept: Disagea Rep
Day 15: Sakura Shingumi (Sakura Wars) /Axel Stone (streets of Rage)
Day 16: Andy (Advance Wars)/Ashley(WarioWare)
Day 17: Waluigi/Isaac (Golden Sun)

 

[DaUsername]

Predictions:
-Lloyd gets Costume'd
-Kazuya will be too complicated for me to play
-Some other stuff I guess

Noms: DJ Octavio x5 (How have we never rated this character?)

 

[Neosonic97]

Ooooof. I can imagine people aren't too pleased about the characters who got Mii'd here (Lloyd notwithstanding as he was obviously doomed).

 

[Sari]

And to think we were just a day away from rating Shantae again.

 

[Ridrool64]

Post-presentation still knocked out Tekken but nobody from that series got directly whacked.

Instead, it was... everybody else. Wow. The Miis were really out for blood. I guess they're making up for lost waves?

Two characters off the schedule as quickly as when they were put there AND Dante, widely considered to be Capcom's frontrunner, all wiped. Lloyd was probably the only one we didn't have our eye on, and only then because of Kazuya's reveal to begin with.

While it's hard to say for if Shantae's affecting other indies, I do think the nonchalant Mii drops for characters from those companies don't exactly reflect well on Capcom or Bethesda.

 

[zferolie]

While these costumew were big deconfirms for this game, what sakurai said was interesting. He outright said all these characters were highly requested. It means he knowns the fan demand for them, and hopefully that could me good things for the future of smash.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So ummm, sorry Shantae. One day away from a rerate lol.

Tomorrow will be Quote, Reimu, and The Knight. Everyone will get double noms that day due to no predictions. So 60 noms are up for grabs.

Now in terms of my thoughts...

Kazuya: 80% Satisfaction

I ain't a big Tekken fan. I respect its legacy, like the characters, and the music is a bop. But I do not have that strong of an attachment to Tekken as a whole. That being said, my god, that was an all out pack.

39 songs. That much music alone was going to put Tekken at a reasonable score. I love me some music for Smash. Tekken has a great soundtrack and I am happy it got its dues.

Kazuya himself looks cool. He looks like how a Tekken character would in Smash, while still having enough to show how he is kind of a brutal villain. Getting more villains is always a treat in my book. I probably won't play him, I suck at the imputs. I also think he will be frustrating to fight against, Auto Turn Around is one of the most obnoxious mechanics to fight against. But a great pick that looks super cool and exudes a cool aura.

The stage looks nice...but it looks kinda boring. I do not think Mishima Dojo looks particularly fun. Might slot it into my omega or battlefield lineup on occasion, but honestly this might be one of the weaker DLC stages alongside Garreg Mach and Spring Stadium. It still is way better than those two, but honestly I can say that imo, this is the worst DLC stage.

So a great character, great music, and a mediocre stage? Im happy, although I took some points off due to how he is CP10, and that means odds are the last character might not be someone I am hype for. It could easily be, but who knows. \


Now, for the Deconfirmations

Heard y'all might need this pic.twitter.com/IR0733fEeR

— Official ATLUS West (@Atlus_West) June 28, 2021

I think this is the deconfirmation that stung the most for people. I personally thought Dante would be a cool choice, but at the end of the day I was a lot less confident in him, or any Capcom character, than most people. As a result, while I am not as personally effected by this, I feel bad for his fans because Dante would be a cool addition.

Next up, Dovakhin got the axe, sad to see. I personally was not confident in Bethesda after Vault Boy. But even then, this saddened me. Honestly I could see Doomslayer being in the final mii costume wave at this rate.

Shantae... I was never a big fan of. That being said, I am glad for her fans she at least got a rather nice costume with music to boot.

Lloyd was the deconfirmation that hurt the most for me, and the one I expected. The second Kazuya showed up, I knew Lloyd's days of cheating death were numbered. That being said, I still wish we got him, ToS is great. I would have loved to have a dual wielder in smash to boot. I know SharkLord is probably as disappointed if not moreso than me. To them and all other Lloyd fans, yall have my sympathy

At least one thing that I think is important, Sakurai seems relatively aware of fan demand. All four of those were reasonably popular smash requests, which he personally noted. I think this shows as I said Nintendo has their finger on the pulse of fan demand or what people would like...for the most part.

Also, bonus being probably dead is sad. I mean, I will say I doubt Sakurai would outright deconfirm a bonus right then and there, but I do not think it is as likely unless some real funky stuff happens.

So, CP11 won't happen for a while. IMO, that leaves us with three scenarios.

• CP11 in a Fall Direct
• CP 11 in a final smash presentation
• CP 11 at TGA

Depending on the character, different things might be helped. I personally think that the latter two are more likely than the former, but both reflect different scenarios imo. If we get something at TGA, I would lean towards a bigger pick to be honest. For the final presentation, it could be anyone but I would lean smaller.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

While these costumew were big deconfirms for this game, what sakurai said was interesting. He outright said all these characters were highly requested. It means he knowns the fan demand for them, and hopefully that could me good things for the future of smash.

I'm just curious in particular where Dragonborn's primary source of demand was from. I don't know how big of a request he was in Japan, but the West was busy obsessing over Doom Slayer.

Either way, all four of them get a big boost for next game and I'm happy!


Kazuya Satisfaction Ratings


Satisfaction Rating: 80% - Kazuya wasn't my top choice for Namco, but at the same time he's an incredibly worthy fighter who's more than earned his spot, and I have to say he was very inspired! Watching this presentation heavily reminded me of the Terry Presentation, and it was nice to learn about Tekken's histoy, the Mishima bloodline, and a little more about the franchise at large! I'm surprised Sakurai didn't use Min Min mechanics to emulate Tekken's limb system, but overall he recreated Tekken's mechanics in a very unique way, and I like the resourcefulness and the amount of moves he was able to cram into his moveset! Honestly he looks super fun to play, and while I don't play much Smash anymore myself, I can imagine Tekken fans who are into Smash are gonna have a blast! Plus Sakurai himself was clearly having a good time while presenting it! And with an excellent pack of 39 songs, we're in for a treat!

The Mii Wave: Now to cover everyone's favorite segment, Mii Massacre!

Dante - The big one everyone's been talking about , though it's understandable, given how late his hype train came along. Still, this helps Phoenix Wright a ton, so I'm very pleased myself! For the first time ever, Phoenix Wright is Capcom's frontrunner!

Dragonborn - It's really sad to see Dragonborn get the axe! He was one of my most wanted characters, and while my confidence in him dwindled after E3, I was still hoping he could be the last fighter and end off Smash with a great choice. Still, the Mii Fighter looks excellent, he had a fun little trailer, and Sakurai even noted him as a character with a lot of demand to become playable! This puts him in a great spot for next game, and it honestly made me super happy to see him get some acknowledgement!

Lloyd Irving - Basically inevitable at this point, while I feel bad for his fans (even if my most wanted is his direct competition), he could only cheat death for so long. Still, his deconfirmation and the lack of a Prince Mii puts him in a better spot for FP11, but given Sakurai's comments it puts him in a worse spot next game.Could we get a Namco character as FP11? Sure! But sadly I'm not banking on it.

Shantae - I'm glad that she gets some acknowledgement, and a nice song as well! Wayforward's definitely getting closer to Nintendo, so that puts her in an excellent spot for next game. Still, in the mean time, axing another major piece of indie competition (along with the projectile head glitch for being for Kazuya instead of a Reimu hint) puts Quote in an excellent spot!


Overall, I have to say I was very happy about this presentation! I'm not a Tekken fan myself, and I was saddened by Dragonborn's deconfirmation, but at the same time there were a lot of goodies and I'm excited to see people try Kazuya for themselves!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie xAll

Predictions:
Quote - 5.92% - Expecting A LOT of negative scores now that Reimu's being rated on the same day again...
Reimu - 34.45% - Expect as many overrates are there are bullets on the screen.
Hollow Knight - 6.39% - A tough one to call, The Knight has tons of merits but Silksong's continued absence has definitely made people less confident.

 

[Inue Houji]

Yep, stuck with Lloyd until the end, and got burned. Oh well, at least it was kinda expected from Kazuya's announcement.

 

[Nemuresu]

Kazuya Satisfaction: 90%
For starters, I'm rather surprised that the main factor that got Heihachi out was the lack of a devil gene, guess the projectile and recovery made the whole difference in terms of viability. As far as inputs go, I've got mixed feelings: on one hand, the armor should make me comfortable with trying some of these techniques; on the other hand, Kazuya is slow, so not sure if I'll be able to handle that. That said, I love fighting game characters in Smash, so I'm definitely gonna lab with him. Also m------------g Electric Wind God Fist, I'm glad it was included.

Now, for the stage and music, I'm also surprised. I get most people were already predicting an amount similar to Terry's, but I wasn't sure if it was realistic to expect, given how most characters don't even reach 20 songs. I guess this may just be a theme running forward for future titles: expect the fighting game guys to come with big collections of songs. Not much to say on the stage itself, it's the bare minimum, nothing inherently bad, but nothing special either.

As for the Miis, that was probably the biggest massacre to this very point. Like, in past titles, batches would include random characters wouldn't expect (Vault Boy and Rabbids come to mind), but here, it was a consolation price fest, and I'm like, goodness! Not even other Tekken characters, just characters people wanted to see.

Finally, I got nothing to say about the final character taking time. They barely avoided breaking the deadline last time, I have no reason to not expect the same with this last character. I don't expect anything until November/December.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

I guess this may just be a theme running forward for future titles: expect the fighting game guys to come with big collections of songs

It was probably luck more than anything. SNK's extremely generous, and Kazuya's owned by the developers making the game, so things ended up working out well for them.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I am so upset right now. I'm ****ing shakong with rage. As a massive Smash fan I expect basic respect but what has been shown tofay makes me so sick to my stomach that I have to give this a 0% satisfaction rating... You made me write my Shantae writeup for nothing!


In actuality, where do I ****ing begin, Kazuya looks fun as **** but very weird, so I have to wait until more people play as him to get a grasp on how best to play Kazuya as I know Tekken movesets are huge but don't need all moves used. As for the stage? Oh, it looks really nice, has a nice ominous atmosphere and has a similar style to the objective best Smash stage we've ever gotten and the music? I'm not a Tekken fan so I'm listening to the tracks as we speak but I'm loving what I'm hearing, finally a stage to rival KoF Stadium as the best stage in the game. As for the Mii costumes, I'm very surprised we didn't get any Tekken costumes at all which makes no sense to me, but what we did get? Hoo boy. Dante looks surprisingly good with his DMC1 focus and Sakurai outright saying that he was a massive request like the other 3 was genuinely great as it means our voices were legit heard, maybe we'll have better luck next time? I fail to see how this gets anything other than 100% from me

 

[BowserKing]

Kazuya satisfaction: 85%

First of all, his moves are quite deadly and powerful, which is not surprising, but still cool. His stage is quite fun and I’m glad we get more destructible stages. Also the music sounds fun as well. I’m not surprised that Lloyd is a Mii Costume again, but I’m surprised that Shantae is a Mii Costume. Same with Dragonborn and Dante. Looks like the final fighter might be a tight one.

Predictions (since Shantae is discomfirmed): Quote (5%) and Knight (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser and 5 for Lugia

 

[Sari]

Kazua Satisfaction score

80%

Kazuya looks very faithful to his game. Granted I'm probably not going to pick him up since I'm trash enough at the game already, but it's crazy how in-depth Sakurai went. I am surprised that Tekken's limb system wasn't implemented though, especially after we got Min Min who uses it. I know it may be too early to judge since we haven't tried him out yet, but he already looks pretty high tier.

I love that stage, especially the battlefield form. Easily my favorite stage in all of FP2 so far.

39 songs! I had a feeling Tekken would get more than the usual amount but I wasn't expecting that much.

-----

As for the Mii Costumes:

• Lloyd came as a shock to absolutely no one. It's a real shame his fans had to wait this long for it though.
• Dragonborn came out of nowhere. I have yet to truly get into the Elder Scrolls series but honestly this might be one of my favorite costumes.
• I wasn't too surprised at Dante getting costume'd since I always thought he was overrated in regards to Ultimate DLC chances (also that last part of my chance score unfortunately aged very well). But damn I could feel the pain from his fans as soon as I saw the red outfit.
• Shantae was definitely the most shocking of them all. She was one of my most wanted characters and I wasn't expecting her in Ultimate (I was going to give her a 15% at best if we rated her tomorrow). She even came with a song so I'm pretty happy with this outcome.

It's very much worth nothing that all 4 characters were big requests according to Sakurai himself. This is a massive boost for them for the next game to the point where I can see at least one of these characters becoming playable.

Also I've been skeptical of Shantae in the past, but after today I think she may have an actual chance for the next game. Getting deluxe'd, acknowledged by Sakurai himself, and the ever-increasing relationship between Nintendo and WayForward shows that she isn't just a fad anymore.

-----

Now how does today affect other characters chances for Ultimate? Well obviously the 4 characters from today are dead as well as their series since they were the only real candidates. Yes I know Yuri from Tales is still a possibility, but Sakurai said he favored Lloyd and I don't see us getting two Namco characters back to back. I think all that really changes is that some other Capcom characters may get a slight boost since Dante is out of the running. That is, if you still think Capcom is in the running after all of the Capcom costumes we've gotten.

Speaking of costumes, Sakurai didn't bring up why Heihachi got costume'd with Min Min instead of with Kazuya. This isn't even a issue of there wasn't any room, since costume showcases usually have 5 costumes while this one only had 4. To me, this seals the deal that costumes don't matter too much when it comes to other characters from their series/company. So yeah I think Capcom, Ubisoft, and maybe even Bethesda/Microsoft may still be in the running now.

----

Really though, there's so many factors in play here that CP11 may be the most unexpected character ever. From here on out, we're basically shooting darts in the dark (well, moreso than usual at least).

 

[spicynun]

Kazuya Satisfaction: 75%
A very complex and cool character, not who I would've picked from Tekken but still seems like a fun character. Also 39 Tekken songs all of which are sure to be great. Also that victory screen is the best. My biggest problem with Kazuya is I feel like any other Namco property would've been more interesting. I adore fighting games but there is always something kinda boring to me about a fighting game character getting into another fighting game and just retaining most of their moves as opposed to a moveset that is made with Smash in mind.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Kazuya satisfaction

85%

This was overall a great presentation and the Mii costume wave threw me for a big loop. I don't think I will play as Kazuya a lot since he is easily the most complex character in the game but he looks a lot of fun. I really enjoy Tekken 7 and it was great to learn about some of the fun facts like where the victory screen animations came from. Also I appreciate the fact that it's the Tekken announcer instead which is a fantastic touch.

The stage looks neat. I wish there were more cameos but the gimmick with the breakable walls sounds fun. King of Fighters Stadium is one of my favorite stages because of the wall gimmick and how satisfying it is to break it so this stage will be a treat for me. And I'm hyped for the songs. 39 songs! I'll enjoy listening to them as Tekken has a kickass soundtrack. I'm glad that each game got a decent amount, it looks like a great selection.

And now for the costumes. Lloyd I was expecting so I'm not that upset. Dragonborn I was shocked but pleasantly surprised as I was no longer confident in him after E3. I really wanted him so it was great to see him being acknowledged in some way. Dante was another left field pick and so was Shantae. This was an absolute slaughter of a wave which makes me curious on what the next wave is going to look like. But overall all the costumes looked great and it's great to finally have another costume come with a song. This is going to be the first time where I buy the entire wave. Oh yeah and the spirit list has a good selection too.

Overall, solid presentation. I'm hyped for tomorrow.

Noms: Pyramid Head x10

 

[WeirdChillFever]

Kazuya Satisfaction: 75%
As an outsider to Tekken and non-Smash fighting games in general, the announcement to me mostly meant nothing outside of “hey yo its tekken” and this hasn’t changed a lot after the presentation. I still have little intention to play as him considering the amount of precision he requires, but I’m sure he’ll be a fun addition to those who wanted him. He’s also just a great choice and really stands his ground in this game what with the thirty unique moves, fighting game inputs and genetics giving him that bit of arcane magic. He’s perfectly executed but again, I do not have the personal connection or the playstyle to use him in any capacity.

I was personally also pretty unaffected by the Mii Costumes. I guess I was right-ish about Shantae’s odd spot in base game but that didn’t pan out to be an omen for CP11.

Random thoughts:
-Ray-Man is a noteworthy exclusion now when it comes to Mii Costumes both when it comes to popularity and his partner-in-spirit Shantae getting the nod.
-I still hope we get a Shovel Knight Mii or the playable full deal

Noms
Off The Hook x5

 

[Perkilator]

Kazuya Satisfaction: 90%

I do wish there were a few more songs and Spirits, but otherwise I'm pretty happy. Kazuya himself looks pretty fun.

My condolences for all the supporters of the characters who got Mii'd today, though. I know what it's like, cause Arthur got Mii'd during the Aegis's presentation, and just when I was starting to support the little guy.

At least Crash, Sora, BWD and Eggman are still good though

Noms:
[Rerate] Dr. Eggman x10
[Rerate] Sora x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Overall I'd say this was the most enjoyable and entertaining Sakurai Presents for me.

• I enjoyed Sakurai's rumination on game design and how it might actually be harder to adapt characters from fighting games due to needing to tweak existing moves to fit with a different speed and play style.
• The request that came down from heaven... Freaking hilarious
• Mechanically Kazuya is very faithful to Tekken, his reach and grabs and Rage and how he moves, it all looks and sounds just like the source material.
• As predicted he has eight gavillion moves. Most of them are normals with inputs. Unless they implement a command list for him that sends him to the absolute bottom of characters I'd like to play. A complete waste.
• He was picked over Heihachi because... Heihachi doesn't have the Devil Gene. What?! That's gotta be the dumbest ****ing reason not to pick Heihachi ever. The Devil moves look like the least compelling attacks in Kazuya's arsenal. You can't seriously expect me to accept that you needed Devil Kazuya to fill out the moveset when he has the most attacks of any character in Smash without them.
• Squad Strike instead of Classic. Good.
• Sakurai actually loses! Even Gods can bleed.
• Beam
• The Dojo looks really good. So does the music selection.
• Kazuya's winning screen, as many predicted, has the Tekken announcer. I don't like it. The Tekken announcer wishes he was 5% as good as the Smash announcer. That, and the lack of a victory fanfare, makes Tekken feel less integrated into Smash imo.
• And then the Mii Costumes: everybody's dead lmao. To be fair, Dragonborn and Dante were not going to happen past E3, and Lloyd has been a shambling corpse for a year now. Shantae, though, that was a shocker, I was gonna give her a good score on her day. I'll probably buy her costume because it comes with Burning Town. Das a good song

Satisfaction: 25%
This presentation needed to prove two things: that it made sense for Kazuya to be chosen as the Tekken rep, and that he would be implemented in an accessible way. It did neither. In terms of playstyle, stats, the moves chosen and their effects Kazuya is top notch but they tripped and fell down the stairs with all those inputs. I'm the kind of guy that likes to hit random and play with any character but with Kazuya I know I'll never be able to use the coolest aspects of his kit and that sucks.

Noms: Octoling xAll (including my extra noms)
Reimu prediction: the same I gave yesterday
Quote prediction: 7.25%
Hollow Knight prediction: 10.08%

 

[chocolatejr9]

• He was picked over Heihachi because... Heihachi doesn't have the Devil Gene. What?! That's gotta be the dumbest ****ing reason not to pick Heihachi ever. The Devil moves look like the least compelling attacks in Kazuya's arsenal. You can't seriously expect me to accept that you needed Devil Kazuya to fill out the moveset when he has the most attacks of any character in Smash without them.

I saw a Youtuber who noted that Tekken, unlike Street Fighter and Fatal Fury, doesn't have many characters that could be translated into Smash's platformer aspect (Ryu and Ken have Shoryuken, Terry has that one move I can't remember the name of). In that sense, then yeah, the Devil Gene makes ALL the difference by virtue of having wings.

Though keep in mind I know nothing about Tekken, so I could very well be wrong...

 

[GoodGrief741]

I saw a Youtuber who noted that Tekken, unlike Street Fighter and Fatal Fury, doesn't have many characters that could be translated into Smash's platformer aspect (Ryu and Ken have Shoryuken, Terry has that one move I can't remember the name of). In that sense, then yeah, the Devil Gene makes ALL the difference by virtue of having wings.

Though keep in mind I know nothing about Tekken, so I could very well be wrong...

I need to believe that having a viable Up-B isn't a dealbreaker in terms of which character gets added. I'd rather they just give the character ****ty recovery.

 

[Dan Quixote]

I need to believe that having a viable Up-B isn't a dealbreaker in terms of which character gets added. I'd rather they just give the character ****ty recovery.

I doubt it's a dealbreaker. If I had to make a guess, Sakurai's team had Heihachi and Kazuya as possibilities in front of them, felt about equal about either of their inclusion, and were just like "might as well go for the one with the Devil Gene" as a tiebreaker

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'll give him a 50% I guess. Can't remember the last time I felt this neutral about a character. I'll probably buy him to mess around w him for a session but he's definitely to complex for me to stick with. Stage looks fine, though nothing groundbreaking (it's the walls and ceiling that do, ooooh). Track list is about the amount I expected, though sadly the Tekken 7 Jungle theme is missing which is the only piece I would recognize. Mii Costume selection is intriguing. Narrows the field a little bit and makes the odds a bit more interesting for my some of my wants. ...Soooo we have Shantae now as the big new indie costume but there's still no sign of Knight, who we're rating tomorrow... Whoops, here I go misplacing my hype again.

Reimu: 9.34%
Quote: 8.65%
Knight: 12.02%
Bandana Dee x10

 

[Jomosensual]

Kazuya satisfaction

I guess I'd go like 75%? Not sure but I suppose

I'm not someone who really cared which Tekken character got in, but I feel like there's more going on here than just Kazuya has the devil gene. IDK, I get you don't want to confirm fan rules or whatever because doing things you don't need to that hurts hype is stupid, but I just don't really think he told us everything here.

The stage looks cool, I enjoy it and will probably use it a bit. The music seemed solid. I watched on and off at work with the sound changing quite a bit so I'm not totally sure. Spirit boards are whatever, especially for series I don't have personal history with

Gameplay wise I think I like him. I say I think because there's so much going on here. Likely gonna need to play him a bit before deciding how I feel on him. I'm very much not good at Terry, Ken, and Ryu who require the extra command inputs. I just can't remember to use them it mostly my problem and that's probably going to be an issue here too. I like the rest of what I saw quite a bit though so maybe I'll put in the extra effort to learn him

I suppose I need to comment on the deconfirmations too. Lloyd was no shock here at all. We all expected this. Dovahkiin was a shock. I had mentally crossed out pretty much all western 3rd parties so I'm not disappointed he's not in. Very cool add. Dante being dead feels like it basically just leaves Phoenix as the front runner for Capcom. Everyone else is either dead via costume, spirit event(do those still matter now?) or wouldn't make a ton of sense to be revealed next to Kazuya. I do not think we're getting a final reveal to be a 3rd party character, but the path has widened pretty big for him. Shantae I didn't want but I'm very happy the deluxe Miis made a return. Feels kinda weird we just stopped doing those with music after how well they were received. Overall probably the most interesting costume batch yet.

Noms:
Ori x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Welcome to today's Mii Costume in memoriam. Thank you all for being here.

Lloyd Irving
I. 22.94% - 32.15%
II. 50.92% - 53.37%
III. 47.83% - 54.00%
IV. 50.29% - 47.85%
V. 44.10% - 57.00%
VI. 29.17% - 56.82%

Dragonborn
I. 15.96% - 38.47%
II. 25.71% - 53.00%
III. 19.69% - 47.40%
IV. 17.53% - 52.15%

Dante
I. 0.08% - 54.79%
II. 49.38% - 64.23%
III. 41.62% - 58.36%
IV. 26.78% - 61.13%

Shantae
I. 7.17% - 48.96%
II. 10.25% - 44.94%
III. 10.89% - 54.28%
IV. 24.16% - 58.73%

A moment of silence for our fallen (Smash) brethren.

...

Alright now who wants noms!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Professor Layton/Monokuma pre-Kazuya satisfaction

Octoling x343
Mii Costume: 2B x310
Junpei (Zero Escape) x285
Meat Boy x285
[Rerate] Louie x285
Senator Armstrong x245
Corvo Attano x245

250 - 201

Pyramid Head x240
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x235
Tetra x230
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x220
Gunvolt x220

200 - 151

Stage: Bowser's Castle x192
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Tails x185
Kaede Akamatsu x180
Ratchet & Clank x180
Boss: Rayquaza x175

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Monika x135
Echo (Bowser) x133
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
D.Va x115
Fulgore x112
[Rerate] Gene x110

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Ori x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
E.M.M.I. x40
Soma Cruz x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

[Rerate] Eggman x23
Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Bonus Fighter x20
Concept: Spirit Events continue after the Fighter Pass x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
[Rerate] Sora x12
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Omori x10
Lugia x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
Concept: Challenger Pack with more than 15 spirits x5
Firebrand x1

Octoling takes Mii Costume: 2B's turf. First place goes to Octoling!

Soma Cruz dashes past 25 noms.

Oh yeah I forgot

Confirmed

Concept: The remaining SSB4 DLC Mii Costumes return (or get the deluxe treatment)
70.38% Chance - 47.93% Want
The writing was... definitely on the wall for this one.

 

[ProfPeanut]

A whole game about sending people off ledges? He'll fit right in!

Satisfaction: 75%
Unlike our previous fighter game guests with their pretzel motions, Kazuya's big distinguishing feature is a long list of unique moves that new players will pause the game mid-match to review over and over. Wow, it really does remind me of a Bamco fighter!

I'm only familiar with Tekken on a surface level, via seeing it in my arcades and giving it the occasional demo where I spammed random inputs. Kazuya's certainly not someone I was familiar with at all, as both his father and son were much more visible figures, so it's easy to see how he was never speculated despite being a Mishima. Yet when one reviews Tekken's history, they'll find Kazuya was the initial face of the first Tekken game, making him the "Marth" of the series that speculation would have typically favored. Wings to recover with and a good projectile are especially helpful pluses too, so maybe this choice isn't as difficult to understand as some might think. And after all, Smash loves to surprise.

While I can only imagine how Tekken fans find Kazuya's implementation, I do hope they're satisfied, because there's a lot to admire from an outside perspective. A deep moveset developed over Tekken's long history was imported nigh-wholesale into Smash, a commitment to accuracy that works in Smash's favor by giving it an interesting close-range fighter with a greater wealth of options than any before him. It's probable that most people who bought the Fighters Pass won't be able to use him to his full potential, myself included, but that's really fine! The variety of audiences covered by these fighter choices has always been one of Smash's greatest (yet perhaps least appreciated) strengths. Worst case scenario, make everyone play Kazuya and spam eye beams.

The stage is almost disappointingly simple, especially in comparison to King of Fighters stadium, and it's easy to feel like they missed an opportunity to cameo the rest of Tekken's cast. At the same time, it's an iconic location that'd be a shame to pass up, and the close-border mechanics make it another good casual stage for crowds who don't want to deal with recovering so much. Wish the background had a little more feature than just a mountain range, though.

39 songs, on the other hand is a real treasure trove of bangers to pick from! Perhaps something similar to SNK's situation happened, where Bamco was happy to approve most of the list of songs that Sakurai petitioned to get. I do recommend giving it a preview - have you heard this yodeling song before? Truly incredible.

Additional note on Mii Fighters:
Don't really have much to say about these since I wasn't invested in any of them getting in, but given how prominent all of the Mii costume choices were in speculation, I'm glad it shows that they've been keeping a close ear to us after all. Dragonborn and Dante both entered speculation relatively late, so similar to the K. Rool costume, this is essentially their way of saying "We hear you, even now, but this is the best we can do." Supporters will be disappointed, but it beats having nothing but radio silence.

 

[Flyboy]

Kazuya Mishima Presentation

Satisfaction ranking: 90%
I'll knock it down a little because of some personal wanted songs not making it in and no Lars or Alisa spirits and no Tekken Mii costumes. But otherwise? Wow, I'm so happy. I wanted a Tekken character in Smash and I wanted a fighter that used their fists to hit like a truck, and I got that with Kazuya. I love that he's based on this amalgamation of his most iconic forms and that he really feels like a sinister new villain to be added to the roster. I'm really excited to try out all his moves and combos.

What I appreciate the most out of how Sakurai translated Tekken into Smash is that he absolutely nailed one of the things I love about the game - the rhythm. For real, what makes Tekken so exciting and fun for me is that playing a character can feel like drumming or playing a piano, tapping buttons to focus on a rhythm that you really sink into, which is part of why Tekken's music is so important. Sakurai nailed the brutal hits and precise rhythm with Kazuya.

To me, the explanation that Kazuya's devil powers plus face-of-the-first-game-turned-villain status helped him have a deeper move pool made sense. I would still love to see Heihachi in a future game if we were to get a second Tekken rep, but I still find myself very satisfied with Kazuya's inclusion.

I love that we get 39 songs, but there will always be a few that missed the boat. But hey, can I really be that mad at losing IT'S NOT A TUNA when we get the sheep stage song??

Regarding the Miis, I was actually really happy with them even if I supported Dante and to a lesser extent Dragonborn. I know we only have one slot left and Nintendo will add who Nintendo wants. This shows that they really were listening to the fans and all the costumes look genuinely great this time around. I think I'm going to buy them all.

Anyway, yeah, I had a great time, and I'm just so happy Tekken finally got into Smash. I LOVE how brutal and devastating Kazuya's hits are.

Nominations: Corvo x5

 

[jamesster445]

Kazuya Satisfaction
100%

The character makes sense. He's as fully realized as best as he could be. So much music. The stage is great. He has a colors for Jin Kazama and Kazuma Kiryu. As a Tekken fan I am more than content.

None of the miis were characters I particularly wanted, so while I feel bad for their fans, it's not a loss on my end personally. I'm surprised by the lack of Namco miis though.

 

[Yiptap]

Kazuya Satisfaction
95%
Kazuya seems neat, but he's not for me. When I play Smash, I just spam attacks in a way that works for the situation. My poo-poo reaction time makes it impossible to get all those command inputs on time. The spirit selection seems really solid for me. Now for the elephant in the room: the mii costumes.

• Lloyd Irving wasn't all that surprising. He was the only Wii U mii costume remaining, it would make sense for him to get in. My condolences to Lloyd fans though, they were super chill.
• I wasn't expecting Dragonborn at all. I'm not really a big fan of Elder Scrolls getting a fighter (no reason, I guess I just don't want him to get in), but I think the mii costume is a perfect form of representation. Elder Scrolls deserves something, I'm just not sure if it should get in as a fighter.
• On one hand, I feel sorry about the loss of Dante fans. On the other hand, PHOENIX WRIGHT TIME, BABAY! All jokes aside, Dante's mii costume actually looks sick, I may buy it.
• Shantae shocked me. Nintendo has a good relationship with Wayforward, so theoretically, it makes sense. But it was just so off-putting for me. At least Shantae got something, it definitely is one of the more famous indie games.

I still stand by thinking Heihachi would be a better choice in terms of representation. I think Sakurai should have given a better reason for Kazuya's inclusion other than "But Kazuya has the devil's gene!!!!!!!!" But representation aside, Kazuya does seem like a more unique and funner character than Heihachi could be. Also, although Mishima Dojo looks nicer than KOF Stadium, it lacked originality, as KOF Stadium already did it in the previous DLC pass. But besides that, Kazuya looks really cool (but has virtually zero chance of becoming my main). Glad Tekken got something in terms of representation.

Also, off-topic, but it just pisses me off for some reason when instead of showing the mii character's game logo, they replace it with their name (Like "VAULT BOY," "TRAVIS," and "DANTE."

Noms: Meat Boy x All

 

[chocolatejr9]

I wasn't able to watch the presentation, so I can't give a rating. However, two things stuck out to me:

• Sakurai acknowledged that all the Mii Fighter Costumes this wave were for highly requested fighters. On the one hand, that's a point in their favor for next game. On the other hand, Sakurai said the same thing about Geno in Smash 4, and we all know how THAT turned out...
• Sakurai said that Fighter 11 is gonna take awhile to reveal. I don't know how popular of a theory it is, but I can't help but wonder if it's at least partially because the character is on the complex side. I know we JUST got a Tekken character, but... I can't help it, y'know? Trying to find justifications for Smash-related things?

Either way, spoiler for his day, but I said I would go all in on Euden if we still didn't have Dragalia Lost content in Smash by the time we were speculating Fighter 11, and I like to think I'm a man of my word. See y'all on the flipside!

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I wasn't able to watch the presentation, so I can't give a rating. However, two things stuck out to me:

• Sakurai acknowledged that all the Mii Fighter Costumes this wave were for highly requested fighters. On the one hand, that's a point in their favor for next game. On the other hand, Sakurai said the same thing about Geno in Smash 4, and we all know how THAT turned out...
• Sakurai said that Fighter 11 is gonna take awhile to reveal. I don't know how popular of a theory it is, but I can't help but wonder if it's at least partially because the character is on the complex side. I know we JUST got a Tekken character, but... I can't help it, y'know? Trying to find justifications for Smash-related things?

Either way, spoiler for his day, but I said I would go all in on Euden if we still didn't have Dragalia Lost content in Smash by the time we were speculating Fighter 11, and I like to think I'm a man of my word. See y'all on the flipside!

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

While the character might be on the complex side, it also seems that work on the character is continuing remotely iirc, so that is likely an even greater reason for the wait. Either way, I doubt the game is ending until October at the earliest.