Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sean Wheeler]

Chance of a Fire Emblem DLC character for Ultimate: 1%
Want of a Fire Emblem DLC character for Ultimate: 10%
I'm very sure the Fighter's Pass would be filled with with new third-party franchises that have never had any representation in Smash as spirits. Piranha Plant was just a bonus character that's not in the Fighter Pass. And the characters in the Fighter Pass come with their own stages, music and spirits. Fire Emblem has enough representation in the base game. And if new Fire Emblem character comes, please make it one who doesn't use a sword. All of the Fire Emblem characters have swords and half of them copy Marth.

 

[Kotor]

Between all four of them, I'd have to abstain on Claude and Dimitri. I've only played Edelgard's route. Fortunately, everyone is debating whether the TH rep should be Edelgard or Byleth so yay for me.

Edelgard want: 100%
Byleth want: 50%

Of the three house leaders, Edelgard has gained the benefit of being featured in all the advertisements. Statistics in Three Houses itself shows Black Eagles is the most popular house. Now, in Three Houses, all the students can use any weapon type. If you wanted, you could make an entire team of mages, or everyone punching **** with gauntlets. The students do have weapons skill they specialize in. Edelgard's speciality is in axes. She's also into armors, but that really only happens in the timeskip. Nothing is stopping you from making Edelgard a brigand or a pegasus knight during the academy phase of the game. Although people complaining about FE getting another rep is inevitable, they can't use the sword argument against her since it isn't her default weapon.

But I guess I have to dismiss her chances of getting in over Byleth because she's not the protagonist. Oh, and her swinging an axe around wouldn't be all that different from Ike.... if I actually believed in those petty arguments. Edelgard (and Dimitri and Claude) are just as important to Three Houses as Byleth is. You pick between the three houses and follow their story. Just because you don't control them directly at the monastery doesn't make them secondary to Byleth. The attitude for a TH rep shouldn't be "Byleth or bust."

The stage would most probably be Garreg Mach. And hopefully the music included is around Persona's number when Joker was added. I could see other games music being included but TH I expect to make up the majority. I just hope TH isn't just the three songs Nintendo is okay with people posting.

Spirits wouldn't be an issue. Three Houses is a brand new game with a new cast of characters. I do wonder if we'll get a new spirits update with Three Houses. I don't remember how soon spirits from Let's Go, or Super Mario Party were added relative to their release. But I'm sure people would love to see a TH spirits update so they can dismiss their chances entirely. After all, a character must be playable in Smash first before we can humor them being added to anything else.

I would love it if someone from Three Houses was actually part of the Fighter Pass. It would breathe some new life on this speculation phase because people are dead set on the Fighter Pass being all-third party. Hero and Banjo's inclusions have only caused people to double down on it.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Byleth
Chance: 10%
Like it or not, I firmly believe Byleth is eventually making it into Smash. If it's not this time round, then next Smash. This has been the most successful Fire Emblem game to date and certainly the most mainstream title of the series outside arguably Heroes.

If they're picking ANYONE from the game it will be Byleth though. Edlegard for all the fanfare she gets is not really any more important than either Dimitri or Claude, and whilst you can argue Byleth's only as important as those three too, s/he's not one of three counterparts and is the central protagonist.

Want: 70%
You know what? Fire Emblem kind of deserves to be 'overpopulated' now.

Heroes has been a mega success that has net Nintendo a cool $500 million, which is an impressive enough amount to place Fire Emblem amongst Nintendo's biggest selling series. Hell, it's outdone Animal Crossing, Pokemon(Not Go, Nintendo don't really own that one) AND Mario in mobile sales which is pretty mind boggling honestly.

Couple that with how the series has booned post Awakening with Chrom's game saving the series from certain cancellation and Corrin's game being the overall best seller(excluding Heroes) of the franchise and now Three Houses making TWICE the initial sales of Fates and almost double that of Awakenings, and Byleth, frankly deserves to be included amongst the best of the Fire Emblem cast for what s/he represents.

As a character I haven't really gotten the chance to experience much of them, but a chain whip sword is at least different from the many other standard blade users to make Byleth fun to play.

Plus male and female varients which are always good.

It's a wacky time to be alive where Fire Emblem has surpassed Pokemon in current interest levels for me, but here we are.

Edelgard
Chance: 1%
I'm in that rare camp that thinks it'll be Byleth or bust. Edelgard is popular amongst Smash fans, but it mostly seems to be an outcry against everyone being a sword user. Functionally an axe isn't that different from a hammer or sword IMO and I don't think Nintendo would arbitarily select one of the three house heads without the other two. Even Charizard came with Squirtle and Ivysaur after all.

Want: 55%
I don't really dislike Edelgard either, I just think her liklihood is overstated compared to Dimitri and Claude in Smash speculation and I almost wouldn't want her in without her two rivals.

Dimitri
Chance: 1%
Same as Edelgard. He's a lance user which would at least function with more range, but the liklihood of him getting in over Edelgard or especially Byleth is low.

Want: 54%
See Edelgard. His range and weapon choice would give him a more unique feel on the battlefield compared to Edelgard's shorter range melee weapon but I don't really want him in the game without Edelgard and Claude alongside him. Just feels wrong.

Claude
Chance: 1%
Again, Claude isn't likely to be chosen over Byleth and certainly not without the other two house heads alongside him. We have a few archers already on the roster too so he's a little redundant compared to the other three unless they incorporate his

Spoiler

knowledge of poisons into the mix.

Want: 58%
Claude's probably my favourite of the three house heads, but that's mostly because I love bow users and his personality is very appealing to me. I know full well the personality won't translate brilliantly to a fighting game however and once again, without Edelgard or Dimitri, Claude on his own would feel a little weird to me personally.

Shockingly, between the time Sm4sh and Ultimate's DLC has started coming out I've become far more receptive to more Fire Emblem characters.

Maybe because we got Chrom, whom I fell in love with due to Warriors(and I really want to replay Awakening now I've opened my eyes to his character rather than cynically writing him off as just Marth and Ike's lovechild) or maybe because I've jumped on the Heroes bandwagon recently and everyone I know is loving Three Houses so much I just can't help but feel a little fonder towards the series.

Nominations:
Lara Croft X 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Dumb, dumber, dumbest, dumbeldore
Chance:
Byleth: 15% .They'd get the player-character priviledge.
Edelgard: 5%. From what I've heard the most popular and the one Nintendo's been pushing the most.
Dimitri & Claude: 0.5% each. Not nearly as popular. IMO only possible if we they were part of a -like switching character, which would not go over well.

I don't really see any of them particularly likely as I have kinda given up on a first-party character this pass and believe Nintendo also learned from the backlash Corrin got. Also, since Three houses is already out and doing well it doesn't really need the extra promotion now, does it?

Want: 0% (for all of them)
I am biased and don't want the FE character count to almost triple the amount of Kirby characters. I am beyond tired of this series and you can blame Corrin in Sm4sh for that.

Tekken rep: 19.46%
SNK rep: 17.28%
Adeline x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

(Disclaimer: I'm only halfway through the Blue Lions route. No intentional spoilers.)

Likeliest To Be Mistaken For The Undead

Chance: 20%
While we still have no hard confirmation that brand-new first party games won't appear in the Fighter Pass beyond spirit cameos, it's a tough time for any Fire Emblem character to be making a case. Hero pushes the saturation of anime fantasy warriors in Smash to a ridiculous breaking point, albeit in a generaly unseen way because he doesn't add to the critical mass of Fire Emblem reps.

Moveset-wise, Byleth has the privilege of wielding a whip-sword, giving Sakurai the opportunity to add such a weapon without having to cameo Ivy from SoulCalibur. That alone could carry a character, but Byleth still wouldn't have any other distinguishing extra tools like a Thunder tome or dragon limbs (unless one thinks they can try to do Witch Time right for once). Many people rightfully complain that Fire Emblem has a plethora of weapons that go unrepresented, which is part of why Byleth's students have any kind of upper hand over them.

However, Three Houses is probably just going to miss the window of opportunity for Smash newcomers. The next Smash game is nowhere near even consideration, and given the expected lifespan of the Switch, there'll be more than enough time for a new Fire Emblem game to appear before they start considering first-party newcomers again. Byleth (as well as the house leaders) would have to contend with whoever's the main focus of that game, as well as most of the other veteran Fire Emblem lords vying for the inevitably narrowed-down slots.

Want: 60%
Why did they have to spend their surplus FE slot on Corrin? Three Houses is everything Fates wishes it was - well-written, engaging, and full of three-dimensional characters that one can actually respect. It embodies so much of what made Fire Emblem appealing in the first place while making such a strong attempt to evolve it, and it's a damn shame there's no more space for that franchise in Smash. (I'd have no qualms making space for it, certainly.)


Best Student in Imperial French History

Chance: 10%
An axe is still a Doriyah expanded into a moveset. Should Edelgard be used for that, when other franchises might offer more dedicated axe/club wielders? Even within Fire Emblem, though, it'd be a poorer choice than bringing back Hector, and that inevitable fight is one I don't look forward to seeing.

Want: 30%
Fire Emblem has never really been one to stop and wonder about why you need to murder so many people. It's generally handwaved away as them simply being enemies that can't be negotiated with (unless they have a unique hair color). If nothing else, Edelgard forces a more interesting choice than Fates does, and might be one of the most morally-complex characters ever born under the Nintendo banner.


Likeliest To Accidentally Destroy Everything

Chance: 15%
He's a lance wielder, which would of course put him at odds with Bandana Dee. Fire Emblem's list of lancer candidates has both Ephraim and Fjorm in it, the latter of whom has the most moveset potential of them all. Dimitri just might become a new fan favorite as Three Houses exposure matures, but he'll have a tough time arguing for himself as the lance newcomer no matter what.

Want: 35%
He's not generic, he's just forced into difficult positions by circumstances beyond his control. It'd be cool to see him in Smash somehow - while Fjorm is more appealing moveset-wise, Dimitri's a ton more complex as a character, which I like a lot more.


Best Minecraft Server Host

Chance: 5%
If Decidueye couldn't make the cut, then Claude wouldn't have an easy time either. While he's the first bow lord in the series, archery isn't a skill that's sorely lacking in Smash, nor requested from the Fire Emblem base as much as axes and lances are. Lyn and Takumi certainly give him a run for his money as well; the former is far more entrenched in Smash speculation, while the latter stands out as one of Fates' better characters.

Want: 30%
Ah, Claude, casually chilling in the bleachers with popcorn while everyone else works themselves up. He's certainly the most eye-catching of the three, and there isn't anyone yet in Smash who can fire a bow upside-down like he can. Still, a guy can't sell himself just by seeming to be the most fun of the house leaders.



Nominations
Papyrus x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This is from my shallow dive. I am only about halfway done with the BE route, and have started an early run (CH 4) for the other two houses to meet their lords.

Keep in mind, I have only hit the timeskip on one file, so yeah.

Claude

5% Chance

Archers are something that smash may technically have with the Links and the Pits, but we have never seen a full blown archer before. That diversity does help Claude's case. If he was the only lord, I would probably rate him higher. But alas, there is competition.

100% Want

Claude is a bro. Simple as that. He is just a mentally well adjusted bro, which is nice. Furthermore the idea of an archer moveset would interest me greatly. I feel he would be a blast to play. Might like him more if I play the other routes too.

Dmitri

5% Chance

Once again, another case of competition. It is like IS designed the characters to make it so FE complaints of Lords and Swords would go away. That being said, competition.

100% Want

He is a good boy. His design after the timeskip is by far my favorite of the three. From what I heard from my friend playing the game, his story is a sad one when you do his route, but I do not know yet.

Blyeth

1% Chance

Yeah, yeah, MC and whatnot. But the Sword of the Creator only does so much. They do not visually brim with moveset potential for me like the other two do, which hurts them.

0% Want

Yeah, Blyeth is kinda boring. Having a mostly silent MC makes it so I do not personally find them engaging. It often feels that Blyeth exists as an emotional anchor for everyone else. Compared to everyone else, I would find Blyeth the most boring.

Now for the big guns.

Edeglard

50% Chance

I honestly think if we are going to get any character from Three Houses, or a Nintendo character at all, it will be Edelgard. Now what puts her ahead of the other two house leaders? Two things, which ultimately tie into each other: Presentation and Popularity. Edelgard is more than any of the lords the face of Three Houses. The games reveal came with her narration. She tends to be the one who shows up most prominently in the marketing. This popularity in marketing has lead to her popularity in general, with the BE being the most chosen route by a country mile. Furthermore, Edelgard has the moveset potential that the others do as well with her axe. Also...

Spoiler

Edelgard would also count as an antagonist. Due to how her actions drive the plot as the Flame Emperor and her war on the Church, it is easy to see how she can be counted as an antagonist far easier than Dmitri or Claude. As such, having an FE antagonist who is as well written and complex as Edelgard would be great. In FE, you got tiers for your villains. Most of them kinda suck, but then you got great villains like the Black Knight, Sephirim, and Lyon. Edelgard is easily in that tier and is likely the best written villain too. That being said BK is still my favorite.

100% want

I like all the leaders, but due to what I have said above, Edelgard is my favorite. It also helps that Axes are one of my favorite weapons, so seeing an Axe user at the front makes me happy.

Furthermore I just wanna say to everyone here: play Three Houses. From what I have played this is easily an S tier Fire Emblem. It is one of the greats alongside GotHW and PoR. The gameplay is fun, supports have improved in my opinion, and most of all the writing is great. The characters all except Blyeth are well written and have great VAs. I would say it is my GotY so far, but there is not much competition aside from CTR.

Day will end at midnight.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Extending the deadline to 12 pm est due to medical reasons.

 

[Diddy Kong]

I almost would’ve been missed this because of Three Houses. I’m a lot less active here because of the game.

Anyway, going with Blyeth first:

Chance: 40%

I think he’s easily set for the next game. It’s a very popular character, Three Houses sells like hot cakes, there’s lots of potential for a unique move set (especially the promoted version, non spoilers). I however don’t think it’s all too likely now, because of Corrin last time. I doubt they will use the same trick twice, but I wouldn’t mind if they did.

Want: 85%

Blyeth is a cool character. Grown on me a lot since playing Three Houses. Probably the only remotely likely first part owned character, and that makes me want him more.

Edelgard

Chance: 20%

Lower than Blyeth, but I estimate her chances higher than the other house leaders because apparently her popularity , and well

Spoiler

she is still a major villain in the other routes if you don’t choose her, giving her role a slight boost in prominence overall

. There’s unique potential with her as a more heavy axe fighter, a popular idea for Smash since Hector.

Want: 35%

She’s definitely not my favorite Lord of the three. But she has unique potential. Potential Is much rather have see Hector do, mind you. I also don’t think her weapon would offer all that much uniqueness compared to Ike, who swings Ragnell like an axe, but yeah. It’s just my preference. Also I play Blue Lions.

Dimitri

Chance: 20%

He’s less likely because he wasn’t promoted all that much. Shamefully... He’s definitely my number one pick though.

Want: 100%

Playing through Blue Lions, I became to love this character. He’s everything Ephraim should’ve been. Very great design (post time skip especially) and potential for a rough play style with his aggressive lance attacks. In regards of character, design and potential, he’s definitely my pick.

Claude

Chance: 10%

I think he’s the least popular right? Also I don’t really see pure archery as a good move set potential to Smash.

Spoiler

Especially since his canon promoted class, his unique class, is on a wyvern of all things.

. Now I don’t think it’s impossible, I just think he’s the most forgettable of all other characters mentioned.

Want: 45%

I guess I could be excited for him. But not nearly as much as Dimitri, or Blyeth. Spoilers above kinda give me a reason not to expect him either. Even if his character is cool. I plan on doing Golden Deer quickly after Blue Lions anyway.

 

[DaUsername]

Corrin 2: Electric Boogaloo
Chance: 10%
Let's see, he's the guy from the newest game and uh... that's it, really.
I can only see this guy being in if Nintendo decides to pull a Corrin and shove this guy in because he's new. But Nintendo has been learning from theirmistakes recently so that probably won't happen.

Edgelord

Spoiler

Which is apparently a more fitting name than I thought.

Chance: 10%
Nintendo seems care about this one more than the others but she also isn't the protagonist. If Nintendo repeats their mistakes it's a 50-50 shot between us getting this character and the above character.

GTA III protagonist
Chance: 0.1%
I know he's a main character but he's pretty much a nobody compared to the above two. He'll only get in if Smash decides to rebrand itself as a FE game. Which, even with the amount of characters it already has, probably won't happen.

Dmtr
Chance: 0.1%
My reasoning for Claude also applies to this guy.
Here's a second sentence in case the first one wasn't enough.

Want (For all of these jerks): 0%
Fire Emblem does not need any more characters. It has enough. Seriously, why does Fire Emblem always get special treatment? Why does every moderately successful FE game need a new character while games like ARMS and Xenoblade 2 get passed over? Why does FE keep getting new characters while more successful franchises like Zelda haven't gotten anything since Brawl? Why is it that after all of this, there are still people who think Fire Emblem deserves more? Enough is enough. Let some other franchise have a chance to shine for once.

Tekken prediction: 20%
SNK prediction: 30%
Noms: Another western character x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So, a lot of people just rated 3H Rep in general.

That is not what today is. I will extend the day for an additional 12 hours to allow corrections and to rate what is actually on the schedule.

 

[Sid-cada]

Blyeth

Chance - 5% - As thus far been proven, typically the main character will get in before any other characters are considered, baring unusual circumstances. That said, there defensively is some sort of stigma against Fire Emblem right now. Sakurai himself was hesitant with Corin, so Blyeth might be in a worse spot than them. Unless there is some real presure, or Sakurai somehow gets a crazy idea, I don't see them getting in.

Elegard

Chance - 2.5% - She's the one of the three that is pushed the most. She also has enough story importance to rival that of Blyeth. Depending on how things go, she might get chosen if Blyeth does not suit Sakurai's fancy but still has to include a three houses regardless. Otherwise, I don't see her happening.

The other guys

Chance - 0.01% - Outside of some crazy fancy, Sakurai will probably skip over these guys for being too minor to include. It's a tough call, but I don't think they really have anything going for them.


Want for all - 20% - Unless they do something crazy, I don't really care about them. The only Fire Emblem character I want playable is Anna, and even then I would rather wait. I don't care about RPGs anyway.


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[Ornl]

I share my feelings. For me, the time between each "day" is too long. Since July 18, there have been 3 "days". It's 3 "days" in 21 days = 1 "day" per week. At this rate, many voted nominations won't be rated until February. So, I feel some frustration.

 

[Calamitas]

So, a lot of people just rated 3H Rep in general.

That is not what today is. I will extend the day for an additional 12 hours to allow corrections and to rate what is actually on the schedule.

Does it still count if the chances and want are given for two at once, like I did with Claude and Dimitri?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I share my feelings. For me, the time between each "day" is too long. Since July 18, there have been 3 "days". It's 3 "days" in 21 days = 1 "day" per week. At this rate, many voted nominations won't be rated until February. So, I feel some frustration.

Today got extended due to several people not rating it right. Furthermore, days get extended the more participation there is. If I still see active participation, I keep the discussion going. Earlier I adheared to a stricter schedule during the dlc cycle, but that lead to more lopsided results and actually less participation. As such, days generally go on a bit longer.

As for the longer length recently, that is mainly due to slower participation right now. For a variety of reasons, days were extended. I wanted people to have some time to play with Hero or try out Three Houses since I felt they would affect ratings. While there are plans to speed things up after the fixed ratings are done, right now we will still go a bit slow. Days will likely be 2-3 days in the future, since longer days tend to lead to better data.

Does it still count if the chances and want are given for two at once, like I did with Claude and Dimitri?

I will allow want to be compiled for once, but chance I do not want compiled.

In order to make this easier, I will tag everyone who would need to edit their post.

Sid-cada just a bit on Claude and Dmitri for their scores to count, otherwise aces
Ornl more in general or separate then all
ze9 separate them or more info
Kitty-chan more info
P Playstation Guy 1000 more info

This is me being a bit conservative, but overall good discussion today

 

[TCT~Phantom]

day Over.

Rate concept: SNK Rep and concept: Tekken rep

 

[Sari]

♪ SNK Music ♪

For SNK music, here are some songs relating to Fatal Fury, King of Fighters, Samurai Shodown, and Metal Slug:

Spoiler: SNK songs

And as a bonus here are some of my personal favorite SNK songs:

Spoiler

♪ Tekken Music ♪

For Tekken music, here are some songs relating to Heihachi, Kazuya, Jin, and Tekken 7:

Spoiler: Tekken songs

I'll post my ratings in a bit.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Heihachi Mishima

Chance: 15%
There's no Tekken rep that would get in that isn't Heihachi. He's the face of Tekken and will continue to be. The VA thing was proven to not be an issue recently so I think there's a fair chance that Heihachi could be in Smash. However, I'm reluctant to call it because of the 'new to Smash' comment: Heihachi is in Ultimate as part of Pac-Man's taunt and used to be a Mii Costume. I could also see Lloyd getting in or Bandai Namco just deciding to forgo a character this time around.

Want: 90%
Heihachi is an iconic character and a villain. He adds so much to Smash, so yeah please let's get him in.

Inb4 Orln comes in talking about how Heihachi is a sub-Ryu and everyone laughs at that notion.

Terry Bogard

Chance: 4%
To be fair Terry isn't the sole SNK character that could show up. Kyo is also a contender, Metal Slug could happen, and there's a Piranha Plant chance that someone else like Mai or Nakoruru shows up. However they're all relatively obscure, with only Terry being anywhere close to iconicness (though as franchises Metal Slug, KoF, and to a lesser degree Fatal Fury have strong name recognition - and with the recent reboot I think the case could be made for SamSho). We know Sakurai is a fan of fighting games and specifically of KoF, so could he add a rep?

To be honest I think it's unlikely that he would do so, at least before Tekken. SNK is important, but Tekken is Tekken. I would understand going for SNK before Mortal Kombat because the Japanese don't like it, and even over Dead or Alive, but Tekken is on a platter, it's more iconic, it's more influential, it's more successful. So yeah, I don't think so.

That would leave Metal Slug as a possible franchise to rep. Something to keep in mind I guess.

Want: 70%
SNK is a very important dev for gaming history. Their content is top-notch and they have a few classic franchises under their belt. I'd like to see a rep from them.

Noms: Kyle Hyde X5

Predictions
Agumon: 6%
Jibanyan: 10%

 

[Sari]

Concept: SNK rep

Chance: 10%
As some of you may remember, I did a giant writeup many months back on this. There is no way in hell I'm writing up another giant essay so I'll just link the old one here and post my updates on it.

Click here to read my giant SNK writeup​

So what has changed since then? First off in terms of personal views, I've changed the order of which SNK characters I think would be the most likely. If SNK had to choose a character, I now think their priorities would go something like this:

Terry > Kyo > Nakoruru > Haohmaru > Mai > Metal Slug rep > Athena > everyone else​

• Terry is without a doubt the most likely SNK rep. He's practically the face of the company and is their most popular character.
• Kyo is the next runnerup, being the main character of SNK's longest running series and being very popular on his own.
• Nakoruru benefits from being one of SNK's most popular characters and can be seen as a mascot for the company along with Terry. The main thing holding her back is that she is not the main character of her own game.
• Haohmaru is another popular SNK character who has the recent Samurai Shodown Reboot to give him a boost in popularity. He has roughly more or less the same amount of things going for him as Nakoruru, though one slight advantage he has is that he is the main character of their series.
• Mai is also incredibly popular though if Mythra and Camilla's censored spirits are anything to go by then it'll be difficult to implement her costume/sex appeal without hampering it greatly. Also like Nakoruru she is not the main character of her game meaning she'd probably be ignored over Terry.
• Metal Slug is probably SNK's biggest non-FG series and could probably work in a Bowser Jr./Hero alt type of character.
• Athena is one of SNK's older characters who is a KoF regular. Nothing really going against her but it's just that the others are more popular.

As for recent news, SNK has been doing good especially thanks to the recent Samurai Shodown reboot which turned up profits from its preorders alone. Obviously this won't be much of a factor for this wave of DLC since this all happened this year though its a sign that SNK is becoming more appealing to the casual audience. Hoahmaru appearing in Soul Caliber 6 is yet another sign that SNK is very big on crossovers (this is like their 6th recent FG crossover).

Overall while I'm not as confident in this as I once was especially since we only have 2 spots left, I think SNK being in Smash is something to look forward to in the future.

I actually typed that up that last sentence before I remembered SNK's tagline is literally "the future is now."

Want: 100%
Anyone who is familiar with me here (or at least has seen my signature) probably already knew what this score was going to be. I'm down for just about any SNK representation in Smash.

-----

Concept: Tekken rep

Chance: 20%
This might come as a surprise to many especially since I've been pushing hard for an SNK rep, but after thinking about it for a while I think we have a decent chance of getting a Tekken character. Recently, I did a big writeup in the newcomer discussion thread on the chances of us getting Heihachi (who I think is the undisputed Tekken candidate). I'll just summarize the main points here:

+ Tekken is currently one of Namco's biggest series especially with Tekken 7 surpassing 4 million copies.
+ Sakurai considered Heihachi for SSB4 and we've seen Sakurai go back on previous ideas before with characters like Chrom.
+ Since Namco helped out with Ultimate I think it is somewhat likely that we'll get another character from them.
+ Heihachi will be appearing in the King of Fighters All-Stars mobile game, which uses full voice-acting for its characters. Whether it means Heihachi will get a new VA or that they'll reuse his clips from Tekken 7, it shows that Heihachi's character is not retired at least for spin-offs.
- Sakurai mentioned that it would be tough to implement Tekken's limb-based fighting into Smash.
- Heihachi appears in Pac-Man's taunt. While that is obviously not a deconfirmation on its own, it can viewed as a consolation prize for not getting Heihachi added whether it was due to his VA recently passing away or other issues.
- He has competition with other Namco characters, specifically a Tales character.

I should also add something new after seeing Hero's moveset and how heavily inspired it is from the DQ games, I am 100% convinced that if we get Heihachi or any other Tekken character, they will have to majorly utilize Tekken's limb-based fighting. It's the biggest aspect of Tekken's gameplay that it just can't be ignored especially if Sakurai intends to make the character stay true to their series.

Want: 50%
I'd be alright with us getting a Tekken character even though I never really got into the series. That said however, a small part of me doesn't want this to happen since it'd probably kill the chances of us getting an SNK character. I don't see us getting more than one fighting game character for this wave that have the side switch thing that Ryu/Ken have.

-----

Agumon chance prediction: 6.32%
Jibanyan chance prediction: 19.83%

-----

Nominations:
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Tekken Rep (Mainly Heihachi, Kazuya and Jin)
Chance: 70%
I think that, right now, Tekken is the strongest series for a possible Bamco character. While Tales is still very much a contender and Dark Souls is a dark soul horse pick, Tekken would bring an entirely new genre to the pass, one that so far only has two other series in Smash as a whole. And considering Tekken's popularity and how it's arguably bigger than even Street Fighter at this point in time, I think there's actually only one thing against the Mishima boys: whether or not Sakurai has thought of a way to implement them in Smash in a manner that satisfies him. And even then, if other games managed to do it, I think Sakurai can.

In fact, we need to remember that Sakurai namedropped Heihachi when asked about other Namco characters that were strong contenders for Smash besides Pac-Man. This is incredibly rare especially for third parties and, in most cases, Sakurai ended up reconsidering and finding a way to make that character work in a future installment.

Want: 50%
I'll be perfectly honest and say that I'm not big on Tekken. At the same time... it's Tekken. Second best selling fighting game series, only behind Smash itself, pretty much a trendsetter for 3D fighters and one of the biggest competitive games right now. I feel like if Pac represents old-school Namco, then Tekken is the perfect franchise to give modern Namco a nod.

SNK Rep
Chance: 40%
It could be that I'm just being optimistic, but as I said in the Kyo thread, I think SNK's chances are higher than they've ever been. They're back in the spotlight after a long period of near-stagnation, got a number of recent crossovers with other fighting games and are releasing new stuff in an almost yearly basis. A small list for reference, made by Sari back at the Kyo thread:

• Terry Bogard in EX Fighting Layer
• Geese Howard in Tekken 7
• Iori Yagami in Million Arthur Arcana Blood
• Mai Shiranui in Dead or Alive 5 (and 6)
• Kula in Dead or Alive 6
• Haohmaru in Soul Calibur 6

These are all very recent crossovers. And with SamSho in full steam and KOF XV in the horizon, things are looking pretty good right now. I'd even go as far as saying that if there is a fighting game character in the remaining slots and it isn't Tekken, then that character would come from SNK.

That said... it would be interesting to see a character that they haven't recently promoted yet... the only really popular ones remaining are Kyo (KOF) and Nakoruru (SamSho). Terry will always be a contender, because he's Mr. SNK, but I wonder why they haven't used those two yet. Metal Slug is my arcade baby, but I really don't think Marco will make it before any of those guys.

Want: 100%
One of the last notable japanese companies not in Smash, who once went toe-to-toe with Capcom for the fighting game crown, SNK feels like it would be perfect for a final spot on the Pass. Especially considering how much influence Smash actually seems to draw from their games (guard-breaking, spot dodging, rolling, the Tag Team mode in Ultimate, along with the very fact that KOF, released about five years before Smash 64, is a crossover fighter itself for SNK).

Particularly, I've started supporting Kyo, if you couldn't tell by my nominations. That led me back into KOF 2002 after years of not playing. Right now, I think he's legitimately one of my top picks for Ultimate DLC.

Predictions
Agumon: 8%
Jibanyan: 5%

Nominations
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[3DSNinja]

abstaining because I don't play Tekken or SNK besides Metal Slug, therefore I can't give a want.
Nominations:
Specter Knight x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

SNK Rep

Chance: 20%

SNK is defiinitely a darkhorse pick in terms of characters. They also made several notable fighting Games like King of Fighters for example. The two most likely characters from them would be Terry Bogard and Nakoruru who are considered the company's mascots. However they do have competition with other Japanese game companies like Koei Tecmo for one of the last two spots.

Want: 60%

They do have interesting characters. And I would want Nakoruru mainly to have SamSho content in Smash although Tam-Tam is my favorite SamSho character.

Tekken Rep

Chance: 15%

The main rival to Tales in being the 2nd series added from Bamco for a playable character. While an undoubtedly successful series with Heihachi being the most likely pick. And that mobile game with Tekken characters as guests seems to disprove the voice actor thing, at least for spin-offs. There's still a very glaring problem in integrating Tekken's gameplay into Smash. Sakurai clearly wants to implement a guest character's gameplay mechanics into their moveset FAITHFULLY, but Sakurai finds it difficult to implement Tekken's 3D gameplay into a 2D Fighter like Smash. While he has changed his mind before with other characters, the work around them was far easier than Heihachi. And also because Heihachi(and Gil) are in Pac-Man's taunt already.

Want: 40%

I'm not really invested into the series and I really find Heihachi to be boring TBH. I would rather have someone like King or Miguel instead of him.

Agumon Prediction: 11.44%
Jibanyan Prediction: 8.34%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[BowserKing]

Tekken Rep

Chance: 25%. Given that Tekken is very popular, a rep would be interesting. However, the competition and difficult moveset could be trouble, but Heihachi has a chance.

Want: 55% We do need another Namco Rep, and while Heihachi would have a difficult moveset, he would be a fun character to use. Since Namco helped with Smash, it would be easy to get him licensed.

SNK Rep

Chance: 10%. While another popular fighting game franchise, there would be lots of competition. But who knows what will happen.

Chance: 55%. Again, a rep like Mai would be a fun character to play. But then again, it depends on time and patience.

Noms: 2 for Adeleine, 1 for Decidueye and 2 for Black Shadow

 

[Neosonic97]

While I made predictions on the subject, I'm ultimately gonna have to abstain on chance/want ratings on this one. I have nowhere near enough knowledge on SNK, and my feelings regarding Tekken are all over the place right now.

Noms: Reimu x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Tekken Rep

Chance 10 - Not confident in this at all. Feel like the best pick was Heihachi, which seems very unlikely now that he's been retired due to the death of his voice actor. He's also a part of Pac-Mans taunt, which I don't think was there in Smash 4. Nintendo is close to Namco though so I guess it could happen.

Want 20 - Eh, it would be ok I guess. Never touched Tekken before so I don't really have much of a want for a character from the game


SNK Rep
Chance 0 - Scrolling through the Wikipedia for SNK games as I type this(ok, not exactly at the same time, that's almost impossible.) and I'm not really seeing any series that I think would be picked for a Smash spot. Terry Bogard seems like the most likely name that could be selected, but will he? I'm not really feeling like he will. For a season 2 pass or something I could see that happening but I don't feel like he's big enough to get in, especially with only 2 spots left.

Want 10 - Like I said above, there's not many people I really want to see from the franchise get in.

Noms - Ellie x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'd like to thank everyone for making their posts mostly spoiler-free. Even those who included spoilers wrote enough outside of the tag, so I didn't have to read any spoilers.

However, a ****-ton of you didn't get your scores counted because you didn't give enough reasoning for Dmitri and Claude - some apparently though that lumping them together meant they could do half as many sentences.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Byleth/Edelgard/Dmitri/Claude pre-Concept: Tekken rep/Concept: SNK rep

Heavy (Team Fortress) x198
Crono x165
Kyle Hyde x160
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x160
Kamek x149
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x135
Saber (Fate) x132

150 - 101

Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Rundas x115
Gene (God Hand) x115
Velvet Crowe x115
Ninten x110
Specter Knight x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Terry Bogard x95
[Rerate] Micaiah x95
Adeleine (Kirby) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
9-Volt x85
Captain Rainbow x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Jin Kazama x75
Blaze the Cat x70
Concept: More Bosses x70
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x70
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x65
Concept: Another western character x65
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x60
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Kyo Kusanagi x55
Lara Croft x55
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Kratos x45
Proto Man x40
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Amaterasu x40
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Cooking Mama x30
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x30
Gex x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x20
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x18
Marx (Kirby) x17
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Black Shadow x15
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x15
Concept: Another joke character x13
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
[Rerate] Tetromino x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Gordon Freeman x8
Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Urbosa x5
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Concept: Idolm@ster rep x5
Lizalfos x4
Concept: No More DLC x3
Concept: More Fighter Passes x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Rockstar Games rep shoots past Saber and steals sixth place from her.

Kyo Kusanagi, Lara Croft, and Another western character cross the 50 nom mark.

Today's new concept is Idolm@ster rep, with 5 nominations.

Also, a reminder. You have 3 days - counting today - to get characters or concepts into the top seven. The new top seven will be locked after Crash and Spyro's day. You have one additional day to get your characters up to 50 noms - after Maxwell and Hollow Knight's day there will be a nominations purge. That means if you're not at 30 noms already, you better start winning those predictions, asking others for help, or you might as well pick somebody above 50 for now.

Spoiler: Calcs

Byleth
13.35% Chance, 40.87% Want
Winner of predictions was Artix with 13.25%

Edelgard
13.57% Chance, 50.68% Want
Winner of predictions was Artix with 13.25%
Last time we rated her she got 25.85% Chance and 25.66% Want. This was pre-release and she was the second character rated for DLC. Obviously chance score was pretty high as we were coming off Incineroar and the idea of an advertising first-party rep was very present in people's minds. However, while at that point she was the face of an ugly phenomenom, now that Three Houses is out she is a beloved character.

Dmitri
4.11% Chance, 37.64% Want
Winner of predictions was @Velveeta Dream with 4.10%

Claude
2.90% Chance, 38.91% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 2.89%

Worth noting that today's predictions were incredibly accurate. A 0.01% difference for two of them, and 0.1% for another.

For reference, the concept of a Three Houses rep was rated 14.81% Chance and 26.68% Want

The people with extra noms are

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DaUsername 50
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 40
Nemuresu 10
RealPokeFan11 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 10
shocktarts17 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Ultomato 5
@Velveeta Dream 10

PlayStation All Stars could make it more difficult

How would Playstation Allstars make it more difficult? That game came out years ago.

Not confident in this at all. Feel like the best pick was Heihachi, which seems very unlikely now that he's been retired due to the death of his voice actor.

Heihachi is going to be in a KoF mobile game, complete with voice acting. So they either don't have a problem with reusing old clips, or they've already recast him. Given the timeline of events, it's even possible that the decision to include him in Smash is what led to the recasting/decision to reuse clips.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

SNK rep: Abstain, don't know enough about the characters.

Tekken Rep:

Chance: 35% - Tekken is one of the big contenders for a second Namco rep and undoubtably Heihachi would be the primary choice, being the face of the series. Like many have stated, he's been mentioned by Sakurai and was intended for Smash 4 before being cut. While his main gimmick would be difficult to introduce, if done correctly it could result in an extremely unique fighter that stands out greatly, and would do a lot to differentiate him from Ryu and Ken.

While he is in Pac's Taunt, the Sprite is pulled from another game rather than being custom, and his Mii costume isn't yet present, and the VA issue qouldn't get in the way, so things are looking pretty good for Heihachi. While Lloyd I'd also a threat to his inclusion, if Sakurai goes for genre balance with the Pass then Hero's inclusion might've boosted Heihachi's chances.

Want: 10% - He'd certainly be more interesting to me than a Tales rep and he definitely deserves a spot on the roster. However, my most wanted character for the roster is The Prince of All Cosmos from Katamari Damacy, and both Lloyd and Heihachi provide some extremely tough competition. Still, while Heihachi wouldn't be one of my choices for a roste addition, he'd still be a welcome one.


Nominations:

[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
[Rerate] Prince of all Cosmos x5

Hey there! I don't think I've seen you around here before, so welcome to the thread if that's the case. Keep in mind that you only have 5 nominations per day to allocate.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Hey there! I don't think I've seen you around here before, so welcome to the thread if that's the case. Keep in mind that you only have 5 nominations per day to allocate.

Ah, this is my first time doing this so my apologies for the mistake! I edited the post and went with the Dovakiin rerate for this day, and I'll save the Prince rerate for the next day!

 

[Calamitas]

I'll be abstaining for both chance and want on the Tekken and SNK rep. I literally know nothing about either of those series, and would only give big fat zeroes in terms of want, anyway.

Nominating Amaterasu x5.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

Tekken Rep

Chances: 50%
As it stands, Tekken is currently of the biggest IPs Bamco has under its belt of which Sakurai has mentioned in passing for potentially getting a character in on more than one occasion. Its current popularity is significantly higher than ever and it cannot be understated how much influence Tekken has had on its own genre, especially 3D fighters; and it's clear that Sakurai recognizes the impact it has made.

With the issue of Heihachi's voice actor becoming a non-factor with the announcement of Heihachi and others coming to KOF All-Stars, the only real problem I see with a Tekken character's inclusion is what Sakurai has said about implementing his move set in a way that he approves of. Of course, this is Sakurai, so this could potentially resolve itself in this DLC cycle, but I do think his talk about even just Heihachi's move set could damage the chances of a Tekken character getting in.

Want: 30%
While I'm certainly no Tekken fanboy, much less a fan by any means, this is Tekken we're talking about, so I would like to see a character get in to some extent; and while I would get excited for their reveal, I personally haven't had much of a connection to Tekken as a series, even as someone who enjoys fighting games, so I can only put them so far up on my want list.

SNK Rep

Chances: 30%
SNK, imo, is what I consider to be a darkhorse for this DLC cycle. SNK has been starting to get back into their groove as of late with KOF XIV, SamSho, KOF XV, the plethora of SNK characters crossing over into other fighting games and so on; and with all the things that Sari and 3BitSaurus have mentioned regarding the chances of an SNK rep getting into Smash, there's little to be said that wouldn't just be retreading ground that's already been covered. That being said, I do think that the chances of one getting in are slim, especially compared to titles and series with significantly more acclaim like Tekken.

The only semi-substantial point I can make is that there's much more support than even I had initially thought, not just for KOF, but SNK as a whole. After @NinNakajima on twitter posted a commission I requested of Kyo Kusanagi in Smash, the amount of talk that not only just Kyo and KOF, but SNK as a whole has been getting with that tweet was on a level that didn't expect to see. The likes, RTs and comments really speak for themselves.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Want: 100%

As you may not be able to tell, my profile pic is of KUSANAGI, from SNK's KoF series, which is one of my most favourite characters from one of my most favourite FG series; which even my twitter name reflects this. Not only that, but SNK has a plethora of titles under its belt, most of which I find to be incredibly entertaining, such as Fatal Fury, Art of Fighting, Samurai Shodown, Last Blade and Metal Slug, all of which have great potential picks for potential Smash newcomers.

More than anything, I'm moreso surprised that SNK has no representation in Smash whatsoever as of yet, not even with spirits. As of now, they're my #1 pick for a new company to be introduced to Smash with a playable character, and by quite a large margin, so it'd be criminal if didn't at least gave it 100%.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Deleted member]

SNeK

Chance: 35%

SNK has done a lot of crossovers with various fighting games in the past several years. They've even ported a great amount of games to the Switch, so there isn't really anything that could potentially stop them from getting a character in Smash aside from Nintendo themselves or, in an extreme case, CERO because of some of the designs on certain female characters. I don't really have a lot to add about an SNK rep because I'm not really all too familiar with most of their games, but I will say the chance rating is fairly low since most of their popular characters are in other recent fighting games, which usually makes me expect to not see them in Smash (except for Kyo since it seems he hasn't appeared in 1 recently). They do have other franchises that could be in Smash that isn't just KoF or Fatal Fury, but I'm not so sure if Metal Slug is the kind of series that would get a lot of people to be hyped about its inclusion VIA the Fighter Pack. I can't really say anything about Samurai Shodown since the latest installment only came out this year after a decade long absence.

Want: 45%

It'd be nice to see since I don't like the idea that both Capcom and Bandai Namco are guaranteed to have a fighter in the Pass (I'd rather have 1 of them and not both), but I do hope it's a character who hasn't been in a fighting game crossover yet (excluding mobile and card games they don't count). Don't get me wrong, I'd be okay with seeing someone like Geese Howard or Mai in Smash but would feel pretty lukewarm about it since I've already seen them in other recent fighting game crossovers previously. I've never played any of the Metal Slug games so I don't really know who the characters are in that game, and the same goes for SamSho. I thought Haohmaru's reveal for Soulcalibur VI was cool but since my knowledge of the franchise he's from was very minimal I couldn't say I wanted to see how he looks in the game itself. Overall, I'm open to SNK getting a character in Smash more than other characters so long as they haven't been in other recent crossovers, but whether if I like them or not heavily depends on how they look and play in Smash itself.
-----------------------------------
"That was some Good Ass Tekken"

Chance: 27%

Tekken 7 being 1 of the most popular fighting games currently seems to be 1 of its strongest reasonings for being in the Fighter Pass, and I can't argue with that. Its presence in the competitive scene and the sales it has garnered since launch pretty much speak for itself. The question that will be purposed is who would rep Tekken. Could it be Jin? Could it be Kazuya? Could it be Heihachi despite the VA stuff? Could it even be Kuma?

No matter what the answer is, it ultimately comes down to whether if Sakurai found a way to implement Tekken's mechanics to Smash's mechanics that satisfies him. It's important to remember that Sakurai said while Nintendo chose the characters he was the 1 that decides if he can make it work. Has he somehow found a way to make Tekken in Smash work after a couple of years? Heihachi's cameo in Pac-Man's taunt tells me otherwise since there wasn't a Tales or Soulcalibur character in it, but if I were to give the benefit of the doubt, most of the sprites in that taunt weren't in Ultimate as spirits. There may be hope for a Tekken character in the Fighter Pass, but I'm not going to count on it.

Want: 35%

Well, I've been routing for a Soulcalibur rep way more than I have with any Tekken character, so I can't say I'd want to see any Tekken characters in Smash as the BN rep. They'd make an alright pick for the Fighter Pass no doubt, and I favor Jin, Kazuya, and Heihachi over most Tales characters. However, I mainly find Soulcalibur to be the better fitting fighting game franchise for Smash than Tekken since Soulcalibur was the first series that brought a Nintendo character in a fighting game. I've only played a Tekken game once because it was never on any of the consoles that I grew up with (Gamecube & Wii), so I never really had any sort of memorability with the franchise. For the most part, Tekken feel like an "acceptable" series to be added in Smash. It has a legacy within the Fighting Games genre and its popularity rivals that of Street Fighter (in fact it may just be more popular than Street Fighter nowadays), but as far as a 2nd Bandai Namco rep is concerned, a few Tekken characters rank below my #1 pick for that spot (which you could probably connect the dots to who my #1 BN pick would be).
-----------------------------------
Predictions:
Agumon: 13%
Jibanyan: 6%
-----------------------------------
Noms:
Zhao Yun x10
Edited after getting an extra 5 nom: Nightmare (Soulcalibur) x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I'd like to thank everyone for making their posts mostly spoiler-free. Even those who included spoilers wrote enough outside of the tag, so I didn't have to read any spoilers.

However, a ****-ton of you didn't get your scores counted because you didn't give enough reasoning for Dmitri and Claude - some apparently though that lumping them together meant they could do half as many sentences.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Byleth/Edelgard/Dmitri/Claude pre-Concept: Tekken rep/Concept: SNK rep

Heavy (Team Fortress) x198
Crono x165
Kyle Hyde x160
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x160
Kamek x149
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x135
Saber (Fate) x132

150 - 101

Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Rundas x115
Gene (God Hand) x115
Velvet Crowe x115
Ninten x110
Specter Knight x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Terry Bogard x95
[Rerate] Micaiah x95
Adeleine (Kirby) x95
Frogger x85
Glover x85
9-Volt x85
Captain Rainbow x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Jin Kazama x75
Blaze the Cat x70
Concept: More Bosses x70
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x70
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x65
Concept: Another western character x65
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x60
Brian (Quest 64) x60
Papyrus x56
Kyo Kusanagi x55
Lara Croft x55
Decidueye x51

50 - 25

Kratos x45
Proto Man x40
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Amaterasu x40
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x38
Gooey (Kirby) x37
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Earthworm Jim x33
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Cooking Mama x30
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x30
Gex x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x22
Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x20
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x18
Marx (Kirby) x17
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Black Shadow x15
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x15
Concept: Another joke character x13
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x12
Mike Jones x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x10
[Rerate] Tetromino x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Gordon Freeman x8
Concept: At least one fighter in the Pass is not third-party x8
Blacephalon x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Serious Sam x5
Concept: A character outside the Fighter Pass x5
Goemon (Mystical Ninja) x5
Urbosa x5
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x5
[Rerate] Sans x5
Concept: Idolm@ster rep x5
Lizalfos x4
Concept: No More DLC x3
Concept: More Fighter Passes x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Rad Spencer x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Rockstar Games rep shoots past Saber and steals sixth place from her.

Kyo Kusanagi, Lara Croft, and Another western character cross the 50 nom mark.

Today's new concept is Idolm@ster rep, with 5 nominations.

Also, a reminder. You have 3 days - counting today - to get characters or concepts into the top seven. The new top seven will be locked after Crash and Spyro's day. You have one additional day to get your characters up to 50 noms - after Maxwell and Hollow Knight's day there will be a nominations purge. That means if you're not at 30 noms already, you better start winning those predictions, asking others for help, or you might as well pick somebody above 50 for now.

Spoiler: Calcs

Byleth
13.35% Chance, 40.87% Want
Winner of predictions was Artix with 13.25%

Edelgard
13.57% Chance, 50.68% Want
Winner of predictions was Artix with 13.25%
Last time we rated her she got 25.85% Chance and 25.66% Want. This was pre-release and she was the second character rated for DLC. Obviously chance score was pretty high as we were coming off Incineroar and the idea of an advertising first-party rep was very present in people's minds. However, while at that point she was the face of an ugly phenomenom, now that Three Houses is out she is a beloved character.

Dmitri
4.11% Chance, 37.64% Want
Winner of predictions was @Velveeta Dream with 4.10%

Claude
2.90% Chance, 38.91% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari with 2.89%

Worth noting that today's predictions were incredibly accurate. A 0.01% difference for two of them, and 0.1% for another.

For reference, the concept of a Three Houses rep was rated 14.81% Chance and 26.68% Want

The people with extra noms are

Artix 15
Awakining 5
DaUsername 50
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 40
Nemuresu 10
RealPokeFan11 5
Ridrool64 5
Sari 5
shocktarts17 5
Ramen Tengoku 5
Ultomato 5
@Velveeta Dream 5


How would Playstation Allstars make it more difficult? That game came out years ago.


Heihachi is going to be in a KoF mobile game, complete with voice acting. So they either don't have a problem with reusing old clips, or they've already recast him. Given the timeline of events, it's even possible that the decision to include him in Smash is what led to the recasting/decision to reuse clips.

Getting working .01? Give them 10 bonus noms

 

[GoodGrief741]

Getting working .01? Give them 10 bonus noms

Consider it done.

Sari @Velveeta Dream 5 more noms for you!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstaining. I don't know enough about either SNK or Tekken to have an opinion.

Nominations: Kratos x5

 

[Artix]

Tekken Rep

Chance: 40%
It really depends whether Sakurai had find a way to implement their movesets into Smash or not. In any case, a Tekken rep seems plausible since it's one of Bamco's biggest fighting game franchise and Bamco really needs another rep in Smash. However, it still faces competition from the Tales series, so it's pretty much a coin flip between those two series for Bamco if they want a second fighter.

Want: 90%
I love Tekken and I really want the franchise to be represented in Smash. As much as I like Heihachi to represent Tekken, I really wish Jin would represent the franchise instead since he's one of my most wanted characters in Smash.

SNK Rep

Chance: 35%
SNK had been on the roll when it comes to putting their characters in other series (Geese in Tekken 7, Mai in DOA5 and DOA6, Terry in Fighting Layer EX, Iori in Million Arthur Arcana Blood, Haohmaru in SC6 and Kula in DOA6), so I wouldn't be surprised if an SNK character appeared in Smash as DLC. Plus, they ported some of their games into the Switch and the fact that KOF XV is in development makes it a good opportunity to add them. However, since we only had two slots left in the Fighter's Pass, it faces stiff competition from other third-party franchises and some of them might have a higher priority than SNK.

Want: 80%
I have played a lot of SNK games back in the day like Metal Slug, Ikari Warriors and even Fatal Fury and recently, King of Fighters and that kinda makes me want an SNK character in Smash. As for who, Kyo and Terry comes to mind, but I kinda want Kyo to be in since Terry already had a guest appearance. Though, other franchises like SamSho and Metal Slug might have a chance to represent SNK and I wouldn't mind them either.

Predictions:
Agumon: 4.25%
Jibanyan: 10.74%

Nominations:
Saber (Fate) x20
(I really don't know how extra noms work. Do I add the 15 extra noms to the 5 noms today?)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nominations:
Saber (Fate) x20
(I really don't know how extra noms work. Do I add the 15 extra noms to the 5 noms today?)

Yes.

 

[Artix]

Yes.

Okay then. Looks like I did it right after all.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

What are the qualifications for extra noms?

 

[GoodGrief741]

What are the qualifications for extra noms?

Every day, you can attempt to predict the overall chance score for the next day's character/concept. The person that gets the closest earns 5 extra noms (or 10 if they miss by less than .01%).

Tomorrow's characters are Jibanyan and Agumon, in case you're interested.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Interesting!

I guess I'll throw in 25% for Jibanyan and 10% for Agumon, the latter's been getting a lot of buzz today but isn't likely going to get high chance scores.