Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Neosonic97]

We all know Sakurai prefers to pick a character you get to play as, and Thrall is an NPC

I'd just like to point out that Thrall is playable in Warcraft 3 (And as I'm sure you're all aware, WC3 Reforged released last month). So this particular argument doesn't really hold ground.

He's also playable in Hearthstone as the default hero for the Shaman Class, too.

Also Heroes of the Storm. He's playable in that too.

 

[shinhed-echi]

Thrall
Chance: 20%
Low. But not dead. Warcraft is or was one of Blizzard’s heavyhitters. It’s lacking a bit of relevancy today, but it’s still a PC gaming icon.

Want: 85%
I love Warcraft (2 specifically. Never got into WoW or MMOs in general). And if I had to choose, I’d go for an Orc because they are as much protagonists as the humans, since Warcraft is a tale of the two races. I might even consider Orcs to be slightly more important.
Warcraft 2 was one of my biggest gaming obsessions, and I’d love to have an axe-wielding brute with some additional abilities (throwing axes, goblin demolition squad, summoning dragons, etc) with the rest of the roster.
Plus, again, he’s a hulking Orc. Would be dope if compared to another human/female/gunslinger (a role better filled IMO by Lara Croft).

Tracer:

Chance 80%
She’s probably Blizzard’s postergirl right now. Overwatch is still getting tons of support, and is on Switch. A huge advantage (but not necessarily decisive) over Warcraft.

Want 40%
I got nothing against Tracer. I just vastly prefer Warcraft to Overwatch. Still, I wouldn’t complain about Tracer. She looks cool And Unique. Probably has some pretty neat abilities too.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Gonna make a bold assumption.

No plans as of now to continue. If this sells well, they will do something more. And I hate to shoot a messenger, but Sakurai often contradicts himself on stuff like this. My fav example is him saying that Nintendo gave him a short list to approve the choices, but when Byleth came out it was all Nintendo.

As far as I know, he's said "Nintendo picked all these" since November of 2018. The community simply forgot about it when Joker came out, because Joker was such an unexpected choice to come from Nintendo. People tried to twist that narrative by saying "Oh, but Atlus/SE said Sakurai contacted them," but there has never been a contradiction from either Sakurai or Nintendo about the situation.

While it's certainly possible we get a Fighters Pass 3 later, we at the very least know that it isn't being planned now. And honestly, trying to predict FP2 is exhausting enough.

 

[GoodGrief741]

True, not an FPS but a shooter game nonetheless. More popular, successful and impactful than Overwatch too.

Diablo the game knew a pretty decent success when it came out, topping the PC sales charts and all. I'm not sure anymore what it innovated so I won't venture there. Don't want to spread misinformation. Though I'll agree that it's the weakest of the 3. Thinking about it some more, I think I agree Overwatch deserves the 3rd spot more.

Starcraft became the national e-sport in South Korea. Its pro players are celebrities. The military also used it to train battle tactics. As for the game itself, it's been stated to be the standard to which RTS games should aspire. Finally, iconic characters? Well you've got Kerrigan for starters, or Raynor. If you prefer the Protos, then maybe Phenix would be right up your alley.

Warcraft birthed World of Warcraft. It also birthed Hearthstone (and got a film too, for what that's worth). I won't go in more detail here because I deem it not to be needed. But you said you hard disagree on the latter, mainly due to lack of iconic characters. Arthas, Illidan, Sylvanas... all 3 are pretty well-known. Thrall also has that green-skinned toothy orcish look many have grown familiar with. Also, Arthas and Thrall both sport the "iconic" cartoonish WoW armours, while Illidan and Sylvanas share those silly elven eyebrows + glowy eyes. I'd say that's plenty. No one would've claimed Joker is more iconic or recognisable than those 4 and yet look who got in.

I'll however agree Warcraft doesn't have much console market appeal as an RTS. Hearthstone would though I don't know how relevant it still is nowadays.

Edit: oh and as always, sorry if anything I said sounds harsh or demeaning or whatever. I only mean to discuss so I hope you take no offence.

Yeah, don't think any of those characters are what I'd call iconic to the console audience.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate The Knight from Hollow Knight and Hat Kid from A Hat in Time.

Predict Reimu and Arle Nadja.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

The Knight

Spoiler: Hollow Knight Music

Hat Kid

Spoiler: A Hat in Time Music

 

[BowserKing]

The Knight

Chance: 5%. Popularity and being an Indie Rep gives this character some advantage over certain other characters. Unfortunately, there are many other Indie reps in the competition, and outside that, the competition is even more destructive, as loads of characters are competing in this level. This could spell unlikeliness for Hollow Knight, but then again, we have been surprised. Plus there is always hope in the form of Mii Costumes.

Want: 50%. The Hollow Knight has an interesting design, and that character would be fun to play as. That character would have some cool moves that would make Hollow Knight worthy of being in Smash. And even if the Knight does not become playable, there is always hope for Mii Costumes, and if Sans and Cuphead can do well as Mii costumes, so can Hollow Knight.

Hat Kid

Chance: 0 to 1%. The creators said no to her being in this smash game, but who knows, she could be a Mii Costume or be playable in the sequel or a sequel of a reboot. Chances are, competition has won against her, and despite the 0% chance, she could potentially be in the game as a spirit or something.

Want: 55%. The creators saying no is an unfair thing to say. She would totally be a fun character to play as. She has lots of potential moves, that would make her a very fun and powerful character to play as. She should appear in the game, or the sequel, and who knows, we would have a unique stage that would be well loved.

Prediction: Reimu (15%) and Arle (10%)

Noms: 3 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E) and 2 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (67E)

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Tries hard to remain unbiased
Chance: 5%
Hollow Knight is undeniably more successful than your average indie title, having sold around 3 million around the time FP2 was decided and being prevalent in the most downloaded eshop titles, but so were Undertale and Cuphead. The Knight is gonna need multiple favorable circumstances and some luck on top of that to escape the grasp of being a Mii Costume.

Questions have to be asked such as: Who decides the Costumes? What are Nintendo's and Sakurai's stance on indies in Smash? Would Nintendo go for negotiating with a small western team for a character for little costs over a bigger eastern company for more profit? Has Sakurai played Hollow Knight? Does legacy still matter at this point? How popular is it in Japan? etc.

With the way indies have been treated in Smash I'm not really holding my breath. Although, anything can happen. If there had to be an exception than the Knight would probably be the character they'd do that for, it's a now or never case for them. It also does seem that Nintendo themselves are big fans of the game, announcing the sequel on their YouTube channel last year and showcasing gameplay at their Treehouse that e3 as well as listing Team Cherry as one of their partners at that Tecent event.

Want: 99.99%
Yes please! My second most wanted character and my dream pick. The Knight would make me feel the same level of excitement Joker gave alot of people. Hollow Knight is such a great game, guys! I'd be fine with a Mii Costume but the Knight as an actual fighter would be so much more preferable.

Hat Goom-uh... Kid
Chance: 0.1%
I did just say the Knight would be the indie character they'd make an exception for, didn't I? That's probably not completely true. There is some competition but I don't think that includes Hat Kid. Not to downplay Hat in Time but I don't see its success story being as big as other, already represented, indie titles, nor do I think the timing's right. The Switch version released just last October, that sounds way to close to the deadline. Also not sure if it has released in Japan.

want: 0%
No offense. Pretty sure Hat in Time is a great game but I'm not really dying to play it right now. Also, I've made it clear there's just one indie character I really want and I'd prefer for nobody else to take that spot.

Arle: 24.76%
Reimu: 21.87%
Reporter and wrestler x5

 

[Sari]

Calc scores:

Tracer
17.37% Chance - 22.73% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was Calamitas with 17.80%
Last time we rated Tracer was in March of 2019, where she got 19.15% Chance and 36.68% Want. And oooooohhhhh boy have a lot of things happened since then. Despite the confirmation of 6 more DLC characters, Banjo possibly opening the door to more Western characters, and Overwatch finally being on a Nintendo console, Tracer's chance score actually went slightly down from last time. One possible explanation for this could be that she has to compete with the ever more likely Crash since they are both technically Activision characters.

Oh and of course there's the elephant in the room: the Blitzchung incident of October 2019, where Blizzard banned a Hearthstone player for voicing his support for the Hong Kong protesters. The banning resulted in a near universal hatred of Blizzard so some may have felt that Nintendo won't want anything to do with the company. Regardless of how the Blitzchung incident may actually affect Tracer's chances, it definitely played a part in the lowering of her want score which dropped by almost 14%. I bet the head of Blizzard wishes he had an enhanced version of Tracer's rewind ability to go back and prevent Blitzchung's ban.

Yes I know Tracer's power doesn't rewind reality, just let me make my joke.

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Thrall
3.07% Chance - 26.50% Want
Winner of chance score predictions was GoodGrief741 with 2.40%
Our last rating of Thrall was in December where he got 6.38% Chance and 39.29% Want. Like fellow Blizzard character Tracer, Thrall suffered a slight drop in chance as well as a dramatic drop in want. Based on people's responses, the lowered want score was a result of both competition with other notable Activision/Blizzard characters like Crash as well as the Hong Kong incident which still haunts Blizzard to this day. And although only a few people brought the topic up, the recent Warcraft III: Reforged debacle could have also played a part in the lessened desire for a WoW rep.

Also WoW wow, the last two Thrall want scores were higher than the last two Tracer want scores. Bear in mind that Thrall's first want score in December was greater than Tracer's first post-launch want score in March, which was months before the Hong Kong incident. Even today's Thrall want score beat out Tracer's by 4% despite World of Warcraft having zero Nintendo presence as of now unlike Overwatch. I guess Overwatch really is that hated around here huh?

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Winners of chance predictions both receive 5 extra noms.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna rate these two together since I have the same thing to say for both.

Hollow Knight and Hat Kid:

Chance: 5% (Hollow Knight)
2% (Hat Kid)

Both are popular indies in the modern day and have seen a good amount of successes on the eShop. So no doubt there's been a decent amount of fan demand for them. However, I don't think they'll be added as playable characters, and will more than likely be Mii Costumes if anything. Originally we thought Sans was a one and done deal due to Undertale's popularity in the east. But it was the Cuphead costume that was the real game changer. I can more than likely see these two as premium Mii Costumes to follow suit, as all four franchises have something in common: Indie titles that started their relationship with Nintendo on the Switch. Then there's Shovel Knight who started on the Wii U and got an assist trophy. Shantae's spirit notwithstanding (though I do still think spirits are a major hit to chances until explicitly proven otherwise), her and Quote are indies that have long lasting legacies with Nintendo, starting on the Gameboy and Wii respectively. Thus I believe Nintendo would choose one of them as the indie rep instead, if at all.

Want: 5% - I don't have much of an attachment to either game, but they would have some extremely unique moves and ideas that I think would be fun to see. However, any competition with one of my most wanted characters (Quote) unfortunately loses points from me. I wouldn't be upset if either of them got in but I do think the first indie rep should be one with legacy.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Reimu - 5.26%
Arle - 15.37%

 

[Ninjaed]

Yeah, don't think any of those characters are what I'd call iconic to the console audience.

Not sure it matters. I figure Smash celebrates gaming as a whole, not just console gaming (e.g. ROB). But I guess that's not something we can know for sure.

Hollow Knight

Chance: 0%
Sans couldn't make it in. Knowing that, I don't see how any other indie could make it in.

Want: abstain
I don't know enough about Hollow Knight to give a proper want rating.

Hat Kid

Chance: 0%
Same as above.

Want: abstain
I'm not sure how smash could reproduce the feeling of how you move in a hat in time. I struggle too much to see how that'd work in a moveset so I'd rather abstain.

Predictions:
Reimu - 11%
Arle - 19%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[Sari]

The Knight

Chance: 5%
Hollow Knight was a very big success but I still think it may be too recent as far as indie characters go. Granted it was on Switch just in time for DLC consideration, but with Sans and Cuphead being mii costumes I feel like the same thing will happen to the Knight due to his recency.

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Hollow Knight so I won't comment.

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Hat Kid

Chance: 0.1%
Not really a frontrunner as far as indie characters go since her game is so recent and she has competition with longer lasting indies. A Hat in Time didn’t even get a Switch release until October of last year and I’m pretty sure the season 2 characters had already been decided before then.

Want: 80%
A Hat in Time is probably my favorite indie game released within the last 10 years or so. It’s pretty much the spiritual successor to Super Mario Sunshine so you owe it to yourself to play it right now. Hat Kid would be a very fun character since they could incorporate the different types of hat abilities into Smash. Some of the hats are even masks, so in a way it'd be like the Majora's Mask Young Link everyone dreamed about in Smash. Only reason this isn't 100% is because there's a certain other indie character I'd like to see make it into Smash first.

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Reimu chance prediction: 48.63% (if the +80% chances scores as well as the few 100% chances scores from last time are anything to go by, the actual final score is going to be laughably high).
Arle chance prediction: 25.39%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: Quote x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Indies who are not Undertale, Shovel Knight, Cuphead, Shantae or Touhou probably won't get high marks from me for chance. Note that at least one is permanently out of the running, another is in jeopardy as it got a character permanently out of the running, and two more may be out if base game promotions don't happen.

For example, Chance for both here today is two zeroes. For reference, both were pretty popular games that come from genres that are popular, but not exactly as relevant as they once were. For Hollow Knight, a Metroidvania, and for A Hat in Time collectathon 3D platform games. But the problem here is that I believe they both made the same debut year as, and were nowhere near as popular as Cuphead, and against older titles didn't have the legacy of Touhou, and didn't have the popularity in the Smash fandom of Shantae, Shovel Knight, or even an Undertale character. Not to mention, all of the Fighters Pass characters, though they have individuals from games as young as not even a year old, come from well established series, the youngest of them being Banjo-Kazooie. I expect this trend to continue. If I could rate Mii Costume chance, I'd give the Knight an 80 and Hat Kid a 70. But this is only for Fighters, so I cannot give too high marks.

Hat Kid Want: 40%. While I've never played her game, I've seen moveset concepts that would describe how she'd likely play. In a pre-Banjo world, we wouldn't have a collectathon character and I'd be a lot more down for that, but nowadays I don't feel the need. Also my priorities are indies that have made a huge splash, and while Hat Kid being discussed here at all can be said to be a testament, it's not really one I feel the need to care about. Overall I'm not that convinced, but A Hat in Time is on my gaming bucket list so let's see if that will do much for me.

The Knight Want: 35%. See what I said for Hat Kid, but we've had a Metroidvania rep from day one of Super Smash Bros. 64, let alone Ultimate. So I'm in a bit less urgent of a care. But I imagine that the Knight would at least have a cool moveset and would probably be a fun glass cannon. Hollow Knight is also on my gaming bucket list.

Paper Mario x 5, I'll save the extra nominations for Arle day. I'm pretty confident in Arle, but I'm not sure how well she's gonna do... 24% on the dot. Reimu I am noticeably less confident in, 11.65%.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm gonna talk about both characters at the same time since they are in a very similar situation.

Chances:
Hat Kid - 3%
Hollow Knight - 3%

In my opinion, indies are done for. Both Sans and Cuphead got special Mii costumes. My biggest concern is that despite Undertale taking the world by storm, all that Sans got was a Mii costume and one song. Cuphead was also requested and is owned by Microsoft who is very chummy with Nintendo, yet he only got a premium Mii costume. What this tells us is that most likely, there will be more Mii costumes for indie characters and if Hat Kid and Hollow Knight were to get into the game, they would likely end up as Mii costumes. If it's taking this long for us to get just one indie character, the latest we will get one will maybe be in the next Smash game (If there is ever going to be another one).

That's not to say that it's impossible. Both Hat Kid and Hollow Knight are on the Switch, have viable movesets, have a moderate amount of requests, and at least in Hollow Knight's case, is from a critically acclaimed game. Still, with most likely only 6 more characters left, I can't see any indie characters making it. Plus if we were to get one indie rep, it would likely be someone like Shantae or Shovel Knight who has more fan demand and history. And even then, I think the most they will get is a premium Mii costume. I just have a feeling that will be the fate for any and all indie reps considered for playable status.

Want: Abstain from both characters. I've never played Hollow Knight or Hat in Time.

Predictions:
Reimu - 30% (she is a controversial character when it comes to likelihood. This could go in all sorts of directions.)
Arle - 45% (I'm less confident in her now, but I think she is still likely)

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Hollow Knight
Chance: 3%
I think there is a much better chance for him to get a super mii costume or whatever it's called. The only reason I have him at 3% and not 0% like the other indy characters is because of how well the game sold. He's pretty dead.

Want: 80%
Hollow Knight is a great game. I really don't think the moveset of a Mii Swordfighter does him justice at all. I want him to be a full character

Hat Kid
Chance: 0%
Hat Kid is dead. Indy games aren't getting playable characters, they're getting super costumes. Hat Kid doesn't have anything to get them any different treatment

Want: 0%
This is the start of clump of characters that will be getting a 0% want score from me. There are a few breaks in between, but still. The reason for my 0 here is really don't think Hat Kid deserves it. Sans, Cuphead, Shantae, and Shovel Knight all didn't get in despite being much more well known and wanted. Why should Hat Kid get to leapfrog them, Hollow Knight, and Quote? Hard pass here.

Noms:
Octopath Rep x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Hollow Knight

Chance 10 - The game was a complete hit on the switch. That helps his chances a lot and things are looking better for him now that we're on a fighters pass he's not too late for. We're also getting another game in the series and Nintendo is clearly high on it and Team Cherry, who I believe was a part of a big pitch recently(I want to say it was China but IDK on that). Overall though, he's still an indie and indie reps have gotten basically everything but playable so far. I dont think that changes now. Hornet also would make more sense to promote Silksong, which is apparently due out this year. Think Hollow Knight is more likely as a Premium Mii Costume, which would be fine with me.

Want 100 - I loved this game. The music, the art, the lore. Just all of it. Fantastic game. If I hadn't played it IDK what I'd think about the Knight in Smash, but I enjoyed the game so much I'd love to see it. Feel like if the Knight was a first party Nintendo character he'd feel like a lock right now.


Abstaining on Hat Kid. While I dont think the chances are good I dont know enough about it at all to give a fair judgement on it. Think it might be more closer to the Mii Costume treatment than playable though.

Predictions
Arle - 45%
Reimu - 50%(If last time was any indication things are gonna get really stupid with this character again)

Noms
Big Daddy x5

 

[Calamitas]

I wager there's something bugging him

Chance: 5%
I don't see it happening. Sure, Hollow Knight was a rather successful game and is getting a sequel, but Undertale, Cuphead, Shantae and Shovel Knight, who are arguably bigger series, couldn't manage to get a playable fighter. There's just no conceivable scenario to me where Hollow Knight is getting a playable fighter when these three series aren't.

Want: Abstain
Never played Hollow Knight.

The elusive protagonist of Team Fortress 2

Chance: 0%
There isn't really much to say. A Hat in Time is nowhere near as much of a success as the aforementioned indies, and doesn't really have anything going for it over other series.

Want: Abstain.
See above want rating.

Predicting Reimu to get around 22.22%.
Predicting Alre to get around 33.33%.

Nominating Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x10.

 

[MasterOfKnees]

The Knight:

Chance: 3% - My stance on indie characters' likelihood is pretty much that if Shovel Knight and Sans couldn't make the leap, then it's unlikely anyone will. Hollow Knight does get advertised a lot by Nintendo, even internationally, so at least there's a strong connection there, but I imagine that only counts for so much.

Want: 100% - Hollow Knight is just an exceptional game, if not for Ultimate itself it would have been my favorite game of the past decade, it basically perfects the Metroidvania formular. The world is so well stitched together, the abilities you get are cool as hell, movement is extremely fun, the artstyle is top notch, the soundtrack is stellar, the lore is captivating, and the boss battles are varied and engaging. It just does everything right, it's only my extreme bias in favor of Metroid that makes me still put Super Metroid above it as far as Metroidvanias are concerned, and that I consider it just as good, if not better than Metroid Prime is just about the highest praise I can give a game.

Even putting that aside, the fact that The Knight is so much fun to play in his own game would likely translate very well into Smash, a lot of his abilities could just be 1:1 copies and still work. The Soul mechanic also lends itself pretty naturally to Smash, although it would need some differentiating from both Cloud's Limit and Hero's MP, as it's basically just an in between of those two. As much as I'd love for The Knight to be in though, I do realize just how unlikely he is, so even if Hollow Knight ended up just getting a Spirit Event or something, I'd still be very happy, because I really just want the game to be represented in some form. And just for the record, Hornet would be just as cool.

Abstain on Hat Kid, I don't know nearly enough about the character or her series to make any educated comments.

 

[Louie G.]

The Knight

Chance: 2%
I wish I could be a little more generous, but... like other people said before me if Shovel Knight, Shantae, Cuphead and especially Sans got passed on, what makes The Knight stand out above the rest? Well Hollow Knight is a pretty cool game and certainly one of the more prestigious indie titles as of late. But based on the precedent we've seen, that just makes him the PERFECT Mii Costume. I can totally just imagine his big ol head on a Mii Swordfighter. If he got in that would be pretty sick! But there's no real reason for me to believe he would be the exception to what has been shown thus far. It would feel odd for him to get precedent over the characters I mentioned before.

So with that said...

Hat Kid

Chance: 0.5%
Hat Kid is in a pretty similar situation, except she has the disadvantage of having the developers of Hat in Time straight up imply that they were never approached about it. This doesn't disqualify her from also getting a costume or spirits later on, but it's a pretty significant hit toward her already small chances.

These two are rising stars, but I believe they're a little bit too new. And someone like Sans is relatively pretty new also, but his legacy and notoriety has already reached pretty insurmountable heights. If we did get an indie character, assuming Sans and Shovel Knight are completely out of the picture, I believe Shantae is the only one with a shot and that relies on a number of variables that make her chances pretty minimal too. It's a shame, I would have liked an indie character to be in the game considering how important indie games have become, and I like just about every character I've mentioned here.

Predictions:
Reimu - 17.6%
Arle - 26.75%

Nominations: Travis Touchdown x5

 

[NintenRob]

The knight
Chance 4%
Hollow Knight is definitely a popular indie character, but he's no Sans, Shovel Knight or even Shantae. Playable indie characters I just don't think it happening
Want 1%
Haven't played it, not really interested. There are just a lot more I'd prefer

Hat Kid
Chance: 0%
It was well loved, but Smash requests are rare. And I honestly don't see people talk about it anymore.
Want:2%
I'd like to play a Hat in Time, but I've heard mixed things about the Switch version. We need more good 3D platformers.


Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

Prediction
Reimu 14%
Arle 32%

 

[3DSNinja]

Oh boi...
Chance:15%: Yeah, he's likelier than y'all have said. Nintendo considers Team Cherry as an important third party, as we saw in the switch's launch in China. Hollow Knight got a sequel, and sold well. I can see him happening tbh. However, Freddy, Quote, and Reimu are bigger indies that would probably get in first.
Want:100%: The Knight is from my favorite game of 2017 (yes, even beating Persona 5 and Sonic Mania). And he could be awesome in smash, with his spells, soul, charms, and so much more. I want him badly.
Not happening:
Chance:0%: Confirmed by the devs Nintendo never approached them. Even if we didn't have that confirmation, she's still a zero in my book. Her game is tiny compared to Hollow Knight, Shantae, FNAF, Undertale, Shovel Knight, Cave Story, and Touhou, which are the front runners in terms of indies in smash. I just don't see this happening... ever.
Abstain on want, as I still haven't played Hat in Time.
Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I can't quite tell where the indies stand as far as DLC, given the current circumstances (one is an Assist Trophy, one is a base game Spirit, and two are deluxe Mii costumes). That being said, I would be perfectly fine with Hat Kid in Smash.

Nominations: Freddy Fazbear x5

 

[Sid-cada]

The Knight

Chance - 0% - Hollow Knight is a good game with a sequel in the works, but that does not seem to be enough right now. If Sans of all characters can't make it, I doubt any western inde could.

Want - 60% - Perhaps a touch vanilla, but it would be interesting. I bought the game, but still need to get around to playing it. Still, I can at least see why he would be chosen.


Hat Kid

Chance - 0% - Take everything I said about the Knight, plus a direct disconfirmation. I don't think there is much that can make her go lower.

Want - 60% - Really just copy paste what I said above for the Knight here too. She'd be fun if not quite as revolutionary, but honestly that's all I need.


Nominations

De Blob X5

 

[axel_]

THE KNIGHT

Chance: 10%

Considering the fate of all the indies so far (Shovel Knight is an AT, Shantae is a Spirit, Cuphead and Sans are Mii Costumes) I don't really think many other indies are gonna get a very good shot at Fighter.
However I do think of all the remaining contenders that could be a Fighter, The Knight has one of the best shots aside from Quote and Reimu (who simply because of the adoration of the game in Japan, but even then he has less impact and history than those two.
His best shot at this point is as a Mii Costume, which is pretty much guaranteed at this point.

Want: 70%

I enjoyed my time with Hollow Knight and Metroidvanias are always a natural fit for Smash. The Knight, or even Hornet, would be aesthetically unique and could even offer a great moveset.


HAT KID

Chance: -15%

Hat Kid in Smash is a fan thought and that's all she'll ever be. Not only have A Hat In Time's devs said flat-out she wasn't happening, her game is much smaller than every other indie that's gotten represented in Smash, and the timing of A Hat In Time's Switch port had poor timing. She is not happening.

Want: 0%

There are dozens of other indies that could offer better movesets and could fit better as icons of gaming than Hat Kid.


Nominations: Monokuma (Danganronpa) x5

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

The thing I find interesting about Hollow Knight is that Team Cherry is getting a lot of clout with Nintendo, they’ve been putting on a pedestal above other indie games.

here was a press release image from the Nintendo Switches launch in China, boasting the support it will get from various game companies. Sandwiched between Square Enix and Ubisoft, some of the most prominent game companies in the world, is the 3 person Team Cherry. The presentation had a whole other slide dedicated to Indie developers and games, but curious enough, Hollow Knight and Team Cherry was with other major developers and their games instead.

This trend also continues in other places, such as this official schedule of 2020 releases.

again, no other indies besides Hollow Knight: Silksong appear in Nintendo’s lineup of games. (Minecraft was indie, but it’s been owned and developed by Microsoft for 6 years.)

I know not everything has to do with Smash, but I also think it’s not too outrageous to believe it’s possible that Team Cherry would already have their foot in the door with Nintendo in negotiations. Nintendo already seems to see Team Cherry as a partner seeing as Hollow Knight’s sequel is a console exclusive on Switch.

The counterpoint I see keep brought up against The Knight is that Shovel Knight, Shantae, sans, and Cuphead are not in a playable character position, therefore The Knight will not be playable either. Do remember that these info characters were negotiated quite awhile ago, I would think the overwhelming positive reception indie inclusions have received in Smash would motivate Nintendo to pursue an indie character with this new pass rather than close the door on it because the character might not be as “big of a deal” as other indies already in non-playable roles.

Also I think some people are underestimating how well Hollow Knight did, by February of 2019 it amounted to 2.8 million sales. That’s more than Shovel Knight’s 2.65 million sales that had a 3 year lead. But even then sales or iconicness are not the be all, end all to character inclusions. Often times it’s
simply whose been talking.
- - - - -

Chance: 20% Still very much a dark horse, but not as impossible as others might think.

Want: 70% I only know Hollow Knight from conversations from a friend and have yet to play it for myself. That said, The Knight has a really appealing design to me, I’ve always had a fascination with knights in shining armor, masks, and insects, so Hollow Knight seems like a dream I never knew I wanted.

Nominations: Kiryu x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

I think both of these games came out in 2017. Neat, huh?

Chance: 5%
As far as I'm concerned, right now, there's 4 indie characters I think have a chance to join Smash. Shovel Knight, due to his immense influence and demand. Reimu and Quote due to their huge legacy and influence. And Shantae because of sheer fan demand. If I believed that creating a moveset for an Undertale character was possible, that'd be on an equal level as UT's popularity is nigh-unmatched. Cuphead, as much as I love it, is a tier below, because while successful, it's not as successful as UT, he's not as demanded as Shantae, and Cuphead certainly didn't spawn a wave of Indies or copycats. Maybe when it gets a sequel, but not now. Though being a Mii Costume certainly elevates him a bit, I'd say.

Anyway, all other Indies are below imo. Both Hollow Knight and A Hat in Time were pretty big hits commercially and critically - for indie games, that is. They were both recognized as great examples of their genres in the modern day (imo, aided by the fact that we're barely getting Metroidvanias and 3D platformers nowadays). But honestly, I don't see much. Having one good and profitable game is not the bar for Smash entry - but less for Indies, which have lowered standards. HK is helped by having a sequel coming up, but I'm not seeing much buzz about it despite the first game's success (and the fact that Smashboards and a number of irl friends are huge fans). I don't know how popular they are in Japan, which could be a factor. Honestly, I'm just not sure if these games are going to be fondly remembered as classics, or if they'll be forgotten as the next indie sensation comes along. Remember Axiom Verge? Remember when that was one of the premiere indie titles, a must-play modern take on the Metroidvania? Now nobody cares, even as a sequel's announced.

Could Hollow Knight and Hat Kid join the fray? Sure, it's not like they're obscure or anything, Nintendo's picking the characters so maybe they want to advertise games that are probably going to do best on their consoles. But honestly I think Mii Costume is the best they can hope for. Not even sure they'll get there though.

Edit: I forgot to mention that I see both games as below Cuphead in every aspect. Cuphead obviously sold better, and I also feel like it has much more prestige, earning many more nominations and awards. Its laborious art style probably helped, but still.

Want: 0% (Knight) 5% (Kid)
Nothing against them. Hat in Time looks right up my alley aesthetics-wise, so that's why I'm giving Hat Kid those 5%. But I want a Smash roster to feel timeless, like you can look at the picks ten years down the line and still feel like those are great picks. Sure, that doesn't always happen , but it's still an ideal worth striving to, I think.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Arle and Reimu predictions: I predict that tomorrow is gonna suck, both characters are going to see ridiculously high ratings and I'm grateful that Sari's doing calcs this time. Oh, and scores are going to be way too high, because I feel like the rest are going to give fair ratings that will be skewed upwards by droves of fans. Arle 47.24% and Reimu 59.81%

 

[GoodGrief741]

As it turns out, when people don't want a character, they'll make up a ton of **** to justify giving them low chance scores. Huh.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Tracer/Thrall pre-The Knight/Hat Kid

Freddy Fazbear x200
Kazuma Kiryu x180
The Blob (De Blob) x165
Crypto x150
Carmen Sandiego x145
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x125
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x125

100 - 51

Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110
Reporter & Wrestler x95
Ryo Hazuki x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Big Daddy (BioShock) x75
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Chun-Li x65
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x65
Decidueye x65
Meowth x64
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x61

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Ring Fit Adventurer x50
Segata Sanshiro x50
Earthworm Jim x45
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
[Rerate] Paper Mario x45
Mii Costume: Quote x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Concept: Darksiders rep x30
Bubsy x30
Boss: Ender Dragon x29
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x22
Concept: DLC music packs x20
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x20
Terra Branford x18
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x15
[Rerate] Kratos x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
Black Shadow x8
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
[Rerate] Monokuma x5
Concept: Level-5 rep x5
Zeraora x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Gnar (League of Legends) x5
Gooigi x5
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x4
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2
Taranza x1

Concept: Octopath Traveler rep defeats Mii Costume: Hollow Knight - who falls off the top seven, and just on his day too! - and ties with Travis Touchdown for sixth place.

A new challenger approaches... His name is Gooigi, and he carries 5 noms.

 

[Cadillac]

I don't know how popular they are in Japan, which could be a factor.

http://www.nintendolife.com/news/20...st_recommended_digital_switch_game_this_month
Here. This shows that HK is also quite popular in Japan.

My take:

Knight: 11%
An indie success and also somewhat a fan-favorite, I think our little Knight has some shot. Like King Sonnn DeDeDoo's post, Nintendo likes Team Cherry, even putting Silksong in one of the major lookouts of 2020.
Also, I really don't like the argument of "Sans didn't get in, so nobody can." Yes, Sans is popular and only got in as a costume, but is every other indie destined to be the same? Is it that bad to give some other games a shot? If Nintendo wants to promote a game, they will do it. Byleth was one example. Too many FE characters? Well, have more because Three Houses DLC is coming!
With these reasons, I think we might see a HK character in the future.

Want: 70%. I prefer Hornet than Knight, but Knight is cool too. Make him a Pikachu sized fighter that can constantly shoot powerful projectiles.

Abstain on Hat Kid. Never played A Hat in Time before.

Reimu: 17%
Arle: 40%

 

[Lionfranky]

I think both of these games came out in 2017. Neat, huh?

Chance: 5%
As far as I'm concerned, right now, there's 4 indie characters I think have a chance to join Smash. Shovel Knight, due to his immense influence and demand. Reimu and Quote due to their huge legacy and influence. And Shantae because of sheer fan demand. If I believed that creating a moveset for an Undertale character was possible, that'd be on an equal level as UT's popularity is nigh-unmatched. Cuphead, as much as I love it, is a tier below, because while successful, it's not as successful as UT, he's not as demanded as Shantae, and Cuphead certainly didn't spawn a wave of Indies or copycats. Maybe when it gets a sequel, but not now. Though being a Mii Costume certainly elevates him a bit, I'd say.

Undertale 2.8 million
Cuphead 5 million

 

[King Sonnn DeDeDoo]

Undertale 2.8 million
Cuphead 5 million

Do you have sources for that number for Undertale? I couldn’t find anything concrete for Undertale sales when researching how well each of the indie games in Smash sold.

 

[fogbadge]

the main characters of two of my favourite indie games? how can i resist

the knight

chances: 50% more popular indie characters havent made it so its a bit hard to think it could be him, but then sakurai has chosen to forgo popularity in some cases so i should think that hes still a distinct possibility. i think hollow knight has done well enough that someone at the smash team would have looked into it.

want: 100% i really liked hollow knight and would love to see some of it in smash

hat kid

chances: 45% i would think most of the stuff i said in regards to the knight would also apply here but i think a hat in time is a little less known so i think that would make her a little less likely

want: 100% i loved a hat in time i would love to have her here

 

[Jomosensual]

As it turns out, when people don't want a character, they'll make up a ton of **** to justify giving them low chance scores. Huh.

Ironically, we'll get the opposite side of this when the day changes next

 

[Louie G.]

Do you have sources for that number for Undertale? I couldn’t find anything concrete for Undertale sales when researching how well each of the indie games in Smash sold.

Well a quick google search already says 3.5 million off Steam alone, so they're already wrong and that isn't even factoring in PS4 or Switch.

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-precise-player-count-for-thousands-of-games/

 

[chocolatejr9]

Um, we might have another deconfirmation, though this one is a bit more vague.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

 

[Jomosensual]

Um, we might have another deconfirmation, though this one is a bit more vague.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Unless there's more to that I don't think that is at all.

 

[Sari]

For crying out loud... do I really gotta repeat what I said on Tracer's day when the same thing happened regarding Overwatch in Smash?

Ed Boon only mentioned MK in Smash because someone asked him about it in an interview.

It was just a general "yeah I'd be down for it!" response and nothing damning like in the recent Doom interview. What else was he supposed to say?

What if I ask Harada if he wants Heihachi in Smash and he says yes? Does this mean Heihachi will never be in Ultimate because of Harada's generic answer? If in early 2019 I asked the Dragon Quest series director if he wanted a character in Smash and he gives a standard "yeah I'd like that" response, does this mean Sakurai has to stop working on Hero and cut him from the game?

I couldn't care less about Mortal Kombat and I don't see Scorpion ever being playable, but this is nowhere near a deconfirmation.

EDIT: I apologize for my attitude when I wrote this. I just hate when the internet as a whole takes and spreads things without context.

 

[chocolatejr9]

For crying out loud... do I really gotta repeat what I said on Tracer's day when the same thing happened regarding Overwatch in Smash?

Ed Boon only mentioned MK in Smash because someone asked him about it in an interview.

It was just a general "yeah I'd be down for it!" response and nothing damning like in the recent Doom interview. What else was he supposed to say?

What if I ask Harada if he wants Heihachi in Smash and he says yes? Does this mean Heihachi will never be in Ultimate because of Harada's generic answer? If in early 2019 I asked the Dragon Quest series director if he wanted a character in Smash and he gives a standard "yeah I'd like that" response, does this mean Sakurai has to stop working on Hero and cut him from the game?

I couldn't care less about Mortal Kombat and I don't see Scorpion ever being playable, but this is nowhere near a deconfirmation.

Sorry, I just wanted to bring it up, just in case. It could imply that Nintendo hasn't talked to them about it, so I figured I should mention it.

 

[Ninjaed]

Poor Sari, driven insane every time a new interview pops up.

 

[ProfPeanut]

If you asked me who'd be following Undertale in Smash's next indie cameos, I would not have given you Cuphead, but the fact that this is the case instead of Cave Story or even Shovel Knight forces us to re-examine how Nintendo views the prospect of indies in Smash.

It's interesting to note that Cuphead, Hollow Knight, and A Hat in Time are all successful crowdfunded indies that released in 2017 to revitalize their respective genres. So it makes one wonder how Cuphead, the one with perhaps the least roots to Nintendo games, was the one that they elected to give a costume to first. Perhaps the old-school cartoon art style really appealed to the Japanese. Perhaps Banjo's inclusion opened a door through which they could easily negotiate with Studio MDHR.

Or maybe it's the fact that Cuphead hasn't fallen from the Top 5 Best Selling Switch games on the eShop since its release. Because wow, that'd really suck for other indies if that was the case. Then again, Minecraft and Stardew Valley have been on that list for even longer, and there's no sign either of them are getting a shot at this.

Character slots are kind of out of the question in both cases unless they get really lucky, but they're still worth discussing since they'd easily slot in as Mii Costumes. Hey, any representation is better than none, especially if you're an indie.


Insectoidvania

Chance: 5%
Things haven't changed very much for Hollow Knight - Silksong hasn't come out yet. But at least Nintendo recognizes the power they have in getting Silksong before other platforms.

Similarly to Shovel Knight, Hollow Knight mostly gained traction in speculation just by hitting peak popularity during a speculation cycle. That momentum carried it all throughout 2019 too (at least, as well as any candidate could be carried) so I'm certain Nintendo's heard the noise by now. But Japan doesn't seem to care very much about the genre that they accidentally made, leaving the West with the difficult prospect of convincing the East that such an inclusion would be worthwhile.

I don't know if it hurts that the Knight won't be the playable character of Silksong or that he doesn't seem to have a proper name, but he's iconic enough even without such things.

Want: 30%
I thought we were trying to avoid more sword wielders? Oh wait, it's a nail? Carry on then.

I kid, it's hard to deny ghost/soul shenanigans, and Hollow Knight's aesthetic really has no equal anywhere else.


What's with this...sassy, lost child?

Chance: 3%
A Hat in Time is passing into its postlaunch period with relative grace. It has an active modding scene, a decent fan community behind it, and it finally launched all its content on the Switch. So what's in the way?

Well, in the grand scale of things, A Hat in Time fell into the ranks of the other "Yet Another Indies". After a decent launch day, it fell off the top-sellers list entirely, and hadn't made any big strides in popularity since. Meanwhile, Yooka-Laylee semi-redeemed itself with a 2.5D platformer in that time? You're lagging behind, Gears for Breakfast.

Then again, that's not super surprising. Even though it has a similar history to Hollow Knight, Gears For Breakfast (the developers of AHiT) has proven to be a little less impressive in terms of output compared to Team Cherry. Call it the challenges of making a 3D game compared to a 2D one, but I'd probably award recognition to the latter before the former, even as a platformer enthusiast.

Want: 30%
Did you know Hat Kid only has two basic attack moves? That's not a lot to go off of, hats included, and it reminds one of the result of Banjo's translation into Smash.

She's still an appealing character, but she's got to work harder for her popularity now that her game's well and truly out.


Nominations
Gooigi x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

More Indie competitors

Chance: 0.01%

I'm rating them both with the same score mainly because they have the same situation. That the more popular Indie games Undertale and Cuphead were represented with Premium mii costumes. Which more or less means it's unlikely for Hat Kid and Hollow Knight, so they'll likely follow Sans's and Cuphead's footsteps.. And the only one I see getting in as playable is Reimu Hakurei anyways.

Want: 1%

I'm not too keen on most of the Indie characters, including these two. The only Indie I actually want is Reimu.

Reimu Prediction: 22.66%

Arle Nadja: 37.77%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x5

 

[Lionfranky]

Well a quick google search already says 3.5 million off Steam alone, so they're already wrong and that isn't even factoring in PS4 or Switch.

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2018...-precise-player-count-for-thousands-of-games/

Sorry. I should've mentioned that by the time Cuphead reached 5 million mark, Undertale was at 2.8 million. Sure, there are PS4, Xbox One and Switch versions, but how well did they sell? And Cuphead mark was also time when it wasn't released on Switch yet iirc.