You know who I'm here for, you know who I'm the world's biggest fan of (getting in Smash-wise, at least). So let's tackle Arle immediately because boy do I have a lot to say about her!
This time I'm not dropping a huge intro on her chances.
Chance: Variable, but I will go with a
65%. But she is on my main predictions list, though it's because I envision her as the "big Japan fan want" character that does what Hero did back during last year.
Let's get this out of the way, Arle faces no serious competition from within her own series. It is only her to have any fan requests, so she's got this if we're getting a Puyo Puyo/Madou Monogatari character.
Arle's chances mostly depend on when the pass was picked. If it was picked within mid-late 2019, post-Hero/Banjo and pre-Terry, then Arle's chances raise drastically, to the extent I'd even give her a 90%. But, the older and older the selections are, the less likely she gets. It's not quite a formula, but assuming that Smash Ultimate's entire roster was picked 5 years ago for some reason, then Arle would, sadly, get a 5% because everything that makes her a viable Smash contender, such as her rapidly growing western popularity and her series getting high promotion from SEGA and, even Nintendo themselves, all comes from after 2017, and thus way too late for Smash Ultimate contention.
So, let's analyze her pros and her cons. Why do more than a few people think she has an earnest shot?
Pros:
- SEGA has been a very staunch supporter of the Switch. A lot of games, including Puyo Puyo titles, have come out for the Switch. Notably, all of them (in regards to Puyo) are all regions releases. SEGA is also already involved with Smash, so going to them for more content would not be terribly hard.
- Speaking of that, Puyo Puyo itself got a huge western renaissance in 2017 thanks to the release of Puyo Puyo Tetris on the Switch (and physical PS4, but the Switch userbase has always been way bigger), and in general has achieved massive popularity on the Switch (relative to its former self) both in terms of the west and in general.
- Arle has recently become a way bigger fan request, especially in the west, while retaining her Japanese popularity. Like, not to brag, but Twitter has shown more than a few fans of the magician getting her due.
- The September incident is, to date, the only time a completely Japan exclusive game released in all territories, untranslated. While no longer the only game to come out in North America for the first time, it still Considering the widespread availability of SNES Online,
- Arle's series has a long legacy, but is also relevant and popular today, while being intractable from its genre. This is also important, because in the Byleth Famitsu column, Sakurai noted the tendency of Smash to pick series and characters with more legacy, and this is consistent with the first Fighter's Pass: the youngest series there is Banjo-Kazooie, even if Joker and Byleth are younger, and all five of them come from 20+ year old series that are iconic to fans of their genre.
- Arle fits the Terry presentation statement, that the fun of a character is at least just as important (if not more) than that the character is recognizable, though ambiguous english wording may make this point a bit more loose.
- As for the moveset, while magic has been done before, the ability to incorporate Puyo Puyo's mechanics into Smash and have it work out would be something I believe Sakurai could do, and this gives her something that makes her stand out.
- Alongside Bandai-Namco and Microsoft, SEGA is one of the few third parties in Smash to have no Spirits (right now) and no Mii Costumes outside of either series represented in the base game (Virtua Fighter was represented in the base game) or a series with a Challenger Pack. I believe this opens the door a bit more to those three, though I would not say they help significantly nor do they hurt Capcom/Konami significantly.
- That retweet is probably not directly indicative of Arle getting in, but I interpret it as a positive way, that Hosoyamada is fine with Super Smash Bros. and likely wouldn't reject an appearance in Smash like people believed a while back. Granted, this is pure speculation, and it could easily be about FE anyway so I wouldn't put too much stock into this.
Cons:
- Almost all of the above points are significant because of how they've been adding up since 2017, turning her from a barely a hoper to a darkhorse into somebody who more than a few consider an actual candidate, some even a frontrunner. But the thing is, all of them are counting on Volume 2 being made in 2017 to 2019. Arle is perhaps the most dependant character on this, losing perhaps everything that makes her likely and becoming almost hopeless.
- Her popularity in general is still mostly confined to Japan, and while this isn't a dealbreaker it does put her chances into question at least somewhat.
- If Spirit Promotions are a thing, her biggest competitor is likely a secondary Sonic the Hedgehog character, most likely Dr. Eggman. Otherwise, then there's also Kazuma Kiryu, of Yakuza fame, and Sakura (either) from Sakura Wars. Both of them are also popular, though not as much as Puyo Puyo, but may or may not have been easier to get.
- I don't think she stands a chance at a Mii Costume, because none of them really fit her and she can't really have a sword or gun-like weapon to use, so I think she's safe from those. But, the possibility of getting a Spirit stands, because the new Zelda fits her. Granted, if she got a Spirit event, it would be because she fell through, but still.
Overall I think she is a frontrunner if the pass was picked later on, but becomes more and more questionable if it was picked earlier on. It really is a case of the eye of the beholder, and currently I believe the pass was picked later.
Want: Same as the last two times. 100%, can't go higher. At this point I now also have a lot of people who I'm friends with and who I provide content for to want her in for as well, so now my desire to see her is even stronger... though this means that she keeps my heart paralyzed during every Tuesday because that's Spirit o' clock. Still, there's nobody I would like to see half as much as Arle.
Now for the eternally poor shrine maiden.
Chance: 45%. Reimu is, in my opinion, one of two indies left who actually have a chance, the other being Quote. This is because her series is also absurdly popular, getting mountains of fanart, and has a huge amount of legacy, spanning over 20 years: essentially, Shantae's legacy with Undertale's popularity put together is already a great combination that most indies, heck, most Fighters in Smash don't compare to (the bigger reason why I gave Hat Kid and the Knight 0's was because their series were too young). As well, it appears ZUN has been more open to working with Nintendo so I don't think he'd get in the way. I'd not expect her to be terribly popular in the west, say, a year ago, but now I believe she's got one of the largest non-Smashboards fandoms I've seen yet. That being said, I think her best shot is as a back-up plan if Arle ends up not happening after all. Not that they're intra-company/series competition or anything, but they fill much of the same role as characters designed to hype up Japan so I am a bit unsure if we'd get both. Still, while not on my short list of main predictions, I would not be terribly surprised if Reimu made it.
Want: 60%. Despite what the above implies, I think Reimu would be a long-term boon for Arle in the distant future. But more than that, Reimu represents a new genre of game, has plenty of potential due to that alone to be unlike anybody else, and I've heard the music, it's pretty darned great. Overall I think she would be at the bare minimum somebody who's great because of what she represents, if nothing else. Plus, solidarity with other people I used to work with.
Paper Mario x 5, and DLC Music x 5 as well.
Hayabusa and Rayman are pretty popular picks for Volume 2. I see the former getting 40.75%, and the latter 27.59% because some people will hold his Spirit/Brawlhalla against him and other people are going to debate on whether or not they think it matters.
