SharkLord
Smash Hero
Ah, I see. I mostly came there for the music (Official and fanmade) and I'll probably be sticking to the fighters most of the time.
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
Day over.
Rate Reimu from Touhou and Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo.
Predict Skull Kid, Midna, and Lyn.
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:
Reimu
Arle Nadja
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We rated both of these characters on the same day back in February. Gonna paste my ratings from then since pretty much nothing has changed:
Skull Kid: 20.00%
Midna: 9.43%
Lyn: 14.50%
Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5
Rate Reimu from Touhou and Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo.
Predict Skull Kid, Midna, and Lyn.
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:
Reimu
Arle Nadja
-----
We rated both of these characters on the same day back in February. Gonna paste my ratings from then since pretty much nothing has changed:
Chance predictions:
Skull Kid: 20.00%
Midna: 9.43%
Lyn: 14.50%
Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
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- 1,784
The Heavy
Chance - 0.05% - Heavy is more or less seen as a mascot for Valve as a whole, which is impressive when you have characters like GLaDOS. However, Valve has made virtually zero contributions not just to Nintendo, but console gaming as a whole. Unless Valve has something in the pipes, I don't see why Valve would be chosen.
Want - 50% - Heavy's take it or leave it to me, as I have no strong opinions either way. He's just there.
Gordon Freeman
Chance - 0.05% - Heavy has longevity on his side, but Half-Life is Half-Life. I can see the argument either way, and I feel that both have roughly even chances. Who they will pick will likely come down to weather they value the long standing TF2 or the importance of Half Life coming true.
Want - 50% - Largely the same. I don't care much.
Nominations
Monster Hunter X5
Chance - 0.05% - Heavy is more or less seen as a mascot for Valve as a whole, which is impressive when you have characters like GLaDOS. However, Valve has made virtually zero contributions not just to Nintendo, but console gaming as a whole. Unless Valve has something in the pipes, I don't see why Valve would be chosen.
Want - 50% - Heavy's take it or leave it to me, as I have no strong opinions either way. He's just there.
Gordon Freeman
Chance - 0.05% - Heavy has longevity on his side, but Half-Life is Half-Life. I can see the argument either way, and I feel that both have roughly even chances. Who they will pick will likely come down to weather they value the long standing TF2 or the importance of Half Life coming true.
Want - 50% - Largely the same. I don't care much.
Nominations
Monster Hunter X5
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
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- Aug 13, 2018
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Funny enough these two were rated together last time too
Reimu
Chance 2 - Indie rep, and this one is extremely unknown everywhere outside of Japan. Most of her case comes from fake leaks and the likes from her own fanbase(props to them for trying so hard but it's a little bit cringy and annoying now), and unlike Ryu Hayabusa where there's other stuff supporting it I don't see why Nintendo would pick her. While I don't think history with Nintendo matters as much as it once did I do think that it's telling that a lot of indies who make more sense got passed up already, and I don't think that Nintendo is going to pass on them again to include a character nobody knows outside of Japan and has 1 game on the system(not sure if it's been released yet). Sakurai mentioned that Takamaru would be in if he was known outside of Japan and we havent' gotten a character like that since Lucas in brawl. Overall, don't see this happening.
Want 0 - Looked into her more since the last time and still don't really want her. The level of unknown she has outside of Japan is a really big turn off to me since I have no connection to the character and a lot more interesting and better indie picks already got Mii Costume'd or AT'd. Feels like she should be a special Mii Costume at best really.
Arle
Chance 40 - Feels like a contender for another Sega rep if we get one. The no violence article thing(whatever that was) bothers me with her although there might be ways around it. Arle was also propped up a lot by faulty evidence but there's enough here to make me think she's a possibility with her scoring well on international fan ballots and the likes. That, and if we dont get another Sonic rep I think it's between her and Kiryu for one more Sega character and Arle is more requested, even though I think overall it's pretty even for chances there.
Want 20 - Not super into this. Kiryu seems a lot more exciting to me and I think another Sonic rep sounds more appealing, especially Eggman. Doubt I'll outright reject it should it happen but there's others I'd rather get.
Predictions
Skull Kid 18%
Lyn 2.13%
Midna 12%
Noms:
John Marston x5
Reimu
Chance 2 - Indie rep, and this one is extremely unknown everywhere outside of Japan. Most of her case comes from fake leaks and the likes from her own fanbase(props to them for trying so hard but it's a little bit cringy and annoying now), and unlike Ryu Hayabusa where there's other stuff supporting it I don't see why Nintendo would pick her. While I don't think history with Nintendo matters as much as it once did I do think that it's telling that a lot of indies who make more sense got passed up already, and I don't think that Nintendo is going to pass on them again to include a character nobody knows outside of Japan and has 1 game on the system(not sure if it's been released yet). Sakurai mentioned that Takamaru would be in if he was known outside of Japan and we havent' gotten a character like that since Lucas in brawl. Overall, don't see this happening.
Want 0 - Looked into her more since the last time and still don't really want her. The level of unknown she has outside of Japan is a really big turn off to me since I have no connection to the character and a lot more interesting and better indie picks already got Mii Costume'd or AT'd. Feels like she should be a special Mii Costume at best really.
Arle
Chance 40 - Feels like a contender for another Sega rep if we get one. The no violence article thing(whatever that was) bothers me with her although there might be ways around it. Arle was also propped up a lot by faulty evidence but there's enough here to make me think she's a possibility with her scoring well on international fan ballots and the likes. That, and if we dont get another Sonic rep I think it's between her and Kiryu for one more Sega character and Arle is more requested, even though I think overall it's pretty even for chances there.
Want 20 - Not super into this. Kiryu seems a lot more exciting to me and I think another Sonic rep sounds more appealing, especially Eggman. Doubt I'll outright reject it should it happen but there's others I'd rather get.
Predictions
Skull Kid 18%
Lyn 2.13%
Midna 12%
Noms:
John Marston x5
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Abstain. All I can say is that while I still want Arle, I've grown to other SEGA characters (those being Axel Stone and Sakura Shinguji, the latter of whom I'm currently nominating).
Skull Kid: 5%
Lyn: 3%
Midna: 5%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×1
Sakura Shinguji ×4
Skull Kid: 5%
Lyn: 3%
Midna: 5%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×1
Sakura Shinguji ×4
Last edited:
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And I was about to end the day too, just got back from my workout 
.
abstain from Gordon.
heavy
10% chance
Look, heavy has two things going for him. First is Valve is a big company. They are the face of PC gaming. Seriously, steam is a giant. Second, He is a relatively popular request in the west. But this is only in the west. TF2 has seen better days too but it’s stable enough. Gordon is competition. Etc.
100% want
Look, I could write a sappy rant of how much I love tf2. But I don’t wanna right now. I wanna relax and play some dang it. It’s one of my favorite games of all time, if not my all time favorite. It is almost perfect. The game has so much depth and charm. I would love it in smash.
boss rush x 5
.abstain from Gordon.
heavy
10% chance
Look, heavy has two things going for him. First is Valve is a big company. They are the face of PC gaming. Seriously, steam is a giant. Second, He is a relatively popular request in the west. But this is only in the west. TF2 has seen better days too but it’s stable enough. Gordon is competition. Etc.
100% want
Look, I could write a sappy rant of how much I love tf2. But I don’t wanna right now. I wanna relax and play some dang it. It’s one of my favorite games of all time, if not my all time favorite. It is almost perfect. The game has so much depth and charm. I would love it in smash.
boss rush x 5
Abstain on Arle
Reimu
Double 0%
A Japanese exclusive third party indie character with no Nintendo appearances aside from a spin-off fan game. I don't see it happening and I don't want it happening. There are just so many more characters I'd rather see and I think are more likely. And request for the character is so new that I doubt it could influence decisions.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Prediction
Skull Kid 11%
Lyn? 2%
Midna 4%
Reimu
Double 0%
A Japanese exclusive third party indie character with no Nintendo appearances aside from a spin-off fan game. I don't see it happening and I don't want it happening. There are just so many more characters I'd rather see and I think are more likely. And request for the character is so new that I doubt it could influence decisions.
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5
Prediction
Skull Kid 11%
Lyn? 2%
Midna 4%
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Reimu
Chance: 30%
Reimu should not be underestimated. Touhou is huge in Japan and has spawned a franchise spanning across decades and across various mediums. Touhou also has some games on Nintendo systems with more games coming to the Switch. ZUN seems like a chill guy and easy to work with since he is fine with the fanmade content and just last year he said he wanted Touhou in Smash.
Reimu's biggest downsides are her indie status, Touhou's history being relegated mostly to PC and not Nintendo, and Touhou being niche in the West. If Takamaru got rejected for being too obscure, that might spell trouble for Reimu as she is a literal who to a large portion of the western audience. But to counter these points, Reimu is one of the likeliest indie characters due to her immense popularity and Japanese origin, Cloud and Joker prove that a game/series does not need long-term or significant Nintendo history to be considered, and Touhou does have a decent size (and very passionate and dedicated) fanbase.
I say Reimu's big obstacle is Quote whose game is the grandfather of indie games and also has Japanese origins. But again Touhou is no slouch at all and represents a type of game not represented in the roster. Overall, I feel pretty confident in her, even with everything here taken into account.
Want: 60%
I've come to appreciate Touhou. I have to admit, it seems like an intriguing rabbit hole with all the countless official and fanmade games and merchandise. Reimu is cute, but I've also seen her be described, and I quote, more like someone who is an "alcoholic divine cop who beats everyone up randomly whenever something happens." And people say this is accurate (I would appreciate if someone here confirmed this because it sounds too good). I took a listen to some of the music and jesus christ there is too much good music to choose from.
While she ain't one of my most wanted, it would be nice to have Reimu in Smash and she would open the door for future indies to become playable.
_____________________
Dr. Robotnik's Puyo Puyo Machine
Chance: 35%
Arle has kind of fallen from grace when it comes to Smash speculation due to evidence pointing toward her leading to nothing, like with Daisy Theory not turning out to be accurate at all. Still, I think Arle has a good shot. Sega has been pushing Puyo Puyo and it was the first Japanese game to get included on the SNES online service. Arle is requested and is definitely one of Sega's top contenders. Her competition is mainly Kiryu and a Shin Megami Tensei rep but Puyo Puyo's long-term legacy and Nintendo history will help her remain competitive. I could see her being the Terry of this pass, someone who isn't super popular but has good reasons to be in Smash.
Want: 65%
I really enjoy the Puyo Puyo games. Arle is cute and has some cool magic of her own. I'm curious to see how they would implement Arle in a way that makes sense but also incorporates the puzzle aspect.
Predictions:
Skull Kid - 12%
Lyn - 5%
Midna 4%
Noms: Ezio x5
Chance: 30%
Reimu should not be underestimated. Touhou is huge in Japan and has spawned a franchise spanning across decades and across various mediums. Touhou also has some games on Nintendo systems with more games coming to the Switch. ZUN seems like a chill guy and easy to work with since he is fine with the fanmade content and just last year he said he wanted Touhou in Smash.
Reimu's biggest downsides are her indie status, Touhou's history being relegated mostly to PC and not Nintendo, and Touhou being niche in the West. If Takamaru got rejected for being too obscure, that might spell trouble for Reimu as she is a literal who to a large portion of the western audience. But to counter these points, Reimu is one of the likeliest indie characters due to her immense popularity and Japanese origin, Cloud and Joker prove that a game/series does not need long-term or significant Nintendo history to be considered, and Touhou does have a decent size (and very passionate and dedicated) fanbase.
I say Reimu's big obstacle is Quote whose game is the grandfather of indie games and also has Japanese origins. But again Touhou is no slouch at all and represents a type of game not represented in the roster. Overall, I feel pretty confident in her, even with everything here taken into account.
Want: 60%
I've come to appreciate Touhou. I have to admit, it seems like an intriguing rabbit hole with all the countless official and fanmade games and merchandise. Reimu is cute, but I've also seen her be described, and I quote, more like someone who is an "alcoholic divine cop who beats everyone up randomly whenever something happens." And people say this is accurate (I would appreciate if someone here confirmed this because it sounds too good). I took a listen to some of the music and jesus christ there is too much good music to choose from.
While she ain't one of my most wanted, it would be nice to have Reimu in Smash and she would open the door for future indies to become playable.
_____________________
Dr. Robotnik's Puyo Puyo Machine
Chance: 35%
Arle has kind of fallen from grace when it comes to Smash speculation due to evidence pointing toward her leading to nothing, like with Daisy Theory not turning out to be accurate at all. Still, I think Arle has a good shot. Sega has been pushing Puyo Puyo and it was the first Japanese game to get included on the SNES online service. Arle is requested and is definitely one of Sega's top contenders. Her competition is mainly Kiryu and a Shin Megami Tensei rep but Puyo Puyo's long-term legacy and Nintendo history will help her remain competitive. I could see her being the Terry of this pass, someone who isn't super popular but has good reasons to be in Smash.
Want: 65%
I really enjoy the Puyo Puyo games. Arle is cute and has some cool magic of her own. I'm curious to see how they would implement Arle in a way that makes sense but also incorporates the puzzle aspect.
Predictions:
Skull Kid - 12%
Lyn - 5%
Midna 4%
Noms: Ezio x5
SharkLord
Smash Hero
Hoo boy, here we go. Time to write an essay on Reimu's chances and get torn apart for it.
Arle Nadja:
Chance: 70%. Puyo Puyo's a pretty popular game, and makes a lot of cameos in other Sega titles. Arle's a fairly popular request too. Still, she has competition from Kiryu, Sakura, and another Sonic rep. It could be any of those characters, plus a crazy left-fielder. Still, at least those fans are civil about it.
Want: 70%. I'm not a major fan of Puyo Puyo, but it seems pretty fun and absolutely hilarious. I may not actively hope for Arle, but I'd be pretty content if she was a fighter.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 18.95%
Lyn: 9.63%
Midna: 12.87%
Nomination: Klonoa x5
I'm gonna get a lot of counterarguments for that essay, aren't I?
Chance: 80%. I'm in the minority here, but I think Reimu could be the sleeper pick of this pass, like Joker or Terry (Or maybe I'm just biased...). Touhou is absolutely HUGE in Japan. It's been around since the 90's and became popular in the early 2000's, so it's got a lot or legacy to back it up. It dominated conventions to the point that it got it's own convention all to itself, which is held annually until this year, because of COVID and all. There's so many fan remixes it's not even funny, and some were even distributed by Nintendo themselves during one of the Touhou conventions. Nintendo's definitely gotten in touch with Touhou before, so there's that.
Oh, and have I mentioned that a fanmade scroll of Touhou characters actually got put in a British museum? Because that actually happened. For context, it's to show correlation between historical and contemporary expression. Still, to get put up there is saying a lot. I also believe said museum houses the Rosetta Stone, but to say that is so absurd I'm kinda having some trouble believing that. Go look that up if you'd like.
Yes, Touhou's fairly niche outside of Japan, but it's not to the same level as, say, Mysterious Murasame Castle or MOTHER 3. A lot of Touhou games have been ported to Steam. While they're mostly left untranslated save for 15.5, that's only because the fans just make their own translation after a couple days, so ZUN doesn't have to make one himself.
In addition, Touhou's had a ton of crossovers, including Hello Kitty. Yeah, you're probably looking at me funny on the other side of the screen, but remember this: Hello Kitty is the second biggest franchise period, surpassing the likes of Mickey Mouse, Winnie the Pooh, and Star Wars, and only being beaten out by Nintendo's own Pokemon. In addition, it was stated that this crossover is because of Touhou's rising popularity with younger audiences, which would allow for a broader area of appeal for if Reimu ever got in Smash.
Still, Touhou is fairly niche. So why am I so confident in Reimu's chances? Well, for one, Touhou is an indie game, and arguably the biggest indie series there is. Other indies like Sans and Shovel Knight haven't been able to be playable (Well, not yet, in the possible case for Shovel Knight). but it shows Nintendo is willing to represent indies in some way.
Not only that, but Touhou isn't owned by a large corporate body like, say, Activision or Square Enix, but by one guy alone, ZUN. ZUN is also really freakin' lax with the IP, actively promoting fangames and even composing music for the fangames. Usually, you'd be lucky to get fans composing for official games. In addition, ZUN has stated he wants Touhou in Smash, has expressed interest in Touhou 15.5 on the Switch, and, as mentioned above, Nintendo themselves have distributed Touhou music at a convention before. Sakurai and Nintendo could probably get the rights during a shared brunch with ZUN.
Still, there are some issues standing in Reimu's way for becoming a fighter. One, despite it's many achievements, it's still fairly niche. Second, it's not as well known in the West, even if it's become more available there in recent times. Thirdly, Reimu still has competition from other indies, such as Shovel Knight and Shantae. Even if I think Touhou is bigger, Nintendo may see differently. Of course, nobody says there has to be only one indie, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms that are best opened another time.
Still, I'm confident in Touhou getting representation of some kind, even if it;s just a Reimu Mii or a Spirit Event. It's very iconic and very easy to obtain the rights to, and I'll be surprised if there's nothing at the end of it all. Besides, we live in a world where we have Joker and Terry. We could easily be blindsided with Reimu, and I'm very much sold on her chances as a fighter.
Want: 100%. If you can't tell from the essay I wrote above, I'm very passionate about Touhou. Reimu has a unique design, would have a unique moveset that represents a genre currently unrepresented, would bring a ton of cameos with her, and the music. There's so, so much good music from Touhou, and it takes up half of what I listen to nowadays-And I play music when I'm just surfing the web, so I'm listening to Touhou music a lot. Reimu is my most wanted by a long shot, and I would be through the roof if she got in.
Oh, and have I mentioned that a fanmade scroll of Touhou characters actually got put in a British museum? Because that actually happened. For context, it's to show correlation between historical and contemporary expression. Still, to get put up there is saying a lot. I also believe said museum houses the Rosetta Stone, but to say that is so absurd I'm kinda having some trouble believing that. Go look that up if you'd like.
Yes, Touhou's fairly niche outside of Japan, but it's not to the same level as, say, Mysterious Murasame Castle or MOTHER 3. A lot of Touhou games have been ported to Steam. While they're mostly left untranslated save for 15.5, that's only because the fans just make their own translation after a couple days, so ZUN doesn't have to make one himself.
In addition, Touhou's had a ton of crossovers, including Hello Kitty. Yeah, you're probably looking at me funny on the other side of the screen, but remember this: Hello Kitty is the second biggest franchise period, surpassing the likes of Mickey Mouse, Winnie the Pooh, and Star Wars, and only being beaten out by Nintendo's own Pokemon. In addition, it was stated that this crossover is because of Touhou's rising popularity with younger audiences, which would allow for a broader area of appeal for if Reimu ever got in Smash.
Still, Touhou is fairly niche. So why am I so confident in Reimu's chances? Well, for one, Touhou is an indie game, and arguably the biggest indie series there is. Other indies like Sans and Shovel Knight haven't been able to be playable (Well, not yet, in the possible case for Shovel Knight). but it shows Nintendo is willing to represent indies in some way.
Not only that, but Touhou isn't owned by a large corporate body like, say, Activision or Square Enix, but by one guy alone, ZUN. ZUN is also really freakin' lax with the IP, actively promoting fangames and even composing music for the fangames. Usually, you'd be lucky to get fans composing for official games. In addition, ZUN has stated he wants Touhou in Smash, has expressed interest in Touhou 15.5 on the Switch, and, as mentioned above, Nintendo themselves have distributed Touhou music at a convention before. Sakurai and Nintendo could probably get the rights during a shared brunch with ZUN.
Still, there are some issues standing in Reimu's way for becoming a fighter. One, despite it's many achievements, it's still fairly niche. Second, it's not as well known in the West, even if it's become more available there in recent times. Thirdly, Reimu still has competition from other indies, such as Shovel Knight and Shantae. Even if I think Touhou is bigger, Nintendo may see differently. Of course, nobody says there has to be only one indie, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms that are best opened another time.
Still, I'm confident in Touhou getting representation of some kind, even if it;s just a Reimu Mii or a Spirit Event. It's very iconic and very easy to obtain the rights to, and I'll be surprised if there's nothing at the end of it all. Besides, we live in a world where we have Joker and Terry. We could easily be blindsided with Reimu, and I'm very much sold on her chances as a fighter.
Want: 100%. If you can't tell from the essay I wrote above, I'm very passionate about Touhou. Reimu has a unique design, would have a unique moveset that represents a genre currently unrepresented, would bring a ton of cameos with her, and the music. There's so, so much good music from Touhou, and it takes up half of what I listen to nowadays-And I play music when I'm just surfing the web, so I'm listening to Touhou music a lot. Reimu is my most wanted by a long shot, and I would be through the roof if she got in.
Arle Nadja:
Chance: 70%. Puyo Puyo's a pretty popular game, and makes a lot of cameos in other Sega titles. Arle's a fairly popular request too. Still, she has competition from Kiryu, Sakura, and another Sonic rep. It could be any of those characters, plus a crazy left-fielder. Still, at least those fans are civil about it.
Want: 70%. I'm not a major fan of Puyo Puyo, but it seems pretty fun and absolutely hilarious. I may not actively hope for Arle, but I'd be pretty content if she was a fighter.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 18.95%
Lyn: 9.63%
Midna: 12.87%
Nomination: Klonoa x5
I'm gonna get a lot of counterarguments for that essay, aren't I?
Let's see here...
- She has described drinking as her way of worshipping the gods.
- She's not quite divine, but she can channel deities (Not that she uses the ability that much) and her Fantasy Nature ability makes her become invincible by floating away from reality, so she's pretty OP.
- Her duty is to watch the Hakurei Shrine, which generates the border of Gensokyo, where Touhou takes place in, and to exterminate youkai.
- Touhou's Spell Card system allows for humans and youkai to fight on equal levels while also preventing any form of serious injury, meaning characters fight at the drop of the hat, meaning Reimu's go-to strategy for dealing with incidents is literally just beating people up until she finds the culprit.
Yeah, I'd say that's pretty accurate.
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TimidKitsune129
Falling into Infinity
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Eh sure, I'll play along just for today.
I'll abstain on Arle.
Reimu
Chance: 50%
I don't think people realize how huge Touhou is in Japan. It is one of the oldest and most prolific indie game series that is still going strong even today. The amount of videos, comics, fan art, fan games, and other such derivative works is absolutely enormous. The character designs, visual spectacle of the game-play, and especially the music contribute to Touhou's massive popularity in Japan. It helps tremendously that ZUN, creator and rights owner of Touhou, is really lax on his restrictions when it comes to people making fan-work of his creation. Touhou's popularity isn't as massive in the west as it is in Japan, but even still it has left a big mark in internet culture. Quite a few popular internet memes actually originated from Touhou fan-work and you probably didn't even notice!
The biggest thing in Reimu's favor is the fact that ZUN has outright stated in an interview that he wants Touhou in Smash. Given ZUN's extremely lax restrictions when it comes to others using his work, I'd say its really up to Nintendo on whether they are interested in adding Touhou to Smash, hence why I gave it a 50%.
Want: 100%
Heck yeah, Reimu is awesome.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 10%
Lyn: 2%
Midna: 10%
Nominations: Dr. Baby Wario x5Sure why not
I'll abstain on Arle.
Reimu
Chance: 50%
I don't think people realize how huge Touhou is in Japan. It is one of the oldest and most prolific indie game series that is still going strong even today. The amount of videos, comics, fan art, fan games, and other such derivative works is absolutely enormous. The character designs, visual spectacle of the game-play, and especially the music contribute to Touhou's massive popularity in Japan. It helps tremendously that ZUN, creator and rights owner of Touhou, is really lax on his restrictions when it comes to people making fan-work of his creation. Touhou's popularity isn't as massive in the west as it is in Japan, but even still it has left a big mark in internet culture. Quite a few popular internet memes actually originated from Touhou fan-work and you probably didn't even notice!
The biggest thing in Reimu's favor is the fact that ZUN has outright stated in an interview that he wants Touhou in Smash. Given ZUN's extremely lax restrictions when it comes to others using his work, I'd say its really up to Nintendo on whether they are interested in adding Touhou to Smash, hence why I gave it a 50%.
Want: 100%
Heck yeah, Reimu is awesome.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 10%
Lyn: 2%
Midna: 10%
Nominations: Dr. Baby Wario x5
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Ridrool64
Smash Lord
The birthday girl
Chance: Gonna open up with a blanket 45%, among the likeliest you can be without being more likely to be in than not. Arle is very much a character who would be included to appeal to Japan, being among their oldest requests (and often proving herself one of their most popular) while enjoying rising popularity in the west. But I feel like the way this pass is going (so far) keeps her from being very likely at all. If third parties aren't at a premium, I think they're taking up half the pass at most, so that's only around 3 chances (MAYBE a fourth depending on if CP10 would be one) to get in. While she's pretty much got her series on lock (if we get a Puyo rep or a Madou rep, either way it's her), SEGA may be passed over for this pass. If they aren't? I feel like Arle wins against them overall in relevance/performance/popularity, but not by enough that Kiryu, Axel Stone or even one of the Sakuras couldn't overtake her (especially if their dev teams are more receptive to it). SEGA's very close to Nintendo, supporting them in the Wii U era, so even if statements from ~2017 might make her seem less likely, I feel like the talks for her (should they happen) wouldn't be as tricky or insta-vetoed at first glance. Heck, if Hosoyamada himself is believed to be the problem, I think that ship sailed a while back with the retweet. I doubt he'd, or anybody else at SEGA/Sonic Team, would see it as a problem.
It helps that Arle isn't all take and no give. Nintendo puts a SEGA property in Smash? SEGA can give right back through PPQ collabs. Granted, Phantasy Star Online 2 collabs could also do the trick... but, PPQ is their go-to. Which has crossed over with some pretty nasty stuff.
Want: 100%. Nothing new to add. I've previously posted my take on this before. While I've gotten a lot quieter about it, and have been lending a hand to other things (like what I'd consider underrepresented series), Arle is still my absolute most wanted and the first character I've ever wanted. I'll edit in the link later so I can have this post posted on Arle's birthday, 7/22 (which is today in my timezone, but won't be soon).
Broke
Reimu's coming later. Frisk x 5, and the Zelda non-triforce duo + Lyn are going to have middling scores due to their statuses as Assist Trophies that aren't Waluigi, unless they get Isaac'd and their thread comes in boasting about how likely they are. SK: 10.64%, Midna: 8.40%, Lyn: 1.63%.
Chance: Gonna open up with a blanket 45%, among the likeliest you can be without being more likely to be in than not. Arle is very much a character who would be included to appeal to Japan, being among their oldest requests (and often proving herself one of their most popular) while enjoying rising popularity in the west. But I feel like the way this pass is going (so far) keeps her from being very likely at all. If third parties aren't at a premium, I think they're taking up half the pass at most, so that's only around 3 chances (MAYBE a fourth depending on if CP10 would be one) to get in. While she's pretty much got her series on lock (if we get a Puyo rep or a Madou rep, either way it's her), SEGA may be passed over for this pass. If they aren't? I feel like Arle wins against them overall in relevance/performance/popularity, but not by enough that Kiryu, Axel Stone or even one of the Sakuras couldn't overtake her (especially if their dev teams are more receptive to it). SEGA's very close to Nintendo, supporting them in the Wii U era, so even if statements from ~2017 might make her seem less likely, I feel like the talks for her (should they happen) wouldn't be as tricky or insta-vetoed at first glance. Heck, if Hosoyamada himself is believed to be the problem, I think that ship sailed a while back with the retweet. I doubt he'd, or anybody else at SEGA/Sonic Team, would see it as a problem.
It helps that Arle isn't all take and no give. Nintendo puts a SEGA property in Smash? SEGA can give right back through PPQ collabs. Granted, Phantasy Star Online 2 collabs could also do the trick... but, PPQ is their go-to. Which has crossed over with some pretty nasty stuff.
Pros:
- SEGA has been a very staunch supporter of the Switch. A lot of games, including Puyo Puyo titles, have come out for the Switch. Notably, all of them (in regards to Puyo) are all regions releases. SEGA is also already involved with Smash, so going to them for more content would not be terribly hard. Still true.
- Speaking of that, Puyo Puyo itself got a huge western renaissance in 2017 thanks to the release of Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch (and physical PS4, but the Switch userbase has always been way bigger), and in general has achieved massive popularity on the Switch (relative to its former self) both in terms of the west and in general. Still true, only gets truer with time.
- Arle has recently become a way bigger fan request, especially in the west, while retaining her Japanese popularity. Like, not to brag, but Twitter has shown more than a few fans of the magician getting her due. Still true to an extent, but she definitely has spikes even while still getting a steady increase of support.
- The September incident is, to date, the only time a completely Japan exclusive game released in all territories, untranslated. While no longer the only game to come out in North America for the first time, it still (was the only one to release in all regions as the same game). Considering the widespread availability of SNES Online, I never finished this. This is also now false, as Panel de Pon has achieved the same feat. Point still stands to an extent, though, since Kirby's Avalanche was skipped for no reason while TTC is against Tetris Attack due to not being Tetris.
- Arle's series has a long legacy, but is also relevant and popular today, while being intractable from its genre. This is also important, because in the Byleth Famitsu column, Sakurai noted the tendency of Smash to pick series and characters with more legacy, and this is consistent with the first Fighter's Pass: the youngest series there is Banjo-Kazooie, even if Joker and Byleth are younger, and all five of them come from 20+ year old series that are iconic to fans of their genre. Not incorrect, but Min Min is either a major exception or evidence that this isn't that much of a factor.
- Arle fits the Terry presentation statement, that the fun of a character is at least just as important (if not more) than that the character is recognizable, though ambiguous english wording may make this point a bit more loose. Still true.
- As for the moveset, while magic has been done before, the ability to incorporate Puyo Puyo's mechanics into Smash and have it work out would be something I believe Sakurai could do, and this gives her something that makes her stand out. Still true.
- Alongside Bandai-Namco and Microsoft, SEGA is one of the few third parties in Smash to have no Spirits (right now) and no Mii Costumes outside of either series represented in the base game (Virtua Fighter was represented in the base game) or a series with a Challenger Pack. I believe this opens the door a bit more to those three, though I would not say they help significantly nor do they hurt Capcom/Konami significantly. Still true, barely in Bamco's case.
- That retweet is probably not directly indicative of Arle getting in, but I interpret it as a positive way, that Hosoyamada is fine with Super Smash Bros. and likely wouldn't reject an appearance in Smash like people believed a while back. Granted, this is pure speculation, and it could easily be about FE anyway so I wouldn't put too much stock into this. Still true.
- Almost all of the above points are significant because of how they've been adding up since 2017, turning her from a barely a hoper to a darkhorse into somebody who more than a few consider an actual candidate, some even a frontrunner. But the thing is, all of them are counting on Volume 2 being made in 2017 to 2019. Arle is perhaps the most dependant character on this, losing perhaps everything that makes her likely and becoming almost hopeless. There's no worries of the pass being picked back then, otherwise we wouldn't have Min Min.
- Her popularity in general is still mostly confined to Japan, and while this isn't a dealbreaker it does put her chances into question at least somewhat. Still true.
- If Spirit Promotions are a thing, her biggest competitor is likely a secondary Sonic the Hedgehog character, most likely Dr. Eggman. Otherwise, then there's also Kazuma Kiryu, of Yakuza fame, and Sakura (either) from Sakura Wars. Both of them are also popular, though not as much as Puyo Puyo, but may or may not have been easier to get. Still true.
- I don't think she stands a chance at a Mii Costume, because none of them really fit her and she can't really have a sword or gun-like weapon to use, so I think she's safe from those. But, the possibility of getting a Spirit stands, because the new Zelda fits her. Granted, if she got a Spirit event, it would be because she fell through, but still. No content for now, so still true.
Want: 100%. Nothing new to add. I've previously posted my take on this before. While I've gotten a lot quieter about it, and have been lending a hand to other things (like what I'd consider underrepresented series), Arle is still my absolute most wanted and the first character I've ever wanted. I'll edit in the link later so I can have this post posted on Arle's birthday, 7/22 (which is today in my timezone, but won't be soon).
Broke
Reimu's coming later. Frisk x 5, and the Zelda non-triforce duo + Lyn are going to have middling scores due to their statuses as Assist Trophies that aren't Waluigi, unless they get Isaac'd and their thread comes in boasting about how likely they are. SK: 10.64%, Midna: 8.40%, Lyn: 1.63%.
Phoenix Douchebag
Smash Lord
ANIMU GIRL 1: ARLE from Robotnik's Bean Mean Machine.
Chance: 25%
If this was Fighter Pass 1, i couldn't tell you if would rate her higher or lower. We may have already gotten Joker from SEGA/Atlus, but i can see them going for another round for FP2, and i think Arle is the clear candidate here. While in the rest of the world Sonic the Hedgehog is undoubtedly THE Mascot for Sega, in Japan...........here's more of an artifact. Yakuza and Puyo Puyo are likely more popular there. and between the two i easily see her getting in.
Puyo Puyo is a looooong franchise with a strong history. It started out as a Spin Off of Madou Monogatari, a series of Dungeon Crawler games that ended up beign overshadowed by its cutesy Puzzle Spin Off in the long run. While originally suffering from the Doki Doki syndrome (changing the main cast for more recognizable characters like Kirby or Dr Robotnik) the series's brand has become important enough for its main cast to be front and center, no replacements.
As for Nintendo presence, ever since the GBA with Puyo Pop, the first Puyo game developed by Sonic Team after Compile sold the rights to them (which happened JUST around the time Sega went third party, ironically enough) and has had a presence in every Nintendo console ever since, with Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch beign one of the earliest and most notable titles on that platform. The fact that Puyo Puyo managed to cross over with one of the most popular games of all time and the second best selling game after Minecraft is no slouch on this franchise's part. I'll argue that this series is among most important Puzzle series around alongside the afromentioned Tetris and also Dr Mario. There's also the fact that Arle could represent both the Puyo Puyo AND Madou series, but the rights to the latter are apparently a ****ing mess so maybe not. Oh and the idea of a puzzle based moveset could give time for Sakurai to flex his Moveset idea muscles (Dr. Mario just shoots Pills, that barely reflects his game of origin)
So why i don't rate her higher when in Paper she sounds like a great candidate? Well, namely Min Min. I don't think a First Party Pass is likely, but i could see 1 or 2 more first parties joining in (namely Bandanna Dee and maybe even Dixie if im lucky) and that means 1. Less room and 2. More competition for her. She is VERY requested in Smash..............in Japan. While the Puyo Puyo series is finally getting a bigger audience in the rest of the world, the popularity of Arle or the idea of her as a character in Smash is barely speculated compared to other third parties and i do think Sakurai would like to add a character that is not so skewed towards Japanese tastes. Then again, this could be a Hero situation where the legacy of the franchise is enough to overshadow this, and i think Arle while not a obvious choice, is a very possible character that could sneak up on us Dark Horse Victory style.
Definetly worth keeping an eye on her, just watch out for those damn Garbage Puyo.
Want: 0%
Yeah sorry girl, Alex is my choice for another Sega character, although if im honest i would rather NOT have another Sega character in Smash should i be given the choice. Well, except for one, but that ship has loooooong sailed. Plus i SUCK at Puzzle Games so i have no attachment to this series or franchise at all.
ANIMU GIRL 2: EAT THE ****ING APPLE.
Chance: 15%
Now this..............is interesing. Look, when people say Indies, most imagine a one off small game or little series that only started in the late 2000s and early 2010s that recently got ported to Consoles...........Touhou is not that. Not only does this franchise have over 20 games (far more than other franchises represented in Smash like Fire Emblem, Metroid, and maybe even some Third Parties) it's very damn old. The very first game was released for PC 98...........in 1997. This series predates Banjo Kazooie and SMASH. It's been featured on Swtich!.................in a way.
Another interesing detail about Touhou is its relation to Fan Products. Not only does the creator aprove of the Fan Content, he embraces and encourages it, due to the series's heavy focus on Doujin (basically self-published independent works, both original and based on existing properties). So much so that There's a Dojin Distributor called "PLAY DOUJIN!" that does nothing but publish official Doujin Touhou games on non-PC platforms, including the Switch, and Yes, these games have been released worldwide (hell i remember seeing a Nintendo Switch Physical Copy of a Touhou game in my local Mall Plaza in Chile, back when Corona Meant beer) so while the presence of "official" Touhou games on Nintendo may be small, the fans have basically given it life on that platform (obviously with the creator's blessing). They rival Sonic's fanbase when it comes to fan projects, both amazing and "creppy" (trust me) it's just that Zun operates in a different world from Sega when it comes to copyright so Touhou's fan-projects are more visible.
Oh and Zun wants a Touhou character in Smash, but that's not surprising at all. At this point i would be more surprised to some developers saying NO.
So why is she is so low? Again, low worldwide popularity like Arle, but Reimu's case it's even worse. Unlike Arle's franchise Touhou is STILL very unkown outside of its target audience: The "Otaku" (or nowadays "Weeb") crowd. This is what you call and "underground" franchise, it' has a vocal and passionate following but it's not super large and it's from a completely different realm from the Smash's fanbase (hell, even the casual Smash players) interests and tastes, and that already kills a lot of her chances in my eyes, that and the whole competition and first party things, this only makes it worse for Reimu. It's mostly because of the franchise's themes and concepts though. Unlike Puyo above, where the only japanese thing was the focus on cutesy stuff, Touhou takes pride and joy in beign HEAVILY based on Eastern Mythology and ideas, it's even in the name ( Touhou means "Eastern") and such it features many concepts and folkore only those heavily familiar with them could understand what is essentially one of the main appeals of this franchise.
Yeah Reimu is sort of becoming more talked about now, but it's still a really unpopular choice for Smash all around. Even in Japan, where her most of her fanbase resides, she's not usually that super requested requested either. Others like Bandanna Dee, Steve, Rex and even Sora are more popular there when it comes to Smash newcomer ideas. By the time people got to talk about Reimu in a larger capacity, the base roster, Fighter Pass 1 and maybe even Fighter Pass 2 have already been made. It's not the fan requests NOW that matter, but those that happened before Ultimate and/or its DLC Started development, like Banjo's massive support in 2015. Arle on the other hand, actually had support as early as the Smash Ballot days, and that suppor has been slowly but surely growing in Japan AND the rest of the world. Compare that to Reimu, where you have some Japanese Support, and very, very small Worldwide Support. I don't even remember Reimu's name beign even mentioned ONCE in the Smash 4 days or the Smash 4 DLC days or even the Smash Ultimate base roster days (guess the Grinch hogged all the attention)
There's Hero, but Hero is basically seen as one of the pioneers of one of the most popular Genres in Japan and Gaming as a whole. Terry is only unpopular in America, America Is NOT "The West", there's also Mexico, Central America and the entirity of South America , most areas where Terry is actually well known and loved.
I gotta agree with that one user who i cannnot remember their name, Reimu feels like a character /V/ is trying to meme into existence.
TL;DR *Insert Double D's "In Japan" Quote here*
Want: 0%
Yeah no thanks either. Im not a fan of Touhou or its themes, ideas, folklore that features (at least, no in the way it uses them) Yeah the music is great, but Smash has like 1000 songs at this point and now im starting to prefer to idea of cutting filler songs in Ult instead of wishing for more.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 6.17% Chance/57.69% Want
Orumiru's Waifu: 1.21% Chance/20.01% Want.
**** You: 2.35% Chance/30.34% Want.
EDIT: changed the Chance Score to 15%, felt more accuarate to my thoughts.
Chance: 25%
If this was Fighter Pass 1, i couldn't tell you if would rate her higher or lower. We may have already gotten Joker from SEGA/Atlus, but i can see them going for another round for FP2, and i think Arle is the clear candidate here. While in the rest of the world Sonic the Hedgehog is undoubtedly THE Mascot for Sega, in Japan...........here's more of an artifact. Yakuza and Puyo Puyo are likely more popular there. and between the two i easily see her getting in.
Puyo Puyo is a looooong franchise with a strong history. It started out as a Spin Off of Madou Monogatari, a series of Dungeon Crawler games that ended up beign overshadowed by its cutesy Puzzle Spin Off in the long run. While originally suffering from the Doki Doki syndrome (changing the main cast for more recognizable characters like Kirby or Dr Robotnik) the series's brand has become important enough for its main cast to be front and center, no replacements.
As for Nintendo presence, ever since the GBA with Puyo Pop, the first Puyo game developed by Sonic Team after Compile sold the rights to them (which happened JUST around the time Sega went third party, ironically enough) and has had a presence in every Nintendo console ever since, with Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch beign one of the earliest and most notable titles on that platform. The fact that Puyo Puyo managed to cross over with one of the most popular games of all time and the second best selling game after Minecraft is no slouch on this franchise's part. I'll argue that this series is among most important Puzzle series around alongside the afromentioned Tetris and also Dr Mario. There's also the fact that Arle could represent both the Puyo Puyo AND Madou series, but the rights to the latter are apparently a ****ing mess so maybe not. Oh and the idea of a puzzle based moveset could give time for Sakurai to flex his Moveset idea muscles (Dr. Mario just shoots Pills, that barely reflects his game of origin)
So why i don't rate her higher when in Paper she sounds like a great candidate? Well, namely Min Min. I don't think a First Party Pass is likely, but i could see 1 or 2 more first parties joining in (namely Bandanna Dee and maybe even Dixie if im lucky) and that means 1. Less room and 2. More competition for her. She is VERY requested in Smash..............in Japan. While the Puyo Puyo series is finally getting a bigger audience in the rest of the world, the popularity of Arle or the idea of her as a character in Smash is barely speculated compared to other third parties and i do think Sakurai would like to add a character that is not so skewed towards Japanese tastes. Then again, this could be a Hero situation where the legacy of the franchise is enough to overshadow this, and i think Arle while not a obvious choice, is a very possible character that could sneak up on us Dark Horse Victory style.
Definetly worth keeping an eye on her, just watch out for those damn Garbage Puyo.
Want: 0%
Yeah sorry girl, Alex is my choice for another Sega character, although if im honest i would rather NOT have another Sega character in Smash should i be given the choice. Well, except for one, but that ship has loooooong sailed. Plus i SUCK at Puzzle Games so i have no attachment to this series or franchise at all.
ANIMU GIRL 2: EAT THE ****ING APPLE.
Chance: 15%
Now this..............is interesing. Look, when people say Indies, most imagine a one off small game or little series that only started in the late 2000s and early 2010s that recently got ported to Consoles...........Touhou is not that. Not only does this franchise have over 20 games (far more than other franchises represented in Smash like Fire Emblem, Metroid, and maybe even some Third Parties) it's very damn old. The very first game was released for PC 98...........in 1997. This series predates Banjo Kazooie and SMASH. It's been featured on Swtich!.................in a way.
Another interesing detail about Touhou is its relation to Fan Products. Not only does the creator aprove of the Fan Content, he embraces and encourages it, due to the series's heavy focus on Doujin (basically self-published independent works, both original and based on existing properties). So much so that There's a Dojin Distributor called "PLAY DOUJIN!" that does nothing but publish official Doujin Touhou games on non-PC platforms, including the Switch, and Yes, these games have been released worldwide (hell i remember seeing a Nintendo Switch Physical Copy of a Touhou game in my local Mall Plaza in Chile, back when Corona Meant beer) so while the presence of "official" Touhou games on Nintendo may be small, the fans have basically given it life on that platform (obviously with the creator's blessing). They rival Sonic's fanbase when it comes to fan projects, both amazing and "creppy" (trust me) it's just that Zun operates in a different world from Sega when it comes to copyright so Touhou's fan-projects are more visible.
Oh and Zun wants a Touhou character in Smash, but that's not surprising at all. At this point i would be more surprised to some developers saying NO.
So why is she is so low? Again, low worldwide popularity like Arle, but Reimu's case it's even worse. Unlike Arle's franchise Touhou is STILL very unkown outside of its target audience: The "Otaku" (or nowadays "Weeb") crowd. This is what you call and "underground" franchise, it' has a vocal and passionate following but it's not super large and it's from a completely different realm from the Smash's fanbase (hell, even the casual Smash players) interests and tastes, and that already kills a lot of her chances in my eyes, that and the whole competition and first party things, this only makes it worse for Reimu. It's mostly because of the franchise's themes and concepts though. Unlike Puyo above, where the only japanese thing was the focus on cutesy stuff, Touhou takes pride and joy in beign HEAVILY based on Eastern Mythology and ideas, it's even in the name ( Touhou means "Eastern") and such it features many concepts and folkore only those heavily familiar with them could understand what is essentially one of the main appeals of this franchise.
Yeah Reimu is sort of becoming more talked about now, but it's still a really unpopular choice for Smash all around. Even in Japan, where her most of her fanbase resides, she's not usually that super requested requested either. Others like Bandanna Dee, Steve, Rex and even Sora are more popular there when it comes to Smash newcomer ideas. By the time people got to talk about Reimu in a larger capacity, the base roster, Fighter Pass 1 and maybe even Fighter Pass 2 have already been made. It's not the fan requests NOW that matter, but those that happened before Ultimate and/or its DLC Started development, like Banjo's massive support in 2015. Arle on the other hand, actually had support as early as the Smash Ballot days, and that suppor has been slowly but surely growing in Japan AND the rest of the world. Compare that to Reimu, where you have some Japanese Support, and very, very small Worldwide Support. I don't even remember Reimu's name beign even mentioned ONCE in the Smash 4 days or the Smash 4 DLC days or even the Smash Ultimate base roster days (guess the Grinch hogged all the attention)
There's Hero, but Hero is basically seen as one of the pioneers of one of the most popular Genres in Japan and Gaming as a whole. Terry is only unpopular in America, America Is NOT "The West", there's also Mexico, Central America and the entirity of South America , most areas where Terry is actually well known and loved.
I gotta agree with that one user who i cannnot remember their name, Reimu feels like a character /V/ is trying to meme into existence.
TL;DR *Insert Double D's "In Japan" Quote here*
Want: 0%
Yeah no thanks either. Im not a fan of Touhou or its themes, ideas, folklore that features (at least, no in the way it uses them) Yeah the music is great, but Smash has like 1000 songs at this point and now im starting to prefer to idea of cutting filler songs in Ult instead of wishing for more.
Predictions:
Skull Kid: 6.17% Chance/57.69% Want
Orumiru's Waifu: 1.21% Chance/20.01% Want.
**** You: 2.35% Chance/30.34% Want.
EDIT: changed the Chance Score to 15%, felt more accuarate to my thoughts.
Last edited:
Mushroomguy12
Smash Hero
Reimu
Chance: 70%
Touhou is wildly popular franchise in Japan, which has been an important factor to getting other series in like Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest. It's cultural reach has extended to the millions when it comes to its music and other aspects on the internet. I think it's a real sleeper pick that could definitely make it in.
Want: 100%
I think Reimu would be a great new addition to Smash and she'd bring an interesting new moveset with the bullet hell genre. I also love the music so that's another plus when it comes to the challenger pack.
Arle
Chance: 70%
Puyo Puyo is one of Sega's best selling franchises not yet in the game, and the series has a dedicated fanbase. I'd say she has a decent chance of making it in as she checks all of the correct qualities for a DLC fighter pack.
Want: 100%
I had loads of fun playing her game on Switch Online. I think she'd make a great Puzzle rep, a genre which off the top of my head is mainly repped by the clone, so I'd think she'd bring an interesting new dynamic and moveset to Smash.
Chance: 70%
Touhou is wildly popular franchise in Japan, which has been an important factor to getting other series in like Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest. It's cultural reach has extended to the millions when it comes to its music and other aspects on the internet. I think it's a real sleeper pick that could definitely make it in.
Want: 100%
I think Reimu would be a great new addition to Smash and she'd bring an interesting new moveset with the bullet hell genre. I also love the music so that's another plus when it comes to the challenger pack.
Arle
Chance: 70%
Puyo Puyo is one of Sega's best selling franchises not yet in the game, and the series has a dedicated fanbase. I'd say she has a decent chance of making it in as she checks all of the correct qualities for a DLC fighter pack.
Want: 100%
I had loads of fun playing her game on Switch Online. I think she'd make a great Puzzle rep, a genre which off the top of my head is mainly repped by the clone
, so I'd think she'd bring an interesting new dynamic and moveset to Smash.
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
I wouldn't have normally jumped into this day, but my view on Reimu has grown over time
Reimu
Chance 10%
The Quote day failed to convince me much about Quote's likelihood, but it did bring up to my attention the fact that Reimu stands as an indie. Given the sheer impact of Touhou and the fact it's japanese, as well as all these arguments made regarding the creator, make me think she's actually one of the more likely indies, if not THE most likely indie character. At least in a world where Sans is only a mii costume.
Definitely agree with others that this is one of those "literally who" characters for a lot of the west... but I kind of don't mind that in this instance? I think any indie character (outside of, again, Sans and maybe Shovel Knight) has a high likelihood of being a "literally who" to multiple people out there, but with this instance it's hard to deny the fact that there is an entire sub-culture of gaming and gaming-related content that fall under this umbrella.
Also good music, fun/cute character design, possibility of bullet hell/shmup mechanics in a game that hasn't really repped that genre yet... yea, I think this is a rather unique inclusion that could bring a lot to the series
Want 60%
I have no personal attachment to Touhou, mostly just respect from the outside since I'm aware of its existence and of some of its characters. I would definitely enjoy her addition to the game and would love to try her out, and what gives her a bit of a boost is that I'm into her aesthetic. We haven't really gotten a cute, girly character since Isabelle and I would love to see more of that flavor in this pass.
Arle
Chance 15%
Talk about cute and girly, I also think Arle is reasonably likely given the status of Puyo Puyo and the weird absence of puzzle games outside of Dr. Mario. Especially considering how prevalent connect-three type puzzle games are in the industry.
She's also been fairly visible in terms of popularity and it's a name you hear a lot when talking about possible new smash characters. From this and puyo puyo popularity she's pretty much the most likely Sega character, imo (since I unfortunately don't have much faith in Tails/Robotnik happening).
Want 60%
Almost exactly in the same boat as Reimu. I love her aesthetic and from playing the japanese puyo puyo game on NSO, I found her adorable and rather likable. I'm not super into the series, and this isn't a character I would lose sleep over, but if she happens I'll definitely be down and be grateful of her inclusion.
I'm actually having a hard time deciding if I would prefer Reimu or Arle if given the choice of just one... they're both super likable, and I'd probably give only the slightest edge to Reimu due to Sega already having some of their stuff in Smash. But honestly, either of them are a win in my book.
Reimu
Chance 10%
The Quote day failed to convince me much about Quote's likelihood, but it did bring up to my attention the fact that Reimu stands as an indie. Given the sheer impact of Touhou and the fact it's japanese, as well as all these arguments made regarding the creator, make me think she's actually one of the more likely indies, if not THE most likely indie character. At least in a world where Sans is only a mii costume.
Definitely agree with others that this is one of those "literally who" characters for a lot of the west... but I kind of don't mind that in this instance? I think any indie character (outside of, again, Sans and maybe Shovel Knight) has a high likelihood of being a "literally who" to multiple people out there, but with this instance it's hard to deny the fact that there is an entire sub-culture of gaming and gaming-related content that fall under this umbrella.
Also good music, fun/cute character design, possibility of bullet hell/shmup mechanics in a game that hasn't really repped that genre yet... yea, I think this is a rather unique inclusion that could bring a lot to the series
Want 60%
I have no personal attachment to Touhou, mostly just respect from the outside since I'm aware of its existence and of some of its characters. I would definitely enjoy her addition to the game and would love to try her out, and what gives her a bit of a boost is that I'm into her aesthetic. We haven't really gotten a cute, girly character since Isabelle and I would love to see more of that flavor in this pass.
Arle
Chance 15%
Talk about cute and girly, I also think Arle is reasonably likely given the status of Puyo Puyo and the weird absence of puzzle games outside of Dr. Mario. Especially considering how prevalent connect-three type puzzle games are in the industry.
She's also been fairly visible in terms of popularity and it's a name you hear a lot when talking about possible new smash characters. From this and puyo puyo popularity she's pretty much the most likely Sega character, imo (since I unfortunately don't have much faith in Tails/Robotnik happening).
Want 60%
Almost exactly in the same boat as Reimu. I love her aesthetic and from playing the japanese puyo puyo game on NSO, I found her adorable and rather likable. I'm not super into the series, and this isn't a character I would lose sleep over, but if she happens I'll definitely be down and be grateful of her inclusion.
I'm actually having a hard time deciding if I would prefer Reimu or Arle if given the choice of just one... they're both super likable, and I'd probably give only the slightest edge to Reimu due to Sega already having some of their stuff in Smash. But honestly, either of them are a win in my book.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Brief thoughts on these two, I can't think of anything that makes their chances different after Min Min but I'm too tired to look for my old ratings so this will just be kind of a ramble, sorry
First off, I'm seeing some scores that are way too high imo. A sleeper pick or a darkhorse isn't a 50+ chance, just because something could blindside us doesn't automatically make it likely.
That out of the way...
Reimu
Chance: 19%
I'm more willing to bet against Indies than for them at this point, but Reimu is one of the few I could see getting in. Her impact in gaming isn't to be understated, a lot has been made about her being huge in Japan and that's true. However, I don't think a character that is only important in Japan deserves to be in Smash; a game like that is less part of a gaming pantheon and more of a footnote in history. Reimu and Touhou have global impact, and that's the key here. Sakurai and Nintendo are bound to know that, and that, plus her somewhat noticeable popularity, could get her in. But then again, she's also perfect Mii Costume material, right down to coming from a game famous for its music. Uh oh...
Want: 90%
I like Touhou, Reimu is a great character, and it would be fun to see danmaku translated into Smash.
Arle
Chance: 9%
Reports of her chances have been greatly exaggerated. I'm kidding, I just wanted to use that quote. But, yeah, not seeing it. Mostly for two reasons. One, Sega really wants Yakuza to carry with its momentum - on a tangent, it's baffling how just when Yakuza was on the verge of a worldwide explosion they decided to ditch Kiryu and change genres. But still, Yakuza is pretty much Sega's second franchise nowadays, it's on Nintendo and Kiryu bizarrely fits Smash, so I don't see why they would go for him. Number two, those comments about the characters in Puyo Puyo not being allowed to fight and stuff really hunts her imo, unless I see any evidence to the contrary I can't be too big on her chances (same with, for example, the recent comments about the Mario cast). It's a shame, because if it weren't for that, she'd have a pretty great shot on her own, what with her popularity and the history of the franchise(s) she hails from.
Want: 0%
Normally I rate characters according to how much I feel they deserve it. I'm very enthusiastic about gaming history, so even on the unlikely event that I'm not familiar with a series or not particularly fond of it, it'll get a high score from me if it has a certain claim to fame.
Arle is the exception. I want Lip in Smash. And while I think there's room for both, I'm not about to risk Sakurai or Nintendo disagreeing, so let's get Lip in first just to be safe. Sorry Arle, but if it means anything, if Lip gets in your want score changes to 90%
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Skull Kid prediction: 11.06%
Midna prediction: 5.43%
Lyn prediction: been a while since we last rated Lyn, huh? I'll go with... 10.78%, but she could go higher if the Fire Emblem boogeyman extends even to decade-old ATs
First off, I'm seeing some scores that are way too high imo. A sleeper pick or a darkhorse isn't a 50+ chance, just because something could blindside us doesn't automatically make it likely.
That out of the way...
Reimu
Chance: 19%
I'm more willing to bet against Indies than for them at this point, but Reimu is one of the few I could see getting in. Her impact in gaming isn't to be understated, a lot has been made about her being huge in Japan and that's true. However, I don't think a character that is only important in Japan deserves to be in Smash; a game like that is less part of a gaming pantheon and more of a footnote in history. Reimu and Touhou have global impact, and that's the key here. Sakurai and Nintendo are bound to know that, and that, plus her somewhat noticeable popularity, could get her in. But then again, she's also perfect Mii Costume material, right down to coming from a game famous for its music. Uh oh...
Want: 90%
I like Touhou, Reimu is a great character, and it would be fun to see danmaku translated into Smash.
Arle
Chance: 9%
Reports of her chances have been greatly exaggerated. I'm kidding, I just wanted to use that quote. But, yeah, not seeing it. Mostly for two reasons. One, Sega really wants Yakuza to carry with its momentum - on a tangent, it's baffling how just when Yakuza was on the verge of a worldwide explosion they decided to ditch Kiryu and change genres. But still, Yakuza is pretty much Sega's second franchise nowadays, it's on Nintendo and Kiryu bizarrely fits Smash, so I don't see why they would go for him. Number two, those comments about the characters in Puyo Puyo not being allowed to fight and stuff really hunts her imo, unless I see any evidence to the contrary I can't be too big on her chances (same with, for example, the recent comments about the Mario cast). It's a shame, because if it weren't for that, she'd have a pretty great shot on her own, what with her popularity and the history of the franchise(s) she hails from.
Want: 0%
Normally I rate characters according to how much I feel they deserve it. I'm very enthusiastic about gaming history, so even on the unlikely event that I'm not familiar with a series or not particularly fond of it, it'll get a high score from me if it has a certain claim to fame.
Arle is the exception. I want Lip in Smash. And while I think there's room for both, I'm not about to risk Sakurai or Nintendo disagreeing, so let's get Lip in first just to be safe. Sorry Arle, but if it means anything, if Lip gets in your want score changes to 90%
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Skull Kid prediction: 11.06%
Midna prediction: 5.43%
Lyn prediction: been a while since we last rated Lyn, huh? I'll go with... 10.78%, but she could go higher if the Fire Emblem boogeyman extends even to decade-old ATs
Are these joke noms or is this for real?
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Concept: A non-white/Asian human character x215
Tidus x190
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x165
Shuichi Saihara x141
[Rerate] Ezio x140
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x140
150 - 101
Alex Mason x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
[Rerate] Frisk x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x105
100 - 51
Billy Hatcher x100
Echo: Xion (Sora) x84
Sakura Shinguji x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Concept: Deltarune content x72
Klonoa x65
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x65
The Terrarian x60
Concept: Rocket League rep x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x52
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
Dr. Goomba Tower x40
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Amiya (Arknights) x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5
Tetra x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Tidus x190
Moogle x175
Nate Adams x165
Shuichi Saihara x141
[Rerate] Ezio x140
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x140
150 - 101
Alex Mason x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x121
The Stretchers x120
[Rerate] Frisk x120
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x105
100 - 51
Billy Hatcher x100
Echo: Xion (Sora) x84
Sakura Shinguji x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x80
Riptor x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Concept: Deltarune content x72
Klonoa x65
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x65
The Terrarian x60
Concept: Rocket League rep x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x55
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x54
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x52
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
Dr. Goomba Tower x40
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x40
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Under 25
Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Black Shadow x20
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x20
Boss: Rayquaza x19
Echo (Olimar) x16
Zeraora x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Amiya (Arknights) x15
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x10
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5
Tetra x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) is now over 100 noms.
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep conjures over 50 noms.
A new challenger's been sighted! It's Tetra, with 5 noms to her name!
Honest Slug
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2018
- Messages
- 426
Arle
Chance: 40%
Of the 2 characters today, Arle is the one I could actually imagine being a sleeper pick of sorts (Well at least among the wider Smash community) as Puyo Puyo is an absolutely massive series in Japan. Sure it isn't much of a thing in the west, but I think it's sorta a Dragon Quest situation where it gets games localized in the west just enough to where it can be considered in contention. I also think it's worth mentioning just how big puzzle games are. Just look at how much Tetris has sold. Puyo Puyo isn't Tetris big, but having puzzle games represented with a fighter makes a lot of sense just to represent gaming history. It also helps that most Japanese fan polls I've seen have Arle in the top contenders. So she's got a lot going for her, but I just can't put her higher without there being solid evidence she'll get in. There's also a lot of characters with stuff going for them, and there's only 5 more slots. Just the nature of speculation.
Want: 40%
I've grown on the idea of her being in. My only experience with Puyo Puyo is getting wrecked on Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine, so I have little afection for the series. But I think there's enough here to make a unique fighter separate her from that to where I'd at least be neutral about it.
Reimu
Chance: 1%
I really don't want to sound mean, but sometimes I feel like I'm in an alternate dimension when I see all these 50 and above chance scores. I'm just really perplexed to this as I see basically very little direct evidence pointing to her and a massive hill to climb.
I'd really like an indie to make it in Smash someday. That's why I was really pulling for Shovel Knight back during the ballot Era, but let's not kid ourselves, there is zero incentive for Nintendo to add an indie representative to Smash as a DLC fighter. I might be willing to cut Reimu some slack here if Sakurai was choosing these characters, as he does like his wacky picks. However he is not.
From Nintendo's perspective Reimu is too obscure and not popular enough (Back in 2019, this Reimu surge atm has no bearing on decisions made beforehand) for her to be a hype pick. ZUN is literally just some dude, and Touhou is simply too niche for a partnership to be of high priority. It just doesn't make much sense from the business perspective when there's certainly at least 5 other third parties that'd be more lucrative. And when it comes to representing indies, she has to compete with Steve, from one of the most gargantuan games of all-time. Not only that, but the vastly more popular Cuphead and Undertale, both getting mii costumes, suggests to me that's the most she'll get. Now you might say her Japanese origin helps, but even then, I'd argue Quote from Cave Story would still be more likely, as he's still very old while being from a much more iconic and internationally recognized game, that's also from Japan.
Maybe I sound like I'm underselling Touhou's legacy here, but I don't think Nintendo is deciding this roster based off Twitch emotes and 4chan culture. And once you look outside those areas, Reimu is basically a non-entity in the west, and in Japan, there are characters that have much more going for them, and in terms of indies, I just don't think they care, and if they do care, Minecraft Steve is much more likely. To be blunt I think Premium Mii costumes show how Nintendo is willing to let indies in on the smashing. and if she gets in, I think that's how she'll get in.
Want: Abstain
Just don't know enough.
Chance: 40%
Of the 2 characters today, Arle is the one I could actually imagine being a sleeper pick of sorts (Well at least among the wider Smash community) as Puyo Puyo is an absolutely massive series in Japan. Sure it isn't much of a thing in the west, but I think it's sorta a Dragon Quest situation where it gets games localized in the west just enough to where it can be considered in contention. I also think it's worth mentioning just how big puzzle games are. Just look at how much Tetris has sold. Puyo Puyo isn't Tetris big, but having puzzle games represented with a fighter makes a lot of sense just to represent gaming history. It also helps that most Japanese fan polls I've seen have Arle in the top contenders. So she's got a lot going for her, but I just can't put her higher without there being solid evidence she'll get in. There's also a lot of characters with stuff going for them, and there's only 5 more slots. Just the nature of speculation.
Want: 40%
I've grown on the idea of her being in. My only experience with Puyo Puyo is getting wrecked on Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine, so I have little afection for the series. But I think there's enough here to make a unique fighter separate her from that to where I'd at least be neutral about it.
Reimu
Chance: 1%
I really don't want to sound mean, but sometimes I feel like I'm in an alternate dimension when I see all these 50 and above chance scores. I'm just really perplexed to this as I see basically very little direct evidence pointing to her and a massive hill to climb.
I'd really like an indie to make it in Smash someday. That's why I was really pulling for Shovel Knight back during the ballot Era, but let's not kid ourselves, there is zero incentive for Nintendo to add an indie representative to Smash as a DLC fighter. I might be willing to cut Reimu some slack here if Sakurai was choosing these characters, as he does like his wacky picks. However he is not.
From Nintendo's perspective Reimu is too obscure and not popular enough (Back in 2019, this Reimu surge atm has no bearing on decisions made beforehand) for her to be a hype pick. ZUN is literally just some dude, and Touhou is simply too niche for a partnership to be of high priority. It just doesn't make much sense from the business perspective when there's certainly at least 5 other third parties that'd be more lucrative. And when it comes to representing indies, she has to compete with Steve, from one of the most gargantuan games of all-time. Not only that, but the vastly more popular Cuphead and Undertale, both getting mii costumes, suggests to me that's the most she'll get. Now you might say her Japanese origin helps, but even then, I'd argue Quote from Cave Story would still be more likely, as he's still very old while being from a much more iconic and internationally recognized game, that's also from Japan.
Maybe I sound like I'm underselling Touhou's legacy here, but I don't think Nintendo is deciding this roster based off Twitch emotes and 4chan culture. And once you look outside those areas, Reimu is basically a non-entity in the west, and in Japan, there are characters that have much more going for them, and in terms of indies, I just don't think they care, and if they do care, Minecraft Steve is much more likely. To be blunt I think Premium Mii costumes show how Nintendo is willing to let indies in on the smashing. and if she gets in, I think that's how she'll get in.
Want: Abstain
Just don't know enough.
Last edited:
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,233
Reimu Hakurei
Chance: 5% - I honestly think her chances are greatly exagerrated, and like a lot of characters mainly got discussion due to leaks (with one of the big ones in her favor, Milk-BOSATU, turning out to be likely referring to Min Min). She certainly is HUGE in Japan, but only in Japan, and as a result the series primarily relies on fantranslations. Not exactly something to be proud of if one thinks the series is globally huge. There's a reason why we don't have Takamaru and nearly didn't receive Lucas. And while Touhou does have its' western fans, (and Undertale certainly helps), it is still very niche and hasn't grown in the way most people think it has. ****, most Touhou fans I've met were those who got into it back in the 2009-2011 days when it actually was big online. But since then it has died down considerably. Touhou memes are no longer popular, and competition that pulled away much of its' old fanbase (Kancolle, Azur Lane, Granblue, Girls Frontline, etc) splintered it heavily. While it does have a relatively sizable fanbase still, people really tend to overstate it. Reimu is no household name
There's also the competition from other indies and just the ceiling she has to overcome. Fellow one-person-negotiation indie Undertale only got a costume, while indie boom-creator Cave Story has yet to be represented. Furthermore, Shantae is now back on the table, and both her and Quote (along with other indies like Hollow Knight) have much greater fan demand and are actually known globally. and with only one fangame on the Switch, I can't see Nintendo seeing Touhou as this massive priority, especially with five character slots left.
Granted, Touhou's influence in Japan is undeniable and she certainly has the legacy that sakurai would love. Plus the crossovers between Touhou and Kirby games would definitely be a positive in his book. Though she seems like more of a Sakurai pick and not a Nintendo pick, and Nintendo's calling the shots, so we'll have to wait and see. She has a lot of points in her favor (which everyone else has already stated so I apologize for the overly negative rating), but some massive hills to climb.
Gonna repost my want from last time:
Arle Nadja
Chance: 30% - While most of her fanbase is concentrated in Japan, she actually has managed to have a decent following in the west and is quite well-known, which is admirable, Puyo's gotten some official competitions, plenty of Nintendo representation (with recent success in Puyo Puyo Tetris), and has had its' games localized since 2006. It is also SEGA's second most popular and successful IP behind the Blue Hedgehog himself, so she makes sense for a lot of reasons. Puyo Puyo was also released on NSO recently (albeit untranslated, and it no longer has this distinction now that Panel de Pon is there). SEGA also continues its' positive working relationship with Nintendo, and with continual releases the future is looking bright for Arle. She also has a great deal of fan demand and her unique gameplay and historical aspects would definitely be great for Sakurai.
Arle, though, still has some hurdles to overcome. While growing, she's still rather niche and while her fanbase is huge in Japan, fan demand alone isn't enough to get a character. There's also major inter-company competition. Yakuza (until it lost a ton of momentum) was having an international explosion and SEGA chose to really push Yakuza instead as a big second franchise. Alongside that, with spirits back on the table, big Sonic characters like Tails and Eggman provide competition in the form of a second Sonic rep, and Nintendo may see them are more lucrative due to their greater reach. There's also the director's statements on the characters being violent, but that's honestly a toss up at this point (especially given the violent stuff Arle did on Madou Monogatari). Either way, Arle is still a very realistic choice and has a solid shot at the roster, even if she has a few hurdles!
Though one more question I must ask...
...is Arle even the main character anymore? All of the modern Puyo art I see has that blonde with the red puyo hat front and center, while Arle is usually either off to the side or absent entirely.
Want: 15% - I certainly wouldn't be opposed to her. Her cute design and unique gameplay certainly brings a lot to the table! Though, my most wanted SEGA rep is by and far a second Sonic rep (seriously, Sonic deserves it!) so Arle unfortunately isn't high on my want list. But if she did get in I'd certainly respect the choice!
Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Predictions:
Lyn - 3.54%
Midna - 2.65%
Skull Kid - 11.43% - The recent Candence DLC reveal will definitely give people a boost of confidence in him.
Chance: 5% - I honestly think her chances are greatly exagerrated, and like a lot of characters mainly got discussion due to leaks (with one of the big ones in her favor, Milk-BOSATU, turning out to be likely referring to Min Min). She certainly is HUGE in Japan, but only in Japan, and as a result the series primarily relies on fantranslations. Not exactly something to be proud of if one thinks the series is globally huge. There's a reason why we don't have Takamaru and nearly didn't receive Lucas. And while Touhou does have its' western fans, (and Undertale certainly helps), it is still very niche and hasn't grown in the way most people think it has. ****, most Touhou fans I've met were those who got into it back in the 2009-2011 days when it actually was big online. But since then it has died down considerably. Touhou memes are no longer popular, and competition that pulled away much of its' old fanbase (Kancolle, Azur Lane, Granblue, Girls Frontline, etc) splintered it heavily. While it does have a relatively sizable fanbase still, people really tend to overstate it. Reimu is no household name
There's also the competition from other indies and just the ceiling she has to overcome. Fellow one-person-negotiation indie Undertale only got a costume, while indie boom-creator Cave Story has yet to be represented. Furthermore, Shantae is now back on the table, and both her and Quote (along with other indies like Hollow Knight) have much greater fan demand and are actually known globally. and with only one fangame on the Switch, I can't see Nintendo seeing Touhou as this massive priority, especially with five character slots left.
Granted, Touhou's influence in Japan is undeniable and she certainly has the legacy that sakurai would love. Plus the crossovers between Touhou and Kirby games would definitely be a positive in his book. Though she seems like more of a Sakurai pick and not a Nintendo pick, and Nintendo's calling the shots, so we'll have to wait and see. She has a lot of points in her favor (which everyone else has already stated so I apologize for the overly negative rating), but some massive hills to climb.
Gonna repost my want from last time:
Arle Nadja
Chance: 30% - While most of her fanbase is concentrated in Japan, she actually has managed to have a decent following in the west and is quite well-known, which is admirable, Puyo's gotten some official competitions, plenty of Nintendo representation (with recent success in Puyo Puyo Tetris), and has had its' games localized since 2006. It is also SEGA's second most popular and successful IP behind the Blue Hedgehog himself, so she makes sense for a lot of reasons. Puyo Puyo was also released on NSO recently (albeit untranslated, and it no longer has this distinction now that Panel de Pon is there). SEGA also continues its' positive working relationship with Nintendo, and with continual releases the future is looking bright for Arle. She also has a great deal of fan demand and her unique gameplay and historical aspects would definitely be great for Sakurai.
Arle, though, still has some hurdles to overcome. While growing, she's still rather niche and while her fanbase is huge in Japan, fan demand alone isn't enough to get a character. There's also major inter-company competition. Yakuza (until it lost a ton of momentum) was having an international explosion and SEGA chose to really push Yakuza instead as a big second franchise. Alongside that, with spirits back on the table, big Sonic characters like Tails and Eggman provide competition in the form of a second Sonic rep, and Nintendo may see them are more lucrative due to their greater reach. There's also the director's statements on the characters being violent, but that's honestly a toss up at this point (especially given the violent stuff Arle did on Madou Monogatari). Either way, Arle is still a very realistic choice and has a solid shot at the roster, even if she has a few hurdles!
Though one more question I must ask...
...is Arle even the main character anymore? All of the modern Puyo art I see has that blonde with the red puyo hat front and center, while Arle is usually either off to the side or absent entirely.
Want: 15% - I certainly wouldn't be opposed to her. Her cute design and unique gameplay certainly brings a lot to the table! Though, my most wanted SEGA rep is by and far a second Sonic rep (seriously, Sonic deserves it!) so Arle unfortunately isn't high on my want list. But if she did get in I'd certainly respect the choice!
Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5
Predictions:
Lyn - 3.54%
Midna - 2.65%
Skull Kid - 11.43% - The recent Candence DLC reveal will definitely give people a boost of confidence in him.
Completely true, and honestly I don't ever think it'll ever become mainstream for that reason, along with being a generally very inaccessible genre. The former reason (HEAVY HEAVY influence from Japanese mythology, and needing a great understanding to really enjoy it) is also more than likely why Yo-kai Watch bombed in the west.
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BlueEyedGrimmbat
Smash Apprentice
- Joined
- Oct 9, 2019
- Messages
- 116
Abstaining on Arle. Not much to say about Puyo Puyo, although "The time has come for me to clear my reputation...by assaulting this young girl!" is one of my favorite dialogue lines in any video game.
Shrine Maiden of "nobody cares" - Reimu Hakurei
Chance: 50%
I think Reimu is one of the most slept on picks of all time. There are two reasons why - she's indie, and she's obscure in the West. The second argument, I think, isn't even valid - we've had many literal-who-in-the-West characters throughout Smash's history (starting with and all the way back in Melee) and we're still getting obscure picks today, with Terry who isn't known much outside of Latin America and the fighting game community, and Banjo-Kazooie who are obscure in the East.
But just think about what Reimu can bring to the table. She's a pseudo-fighting game rep (Touhou has 6 official fighting-game spinoffs), a true shmup rep (over 20 official bullet hell games, including all of the main series games so far) and an icon of Japanese otaku culture. Touhou has spread its influence all over the Internet, not just in the East, but throughout the entire world as well. I genuinely cannot see how Touhou is still considered obscure at this point.
Now, the other point - she's an indie character. She's one of the biggest ones, sure, but with so many of the bigger indie characters getting Mii Costume'd, Reimu's chances aren't the best. She does have very little competition - the only other indie character who I think has a shot at getting into Smash Ultimate is Quote of Cave Story, but I think Reimu outstrips him in popularity and legacy. Plus, there have been no true indie reps in the Fighters' Passes yet, and I'm positive there's going to be one.
Also people are saying Reimu has almost no interaction with Nintendo whatsoever. True, but does that really matter? Look at.
Want: 100%
There's only one character in the entire pool of Smash Ultimate DLC candidates who can get from me such a long writeup.
Touhou has defined the last two years of my life. It was with Touhou 12.3: Hisoutensoku that I got into fighting games, and even now, on car or bus rides I still pull out my laptop and play a Touhou game. Her moveset potential is immense, being a bullet hell character, she could be an anti-zoner zoner or some thing similar, with tons of projectiles. She could have a lot of unique gimmicks pulled from her games. She could make the Smash community explode. (Some men just want to watch the world burn, like me.)
TL;DR: I'm a huge Touhou fan, and Reimu is my #1 most wanted for Smash.
Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5
Speaking of obscure anime girls...
Shrine Maiden of "nobody cares" - Reimu Hakurei
Chance: 50%
I think Reimu is one of the most slept on picks of all time. There are two reasons why - she's indie, and she's obscure in the West. The second argument, I think, isn't even valid - we've had many literal-who-in-the-West characters throughout Smash's history (starting with
and all the way back in Melee) and we're still getting obscure picks today, with Terry who isn't known much outside of Latin America and the fighting game community, and Banjo-Kazooie who are obscure in the East.But just think about what Reimu can bring to the table. She's a pseudo-fighting game rep (Touhou has 6 official fighting-game spinoffs), a true shmup rep (over 20 official bullet hell games, including all of the main series games so far) and an icon of Japanese otaku culture. Touhou has spread its influence all over the Internet, not just in the East, but throughout the entire world as well. I genuinely cannot see how Touhou is still considered obscure at this point.
Now, the other point - she's an indie character. She's one of the biggest ones, sure, but with so many of the bigger indie characters getting Mii Costume'd, Reimu's chances aren't the best. She does have very little competition - the only other indie character who I think has a shot at getting into Smash Ultimate is Quote of Cave Story, but I think Reimu outstrips him in popularity and legacy. Plus, there have been no true indie reps in the Fighters' Passes yet, and I'm positive there's going to be one.
Also people are saying Reimu has almost no interaction with Nintendo whatsoever. True, but does that really matter? Look at
.Want: 100%
There's only one character in the entire pool of Smash Ultimate DLC candidates who can get from me such a long writeup.
Touhou has defined the last two years of my life. It was with Touhou 12.3: Hisoutensoku that I got into fighting games, and even now, on car or bus rides I still pull out my laptop and play a Touhou game. Her moveset potential is immense, being a bullet hell character, she could be an anti-zoner zoner or some thing similar, with tons of projectiles. She could have a lot of unique gimmicks pulled from her games. She could make the Smash community explode. (Some men just want to watch the world burn, like me.)
TL;DR: I'm a huge Touhou fan, and Reimu is my #1 most wanted for Smash.
Noms: Amiya (Arknights) x5
Speaking of obscure anime girls...
RouffWestie
Smash Lord
Arle
Chance: 99%
The series is very popular in Japan, influential to the puzzle game genre, and Arle is alongside the other highly requested characters we've gotten up to this point. Multiple Puyo games have come to the Switch since the console's launch, with more assuredly coming in the future, leading to her gaining a presence in the West, something I think really helps her odds. I'm certain Nintendo would pick her, SEGA would want her in, and Sakurai would have no issues including her. Personally I'd say she's nearly on-par with Simon in terms of characters that have clear reasons to be in.
Want: 1%
My opinion of her hasn’t really changed too much since speculation started. Mean Bean Machine was a fun childhood memory of mine, but I'm not too invested in the game at this point. Sakurai can make a pretty sick moveset for any character as he's demonstrated so far, but I don't think the gameplay of Puyo has anything that could be brought to Smash that I'd be interested in.
Reimu
Chance: 30%
She’s highly recognizable in Japan and has a long history in Japan. If she were more notable outside Japan, I’d rate her higher. I think she’s got a high chance at appearing in some capacity, like a Mii Costume or Spirit Event.
Want: 0%
I’m not a big Touhou fan to begin with. There’s not much gameplay-wise that I’m that interested in seeing brought to Smash. I would rather have Flandre Scarlet or Cirno if given the choice.
Chance: 99%
The series is very popular in Japan, influential to the puzzle game genre, and Arle is alongside the other highly requested characters we've gotten up to this point. Multiple Puyo games have come to the Switch since the console's launch, with more assuredly coming in the future, leading to her gaining a presence in the West, something I think really helps her odds. I'm certain Nintendo would pick her, SEGA would want her in, and Sakurai would have no issues including her. Personally I'd say she's nearly on-par with Simon in terms of characters that have clear reasons to be in.
Want: 1%
My opinion of her hasn’t really changed too much since speculation started. Mean Bean Machine was a fun childhood memory of mine, but I'm not too invested in the game at this point. Sakurai can make a pretty sick moveset for any character as he's demonstrated so far, but I don't think the gameplay of Puyo has anything that could be brought to Smash that I'd be interested in.
Reimu
Chance: 30%
She’s highly recognizable in Japan and has a long history in Japan. If she were more notable outside Japan, I’d rate her higher. I think she’s got a high chance at appearing in some capacity, like a Mii Costume or Spirit Event.
Want: 0%
I’m not a big Touhou fan to begin with. There’s not much gameplay-wise that I’m that interested in seeing brought to Smash. I would rather have Flandre Scarlet or Cirno if given the choice.
Abstain on Arle.
Shrine Maiden of being a lazy bum:
Chance: 65%
Hoo boi, Reimu is in a rather weird position right about now. You all know the usual arguments, so I'll refrain from rehashing them too much, and instead focus on some more specific information. Assuming that Fighter Pass 2 is indeed the last DLC coming, in order for a character to be DLC at this point, they need to be one of the remaining five characters. While that might seem like a no-brainer, remember that all of the characters in the pass would have likely been decided on at the same time, and like the first Fighters Pass, each character would be aimed at a different target audience, to maximise sales (assuming Nintendo has even the foggiest semblance of a business sense). Remember how the first Fighters Pass had Hero, a character whos popularity was mainly restricted to Japan? Well, who else is in a similar condition? Who else that has virtually no issues with obtaining the rights to use? The timing is also important, and from the information we know, we can deduce that FP2 started development around June of last year. How long before that it was actually planned is slightly harder to grasp, but at the very least it was probably a while after the initial launch of Ultimate. So let's say somewhere between January and June of 2019. And what else happened around this time? That's right, ZUN's comment about Smash. You might say that this means nothing, but the wording of that interview has always bothered me; "Not something I can make happen by simply thinking about it", can be interpreted as "Something I can make happen by doing something about it". I dunno, I'm probably reaching a little far. But the point about each character in the pass being aimed at a different target audience still stands, and Reimu would be an absolutely perfect candidate for drawing in a particular crowd that currently doesn't have much overlap with the existing Smash community. Personally, 65% seems pretty reasonable to me, since that's still a 35% chance that she won't get in. I just think that all the pieces are in the perfect position for things to go her way.
Want: 100%
I don't know what to say that I haven't already said when she was rated previously. She's my most wanted character by a large margin, so of course I'm giving her a high want score.
Shrine Maiden of being a lazy bum:
Chance: 65%
Hoo boi, Reimu is in a rather weird position right about now. You all know the usual arguments, so I'll refrain from rehashing them too much, and instead focus on some more specific information. Assuming that Fighter Pass 2 is indeed the last DLC coming, in order for a character to be DLC at this point, they need to be one of the remaining five characters. While that might seem like a no-brainer, remember that all of the characters in the pass would have likely been decided on at the same time, and like the first Fighters Pass, each character would be aimed at a different target audience, to maximise sales (assuming Nintendo has even the foggiest semblance of a business sense). Remember how the first Fighters Pass had Hero, a character whos popularity was mainly restricted to Japan? Well, who else is in a similar condition? Who else that has virtually no issues with obtaining the rights to use? The timing is also important, and from the information we know, we can deduce that FP2 started development around June of last year. How long before that it was actually planned is slightly harder to grasp, but at the very least it was probably a while after the initial launch of Ultimate. So let's say somewhere between January and June of 2019. And what else happened around this time? That's right, ZUN's comment about Smash. You might say that this means nothing, but the wording of that interview has always bothered me; "Not something I can make happen by simply thinking about it", can be interpreted as "Something I can make happen by doing something about it". I dunno, I'm probably reaching a little far. But the point about each character in the pass being aimed at a different target audience still stands, and Reimu would be an absolutely perfect candidate for drawing in a particular crowd that currently doesn't have much overlap with the existing Smash community. Personally, 65% seems pretty reasonable to me, since that's still a 35% chance that she won't get in. I just think that all the pieces are in the perfect position for things to go her way.
Want: 100%
I don't know what to say that I haven't already said when she was rated previously. She's my most wanted character by a large margin, so of course I'm giving her a high want score.
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YoshiandToad
Smash Hero
Whilst I know a little about both of them, I know far too little to give a fair rating for the first time in a while.
Abstaining today.
Nomination: Mii Costume: Alex Kidd X5.
This one sounds fun.
Abstaining today.
Nomination: Mii Costume: Alex Kidd X5.
This one sounds fun.
Neosonic97
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2018
- Messages
- 304
I'm abstaining on Arle. The other, however? Hooo, boy....
"Literally who?" no longer
Chance: 50%
I think Reimu has better chances this time around. First of all, there's the interview with ZUN saying HE WANTS Touhou in Smash. Nintendo has actually interacted with the IP before- specifically through a crossover also developed by Bandai Namco, that being Taiko no Tatsujin (Where Touhou crossed over with, amongst other things, Phoenix Wright, Yo-kai Watch and Kirby). On top of this, In 2013, Nintendo (and Sega) was actually present at Reitaisai (To the uneducated, it's a Japanese con dedicated exclusively to Touhou Project), and they had previously been given a license by ZUN to allow players of the Daigasso! Band Brothers series to upload remixes of the works of Team Shanghai Alice- Nintendo followed up by doing a special contest for TSA remixes- with ZUN as a special judge. Needless to say, from this, it's clear that it wouldn't even be Nintendo's first time working with ZUN. While Touhou hasn't appeared on Nintendo Consoles yet, Nintendo themselves have collaborated with ZUN in the past (Plus, by the time Joker was announced, Persona Q2 had only just been released in Japan [and only Japan], and let's not forget about CLOUD FREAKING STRIFE) Reimu gets into Smash, this could be the push needed to get official Touhou ports on the Switch and given the cordial relationship that ZUN and Nintendo have, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Reimu's a bit of a slept on choice, but there's definitely potential, as evidenced by the fact that people are actually taking her seriously for once, as opposed to being called a meme pick like a certain lazy skeleton once was, and yet we all know how that turned out.
That's not even getting into other traits that make Reimu a desirable pick. She represents a corner of gaming that hasn't really been touched by Smash's influence yet. She's also got a great deal of potential for an interesting, unique and most importantly, fun, playstyle- and that's assuming she's just literally ported from her fighting game appearances. And of course the freaking godly music from Touhou.
Want: 100%
She's STILL my most wanted. While my chance rating has changed, how much I want Gensokyo's top Shrine Maiden is unchanged. The only reason I've typed it differently is because I've ran out of witty ways to say 100%.
tl;dr SHE'S STILL MY MOST WANTED.
Noms: Terrarian x5
"Literally who?" no longer
Chance: 50%
I think Reimu has better chances this time around. First of all, there's the interview with ZUN saying HE WANTS Touhou in Smash. Nintendo has actually interacted with the IP before- specifically through a crossover also developed by Bandai Namco, that being Taiko no Tatsujin (Where Touhou crossed over with, amongst other things, Phoenix Wright, Yo-kai Watch and Kirby). On top of this, In 2013, Nintendo (and Sega) was actually present at Reitaisai (To the uneducated, it's a Japanese con dedicated exclusively to Touhou Project), and they had previously been given a license by ZUN to allow players of the Daigasso! Band Brothers series to upload remixes of the works of Team Shanghai Alice- Nintendo followed up by doing a special contest for TSA remixes- with ZUN as a special judge. Needless to say, from this, it's clear that it wouldn't even be Nintendo's first time working with ZUN. While Touhou hasn't appeared on Nintendo Consoles yet, Nintendo themselves have collaborated with ZUN in the past (Plus, by the time Joker was announced, Persona Q2 had only just been released in Japan [and only Japan], and let's not forget about CLOUD FREAKING STRIFE) Reimu gets into Smash, this could be the push needed to get official Touhou ports on the Switch and given the cordial relationship that ZUN and Nintendo have, it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility. Reimu's a bit of a slept on choice, but there's definitely potential, as evidenced by the fact that people are actually taking her seriously for once, as opposed to being called a meme pick like a certain lazy skeleton once was, and yet we all know how that turned out.
That's not even getting into other traits that make Reimu a desirable pick. She represents a corner of gaming that hasn't really been touched by Smash's influence yet. She's also got a great deal of potential for an interesting, unique and most importantly, fun, playstyle- and that's assuming she's just literally ported from her fighting game appearances. And of course the freaking godly music from Touhou.
Want: 100%
She's STILL my most wanted. While my chance rating has changed, how much I want Gensokyo's top Shrine Maiden is unchanged. The only reason I've typed it differently is because I've ran out of witty ways to say 100%.
tl;dr SHE'S STILL MY MOST WANTED.
Noms: Terrarian x5
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BowserKing
Smash Lord
Arle
Chance: 20%. While we have three Sega reps, Arle’s Chance is not as low as we thought. And unless there I see a spirit event, Arle’s chance of getting in is still pretty high, compared to most other Sega reps.
Want: 50%. I think she would be a fun character to play as, and I Can see her have a brawl with Dr.Mario in the Warioware stage. Overall, I think Arle would be a decent choice for a Smash Rep.
Reimu
Chance: 5%. Her chance has not gotten as high of a rating as we expected, but so far, her popularity is what’s keeping her in the fight. While it I still Moreno likely that she would be a spirit or Mii Costume, her chance is still out there, but not by much.
Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, and if she gets in, we would get some very catchy soundtracks. Overall, Reimu’s inclusion would be a decent and who knows who may show up.
Predictions: Skull Kid (20%), Midna (20%) and Lyn (10%)
Noms: 5 for Gooigi
Also updated because of an error I may have made.
Chance: 20%. While we have three Sega reps, Arle’s Chance is not as low as we thought. And unless there I see a spirit event, Arle’s chance of getting in is still pretty high, compared to most other Sega reps.
Want: 50%. I think she would be a fun character to play as, and I Can see her have a brawl with Dr.Mario in the Warioware stage. Overall, I think Arle would be a decent choice for a Smash Rep.
Reimu
Chance: 5%. Her chance has not gotten as high of a rating as we expected, but so far, her popularity is what’s keeping her in the fight. While it I still Moreno likely that she would be a spirit or Mii Costume, her chance is still out there, but not by much.
Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, and if she gets in, we would get some very catchy soundtracks. Overall, Reimu’s inclusion would be a decent and who knows who may show up.
Predictions: Skull Kid (20%), Midna (20%) and Lyn (10%)
Noms: 5 for Gooigi
Also updated because of an error I may have made.
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chocolatejr9
Smash Hero
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2018
- Messages
- 8,413
Abstain. I don't have an opinion on these two.
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
jamesster445
Smash Lord
- Joined
- May 7, 2015
- Messages
- 1,177
The "Queen of Indies"
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%
I'm pretty neutral on Reimu as a whole however I dont think shes as likely as her fans hope she is. Theres a reason I put quotations above. Shes often heralded as the Indie Queen but I have to ask, Is she? Let's put a little perspective, Sans and Cuphead (Sans especially) have become part of the GLOBAL zeitgeist and became cultural icons within the course of around 5 years. Reimu/Touhou over the course of the past decade barely left Japan and has become a niche within weeb culture (hell it's in my weeb days that I even discovered anything about Touhou, and even then Reimu was not even the focus). That said apparently Touhou music is good. So Mii costume it is.
Puyo Popper
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%
I'd be fine with Arle. Arle seems like a fun enough idea and while shes not Tetris, Puyo Puyo is a big puzzle franchise. And theres a lot of potential to be had with a puzzle character. I believe that there are some rights issues that could prevent Arle from happening. But I think she'd be neat.
Nominations: Lora and Jin x5
Chance: 20%
Want: 50%
I'm pretty neutral on Reimu as a whole however I dont think shes as likely as her fans hope she is. Theres a reason I put quotations above. Shes often heralded as the Indie Queen but I have to ask, Is she? Let's put a little perspective, Sans and Cuphead (Sans especially) have become part of the GLOBAL zeitgeist and became cultural icons within the course of around 5 years. Reimu/Touhou over the course of the past decade barely left Japan and has become a niche within weeb culture (hell it's in my weeb days that I even discovered anything about Touhou, and even then Reimu was not even the focus). That said apparently Touhou music is good. So Mii costume it is.
Puyo Popper
Chance: 40%
Want: 70%
I'd be fine with Arle. Arle seems like a fun enough idea and while shes not Tetris, Puyo Puyo is a big puzzle franchise. And theres a lot of potential to be had with a puzzle character. I believe that there are some rights issues that could prevent Arle from happening. But I think she'd be neat.
Nominations: Lora and Jin x5
Today is the day, it seems. It will be a big one for me, so I'll start with the smaller one.
Arle Nadja
Chance: 15%
Arle has a lot going for her. Puyo Puyo is a popular series in Japan, and she is a popular Smash request there. Puyo Puyo has also been on most Nintendo system, with the only one it missed being the Virtual Boy, which is very understandable. Arle also has a good moveset potential, since she could pull from both the Puyo Puyo series but also from Madou Mongatari, which is the series from where she actualy comes from. However, I see Arle having 1 big thing that goes against her, and it's that she's a Sega character, and I'm very iffy about us getting another Sega character for this pass. There's also the fact that the director of Puyo Puyo said he did not want his characters in fighting games/violent games, but Smash is very not violent, so I don't think that it would hold her back.
Want: 75%
Arle is not only cute, but she's also very fun. She cuold have a very good moveset that use her abilities as a mage and the Puyos for something really unique. She's also my most wanted Sega character if you take Atlus as separated from them. She would be very nice to have in Smash.
Reimu Hakurei, the eternal shrine maiden
Want: 100%
Reimu is my absolut most wanted, so I'll do the want first. So, Reimu and Touhou. How can I begin with anything else that Touhou is my favorite series of all time? Touhou means a lot to me, I became really invested into it at a time where life was not too good for me, and it did so mch good for me. It made me become someone more invested with himself, and it allowed me to go trough some tough times when other series where just not enough for me anymore. Whether it's because of the incredibly fun and challenging games the series has, of the characters that are notonly very fun but with who I manage to relate with some way or another, because of the amazing music that I love every bit of, or the insane ammount of fanwork the series has, I just love it so much. In top of that, Touhou has multiples oficial fighting games, so Reimu has more than enough moveset potential for her to work in Smash and be very fun. And most important of all, the music. Touhou has a phenomenal soundtrack, and ZUN's cd music complement them n such a great way. Hearing Touhou music in Smash would be so great, especialy tracks like Necrofantasia. Truthfully, Reimu in Smash would pretty much be a dream come true to me.
Chance: 20%
So, I'll start with what Reimu has against her. Touhou is obscure in the west, and it's indeed an Indie title. It also has no mainline games on Nintendo system, but there's multiples fangames on the e-shop, and AoCF will suposedly get a port. Now that this is out of the way, let's get to the positive, and the first one is this
This screenshot comes from Taiko No Tatsujin: Dokodon! Mystery Adventure, a rythm game for the 3DS. Reimu and Kirby literaly danced together once, meaning that Touhou has already crossed over with one of nintendo's ip. Furthermore, talking about crossovers, Touhou crossed over with Hello Kitty, the second biggest ip in the world behind only Pokemon, because highter up at Sanrio though that it would open Hello Kitty to a bigger audience, which more than anything, speak about how big Touhou is in Japan. Continuing with Touhou being very big in Japan, not only is Touhou still very popular at Comiket, but it also has it's own biannual convention, Reitaisai, and one of the most notable is Reitaisai 13, where Nintendo got a licence from ZUN to distribute remixes. Yes, Nintendo reached out to ZUN before. And ZUN said in an interview in March 2019 that he would like for Reimu to appear in Smash. And considering how ZUN is notonly very lax with the copyright but would also more than likely just ask for a beer as payment, Nintendo literaly only needs to ask him to get the rights for Reimu in Smash. Talking about rights, a trademark for Touhou, Touhou Doujin Music, and the Hakurei Shrine was filled earlier this year. I'm not saying "trademarks = Smash", but this is notable because not only did Touhou has no trademark before that, but the Hakurei Shrine was trademarked, which is extremly unusual for a specific location in a game to get trademarked. And the thing is that stages in Smash gets trademarked, and the Hakurei Shrine wuold more than certainly be Reimu's stage if she got in. Of course, this could be for another crossover that needs for Touhou to get trademarks, but there's another trademark that is notable. The Touhou Doujin Music trademark, and it's because of the composer MASAKI, who not only did Touhou remixes
...But he also does music for Smash
One last thing is that one of ZUN's friend who helps him for legal stuff said that if ports of Touhou games on their systems would happen, then they would collaborate and help the Touhou brand in various ways. So yeah, there's also that.
Reimu has a lot going for her. But I don't think of her as that likely, maybe it's just me trying to not getting my hopes too high, but there's also the chance of Nintendo just not wanting her in Smash. I honestly tink that Touhou will have some form of content in Smash one way or another, may it be Remiu as a full fledge fighter with a pack, as added spirits, a costume for mii fighters, or even dlc music tracks.
Adding my predictions and nominations as an edit
Predictions:
Midna: 4.2%
Skull Kid: 7.8%
Lyn: 1.9%
Nominations: SMT rep x5
Arle Nadja
Chance: 15%
Arle has a lot going for her. Puyo Puyo is a popular series in Japan, and she is a popular Smash request there. Puyo Puyo has also been on most Nintendo system, with the only one it missed being the Virtual Boy, which is very understandable. Arle also has a good moveset potential, since she could pull from both the Puyo Puyo series but also from Madou Mongatari, which is the series from where she actualy comes from. However, I see Arle having 1 big thing that goes against her, and it's that she's a Sega character, and I'm very iffy about us getting another Sega character for this pass. There's also the fact that the director of Puyo Puyo said he did not want his characters in fighting games/violent games, but Smash is very not violent, so I don't think that it would hold her back.
Want: 75%
Arle is not only cute, but she's also very fun. She cuold have a very good moveset that use her abilities as a mage and the Puyos for something really unique. She's also my most wanted Sega character if you take Atlus as separated from them. She would be very nice to have in Smash.
Reimu Hakurei, the eternal shrine maiden
Want: 100%
Reimu is my absolut most wanted, so I'll do the want first. So, Reimu and Touhou. How can I begin with anything else that Touhou is my favorite series of all time? Touhou means a lot to me, I became really invested into it at a time where life was not too good for me, and it did so mch good for me. It made me become someone more invested with himself, and it allowed me to go trough some tough times when other series where just not enough for me anymore. Whether it's because of the incredibly fun and challenging games the series has, of the characters that are notonly very fun but with who I manage to relate with some way or another, because of the amazing music that I love every bit of, or the insane ammount of fanwork the series has, I just love it so much. In top of that, Touhou has multiples oficial fighting games, so Reimu has more than enough moveset potential for her to work in Smash and be very fun. And most important of all, the music. Touhou has a phenomenal soundtrack, and ZUN's cd music complement them n such a great way. Hearing Touhou music in Smash would be so great, especialy tracks like Necrofantasia. Truthfully, Reimu in Smash would pretty much be a dream come true to me.
Chance: 20%
So, I'll start with what Reimu has against her. Touhou is obscure in the west, and it's indeed an Indie title. It also has no mainline games on Nintendo system, but there's multiples fangames on the e-shop, and AoCF will suposedly get a port. Now that this is out of the way, let's get to the positive, and the first one is this
This screenshot comes from Taiko No Tatsujin: Dokodon! Mystery Adventure, a rythm game for the 3DS. Reimu and Kirby literaly danced together once, meaning that Touhou has already crossed over with one of nintendo's ip. Furthermore, talking about crossovers, Touhou crossed over with Hello Kitty, the second biggest ip in the world behind only Pokemon, because highter up at Sanrio though that it would open Hello Kitty to a bigger audience, which more than anything, speak about how big Touhou is in Japan. Continuing with Touhou being very big in Japan, not only is Touhou still very popular at Comiket, but it also has it's own biannual convention, Reitaisai, and one of the most notable is Reitaisai 13, where Nintendo got a licence from ZUN to distribute remixes. Yes, Nintendo reached out to ZUN before. And ZUN said in an interview in March 2019 that he would like for Reimu to appear in Smash. And considering how ZUN is notonly very lax with the copyright but would also more than likely just ask for a beer as payment, Nintendo literaly only needs to ask him to get the rights for Reimu in Smash. Talking about rights, a trademark for Touhou, Touhou Doujin Music, and the Hakurei Shrine was filled earlier this year. I'm not saying "trademarks = Smash", but this is notable because not only did Touhou has no trademark before that, but the Hakurei Shrine was trademarked, which is extremly unusual for a specific location in a game to get trademarked. And the thing is that stages in Smash gets trademarked, and the Hakurei Shrine wuold more than certainly be Reimu's stage if she got in. Of course, this could be for another crossover that needs for Touhou to get trademarks, but there's another trademark that is notable. The Touhou Doujin Music trademark, and it's because of the composer MASAKI, who not only did Touhou remixes
Reimu has a lot going for her. But I don't think of her as that likely, maybe it's just me trying to not getting my hopes too high, but there's also the chance of Nintendo just not wanting her in Smash. I honestly tink that Touhou will have some form of content in Smash one way or another, may it be Remiu as a full fledge fighter with a pack, as added spirits, a costume for mii fighters, or even dlc music tracks.
Adding my predictions and nominations as an edit
Predictions:
Midna: 4.2%
Skull Kid: 7.8%
Lyn: 1.9%
Nominations: SMT rep x5
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waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
Quote rating again today cause I currently dn'thave a keyboard for some big write up. Lowered Arle's chance a bit since Min Min being the first FP2 character kinda gave me a new vision of the pass, one which doesn't benefit Arle. Also I actually did end up beating Mean Bean Machine, tho it definitely was no breeze. Might've just gotten lucky for the most part.
Midna: 3.35%
Lyn: 2.43%
Deltarune content x5
Skull Kid: 10.75%
Midna: 3.35%
Lyn: 2.43%
Deltarune content x5
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Oh that's Amitie.
For a while Arle was getting displaced as the primary protagonist of the series, but in more recent times it's not the case. The series is much more of an ensemble cast these days still, but Amitie is hardly in consideration by... well, anybody. But none of the girls are that much more prominent than the rest, but they are all prominent. The cast is also usually grouped by debut, which would likely explain Arle's absence.
Still, while I think the case is open and shut, it is technically true that Arle isn't the main protagonist of the series at this point in time. She is a main protagonist.
Lastly, Arle's the character who is infamous for getting by far the most love in Puyo Quest, which is SEGA's darling (has been for around 7 years). Having almost 30 alternates dedicated to her. So I think Arle's still considered a bit above the rest these days.
Anyway, Indie Isaac
Chance: 20%. Reimu is probably the frontrunner for indie characters, contesting with Quote and maybe Shantae for that position. But if I previously thought indie characters were gonna happen, well opening with Min plus the double punch of Sans and Cuphead costumes means that I can't really see us getting one. Reimu stands out as the one I think is gonna happen, if we do get one, for various reasons previously mentioned, but if they want somebody more western oriented she loses to Shantae and if they want somebody who isn't as popular as either of them, but has global popularity, then I could see Quote getting in instead.
I also think that Reimu is among those who will likely get a Mii Costume in the future, but then again it's all of them and Shovel Knight at this point. Can't say I'm confident in any indie character.
Want: 45%. I guess? But this isn't a me pick, this is an everybody else pick. Touhou is also one of the most internet-ingrained series out here so I can imagine that there'd be a bunch of hype for it.
(Can anybody guess why I called her indie Isaac?)
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warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Reimu
Chance: 3%
I really don't think it matters if Reimu is big in Japan, that looks to be the only thing going for her. I can't speak for Europe, but at least in America she is a complete nobody. I can't see her being anything better than a super mii costume. Her series is not on the same level Dragon Quest where it was legendary in Japan but not too popular elsewhere, I don't think there's room for her.
Also I don't care who it is, Indies reps are dead.
Want: 0%
looked into her more, still have absolutely no interest in seeing her in the game. Hard Pass.
Arle
Chance: 25%
Nothing's really changed for Arle. She's Sega so she doesn't fall into the trap of super mii costume. I don't see anyone else taking her spot from Sega, unless Eggman or Tails take it. She seems to be more popular outside of Japan than Reimu, atleast according to some fan polls.
Want: 10%
I still don't really care about this character or series. Nothing has changed here in terms of want.
Noms: Rocket League Rep x5
Chance: 3%
I really don't think it matters if Reimu is big in Japan, that looks to be the only thing going for her. I can't speak for Europe, but at least in America she is a complete nobody. I can't see her being anything better than a super mii costume. Her series is not on the same level Dragon Quest where it was legendary in Japan but not too popular elsewhere, I don't think there's room for her.
Also I don't care who it is, Indies reps are dead.
Want: 0%
looked into her more, still have absolutely no interest in seeing her in the game. Hard Pass.
Arle
Chance: 25%
Nothing's really changed for Arle. She's Sega so she doesn't fall into the trap of super mii costume. I don't see anyone else taking her spot from Sega, unless Eggman or Tails take it. She seems to be more popular outside of Japan than Reimu, atleast according to some fan polls.
Want: 10%
I still don't really care about this character or series. Nothing has changed here in terms of want.
Noms: Rocket League Rep x5
Cheezey Bites
Slime Knight
I don't want to adjust the ratings given I don't regularly post on here, but if there's any indie rep it's almost certainly one of these two (although Arle is an ascended indie thanks to the Compile's bad finances) given both of their massive worldwide appeal (and not just America like Shantae, who'd be cool as second indie tho)... probably with Arle getting the majority, but pretty even... That said tcompetition is so high for this; 5 characters and the whole game space to pick from I don't think ANY character should cross 25% right now... though these two combined might just? But saying either one is 50% or more is just folly at this point.
That said both are 100% wants.
I have been a fan of Puyo Puyo since getting Minna de on GBA, and I've delved back into the rocky but interesting Madou Monogatari Franchise. Now ask me how old I want Arle to be in the game and I'll have a harder time answering (the 16 year old Madou Monogatari 2 design is more common, but the 18 year old Final Exam design was used for the decades long tournament standard Puyo Puyo~n and is seemingly the preferred design by SEGA outside the anniversay game), but Arle is a great character, representing puzzle and dungeon crawler genres, and is a mage who shouldn't (looking at you Sega Saturn game) even have physical attacks... I mean Bayoen as a grab is already cool enough, and what they could do with Diacuteness she'd be a great character before you even get to Puyo Puyo...
But Reimu is on a whole nother level. Floating, bullets, grazing, bullets, yin yang orbs and bullets... okay, maybe it's mostly bullets, but damn she's be fresh as a character, and also I love Sh'mups and Touhou are very good Sh'mups. She'd just be brilliant, a cool design, and all the music she could bring would just be *chef's kiss*.
That said both are 100% wants.
I have been a fan of Puyo Puyo since getting Minna de on GBA, and I've delved back into the rocky but interesting Madou Monogatari Franchise. Now ask me how old I want Arle to be in the game and I'll have a harder time answering (the 16 year old Madou Monogatari 2 design is more common, but the 18 year old Final Exam design was used for the decades long tournament standard Puyo Puyo~n and is seemingly the preferred design by SEGA outside the anniversay game), but Arle is a great character, representing puzzle and dungeon crawler genres, and is a mage who shouldn't (looking at you Sega Saturn game) even have physical attacks... I mean Bayoen as a grab is already cool enough, and what they could do with Diacuteness she'd be a great character before you even get to Puyo Puyo...
But Reimu is on a whole nother level. Floating, bullets, grazing, bullets, yin yang orbs and bullets... okay, maybe it's mostly bullets, but damn she's be fresh as a character, and also I love Sh'mups and Touhou are very good Sh'mups. She'd just be brilliant, a cool design, and all the music she could bring would just be *chef's kiss*.
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GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Uh, no.
Could you edit those into your original post? Makes it easier for me.
Done.
Neosonic97
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Dec 18, 2018
- Messages
- 304
That... is mostly because of ZUN's lack of trying. It's only recently he's been trying to expand to western audiences- and I'm talking like... the last two, three years recent? That certainly seems to be the case, considering HSiFS, the first official Touhou game actively available to global audiences (Via Steam), was released to said global audiences in November 2017.
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Glaciacott
Smash Lord
Kind of want to talk about this... what is the kosher approach here? How do we properly gauge reasonable chance values?
Like, I traditionally believe ratings in here are far too high, but seeing so many over 60% and even a 99% for either of these characters is ludicrous to me.
The only reason anyone should say chance 99% is because Sakurai just tweeted about that character making it in, and the 1% is to account for the unrealistic possibility that he was actually drunk and posted that tweet on a dare.
SharkLord
Smash Hero
Admittedly, I'm going partially on my personal opinion more than logic. Reimu's probably closer to the 40-60% range if we're basing it off of hard evidence, but I honestly really think she's got a good shot. Also, I'm pretty generous with my scores anyways, so yeah...
But in the end, none of this really matters because this fandom is borderline-habitually wrong anyways. Case in point:
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
For me it goes close to this(NOTE, this isnt how everyone does it,it's just how I process things)
0: Impossible, deconfirmed, or just so little going for them that I can't see it happening.
1-14: Very unlikely but could have a path to getting chosen, although it's not likely
15-29: More going for them than the other two categories but still not likely for other reasons
30-39: A character I could legitimately see but has a big strike or two against keeping me from feeling confident
40-49: A character who I think is a legit contender but I'm not confident on for one reason or another
50-59: A character with a good case but has some small issues keeping me from feeling great on them. 50/50 on their chances mostly
60-69(nice): A character I'm feeling confident in but has 1 or 2 things that hold me back
70-79: Very strong case, mostly the only negative is competition from others in the genre or developer
80-89: A character who I think it most likely in and it would be a small surprise if they weren't.
90-99: Based on how things are trending I'd be shocked if they weren't included. As close as possible to a lock without being one
100: Ken in the base roster
Most of my ratings are in the 0-40 range and I think I've only gone above 75 two or three times. It's mostly just about how confident you feel on what's being rated. I don't think there's really a wrong way to do it unless the numbers are either completely nonsensical or don't match with your reasoning at all
For my dark horse range I'd say the 30-49 range is just about that with it dipping into the 15-29 range for something like western reps where the biggest knock against them is one of the biggest knocks possible on them.