Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Today we are rating two characters from competing console manufacturers. On one hand, we have Kratos from God of War. On the other, Master Chief from Halo. How will they fare here? Let's find out. Rate them in chance and want.

Tomorrow we have an assist trophy redux day. Isaac and Ashley both are/were popular choices, but will they do better now? Predict their scores.

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Master Chief

Spoiler: Halo Music

Kratos

Spoiler: God of War Music

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Kratos

Chance: 0%

Sony's not as friendly to Nintendo as Microsoft. The character nor the franchise has never even come close to touching a Nintendo system nor will it probably ever. Sorry, I don't see this ever happening short of one of the two companies dropping out from consoles entirely like Sega, which in itself is extremely unlikely.

Want: 10%

I don't have much interest in seeing this series represented in Smash tbh. There's just too many other characters I'd rather see.

Master Chief

Chance: 5%

Microsoft is more friendly to Nintendo these days, with Banjo getting in and the Cuphead Mii costume and spirits and all. I still think Banjo was a special case specifically because of his massive connection to Nintendo in the old days, and just because he got in doesn't mean we're suddenly going to see a huge influx of characters from other companies. I still think that a character at least making a single appearance within their own series on a Nintendo consoles (cameo or otherwise) is one of the few solid rules that actually has some merit (outside of the no non video game characters rule). To this day, it hasn't been broken. I do think he's on a tier above Kratos, considering the relationship between the parent companies is friendlier (but it's not perfect of course, it's not like their allowing Banjo's games to be released on Switch or anything), and his cameo on another series's game on Switch, but until he gets an actual Halo game on a Nintendo system, spin off or not, he's still below Joker and Cloud in terms of Nintendo appearances.

Want: 20%

Don't have much interest in seeing him either tbh, for the reasons above and all. There's still too many other characters I'd rather see, even among 3rd Parties.

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on both. Neither character has had proper history with Nintendo, and all I wanna say is that I don't want them because of that (and yes, I'm aware that they're gaming legends).

Isaac: 40%
Ashley: 35%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain lol
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5

 

[SharkLord]

Kratos:
Chance: 10%. Sony isn't as friendly as Microsoft, plain and simple. We could get the biggest gaming turnaround of the decade, but I don't see it happening.
Want: 40%. I don't really care either way. I guess he'd be fun, but I have no strong feelings towards him.
Master Chief:
Chance: 60%. It's hard to deny Halo's impact. It refined the genre that Doom kickstarted, and it's the face of the Xbox. He's not even exclusive anymore, either; Halo's on Steam, after all. That being said, Microdoft may not be willing to give up their biggest star, especially when they could use Steve? instead. With that in mind, I'd say he's possible, but not overly likely.
Want: 60%. I don't know too much about Halo, but he seems cool. He kills aliens and doesn't afraid of anything. But all jokes aside, I'm sure he could do something interesting with FPS mechanics. Plus, I have a friend who will literally buy a Switch for the sole sake of Smash if Master Chief is added, so that's a plus.

Predictions:
Ashley: 23.32%
Isaac: 37.89%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Sari]

Kratos

Chance: 0%
Sony and Nintendo don't have the best relationship ever as they basically never collaborate with each other. Kratos isn't really a particularly highly requested for Smash on the level of other rival company-owned characters like Banjo was. I don't see Sakurai going through all the trouble to get Kratos into Smash like he did with Banjo. Even if we did get a Sony character, Kratos would have some competition in the form of other characters like Nathan Drake.

Want: Abstain
Never played GoW so I won't comment. I definitely would not want Kratos to get in over Nathan Drake though when it comes to Sony characters.

-----

Master Chief

Chance: 5%
Microsoft's relationship with Nintendo is a bit better than Sony's as seen with Banjo and some general collaborations between the two in recent years. If we ever get another Microsoft character then it will definitely be Chief. However it still stands that both both the FPS genre and the Xbox brand are not popular in Japan so I don't particularly see Sakurai bargaining with a rival company again just for Chief. There's also Steve who still has his fans.

Want: 70%
Chief is a gaming icon who more than deserves a spot. It'd be amazing to see him fight Mario and his reveal would probably break the internet.

-----

Isaac chance prediction: 40.00% (expecting a ton of overrates)
Ashley chance prediction: 15.00%

Nominations:
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x5

 

[SpectreJordan]

Kratos

Chance: 0%

Sony doesn’t like playing well with others. They had to be yelled at by the entire gaming community to allow cross-platform multiplayer. From what I’ve heard, there’s still some bad blood between older Sony & Nintendo employees from the PS1/N64 days too.

I think the content of the original God of War games would hurt Kratos’s chances even if it weren’t for Sony. The sex mini-games in the first couple games are something I don’t think Nintendo would want associated with Smash. They could make get away with this by using 2018 Kratos, but IDK.

Want: 80%
I love God of War, it’s a great series. Kratos is essentially the PlayStation’s mascot & he’s become a legendary video game character; it’d be a ton of fun to see him alongside the likes of Mario, Link & Cloud. Kratos has a ton of moveset potential too; he has so much potential that’d he’d probably be broken tbh. But if Sony did want to play nice, I’d prefer that we get Ratchet & Clank first.

Master Chief

Chance: 55%

The main reason I don’t think Master Chief is higher is because Halo hasn’t been on a Nintendo console. This is seemingly one of the few rules for a character to get into Smash. BUT rules keep getting broken, especially in Ultimate. I barely think Cloud & Joker count for that rule tbh; they didn’t bring any content with them from their small Nintendo appearances prior to Smash.

I feel after the massive hype following Banjo’s reveal, that Microsoft could’ve offered Nintendo to allow Master Chief in Smash. I find it hard to believe that Nintendo or Sakurai would say no to that. Master Chief would be Ultimate’s equivalent to Cloud. The internet would explode if he got in, it would be easy marketing for the Fighter Pass, Smash Ultimate & the Switch.

But if Microsoft didn’t offer first, I could see Nintendo & Sakurai not even considering the option.

I did compile a speculative post of potential evidence from insiders regarding Master Chief. It’s all speculation & obviously not proof, but it could be an interesting read for you guys.

https://smashboards.com/threads/i-need-a-weapon-master-chief.452763/post-24002318

Want: 100%

Master Chief is my most wanted character. Halo is my favorite game series & Halo 3 is my favorite game ever. The Halo series means a lot to me & I would be so happy if it got to join Smash.

Aside from that I feel the passion Halo fans have for that series is very similar to the passion that Nintendo fans have for their favorite series. I think it’s something that should be celebrated.

I also feel that Master Chief is the biggest video game character not in Smash yet. His only competition being Crash, Steve & Lara Croft who would all be cool too.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Crazy Chief
Chance: 2%
Personally, Master Chief feels like a character requested by people who desperately want Cloud to be topped in sheer collective internet hype and without really thinking critically about his chances. There's not much wrong with that and I'm not saying we can't get another character like that again but I dunno. When Min Min from Arms leads of this new pass I don't feel like it's an indication of the pass containing earth-shattering icons who shift the hype train into maximum overdrive like Chief. I'm of the mind that FPvol2 has decreased budget and that makes characters I consider out of that budget range, like Chief very unlikely to me. This is the mascot of Xbox we're talking about. Microsoft and Nintendo may be on good terms but I doubt negotiations for him would go as fluently as Banjo and Terry did. They're not giving him away for free.

We also need to remember that the Xbox brand/Halo franchise isn't popular in Japan and the fact that he also has to compete with Steve. Minecraft is actually a bigger name than Halo and is actually on the Switch so I see little reason Master Chief would be picked over him if a second Microsoft character is happening.

Want: 0%
Never owned an Xbox console and completely missed out on the Halo craze of the 2000's. The hype just wouldn't be there for me. Doomguy/slayer is my preferred fps rep and Chief just forms competition to my preferred third-parties in general.

Crater
Double zeroes
The budget theory I just talked about applies to Kratos as well, possibly even more so since Sony hasn't exactly shown to be buddy buddy with Nintendo unlike Microsoft. I don't see the barrier between the two breaking anytime soon. To be honest, the fact that the deadline for the pass was last November and that Sony still hasn't shown any signs of shaking hands with Nintendo leads me to believe Kratos might as well be deconfirmed already, sorry folks. While I do have a ps3, I haven't played any GoW games so no hype for me there either. Forms competition to preferred third-parties also and finally, I am just not ready for the first-party Playstation IP floodgates to be opened yet. Can we just have some remaining Nintendo all-stars before that?

Isaac: 24.44%
Ashley: 5.80%
Deltarune content x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Master Chief Finishes the Fight!

Chance: 15%

Nintendo and Microsoft are still buddy-buddy so I can see this happening. The big obstacle in Chief's way is that Halo and Xbox in general are not popular in Japan. The Xbox One has been doing very poorly over there ever since its release, leading to a small user base compared to the Switch and PS4. Chief is also competing with Steve whose game is very popular in Japan and I see him being much more likely. So why am I giving him a 15%? Well Halo is still one of the more successful Xbox series in Japan and Halo is a juggernaut in the West.

But would Nintendo choose Master Chief? Well for a long time there were rumors of Xbox Game Pass coming to Switch but those seem to have died down. Honestly I think this might come down to Sakurai. We know that Nintendo chose the characters but judging from the first pass Sakurai seems to have some say in the selection. So you know what? I'm going to take a leap of faith and this is the main reason why I give him a 15% chance. Halo is a very iconic and influential series, it's important to the gaming industry. I could see Sakurai choosing Master Chief if he wants to really go all out and solidify Ultimate as the biggest crossover of all time. You want to know who I think could be the Joker/Cloud of this pass? I think Master Chief is going to be that character. He is big enough that I could see even Nintendo agreeing to him because he would sell like hot cakes and I don't see why Microsoft wouldn't allow Chief in Smash. This is a hill that I'm sticking to and will fight for until the end.

Want: 100%

Seeing Halo in Smash would be mind blowing. Mario vs Master Chief would be a legendary fight. I really like Halo and if Doom can't get in, then I would like Halo to be the rep for the FPS genre with how important it is to the genre. There is a lot of cool stages they can choose from and the music is heavenly. Master Chief is one of those characters that I can confidently say deserves to be in Smash.


____________________

I will have my revenge.....in Smash!

Chance: 0.10%

At this point I'm even less confident in Kratos joining Smash. With Sony joining that one Smash tournament I was hoping they would be more open and maybe even collaborate with Nintendo on something but nope. They still seem to be stubborn and the success of the PS4 this generation has given them a huge ego boost. With only 5 slots left and the likelihood of more first party characters being high, I can't see this being the timeline where Nintendo approaches Sony for a character. There are a lot of companies that are very close to Nintendo at this point so yeah any Sony rep is extremely unlikely.

The only reason why I'm giving Kratos this tiny chance is because he would likely be the chosen Sony rep and the idea of a PlayStation rep is so crazy that I could see it maybe happening.

Want: 100%

I LOVE God of War. It's one of my favorite game series. Kratos has so much moveset potential it's crazy. There is probably 10 different movesets you could come up with that would be super fun and represents the character and series very well. I'm curious to see what it would look like. Would they go with the Blades of Chaos or go with a moveset based more on the PS4 game? Or a combination of both? Either way, any way, I would be happy. There is also some really cool stages they could choose. They could use the set piece from the first game where you are fighting the Hydra on a ship during a storm, the opening of GOW 3 where you are on top of Gaia and they could have the various gods be hazards, or one of the many set pieces from the PS4 game. Finally, the music is great. Rage of Sparta, Duel with Hades, all of the main themes, etc. Great stuff. I would love Kratos to be in Smash.


Predictions:
Isaac - 45% (Get ready for the brigade like last time)
Ashley - 6%

Noms: Ezio x5 (I'm saving extra noms for later)

 

[warpenguin55]

Master Chief
Chance: 5%
I don't think we're getting another Microsoft rep. Another issue I see with Master Chief is that he would probably require an insane amount to get, and the budget for FP2 probably isn't enough.

Want: 95%
Actual gaming legend right here. Master Chief is hands down the star of Xbox. "But Steve-" no. Let me know when Steve carries puts an entire friggen console on his back for most of it's lifespan.

Is it bad that I don't know any other Xbox franchises? I googled trying to find out more and all I found were ones that I had never heard of or ones I remember hearing the name of a while ago and just assumed it was a dead series



Kratos
Chance: 0%
As said others already, Sony isn't too keen on sharing their toys with the other kids. Sorry Kratos. Hopefully we get a new (and improved)playstation all-stars game

Want: 75%
I still haven't played God of War. It still sounds really cool and I'm probably missing out. It sounds really cool


Noms: Rocket League Rep x5

 

[jamesster445]

"This is Sparta"

Chance: 1%
Want: 70%

Kratos would be a cool addition and with plenty of options between the classic God of War series and his newer Dad of Boy persona. The music is great in these games and the locals. I dont think they can do a better adaptation than Mortal Kombat 9's portrayal but I'd be more than willing to let the Smash team prove me wrong. But he's such an unlikely character thanks to the fact that Sony doesnt play well with Nintendo most of the time. Theres also the brutal tone of the God of War games that might not move well with Nintendo but they made exceptions. I wouldn't rule it out completely but it's very unlikely.

"This is Spartan 117:
Chance: 1.1%
Want: 100%

I want a shooty boy. And besides the Doom guy, Master Chief is a perfect addition. Bringing all sorts of potential moveset options between UNSC, Covenant and Forerunner weaponry, Spartan abilities, Equipment in addition to the general mechanics of FPSes and Halo. You get so many great soundtracks from the series. Locales in both the single player campaigns and the multiplayer maps.

But while Microsoft and Nintendo have a great relationship between early adoption of cross play. Bringing Cuphead, Super Lucky Tales and Ori to Switch. Banjo in Smash. A lot could be used in the case of Minecraft Steve, who is more popular with the Smash fandom all things considered. And theres the tonal issues of the Halo series that might not jive well with Nintendo.

Still I couldn't think of anything better than having Xbox's Mario finishing this Fighters Pass... Vol 2.


(Also side note, history with Nintendo hasn't been that big of a deal since . Its more about Ninty's relationship with said 3rd Party)

Nominations: Jin Kazama x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today since I don't have the energy to do a big write-up. For Kratos, he just isn't happening. God of War has no connections to Nintendo whatsoever and Sony doesn't have a good relationship with Nintendo. I just don't see any kind of collaboration happening, especially when there isn't much fan demand for him. As for Master Chief, he's honestly a coin toss. Another Microsoft character would be tied with Crash and Dragonborn for most likely Western character since Sakurai has worked with them before. And Chief definitely matches Crash's level of iconic. Chief's main issues arise from lack of popularity in Japan (granted, he's much more popular than other FPS franchises like Doom, but his popularity is still pretty low) and competition with the worldwide popularity of Steve. I can imagine him being chosen if Microsoft approaches Nintendo about him but otherwise I don't see him being on Nintendo's radar, or at least not a priority.

Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Isaac - 43.67% - If it's anything like last time, he's gonna a brigade coming in insisting that he's a lock. Remember all of that Isaac evidence in prerelease that didn't come to fruition?
Ashley - 4.75%

 

[SKX31]

Smashing Gods since 2005. (Kratos)

Chance: 0,5 %

Beyond what others have already pointed out, Kratos hasn't had the position of "sole Console Mascot" as Mario and Master Chief have enjoyed. Crash enjoyed the position of "PlayStation mascot" during the PS1 days - Lara Croft certainly made a case for it too, as did Cloud and Snake. Ratchet and Clank / Jak and Daxter made a case for mascot in the early PS2 days (outside of Sony's trademark of being ungodly consistent with games) until Kratos came along and bashed everything until he took the crown.

Aaaand both Snake and Cloud are already in the game. That's another wrinkle to the "Sony not playing ball since the Nintendo PlayStation fiasco". Sakurai can just go to say Square-Enix or Activision to negotiate for Lara or Crash for "easier" characters and get somewhat similar results.

That said, Kratos does have some positives to him. His home games and PSABR gave him extensive movesets that can cover almost anything. Ordinary fighting? Blades of Chaos. Ranged? His Dad of Boy axe. Crazy stun options? Medusa's Head, or some other magic that's less gory. Likewise with the stage and music - there's loads to go with.

If for some reason Kratos does get in, he'll be easy to design and implement into a fun wrecking ball of a character.

Want: 90 %

Yes, absolutely yes. It is partly due to me personally preffering in your face rushdown characters (I'm maining Cloud, after all), but it would be an absolutely amazing to see this character in the game. I know it ain't likely, but hey, I'd pay mega dollars to see this happen.

And partly because I want to see the console barriers blown up.

Thrashing enemies since 2001... and being put into a metaphorical freezer every so often. (Master Chief)

Chance: 15 %

He probably wouldn't have rated this high without Minecraft giving Microsoft a bridge to Nintendo and Banjo-Kazooie solidifying it further with their appearance. Still though, the futurstic Spartan benefits from this a lot. Had Jak / Daxter had a Smash appearance and LBP been on the Switch the ancient mythologican Spartan would've seen a similar rise in perception.

He still probably needs something Halo-related on the Switch. Saying this because Sakurai might not view the Minecraft costume as "enough", but I could be of course off on this. Still, something that solidifies his presence on the mobile console would be a stronger indication.

He doesn't suffer either when it comes to moveset, stage or music though. Five mainline games and an unrelated Spartan's appearance in DoA has seen to it that he can pull off almost anything. From the Energy Sword to the Spartan Laser. And so on.

Want: 100 %

YES. Would adore the addition, not just because it also shatters the console barriers, but also since this would very likely be an extremely fun character. Alongside the music. Halo 2's online survived for 10 years for a reason - and even outside of that the Halo series has never really left the public spotlight.

Nominations: Rocket League rep x5
Predictions: Isaac 48 %, Ashley 3,72 %

 

[KillerCage]

I will abstain from rating Kratos as I don't care for the character and I haven't played his games.
Master Chief on the other hand...
Want 100%
Ever since Cloud was add to Smash 4's roster, I wanted to John 117 to join Smash just to break the internet.
It also helps I ACTUALLY play the first two games (via PC) and read several Halo novels.
Chance 15%
While no Halo have come to Nintendo systems (there was a DS game in development before getting canned), you could argue that Master Chief himself has appeared on later Nintendo consoles via Minecraft in a similar vain to how Cloud technically appeared on Nintendo systems before his own game did. Banjo & Kazooie's inclusion in Smash Ultimate also helps Chief as they showcase Microsoft's current relationship with Nintendo. Chief's biggest is if Microsoft is willing to allow their console mascot join a console rival's fighting game.

 

[Lyncario]

One letter away from being called like a cooking contest on tv
Chance: 8%
I don't think that he's likely. Sure, he is a big icon, and Microsoft is on good term with Nintendo, but I just don't feel like he will join Smash. Part of this is because I feel that Steve has way better chances, since Minecraft is popular in Asia unlike Halo. Steve is also more requested since longer. And Minecraft is on Nintendo systems, unlike anything from Halo (even if a DS Halo game was planned at some point). So yeah, low rating for the Chief. Also I know about the Halo collection rumors, but it feels like it was too late, even if they're from quite some time ago.
Want: 40% (neutral +)
He's iconic and Halo has some nice music. I'm not too found of fps, so I don't know a lot about him besides the really obvious. He also has a bunch of cool weapons for a potential moveset, so more power to him.

Greek mythology is very cool for creating games
Chance: 0.0000000000000000000000000000001%
For qualifying his chances, I have a single word of 2 letters. HA. Kratos has almost no chances of getting in, and if a miracle happens that ends up in him getting picked, then this timeline would really be one of the most unique there is. And if I have to give actual explanations, he's a first party Sony character, Nintendo's main competitor, and Sony is pretty protective of their ips as of late. Also, it's not 0 because Sony participated in that one Smash tuornament once, but it does not really ammount to anyhting to me.
Want:
OG Kratos (GoW 1-3): 70%
God of War was a good series of action games, and Kratos was a great protagonist for them. While I find them vastly inferior to DMC 1, 3, and 4 for the combat, but they had good writing, and very good spectacle making them very good alternative when you don't feel like using the more complex combat of DMC or Bayonneta. So yeah, I like this Kratos, and I would welcome him in Smash even if I would prefer Dante for many reasons.
New Kratos (GoW 2018): 8%
If you could not tell by my predictions for Kratos, I do not like GoW 2018. It's not a bad game, it's good, but it's a terrible sequel. Ot throws away the entire universe that was made in the first 3 games to make a new one and throw away Kratos's personality and development that he had in the 3 first games, which is pretty much why GoW was though of as good in the first place. And then they dare call it a sequel. No, this game is a reboot that spits on the originals. And it's because Sony hired new writers for GoW 2018 who had only experienced GoW trough the demo for GoW 3. This is just what Sega did for the writing of Sonic Colors, and this game (Sonic Colors) has one of the worst plot in video game history. This Kratos is an insult to the GoW series, and Sony is trying to not only pass him as "deep and developed" (despite him being less deep and far less developed than the old Kratos), with all of this deepness and development never being seen on-screen. This Kratos is strictly inferior to the old one on every point.

 

[fogbadge]

im gonna abstain on captain grumpy and the doom cosplayer and nominate nate adams x5

also i got a question about the nomination system, what happens if a character/concept that has been nominated/set to be rated ends up reveled for the game before we get to it?

 

[amageish]

Master Chief

Chance: 8%. Recall what I said yesterday about Banjo being treated as "the stars aligned perfectly and this did work out!" and me being skeptical about that sort of thing happening again? Yeah, Master Chief is included in that skepticism. Obviously they wouldn't have acted like they were going to collab again if Master Chief was happening, as they'd have likely been negotiating for Master Chief while revealing Banjo if he's happening, but I also generally don't like theories that go against things the dev team are saying, even if sometimes NDA requires leaving things unsaid....

Anyway, Chief is an iconic console-seller, but way bigger deal in the west then in Japan. Overall, it is possible, but he strikes me as a dark horse that people like to talk about more then the average dark horse.

Want: Abstain. It'd probably be worth it for reaction videos along though.

Kratos

Chance: So low that it's effectively 0%. Sony doesn't allow crossplay and isn't very good friends with Nintendo. I don't see how the negotiation process for this would begin. Even if we did get a Sony rep, then I'm not convinced it'd be Kratos. So, not much to be hopeful about there.

Want: Abstain. Ehhhhhhhhh.

Nominations: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Isaac = 65% / Ashley = 20%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Petty Officer

Chance: 15%
Master Chief is in a weird limbo where he isn't impossible but anyone who's willing to bet on him probably has a gambling addiction. Microsoft is already in Smash, and they've been playing ball with Nintendo. But on the other hand, they've announced that they're going to stop putting games on Switch, and giving Smash the rights to use a former Nintendo mascot with no games on the horizon is different than giving them the rights to their big dog mascot that has to sell their next console that's coming out this year. Right now, exclusivity is a necessity for Xbox, and they won't instill much faith in people that their console will have exclusive games when they're putting a Halo character on their rival's game. That said, the door is open, Phil Spencer is an alright guy, and at this point, Halo is a very damaged brand, so unless Infinite starts getting GOTY contender scores, the best thing Microsoft could do to drive hype is arguably putting the Chief in Smash.

Many have said that Halo, the Xbox and FPSes' unpopularity in Japan hurts. Sure, but this is Master Chief. Y'know, the guy from Halo 3, one of the few never-evers that's still around (it's basically him, Sora, and Sony characters). He'd sell like freaking hotcakes, the people at Nintendo know his impact and popularity worldwide. At worst, he gets the reaction Terry got in the West, but just in Japan, and in the rest of the world he breaks the internet.

And finally, the budget. Yeah, I agree with waddledeeonredyoshi in that I don't expect any of these big expensive characters. Microsoft would be insane not to charge a ton for him (unless, again, they really want that Smash promotion). So that's another point against him.

Aside from that, he's a perfect fit. Halo is dramatic but not adult, he comes from a fantasy sci-fi universe and uses plasma weapons and swords. He has the moveset, he has the stage, he has the Spirits, and boy does he have the music.

Want: 100%
C'mon Sakurai, we need to finish the fight.

Did you know they made games about Atreus' dad?

Chance: 1%
Sorry dad, you're owned by Sony.

I don't think it's impossible that Sony opens up. We're seeing kind of a weird transition towards next gen. Sony just put Death Stranding on PC, and Horizon will soon follow. Meanwhile, Xbox is scaling back their multiplat efforts and notorious anti-console wars spokesman Phil Spencer recently came out with fighting words that Sony's tactics are not the way to go. Both systems are clearly bringing their all to the next gen, and even with Xbox's prospects I imagine they'd still like to win in raw numbers. As it stands, right now, Sony's playing the game to win, Nintendo's playing to have fun, and Microsoft wants to change the game altogether. So a lot depends on whether the console business or it's hierarchy are disrupted. Sony will keep playing the strongman as long as they're winning. But if, say, Xbox beats them out the gate like last gen, or if the post-Covid recession impacts both of them and the Switch maintains its lead on them, or if it turns out that game streaming is the future and Sony has to pivot their whole strategy, then I could see them being more open to playing along with Nintendo.

I realize after writing this that this would take at least a year to pan out and the Fighter Pass has already chosen its characters so all of this is moot, but I'm not gonna erase it now, I need those 4 sentences.

Aside from that, the usual, Kratos is violent but can be toned down, Snake, Bayonetta, Joker, competition from Nathan Drake, etc.

Want: 99%
I love the God of War games, they have amazing combat, settings, visual design, everything. Kratos himself is an interesting character that keeps finding ways to grow and develop, which is a testament to how much the creators love the series. And overall seeing him in Smash, seeing a PlayStation guy in Smash, that would be something to behold. Not 100% because my favored Sony rep is Nathan Drake (who right now I'd say has the edge to claim the title of Sony mascot), but you ain't gonna find me complaining about Kratos.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Isaac prediction: 23.07%
Ashley prediction: 6.66%

also i got a question about the nomination system, what happens if a character/concept that has been nominated/set to be rated ends up reveled for the game before we get to it?

Well, they're confirmed, so we don't rate them and they're removed from the noms list/schedule. This happened with Joker, he was announced like 3 days before we rated him.

 

[fogbadge]

Petty Officer

Chance: 15%
Master Chief is in a weird limbo where he isn't impossible but anyone who's willing to bet on him probably has a gambling addiction. Microsoft is already in Smash, and they've been playing ball with Nintendo. But on the other hand, they've announced that they're going to stop putting games on Switch, and giving Smash the rights to use a former Nintendo mascot with no games on the horizon is different than giving them the rights to their big dog mascot that has to sell their next console that's coming out this year. Right now, exclusivity is a necessity for Xbox, and they won't instill much faith in people that their console will have exclusive games when they're putting a Halo character on their rival's game. That said, the door is open, Phil Spencer is an alright guy, and at this point, Halo is a very damaged brand, so unless Infinite starts getting GOTY contender scores, the best thing Microsoft could do to drive hype is arguably putting the Chief in Smash.

Many have said that Halo, the Xbox and FPSes' unpopularity in Japan hurts. Sure, but this is Master Chief. Y'know, the guy from Halo 3, one of the few never-evers that's still around (it's basically him, Sora, and Sony characters). He'd sell like freaking hotcakes, the people at Nintendo know his impact and popularity worldwide. At worst, he gets the reaction Terry got in the West, but just in Japan, and in the rest of the world he breaks the internet.

And finally, the budget. Yeah, I agree with waddledeeonredyoshi in that I don't expect any of these big expensive characters. Microsoft would be insane not to charge a ton for him (unless, again, they really want that Smash promotion). So that's another point against him.

Aside from that, he's a perfect fit. Halo is dramatic but not adult, he comes from a fantasy sci-fi universe and uses plasma weapons and swords. He has the moveset, he has the stage, he has the Spirits, and boy does he have the music.

Want: 100%
C'mon Sakurai, we need to finish the fight.

Did you know they made games about Atreus' dad?

Chance: 1%
Sorry dad, you're owned by Sony.

I don't think it's impossible that Sony opens up. We're seeing kind of a weird transition towards next gen. Sony just put Death Stranding on PC, and Horizon will soon follow. Meanwhile, Xbox is scaling back their multiplat efforts and notorious anti-console wars spokesman Phil Spencer recently came out with fighting words that Sony's tactics are not the way to go. Both systems are clearly bringing their all to the next gen, and even with Xbox's prospects I imagine they'd still like to win in raw numbers. As it stands, right now, Sony's playing the game to win, Nintendo's playing to have fun, and Microsoft wants to change the game altogether. So a lot depends on whether the console business or it's hierarchy are disrupted. Sony will keep playing the strongman as long as they're winning. But if, say, Xbox beats them out the gate like last gen, or if the post-Covid recession impacts both of them and the Switch maintains its lead on them, or if it turns out that game streaming is the future and Sony has to pivot their whole strategy, then I could see them being more open to playing along with Nintendo.

I realize after writing this that this would take at least a year to pan out and the Fighter Pass has already chosen its characters so all of this is moot, but I'm not gonna erase it now, I need those 4 sentences.

Aside from that, the usual, Kratos is violent but can be toned down, Snake, Bayonetta, Joker, competition from Nathan Drake, etc.

Want: 99%
I love the God of War games, they have amazing combat, settings, visual design, everything. Kratos himself is an interesting character that keeps finding ways to grow and develop, which is a testament to how much the creators love the series. And overall seeing him in Smash, seeing a PlayStation guy in Smash, that would be something to behold. Not 100% because my favored Sony rep is Nathan Drake (who right now I'd say has the edge to claim the title of Sony mascot), but you ain't gonna find me complaining about Kratos.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Isaac prediction: 23.07%
Ashley prediction: 6.66%


Well, they're confirmed, so we don't rate them and they're removed from the noms list/schedule. This happened with Joker, he was announced like 3 days before we rated him.

you’ve still got a person of colour on the nomination list even though we just got one

 

[Jomosensual]

Master Chief

Chance 30 - Dont think this will happen but there's a solid shot. Nintendo and Microsoft work together well now and Chief is easily the biggest name from MS. The big issue I see here is that Halo isn't very popular in the east. While it is huge in the west and is basically what's carrying MS's first party games at this point, one of the bigger issues with Smash's roster is that it's mostly biased towards the east. While that's started to change recently it's not completely gone and will probably never really be. It could work in his advantage since MS might want to push Chief in the east for the release of XBox Series X but Nintendo still has to ask for him first. That and the fact it seems like we're working with a lower budget and I don't feel confident. I'm also not convinced that we're getting the high profile names in this pass either.

Want 100 - Master Chief is without a doubt a gaming icon and would be a huge get for the game. Only maybe Lara Croft or Kratos could hit the levels of craziness Chief being in Smash would be, and it would be an inclusion with so much hype that it would be hard for someone who enjoys video games to not know about. I love moments like that and therefore I want Master Chief.


Kratos

Chance 5 - Very unlikely, however I see a path or 2 here. The first one is that Sony is gonna want to push the PS5. That's obvious. Would they do it via Smash? Maybe I guess. Probably not since they don't really need Smash to promote a console but weirder things have happened. Personally though I feel like while Sony still isn't the best with playing with the other 2 big companies, we're probably closer to getting something like this than ever before. I think people blow the Sony/Nintendo feud out of proportion. What went down happened in the early 90s, which is 30 years ago now. A lot of the people involved in that are likely gone now and I also don't think that Sakurai cares considering he plays PS games and has owned a lot of the consoles. Like I said above, this pass doesn't seem like it's about slamming all the most hype names together as possible so I doubt we're gonna get 5 tame names and then Kratos in there too.

So why am I above 0 on this though? Well, it seems like Sony is more open to it. They have Horizon Zero Dawn and Death Stranding set to release on PC at some point. They're more open to not hogging everything to themselves it seems and while it's a step away from getting to the point where Kratos is in Smash, we are closer now. Also, there's some fan demand starting to form here. While hardly official and there was a case or two of pretty obvious voting manipulation going on(like the 11th place finisher, for example) Source Gaming did a huge Smash ballot poll again recently and Kratos finished 58th which was good enough to beat out some names brought up in regular character discussion. That tells me fans are interested and aren't just writing him off anymore like a lot of Sony reps in the past. Maybe this new burst of interest dies off once Smash goes away for a while but right now it seems like people in fact do want him.


Want 100 - Would love this. Even though my absolute most wanted is Nathan Drake I have a hard time seeing a scenario where Kratos gets in and I'm mad. First, it would be such a huge deal that there's no reason to be mad, and then also the flood gates would likely be opened. Sony owns so many great characters and series that it would be awesome to get them into the Smash discussion. Also, if Master Chief getting in would break the internet then Kratos getting in would shatter it. While there's still somehow a lot of hype moments left for Smash reveals to cover such as an indie, Geno, and a lot of big names, I can't see a bigger reveal than one of Sony's top guys.

(Also I started a Sony rep support thread late last year. Come say hi if you feel like it)


Predictions
Ashley - 5%
Isaac - 51%

Noms
Riptor x5
A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x5

 

[Jomosensual]

im gonna abstain on captain grumpy and the doom cosplayer and nominate nate adams x5

also i got a question about the nomination system, what happens if a character/concept that has been nominated/set to be rated ends up reveled for the game before we get to it?

We would just pull them off the schedule and bump everyone up a day. Happened with Joker when he was revealed a week before we got to him

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Crash Bandicoot/Spyro the Dragon pre-Master Chief/Kratos

Concept: A person of color x190
Tidus x165
Moogle x160
Nate Adams x145
Alex Mason x125
Shuichi Saihara x121
The Stretchers x120

150 - 101

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Ezio x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Frisk x110
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x110

100 - 51

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Billy Hatcher x75
Echo: Xion (Sora) x72
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Sakura Shinguji x68
The Terrarian x60
Riptor x60
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x55
Concept: Deltarune content x52

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Giygas x47
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x47
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Klonoa x45
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x45
Concept: Rocket League rep x45
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x35
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Monokuma x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Dr. Goomba Tower x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
John Marston x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
Vi (Bug Fables) x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Concept: Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Monster Hunter and Concept: Deltarune content venture forth and past 50 noms.

Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep reaches 25 noms.

Today's new concept is literally time-sensitive: with 5 noms, we have Fighter Pass 2 gets delayed!

you’ve still got a person of colour on the nomination list even though we just got one

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on either of these two. Although I seriously doubt a Sony rep is happening.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

GoodGrief741 About the diversity thing, and please forgive me if I come off the wrong way, but I honestly think Min Min should count for that. It's very obvious she's meant to be Chinese, though whether or not she's good representation is subjective. Given that the nomination never specified what they meant by "diversity", I think we should be able to count this as a confirmation.

That being said, I'm not very knowledgeable on race or ethnicity, so please forgive me if I come off as insensitive.

 

[warpenguin55]

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

I think it should stay up there. If there are people still noming it after Min Min, than to me it looks like they aren't counting her. Or maybe they do count her, but wanted to keep noming the concept to see if we think there will be another POC as DLC? I have no idea really, I'm not one of the people noming the concept.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on either of these two. Although I seriously doubt a Sony rep is happening.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

GoodGrief741 About the diversity thing, and please forgive me if I come off the wrong way, but I honestly think Min Min should count for that. It's very obvious she's meant to be Chinese, though whether or not she's good representation is subjective. Given that the nomination never specified what they meant by "diversity", I think we should be able to count this as a confirmation.

That being said, I'm not very knowledgeable on race or ethnicity, so please forgive me if I come off as insensitive.

Honestly, the whole concept is gonna be a can of worms once we discuss it.

 

[fogbadge]

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

thats fair

 

[Wunderwaft]

Master Chief

Chance: 40%
I actually think Chief has a good shot. We know Microsoft has a good relationship with Nintendo and are collaborating with them on Smash. Why isn't it any higher? Well....it's because Steve exists. Minecraft was the bridge between Nintendo and Microsoft, Rare said so when asked about Banjo's inclusion. With how big and important Minecraft is, I can totally see Steve getting in instead. However, this is THE Master Chief we're talking about. If it was any other character I'd be less forgiving, but this is the mascot of a console, I can see him having a shot for getting in despite Minecraft's popularity.

Want: 93%
You bet your ass I want Chief in. It's really hard for me to choose between him and Steve since I like both characters and wish to see them both in Smash. However, if given the choice between one of the two, I would choose Chief for how big of a deal he is.



Kratos

Chance: 10%
Not exactly the best chances. However, I would like to make a case for a Sony character. While Sony isn't in the best of relationships with Nintendo, their main competitor is Microsoft, it's been like that since the last generation. Sony dropped out of the portable gaming market so they're not competing with Nintendo on that front. And they're definitely not competing on the home console department, both target different audiences, Sony said so themselves.

Now then, this doesn't exactly guarantee that Sony might agree to a character and we don't know if Nintendo might approach them in the first place. But the idea is so outlandish that I can't help but think it's possible, albeit unlikely.


Want: 100%
My most wanted pipe dream character for Smash. I played the God of War games, I love them and I love Kratos as a character. Kratos already appeared in a platform fighter (where he was broken as hell) and I enjoyed playing him there. Besides Ratchet and Clank, Kratos has the most moveset potential out of all of Sony's characters. I don't think this will happen, but if it does then NOTHING will ever surpass this reveal for me.


Nomination: Monster Hunter x5
Prediction: Isaac 37.5% , Ashley 3.1%

 

[Perkilator]

Honestly, the whole concept is gonna be a can of worms once we discuss it.

I agree. And without sounding racist, it’s something I’m not sure I want there to be a discussion about at all.

 

[CornOnTheCob]

Master Chief

Chance: 6.5%

I feel that Microsoft agreeing to Banjo came about through intense fan demand in the entire history of Smash plus Rare developing for Nintendo systems. While this is a sign that Microsoft is more amiable about cross-company promotion, I don't think they would agree to one of their more profitable and famous reps that easily compared to someone like Banjo who was acquired.

Want: 20%
I've never played a Halo game before, but I have watched a Let's Play of a couple games and Master Chief seems like an interesting fighter. His historical value and having an Xbox-seller on a Switch fighting game would be cool.

Kratos

Chance: 3%

Sony, while they are now being open to PC ports and crossplay, took a long time to get there, plus they have never done any sort of collaboration with Nintendo, other than that Smash tournament attendence, which IMO is just a minor thing in the grand scheme. They are successful with the PS4 and the PS5 reveal has generated plenty of hype. I don't think "let's put one of our reps on Nintendo to advertise one of our own exclusives" is on any executive's mind.

Want: abstain
I have even less experience with GoW than Halo. He seems to have cool moveset ideas as a fighter and I'd be mildly happy about any Sony rep, but I don't really know the guy or his series other than it being a hack-and-slash.

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

I am Taiwanese-American. Min Min is cool, her design + her stage music in ARMS a bit stereotypical but I don't get any vibes it was done in a negative way. Hair and eye color, yeah I guess but Ninjara and Twintelle (Japanese and French, or at least analogues of them) have green and pinkish-white hair, plus hair dye exists. I guess you could reword the PoC concept to "non-Asian PoC?" I agree that there would be some nasty undercurrents to the conversation if we were debating the concept.

....yeahh, I don't think that putting this up to a chance/want debate would be worth it.

Forgot the predictions and nominations:

Ashley 6%
Isaac 29%

Nomination: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x5

 

[SharkLord]

I am Taiwanese-American. Min Min is cool, her design + her stage music in ARMS a bit stereotypical but I don't get any vibes it was done in a negative way. I guess you could reword the PoC concept to "non-Asian PoC?" I agree that there would be some nasty undercurrents to the conversation if we were debating the concept.

Trying not to say anything that might have some unfortunate implications, but the debates I've seen involving Min Min and a minority alternative mostly seem to have Twintelle mentioned as the preferred pick for those who wanted a "Person of Color" (Even though Min Min counts too, unless I'm wrong on the definition). It might be because of the political climate at the time, but I've also noticed that we don't have a full black character on the roster (There's alts but those aren't the defaults, and I'm not sure Ganondorf counts). I think a lot of the time, when people suggest a "Person of Color," they mean a black character. Then again, maybe some people have a different racial/ethnic group in mind.

 

[Lyncario]

I forgot to say that I nominate an SMT rep for 5 again.

 

[SKX31]

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

GoodGrief741 About the diversity thing, and please forgive me if I come off the wrong way, but I honestly think Min Min should count for that. It's very obvious she's meant to be Chinese, though whether or not she's good representation is subjective. Given that the nomination never specified what they meant by "diversity", I think we should be able to count this as a confirmation.

That being said, I'm not very knowledgeable on race or ethnicity, so please forgive me if I come off as insensitive.

Okay, I'm going to answer Min Min's case specifically:

I've looked around on Chinese social media (as I generally do), and I haven't seen many - if any - complaints re: Min Min. The fact that she spoke Chinese was noted - I don't think the seiyuu's performance was criticized at all.

It's partly due to ARMS having no real foothold there. One Weibo - Chinese Twitter - post I saw even lamented over ARMS' lack of popularity. But I'm not completely surprised since there's a massive anime fanbase there too. Your average Chinese anime fan is going to be used to the array of hair and eye colors. Hell, I just browsed Bilibili (China's Youtube / Crunchyroll) and saw a Persona 4 Golden Steam version* playthrough on the front page. Besides a Naruto episode.

Suffice it to say, I don't think there's a lot of controversy over Min Min there. There could be Chinese people disliking her, of course, but haven't seen that on the Smash posts. At least, not much.

But on the whole, yes, it's going to be a can of worms still. We'll likely have to take that one very carefully.

*For anyone asking, Steam is very popular in China because it's not affected by censorship at all - it operates in a legal grey area, And as such many Chinese use it as a way to get international games. Likewise, most Nintendo Switches and all copies of Smash Ultimate there so far are bought and imported via grey market sellers on the net.

 

[Calamitas]

Dad of Boy

Chance: 0%
You remember how it took Banjo and Kazooie years of good relationships between Nintendo and Microsoft for them to make it to Smash? And you know what Nintendo and Sony don't have? That. They don't have that. There's absolutely no way we're seeing a Sony character like Kratos in Smash.

Want: 0%
And quite frankly, I don't care much for him either. All I've seen of the guy really isn't interesting to me in the slightest.

The one chef that is superior to all the other chefs

Chance: 3%
Guess I'm falling strictly into the "low chance"-camp here, which seems to exist. Simply put, it took Banjo and Kazooie decades of fan support to be added into Smash, and that's with them hailing from a game series that's at least known or cared about in Japan. And you know what Japan quite famously doesn't exactly care for? FPSes. The idea that Nintendo or Sakurai and his team would want to have those represented in Smash hinges entirely on the idea of them seeing Smash as some sort of comprehensive "video game hall of fame", which it pretty much isn't. And again then there's also the issue of Master Chief being a Western third-party character with no direct ties to any Japanese company, which, as of yet, is a hurdle that hasn't been crossed yet.

Chance: 0%
I really don't care for Master Chief. His design looks generic as all hell to me, and I've never been big on any FPS myself. The only thing I ever played that sort of qualifies as one of those is the Metroid Prime series, and even that is rather arguable. I'd just really rather not have this guy in Smash.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.

Predicting Ashley to get around 2.37%.
Predicting Isaac to get around 37.93%.

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

I don't consider myself to be too well-versed in any race-related topics myself, but my two cents on the matter are that Min Min is Chinese in the same way that Red and Leaf (as in, the Pokémon Trainers) are Japanese. That is to say, technically, but it is sort of arguable case just how much they really qualify as representation.

 

[amageish]

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

Of course, we'd love to hear everyone's input about this, it's a super delicate subject and more voices can only be better. At the end of the day, since the people nominating the PoC concept kept nominating it after Min Min, I assumed that she just didn't fully fit what the concept was meant to discuss.

Had this discussion happened in public right after Min Min's reveal, then I feel like there would have been a solid case to be made for counting the concept as confirmed with Min Min. However, weeks later when the people who were nominating it have continued to nominate it after Min Min's reveal? I think it's clear people want to discuss the roster's lack of racial diversity in this thread and speculate about how likely that is to change. Taking away the nominations now would, to me, come across as just postphoning the day we discuss it.

I mean, heck, it's another 33 days away at mimumum and, frankly, there is a non-zero chance that we'll have another character reveal before this fixed schedule is over (would that result in a revised/second fixed schedule?)... I think it's both easier and better to just proceed as-is as let the thread dicuss diversity in a month then argue about if the discussion should really be happening in a month and a half due to Min Min.

 

[BowserKing]

Kratos

Chance: 5%. I’m giving Kratos 5% because of his popularity and that we have seen unlikely characters get in before. But the fact that Sony is the owner basically keeps him (and pretty much everyone owned by Sony) from getting in so far, but we have been surprised before.

Want: 55%. On the other hand, Kratos would be fun to play as, and he has lots of potential. Perhaps his classic mode would have him face off against Rathalos as a boss. I can also see him in a free for all against Snake, Bayonetta, Bowser and Ridley. Overall, Kratos would be a great choice, even if it’s mostly unlikely.

Master Chief

Chance: 20%. His chance is higher due to Microsoft being less of a rival then Sony is. Plus with Banjo and Kazooie joining Ultimate, Master Chief’s Chance is quite high. Plus the people who helped made Halo wants Master Chief in smash, which’s counts as a bonus.

Want: 55%. While I honestly prefer it if Steve got in as the second Microsoft rep, Master Chief would be fun to play as, and there is some potential, like a free for all with Samus and Snake. Also I think Galeom would be the best choice for Master Chief’s final opponent in classic mode. Overall, Master Chief would be a fun addition as well.

Prediction: Ashley (10%) and Issac (15%)

Noms: 5 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep

 

[GoodGrief741]

C chocolatejr9 warpenguin55 DrifloonEmpire Perkilator CornOnTheCob SharkLord SKX31 Calamitas amageish Thank you all for your input, we've read what you have to say and are having discussions about how to proceed with that concept taking it into account. Anyone else who has something to comment on the matter, as long as it's respectful it'll be appreciated.

Spoiler: Calcs

Crash Bandicoot
51.17% Chance - 73.08% Want
First time we rated him he got 27.36% chance and 57.50% want. This was pre-Joker and before the announcement of CTR Nitro-Fueled, so I guess many thought Crash could be a one-and-done. Next time he got 51.80% chance and 77.95% want. At this point, CTR was nearly out and E3 was just around the corner, so understandably Crash hype was at a fever pitch. After E3 came and seemingly cemented Doomguy and Hayabusa as the last two characters, Crash dipped a bit, 49.21% chance and 70.49% want. Last time we rated him, after Byleth, he got 59.26% chance and 75.78% want. A new, clean-slate Pass, plus a recent credible leak (which has since been debunked) really helped him at the time, and many saw him as the frontrunner for FP6. But it turned out to be Min Min, and it looks like that's had a flattening effect on the chances of the biggest third party characters.
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 52.74%. This is the first time I've won noms in months so I'll take it. Fun fact, last time I won them was with Min Min, so good omen maybe?
Crash loses his spot as the likeliest character, yielding to Rex (would you look at that, a Nintendo character topping the chart, that's gotta be a first since Akira Howard got Spirited), but he's still the second most likely and the most likely third party. As for want, he doesn't reclaim that either, with Phoenix Wright taking the top spot for third parties and Dixie Kong being the queen overall. He'll have to be content with third place.

Spyro the Dragon
7.65% Chance - 59.77% Want
First time we rated him he got 13.30% chance and 54.58% want. The Switch port for Reignited Trilogy had just been announced, and as you can see it clearly led to his all time high chance score. Last time we rated him he got 9.58% chance and 52.04% want. This was after Byleth's reveal, and already you can see the downward trend in chance; not much else to say, the notion of him being a no-hoper in the face of Crash grows more and more prevalent.
Winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 with a precise 8.00%

Extra noms list

Artix 15
Awakining 5
BowserKing 10
Calamitas 20
DanganZilla5 10
DaUsername 92
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 5
Icedragonadam 5
NintenRob 20
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
SKX31 5
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15

 

[Lionfranky]

Oh boy... here I go

Master Chief
Chance: 60%

I just want to go against the flow and rate Chief higher than Crash. My reason is that right now, MS seems more willing to cooperate with Nintendo than Activision does. "But Activision put N.Sane trilogy on Switch!" But, it wasn't until employee pitched Switch port to convince Activision. On the other hand, Microsoft took the matters into their own hands and helped developers of Ori and Cuphead release their games on Switch. And there is record of Activision denying Crash because they asked bigger fee for PSABR.

"But they said they won't release anymore of their game!"

It was more in line of "lower your expectation." Switch won't even be able to handle most of Xbox exclusives due to technical difficulty. And we have many characters whose mainline games don't even show up on Switch. So putting MCC on Switch can still be beneficial to MS as well as Nintendo.

"FPS in general including Halo (and Xbox) don't do well in Japan!"

So? How much sales does Japan account for? I am not trying to downplay Japan, but I feel this is more of fan rule like "violence" "gun." In sense that, it will eventually be broken. Smash sells like hot cake in west where majority of the sales come from. Despite diminished status, Halo is still phenomenon in west. How much people get hyped for Halo 3 PC ports and Infinite. Out of all FPS characters mentioned, Chief is the most famous of them all in Japan at least. Halo anime sold decently in Japan, so that's another plus.

"Min Min shows that Nintendo won't go for big fish due to reduced budget!!"

Remember how everyone was so sure that first pass would be all third party? Sure, big fish like Chief will come with bigger price than Banjo, but so would Crash. And by look of it, Activision seems on greedier side. And, MS dream is expanding Xbox ecosystem beyond just console. They said they want to put Game Pass even on Playstation if possible. So, Chief in Smash could be another step toward that goal. If official Twitter account is anything to go by, MS is pretty willing to offer Master Chief.

And there is King Zell who seems persistent on Halo on Switch. We will find soon enough whether he is correct or not.

Want: 100%

I used to attend video game club during my high school. We all played so many games. Especially, Smash and Halo were good memory that I cherish. I bought Brawl and Halo 3, so I can play those games with my college mates. So, bringing these two together would be like reminding me of good ol' friendship. And, I can't wait to say "Hah! I told you so!"

Kratos
Chance: 0%

Simply because there is no visible relationship between Sony and Nintendo. I believe relationship between the two parties is far more important factor regional market factor. Sony's arrogance is starting kicking again. That's another reason why they won't let Nintendo use their characters.

Want: 80%

Kratos would be nice addition. He has lots of moveset and stage potential. His inclusion would be like shattering console war.

Nom: Neptune from Neptunia x 5

 

[Ninjaed]

We did discuss this with the team, it's a super complex subject of course, both to define what constitutes a character of color and what, specifically, people are looking to discuss with that concept. Min Min speaks Chinese, and is pretty clearly inspired by Chun-Li, a canonically Chinese character. At the same time, Min Min is a blonde with green eyes; I don't pretend to speak for any group I don't belong to, but I think it's a fair possibility that Chinese people don't actually feel represented by her. Her being depicted in a cartoony, exaggerated and unrealistic style only further confuses the question.

I don't think that ever mattered to the dev team. Unless you mean to tell us Italians feel represented by Mario or Luigi. And I honestly don't think including 1 character for every nation on the globe so that "people feel represented" is a good idea. Terry for instance represents SA far better than Blanka ever could... for what it's worth. My country isn't represented and I honestly don't know anyone who could be bothered to care otherwise.

 

[fogbadge]

I don't think that ever mattered to the dev team. Unless you mean to tell us Italians feel represented by Mario or Luigi. And I honestly don't think including 1 character for every nation on the globe so that "people feel represented" is a good idea. Terry for instance represents SA far better than Blanka ever could... for what it's worth. My country isn't represented and I honestly don't know anyone who could be bothered to care otherwise.

im genuinely curious are there any characters that represent your country?