Diabolus ex machina
Chance: 37%
Alright, full disclosure time: I'm a huge SMT fan and I've been anticipating this day, probably even more than the ones I've nominated. So here goes my rant.
Shin Megami Tensei's history is long and lasting. Its origins actually stem from the Digital Devil Story series of books. A videogame (actually two, but we'll come back to this later) was made by Atlus, with the input of the writer of the novels and taking the name of the first one - Digital Devil Story: Megami Tensei. I haven't read the books, but from my research I gathered that the plot is an adaptation of two of them, making this a rare case of videogames adapted from literature (like The Witcher, Parasite Eve, and I guess Castlevania).
Now, remember what I said about there actually being two videogames? Well, one of them, for PC was an unremarkable action RPG. But the Famicom version? That's a dungeon crawling RPG, where you recruit demons to your cause, and fight alongside them as party members. That's right, Megami Tensei pioneered monster catching as a mechanic, a decade before Pokémon (technically Dragon Quest V did monster catching first, but it didn't stick around. Megami Tensei was the first franchise to build itself around this mechanic). The Famicom version was a hit, leading to a sequel (DDS: MTII). After that came the third game, Shin Megami Tensei.
Some consider Shin Megami Tensei to be a spin-off of the main Megami Tensei games. Personally, I view it as a sequel, much like how Metal Gear Solid is just the sequel to Metal Gear 1 & 2 (the similarity even extends to Shin Megami Tensei working as a pseudo remake of Megami Tensei II, just like MGS and Metal Gear 2). Either way, Shin Megami Tensei codified the tropes that would define the franchise: a moral conflict between Law and Chaos, with YHVH and Lucifer as the opposing forces, a post-apocalyptic setting (Tokyo in particular), demon fusing, the works. It released for the Super Famicom in 1992. Sequel Shin Megami Tensei II and spin-off Shin Megami Tensei If followed later, both for the same console. SMT If is notable for its high school setting and characters, which spawned the idea for the Persona games (in fact the female protagonist from If is featured in P3, implying the two series are canon to each other).
After a hiatus mostly filled by the various spinoff franchises, SMT made a comeback with mediocre and forgotten side game SMT Nine, and also a little game called Shin Megami Tensei III: Nocturne. Nocturne was the first foray of the main series into the West, and an attempt to widen the series' appeal, and by all accounts it was a success. It got great reviews, sold well both in Japan and outside, Dante was in it, all the works. That was the series' big break, and ironically after years of loyalty to Nintendo's systems it was on the PS2. After Nocturne came SMT Imagine, an MMO; but more importantly, the next three mainline entries in the series, Strange Journey, IV and Apocalypse, were all made for and exclusive to Nintendo handhelds. As will be Shin Megami Tensei V, which was announced alongside the Switch and whose sole other piece of marketing was on a Nintendo Direct (as another thing to note, with Nocturne's remaster being on the Switch, this means every mainline game is on Nintendo systems).
So the first thing I want to point out is how Nintendo the series is. It started on Nintendo, was Nintendo exclusive for most of its run. And whilst Persona has been PlayStation exclusive for a long while now, Shin Megami Tensei finds itself as the Nintendo counterpart of its younger sibling. So the series has both a long history with Nintendo and a current relationship and an upcoming game to promote. Hmm, why does this sound familiar? (Hint: it rhymes with Flagon Chest)
The next thing I want to point out is how influential and iconic it is. Without mincing words, it's Pokemon before Pokémon. Now of course, I'm not going to go so far as to credit it for everything Pokémon did, the two series differ greatly and most of Pokémon's strengths are its own, but still, SMT proved it could work and succeed. Even aside from the monster catching element, many of its gameplay staples like negotiating with enemies, demon/monster fusing, and moral alignments have found their way to other games, as has its pioneering use of modern day Tokyo as a setting. Many of the characters and demons from the series have become iconic, the most famous example being Jack Frost, who became Atlus' mascot.
With all this said, I think Shin Megami Tensei has what it takes to get a playable character in Smash. You may point out that Joker, from Persona, kills SMT's chances. I'll acknowledge that Persona getting a fighter means that a character from its main series would be redundant in some respects, and it's not like Sega's hurting for other franchises that could get the nod. However, I'll argue that there's still room for both. For one, Joker plays nothing like a Shin Megami Tensei character - or, in fact, like Joker himself - so there's still room for a true SMT moveset in Smash. And also, the reasons for inclusion would be different. Joker's the iconic protagonist of a recent PlayStation game which won awards, sold a ton, and broke into the mainstream. In contrast, a hypothetical SMT rep wouldn't stand for any single character or game, but rather a long legacy of influential and acclaimed titles, a reward for Nintendo loyalty, and a dash of promotion. Music, stages, spirits, none of them are from SMT, so there isn't any overlap in that regard. All in all, Joker's the biggest barrier for this series, but the road to Smash is clear.
Now, how would a character from this series play? Well, the majority of protagonists in SMT use swords and guns, so that would probably feature in any moveset (even Demi-fiend, who doesn't wield any weapons, can use sword- and gun-like skills with his Magatama). But of course, the main hook of the series is getting demons to do your bidding. That could take many forms, such as conjuring up different demons for individual attacks, to having some kind of special system to pick between several potential summons, to an outright stance switch where you can pick a demon to fight alongside you (the latter's probably unrealistic for DLC though). Whatever the case, it's a perfect fit for a summoner-type moveset, and given it's the series that popularized using monsters as party members it's very fitting. I also read someone's suggestion of implementing the alignment system, where you schew towards Law or Chaos as the battle goes and that affects your stats or the moves at your disposal. I don't know how this would be implemented specifically, but it's too cool not to mention.
Now, who could be the rep chosen? There's several ways they could go.
The easiest call is probably Demi-fiend. He's the most iconic protagonist, from what's probably the most successful game in the franchise. With the port, he has relevance on his side as well. The only point against him is that if they want to emphasize SMT's history with Nintendo, picking the guy from the one game that didn't debut on a Nintendo console is probably the worst choice. Demi-fiend stands out from the other protagonists in terms of design and abilities, so if he got in he could have a really tailor-made movese making use of Nocturne's specific mechanics. Nocturne's also my least favorite game in the series so he's the pick that would let me down the most.
The guy from V: we know nearly nothing about SMTV except the way its protagonist looks. Still, it's a Nintendo exclusive title that's up for release in 2021, so we could totally be looking at another Luminary.
Flynn: The samurai protagonist of Shin Megami Tensei IV, he has recency and Nintendo presence on his side. SMTIV is the most successful title after III, and so it strikes a good balance of being popular, having Western familiarity, and being on Nintendo. I guess you could say he's the Terra or Lloyd of Shin Megami Tensei.
Strange Journey guy: no way he gets in solo, but I love Strange Journey and this is easily the best protagonist design imo. Just wanted to mention that.
Nanashi: technically the most recent protagonist, from Apocalypse, the sequel to IV. But recency's about to abandon him, and even then being from a sequel rather than a full on new mainline title would make him akin to picking, like, Yuna.
The first two protagonists are probably not getting picked, they're pretty old and not too iconic or popular. I guess there's an argument to be made that they'll pick the first one a la Marth, but I don't see it.
Could there be a Hero situation where several characters share a moveset? Yeah, totally. Moveset is not an issue, especially if they focus solely on the summoning aspect to the detriment of sword and gunplay. Personality wise, they're all silent and serious; there are differences but nothing that would make them sharing animations weird or out of character. The only caveats are that Demi-fiend would need a different idle animation if the others had their swords out (there are workarounds for this, but if they can't figure it out they won't do it, Demi-fiend and Flynn are the two protagonists that would 100% be in a Hero situation); and that Demi-fiend and Nanashi don't use the series' trademark COMP (a wrist-worn terminal used to summon demons through a computer program – it's an awesome franchise you guys), so that would also require alternate animations. Personally I think this is the best case scenario as Demi-fiend and Nocturne stray from several of the series' iconic elements, so a purely Nocturne-focused representation would miss out on many of those elements – but at the same time, you can't not have Nocturne, so this is a good compromise. If I had to bet on 4 characters to feature in a Hero-style thing, it would probably be the protagonists of I, II, III and IV, so Aleph, Flynn, Demi-fiend, and the guy from I. The guy from I is probably the one that could be replaced by the one from V, the one from Strange Journey (yay!) or Nanashi, as they have more unique designs, but being from the first game could help land him the spot (then again, it didn't matter for Dragon Quest, so maybe it's Strange Journey time babyyy)
We know they can go the Hero route, but will they? To put it bluntly, it depends on whether they really want to promote V, either by featuring its protagonist or the series' legacy as a selling point. If they do, then yeah, we'll get the catch-all moveset, but if they don't, it's Demi-fiend's spot to lose (unless they go Chaotic Evil and just pick the V protagonist, solo - or unless I possess Sakurai for a day, and we get Strange Journey man).
Want: 90%
I can't explain why I like this franchise so much. It's not something you'd expect me to like; I'm a very religious person, so one would think that a game in which God is kinda the bad guy would rub me the wrong way. But its philosophical and moral depth and nuance, its amazing characters and settings, its absurdly inventive, fun and engaging mechanics, that **** just draws you in. The games draw from tons of cool stuff, from Nietzsche to Lovecraft to the Old Testament, they don't shy away from showing and addressing shocking and controversial themes and issues. They're just wholly unique and one of a kind. Bottom line is even if it doesn't end up with a fighter in Smash, you should still play V when it comes out. You'll probably enjoy it, and if you don't at least you'll have helped us poor SMT fans get a sequel.
Nominations: Jason and SOPHIA x10
Prediction: oh **** I have to do the new schedule
Nominate Adol Christin x5. I'll be leaving RTC for the most part after Klonoa, so someone take up the noms for Adol in my place, please.
I'll take up the task, my Lord.
