Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[amageish]

Hmm, maybe I'm phrasing it wrong. The idea here isn't "Stardew > SoS", but rather that SoS is very easily threatened in all sides. If we get a farming sim, why SoS aside from legacy? If we get more third parties, why Marvelous? If we get Marvelous, why SoS? If a more casual-catering game, why not Minecraft? If a pick that's popular in Japan, why not Touhou or several other options? And so on.

The point is that SoS does have legacy and big ties to Nintendo... but that's about it. SoS has some popularity in Japan, but nowhere near DQ levels. And its demand in the core Smash community is not big enough to warrant a BK-esque pick. This isn't like the Banjo-Steve situation where most people agreed it was one or the other if we got a Microsoft rep, but more like a Klonoa/Morrigan situation where the character has some legacy and support, but there are several candidates bigger than them - both in and out of their respective companies.

I think your point about not having Banjo-level demand is very true, but I don't think we're arguing Farmer has that (our tiny support thread will prove that one). That said, Sakurai explicitly said popularity isn't the #1 factor and I think Terry proves that franchise popularity (see Ornl's magazine stats for that one) plus legacy can be major boosts, even if the Smash community as a whole isn't loudly demanding the character.

As for your series of questions... You could interrogate any character like that? Yes, if you break down every individual aspect of Farmer, then there are others who do things better then them. The thing that makes Farmer plausible, if not exceptionally likely, is that they do all of those things at once (while also being from a series that is so close to Nintendo that you can dress up like Mario in their games).

As for the Klonoa/Morrigan comparison... Yeah, as GoodGrief said, Story of Seasons is a franchise that is still currently getting games and, in fact, has already had two Switch games in Japan (one in the west with the other mid-localization ATM) with more to come in the future... I really hope that Klonoa trademark will amount to a new game for its fans and that Capcom does something with Darkstalkers in the future, but, for now, they've been pretty dormant.

I'm not saying that I expect Farmer to get into the game. I gave them 20% for a reason. I do, however, think that Farmer is seriously overlooked as a contender, probably due to not everyone wanting them in the game.

 

[Ninjaed]

To be honest, I know Marvelous first for the Senran Kagura series, and only after for No More Heroes. I'm just not sure Senran Kagura is for "good boys and girls".

 

[3BitSaurus]

And I don't see the comparison with Darkstalkers and especially Klonoa. Unlike those two, we're talking about a series with tons of games and decades worth of legacy, we're talking about a series that's the codifier of its genre, we're talking about a series that doesn't have that much competition within its company or its genre, and remember, we're talking about a series that's still alive.

You could interrogate any character like that? Yes, if you break down every individual aspect of Farmer, then there are others who do things better then them. The thing that makes Farmer plausible, if not exceptionally likely, is that they do all of those things at once (while also being from a series that is so close to Nintendo that you can dress up like Mario in their games).

That's all true, but... uh, looks like I'm still not getting across well. Let's try this:

Grief gave the example of Joker and Terry, but the former is a new rising star of Atlus (Sega) whose only internal contenders were Puyo and Yakuza, really. Plus from other JRPGs, the fact it was considered along with DQ means it was pretty high up in Sakurai's uh "priorities", if you can even call it that.

As for Terry, he not only comes from the company whose fighting games influenced Smash the most, but is also its poster boy. I made a statement (I think in the Newcomer Thread) some time ago saying that for these factors - and a few others, like SNK's ressurgence and their crossovers - if Heihachi was too difficult for now, I fully expected another fighting game rep to come from SNK. That's the level of clout they had imo.

Meanwhile, SoS... has none of that. It has the in-genre legacy, absolutely, I never tried saying it didn't. But it's hardly seen as a "mascot series" for Marvelous and doesn't have many other connections to Smash aside from being in Nintendo platforms - which help, sure, but aren't really a requirement. That's the same factor that got Banjo and Kazooie in, but the difference is that Banjo had almost 20 years of fan demand on that backpack of his and SoS doesn't.

Again, I'm not trying to **** on the series, nor am I saying it's impossible (I'd give it 0% otherwise), but I just... don't think it's very likely.

 

[Perkilator]

I believe it's now time for the next day (and a title change)?

 

[GoodGrief741]

That's all true, but... uh, looks like I'm still not getting across well. Let's try this:

Grief gave the example of Joker and Terry, but the former is a new rising star of Atlus (Sega) whose only internal contenders were Puyo and Yakuza, really. Plus from other JRPGs, the fact it was considered along with DQ means it was pretty high up in Sakurai's uh "priorities", if you can even call it that.

As for Terry, he not only comes from the company whose fighting games influenced Smash the most, but is also its poster boy. I made a statement (I think in the Newcomer Thread) some time ago saying that for these factors - and a few others, like SNK's ressurgence and their crossovers - if Heihachi was too difficult for now, I fully expected another fighting game rep to come from SNK. That's the level of clout they had imo.

Meanwhile, SoS... has none of that. It has the in-genre legacy, absolutely, I never tried saying it didn't. But it's hardly seen as a "mascot series" for Marvelous and doesn't have many other connections to Smash aside from being in Nintendo platforms - which help, sure, but aren't really a requirement. That's the same factor that got Banjo and Kazooie in, but the difference is that Banjo had almost 20 years of fan demand on that backpack of his and SoS doesn't.

Again, I'm not trying to **** on the series, nor am I saying it's impossible (I'd give it 0% otherwise), but I just... don't think it's very likely.

Now I really don't know what your point is. Story of Seasons isn't a mascot series for a company that doesn't have one, it doesn't have any connections to Smash (whatever that means) and it doesn't have Banjo-Kazooie levels of demand?

I mean, I'm pretty sure those aren't the standards any franchise is held to. Like, I guess those are cons, but I'm not seeing how any of those is a big deal.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Now I really don't know what your point is. Story of Seasons isn't a mascot series for a company that doesn't have one, it doesn't have any connections to Smash (whatever that means) and it doesn't have Banjo-Kazooie levels of demand?

I mean, I'm pretty sure those aren't the standards any franchise is held to. Like, I guess those are cons, but I'm not seeing how any of those is a big deal.

Uh... yes. That's what I mean. SoS has precisely two pros (legacy, Nintendo connection) and quite a few cons (or rather, stuff it doesn't have, like massive fan demand). I'm not saying it NEEDS to fill all these in (no third party ever did), just that I think SoS' legacy alone may not be enough to put it in Smash.

...Look man, I've had a really weird day and almost no sleep, be patient with me, I might take a while to actually make a point lol.

 

[amageish]

That's all true, but... uh, looks like I'm still not getting across well. Let's try this:

Grief gave the example of Joker and Terry, but the former is a new rising star of Atlus (Sega) whose only internal contenders were Puyo and Yakuza, really. Plus from other JRPGs, the fact it was considered along with DQ means it was pretty high up in Sakurai's uh "priorities", if you can even call it that.

As for Terry, he not only comes from the company whose fighting games influenced Smash the most, but is also its poster boy. I made a statement (I think in the Newcomer Thread) some time ago saying that for these factors - and a few others, like SNK's ressurgence and their crossovers - if Heihachi was too difficult for now, I fully expected another fighting game rep to come from SNK. That's the level of clout they had imo.

Meanwhile, SoS... has none of that. It has the in-genre legacy, absolutely, I never tried saying it didn't. But it's hardly seen as a "mascot series" for Marvelous and doesn't have many other connections to Smash aside from being in Nintendo platforms - which help, sure, but aren't really a requirement. That's the same factor that got Banjo and Kazooie in, but the difference is that Banjo had almost 20 years of fan demand on that backpack of his and SoS doesn't.

Again, I'm not trying to **** on the series, nor am I saying it's impossible (I'd give it 0% otherwise), but I just... don't think it's very likely.

I'm aware you're not trying to be harsh and it's chill. We're cool. I just don't think your points hold much water?

Terry definitely did have the direct influence on Smash in his favour. I am not surprised that SNK was the choice for a second fighter rep after Street Fighter either; however, I also don't think Sakurai would have said that he doesn't consider character fame to be the #1 factor for a potential Smash slot in Terry's showcase if Sakurai didn't mean it. I don't see how SoS starting a genre isn't similar to Terry's influencing a genre though, unless you're suggesting that SNK's primary reason for getting in was due to its influence on Smash and not on fighting games as a whole...

Otherwise, as Grief said, there is no face of Marvelous. If there was one, it could either be Farmer or Asuka - I don't think that anyone would argue Travis is the face of Marvelous, as he's the face of Suda's company Grasshopper... Plus, as I said, it is more then just "games on Nintendo platforms" - Nintendo publishes some of the games and puts Nintendo-branded content into said games.

You make a good point about fan demand and I agree it isn't likely overall. I just don't think it isn't likely for those reasons haha.

 

[Ornl]

has precisely two pros (legacy, Nintendo connection) and quite a few cons (or rather, stuff it doesn't have, like massive fan demand).

Story of Seasons can also has a multitude of other arbitrary mini-advantages ^^ :
- would make his first appearance in Smash Bros, Smash Bros-like or Amiibo,
- would be the first rep of its company,
- has almost 40 different games (with Rune Factory and Natsune :S ) and is not dead,
- is Japanese, with TV ad in Japan,
- was born on SNES (Ultimate has 6 third-party series born on NES, but only Street Fighter was born on SNES :S ),
- doesn't have mature content,
- could bring a first "toon" human after all the "badass" / "manga-badass" third-party humans,
- could bring a female alt,
- has iconic elements (cow, chick, dog, blue feather...)
- is more of a simulation series than JRPG, and the JRPG episodes are different from Persona or Dragon Quest,
...
What isn't arbitrary is that Sakurai "doesn’t follow internet reactions so didn’t know all the fan predictions" (link).

 

[Calamitas]

I guess I'll quickly give my take before this day ends.

Go home and be a farm boy

Chance: Abstain
. . .Yeah, I guess I'll echo the sentiments of many other people here. I have of course heard of Harvest Moon a bit over the years, but I still don't know who even owns the series - and that in itself seems to be a tricky subject, too? At any rate, I'll say that even if I'm abstaining on my vote, I am tending towards a lower rating. The demand for a Harvest Moon character simply isn't there, and since it's a third-party franchise, that's honestly kind of a death sentence.

Want: 20%
Ehh, I guess a farmer could make for an interesting Smash character. Of course, some people here have thrown around villager comparisons, but I don't think that the two really would offer themselves for a similar playstyle.

Nominating: Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x5

Predicting a League of Legends rep to get around 10.01%.

 

[Sari]

Abstaining completely on Farmer. I don't have much experience/knowledge of the series (only played a bit of the GBA one) and I don't think I'll have enough time to give a proper rating anyway.

LoL rep chance prediction: 8.96% (I seriously have no idea how this day will go)

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[Ridrool64]

I wonder if Barnyard rules apply to Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons farm animals...

Chance: At this point, I'm hearing too many conflicting opinions from next to no chance or some incredible sleeper pick. All I know is, they don't seem to have a whole lot of western fan support even to this day. But beyond that I have no idea, so I think I should abstain.

Want: 15%. Stardew Valley, which I've heard massive amounts of praise for, isn't really my kind of game. I doubt a rep from a series like it that I haven't played would impress me very much.

Lloyd x 5.

 

[Ornl]

All I know is, they don't seem to have a whole lot of western fan support even to this day.

Yes, like Joker, Erdrick/Luminary before leaks, Solo/Eight and Terry.

The Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion thread doesn't debate about Story of Seasons. It's RTC that really helped to present the series. So the 12 abstentions (>1/3) are understandable because there were too few shared opinions beforehand.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on the Farmer since I have little knowledge or experience with the series. Though the game has had several entries on Nintendo systems, so it's mainly tough competition and a lack of fan support that's holding the series back from Smash representation.


Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
League of Legends rep - 5.46%

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: League of Legends rep.

Predict Blaze the Cat.

----------

Some music to get into the League of Legends mood.

Spoiler: League of Legends Music

----------

Abstaining completely since I know almost nothing about LoL or its chances.

Blaze chance prediction: 0.61% (we are still missing most of the main Sonic cast)

Nominations:
Quote x5

 

[NintenRob]

Another abstain here as well. I understand why someone would want to discuss this, but I have no interest or care.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

 

[SKX31]

Ten cent bet on Riot's game (League of Legends representative):

Chance: 40 %

Now, lemme tell ya why I've been bullish on LoL. Its MOBA brother / rival, Dota 2 (seriously, the rivalry was at points as bad as the SNES / Genesis) will get some time in the spotlight with the upcoming Valve rep day. I'll start nomming Dota 2 if it or its spinoff's confirmed for the Switch by the by.

First of all, it has a long and at times turbulent history, which shaped LoL completely. Y'see, LoL has had one of the three original Dota 1 developers (the other two being Valve employees and working with Dota 2 nowadays), Steve "Guinsoo" Feak since around 2008 / 2009. That's enough to cause a fandom rivalry on its own. The Pendragon scandal (a Dota forum admin closed down the forum he managed - completely - and replaced it with a LoL ad) only fanned the flames. And Riot and Valve took drastically different approaches when it comes to game design. While both Dota 2 and LoL share many similarities (most playable characters have 3 spells + one Ultimate at Level 6, etc.) there are a lot of differences by now - every LoL champion has a passive which have been there since Day 1, every Dota 2 hero has a talent tree which was added in rather recently. I'd describe Dota 2 as an epileptic tree. League, meanwhile, is a constantly manicured and maintained tree. Sometimes a bit too manicured, but still.

I said that the rivalry got as bad as the SNES / Genesis one at points. I'm not joking.

Anyhow, the reason I wrote the above is that Riot's attention to game balancing might help LoL's chances in Smash. The careful attention to balancing has produced quite a lot of intriguing mechanics, which has been carefully fine tuned (sometimes that has backfired though, but still). If Sakurai were to choose a MOBA, it would likely be because of its mechanics.

Take for instance Ahri - one of LoL's poster children. She has two mechanics at her disposal included with her four spells:

* Essence Theft (alongside her spell Orb of Deception): Hitting enemies with Ahri's Spells grants stacks of Essence Theft. Capping out on ET means she'll lifesteal when she hits her next OoD.

* Vastayan Grace (her passive): If Ahri earns 2 spell hits against an enemy champion within a 1.5 second period, she gains 20% Movement Speed for 3 seconds. (In LoL, this might be adjusted for Smash if she gets in)

That's already a very strong basis for a moveset. Add on that, those combined with her spells means a potentially unique character for Smash. LoL has a lot of similar intriguing options.

The biggest question is of course if Sakurai's even remotely interested in MOBAs. And MOBAs don't have a strong position in Japan at all. But Sakurai's very likely heard of them (LoL - aside from being a mega-success - is ultimately owned by Tencent, who are working with Nintendo on the Switch's Chinese release, and Dota 2's become Steam's biggest game for 6 years running). LoL is very likely heading to the Switch too thanks to the console port Wild Rift, so its chances are actually pretty major.

Want: 60 %

While not my favorite game per se (that goes to Dota 2), I personally am perfectly fine with and even support LoL's inclusion. It comes down to LoL having interesting mechanics on its own right and providing its own sense of style into Smash. Honestly, I think either LoL / Dota 2 - or hell, even both - could fit perfectly into the game.

Noms: Thrall x5
Predictions: Blaze 0,1 % (She's one of my favorite Sonic characters next to Omega, but when SEGA's really wonky with its characters...)

 

[3DSNinja]

Abstain on LoL, as I don't play it and I know next to nothing on the characters.
Nominations: Shadow x5

 

[Jomosensual]

League of Legends rep

Chance 20 - I think there's a better shot here than most people realize. League of Legends is pretty popular in the west and in select areas of the east. It is also owned by Riot, who is owned by Tencent who I believe is working on getting Switch sales started in China at the moment. It would not surprise me at all if they had a bunch of their games come to the Switch because of this and have a character get added to their best selling game(Or at least i'm pretty sure it is) and should that happen it looks like the top bet would be League of Legends, which it now fully owns. Obviously this is a pretty hypothetical scenario but it really doesn't feel that crazy either. The biggest issue is that while LoL is major in a lot of eastern countries like China and Korea, it isn't as popular in Japan.

Want - 50. I don't really know enough about LoL to have a connection or a real want for any of the characters other than Teemo, who is adorable. My brother is a huge fan though and his reaction to getting a LoL character in the game would be worth seeing.

Predict Blaze - .28. Could see another Brash the Bear score here

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

League of Legends summons a character to Smash!

So, everyone knows LoL, the game needs no introductions. While DOTA created the genre, LoL is pretty much the champion. It was a craze and it maintains relevance to this day, I don't think anyone can make any arguments against its impact in gaming history.

And it's a really undemanding game technically, so surely it's been on a Nintendo conso-

Hmmm... Looks like it hasn't.

Well, at least the developer, Riot Games, has probably worked with Nintendo at some-

Huh. This is the only game they've made.

But, maybe they're working on something for the Nintendo audien-

There's a mobile version of LoL slated to be ported to... undisclosed "consoles"?

Chance: 2%

This is probably one of the main reasons why I think Sakurai's vision of the Ultimate gaming crossover is unrealizable: what do you do with PC and mobile gaming? Those are very, very different audiences from the console space, with very little overlap or interaction really. League of Legends is a big deal that everyone will recognize. It's also a series with likely very little appeal to most Smash players, and one whose target audience likely won't buy into Smash even with a character. I'm also not sure that any LoL character would be recognizable to the Smash playerbase, so weirdly enough we could have tons of "literally who" responses to a character that, for the PC audience, is probably as iconic as Kirby is to us.

Plus, y'know, zero demand and a Western franchise. Not seeing it.

Want: 0%
Don't care about LoL, played it for a bit but I could never get into it. Plus getting Tencent involved is a big ****ing no-no in my book.

Noms: first party x5
Blaze prediction: 2.03%

 

[GoodGrief741]

For some reason a lot of y'all consider Villager a farmer? Guys, he has one move where he plants a tree and one where he attacks with turnips, if that's all it took to fulfill an archetype then Ganondorf is an anime swordfighter.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Farmer pre-Concept: League of Legends rep

Ninten x125
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x125
9-Volt x120
Rundas x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x115
Riesz (Mana) x110
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Boss: Kracko x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Frogger x100
[Rerate] Steve x100
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x100
Concept: Any grass-type starter x93
Sol Badguy x90
Glover x85
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x85
[Rerate] Geno x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Thrall (Warcraft) x75
[Rerate] Quote x72
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
[Rerate] Sora x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Francis York Morgan x60
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
Sackboy x48
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Heihachi x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
Earthworm Jim x28
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x25
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x20
Meowth x20
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x20
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x20
King Boo x16
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x15
Kunio (River City) x15
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x15
Urbosa x12
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Dovahkiin strides forth, tying with Ninten for first place and leaving 9-Volt in third. Riesz passes Protector to take sixth place. The latter is now tied with Boss: Kracko, in a duel for seventh place.

Shadow the Hedgehog and Unsafe Wiimote Guy bust out of the under 25 club.

 

[Ornl]

Lol rep
Chance: 0% - Lol in Smash Bros would be a total loss of identity IMO. I can't imagine that Ultimate welcomes a second Western rep without link to Nintendo. Not before Crash, Doom, Minecraft, Tomb Raider... I think Lol in Ultimate would become an open door to any fan wishes for other Western eSport games (FIFA, Counter-Strike, TrackMania, Starcraft, Overwatch, Fortnite...). I can't imagine that before the eSport series Tekken comes in Ultimate, or possibly Puyo Puyo ^^.

 

[Wunderwaft]

League of Legends rep

Chance: 20%
Now here's a big title that everyone should know already. The impact that League has on gaming is quite clear to the naked eye, it's iconic, it's relevant, and it's popular. Now does this contribute to a Smash character? Well it's possible that's for sure. My only main gripe is that we don't know how Nintendo or Sakurai feel about the game and genre. The game might be big but it might not be on Nintendo's radar. League does have a shot, and if we get a rep it's probably gonna be Ahri. Who knows? Riot has been expanding on other genres and LoL is getting a fighting game in the future. But at the moment it's unclear how likely a rep is because the game is way too distanced from the Nintendo audience and we don't know how Nintendo feels about this game.

Want: 55%
I played League of Legends a long time ago and I had fun back then. I'm not up to date with current LoL since I haven't played in a long time, but regardless I would be interested in seeing this franchise join Smash.

Prediction: Blaze 0.54%
Nomination: Steve x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

So I wanna get this done early because I'm sure we'll see a lot of abstains and lack of general information, so...

League of Legends rep
Chance: 50%
"Why so high?", I hear some ask. Well, lemme tell you why:

Let's go over the general history first. League, as 2019, is 10 years old and, as of 2017, had about 100 million users worldwide. Its influence in the genre is massive, being rivaled only by Dota 2 and even then, it's widely considered "the more accessible one" between the two. League helped shape Esports into what it is today and is crazy popular in regions Nintendo is currently trying to penetrate, like China.

With all of that said, we need to look at a few questions for whether or not a League rep is viable:

- "Does Riot even care about Smash?"
Yes. Back in 2015, information surfaced about a Brawl mod made and played internally by Rioters with League champions replacing the characters - supposedly, with all-new moves in some cases. The fact that people would do this on their free time at the company for a game that would only ever be played internally speaks volumes for how some people in there care about Smash. So it's no stretch to say that Riot, despite being kinda distant from the console market, understands the importance of Smash.

- "Will their relation to Tencent and popularity in China matter?"
Possibly. Tencent is helping Nintendo with Switch negotiations in China and, as SKX31 pointed out in the Newcomer Thread, it's possible that China can even become a major region for Nintendo depending on how well this goes. Also according to him, marketing the Fighters Pass along with the base game makes sense there, especially because of Terry... so who's to say another character that's popular there isn't a possibility? Sure, there's no guarantee, but the opportunity is there. And if it's there, well... why not a game that Tencent has their hand in?

- "They only ever made League of Legends!"
Yes... Until now. Riot is looking to expand their brand with LoL spinoffs (including a fighting game made by FGC veterans) and new IPs, like an FPS in the style of Overwatch. Truth is, Rioters can be fans of several different genres, and it's definitely showing now. Smash, to Riot, could be a godsend to expand their influence outside of the PC crowd - most see that as a con, but I actually see it as a pro. Plus, I'm willing to bet that out of their 4-5 new projects, at least one or two might hit consoles and/or the Switch. Which brings me to my next point...

- "They have no relation to Nintendo and aren't on a Nintendo console!"
Yes... Until next year, that is. Wild Rift is set to release for consoles in 2020 and... whoa, what's that? Job listings that reference the Switch on Riot's website? My, whatever could that mean? Jokes aside, this means Wild Rift for the Switch is practically confirmed, meaning League might officially be in Nintendo consoles as soon as next year. You know, possibly the same year that Ultimate might get released in China, along with the stuff SKX mentioned before? Hmm, I wonder what else is happening in 2020-

- "How can you even join a PC-centric audience with the Nintendo one for an announcement?"
Oh hey, what's that? Nintendo is holding press conferences for announcements at Chinese gaming events? Okay, doesn't sound like enough... oh, Worlds 2020 for League will be in China, too? Interesting... so there's actually plenty of opportunities for a joint announcement. Besides, if it can be done for Valve games and Blizzard games... it can be done for Riot. I think League is being super slept on and people just toss it aside for being PC-centric and not being on the Switch.

- In reality, I think the only remaining question is... "Would Sakurai/Nintendo be up for it?"
And that leaves me at a 50% rating, because as far as that's concerned, it's a coin toss. Either it will happen or it won't, that's all there is to it. It's a similar treatment to what I gave Professor Layton in the last RTC season, for instance.

In terms of possible characters, I think they'd pick someone who would be unique by Smash standards, kinda popular and not too difficult to implement. Ahri seems to be the favorite in that regard, but there are quite a few choices, like Lux, Jinx and Ryze. It would bring a new genre and new mechanics to Smash, which is not something most people will argue against.

Your honor, I rest my case.

Want: 100%
Been a League fan for some time, but I never seriously considered it for Smash until a few months ago. As I said in the LoL thread, I suppose the Fighters Pass has really opened my eyes for possibilities, huh?

Ahri in particular is a character I'd love to be in among the "faces" of League. So much so that she's in my Top 5 right now. I think there's a lot of potential here and I'd love to see it come to fruition aside from that Brawl mod.

Predictions
Blaze the cat: 0.32%

Nominations
[Rerate] Sora x 5

 

[BowserKing]

League of Legends Rep

Chance: Now that I know some information, I'll give it 35%. The main issue is the competition it will face, but it would do well against most fighters in getting in.

Want: 50% A Rep would be fun to play as, with some music to boot. The thing is which rep is the perfect choice?

Predicting: Blaze the Cat: 5%

Noms: 2 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 3 for Urbosa

 

[DanganZilla5]

The game that has the same abbreviation as laugh out loud

Chance: 11%

I guess it could happen. League of Legends certainly has history and is still decently popular to my knowledge. There are certainly a lot of champions and while I'm not too familiar with the game, I'm certain there are some characters that would have a cool and unique moveset. LoL is one of the most well known MOBAs in the industry. Even people who don't play PC games or multiplayer games have at least heard of LoL. If Sakurai wanted to choose a MOBA character, it would probably be from LoL.

However, we have to talk about the elephant in the room: LoL has never been on a Nintendo console. Every character in Smash has had some kind of history with Smash, whether it be the character or their franchise. I did some research and could only find this: https://www.sourcegaming.info/2015/10/05/sakuraithirdparty/. Sakurai stated that it is a courtesy that a third-party character have some Nintendo history. But I couldn't find anything that had Sakurai directly say that a character has to have Nintendo history. However, actions speak louder than words and there has yet to be a precedent for a character with zero Nintendo history. In addition, we don't know how Sakurai feels about PC games like LoL.

Furthermore, when it comes to PC multiplayer games, I see Blizzard getting a rep first before Riot Games, who hasn't made anything else really notable. I understand Blizzard's games are generally not in the same genre, and thus do not directly compete with LoL, but Blizzard has already been working with the Switch with games like Diablo 3 and Overwatch. Also, Riot Games is a western company. Now, I know whenever I talk about western characters, I almost always say things like, "If we are getting some more western characters, it would certainly be characters like Crash, Doom Slayer, and Steve." But it's true. We'll probably only get a couple more western characters and if that's the case, it would certainly be highly requested characters. And that's another gripe I have with LoL. It's not that requested, and speaking from personal experience, I've seen very few requests for a LoL rep.

Still, LoL has merit to it and I think its influence on the industry alone gives it a close to decent chance of seeing a rep make it into Smash. And I could see it as a left-field pick.

Want: 20%

Meh. I would rather have any of the characters in my signature. I'm not a fan of this kind of game. The characters and possible stage picks seem cool though.

Predictions: Blaze the Cat - 0.50% (Over characters like Tails and Eggman? If Shadow and knuckles are only assist trophies, what chance does this character have?)

Noms: Geno x5

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain on both. Don’t really care much for League of Legends.

Prediction: Blaze, 1.7%

Nomination: Claude von Riegan re-rate x5

 

[RoboFist]

My knowledge of LoL begins and ends with their animated music videos, which, don't get me wrong, bump. Not to embarrassingly show my hand too much here, but if we got a POP/STAR track to accompany a couple of skins, I would be a happy enough guy. That being said, I've never actually played the game nor do I know too much about its playerbase (except it's enormous) or lore, so I'm abstaining today.

I will say, however, that I can completely see Nintendo going the "MMO rep" route sooner rather than later, and that characters from LoL, WoW, and DOTA are all definitely being slept on in terms of F#5. The reasons are overwhelming as to why Nintendo would want to target this audience. Which is why, again, I'm...

Nominating: Thrall x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know anything about LoL.

Nominations: Boss: Kracko x5

 

[warpenguin55]

League of Legends Rep

Chance: 10%
League's got a couple things going it's way:

• League of Legends might actually being coming to the switch. Last month, a League of Legends port for mobile and console was announced called "League of Legends Wild Rift". The current plans are for mobile to come first (aiming for a full release before the end of next year). After that, it's coming to consoles. No consoles have been specifically mentioned yet, but with the console release not being for at least another year I can understand why.
• League of Legends is owned by Riot Games who are owned by Tencent. For those who might not know, Tencent is a pretty big company in China. Tencent has also been pushing for the Switch to come to China, which would be a massive market for Nintendo. While LoL (and the MOBA genre as a whole) is no longer as popular as it was 7 or so years ago in the West, in China it never really lost as much steam. So if we do get the previously mentioned Wild Rift on the Switch and the Switch comes to China
• League of Legends is one of the biggest E-Sports in the world, if not the biggest. Even though League isn't the juggernaut it used to be, it's still extremely recognizable to gamers worldwide and would bring a ton of attention to Smash.

As for who would get the invite, there's no shortage of options. There are 147 Champions in the game with #148 on the way. A few characters I think would work out well in Smash without too many changes would be Ahri, Darius, Ezreal, and Zed. All 4 of them are in the Wild Rift and are decently popular champions.

If we wanted to go with a weirder choice, Sylas could be the character chosen (the offical league site doesn't have videos of his abilities for some reason). Sylas is known for stealing the ultimate ability of other characters instead of having his own, so if they wanted to show off as many champions as possible, they could take his move theft another step further and have him take some non ultimate abilities from different league champions. This would make his moveset potential massive.

With some characters, there's a concern of "how would they recover?". With League's camera being top down, most champions don't have a move that lets them jump. My solution to that issue is Flash. In LoL, there are things called summoner spells, basically just extra abilities that aren't tied to a specific champion and you can choose them before the game starts. One of the summoner spells, Flash, could fill in as the Up Special. I couldn't find a good video to show what flash does without possibly confusing people, so just think of it as a Palutena warp but it's a lot quicker and the range is a lot shorter. There are only 2 or 3 champions in the game that don't pick Flash, none of which I'd consider being viable for a Smash DLC slot. Flash is basically a 6th ability for every champion.

I could probaly keep going forever about why League would be awesome to see in smash, but this post is getting too long. If you want even more info, go check out the League of Legends rep support thread. If a League of Legends rep is coming, it's not going to be the 5th fighters pass character. The earliest I can even see an announcement would be late 2020.

Side note: you can actually make Yasuo in both Smash4 and Ultimate as a Mii Swordfighter. If you set the specials as Gale Strike, Airborne Assault/ Gale Stab, Skyward Slash Dash, and Reversal Slash, you basically have Yasuo. I didn't include him with the others because of this reason.



Want: 100%
My favorite games are League of Legends and Smash. I've been playing both for a long time now, and seeing them come together would be my biggest dream come true. If I had to choose 1 character to come to smash, it would be Zed. I think he would work so well and would probably be the most fun to play in Smash (even though I hate playing him in League of Legends). I wish Malzahar (the guy in my profile picture) was a viable option for Smash, as he's my favorite character, but he's got mechanics that would not translate out of LoL very well.

Predictions:
Blaze: .3%

Noms:
Frogger x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

I'm done making rtc posts. I'm sorry to all my fans who only read my rtc posts but please, go rea-
Chance: 1%
Wether LoL will come to the Switch or not, I'm not sure Nintendo/Sakurai would even go for a character from this game to begin with. To my knowledge, none are that iconic or recognizable. Also we tend to not get many western third-parties with us only getting Banjo not that long ago and I'm pretty sure there are many more popular characters for that market LoL would have to compete with.

Want: 0%
No attachment. I'm not a pc gamer and DOTAs don't look like my kinda genre. And while I'm pretty sure they're very different, LoL would probably compete with Warcraft for a Smash spot. I don't necessarily want that franchise but I'd certainly prefer it to LoL...

"Also League of Legends sucks di-"

Blaze: 3.47%
Hollow Knight x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna have to abstain again on League, since I know little about the franchise. While it may have a Switch port in the future, as it stands now it has no Nintendo representation, so I don't see the chances being too high.

Nominations:
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x5

Predictions:
Blaze the Cat - 1.17%

 

[Ninjaed]

League of Legends rep

Chance: 40%
Unlike other western characters, LoL is more cartoony in its style, like the Blizzard games. This already fits in Smash much more than the likes of Doomslayer.
Then you have the undeniable influence it had in making esports what it is today.
It currently has no history with Nintendo but it's about to change, the timing couldn't be more perfect.

But... it's a western franchise, Ahri may not be suitable for "good boys and girls" (maybe Katarina instead?), a community known for its toxicity, not that popular in Japan so far, unclear whether Nintendo would benefit from its inclusion... There's more but stuff like that keeps piling up and hurt LoL's chances.

Still, it's a well-known franchise and along with DotA gave birth to a trend for an entire new genre of games: MOBAs. It's big, or should I say massive. Even if you're not familiar with it, you've likely heard of it. But the waters are so fuzzy it's hard to pronounce myself on a set percentage really... Going with 40% because of how huge LoL is, but less than 50% to account for the drawbacks.

Want: 50%
I used to play LoL but am not on board a few things they did, but I mostly stopped because of how the community usually is. It apparently got better and I did enjoy playing Yuumi, but I'd already grown past my LoL phase: every match is too much more of the same to my taste, I felt like wasting my time, and with algorithms that want everyone to have a 50/50 win ratio, there was simply no point in playing anymore for me.

That said, some characters could have quite the interesting moveset in Smash, so I'm quite on board with that. Just not as excited as I'd be for Riesz, Amaterasu, Dr Eggman, Kat, Dante and many more.

Predictions: Blaze the Cat - 2.6%
I'm fairly certain people won't rate her very high, since she has to beat Tails and Eggman first to get in.

Nominations: Kiryu Kazuma x5 (I already know Kat likely stands no chance to make it in... sadly)

 

[3BitSaurus]

But... it's a western franchise, Ahri may not be suitable for "good boys and girls" (maybe Katarina instead?), a community known for its toxicity, not that popular in Japan so far, unclear whether Nintendo would benefit from its inclusion... There's more but stuff like that keeps piling up and hurt LoL's chances.

To clarify a few things: Ahri's design doesn't exactly leave room for panty shots, which seems to be CERO's big concern - just look at the prototype footage from their fighting game. So I think she'd be safe. At worst, they'd reduce her bust.

As for how Nintendo would benefit, it has more to do with League's popularity in other parts of Asia (like China and South Korea) and the world. At worst, you can argue other games could achieve a similar effect, but it's still something to keep in mind.

Finally, the toxicity... uh, have you looked at where we are? I don't think a fanbase's toxicity is something Sakurai takes into account.

That said, I think I agree with the rest.

 

[Troykv]

League of Legends Representation.

I would have taken this as a long shot as memey as wanting Heavy Smash... until that presentation happened, that expandad the limits of the Riot Empire beyond PC Gaming, now they have mobile, and even consoles. Switch seems may be a legit console to play Riot's IPs now.

So... It's actually possible.

Chance: 10%

Want: 50%

I'm familiar with League of Legends since years ago, so I would be invested in the idea, but I don't know what to expect xD.

Predictions:

Blaze The Cat: 1.43%

Nominations:

Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Deleted member]

We hitting the big leagues now

Chance: 23%

League of Legends is 1 of those games I always forget is massive as ****. It's THE biggest F2P game in the PC market given it's been around for over a decade, usually tops over 100 thousand viewers on Twitch's games category, and has 1 of the largest competitive scenes out there. It's also owned by Tencent, the Chinese Megagiant that owns Riot Games, the devs of LoL, and have multiple shares from Activision Blizzard, Epic Games, and so on. From a bunch of posts I've seen on the speculation thread, Nintendo decided to have Tencent as their business partner in China so that they could officially release the Switch in the country (or at least that's the main gist of it), so it's certainly possible for a character from a company owned by Tencent to be in Smash as a Thank You letter to Nintendo for helping them expand their reach in the Chinese market.

There is a League game coming out for consoles at some point, so any arguments about LoL not being in Smash because it's a PC only game is dead. Gameplay wise, it looks like it can fit with the style and pacing of Ultimate. It sure as hell got the popularity to get itself into Smash with what I said earlier. Perhaps the main thing to question with a League rep in Smash has to do with choosing which character to rep the series in Smash. There is a ****load of champions in League, and I don't know if there's any character who'd be considered the face of LoL. With Overwatch, Tracer has been marketed the heaviest out of everyone else in the game, so it's easy to believe she'd be in Smash. The same can be said about Dynasty Warriors with Zhao Yun since he's the poster boy of the franchise, but Lu Bu would also be 2nd behind him as a potential candidate because of his status as an icon for the series. League's massive list of characters without a defining face of the game makes it pretty damn difficult to choose who'd be the best candidate for Smash, whether if it's Nintendo choosing which character or Riot Games themselves. I don't usually think having a huge roster weakens a character's chance in Smash, but I feel as though League makes the rare exception to that case because of it. Does it mean they don't stand a chance at all? Not really.

Want: 40%

A League character intrigues me. On 1 hand, a series as huge as LoL would make me uninterested in seeing it appear in Smash since Smash would need a huge character from that game more than League needs Smash to advertise itself, but on the other hand, it's hardly brought up within the Smash community and would make for a shocking surprise over the likes of Jonesy and Tracer getting in. In fact, I'd prefer LoL being the 2nd(?) multiplayer only game in Smash over Fortnite and Overwatch since I have a lot of relatives that play it and would wonder how they'd react if a character from League is in Smash. I guess the major thing that keeps me from wanting to see it happen is Tencent possibly having a stake in Smash, but for some reason, I wouldn't really be bother by it even when they own a good portion of Activision Blizzard. Maybe another thing that would make me hesitant in seeing League in Smash is how toxic the fanbase is apparently. Considering League is a very competitive game and has a huge community behind it, I'm not so sure if I want to see how the fanbase would react if a League character was in Smash. Then again, Smash also has a community where a lot of people argue over which character should get in over others to the point that they'd **** on other characters for not being their favorite and had a competitive player argue about a pat in the back being considered coaching, so I don't think it'd be fair for me to brush off a League rep for its fanbase when Smash has its fair share of toxicity. Overall, I hold some interest in seeing League in Smash but not enough for me to say I want to see it happen.
--------------------------
Predictions:
Blaze It - 0.42%
--------------------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[Plank08]

Abstaining on Lol cause I know no details

Sackboy X 5
Blaze predictions are 2% because people can be generous sometimes

 

[Sid-cada]

League of Legends

Chance - 15% - I have no idea about this, as it's mostly dependent on Wild Rift. If its been in development for a while, I can potentially see someone get in. If its not, the chances are practically zilch. League is definitely a big name in the gaming sphere, but only to the computer market, which infamously has little overlap with console gamers like us. Still, it is big.

Want - 50% - There are over a hundred of these guys, no way I can give them a general rating. I think it will mostly come down to who they choose. I've been following the story and lore, though never touched the games.


Predictions

Blaze the Cat - 0.35% - About as random as Sonic characters can get...


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

abstain on League of Legands rep since I don't know enough about the game.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Blaze the Cat from the Sonic series.

Predict Arle Nadja from Puyo Puyo.

----------

Some songs to get into the Blaze mood:

Spoiler: Blaze Music

 

[Louisacommie]

I assume if a league character got in
It be one of the original 40