Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sari]

Some Half-Life songs to get into the crowbar swinging mood:

Spoiler: Half-Life Music

Some TF2 songs to get into the queuing for a competitive match mood:

Spoiler: TF2 Music

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on a full write-up since we recently rated Gordon and circumstances haven't changed at all for a Valve rep. The company has absolutely no relationship with Nintendo and Valve's games aren't popular in Japan. Very simple and straightforward. Valve is also heavily PC-based, and PC gaming has very little influence in Japan. As between Gordon and Heavy, Gordon wins in the iconic department, along with having a much heavier influence on the gaming industry. Alyx also came out recently, which gives him recency (though the game itself being PC VR exclusive has a VERY limited audience despite the HL2-esque modding revolution people thought would occur ). Meanwhile the Heavy wins out by far in the fan demand department (isn't he super wanted in Europe?), along with the cartoon nature of his game being a better fit for Smash. While neither are likely at all, both have merits that make it difficult to see who'd be the one chosen.

Another point on Valve and Nintendo's relationship, yes there was the cancelled Half Life Tactics, but if they really did make some kind of deal and Valve just dropped the ball, then that can't exactly be a good first impression for company relations. Plus despite all of the praise Gabe gives for Nintendo, he's never bothered to port ANY of his games to Nintendo systems. If there was any kind of working relationship we would've seen something by now, but until we actually see a Valve game on a Nintendo system, I'm going to say their relationship is almost nonexistent. People say Nintendo history doesn't matter anymore, with Snake, Cloud, and Joker, but what do they have in common that Valve doesn't have? GOOD RELATIONSHIPS. Kojima has a good relationship with Sakurai, Square Enix and Nintendo had a strong relationship in the leadup to Cloud, Atlus and Nintendo have always had a good relationship through Shin Megami Tensei, so Nintendo granted them their most recent protagonist. And even with Banjo, Minecraft had to be the bridge that forged the relationship between Nintendo and Microsoft. Bethesda supported the Switch from the beginning and now we have a Vault Boy Mii Costume with possibly more Bethesda content to come. There has to be some kind of positive working relationship, and right now Valve just doesn't have this. I find it a little silly that some people are giving Gordon 30-40% chance scores when this need for a good working relationship has proven many times to be essential.

As for want, I have no connection to Valve's games and never cared about them (or the Gabe Newell hero worship of 2008-2012), so I can't see myself having any desire for a Valve rep. Plus I want to see them forge some kind of relationship with Nintendo before making their debut in Smash.

Heavy:
Chance: 3%
Want: 5%

Gordon:
Chance: 5%
Want: 1%

Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Reimu - 20.43% - Expecting a LOT of people to overrate her chances. Though not as bad as the first time we rated her
Arle - 25.75% - Nothing much has changed for her circumstances but I expect her to be given some decent scores. Solid shot but nothing massive.

 

[DanganZilla5]

*Insert Valve can't count to 3 joke here*..oh yeah this applies to both characters so Gordon first.

Chance: 10%

I can see this happening. Sakurai has actually praised Half Life before (I'm getting tired so I won't bother posting a source but it should be found quickly). Steam is also recognizable around the world, including Japan despite the fact that PC gaming is not popular over there. Gabe Newell himself also said in the past that he would allow Gordon in Smash. Really, the big hurdles here are Half Life having no Nintendo history and Valve rarely, if ever, collaborating with Nintendo. Gordon himself is also not very requested, certainly not to the extent of the community stars like Phoenix Wright or Bandana Dee. Still, Half Life is very important to the gaming industry and is iconic. I'm not betting on it but I can see Gordon being one of the candidates as a Joker/Cloud type surprise.

Want: 75%

Iconic games with great music and imaginative environments. Heck, I would like to see Gordon announced based on the fact that the internet would probably explode due to his inclusion. It would also be nice to get PC representation and Half Life is the type of game that should get into Smash at some point.

________________

I'm not familiar with any specific TF2 meme so insert one here

Chance: 6%

I think Gordon is more likely due to Sakurai directly praising Half Life and the game being overall more influential. But TF2 is no slouch either. One of the great, iconic Valve games that helped popularize online shooters. The style and humor of TF2 also makes it a good fit for Smash. Heavy is certainly one of the more popular and requested characters from the game too. Though he does face competition from other notable characters like the Scout who could provide more moveset potential. Not much for me to say here other than he could be a potential darkhorse pick.

Want: 65%

I've played TF2 before. The environments would make for an interesting, dynamic stage and some of the music is memorable. The idea of a heavyweight character that focuses on range is interesting and I'm curious to see how that would look like (I feel like I'm forgetting someone). But when it comes to Valve characters, I would be more hyped for Gordon.


Predictions:
Arle - 25%
Reimu - 20%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[SharkLord]

Gordon Freeman:
Chance: 40%. He's a very iconic character and Sakurai has praised Half-Life before, so there's some precedent. On the other hand, he and his main platform-PCs-don't have much footing in Japan, and Valve hasn't had much interaction with Nintendo. I'd mention the lack of requests, but Joker and Terry exist, so...
Want: 40%. I'm sure he'd be cool, but I don't have too much attachment to him. Not much more to say.
Heavy:
It pains me to say this, but 0%. You see, there is a major blockade that keeps Heavy from appearing in Smash, or anything, for that matter. Because, you see... Heavy is Dead.

Okay, but for real now.
Chance: 40%. On one hand, he's not as iconic as Freeman. On the other, he's a very popular request. Other than that, it mostly boils down to if Valve is open to a fighter, which I went over above with Freeman-Lack of PC foothold in Japan, lack of Nintendo relations.
Want: 60%. I don't know too much about TF2, but Heavy sounds like a fun, hilarious fighter. Plus, a couple of my friends like TF2, and that'll make them happy. Also, I want people to recreate Heavy is Dead with the cast of Smash Bros.

Predictions:
Arle: 37.65%
Reimu: 48.98%
I'm really tempted to argue in Reimu favor right now, but I'll have to wait.

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Jomosensual]

We just rated Gordon so here's him again

The man who played God in that one movie

Chance 4 - Positives here are that Half Life is pretty popular. Valve/Steam are pretty well known as well. Gordon would have a pretty fun and likely unique moveset as well. So the negitives. First, we have no PC characters in the game yet. As far as PC gaming goes I think League of Legends is by far the most likely series to be repped so that's a big knock. Valve is also based out of Washington(the state) in the USA, which makes them western developers. The competition for that is really rough and it's likely we get 0 western reps in this pass, which is a shame but it's how it is. Overall theres a lot that should go in the favor for Mr Freeman but there's so much in his way right now that it's tough for me to see this happening. Also competition from his own developers is pretty tough since Heavy from TF2 is one of the most requested characters in Europe right now.

Want 60 - Never touched half life, but I know it's very popular and from what I do know, Gordon looks like he'd be fun to play as. He would be a really good inclusion to the game and a perfect choice for DLC

Heavy

Chance 20 - Think there's a small shot here since he's one of the more highly requested characters from the UK/Europe. Trails behind League of Legends for a PC gaming rep IMO though. Not sure how unqiue he'd be since I've never played Team Fortress but he seems like he'd be pretty different so that's a small plus for him too

Want 50 - I'd rather see LoL get in first since my brother is a huge fan but I wouldn't mind this happening at all. He seems like he'd be fairly fun to play as.

Predictions
Arle - 35%
Reimu - 25%

Noms
Riptor x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain again. I'm just tired as well.

Arle: 50%
Reimu: 0%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain, Chell is the only Valve character I'd be interested in. Imagine a stage where Glados chastises the roster. But Heavy interests me more than Gordon

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5.

 

[SSGuy]

Let me first start by saying Valve (In their prime) is one of my favorite Developers of all time. Every game in the late 2000s can be considered a masterpiece. And even though they might be a shell of their former self more than a decade later, they still manage to innovate and push the limits of gaming to this day. So a Valve character normally tops my most wanted list for Western characters. (I'm actually playing TF2C as we speak)

Gordon Freeman

Chance: 25% - I think if Valve were to add a character into Smash, this would be the one to get the nod. Back in the day, the Half Life games are probably the most discussed game under Valve's banner whether it is serious discussion or memes asking for Half Life 3. However, Nintendo has shown very little of a relationship with Valve, with only one time Nintendo provided a dev-kit on a Prototype Switch to Valve. And while Valve and Gabe Newell has commented on how much they really like the Switch hardware, there has yet to be any sign of them collaborating or making something for Nintendo. Not saying that in itself makes it impossible, just more improbable.

Want: 80% - Gordon would be great. A lot of his iconic weapons like a crow bar would fit into Smash Bros very well without seeming too stale or rehashed of an idea. They could also make use of his HEV suit as apart of his character. Ideas like that seem really neat.

Heavy Weapons Guy

Chance: 15% - I really love this guy but I think he falls third on the Valve hierarchy list as I think seeing Gordon and Chell more of a possibility for Valve's first character. (As someone who has Geno as his most wanted, I've been thru this.) The off chance Heavy does get the nod is still there, but there would have to be this massive fan demand for Heavy over the other two which I don't normally see. I certainly think I see more Heavy supporters, but not to the point that I would say he's massively requested over the other two.

Want: 100% - I love Team Fortress 2. It is 2nd on my all time favorite games list behind Brawl (will be Ultimate if things go right in the DLC) I am definitely down for Heavy Weapons Guy or any class from Team Fortress 2 to becoming a playable character in Smash Bros. (Okay, maybe Saxton Hale is too powerful to be considered playable in Smash but still) My only concern with Heavy Weapons Guy being the character is that out of the entire roster of TF2, he has always had the least potential and most linear play style. But that is more than made up for picturing the possibility of just being a Friendly Hoovy on the battlefield for no reason aside from just looking silly. (My other choice would be Scout at the expense of getting Sonic 2.0)

One last note I wanted to add about TF2 in Smash. While I don't think the odds of getting a playable character are that great, I do think a Mii Costume of Rick May's class, the Soldier might be the best thing they could possibly do. So even though this kind of breaks the rules, I want this to more or less add this in.

TF2 Soldier Mii Costume

Chance: 40% - A mii costume for Valve seems a lot more plausible for me in my book. The addition of Vault Boy and potentially more from Bethesda really does make it seem more of a possibility to include a costume for Team Fortress 2.

Want: 100% - What a way to hour Rick May and his amazing role of being a voice actor for both Valve and Nintendo. I think a Brawler would fit him the best but part of me also wants to see a Sword fighter just to see him destroying people with a shovel. This kind of gesture/tribute would bring just as much emotion out of me as seeing Geno becoming playable.

Future Nomination:

x5 I want to revisit Rhythm Heaven/Karate Joe

 

[GoodGrief741]

Quoting my previous rating for the free man because it's so recent I don't even have to edit noms

Chance: 1%
I'm giving this chance score because I don't think we're getting a character that has never been on a Nintendo system, from a series that has never been on a Nintendo system, by a developer that has never made games for a Nintendo system. Does Gordon have what it takes to be the first to break that precedent? Sure. Half-Life revolutionized not just FPSes, but the way games are designed as a whole, from physics, to worldbuilding, its a masterclass in game design. ****, Alyx might just be another breakthrough, and if we ever look back from the future to see where VR became viable to make games of the same caliber as the regular ones, it's likely that Alyx will be that milestone. But I honestly don't have the brainpower right now to give a better number of how likely I feel Gordon is, especially given all he's going against. Like amageish once said, you rate an underdog as an underdog, not as if they were already the champ.

Plus, I don't expect big third party characters on Gordon's level, especially if they're Western. People were expecting those since Joker and they haven't panned out so far.

I've seen people say that Heavy is likelier because he has the most fan demand out of the Valve characters. 1) that fan demand is still super small, and 2) it's not fan demand that'll get us a Valve character, that's for sure.

Want: 100%
Gordon would be cool on so many levels. His moveset potential is great, I mean crowbar and Gravity Gun alone is more than enough to be super unique. And we'd get to experience the world of Half-Life with the level of detail and love that Smash gives; that would be extra special with Half-Life, as it's a world we sadly don't get to visit very often.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5

Heavy isn't that recent but as long as Gordon isn't in I don't see anything changing either

Chance: 0%
When I first heard about the idea of Heavy in Smash, I was very confused. No appearances on Nintendo hardware. A very bloody shooter, plus the big ass minigun, kind of seemed to spell not great chances to me. Not a 1%, but not too far either. However, something suddenly clicked in my head:

Valve made Half-Life.

Look, Team Fortress created a genre, was the king for a long while there, and it's now alive and kicking with Overwatch. It's definitely got its place in gaming history and many of its characters are icons (to the point where one would be incredibly likely if not for the guns + no Nintendo appearance factors). But Half-Life is usually considered one of the pinnacles of gaming, a seminal shooter that defined the genre alongside GoldenEye up until Halo and Call of Duty shook things up. Gordon Freeman is more iconic too, and is more of Valve's mascots. And his crowbar and gravity gun, plus the sci-fi setting feels more realizable in Smash than TF2's military setting and 'ludicrous gibs' humor. Just like Spyro and Crash, they both have great merits, but one feels like the definitive pick compared to the other.

Want: 15%
Man, did I play TF2 a lot as a kid. But somehow, TF2 doesn't really draw me as a Smash candidate. Maybe it's the very PC-ness of it (even though it did come to consoles) or the humor of it being very much contrary to Nintendo. I'd take it, but I'd like Mr. Freeman more. Hell, Heavy was never my favorite TF2 character, so someone like Spy or Engineer would be better for me.

Changed Gordon's want from 90 to 100 and Heavy's chance from 1 to 0

Loli day prediction: I'm actually really curious to see how these two will hold up. Arle got a super high score last time that I don't see her living up to, and indies overall took a dive so I wonder if that'll apply to Reimu
I'll go 40.86% Arle and 23.41% Reimu

Future Nomination:

x5 I want to revisit Rhythm Heaven/Karate Joe

Karate Joe is already scheduled to be rated, so there's no need to nominate him. A general RH rep though, that's still up for nominating.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Abstaining on Gordon Freeman and Heavy today. Don't think I really have enough info to give these two a fair rating. TF2 is fun though, I will say that.

Predictions:
Arle Nadja: 36%
Reimu: 35%
Oh boy. If you look at my signature you'll see why I'm excited for tomorrow.

Nominations:
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Can someone nom Amiya? Please? No? Just me? OK...

 

[fogbadge]

i have no idea who either of these characters are.

abstain and nominate nate adams x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Gordon
Chance: 15%

Although Sakurai did praise Half Life 2, that alone is not enough to warant inclusion. Has Sakurai praised Banjo before inclusion? I don't think so. Sure, it's good and all, but what's more important is relationship. There is little to no relationship between Nintendo and Valve. Although Gabe did say he's fine with Nintendo using Valve's character, that's still not as open as Phil Spencer's push. Reason why people think Master Chief is possible is relationship between Microsoft and Nintendo, and that relationship didn't come out of nowhere. There are many characters and games that Sakurai praised, but that didn't mean anything for Smash. It's definitely plus, but not guarantee.

Want: 65%

Half Life is one of the most influential FPS in gaming history. And his inclusion would signify Smash's meaning as celebration of gaming. I prefer Gordon's arsenals to Heavy. Gordon seems to have more in spade. Crowbar and Gravity Gun alone make him more unique.

Heavy
Chance: 5%

It seems Heavy has more fan demand than Gordon, but in grand scheme of thing, they are pretty insignificant. They are not enough to overcome lack of relationship between the two companies. And people forget that it wasn't sheer fan demand that got Banjo in. Microsoft and Rare also actively supported it. You can say "Oh! MS is trying to improve its friendly image!" "They saw fan demand!!" But in the end, the final say was under Microsoft and Nintendo. There isn't even hint that Valve wants to push TF2 that much.

Want: 10%

Meh. I looked through moveset, but he seems rather uninteresting. He is mostly carried by his cartoony look. I know "moveset" argument is not good argument when we have Piranha Plant, but Gordon has more moveset potential. Heavy doesn't seem to bring anything interesting.

Nom: Neptune from Neptunia

 

[YoshiandToad]

My god, I love Valve games. Genuinely. Aside from Nintendo, Valve may have my most favourite set of characters and titles ever. You know how people view Capcom and it's multiple excellent IPs? Or maybe even Sega when you include Atlus? I'm that way with the boys behind Steam.

Honestly, either of today's rated characters, Chell from Portal or a freaking Left 4 Dead character(Bill preferably!) crossing over with Nintendo would be INSANE for me.

I've heard Dead by Daylight may bring Left 4 Dead's Bill Overbeck to Switch via Cross Progression and that very simple cameo is super exciting to a Valve nerd like me who played Left 4 Dead endlessly.

I've got a brand new Combine-arvester...
Chance: 10%
Alright, let me just set this up by stating that you know all the hype people talk about with Doomguy being the face of First Person Shooters and how it revolutionised FPS and all that?

Yeah, well Half Life is the OTHER FPS that defined the genre. Might be a bit before the times of some users here, but back in the day Half Life was THE game and Gordon Freeman is to PC gaming as Mario is to Nintendo, or Master Chief is to Xbox or...how many saw Crash was to Playstation back in the day.

If Valve are approached, I think they'll use good old Crowbar swinging, gravity gun shooting and nerdy mute Gordon over the larger than life Heavy or the equally mute but cunning Chell.

Want: 90%
I'll be honest with you here. Half Life, whilst being one of the biggest of deals to PC gaming if not ALL gaming, isn't my favourite Valve product. Heck, it's fourth on the list after Team Fortress 2, Left 4 Dead and Portal(in that order) and whilst Gordon's got plenty of fun little tools to unleash upon the unsuspecting fighters including a GUN THAT SHOOTS HORNETS, A FLESH EATING MINION HEADCRAB TYPE THING, A DISINTIGRATION GUN AND A GRAVITY GUN, I'd still prefer several other Valve characters.

Oh yeah, don't make the mistake of thinking Freeman would be boring. The weaponry he has access to is insane.

Heavy Pain
Chance: 7%
Heavy is the most popular choice amongst Smashers for a Valve character, and it's not difficult to see why. He's cartoony, he's over the top and they're far more familiar with him than Gordon due to Youtube being littered with Team Fortress 2 source videos, and considering the game shows no sign of dying even after 13 years(!) Heavy certainly has the longevity and popularity to be a worthwhile addition to Smash.

Heavy, for his part, also has a few things he has over Gordon. For example he's crossed over with a few things prior including Super Smash Bros. veteran Sonic the Hedgehog in the Sonic and Sega All Stars Racing game on Steam. He, Pyro and Spy took it in turns to drive their cars to race against Sonic and friends as a PC exclusive racer(similar to how Banjo was for Xbox in the prior title).

Valve aren't above putting the TF2 cast out in other cameos either with Saints Row coming with a lovely set of mercenary bobble heads for 'The Boss' to wear in Saints Row the Third(aka the best one, fight me).

With all this, Heavy has become the second mascot of Valve, and certainly the most active face.

Contrary to popular belief Nintendo and Valve do have a little bit of a relationship, but it's unfortunately not a very impressive one. They had planned to release a Half Life Tactics game exclusive to Nintendo Switch, but the project was canned. Aside from that all we currently have Bridge Constructor Portal on Nintendo Switch(but it's a multiplatform title) but there's apparently some big Valve/Nintendo news coming up somewhere between August and October so who knows what that could mean. I'm erring on the side of caution, but it could be anything.

Want: 100%
He's a weird choice for Smash. He has no presence on Nintendo consoles. Heck, out of the 9 mercenary classes he's probably one of the hardest to turn into a Smash fighter(unless his team comes with him for up specials and the like) but gosh dang it, if I don't have a soft spot for this big beefy boy and his sandvich delivery service.

Team Fortress 2 is my favourite title ever, beating even the likes of Smash Bros. and Super Mario Bros. Since my username and position on this site as someone who's been around even longer than Team Fortress 2 has been, you can probably understand just how big a deal this is to me.

Would I want him over my other wants like Captain Toad, Bandana Waddle Dee or Dixie Kong? No. I love Heavy, but frankly those guys deserve inclusion in the Nintendo fighter before him, but if he got in, he'd easily be my favourite third party addition ever, beating out both Pac-Man and Sonic even.

Overall I'd prefer Pyro(my main) or the more mobile classes of Scout, Soldier(RIP Rick May) and Demoman for Smashers, but as Heavy is the face of the franchise having these other classes be the character over him would...kinda feel wrong.

Team Fortress 2 is an excellent game and free to play so for gods sake give it a go if you can...now if only Valve could finish the Team Fortress 2 comic series.

 

[Calamitas]

Right, since we rated Gordon rather recently, I'll also just quote my rating from that day, since it still stands.

Half Life Full Life Consequences

Chance: 0%
Guess I'm the downer on this subject, huh? I'll just not beat around the bush: I don't see it. The Half Life series has always been PC exclusive, with not a single one of its titles making it to consoles (unless Alyx did? I'm not sure). And while there's no denying that the series has been pretty influential to gaming as a whole, that alone doesn't really have to mean much in terms of chances for making it into Smash. And so what if Sakurai has praised Half Life 2? He talks about plenty of games and has played a whole lot of games. There's no fan demand, no good relations between Nintendo and Valve that we know of, and, most importantly, no fan support. He's not happening.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really have any interest in Half Life, but I also never really touched the series. I don't want to drag down this rating just because of that.

As for the other. . .

It costs $5.99 to play this hypothetical DLC for eight seconds

Chance: 0%
Valve and Team Fortress 2 do certainly have a strong history in terms of gaming, but that's about all they have going for them. Valve still is a Western company with almost no ties to Nintendo, one which primarily develops for PC, and one which has no noteworthy presence in Japan. Neither Heavy, nor any other Team Fortress 2 character is going to make it into Smash.

Want: 0%
Absolutely no interest there. I know some bits and pieces about TF2 through pop cultural osmosis and memes, but I have no affinity or interest in the game or any of its characters appearing in Smash.

Predicting Arle to get around 36.49%
Predicting Reimu to get around 15.62%

Nominating Concept: A Non White/Asian Human character x5

 

[Lyncario]

Gordon Freeman
Chance: 0.5%
I don't feel like Gordon will get into Smash at all. Even if a new Half-Life happened recently, I just feels like Nintendo doesn't even think about this possibility. He just feels very unlikely to me.
Want: 30%
I don't care about Half Life, so neutral rating from me. I always saw Half Life as a thin that exist and does not interest me, just like most fps.

"Son, always remember. Dying is gay"
Chance: 2%
Heavy is also very unlikely in my opinion, but he has one thing over Gordon and it's that he actualy has a fairly large fan request in the west. However, it's very recent, and west centric. So yeah, he's also unlikely in my opinion.
Want: 60%
Hoewever, I think that Heavy would be a very fun addition to the game. While I don't like most fps, TF2 is just so fun. The game just has such a goofy and fun aura, I can't find way to not like it. So yeah, Heavy in Smash would be cool in my opinion.

Predictions:
Arle: 21.4%
Reimu: 17.9%

Nominations: SMT rep x5

 

[BowserKing]

Gordon Freeman

Chance: 10%. It has not really changed much since I last did my rating on him. With that said, he may not be as impossible as some other people thought. Plus his inclusion would help promote his games.

Want: 50%. Not has changed about the want either. With that said, he would still be a fun character to play as, and a fighter that uses a crowbar as a melee weapon is something we don’t have in the roaster yet. Overall, he would be a decent choice for a Smash bros Rep.

Heavy

Chance: 15%. Given how popular Team Fortress 2 is, his inclusion makes it a bit more likely then Gordon Freeman. With that said, there may be a few things that shorten his chance, like his game is not yet on a Nintendo device (at least that I’m awareness of), but we have seen characters that did not appear on a Nintendo device get in (Cloud was an example until his debut game got released on the switch)

Want: 55%. He would be fun to play as, and I can see him go into a weapon type battle with Snake, Bayonetta and Joker. Overall, Heavy would be a great choice for not only a Team Fortress Rep, but also a Valve Rep as well, and who knows who gets to join in.

Prediction: Arle (20%) and Reimu (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo (Olimar)

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. I have nothing to say about either of these 2.

Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[Sari]

Gordon Freeman

We rated Gordon at the very end of May. I don't think anything regarding his chances has changed so I'm just gonna paste what I wrote back then:

Chance: 10%
Steam is the largest PC gaming distributer so it's safe to say that they are very recognizable across the globe. The localization of various games on Steam has even resulted in increased popularity of the platform in Japan over the past few years which has been growing by the year. Certain Valve games like Dota 2 are also extremely popular in places like China, while CS:GO usually has +600,000 people playing it daily. On top of all this, Sakurai has even talked about Half-Life 2 in the past, saying that it blew him away and that it was more than just your run-of-the-mill FPS game. If Nintendo plans on bringing in the PC crowd then a Valve character is their way to go.

Something else I should bring up is that Valve has shown interest to working with Nintendo in the past. Gabe Newell's son said that there were attempts with the two companies to collaborate back in the Wii days. Gabe even flew to the Nintendo HQ where Gabe's son got to play Super Mario Galaxy with Miyamoto. Although the past deals didn't work out, the interest has always been there; for example the Half-Life: Tactics game that was scrapped was speculated to be on Switch.

Now for the bad: although PC gaming has become big again in Japan, most of Valve's actual games don't seem to be that popular there from what I could find. Valve itself has little relation to Nintendo, with their only connection being the Portal content in Lego Dimensions and Portal Bridge Constructor being on Switch. I know people will say that we have Cloud and Joker, but SE and Sega/Atlus have a ton of connection to Nintendo. It's hard to see Nintendo working with a Western company that they have little history with. Yes I know we have Banjo from Microsoft but that's only after immense fan demand for the character since the Smash 64 days.

If we were to get a Valve rep I think they would prioritize Gordon, Chell, and Heavy in that order. Gordon would have priority since Half-Life started everything and his reveal would break the internet. Chell would be next due to Portal's massive acclaim and even having a bit of Nintendo presence for whatever that's worth. Heavy is popular but it's become more evident over time that Valve has pretty much given up on TF2, which is why I honestly don't see him making it in over the other two.

Want: 90%
Half-Life is probably my favorite single-player FPS series. The gravity gun alone would make Gordon incredibly fun to use plus he'd be able to bring over a ton of other Valve content into Smash as well (Headcrab Mii Hat is basically guaranteed with his inclusion). Only reason this isn't 100% is because Heavy is still my most wanted Valve rep.

-----

Can't wait for the Dustbowl stage where the stage hazard is an ubered phlog Pyro that instant kills players as they get off the respawn platform

Chance: 1%
If we're getting a Valve character then it'll most likely be Gordon. Half-Life is Valve's signature game and it even has a relevancy boost thanks to Half-Life: Alyx for whatever that's worth. If Nintendo talked to Valve about Smash then Gordon is the character I'm confident they'd go with, and even if they didn't then they could still go with Chell. I don't see Valve wanting to promote a TF2 character especially with the game recently reaching 1,000 days without a major update and only getting small patches in times of need like Rick May's death, the bot crisis which literally made the game unplayable (and even now still isn't completely fixed), etc.

Want: 100%
TF2 is one of my most played games of all time which I still play it a lot today. Of the 9 classes, Heavy is my most played character and would be the best way to represent the game. Now the real question is if they'll add random crits to all of his moves and make him an even crazier RNG character than Hero.

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Reimu chance prediction: 24.00%
Arle chance prediction: 37.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[jamesster445]

Valve Boys

I'm gonna abstain on these two. I don't know enough about either series to make an opinion. That said I'd rather have Chell than either of these two.

Nominations: Jin x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Gonna leave my last ratings for these two here today. I feel my Heavy rating might be a bit outdated but I don't really feel like changing it.

Gordo
Chance: 0.1%
Half-life may be a highly regarded series but its connection to Nintendo is virtually none and the same basically applies to Valve as a whole. FPS games are also still unpopular in Japan and I'm not sure Half-life is an exception. If they're putting in an FPS rep anyway than someone like MC makes more sense because of the stronger bond between companies and Halo's bigger popularity. However, my gut is feeling we aren't getting huge big budget third-parties like these in the pass anyhow.

Want: Abstaining

yatatatatata
Chance: 0%
Not only has TF2 never appeared on a Nintendo system, any franchise Valve owns also hasn't. The two companies have never interacted with eachother and I don't really see that changing considering the state of Valve at the moment. TF2 is also an FPS and thus likely lacks any Japanese presence, which I consider a nail in the coffin to western third-parties like the Heavy.

Want: 1%
I have never played TF2 but I am familiar with how it has engrained into internet culture. So yes, the Heavy is a fun guy booming with personality, that said... he has no place in Smash. Unlike pre-Switch FF7 or Persona, TF2 has absolutely zero things to do with Nintendo. Having him show up in this Nintendo&co crossover game just wouldn't feel right to me.

Arle: 30.54%
Reimu: 19.66%
Deltarune content x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't really care for either of these guys.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[Neosonic97]

Not been here for a while, what's happening? Heavy and Gordon Freeman? Eh, not really interested in rating them. Who's ne-

Predict Arle and Reimu

Reimu

Oh boy, another opportunity to gush about Touhou!

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Direct Partner Edition pre-Heavy Weapons Guy/Gordon Freeman

Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x210
Tidus x185
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x160
Shuichi Saihara x136
[Rerate] Ezio x135
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x135

150 - 101

Alex Mason x130
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Frisk x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110

100 - 51

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x100
Billy Hatcher x95
Echo: Xion (Sora) x82
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Sakura Shinguji x78
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x75
Riptor x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Concept: Deltarune content x67
The Terrarian x60
Concept: Rocket League rep x60
Klonoa x60
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x40
Dr. Goomba Tower x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x15
Taranza x11
Echo (Olimar) x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Amiya (Arknights) x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x5
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Ezio climbs past Alex Mason, hiding in sixth place. At the same time, Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume gets into the top seven, tied with Ezio. This results in Mason getting taken out.

 

[Wunderwaft]

Gordon Freeman

Chance: 30%
There's not much to add compared to the last time we rated him, we know how big Half-Life is and what not so I will only say this. According to a text leak from the TF2 source leak Nintendo once approached Valve to develop them a Switch exclusive Half-Life title, sure that didn't go anywhere in the end but the fact that Nintendo approached them about this to begin with shows they think big about Valve. We know Sakurai also spoke positively about the Half-Life franchise before in one of his columns. Does this point to a Smash character? No, but it shows there isn't a problem since both companies are in good relations and it could happen if either party got interested.

Want: 100%
I would love to see Gordon in Smash, Half-Life has more than enough unique weaponry like the gravity gun to make Gordon stand out from every other shooter. My most wanted third party character besides Kratos.



Heavy

Chance: 0%
Look, if even Valve doesn't care about TF2 anymore, then why would Nintendo care about it then? The game hasn't had a major update in like 3 years and according to VNN the TF2 team has mostly disappeared except for one or two people managing the servers.

Want: 75%
Hey I like Heavy and I like TF2. But I strongly prefer Gordon and Chell over him for a playable fighter slot. I just think those two have more to offer in terms of uniqueness with their gravity and portal guns.



Prediction:
Reimu: 35.7%
Arle: 42.1%

Nomination: Monster Hunter x5

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[KingofPhantoms]

Spoiler: Half-Life OST time

Gordon Freeman Chance: 20%

Valve has no professional relationship with Nintend, but some of the developers from both companies have been inspired or impressed by some of the other company's games, so there's definitely some grounds to work with, there.

Besides that, Half-Life is probably one of the most influential games of all time, coming right after Doom in defining the the FPS genre as it's known today. No cutscenes, no breaks from the third-person POV, constant gameplay and lightning-fast action, terrific atmosphere, tons of action involving puzzles and platforming in addition to just shooting the crap out of aliens and enemy soldiers with a wide variety of basic and creative new weapons, etc. And if the likes of Snake and Bayonetta can get in without issue, I'm pretty sure Gordon would be able to get in just fine, too, and just like those two, it'd be without his moveset really suffering for it, either.

Want: 90%

Any major playable Valve character would make my day, and Gordon is no exception. From the Crowbar to the Gravity Gun, the dude's got one of the single most unique and badass arsenals out of any video game protagonist in history, and it could translate really well into his Smash moveset. I also really like the Half-Life series myself, and I'd be happy to see him.

Heavy Weapons Guy Chance: 25%

The one reason I consider him a bit more likely than Gordon is because the Heavy is a wackier character from a more cartooney game. As a result, the guns might translate a bit better into Smash than Gordon's, since it'd be less overtly violent. Other than that, Heavy would be a less likely due to being from a game that isn't getting much developer support anymore. The game and it's community are far from dead, but it's not as much on the competitive scene anymore as a few other Hero Shooters are. Plus it's not quite as iconic as Half-Life, nor is it the face of Valve's games like Half-Life.

That said, a few TF2 once characters managed to make into a Sonic Racing Game as a single racer, so there's that. TF2 crossing over into other games that aren't exactly mature isn't unheard of.

Want: 90%

Hell yeah! Team Fortress 2 is one of my favorite games since I picked it up in 2014, and it's certainly one of my favorite online FPS games. I've clocked tons of hours into it, and while I'm a Pyro and Demoman main at heart, the Heavy is the face of the game and deserves more love. I'd love to see the big guy in Smash, and would love playing as him there just as much. You want the other TF2 Mercs of RED and BLU in the game, too? Give him a Mega Man-styled Final Smash, where he calls upon the rest of his team for help in firing off a big, coordinated, cartoonishly, gloriously destrucive finisher attack on his opponents, and we're golden. That is what I want to see in Smash.

Reimu Prediction: 27.08%
Arle Prediction: 30.25%

Nominations: Tetra x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Fat Guy Hombre Libre.

Chance: 1%

I don't think we are getting "PC Centric" Characters in Smash (well, outside of Steve and Tomorrow's choice). Half Life is barely a thing anymore outside of that recently well recieved VR game, Valve has barely shown any interest to collaborate with Nintendo in general (which in turn means Gordon's and Half Life's presence in Nintendo is borderline nonexistent) the character is not requested in Smash circles, etc. I don't see any reason, circumstance or even scenario in which this character could get in now or even in the future.

Want: 0%

Zero interest in Half Life.

It pains me to say this, but 0%. You see, there is a major blockade that keeps Heavy from appearing in Smash, or anything, for that matter. Because, you see... Heavy is Dead.

THE HEAVY IS DEAD?

Chance: 1%

Well..........he might as well be dead when it concerns to Smash. Same issues as Gordon (not popular in Japan, no Nintendo presence due to lack of interest from Valve, etc) but now you add that Valve really doesn't care about TF2 anymore, i mean **** when was the last time the game recieved a significant update?

I could go on, but that would be just redundant. Heavy seems to really have nothing going for him.

Want: 20%

I'll be honest, Heavy is a character that i don't see happening in Smash nor really should happen in Smash, but unlike others who i can describe in the same way, I woulnd't be mad in the slightlest. I know, it's hypocritical of me going "NOOOOOO YOU CAN'T ADD ANY THIRD PARTY WILLY NILLY IT'S A NINTENDO ALL STARS" and then me going "ha ha Heavy go VZZZZZZZADADADADADAADAVVVVRRRRRR HAHAHAHAHA", but what can i say? TF2 has charm and charisma barely any other game in the world has, i would love to see that Charm in Smash. Granted i would prefer the Scout, but still.

If nothing i can honestly say i prefer Him over the two we are rating tomorrow.

Noms:
Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed X5

 

[SharkLord]

THE HEAVY IS DEAD?

YES!
*slams desk*
He DIED!

 

[chocolatejr9]

YES!
*slams desk*
He DIED!

*shocked expression in front of green screen*

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

*shocked expression in front of green screen*

*siren sounds* INCOOOOOMING *crashes into Soldier*

RAUS RAUS

MOVE NOW

*smooch*

 

[SharkLord]

*siren sounds* INCOOOOOMING *crashes into Soldier*

RAUS RAUS

MOVE NOW

*smooch*

*Rises into the air in a beam of sunlight*
HOHOHO, Hea-
*Explodes into meaty chunks*
oof

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

*Rises into the air in a beam of sunlight*
HOHOHO, Hea-
*Explodes into meaty chunks*
oof

In my medical opinion that HEAVY IS DEAD!

 

[Ridrool64]

Do we have anybody with a Mii Costume in Smash Ultimate on the schedule prior to Rex, or...?

Turn the valve for this duo!

Chance (Both): 10%. Gordon Freeman has legacy to his name vs. Heavy being much more requested. But either way, I do not believe we'll be getting a character from Valve to begin with. They don't quite have the pull of a new western character like Activision and that's WITH Crash's demand far outstripping most characters. Being western and having extremely scant (if any) Nintendo releases, including none of their main content, it doesn't seem like Valve has much interest in Nintendo which would preclude them wanting a character in Smash.

Want (Gordon): 35%. I get that he's more important, but I'd straight up rather have the Heavy because I have no idea what Gordon's playstyle would even be. Doesn't help that I'm not really interested in Half-Life.

Want (Heavy): 60%. A superheavy zoner is something we once had but no longer do, thus I feel like the Heavy could fulfill this niche better than anybody else. It helps that I have a genuine, small but genuine, connection to TF2 the way I don't with Half-Life. Could go either way on Heavy or Chell, though.

Arle I think is going to undergo quite a drop for various reasons, 24.59%. Reimu has been on the rise, but the presumed lack of focus on third parties will probably hurt her. 19.49%. Frisk x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Do we have anybody with a Mii Costume in Smash Ultimate on the schedule prior to Rex, or...?

We got Skull Kid, Takamaru, Lip, and Tails before Rex.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

So, are we ready for the next day?

 

[SharkLord]

So, are we ready for the next day?

Well, I'm fully prepared to write an essay on Touhou's influence and why Reimu's seriously slept on, but that's just me.

 

[Honest Slug]

Gordon

Chance: 5%
Would be a big deal, particularly when you consider how revolutionary the Half-Life series was, that seems to fit the tastes of Sakurai quite a bit. Besides the "Wow" factor however there's basically nothing in Gordon Freeman's favor. Not only does Half-Life have no presence on Nintendo, but Valve has no relationship with them either. I don't really think a character not being on a Nintendo system makes them impossible (Come on guys, Sakurai didn't include Cloud soley cuz an obscure Theatrhythm cameo) but I feel like all of them could've never gotten in if Nintendo didn't get something out of a partnership, and I don't think Nintendo will get anything out of a Valve partnership, hence he likely won't be in the game.

Want: 70%
I'm a big fan of the the Half-Life games, and I think Gordon, when combined with the Gravity Gun and other Half-Life mechanics, would be a really fun character to play as. I do like Chell a bit more but I understand Half-Life is the granddaddy and will take priority. I mostly just want a Portal stage with Palutena's Guidance like convos with GLADOS.

Heavy

Chance: 0%
Basically the same deal as with Crash and Spyro. Heavy isn't getting in before Gordon Freeman. And unlike Crash, Gordon is very unlikely imo, so I'm not even willing to give even a 1% for Heavy there. It doesn't help that Valve is very much done with TF2, and in an ironic turn of events, Half-Life has actually become more relevant with the VR game. Those Half-Life 3 memes did pay off after all! What a cruel fate.

Want: 50%
I do like TF2 and the Heavy, but I'm pretty agnostic on Heavy's inclusion. I'd like anything Valve related, but Gordon and Chell are just choices that interest me more.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Well, I'm fully prepared to write an essay on Touhou's influence and why Reimu's seriously slept on, but that's just me.

Get ready for some counterarguments then.
and this is coming from someone who used to really like Touhou.

 

[SharkLord]

Get ready for some counterarguments then.
and this is coming from someone who used to really like Touhou.

Is there any specific reason why you only used to like Touhou? Or is it just one of those things that happen?

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Is there any specific reason why you only used to like Touhou? Or is it just one of those things that happen?

Bad experiences with the fandom, losing patience with the games (bullet hell was never a genre I enjoyed much, so I found the games frustrating), never cared for the memes/fan headcanons, and just kinda growing out of it over time.