Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 408: 3/26 Nintendo Direct Reactions

Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,943
Okay so for some reason my phone's not letting me make a spoiler tag to put the nominations into. This is weird as I've literally always been posting from my phone but now it's being all weird. I'll just do the summary, if I can manage to fix the issue I'll edit them in.

Freddy Fazbear x220
Kazuma Kiryu x195
The Blob (De Blob) x170
Crypto x160
Carmen Sandiego x155
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x140
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x135

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Chun-Li x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x65
Decidueye x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x63
Segata Sanshiro x60
[Rerate] Paper Mario x55
Mii Costume: Quote x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Bubsy x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: DLC music packs x25
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x25

Under 25

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x21
[Rerate] Kratos x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Gnar (League of Legends) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Zeraora x15
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

Travis Touchdown won his duel against Octopath Traveler rep, and rose to sixth rank.

Reporter & Wrestler go over 100 noms. You go, big guy!

Paper Mario and Mii Costume: Quote hop past the 50 nom mark.

DLC music packs and Gen 8 Pokémon reach 25 noms each.

Today's new challengers are Ahri and Otto Matic, each with 5 noms to their name.

Can't do bold letters either? This is weird.

Edit: there we go! It would appear that the VPN I'm using was messing with the site, for whatever reason.
 
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Mr. Stevenson

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 5, 2018
Messages
414
Ok I’m new to this whole thing, but I’m doing it mostly for Ryu, so here we go:

Ryu Hayabusa:

Chance - 95%

Koei Tecmo and Nintendo have pretty much always had a pretty tight knit relationship to this day. They’ve worked with a lot of Nintendo’s IPs in the past (Fire Emblem, Legend of Zelda, Pokémon, etc) and it’s quite possible that they’ll be working with Mario, eventually. Plus if I’m not mistaken Nintendo co-owns the license to the Fatal Frame IP, which is already represented in Smash as an Assist Trophy. It’s also worth mentioning that Koei Tecmo still doesn’t have a playable rep in Smash, yet, so it seems pretty inevitable at this point that possibly their most popular and iconic character, Ryu Hayabusa, is marked for one of the future 6 DLC slots.
Sure he might not have as much support as Banjo Kazooie or Geno, but look at Terry, another Japanese gaming icon that was kind of dead, and didn’t really have that much support for Smash either.

Two other things that should be noted are that:

1- Nintendo published Ninja Gaiden Razor’s Edge 3, back in the Wii U days.

2 - Sakurai confirmed that he’s been playing the original Ninja Gaiden (NES).

Want - 95%

I’m a big fan of retro stuff, specially Nintendo gaming, so Ryu Hayabusa is definitely on the top 3 for me, when it comes to most wanted characters.
I think he totally deserves the spot, given his big relationship with Nintendo and his huge legacy.
I personally am not a big fan of the more modern Ninja Gaiden titles, but the original NES trilogy sure is memorable to me. Had its fun, it’s worth it, but oh boy is it hard.
Anyway, I also believe he’d be much more than what people might call him, another sword fighter. The fact that he’s a Ninja already means variety. Not only in terms of design, obviously, but also when it comes to weapons and abilities, he has the usual ninja stars, he can climb on walls, and he has a lot of magic at his disposal. One of the most famous power ups from the NES trilogy was the Shadow Ninja on the second entry, which would basically give Ryu one or two “shadow ninjas” that would copy every single one of his moves, just like the name suggests it. I believe it’d be pretty interesting if they could incorporate something like that in Smash.

Now Rayman

Chance - 25%

If spirits can get promoted into a playable character, then I believe Geno and Rayman would be the first ones to be having that promotion, however I don’t think this is likely to happen. Although having Mii costumes from Rabbids and Assassin’s Creed, but not Rayman could potentially be a clue that he’s still possible.

Want - 5%

I honestly never really liked Rayman that much, the nature of his games always seemed rather bizarre and random, for the most part. His games weren’t that fun either, as far as I remember. At least he’s cartoony, but honestly, I personally think there are much more interesting platforming characters out there that aren’t in Smash, yet.
 
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DarthEnderX

Smash Master
Joined
Nov 10, 2014
Messages
3,056
Ryu Hayabusa

Want: 100%

My current most wanted character. A classic NES character right up there with the likes of Mega Man and Simon.

Any character that's in Super Mario Crossover, the NES Classic Edition and the cover of Nintendo Power 260 is a must have for me.

Chance: 90%

Tecmo Koei needs a rep. They work with Nintendo a ton. Ninja Gaiden was a classic on the NES, and his franchise continues to exist today. Also counts as a DoA rep.
 
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Wonder Smash

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 8, 2013
Messages
145
Ryu Hayabusa

95% Chance

Ryu Hayabusa is one of the most iconic ninja characters in video games. He's had a long history on Nintendo consoles, starting with the Ninja Gaiden trilogy on the NES to the more recent games, including the Warriors series. His company, Koei Tecmo, has also worked closely with Nintendo for the past decade. Plus, the fact that he's also been a regular character in another fighting game series (Dead or Alive) and he's becoming a regular in the Warriors Orochi series, shows that he's a very active character, whether his series is active or not. He's also got ton of moves to work into a moveset, including the famous Izuna Drop.

Also, he's even had a crossover with the Metroid series, with Samus and Ridley appearing in Dead or Alive Dimensions.

100% Want

Although he wasn't always my most wanted, I did always believed that he would be a great character for Smash, so I was never opposed to him getting in. But lately, I've been given it some more thought and now he's become my most wanted character. He's an iconic character comes from the 80s era and been in some hit games on the NES just like Mario, Link, Simon, and Mega Man. I've played those games myself and always had a blast with them, no matter how hard they were. And why not? His was series influenced by Super Mario and Castlevania.

I haven't played any of the modern Ninja Gaiden games but I've grown interested in playing them lately. Based on what I see and what I've heard about them, they're great games. So hopefully, that helps a whole lot in his chances of getting into Smash.
 
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iMACobra

Smash Apprentice
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Messages
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iMACobra
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New to this RTC thing.

Rayman abstain

Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 97.5%
Fairly confidant that Koei Tecmo is finally getting a playable rep and it will be Ninja Gaiden's Ryu. Like everyone said here, NES icon, Koei Tecmo's amazing relationship with Nintendo, etc., things seem to be looking up for the Dragon Ninja. Also just got a new game appearance in Warriors Orochi 4 Ultimate on Valentine's Day. Fake leaks may have got to him but seeing as he has been in many of these, it just goes to show others think that he is a shoo in as well which may actually show more popularity than originally thought.

Want - 100%
My most wanted, and I don't have very many. Played the first NES game, haven't beaten the 3 final bosses yet but I really enjoyed it. Modern Ninja Gaiden is where my heart is at with the series. I just generally prefer the more methodical and combo-based gameplay of the later games. I also think he has more moveset potential to be garnered from this side of the series as he even has Dead or Alive at his disposal.

I will be extremely surprised if these next 6 Challenger Packs pass by with no Ninja Gaiden representation in sight, let alone a Spirit Event. As with the unlikely SNK getting a (huge) bone, it's only a mattter of time for Koei Tecmo.
 

Seanapotamus

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Jun 9, 2019
Messages
494
Location
United States
Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 50%

Ryu Hayabusa is one of the more commonly speculated characters within Ultimate's DLC cycle and there's a good reason for that. Koei Tecmo has a great relationship with Nintendo and even helped with Three Houses which ended up being a critically acclaimed game, among others. It certainly helps that Hayabusa is an iconic NES-era character with a legacy. And besides, Koei Tecmo is overdue for a playable character, and he's the most logical choice to represent the company. While Ninja Gaiden is a dormant series, it wouldn't stop him from being a prospective character, since he's a recurring character in Dead or Alive, like how Terry's home series (Fatal Fury) is dormant but he's a prominent character in the King of Fighters. I don't think the debunked leaks hurt his chances, but for now I'll give him a 50% chance considering we don't know the direction the second Fighters Pass will take.

Want - 90%

When it comes to classic NES-era characters like Simon and Pit in Smash, I felt like Ryu Hayabusa not being in the game is . And yes, we already have two ninja characters on the roster (:ultsheik::ultgreninja:) but Hayabusa can provide even more in his moveset with the powerups he uses in his games and would have a more interesting moveset, and he could also come with his famous Izuna Drop move. And unlike the two ninja characters we have in Smash, Hayabusa would bring his Dragon Sword with him, true to his series. I wasn't interested in Hayabusa and Ninja Gaiden until August, but I do want to see another NES icon alongside with other iconic characters from his era.

Rayman

Chance - 5%

The only way I see Rayman getting in is if spirits don't deconfirm characters, which we still don't know if they do. Then there is also the Ubisoft Mii costumes in Altair and the Rabbids released alongside Byleth, which assuming they would've went with Rayman, which might be a killing blow to his chances. But we'll see.

Want - 10%

I don't really have an attachment for Rayman so I can't say too much about him or his series.
 
Joined
Mar 7, 2019
Messages
718
Location
Hulao Gate
Rayman

Chance: 0.1%

I still don't believe any Spirits will get the special treatment of becoming a fighter in Vol 2, and those Ubisoft Mii Costumes do a detriment to Rayman's chances anyways. Rayman's chances are as low as pretty much every other spirit that's in the game for me.

Want: 15%

I'll put a quote from the last time we rated him for this:

It's weird that I find Rayman better off as a Fighter in the base game rather than DLC since another Western character would be a huge deal for many, but he doesn't really do much for me. A character from a game I've never played but only know off of name value can be hit or miss for me, and Rayman is of the latter on that department.
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Hayabusa

Chance: 50%

My previous rating with Hayabusa stays relatively the same but without an extra 1%. I 99.9% believe a Koei-Tecmo rep will be in Vol 2 with pretty much everything involved between them and Nintendo, but the question is which franchise will be in Smash between Ninja Gaiden and Dynasty Warriors. Ninja Gaiden has a lot of merits behind it like being a series predating back to the NES era, being 1 of the most recognizable franchises Koei-Tecmo own, and Team Ninja's previous involvement with various Nintendo projects like developing Other M and co-developing Hyrule Warriors and Fire Emblem Warriors. There is also Vergeburger assuming the reason Hayabusa was the name going around for DLC was because the talks were leaked instead, but that's only an assumption and not sufficient evidence. On the other hand, Dynasty Warriors (and the entire Musou franchise) has been the household name for Koei-Tecmo with all the various spinoffs including HW and FEW and has the legacy of spawning the Musou genre entirely. It even has more content to add than Ninja Gaiden currently. It's pretty much split in the middle for these 2 franchises. It could be possible for K-T to get 2 reps in Vol 2, but the probability of that happening is super low since the only company capable of getting more than 1 rep in Smash's DLC is Nintendo since they're based as'f like that.

Also, I wanna quote this bit from the last time we rated him cause I kinda liked what I said about why he'd be chosen as DLC instead of being a base roster member:

Ryu Hayabusa still has a lot to offer as DLC. When I see people bring up that he would seem to be the kind of character that would be in the base game, I would agree with them if we're talking about the NES version of Ryu Hayabusa. The reason I think he will become DLC is because he'll be based off of Team Ninja's version of the Ninja Gaiden games as they lean towards a more mature audience while also looking easier to tone down to the E10+ rating than other rated M games, and they offer a lot more moveset material than the NES games do (though that isn't to say they won't mix a few NES stuff in his moveset). He has a good amount of signature moves in those games that can translate well in Smash with how solid the pacing and animations are in those games. While the modern Ninja Gaiden games may not be looked upon as a Nintendo Classic, they were certainly present in the Xbox scene even more than Banjo-Kazooie ever were. Ryu Hayabusa would not only please and appeal to the crowd that want more NES franchises in Smash but also potentially a good chunk of Xbox fans since the modern games were mainly on Xbox consoles, and recently, they became backwards compatible on the Xbox One (you could even say he's probably more of a Microsoft rep than BK is lol).
Want: 100%

Even though he's now my 3rd Most Wanted Newcomer for Smash since I'm now more favorable for a Dynasty Warriors rep and even an FBI Special Agent over him, I still really want to see Hayabusa in Smash. Is he super predictable a lot more than ever before? Yeah, but that's the only negative I have about him because he still has a lot to offer for Smash. His moveset in the modern trilogy is sick and would definitely be great to see the Izuna Drop being used in his potential Smash moveset. There's also the novelties of a Smash remixed Unbreakable Determination and adding another NES OG to Smash to further "complete" the Smash roster. He may not be as much of a sleeper pick anymore, but that certainly won't stop me from wanting to main him as soon as we see him in the game.
------------------
Predictions:
Lara - 34%
Chief - 33%

------------------
Noms:
Devolver Digital Rep x5
 
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Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,532
Rayman

Chance - 1.5% - He is in the game as a spirit, and while that's not a direct disconfirmation at this point it's a major hit to his favor. Given how much Ubisoft has given without anything in return, I doubt at this point that there is enough interest to get him in.

Want - 60% - I enjoyed Legends, so I can see the appeal. While I'm not actively rooting for him and have a bit of worry about how interesting he might be, in the end I think I can enjoy his inclusion.


Ryu Hayabusa

Chance - 60% - I don't think there are many I can rate higher. One of the last holdouts of the NES era who fits the game like a glove. He has had acclaim both in the Retro and Modern gaming spheres. Nintendo already has a small amount of his company included in the base game, so there's probably not much of a stretch to include their most obvious representative. While he might fall to the wayside due to Dynasty Warriors, or be deemed not as interesting due to already having two Ninjas on the roster, overall I think he is the most likely character right now.

Want- 75% - Any NES icon will pretty much get an okay from me! I think he could offer something interesting, although as I haven't played his games I need a bit more to get into him.


Nominations

De Blob X5
 

MrUndy

Smash Cadet
Joined
Oct 26, 2018
Messages
38
Oh boy, it's been a while since my last post on this forum.
Ok, this time i'm going abstain Ryu, cuz i don't know much about the series, and last time i tried to rate him was... eh.

- Hi Folks! You wanna know what's going on? Let me tell you a story of "One of few character that Smash speculators like to stomp in dirt"!

Chance: 73,76%

I still think Rayman can have a playable appearance in the game, and hear(or read(?)) me out!

One of the most common argument against his inclusion is "Spirit deconfirmation". It's been confirmed that spirits can be editable, not just named, but also the battles themselves! Developers can easily replace the regular spirit of Rayman with The Fighter spirit, or even deleted it. And it's 100 DAMN percent possible without issues, i know what am i talking about!
Let's face it, the argument is dead, 90% of people who's using that just don't want Geno, Rayman, Bandana Dee and Shantae in the game.


Yeah, he's not popular in Japan, but does it really matter? Just show me at least one time when Sakurai or anyone on interview said that it matter. I mean do you remeber that time when Sakurai said that it's dosen't metter if a character isn't popular but fun to play? eh!? Correct me if I'm wrong, and... was :ultridley: or:ultlittlemac: popular in Japan? They were mostly requested in the West, but still manage to make it to the roaster!


And for the last!I don't understand why do people think that the Mii costumes of Rabbid and Altair completely destroys Rayman chancese. Have anyone thought that Nintendo had to make conversation with Ubisoft to ask if they can use the characters? And during that talk Ubi could mantion Rayman, they aleady mantioned that they want him in the game.


If Rayman wasn't choosen for the bace roaster and Fighter Pass 1 and doesen't mean he can't join later.


Ubisoft still care about Rayman. For his 23th Anniversary he was includede in Brawlhalla, and last year we got a new mobile game. If we will see him as a fighter for his 25th Anniversary, that would be awesome, I mean It's been 7 years since Rayman Legends was released and the fans desirve to see him fighting along with others gaming icons!


And one more thing: Most of negative arguments never worked!

WANT: 100%
 
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Simnm

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 6, 2019
Messages
141
Ryu hayabusa
Chance-60%
With ninja gaiden being a retro icon i can see sakurai picking him similiarly to how he picked terry with koei techmo being an unrepresented company in smash similiar to snk

Want-50%
He'd be cool

Rayman
Chance-50%
I can see rayman happening due to the fact that ubisoft and nintendo are quite close and i dont think i dont think him having a spirit decreases his chances by much

Want-70%
He'd be cool with him being a bit of an childhood icon of mine and with him potentially being quite unique as a fighter

Nominations-steve×5(rerate)
 

Sari

Smash Master
Writing Team
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Day over.

Rate Lara Croft from Tomb Raider and Master Chief from Halo.

Predict Waluigi and Isaac (Golden Sun).

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Some songs to get into the mood for today's characters:

Lara Croft


Master Chief

 

Calamitas

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
1,856
Location
Germany
Uh, that day lasted shorter than I expected. I'll still throw out my ratings before any happen for Lara and Master Chief, in the hopes that they still count.

Blue Boruto's Dad

Chance: 50%
These points have been brought up a lot already, so I'll keep this short. NES icon, long legacy, still going strong today, has leaks with uncertain validity going for him. In spite of all these points I'm not really convinced of just how likely this all makes him, hence why I'm only giving 50%.

Want: 0%
Nah, sorry. I'm just plain not interested in this kind of character.

Rayman, from the popular Rabbids™ games


Chance: 5%
Again, keeping this short. He's a base game Spirit, which in itself is (in my opinion) not exactly a death sentence. But his spirit battle is rather prominently featured in WoL, meaning that Sakurai and his team are quite intent on showing him off as a Spirit. Plus, there's also a lack of popularity in Japan, which is a really heavy strike against him.

Want: Abstain
I can't really make up my mind towards Rayman with a want score, so abstain.

Predicting Master Chief to get around 57.31%.
Predicting Lara Croft to get around 41.48%.

Nomating Any Octopath Traveler rep x5.
 
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
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Duwang
Abstaining on Lara

Don't know about that, chief
Chance: 1%
Chief to me feels like he's brought up mostly by people who think the whole pass will be huge triple A, big hitting characters which each gamer is familiar with, which definitely didn't turn out to be the case for the first pass. It'll likely just be more of the same factoring in the assumed reduction in budget and manpower. Mircrosoft might have been kind enough to give us the bear and bird (tho only after Rareware members vouched for them) and that Cuphead costume but I don't see them giving us their iconic soilder willy-nilly. There's a difference between some pair of platforming mascots who weren't relevant for a whole decade Microsoft happened to own and the Triple A, face of the Xbox from a multi-million dollar franchise. Negotiations would be far more complicated. Not to mention how unpopular the Xbox brand and the FPS genre are in Japan.

Want: 1%
Bleh... I never owned an Xbox system and completely missed out on the Halo craze of the 2000's. Doomslayer is probably my preferred choice even though I haven't really played Doom as well and him being essentially deconfirmed. Lastly, I just don't know if having the mascot of a competing company in the game industry in before many viable first-party choices would sit well with me.

Waluigi: 7.67%
Isaac: 0.43%
Reporter and wrestler x5
 
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Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
507
Lara Croft

Chance: 40%

Lara Croft is underrated when it comes to speculation. She is probably the most iconic female character not in Smash yet and Tomb Raider itself is popular and is one of Square Enix's best selling properties (https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_Square-Enix_games - Tomb Raider: 74 Million copies all across the series). Judging from some research Tomb Raider has been successful in Japan and the series certainly has been doing well in the West. Lara also has a good-sized fandom to back her up. In terms of a moveset, she has different weapons and items like torches, rope, speargun, crossbows, tranquilizers, and longbows in addition to all the standard guns, bows, and knifes. She is also good at close combat so overall she has enough material to make for an interesting moveset.

As for being a Square Enix rep, her two biggest hurdles are Geno and Sora, both of which have their own obstacles to go through. So depending on how you look at that situation, one could argue that Lara Croft could be Square's top candidate. One thing about Lara Croft is that she is a western character (her first game was developed and published by British companies), but she has the benefit of being owned by a Japanese company which removes the language barrier issue. Thus her simply being a western character shouldn't hurt her chances.

Overall, her chances are looking very good. She just checks a lot of the boxes: popular in East and West, requested, has Nintendo history, and a strong legacy. Again, she is underrated and I think too many people brush her chances off to easily.

Want: 60%

I'm not a big Tomb Raider fan, but I still enjoyed the games. Lara Croft is an icon, and it would be a shame if she didn't get in the game. Plus her stage is ripe with potential. I imagine a stage that takes place on the side of a mountain and has different hazards like boulders falling down, villagers/bandits attacking the Smash characters, and maybe even a dinosaur that pops up occasionally and attacks. Overall, I'm down with her inclusion.


Master Chief Finishes The Fight!

Chance: 10%

Master Chief is in a tough spot for multiple reasons. One, he has zero Nintendo history. Some will point out the Master Chief costume in Minecraft that is available on the Switch version, but that is a big stretch. I know that Sakurai only said that it is a courtesy that a third party character has Nintendo history, but every character in Smash so far has had some kind of Nintendo history. Second, FPS games and the Xbox brand are not popular in Japan at all (Especially the Xbox brand, the numbers for the consoles in Japan are absolutely pathetic). Third, The Chief is going up against Minecraft, the best selling game of all time and is very popular worldwide. That is very tough competition to deal with.

It's certainly not impossible for Chief to get in Smash. Halo's legacy is unquestionable and the first Fighters Pass showed that the most popular characters don't always get in first. But I just can't shake the feeling that we probably won't see Master Chief in this game which is a shame.

Want: 100%

I really enjoy the Halo games and having the mascot of Xbox in Smash would be mind blowing. Seeing Mario and Master Chief fight would be a legendary sight to behold. Master Chief does have weapons and abilities that could make him unique and fun. And of course, the music. Omg the music. Please put that in Smash Sakurai. And the stage potential is great as well.

Predictions:
Waluigi - 9%
Isaac - 6%

Noms: Crypto x5
 
Joined
May 7, 2015
Messages
919
Lara Croft
Chance: 30%
Want: 100%
Lara is probably the biggest female protagonist next to Samus herself. I dont think it's a stretch to say that she is an icon. Unfortunately she's not a popular pick in Japan. And she would have to compete with other Square characters.

Master Chief
Chance: 1%
Want: 100%

If any shooty boi is put in Smash it's purely going to be a western pick like Ridley and Dark Samus. Combine that with Chief being Xbox's Mario. It's very unlikely, Banjo and Cuphead in Smash raises his chances slightly, but he's still very unlikely. But he would absolutely be dope af.

Nominations: Ring Fit Adventure
 
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
1,841
Lara Croft

Chance: 50%
I could see her happening. Tomb Raider is iconic and well loved, and Lara is one of the biggest female gaming icons alongside Samus. Square also already has characters in the game, so I could see them working with Nintendo again to add her. She’s appeared on Nintendo systems before too, so I see her in the same category as Cloud and Joker, as well as Crash and Sora.

Want: 100%
Like I said before, Tomb Raider is a legendary and iconic series. I think she'd fit great in Smash.

Master Chief

Chance: 1%
Ehhh.... Halo has never appeared on a Nintendo console. Yeah, Microsoft has worked with Smash already, but that was over a character that had a large legacy on the N64 in the past and much smaller IP in general. Especially with Halo competing with Minecraft, which is a series that has both sold more and had a greater presence on Nintendo, I dunno about him. I know people love to bring up Cloud and Joker, but both those characters A) Have appeared on Nintendo before (Theathrythm, KH Chain of Memories, Persona Q2), and B) are from series with large legacies on Nintendo consoles (FF 1-6, SMT).

Want: 30%

I don't have too much attachment to the series, but I know how popular it is. He'd be alright I guess. Not at the top of my list but not at the very bottom either.

Noms: Chun-Li x5
 
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Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
905
Abstain on Lara
Chief
Chance:50%: He's a huge character that is very popular. Plus, he's a representative of a genre unseen in Smash. I
Want:100%: Halo is an awesome franchise that deserves to be in Smash. He could also be very unique.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
674
Lara Croft

Chance: 20% - Being an extremely well known gaming icon with some good Nintendo history and a decent amount of fan demand definitely fares well for Lara. Plus with the vast array of equipment she has, there's a lot of moveset potential and options. Plus she has history, which is definitely appealing to Sakurai.

Though Lara has her fair share of obstacles as well. While she's well known in the west she isn't very big in the east, and her more recent games haven't performed particularly well. Furthermore she's an acquired IP in a company with an extremely competitive environment for a next rep: Square Enix. While she has fan demand, characters she has to compete with like Sora and Geno have astronomical demand in comparison, and regularly top fan polls.

Nonetheless, she is definitely an underrated choice that would be a good fit for the game.

Want: 20% - I don't have any experience with her games so I can't give a much higher score, but she's also competition for Gex, which is a big no no xD
If she made it in, I'd have no problems with her inclusion and I can see why she'd be chosen. I'd happily pick her over fellow Square Enix action girl 2B. Lara has the legacy, Nintendo representation, iconic status, and moveset potential. She had definitely earned her place in Smash.



Master Chief

Chance: 15% - With rumors of a Switch port of Master Chief Collection and Nintendo's experience working with Microsoft (thanks to Banjo-Kazooie and Cuphead), this could realistically happen. Master Chief is an extremely iconic character, and father to the modern FPS. And with Doom Slayer out of the picture, he's the frontrunner for his genre. He also has a decent amount of fans in Japan for an FPS, and is more recognizable there than the Slayer, so Nintendo would see him as more marketable. Plus he has the legacy that would make him appealing to Sakurai.

Though he has his own problems as well. FPS still isn't very popular in Japan and the Chief has no Nintendo representation beyond a Minecraft skin, so he might not be high priority. Furthermore, there's competition with Steve, a fan favorite with a vocal fanbase, and starring in a game that was huge in Japan. Ultimately it's a toss up between the two.

Want: 30% - My experience with the Halo franchise merely extends to watching my friend play 3 and 4, along with plenty of jokes about Husky Raid. But reading into the lore and seeing the sci-fi elements in game, it gives Master Chief a lot of awesome moveset potential that could make for a fun character!


Nominations:
Bubsy x5


Predictions:
Waluigi - 10.53%
Isaac - 4.88%
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
129
The 2 Most deserving characters imo

Lara Croft
Chance 25%
Lara does have some stuff going for her. Square has worked with Nintendo before and Lara is super iconic. Tomb Raider has a few appearances on GameBoy, DS, and GameCube. There are multiple games that skipped Nintendo all together, but that's not too big a deal considering Cloud and Joker. Also according to Wikipedia she holds the record for most recognizable video game character. People know who she is. In fact, I'm surprised she isn't more requested.

Want: 100%
I told myself before I wasn't giving anyone a 100% want besides League rep, but Lara and Master Chief break the rule. Lara deserves a spot in smash. She's the first female gaming icon. Tomb Raider is still pretty well known. There are very few characters that deserve a spot in Smash more than she does.

Master Chef
Chance: 10%
I don't know about this one. For some reason, feel like Master Chief is too big for smash(not in the Ridley way). I don't know if you can negotiate for him. Would Mircosoft even allow it? I feel like this can't happen. How would they even negotiate for him? Mario showing up in Halo doesn't sound like it works tbh.

Want: 100%
I have no experience with Halo what so ever. I have never owned an XBox. I still know who Master Chief is. Every western gamer knows who Master Chief is. Every western gamer knows what Halo is. Master Chief is a legendary character. Halo is THE Microsoft series. If you haven't heard of Halo or Master Chief, I'm going to have to borrow that rock you've been living under so I can dodge the US Election drama later this year. Master Chief would be the hands down best DLC inclusion, beating out the current undisputed best Joker. Stupid jokes aside, you can't deny how damn huge this inclusion would be.

Predictions:
Waluigi 10%
Isaac 3%

Noms: Gnar x5
 

Sari

Smash Master
Writing Team
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Messages
3,395
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
I got swamped with work so I apologize for this being later than usual:

Calc scores

-----

General reminder:

Your chance and want scores need to have at least two full sentences each for them to be counted (two for chance, two for want).

I had to ignore a bunch of ratings yesterday as a result of people not following this rule (especially for Rayman's ratings). Remember that this rule has been in place since the start of this game and a summary of all of the rules can be seen on the very first post of this thread. Of course if you choose to abstain on a character there is no sentence requirement.

-----

Ryu Hayabusa
59.48% Chance - 64.32% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Perkilator Perkilator with 50.00%
Hayabusa's last rating was in July where he got 44.00% Chance and 57.03% Want. The July rating was shortly after Hero/Banjo were confirmed which meant that several big rumors which featured Hayabusa at the time were proven to be fake. Furthermore, a few additional "leaks" after the July rating that also featured Hayabusa got debunked as a result of Terry's inclusion. There have been many characters in the past who have come and gone in Smash speculation on the basis of nothing but phony leaks (yes I'm looking at you KOS-MOS), so as a mere spectator to all of this I was sort of expecting both Hayabusa's chance and want scores to drop dramatically.

Needless to say... I was wrong.


Today Hayabusa has shown that he's much more than just some random leakbait character of the month. We had several +90% chance scores today and even two people who gave Hayabusa a 100% chance of happening. Normally I'd laugh at such high ratings for a character, but they all echoed the same strong points: NES icon, company history with Nintendo, Sakurai being a fan of the series, etc. Similar points were brought up by the majority of the thread which for the most part gave Hayabusa +50% chance scores.

As a result of yesterday's rating, Hayabusa is now the most expected character according to this thread as of the post-Byleth rerate schedule, beating Crash's 59.26% chance score by just a very slight margin. Debunked leaks are no match for this ninja's unbreakable determination to be in Smash.

Rayman
11.53% Chance - 52.35% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Louie G. Louie G. with a very close 11.50% (you get 10 extra noms in total for this)
Rayman's last rating in July got him 8.15% Chance and 64.03% Want. Surprisingly, the Ubisoft Mii costumes that released alongside Byleth didn't seem to be that much of a factor against Rayman's chances which actually slightly increased. With a new season of DLC taking place a whole year after Ultimate's release, I guess more people are willing to give base game spirits a chance of becoming playable.

But Rayman was just the warmup when it comes to spirit promotion discussions: the upcoming ratings will feature some heavily requested Nintendo characters that are already spirits. Expect wildly different responses for the next week or so.

Perkilator Perkilator gets 5 extra noms while Louie G. Louie G. gets 10 extra noms for being within 0.1% of the actual chance score.

Uh, that day lasted shorter than I expected. I'll still throw out my ratings before any happen for Lara and Master Chief, in the hopes that they still count.
You posted your ratings within the one hour threshold so you're all good.
 
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Joined
Apr 8, 2018
Messages
1,375
Location
San Clemente, California
Voluptuous Raider
Chance: 0%

It's Square Enix. More than likely, we might not even get her in the next game.

Want: Abstain
No doubt Tomb Raider is influential, so I'm not intending to target its fans. But personally, don't really care THAT much for the series.

Master Chief
Chance: Unknown

Anything is possible, so I can never make a fair judgement these days unless it's a mainstream Nintendo character. And sometimes we get THAT wrong, so let's just wait and see

Want: 0%
No offense to those who like the series, but I just can't see it. The closest he's even got to history with Nintendo (something even :ultjoker: has through Q2 and Strikers) is an unreleased DS Halo game. I know history with Nintendo isn't exactly necessary to be Smash eligible, but having a 3rd-party character who didn't make a single Nintnedo appearance feels rather alien (no pun intended) to me.

Waluigi: 0%
Isaac: 0%


Noms: Ring Fit Adventure x10
 
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
947
Lara

Chance 45 - If she was owned by someone else i could see this being way higher. The issue is that Square sucks and the price for her might be too high. I know Brawlhalla got her in the game and it appears they got a stage too so maybe it isnt as high as i think it is. There's also a lot of competition from SE characters and Lara is the most iconic of all of them, so that does help her chances. Think she's a likely pick for the first spot of the pack as the attention getter or as an E3 reveal.

Want 100 - If I got to pick out who was in the fighters pass Lara would be the first name I'd go for after finding out if Sony would play ball or not. Lara is probably the most iconic character not in Smash and without a doubt is one of the most iconic characters in gaming. There's very few who would be as awesome as Lara Croft joining the game.


Master Chief
Chance 30 - Feel like this could be the inverse of Hero's deal with Japan/Amercia popularity flipped. That being said, I dont think it'll matter as much because Japan gets a lot more focus(IDK if thats the right word) for Smash. I still could easily see it with the Microsoft/Nintendo relationship being a thing. Another perfect opener or E3 pick here.

Want 100 - While not as iconic as Lara, Master Chief is still very big and I think he's earned his spot in the game. I really can't be assed about Nintendo connection and there's been rumors for a while that's changing anyways. Would be a really good choice for a western reveal at E3 this year or the VGAs assuming we're doing a reveal there again.

Preditcts
Waluigi - 5%
Issac - 10%

Noms
Falinks x5
 
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BowserKing

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
426
Location
winnipeg
Lara Croft

Chance: 15%. While we already have two Square Enix reps, she still has a chance of being in this game. She has lots going for her, including being iconic, having multiple games for Nintendo devices, and being a powerful character that won't go down easy. Competition is the main concern, along with that fact that we have 2 Square Enix Reps, and the fear of her franchise not being well represented, but she has a chance.

Want: 75%. She would totally be a fun character to play as, with multiple deadly weapons, from pistols to grabbling hooks, she would be a load of fun. And lets not forgot about the stage potential, from the dangerous creatures, the hazards and the atmosphere, has lots of potential to be one of the best new stages in Smash. Overall, Lara would be a great choice for a playable character.

Master Chief

Chance: 15%. While Master Chief lost the title of first Microsoft Rep to Banjo and Kazooie, but given how popular Halo is, Master Chief has a chance of appearing in the game. Granted competition is the biggest concern, with Steve being the main competitor, but who knows what will happen. Also the owners of Halo would love to see Master Chief in smash.

Want: 60%. Master Chief would totally be a fun character to play as, and the weapons of choice has a load of fire power to do tons of damage. I can already see Master Chief fight Ridley, with Samus and Snake as back-up to take Ridley down, but I can see some enemies interfering with the battle. Master Chief has lots of potential in smash.

Predictions: Waluigi (15%) and Issac (15%)

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion and 2 for Boss: Ender Dragon
 
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
987
Abstain. I don't know anything about either of them. Though I would like to ask, what is the situation with Tomb Raider's ownership? I know it's owned by Square Enix, but how different is their usual division (the part that does Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest) from their Western/European division (Tomb Raider)?

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5
 
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8,477
Location
Denmark
NNID
KneeMaster
Switch FC
SW-6310-1174-0352
Lara Croft:

Chance: 15% - Lara has always been a very tough character to rate for me, because while she's an undisputed video game icon, I don't feel like she fits Smash like a glove, and unfortunately for her she's owned by a company that has a plethora of options that do exactly that. I'm sorry that I can't really give a better reason than it just being a feeling I have, but when it comes to Square characters it doesn't take a lot to slide down the list given just how many strong candidates they have. Maybe this is one of those cases where the Smash bubble deceives me, but I'm going to stick with it.

Want: 40% - She'd be... alright I guess? I don't really have any strong feelings for or against her. I'm one of the few that's not a big fan of her oldschool design, which is absolutely the way they'd go if she got into Smash, so that cuts off a bit from the score, but my overall reaction to her would mostly just be indifference.

Master Chief:

Chance: 15% - While Nintendo and Microsoft are good buddies, Master Chief in Smash might just be a step too far at present. Not only are we talking about Microsoft's definitive mascot (so it's a touchy affair as far as implementation goes, which is not ideal when a language barrier is involved), but he also has to overcome the infamous problem of not being very popular in Japan, as well as compete with Steve (who I don't find super likely either, but he is competition nonetheless). The one scenario where I see this happening is if Nintendo really go out of their way for him since he would probably be the biggest character they could include at this point, and maybe Microsoft would also be able to see the benefits of it with Halo Infinite on the horizon (as well as a potential Switch port of MCC), but I do still think the odds are stacked against him. Still, just the mere fact that we're even considering it as a possibility is a testament to just how strong of a pull Smash has these days, it's not even that long ago that his name was only ever brought up in jest.

Want: 80% - I'm not a Halo fan in the slightest, I've completed Halo 3, but I've rarely ever liked any FPS games, so I wasn't particularly impressed by it. However, I would still like to see Master Chief happen, if only because of the magnitude of his inclusion, there's no other character who would shake the industry like he would do. The likes of Sora and Crash are very popular and would absolutely get a great reception, but Microsoft's mascot appearing in Nintendo's crossover game? That's something that would go beyond just fan ecstacy, it would literally be video game history. Yeah, he lacks popularity in Japan, but absolutely makes up for it in terms of impact. As for the character himself, he has a good design, as well as some neat weaponry which could be used very creatively, so even beyond all of what I said above, he would also make for a good choice for our first FPS rep imo.
 
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Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,040
Location
New Jersey
Western Wants Would Wake Worlds of Winners Wanting... uh, alliteration for this is hard. There's not much the two have that much in common.

Chance (Croft): 35%. I mean, she is a rather big deal and being a flatout household name is not something you can deny is a huge advantage that, barring Crash, Steve, Sora and Chief, (and Crash had to come back to being a household name), is something that is very very very limited and is something most Smash speculation characters WISH they had. This isn't the end all be all, however, her competition is rather strong and she hasn't been a very popular request for Super Smash Bros. specifically. Still, I think she has an honest-to-god shot.

Chance (Chief): 45%. I'm gonna go generous, the big advantages are that since he'd be based on Samus he'd be easy to make. The Chief has had a renaissance in terms of support as well, and with Microsoft involved I imagine that no Nintendo appearance or not, Master Chief is somebody who was absolutely at least in consideration, if not outright talked about. Only big problem is his lack of Japanese fan demand, but I can see him slotting in as the big western fan character.

Want (Croft): 40%. I gave one of the PS3 Tomb Raiders a shot a long time ago and wasn't really a fan. I gave one of the PS4 ones a try at my uncle's place for Thanksgiving, and it seemed a lot more interesting. But overall this isn't a pick for me; this is a pick for the people. Plus, the PSAS middle finger wouldn't be complete without her (and Crash).

Want (Chief): 35%, I would much rather have Steve from Microsoft, and I think the Doom Slayer would be just as good for an FPS character. Still, credit where credit is due, I cannot possibly say that the Chief doesn't deserve it at all.

DLC Music x 5. Waluigi is going to be kinetic as ****, but I will go with 7.49% because I think most regulars here, outside of a few outliers, will give him 0%s. Same with Isaac, but he probably won't get as many high votes, 0.64%.
 

Kremling Man

Smash Master
Joined
Oct 25, 2015
Messages
3,452
Yowie Wowie as soon as I saw his name I knew I how to do rate their chances.

Lara Croft

Chances: 50% She deserves it we need more kickass female characters but I’m unsure. She gets in.

Want: 80% Yep would love too see it.

Master Chief


Chances: 80% I’m thinking it happens, hopefully it does.

Want: 100% Haven’t played the games in a while but I love the series. Definitely want him in there’s no underselling how big it’d be for fans, Nintendo and Microsoft!
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,040
Location
New Jersey
Thanks for the calcs, Sari, I'm gonna plug them in for perspective.

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Feasible (10+%), and Red is below that, Pipe Dream.

By chance:

  1. Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance (notable amount of Hayabusa supporters)
  2. Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance (notable amount of Crash supporters)
  3. Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance
  4. Dante: 49.38% Chance
  5. Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance (notable amount of Phoenix supporters)
  6. Geno: 42.50% Chance (notable amount of Geno supporters)
  7. Sora: 40.58% Chance (iirc, there were quite a few Sora supporters)
  8. Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
  9. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
  10. 2B: 35.41% Chance
  11. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
  12. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance
  13. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
  14. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
  15. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
  16. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
  17. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
  18. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
  19. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
  20. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
  21. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
  22. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
  23. Doomguy: 2.86% Chance (widely considered out of the running)
  24. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
  25. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance

Want key: Pink = Community Favorite (#FF69B4) [60+%], Yellow = Popular (40+%), Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%). Crash. however, is a major outlier, being the only character to break 75%. Him and Wright are the only characters to break 65%, and by association, 70%. In order for things to make sense, I had to use a different scale.

By want:

  1. Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want
  2. Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want
  3. Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
  4. Dante: 64.23% Want
  5. 2B: 64.09% Want
  6. Geno: 62.93% Want
  7. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
  8. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
  9. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
  10. Sora: 54.44% Want
  11. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
  12. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
  13. Rayman: 52.35% Want
  14. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
  15. Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want
  16. The Knight: 50.12% Want
  17. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want
  18. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
  19. Doomguy: 44.15% Want
  20. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
  21. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
  22. Thrall: 26.50% Want
  23. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
  24. Tracer: 22.73% Want
  25. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want

As previously mentioned, Ryu Hayabusa has overtaken Crash Bandicoot as the most expected character, and slots in nicely within the top 3 for both chance and want. Things are looking good for him now! Because of this, Sol and Neku have lost their positions in the top 10.

Conversely, Rayman, while making the lower center of the wants, is just outside the bottom 8 in terms of chance.

In the next rating, we will see what two of the most popular western characters total up to. As well, we will get a glimpse of not just two spirits, but outright Assist Trophies.
 
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,943
Sorry Lara, mad respect but we didn't rate you that long ago and I don't think Brawlhalla changes anything beyond prove what I already thought so I'll just quote my last rating

Angelina or Alicia?

Chance: 25%
Lara Croft is an absolute massive icon and this community not really giving her much of a time of day is a symptom of all the problems in the Smash speculation scene (Japanese favoritism and complete ignorance about anything non-Nintendo). She's the most famous lady in gaming, surpassing even Samus and Chun-Li. Many of her games are absolute classics. She has Nintendo presence, her more cartoony/exaggerated combat fits perfectly. People that don't know anything about gaming know about her. What else do you want? Honestly, it taking her this long to be rated is absurd, and if Smash never gets her I'd consider that a failure for Sakurai.

The thing is, she's Square Enix, which means the competition is incredibly strong. Sora would be just as big a reveal, while Geno has the Smash fandom behind him. And maybe being Western created works against her, who knows.

Want: 90%
I love the Tomb Raider games. I lean more towards the classic titles (even some of the more mediocre ones), but the new ones have my respect because they've done some amazing things storytelling-wise and they're an example of how to do a reboot. Lara belongs in Smash, plain and simple.
Huh, I didn't do what I usually do with Square Enix characters (which is list all the ones I feel are in contention; no, I don't know why I do it, and yes, I am aware that there has to be a better way of expressing the huge competition faced). Must have been in a hurry.

Anyway, let's finish this fight

Chance: 17%
Aka way too low for my tastes. I think Chief's definitely got a good shot. With Doomguy's disconfirmation a big obstacle is out of his way. A massive icon, the king of FPSes, and imo the absolute frontrunner for a second Microsoft rep. He and his series defined gaming, shooters, online and the Xbox console for a long time. He's one of the characters you get when you want to break the internet.

Microsoft's current strategy is to just anchor their ships on any harbor that'll have them, possibly in a bid to get their brands out to new audiences or just because money is money (careful Xbox, last time a console dev realized that games money is just as good as console money they were Sega). Of any console maker, Microsoft is most chummy with Nintendo. Banjo came from that, and honestly I could see Chief coming too. I don't think they, and especially Phil Spencer, are that protective of Chief to the point where they wouldn't let the famously respectful Sakurai get his hands on him. Some may say that Halo needs to be on a Nintendo console, and that it's not enough for Master Chief to have been on one. I agree, but like I said with 2B, I honestly very much expect Halo to show up on Switch sometime soon (even more so than NieR Automata honestly). It's just a no-brainer, release the seminal trilogy on Switch, to a brand-new audience that hasn't experienced an FPS so good since GoldenEye, and the marketing for Halo Infinite pays itself.

Now, could Master Chief being a Western character or an FPS character hurt him? Sure, but honestly Chief and Halo, from what I've seen, are popular in Japan for what they are, and I'll take what I can get. And Sakurai knows his videogames enough to be aware that discarding Master Chief just because Japan doesn't like him is a huge disservice to the entire history of the medium. Sometimes games that are hugely influential and popular don't do well in Japan, what are you gonna do, sometimes people just have bad taste.

Regardless, I'm giving Chief a low rating because I could totally see him not getting in.

Want: 100%
I think Master Chief is one of, or maybe the only character who could make me buy the Pass no questions asked.

Noms: Kiryu x5

Waluigi and Isaac tomorrow? Camelot Bros let's gooo!
But I'm expecting pretty low results because of the AT thing, especially for Isaac. Still pissed off about Shadow being snubbed by the way. Expect high scores from me.
Waluigi: 27.34%
Isaac: 6.91%

I got swamped with work so I apologize for this being later than usual:

Calc scores

-----

General reminder:

Your chance and want scores need to have at least two full sentences each for them to be counted (two for chance, two for want).

I had to ignore a bunch of ratings yesterday as a result of people not following this rule (especially for Rayman's ratings). Remember that this rule has been in place since the start of this game and a summary of all of the rules can be seen on the very first post of this thread. Of course if you choose to abstain on a character there is no sentence requirement.

-----

Ryu Hayabusa
59.48% Chance - 64.32% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Perkilator Perkilator with 50.00%
Hayabusa's last rating was in July where he got 44.00% Chance and 57.03% Want. The July rating was shortly after Hero/Banjo were confirmed which meant that several big rumors which featured Hayabusa at the time were proven to be fake. Furthermore, a few additional "leaks" after the July rating that also featured Hayabusa got debunked as a result of Terry's inclusion. There have been many characters in the past who have come and gone in Smash speculation on the basis of nothing but phony leaks (yes I'm looking at you KOS-MOS), so as a mere spectator to all of this I was sort of expecting both Hayabusa's chance and want scores to drop dramatically.

Needless to say... I was wrong.


Today Hayabusa has shown that he's much more than just some random leakbait character of the month. We had several +90% chance scores today and even two people who gave Hayabusa a 100% chance of happening. Normally I'd laugh at such high ratings for a character, but they all echoed the same strong points: NES icon, company history with Nintendo, Sakurai being a fan of the series, etc. Similar points were brought up by the majority of the thread which for the most part gave Hayabusa +50% chance scores.

As a result of yesterday's rating, Hayabusa is now the most expected character according to this thread as of the post-Byleth rerate schedule, beating Crash's 59.26% chance score by just a very slight margin. Debunked leaks are no match for this ninja's unbreakable determination to be in Smash.

Rayman
11.53% Chance - 52.35% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Louie G. Louie G. with a very close 11.50% (you get 10 extra noms in total for this)
Rayman's last rating in July got him 8.15% Chance and 64.03% Want. Surprisingly, the Ubisoft Mii costumes that released alongside Byleth didn't seem to be that much of a factor against Rayman's chances which actually slightly increased. With a new season of DLC taking place a whole year after Ultimate's release, I guess more people are willing to give base game spirits a chance of becoming playable.

But Rayman was just the warmup when it comes to spirit promotion discussions: the upcoming ratings will feature some heavily requested Nintendo characters that are already spirits. Expect wildly different responses for the next week or so.

Perkilator Perkilator gets 5 extra noms while Louie G. Louie G. gets 10 extra noms for being within 0.1% of the actual chance score.


You posted your ratings within the one hour threshold so you're all good.
Ryu Hayabusa crowned king of Smash. It's good to see as one of the absolute idiots that gave him 100% chance. Now watch him get Spirited next Wednesday.

But this ninja ain't no fad, for sure.

It's Square Enix. More than likely, we might not even get her in the next game.
Are you not aware that she got into Brawlhalla? If Brawlhalla could afford her, and there's no videogame or movie to shill in the near future that would drive her price down, then Smash can definitely afford her.
 
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Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
6,943
I've noticed that a lot of people didn't give nominations yesterday, even when accounting for the many Ryu Hayabusa fans and the few Rayman fans that just came to voice support. I know we haven't had a new schedule fixed in a while, but your nominations still count! It's just 8 days left and then we're back to weekly schedules, so don't let your picks get left behind!

Freddy Fazbear x230
Kazuma Kiryu x200
The Blob (De Blob) x175
Crypto x165
Carmen Sandiego x155
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x145
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x140

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Chun-Li x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x70
Decidueye x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x63
Segata Sanshiro x60
[Rerate] Paper Mario x60
Mii Costume: Quote x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Bubsy x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: DLC music packs x25
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
[Rerate] Kratos x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Gnar (League of Legends) x15
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Falinks x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

A new challenger approaches! Falinks, with 5 noms.
 

Simnm

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Feb 6, 2019
Messages
141
I've noticed that a lot of people didn't give nominations yesterday, even when accounting for the many Ryu Hayabusa fans and the few Rayman fans that just came to voice support. I know we haven't had a new schedule fixed in a while, but your nominations still count! It's just 8 days left and then we're back to weekly schedules, so don't let your picks get left behind!

Freddy Fazbear x230
Kazuma Kiryu x200
The Blob (De Blob) x175
Crypto x165
Carmen Sandiego x155
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x145
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x140

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Chun-Li x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x70
Decidueye x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x63
Segata Sanshiro x60
[Rerate] Paper Mario x60
Mii Costume: Quote x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Bubsy x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: DLC music packs x25
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
[Rerate] Kratos x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Gnar (League of Legends) x15
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Falinks x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

A new challenger approaches! Falinks, with 5 noms.
I nominated steve for a rerate but i cant find him anywhere on the list
 

silenthunder

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 5, 2015
Messages
125
3DS FC
0490-6839-9144
I've noticed that a lot of people didn't give nominations yesterday, even when accounting for the many Ryu Hayabusa fans and the few Rayman fans that just came to voice support. I know we haven't had a new schedule fixed in a while, but your nominations still count! It's just 8 days left and then we're back to weekly schedules, so don't let your picks get left behind!

Freddy Fazbear x230
Kazuma Kiryu x200
The Blob (De Blob) x175
Crypto x165
Carmen Sandiego x155
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x145
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x140

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x105

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Chun-Li x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x70
Decidueye x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x63
Segata Sanshiro x60
[Rerate] Paper Mario x60
Mii Costume: Quote x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Bubsy x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25
Concept: DLC music packs x25
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
[Rerate] Kratos x20
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Gnar (League of Legends) x15
Zeraora x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x10
Black Shadow x8
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x7
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Falinks x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

A new challenger approaches! Falinks, with 5 noms.
where do I vote?
 

Sari

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
3,395
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
I nominated steve for a rerate but i cant find him anywhere on the list
Your previous rating where you nominated him didn't meet the sentence requirement. You need two full sentences for each chance score and two full sentences for each want score for your noms to be counted.

At the bottom of your post when you rate a character, just put:

Nominations:
[Character name] x5

For your noms to count you either have to rate the character(s) of the day or state that you will abstain from voting for the day.
 

silenthunder

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Aug 5, 2015
Messages
125
3DS FC
0490-6839-9144
Lara Croft

Chances: 18%- Everybody knows who Lara Croft is. She is a female icon in gaming. Also she is recognizable even to people who don't play games because of the movie. I know 18% doesn't seem like a lot but I have no idea who will be in smash and there are so many characters they could go for.

Want 50%- I've never played her games but she is a symbol of gaming which is what smash bros is about. I think she's a perfect fit, but I have a bias for games I've played,

Master chief

Chances: .05%- I know a lot of people say it but he's never been on a nintendo console. Not only that, he is a symbol of microsoft. He's not big in Japan and he uses a gun. (please don't come after me) He like... only uses a gun maybe that energy sword, but that's it.

Want .05%- I used to play xbox. I felt like Halo was too mainstream. I'm more of a Blinx the time sweeper guy

Nominations:
Earthworm Jim x5
 
Last edited:

Lionfranky

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 4, 2019
Messages
215
Lara Croft

Chance 35%

Yeah, she has competition against Sora and Geno despite being way more successful than them. There are many cases that Sakurai chose fan demands over more successful franchise. And, her inclusion in Brawhalla seems to damage her chance. Reason is that Brawhalla is still going in very similar genre as Smash. We can most likely deduce that SE decided to put Lara there instead. There are characters in Smash that appeared in other crossover games within close gap. So who knows?

Want 100%

I'm surprised that she doesn't have strong support. Is it that her and Smash fanbase don't overlap enough? She is one of the most iconic video game characters not in Smash. If Sakurai wants Smash to be ultimate gaming hall, she should be mandatory. She has enough tools to make moveset. Her dual pistols aren't the only options.

Master Chief

Chance 65%

Oh boy... here we go again...
https://twitter.com/Halo/status/1113166542881951744?s=20
You may say this is just a social media guy running official twitter account. But, do you think he can just post his own opinion without approval from higherup? This is more or less Microsoft's approval.

People say his Minecraft skin is stretch, but let me ask you. Do you think Nintendo would allow Mario skin on Xbox Minecraft? If you say no, then you are admitting that MC skin on Switch version is enough justification.

Microsoft doesn't view Nintendo as direct competitors. That's why we have crossplay and Ori/Cuphead Switch port. Putting Chief in Smash can benefit both sides. Microsoft gets to advertise Halo infinite and rumored Halo Switch port. Nintendo gets potential players who will get interested in Smash. Since Minecraft is already on Nintendo, I think Halo will bring more untapped market for Nintendo. And, Banjo got in before Steve, so the same can be repeated here. I don't know why people think it is absurd for Microsoft to allow Master Chief to be in Smash when they made partnership with freaking Sony.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/5/20/18632374/microsoft-sony-cloud-gaming-partnership-amazon-google
It's actually common that rivals help each other time to time. Master Chief must've popped up when Nintendo approached Microsoft for Banjo. If Microsoft offered Master Chief, would they say no?

As for Japanese market issue...
Halo 3 sold quite decently for Xbox 360. 110k isn't that much behind Banjo's 400k sales there. Halo has kinda cult following there.
Bungie had Halo 2 match against Japanese team. They got pwned by Japanese teamwork.
A bunch of Japanese anime studios made Halo animes. Halo anime sold well iirc. Just paying Japanese studios isn't going to get them make anime for you.

Want 100%

I want him for sheer internet breakdown.
I can't wait to say "I told you!"
Besides, Halo and Smash were my gaming nostalgia during college years. I bought those games, so I could play with my friends. Chief's inclusion would remind me of good ol' memory.
 
Last edited:

Sari

Smash Master
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
3,395
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Lara Croft

Chance: 30%
Lara is a gaming icon who like Crash was very big in the PS1 days and had a successful reboot within the last ten years or so. She is a very recognizable character in the public eye and was even used in various mainstream commercials in the late 90's/early 2000's. When it comes to us getting another Square Enix character she is definitely one of the underrated frontrunners.

As for Lara's recent appearance in Brawlhalla, I don't think it hurts her chances at all. In fact I'd honestly argue that this actually increases her chances because it shows Square Enix is fine with Lara appearing in crossovers. It's also worth noting that just a few weeks ago, an official Lara Croft skin was confirmed for Rainbow Six Siege. Makes me think Square is bent on promoting Tomb Raider through crossovers similar to SNK's various guest appearances within the past few years.

Want: 90%
I recently got into the Tomb Raider series and I still can't believe I never gave it a chance sooner. I'm a sucker for artifact hunting stories like Indiana Jones and Uncharted so I instantly got hooked on the idea of Lara appearing in Smash after giving her games a try. I do hope that she sports her classic outfit in Smash though since I like it much better than her reboot design.

-----

Master Chief

Chance: 10%
With Doomguy out of the running, Master Chief is probably the most likely character to represent the FPS genre if needed. That's certainly a big if though since the FPS genre isn't that popular in Japan. Halo being a Western series doesn't help and although we did get Banjo from Microsoft, that was only after 20 years of people highly requesting the character. Granted Nintendo could have bargained for another Microsoft character while trying to get Banjo but I think it's still unlikely.

Want: 70%
Master Chief is one of the biggest icons in gaming so seeing him clash against Mario would be insane. He's one of two characters (the other being 2B) who I'd be completely fine with seeing in Smash despite not playing their games yet (I'd get the Master Chief Collection on Steam but my laptop is crap). If the MCC ever gets a Switch port it will be a day one buy from me and it'd make Chief's inclusion all the more better.

-----

Waluigi chance prediction: 16.87%
Isaac chance prediction: 8.53%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5
 
Joined
Feb 8, 2014
Messages
4,465
Location
Australia
Abstain on Chief

Lara Croft
Chance 29%
Her recent crossover appearance I consider a positive. Square seems to want to push the character and is willing to use crossovers to do it.
Want 50%
Never played Tomb Raider, but I've watched her movies. I just appreciate how iconic she is.

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction 8% both
 
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