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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

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Jelly Candy Crush Saga Girl

Chance: 8%

So here we have the character from a game that's similar to Tetris but with lore and actual characters. We also know it's got the popularity to back up its inclusion given it's got a crossover with Tetris and the most recent Puyo Puyo title was released just last year. However, there's also that thing about the creator not wanting Puyo Puyo in a Fighting Game. Even though everyone goes back on their words, 2017 wasn't exactly a long time ago. Negotiations for Arle in Smash would've probably been rejected for the current Fighter Pass since the dealings for DLC took place in 2018. Of course, anyone could change their minds and dealings in 2019 or 2020 could be different, but the creator not wanting a character in a fighting game, despite Smash being a game for good boys and girls, is pretty damning to me. I'm sure Sakurai would also respect the creator's choice for keeping Arle out of Smash as well even if he really wanted to put Arle in Smash.

Want: 30%

I'm more interested in a Puyo Puyo stage than Arle herself. She isn't someone I care about, but I would like to see a Puyo Puyo stage since a Tetris stage isn't happening anytime soon. She kinda ranks up there with Reimu for series where I don't care about the characters in Smash but would like to see almost everything else they'd bring to the table, except I probably prefer a Bullet Hell stage because it sounds like a beautiful disaster with how much **** is thrown at everybody over a Puyo Puyo board. Plus, of all the Sega characters out there, Aiai and Kiryu are the only 2 I'd like to see in Smash over Arle.
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Predictions:
Valve rep: 2.33%

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Noms:
Francis York Morgan x5
 

Plank08

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You do realize that the thread is called "Rate their chances", and not "Abstain on like 95% of all characters rated to just drop your nominations"?
I mean...I’m allowed to do what I want? It’s just a majority of these characters I have no care for.
 
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ProfPeanut

Smash Ace
Joined
Oct 1, 2008
Messages
727
Arle Nadj~yon

Chance: 32%->1%->35%->65%
Biggest boon for Arle right now? Tetriminos getting practically deconfirmed, leaving her as the next in line for a proper puzzle game rep. With the blocks spirited away until further notice and Lip stuck in spirit/costume country, her name's going to float to the top of any discussion regarding puzzle game representation.

Much stronger, however, is the Fighters Pass' now well-established preference Japanese franchises that, while full of great games and popular in certain places, have historically struggled to break out into the global mainstream despite their efforts. I do believe that Terry's inclusion is similarly a huge boon for Arle, precisely because Puyo Puyo is in a similar boat as Fatal Fury/King of Fighters - a breakout heyday that changed the genre forever, a slump wherein the West failed to latch onto the franchise in favor of other imports, and a modern effort to clean itself up and be relevant again. As long as Nintendo is still looking in that general direction, Arle's going to have a great shot of getting in even if she doesn't make it as FP#5.

Super Puyo Puyo 2 was also bundled into those SNES games you get with Nintendo Online - untranslated, no less. Might just be for all Puyo Puyo fans in Japan, of course. Might.

Want: 82%->50%->80%->75%
I might not have a real personal attachment to a franchise I mostly know through internet webpages and the Puyo Puyo Tetris demo, but she's got a ton of things that I'd want out of a newcomer. Great moveset potential, a long history, an unrepresented aesthetic, and a style of play that could be wholly unique if translated into Smash. At the very worst, Arle might end up as a sassy anime girl, but that's a stereotype that Smash, oddly enough, does have an opening for.


Nominations
Thrall x5
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
I mean...I’m allowed to do what I want? It’s just a majority of these characters I have no care for.
Well sure but try to play the game at least a bit. If you don't care, give them 0% want instead of abstaining, and give your perceived chances that they'll appear. Just 2 sentences is enough. Also, I'm not sure your nominations are even taken into account.

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 1%
Wunderwaft said a lot of what I wanted to say already so there isn't much I can add... The article may be from 2017 but negotiations for these characters had been underway since at least 2018, if not 2017. So that makes the article quite relevant, not to mention even words are carefully picked so that it offends no one and is suitable to everyone. There's a lot of care that goes into that series, its image for its audience, so being associated with a fighting game? When one was already suggested and promptly nipped in the bud? I can't see it.

Then there's the competition. You have AiAi (though I doubt he'd be in Smash), Kiryu Kazuma (from Yakuza), Sakura Shinguji (from Sakura Wars), another Sonic rep like Eggman... and of course, the one and only: Segata Sanshiro!! It'd be weird to see him without fawning over Sakura though. Speaking of whom, Project Sakura Wars is coming soon, which is Sega's attempt at reviving the series. They've also been pushing for Yakuza as well these last years.

That aside, even though competition plays a part, the major factor to my score is the article and the thought process behind developing the games, which I find pretty damning evidence of her non-inclusion.

Want: 30%
Kind of a tentative score. I'd be quite intrigued in how Arle could be implemented, but there are many other characters I want before her who have crazy potential for fun movesets.

Predictions: Valve rep - 17%
With the scores a LoL rep got, I'd guess a Valve rep would be around the same.

Nominations: Kiryu Kazuma x5 (next one will either be Segata Sanshiro or Sakura Shinguji - probably Segata first though)
 
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Perkilator

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 50%
We technically have three SEGA reps by way of SEGA owning ATLUS, but who knows? SEGA seems to wanna push Puyo Puyo as much as possible.

Want: 90%
There are other characters I want more than Arle, to be fair, but she's simply too cute and too full of potential for me to say no to her.


Valve Prediction: 0%
I'd have to have a valve stuck in my head to think Valve will get a rep just because of their recent relevance.


Nom: Claude Rerate x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Well sure but try to play the game at least a bit. If you don't care, give them 0% want instead of abstaining, and give your perceived chances that they'll appear. Just 2 sentences is enough. Also, I'm not sure your nominations are even taken into account.
For the record, while participation is always encouraged, nothing in the rules forbids abstaining near-daily to get noms and predictions in. And of course I'm taking his nominations into account, why wouldn't I?
 

Plank08

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 6, 2019
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Well sure but try to play the game at least a bit. If you don't care, give them 0% want instead of abstaining, and give your perceived chances that they'll appear. Just 2 sentences is enough. Also, I'm not sure your nominations are even taken into account.

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 1%
Wunderwaft said a lot of what I wanted to say already so there isn't much I can add... The article may be from 2017 but negotiations for these characters had been underway since at least 2018, if not 2017. So that makes the article quite relevant, not to mention even words are carefully picked so that it offends no one and is suitable to everyone. There's a lot of care that goes into that series, its image for its audience, so being associated with a fighting game? When one was already suggested and promptly nipped in the bud? I can't see it.

Then there's the competition. You have AiAi (though I doubt he'd be in Smash), Kiryu Kazuma (from Yakuza), Sakura Shinguji (from Sakura Wars), another Sonic rep like Eggman... and of course, the one and only: Segata Sanshiro!! It'd be weird to see him without fawning over Sakura though. Speaking of whom, Project Sakura Wars is coming soon, which is Sega's attempt at reviving the series. They've also been pushing for Yakuza as well these last years.

That aside, even though competition plays a part, the major factor to my score is the article and the thought process behind developing the games, which I find pretty damning evidence of her non-inclusion.

Want: 30%
Kind of a tentative score. I'd be quite intrigued in how Arle could be implemented, but there are many other characters I want before her who have crazy potential for fun movesets.

Predictions: Valve rep - 17%
With the scores a LoL rep got, I'd guess a Valve rep would be around the same.

Nominations: Kiryu Kazuma x5 (next one will either be Segata Sanshiro or Sakura Shinguji - probably Segata first though)
Alright fair enough
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
One Mean Bean

Chance: 10%
I'm much less bullish on her chances than the rest of the thread, clearly. Many reasons for that.

First, the positives. Puyo Puyo is huge in Japan, and decently recognizable in the West. Arle herself might be an obscure character over here, but I'm of the opinion that that doesn't matter as long as the franchise itself is known. Puyo Puyo has Nintendo history. And within its genre Puyo Puyo has little competition.

Now, the negatives. I honestly don't think we'll get another Sega character post-Pass. I don't know, I feel like between new companies, and existing companies like Square Enix and Capcom that have so much to bring to the table, Sega's gonna sit it out. Even if Sega were to get a second character, I think Puyo Puyo faces tough competition from a second Sonic character and Yakuza's Kiryu. Certainly not insurmountable competition, but strong enough to not be a frontrunner.

Finally there's that recently resurfaced statement from the franchise producer(? Director?) saying that characters from Puyo Puyo ain't allowed to fight. That might have changed in the years since, or Smash might be an exception, but we've got nothing pointing to those possibilities. And it's a pretty damning statement.

Want: 0%
I'd be perfectly fine with Arle getting in, I feel like Puyo Puyo's earned it. But I'm a Lip fan, and I need any advantage I can get.

Also Arle Nadja is a terribly stupid name.

Noms: First-parties x5
Valve rep prediction: people will overrate this given the recent happenings. 38%
 

3BitSaurus

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If I may, I'd like to bring a point of discussion regarding something I've been seeing quite a bit in the ratings for the past two characters:

What do people see as likely in another Sonic character? I'm just wondering because AFAIK, anyone that isn't Shadow as an Echo is really unlikely actually. And even that option may not get a chance unless we get Echo DLC, so... is there anything I'm missing?
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Ninten x125
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x125
9-Volt x120
Rundas x115
The Horrible Goose (Untitled Goose Game) x115
Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass x115
Riesz (Mana) x110
Boss: Kracko x110

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105
Frogger x105
[Rerate] Steve x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
[Rerate] Geno x95
Concept: Any grass-type starter x93
Sol Badguy x90
Thrall (Warcraft) x90
Glover x85
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x85
Concept: No more stages beyond the Pass x85
[Rerate] Quote x82
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x80
Ryo Hazuki x80
[Rerate] Sora x76
Proto Man x75
Francis York Morgan x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Papyrus x66
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Sackboy x58
Decidueye x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Reporter & Wrestler x50
[Rerate] Bandana Dee x45
Concept: Any new Xenoblade character x45
[Rerate] Heihachi x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
[Rerate] Shadow the Hedgehog x35
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x35
[Rerate] Dante x32
Akira Howard x30
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x30
Earthworm Jim x28
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x25
Kunio (River City) x25

Under 25

Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x22
Meowth x22
[Rerate] Claude von Riegan x20
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x20
King Boo x19
Chun-Li x16
The Blob (De Blob) x15
[Rerate] Rayman x15
Urbosa x15
Giygas x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo of K. Rool x10
[Rerate] Doomguy x10
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x10
Kazuma Kiryu x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x9
Rival Pokémon Trainer x7
[Rerate] Tetromino x5
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Black Shadow x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Freddy Fazbear x2

Concept: First-parties after the Fighter Pass breaks into the top seven, racing past Riesz and Boss: Kracko and tying with Rundas and the Horrible Goose for fourth place. Riesz and Boss: Kracko are now tied for seventh.

Lloyd Irving and Kunio fight their way out of the under 25 club.

If I may, I'd like to bring a point of discussion regarding something I've been seeing quite a bit in the ratings for the past two characters:

What do people see as likely in another Sonic character? I'm just wondering because AFAIK, anyone that isn't Shadow as an Echo is really unlikely actually. And even that option may not get a chance unless we get Echo DLC, so... is there anything I'm missing?
Sonic is one of the most iconic franchises of all time, with a cast that's full of characters that are famous and have tons of moveset potential. Common sense dictates that if one third party franchise would get a ton of characters, that would be Sonic.

Sure, Sakurai doesn't necessarily abide by the rules of common sense, but it's still one of the safest bets.

I don't see how anyone that isn't Shadow as an Echo is unlikely, though.
 

3BitSaurus

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Nowhere (no, not the Islands)
Sonic is one of the most iconic franchises of all time, with a cast that's full of characters that are famous and have tons of moveset potential. Common sense dictates that if one third party franchise would get a ton of characters, that would be Sonic.

Sure, Sakurai doesn't necessarily abide by the rules of common sense, but it's still one of the safest bets.

I don't see how anyone that isn't Shadow as an Echo is unlikely, though.
Oh, I have no doubts about that, but... why would we get another unique fighter from a third party franchise that's already in the game, though? Sure, there's no rule in place preventing that from happening, but there's also nothing to back up that it would, especially considering how most of the popular characters are Spirits and the kind of content DLC characters are bringing.

Like... it's not outright impossible, but I think people are giving that option way too much credit compared to the likes of Puyo and Yakuza, tbh.
 

Ridrool64

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Messages
1,398
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New Jersey
Without reading others, I'm going to just post my thoughts on what Arle's looking like right now, but rather than restate my points, I'm going to take a few moments to step back and look at the situation:

So now I need to discuss why Arle is once again a serious possibility. After all, she is not only my most wanted new Fighter for the game but it is also by a drastic, cosmic gap between her and Crash. So, I need to explain my logic in a way that makes sense, but also takes into account my bias and me possibly seeing things that aren't there. Bear in mind, I don't think she's on the same level as Doomguy, Crash, Geno, Waluigi or Ryu or anybody else, but I do think she is one of the strongest contenders so far. I would put her in the top 24 at least, though the highest I'd go is top 10, as the strongest SEGA character, strongest Compile character (though that company is dead, and even counting Heart her only real threat is Neptune, who I can now say isn't as popular), and between her, Lara Croft, Jill Valentine, Shantae and Reimu is one of the top 5 strongest female candidates out of the third parties. Factoring in Dixie Kong, Elma, and other first party female candidates, I'm not quite sure where she ranks among those.
  1. Puyo Puyo has one of the largest audiences that does not overlap with not only no character currently on the DLC roster, no newcomers to Smash Ultimate in general, but outright nobody on the roster. Puyo Puyo has a unique combination of gameplay and character focus that combine to create a totally unique fanbase that, while there is no doubt people who would purchase both exist, the closest we get on the gameplay front, Dr. Mario, fails to provide a compelling cast of characters (beyond Dr. Mario World, which is also a gacha game and still not that focused on a set of character interactions like Puyo is, it just has a big roster).
    1. I would say no roster overlap, she is only beaten by Master Chief, Steve, Doom Slayer, and RE characters. No DLC overlap, that's a fair bit more that beat her. Fortunately she doesn't compete with them! They not only come from different companies but also have their own sets of individual styles and games!
  2. Arle provides something visually distinctive and functionally distinctive that cannot be replicated by anybody in the roster. That is, the mechanics of Puyo Puyo, such as chaining or Puyo generation in general. These give her something that allow her to stick out from the rest of the crowd, being something fresh and unique to Smash. For other things she can do, see her magical spells (which is also still very rare) and her pet Carbuncle, and while those are not as unique, they still would be very different from how others do them. This doesn't even take into account the things she can do in Madou Monogatari because I do not believe SEGA would permit that sort of content: with it, hoo boy.
  3. The weight has been lifted. The confirmation of More DLC has eradicated the idea that Joker has taken the only spot she could have had, regardless of truth to that statement. Every second character from a company may now rest easy, for beyond the pass anything is possible. As a corollary, the status of third parties remains yet to be seen, so I am acting off the assumption that while stages will slow down, they will not stop.
  4. Arle remains one of Japan's largest fan wants, though exact data cannot be provided. She might not be top dog in general, or even out of third parties alone, but I'm pretty sure there's a reason they didn't release Bayonetta's Japanese results as far back as Smash 4's ballot era: unlike in America and Europe, where her results as top 5 and number 1 respectively were revealed, her Japanese results were not, implying another SEGA character beat her and they couldn't pull the wool over their home country's eyes.
  5. With how much promotion Puyo Puyo has been getting in the west lately, it could be dismissed as a coincidence or the build up to something less. May I present the launch of SNES Online into this thread. SNES Online launched worldwide with one peculiar game. That game is Super Puyo Puyo 2. Not Kirby's Avalanche. Now why is this important, you may ask? SEGA continually insists on giving the west Mean Bean at nearly any opportunity. In fact, the only time I can think of they didn't substitute Mean Bean for Puyo 1 was very recently, the SEGA Ages port on Switch, and even more recently than that was the Genesis Mini which subs out Puyo Puyo 2 for Mean Bean Machine (and Puyo 1, but still). And on the Wii Virtual Console, you could not get Puyo 1. Only Kirby's Avalanche and Mean Bean Machine (as well as Puyo 2), though now that it's defunct it's a moot point. On the 3DS Virtual Console, we only got the Game Gear version of Mean Bean Machine, while Japan got not one, not two, not three, not four, but FIVE games that had Puyo Puyo involved. So I think the fact that we did not get Kirby's Avalanche as a substitute for Puyo Puyo 2 means something.
  6. Speaking of the west... let's just say my (Arle propaganda-- I mean, support) Twitter is approaching 300 followers. That's not that cool on paper, but I am struggling to get the attention of Puyo fans at large and I have 265 as of this writing. That's a nice, if somewhat small audience who would pay for her, even outside of the country she would attract the attention from... and it's not even a fraction of the English fanbase. I have like, not even 1% of the Japanese fanbase covered.
  7. Let's just say she's got legacy covered. A bunch of games that were made tried to capture the hype of Puyo Puyo 2 when it first launched in arcades: Dr. Mario 64 and Puzzle League in general take more than a few cues from Puyo Puyo games, such as casts of characters that play off each other in cutscenes. Puyo Puyo 2's arcade release was extremely popular, and if Terry is anything to go by, sometimes that's all you need. Considering Hero, Banjo and Terry all got in due to legacy, even when Banjo isn't very relevant, somebody who IS is likely to get a lot of focus.
  8. Isn't it kinda strange how SEGA both passed up new series as Mii Costumes and an Arle assist? No, instead we have Akira and purely Persona and Sonic Mii Costumes. Doesn't seem consistent with how much they've been pushing Puyo... which is exactly the same as how Square-Enix have been pushing Dragon Quest in the West. Which ended up leading up to Hero.
All these points together paint a picture in my eyes, and they don't rely on a leak or a theory (companion is dead, Terry took her color, and both of them related to the pass, costume theory is dead) to make it happen.

TLDR: Arle's not like anybody on the roster both series and fighter wise, isn't pressured by Joker, is big in Japan, is getting pushed in the west, to notable success, and has a lot of legacy. And yet has nothing to show for it yet, while a similar series Dragon Quest has gotten that push.

I think the writing is on the wall. It's not impossible I'm looking too deep into things, but. I think the writing is on the wall.
If you’re looking for music, well here’s her theme song in various versions. And some extra versions, such as her current (Japanese) actress, Mie Sonozaki, singing it or the main menu theme of Puyo Puyo eSports I mean Champions.


Who the hell is Arle? What’s Puyo Puyo? What was that about a “Madou Monogatari”? What the hell can she do?
Arle Nadja is the main character of both of these franchises, former in the latter case. As far as I’m concerned, she’s the Mario/Ryu/Cloud of Puzzle games, specifically Match-3 type, and that’s not an exaggeration. (Okay, it might kinda be an exaggeration).


She is a 16 year old girl who lives in a world of magical creatures, this isn’t that special. Although the magical creatures in this world, like a dragon woman named Draco Centauros, an alaskan pollock with human limbs called Suketoudara, a skeleton obsessed with tea known as Skeleton T, and many more, have more-or-less just as much clout and relevance as the regular people. Arle has been a magician ever since the tender age of 5, passing an extremely dangerous test that makes you ask “why the **** is a 5 year old doing this?”, including seeing her classmates melt and fighting demons. She’s got a kind heart and innocent soul when you haven’t gotten on her nerves, as seen in games where she’s a young girl or has gotten away from the insanity of her world and met new faces, though if you do end up getting on Arle’s nerves she is not afraid to get snarky and critical, especially when she has lost her adorable pet Carbuncle (more below). She’s the sanest member of the original set, and is still one of the most sane characters in the cast.


Her magical talent is spread across a massive variety of spells. She’s a warlock, through and through. A comprehensive list of her magic spells can be found here, though it’s in Japanese and you’ll need to translate it. Most of it is in katakana, so it is the English word directly written in English. I’ll put some of the more memorable and iconic spells in parenthesis. Magic isn’t all she can do, but it is by far the most prominent of her abilities. She’s this powerful for a reason, but it’s outside the scope of this introductory sheet.


  1. Fire elemental magic, such as launching Fireballs. (Fireball)
  2. Ice elemental magic, such as forming storms of ice. (Ice Storm)
  3. Electricity magic, such as lightning bolts from her hands. (Thunder)
  4. Magic that makes her own magic even more powerful, though it causes a stutter every time she uses it. (Diacute)
  5. Light elemental magic, such as beams that have the power of the heavens. (Heaven’s Ray)
  6. Status ailment inflicting magic, which can cause sleep (Heedon), reduce intelligence (Mind Blast/Brain Dumbed), or more.
  7. Defensive magic, such as a spell that can reflect enemy attacks (Revia).
  8. Various other spells, such as Judgement/Jugem, a very powerful magic attack, Warp, which can teleport her, Ruipanko, which can do various things, including making her a powerful protective barrier, Owanimo, which is the catalyst for the Puyo matches, and Healing, which can restore her HP.
  9. Bayoeen deserves its own section. As by far the most memorable and notable spell in her library, there is nary a game in which she can’t use it. It is, in most Madou games, a paralysis spell that keeps the enemy from moving. In Puyo Puyo, and at least Saturn Madou, it is her most powerful attack, and a maneuver that takes many incarnations.
    1. A storm of flowers, as seen in every Sega-era Puyo game, like in Madou Monogatari.
    2. A burst attack emanating from Arle herself. This is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo 4, as well as Saturn Madou before the latter becomes a storm of Garbage Puyo.
    3. A toss up of cosmic objects, which is how it’s depicted in Puyo Puyo SUN.

She has a pet… rabbit… called Carbuncle, who used to be the pet of Satan, lord of hell. Carbuncle has a gem in his head that can fire lasers, and a long tongue that is also prehensile. If Arle and Carbuncle have any three things in common, it’s their magic (seemingly, Carbuncle can do every spell that Arle can in most games he’s playable), their love of curry, and having mixed at best feelings on Satan. If I have to talk about any of the major Puyo cast, it’s gotta be Satan, since he’s (for a very complicated reason that is beyond the scope of this introductory guide) got the hots for Arle, who wants no part of whatever goofy scheme he’s cooked up to win her over. He used to be the main antagonist of the series, though he’s rarely, if ever, a bad guy, and these days is more often helpful than antagonistic.


Arle’s history goes as far back as 1989, 30 years ago, but it’s split across two different game series. Madou Monogatari, the first of these game series, and the parent of the second one, is an RPG that is only connected based on the characters. The gameplay traditionally plays like a dungeon crawler, and the gimmick is that instead of numbers, you have to use Arle’s expression to determine how healthy she is (something that is recurring throughout Puyo, from Madou Monogatari 2 all the way to Puyo Puyo Chronicle, is that characters react to how well they’re doing or if they’re about to die), though later games play like a more traditional JRPG with overworld movement and visible statistics. The primary reason to play them is for the characters, mostly. I said that Arle is the former main character of Madou Monogatari: that series isn’t owned by SEGA, but by Compile Heart, the successor to the original Compile that created both. The series has moved on without its former cast, and created a new one to take its place.


The more famous of the two, and a spinoff of the Madou Monogatari franchise, Puyo Puyo was born in the gaming world in the year 1991. Two slime creatures, in a pair, known as Puyo, fall from the sky. Your task is to make your opponent top out while making sure that you don’t yourself, though there have been several changes to the rules over the years, and all of them are treated as separate modes. Initially, it was little more than a rip-off of Dr. Mario (self admitted by the creator), with two features: Endless, and Mission Mode. But when it got a port to Arcades, it got a story mode and multiplayer: the multiplayer made the series a Japanese sensation, though it wouldn’t do so yet: still, Compile had a working formula on their hands, and all they had to do was perfect it. And, in Puyo Puyo 2 (1994), they did. With new mechanics such as neutralizing incoming garbage, All Clears that gave you more attack power, and quality of life fixes such as double rotation and two piece preview, the series hit the big time with this game, quickly establishing Compile as one of the leaders of the arcade market. To this day, the ruleset of Puyo Puyo 2 is the competitive standard, and it is still common to see Puyo tournaments officially hosted by SEGA (in Japan).


Now is the time to address the not so noble things, such as the lack of unaltered releases and the death of Compile. Back in the 90’s, video games were still seen as a boy’s material in most of the western world, and thus it was feared that Arle could be bad for sales of the game, being a female protagonist. Your first experience with Puyo Puyo, if any, may have very well been Dr. Robotnik’s Mean Bean Machine (1993), Kirby’s Avalanche/Ghost Trap (1995), or various other versions of the original that did not feature the cast created from Madou Monogatari. And despite being massive, Compile somehow managed to **** it up massively and go bankrupt, not that the series was getting worse (though Puyo Puyo SUN, 1996, and Puyo Puyo 4, 1999, were not as popular as Puyo 2 but rarely considered poor in quality) but they simply made a really bad business decision. To try and save themselves, they sold Puyo Puyo to SEGA in 1998, intending to buy it back when they made enough money, before 2001 when they would lose the rights to make the games entirely. They ended up going bankrupt.


SEGA’s tenure came with massive changes. Firstly, the series ended up in the hands of Sonic Team, the current devs of Puyo Puyo to this day. While the first game they made (Minna de Puyo Puyo, which they didn’t really make, but outsourced to somebody else) was very similar to Compile’s reign, when Puyo Puyo Fever launched in arcades in 2003, something was very different. The art style was more poppish, Arle’s hair color was different, and her friends were gone. She was no longer the star: Amitie took over the spotlight (Arle has since regained it after some time playing footsies with this title from Amitie and Ringo), and there was a whole new cast of faces, some totally new like the chipper, ignorantly murderous ghost girl Yu (later revealed to have a brother named Rei), some spiritual successors such as the gay talking skeleton Oshare Bones, who likes fashion instead of tea. Even the rules now featured individualised character Puyo or attack stats, and a new Fever mode that allowed losing players to mount comebacks. A bold move, SEGA also proved to release Puyo Pop Advance (Minna) and Puyo Pop Fever in the west. This did not work out, since at the time SEGA of America had a massive Sonic boner that they could not subside for Puyo and barely bothered, if they ever did, to advertise it.


Puyo Puyo would see many releases, all of them Japan only, none of them particularly successful but good enough to keep the series doing decently well. Arle’s friends started to come back in 2006’s Puyo Puyo!, or 15th Anniversary as the west calls it, as the series explains this as world hopping. Then Puyo Puyo!! Quest came out on phones in 2013, and it turned the series’ luck around. This is a game that is unlike traditional Puyo Puyo: it’s mostly singleplayer with a good amount of multiplayer, and the way the game is set up is totally different: you pop Puyo by touching them, in order to power up your characters as they go on Quests. The game is also a gacha game, though it never gets to money grubbing extents (in my time), as the game can easily be played F2P to very satisfactory results. To say that it broke the bank would be an understatement: it still retains this title to this day. The series would hit the ****ing jackpot in 2017: Puyo Puyo Tetris, originally released in Japan back in 2014, got a port to Nintendo Switch that came with an English localization, not to mention Sonic Mania featuring it as a boss battle and unlockable game mode. The game did very well for itself despite everything, and to this day seems to be going on with no signs of slowing down (then again, Bottle Episode came out in October of last year).


If you’re curious as to how much Puyo you can get on Nintendo systems, just for the record, the Virtual Boy is the only Nintendo console that lacks a Puyo game of any kind, although there are not enough Nintendo consoles to have one version of every game without overlap (the Wii/DS/3DS has to have at least 2). Madou, by contrast, only had a few Nintendo releases. The series has been going on for 30 years composite, and 28 only counting Puyo. Total sales of Puyo break 25 million, though whether or not this number includes Quest sales I do not know. Either way, it makes it one of the more profitable series and SEGA’s number 2 (Sonic curbstomps everything else they’ve got.)


---
I had a write-up planned out for her today, but it was made prior to Joker's reveal. While it's useless as a whole NOW, it's still got some very solid points:



  • While nowhere near on the level of, say, Dragon Quest, Puyo Puyo is still a pretty big series in its home country.
  • The series has been going on since its inception, and shows no sign of coming to an end (outside of, say, Sonic Team being destroyed, but that's worst case scenario). It is both long-standing and relevant.
  • Thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris, she is nowhere near as much of an unknown over here as she used to be, although the series isn't very big here yet. Since that came out not too far away from Persona 5's English launch, I'd say it factors in. Thanks to Puyo Puyo being confirmed for SEGA Ages worldwide, at the very least SEGA now thinks Puyo in the west has a potential future, in case anybody thought that Puyo Tetris was a one-time thing, though this won’t specifically confirm her since it happens after eSports.
  • Speaking of, because she's technically in a Tetris game, she can technically represent Tetris with a character without needing to do something incredibly crazy (though L block or Tetris Man work). She'd take priority over Ringo and Tee because they're not as iconic, nor as popular, and don't have legacy or as much to stand out with.
  • She's got plenty to help her stand out from the crowd: magic is still a rarity among the cast, a chaining mechanic, Carbuncle, the titular Puyo, and that assumes Sega doesn't allow Sakurai to tap into Madou. With it, she's got lots of potential.
  • Last and least, puzzle games are seriously hurting for characters, and we're more or less down to two at this point.
  • eSports is irrelevant because Xenoblade 2 is too new by release date. If it were to matter, however, then it could potentially be a deciding factor.
Irrelevant points were: Assuming Nintendo would prioritize characters with good Nintendo history, as to not promote free advertising for Sony and Microsoft, and obviously every point related to the vacant slot in a SEGA character: since, you know, :ultjoker:. As well as her legacy except compared to other Puyo characters, since it seems like new faces are going to be dominant.

I'd say this totals her chance to about 20% in my eyes, since she has lots of good points, but the only major bad point couldn't possibly be worse.

Still, if we are going to get another SEGA rep, with one exception (anybody here know Yakuza? I’m not having that upset happen again), I have absolutely no doubts that it'd be Arle at this point. Joker's just kind of making it a hard sell. And unlike Tails, Arle has to get in ASAP, because if a Round 2 happens then she has to compete with him and Eggman again. A Round 3, she's almost guaranteed, but that's even assuming a round 2 happens, let alone a round 3 which is almost a farce.

---

2424% (Pretend I said 100%)

Unlike my chance, this isn't dated! It's still here.

So. This is it. This is my most wanted character, BY FAR. BY ****ING FAR. Capping the score for want at 100% is bad for me because it’s a ****ing lie that implies I only want her a decent bit more than Banjo and Paper Mario. I’d ban them from ever being in Smash in a heartbeat if it guaranteed Arle. There is no competition here. There is nothing I wouldn’t sacrifice (short of critical gameplay mechanics) to get Arle in this game. I would let Patrick Star’s turds be playable in Smash as the main character and not give half a crap if Arle Nadja was playable. I draw the line at real life offensive stuff (even Arle couldn't soften that blow), but short of that, there’s nothing I’d never take if it meant getting Arle Nadja in, even Son Goku.
Her series deserves more love! That’s part of why I want it to happen. It’s quite fantastic, blending impressive competitive play with a fantastic cast of characters, (almost) all of them quite lovable or enjoyable. They’re the best. I’m not asking for a revival, though I am asking for more localizations...
In particular, make Puyo 2 the standard in the west. Mean Bean Machine and the other game that I’m about to get to use OPP rules, which are extremely dated and horribly represent the series today. Making them less of the standard would be much better.
I really really am a fan of the character. I like her personality. I like her abilities. There’s not much to say, you can’t change who you like, but Arle does bring a strong, sassy side that’s counterbalanced by being capable of genuine kindness and appreciation. She doesn’t take anybody’s ****. She’s good to her pet Carbuncle. She and the situations she gets in are hilarious.
ARLE. VS. KIRBY. This is a dream match for me, possibly around the level of Arle vs. Dr. Eggman, which is technically already possible in Puyo Puyo Quest. It’d be great whether you’d think she’d be out for revenge (like I do) or forgives him for what went down in 1995, which is that he stole her game. Remember the Avalanche? Or the Ghost Trap? That’s what I mean. Kirby’s Super Puyo Puyo Reskin apparently was just going to be Puyo 1 for the SNES before Compile (at the time, the dev team) was approached by Nintendo for the Kirby reskin process.
Y’know, this game could use more mages. Especially all around mages like Arle. The female newcomer selection is a little low right now, and all of them are based on other fighters (yes, Isabelle isn’t an echo, but it’s undeniable that she shares quite a bit with Villager). Arle’s got that covered, too, providing plenty of things to help her stand out.
Oh, and puzzle games are ****ing hurting, literally only having Dr. Mario, who is a clone. She might *not* count, as she herself hails from an RPG series, but she's more known for Puyo Puyo than Madou Monogatari, and that series isn't owned by Sega but by Compile Heart (basically Compile 2). So that'd be a fantastic hole to fix, and since I've never played a Layton game nor am I as interested in Panepon, Arle is my preferred choice.
My love letter to the series would be one that is very long, and respects the entirety of the Puyo Puyo franchise. This will be as involved and barking as I get. There’s nothing I want out of this game except Arle. With her, I will forgive every shortcoming. I will never ask for anybody ever again, I mean I'd continue to support Paper Mario and Banjo and everybody else but with her the roster's totally done. This is not hyperbole. If Arle gets in, I will personally apologise to every Joker main and purchase a copy of Persona 5 for every console I can, even ones I do not own, because I would be that sorry for all of my bitterness at Joker. [That second bit might be hyperbole.] Although that might not be good, because then if she were cut I'd flip. Also, K. Rool who? Olimar who? Mr. Game and Watch who? Insta-main, regardless of moveset functionality or playstyle.

But, something big happened from my last time I wrote about Arle. More DLC was confirmed, and I think the iron is hotter than ever.

Puyo Puyo Champions matters now. The release of SNES Puyo Puyo 2 with no translation, worldwide at that, when untranslated games were skipped over on NES Online? And of course, her popularity has grown more than ever.

So now, I can say with certainty that her chances are now... 80%. I am very confident that Arle is coming.

But there is one more thing I must address. Some believe Arle is completely disconfirmed because of a recently found interview (claiming Puyo Puyo has no violence as law, and turning down a fighting game to that end), but that doesn't really apply. I go over it in this post:

Hey this is somewhat misinformation. It's been said elsewhere, but not here, but Hosoyamada is perfectly fine with this (he was the one who wanted it in the first place; ergo, he would be happy to allow Sakurai the use of Puyo content in Smash). He also isn't the creator of Puyo Puyo, like, at all. He's just the director of the games.

And, not only is it old, the people at SEGA who rejected this may not even still be there, or may have changed their minds. There's also the fact that Smash is not only a big money resource, but also, it's a lot less of a violent brutal sport as much as a whimsical slapfight. We also have no idea how long ago that cancellation was; could be anywhere between that year and back in 2016, or 15, or even 14. Hell, this could've been back in 2006, that's how long Hosoyamada has been in charge. (If Ayumi knows how long ago it was, I'd be more confident in this, or it may actually remain valid.)

Lastly, in Puyo Puyo Chronicle, the final boss of that game directly attacks the character Ally physically in the cutscene after they are defeated. While it isn't animated violence due to the nature of those cutscenes, it's much more violent than anything in the series before then (even in the Compile era). So they let that pass despite there being a supposed "ban on violence" in Puyo, which is kinda strange.
Though, there are some amendments I must make. Firstly, PushDustin updated the translation on Twitter, so the first point doesn't apply but the rest of it still stands. Second, what actually happens in that Chronicle cutscene is debated, but from my understanding it's heavily implied to be a direct assault on another character.

The want is literally the same as last time. It can't go higher, but maybe if it could I'd rate it higher.
 

Dee Dude

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Hey Arle!

Chance: 66%

I think she’s indeed very possible with how popular Puyo Puyo is in Japan and while it’s not as big and even a bit niche in the West, I think it’s evident that SEGA and Nintendo are both aiming to give it a big push in the west especially since Puyo Puyo Tetris took off as a launch title for the Switch and even has the Japanese version of Puyo 2 in Nintendo Switch Online’s SNES sections in western copies such as mine.

I heavily doubt 3 franchises per 3rd party company is even a rule at point and even then, you could still call Joker an Atlus rep despite technically being SEGA owned, and you shouldn’t even enforce a silly rule like that if Capcom and Konami get a 3rd series in Smash then it would technically be 4 characters if you include echoes like Ken and Ricther.

While not Geno/Isaac tier, Arle is definitely a fan request as she’s shown her presences in several big fan polls including the ones in Japan:
6E992B1E-546E-4E8A-A9FC-FA0DE217EC05.png D8F19300-771A-4DAB-B679-E05086A6B96B.png 65DF336E-29B8-4656-B206-ED09081D2E56.png
With Sakurai’s interest in appealing Japanese franchises to Western players as shown with SNK and DQ, it’s very easy to say that Puyo Puyo is fair game to garner their interests.

Want: 63%
Sure, why not? Arle was never a must-have of mine but she’d be one of the most harmless inclusions in my opinion and has a really cute design that fits perfectly in Smash, plus she could really bring out the Puzzle genre in her moveset that Dr. Mario failed to do since the latter is just a clone, and if it’s argued that it ain’t enough for a moveset then don’t forget that Puyo Puyo started off an RPG in the original series Madou Monogatari.
 
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chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,380
Abstain. I don't know anything about Arle Nadja or Puyo Puyo. Though apparently it's pretty popular in Japan, which helps more than it hurts, in my opinion.

Nominations: Boss: Kracko x5
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
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Arle
Chance 25 - All of this chance is for her showing up as extra DLC because I think there is a 0 percent chance that she's DLC 5. There's a lot going in her favor. She's popular and from Sega who already has a good amount of content in Smash. Would be higher on her if the no fighting game quote didn't appear recently. That being said, the quote was from a few years ago so minds could have been changed. Without that I'd probably be somewhere around 50 percent.

Want 50 - Don't really care either way on Arle. Has some merits but don't feel very interested either way. Moveset could be quite fun though

Predict Valve - 22%. Really interested in this day because I think there's some super underrated picks here.

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5
 

Sari

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Arle Nadja

Chance: 20%
Puyo Puyo is pretty popular in Japan and has started to become more well-known in the West thanks to Puyo Puyo Tetris. The falling block puzzle game genre hasn't really been explored in Smash that much, with the closest character relating to the genre being just Dr. Mario but he's mainly just there to be a Mario clone anyway. Any sort of Tetris character I view as deconfirmed with the Tetris spirits that were recently added, so when it comes to repping the genre I think the frontrunner is Arle. While we do have a fair amount of Sega characters already (even one in this pass in the form of Joker), I don't think it'd be that much of an issue for Arle since her series is nowhere near identical to the other characters. Honestly Arle doesn't really have anything going against her apart from having competition with much more popular characters.

As for that one article about the Puyo Puyo fighting game, I really don't think it'd pose that much trouble for Arle. Smash is one of the biggest games around so the people at Sega would have to be stupid to turn it down just because there is some kiddish fighting. There was probably more to that rejected idea instead of just "it'd be too violent;" at the very least I think they'd be alright with putting Arle in a spin-off game instead of making a full-fledged fighter. Heck, one of the major Puyo Puyo characters is named Satan who lives in a place called Puyo Hell. If the series can have that then I think they'd be fine with putting Arle in a fighter that went out of their way to omit the "hell" in the DK rap.

Want: 90%
When I was growing up I had one of those 6-in-1 Sega Genesis Plug-'N-Play controllers. One of the games it had was Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine (AKA Puyo Puyo 1) which was easily my favorite game on it. I later picked up Puyo Puyo Tetris and it is probably my all-time favorite puzzle game. Seriously, go play it: it's on Switch and it is essentially two games in one since it has both Puyo Puyo and Tetris. As for Arle herself, she's my most wanted Sega character and I think she'd be able to represent the series well in her moveset. I only hope that if Arle gets in that she has some of the other Puyo Puyo characters as alts.

Valve rep chance prediction: 35.92% (I'm expecting people to really overrate this)

Nominations:
Quote x5
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Arle:
Chance: 5%
Puyo Puyo might be popular in Japan, but it doesn't matter. if the owner of the franchise doesn't want it to happen, it won't happen. Giving her a 5% in the event they changed their minds

Want: 15%
I'd rather not have this character, but there are worse options

Noms: Frogger x5

Edit: Punctuation
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
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Messages
468
For the record, while participation is always encouraged, nothing in the rules forbids abstaining near-daily to get noms and predictions in. And of course I'm taking his nominations into account, why wouldn't I?
All right, I wasn't certain. I'm just not sure Plank is having fun abstaining so often and probably not reading much, so I figured participating might raise his/her spirits.

Also Arle Nadja is a terribly stupid name.
Hey not the names! Otherwise we'd have a field day with quite a few Pokémon.
 
D

Deleted member

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The Puyo Puyo popping champion

Chance: 35%
If we happen to get another Sega character I think she'd be one of the frontrunners even beating out another Sonic character as the latter is already a spirit and both Sega and Sakurai may not want to double dip instead they may want to go for their other franchises proven by Joker getting in instead of Shadow/Eggman/whomever. The only real competition I could see standing in Arle's way is Kiryu which Sega may be more inclined to choose the former rather than the latter as it's their second biggest selling franchise (IIRC) and it's incredibly popular in Japan as well as decently known elsewhere.

I'd say Arle at least has to be a frontrunner in the scenario we did get another Sega character but the question is will we? Honestly I don't know it could happen and I wouldn't be surprised if it did but with how many options companies such as Capcom and others have alongside so many big companies such as Bethesda and Koei-Tecmo not having characters I wouldn't say Sega is a frontrunner for getting another character at this point in time. Sakurai very well may think that he should go for other companies before doing yet another Sega character and in which case I wouldn't blame him.

Also that Arle Nadja not allowed to be violent or whatever thing? Yeah it may have some relevance to her chances but it very well may not as Smash is so big I don't think Sega or Compile/whoever is behind Puyo Puyo would deny his request for Arle as IIRC Square (who while maybe not as stingy as we thought is harder to work with than Sega) had an apparent rule stating that the DQ Protagonists couldn't fight each other and yet here we are Sakurai made them walk back their statement so who says he couldn't do the same if he really really wanted Arle?

Want: 80%
I would actually like Arle very much I think her design is very cute and appealing, I think having an actual character representing the Puzzle genre would be nice (Dr. Mario seriously doesn't do that) and Puyo Puyo is not only my favorite Puzzle franchise but I think it's also the frontrunner for that and the perfect choice. I say bring on Arle cause I'd really like to see how her aesthetic translates to Smash and I'd just like her to be in.

nominations: concept: First Parties after the pass x5
 

Nemuresu

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Arle:
Chance: 50%-Something deep in my gut tells me there's something Puyo Puyo-related happening rather soon, whether it's a Smash character or not, I can't lean towards either. Perhaps I'm just thinking too much into good ol' Jon Cartwright's teases, but that's just how I feel about what he's done.
Want: 50%-As stated earlier, I'm not that caring as to who comes now. I just want them to be from new franchises.

Nominations: Heihachi x5
 

Ninjaed

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Messages
468
If I may, I'd like to bring a point of discussion regarding something I've been seeing quite a bit in the ratings for the past two characters:

What do people see as likely in another Sonic character? I'm just wondering because AFAIK, anyone that isn't Shadow as an Echo is really unlikely actually. And even that option may not get a chance unless we get Echo DLC, so... is there anything I'm missing?
I forgot to reply to you... Like GoodGrief said, Sonic is a huge name. There's the film coming soon but even without that, it has some of the most iconic characters of all time. You talk to someone who doesn't care about video games, they'll at least know of Pikachu, Mario and Sonic (some actually think Pikachu = pokemon, and don't realise it's just the name of the yellow electric mouse). At one point, they were the 2 giants of Japan and participated in the infamous console wars.

With that in mind, it makes sense for Sega to get more than 1 rep (which is already the case), but also for their flag franchise to star another character... if that character brings enough to Smash. All that preceded was merely for a Sonic rep to be considered an actual candidate, they still need to prove they're worth it in terms of gameplay.

The top 3 are:
- Eggman, one of the most iconic video game villains of all time.
- Tails, Sonic's two-tailed beloved (and nerdy) sidekick.
- Shadow, aka not Sonic. Also, chaos control.

Everyone else, be it Knuckles, Amy, Metal Sonic, Blaze, etc... they all come next. Sonic and Eggman are the only 2 who are truly needed (the film doesn't even feature Tails afaik). Tails is the original sidekick and part of the franchise since the second Sonic game. Shadow is the fan favourite + the star of one of the most beloved Sonic game ever: Sonic 06... Okay kidding. Sonic Adventure 1&2 on DreamCast (let's not delve into which one is better, that's not a can I want opened).

However, like I just said, Eggman would be the only possible candidate. Let's eliminate Shadow real quick, since he's an assist trophy in this game. Not that Sakurai couldn't break that fanmade rule, but it's still unlikely. Another thing is that, like Tails, he'd be a bit too similar in his moveset to Sonic - even with taking inspiration from his Sonic Battle incarnation.
As for Tails, similar in part unless you bring in his genius mechanic side, filling his moveset with gadgets. The problem is that Eggman does that too, and doesn't suffer from being similar to Sonic. He's also more iconic and you can't have a Sonic game without Eggman (or a film). Also Tails is a mii costume.

There you go. That was longer than I'd hoped, but that's why another Sonic rep could be possible. And if one, that it'd be very very likely be Eggman. Do note I didn't say Sega rep. Eggman would then still have to compete with other Sega reps... and then with every other rep.
 

Playstation Guy 1000

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 22, 2019
Messages
359
Arle Nadja
Chance 55%:Arle is likely,Puyo Puyo became more well know in the west with Puyo Puyo Tetris and she's slowly getting more requests by fans,the only problem is she has competition with other sega characters(Aiai,Kiryu,Eggman etc).
Want 55%:Arle would be pretty neat with a nice puzzle moveset and I like some of the music from her games so I'm fine with it.
Nominations:The BlobX5
 

NintenRob

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Ehhh

Arle is a name I've seen more often this speculation period, people seem to see her as getting a Puzzle rep. But from my point of view she just doesn't have the western appeal yet. I mean look how long it took to get Dragon Quest, and that series is way bigger than Puyo Puyo. Doesn't help we already got Sega character this fighter pass and who knows what direction they'll go after. But she's certainly not impossible

Chance 5%
Want 0%

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5
 

Jave

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Arle, Puyo Popper Extraordinaire

Chance: 50%. I firmly believe that if SEGA gets another series in Smash is going to be Puyo Puyo. I mean everything seems to be lining up for it. It's their most successful non-Atlus series after Sonic. It's super popular in Japan and gaining popularity in the West. It currently has FOUR games available on Switch, including the sole import on the SNES Online App. She would represent a genre that's still unrepresented in Smash outside of Dr. Mario (who is still a Mario character). She has a character archetype (Anime Magical Girl) that's also unrepresented in Smash. The only other major puzzle series (Tetris) seems to be completely out of the question given the recent Spirit additions. The series has a great history with Nintendo, with a Puyo game in every Nintendo system except Virtual Boy. She can cast magic, use Puyos as a gimmick, and has Carbuncle as Luma-style sidekick, so a moveset is the least of her concerns. Given all that, I feel the stars have aligned for her to be in, and given we don't know the future of Smash after all's said and done with Ultimate, it really feels that this is the last chance for her to be in, so it's now or never. Of course, she's facing tons of competition, since a lot of characters from other series are in similar situations, so I feel her chances are in a good either/or, aka 50%.

Want: 100%. Tied with Shantae and Phoenix Wright as my most wanted. She has a great design, great moveset potential, and would feel perfectly fine alongside the Smash cast. Also, given how long Puyo Puyo has been around and the major contribution it has had to the puzzle game genre, I feel the series has earned it.

Nominations:
Terra (FF6) x5
 

DanganZilla5

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2,433
Arle Nadja

Chance: 52%

Puyo Puyo is popular in Japan and is seemingly getting more popular in the west. I do find it suspicious that the one Puyo Puyo japanese game was the first foreign game to be released on the SNES online service. Nintendo and Sega seemingly have been wanting to push the series more. Arle also has good moveset potential, as apparently she can use spells and some of them are quite unique so she would still stand out from Hero. It also helps that the aesthetic of her and her games could fit well with Smash.

I don't think the article talking about violence means much. They removed "hell" from the DK rap and Smash is mostly not very violent, especially since it's only E10+. I don't think her creator would mind. My slight concern is with competition. I want to talk about Sonic characters for a second. People think a second Sonic character could be somewhat likely, but I want to bring up a point: No third-party franchise has more than one unique rep. The third-party franchises that do have multiple reps (like Street Fighter and Castlevania) at the most have one unique character and one echo fighter. I don't want to create a fan rule, but I get the feeling that Sakurai doesn't want each 3rd party series to get too much spotlight (in other words, have multiple unique characters), since this is still a mostly Nintendo game overall and thus in Sakurai's eyes only Nintendo franchises get to have multiple unique reps since echo fighters don't take too much development time and you can argue Ken and Richter are as important or closely important to the characters they are echoing. This is just my speculation though.

Other Sega franchises I could see getting into Smash are Yakuza, and maybe some others like Valkyria Chronicles and Shenmue. Comparing those to Puyo Puyo, Arle's chances seem pretty good. And Arle would probably be first in line for a puzzle game rep, which we are lacking (Dr. Mario is the only one I can think of). And Tetrimino' chances seem very low.

Overall, I have a feeling that she has a good shot and seems like a weird pick that Sakurai would choose. Is she next? Probably not. I still believe that each 3rd party company won't get another fighter for this fighters pass. But as any further DLC? Quite likely.

Want: 52% as well

I don't know much about the series, but Arle seems like an interesting character and I'm very curious to see how Sakurai could implement puzzle elements into a unique character.

Predictions: Valve Rep - 31% (Higher than it should be, but people are probably going to overrate due to the recent leak)

Noms: Geno x5
 
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Plank08

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Sackboy enthusiast
All right, I wasn't certain. I'm just not sure Plank is having fun abstaining so often and probably not reading much, so I figured participating might raise his/her spirits.


Hey not the names! Otherwise we'd have a field day with quite a few Pokémon.
Oh you don’t have to worry about that, I’m fine.
It’s just a majority of these characters I have no care for and honestly 90% of what I want to do on here is get those Sackboy points so he gets more publicity, it’s just how I want to play the game.
Also I’m a guy
 
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Neosonic97

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Oh you don’t have to worry about that, I’m fine.
It’s just a majority of these characters I have no care for and honestly 90% of what I want to do on here is get those Sackboy points so he gets more publicity, it’s just how I want to play the game.
Also I’m a guy
That basically describes me as well (hence why my participation dropped off a cliff), but replace Sackboy with Reimu.
 

Ornl

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Arle Nadja
Chance
: 10%

Puyo Puyo is the best-selling series after Sonic, and I don't see any serious rival to Arle, not even Sakura Shinguji or Kazuma Kiryu. If Sonic had to have other rep, I imagine them better in the next basic game with simple gameplay, coming in a familly at the same time (as Zelda team in Melee, Kirby team in Brawl...).
Like Heros with RPG attacks, Arle Nadja has a great potencial for her genre to be finally adapted, unlike Dr. Mario, with obstacle control and puzzle combo. Without forgetting her former RPG attack from Arle no Bōken: Mahō no Jewel.

Whatever it is said, I don't think a producer would today refuse a privileged and coveted slot in Ultimate. Hideki Kamiya refused a Dante/Bayonetta meeting in Project X Zone 2 to organize a scripted meeting. But would he really refuse to meet in Smash Bros ? I think Smash Bros breaks the barriers.
Whatever the copyrights, I don't think Sega is well represented. I have a hard time considering Bayonetta as a right Sega rep, it's more ambiguous than it seems in my point of view. And regarding Joker in 2017, Famitsu distinguished Atlus and Sega in a poll. It seems that separation was still important in the collective culture in Japan.
So I think an oldschool Sega rep wouldn't be too much. But... many companies aren't yet represented (Koei-Tecmo, Level 5, Marvelous, 2sd Namco rep, Squenix-Taito Bub&Bob, 2sd Western rep...). And I don't think Arle Nadja is really necessary (for any Nintendo projects) as a Fighter.
 

3BitSaurus

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I forgot to reply to you... Like GoodGrief said, Sonic is a huge name. There's the film coming soon but even without that, it has some of the most iconic characters of all time. You talk to someone who doesn't care about video games, they'll at least know of Pikachu, Mario and Sonic (some actually think Pikachu = pokemon, and don't realise it's just the name of the yellow electric mouse). At one point, they were the 2 giants of Japan and participated in the infamous console wars.

With that in mind, it makes sense for Sega to get more than 1 rep (which is already the case), but also for their flag franchise to star another character... if that character brings enough to Smash. All that preceded was merely for a Sonic rep to be considered an actual candidate, they still need to prove they're worth it in terms of gameplay.

The top 3 are:
- Eggman, one of the most iconic video game villains of all time.
- Tails, Sonic's two-tailed beloved (and nerdy) sidekick.
- Shadow, aka not Sonic. Also, chaos control.

Everyone else, be it Knuckles, Amy, Metal Sonic, Blaze, etc... they all come next. Sonic and Eggman are the only 2 who are truly needed (the film doesn't even feature Tails afaik). Tails is the original sidekick and part of the franchise since the second Sonic game. Shadow is the fan favourite + the star of one of the most beloved Sonic game ever: Sonic 06... Okay kidding. Sonic Adventure 1&2 on DreamCast (let's not delve into which one is better, that's not a can I want opened).

However, like I just said, Eggman would be the only possible candidate. Let's eliminate Shadow real quick, since he's an assist trophy in this game. Not that Sakurai couldn't break that fanmade rule, but it's still unlikely. Another thing is that, like Tails, he'd be a bit too similar in his moveset to Sonic - even with taking inspiration from his Sonic Battle incarnation.
As for Tails, similar in part unless you bring in his genius mechanic side, filling his moveset with gadgets. The problem is that Eggman does that too, and doesn't suffer from being similar to Sonic. He's also more iconic and you can't have a Sonic game without Eggman (or a film). Also Tails is a mii costume.

There you go. That was longer than I'd hoped, but that's why another Sonic rep could be possible. And if one, that it'd be very very likely be Eggman. Do note I didn't say Sega rep. Eggman would then still have to compete with other Sega reps... and then with every other rep.
Was too tired to reply yesterday, apologies.

Yes, I'm a Sonic fan. I'm aware of how popular it is (the eternal cycle of suffering that is being a Sonic fan) and the pecking order of the most popular characters. I just don't think another non-Echo character is likely when they could go for other Sega IPs. Possible? Yes - there's no rule preventing it. But are chances high? Not really imo - especially if the next season follows the same pattern of "extra Stage, songs and Spirits". A new IP would have a lot more to add in that regard.

There are quite a few characters I like - especially Knuckles, Eggman, Blaze and Silver and the Chaotix. But I'd rather have someone else from Sega, even if it's not the one I want. Adds a little bit more variety to it.
 

Sid-cada

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Jan 19, 2013
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Arle Nadja

Chance - 20% - Did you know Puyo Puyo is officially an e-sport? I think any game with that sort of pedigree should at least be looked at. She's probably one of Sega's frontrunners when it comes to smash. Outside of Yakuza, I think Puyo Puyo is probably the one new series most likely to get in. At the very least, it was once reported as Sega's third most profitable digital games (I blame the Puyo Puyo!! Quest's gacha mechanics). Really, if she did not have such stiff competition and Sega was not already present for the Pass, I would think that she would be a top contender.

Want - 85% - I love the story of Puyo Puyo Tetris. She also has the history behind her to say that she does deserve to be in. I have enough of a connection to root for her on a personal level, which is more than I can say for many of the third parties.


Prediction

Valve Rep -7.35% - Gonna be weird...


Nominations

Kunio X5
 

Ninjaed

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Was too tired to reply yesterday, apologies.

Yes, I'm a Sonic fan. I'm aware of how popular it is (the eternal cycle of suffering that is being a Sonic fan) and the pecking order of the most popular characters. I just don't think another non-Echo character is likely when they could go for other Sega IPs. Possible? Yes - there's no rule preventing it. But are chances high? Not really imo - especially if the next season follows the same pattern of "extra Stage, songs and Spirits". A new IP would have a lot more to add in that regard.

There are quite a few characters I like - especially Knuckles, Eggman, Blaze and Silver and the Chaotix. But I'd rather have someone else from Sega, even if it's not the one I want. Adds a little bit more variety to it.
Oh I wouldn't say it's likely, but if there's one franchise that could get another rep, it's this one. Its old rivalry with Mario, the main franchise of one of the 4 companies that waged the console war, its sheer general public awareness... Also Sonic was one of only 2 third party characters in the first smash game to ever feature third party characters. It's a cut above the rest.

But like you said, I'd rather see another Sega rep, be it: Segata, Sakura, Kiryu, Ryo, a Valkyria Chronicles rep (Alicia or maybe Selvaria), even AiAi or Arle. There's quite a bit of interesting stuff to be had here. Still I'd be lying if I said Eggman isn't very interesting in his own right as well. He's one of my most wanted and for good reasons.
 
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Sari

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Day over.

Rate Concept: Valve rep.

Predict Prince of Persia from, well, Prince of Persia.

Day will end Wednesday night, after which we will have a special Thanksgiving day.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

----------

Some songs to get into the Valve mood:

 

warpenguin55

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Aug 20, 2018
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490
Valve Rep:
Chance: 5%
I don't believe the current leak about a Valve Rep getting in. The whole thing about begging Sabi not to shoot it down until a Papa Genos video comes out about it screams fake to me.

Want: 40%
I think Valve has some pretty good options. According to the wikipedia page, they've made Left 4 Dead, Portal, Team Fortress 2, DOTA 2, Half-Life, and Counter Strike. That's a pretty solid list of games, most people in the west have probably heard of at least a few of them.


Predictions: Prince of Persia 3%

Noms: Frogger x5
 

3DSNinja

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1,390
my bois chance
Chance:75%: I would honestly be shocked if a Valve character didn't happen. Heavy is very requested, Sakurai has expressed his love of the Half-Life games, and a new Half-Life is coming. I think this is pretty likely.
Want:100%: Valve has many great games, and I would love representation of any of them. Especially Half-Life. But honestly I would love any Valve rep.
Nominations: Shadow x5
 

Jomosensual

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Valve rep
Chance 45 - I think this is one of the more likely new 3rd parties to get a character. Portal and Half Life are very iconic to gaming, Left for Dead is also pretty well known, and Heavy from Team Fortress 2 is a pretty highly requested character in Europe. I'm actually surprised nobody has really mentioned any characters until the obviously fake Gordon Freeman leak came out. There's a lot of really solid picks here that just make sense for Smash and I really don't think the recent leak turning out to be fake hurts the chances at all

Want 60 - I don't really have any real connection to most Valve games but I understand a lot of their importance to gaming in general. Gordon or Chell especially would be really cool picks for Smash

Predict Prince of Persia - 3.20

Noms:
Unsafe Wiimote Guy x5
 

NintenRob

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Valve

Chance 4%
Maybe one day, but I don't think it's happening this time around. Valve has very little to do with Nintendo. I think all it has is an indie game with a Portal coat of paint.

Want 20%
Don't care about most of the eligible characters, but I would love to see Portal in Smash. Glados would be fun. But she'd better fit as a boss and we're probably not getting those.

Nominate no more stages after the pass x5

Prediction 4.2%
 

3DSNinja

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that's it. No, Valve isn't an indie. they made Steam, Half-Life, Portal, TF2, Left For Dead, Dota 2. They aren't an indie by any means.
 
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