Rate Their Chances- Smash Ultimate Day 357: Quote (Cave Story)

[TCT~Phantom]

I’m ending today at noon.

Abstain on Louie

X5 sora rerate

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Well, it's past noon, so imma just go now...


RICOOKINE

Oh, it's the first dream friend besides the power four Kirby Characters. Neat. Do I think we are going to get any Kirby reps besides Bandana Dee? No, not really. Do I think it is very much possible? Absolutely.

Edit: This is so sad. Alexa, play "I spent 45 minutes working on a rating and I accidentally refreshed the page before I saved the post."

I am going to sum up everything that I said, because I put a lot of time and effort into writing a very formal review of the topic, and don't want to recreate my post word for word, for it'd take too long to do that. My points were that if Nintendo wanted to make a Pokemon Trainer-esque trio character, then each character would have to have an equal moveset. Kine simply couldn't work in Smash if very limited amounts of stages contain water. Still, Nintendo could make it work if it played as it did in Star Allies. The chance was 7.5%

From there, I talked about by Kirby bias and the uniqueness of all of Kirby's Dream Friends, interjecting on how many times Kirby has been discussed in the RTC with Gooey and Daroach as and coming nominations, Marx and Bandana Dee already being talked about, and Adeleine making her way up as well. I then lamented over Magolor, Prince Fluff, and Galacta Knight never appearing in the Wave 3 of Dream Friends, before discussing my love of Bandana Dee and why Rick, Coo, and Kine fell just under Marx in 3rd place as a new Kirby rep in want. I also discussed how having Dream Friends in general would be a great idea, but Kine simply is a hindrance to their chances. The want was 30%

Nominations: Quote x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

HAMMOND SKOWL & MAGIKARP
Chance: 1%
Want: 5%

Notice how I took 1 video game character of each animal for this one? No? Ok.

I honestly don't see this one happening at all. Rick Coo and Kine were not requested at all during the ballot, they only started gaining a small amount of popularity thanks to Star Allies, and there's no way they're getting in over Bandana Dee.

Predictions: DeMille: 0%
Reimu: 0%
(Let me know if tomorrow is a different character)

Nominations: Xurkitree x5 (Won't stop until first place.)

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I thought I changed the day my bad.

 

[aarchak]

Oh we're good? Okay.

Rick, Kine, and Coo

Chance: 0% Base 0% DLC
There are many Kirby characters that are higher priority than these 3, and they're not nearly iconic enough to the franchise to warrant a character spot. Even if Kirby got 3 new reps, they would probably go to Bandana Waddle Dee, Marx, and Magolor.
Want: ABSTAIN
I don't actually know enough about these characters to form a real opinion on them.

Nominations
Character alternate costume DLC x5

 

[Opossum]

Abstaining on chance.

Want: 100%
Rick is adorable. I love hamsters. Owls and fish are also great.

Merric x5

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Rick, Kine, and Coo

Chances: 0%: Let's be real, the trio isn't happening. First off, as much as I'd like more transforming characters, Pokémon Trainer seems to be the ONLY one, and everyone else who did is now separate. This probably means a new transformative character isn't going to be an option. Second off, in Star Allies each Animal Friend compliments their terrain abilities, but Kine is always going to be at a disadvantage because water is a hazard in Smash. They're not going to change how water works for one of a trio character out of principle. MAYBE Rick or Coo on his own would make for a decent Dark Matter representative, but nothing else.

Want: 40%: Eh. Something tells me they should be mandatory assist trophies, but even in terms of a Dark Matter representative I'd say there are better options. Despite being three of the few outside characters that made regular appearances in the modern games AND the anime (possibly the only three to do both) only Star Allies has put them front and center, and at the same time they released the more popular Marx. I think Gooey with cameos of all the Animal Friends (not just the three) would be a better option. Without a central focus, they're not gonna be Smash-worthy.

Nominations

Adeleine x5 (I can do this again, right? It's been a while.)

 

[Kotor]

Rick, Coo, and Kine

Chance: 0%
Want: Abstain

A trios character? Uh one of them is a fish. Going by this video, it doesn't do much when it's not on water.

It really feels like the hamster and owl are the ones doing all the work, with I guess a final smash of all them doing something together. I never touched the Kirby game these three are from, and I don't own Star Allies either so all I got are videos for reference. I'd take Bandana Waddle Dee over these three.

Black Knight as a boss character x5

 

[Sari]

Rick, Coo & Kine

How would this even work? Would it just be Rick with Coo & Kine helping out, or would they be separate characters like Pokemon Trainer? I'm going to assume it's the first option since the second one has no chance of ever happening.

Chance: 1%
If we are getting another Kirby rep it is going to be Bandana Dee since he is easily the most popular of the bunch. Even if Bandana Dee is ignored, Rick has to compete with Magolor, Adeleine, and Marx who are more requested from what I understand.

Want: 15%
Could be nice to have the 3 as a single character to pay tribute to the Dream Land games, and Rick is a pretty reoccurring character in the series. If we were to get another Kirby rep though I'd prefer Bandana Dee or Marx though.

Nominations:
Kat & Ana x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Damn, been seeing a lot of hate for Olimar around here. You people need to rethink your lives.

Also, today is the last day you can change the course of the next schedule. Make those nominations count.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Louie pre-Rick, Coo & Kine

Kyo Kusanagi x212
Balloon Fighter x192
Concept: More than five unique newcomers (excl. Ridley/Daisy/Inkling) x190
Dovahkiin x190
Papyrus x185
Tsubasa Oribe x160
Concept: All-Star Versus x158

200 - 151

Snip & Clip (Snipperclips) x155
Fire Emblem Three Houses Protagonist x155
Edelgard x155
Black Knight as a boss character x155
Concept: Octopath Traveller Character x151

150 - 101

Item: Beast Ball x150
Concept: Punch Out Newcomer x145
Susie Haltmann x139
Barbara the Bat x137
Project Zero/Fatal Frame Protagonist x132
Stage: Poke Floats x130
Merric (Fire Emblem) x130
Sans as a boss character x127
2B x126
Slime x121
Guzma (Pokémon) x120
Daroach x120
Zeraora (Pokemon) x118
Klonoa x117
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115
Concept: Pikmin Newcomer x115
Concept: Character alternate costume DLC x115
Pokemon Trainer (Gen 2) x114
Gooey x113
Xurkitree (Pokémon) x113
Raiden (Metal Gear) x110
The Prince (Katamari) x110
Concept: Cross series Echoes x105
Rhythm Girl x105
Saki Amamiya x105
Tora & Poppi x102

100 - 51

Concept: Ken Masters alt Costume for Ryu x96
Viewtiful Joe x95
Concept: Only 4-6 newcomers for base roster x90
Silvally x86
Chorus Kids x77
Yu Narakumi x76
Frank West x75
Veronica x73
Concept: Historical Character x70
Concept: Any Minecraft representation x69
Earthworm Jim x69
9-Volt x68
[Rerate] Steve? x66
Item: Breidablik x65
Toon Zelda x65
Endou Mamoru x62
Joker (Persona) x59
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei Character x56
Leo (Fire Emblem) x55
[Rerate] Sora x55
Concept: Wars Characters x53
Takumi (Fire Emblem) x51

50 - 25

Concept: DLC character pass x50
Concept: Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x50
Stage: Melemele Island x50
Quote x48
[Rerate] Spyro x45
Donbe and Hikari (Shin Onigashima) x44
Concept: Unique newcomer with low support (less than 20 supporters on Smashboards) x40
Concept: Xenoblade newcomer x40
Adeleine x39
Stage: Ultra Space x35
Assist Trophy: Chun-Li x35
Box Theory x34
Kat & Ana x28
Dixie Kong & Kiddy Kong x25
Blacephalon (Pokemon) x25
Master Chief x25

Under 25

Blog Theory x24
Concept: Unique puzzle game rep x22
[Rerate] Gengar x22
[Rerate] Concept: Zelda newcomer x20
Stage: Yoshi’s Crafted World x20
Sub-Zero x17
Concept: Modern Kirby Stage (Post Kirby Air Ride) x15
Concept: Custom Moves return x15
Concept: Custom Alternate Colors x15
Alexandra Roivas x15
[Rerate] Cranky Kong x15
Big Boss x15
[Rerate] Excitebiker x11
[Rerate] Porky Minch x11
Ryuhi (Flying Dragon) x10
Metal Sonic x10
Dr. Lobe (Big Brain Academy) x10
Cross (Xenoblade Chronicles X) x10
Break the Targets x10
Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x10
Concept: Dragon Quest content x10
Bub & Bob x10
Conker x10
Concept: Danganronpa music x10
Volleyball Girl (NES Volleyball) x8
Stage Builder x8
Zeke (Xenoblade 2) x6
Stage: Gyromite Stage x5
Nia (Hyrule Warriors) x5
Concept: Valve Newcomer x5
Stage: SR388 x5
Concept: Playable Indie Character x5
Blaze the Cat x5
Alm x5
[Rerate] Octoling x5
Yandere Chan (Yandere Simulator) x5
Concept: Team Rocket as a Pokémon Trainer Echo x5
Cooking Mama x5
Playable Master Hand x5
Pam (Stardew Valley) x5
Captain Syrup x5
Concept: Return of Palutena’s Guidance/Codec Calls x5
Concept: Free DLC characters x5
Jin (Xenoblade) x5
Concept: Assist Trophy DLC x5
[Rerate] Black Shadow x5
Doshin the Giant x5
Stage: Mute City Melee x5
[Rerate] Lloyd Irving x5
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x5
Bartz Klauser x5
Stage: Tetris x5
Elite Beat Agents x5
Erdrick x5
King Hippo x4
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x4
Concept: New Yoshi item x4
Black Mage x4
Stanley the Bugman x3
[Rerate] Ninten x3
Creeper x3
Concept: WarioWare newcomer x2
Concept: F-Zero newcomer x2
Assist Trophy: Creeper x2
Diskun x1
Item: Wumpa Fruit x1
Birdo x1
Goomba x1

Edelgard and Black Knight as a boss character cut past 150 nominations. Will they break into the top 7?

Rhythm Girl, Saki Amamiya and Concept: Cross series Echoes cross 100 noms. They are now safe from the purge.

Sora unlocks the 50 nomination barrier.

Dee Dude you have 6 nominations yesterday, so I didn’t count them. Sorry.

 

[Nemuresu]

Kirby's Furry Friends
Chance: 1%-I honestly don't think these guys can ever make it outside of trophies. Everyone champions Bandana Dee, and those who don't go with the likes of Marx and Adeleine. Oh, and Star Allies released way too late to have any influence on Smash's roster.
Want: 10%- They're cute, I'll give them that. But as far as gameplay goes? Not really interested in them.
Nominations: DLC character pass x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Rick Kine Coo
Chance: 0%
Getting in as an Dream Friend in Star Allies doesn't make you a viable Smash contender, sorry. If we're getting a Kirby newcomer it will be one based of ballot popularity, which they obviously didn't and couldn't have with Star Allies being revealed almost two years after the ballot ended. Even now, I see almost nobody asking for them. They are being overshadowed by literally every other Dream Friend. They also weren't relevant around the project plan, only being important in Dream land 2 and 3, which aren't even games where Sakurai was involved in.
Lastly I'd imagine desinging them would be something very difficult. They likely don't have enough potential to each have their own moveset, meaning they wouldn't work like . Making them play like they do in Star Allies, swapping each other out for each action probably wouldn't be much easier. All those animations would be too much of an hassle to be worth it.

Also one of them is a fish... who can't do much other than just splash around outside of water. Water only appears in a handfull of stages and you can't even fight while swimming, making Kine kine-da pointless...

Want: 0%
There are only a few Kirby characters I want. These don't fall under those. I haven't played Dream Land 2 and 3, unfortunately.

The Prince x3
Punch Out newcomer x2

 

[FancySmash]

Hamtaro, Kaepora Gaebora, and 1 fish, 2 fish, it's the blue fish

Chance: 3% (one for each animal)
I think a lot of the characters added to Star Allies after it's release (in essence, DLC) don't have a great shot, as the timing with Smash Ultimate's release. I could maybe see with DLC, but even then, the animal trio probably has the worst chance. Whereas Bandana Dee and Magolor have ballot support, and Marx and Adeleine are gaining traction thanks to Star Allies, Rick, Coo, and Kine don't seem to have either luxury. There's also the method of making them work moveset wise. As mentioned already, Kine will get the short end of the stick thanks to needing water. I'd love to see an assist trophy with them though, where the player who opens said assist trophy can ride the animal buddies until they reach a certain percent.

Want: 20%
I could get behind it, but I'd need to see a really good proof of concept. Besides, I'd be happy just to get Bandana Dee, though after getting the spear toting Waddle Dee, I'd be happy to see other Kirby characters.

 

[WaddleMatt]

Rick, Kine and Coo:

Chance - 0%

Their re-emergence in Star Allies was way too late. Before then they hadn't appeared in quite a while and wuld have to deal with Bandana Dee and Magolor.

Want - 20%

I mean, they are cute... But I find it weird how in Star Allies they just turn into each other and I feel that would happen here too. But their abilities in DL 2 and 3 provide quite the potential.

Noms: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Owl/Hamster/Fish Chance: 0%. They're more likely to be a part of Gooey's moveset, and Gooey himself is unlikely. I actually also believe these guys stand no chance for much of the same reason as Thwomp, except they're more of a serious candidate. They stand no chance against Bandana Dee, or Marx, or Adeleine, or Magolor. I wouldn't count on them against almost any other possible Kirby rep.

Want: 1%. I want them to be a part of Gooey's moveset, or an Assist Trophy, but they can stay out of the roster themselves.

Nominations: Unique Puzzle Game Rep x 5

 

[PeridotGX]

Rick, who is Kind and Cool.

chance: 3%. Bandana Dee is by far the most likely Kirby character, behind him are Marx, Adeline, Dark Matter and maybe Magalor. There's no room for the Animal Buddies. Also, maybe Sakurai wouldn't know how to work them?

Want: 35%. I like Kirby and they're fun in Star Alllies. There are characters I like more though, like BWD and Marx.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Dark Matter Trio

Chance: 1.5%
First off I don’t know how the **** they’d play. I assume they have a workable moveset since they’re in Star Allies, but I don’t care enough to look it up. Star Allies came out this year, and they used to be obscure as ****, so relevance won’t help them. Ballot support wasn’t there either. As Kirby reps go, we’ll get Bandanna Dee, Magolor, Marx, Dark Matter, Adeleine and probably Gooey before them.

Want: 75%
Sure? Would love them as ATs though.

DeMille prediction: 0.2%
Reimu Hakurei prediction: 0%

Nominations: SakiX5

 

[Sid-cada]

Dreamland 2 Animal Friends

Chance - 0.75% - HAL gave them a lot of love recently, with Dream Friends being the current cherry on top. Still, they are mostly obscure characters who didn't have an obvious move set until Dream Friends came around, and by then it is probably too late for them. Of course, there also that Waddle Dee in the room...

Want - 45% - I like them, but you all know that Dee goes first. Still, I want more Kirby and the feel kinda cool, so I can't be completely against them.


Nominations

Slime X5

 

[Mr. Nintendo]

Animal Buddies
Chance 1%
They're not Bandana Dee, if we get another Kirby newcomer, it has to be Bandana Dee. No exceptions
Want 10%
They're not Bandana Dee, if we get another Kirby newcomer, it has to be Bandana Dee. No exceptions, but they'd be OK as a 5th character. Not my first choice though

Nominate my first choice after Bandana Dee: Daroach x5

 

[TheCJBrine]

Hamster, Fish and Bird:

Chance: 1% - Sakurai seems hesitant to putting in a fourth Kirby newcomer, and if he decides to go ahead and add one, it's most-likely going to be Bandana Dee. Rick, Kine & Coo could probably happen afterwards or in the next Smash game, but I still wouldn't see them as very likely.

Want: 50% - I'd still like them, though I wouldn't really care much. I'm more interested in Dark Matter, Marx, Adeleine, Gooey, and Bandana Dee.

Nominations:

Steve? x5

 

[Al-kīmiyā']

Rick want: 0% (3-10*)

He's cute. He looks kind of like Hamtaro.

If this is only rating the trio, I abstain.

Nominations:

Merric x5

* Indicates percentage penalty for potentially taking a slot from most wanted characters

 

[Pacack]

Rick, Coo, and Kine

Chance: 1%
Extremely unlikely, but not impossible. I just can't see the trio appearing before Bandana Waddle Dee, Gooey, Dark Matter, or even Rick separate of the other two.

Want: 70%
Count me in, I guess. They're cute.

Nominations: x5 Historical Character

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

Let's take this time to give an early RIP to Toon Zelda and 9-Volt, some iconic first party names that came super close to making the purge cutoff, but haven't been getting any recent support at all...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Who, Who, and Who

Chance: 0%
Want: 0%

Kirby's one of those series that has a definite next in line based on popularity: Bandana Dee. And a next after him in Magolor. And a next after him in Marx. Add in other characters like Adeline, Dark Matter, Gooey...there really aren't many requests for these guys at all.

No major fan pull, not major characters - all of that spells no chance. And no thanks.

And I'll just echo everyone else on the 'how would this work' and call it a day. They should get regular trophies...assuming those are returning.

Nom: DLC costumes x5

 

[Smasher 101]

Rick, Coo, and Kine

Chance: 0.5%

They're not super notable and there was no real ballot support I know of, so there wouldn't have been too much of a reason to pick them prior to Star Allies, which more than likely came too late to influence the base roster. There's several other Kirby characters more likely to have priority in both base and DLC anyway, including Marx, who was part of the same wave as the trio.

Want: 5%

They're cute and I like them, but despite being a big Kirby fan I'm good on characters for right now. I also don't know if the trio is the best fit for Smash anyway, and additionally prefer every other Dream Friend we've gotten so far, as far as a couple others. They're just really low on my priority list.

Nominations: Saki x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Let's take this time to give an early RIP to Toon Zelda and 9-Volt, some iconic first party names that came super close to making the purge cutoff, but haven't been getting any recent support at all...

You might wanna let AirMac1 know about this...

 

[Artix]

Abstain. I don't know much about these guys.

Nominations:
Melemele Island Stage x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Rick, Coo & Kine

Chance: 1%
Geez. These guys represent a bygone era of Kirby games - ones that Sakurai didn't actually make even when he was still in HAL. They exist almost solely as historical trivia, having little notability on their own as either gaming icons or Kirby side characters. So it's the same problem as all the other post-Sakurai Kirby characters, except they're old enough to be forgotten about even during Melee.

Star Allies doesn't help their case as much when you realize Star Allies helps every Kirby candidate's case, especially Bandana Waddle Dee.

Want: 1%
About as low as you can choose regarding named Kirby characters, just barely being better than one of the franchise's generic enemies. There's just too many other more recurring and more interesting candidates to go for.


Prediction:
Demise: 1%
Reimu: 5%

Nominations
Sans (boss) x5
(Shame we're going to miss bone bros double day again.)

 

[DjinnandTonic]

Riku, Kai, and Kuu:
I just like that their names are literally Land, Sea, and Air.

Chance: 2%?
They are really low-tier on the list of the Kirby characters. Maybe they'd be good Assist Trophy options, though?

Want: 30%
But I still love them, they are adorable and they play well in Star Allies. I love a lot of other Kirby characters more, like my Apple-shaped Boi. But in a perfect world with tons more Smash characters, I'd be happy with them all getting in.

 

[Final Smash Gamer]

Abstaining on them.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

You might wanna let AirMac1 AirMac1 know about this...

Still unsure why, but okay.

AirMac1 : Know about this.

Let's take this time to give an early RIP to Toon Zelda and 9-Volt, some iconic first party names that came super close to making the purge cutoff, but haven't been getting any recent support at all...

 

[skylanders fan]

rick coo and kine
chance
yeah even I know there not gonna make it in as playable characters anytime soon. And I even want Bandana dee more and think he is more likely. But I could see them later on and maybe as DLC but even that is doubtful.
2%

want
100%
the idea of using 3 characters has been done like pokemon trainer but this can be different. I would even take these guys as AT just keep this guys relevant.

nominating earthworm jim x5

 

[DaUsername]

Rick, Morty, & Summer
Chance: 0.01%
As far as Kirby characters for Smash go, these characters wouldn't even be in the top 10. Mainly since they have almost no fan demand and they've been absent from the series until very recently. (And I'm pretty sure they weren't created by Sakurai.)
Want: 0%
You all already know who my most wanted Kirby character is. Hint: It's not these guys.

DeMille prediction: 0.5%
Reimu prediction: 0%
Noms: 9-Volt x5

 

[colder_than_ice]

Rick Kine Coo
Chance: 0% - I can’t think of a single scenario where this would make sense. It’s basically the equivalent of having Rambi, Expresso, Enguarde, and Winky from Donkey Kong Country becoming playable. Their triple character appearance in Kirby Star allies felt kind of forced (with them just being able to inexplicably turn into each other to perform different abilities), and that game also likely came out far too late for the base roster of SSBU. Also Bandanna Dee exists.
Want: 0% - I just simply have no interest in them, and would prefer Bandanna Dee. Perhaps they’d work better as assist trophies.

Nominations: Edelgard x5

 

[SupriceSupplies]

Guinea Pig, Borb, Fish luring someone into bestiality
Chance: 0.1%
Of all current Dream Friends in Star Allies, this trio is probably the least likely, aside for maybe one other that'll be in the next wave. And I can't imagine the majority of Dream Friends will actually stay prominent due to the simplistic nature of Kirby games, usually having just a few prominent characters. (Kirby + 1 or 2 sidekicks for that game (Usually Dedede, Meta Knight, or Bandana Dee in Modern Kirby) + Main antagonist(s).) And I can't really see a past one-off taking over the role of the sidekick unless either A: They're like Elline where they are there alongside one of the major characters (in Elline's case: Bandana Dee), or B: Shimomura (the director behind the Dark Matter Trilogy) suddenly takes up the role of director again over Kumazaki, but to my knowledge, his current whereabouts are unknown.

I really can't imagine that the Dream Friends or other one-offs like Prince Fluff (I can dream) and Elline are really going to stay relevant to the Kirby series outside of promotional art and merchandise or a sub-game role like Marx in Mass-Attack unless we suddenly get a new Air Ride game incorporating the vast majority of them, an RPG with a large cast of party members, or a hypothetical Star Allies 2. At least characters such as Marx, Adeleine, and the upcoming Magolor have their support going for them. But even then... the one who I don't need to name is a major roadblock for any other Kirby character due to his prominence and popularity alone.

Want: 10%
I haven't played Dream Land 2 or 3 yet, but I plan on doing so. That being said, while their team-up moveset from Star Allies is a strange way to hypothetically implement them... I wouldn't be against such a tag-team much unlike the Pokémon trainer.

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstain

Joker x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Animals

0% Chance

Bandana Dee exists. I can not see us getting a Kirby character if it is not him. That alone knocks these kiddos down. Magalor exists, who surprisingly has a fanbase in Japan. Since he is a Marx expy, lets talk about Marx. I would put literally every single star ally ahead of these three. They are not relevant, they are awkward to work with, and they are not even that popular.

10% Want

The cameo in Kirby 64 saves them for me. Otherwise, I would not care at all. They are very much z list in terms of Nintendo, and they are just kind of boring.

Nominating Sora Rerate x 5

GoodGrief741 cap off noms after this post.

Day over, double day. If anyone goes who? for either character you are not getting your nominations counted.

 

[Sari]

DeMille

Chance: 1%
Another Django-like character who debuted on an incredibly obscure GBA game and hasn’t been relevant in forever. Not popular enough and never had a title overseas. Only reason he I didn't give him 0% is because Sakurai apparently talked about him in the Brawl days.

Want: Abstain
Don’t know anything about him so I won’t comment. It’s pretty cool how his game was the basis for Superstar Saga though.

Abstaining completely on Reimu. I know Touhou is big but I don't know it's relation with Sakurai or Smash.

Nominations: Kat & Ana x5

 

[Final Smash Gamer]

Abstain on both.


Noms:
Break the Targets & Board the Platforms stage builder x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Demile
Chance: 0%
Characters this obscure have no chance of getting into Smash as playable, especially not Ultimate with it's limited newcomers Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't this character and Tomato adventure never been referenced in any way in any Smash game even as things as minor as a throphy/sticker, because I can't recall.

Want: 0%
Sorry, but his obscurity is the only thing I know about him. I haven't played Tomato Adventure and won't go out of my way to do. It's JP only apparently. Even if I did, I doubt I'd still support him.

2hu
Chance: 0.01 (only as DLC)
Touhou is sorta popular I guess... but it has very little ties to Nintendo compared to many Third parties. The only game on a Nintendo platform is a spin-off Switch game, which I've heard isn't even official. They've also appeared alongside Kirby characters in some rhythm drum game for the 3ds of which the name is escaping me. That's kinda all however. I don't see Reimu popping up that often when Smash is involved, even under the japanese Smash fans. Also while Touhou is sorta recognizable in Japan, that's not the case internationally. It's likely very low on Sakurai's list of eastern Third party franchises.

Want: 0%
My knowledge on Touhou is extremely limited. It's about little girls shooting millions of energy bullets at each other in space from what I know. It doesn't sound like my sort of thing.

The prince x3
Punch out newcomer x2