Dante
41.62% Chance - 58.36% Want
First time we rated him he got 0.08% chance and 54.79% want. This was back when he was disconfirmed both by producer and director. Last time we rated him he got 49.38% chance and 64.23% want. By then, the producer's statement was quite outdated and the director's were rendered null by way of DMC 1-3 ports. Since then he's dropped in chance - could be that more people expect a more first-party oriented Pass after Min Min's release instead of a repeat of the previous one. Either way, just the fact that we've rated him relatively few times (compared to like 8 ratings for some characters) shows how new he is to speculation.
Winner of predictions was
Calamitas
with a near-exact 41.63% So close! You almost nailed it, so you still get 10 extra noms.
Phoenix Wright
44.13% Chance - 74.69% Want
First time we rated him he got 31.91% chance and 61.84% want. This was in the post-Joker days, so I imagine that people were really discarding Nintendo connection those days - plus Resident Evil was still in play. Second time we rated him he got 45.64% chance and 67.89% want. I think that rerating happened because he was voted as one of the most underrated post-E3 2019. Resident Evil was still in play, but the feeling that a Capcom rep was inevitable boosted both their chances. Last time we rated him he got 43.94% chance and 70.91% want. This was after Byleth, with RE out of the equation and Dante in to take its place - seems like Phoenix will always be the underdog. Either way, he's seen as likely as he was a year ago, but what surprises me is how he's constantly rising in want. Over a third of his want scores were 100%, which is pretty impressive (and it makes me quite happy).
Winners of predictions were
Jomosensual
Sari
and
Ninjaed
with a precise 45.00%
To my surprise, Phoenix topped Dante in chance. Talk about a turnabout! He's also the second most wanted character overall, and the current winner, Crash, is getting rerated soon. This will be a showdown to pay attention to.
Ryu Hayabusa
50.07% Chance - 53.13% Want
First time we rated him he got 46.95% chance and 66.50% want. This was in the days of Doomabusa, self-explanatory. When rerated after E3 (and, crucially, after FP2 was Hero and not just Erdrick and FP3 were the bear and bird instead of the blocky miner), his scores fell to 44.00% chance and 57.03% want. Not a huge drop, as the leak was still seen as believable. But here's where it gets interesting. His last rating was after Byleth, and yet he rose noticeably. 59.48% chance and 64.32% want. No leaks to back him, and he still pulled that off. I would attribute it to the common notion that he just makes too much sense as a pick - the leak didn't make him plausible, he made the leak believable. And that brings us to today, with both scores down. Honestly? Only clue I got is the possibility of a first party oriented Pass cannibalized some of his hype, but otherwise, no clue.
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a precise 5.00%
Ryu loses his spot as the likeliest character, with the Bandicoot taking that spot. Can Crash be beat? We'll see when his day comes!
Shantae
24.16% Chance - 58.73% Want
First time we rated her she got 7.17% chance and 48.96% want. This was before release (but after the final Direct, obviously), and so her Spirit was seen as a killing blow. Second time we rated her she got 10.25% chance and 44.94% want. This was after E3, and while many had warmed to the possibility of Spirit promotions by then, the indie status still hurt all the contenders. Last time we rated her she got 10.89% chance and 54.28% want. This was after Byleth, but more importantly to Shantae after Sans and Cuphead got in... as Mii Costumes - clearly the competition being out of the way was offset by the perception of a ceiling for indies. As for now? Spirits being on the table did wonders for her chances, or at least her dedicated fanbase's confidence in them. Want is constant, which shows there's an undying support for this half-genie.
Winner of predictions was
Calamitas
with 23.53%
Quote
13.50% Chance - 53.26% Want
First time we rated him he got 8.54% chance and 52.92% want. This was post-Joker, and I'd argue that him being seen as too small (before what's an SNK and the fun over recognizability quote) and Steve being seen as both an indie rep and a near-lock hurt his chances. Last time we rated him he got 15.36% chance and 63.83% want. A big rise in both scores, and while Steve being KO surely played a role, I'd say this is one of those instances where a person really backs a character and convinces the thread of their history and potential. What happened since then? The slight drop in chance and massive loss in want have many explanations: Min Min puts Shantae firmly back on the table, Reimu's gotten tons of discussion since then, Mii Costumes are now seen as the go-to place for indies (and Quote himself got a rating as that), and he got rated the same day as Shantae, so bias might have also played a role.
Winners of predictions were
NintenRob
with a precise 12.00% and
Sari
and
BowserKing
with 15.00%
