Ooooh boy, here we go.
I Serve.....a higher authority.
Chance: 50%
While im not confident in putting Geno above this chance, this is still pretty damn ****ing high in my book. This easily could go either way. Why?
Geno is a unique case, and i do mean, unique case. There's no other character like him. In Paper, this sounds like a laugable position to be in. A one shot character from a Rpg Spin-Off whose main genre is Platformer, and is owned by a third party company outside of Nintendo's control. Why him out of all Mario characters? Waluigi has appeared in almost Every Spin Off game and has been an Assist Since Brawl and is probably one of the more requested characters in Smash nowadays, Paper Mario represents his own subseries and has a complete identity of his own, and Toad is one of the most iconic gaming characters in general. Why him?
Reason 1: Sakurai's own preference.
I firmly believe this is a thing, but why would i believe it would affect Geno? In 2016 we found out Sakurai actually considered for Brawl, albeit only shortly and never seriously went for it, let alone made it to the planning stage.
"What led you to decide to make a Geno costume after all this time?
Sakurai: To tell the truth, it’s because I wanted Geno to be a playable character. He has a gun for a hand, and I think he fits in really well with Smash. During Brawl, I thought it would be great if I could add him, but in the end it didn’t become a reality.
—Because of that, you added him as a Mii Costume this time?
Sakurai: That’s right. He’s very popular. When talking about older characters, Geno always gets a lot of requests. He didn’t appear as a fighter, but I was able to achieve something kind of close to that as a Mii Costume."
Usually the story would end there, but one has to realize, Geno is heavily associated with Smash DESPITE the fact that before Smash 4's Mii Costume he was nowhere to be found. Most people that were on the Brawl days can attest to Geno, while not the most wanted one, was at least heavily mentioned those days (which i don't quite understand why exactly it was so big, Mario RPG wouldn't be released on the WII VC until AFTER the release of Brawl)
In Smash 4 as i mentioend his support was dwindling, he could have suffered the same fate as other Smash Character "bandwagons" as Zoroark, but as i mentioned above the whole Sakurai considered Geno for Brawl and Mii Costume, which is absolutely ****ing bonkers when you think about it. You got Square Enix and make a deal for Cloud in Smash, and out of all the characters you could chose for a Mii Costume to go alongside it are a Chocobo which is expected and.......a one shot character from a 1996 spin off?
That, to me shows that Sakurai has a soft spot for the guy, and while that doesn't make him guarantee, it shows potential that in the right circumstances he might get a chance. I do believe Geno did well enough on the Ballot, hence his Mii Costume appereance, and seeing how the other Mii Costumes that got into playable status were K.Rool (another fellow character who was really popular among hardocre Smash circles) Isabelle (a character who was really popular among casual circles) and Chrom (a mixture of both, although this was when FE wasn't oversatured and had like........2 characters)
Sakurai likes something? He puts it in the game. Sakurai likes SNK? There you go, Terry. Sakurai likes Castlevania? There you go, Simon and Richter. Etc. (for this same reason, i also see Rex happening) No matter if it takes a long time for it to happen, Sakurai can get his way.
2-Mii Costume Missing.
Yeah that's another thing i forgot to mention, his Mii Costume is missing. I said in Porky's day that absence of something does not mean it will come later. Heihachi was considered by Sakurai and still came back a costume in Ultimate. BUT, Sakurai mentioned Heihachi beign hard to work for a moveset. That's one thing Geno has at his advantage is that when he was mentioned that Geno would be an easy character to integrate. If Sakurai had him in mind this long ago and had the chance to at least give him a Nod in Smash 4, i could see him making it now. Also i do believe we would have seen the Geno Mii Costume by now. Maybe not Hero, but seeing how Sans was Part of Banjo's pack of all places i don't see why Geno has to come exclusively to a Square related character. Could have been Byleth or Min-Min if they wanted to.
Hell, even Ridley, despite having a far bigger resume than Geno, had to wait a long ass time because Sakurai dind't just cared enough to make a moveset out of him. Too Big and **** you know?. Geno's problem do not rely on Sakurai's lack of interest but instead legal issues. If Geno dind's suffered from Legal Issues we could have seen him in Smash by now.
We also know Spirits don't cecomfirm thanks to Min-Min's reveal, so no NPC role is stopping him as of now.
3-He has become the manifestation of the desires of the hardcore Smash community.
How many of you know Geno as "The guy people really wanted in Brawl"? i certaintly knew him that way. It's true that some characters like Isaac and Krystal were more popular and requested in the Brawl days than him, but his popularity has cemented him as one of the characters people want but never seem to happen, like K.Rool and Ridley. Is it revisonism history? To an extent yes, Geno actually is more talked about Now than he was in the Smash 4 days when his fanbase decimated (and maybe even the Brawl days too) but because so many other characters have made it in since the Brawl days, he comes across as this Super Requested character that never made it yet, mostly because the whole relevance thing was never a issue for him (Isaac and Krystal relied on relevance of their series to get in, and didn't work and their fanbases slowly dwindled) his fanbase, whatever be the reason has lasted a long time. I mean yeah the Interview about Sakurai revied interest in him, but it's hella likely that Geno's fanbase was still big, just silent.
Some people have mentioned Nintendo choosing the characters and that somehow makes him impossible now. While it could be an issue, i get reminded of the whole Banjo situation. Banjo was a character that a lot of people saw unlikely. He was dead for a decade and had to compete against Steve, the main guy from the best selling game on the planet. How would he stand a chance?
A tweet. A ****ing tweet. That caused a chain reaction in which everybody suddently was talking about Banjo in Smash. While it was too late for it to affect Smash 4, it certaintly affected Ultimate's DLC choices. If that burst of support could affect a Smash roster, then i could see Geno doing something similar. This is a character who is heavily associated with Smash as a whole, unlike Banjo, Geno's request were manifested in a vocal manner over a decade ago, and Sakurai actually took notice.
The 2 main franchises of Square Enix: Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest (which obviously took priority over Geno), have now playable reps in Smash and a lot of characters who were far more popular than Geno have made it in (K.Rool, Ridley, Little Mac, Palutena) while others dwindled (Isaac, Ashley, Takamaru, Krystal) so once you down the totem poll of requests, he becomes one of the most popular and talked about by default. It's the opposite of Dixie really, while she was seen as unlikely and that meant she lack requests, the opposite is true for Geno.
While a lot of people argue for having characters that try to appeal to demographics outside of the usual Smash fandom like Reimu, or Saber, or Chief there's also an argument to be made to add characters that appeal to the hardocore crowd, which i firmly believe was one of the reasons for Banjo's inlcusion (compare him to the rest of the Pass, the rest of them appeal to demographics that are usually outside of the normal Smash or even Nintendosphere) for every Wii Fit Trainer and Isabelle, there's a Mega Man and K.Rool. I don't believe Fighter Pass 2 is gonna be fanservice, but i do see that they may want to add a character that appeals to that old-school crowd like Bajno in Fighter Pass 1. Not a pattern, a possibility.
As for reason for his exclusion? Look i could argue about his lack of relevance and importance but if im honest if that really mattered i think Geno woulnd't even be a spirit. He's the Shonen Protagonist Of Characters, no matter how absurd the situation is, this stubborn son of a ***** will simply not die. You gotta admire that.
I guess there's other Square characters, but outside of the other one we are rating now, i don't see any of them getting in. Chrono is dead (i mean it was Super Mario RPG that was on the SNES classic, not CT) Neku was pretty much also dead until recently, i don't see him beign talked about nowhere as Geno or any other character for Smash and i think his return to relevance is far too late to affect his chances now, same goes for 2B who is also barely talked about, and is not Gex Night tonight so sorry Gex. Yes Lara is a super mega big icon of gaming, but beign a best selling franchise and beign super mainstream does not make you more likely. Otherwise we would have gotten Leon S. Kennedy over Mega Man, Power Pro Baseball guy over Simon, Steve over Banjo, and Arle Nadja and Kiryu over Bayonetta.
Of course this could all mean nothing and instead he comes back as a Mii Costume, but hey, it can go either way in my eyes.
TL;DR Out of all the many Smash requests across time, Geno is one of the few who have managed to hold itself tgether so long, so much so they were actually notcied by Sakurai. and unlike another ones i mentioned, they actually managed to still be alive and kicking to this day. If there's any character that could follow up Ridley and K.Rool, not in terms of iconic characters whitin their own series, but in terms of having a strong following from hardcore members of the fanbase that could push him into playable status
, it's this guy and probably no one else.
Want: 70%
Sure why not? I gotta admit, back in the Smash 4 days i would not have wanted him, but things have changed a bit now. Now everybody just requests whoever they like (Joker, PP, Bayo) and again, compared to all the other requests that i have seen......yeah again another Grich Hero better than what we will likely be getting. I played SMRPG and he is a fun char, i can see why people would like his moveset in Smash. I ended up loving Simon, K.Rool, Ridley and Even Banjo, so i except him to deliver a fun moveset.
Are there characters that "Deserve it" more than Geno? Absolutely. I believe the likes of Bandanna Dee, Dixie Kong, Bomberman, Toad, Isaac, and a RH character would be more logical, but some things that should happen simply don't. and if we can't get the likes of those, at least give me someone i can enjoy and appereciate.
Also just because a character i think should be in Smash doesn't mean i would like to play as them. I firmly believe Toad should have been since Brawl, but if i were to chose him or Geno, i would lie if i dind't say that Geno was more interesing.
I would not be super salty if we don't get him, but god he sounds fun.
Abstaining on Sora tonight, might do tomorrow.
, the idea of a Castlevania character, 
