Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[fogbadge]

Color Splash sold abysmally even by Wii U standards, so they're continuing the series because it has Mario on the title and there's not a lot of risk involved.

which would tie in to my suggestion that theyre focused of fire emblem now and they just worked on these in the back ground

Paper Mario is instead an ongoing series with an ongoing marketing campaign (due to the new game), and no matter how much hated by the hardcore fans the new games are, that's the new identity of the franchise in the eyes of Nintendo, so that's how I expect the character to be represented.

surely the hardcore fans are the ones who play the games no matter what

 

[Iko MattOrr]

However, there is a distinction to be made in that Captain Toad isn't just unable to jump due to the mechanics of the game, but also that there's a canonical reason why he can't jump (his backpack is too heavy). That's a big aspect of his design as a character, and it separates him from characters like Olimar, Little Mac, and Link (in most games) because while those characters can't jump in-game, there isn't a reason why they couldn't jump, whereas there is with Captain Toad.

As far as I know it was never officially mentioned that he can't jump due to the backpack...
There's an interview where they talk about the development of the game, and there they say that Captain Toad (the game) was originally going to be a Zelda game, and that they replaced the character because they didn't want it to be able to fight the enemies directly, and Link was unfitting for the concept.

In that interview they also talk about the backpack, but the thing was more like "hey, Link can't jump, we need another character who feels like he wouldn't jump" "Cpt Toad has a big backpack, he fits the concept". That was mostly a side thing, because the biggest reason for why they choose Cpt Toad was that they needed a courageous character who despite being courageous wouldn't be able to manage a direct fight with the enemies because too weak.

So, while the backpack was indeed a factor in the desing of the game, it was not a major factor; the point is, Cpt Toad can't jump because Link can't jump, because the game was originally going to feature Link in the first place; the backpack is just a detail.

Imo in Smash it would make him have an heavy and laggy jump at worst, not being unable to jump at all.

 

[NintenRob]

While I don't think it's a big hurdle, Sakurai's done more with less. Being unable to jump was kinda the point, remember he was originally a side mode in a game with very heavy emphasis on jumping. He was there playable character who couldn't jump when everyone else had excellent jumps

 

[fogbadge]

As far as I know it was never officially mentioned that he can't jump due to the backpack...
There's an interview where they talk about the development of the game, and there they say that Captain Toad (the game) was originally going to be a Zelda game, and that they replaced the character because they didn't want it to be able to fight the enemies directly, and Link was unfitting for the concept.

In that interview they also talk about the backpack, but the thing was more like "hey, Link can't jump, we need another character who feels like he wouldn't jump" "Cpt Toad has a big backpack, he fits the concept". That was mostly a side thing, because the biggest reason for why they choose Cpt Toad was that they needed a courageous character who despite being courageous wouldn't be able to manage a direct fight with the enemies because too weak.

So, while the backpack was indeed a factor in the desing of the game, it was not a major factor; the point is, Cpt Toad can't jump because Link can't jump, because the game was originally going to feature Link in the first place; the backpack is just a detail.

Imo in Smash it would make him have an heavy and laggy jump at worst, not being unable to jump at all.

in the captain toad levels in 3d world when you press the jump button it shown that he is shown trying to jump

 

[Iko MattOrr]

in the captain toad levels in 3d world when you press the jump button it shown that he is shown trying to jump

I didn't know that, I only played the WiiU spin-off and don't own 3D World (skipped it on puprose because i didn't like the level design); there was a run button on that version but it was kinda unintuitive because the speed boost was so small that was unnoticeable but it was required for some time attacks (I got Barrel of Doom-ed for a while because I didn't know it was a run button).

Regardless I still doubt they would make a character who can't jump at all in Smash, how would you play in stages like Brinstar Depths?

 

[Jomosensual]

Is Captian Toad not the same as the main Toad in cannon? If not then i don't think jumping is a real issue since the normal Toad jumps a ton

 

[fogbadge]

I didn't know that, I only played the WiiU spin-off and don't own 3D World (skipped it on puprose because i didn't like the level design); there was a run button on that version but it was kinda unintuitive because the speed boost was so small that was unnoticeable but it was required for some time attacks (I got Barrel of Doom-ed for a while because I didn't know it was a run button).

Regardless I still doubt they would make a character who can't jump at all in Smash, how would you play in stages like Brinstar Depths?

its certainly been one of the more interesting topics of conversation in the support thread

Is Captian Toad not the same as the main Toad in cannon? If not then i don't think jumping is a real issue since the normal Toad jumps a ton

well it would seem in galaxy he was meant to be the toad but in other games he seemed to be separate but nintendo arent really sticklers for canon

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Is Captian Toad not the same as the main Toad in cannon? If not then i don't think jumping is a real issue since the normal Toad jumps a ton

http://web.archive.org/web/20170202...e.nintendo.net/replies/AYMHAAACAAADVHhqTRtYFw The official statements are they're separate people. The confusion over them being the same is from the Prima Strategy Guide, an unofficial source.

Super Mario Pia, the official Mario source book, covered that during the 30th anniversary.

"Super Mario Pia, page 59:
キノピオ
キノコ王国の住人たち。ピーチをさらわれてマリオに助けを求めるのがお約束のシリーズを代表するキャラで、赤色や黄色などカラーはさまざま。また、キノじいやキノピオ隊長など固有の名前をもつものもいる。
This translates to
Toad
The inhabitants of the Mushroom Kingdom. Seeking Mario's help when Peach has been kidnapped is a typical characteristic representing this series [of characters], and they come in various colors such as red and yellow. Also, there are some who have unique names, such as Toadsworth, Captain Toad, and the like."

Basically he's literally just another member of the species like Toadsworth is, a very good example. Now, if you want one who at least is the same person(I'd say clearly, but is... it really clear? Though at least Toad is both a name and a species anyway), you do have Toadette, as they've done nothing to suggest she's different from Captain Toadette. There's no statements to separate them and she was an easy option for another playable character. The director, who I linked to above, doesn't bother to actually speak on her, so she's probably just there to help another Toad at that point.

To further the above example, Toadsworth also has Kinopio in his name in some languages. In one case, it's Maestro Kinopio. Now keeping in mind that Toad is officially also called Kinopio, and Captain Toad is called Kinopio Taicho, it gives a good idea that the word Kinopio clearly has been used as a designation. It's basically like Bowser and Bowser Jr. at this point when it comes to different names. Or in the case of Japanese, Koopa and Koopa Jr. So the names are rather consistent. Even Toadette is a spin-off of the name Kinopio, being Kinopiko, basically being combined with the word Ko, meaning child. Captain Toad's own brigade is also similar, being called Kinopio Tankentai, meaning Toad Expedition Team. The problem is they try to reuse the names often and have failed to make it obvious to people that despite clearly being a variation on the character's personality, they're different people. They didn't actually separate them like Mario and Metal Mario are now either, and the latter started as a power-up who gained his own identity first in Smash Bros., and only loosely. Here's one more quick example too; Kōkogakusha Kinopio which means Archaeologist Toad, who only appears in The Origami King. He has nothing to do with the main Toad and shares a naming scheme too. He's known as Professor Toad in the US. They just use the name too interchangeably for the species and characters of the species. That happens too often.

 

[GoodGrief741]

As far as I know it was never officially mentioned that he can't jump due to the backpack...

It has.

Regardless I still doubt they would make a character who can't jump at all in Smash, how would you play in stages like Brinstar Depths?

That's the interesting part! It would require the devs to look at his playstyle in a very outside the box fashion. He could still maybe spawn objects from his game to propel him upwards for his Up-B like Sonic and Banjo. But a character who has a completely different way to play the airgame sounds super interesting.

 

[Calamitas]

"Toad Punch! Toad Kick! C'mon! Blue Toad!"

Chance: 18%
Never say never, but. . . I don't really see Toad as that strong of a contender. Treasure Tracker did obviously sell well over its various iterations, but my big issue with it is that we haven't really seen any kind of follow-up for it that furthers Captain Toad's protagonist role. The only major appearance since Treasure Tracker that we have seen him in was in Odyssey, where he was just one NPC out of many. What's also not helping is that (to my knowledge at least) he hasn't really made any appearances in Mario spin-offs yet. All that being said, we do need to keep in mind that this year is a noteworthy anniversary for the Mario series. Admittedly, Smash hasn't historically cared much about those when it comes to character choices, but I could see them pushing for a new Mario character considering the mascot status the series has.

Want: 20%
Eh, sure, I suppose he could be fun. I did play his game in the original Wii U release and liked it well enough, but I wouldn't really call it one of the greatest games I ever played by any stretch of the imagination. There are still many other Mario characters that I'd take over him.

Mr Paper and Mario

Chance: 30%
Paper Mario as a series has already been going on for quite a while, having a decent bit of legacy, which was already honored with a stage in Smash 3DS, which was carried over to Ultimate. With Origami King releasing soon, and the Mario series' anniversary, I could see them pushing for a promotional pick with him, but at the same time. . . I'm not entirely convinced. Call it cynical, but the only time we've really gotten what could be considered DLC shill picks (or just shill picks in general) were Fire Emblem characters with Roy, Corrin and Byleth. Whether Nintendo would really want to further push Origami King with Paper Mario's inclusion is something I'm not entirely convinced of, even if he has some notable fan support.

Want: 25%
Similar to Captain Toad. Could be fun, but not really my most wanted by any means. The only Paper Mario games I played are the ones that are by most fans considered to be the "lesser" ones - that is, Super, Sticker Star and Colour Splash (and Paper Jam, if you count that). While I did like Super quite a bit for its story, the other ones didn't leave that terribly much of an impact on me, so that might hamper my own want score here.

Nominating Concept: A person of colour x5.

Predictions. . . uhh, I'll edit those in in a sec.
Edit: Here we go.
Crash - 69.69% (nice)
Spyro - 12.34%

 

[fogbadge]

http://web.archive.org/web/20170202...e.nintendo.net/replies/AYMHAAACAAADVHhqTRtYFw The official statements are they're separate people. The confusion over them being the same is from the Prima Strategy Guide, an unofficial source.

Super Mario Pia, the official Mario source book, covered that during the 30th anniversary.

"Super Mario Pia, page 59:
キノピオ
キノコ王国の住人たち。ピーチをさらわれてマリオに助けを求めるのがお約束のシリーズを代表するキャラで、赤色や黄色などカラーはさまざま。また、キノじいやキノピオ隊長など固有の名前をもつものもいる。
This translates to
Toad
The inhabitants of the Mushroom Kingdom. Seeking Mario's help when Peach has been kidnapped is a typical characteristic representing this series [of characters], and they come in various colors such as red and yellow. Also, there are some who have unique names, such as Toadsworth, Captain Toad, and the like."

Basically he's literally just another member of the species like Toadsworth is, a very good example. Now, if you want one who at least is the same person(I'd say clearly, but is... it really clear? Though at least Toad is both a name and a species anyway), you do have Toadette, as they've done nothing to suggest she's different from Captain Toadette. There's no statements to separate them and she was an easy option for another playable character. The director, who I linked to above, doesn't bother to actually speak on her, so she's probably just there to help another Toad at that point.

To further the above example, Toadsworth also has Kinopio in his name in some languages. In one case, it's Maestro Kinopio. Now keeping in mind that Toad is officially also called Kinopio, and Captain Toad is called Kinopio Taicho, it gives a good idea that the word Kinopio clearly has been used as a designation. It's basically like Bowser and Bowser Jr. at this point when it comes to different names. Or in the case of Japanese, Koopa and Koopa Jr. So the names are rather consistent. Even Toadette is a spin-off of the name Kinopio, being Kinopiko, basically being combined with the word Ko, meaning child. Captain Toad's own brigade is also similar, being called Kinopio Tankentai, meaning Toad Expedition Team. The problem is they try to reuse the names often and have failed to make it obvious to people that despite clearly being a variation on the character's personality, they're different people. They didn't actually separate them like Mario and Metal Mario are now either, and the latter started as a power-up who gained his own identity first in Smash Bros., and only loosely. Here's one more quick example too; Kōkogakusha Kinopio which means Archaeologist Toad, who only appears in The Origami King. He has nothing to do with the main Toad and shares a naming scheme too. He's known as Professor Toad in the US. They just use the name too interchangeably for the species and characters of the species. That happens too often.

dont forget toad captain and captain t. oed

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day will end in an hour.

 

[Sid-cada]

Captain Toad

Chance - 2.5% - Captain Toad was introduced as a series of side-levels, then got his own game which was ported over to the Switch. Outside of that, however, Captain Toad hasn't been supper important in terms of Mario as a whole. Captain Toad kinda suffers from being a newer request, only coming out of desperation because regular ol' Toad is seen as impossible due to Peach keeping him hostage. Compared to the likes of Waluigi and Paper Mario, his fan base lacks traction compared to these longer-standing requests. Combined with his questionable problem of not being able to jump (I don't, but who knows what Sakurai thinks), Captain Toad has a big mountain to climb.

Want - 80% - As a Bandanna Dee supporter, I would find it somewhat hypocritical if I didn't also support a Toad in some form.


Paper Mario

Chance - 6.5% - The Paper Mario series has been kept alive though games that have been released after Sticker Star. The games, however, haven't been able to have nearly as good a reputation as the old ones due to completely reinventing the wheel when it comes to game-play, in a direction that seems to make the series worse. His games haven't made nearly as much buzz as they could, but fans still have made their desire for the older style loud and clear. He has a leg up on Captain Toad, that for sure, but I don't think he has quite what it takes.

Want - 50% - I've varried my want on him over the years. Overall, I think it will come down to move set on him.


Nominations

Monster Hunter X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Today we have two characters I hold near and dear to my heart, Crash Bandicoot and Spyro the Dragon. Rate these two in chance and want. Predict the scores for Master Chief and Kratos for tomorrow.


Crash Bandicoot

90% Chance

Yeah, this is one of the only three characters I feel comfortable rating above a 90%. The other two you will see in the fixed schedule.

Let me just start off by saying that Crash has a solid legacy to get into smash already. In the cultural zeitgeist, he is the Sony mascot, even if they never owned him. The fact of the matter is the Naughty Dog games are ingrained in the perception of the PS1 and Sony as a whole. Crash 1, 2, Warped, and CTR all helped cement Sony's place in the console industry. Part of what makes him so much more likely than any other western character IMO is the fact that Crash is pretty dang popular in Japan. Sony pushed him hard there in the PS1 era, and Activision continued that effort in the modern era. Now, before anyone says that the PS1 does not matter, you are kind of wrong. The PS1 had a huge cultural impact on gaming as a whole. Just look at its sales. The PS1 sold over 100 million units worldwide. Only other home systems to take that crown were the PS2 (which while good sold really well early on due to being the worlds cheapest DVD player at the time) and the PS4 now. Not even the casual success that was the Wii outdid the PS1. That is saying something at the very least. Crash did quite well for himself on the PS1. The PS1 crash games totaled together sold over 21,790,000 units.

Now this would be good but far from a strong case if Crash was not doing anything now. If the Crash franchise stayed dormant, then this would not matter. But Crash is back in a big way. Putting aside the hype that Crash 4 is generating, the sales of N Sane and Nitro Fueled both are strong. N Sane according to activision last year sold over ten million copies, making it the best selling Crash game of all time. Nitro Fueled's sales have not been official, but estimates are over 6 million. It is safe to say that Crash is back in a very big way right now. It also helps that Crash does have a presence on Nintendo platforms now that is far stronger than before, with N Sane and Nitro Fueled both being on the Switch. While Its About Time has not been announced for Switch yet, a port seems very likely given this scenario happened to Reignited as well.

Crash also has seen his popularity for Smash skyrocket in the past few years ala N Sane. It is worth noting that popularity with the Smash fanbase is hit or miss. Some characters that are vastly popular have taken a long time to get into Smash, such as K Rool, Ridley, and Banjo. But Crash is regularly topping fan polls. The Source gaming poll, which is one of the biggest of these, found Crash now as overall the single most wanted character, even over Geno. At this point, it is clear Crash will keep gaining popularity among the Smash fanbase. While Nintendo does not actively head the Smash fanbase when it comes to decision making, it is clear they are at least partially aware of it. There is a reason Banjo made it in as DLC after all. They also at the very least know what is popular among the gaming public as a whole when it comes to DLC. I find it hard to believe Nintendo would not look at Crash or at the very least put him on the shortlist to consider.

The only counter arguments that comes to mind are that Western characters are not too viable and that Activision Blizzard bad. Let me tackle the latter first since it is way more ridiculous. While it is true that AB has done some crappy things, I doubt that would stop Nintendo from doing business with AB. The company that now owns SNK is run by a member of the Chinese Communist Party. Konami has been outed for their awful work conditions. Nintendo clearly does not see any negative thoughts around a company as an issue. Nintendo and Activision also have a close relationship. Activision has supported every Nintendo console with games. Heck, Nintendo even let them use DK and Bowser in Skylanders. Now for the former argument. Saying Smash does have a strong Japanese bias is not wrong. Only one Western third party has made it in, and only 3 non Japanese designed characters have made it in so far. That being said, the genie is out of the bottle here with Banjo. Banjo kind of breaks this rule in a big way. It also helps that Crash, unlike other western heavy characters like Doomguy, is very popular in Japan as well.

Overall, we have a character with a strong resume that is clearly doing really well right now both commercially and with fans. I feel very confident in this one.

100% Want

Look at my current avatar, I clearly love the guy. The Crash games are stellar. Fun, challenging platforming. Well designed characters. Awesome music. You name it. I also have the Crash fanbase near and dear to my heart. I have plenty of great memories playing these games on the ps1, ps3, the psp, the vita, and with the remakes. Even the post ND games have some gems, like the GBA games and Twinsanity.

Though, there is another reason I really want Crash...

Spyro the Dragon

15% Chance

The only way I see this happening is if Activision decides to cut a deal while getting Crash into smash to push Spyro abroad. Unlike Crash Spyro does not have the same legacy of appeal overseas, the first two games bombed in Japan leading to YotD not getting a port until Reignited. The two franchises are bound at the hip in a unique way with the demos and remakes.

Spyro is a PS1 icon, but not on Crash's level. A little over 11.5 million units on the PS1 is nothing to sneeze at, although YotD was a pack in at one point. Skylanders, as much as I may dislike it, also did keep Spyro in the cultural zeitgeist. While we do not have sales figures on Reignited, it did sell well and hit many top ten sales charts (even topping the UK).

That being said, I am not completely biased. Spyro is not getting in before Crash. Period. Crash is the bigger deal, simple as that. He's more popular for smash and has sold better.

100% Want

Part of why I want Crash so bad is that it opens the door to this, my endgame. My single most wanted character period.

Spyro was my first game ever. Period. I played the demo disk of spyro so much my parents bought me the games at Blockbuster. My childhood was not the best, but I always had two main outlets for my early years. The first was my dog, whose still going strong at 14 and a half years. The other was the Spyro games. I would play them after a rough day in school or at home, and beating all three was one of the greatest achievements in my younger years.

I still replay the spyro games regularly. I have gotten good at rushing through the games due to how much I played them. I usually play through the OT at least once a year.

Reignited came out at a perfect time for me. The announcement was during college, which as some of you know I struggled in emotionally. While I was in a much better mental state than my freshman year, I was not doing great. I failed a test and was in danger of failing a class, but I managed to scrape by and pass it with a C. The day I failed that test, I got the notification of Reignited getting revealed at PAX east. The fact that I was able to see one of my favorite franchises get remastered brought me to tears. Now, Reignited ain't flawless, I prefer some of the original npc voice acting and the enemies are not as cute, but I love it and my experience with it. I double dipped and bought it on the Switch and PS4 so I can play it even if I am not home. I currently am in the middle of a playthrough of YotD.

Seeing Spyro in smash would mean so much to me. It would be seeing my childhood icon in the greatest celebration of gaming.

Boss Rush x 5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Crash Banoca

Chance: 65%

Nintendo history? Check
Popular and requested in both the East and West? Check
Good moveset potential? Check
Relevancy? Check
Is owned by a cooperative company that has worked with Nintendo on numerous occasions? Check
Fits with Smash? Check

Crash fills every box here. He is iconic, has officially made a comeback, and is a perfect fit for Smash. I would be surprised if he wasn't in this pass. He is one of the great platformer mascots, up there with Mario and Sonic. He is a western character but he is one of the handful of western characters that I can see having a realistic shot.

Want: 100%

I love Crash Bandicoot! I grew up with this bandicoot watching lets plays of the original trilogy and Crash Bash due to not having the means to play them until the N Sane Trilogy came out which I got it day one and loved it. I played all of the three major racing games extensively throughout my life. This guy is a big part of the gaming industry with his rivalry with Mario and Sonic and seeing him fight them and other gaming legends in the greatest crossover of all time would make me lose it. I also love the music and am curious to see what remixes they would do in addition to all the great songs they can choose from. I really do think he should be in the game now. He has a big dedicated fanbase and the casual audience seems to dig him as well. He would be a big crowd pleaser and one of the hypest characters to get into Smash. He means a lot to the industry and to a lot of people.

Please let this happen Sakurai and Nintendo.

_________________

Spyro

Chance: 5%

I hate to give him this score but the circumstances right now are not in his favor. It's bad enough that his games didn't do so well in Japan (judging from research, Year of the Dragon didn't even come out in Japan at all), but it's another thing that he is owned by the same company that owns Crash. That alone flattens his chances as it's unlikely Sakurai would choose both Crash and Spyro with them both being PS1 cartoon platforming mascots. There is honestly not a lot to say. Unfortunately Crash pretty much kills his chances, even with Spyro having his own trilogy remade.

Want: 70%

I do have some memories with Spyro. I think I played one of the original PS1 games a long tie ago. I can't remember which one it was. All I know is that the graphics and art style makes me feel nostalgic. About 5 years ago I got the first Spyro game from the PS3 online store and I beat most of the game and got over half of the collectibles. Finally I got the Reignited Trilogy last year and....I'm still on the first game and not even at the point where I was on the PS3 version.

Dear god help me with my backlog.

But anyway, I really enjoy his games and I think Spyro is a fun and charming character. His games have this unique charm to them and the stage and music selection would be like nothing else. Plus is he a quadruped which we could use more of in Smash. He is also a dragon which is awesome and would play very differently with his flight and all the tricks hes learned throughout the games. The only thing holding back this score is that I would be a little upset if he got in over Crash. But I am not holding that against Spyro too much because he is great in his own merits.


Predictions:
Master Chief - 18%
Kratos - 4%

Noms: Ezio x5

 

[Perkilator]

IT'S CASH BANOOCA

Chance: 90%
This isn't me being biased towards the orange marsupial. With the success of the N. Sane Trilogy and CTR Nitro-Fueled, it seems like Crash has been in the best spot for Smash that he's been in years (especially what with Crash 4 coming out in October).

Want: 100 Wumpa Fruits %
YES YES YES. I adored the N. Sane Trilogy and Crash has moveset potential from those three games alone. That, and I wanna see him finally duke it out with his fellow console competitors, and .

Abstain on Spyro. I mainly just wanted an excuse to gush about Cash Banooca.

Master Chief: 20%
Kratos: 0%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×2
Sakura Shinguji ×3

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Nightmare
21.00% Chance - 61.04% Want
Last time we rated him he got 18.74% chance and 57.27% want. Little growth in both scores, probably can be attributed to Heihachi's disconfirmation.
Winners of predictions were NintenRob and Jomosensual with a precise 20.00%

Sol Badguy
24.26% Chance - 63.33% Want
First time we rated him he got 28.25% chance and 50.43% want. Last time we rated him he got 31.00% chance and 51.18% want. Those were the pre- and post-Byleth scores, and honestly I can't see a pattern. Maybe some see him as redundant now that we've gotten a fighting game character? And I've no clue about the surge in want. He got really few scores this time, like a super low number, so it may just be math stuff skewing the results.
Winner of predictions was DrifloonEmpire with 21.68%

Sylux
8.85% Chance - 28.86% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 8.65%

Porky
9.75% Chance - 52.56% Want
Last time we rated him he got 10.45% chance and 61.24% want. Interestingly, chance is around the same but want took a dive. Would have expected the opposite, but I guess his absent Spirit didn't play much of a role on your estimate of his chances back then either (that was before we'd seen Joker gameplay). Of note, many mentioned that they don't want any more Mother content in Smash; this is a new line of thinking, and it explains the tumble in want, but it's an interesting wrinkle nonetheless as a Mother fan.
Winner of predictions was Icedragonadam with 9.66%

Extra nominations are as follows

Artix 15
Awakining 5
Calamitas 20
DaUsername 92
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
Icedragonadam 5
Jomosensual 5
NintenRob 15
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 5
SKX31 5
Ramen Tengoku 10
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 5

 

[SharkLord]

Crash Bandicoot:
Chance: 75%. Crash is popular with diehards and casuals alike, and he's left quite an impact. While I don't think the poll was definite proof of Crash being the most popular, it still shows that he's quite popular on his own. I'd say he's pretty likely.

I detract points for a couple reasons. For one, as a Western character there might be some issues with the language barrier and all that. While this obviously doesn't discount Western reps completely, as Banjo has proven, it might limit the amount we'll actually get. I predict about one or two Western characters, maybe three if we're really really pushing it. Crash might have some competition, and that brings his chances down a little.

The other reason is that I just have a hard time rating anybody above 80%. Smash is just too unpredictable for me to put anyone that high. If we do that, we'll get blindsided with a major curveball. also maybe because i dont know crash too well

Want: 50%. He'd be cool, but I don't think of him too much. My focus lies elsewhere. Still, I'd probably enjoy Crash pretty well.

Spyro:
Chance: 40%. We might be proven wrong, but Crash is the most likely Activision rep. Spyro's a PS1 icon and a popular request, but Crash is all that but moreso. Crash'll probably act as a major roadblock for Spyro.
Want: 55%. Like Crash, he's cool and I'm a little familiar with him, but I'm focused on other characters. Still, if he represents the entire series and not just the classic games, it would be nice to see the Skylanders remembered again. That'd bring back some memories.

Predictions:
Master Chief: 53.71%
Kratos: 10%

Nomination: Klonoa x5

 

[Sari]

Some songs for today's characters:

Crash

Spoiler: Crash Music

Spyro

Spoiler: Spyro Music

 

[GoodGrief741]

The Australian Devil

Chance: 20%
I don't think Crash is likely anymore. I'm probably gonna be the outlier on this one, but it's a hill I'm willing to die on.

On the surface, Crash has all that a Smash character can want. He's iconic, popular and demanded by fans and casuals alike, super influential, has a long history and a special connection to Nintendo, he's a sales and critical success, he's relevant, popular worldwide, and is the clear frontrunner for his company. Aside from being Western in origin, nothing with him is an obstacle to his inclusion.

But Crash 4 got announced, for PlayStation, Xbox, and... Not the Switch. What? It doesn't make sense. Crash 4 can't be so graphically intensive that the Switch can't play it. And, hell, the Switch is probably the console where Crash games are bound to do best, it's the only console with a sizeable platformer audience. And yet, nothing.

That, to me, speaks volumes. Activision always kind of half-assed their Nintendo efforts. Like EA, they're late-arriving fair-weather friends, they only show up if and when a console has success, and they don't even know the audience enough to capitalize on it properly. But this time around it looked more promising. Sure, we were never going to get annual Call of Duty entries on the Switch, but with Crash being especially suited for the Switch and Overwatch 2 also being in development for it, it looked like the two companies were in a better spot than ever. But, they're making Crash 4 and not putting in on the Switch. A huge role in Smash DLC is corporate synergy. Companies and series that Nintendo has a good relationship with are rewarded. If the link to Activision is weak enough that they aren't putting their platformer on the Switch from the get-go, I can't see Nintendo returning any favors by asking for Crash in Smash.

Ultimately, I think we all drank the kool-aid with Crash. At the end of the day he's not really the kind of character that we got on Fighter Pass 1. He's too big a deal, too hype, too obvious. We spent over a year expecting huge S-tier third party franchises but all we got to show for it were smaller franchises save for Dragon Quest.

The silver lining is that Crash will for sure stick around in speculation and will probably still be a big demand come Smash 6. But all the hubbub about him being FP7 gives me big "FP5 is totally Dante" vibes.

Want: 100%
This doesn't mean he doesn't deserve it, or that I don't want him. Crash is a legend, he should be in the gaming pantheon.

Dracarys!

Chance: 0%
He isn't getting in before Crash, that's, like, one of the universal truths. I'm curious, though, does anyone know how the Reignited Trilogy was received in Japan? That could definitely mean stuff for his future.

Want: 90%
He's still a legend, doesn't matter how Japan feels about him. Though, again, I don't want him before Crash.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Master Chief prediction: 28.90%
Kratos prediction: 2.50%

 

[jamesster445]

Spyro
Chance: 10%
Want: 30%

Crash
Chance: 40%
Want: 50%

I think Crash is more likely in this case just because of the overall fan demand. And unlike Spyro, it's clear Activision actually wants to do something with the series beyond pandering to nostalgia with Crash 4. In addition to having a lot more fan demand as he's considered Playstation's Sonic and a rival to Mario. I'm not too different in this case, as if I had to choose between the two I'd pick Crash even if he's not my most wanted character from Activision. (Is it wrong that I almost rather have a hole in the teeth Crash Bandicoot mii costume more than Crash himself?)

However one thing I have to wonder is the current relationship between Nintendo and Activision. The last time they collaborated was for Overwatch on Switch specifically a launch event olin New York. And those plans were scrapped after a well known and well documented controversy. So I dont know where Nintendo and Activision stand at this moment. And that is probably the biggest obstacle for Crash at this moment.

Nominations: Jin Kazama

 

[Swamp Sensei]

And, hell, the Switch is probably the console where Crash games are bound to do best,

I'm just gonna do one hard disagree here.

Crash used to be the mascot for Playstation.

They sell best there.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm just gonna do one hard disagree here.

Crash used to be the mascot for Playstation.

They sell best there.

Back in the day, sure, but nowadays I can't see the PlayStation audience being that into platformers. Their selling point is more third-person story-based adventure games since the last generation.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Australian Devil
But Crash 4 got announced, for PlayStation, Xbox, and... Not the Switch. What? It doesn't make sense. Crash 4 can't be so graphically intensive that the Switch can't play it. And, hell, the Switch is probably the console where Crash games are bound to do best, it's the only console with a sizeable platformer audience. And yet, nothing.

While Its About Time is coming later than expected to the Switch, it is important to note that this happen with both Reignited and N Sane Trilogy. Part of this is due to needing to downgrade textures enough to make sure that the game still runs well. It is all about optimizing so that in handheld the game does not chug. Having played both on PS4 and Switch, there is still a bit of frameloss in handheld but it is doable. This is the likely reason so far.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Back in the day, sure, but nowadays I can't see the PlayStation audience being that into platformers. Their selling point is more third-person story-based adventure games since the last generation.

No, they still sell better on Playstation.

They pretty much always have.

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Hello all. I decided to stop in since I'd like to comment on Crash and his chances.

Crash

Chance: 15%

I'm largely going to go against the popular sentiment here (you're not alone GoodGrief741 )

To be completely honest, I find Crash's chances largely overrated by the core Smash community. His fan demand has only recently picked up, and seems to be more of a fad similar to Doomguy or Skull Kid. Remember the one or two months they were actually popular? Me neither.

Activision doesn't have as strong ties to Nintendo as other companies, and despite their large support of the Wii and Wii U with the Skylanders series, their support of the Switch has largely waned, with multiplatform Crash games being their only significant offerings (even the Call of Duty series got ported to Wii and Wii U, even if the ports were bad). Furthermore, being a Western company complicates the negotiation process, and Sakurai/Nintendo generally seem hesitant to go for Western characters unless significant, K. Rool/Ridley/Banjo levels of fan demand exists.

While he would certainly be a significant edition, representing the large rivalry between Playstation and Nintendo in the 5th-6th console generations, I don't see what makes him more likely than any other popular character from a Japanese company (of which there are many)

Want: 33%

He'd be cool, and I'd certainly appreciate seeing the early Playstation and Nintendo rivalry in Smash, but I wouldn't be too excited over his addition. I'd just say "okay, that's pretty cool," and go about my day after watching his trailer.

Spyro

Chance: 0%

If Crash is unlikely, then Spyro is impossible, largely for the same reasons, except no fan demand exists for him like it does for Crash.

Want: 0%

I have no attachment to the Spyro series, and would be more confused as to how an old, Playstation dominant series riding on little more than nostalgia made it into Smash over literally anyone else.

Nominations
Pepsi Man x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

While Its About Time is coming later than expected to the Switch, it is important to note that this happen with both Reignited and N Sane Trilogy. Part of this is due to needing to downgrade textures enough to make sure that the game still runs well. It is all about optimizing so that in handheld the game does not chug. Having played both on PS4 and Switch, there is still a bit of frameloss in handheld but it is doable. This is the likely reason so far.

If that were the plan, there's no reason for them not to have announced it yet. Hell, announcing a game is coming to all three consoles, with the Switch release date being TBD, is pretty much industry standard at some point.

I've no doubt Crash 4 is eventually coming to Nintendo, but them being an afterthought already spells bad things for Activision and Nintendo's standing.

No, they still sell better on Playstation.

They pretty much always have.

Well, there's no way to prove it either way cause the only games to release simultaneously on PlayStation and Nintendo are Crash of the Titans and Mind over Mutant, and I can't find sales numbers for those. But I don't doubt that Crash 4, released day-and-date on Switch and PS4, sells better on Switch.

 

[SKX31]

Crashing the Party?

Chance: 30 %

Crash is a very interesting - and important - character by any account. Any character who's ever had a solid claim to being a "Platform Mascot" (And "Rival to " - even if indirectly in some cases) can attest to that because it's an exclusive club:

• Sonic
• Crash
• Master Chief
• Kratos

Crash's status is very much tied to his early success, when he had that claim. His relatively recent ressurection in the N-Sane Trilogy and CTR ties back to this, and not just as a return to form. That status is incredibly enticing by itself - especially since he now has a sizeable Nintendo presence. In a very stark contrast to Master Chief and Kratos, the other two mascots not yet in the series.

That said, his popularity is not to be taken lightly either - he was certainly in the video game spotlight, even during his years in the doldrums. That does give further credence to the character - like Sonic, Crash lived on despite the major stumbles.

One potential hindrance is Activision - that is, how much they'll ask for Crash's potential package. While PlayStation All-Stars was in a completely different situation than Ultimate is currently, Activision still asked for too much for SuperBot to stomach. Sakurai has much much more clout than SuperBot and PSASBR ever had, and this was 8 years ago. That's true, but unless that has changed it could be a hurdle. Not an insurmountable hurdle, but still one that could prove to be a major hassle. Especially for Sakurai, who's been very cautious re: Western developers - and might still be. During the past 13 or so months B-K, Cuphead, Sans, Altair and Vault Boy have joined the game in some capacity, so there could be some change there. But it could also be that the Japanese preference will continue.

Want: 60 %

Perfectly fine with Crash! Not exactly amongst my top wants, but I won't complain.

Spyr-Oh, here comes the competition.

Chance: 10 %

Spyro feels to me like he both A) got an excellent start and built on it, B) Got some help from Crash's popularity and status, and C) Is somewhat held back by being "Crash's little brother" unofficially. He might be overshadowed, but still has a shot thanks to being a quadruped and thus having several unique aspects to him.

Then again, the infamous Japanese dub does hold him back. While I personally have never believed that Japan is the be-all-end-all epicentre when it comes to Smash selections, it still has a massive importance due to being Nintendo's own heartland. As such, Spyro will be more reliant on Sakurai taking an interest in the character himself - which is far, far from a guarantee.

Want: 55 %

Again, perfectly fine with the character.

Noms: Rocket League rep x5

Preds: Master Chief 21 %
Kratos: 0.5 %

 

[amageish]

Spoiler: Comment about Sol's Ratings

First time we rated him he got 28.25% chance and 50.43% want. Last time we rated him he got 31.00% chance and 51.18% want. Those were the pre- and post-Byleth scores, and honestly I can't see a pattern. Maybe some see him as redundant now that we've gotten a fighting game character? And I've no clue about the surge in want. He got really few scores this time, like a super low number, so it may just be math stuff skewing the results.

I'm guessing the River City Spirit event boosted him post-Byleth? Then now Min Min being first-party maybe made people more pessimistic on third-party spirit events having significance? Idk.

Anyway, I shall join in on team pessimist!

Crash

Chance: 12%. In general, I would be pessimistic about western characters - or at least more pessimistic then most people here are being thus far. Discussions about Banjo all felt very "Everything lined up perfectly for us to be able to pull this off!" and I'm not convinced the stars are aligning for it to happen again. Skyalnders/Amiibo crossovers and Ganon in Diablo 3 are good precedents for Activision-Blizzard collabs, but I don't feel those are quite at the level of the other companies in Smash. Sure, Persona 5 isn't in Switch, but ATLUS overall has such a long and dedicated history to Nintendo that they made an exclusive for the friggin' Virtual Boy. Crash has the legacy and the relevancy, but I hesitate to call him a frontrunner pragmatically...

Want: Abstain. He'd be great for recreating PlayStation versus Nintendo versus Sega wars. I get why people really like him; I just am not all that attached myself.

Spyro

Chance: 2%. Copy-paste what I said about Crash, but without the "legacy and relevancy" comment. Spyro is always in Crash's shadow, sadly, which isn't a great place to be when they're owned by the same company.

Want: Abstain.

Noms: Moogle x 5
Predictions: Master Chief = 40% / Kratos = 20%. That'll be a weird day...

 

[Lyncario]

The one who saved himself from Crashing into irelevance
Chance: 33%
A very high rating by my standard. and I have good reasons. Crash is very iconic and has a lot of fan request since Ultimate's reveal, and said request could have had big effects on choosing this fighter pass. He also has more than enough moveset potential, which is not just spinning. Crash also was popular in Japan originaly, and while the Insane Trilogy was not that popular there, Japan was still where Crash had the most of his request before Ultimate. And while Activision Blizzard is hard to work with and controversial, it did not stop Nintendo to get Snake, Simon, and Richter, all 3 being Konami reps, a company who as it's worst is on the same level of controversy that Activision Blizzard is right now. The biggest blow to his chances is that he's a western character, but not only did it not stop Banjo, he's popular in Japan. Crash has basicaly everything a potential Smash rep could ask for, execpt for nationality, but while it's a problem, it's not too big of a problem.
Want: 90%
Most of what I said in the chance section apply here. While unlike probably a lot of you I did not discover Crash with his original trilogy on Playstation, I discovered him with the tian game on the ds that I liked quite a lot when I was younger, so he was still a part of my childood, even if it was small. I also played and liked the Insane Trilogy on the Switch a lot, so more cookie points for him.

And the one who has been one step behind Crash for his entire life
Chance: 0.1%
Spyro, however, has very bad chances. Why? Well, the version of Spyro that was localized for Japan was butchered in it's entirity, to the point whre it was almost unplayable, and so Spyro was not popular in Japan, unlike Crash. Furthermore, Spyro was always one step behind Crash for almost everything, and if he joins Smash, it would be after Crash, who also has almost all of the fan demand for an Activision Blizzard character. So yeah, Spyro's chances are almost non-existant.
Want: 55%
Spyro is a purple dragon, and that's enough for him to get already above neutral rating from me. Furthermore, he has good moveset potential, meaning that he would be cool to play has, and he has some really cool levels to get a stage along with great music. But I'm also not really big on his series, so he does not get above that from me.

Nominations
5 for an SMT rep

Predictions
His name always reminds me of the "Master Chef" tv show: 51.4%
"Yes, let's ignore all of the depth and development he has in his first 3 games to pretend that we made him a deep character offscreen, no one will notice the thousands problems it creares naratively, we're very smart writers, just like the guys who wrote the script for Sonic Colors"-sorry, I got a bit lost in my GoW 2018 rant: 0.9%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Captain Toad/Paper Mario pre-Crash Bandicoot/Spyro the Dragon

Concept: A person of color x185
Tidus x160
Moogle x155
Nate Adams x140
Alex Mason x125
Shuichi Saihara x121
The Stretchers x120

150 - 101

Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x116
D.Va x115
Zelda (BotW sequel) x110
Red (Angry Birds) x110
[Rerate] Ezio x110
[Rerate] Frisk x105
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume x105

100 - 51

Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x80
Fulgore x79
Proto Man x75
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x70
Echo: Xion (Sora) x70
Billy Hatcher x70
Boss: Ender Dragon x68
Sakura Shinguji x65
The Terrarian x60
Riptor x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x50
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x45
Giygas x45
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (Bowser) x44
Concept: Deltarune content x42
Austin the Butler (Gardenscapes) x40
Gooigi x40
Klonoa x40
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (King K. Rool) x39
Stage: Bowser's Castle x38
The Bard (Wandersong) x35
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x35
Concept: Rocket League rep x35
Concept: Returning stages x31
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x30
Urbosa x30
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x30
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Concept: Dark Souls rep x25
Magolor x25
[Rerate] Maxwell x25
[Rerate] Monokuma x25

Under 25

Jin Sakai x20
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x20
Yoshimitsu x20
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Wolf Link x15
Concept: FP2 character comes with an Echo Fighter x15
Lora and Jin x15
Hades (Kid Icarus) x15
Dr. Goomba Tower x15
Boss: Rayquaza x14
Taranza x11
Gran/Djeeta x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x10
Medusa (Kid Icarus) x10
Cynthia x10
John Marston x10
Chell x8
Mii Costume: Jacket x7
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Echo (Olimar) x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Cooking Mama x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: No AT promotions x5
[Rerate] Morrigan Aensland x5
[Rerate] Cadence x5
Octoling x5
Kazuya Mishima x5
Excitebiker x5
Zero (Mega Man) x5
Concept: Rhythm Heaven rep x5
Amiya (Arknights) x5
Gil (Babylonian Castle Saga/The Tower of Druaga) x5
Vi (Bug Fables) x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2

Shuichi Saihara passes Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content and The Stretchers. Shuichi ends the day in sixth place, the Stretchers in seventh, and PMD content is out of the top seven.

Frisk and Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume break through the 100 nom barrier.

Riptor rips past 50 noms.

Today's newcomer is Vi, with 5 noms.

I'm guessing the River City Spirit event boosted him post-Byleth? Then now Min Min being first-party maybe made people more pessimistic on third-party spirit events having significance? Idk.

That could be it. Didn't know when the Kunio Spirit Event happened so I had no way to know if it could have affected the scores.

And I didn't know Ganon's in Diablo III, that sounds rad.

 

[BowserKing]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 50%. Crash has a lot of things going for him. First of all, there ia anew game coming out in the near future. Second of all, there is his popularity that is still as strong as ever. Third of all is the potential. Overall, Crash is either entering this game or he isn’t, but either way, he is one of the most likely characters to be in this game.

Want: 90%. He would totally be a fun character to play as. Plus there is a lot of potential of opponents for him to fight against. Also if he gets in, his inclusion would open the door more even more characters to enter smash bros. Overall, Crashes inclusion would totally be hype worthy.

Spyro: Chance: 15%. Crash is way more likely to appear then Spyro, but it is not impossible however. But if CRash does get in, his chance would skyrocket by more then twice the chance.

Want: 65%. While I’d prefer it if Crash got in first, Spyro would still be a fun character to play as. He also has enough moveset and opponent potential as well. Overall, Spyro would be an underdog choice of a fun rep.

Prediction: Master Chief (15%) and Kratos (10%)

Noms: 3 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 2 for Gyigas

 

[NintenRob]

Two franchises I still need to play

Crash Bandicoot
Chance 30%
I'm gonna echo GoodGriefs sentiments, while a popular requests, Activision doesn't feel like the sort to play ball easily. But I don't feel as strongly as that, it's hard to imagine any company saying no to Smash, but you also got to give good reasons for Nintendo to deal with that sort of bull****
Want 70%
I've played the majority of the first game on Switch, but I never committed to all of it, it just fell to my backlog, and I really want to finish it and the rest of the game. Plus him being an Australian marsupial is nice bonus points
AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE OI OI OI

Spyro the Dragon
Chance 0%
There's no way he's getting in before Crash and there's no way we're getting two Activision characters. Plus not being anywhere near as successful in Japan doesn't help matters. I consider Japan popularity essential for Third Party characters.
Want 50%
I don't own this one, but it's one I really want to play it. I love a good 3D platformer and Spyro looks really fun

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5

Prediction
Master Chief 12%
Kratos 0.5%

 

[amageish]

That could be it. Didn't know when the Kunio Spirit Event happened so I had no way to know if it could have affected the scores.

And I didn't know Ganon's in Diablo III, that sounds rad.

It was the week after Byleth's release, so I think it was fresh on the minds of people...

It's technically just his armour, but it makes the player look just like him so I'm counting it.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I can't quite put a number on their chances, honestly. The idea of "western third-parties" is still fairly new, and I'd rather wait and see how it pans out. However, I can somewhat understand why so many people think Crash is likely.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Abstaining on STD today.

El Giros.

Chance: 50%

Like Steve, he's the most likely guest not called Hayabusa in Smash. Crash, like Steve is probably one of the few "western" (specifically American in this case) video game characters whose franchise actually managed to get a following in Japan, thanks to Sony's marketing at the time. While he has fallen off the wayside over there in popularity (ESPECIALLY compared to Steve), he is still a major gaming icon in the rest of the world who has recovered thanks to the remasters of his PS1 games (minus Crash Bash) and even is getting a brand new game following the classic formula!

"bb-b-b-b-BUT IT'S NOT COMING ON SWITCH!"...................and? Persona's mainline games will never come to a Nintendo game and we still got Ren. No don't give me the Q2 bull**** excuse, because Crash's Main games (the original ones that made him the star he is) are on the Switch, again, thanks to the remasters. Also let's face it, Crash 4 will come to the Switch. It will just take a few months to be announced (probably next year assuming 2020 doesn't get worse)

Honestly i can't give any argument against him. Not Nintendo centric? That honestly was never an issue (it's just a fan-rule that never a had a leg to stand on, but i understand why people would want it to be that way, i would rather have Bomberman and Layton over Joker and Cloud) Remember the third party ever shown wasn't Mega Man or Banjo or even Pac-Man, it was SNAKE. Then we got Cloud and Joker. Dead Franchise? Was revived thanks to the N.Sane Trilogy, and the likes of Banjo got in anyway? Non-Japanese Third Party? again, Banjo.

Also, like Sonic, after the 6th generation he started to become a multi-platform mascot with 2 brand exclusive GBA games that were very faithful to his previous adventures (and probably are better than Wrath........) so he really stopped being a Sony Mascot after the PS2 era. Crash has given more support on Nintendo consoles than some of the Guests already in Smash or even some that people proclaim that should be in Smash.

It should also be mentioned that Crash's support in Smash was nonexistent in Brawl or Smash 4, but started to become a thing in Ultimate. Namely due the Crash N. Sane Trilogy Switch port beign announced in the Same Direct as Smash Ultimate (back then not titled). While his support and outcry likely did not affect the development process of the base game nor even Fighter Pass 1, it COULD make a difference for Fighter Pass 2. I wouldn't be surprised if Activision took note of this and went for Nintendo to negotiate for Crash in Smash to get at least SOME positive PR out of this, which is probably one of the reasons why Microsoft even bothered to give Banjo to Sakurai, i don't think we would have gotten Banjo in Smash if that Tweet to Phil Spencer never happened, and the reaction was extremely positive attention for Microsoft too (especially the shoutout Sakurai gave to the Xbox One in Japan) seeing how Activison is getting his ass handed as early as the Skylander Days, giving Sakurai the opportunity to use Crash would be a surefire to get some positive attention for once.

The only reason that i think Crash would not get in, is that Sakurai usually doesn't work with Foreign Companies. It's not that Sakurai hates American Gaming or non-japanese gaming as a whole (if anything he is one of the more open "westaboo" gamers out there) but rather working with a non-japanese company is not the norm for him (language and cultural barriers and ****) so it may make it difficult.

Want: 100%

I usually DO have a bias towards Third Parties who have a strong brand association with Nintendo, if Not Nintendo characters in general, but you know what my bigger bias is? Childhood.

Back when i was young Chilean Lad, i got a Ps1 with Crash's PSX classic Trilogy. Despite me sucking at it (and never beating them due to not having a memory card), i can't lie and i have to admit, i loved them. I always got my hand on any Crash games no matter how sucky they were. Nitro Kart, WoC, Twinsanity, even that crappy Beat em Up where Crash got Titans and ****. Crash was my childhood. In fact, way back in the days before Smash 4 was even formally annoucned to the public, i used to daydream about what characters could be in Smash. Crash was one of them. As soon as the N.Sane Trilogy was announced i hoped anxiously for it, and got it on Switch on its release day and beat them with the best endings, finally fulfilling the dream i ever so desired. I would later also buy and enjoy Nitro Fueled (before selling it because im an idiot) and for all intents and purposes, my passion for Crash has awaken again. Crash is one of gaming childhood darlings, next to Mega Man. He's the reason i always associate the Square Button with Attack and Cross (not X, Cross) Button with Jump. Even with its not a Playstation Controller i still have this control shceme in my brain. To say Crash left an Impression on me would be an understatement.

That's not to say im a hardcore fan, no. But i hold Crash in my heart, and i never realize it. I have been more passionate about others like Simon, K.Rool, Dixie, Bandana Dee, Waluigi etc. But none of them hold the same impact as Crash did to me. He didn't need Smash to do that, and still doesn't need it.

It's always been like this for me. Im not gonna be so upset if Crash doesn't make it, but i would be really happy to see him. I think he deserves it. His best outings are now avaliable to Nintendo players, platforming mascots still hold a place in the minds of many, and Sonic got to finally fight the mascot he was meant to compete against in Smash after getting games like the Sonic Advance Trilogy, Sonic Rush 1 and 2, Sonic Colors and so on. It's Crash turn now.

Woah indeed.

Noms:
Fighter Pass 2 gets Delayed X5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Crash Bandicoot

Chance: 70% - In terms of circumstances, not much has changed for Crash in terms of his chances. It's About Time was revealed recently, but Crash already had a strong showing on the Switch so relevance was never an issue for Crash. Though one thing that does worry me a bit is that it hasn't been announced for Switch yet. While it will certainly come down the line, adding Xbox in as one of the launch systems shows that it isn't simply an exclusivity deal like N. Sane was. Furthermore, Activision-Blizzard doesn't always seem to have the best relationship with Nintendo, between the cancelled Overwatch event and the fact that n. Sane wasn't even going to get a Switch port until an employee took it home, ported the first stage, and presented it as a proof of concept. Though this same story doesn't seem to have been a thing for Reignited Trilogy, so it probably isn't a problem anymore.

Aside from that, there's the chance that we may get a first party-oriented pass, alongside the usual reduction in chances for being a western character, but we can't predict Nintendo's patterns (for better or for worse). Still, despite this, Crash has:

- Massive fan demand (topping popularity polls and surpassing major longtime fan requests like Geno)
- Popularity in Japan
- Cultural zeitgeist
- Major mascot character in the 90's, with an extremely successful revival
- N. Sane Trilogy is the best selling Crash game to date.
- Plenty of Nintendo history

Crash basically has it all at this point! Furthermore, Nintendo and Activision have still worked together on many occasions, even bringing Bowser and DK to Skylanders (even bringing Amiibo/Skylander hybrids). Furthermore, their work with SNK (mainly the owner), Tencent, and Konami shows that the controversies surrounding the company wouldn't deter Nintendo from working with them. The only major obstacle I can see is the price for licensing Crash, but being a pass seller would more than make up for the cost of the license. Both Nintendo and Sakurai would see Crash as an appealing pick, and all of this together makes Crash by far the most likely western third party character.

Want: 100% - While I didn't grow up with a PS1, Crash still played a role in my childhood. One of my first video games was The Huge Adventure on the GBA, and it was a game I replayed many times growing up. N. Sane Trilogy allowed me to rediscover Crash and explore his past, and all of it has been a fantastic experience (Time Trial frustrations notwithstanding). I even enjoyed Wrath of Cortex despite its' issues and I think a remake would certainly help it as well! Crash has risen to being one of my favorite franchises and I'd love to see him honored with a spot in Smash!


Spyro the Dragon

Chance: 5% - Spyro is iconic in his own right, but nothing has really changed for his circumstances since his previous rating, and he still has a lot of issues facing his inclusion. Despite being heavily connected to Crash, both in the early days and post revival, Spyro was always the little brother of the two franchises. His lack of success in Japan (albeit for an extremely unfair reason) is the big deterrent, to the point where Year of the Dragon didn't even see a release there, until it was packaged with Reignited. And while Spyro was a Playstation icon of his own accord, Crash was still the mascot and bigger driving force, his original Trilogy selling about double the amount Spyro did. Then came Enter the Dragonfly and while post-Naughty Dog Crash was merely divisive until 2006, post-Insomniac Spyro was near-universally disliked. While the Legend of Spyro reboot series does have its' fans, the big majority of Spyro's are fans of the Classics, so Spyro suffered an even bigger downfall than Crash. Furthermore, while he was the launching point for Skylanders, he fell out of relevance there as Skylanders became a success able to stand on its' own, though has made a comeback on that front by his protagonist role in the Skylanders Academy TV series. Either way, I mainly see Spyro getting in as a bundle with Crash, but I can't see solo Spyro coming before him.

Want: 80% - Which is a shame, since his original trilogy was fantastic and is brimming with rich content for him to pull from! While Spyro played no role in my childhood, Reignited Trilogy was an absolute blast to play and has definitely made me want to see this dragon's successes immortalized in Smash!


Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10

Predictions::
Kratos - 4.14%
Master Chief - 45.38%

 

[Wunderwaft]

Crash Bandicoot

Chances: 65%
Ooh boy now this is a character with a hopeful outlook. What else needs to be said about Crash? He was the Playstation mascot of the 90s and rivaled Mario and Sonic. His games are popular worldwide. And he's still relevant to the modern gaming industry, hell we just got a new game announced for our good old bandicoot. To top it all off Western IPs have been increasingly added in Ultimate compared to other Smash games, what with us getting a Fallout mii costume of all things. Things are going well for Crash, too good if I have to say. Activision have had a cooperative relationship with Nintendo, what with them releasing ports of their big games from Crash to Overwatch on the Switch, it's not even a new relationship, it's an old one what with Activision releasing games on Nintendo consoles since a couple of generations ago.

Out of every third party character, Crash seems to have the least amount of obstacles covering his path. He doesn't really have strong competition from his parent company (One could argue that Tracer and a Blizzard would pose a threat, but I highly doubt that). Crash has been enjoying his recent resurgence and he seems like one of the top contenders for FP2. Let me put it this way, if Crash is considered unlikely, then what hope does every other Western IP have? He hits all the notes right.

The only reason I refuse to put him above 70% is because I have a nasty gut feeling that Crash might look like the Resident Evil of the second pass, a character that everyone generally agrees is likely but doesn't get in for some reason. If it happened to Resident Evil then it can happen to anyone.


Want: 90%
I grew up with Crash and I always pictured him as Mario's true rival back during the PS1 days. I love the character, I love the franchise, he fits perfectly in Smash. He may have not been able to get in PSABR but he'll get in the next best thing.



Spyro

Chance: 0%
There is absolutely no chance in hell that Spyro is getting in before Crash, nada. Spyro has always lived behind Crash's shadow and that hasn't changed to this day. I'm confident we won't get a Spyro fighter, a mii or a spirit? Sure. A fighter? No.

Want: 70%
I like Spyro but I'd prefer that Crash gets in first. I always liked Crash more than Spyro, both in terms of character and the games they come from. Still, I would be fine with the dragon.


Nominating: Monster Hunter x5

Prediction:
Master Chief: 19.6%
Kratos 3.8%

 

[GoodGrief741]

bb-b-b-b-BUT IT'S NOT COMING ON SWITCH!"...................and? Persona's mainline games will never come to a Nintendo game and we still got Ren. No don't give me the Q2 bull**** excuse, because Crash's Main games (the original ones that made him the star he is) are on the Switch, again, thanks to the remasters. Also let's face it, Crash 4 will come to the Switch. It will just take a few months to be announced (probably next year assuming 2020 doesn't get worse)

Honestly if it were like Persona that'd be a relief. Persona games are bankrolled by Sony, so it makes sense they'd have an exclusivity deal in place. No such a thing for Crash, so for Crash 4 to have the same treatment as Persona 5 is pretty concerning in my eye. Keep in mind that Sega and Nintendo have a pretty stellar relationship, Persona nonwithstanding, whereas Activision and Nintendo... Not so much.

 

[ZTurtle]

Crash

Chances: 70%
As everyone has stated, Crash feels like he's got everything going for him. He's got mainstream popularity and relevance, popularity in Japan despite being a western character (well, at least back in the day. I'm not sure if he's particularly popular in Japan nowadays even with his resurgence, but I think it still helps) his main series is on Nintendo consoles (barring Crash 4 but that could change...), he's got demand from the Smash Bros fanbase, and he's got a strong legacy and impact in gaming history. There are hurdles, yes, like the Smash Bros team having less experience working with Western companies, Activision potentially being sticklers, and maybe the fact that Crash 4 wasn't announced to be on Switch right away. But I think Crash still has a good chance.

Want: 90%
I didn't grow up with Crash really, but I gave the PS1 trilogy a shot after the N Sane Trilogy was announced when I was in high school, and I was hooked! I really enjoyed the tight platforming and vibrant personality the games had, and I enjoy Crash's character as a big goofball who's got a good heart. I was thrilled when the N Sane Trilogy was announced for Switch, since that meant my PS4-less self could play it. He's not my most-wanted, but I'd be more than happy to see Crash enter the fray.

Spyro

Chances: 20%
It's hard to see him coming before Crash given the connection the two franchises have, as the Crash series has the stronger popularity and impact overall, the Spyro games flopped in Japan, and so on. He did have Skylanders over Crash, which gave him some relevance in the late 2000s through the mid 2010s compared to Crash who went dormant in that time period, but that was then and this is now, and Skylanders have fallen off and Crash is in the spotlight. I don't mean to downplay the quality of his games and his enduring popularity, but in the context of Smash chances, Crash does feel like a mandatory stepping stone for him to be able to cross the river.
Want: 55%
Spyro is neat, and I did thoroughly enjoy my time with the Reignited trilogy, but I just can't seem to grow the same attachment to the Dragon as I have the Bandicoot. So I can't say I'd be especially thrilled if Spyro did make it in before Crash. I wouldn't be upset either though, and I'm sure he'd make a ton of people happy, so I've gotta give him points for that.