Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Ryu Hayabusa (Ninja Gaiden)
Chance 60%:Ryu Hayabusa has a few things going for
1:He was one of the third party icons for the nes
2:Koei Tecmo has a good relationship with Nintendo
3:Ninja Gaiden is the biggest franchise koei tecmo is know for(aside from dead or alive)

Want 65%:while I only played a bit of ninja gaiden on the original xbox back then, I thought it would be cool to see Hayabusa joining the fight with his acrobatic skills and ninpo moves.

Chosen Undead
Chance 45%:well Dark Souls is one of most popular bandai namco franchise, one of the most popular rpg series and the character has been on Nintendo console so chosen undead is a likely candidate of potential newcomers, however at the same time I feel like chosen undead is not that likely since he's a lot more of customizable character than a standalone character, I do honestly feel soliare is more likely since he's more of a standalone character and he is the only dark souls character to received an amiibo

Want: abstain


Nominations: Earthworm Jim X5

 

[Vrbtm]

Ryu Hayabusa:

Chance: 20%. The fact that he debuted on a classic NES game gives him a modicum of a chance alone, but not only do we already have a couple of ninjas in Smash, we also already have a character named "Ryu," which kinda complicates things. I get that we already have two playable characters named "Roy," but I think that's slightly different, because the other Roy is an alternate skin of the default Bowser Jr. There's no getting around having two Ryus.

Want: 45%. He'd a better pick than most of the other horrible ideas people tend to have, but he's still just a generic ninja to me.

Chosen Undead:

Chance: 1%. If we were to get a Souls character in Smash, it would almost certainly be someone else.

Want: 40%. It would be easy for me to accept him in the roster compared to other suggestions that I find incredibly stupid, like Master Chief and Doomguy, but it wouldn't be as exciting as anyone who actually deserves to be in the game, like Dante or Sora (speaking as someone who hates both Devil May Cry and Kingdom Hearts, so I'm not speaking from bias). And, again, if we're talking Dark Souls, I'd much rather see Solaire or Artorias or something.

 

[StormC]

Chance: 20%. The fact that he debuted on a classic NES game gives him a modicum of a chance alone, but not only do we already have a couple of ninjas in Smash, we also already have a character named "Ryu," which kinda complicates things. I get that we already have two playable characters named "Roy," but I think that's slightly different, because the other Roy is an alternate skin of the default Bowser Jr. There's no getting around having two Ryus.

In Dead Or Alive he is referred to as Hayabusa.

 

[Deleted member]

but not only do we already have a couple of ninjas in Smash, we also already have a character named "Ryu," which kinda complicates things. I get that we already have two playable characters named "Roy," but I think that's slightly different, because the other Roy is an alternate skin of the default Bowser Jr. There's no getting around having two Ryus.

More often than not, he gets called by Hayabusa than he does Ryu, so having the same name as the other Ryu would be a non-issue.

 

[Vrbtm]

In Dead Or Alive he is referred to as Hayabusa.

More often than not, he gets called by Hayabusa than he does Ryu, so having the same name as the other Ryu would be a non-issue.

Fair enough. I can't say this changes my opinion very much, though.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Ryu Hayabusa
Want: 100%. He's my #1 most wanted character atm.

Chance: 50%. Tecmo Koei deserves a rep. They worked with Nintendo recently on Hyrule Warriors. Ninja Gaiden was a big franchise on the NES. Was a big franchise again in the more modern gaming era. And continues to be relevant through DOA, which makes him a rep for TWO franchises.

3:Ninja Gaiden is the biggest franchise koei tecmo is know for(aside from dead or alive)

Pretty sure their biggest franchise is Dynasty Warriors.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Pretty sure their biggest franchise is Dynasty Warriors.

oh yeah that, I forgot about that franchise for a while.

 

[chocolatejr9]

oh yeah that, I forgot about that franchise for a while.

To be fair, a lot of people have forgotten that, too.

 

[Sid-cada]

Ryu Hayastuba

Chance - 40% - About as high as I'm willing to go for a character from a company that doesn't already have a playable character. Some of this is mitigated because of Fatal Frame, though. As far as classic NES all-stars go, he's probably one of the last ones to exist. He's certainly a strong contender, with the only difficulty being that he wan't quite as highly demanded as some others and maybe getting the company on board. Otherwise, I think he is in a fairly good spot.

Want - 75% - I can respect his inclusion, for his legacy. There aren't many third parties that I feel meet the criteria, so I like him for that alone.


The Chosen Undead

Chance - 0.5% - The chosen undead is very difficult to get in. He's all about a slow, methodical approach to combat with giant swings of weapons. You know what other series has a similar combat that would probably get more people interested that's technically already in the game? A Monster Hunter.

Want - 35% - I recognize how important Dark Souls is, but I just find the character not very appealing. I don't think he would make an interesting fighter.


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[zeonie888]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: Unchanged from 1%
I still don't see him having a shot of getting in.

Want: Changed from 1% to 50%
Although I don't have an attachment to him I wouldn't mind if he got in.

Abstaining from The Chosen Undead

Nominations
Cadence x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Two games of brutal difficulty. One that was really hard back in the day and never let up to the very end, and another that seems to have taken the torch as the Crash Bandicoot of... whatever it is Dark Souls is, I dunno, never played, don't watch much of it.

Ryu Chance: I'll be nice. He's got a 60% coming his way. The guy's iconic, his games have a strong legacy behind them, and his irrelevancy hasn't been very bad for a while either. I think he can aesthetically stick out from pretty much anybody else. Sure he doesn't have leaks backing him anymore, but that's not a very good reason to ignore his credentials. He's also got moves to pull from a bunch of games, and those bunches of games are also spread out across multiple consoles, so while he's big in the Nintendo fandom, non-Nintendo fans know him too. And, of course, Koei-Tecmo is already involved with Ultimate without having him in anywhere. Though, if we see Squeenix Mii Costumes and Microsoft Mii Costumes from Hero and Banjo, he might be in trouble.

Ryu Want: If the NES game is anything to go by, he comes from a very hard, but very fun and very good series, so I think he'd be pretty great. He's a neat pick. 50%.

Chosen Undead Chance: Eh, 30%. Chosen also comes from a very popular and notable series, but the thing is, it doesn’t have the general popularity of Tekken, nor the Smash fan demand of Tales. It’s a series with an honest chance, and nothing exceptionally wrong, but Dark Souls seems to be stuck in a rock and a hard place.

CU Want: I’ll just abstain for fairness sake. After all, this is a character totally new to me aside from curious glances of them in game, and what a game looks like does not very well represent how it plays. It might be the one to challenge Arle. It might also be a no-go once I have hands-on experience. Who knows?

Shantae will see another inflated score, 18.63%. Layton is the last hope of puzzle games but I dunno if I think he’s going to do well... 14.29%.

More Bosses x 5.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance: 45%

He's no doubt one of the likeliest picks for DLC. Koei Tecmo has a chummy relationship with Nintendo and helps develop games for them and is a long running series since the NES. Thing is though is that I have a feeling the last two characters are from Namco and Capcom(and this was before Mii Costume Theory came about since April). And this will only increase if Mii Costume Wave 2 only has SE costumes. But right now he's got a good chance.

Want: 85%

Why not? Especially if his modern black garb is in, mainly because I prefer that design much more than the NES one to be honest.

Chosen Undead

Chance: 10%

While Dark Souls would be a darkhorse pick, I firmly believe that Tales Of will be the 2nd Namco rep. That and I don't think customizable 3rd party characters will get in...... yet.

Want: 20%

Ehh I don't have any real attachment to Dark Souls. And I'm not partial to guest Custom Characters.

Predictions:

Shantae and the Grasped Windows: 2.66%
Layton: 17.66%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x10

 

[DaUsername]

The Cooler Ryu
Chance: 55%
Ryu doesn't really have anything big going against him. He's a somewhat popular character from an unrepresented company who would be a good fit for Smash. I'm kinda surprised we haven't gotten a Tecmo character yet.
Want: 70%
I think Ninja Gaiden is a pretty cool guy. He definitely deserves to be in Smash.

Dark Souls Guy (or Girl?)
Chance: 20%
Dark Souls is a pretty big franchise, and another Namco character seems pretty likely, but I'm still not completely sure about this one. A Tekken or Tales character are also pretty likely. We could even get a different Dark Souls character, like that dude who got the amiibo.
Want: 1%
I just don't really care about Dark Souls. There's a lot more interesting franchises to choose from.

Shantae prediction: 5%
Layton prediction: 20%
Noms: Another western character x5

 

[Insomneko]

Ryu Hayabusa
Chance: 55%
Want: 50%

I think Ryu could happen, as Koei Tecmo is a rather big third party, and already on board with an Assist Trophy. I think Hayabusa also has the leg up on other Tecmo characters such as Kasumi from Dead or Alive because of his Nintendo history. However, Ninja Gaiden hasn't seen a new main series release since 2012. I also believe Ryu would be a base roster pick along the lines of Mega Man and Simon Belmont, as Ninja Gaiden is more well-known for its older entries like Mega Man and Castlevania. Personally, I'm entirely neutral.

Chosen Undead

Chance: 30%
Want: 51%

Chosen Undead's an odd case, I think of the Souls characters I know of he's the main candidate, certainly more than Artorias or Solaire. I think Bamco is really up for a new character, but I think Lloyd would inch him out, just a feeling. Personally I believe Souls to be very deserving and would be open to anyone from the series.

 

[MrElectroG64]

Ryu Hayabusa: 20%
I just don’t see it. His series is practically forgotten at this point and gets next to no discussion. The only reason Ryu is being brought up at all for smash is because he was in a leak once. Now, he DOES have a good series with it’s amount of fans, but was anyone really asking for this before the leak? Did anyone even remember him enough to even consider him a possibility before now? Well, no.

Chosen Undead: 70%
Dark Souls is a huge series. It is bursting at the seams with fans and has garner a LOT of attention from all kinds of people. The franchise has truly revolutionized the video game medium as we know it and is showered with praise. I’ve also seen a lot of support for the Chosen Undead as well. Sakurai loves the series and has talked about it on multiple occasions, which means it’s on his mind, AND the franchise has now dipped into nintendo consoles with DS1 remastered and DS2 on its way to switch. The franchise itself has more than earned it’s spot in smash, especially over any other Namco franchise not in the game yet.
Now, as for the Chosen Undead himself, he is the protagonist of the DS series and the one with the most gameplay potential, with Artorias with a close second, however if anyone honestly thinks a DS rep SHOULDN’T be the Chosen Undead (aka: solaire and even artorias, even if he’d be awesome), you’re delusional. I’ve seen a lot of people say that solaire should be the DS rep, but you can tell those people have never actually played the game, considering you barely ever even see him in the games and when you do it’s either him just standing there like any other random NPC, or being a glorified assist trophy. the Chosen Undead also edges out solaire greatly by his vaste amount of weapons and abilities, of which Solaire only has one weapon type and a very limited amount of abilities. No matter which way you cut it, the Chosen Undead is the better more logical choice. Besides, it’s not like you can’t have Solaire’s armor as an alt anyways.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain on both. I don't know enough about Ryu or the Undead to say if they could work in Smash, or if they are even in contention.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[Ornl]

A reminder to prepare your next re-rating.

Day 309: Shantae and Professor Layton (Smaller Niche franchises day)
Day 310: Edelgard, Dmitri, Claude, and Blyeth (Three Houses Day)
Day 311: Melmetal and Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon (Gen 8/Game I no longer am going to buy day)
Day 312: Concept: Tekken Rep and Concept: SNK Rep (Fighting Games Day)
Day 313: Agumon and Jibanyan (Monster Catcher Day)
Day 314: Crash and Spyro (Activision Day)
Day 315: Maxwell and Hollow Knight (Smaller niche stuff day 2)

Shantae - 7.17% Chance, 48.96% Want
Professor Layton - 32.96% Chance, 67.19% Want
Fire Emblem Three Houses rep - 14.81% Chance, 26.68% Want
Edelgard - 25.85% Chance, 25.66% Want
Melmetal - 11.48% Chance, 23.15% Want
Gen 8 Pokémon - 10.49% Chance, 16.16% Want
Heihachi Mishima - 7.82% Chance, 24.82% Want
SNK rep - 25.11% Chance, 58.31% Want
Jibanyan - 16.97% Chance, 15.00% Want
Crash Bandicoot (old rating, rerated) - 27.36% Chance, 57.50% Want
Crash Bandicoot - 51.80% Chance, 77.95% Want
Maxwell - 5.50% Chance, 63.50% Want
Hollow Knight - 5.87% Chance, 41.67% Want

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstaining from Chosen Undead, even though I insisted it was on the fixed schedule I want to wait until I finish Dark Souls to give a proper rating.

As for Ryu

45% Chance

One of the last few NES all stars here. There really are not that many NES franchises that are at the level of iconicness that Ninja Gaiden is at. Koei Tecmo is also one of the biggest third parties that are out there that have not hopped onto Smash, and easily one of the biggest Japanese ones. Ryu himself has some problems, namely the fact that Ninja Gaiden is not as active as it used to be. His resume lines up pretty well.

That being said, FP2 is still not a guarantee. As confident as I am in a second pass, until it is confirmed I am gonna be cautiously optimistic. Even then, there are only three characters I would rate above a 50% (Lloyd, RE, Crash). He easily is the most likely outside of those.

80% Want

He has a strong legacy and a cool design. I like fast characters so I can see him slotting into my roster of secondaries. It just is that I have no real strong attachment to him. Do him well enough though and I am sold.

Protoman x 5

Day over. Today we will be rating Shantae and Professor Layton. Both got strong pushes for the ballot, but how will they look today? Tomorrow instead of focusing on the past, we shall focus on the future. A future about nine days away. Predict Blyeth, Edelgard, Dmitri, and Claude for tomorrow.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Shantae
Chance: 60%
Highly requested character, and has a strong history with Nintendo. Though being in the game already may lower her chances, she's not completely impossible.

Want: 100%
I think she'd be a great fit. Can't think of a single reason I wouldn't want her.

Professor Layton
Chance: 70%
Again, has a strong history with Nintendo and is a icon of the DS. Would bring an interesting moveset, is an unrepresented 3rd party, and has been clamored for a while.

Want: 100%
Again, can't think a single reason I wouldn't want him in. Would be an amazing choice.

 

[Shinuto]

Shantae
Chance: 50% I think at this point she's either in or not, I don't think spirits deconfirm and I hate to go on law of averages here but it just seems to right to expect A female DLC character and Shantae to me is he most likely at this point. She's highly requested, she's been steadily gaining fans in Japan and that new OP for her newest game has been spreading like wildfire.

Want 101% literally my most wanted.

Professor Layton
Chance 40% He's got some competition with the also Level-5 Jibanyan who's super popular in Japan and has decent following in America, but I think Layton is well enough demanded puzzle character that definitely has potential.

Want: 75% I love the couple of games from his series I have so far, and I think he'd be great.

 

[Vrbtm]

Shantae
0% Chance
In spite of everything she has going for her (which is quite a bit, I have to concede), she does already have a Spirit, so none of it matters to me.
65% Want
Just because I think Spirits deconfirm characters doesn't mean I wouldn't love to be wrong. I've never played any of her games, but I still think she seems like a pretty good fit for Smash, even if her design is a little risque (though, of course, that didn't stop Bayonetta... unfortunately). She's also decently popular and would make a lot of people happy, which is cool. I'd definitely be okay with her.

Professor Layton
5% Chance
Yeah, I really don't see it happening. Only a small fraction of people would be remotely hype for him, and everyone else would be very confused or extremely salty that someone cooler and more deserving didn't get in instead. I have to concede that his lack of Spirit presence in the game does give him a slight boost, but I think even Sakurai has to know that nobody really wants this guy except for the 5 people who played his games. No disrespect, just how I feel.
0% Want
This would be such a lame pick, akin to putting Phoenix Wright in Ultimate Marvel vs. Capcom 3. I have a fundamental problem with putting characters who are not known for fighting into fighting games. I don't find it funny, I don't find it cute, and I certainly don't find it hype. I've never played a Professor Layton game, either, but I can assure you that no amount of them would ever change my mind on this. He's Mii Costume material at best.

Yes, I am fun at parties.

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstaining on Layton.
Shantae
Chance: 5%: I don't think so on this one. she had no new game when the pass was chosen, and wasn't really in the spotlight. and Sans and shovel Knight dwarf her in polls. Also, the Knight exists. Could happen, but I will press F to doubt.
Want:50%: I am pretty mixed on this one. On one hand, she has been around a while and is on a lot of Nintendo consoles. On the other though, Shovel Knight, Sans, and the Knight are just from more interesting games that I love. (Seriously, all three are in my top 3 indie games.) Plus honestly I would prefer Dixie or Impa or Lyn for a female character.
Nominations:
Specter Knight x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Shantae

Chance 0 - She's a spirit and feels like a major throwing her fan a bone spirit at that. I dont think we're getting any indie reps as DLC, which is a little disappointing because there's a few I'd like to see.

Want 10 - Not very interested in Shantae at all. Never found the games to look that interesting and there are other indie reps I'd much rather have

Prof Layton

Chance 10 - He doesn't really feel popular enough to warrant getting in to DLC. He and Phoenix Wright feel pretty similar and Phoenix seems to be the one people want more. Maybe its just the bubble I'm living in though. IDK

Want 40 - I'd be slightly disappointed to see him get in over Phoenix, who is in my top 3 most wanted, but I'd for sure at least want to see how he plays and what his moveset is. Non fighters becoming fighters usually have pretty fun and unique movesets in Smash so that would probably win me over even if I wouldn't go crazy over him

Predictions
Claude - 0.3
Edelgard - 5.2
Byleth - 3.3
Dmitri - 1.2

Noms
Kratos x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Shantae:
Chance: 0%-Alright, ignoring whatever possibilities of Geno actually becoming a full playable character due to rumour shenanigans (it's not like they have that many legs to stand on), I stand when I say I don't expect spirits to become playable, that's a death sentence to me. Plus, let's think about this: the furthest an indie character has gone in Smash is Shovel Knight, and what he got was an Assist Trophy and a bunch of spirits, Shantae has like two spirits in the game (didn't keep a track on them outside of her and Risky Boots) only; if an indie character with a giant amount of demand like the knight didn't make it, then I don't expect a less popular one to be the exception.
Want: 0%-She's one of those few characters I'm actively against. I don't find her interesting, not even as a shape-shifter, and for the matter being, I don't think she has any real history going for her. She owes her popularity to Wii U/Switch releases, not to the GBC games.

Professor Layton:
Chance: 20%-In other times, I would've given him a far bigger score. But due to Layton's series not being quite as popular when you compare it to Yo-Kai Watch, which has been turned into Level-5 flagship franchise (which is going downhill), I have little reasons to see him coming. Granted, since he's having releases on Switch, so he's not "irrelevant".
Want: 30%-Pretty neutral. I can't help but think he's gonna be quite similar to UMvC3's Phoenix Wright in playstyle, with some obvious differences. He's also a swordsman, but I doubt Sakurai will want to include that into his moveset if he ever made it into Smash.

Predictions:
Byleth: 22.39%
Edelgard: 18.78%
Claude: 1.13%
Dmitri: 1.13%
Gave the latter two the same score because I doubt anyone cares or expects them to appear. As for Byleth and Edelgard, it's gonna be quite a heated up day. Some people are gonna play Devil's advocate on them while others (myself including) will throw their negativity at them.

 

[ProtoTwi]

Shantae.

Chance. I'm gonna say 50 percent. only because I think trying to predict stuff like likelihood of a singular character inclusions is dumb because the "rules" that dictate character inclusions change with just about every character inclusion. with goalposts that move so fast its dumb to really try.

That being said, I wouldn't ever write her off, Shes been growing in popularity over the years (looking at Shantae 5 OP), She was at least popular enough to make it in as a spirit so that shows something (I don't think any character is every fully deconfirmed due to the nature of modern gaming. Anything can be updated nowadays)

You cant deny that within the core smash community she is known and wanted character, On this very forum her thread is the 3rd ranked in views/replies only behind Geno and Issac in the newcomer speculation area, if you look at just about any fan poll shes always a strong contender.

Want is 100%, I think shes a perfect fit, unique character. fun potential.
i would die happy if she made it in.



Layton, i got nothing, not against him or anything. just never played his games.

 

[OrpheusTelos]

Professor Layton and the Missing Smash Invitation

Chance: 30%

Layton has quite a few things going for him, but I'm hesitant to say he has anything greater than a below average chance just because of how niche he is compared to other potential candidates. He had a pretty strong support base during the ballot, his games are popular even among casual crowds, and the Layton series is a staple of the DS's library. The dude's basically an honorary Nintendo character at this point and has enough going for him to at least give him a slim chance of joining the roster. However, the big thing holding him back is that he's kind of niche. Don't get me wrong, his series isn't obscure in the slightest and I'm sure his reveal would get quite a few people excited, but he doesn't seem like one of the big hype-generating characters Nintendo has been going for in the Fighters Pass.

Want: 100%

I would be so freaking happy if Layton made it in. He'd be the first true puzzle game representative that isn't Dr. Mario, representing one of the most popular genres among casual gamers. Aside from puzzles, he's shown that he knows how to fight throughout the series, giving him plenty to work with for a moveset. That, and Layton is just a great character who would bring a lot of charm into Smash. My only thing with Layton is that Phoenix Wright better be coming with him. Maybe it's just because of that crossover, but the two compliment each other way too well and I'd be kinda sad if we got one but not the other. Not a huge deal breaker, but god it would be hype if we got them both in the same game again.

I swear to god if any of y'all unironically rate her chances 100% because of that window thing...

Chance: 1%

Yeah I'm still sticking to the whole Spirits deconfirming thing. Her spirit is basically just a glorified consolation prize for not making it into the roster and no amount of window theories are ever going to change that.

Want: 5%

I can't really bring myself to say I'd be furious with any character addition, but... god I can't think of many other characters I'd be less interested in than Shantae. I honestly don't get the appeal of the character at all and I find the games themselves to be incredibly mediocre. And besides her seniority, how much of an impact did Shantae really leave on indie gaming? I usually try to avoid the "more deserving" argument, but for a series not as ubiquitous to indie gaming as Shovel Knight, not as influential to the medium as Cave Story, or as ingrained in the public conscious as Undertale, I'd be pretty freaking upset if she got in before any other indie rep with more clout. It also doesn't help that I've had some bad experiences with Shantae fans during the Smash 4 ballot, but I'm willing to admit that that's personal bias on my part and that it doesn't represent Shantae's fanbase as a whole. I'm not going to demand a refund for the fighters pass if she somehow does make it in, but as someone who loves indie games and wants to see them represented in Smash, I'd be disappointed if they chose to represent Shantae over literally any other game that better encompass the appeal of indies.

Predictions (the Fire Emblem paranoia will never die, will it?):
Byleth: 16%
Edgelord: 19%
Claude: 1%
Dimitri: 1%

Nominations: Gex x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

"Don't worry guys, here's how Shantae can still win"
Chance: 0%
They have already acknowledged her existence through a Spirit. Why would she be anything more? I've already gone over how being a Spirit is a death sentence if you're a third-party. And atleast the likes of Geno and Rayman have been requested for way longer and are owned by bigger studios. Why would Shantae get in as a supposed indie rep when Shovel Knight (whose single game made much more of a splash than any of Shantae's) only got to be an Assist at most? Her games don't sell that well and lacks Japanese popularity. (I've heard it's growing but it's likely too late for that now and I doubt it would be enough anyway) Not to mention all the competition for the last two spots, including a certain indie rpg the Shantae series wishes it would ever be as popular as. Also, no Shantae 5 won't help her out that much and the "Smash window" likely means jack. No amount of wishes could have Shantae be in the fighter pass still.

Want: 0%
I have never played a Shantae game and there are other potential Indie characters I'd much rather have, such as the Hollow Knight or an Undertale rep. Heck, if I had the choice to upgrade either her or Shovel Knight, I'd go for shovelry anyday.

And again, I don't usually mention character's supportbases but why do Shantae fans always seem like the fanbase least accepting of their character's deconfirmation? Sounds hypocritical being a Dee supporter but atleast we acknowledge our character's pretty unlikely at the moment, even if some of us haven't totally lost hope, besides we also don't point at very minor stuff such as a window vaguely resembling the Smash logo and see it as a confirmation.

I have nothing to say on Layton atm, abstaining

Byleth: 6.43%
Edelgard: 5.12%
Dimitri: 0.74%
Claude: 0.57%
Adeline x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Abstaining on Prof. Layton.

Shantae

Chance: oof
Yeah... pretty much everything I want to say about the half-genie has already been said. Shantae's already a spirit, and in the day and age of DLC, that's basically a death sentence. Moving on.

Want: 50%
She's fine, I guess? I mean, she is my third choice for an Indie rep, behind Shovel Knight and Reimu Hakurei in second and first respectively, and I can definitely see the basis for wanting her in.

Speaking of the red-and-white miko...

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

 

[Curious Villager]

Abstaining on Shantae

Professor Layton

Chance: 50%
Perhaps a tad too generous, maybe, however, I think Level-5 in general has a very good shot at getting a character as DLC. Nintendo and Level-5 have had a very healthy history with each other ever since the DS era and their partnership seems to be as strong as ever as the company is moving over to support their content to the Switch. With Shigeru Miyamoto, Satoru Shibata and the late Satoru Iwata being fans and having praised the Layton series for its contributions for bringing in a wider audience to the DS along with Animal Crossing. Even Sakurai himself seems to be good friends with Level-5's CEO Akihiro Hino, having crossed path's several times. keeping in close contact and up to date with each other over Twitter and even having brought up the idea of seeing Layton being included into Smash one day. With Hino stating that he'd be happy to give Sakurai full control over how Layton is represented in Smash. Which is something Sakurai generally tends to look for with third party characters.

The Layton series is also far from niche, having sold over 17 million copies within the span of 11 years, being one of the highest selling third party game series on the DS during its whole life cycle, as well as expanding further onto other media such as a movie, manga's, novels and now also an anime series. Layton is without a doubt a huge icon of the DS era and still going to this day.

If Nintendo was truly the one deciding on which characters to include for DLC, then I have no doubt that they have at the very least considered including a Level-5 character into Smash Ultimate. Especially if their still referring to the ballot, to which I am fairly sure that there was at least a good amount of demand for a Level-5 character to join the ranks.

Layton's only real competition being the possibility that Sakurai might potentially include Jibanyan from Yokai Watch over the prof, who is also a very popular request from Level-5. However, since Sakurai stated during Cloud's inclusion that it may be only natural to include the character that enjoys more worldwide popularity. This might give Layton a bit more of an edge over Jibanyan as the Layton series is overall a much more popular franchise worldwide over Yokai Watch, which its popularity has mainly remained within Japan. So it depends more on whether he'd go for the character that is mainly popular in Japan or the one that is more popular globally.

Want: 100%
Layton is my personal most wanted character so I'd be fully ecstatic to see him be included into Smash Ultimate. There is a lot that can be done with the Prof that we haven't seen yet in Smash. Being that he's a character from a genre that has rarely been much explored in Smash. His series has also been a huge favourite of mine and has resonated with me a lot ever since the first game. It also has a great soundtrack that you don't really see a lot in Smash which would offer up a fresh new take for the series as well.


Nomination: Reimu x5

 

[StormC]

Should be going to bed but I saw a new rating and couldn't help myself:

Shantae

Chance: 0%. Like I said with Rayman, while I believe Spirits deconfirm, I believe it double deconfirms for third parties who had to be licensed out for them. I believe Shantae's Spirit is Sakurai's way of acknowledging the ballot votes while not making her playable. I think it will be a long time before we see an indie character in Smash, especially one as relatively obscure as Shantae. Even if Spirits weren't a thing I just don't think she would ever cross Sakurai's mind as a serious candidate. This is something I've talked about before, but Smash characters aren't handed out like candy. They cost millions of dollars and take hundreds if not thousands of manhours to bring to life. Shantae just doesn't really have enough going for her in that regard compared to so many other characters. She has a vocal online fanbase and that's kinda it.

Want: 10%. Not a big fan of getting indies in Smash and Shantae's legacy isn't especially impressive, but I can't deny she could have a fun moveset. I'm not really sure Smash needs a skimpy teenage girl on its roster though, but that's another topic.

Professor Layton

Chance: 25%. Honestly... Layton is almost never brought up, but I kinda think, he's being slept on a bit? He isn't SUPER likely but this is a pretty generous score for two character spots being left. Basically a 1/4 chance he is one of the two characters, if you think about it. Level 5 is the biggest Japanese company to not yet be in Smash and the Layton series has been pretty popular, with a legacy going over a decade. His design is pretty iconic and recognizable as well, at least comparable to Joker I feel. Main things holding him back is Sakurai might not be able to come up with a fitting moveset for him and fan demand is not especially large. And the threat of Namco and Capcom looms... still, making this post, his chances are a bit better than I gave him credit for.

Want: 50%. No connection to the series or character, but I'd be pretty happy for his fans, and he would definitely stand out in terms of not just the Fighters Pass characters, but in general with his design and genre of series. He'd be a somewhat left field choice but also a perfectly reasonable one so that would be fun from a speculation standpoint as well, I feel like Layton would be a wildcard but afterwards everyone would go "yeah that makes sense." Again, writing this up I'd realize how perfectly fine I'd be if he was on the Pass, so maybe things will turn out just yet.

 

[Matthjass]

Shantae : I didn't play her games so I'm abstaining.

Professor Layton

Chances : 60%

The gentleman has a lot of arguments for his inclusion : he appeared in 8 games on the DS and 3DS and is the main character of most of them, has a strong relation with Nintendo and is an icon of Level-5, which is still not represented in Smash at all. However, there are two big obstacles that could prevent him from joining the roster : his lack of popularity as a guest character and his lack of new games nowadays.

Want : 100%

Layton is one of my favorite video game characters of all time, so seeing him joining the Smash family would be awesome. In addition to an original moveset based on puzzles, he could bring a lot of interesting stuff from his franchise : spirits, musics, stages... Not to mention a gorgeous trailer with the same artstyle as the cutscenes in the series.

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Shantae

Spoiler

Professor Layton

Spoiler

----------

"B-b-but, the lighthouse window looks like the Smash logo!!!!!!!!!!!!"

Chance: 1%
Matt Bozon - the creator/director of the Shantae series - was pushing for people to still try and get Shantae playable around the time Sakurai tweeted that the DLC lineup had already been finished. That pretty much says right there that she won't be playable for this DLC wave and all they could get was the spirit, especially when we have reason to believe that Nintendo/Sakurai most likely decided on who would be DLC long before that November tweet. Also like I said before I don't see us getting a spirit character (or any indie character for the matter) for this wave.

And to address the transforming elephant in the room, the window in the new Shantae trailer resembling the Smash logo means next to nothing. The circle window with a cross in it has always been in the Shantae series ever since the first game on GBC. Also the window had a similar crooked design in Half Genie Hero. In the spoiler below is official art of the lighthouse created way before the Shantae for Smash hype train really started in late 2014. Notice how the horizontal piece of wood isn't in the center of the circle, which also shows up like that in the final product and is similar to the one in the new trailer.

Spoiler

So at worst it's just fans overreacting at a small unintentional thing as usual. At best it was intentional... but all that it would show is that WayForward wants Shantae in Smash... which we already know they do. Just because your game references Smash doesn't mean you're automatically getting in.

I guarantee people are still gonna give her chance scores as high as 70% just because of this window nonsense though.

Want: 100%
You'd think from my writeup above that I hate Shantae or something, but I don't in the slightest. The Shantae titles are probably my favorite indie games after Cave Story. I still remember reading up on Risky's Revenge in Nintendo Power in 2009/2010 and the excitement of being able to play it once I got a 3DS. The Shantae games have great visuals, amazing music, and overall are some of the finest modern Metroidvania games around. Shantae herself is among one of my most wanted and she has a ton of potential with both her genie powers and pirate abilities from Pirate's Curse.

-----

Professor Layton

Chance: 30%
Like Ace Attorney, Professor Layton is a series that is almost exclusively on Nintendo systems. The series has gotten critical praise from just about everyone and Level-5 (the company behind the games) are very Nintendo friendly. Yokai Watch being a big hit in Japan for a while may mean that Nintendo has been paying more attention to Level-5. If we were to get a Level-5 rep it'd definitely be either Jibanyan or Layton. Between the two, I think Layton would be more likely since he seems to have more broad international appeal whereas Jibanyan's popularity is almost exclusively in Japan (and even there he hasn't been doing as good as he used to). Not to say Jibanyan can't happen (I'll talk more about him when we rate him in a few days), but Layton just seems like a safer pick.

Want: Abstain
Yet another big series that I want to get into first before I determine whether or not I want a character from it. Because of that I'm gonna sit this rating out. I can say right now that I wouldn't be against his inclusion at all though.

----------

Fire Emblem chance predictions:

Edelgard: 12.72%
Dimitri: 3.42%
Claude: 2.89%
Byleth: 9.83%

I don't see any of them happening tbh though I'll be interested to see all their want scores. Also there is no way Dimitri or Claude are getting in before Edelgard or Byleth.

----------

Nominations:
Concept: Rockstar Games rep x5

 

[zferolie]

Shantae:

Chance: 20%

I know everyone belives Spirits Deconfirm, but after seeing fan theory after fan theory being smashed by Sakurai, I just cannot beleive any fan theories anymore. till the word of god(sakurai, nintendo, wayfoward) outright say spirits are not becoming DLC, then I still think there is a chance.

That being said, while I love shantae, I still think her chances are low. not impossible, just low. with 2 more slots it all comes down to if an indie is getting in or not. Of the indies left(Shovel sadly isn't happening due to AT not becoming playable in the same game, at least not this first DLC only thoery I feel has any merit due to sakurai outright saying stuff like that), I feel like there are 2 high contenders for an Indie rep Shantae has to fight: Reimu from Touhou, and Knight/Hornet from Hollow Knight. Reimu because Touhou is the defacto Indie/Doujin game of japan, spaning YEARS and hundreds of fan games. Its even getting games on the switch now. Knight/Hornet due to Nintendo really pushing that game hard. Even Cadance is close to Shantae now since she has a game with a nintendo character.

Shantae does have some big points, her longevity, Wayforward being so influencal/important for the indie scene(how many times have they helped out indie games and how many games have they made as a company), and being quite popular. You guys say she is niche, but just look how much news she gets just for a opening trailer, and she is constantly places high on fan polls on many sites. So yeah, she has a chance, just not getting myself super hyped.

Also yes Window theory is insane, and is most likely just a smash nod. Yes it was that way in HGH too but there I think it was a smash nod too. pre HGH and any smash hype the window was normal crossed.

Want: 100%

Yeah she is my most wanted character. Love her games, love her personality, love her gameplay she could bring, we need another female in the game since no DLC females yet, love her VA, and love wayforward. I really feel Wayforward has done so much for western game devs that they deserve a slot in the game.


Gonna Abstain from Layton as i really haven't played his games. He does look cool and I know his games are good. Personally I would rather have his daughter then him.

EDIT: Forgot my Nom. Give it to Cadance

 

[GoodGrief741]

Half-Tilted Window

Chance: 0%
When a developer asks their fans to campaign for a character after DLC has been decided, that's a disconfirmation. Plus her Spirit. And honestly, they made Shovel Knight an AT, who do you think the Smash team prioritizes?

Want: 51%
Right in the middle. I've played a couple of Shantae games (the old ones though, not the ones that matter - though I always meant to play Half-Genie Hero, and will probably get the fifth one if it's good). So while I'm not what you'd call a fan, I respect the games for their charm, style, and personality. That said, in the grand scheme of gaming history, they're struggling to be more than just a few well-received titles. I always figured there's only five indie games that could get a character in Smash: Cave Story and Touhou for basically getting the whole thing rolling and being landmarks in their genre, Shovel Knight for causing the explosion of indie games and being a gaming classic, Undertale for being an instant classic with a huge cultural footprint, and Shantae for... having a big fanbase. So she kind of lags behind in credentials, but at least she has worldwide popularity to her name (Rayman wishes he had that).

So I'm neutral on her. I don't have a horse in the indie race, and while she has some minimal overlap with some of my most wanted (Dixie Kong and Prince Sable) I don't think it's enough to actually hurt their chances. If she gets in, good, I like her and her fans will be happy. If she doesn't, it's not really a glaring omission.

That extra 1% is because, while I get that her creator is a Smash fan, honestly the incessant campaigning reeks of desperation and I'm tired of it, so if her getting in stops it then so be it.

I think he discovered Jupiter's Moon or something?

Chance: 50%
To me Layton is a coin flip. He's all pros and no cons, but at the same time nothing's point to his inclusion. He either happens or he doesn't.

Layton is the iconic protagonist of the Professor Layton franchise, a flagship series of the DS family of systems. It's huge, and one of the most iconic visual novels and puzzle games, skillfully combining both genres into something fully unique. It's the top rep for Level-5, as beyond the mascot of the dying Yo-Kai Watch franchise there's not a lot of competition, and what's there is pretty weak.

Layton has pretty big demand, and had it in the Smash 4 era (AKA the Ballot times). He's popular worldwide, and enjoys a particular fondness in his home territory of Europe (which, let's not forget, is the territory that allegedly won Bayonetta the Ballot). Apparently the series is also pretty popular with women - do with that info as you will. So Layton has:
• Iconic factor
• Gaming history factor
• Basically a Nintendo character factor
• Influential in its genre factor
• Fan demand factor
• Worldwide popularity factor
• New audience factor
• No competition factor

Will he happen? I don't know, but the facts are pointing towards 'Why not?'.

Want: 100%
Do I want him to happen? That's no puzzle.

The Layton games are some of my favorites. There's many aspects that draw you in. The mysterious yet nostalgic British atmosphere. The amazing music. The mind-bending puzzles. And of course, the plots and characters. Of the many quirky characters, the Professor stands out. Amongst gaming protagonists, who are usually cute, or cool, or violent, or goofy, Layton stands out because he is polite, charming, calm, and reasoning. He's Sherlock Holmes without any of the jerk. He's one of my most wanted characters and it would be a dream to see him join Smash.

Noms: Kyle Hyde X5

Predictions: Edelgard/Byleth 9%
The other two guys 4%

 

[Calamitas]

Zero Suit Shantae

Chance: 15%
Others have said it already, but again: She's a prominent third-party Spirit, which is essentially a death sentence. I still don't think that Spirits deconfirm in general, but with her being third-party and featured in WoL, I just don't see it.
Want: 15%
I have zero connection to her franchise (all I really have to go on are SomeCallMeJohnny's reviews of her games), and what I've seen from it doesn't look super appealing to me. Still, there's worse third-party DLC suggestions being thrown around, and I wouldn't mind her making it in.

Doctor Who Professor What

Chance: 40%
I'll just go with other people's estimation on the matter. Big Japanese game developer, strong connection with Nintendo, nothing else from that company in Smash yet. Still, I'm keeping the score a bit lower, since I just have a gut feeling that his chances aren't that terribly high.
Want: 35%
I played the first game in the series, which I enjoyed a fair bit, even if it didn't blow me away. I'm having admittedly a bit of hard time seeing how he could play, but I'm certain that Sakurai and his team could come up with something interesting. And as long as that "something" isn't overly gimmicky, I'm down. Still far from my most wanted newcomer, though.

Nominating Amaterasu x2 and the concept of "At least one fighter in the Fighter's Pass is first/second-party" x3. (I hope that latter is okay to nominate? I admittedly still don't entirely get the rules surrounding nominations here)

 

[3BitSaurus]

Shantae
Chance: 0%
Spirit. Nuff said. Nah, jk, I need two sentences to justify this entry. To echo what others have said, her inclusion as a Spirit seems like a massive bone-throw to fans. In fact, as far as I know, her and Risky Boots' Spirits are the only third-party Spirits that don't have any other form of content in Ultimate (aside from the indie games exclusive to Nintendo). And the window thing seems kinda deliberate, but it looks more like a quirky, funny way of acknowledging she's in Smash in some form.

Plus, if the devs were to actually tease her as a playable character... hoo boy, better get ready for the Nintendo Ninjas. There's a reason nobody does that.

Want: 40%
Only played Risky's Revenge and Pirate's Curse, but Shantae has a lot of potential. That said, I still think indies should have their own Smash. Not because they "don't belong" or any other non-argument, but because I think there is so much worthy stuff to pull from with indies, it basically warrants a whole game.

Plus, she seemed to be one of the most popular indie picks along with Shovel Knight, so... I guess it could be interesting?

Professor Layton
Chance: 50%
Basically what GoodGrief741 said: he's a coin toss. Nothing deconfirming him, but nothing really big helping his chances either. That said, Level-5 is one of the last notable japanese companies not in Smash (though technically they helped with one of the featured Dragon Quest games) and Layton not only does have strong ties to Nintendo and is L5's most successful IP, but he would bring a different audience from the FP characters so far, which seems to be an ongoing thing. So I say he's definitely worth keeping an eye on.

Want: 40%
Gotta be honest: if we get a character from that genre, I'm hoping it's Phoenix. Yeah, I know, I'm biased. Mostly because my only contact with the Professor was PL x AA. And I still have trouble visualizing a moveset for him. That said, I'm a big sucker for non-fighting characters in my crossover fighting games (see my constant praise of Phoenix Wright in UMvC3 for reference), and Sakurai is a very creative man, so I'd be curious to see what the Prof. could pull out of his hat.

Predictions:
Dmitri and Claude: 5%
Edelgard and Byleth: 10%

Nominations:
Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[zeonie888]

Shante
Chance: 1%
I feel with her being a spirit really hurts her chances of getting in.

Want: 75%
With all that I've seen with what she has I wouldn't mind giving her a shot.

Abstaining from Professor Layton

Nominations:
Earthworm Jim x5

 

[BowserKing]

Shantae

Chance: 30%. She has been hinted quite a bit (including the familiar window). While she has a spirit, she could have a chance in the future.

Want: 100%. She would be a fun character to play, and the ability to transforms would make her unique amoung the cast. Overall, she getting in would be a surprise for the fans.

Professor Layton

Chance: 30%. So far, nothing is a disconfirmation with him, in addition to his franchise being common with Nintendo devices. However, the one major thing is the competition, but he could rise.

Want: 55% He would be a fun character to play, with a stage with possible surprise elements. It all depends on how it plays out in the end.

Noms: 2 for Black Shadow and 3 for Marx

 

[Calamitas]

Shantae

Chance: 20 to 40%. She has been hinted quite a bit (including the familiar window). While she has a spirit, she could have a chance in the future.

Want: 100%. She would be a fun character to play, and the ability to transforms would make her unique amoung the cast. Overall, she getting in would be a surprise for the fans.

Professor Layton

Chance: 20 to 40%. So far, nothing is a disconfirmation with him, in addition to his franchise being common with Nintendo devices. However, the one major thing is the competition, but he could rise.

Want: 55% He would be a fun character to play, with a stage with possible surprise elements. It all depends on how it plays out in the end.

Noms: 2 for Black Shadow and 3 for Marx

You need to give one concrete number for your rating to count. "20 to 40" won't count when the scores are tallied.

 

[Ornl]

Shantae - Chance: 0% - Want: abstain.
She has a profile similar to Banjo: ballot character, Western origin, no significant popularity in Japan, modest series, platform genre. But Banjo is already the ballot choice, and Shantae is already a Spirit.

Professor Layton - Chance: 7,5% - Want: 100% as an Assist Trophee.

Spoiler

Competition: forgotten minor characters
Professor Layton is one of those forgotten minor characters who form a sub-competition between them. He hasn’t always been a minor character, he has become so with declining sales. That's why he already has some advantage, he's one of the most important minor characters. He's also particularly recognizable by non-gamers, unlike many others! The other minor characters are the ones that don’t have many games in the series, or that don’t have a lot of sales on average IMO :
- 1st/2sd party series without Fighter (Rythm, Momotaro Dentetsu…),
- other Sega rep (Bayonetta and Joker are already Sega minor characters),
- other Konami rep (Simon is already Konami minor characters) ; Bomberman ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Capcom rep except Resident Evil, Monster Hunter and Dante ; Amaterasu ≈ Professor Layton,
- other Bamco rep except Mametchi and Tekken, including Tales and Dark Souls,
- other Squenix rep except Sora, Lara Croft and Hitman,
- Koei Tecmo rep,
- Marvelous rep,
- SNK rep,
- Indie rep,
- other Level 5 rep (sub-compétition),
- …

Competition: Level 5
Hershel Layton is one of Level 5 characters who form a sub-competition between them :
- Eight (Hero) is already a DLC Fighter created by Level 5,
- Inazuma Eleven is the most promoted by the Nintendo DREAM magazine,
- Yo-Kai Watch is becoming more popular with excellent sales, and Jibanyan competes with Pikachu gradually,
- Katrielle Layton succeeds her father in the latest Layton game.

Succes & Decline
The It’s true that the commercial and popular success of the first Layton game on NDS had been explosive in Europe. Satoru Iwata, former president of Nintendo, said the success of the game in Europe was probably due to the difference in packaging (:O ?). In Japan, Professor Layton and the Curious Village is also the second favorite game on NDS according to Famitsu readers, but half as much as Dragon Quest IX.
Even in decline, the series remained very prominent, and the average games sold is 1.9M per episode. But every game that has followed has always been less sold than the previous one. In the end, the first game sold 5.2M units, and the last game sold 0.6M units. Unfortunately, the move to the 3DS didn’t succeed the enthusiasm of the players.
Layton's future looks difficult and the series would needs Smash Bros. Nintendo could have tried to preserve his notoriety in Sm4sh, but he didn’t even give him a trophy. Now I think it’s possibly too late. While waiting for a new game, the series become adapted on Switch. This is a first step.

The real disadvantage
Layton has no definite inspiration to offer unique and different gameplay. According to Sakurai, any new character must display personality in their game. It’s important to have something only that character can do. Every character needs to have a reason to be in. The character’s individuality must be traited as its own game itself. Mii Fighters, Pac-Man and the Villager are three examples of characters that Sakurai initially decided were "unsuitable" for fighting. About, I don’t know how to give thanks to the genre puzzle/adventure in Smash Bros. To see Layton with a sword or an improvised weapon (like Peach/Dr. Mario) would be a non-creative facility. So I think he's in a bind, and that Hershel should be a good idea for a new Assist Trophee, like Bomberman.

The clue that matters to me
Professor Layton's logo is a top hat. The top hat is already used by Arsene and the representative pictogram of the Persona license.
Even without logo, Arsene is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat, and Hershel is recognizable in part because of he has disproportionate hat. It appears that the thief was faster than the detective.

Nominations: Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) 5