Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[BowserKing]

Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance: 10%. The chance of a rep from this game getting in is slim, yet possible. Competition is the main concern, but who knows what will happen.

Want: 50%. A rep from the game would be fun to play as. But since I don't know much about this franchise, It will be a 50/50 rate.

Noms: 3 for Urbosa and 2 for Concept: Any Grass-Type Starter

 

[chocolatejr9]

Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 35%
I will admit, this is assuming we get some form of first-party DLC. That being said, I think a Dragalia Lost rep is more likely than people think. It's Nintendo's first original IP for mobile, so it would make sense to promote it. Plus, while it may be lagging behind in terms of income, the overall reception to the game is VERY positive, being one of the most generous gacha games... ever, really. And before you bring up Fire Emblem Heroes, I honestly think it makes more sense to have the obligoratory "new FE character" come from Three Houses, the newest mainline game in the series.
Want: 100%
I really like Dragalia Lost, and I think it deserves more attention. While it is true that we already have a character who can turn into a dragon in Smash, I can assure you without a doubt that not just Euden (the main character), but literally ANY of the playable cast will play VERY differently from them. Plus, the music alone is enough to qualify it for Smash, in my honest opinion (bonus points if they can bring in DAOKO, the main singer).

Nominations: Ninten x5

 

[KatKit]

Dragalia Lost (and Grandblue) is super slept on. Dragalia is Nintendo's first IP to originate on mobile phones, and apparently it prints money. It's also already had crossovers with Fire Emblem and Megaman. Smash would be the perfect series to introduce it to people who can't and/or don't play games on mobile. Grandblue is making console appearances now with its upcoming Fantasy Versus fighting game and Re:link Action RPGs, and I'd like to see Dragalia make a similar transition to the home console side of gaming because the series seems pretty dope and so far it's one of the Nintendo IP's with zero representation in Smash. I think Smash will eventually shift its focus back to first party IPs, and Dragalia is modern, popular, and a huge milestone for the company.

Chance: 65%
Want: 95%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

What is a Dragalia?
Chance: 5%
If we're getting more first-parties in the future I think they're better options. Someone from Three Houses or Astral Chain or even a fan favourite like Bandana Dee seem like they would have more overlap with the Smash consumerbase. Also I just tried looking the game up on my phone to see how much it has been downloaded but I couldn't find it and Wikipedia didn't say anything about it being released in Europe. In fact it looks like it has been released everywhere but Europe. That probably makes a character from this game a less than ideal as a DLC choice.

Want: 0%
I don't have interest in Dragalia Lost but even if I did I can't download it. Sorry but if Europe gets left out on formal exposure to this game then it definitely gets a zero from me.

Farmer: 7.86%
Hollow Knight mii costume x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Chance: 0%
I don't have interest in Dragalia Lost but even if I did I can't download it. Sorry but if Europe gets left out on formal exposure to this game then it definitely gets a zero from me.

Did you mean "Want" here instead of "Chance"? Chance appears twice.

 

[warpenguin55]

Dragalia Lost:
Chance: 2%

I remember Nintendo hyping this game last year, but I haven't heard anything about it in a while. They might try to squeeze a character in, but imo, a Dragalia Lost rep is a "either base roster or not at all" kind of thing. Imagine for a moment if Shulk was DLC in Smash4. I feel like it would be a similar reaction. Especially since we just got Terry, who most people were not familiar with. Post pass I'd give it a 12%, but for slot number 5 I'll be giving it a 2%

Want: 0%
No experience w/ Dragalia Lost

Noms: Frogger x5

 

[SKX31]

Dragalia, Um, I'm already Los-*Gets booed out of the room*

Chance: 1 % for Ultimate's DLC, 20 % for Smash 6.

Really, this rating feels weird, but I'm basing it on the presumption that Sakurai's focusing on console games first.

On one hand, the mobile sphere is something Nintendo's been pushing into lately, as a "secondary" arm of their business and safety valve should their console business sputter. Also, mobile games lean very heavily into the "pick up and play" school of thought - it's partly why Angry Birds and Clash of Clans have been able to substain themselves for years. Likewise, even though Dragalia's not been released in Europe it seems it still is chugging along. Hell, SNK is getting quite a bit from its mobile business, and that speaks to that area's viability. Sure, one could argue that a lot of its viability rests on whales, but I'd argue that the mobile sphere has its limits. Otherwise Dungeon Keeper and Mega Man X iOS would still be raking in the cash.

On the other hand, mobile games are limited without the use of a USB controller. While mobiles are simple to pick up and play, the use of a touchscreen alone doesn't have the physical limit that controller sticks do. An analog stick literally stops moving once pushed to the edge, after all. Also, the limited size of most phones mean that there's a real balancing act with most mobile games using touch buttons. These gameplay limits are potentially limits that hold DL back for now. But who knows? Maybe VR could help allieviate these concerns in the future.

It's nigh-impossible to tell what Sakurai thinks of mobile games (he hasn't published a column on the topic AFAIK), but I could see him waiting on a DL character until its proven itself, either by a sequel or console port / follow up. I'm much more confident in a DL character for Smash 6, since by that time it'll be more established.

Want: ??

Uncharted territory, never played it myself (nor can I). A character from a mobile game could be interesting as a concept.

Noms: Thrall x5

 

[Ninjaed]

Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 1%
Giving it the pity percent because I just don't see Sakurai agreeing to promoting predatory, scummy practices. The money it prints is acquired through preying on whales who will sink hundreds if not thousands in the game. This is achieved by analysing the human psyche and utilising whatever means available to force them to stay and pay.

I also wouldn't say it's iconic, as several had never heard of it on these boards and honestly, despite having tried many mobile games, I still have trouble recalling what it is. It felt generic to me, and the gameplay is nothing to write home about either - which is to be expected of a mobile gacha game, really. And if you want a character who can transform into a dragon, why not go with Capcom's Ryu? Or Fou-Lu if the name is an issue.

Want: 0%
As a certain youtuber with a majestic beard once said... or rather, says in almost every Mario Maker 2 video of his: "get that garbage outta here". Mobiles gacha games should either evolve or burn in the same dumpster formed by the likes of EA, Activision or Bethesda. I don't care how "cute" it visually is, it's still predatory and scummy. It's no better than NBA 2k20 or Fallout 76.

Predictions: Farmer - 9%
I'd like to think people realise we're not getting another Animal Crossing-like character, and Isabelle is an echo fighter. Farmer wouldn't bring much new and I'm loathe to say this, but Steve would be miles better.

Nominations: Riesz x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Terry satisfaction
84.39%
Was it being released the same day as the rating? Was it being the pack with the most content by far? Who knows, but whatever it was, Terry is now the DLC fighter with the highest satisfaction rating, beating Banjo-Kazooie. Terry is, without a doubt, OK.

Lara Croft
29.75% Chance, 54.21% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 31.26%

I don't see any reason to list the people with extra noms, not much has changed, so I figure you know who you are.

 

[Jomosensual]

Spoiler: Calcs

Terry satisfaction
84.39%
Was it being released the same day as the rating? Was it being the pack with the most content by far? Who knows, but whatever it was, Terry is now the DLC fighter with the highest satisfaction rating, beating Banjo-Kazooie. Terry is, without a doubt, OK.

Lara Croft
29.75% Chance, 54.21% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 31.26%

I don't see any reason to list the people with extra noms, not much has changed, so I figure you know who you are.

Where can I find all the calculations for satisfaction ratings?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Where can I find all the calculations for satisfaction ratings?

The OP hasn't been updated in ages, so I'll just post them here. I only have the ones since I'll be doing calcs, but the ones for the base game are probably on the OP.

Ken 72.48%
Incineroar 51.12%
Piranha Plant 56.60%
Spirits 46.67%
World of Light 74.93%
Joker 79.75%
Mementos 83.54%
Stage Builder 85.25%
Hero 68.57%
Banjo-Kazooie 83.09%
Terry 84.39%

 

[Jomosensual]

The OP hasn't been updated in ages, so I'll just post them here. I only have the ones since I'll be doing calcs, but the ones for the base game are probably on the OP.

Ken 72.48%
Incineroar 51.12%
Piranha Plant 56.60%
Spirits 46.67%
World of Light 74.93%
Joker 79.75%
Mementos 83.54%
Stage Builder 85.25%
Hero 68.57%
Banjo-Kazooie 83.09%
Terry 84.39%

Spirits wasn't well received? I'm surprised by that. Might be because of who was made a spirit over the mode itself I suppose.

 

[Troykv]

I'm gonna abstain voting for the Prince of DL; I don't have anything interesting to say.

Predictions:

Farming: 9.1%

Nominations:

Ryu Hayabusa x5

 

[Deleted member]

Incineroar 51.12%

Incineroar was the 2nd least satisfying thing rated huh? I wasn't around at the time, so either Grinch Leak believers were not happy about Incineroar suplexing their hopes and dreams or more people wanted Decidueye over the pro wrestling type character in Smash or maybe even a combination of both.
--------------
Dragalia Lost rep

Chance: 10%

The mobile market could actually be 1 of the largest gaming markets out there with how many people own a smartphone nowadays. It seems possible for Dragalia Lost to be in Smash in some fashion since it's a Nintendo owned IP and seems to be doing pretty damn well for itself. As far as an actual rep goes, I'm not so sure about that being a possibility. From the looks of some posts, Dragalia Lost hasn't been released in Europe. Whether if that's a matter of when and not if, Nintendo probably wants a character from a franchise that has games released globally since they have far wider appeal than those that don't. I can't really add anything else other than that.

Want: 18%

I know nothing of the series, but judging from most of the character designs in the game itself, they do have some anime girls that I might find cool. I'd probably prefer a character from this game than a lot of other mobile game franchises out there but not by that much since I don't play mobile games because of how they always try to get into my wallet with their schemes. Maybe Dragalia Lost doesn't do that or just isn't as aggressive with it as other mobile games are, but as it stands, I'd pass on Dragalia Lost unless it's an anime girl I find cool.
--------------
Predictions:
Farmer: 3.03%
--------------
Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spirits wasn't well received? I'm surprised by that. Might be because of who was made a spirit over the mode itself I suppose.

The reveal itself was also very underwhelming, even putting aside the context of that dreadful Direct, the announcement of Spirits dragged for too long and they didn't show much of substance.

 

[Sid-cada]

Dragalia Lost character

Chance - 5% - Mobile Games are a new market, and while this is Nintendo's first new mobile app IP, it's not it's most profitable. Compared to other mobile games, there's bigger names even from other Nintendo products. If there was one from mobile game, it would probably be third party at least. Combined with Sakurai being fairly pro-consumer, I don't see mobiles as likely in the first place.

Want - 25% - While I don't mind mobile games, gochas are simply another term for lootboxes in my eyes. They need to go die in a fire.


Predictions

Farmer - 4.24% - This will be interesting...


Nominations

Kunio X5

 

[Ridrool64]

Incineroar was the 2nd least satisfying thing rated huh? I wasn't around at the time, so either Grinch Leak believers were not happy about Incineroar suplexing their hopes and dreams or more people wanted Decidueye over the pro wrestling type character in Smash or maybe even a combination of both.

Also, if I remember correctly, a lot of people were disappointed that Pokémon got one of the (at the time) incredibly limited unique newcomer spots, after it already got Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur back.

 

[Troykv]

Also, if I remember correctly, a lot of people were disappointed that Pokémon got one of the (at the time) incredibly limited unique newcomer spots, after it already got Pichu, Squirtle and Ivysaur back.

Let's be fair, the people that didn't expected a new Pokémon were just deluded; it was going to happen. TPC benefits a lot of appearing in "hype the game".

 

[Ridrool64]

I personally expected the Pokémon rep to be DLC, not base game. Well it looks like I took that L.

 

[Artix]

Dragalia Lost Rep

Chance: 5%
Mobile games is something that Nintendo themselves had touched upon and while Dragalia Lost isn't as profitable as other bigger mobile games, I can definitely see it as a possibility. However, Nintendo would most likely pick someone from their other mobile games like FEH or a Granblue character over a Dragalia Lost character. Not only that, they have to face against other first-party games as well so it definitely doesn't bode well for Dragalia Lost here.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played the game long enough for me to give it a proper want rating. But if I want a mobile game rep in Smash, I'd most likely prefer someone from FEH like Fjorm instead.

Prediction:
Farmer - 6.11%

Nomination:
Ryo Hazuki x5

 

[Strider_Bond00J]

Dragalia Lost Character:

Chance: 40%
I'm willing to say that there's definitely a higher chance than most people expect and probably because it's a more recent and pretty successful IP. It could be worth inclusion as one of Nintendo's first IPs outside of their own platforms, with Dragalia Lost being available on smartphones and easily accessible.

That said, it's probably something for much later in the DLC lifecycle, not for the current fighter pass.

Want: 35%
My phone can't play Dragalia Lost, so I'm just aware of the series through fan-art and Twitter posts, but I think it'd be an interesting series to include. But probably not right now. (rushed post)

 

[DanganZilla5]

Dragalia Lost rep

Abstain. I don't know what this series is. In other words, literally what?

Predictions: Farmer - 23.67%

Noms: Geno x5

 

[FancySmash]

Dragalia Last (Because... it's FP5... OK, that was pretty bad)

Chance: 5%
As far as mobile games go, Dragalia's in an interesting spot. It's got Nintendo's support behind it, so adding a character wouldn't be to difficult at all. On the other hand, exposure to it isn't quite as high as your average Nintendo series, or the 3rd Parties we've been getting from the pass so far. Ideally, I'd see this one as a base roster pick.

Want: 50%
Again, a series I have no knowledge of. I will say, if it's a JRPG, my want will go down from that alone. Hero and Joker more than have that genre covered already.

Predictions: Farmer
Farmer from... Harvest Moon? Last I recall, Harvest Moon went through quite a legal dispute, and now it's called something else. That aside... 7%?

Nominations:
Meowth x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Dragalia Lost Rep:

Chance: 15% - For this round of DLC, Nintendo is definitely prioritizing third parties. Furthermore among these characters, a not too well known mobile character (even with Nintendo's backing) wouldn't exactly make a noticeable splash. However, since Nintendo's been putting effort in the mobile market over the past few years, I can see someone like Euden maybe being a base game character in Smash 6. It just depends on how well Dragalia holds up.

Want: 0% - I've never played the game myself so I don't have experience with it. But looking at the character designs and the gameplay it really doesn't stand out to me. Euden looks pretty vanilla design-wise and the other designs are okay but nothing eyecatching for me. Furthermore, I've never cared for Cygames' works like Granblue, and a series based around a gacha mobile game is something I'd rather no see in Smash.

Nominations:
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5

Predictions:
Farmer - 5.28%

 

[ProfPeanut]

Dragalia Lost

Chance: 20%
Mobile games are pretty big, but there's few clear-cut choices for Nintendo when there's plenty of them are that are making bank. Dragalia Lost makes a great case for itself, however - it's admirably made, doesn't simply copy-paste what works, and brings a whole new world to be explored and shown off. Since it's close to Nintendo's chest, it wouldn't cause a mess of copyrights that other potentially-greedier companies might make.

Of course, it's still kind of first-partyish enough that Nintendo might not be even looking at Dragalia Lost's direction. Being brand new also means it doesn't have as much of a legacy to back it up, although Cygames has had a good number of successes even before this game.

Want: 30%
Not a high priority for me - it's a game my phone can't run. But Cygames runs things a little better than average Japanese game industry, especially given how your typical gacha/mobile game developer acts. In a narrow list of relatively-ethical companies, Cygames stands as a pretty notable example.


Nominations
Papyrus x5

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

Abstain on dragalia lost rep since I don't know anything about it besides the name.
Predictions:Framer-23%.

 

[NintenRob]

Is anyone gonna update the title?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Is anyone gonna update the title?

That's up to either TCT or mods, so our hands are tied with that.

 

[3BitSaurus]

That's up to either TCT or mods, so our hands are tied with that.

If I was TCT, I'd update the name to an exact copy of this one, but spelling Laura Croft, just to mess with Sari . Like, bold, italics and underline on the U and everything.

Just a thought.

 

[DaUsername]

This game doesn't deserve a joke name
Chance: N/A
I can't give this a fair rating because I hate it haven't played it.
Want: 0%
Gacha garbage should stay as far away from Smash as possible. I don't care if it's owned by Nintendo, it doesn't belong.

Farmer prediction: 4%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5

Where can I find all the calculations for satisfaction ratings?

Here's the rest of them.

Satisfaction Rankings of Confirmed stuff
King K. Rool: 94.82%
Ridley: 91.21%
Inkling: 88.06%
Wolf: 87.94%
Ice Climbers: 87.92%
Pokemon Trainer: 87.12%
Snake: 85.25%
Simon Belmont: 84.59%
No Cuts: 83.20%
Richter Belmont: 74.61%
Ken 72.48%
Pichu: 72.14%
Dark Samus: 71.20%
Daisy: 69.30%
Chrom: 63.66%
Young Link: 60.14%

We're still missing Isabelle's score, though, despite the fact that we rated her 14 months ago.

 

[zipzapsparkle]

Dragalia lost

chance: 20%
want:
0% if it’s the guy that looks like Shulk
50% if it’s anyone else without a sword

I could see it happen but it doesn’t seem very likely. So far it’s the only new op on Nintendo mobile afaik. It’s not as successful as FEH or MKT but it has a loyal fan base.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

This game doesn't deserve a joke name
Chance: N/A
I can't give this a fair rating because I hate it haven't played it.
Want: 0%
Gacha garbage should stay as far away from Smash as possible. I don't care if it's owned by Nintendo, it doesn't belong.

Farmer prediction: 4%
Noms: Crash Bandicoot x5


Here's the rest of them.

We're still missing Isabelle's score, though, despite the fact that we rated her 14 months ago.

We actually have it. I just did not have it in the OP since I thought we had her in there. Was around 76% or so if I’m not mistaken I remember a lukewarm reception. Will put it in at some point this weekend/when the OP for that is next updated (so again likely this weekend).

Sorry for disappearing for over a month. A lot of personal stuff happened and I could not make this thread a priority at said time.

My family basically imploded back home. My mom relapsed twice and I have had to mediate everyone in my family while still basically telling my mom if she keeps messing up I will cut her out of my life. It was emotionally draining to say the least. Having to be the lightning rod for every persons tears and anger, having to console everyone. It made me catatonic, like I was barely living my own life. My diet deteriorated, my energy levels dropped, I fell behind in school. I’ve been playing catch up still it has been that bad. Literally another family crisis happened today. I had a terrible night last night, I didn’t sleep I was so hurt and upset. But I couldn’t even get 12 hours to focus on my own issues. I literally passed out three times today since I haven’t slept. At this point I’m numb, I’m too hurt, too broken right now. I literally kept extending my break from this thread because I didn’t want to come back and just give a 4 day long day again.

My mental health is not the lowest it’s ever been but god I feel dead right now. I will try to do the best I can in the future for the thread but worst case I can say anyone on the team can enforce the two day limit for days.

 

[GoodGrief741]

We actually have it. I just did not have it in the OP since I thought we had her in there. Was around 76% or so if I’m not mistaken I remember a lukewarm reception. Will put it in at some point this weekend/when the OP for that is next updated (so again likely this weekend).

Sorry for disappearing for over a month. A lot of personal stuff happened and I could not make this thread a priority at said time.

My family basically imploded back home. My mom relapsed twice and I have had to mediate everyone in my family while still basically telling my mom if she keeps messing up I will cut her out of my life. It was emotionally draining to say the least. Having to be the lightning rod for every persons tears and anger, having to console everyone. It made me catatonic, like I was barely living my own life. My diet deteriorated, my energy levels dropped, I fell behind in school. I’ve been playing catch up still it has been that bad. Literally another family crisis happened today. I had a terrible night last night, I didn’t sleep I was so hurt and upset. But I couldn’t even get 12 hours to focus on my own issues. I literally passed out three times today since I haven’t slept. At this point I’m numb, I’m too hurt, too broken right now. I literally kept extending my break from this thread because I didn’t want to come back and just give a 4 day long day again.

My mental health is not the lowest it’s ever been but god I feel dead right now. I will try to do the best I can in the future for the thread but worst case I can say anyone on the team can enforce the two day limit for days.

Stay strong man, you know you can count on us for anything, and I mean anything.

 

[Jomosensual]

We actually have it. I just did not have it in the OP since I thought we had her in there. Was around 76% or so if I’m not mistaken I remember a lukewarm reception. Will put it in at some point this weekend/when the OP for that is next updated (so again likely this weekend).

Sorry for disappearing for over a month. A lot of personal stuff happened and I could not make this thread a priority at said time.

My family basically imploded back home. My mom relapsed twice and I have had to mediate everyone in my family while still basically telling my mom if she keeps messing up I will cut her out of my life. It was emotionally draining to say the least. Having to be the lightning rod for every persons tears and anger, having to console everyone. It made me catatonic, like I was barely living my own life. My diet deteriorated, my energy levels dropped, I fell behind in school. I’ve been playing catch up still it has been that bad. Literally another family crisis happened today. I had a terrible night last night, I didn’t sleep I was so hurt and upset. But I couldn’t even get 12 hours to focus on my own issues. I literally passed out three times today since I haven’t slept. At this point I’m numb, I’m too hurt, too broken right now. I literally kept extending my break from this thread because I didn’t want to come back and just give a 4 day long day again.

My mental health is not the lowest it’s ever been but god I feel dead right now. I will try to do the best I can in the future for the thread but worst case I can say anyone on the team can enforce the two day limit for days.

Sorry this is happening to you man. Hope things get better soon

 

[Ninjaed]

We actually have it. I just did not have it in the OP since I thought we had her in there. Was around 76% or so if I’m not mistaken I remember a lukewarm reception. Will put it in at some point this weekend/when the OP for that is next updated (so again likely this weekend).

Sorry for disappearing for over a month. A lot of personal stuff happened and I could not make this thread a priority at said time.

My family basically imploded back home. My mom relapsed twice and I have had to mediate everyone in my family while still basically telling my mom if she keeps messing up I will cut her out of my life. It was emotionally draining to say the least. Having to be the lightning rod for every persons tears and anger, having to console everyone. It made me catatonic, like I was barely living my own life. My diet deteriorated, my energy levels dropped, I fell behind in school. I’ve been playing catch up still it has been that bad. Literally another family crisis happened today. I had a terrible night last night, I didn’t sleep I was so hurt and upset. But I couldn’t even get 12 hours to focus on my own issues. I literally passed out three times today since I haven’t slept. At this point I’m numb, I’m too hurt, too broken right now. I literally kept extending my break from this thread because I didn’t want to come back and just give a 4 day long day again.

My mental health is not the lowest it’s ever been but god I feel dead right now. I will try to do the best I can in the future for the thread but worst case I can say anyone on the team can enforce the two day limit for days.

That doesn't sound fun at all... There isn't much we, randoms on the internet, can do to help you, but I'm sure everyone here will support you anyway if you ever feel the need to.

 

[Plank08]

We doing dragalia but the title says Lara? Ok

Abstaining on dragalia cause I don’t even know what that is and Sackboy X 5

 

[Sari]

We actually have it. I just did not have it in the OP since I thought we had her in there. Was around 76% or so if I’m not mistaken I remember a lukewarm reception. Will put it in at some point this weekend/when the OP for that is next updated (so again likely this weekend).

Sorry for disappearing for over a month. A lot of personal stuff happened and I could not make this thread a priority at said time.

My family basically imploded back home. My mom relapsed twice and I have had to mediate everyone in my family while still basically telling my mom if she keeps messing up I will cut her out of my life. It was emotionally draining to say the least. Having to be the lightning rod for every persons tears and anger, having to console everyone. It made me catatonic, like I was barely living my own life. My diet deteriorated, my energy levels dropped, I fell behind in school. I’ve been playing catch up still it has been that bad. Literally another family crisis happened today. I had a terrible night last night, I didn’t sleep I was so hurt and upset. But I couldn’t even get 12 hours to focus on my own issues. I literally passed out three times today since I haven’t slept. At this point I’m numb, I’m too hurt, too broken right now. I literally kept extending my break from this thread because I didn’t want to come back and just give a 4 day long day again.

My mental health is not the lowest it’s ever been but god I feel dead right now. I will try to do the best I can in the future for the thread but worst case I can say anyone on the team can enforce the two day limit for days.

I know I'm late but I think I speak for everyone in that I wish you a good recovery. Also I hope the people who have made jokes about how slow this thread has been going now realize why its been like this. There are more important things in life than a forum game for a party game.

----------

I will end the day now.

Rate Farmer from Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons

Predict Concept: League of Legends rep

----------

Some songs to get into the Harvest Moon mood:

Spoiler: Harvest Moon Music

 

[Ornl]

Farmer - Story of Seasons/Harvest Moon
... and Rune Factory ?
Want : I feel good with the idea of a new DLC Fighter who, with his level and a playful way, could raise awareness about the nonviolence, the care of other, the degrowth, the permaculture and to the joy of life.
Chance : 35%

Legitimacy

- The series was born on Nintendo, with 5 first games on Nintendo.
- The series have 31 exclusive games at Nintendo. 5 on Switch.
Marvelous Series: 18 exclusive games at Nintendo. 1 on Switch. Natsume series: 2 exclusive games at Nintendo. 1 other on Switch. Rune Factory: 7 exclusive games at Nintendo. 2 on Switch. Other spin-offs: 4 exclusive games at Nintendo. 1 on Switch.
- There are 3 Mario power up in Story of Seasons (2014-2015) ; 4 Mario Costumes in Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns (2016-2017).
- There is additional Daemon X Machina (Marvelous) content in Ultimate. This choice seems very strange to me. There are really many other series that could have Spirits instead of Daemon X Machina. I dont' understand :S

- Farmer can have a female alt, unlike all the previous third party Fighters.
- Farmer can have an original gameplay, invoking plants and animals, with a new potential of fun.
- Like Joker, Hero (without leak) and Terry, Farmer is "never saw it coming".

The series and Japanese magazines
Intro - There are information based on the Nintendo DREAM and Famitsu magazines, although they aren't completely representative. In Japan, Nintendo DREAM is the largest Nintendo magazine, and Famitsu is the largest video game magazine, and they are the most representative of the communities of targeted players. If someone wants to know the japan trends of a character or a series, then these magazines are possible tool to measure the importance.
With Famitsu's polls, for example, it would have been easy to predict Persona 5 and Dragon Quest series.

Spoiler: Nintendo DREAM promotes Marvelous.

Nintendo DREAM is a Nintendo video game magazine published in Japan. There are several recurring chapters:
- Animal Crossing: mail and artisanal creations of readers,
- Mario: community and promotion space about Mario,
- Zelda: community and folder space about Zelda,
- Kirby: community space and products about Kirby,
- Fire Emblem: community space about Fire Emblem,
- Mother: community space about Mother,
- Pokémon: information about Pokémon,
- Capcomania: information about Capcom,
- Sega & Friends: information about Sega,
- KONAMI channel: information about KONAMI with corner about Power Pro series,
- Bandai Namco Museum: information about Bamco,
- Macanavi Marvelous AQL Navigation: information about Marvelous and comics about Rune Factory series,
- Level 5 Revolution: information about Level 5 and corner by Takuzo Nagano (designer).

Spoiler: Nintendo DREAM readers demand a new game (Top 15 Most wanted games)

- Dec 2019 : Rune Factory 5 8th (7.9%), Story of Seasons (new work) 15th (2.9%).
- Nov 2019 : Rune Factory 5 6th (11.1%), Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 7th (9.2%), Story of Seasons (new work) 10th (5.4%).
- Oct 2019 : Rune Factory 5 7th (9.4%), Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 9th (7.9%).
- Sept 2019 : Story of Seasons (new work) 8th (7.8%), Rune Factory 4 9th (5.2%), Rune Factory 5 13th (3.7%).
- Aug 2019 : Rune Factory 4 6th, Rune Factory 5 9th, Story of Seasons (new work) 11th.
- April 2019 : Rune Factory 4 6th, Rune Factory 5 7th, Story of Seasons (new work) 13th.
****4 wishes in one top 15****
- July 2019 : Rune Factory 4 6th, Rune Factory 5 8th, Story of Seasons (new work) 10th, Story of Seasons Doraemon 15th.
- May 2019 : Rune Factory 4 5th, Rune Factory 5 6th, Story of Seasons (new work) 8th, Story of Seasons Doraemon 14th.

Spoiler: Famitsu readers want the series (Top 30 Most wanted games)

- Nov 10 2019 : Rune Factory 5 17th.
- Nov 3 2019 : Rune Factory 5 14th.
- Oct 27 2019 : Rune Factory 5 25th.
- Oct 20 2019 : Rune Factory 5 23th, Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 28th.
- Oct 13 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 21th, Rune Factory 5 24th.
- Oct 8 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 22th, Rune Factory 5 27th.
- Sept 29 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 21th, Rune Factory 5 22th.
- Sept 22 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 27th.
- Sept 15 2019 : Rune Factory 5 25th, Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 27th.
- Sept 8 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 22th, Rune Factory 5 27th.
- Sept 1 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 23th, Rune Factory 5 25th.
- Aug 25 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 24th, Rune Factory 5 26th.
- Aug 11 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 24th, Rune Factory 5 26th.
- Aug 4 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 19th, Rune Factory 5 25th.
- July 28 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 17th, Rune Factory 5 25th.

Spoiler: Famitsu readers waiting for Rune Factory (Top 12 Most wanted Switch games)

- Oct. 31st to Nov. 6th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 5th.
- Oct. 24th to 30th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 7th.
- Oct. 17th to 23th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 5th.
- Oct. 10th to 16th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 8th.
- Oct. 3rd to 9th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 8th.
- Sept. 26th to Oct. 2nd 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 8th, Rune Factory 5 9th.
- Sept. 19th to 25th 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 8th, Rune Factory 5 10th.
- Sept. 12th to 18th 2019 : Rune Factory 5 9th, Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 10th.
- Sept. 5th to 11th 2019 : Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town 11th, Rune Factory 5 12th.

Popularity ranking according to Google Trends
Intro - There are comparisons of third-party series based from Google searches, although the result isn't enough and the comparison criteria aren't always fair. Google is the most used search engine in the US, Europe and Japan (+90%), and is therefore mainly representative of searches on the web. A Google search also makes something unknown become known. Care about something and discover something contribute to making popular this thing. Like or don't like a series have the same result to advance the series in the popular culture. If someone wants to know the trends of a character or a series, then Google Trends is the best possible tool (or the least worst) to measure trends, although the method is less effective about series that are dead (like Space Invaders for example).
With Google Trends, it would have been easy to predict SMT/Persona, Dragon Quest and, to a lesser extent, The King of Fighters.

Spoiler: In the world

Minecraft > Overwatch > Final Fantasy > Halo > Sonic / Resident Evil > Assassin's Creed > Pac-Man > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Souls > UNDERTALE / Kingdom Hearts > DOOM > Metal Gear > Street Fighter > Megaman / Tomb Raider > Tekken > SimCity > Digimon > The King of Fighters > Tales of > Touhou Project > The Elder Scrolls / Persona / Devil May Cry / Yo-kai Watch > Harvest Moon > Crash Bandicoot > Dynasty Warriors > Bomberman > Tamagotchi > Castlevania > Professor Layton > Yakuza > SoulCalibur > Rayman > Dead or Alive / Ace Attorney > Phantasy Star > Ninja Gaiden > Ys > Space Invaders / Suikoden > Disgaea / Guilty Gear > Project Zero > Okami > Bayonetta > NieR > Puyo Puyo > Raving Rabbids > Bubble Bobble > Mystery Dungeon > Shovel Knight > Katamari > Samurai Shodown > Banjo-Kazooie > Virtua Fighter > Sakura Wars > No More Heroes / Momotaro Dentetsu > The Tower of Druaga > Ganbare Goemon / Shantae > Street Gangs > Art of Fighting.

Spoiler: In Japan

Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Yo-kai Watch > Minecraft > Final Fantasy > Touhou Project > Tales of > Resident Evil > Metal Gear / Persona > Yakuza > Dynasty Warriors / Kingdom Hearts > Megaman / Tekken > Puyo Puyo > Overwatch > Tamagotchi > Ace Attorney > Devil May Cry > Phantasy Star > Street Fighter > Disgaea > Harvest Moon / Digimon > Project Zero > UNDERTALE > Professor Layton > Suikoden > Assassin's Creed > NieR > The King of Fighters / Guilty Gear / Mystery Dungeon: Shiren the Wanderer > SimCity > Bayonetta / Ys > Sakura Wars > Sonic > Momotaro Dentetsu > Okami > Bomberman / Dead or Alive > Castlevania > Souls > Halo > Pac-Man > Tomb Raider > Virtua Fighter / Tower of Druaga / Samurai Shodown / DOOM / SoulCalibur > Ninja Gaiden > Crash Bandicoot > Space Invaders > Ganbare Goemon > The Elder Scrolls > Puzzle Bobble > No More Heroes > Shantae / Street Gangs > Raving Rabbids > Rayman > Shovel Knight > Katamari > Banjo-Kazooie / Art of Fighting.

Spoiler: Eastern 3rd party series ranking by averaging world / japanese results

Final Fantasy > Dragon Quest > Monster Hunter > Resident Evil > Kingdom Hearts
> Metal Gear > Yo-kai Watch
> Tales / Touhou Project
> Megaman > Tekken > Persona > Street Fighter
> UNDERTALE > Dynasty Warriors
> Sonic > Digimon > Devil May Cry > Yakuza > Tamagotchi > ***Harvest Moon***
> The King of Fighters / Pac-Man > SimCity > Souls > Ace Attorney > Phantasy Star > Professor Layton > Tomb Raider / Puyo Puyo / Disgaea / Suikoden
> Project Zero / Bomberman > Castlevania / Guilty Gear > Ys > Dead or Alive > NieR
> Bayonetta / Mystery Dungeon / SoulCalibur > Ōkami > Ninja Gaiden > Sakura Wars > Space Invaders > Momotaro Dentetsu
Samurai Shodown > Virtua Fighter > The Tower of Druaga / Bubble Bobble
> Shovel Knight > Ganbare Goemon / No More Heroes > Katamari
> Banjo-Kazooie > Shantae > The Art of Fighting

Spoiler: Mini-top with 4 "minor" series

Several minor series won't have a Fighter. One of the biggest losing companies is Konami, who doesn't have Bomberman, Goemon, Frogger... as Fighters. This mini-top confronts the 3 "minor series" Ace Attorney, Professor Layton and Harvest Moon to determine, according to Google Trends, which would be more legitimate than Bomberman, already represented with an Assist Trophee.
- All the world : Bomberman 43, Harvest Moon 42, Professor Layton 24, Ace Attorney 15. This is almost equal for Harvest Moon.
- Harvest Moon is top 1 in Austria, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Canada, U.S.A, Australia, New Zealand, China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam.
- Harvest Moon is top 2 after Ace Attorney in Japan.
- Harvest Moon is top 2 after Professor Layton in United Kingdoms, Ireland.
- Harvest Moon is top 2 after Bomberman in Sud America (Brasil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Venezuela...) and India.

 

[SKX31]

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I will end the day now.

Rate Farmer from Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons

Predict Concept: League of Legends rep

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Some songs to get into the Harvest Moon mood:

Spoiler: Harvest Moon Music

Sorry, but this Scythe is not yours. You'll get your chance soon though (Farmer):

Chance: 0.5 % for Ultimate's DLC, 35 % for Smash 6

I have not been following Harvest Moon, at all. But from all accounts it doesn't look like close to a priority for Ultimate's DLC. Edit: While Natsume owns it, it's really awfully crowded and might be overshadowed by other picks unfairly (whether Sakurai leans into other choices or Nintendo wants something else). Even if you count is as a Marvelous series, my view has not changed because the Farm has competition from Travis Touchdown. It smells like Smash 6 material.

Still, I won't fully count out the Farmer. (S)He fits Sakurai's love for weird picks, and has potentially a couple unique weapons to use. Sure, Villager has an axe, but it's only for one move. Meanwhile, not only does the Farmer have an entire game series to choose from, the image of the Farmer / Peasant is known to all (both in history and the present day*). In case the games doesn't have for example an Up-B move one could pull an IRL tool. So moveset-wise it should be no issue at all.

So I'm calling HM as much more likely for next game.

Want: ???

Never played, but the moveset could be really interesting and unique honestly. The King of Evil getting slapped around by a Peasant is a really funny image too, so bonus points for that.

Predictions: Concept: League of Legends rep 2,4 % (expecting a few high schores, and a lot of low ones)

Noms: Thrall x5

*(One historical quirk is that 90 % or more of a given country were peasants / farmers, at least up to 1800 or so when industrilasation began to take off.)

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Abstaining from Farmer

League of Legends rep: 1.74%

Untitled Goose x5

TCT~Phantom Stay strong. I highly recommend listening to meditation videos to relax.