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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

NintenZ

Smash Legend
Joined
Apr 8, 2015
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12,411
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The Metaverse
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5343-8848-6075
Switch FC
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This will certainly be quicker than the last one

Zero and Alucard both get .01 scores from me since both are Assist Trophies, if it wasn’t for that fact then both would be the next logical steps for their respective franchises, but because of that I honestly don’t think either franchise will double-dip at all if it isn’t them, sorry.

Want: 100%
But both would be pretty sick choices, would not mind seeing their franchises double-dip for them as I find both are very unique, recognizable, and would add more variety to the game

Now onto Raiden who will be individualized

Raiden

Chances: 10%

Yeah I really don’t see it lol, just gonna get that off the bat. Lack of recent game appearances hurt him, lack of interest from Nintendo is definitely another thing against him, the fact Metal Gear in Smash is already kind of an anomaly doesn’t make me think it would double-dip, don’t see him in his Rising appearance, and don’t see him in his MGS2 appearance, but I guess it‘a not impossible which is why he gets a 10% instead of just a decimal like the other two.

Want: 70%

Raiden is pretty cool and I liked him in MGRR so I’d be down but I kinda also think Metal Gear is fine with Snake? I mean the guy sticks out like a sore thumb as is so I do feel it’d be a bit weird adding another. But overall I’d still like the inclusion I just think Metal Gear in Smash is a bit of an oddity as is.

In summary, all these are cool characters and would likely be the next logical steps for their franchises doubling up, but all have major hurdles and roadblocks that likely prevent them from getting in, so I don’t really see any of them honestly, but would be open to the idea.

Nominations
Any Xenoblade character (x20)
Kaede Akamatsu (x20)
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Alucard
Chance 30 - Giving him a small boost up from his last rating back in late April. He moves up due to Sephiroth and him being a popular character from a series already being in. He doesn't move too much though due to the volume of Castlevania stuff in the game already. Doubt a stage will be an issue but music and spirits could be. He's also already an Assist Trophy, which may or may not cause issues still for those characters. We'll see for pass number 3 but for right now I'm thinking he's not going to be playable. Should he be though then I wouldn't be shocked, but would be at least mildly surprised.

Want 50 - I wouldn't mind it. Alucard is deserving of Smash bros. There's some other characters I'm more interested in getting first and if we're going to be adding DLC from series that already I'd rather get Chun Li and Eggman first. Overall though it would be hard to say that he's not deserving should we get another Castlevania character. Like I mentioned above though, the content that comes with him doesn't feel that interesting as well.


Zero
Chance 2 - Very similar to Alucard here. Is an assist trophy so his chances are limited. However, he is still a popular character from Megman, which is already repped. Reason why I'm so low is that unlike others we've rated, Zero isn't as recognizable. There's also the issue of Capcom having a ton of good reps and I'm just not really seeing it. There's also the fact that his Smash 4 Mii costume returned already as well and I just really doubt this will happen. Maybe in pass 3 should that happen but otherwise I'm gonna say no on this one.

Want 30 - Like, I suppose I wouldn't be mad about this but overall I don't really want it. Like I mentioned above, there's a lot more interesting reps from Capcom we could get first and I'd rather get a Phoenix or Dante or Chun Li personally. For whatever reason I'm also not that interested in seeing another Mega Man rep at the moment. Would be more interested in this if we revisted it once more Capcom series get added in.


Raiden
Chance 10 - Like his shot a bit better than Zero's due to him only being repped through a spirit at the moment. I'm still feeling unconfident in him for 2 reasons at the moment. First, I'm unsure the status of the legal battle over Metal Gear Solid at the moment. It may not be a huge factor since Smash was still able to get content but perhaps Snake being in the game before made it easier to negotiate for? IDK. May change the rating if I can find info of how that's going. If it's still ongoing I can see Nintendo deciding that while trying to get everyone back for Ultimate is fine, maybe Sakurai should stay away from other characters to keep away with the legal headache. Speaking of content, that's another issue. There's already a lot of MGS content in the game. A lot of music and spirits already in the game makes me wonder what else he could bring with. There's likely something, that I don't doubt, but I dont know how much.

Want 50 - I wouldn't mind it. Raiden is pretty well known and even though I'm not sure how recognizable he is now in the 2000s he was a huge deal without a doubt. MGS is also an iconic series so I wouldn't be bothered to see Smash double dip from there. While there's others I'm more interested in I can't say I'd be disappointed with Raiden joining the battle.



Predictions:
Reimu - 20%
Quote - 5.42%

Noms:
Far Cry rep x15
Bioshock Protagonist x15
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
Dracula spelled backwards

Chance: 15%

This is higher than most people will give him and that's because I'm somewhat confident in him. We know that Sakurai almost chose Alucard and as for his assist trophy I do think it hurts him but I don't think assist trophies deconfirm characters. Anyone can fight me on that I dare you. Anyway, Alucard will definitely be the next Castlevania rep if there is one. He is very popular with a boost thanks to the Netflix series and he would bring in more content from the newer games. But that doesn't mean that he is likely. Castlevania already has a wealth of content, there are likelier assist trophy upgrades, and if Konami gets another character, I'm putting all of my betting money towards Bill Rizer.

Want: 10%

I hate to do this as I'm a Castlevania fan. But the thing is I'm mostly a fan of the older games which is what Castlevania in Smash mostly covers. That means that all of the content I ever wanted is already in Smash, plus more. Sure, there is still plenty of great content Alucard could bring with him, but as I'm already completely satisfied with the Castlevania content we already have, I just would rather see a brand new Konami series get content. Alucard is great and all, but Castlevania does not need more content anytime soon.

__________________

Raiden from Mortal Kombat Metal Gear

Chance: 10%

I've never thought much about Raiden but there is one thing in his favor. This fan poll shows that he is very requested for Smash, even more so than Sephy. Granted I'm not sure how accurate this fan poll is (It has Gundam for christ sake) but even aside from this poll I have seen his name tossed around occasionally. But now onto his merits. He is a strong contender for being the second Metal Gear rep as he is the main character of MGS 2 and he got his own spinoff game. But the thing is that there is not much pointing towards him. Again I'm a bit skeptical on that fan poll despite me posting it anyways and it's not like he has a big push. Metal Gear itself doesn't have much going on right now and the latest game was a bad zombie game that capitalized off the brand which doesn't help at all. If we are getting another Metal Gear rep, it might be someone else like Big Boss and again I'm betting on Bill Rizer as our next Konami rep.

Want: 35%

I like Raiden. He is a badass and Metal Gear Rising is a fantastic game with a banger of a soundtrack. Raiden would be really cool to play as and I'm a big Metal Gear fan so I would welcome another character. The big thing is that I'm not in a rush for more Metal Gear content though. The series is represented pretty well and putting aside Rising, the only content that I want is Duel from MGS 1 and maybe The Best Is Yet To Come if they can make a remix work. Right now if a third party series has plentiful content, I don't want to see another character from it except for a few instances like Eggman.

__________________________

Is it just me, or is he saying "Wegee" when he attacks in Smash?

Chance: 1%

I could see it, Zero is a strong contender for another Mega Man rep with his own subseries and there is plenty of Mega Man content that is missing, particularly from his games and the newer games in general. There is just a lot of obstacles in his way. His assist trophy, other Mega Man candidates, and the fact that he is owned by Capcom, who has Chun Li, and like 6 other viable series that could see representation. Normally, he would be quite likely but with everything in his path, I just don't see it. Plus Mega Man already has a ton of representation so I don't see it getting another rep anytime soon.

Edit: I forgot that Zero got a DLC Mii costume. Yeah I think that nearly kills his chances considering that it was at the same time that they announced more DLC. This drops his score from 10 to 1.

Want: 40%

Again, Mega Man has plenty of content so I am not begging for more right now. Zero is very cool and more of that sweet Mega Man music would be nice. But I'm not a huge Mega Man fan in the first place so I would not be super hyped for him. But what really drops this score is that he is competing with so many characters I want. Like I said with Chun Li, it would be a shame if Capcom didn't get one of their other series represented and instead give more content to a series that is already flourishing in Smash.

Update: I just started playing Mega Man Zero and am having a lot of fun. The soundtrack is great too so yeah I am now more accepting of Zero now though I would still prefer other Capcom characters. So want score increases from 25 to 40.

Predictions:
Quote - 13%
Reimu - 24% (Expecting some overrates)

Noms:
Among Us character x20
Excitebiker x10
 
Last edited:

Hydreigonfan01

Smash Master
Joined
Aug 24, 2018
Messages
4,307
Speaking of content, that's another issue. There's already a lot of MGS content in the game. A lot of music and spirits already in the game makes me wonder what else he could bring with. There's likely something, that I don't doubt, but I dont know how much.
This is blatantly false. Content is not a problem for Raiden. Raiden wouldn't be representing Metal Gear Solid. He'd be representing Metal Gear Rising, which has its own unique characters, with none of them being spirits except for himself. If anything content would be his biggest strength compared to Eggman, Alucard and Zero/Dr Wily.
 
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Phoenix Douchebag

Smash Lord
Joined
Mar 19, 2020
Messages
1,045
Location
ZE BATH
WE MANAGED TO AVOID DROWNING.

Chance: 1%


I don't see this happening. While MGS is a popular series, it kinda is in a limbo as of now due to the Konami Kojima drama of years ago, so i don't know the direction the series will take in the future and if it will benefit Raiden. Doesn't help he isn't particulary popular in MGS's fanbase either. Back when MGS2 was released he was so unpopular that as soon as MGS3 was being made they decided instead to have Snake instead, and the Raiden Expy in MGS3 is treated as nothing but a Butt Monkey, and only slightly changed after MSG4 and REVENGANCE. He has been never requested in the eyes of the hardcore Smash fanbase either, nor he is a particulary iconic game protagonist either (he is recognizable, but he will always be on the shadow of the legendary Clone Soldier)

The circumstances don't benefit his favor. His most popular outing was released years ago and is likely not gonna get a sequel anytime soon. Like what i stated with Sephiroth on Chun and Egg day, the lack of content in FF7 for base game was sus, something that clearly does not apply to MGS.

I don't see this character happening here nor in the future, i think we will see Bomberman or Frogger by the next entry before him, or hell even Big Boss as a Snake Echo (yes i know Snake in Smash takes cues from Big Boss in Smash, but so does Simon towards Richter)

Want: 0%


No thanks. I would rather see Bomberman first, now THAT is a Third Party that should have been in Smash since Brawl. Also i hate his Cyborg design, it's extremely unappealing, and i have an allergy towards most Platinum related things.

HU HA HU.


Chance: 1%


On terms of merit alone, this one i could see happening................for a sequel.

Zero is basically the most popular, recognizable, and iconic Mega Man charcter after the Blue Bomber himself, and is more well known and beloved than most of Mega Man's successors aside from the original and X. Once meant to be main hero of the X series, he was repurposed as big brother mentor to X in the first game, whose popularity allowed him to cheat death multiple times, turned into a major side quest in X2, became a playable character in X3 and only got more important in the series as it went on (Mega Man X4 is basically Zero's game, as the conflict of the Repliforce and Maverick Hunters can be seen more clearly in Zero's campaign compared to X's, which is another tuesday to him) and even finally gained his own subseries, the Mega Man Zero series, which takes place decades after the X series, gives Zero his own cast of friends and enemies unique to him, and was agruably one of the first big hits from Inti Creates, who went onto create games like Blaster Master Zero, Azure Striker Gunvolt and the like that clearly are influenced by the MMZ series.

He is, for all intents and purposes, one of the biggest examples of a breakout characters in gaming, alongside Isabelle, the Rabbids, Wario, Iori Yagami, and so on. I could even argue he is one of the most popular breakout characters in fiction alongside Popeye (literally meant to be a plot device) Boba Fett (another character that cheats death a lot) and so on.

He is so beloved and iconic in fact, that he has managed to appear as a playable fighter in Capcom Crossovers without Classic Mega Man or X or any Mega Man incarnation in sight, with SVC chaos and most infamously MVC3 (which is ironic as Classic Mega Man was a mainstay in those games before 3) and IF X shows up in any Capcom crossover, you can bet your ass Zero will follow suit, in the same way Sephiroth follows Cloud anywhere.

So why im not rating him higher despite being the clear cut example of a fan favorite that rises among the ranks?................Assist Trophy.

I mean, an Assist Trophy promotion can happen, we got a Spirit Promotion with Min Min, but i don't see Zero as particulary likely in that category either. Yes he could bring more X and Zero content since we are lacking in that area (there's not an Iris Spirit nor a Ciel spirit) but if i found Eggman and Chun unlikely why the hell would it be different for Zero?

Want: 50%


Seeing how harsh i was towards Chun and Robotnik, why am i giving Zero such a high rating? Simply put, bias. This is a want rating after all, and my connection towards Mega Man is strong, the X series in particular. MMX4 is my favorite Mega Man game, and that is admittedly thanks to Zero being playable in that game, where he was fully fleshed to his own unique character unlike in X3 where he felt really restricted. While i don't like how much he overshadows X and other Mega Man protagonists, i would be lying if i said i didn't prefer him. I still want to try the Zero series since i never gave it the proper love (even if Ciel was one of my first crushes and shaped my love for blue eye blondes) and he is always a joy to play as, plus his moveset is so easy to implement him, i guarantee Ryujin will be his Up Special.

I would still rather see love for more Nintedo franchises instead or see new universes from guests, but this character reminds me that even in the current direction is going, i might get a character i actually enjoy.

Oh, and Alucard.............i already rated this character, so let's quote my previous rating for a point of reference.
Adrian Farenheights Tepes (yes that's his real name, and then Warren complains about Grant Danasty's name)

Chance:1%

I never give any character a 0%. As long as it is a VG character, it can happen. But this one.........yeah no reason to think so for now. Back in the Smash 4 days i always thought that if it was a Castlevania character that was going to get into the roster, it was Simon. He is the most prominent, the original and most important of all he is usually the one that is used as the Castlevania mascot in Konami's crossover games. Simon Fought Optimus Prime, Simon went around Skateboarding, Simon became a pervert and started playing Mahjong (im not making any of this up), etc. Alucard sometimes appears in these types of games........3 games to be exact (japanese exlusive versions of Scribblenauts 1 and 2 and Oreca battle, and in the latter Simon also appears anyway).

It's like a Mega Man (and other incarnations of Mega Man) vs Zero situation, sure the series isn't named Simon or Belmonts, but Simon and his Belmont family are inseparable from the Castlevania franchise. Alucard may steal the spotlight once or twice, but he's not gonna ever be the mainline star in my eyes. Yes Symphony of the Night is the most critically acclaimed entry of the franchise (and i do believe it deserves a lot of its praise) but it is telling that despite the game's popularity, Alcuard has never starred on a sequel, all of his appearances after Sotn are as a side character (just like his debut in Castlevania 3). So im not surprised Sakurai considered Alucard just because of the praise of Symphony of the Night, only to realize his role in that game was an outlier of his common role as a side character, and went with the Belmonts instead.

So back in Smash 4 and Ultimate, i always saw Simon as the only choice. After all he is the hero whose gameplay style and role in the franchise would become a basis for the entire Belmont clan as whole, even non Belmonts (The Morris clan and Nathan Graves have similar playstyle) while Alucard debuted as a side character, became the main star of a very acclaimed game.............aaaaaaand went back to become a side character. Hell Soma got to star on a sequel of his own game while Alucard was just an extra unlockable in said sequel. I mean damn at least Zero got a tetralogy.

Now that Simon is in Smash and throwing crosses at people and making them cry every time he appears in an online match, this is no longer an issue. 3rd party Franchises can get multiple reps (hell Castlevania was the first one to ever do this) but only echoes so far have done this. Even then, i don't sea 3rd party DLC coming from an already represented series. All of Figther Pass 1's guests have been completely new to Smash, and i reckon Sakurai likes introducing new 3rd party universes instead of treading on old ground. That could easily change in the next Smash but as of now, i see this as being the status quo.

and if we get an AT promotion, i only see Waluigi or Spring Man. maybe after one of these 2 make it in i can see more, but i think Sakurai would go for First Party Assists instead. Honestly the only 3rd party promotion i see happening is Geno, anyone else is likely gonna be first party (because all the important non-playable Nintendo characters are spirits or Assists).

Yes there's the Netflix series too but..........seeing how Trevor's spirit in Ultimate (and his appereance in Grimoire of Souls) are based on Curse of Darkness, the cartoon likely had no effect in Smash at all and likely never will (thank god)

Want:10%
If this was before Simon's reveal, i would have given him a big fat 0. I hated how people overrate Alucard as this all mighty main face of the series when it couldn't be farther from the truth. But thankfully Simon won out so i don't have to be a petty fanboy.

I'm gonna be honest. I always hate it when the main character is overshadowed by:
-The overused edgy rival who is inevitably gonna fail at beating the hero and instead become its frenemy.
-The moody antihero side character who sometimes overlap with the above. Bonus points if its a bishonen.
-The waifu. Either it's a thot who only exists for sex appeal, or it's a kawaii female that tries too hard to show how "cool" she is.
-The annoying as generic mascot who's meant to be cutesy to sell merchandise, or it's an annoying comic relief (Chough Rabbids Cough)

So you can guess that i was quite miffed when all the evidence supporting Simon was always tossed aside just because "BUT MUH SYMPHONY WAS SO GOOD". Again, that is all in the past now thanks to Simon beign in.

Despite how harsh i have been towards Alucard in this post, i don't want you to think i hate Alucard. I like him, i can see his appeal. Sure he may have aspects of the above i mentioned (Bishonen Moody Antihero) but he is a likeable character (at least his game counterpart) and really fun to play as. I can see why people saw him as a breath of fresh air after all those macho Belmonts in the earlier games (you know when the Belmonts looked like masculine men, nothing against the likes of Leon Belmont or Juste Belmont but it kinda makes Alucard less unique, you know?) and im happy that despite Alucard's massive popularity after Symphony, they didn't try to milk him for all its worth like Capcom did with Zero (X should have been included in MVC3 too, no excuses) and instead used him to help heroes across the large timeline of the Castlevania series going from the middle ages from CV3 all the way into modern day in the Sorrow games. and Symphony is an amazing game. I consider CV2 the real first metroidvania, but Symphony is truly where the formula actually worked. It's one of my favorites alongside SCV4, Aria of Sorrow and Rondo of Blood.

Still despite that though, while i like him, i have no major interest for him in Smash. He definitely would be fun to play as, but when it comes to third parties, i prefer brand new universes getting a character for the first time. Like i rather have Bomberman for instance, that dude should have been in Smash as a playable character. and as for characters from already represented series, i prefer Nintendo ones like Dixie Kong or Bandanna Dee.

But i have to say i don't like him in the Neflix series, at all. I don't like how it feels like "The Alucard Show", he should be sleeping on his coffin after defeating his dad (at least until Symphony happens). But honestly i dropped the series after the first season entirely when i saw Grant wasn't involved so i really don't care about this show anymore.
Min Min got over Spring Man and Sephiroth got in over Geno. Has anything changed in Alucard's favor? No. While Sephiroth opened the floodgates, but i don't think this particularly raises his chances, anything may be possible now but not anything is likely. We still haven't gotten an AT promotion and i don't see him being the first.

I know that i repeated myself hammering the whole FF7 content deal with Sephiroth, but this really is a point that people should point a focus towards. Especially because using this past precedent, i see no reason to add Alucard because Castlevania is so far arguably the best represented Third Party franchise in Smash, with content that touches almost every single installment in the franchise, from Lords of Shadow to the Portable Metroidvanias to the Classic Series to ****ing Kid Dracula, there's nothing Alucard can really bring to the table in terms of content, as even his own game has proper representation. What he will bring? Chrstipher Belmont as a spirit?

I see franchise representation (stages, cameos, extra details that pay homage, etc) as much of a thing Sakurai wants to expand on as the characters themselves, which is why even with the One Winged Angel popping up, i don't see the likes of Chun Li as leading candidates. Maybe for the next game.

Honestly, my score is still the same: Chance :1% Want: 10%

Unlike Zero, i don't have an attachment towards Alucard that much, and i still don't like how a lot of Alucard fanboys overhype him to no end (and yes, in know Zero fanboys do that same, and that sucks as much too) plus it's not a guarantee that Alucard's moveset in Smash will be as satisfactory in Smash as Zero's, as i am sure Sakurai would try to overcomplicated it with some random gimmick.
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Fixed Schedule part 2: Secondary protagonist tendency

Zero


Chances: 0%

If you read my chance ratings for other characters who are assit trophies, then you more than likely already know my point of view about them and why I gave Zero a... 0% chance rating. That's right, I'm still on the side that believes that Assist Trophy disconfirm for the game. Spring Man wasn't the Arms rep, and seeing how the negociations for Steve were made 5 years ago, it's more than plausible to think that most characters in this pass were decided in advance by Nintendo, and so that they wouldn't pick something that requires actual ressources to make like a 3d model, an AI, in some cases a moveset, in other voice clips, wadi, wada. And now, besides the "ATs disconfirm" bit, would Nintendo pick specificaly Zero as the next Capcom character? Possibly, but also not that likely. He is a popular character from a decently popular series, and he is requested by the fans to get in Smash (as the presence of his AT shows) but Capcom also has so many series that could get into Smash, and between Dante, Monster Hunter, and Phoenix Wright, I don't think that Zero would get over any of those 3 as dlc.

Want: 90%

Which is a shame, because Zero is soooooooooo cool, and definitively my favorite Megaman character. I love Megaman and he was one of my most wanted for Sm4sh, but I would also love to have Zero in the game so much since I prefer the Megaman X series over classic Megaman, and well, Zero is one of the reason to that. His moveset could be so cool, and some would complain because of his z-sword, but I just don't care, I like swordies, and Zero would be an amazing one to have in Smash. Now, there's the aguemnt of Zero destroying the balance of every figting games he's a part of. Well, I know it since I played UMvC3, and I don't care, after all I main Vergil in that game with Dante and Zero on the side. Besides, I care more about the character being cool to play than about the balance of a fighting game, even if it's still very important.

The prince of the night that plays it's symphony.

Chances: 0%

If you read my chance ratings for other characters who are assit trophies, then you more than likely already know my point of view about them and why I gave Zero a... 0% chance rating. That's right, I'm still on the side that believes that Assist Trophy disconfirm for the game. Spring Man wasn't the Arms rep, and seeing how the negociations for Steve were made 5 years ago, it's more than plausible to think that most characters in this pass were decided in advance by Nintendo, and so that they wouldn't pick something that requires actual ressources to make like a 3d model, an AI, in some cases a moveset, in other voice clips, wadi, wada. And now, besides the "ATs disconfirm" bit, would Nintendo pick specificaly Alucard for the next Konami character? Possibly, though I see Bill/Jimmy from Contra as more likely, as well as Bomberman and Raiden, who, spoiler alert, will get more than a 0% chance rating.
Also, yes, I did ctrl+c to ctrl+v most that. And also I think that a new Konami character is less likely than a new Capcom character by quite a lot, but I dissgress.

Want: 80%

I don't like Alucard as much as I like Zero, but even then he's still a top tier character with a top tier moveset potential that would represent a top tier game (Symphony of the Night, which is still an excellent Metroidvania to this day). So not only would Alucard be very cool, he would also carry an important part of history with him, as Symphony of the Night is why the vania is in Metroidvania, the same way that Super Metroid is why Metroid is in Metroidvania. And once again, Alucard could have a cool as hell moveset (as evidenced by his Assist Trophy having a cool as hell moveset), but also a great stage, and some great tracks, even if Castlevania isn't in an urgent need of new tracks at all, unlike FFVII before Sephiroth, but it would still be very cool since Symphony of the Night is a very good game, even to this day (partly because of how great the pixel art is in this game. Seriosuly, the pixel art in late Snes/early PS1 games is so good, it makes the 2d games of this era age so much better than PS1/N64 3d games, and even more than PS2/GC games).

I CARVED MY OWN PATH! YOU FOLLOWED YOUR WRAT! BUT MAYBE WE'RE BOTH THE SAAAAAAME!

Chances: 1%

Once again low chances but highter than 0 since he's not an AT, and once again I feel like Sephiroth is more the exception to 3rd party series getting an unique second rep as dlc rather than the rule (or as I called it yersterday... or rather some days ago, law. Listen, I am an SMT fan, there is only law, chaos, and "kill every last one of them", and only those 3 sides to me). So, besides that, would Nintendo pick Raiden as a character? Maybe, since after all, Raiden is a very popular character, and he has more than enough to him since he is a cyborg ninja (I love the logic in Metal Gear), and his own game, Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance which is made by Platinum Games, a company that has strong ties with Nintendo, and is owned with Konami who has a good relationship with Nintendo thanks to Smash so they could add Raiden with MGR content exclusively, but I don't htink that it's likely, especialy since Contra feels like the next Konami series that would get in Smash, as it's a Nes classic like Ninja Gaiden is.

Want: 85%

RULES OF NATURE! Raiden would be awesome to have in Smash not only because he himself is awesome, but also because Metal Gear Rising itself is awesome (the over-the-top character action style goes so well with Metal Gear as it's already so over-the-top), and one of the better character action games out there, and as everyone already knows it, Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance got an amazing soundtrack, between Rules of Nature, It Has to be this Way, and well, everyting else, any of those tracks in Smash would be so awesome to have. Just imagine having Cloud and Ganondorf duel on final destination while the background music is "THE WHOLE WORLD HAS BURNED! BUT NOBODY IS TO BLAAAME! BUT STARING ACROSS, THIS BARREN WASTED LAND, I FEEL NEW LIFE WILL BE BORN, BENEATH THE BLOODSTAINED SAND! ", it would be so epic, especialy if we hear it in like Grand Finals of a tournament. Oh and the stage would also be so cool, especialy if the Metal Gear Senator Armstrong uses is in the background, or even better yet, as a stage hazzard.

Nominations

Madeline Mii x30

Predictions

Quote: 21.5%

Reimu: 34.2%
 

Blankiturayman

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Sep 17, 2014
Messages
459
Wow, I wonder who this "Arikado" fellow is.
Chance: 3%
Despite being an AT, I'm giving Alucard a little more leeway because he was explicitly stated to almost have been the choice for Castlevania, before ultimately going with the more classic Simon and a little Richter extra. Overall I think it was a good choice, but given his presence, I'd say it's pretty clear cut that Alucard would be the next Castlevania choice. For good reason too; when it comes to CV characters he's one of the most popular barring only the Belmonts themselves, and the game where he makes his standalone playable debut (not CV3 in this case), SotN, is highly regarded as one of the best in the series and a very good game overall. That's all pretty good, but where this falls flat is that they might be alright with how Castlevania is in the game at the moment. The demographic Alucard would be going for would be mostly shared with Simon and Richter. That being said, he does have the advantage of being part of the more "modern" castlevanias. (If you don't count SotN/PoR Richter anyway.)

Want: 90%
I'd be pretty cool with him, not only would Alucard be pretty different from the Belmonts given his many abilities and weapons, but I also like him a ton as a character. SotN really is a great game and it'd overall just be awesome to have Alucard playable. That being said, as it is, I'm very satisfied with how Castlevania is in the game. I just wouldn't mind Alucard being added as well.

Don't you get tired of dying so many times?
Chance: 1%
Zero is a very popular character. Just being in crossovers alone (looking at you MvC3) without any other of the titular blue bombers, same as Tron Bonne, stands to reason alone to show that he's popular. He even had a subseries of his own, helping set Inti Creates, a developer that continues to this day in the landmark. It's probably why out of all MM characters outside of the classic series, he was the one to be made into an Assist Trophy. You might call this a feeling but I'd say that since not only is the Assist Trophy there, but his Mii Costume also came back with no problem, I feel it's unlikely they planned to add him for DLC. He might make sense otherwise but even then, there's a lot of competition from Capcom regarding some of their big characters not yet in. Make no mistake though; Zero is also known, it's just I feel the priorities might not be there since he'd, much like Alucard, share demographics with Mega Man, and Nintendo might wanna expand it when it comes to that.

Want: 90%
I'd love another Mega Man character overall, be it whoever. Of course Zero is no exception, although he is not my first choice, I'd say not even my first MMX choice, that goes to X himself, but I think he would be cool. If he were to be added I'd hope he takes cues from the MMZ incarnation as that's my favorite playable version of him, plus he has more weapons to take from, such as the Triple Rod (which keeps changing, into a chain and "Recoil Rod") and the Shield Boomerang. He also has some extra weapons in X8, knuckles, glaives, a fan, even a hammer, you just don't run out of weapons with this guy. And that's all without mentioning the myriad of Z-Saber and other techniques he gets through both the X and Zero series. I'd also hope they use his Z-Buster in some ways, but it makes more sense for him to be mainly melee based. Plus we could get more MM music from X and Z and that'd be great alongside the potential stage, maybe one from MMX like Central Highway or even Zero Space would make sense, I'd love a MMZ one though.

Abstaining on Raiden, don't know much about him.

Nominations:
Worms x5
Estelle Bright x20 ,if I got it right

Predictions:
Quote: 15%
Reimu: 20%
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Yesterday was a big day for nominations, so get ready for a long post! If you have even the mildest interest in how your characters are doing I'd recommend that you check the list as well, it's a very different panorama today.

[Rerate] Monokuma x255
Qbby x250
Concept: Characters that don't have games on Nintendo platforms x215
[Rerate] Neku x199
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x187
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x185
Crazy Dave x180

200 - 151

Worms x175
Concept: Among Us character x165
Concept: A 4X strategy rep x155

150 - 101

John Marston x150
[Rerate] Velvet Crowe x150
Marina Liteyears x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x108
Henry Stickmin x105
Stage: Bowser's Castle x101

100 - 51

Riptor x95
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x92
Boss: Rayquaza x90
Concept: Far Cry rep x90

Fulgore x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Giygas x76
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Tetra x75
Mii Costume: Madeline x70
Echo (Bowser) x65
Concept: A Challenger Pack with 2 Fighters x65

Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x65
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x65
Junpei (Zero Escape) x63
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo x60
Echo (Olimar) x56
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Ghirahim x55

50 - 25

Zagreus x45
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x40
Excitebiker x30
Ryza (Atelier) x25
Mike Haggar x25
Senator Armstrong x25
Mii Costume: Zagreus x25
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
Stage: Tetris x20
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x20
Estelle Bright x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Agent 47 x20
Filia (Skullgirls) x19
Yarn Yoshi x15
Billy & Jimmy Lee x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
[Rerate] Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Kaede Akamatsu x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
[Rerate] Arthur x5
Rallen (Spectrobes) x5
Infernape x5
Firebrand x1

Beat skates into the top seven, stepping on Worms and passing Crazy Dave to steal sixth place.

A 4X strategy rep and Among Us character pass 150 noms.

Stage: Bowser's Castle and Henry Stickmin pass 100 noms.

Tetra, Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, Curly as Quote's alt/Echo, Mii Costume: Madeline, and A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass pass 50 noms.

Senator Armstrong, Mii Costume: Zagreus, the actual Zagreus, and Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages reach 25 noms.

Today's newcomers are... deep breath Excitebiker (30 noms), a rerate of Arthur (5 noms), a rerate of Yuri Lowell (10 noms), Kaede Akamatsu (10 noms), Jesse (10 noms), Rallen (5 noms), A BioShock protagonist (20 noms), Mike Haggar (25 noms), a rerate of Metal Sonic (20 noms), Agent 47 (20 noms), and Infernape (5 noms). That's gotta be a record.

That was pretty hectic! But at least tomorrow is only... 30 noms... sad trombone
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,261
Abstain. I don't have any opinions on any of these guys.

Nominations: [Rerate] Monokuma x5 (is it only 5? We're rating three characters, and I wanna make sure)
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,515
Location
Drenthe, NL
Null
Chance: 0.1%
This guy seems to be popular among Megaman fans but I personally haven't seen many request for him. Regardless, he's an Assist Trophy. My stances on that are that there are only a few viable options to be upgrated to a playable fighter and Zero just isn't one of them. The Megaman series is represented very well, arguably the best out of any third-party series. Capcom also isn't doing much with it currently, atleast not the X franchise. I don't think Nintendo would have much insentive to pick him over a character from a Capcom franchise not already represented. Even Chun-Li is likelier as a secondary character, since she's a lot more iconic and not stuck to some other non-spirit role. Remember that Zero also is a Mii-costume which was revealed in the same presentation they confirmed "More DLC" making it unlikely he was planned to be a part of that.

Want: Abstaining

From one long silver haired swordfighter man to another
Chance: 5%
Alucard is pretty popular and was originally planned for Ultimate. He also doesn't seem to have a Mii costume (yet) so I'd say he's way likelier to be an upgrade than Zero. Still there's already a boatload of Castlevania content in the game so I'm not expecting a double dipp there. In terms of Konami competition there are still things like Contra to keep an eye on. Another Konami rep in general might not be as likely as a few months ago however since we did get a Bomberman costume with Steve's pack

Want: 50%

Alucard is definitely a character whose driving point is his huge moveset potential alone. I've beaten SotN so I would know. I did think the game was a teensy bit overrated but that's not to take away from how fun of a fighter Alucard would be. To be honest though, I wouldn't be as hype for a Alucard pack than I would, say, A Dr Eggman pack. There's just enough Castlevania representation there for me, so I might appreciate Alucard better as a bonus fighter. Alucard also being arguably a "Metroidvania" representative could possibly mean he competes with one of my most wanted characters.

I found MGR Revengance for 3 bucks at a bargain bin
Chance: 0.5%
Most of Alucard's negatives apply to Raiden as well. He ain't an AT that said so take that for what you will. His main game was also developped by Platinum Games but I'm not sure how much that matters. It's been quite some time MGR released and while it actually did pretty well to my knowledge I don't think Nintendo or Konami consider it relevant anymore. It's also not on a Nintendo system and while that might not matter much nowadays, MGR made nowhere near the impact games like FFVII and Persona 5 did. Also I'd imagine the Konami/Kojima relationship complicates things regarding more Metal Gear tho I could be wrong on that.

Want: Abstaining, I do own MGR because of how dirt cheap it was but I'll likely won't play it for quite some time.

Quote: 10.36%
Reimu: 17.61%
Henry Stickmin x20
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
1,008
Alucard

Chance: 1%

Although there is no hard rule that assist trophy can't be promoted, it certainly does lower chance overall. Not to mention, Konami overall seems mess lately. It was tough to get back Snake on top of Simon and Ritcher. I doubt it would be worth effort to get third Castlevania rep. Let's not forget enough contents in the game already. I think lacking contents to fill really hurts character's chance. I just don't like looking for other games of already repped series to fill up the empty space.

Want: abstain

I've played Castlevania few times, but I haven't gotten chance to invest myself deeply into the series. Hopefully, someday, I may be able to pick up. I think I'm fairly neutral on his inclusion. I would still be bummed that he would take up a slot that characters from new series could use.

Zero

Chance: 0.5%

He has Mii costume on top of assist trophy. And, Mii costume comes from DLC. Even though it's from FP1, I still don't see point of putting back his Mii costume if he's going to be playable. If it were base game content, I can see the point, but not DLC. Why pay for Mii costume if there will be playable version? I think Megaman is covered enough already. I guess you can bring other Megaman games and spin-off to fill space, but at that moment, that would be stretching. Not to mention, he has fierce competition within Capcom.

Want: 70%

I think he's pretty cool. He could bring interesting moveset from main games and other spin-off. But, I would rather have him come from DLC line where it's purely fighter without other content. Like packed with other fighters. Still, there are other Capcom fighter I want to see before him: Phoenix Wright and Dante mainly.

Raiden

Chance: 1%

The same deal as Alucard. What's worse... it's MGS character. Snake alone was already hassle to bring back. I can't imagine Sakurai doing that again. Like other two series, it's hard to justify filling dlc space with MGS contents in Ultimate. And, I don't think neither Nintendo nor Konami has any good reason to pursue MGR or any other Raiden related games. He doesn't have any advantages Sephiroth had. FF7 had good excuse of poor contents. And, FF7 remake is still on the line. The same can't be said about Raiden and his game.

Want: 75%

I enjoyed MGR, so that's plus. I think his slow motion attack (sorry forgot the name) could be his gimmick. I'm not sure whether that would act like Bayonetta's witch time. I guess it would most likely... or final smash. His aesthetic would be unique enough to calm the angry folks who are sick of swordmen. Still, with few slots remaining, I want new characters from new franchises.

Nom:
Characters that don't have their games on Nintendo platform x 20
A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x 10
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,369
I see some people say that Konami was hard to work with to get Snake back and to get Castlevania introduced. My question is: Where is the evidence for this? I get that Konami have been a bunch of ******** for a while but come on just look at Castlevania's content. 2 characters, a stage, 34 music tracks, a bunch of spirits, a boss, and a whole section in World of Light. Do you really think that if Konami was that much of a hassle to work with that they would allow this much content? Just because they are up in their *** does not mean that they do negotiations differently. They still negotiate like any other company.
 

Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Time for me to chime in.

Insert obligatory "Die, monster!" joke here.

Chance: oof (0)
I don't see it. Alucard is already an assist trophy, which is basically a death sentence, in case everybody's views on a certain black and red hedgehog were any indication. If SHADOW THE FREAKING HEDGEHOG can't do it, then I don't see how Alucard can.

Want: Abstain.
I'm not really sure about my feelings on Alucard. I have nothing but utmost respect for Symphony of the Night, and I can certainly see the moveset potential, but... I dunno. Just really mixed feelings on him.


Obvious Joke is obvious. You know the one.

Chance: WHATAMIFIGHTINGFOOOOOOOOR?!?!?!?!? (0)
A DLC Mii Costume ON TOP of being an Assist Trophy? Gee, and Zero's chances weren't bad enough as JUST an AT! Yeah, Zero was already long since dead in the water. Which is sad, because...

Want: 60%.
I'm of the mind that if we were to get a second Mega Man representative, Zero would ABSOLUTELY be the #1 candidate, if only to recreate the duality of playstyles that he and his partner X showed in their own outings in the Mega Man X series, and heck, they could even throw in moves from Mega Man Zero, if they really wanted to.


"I said my sword is a tool of justice. Not used in anger. Not used for vengeance. But now, I'm not so sure. And besides... This. Isn't. My. Sword."

Chance: I can't give exacts, but it's <10%.
Raiden's the only one of these three characters who actually has a chance, but that's not really saying much. We already have a large abundance of Konami Content (plus somehow bringing Solid Snake back, who is much more popular than Raiden is, even counting the absolute gem that was Metal Gear Rising: Revengeance), and I don't see Konami getting a fourth representative yet- especially when Bandai Namco still only has one.

Want: 50%
Raiden would actually be pretty cool. I could see a combination of Blade Mode and Ripper Mode working well for his Final Smash, doing something similar to Bayonetta's own Final Smash, and Raiden himself has shown enough agility and swordplay skills to have decent moveset potential (Thank you Metal Gear Rising!).

Noms: If possible, Agumon x5

Lastly, I'll do a single prediction.

Reimu: ~30% or so.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
I'll abstain from Alucard and Raiden since I'm really busy right now. In regards to other Konami characters though, I definitely would not want them in over Bomberman (even with him having no chance especially after the Mii Costume).

-----

Zero

Chance: 0.1%
He got assist trophy'd in the base game so his chances off the bat aren't looking great. And if that wasn't bad enough then his SSB4 Mii Costume returned alongside with Banjo's release. That pretty much says to me that Sakurai has no interest in him for Ultimate. Even if those two things didn't happen, he'd have to compete with other Capcom characters. Phoenix Wright, Chun-Li, and Monster Hunter are just a few of the other Capcom names that are looking a lot more likely now.

Want: 50%
Zero is pretty cool. I played a small amount of the first Zero GBA game and also sometimes used him in UMvC3. If we get another Mega Man rep then it probably will (and should) be Zero. That said though, I'm still not incredibly too close to the Mega Man series. I'd rather have other Capcom characters like Phoenix or Chun-Li. Even less popular names like Frank West or Haggar I'd prefer over Zero. Also in regards to Mega Man characters, Zero would also have to compete with Proto Man who I also like.

-----

Quote chance prediction: 16.93%
Reimu chance prediction: 38.00% (expecting multiple 100% chance scores as usual)

Nominations:
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/echo x5
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x5
Akuma x5
Trevor Philips x5
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Team PlayStation... kinda... maybe not really for Zero... and Alucard also debuted on a Nintendo console... crap.

Chance: Zero percent for 0, while Alucard and Raiden both get 10% for different reasons. Zero got a Mii Costume and that's all she wrote, he'll have to repair himself in the next game. Meanwhile, Alucard and Raiden are characters who have similar weaknesses, Alucard bearing a stronger strength while Raiden lacks a weakness that may cripple Alucard. I think Konami is not getting anybody in this pass, because of the Bomberman and Goemon Mii Costumes. It would be bizarre to have entirely new Mii Costumes release outside of a Konami Challenger Pack, and Bomberman dropped during Volume 2 even. From what I gather, Alucard has always been from the more popular game and bigger fan request, while Raiden is from the more popular series and has made a comeback after an infamous first impression. Raiden's biggest advantage is that he is not an Assist Trophy but Alucard is. If you interpret AT's as doomsday even into DLC, then Raiden easily wins. Otherwise, it's a very close match, and I could see either of them happening... if I thought a Konami rep was happening.

Want: 60% Zero, abstain on Raiden, and 70% on Alucard. I will die on this hill that Alucard, even if not necessarily a better choice, would not have been a worse one than the Belmonts, and having the best of both worlds would be great. Zero is in a similar boat, although I generally prefer Classic to X and haven't touched the Zero series (and the way they're described, they sound frustrating. No thanks). Both of them would have very good movesets and as a result, I am on board. Raiden would have gotten a want score if I had ever actually cared about any game he's in, but I do not. I do not mind his presence,

Concept - Team Fortress 2 Rep x Max. Now that I can understand the hype, I think this would be a very cool concept to nominate. Reimu will have an inflated performance as usual though not to the same degree, 28.75%, not so much Quote. 16.47%.
 
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Neosonic97

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
304
Reason why I'm so low is that unlike others we've rated, Zero isn't as recognizable.
I'm sorry what.

Zero, the secondary character from the X series, who is so popular, he literally got his own sub-series AND is one of the poster children for characters not staying dead due to popularity? Not recognizable?

Not going to beat around the bush here, saying Zero isn't recognizable is just objectively wrong. Your other points for a low rating are fair (Zero does have a lot of competition AND he's already an AT AND DLC Mii Costume), but we're talking like, a character who has a strong case for being THE most popular character in the entire franchise, and certainly the most popular of the most well-known Mega Man protagonists?

Like... I literally CRINGED at reading this.
 
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PK-remling Fire

Smash Ace
Joined
Sep 22, 2018
Messages
751
Location
The Warp
Here're my two cents for Alucard:

Chance of Getting in - 0% (for Smash Ultimate)
I think that Alucard's chances are shot considering he's an assist trophy. However, his chance of being in a hypothetical Super Smash Bros 6 is very good compared to other AT's. He has a good fan backing, is featured in Richter's Palutena's Guidance, and was even considered to be in Ultimate's roster before Sakurai decided on the Belmonts. If Konami's willing to play ball, Alucard is a very serious contender in that regard.

Want - 100%
Alucard is one of the most popular Castlevania characters, and for good reason. He's got a varied moveset to separate him from other sword-wielders and I think his moveset from SotN would be able to be translated perfectly to Smash Bros, which his Assist Trophy already partially demonstrates. If Sakurai wants a third Castlevania rep, Alucard is the character I'm backing 100%
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Son of Dracula

Chance: 20%
Now that the dust has settled on Sephiroth, everyone is, understandably, all over Chun-Li, and Eggman, and also Tales because of that alleged leak. It makes sense, it matches with the expectations that Sega, Capcom and Bandai Namco are to get a character (even if we were way off with that for the first Pass). But I think a major takeaway that's been ignored is that they might be looking back on scrapped ideas from base game. ARMS was cited as being too late for base, and lo and behold, Min Min. Minecraft was leaked a while back, and apparently was in discussions for 5 years. And Sephiroth, well, jury's out on him but you've all heard the rumors. And one character we know from the man himself was considered for Ultimate is Alucard.

Alucard is an iconic character, and probably the most popular in Castlevania. He was, apparently, very popular in the ballot. He has tons of potential for a wildly unique moveset. And he's the protagonist of one of the best received games in Castlevania, and one of the most influential of all time, the masterpiece that is Symphony of the Night. That's one hell of a resume, and so even with Castlevania being a recent addition Alucard already feels like an omission. However one thing keeps me from putting him in the same category as the two from yesterday: the content that Castlevania already has in Ultimate. It has a ton of music, and Spirits, and while there's always more to add (no Sypha and Grant? That's a freebie) I think the big problem with Castlevania is the stage. Would they sell Alucard with another version of Dracula's Castle? Even if it varies from game to game in terms of design and layout, it's still the same place. What would they even call the stage? Dracula's Castle 2? I don't know, that's a very specific problem to have, though if someone has any ideas for stages he could come with I'd love to hear them. I'll gladly take the L on this one.

At the end of the day though, its character first and content second, and Alucard is a strong character. With Bomberman super dead (why do they keep doing this to my boy?) it's slim pickings for Konami, and Alucard is in a strong position to get over the likes of Bill Rizer and Frogger.

Want: 100%
I love me some Castlevania, and it has tons of amazing characters that I'd love to see in Smash someday. Foremost of all, of course, is Mr. Tepes here. If Sakurai can replicate the feeling of playing Symphony of the Night in Smash, well, sign me up.

Doc Ock was the President

Chance: 15%
As a character, I think Raiden pales a bit in comparison to Alucard. He's iconic, especially in his cyborg ninja form, but he doesn't have the pedigree of Alucard. Not to mention everybody hated him when he debuted for not being Snake because gamers aren't very smart. But eventually he became a super-badass and everyone adored him and here we are today.

Remember how I mentioned Alucard's problem was Castlevania's content? That's Raiden's salvation. Raiden is the star of his own very acclaimed spinoff, Metal Gear Rising Revengeance, and that has zero content in Smash. No music, and no Spirits. Given its cast of incredibly memorable and meme-worthy characters (nanomachines amirite?), and its rocking soundtrack, with Raiden people probably want his content more than they want him as playable. And hey, it gets his foot in the door.

Want: 90%
Yeah, Raiden's cool. After 12 years we could use more Metal Gear content, Rules of Nature is the best song in human existence, and Raiden represents the recurring cyborg ninja archetype which is an important part of Metal Gear. And also I really like him as a character. And he's a Platinum rep so he'd probably be fun to play as. So yeah, let Jack rip in Smash.

WHAT AM I FIGHTING FOR

Chance: 0%
I was all ready to give him a lower but decent chance and then I saw that his Mii Costume returned. Uh, yeah, he's dead. Probably shouldn't have suggested him for the schedule, my bad. Ignoring the Mii Costume, I think while Zero is a big character, probably the most popular in the series, he's still not the top dog. Mega Man has so many ways to go, from continuing with classic Mega Man with the likes of Dr. Wily, Proto Man, Roll or Bass, to Zero's rival X, to even the likes of the other Mega Men or Tron Bonne. Zero is a strong contender but he isn't the only one, and that's without diving further into the sea of potential fighters that is Capcom, which now counts Chun-Li among its ranks. And Chun-Li trumps Zero in every category.

Want: 90%
I prefer X but Zero's cool. He'd rep three subseries of Mega Man and even function as an Inti Creates rep of sorts since they started out with Mega Man Zero and ZX. I don't know if he'd come with Central Highway, but there's a chance, and we need that stage in Smash. I also enjoyed playing Zero in MvC3, so I'd probably take to him in Smash as well.

Noms: Marina Liteyears x20
Agent 47 x10

Quote prediction: 20%
Reimu prediction: 23.61% I expect the Crash-KOSMOS-Reimu "leak" to be mentioned a lot
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
20,913
Location
Scotland
If SHADOW THE FREAKING HEDGEHOG can't do it, then I don't see how Alucard can.
i dunno theres probably a few instances where like that has happened. i mean how many of of us would have said theres no way theyd chose PP over toad/geno/waluigi. im not sure saying if one character cant get in another one certainly counts works anymore
 

Inue Houji

Purplish Wig
Joined
Oct 8, 2020
Messages
265
Zero
Chance: 0%
An already unlikely character weighed down by several factors, but mainly two. It's one thing to be an assist trophy, he could've still had a chance, however small it was. But the Mii costume post-release is pretty much a deconfirm.

Want: 20%
Never played any of the games he's starring in, but his design is passable, and judging from MvC, would have a decent moveset. The main reason I'd want him though is more Megaman music, as those are always great.


Raiden
Chance: 1%
Starring in a single game quite a few years back is unlikely to earn him a spot on the roster. He does appear in previous Metal Gear games, but it's Revengeance he's known for. In the unlikely event a sequel is announced, he might have a shot, but I wouldn't count on it.

Want: Abstain
I know too little about the game to rate it. It does have some banger tracks though.


Alucard
Chance: 5%
He does have a few things going for him. He's definitely popular. Apparently he was the ballot choice, but the Belmonts got protagonist priority. Konami is definitely willing to play ball, judging from the amount of Castlevania content in the base game.
There is however, the assist trophy issue.
I don't feel like AT's disconfirm, but they're not likely to happen unless there's significant fan outcry(i.e. Waluigi).

Want: 20%
While my personal Castlevania choice would be Soma Cruz(as Aria of Sorrow is the only CV game I've completed), Alucard seems pretty cool too. He'd have a wide variety of moves to choose from when designing him, therefore having the potential to be pretty unique fighter. The Castlevania content in Smash thus far has been great, and I'd love to see more. Plus, it might motivate me to finish SotN.

Predictions
Quote: 3.2%
Reimu: 7.4%

Nominations
Beat x20
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
I'm sorry what.

Zero, the secondary character from the X series, who is so popular, he literally got his own sub-series AND is one of the poster children for characters not staying dead due to popularity? Not recognizable?

Not going to beat around the bush here, saying Zero isn't recognizable is just objectively wrong. Your other points for a low rating are fair (Zero does have a lot of competition AND he's already an AT AND DLC Mii Costume), but we're talking like, a character who has a strong case for being THE most popular character in the entire franchise, and certainly the most popular of the most well-known Mega Man protagonists?

Like... I literally CRINGED at reading this.
You think Zero as as well known as Chun Li and Eggman? If so we might as well just stop here because we're living in completely seperate bubbles then.
 
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TCT~Phantom

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TCT~Phantom
Day over.

Today is an indie day of sorts. In one corner we have Reimu, the main star of the Touhou games. In the other we got Quote, the hero of Cave Story. Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow is a bit of an old school day, Ryu Hayabusa from Ninja Gaiden and Adol from Ys are being rerated. Predict their chance scores.
 

Sari

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Some songs for today's characters:

Quote


Reimu

 

DaUsername

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Abstaining from the Assist Trophies
Raiden
Chance: 10%
If we get another Metal Gear character, it'll probably be this one. I don't think another MG character is super likely though. But nothing's impossible.
Want: 51%
Raiden's pretty cool. Honestly the main reason I want him in is so that they have an excuse to add Rules of Nature to Smash.

Reimu prediction: 22%, and at least 1 person will give her a 100% chance.
Quote prediction: 11%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x however many I earned today (15?)
 

TrainerFireRed

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I'm not sure what their chances would be, but was Touhou ever on Nintendo consoles?

Still it's popular so probably about 20%
If it was on Nintendo I'll add another ten points

Cave Story has been on Nintendo consoles since the Wii days, even on the Wii shop until that came down, but I'd say about 20% too.

I'd rather have Quote since I know nothing about Touhou except Ronald McDonald memes, but I know Touhou's older so really they both have about the same chance.

Maybe Quote a bit more because it's ports are usually Nintendo or PC, but sadly Cave Story has been swept under the rug in recent years so who knows what Sakurai would do.
 

Cutie Gwen

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The King of Indies

Chance: 10% I don't really need to go on here all that much, I'm pretty sure everyone's at the very least heard of Cave Story, be it the original, the Wiiware version, the 3ds version or the Switch version. It's often considered the first indie game despite that blatantly being false, but that does mean people are aware of it's legacy and success, which is great. I'd rate Quote as likely as Reimu but sadly, Cave Story rights are... Difficult. Due to a crappy contract, all the rights for the IP are at Nicalis, who've been incredibly controversial due to outings of the CEO being an absolute dickweed and the aformentioned ****ery they pulled on Pixl. Nintendo obviously wouldn't care about this, they've worked with Koichi Sugiyama for the first pass after all and Nintendo profits directly from Chinese concentration camps, but I do think they would hesitate here as Nicalis' CEO is also known to just not keep contact with business partners, ghosting them entirely. While I'm pretty sure Sakurai and Smash are a big enough deal to make the ****** change that habit, I can't help but feel Nintendo wouldn't want to bother trying, call it a gut feeling as it's really just my intuition.

Want: 80% Obviously I highly respect the original, it's a timeless classic that deserves all the recognition it gets even if it's not exactly properly credited, so let's get to it here. Despite never playing the game, I've seen a few playthroughs, though the co-op one I saw showed how ****ing awful the game is with that enabled holy ****, I love the boss themes, Gravity and the final boss theme specifically. I also think the game deserves praise for it's highly ambitious story with it's serious themes, which especially stood out to me because I thought it was a rule for platformers to have simple stories back when I first heard of the game. I also once made a moveset for Quote in the Smash 4 days, but I never kept it writted down so alas, it's lost. However, I also have some mixed feelings here due to Nicalis and I don't have personal experience with the game to the point I can wave it off so by the time I finally play the game, I'll always think "Nicalis are *****". At least the original version's still up for free.

The Queen of Indies

Chance: 30% I have little to no experience with Touhou as I've only played 10 minutes at a friend, though I did buy Luna Nights today funny enough, but it would be outright foolish to deny this series' impact, the memes alone from Cirno's Math Class, Marisa Stole The Precious Thing, Night of Nights, U.N OWEN WAS HER and more were such a huge part of internet culture a decade ago and Touhou hasn't stopped in that time, it's also been reported on by Arte, which is a French/German news network, CNN, shown off by Charlie Brooker, referenced by countless media such as Umineko, Skullgirls, League of Legends, Craig of the Creek, Scott Pilgrim, World of Warcraft and countless more. For an indie series, this is exceptionally huge, not even the likes of Quote or Shovel Knight could even hope to reach that level! Now, some of you may be thinking "But Touhou's a Japan only franchise, it can't get in due to Sakurai's concern about worldwide appeal!" To which I laugh at as all you need to do is go to the website of your local gaming store or the eshop and type in Touhou to be proven wrong. "But Touhou is 90% fan content, Nintendo hates that and wouldn't allow it' How strange, Touhou and Kirby have crossed over, Sonic Mania's featured in Smash and again, there's akready Touhou games available on Switch, this is a blatant lie that does little more than prove detractors are dishonest.

Want: 100% I like Touhou from all the fun memes it spawned, some rather memorable character designs and the phenomenal music so I'd be very much happy to see Reimu, who'd be a very visualy different character due to her distinctively Japanese outfit and as much as I despise zoners, Reimu can easily fit that bill and hey, there's still a stage and countless songs to enjoy! Again, the music is especially exciting to see and I'm very curious for what will or won't get incluced as ZUN holds all the copyrights and makes another Terry scenario very possible, I also think that we need an indie character in the game at some point and while one can argue Steve counts due to his origins, Minecraft is owned by Microsoft, one of the largest companies in the world. I'm also curious what will be done for Spirits as there's countless iconic characters from the franchise to use like Sakuya, Cirno, Remelia, Marisa, Flandre and all the other 100+ characters this series has spawned, I also strongly think Reimu's classic mode would include Marx due to his wings being very similar to Flandre's. This isn't even getting into Reimu as a character, she's a protagonist who isn't neccesarily a good person as she's very rude, would be willing to kill Yokai for no reason and harass people for donations as she's dirt poor to the point she's depicted as eating mud.

Velvet Crowe x10
Zagreus x10
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Quote

Chance: 15% -
Nothing has really changed in Quote's favor, aside from surviving more Mii Costume massacres. Quote is still one of the indie frontrunners and a historical indie figure (which appeals to Sakurai), along with being readily available on the Switch (which appeals to Nintendo). People cite that Nicalis could ghost Sakurai, but would they really? They're aware that Smash is a high honor, even expessing explicit interest in Smash via Twitter. Furthermore Nicalis has has a continuing relationship with Nintendo, releasing recent titles like Umihara Kawase among others. Cave Story's fanbase may not be as vocal as it used to be but they make themselves apparent, Quote usually places pretty well among Smash polls. With every major indie competitior either spirited, costumed, or assist trophied, Quote has better chances than people think. Still, with uncertainty in an indie rep at all who knows what could happen.

Want: 100% - Cave Story is a near and dear game to me, having discovered it in High School and replayed it many times. Quote is the father of indies and deserves to be the first indie representative, no questions asked. His moveset would be super varied and fun, mixinf guns, King's Sword (which he THROWS LIKE A BOOMERANG), bubbles, fireballs, among many others. Attacking others players could even upgade his weapons just like with the in-game power-up triangles. There's so much potential here and I think Quote would make for a very fun, fast, floaty gunner character! Let's not forget the fantastic music and a gorgeous stage that would come with him! Toby Fox got Undertale into Smash in some form, why not bring one of the big players that inspired him?


Reimu

Chance: 5% -
Reimu's chances haven't changed much either, even with that one doujin leak in circulation. Nintendo has been so tight-lipped about leaks these past four characters that I'm not willing to believe a single one, unless it arrives right before the reveal. Outside of that, the same pros and cons for Reimu apply. She has huge popularity in Japan and ZUN is extremely easy to work with, along with her long history appealing to Sakurai. On the other hand, even if fan-translations exist, her games (beyond a couple of random fangames) have not been localized, and I woun't consider her established in the West until I can walk into a GameStop and buy a fully localized main-series Touhou game right off of the shelf. Most of the games had to be pirated and patched, until recently, and even though they're on Steam, the main series content was BURIED by fangames. Not entirely a point against it but it shows that it's a franchise more about doujin culture than the core franchise. Outside of those who know internet culture nobody's gonna know who she is. This thread is full of people who spend time on the internet and even a lot of them didn't know what Touhou was until her diehards broguht her up in Smash speculation. She's a little too Japan-only to be a viable DLC slot. Furthermore, of the few games that ARE on the Switch, Nintendo has never shown them in any of their directs, showing that Nintendo has no interest in advertising or promoting them. Overall, Reimu's got her big merits but still has a localization mountain to climb. If you want an ACTUAL Japan centric but still western-known girl, SEGA's got you covered.

Want: 5% - Firstly, competition for Quote, so tons of points off right off the bat. Reimu's a character I have a very....complicated...history with. as my waifu for awhile back when I was into the series and I was in the right place at the right time (a couple of my friends were into it, and along with that I'm a longtime Raocow fan, and his community was really into it at the time) but I never really enjoyed the games themselves. I spent more time playing the spinoffs like MegaMari or Super Marisa World than actual main-series Touhou games (I really don't like bullet hell). So I liked a lot of the side content but grew tired of it as it felt more forced and he community got worse and worse. Let's not forget the terrible jokes, who the h*** wants to hear about nineballs, donations, and breasts pads all the time? Now, one thing I always did enjoy the music, especially some of the lesser-praised pieces like Phantom Ensamble. And I appriciate that it now has a couple of games on Nintendo systems. But as a whole, Touhou is a franchise with a lot of unfortunate baggage for me, baggage that I'd rather not be reminded of via Smash. Now, it's nowhere near the worst, that dishonor goes to a much MUCH worse franchise (one that doesn't have the legacy, yet by chances took away a lot of Touhou's fans to the point of causing conflict), and I wouldn't be seething with anger if she were revealed (that's reserved for Byleth-esque reveals, ones that mock you for not liking them), if anything I'd just kinda laugh it off. Touhou's another High School discovery, so it also has a wistful sense of nostalgia to it. But she's not someone I'd want to see in over Quote.


Nominations:
4x Strategy rep x5
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5

Predictions:
Adol - 10.83% - LEAK BIAS AHOY!
Ryu Hayabusa - 68.82% - Nothing really ever changes for Ryu, so I'm expecting him to get his usual scores.
 
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zriL

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For Touhou songs, maybe that would have been better not to use 2 songs that are meme songs out of 3 songs... The worst is those two songs are from the same doujin artist.
What's even worse is that this Flandre video is confusing because it's not a "full version", just a remix. This video has already been a source of confusion for 12 years, so it's hardly a good entry point.
 
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sessian

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Dec 19, 2020
Messages
15
Yeah, there's a bunch of games on the Switch.
Well, mostly fan games, which some people contest the validity of - though the nature of Touhou makes those fan games a smidge more relevant than in other IPs.

A Switch port of Antinomy of Common Flowers, the latest official fighting game, was announced quite a while ago but still doesn't have a release date.

Reimu has also recently made an official Switch appearance in a non-Touhou game, as a party member in one of the 3DS Taiko no Tatsujin RPG ports (alongside Marisa and Sakuya, not to mention reps of several other franchises). I believe the Groove Coaster game on Switch also has a Reimu outfit/skin for its avatar character.
 

DanganZilla5

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I'm gonna spare you all the obvious joke, as it will already be quoted a lot.

Chance: 15%

If we are getting an indie character, my money is on either Quote or Reimu. Let's talk about Quote first. Cave Story is the quintessential indie game. While it's not the first indie game, it was the one to show the potential of indie games and prove that one-person teams can hold up to the big studios. It's the reason why indie games exploded in popularity throughout the 2000s and early 2010s. It certainly has the pedigree to be the first indie game to get a rep in Smash (Or second, depending on how you feel about Steve, though I don't think his inclusion directly affects Quote). What also helps Quote out is that he was created in Japan so no language barrier either. For indies in general, I do have a little more confidence in them since they haven't been given the Mii costume treatment in a while, though that is still the biggest thing they have and is the thing that holds me back from giving this guy a higher score. Overall, I do think that if we are getting an indie character, it will happen in this pass. I just have a feeling. But faith can only do so much.

Want: 60%

Honestly I've tried Cave Story out and it's not my thing. I am planning on giving it another try one day but right now it's not a priority for me. With that said, it's Cave Story. Out of all indie games, it's the one that deserves it the most with it being the father of indie games and influencing so many iconic and popular games. If it wasn't for Cave Story, we might not have games like Super Meat Boy or Fez and for that I give it major props. Even if I don't have a lot of attachment to the game, I will certainly welcome it and I can say that the moveset, stage, and music will be enjoyable.

_____________________

bullet hell girl

Chance: 15%

Touhou is huge in Japan, with it having over 20 games, fan conventions up the ying yang, and countless fan creations. ZUN is very chill with how the series is handled and thus would be very easy and affordable to work with. There are several unofficial Touhou games that have been released for consoles like the Switch and PS4. One big thing to point out is that out of the mainline games, only 1 game to my knowledge has been officially released outside of Japan, and even then it has no English translation. This is because ZUN has said that he knows the fans will translate the games for him (Which is correct).

Now, let's discuss the elephant in the room: Touhou is obscure everywhere outside of Japan. The fact that ZUN refuses to release most of the games outside of Japan really hurts the recognizability of the franchise. Outside of a dedicated fanbase, it is niche and not too many people know about it. We all know that Sakurai rejected Takamaru for being too obscure internationally so this is a big hurdle indeed. I do think it has what it takes to possibly overcome this obstacle due to its sheer popularity, but it's a big hurdle nonetheless.

Want: 60%

I have yet to try out a Touhou game. I've been meaning to but I just have not focused on buying games for my PC since it's **** and many of the spinoffs don't seem appealing. So why am I giving it over a 50? One word: Music. With the nature of Touhou and it's lax use by fans, we would definitely get a lot of music, maybe even more music than Terry. There is so much Touhou music and a lot of the songs are bangers. So yeah, I would be down with this, not to mention it would introduce a new genre too.

Predictions:
Ryu - 45%
Adol - 55%

Noms:
Among Us character x10
Excitebiker x10
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Abstaining on Quote since my bias for the other Indie metroidvania might affect my rating too much.

Raymu
Chance: 8%
Huge in Japan. Influencial in gaming. ZUN requires barely any negotiating. I've heard it and I get it but despite it all I still think Reimu is a bit too lacking in worldwide appeal to be granted a Challenger pack. On that field you can certainly do worse than Reimu but you also can do alot better. While there are quite a few Touhou games on Switch (not sure if it's all fan games or if they're localized btw) Nintendo (atleast not NOA or NOE) does not seem to give much attention to the series. They still haven't bothered to advertise it trough a Direct or the likes and that's what kills her chances for me. I could see her positives resulting in a Mii Costume but joining the roster is another beast.

Want: 0%

Touhou is a franchise that looks like too big of a rabbit hole for me to want to dipp my toes in. Not to mention the general tone and aesthetic of the series isn't my cup of tea. And while Touhou certainly differs from Indie games as we know them today, I'd still rather avoid the risk of her being HK competition.

Adol: 16.22%
Hayabusa: 57.59%
Henry Stickmin x Max
 

Sari

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That guy who used to be my profile pic

Chance: 15%
If we're getting an indie character then I think it's going to be Quote or Reimu. Some might count Steve as an indie though I personally don't since although Minecraft may have started out as one, it has since evolved into something much bigger and got into Smash because of that.

The biggest hurdle for Quote is the fact that he's technically owned by Nicalis which is a Western company. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the internal issues with Nicalis would affect Quote's chances that much. The Kotaku article where they got publicly exposed was released in September 2019 (most likely after the FP2 lineup was decided on) plus we still got Castlevania characters despite Konami being just as bad if not worse than Nicalis. Also if Nintendo's actions this year alone are anything to go by then I seriously doubt they would care about the toxicity at all.

Cave Story is still widely influential and a classic of the indie genre that I can see Quote getting in by that alone.

Want: 100%
What other score were you expecting from me? Cave Story is one of my favorite games as well as my single favorite indie title. It combines fun Metroidvania gameplay with a surprisingly dark story that it is a must play for just about everyone. The story behind the creation of the game where it was made by a single person over the course of 5 years is also something that I really admire. Yes I know Nicalis is an awful company but I'm willing to look past that since Quote is Pixel's creation and not theirs. Quote is easily among my top 5 most wanted Smash characters both for Ultimate as well as Smash in general.

-----

Abstaining on Reimu

-----

Adol chance prediction: 25.70%
Hayabusa chance prediction: 42.00%

-----

Nominations:
Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/echo x5
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass x5
Akuma x5
 

BowserKing

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Quote

Chance: 15%. Quote is one of the more likely indie reps to get in, due to a legacy Cave Story made. However, indies have a slight record of being spirits and/Mii Costumes, and while Steve first appearered in a Indie game, Minecraft later got owned by Microsoft. With that said, Quote still has a chance of showing up.

Want: 55%. I prefer Shantae and Shovel Knight as the indie reps, but Quote would still be fun to play as. Overall, Quote would make a decent choice of a Smash Bros rep.

Reimu

Chance: 15%. Just like Cave Story, Touhou has quite the bit of indie game legacy. Reimu would also have some uniqueness in the game too, but just like Quote, Reimu also have a possibility of being a Spirit and/or Mii Costumes, but she still has a chance.

Want: 55%. She would be a fun character to play as, and I can see her fight characters like Joker, Fox and Inkling in a free for all. But overall, Reimu has decent potential to be a Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Adol (15%) and Ryu (25%)

Noms: 5 for Giygas and 5 for Boss: Rayquaza
 
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